China export VAT rebate cuts reshape solar PV and battery exports

China Solar

China export VAT rebate cuts will raise the effective cost of exporting solar PV and batteries. China export VAT rebate cuts start on 1 April and tighten again in 2027. As a result, exporters face a faster push toward pricing discipline and higher-value products.

China will withdraw the export VAT rebate for solar photovoltaic products from 1 April. China supplies most global solar PV exports, so buyers will feel the shift quickly. Therefore, the policy targets over-expansion and the harsh price war across the sector.

Solar PV exporters face an immediate margin reset

Solar PV exporters will lose a rebate tailwind overnight. Producers will either accept lower margins or lift export prices where contracts allow. Meanwhile, weaker players may accelerate shutdowns, mergers, or capacity delays.

The change also encourages differentiation in higher-efficiency cells and modules. Companies will likely prioritize premium segments and branded channels. However, low-end volume exports will become harder to justify.

Battery exports move into a two-step phaseout

Battery export VAT rebates will fall to 6pc from 9pc between 1 April and 31 December 2026. The rebate will disappear from 1 January 2027. As a result, battery makers may adjust product mix, contract terms, and overseas inventory strategy.

China dominates battery materials and power battery supply, so the policy touches global EV and storage chains. Beijing also widened its export licensing scope to include BEVs from 1 January. Meanwhile, regulators are signaling stricter rules to standardize competition across batteries.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This policy looks like an industrial reset, not a trade accident. It pressures excess capacity and forces a quality-led export model. However, the biggest impact will land on low-margin suppliers first.

Gotion Slovakia battery plant anchors new EU battery supply hub

Gotion Slovakia battery plant

Gotion Slovakia battery plant construction has begun, marking a major step in Europe’s race for local EV cell capacity. The Gotion Slovakia battery plant will be the country’s first gigafactory and a key node in China–EU battery supply chains. As a result, the Gotion Slovakia battery plant positions Slovakia as a new player in Europe’s electrification map.

Gotion Slovakia battery plant targets EU gigafactory scale

The first phase of the Gotion Slovakia battery plant will add 20GWh a year of lithium-ion capacity. Gotion plans pilot production in 2026, with commercial volumes starting in 2027 and feeding customers across EU markets. This timing aligns with accelerating European EV and energy storage demand, as automakers seek diversified cell suppliers.

Meanwhile, the Surany facility will be Slovakia’s first battery gigafactory, strengthening Central Europe’s role as an automotive manufacturing corridor. Products will likely support both passenger EVs and stationary storage, given Gotion’s broad lithium-ion portfolio. Therefore, OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers in the EU gain another large-scale, non-European cell source inside the single market.

Chinese battery makers accelerate overseas footprint

Gotion has rapidly expanded outside China, with projects in Morocco, Thailand, Japan and the US adding to 20 global plants. The company targets 300GWh a year of installed capacity by 2025, including 100GWh outside China, to serve regionalised EV supply chains. However, its planned Michigan cathode and anode plant was cancelled after policy disagreements with local authorities.

As a result, Europe and emerging markets now absorb more of Gotion’s outbound investment as geopolitical trade risks rise. Chinese battery makers are building overseas to diversify customers, reduce tariff exposure and align with “local-for-local” industrial policies. These projects also hedge against potential future export controls on advanced battery materials and equipment.

Export controls delayed but policy risk remains

China has postponed planned export restrictions on certain high-end lithium batteries, key equipment, cathode materials and artificial graphite. The one-year delay followed talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump and removes an immediate brake on Chinese firms’ overseas expansion. However, the episode underscores how quickly regulation can reshape the global battery value chain.

In the near term, Gotion and its peers gain critical time to lock in projects and qualify products with Western OEMs. Longer term, governments may still tighten controls around strategic battery technologies and materials. Therefore, assets like the Gotion Slovakia battery plant will be increasingly valued for their on-shore, policy-resilient capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Gotion’s Slovakia project is another sign that gigafactory competition is shifting from pure cost to geopolitical resilience. For European automakers, Chinese-backed plants inside the EU offer cost-effective capacity but deepen strategic interdependence. The next question is whether Brussels and national governments will pair such investments with stronger upstream and recycling policies to secure the full battery value chain.

Japan EU battery recycling alliance aims to cut China dependence

Japan, EU battery alliance

Japan EU battery recycling alliance marks a strategic push to reduce reliance on China in battery materials. The new Japan EU battery recycling alliance brings together key industry groups to strengthen recycling, black mass handling and data sharing. As a result, the Japan EU battery recycling alliance targets a more resilient and transparent battery supply chain across both regions.

Japan EU battery recycling alliance links tech strength and market scale

The Japan EU battery recycling alliance is built around three core industry associations. Japan’s Battery Association for Supply Chain, the European Battery Alliance and Brussels based Recharge have signed an initial agreement. Together, they will cooperate on improving recycling processes, materials flows and supply chain governance.

The agreement covers information exchange on issues such as data sharing and regulatory interpretation. It also includes joint studies on black mass classification, a key bottleneck for cross border recycling flows. Black mass refers to shredded cathode material containing nickel, cobalt and lithium from spent batteries. Therefore, clear definitions and standards for black mass are critical for trade, permitting and ESG compliance.

Japanese officials highlight the importance of combining Japan’s technology strength with Europe’s market size. Japan offers advanced recycling technologies and process know how developed over decades of battery manufacturing. Meanwhile, Europe provides a rapidly growing battery market driven by EV mandates and energy storage deployment. This mix gives the Japan EU battery recycling alliance strong industrial foundations.

Reducing strategic exposure to China dominated battery materials

The Japan EU battery recycling alliance clearly responds to geopolitical supply concerns. Officials from Japan’s trade and industry ministry note that the current battery supply chain depends heavily on one country. Although unnamed, the reference clearly points to China’s dominance in processed lithium, nickel, cobalt and anode materials.

By deepening cooperation, Tokyo and Brussels aim to reduce vulnerability to export controls or political friction. Recycling and black mass trade can partially offset primary supply risks from Chinese refineries and processors. In addition, improved data sharing should help track origin, quality and ESG performance of recovered materials. As a result, the Japan EU battery recycling alliance supports compliance with emerging battery passport and due diligence rules.

The initiative also fits within the broader Japan EU competitiveness alliance launched in July. That framework seeks closer coordination on semiconductors, clean energy, critical minerals and industrial standards. Battery recycling now becomes a visible test case for how quickly the partnership can move from statements to practical projects.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This partnership underlines how recycling is moving from a niche activity to a core pillar of battery security strategy. If the Japan EU battery recycling alliance can harmonise black mass standards and data systems, it will lower barriers for serious cross regional recycling investment. Market participants should watch for pilot projects, joint ventures and regulatory tweaks that follow this initial, largely framework level agreement.

US Turkey LFP Battery Partnership Targets 7GWh Production by 2027

Our Next Energy

US Turkey LFP battery partnership emerged as Our Next Energy (ONE) contracted Turkish manufacturer Pomega Energy Storage Technologies to produce 7GWh of lithium iron phosphate battery cells. The strategic US Turkey LFP battery collaboration targets 2GWh production in 2026 escalating to 5GWh in 2027, supporting ONE's energy storage solutions for utility, commercial, and industrial customers while bridging manufacturing capacity before domestic US production commences.

Strategic Manufacturing Timeline Bridges International and Domestic Production

US Turkey LFP battery production will focus on ONE's 314Ah LFP battery cells manufactured at Pomega's Ankara facility. The Turkish facility maintains 3GWh installed capacity and currently undergoes qualification for global export markets. This partnership provides immediate manufacturing access while ONE develops its Michigan-based grid battery production line scheduled for 2027 operations.

Meanwhile, the collaboration enables ONE to meet near-term customer demands without delayed market entry. Founder and CEO Mujeeb Ijaz emphasized the partnership's role in supporting customer commitments during the transition to US-based manufacturing capabilities. The phased approach reduces market risks while ensuring continuous supply chain operations across international and domestic facilities.

Turkish Manufacturing Hub Supports Global Battery Supply Chains

However, Pomega's Ankara facility represents Turkey's growing position in global battery manufacturing ecosystems. The facility's 3GWh capacity and export qualification process demonstrate Turkish manufacturing capabilities in advanced energy storage technologies. Turkey's strategic geographic position provides advantageous access to European, Middle Eastern, and Asian markets for battery exports.

Therefore, the partnership leverages Turkey's industrial infrastructure while supporting ONE's expansion strategy across utility-scale energy storage markets. Turkish manufacturing costs and skilled workforce availability create competitive advantages for large-scale battery production. The collaboration also strengthens US-Turkey commercial relationships in critical technology sectors driving clean energy transitions.

Market Positioning for Utility-Scale Energy Storage Growth

Furthermore, the LFP battery production targets utility, commercial, and industrial energy storage applications experiencing rapid market expansion. Lithium iron phosphate technology offers safety and cost advantages compared to alternative battery chemistries, particularly for large-scale stationary storage installations. The 314Ah cell specification aligns with industry requirements for grid-scale energy storage systems.

As a result, ONE's dual-facility strategy positions the company competitively across North American and international markets during the critical 2026-2027 period. The Turkish production capacity provides flexibility while Michigan facility development progresses, ensuring market presence during peak demand growth. This geographic diversification reduces supply chain risks while maximizing market opportunities across multiple regions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

ONE's partnership with Turkish manufacturer Pomega exemplifies how US battery companies strategically leverage international manufacturing partnerships to bridge capacity gaps before domestic production scaling, particularly important as global LFP demand accelerates faster than domestic manufacturing development. The collaboration demonstrates Turkey's emerging role as a strategic manufacturing hub for critical battery technologies, positioning the country advantageously within global energy storage supply chains serving both European and American markets.

China's Lithium Tech Export Curbs Threaten EU Battery Industry

China's Lithium Battery

Key Technology Export Controls Put European Battery Industry on Edge

China's proposed restrictions on exporting key lithium processing technologies are sending shockwaves through the European Union's (EU) burgeoning battery industry. The proposed curbs target crucial equipment used in lithium extraction and battery material production, including lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery production equipment, cathode preparation technology, and direct-lithium-extraction (DLE) technology, particularly from spodumene and brines. A consultation period is open until February 1st, after which a final decision will be made.

Europe's Reliance on Chinese Technology Raises Concerns About Supply Chain Security

Industry experts warn the impact could be significant, especially for junior European lithium producers heavily reliant on Chinese technology. Companies like Northvolt, which recently announced job cuts and scaled back ambitions, highlight the vulnerability of the EU's current strategy. The restrictions could hinder the development of a robust, independent European battery supply chain.

Companies with In-House Technology See Opportunity Amidst Crisis

However, some companies are better positioned to weather the storm. Vulcan Energy Resources, an Australian company with operations in Europe, claims to have developed in-house absorption-type DLE technology, securing its supply chain and potentially offering solutions to other European players. Vulcan Energy Resources' executive chair, Francis Wedin, emphasized the strategic advantage of their technology, particularly given Goldman Sachs's preference for brine-based lithium extraction due to lower production costs.

European Lithium Market Faces Uncertainty and Calls for Action

Other voices in the European lithium market paint a more concerning picture. Viridian Lithium's chief commercial officer, Luc Pez, warned of potentially "extremely disruptive" consequences for the nascent ex-China battery supply chain. Pez criticized the lack of preparedness in Europe and the US, urging for accelerated reshoring of the battery supply chain and addressing regulatory inconsistencies within the EU. He highlighted the urgent need for Europe to establish concrete plans and achieve its targets in the face of increasing competition from China in the electric vehicle market.

The Future of European Electric Vehicle Market Hangs in the Balance

China's proposed export restrictions underscore the geopolitical complexities of the lithium market and the challenges facing Europe's ambitions in the electric vehicle sector. The move could significantly impact the development of the European electric vehicle market, as the EU aims to reduce its reliance on China for battery supply.

China's Graphite Market to Grow in 2025 Despite Oversupply and Geopolitical Challenges

China Graphite

China's graphite flake market is set to expand further in 2025, driven primarily by sustained demand from the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry. Despite challenges such as oversupply and geopolitical uncertainties, the market remains resilient due to the critical role of graphite in producing lithium-ion battery components like anodes.

The NEV industry, a major consumer of graphite, has grown exponentially in China over the past decade, supported by the country's decarbonization agenda. In 2023, NEV production reached 11.345 million units (up 35% year-on-year), with sales climbing 36% to 11.262 million units. By October 2023, NEVs accounted for 46.8% of China's auto market, up from 26% in 2022.

To meet rising demand, China's domestic graphite flake production increased from 930,000 tons in 2020 to 1.2 million tons in 2023. Major companies, such as China Minmetals Heilongjiang Graphite, have launched large-scale projects, including a 6 million tons/year graphite flake ore production complex. Additional capacity expansions are underway, including projects by Heilongjiang Ruitong, Heilongjiang Longda, and Inner Mongolia Hengyu.

Export Licensing Challenges and Geopolitical Headwinds

However, Beijing's introduction of export licensing controls on graphite products like flake and spherical graphite is curbing exports. From January to October 2023, Chinese graphite flake exports dropped 23% year-on-year to 49,647 tons. Exports to India plummeted to zero, compared with 9,379 tons in the same period last year, largely due to the new regulatory restrictions.

Exporters must now comply with stringent licensing procedures that require detailed documentation, including technical descriptions, end-user identity verification, and export contracts. This move aligns with China's broader export control legislation for dual-use items, which applies to goods that have both civilian and military applications.

China also reduced tax rebates for spherical graphite exports, an essential component in lithium-ion batteries, from 13% to 9%, effective December 1, 2023. Meanwhile, stricter inspections on US-bound graphite shipments reflect escalating trade tensions between the two countries. Policies such as the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act are further encouraging global battery manufacturers to diversify supply chains away from China.

Global Battery Producers Adapt

In response to export restrictions and potential US tariff hikes, Chinese battery manufacturers are increasing overseas investments. BTR, a major battery material producer, recently launched an 80,000 tons/year anode material plant in Indonesia and began building additional facilities in Morocco. Similarly, Shijiazhuang Shangtai is investing $154 million to establish a 50,000 tons/year anode material plant in Malaysia.

Such initiatives are helping companies hedge against geopolitical risks while ensuring a stable supply of raw materials for the growing global battery market.

Uncertain Political Climate

Political developments, such as a potential re-election of Donald Trump as US president, could further disrupt the global electric vehicle (EV) market. Trump's policies favor traditional energy sources and could lead to increased tariffs on lithium-ion batteries and related raw materials. This uncertainty underscores the importance of diversifying supply chains and expanding overseas production.

Japan-Australia Graphite Anode Supply Chain Targets Battery Security

Graphite

The Japan-Australia graphite anode supply chain is becoming a serious strategic project for battery materials security. Idemitsu, Marubeni, NSC, and Graphinex have agreed to develop a cross-border supply chain for natural graphite anode material. The plan links graphite mining in Queensland with refining and processing in Japan. As a result, the Japan-Australia graphite anode supply chain could reduce reliance on more concentrated supply routes.

This matters because graphite remains one of the most important battery raw materials. Demand continues to rise with electric vehicles and renewable energy storage. Japan has relied heavily on imports for graphite procurement. Therefore, the Japan-Australia graphite anode supply chain directly addresses a critical supply risk.

The industrial structure of the deal is also clear. Idemitsu and Graphinex will handle graphite extraction in Australia. Marubeni and NSC will focus on refining and processing in Japan. Consequently, the project is designed as a full upstream-to-midstream partnership rather than a simple trading agreement.

Natural Graphite Anode Material Is Becoming a Strategic Priority

Natural graphite anode material is now central to battery manufacturing competitiveness. Without secure graphite supply, downstream battery production becomes more vulnerable to trade shocks and export restrictions. That makes source diversification more important than ever. As a result, Japan is moving to secure a more stable anode material base.

China’s role helps explain the urgency. Japan wants alternative import sources as it reduces dependence on the world’s largest graphite producer and exporter. Export controls have made that concentration risk harder to ignore. Therefore, the new partnership reflects both industrial logic and geopolitical caution.

Idemitsu’s earlier investment in Graphinex also shows this strategy did not begin overnight. The companies have already been building ties around Australian graphite mining. This new agreement pushes that relationship into a more integrated supply chain phase. Meanwhile, it strengthens confidence that the project has real strategic intent.

Graphite Anode Plant in Japan Could Deepen Domestic Battery Capacity

The graphite anode plant in Japan is the most important downstream element of the plan. The companies are exploring a Japanese production site and aim to start operations in 2028. That would give Japan more domestic control over an essential battery input. Consequently, the graphite anode plant in Japan could become a meaningful industrial anchor.

The partnership also aligns with the wider Japan-Australia critical minerals agenda. Both countries have been working to deepen cooperation on energy security and supply chains. This project fits that framework well because graphite sits at the core of battery manufacturing. Therefore, the deal supports both national policy and commercial demand.

The broader market significance is clear. Battery supply chains are no longer judged only by cell production capacity. They are increasingly judged by who controls upstream and midstream materials. As a result, the Japan-Australia graphite anode supply chain could become a notable model for allied critical mineral cooperation.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This partnership matters because it targets one of the most overlooked battery bottlenecks: graphite anodes. Japan is not only seeking more raw material. It is trying to secure processing and manufacturing depth as well. If execution stays on track, this project could become an important example of how allied supply chains move beyond dependence and into real industrial coordination.

Pure Lithium Secures $300mn EXIM Support for US-Based Lithium Metal Battery Facility

Pure Lithium Corporation

Pure Lithium has received a $300 million Letter of Interest (LOI) from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) to support its planned industrial-scale lithium metal battery plant. If approved, the Pure Lithium EXIM loan would fall under EXIM’s “Make More in America” initiative aimed at rebuilding domestic manufacturing capacity and securing supply chains in strategic sectors like energy storage.

The proposed facility will use Pure Lithium’s proprietary “Brine to Battery” process, which directly converts brine into lithium metal anodes—eliminating graphite, cobalt, nickel, and manganese. This vertically integrated method enables a fully US-based battery supply chain, from raw material extraction to cell production. CEO Emilie Bodoin emphasized the project's potential to reshape global lithium battery sourcing models.

Disruptive Battery Chemistry Supports Strategic US Objectives

The Pure Lithium EXIM loan could accelerate commercialization of lithium metal vanadium oxide batteries, which offer higher energy density without relying on traditional cathode materials. This technology positions Pure Lithium at the forefront of post-Li-ion battery innovation, directly supporting the U.S. push for clean tech self-reliance.

Pure Lithium’s partnerships reinforce its vertically integrated vision. It sources lithium concentrate from E3 Lithium in Alberta, Canada, and collaborates with Saint-Gobain Ceramics to engineer water-blocking lithium-selective membranes—a key component in its novel extraction process.

EXIM Financing to Boost US Battery Supply Chain Resilience

EXIM’s Make More in America strategy supports projects that improve domestic industrial competitiveness in sectors facing global strategic risk. The Pure Lithium EXIM loan would directly address U.S. concerns over dependence on foreign-dominated battery material supply chains, especially China.

If finalized, the funding will catalyze Pure Lithium’s ability to scale manufacturing within U.S. borders while lowering barriers for next-generation battery adoption. This aligns with U.S. energy security goals and rising demand for alternative battery chemistries in defense, mobility, and grid storage sectors.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Pure Lithium EXIM loan represents a critical step in reshoring advanced battery manufacturing. As supply chain risks intensify and lithium metal demand grows, projects that fuse innovation with domestic sourcing will shape the next era of U.S. battery independence.

US–China Rare Earths Export Controls: Washington Seeks a Pause to Defuse Tariffs

US - China Rare Earths

US officials asked Beijing to pause US–China rare earths export controls to ease escalating trade tensions. They linked a pause to delaying planned tariff hikes. The US–China rare earths export controls debate now sits at the center of supply chain risk.

Tariff off-ramp hinges on rare earths pause

Treasury and trade leaders signaled willingness to de-escalate if China delays new restrictions. They also floated pushing back a 10 November tariff increase by 24 percentage points. However, recent threats of 100pc extra tariffs keep markets on edge. Meanwhile, China plans port fees and broader technology export limits. The US–China rare earths export controls standoff is pulling logistics and commodities into the crossfire.

Magnets, batteries, and allies in the line of fire

Rare earths sit upstream of EV motors, wind turbines, and defense systems. As a result, tighter controls could raise costs for NdFeB magnets and related alloys. Battery supply chains face parallel strain from high-end lithium battery curbs. US officials say coordination with Europe is essential. Yet transatlantic views diverge on sanctions and tariff tools. Therefore, procurement teams should model scenarios for price spikes and delivery delays.

Policy signals remain mixed from both capitals. Washington alternates between conciliatory and hard-line messages. Beijing appears ready to leverage pricing power and licensing timelines. In response, manufacturers should diversify magnet sources and qualify recycled material. They should also expand secondary refining and non-rare-earth motor options where feasible. These steps can cushion volatility if export licenses tighten further.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Expect policy brinkmanship to inject volatility across magnets, alloys, and battery metals. Procurement leaders should lock in optionality: dual-source magnets, expand recycling, and hedge tariff-exposed lanes. If a pause emerges, prices may ease briefly, but structural supply risk will persist.

Altmin CBL Lithium Refinery Expansion Strengthens Brazil’s Battery Materials Ambition

Altmin

Altmin CBL lithium refinery expansion marks an important step in Brazil lithium refining. Indian cathode producer Altmin will invest $40mn in Brazilian lithium company CBL to expand its Divisa Alegre refinery. The project will raise capacity to 6,000 t/yr from 2,000 t/yr. As a result, Altmin CBL lithium refinery expansion gives Brazil a stronger position in battery materials processing.

This investment matters because the product mix will change sharply toward battery use. Most of the current output is technical grade lithium carbonate. After the upgrade, 5,000 t/yr will be battery-grade lithium carbonate. Therefore, Brazil lithium refining is moving closer to higher-value chemical production.

The commercial structure is also significant. Altmin will receive a 33pc stake in CBL’s refinery through the investment. It also secured a 15-year offtake agreement for all battery-grade output from the upgraded plant. Consequently, Altmin CBL lithium refinery expansion links refining capacity directly to long-term cathode demand.

Brazil Lithium Refining Gains a Stronger Industrial Model

Brazil lithium refining gains more credibility because this is not a brand-new relationship. Altmin has been a client of CBL since 2019. The Indian firm already uses CBL lithium chemicals to produce lithium-ion battery cathodes. As a result, the expansion builds on an existing industrial partnership rather than a speculative deal.

The refinery will still keep a domestic role after the upgrade. Around 1,000 t/yr of output, including lithium hydroxide, will remain in Brazil. That material will continue serving pharmaceuticals, lubricants, ceramics, and glass. Therefore, the project supports both export-oriented battery supply and local industrial demand.

CBL also brings long operating history to the deal. Its refinery has been operating since 1991. That gives the company a more established refining base than many newer lithium projects. Meanwhile, the upgrade shows how older industrial assets can be repositioned for the battery economy.

Brazil Critical Minerals Processing Moves Further Up the Value Chain

Brazil critical minerals processing is the wider story behind this investment. CBL’s core business remains spodumene extraction at 50,000 t/yr, with an expansion under way to 115,000 t/yr. That means the company is strengthening both upstream mining and downstream refining. As a result, Altmin CBL lithium refinery expansion supports a more complete lithium value chain.

This matters for Brazil’s national industrial ambition. The country wants to become more than a raw materials exporter. It wants more local processing, more chemical upgrading, and stronger downstream industry. Therefore, Brazil lithium refining is becoming a strategic policy goal as much as a mining opportunity.

The deal also shows that foreign partners are willing to support that direction when supply and refining can be linked clearly. Altmin gets secure battery-grade lithium carbonate. Brazil gains more refining scale and a stronger role in global battery materials. Consequently, Brazil critical minerals processing is becoming more investable and more commercially relevant.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal matters because it moves Brazil closer to real battery chemicals production, not just spodumene supply. The most important point is not the $40mn alone. It is that Brazil is starting to attract capital tied to long-term downstream offtake, which is exactly how a stronger lithium value chain gets built.

Zimbabwe to Ban Lithium Concentrate Exports from 2027

Zimbabwe lithium Mining

Government Push for Domestic Processing

Zimbabwe will impose a ban on lithium concentrate exports starting 1 January 2027, according to mines minister Winston Chitando. The policy follows a 2022 ban on raw ore exports and seeks to encourage investment in local processing facilities and battery material plants. Zimbabwe holds Africa’s largest lithium reserves, with Chinese firms already dominating its mining sector.

Two new plants, backed by Sinomine and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, are under construction and expected to begin operations in 2027. These facilities will produce lithium sulphate, a key intermediate that can be refined into battery-grade lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate.

Chinese Investment and Global Market Implications

Chinese companies remain committed to Zimbabwe’s lithium sector despite lithium prices falling nearly 90% since 2022. This long-term strategy reflects Beijing’s broader effort to secure critical minerals for its electric vehicle and energy storage industries. The upcoming export ban will strengthen Zimbabwe’s role in global lithium supply chains by shifting the country toward value-added production.

Zimbabwe’s policy aligns with a growing African trend of restricting raw mineral exports to promote domestic industrialization. For instance, Gabon recently announced a manganese ore export ban from 2029, while Guinea, Mali, Tanzania, and the DRC have implemented similar measures for bauxite, gold, and cobalt.

Strategic Positioning in the Global Battery Market

By enforcing the lithium concentrate export ban, Zimbabwe is positioning itself as a future hub for processed battery materials rather than a raw material supplier. This policy could attract further downstream investment while also reshaping trade flows, especially for EV and renewable energy supply chains. However, success will depend on whether domestic refining capacity can keep pace with rising demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zimbabwe’s lithium export ban signals a decisive shift toward resource nationalism and value-added production. For global supply chains, this move underscores Africa’s emerging role in shaping critical mineral strategies. Investors and downstream users must adapt to a future where raw materials are less available, but refined products become central to supply security.

DRC Copper Output Growth Accelerates as Cobalt Exports Collapse

DRC Copper mining

DRC copper output growth strengthened in 2025 as major producers lifted volumes across the country. The Democratic Republic of Congo produced 3.4mn t of copper in 2025, up from 3.1mn t in 2024. That marks a 10pc annual increase. As a result, DRC copper output growth remains one of the most important supply stories in the global copper market.

This increase matters because the DRC is already one of the world’s key copper jurisdictions. Higher output from CMOC, Ivanhoe, and other major operators supported the national result. The country is becoming even more important to global copper supply. Therefore, DRC copper production 2025 confirms the DRC’s rising weight in the energy and industrial metals chain.

CMOC led the market last year. Its Tenke Fungurume mine produced 519,000t of copper, while Kisanfu added 228,000t. Kamoa-Kakula, the joint venture between Ivanhoe and Zijin, produced 400,000t. Consequently, DRC copper output growth is being driven by a concentrated group of very large operations.

DRC Copper Production 2025 Shows Strong Mine-Level Momentum

DRC copper production 2025 reflects strong mine-level performance from the country’s biggest operators. Large-scale projects continued to deliver higher volumes even as the market remained focused on geopolitical risk and resource nationalism. That gives the DRC a stronger position in global copper negotiations. As a result, copper is becoming an even more strategic pillar of the country’s mining economy.

This growth also improves the DRC’s relevance to western supply chains. Copper demand remains closely tied to electrification, grid buildout, and industrial investment. Countries and companies looking for large-scale copper supply cannot ignore the DRC. Therefore, DRC copper output growth is not only a mining statistic. It is a strategic supply-chain signal.

Congo Cobalt Export Ban Has Changed the Other Side of the Metals Story

Congo cobalt export ban created a very different picture for the country’s other key battery metal. Cobalt shipments fell by almost 80pc in 2025 because of the export restriction. The government imposed the ban after global oversupply drove cobalt prices to record lows. As a result, the DRC used policy intervention to support value rather than pure export volume.

This matters because the DRC remains the world’s largest cobalt producer. Cobalt is still important for electric vehicles and electronics, even as battery chemistry trends evolve. The government has since moved toward a quota system after the export ban. Therefore, Congo cobalt export ban shows that the DRC is willing to manage supply more actively when market conditions weaken.

The US-DRC minerals agreement adds another strategic layer. Officials said the December cooperation deal could improve investor confidence in minerals exploration. The agreement gives the United States preferential status to source critical minerals from the DRC and process them for global markets. Consequently, the DRC is trying to combine stronger copper growth with deeper geopolitical relevance.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The DRC now presents two very different metals stories at once. Copper is expanding through giant mines, while cobalt is being managed through policy restraint. That combination shows the country is no longer just a resource exporter. It is becoming a more active force in shaping how critical minerals reach the global market.

Australia Critical Mineral Export Earnings Set to Rise on Manganese and Rare Earths

Australia, Critical Mineral

Australia critical mineral export earnings will rise as manganese and rare earths scale up. The Office of the Chief Economist expects stronger output and higher export value. Australia critical mineral export earnings could reach A$5.9bn by FY2026–27. Therefore, project finance and offtake activity should intensify across key supply chains.

Manganese growth drives the next leg of export value

Australian manganese exports will anchor the earnings uplift over the next two years. Manganese production could reach 3.87mn tonnes in FY2026–27. Meanwhile, export earnings from manganese could rise to A$2.7bn by FY2026–27. As a result, steel and battery intermediates will gain a larger non-China supply option.

Higher volume alone will not secure margins. However, miners can improve pricing power with consistent chemistry and logistics reliability. Producers will also compete for shipping slots and port capacity. Therefore, downstream partners will likely seek longer contracts and inventory buffers.

US–Australia financing support reshapes investment timing

Australia rare earths exports should also rise as capacity expands. Rare earth export earnings could reach A$410mn by FY2026–27. Meanwhile, US-backed financing linked to an October critical minerals deal supports new project commitments. As a result, developers can accelerate feasibility work, construction planning, and processing partnerships.

Execution risk remains the key variable. However, metallurgical complexity and separation capacity often slow rare earth ramp-ups. Companies that secure reagents, power, and skilled labor will scale faster. Therefore, integrated processing plans will attract the strongest capital support.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Australia is building a practical path toward higher-value critical minerals exports. However, earnings growth will depend on processing capacity, not just mined tonnes. The winners will pair secure finance with repeatable operating performance.

Evion to Export Expandable Graphite to Europe and Double Production Capacity

Evion

Evion, an Australian graphite mining company, is set to export 400 tons of expandable graphite to Europe during the first quarter of 2025. The exports will come from its joint venture facility, Panthera Graphite Technologies, in Pune, India, which began production in November and December 2024. The company plans to double its production capacity by the end of the year to meet growing global demand.

Production Growth and Market Strategy

Evion's Panthera Graphite Technologies joint venture, in partnership with Metachem Manufacturing, has already produced high-value expandable graphite for immediate export. According to Evion’s January 16 presentation, the company remains on track to complete its first 400-ton shipment to Europe by March.

To secure steady production over the next six months, Evion has 500 tons of graphite concentrate on-site, purchased on favorable terms in November 2024. This stockpile ensures stable pricing and supply certainty for the company’s ongoing operations.

Pricing, Cost Efficiency, and Expansion Plans

Panthera has locked in first-quarter pricing between $3,000-$3,300 per ton FOB, with expectations of a 10% price increase for second- and third-quarter sales. Production costs range between $1,500-$1,750 per ton, and the company sees potential for short-term cost savings.

Evion is executing a three-stage expansion plan:

• Stage 1: Current production of 2,000-2,500 tons per year

• Stage 2: Expansion to 4,000-4,500 tons per year by end of 2025

• Stage 3: Full-scale production of 10,000 tons per year by 2026-2027

If successful, Panthera will become one of the largest producers of expandable graphite outside of China, strengthening its position in key markets such as Europe, Japan, and the U.S. This strategy aligns with the global supply shift following China's export ban on artificial graphite in December 2023.

Future Expansion in Battery and EV Markets

Beyond expandable graphite, Evion is advancing its Maniry project in Madagascar and exploring plans to establish a battery anode materials plant in Germany. This facility would process fine flake graphite from Maniry into uncoated spherical purified graphite, serving the lithium-ion battery and EV sectors. The company is currently negotiating financing, offtake agreements, and potential locations for the plant.

Expandable graphite is a crucial material for industries such as electric vehicles (EVs), aerospace, energy storage, and electronics. As global demand rises, Evion's strategic investments position it as a key supplier for the fast-growing graphite market.

Indonesian Cobalt Production Capacity Set to Double by 2027

Indonesian Cobalt

Indonesian cobalt production capacity will more than double to 114,000 tonnes by 2027 from 55,000 tonnes in 2024, according to National Economic Council member Septian Hario Seto. The expansion comes from Indonesia's high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) operations, which process nickel laterite ores to extract both nickel and cobalt. However, Indonesian cobalt production capacity growth will likely plateau after 2027 due to rising project costs and slower-than-expected nickel consumption growth.

HPAL Operations Drive Cobalt Output Growth Despite Rising Costs

Indonesia's cobalt capacity expansion relies heavily on HPAL technology, which extracts cobalt as a byproduct of nickel processing operations. China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Xu Aidong confirmed that capacity increases will probably stabilize given mounting economic pressures. Meanwhile, rising sulfur prices used in hydrometallurgical production lines are increasing HPAL project costs significantly.

Mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production maintains 30-40% profit margins even with nickel prices around $15,000 per tonne, partly due to cobalt content value. Indonesia exported nearly 1.56 million tonnes of MHP last year, with cobalt exports reaching approximately 44,350 tonnes. Therefore, Indonesian cobalt production remains economically viable despite commodity price volatility.

DRC Export Ban Creates Market Uncertainty and Technology Shifts

The Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt export ban threatens to drive prices higher while potentially reducing long-term cobalt demand through technology adaptation. Seto warned that sustained export restrictions could backfire by accelerating battery chemistry changes to reduce cobalt content. As a result, the industry witnessed massive adoption of nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) 811 technology during 2017-2018 price spikes.

Indonesia processes MHP directly into precursors without crystallizing nickel sulfate first, streamlining production efficiency and reducing costs. The country views cobalt as inseparable from nickel production rather than an independent mineral resource. However, Indonesia recognizes its responsibility as a major producer to ensure reliable global supply chains.

Seto emphasized that Indonesia's position on nickel mirrors the DRC's influence on cobalt markets, requiring careful market management. Major producers must balance supply control with market reliability to avoid being perceived as unreliable suppliers. Consequently, both countries face pressure to maintain sufficient global supply while maximizing domestic value addition.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia's strategic approach to cobalt as a nickel byproduct positions the country advantageously in global battery supply chains while the DRC's export restrictions create market uncertainty. The doubling of Indonesian cobalt production capacity by 2027 could provide crucial supply diversification for battery manufacturers seeking alternatives to DRC sources, though technology shifts toward lower-cobalt chemistries may limit long-term demand growth.

DRC Cobalt Supply Dynamics Shift as US-China Competition Deepens

DRC Cobalt

DRC cobalt supply dynamics are changing as geopolitical competition reshapes control over the country’s mineral flows. The Democratic Republic of Congo produced around 205,000t of cobalt in 2025. Chinese companies accounted for about 63pc of that output. As a result, DRC cobalt supply dynamics now sit at the center of a wider US-China critical minerals contest.

This shift matters because the DRC remains the world’s most important cobalt feedstock source. For years, most Congolese cobalt moved toward Chinese refiners and battery material producers. That pattern is now facing pressure from export controls, quota systems, and new western-backed supply initiatives. Therefore, DRC cobalt supply dynamics are no longer defined by mining alone.

The policy environment is also changing quickly. The DRC suspended cobalt feedstock exports in 2025 before moving to a quota system for 2026 and 2027. Only 96,600 t/yr of cobalt feedstock will be authorized for export under the new structure. Consequently, DRC cobalt exports are becoming more managed and more strategic.

US-DRC Critical Minerals Partnership Is Challenging China’s Dominance

The US-DRC critical minerals partnership is beginning to challenge China’s dominant position in the sector. The proposed Orion investment in Glencore’s Kamoto and Mutanda mines could give the US-backed group direct board access and more influence over metal flows. That would create a new route for western buyers. As a result, DRC cobalt supply dynamics may become less concentrated around China.

Other moves reinforce that trend. Project Vault, the planned US critical minerals stockpile, shows Washington wants more control over future cobalt supply. The first EGC and Trafigura copper-cobalt cargoes through the Lobito corridor are also heading to US customers. Therefore, the US-DRC critical minerals partnership is now moving from policy language to physical supply.

This does not mean China is losing its position overnight. Around 90pc of DRC cobalt feedstock has typically been shipped to China. Chinese miners and traders still hold enormous influence across the country’s output base. Meanwhile, the new quota system still leaves Chinese firms with a large share of the authorized export volume.

DRC Cobalt Exports Could Tighten Further as Processing Competition Rises

DRC cobalt exports may tighten further because the new quota system limits available material while demand for non-Chinese supply grows. Feedstock availability was already restricted by the earlier export suspension. That tightness now meets new competition from western stockpiling and rerouting efforts. Consequently, DRC cobalt supply dynamics could become more constrained in 2026.

Indonesia adds another layer to the story. Cobalt output growth there may slow if nickel ore quotas are cut, because Indonesian cobalt is a by-product of nickel. Recycled cobalt and mixed hydroxide precipitate supply are also unlikely to fully close the gap. Therefore, global cobalt feedstock availability may stay tighter than many buyers expect.

China is also preparing its response. The removal of export rebates for ternary cathode materials and precursors suggests Beijing may increasingly favor domestic value retention. If feedstock tightens further, China may prioritize its own battery chain over overseas buyers. As a result, DRC cobalt exports are becoming part of a broader competition over who controls refined materials, not just mine output.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The cobalt market is entering a more political phase. The DRC is still the core supplier, but the direction of its exports is becoming more contested. If quotas remain tight and western buyers gain more access, cobalt may become less about volume growth and more about strategic allocation.

Argentina Targets $30 Billion in Annual Critical Mineral Exports

Critical Mineral

Copper and lithium to anchor Argentina’s mining surge, as foreign investors drive upstream battery-grade expansion.

Argentina aims to export $30 billion worth of critical minerals annually within the next five to seven years, according to Vice Minister of Energy and Mining Daniel Gonzalez. Speaking at CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston, Gonzalez said the forecast hinges on lithium and copper, the country’s two most strategic resources.

The projection reflects Argentina’s emergence as a global hub for lithium production, with foreign-backed projects advancing steadily. Gonzalez emphasized the diversity of investment sources, including China, France, the UK, and the United States.

Lithium Sector Expands with Global Backing

Argentina currently hosts six operational lithium projects. Notable investors include Ganfeng Lithium (China), Eramet (France), Rio Tinto (UK-Australia), and Arcadium Lithium (US), recently acquired by Rio Tinto.

“There are no restrictions on foreign ownership,” Gonzalez noted, signaling a business-friendly regulatory environment. Most projects use brine-based extraction and are vertically integrated up to the production of battery-grade lithium salts.

Processing Capacity Grows, But No Battery Manufacturing

While lithium conversion facilities are embedded in most projects, Gonzalez acknowledged Argentina still lacks domestic battery manufacturing.

“All of their projects go to battery grade… What we don’t have is battery manufacturing. I don’t think we will have, unfortunately,” he stated.

Still, Argentina’s battery-grade lithium output positions the country as a key upstream supplier to global energy storage and electric vehicle markets. With rising demand and favorable investor terms, the nation is poised to become a top-tier player in the critical minerals supply chain.

Gabon Manganese Export Ban Takes Effect in 2029

Gabon Manganese Mining

Gabon announced a complete Gabon manganese export ban on unrefined ore starting January 2029. The world's second-largest manganese producer aims to boost domestic processing and industrial capacity. This transformative Gabon manganese export ban follows similar African resource nationalism strategies.

Major Impact on Global Manganese Supply Chains

Gabon produces 4.6 million tonnes annually, representing 25% of global manganese output. China and the US face significant supply disruptions from this policy change. Meanwhile, the US imported 63% of its manganese from Gabon last year. The ban threatens established supply chains for steel and battery industries worldwide.

French mining giant Eramet, through subsidiary Comilog, dominates Gabon's manganese sector. The company operates existing downstream facilities producing silico-manganese and manganese metal. However, current utilization remains low with only 18,000 tonnes exported in 2024. Comilog employs over 3,300 people locally, making workforce considerations critical.

African Resource Nationalism Accelerates

Several African nations now restrict raw material exports to capture value domestically. Guinea banned bauxite exports while Zimbabwe restricted lithium ore shipments recently. Furthermore, Mali and Tanzania implemented gold export restrictions this year. Therefore, the Gabon manganese export ban represents broader continental industrial ambitions.

President Brice Oligui Nguema emphasizes increased state revenues through downstream processing. Moreover, this strategy requires massive investment in new manganese alloy production capacity. As a result, international miners must develop processing plants or exit Gabon entirely. The five-year transition period allows stakeholders to adjust operations accordingly.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Gabon's 2029 manganese export ban creates immediate pressure on Western supply chains already strained by geopolitical tensions. With China controlling most manganese processing capacity globally, this move could paradoxically strengthen Beijing's market position unless Western nations rapidly develop alternative processing hubs. Eramet's underutilized facilities suggest the technical and economic challenges of African beneficiation remain substantial.

Lyten Secures $650 Million to Expand U.S. Lithium-Sulfur Battery Production

Lyten

U.S.-based battery startup Lyten has secured a funding package of up to $650 million to accelerate the expansion of lithium-sulfur (Li-S) battery manufacturing and supply its technology to international markets. The financing, provided through multiple Letters of Interest from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM), is part of an initiative to strengthen economic ties in the Caribbean.

Lyten is actively pursuing agreements with international partners, including Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) for battery energy storage systems in Trinidad and Tobago and other Caribbean nations. These agreements aim to fully utilize the production capacity of its newly acquired Northvolt cell manufacturing facility.

Expansion Plans in the U.S. Market

In November 2024, Lyten acquired Northvolt’s manufacturing plant in San Leandro, California, which is set to begin commercial production in the second half of 2025. This facility will play a crucial role in scaling up lithium-sulfur battery production, a promising alternative to lithium-ion technology due to its higher energy density and cobalt-free composition.

Additionally, Lyten recently announced the location for its $1 billion lithium-sulfur battery gigafactory in Reno, Nevada. The plant, expected to begin operations in 2027, will have an initial production capacity of 10 GWh per year, further positioning Lyten as a key player in the next-generation battery market.

China's Lithium Prices Fall to 4-Year Low Amid Oversupply and Trade Tensions

China's Lithium

Oversupply and weaker export demand push lithium carbonate prices to multi-year lows in China

Chinese Lithium Carbonate Prices Plunge on Oversupply

Chinese lithium carbonate prices have dropped to a four-year low due to rising supply and weaker global demand. Prices started declining after CATL resumed its Jianxiawo lithium lepidolite concentrate operation in early February 2025. This facility contributes 6% of China’s total LCE capacity, but the mine itself remains offline as CATL sources ore locally.

At the same time, China’s lithium carbonate imports surged by 48% year-on-year to 32,450 tonnes in January–February 2025. Chile accounted for 62% of these imports, followed by Argentina at 34% and South Korea at 3.2%. Chilean producers like SQM and US-based Albemarle are ramping up output, further intensifying supply pressure.

Demand Weakens Under Policy Shifts and Tariffs

Demand for lithium has softened after China revoked energy storage installation mandates for new energy projects in February 2025. This particularly affected lithium-iron-phosphate batteries, which rely heavily on lithium carbonate. Additionally, US import tariffs on Chinese lithium-ion batteries will hit 48.4% by January 2026, impacting export potential.

Despite a 59% year-on-year surge in lithium-ion battery exports in early 2025, much of it was front-loaded. Exporters rushed to ship products before anticipated US tariff hikes, with 26% of shipments headed to the US. However, market participants believe Chinese battery exports may decline sharply in the coming months.

Market Outlook and Price Forecast

As global supply continues to rise and demand remains subdued, prices are expected to dip further. Some analysts predict prices may hover around Yn70,000/tonne ex-works, unless a major inventory restock occurs. Producers are closely monitoring both tariff developments and restocking trends among downstream battery manufacturers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s lithium market is entering a new phase where global trade dynamics now rival domestic supply in pricing power. With inventory levels rising and policy uncertainty in key export markets, stakeholders must recalibrate demand forecasts and sourcing strategies.