Taseko Florence Copper Project Starts Cathode Ramp-Up in Arizona

Taseko

Taseko Florence copper project has started producing copper cathode in Arizona, giving Canadian producer Taseko Mines its first commercial metal from the US in-situ copper development. The project’s solvent extraction and electrowinning plant started operations in mid-February and produced 1.5mn lb, or about 680t, of copper cathode in the first quarter.

The Taseko Florence copper project is important because it uses in-situ copper recovery rather than conventional open-pit mining. The process leaches copper underground and recovers it through solution flows before producing cathode through solvent extraction and electrowinning.

The Taseko Florence copper project offers a different supply model for the US copper market. It can reduce upfront capital intensity compared with traditional mining, but it depends on careful control of underground leaching, solution movement, grades and environmental performance.

Taseko previously targeted 40mn-50mn lb of copper output from Florence in 2026. The company expects production to rise to 80mn lb in 2027 as the project moves through ramp-up.

Florence Adds US Cathode Capacity With Lower Mining Intensity

Florence’s first cathode production marks a key operational step for Taseko. The project is now moving from construction and commissioning into the early stage of commercial production.

The in-situ recovery model gives Florence strategic relevance. It avoids large-scale excavation and instead relies on controlled leaching below ground, which can reduce surface disturbance and capital needs.

However, the method also requires disciplined technical execution. Operators must manage solution chemistry, wellfield performance, recovery rates and environmental controls to ensure the process remains stable.

Florence’s output will come as refined copper demand becomes increasingly tied to electrification, grid investment, data centres, electric vehicles and domestic manufacturing. US cathode supply is strategically important because refined copper availability affects wire, cable, power equipment and industrial users.

The project’s cost exposure also looks partly protected in the near term. Taseko said Florence will not face the sharp recent rise in sulphuric acid prices because its acid supply is locked under a fixed-price contract for this year.

That protection matters. Sulphuric acid has become a more sensitive cost input for copper leaching operations because Middle East disruption and tighter sulphur flows have lifted market concerns. A fixed-price contract gives Florence more cost visibility during its early ramp-up.

Gibraltar Output Jumps as Diesel Costs Add Pressure

Taseko’s established Gibraltar mine in British Columbia also delivered a stronger first quarter. Copper output rose to 30mn lb, or about 13,600t, up 50% from a year earlier.

The increase was supported by steadier grades and better recoveries. This suggests Gibraltar benefited from improved operating performance rather than only stronger throughput.

Molybdenum output also rose sharply. Gibraltar produced 717,000 lb, or about 325t, of molybdenum in the first quarter, up 113% from a year earlier.

Molybdenum by-product output can improve mine economics because it adds revenue beyond copper. It also links Gibraltar to special steel, stainless steel, energy equipment and high-strength alloy demand.

Sales lagged production slightly because of shipping timing. This means some of the production benefit may flow through later, depending on shipment schedules and realized prices.

Cost pressure remains a risk. Taseko said higher diesel prices could add 10-15¢/lb to Gibraltar costs this year, equivalent to about $220-330/t.

Diesel exposure is important for open-pit mines because haulage, mobile equipment and site logistics rely heavily on fuel. If energy prices remain elevated, Gibraltar’s operating costs could rise even as production performance improves.

Taseko’s first-quarter update therefore shows two different copper stories. Florence is entering ramp-up as a new US cathode asset with fixed acid pricing, while Gibraltar is producing more copper and molybdenum but faces higher fuel-cost risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Taseko’s update shows how copper supply growth is increasingly tied to project type and cost exposure. Florence offers a lower-mining-intensity US cathode route, while Gibraltar highlights the continuing importance of grade, recovery and diesel costs in conventional copper mining.

Kamoa-Kakula Copper Output Falls as Ivanhoe Shifts Toward Smelter Recovery

Ivanhoe

Kamoa-Kakula copper output fell sharply in the first quarter as Ivanhoe Mines continued to recover from seismic damage at the Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The complex produced 61,906t of copper in concentrate, down 54% from 133,120t a year earlier.

The decline reflects the continuing effect of the May 2025 seismic shocks that forced Ivanhoe to shut, drain and rebuild the Kakula mine. The asset remains in a staged recovery process and has not yet returned to full production.

Kamoa-Kakula copper output now sits below earlier expectations, forcing Ivanhoe to lower its 2026 guidance to 290,000-330,000t from 380,000-420,000t. The company also cut its 2027 target to 380,000-420,000t from 500,000-540,000t, although it still expects output to exceed 500,000 t/yr from 2028.

The weaker concentrate output is important for the global copper market because Kamoa-Kakula is one of the most important growth assets in the DRC copper belt. Any delay in its recovery reduces near-term copper supply from a region that has become central to global mine growth.

Smelter Output and Acid Production Cushion the Disruption

Ivanhoe’s first-quarter results also showed a shift in the site’s operating profile. While copper concentrate output fell sharply, the Kamoa-Kakula smelter produced 63,671t of anode during the quarter.

The company also produced 7,746t of copper in blister from the LCS smelter in Kolwezi. This shows that Ivanhoe is building more downstream processing capability even as underground mine recovery continues.

The smelter gives Kamoa-Kakula a strategic advantage in the DRC. Most producers in the African Copperbelt rely on sulphuric acid for leaching operations, while Kamoa-Kakula produces sulphuric acid as a byproduct.

The on-site copper smelter produced 117,871t of high-strength sulphuric acid in the first quarter. This has become more important because the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has raised concern over sulphur supply into African hydrometallurgical operations.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid availability can directly affect DRC copper production costs. Producers that rely on imported sulphur or purchased acid may face higher costs or operating constraints if Middle East disruptions persist.

Ivanhoe’s position is different. The company does not need sulphuric acid for its own main copper production route and can instead produce acid for regional demand. This could turn a regional input shortage into a commercial advantage.

The main external risk for Ivanhoe is diesel availability. Diesel remains important for on-site energy generation and logistics in the DRC. Ivanhoe has made advanced diesel purchases and implemented contingency measures to sustain operations.

The company also has a lower diesel exposure than many regional operators because it has access to 250MW of hydroelectric capacity. A further 60MW of solar power with battery storage is expected to come online soon, strengthening the site’s energy resilience.

Kipushi Zinc Growth Adds Diversification Despite Grid Instability

Ivanhoe’s Kipushi zinc-copper-lead-germanium mine delivered a stronger first-quarter result. The DRC mine produced a quarterly record of 65,044t of zinc in concentrate, up 52.2% from a year earlier and 5.9% from the previous quarter.

The result gives Ivanhoe an important diversification benefit while Kamoa-Kakula works through its recovery. Zinc concentrate output from Kipushi adds exposure to galvanizing, infrastructure, alloying and specialty metal supply chains.

Kipushi also carries strategic by-product relevance because the mine includes copper, lead and germanium. Germanium has become more important for semiconductors, fibre optics, infrared systems and defence applications.

However, Kipushi still faces infrastructure constraints. Ivanhoe said concentrator availability was affected by electrical grid instability, even as zinc output increased.

This highlights a wider challenge across the DRC mining sector. The country has high-grade resources and major growth potential, but reliable power, transport, reagents and logistics remain critical constraints.

For Kamoa-Kakula, the longer-term recovery depends on mine rebuilding, underground transport, smelter integration, acid market dynamics and energy reliability. The 2028 target of more than 500,000 t/yr remains achievable only if these systems stabilise together.

For the copper market, Ivanhoe’s first-quarter performance sends a mixed signal. Concentrate output remains sharply lower, but smelting and acid production are becoming more strategically valuable as regional supply chains face sulphur and fuel risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe’s first-quarter results show that Kamoa-Kakula is no longer just a copper volume story. Its smelter, sulphuric acid output and power mix could become strategic advantages in a DRC market exposed to reagent, fuel and logistics shocks.

NPI–Class I Nickel Spread Narrows as Metal Oversupply Pressures Prices

Nickel cathode

NPI–class I nickel spread narrowed sharply in March as persistent oversupply in the class I nickel market pushed metal prices lower, while nickel pig iron prices stayed supported by elevated production costs. The average spread fell to $2,975/t in March, down from the 2025 annual average of $3,696/t.

The narrower NPI–class I nickel spread shows how differently the two nickel markets are behaving. Class I nickel remains under pressure from high exchange stocks and weak absorption from battery and alloy users. NPI, by contrast, is being held up by Indonesian ore costs and a firmer production cost floor.

The current spread also discourages additional class I output from NPI conversion. Estimated conversion costs from NPI to class I nickel remain around $4,000/t, meaning producers using NPI as feedstock would face negative margins at current price levels.

This creates an important signal for the nickel supply chain. Oversupply is still weighing on refined metal, but high feedstock and processing costs are preventing prices from falling evenly across all nickel products.

Class I Nickel Oversupply Keeps Metal Prices Under Pressure

Class I nickel oversupply remains the main reason behind the compressed spread. London Metal Exchange nickel stocks reached 289,506t on 26 February, the highest level since May 2018.

Ample exchange inventory has pressured class I nickel prices and opened an import arbitrage window into China. China’s nickel imports rose by 18% in January-February as lower overseas prices made imported metal more attractive.

However, end-user demand has not been strong enough to absorb the surplus. Battery and alloy-sector consumption remained insufficient to clear the additional metal units, pushing Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel stocks higher.

SHFE nickel inventories rose to 65,764t on 10 April from 45,544t on 9 January. This inventory build shows that imports and domestic availability are running ahead of immediate consumption.

The oversupply problem is structural in the near term. New class I capacity has continued to emerge, while demand from stainless steel, batteries and specialty alloys has not grown fast enough to rebalance the market.

The NPI conversion route is therefore unattractive. When the NPI–class I nickel spread sits below conversion cost, producers have little incentive to turn NPI into refined metal. This helps prevent additional supply from that route, but it does not immediately remove existing class I oversupply.

NPI prices have been more resilient because they are tied closely to Indonesian ore economics. Indonesian nickel ore prices remain elevated and continue to trade above the government-mandated price floor.

Concerns over tight ore availability have supported feedstock values. This has limited NPI producers’ willingness to cut prices, even though stainless steel demand remains only average.

That cost floor is important. NPI is not rising because downstream demand is exceptionally strong. It is holding because ore, mining quotas and Indonesian pricing policy are preventing a deeper fall.

The result is a distorted market structure. Class I nickel is being pulled down by inventory pressure, while NPI is being supported by feedstock costs. This explains why the spread has narrowed despite weak overall nickel sentiment.

MHP and HPAL Costs Could Rebuild the Spread Over Time

Mixed hydroxide precipitate is becoming the more important cost driver for future class I nickel production. Much of the newly added class I capacity relies on MHP feedstock rather than NPI.

Integrated producers with their own Indonesian MHP capacity have a cost advantage. Their MHP production costs are estimated at around $13,000/t in nickel metal equivalent, with conversion costs from MHP to metal at roughly $3,000/t.

This places the total cost of class I production through the MHP route at about $16,000/t. That cost base can still support production for integrated operators, but it leaves less room for producers relying on third-party MHP.

The market problem is that MHP supply is not sufficient to meet all feedstock requirements for new class I capacity. This creates competition for MHP units and limits how much low-cost refined nickel can be produced through this route.

Cost pressure is also rising across HPAL operations. Middle East tensions have tightened sulphur availability and lifted sulphur prices, which directly affects MHP producers that rely on sulphuric acid-intensive processing.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid are central to HPAL economics. Any disruption to sulphur flows can raise operating costs, reduce margins or force producers to curtail output if acid availability becomes constrained.

Indonesia’s revised nickel ore pricing formula adds another layer of pressure. The new formula is expected to have a greater impact on ore consumed by HPAL projects than on ore used by rotary kiln electric furnace operations.

This is because HPAL ore often trades closer to official pricing levels, while RKEF ore used for NPI already trades at premiums well above the benchmark. As a result, HPAL producers may feel the revised HPM framework more directly.

Higher ore prices and higher taxes could lift MHP production costs. That would eventually raise the cost floor for class I nickel produced through the MHP route, especially for integrated producers that had previously enjoyed lower feedstock costs.

This cost inflation may support class I nickel prices over time. While current oversupply is weighing on metal values, producers cannot keep adding supply indefinitely if feedstock and conversion costs rise.

NPI prices are also likely to remain anchored by costs. Indonesian ore tightness, quota uncertainty and pricing reforms should continue to support NPI even if stainless steel demand stays moderate.

As MHP costs rise and NPI prices remain cost-supported, the NPI–class I nickel spread may widen back toward the $3,500-4,000/t range over time. That would restore a more normal relationship between feedstock products and refined metal.

However, the timing depends on inventory absorption. Class I nickel prices will struggle to recover strongly until exchange stocks stop rising and downstream demand improves.

For battery supply chains, the key issue is cost pass-through. If MHP and HPAL costs rise while class I prices remain weak, margins across nickel sulphate and cathode material chains could tighten.

For stainless steel producers, NPI resilience means raw material costs may remain sticky even without strong demand. This could limit margin recovery if finished stainless prices do not rise in parallel.

The nickel market is therefore entering a complex adjustment phase. Oversupply is pushing refined metal lower, while policy, ore availability, sulphur costs and HPAL economics are raising the cost floor beneath intermediate products.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The narrowing NPI–class I nickel spread is not a sign of healthy convergence. It reflects class I oversupply on one side and cost-protected NPI on the other. The next shift will likely come from rising HPAL and MHP costs, not from a sudden recovery in nickel demand.

Aluminum Dynamics Arizona Cast House Faces New Permit Challenge

Aluminum Dynamic

Aluminum Dynamics Arizona cast house development faces another potential delay after the Center for Biological Diversity petitioned the US Environmental Protection Agency to overturn the final state air permit for the planned facility in Benson, Arizona. The challenge adds fresh uncertainty to a project designed to feed Aluminum Dynamics’ rolling mill in Columbus, Mississippi.

The environmental group argues that the permit issued by the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality violates the federal Clean Air Act. It claims the permit does not adequately monitor air pollution and does not ensure compliance with toxic air pollution limits.

Aluminum Dynamics Arizona cast house construction can continue while the EPA reviews the petition because the permit remains enforceable during the deliberation period. However, the challenge could complicate the project’s timeline if the EPA accepts the petition and requires revisions.

EPA Review Could Affect Start-Up Timing

The EPA has 60 days to accept or reject the petition. If the agency grants the request, ADEQ would have 90 days from the ruling to revise the permit or permit record to meet EPA requirements.

The petition does not immediately stop construction. But the project remains in an early physical stage, with no structures built yet. Benson officials said the company has been carrying out ground-clearing work at the site.

The timing remains uncertain. Aluminum Dynamics, a subsidiary of Steel Dynamics, had previously indicated that it expected the facility to be ready by September or October after ADEQ proposed the final permit in mid-December. But when the company first came to Benson, it told local officials that construction would take at least 18 months.

The planned plant would have 150,000 t/yr of production capacity. It is intended to produce aluminum slab for the company’s downstream rolling operations, supporting beverage-can sheet production at the Columbus, Mississippi, mill.

Local Opposition Highlights Industrial Permitting Risk

Aluminum Dynamics Arizona cast house plans have already faced community resistance. The company moved the project to Benson after earlier opposition in Gila Bend, where residents raised concerns over water use, air pollution and odor.

Similar concerns have emerged in Benson. A local nonprofit, Health Over Wealth Benson, sued the city and Aluminum Dynamics after accusing the planning and zoning commission of exceeding its authority when it approved a conditional-use permit allowing the company to exceed the city’s 30ft building height limit.

That lawsuit was dismissed on 25 March after a Cochise County Superior Court judge found that the complainants lacked standing. However, the group has indicated it plans to appeal and also supported the Center for Biological Diversity’s EPA petition.

The dispute shows that aluminum recycling and cast house projects face more than commercial and technical hurdles. Even facilities tied to circular aluminum supply chains must manage local concerns over emissions, water, odor, traffic and land use.

For the US aluminum market, the project remains strategically relevant. The Benson site is located to draw used beverage can supply from the US west coast and Mexico, giving Aluminum Dynamics a potential feedstock advantage for recycled-content can sheet.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The ADI permit challenge shows that secondary aluminum growth still depends on local environmental acceptance. Recycled aluminum capacity may support lower-carbon supply chains, but permitting risk can still slow projects if communities question emissions, water use or industrial impacts.

Glencore Aluminum Recycling Stake Expands South Carolina Remelting Footprint

Aluminum Scrap

Glencore aluminum recycling exposure has expanded after the global commodities trading group acquired a 45% stake in a planned South Carolina aluminum facility. Alumicore will operate the plant and retain the remaining 55% interest.

The investment builds on Glencore’s earlier financial support for the recycling and remelting project. Those earlier investments were aimed at securing marketing rights for the plant’s future production.

Glencore aluminum recycling growth reflects rising interest in secondary aluminum supply in the US. Recycled aluminum can reduce energy intensity, support lower-carbon material demand, and improve feedstock optionality for manufacturers exposed to volatile primary aluminum markets.

Alumicore Platform Adds Recycling and Remelting Scale

The South Carolina site will become part of Alumicore’s wider recycling network. Glencore said the new plant, together with Alumicore’s operations in Monessen and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, will lift the company’s total recycling capacity to more than 120,000 t/yr.

Few details were disclosed about the planned facility near Charleston. However, the project appears focused on recycling and remelting, which are increasingly important parts of the North American aluminum value chain.

Aluminum remelting capacity gives processors a route to convert scrap into reusable material for downstream manufacturing. This is strategically relevant as automotive, packaging, construction, electrical and industrial customers look for lower-carbon aluminum inputs.

The marketing-rights element is also important. Glencore is not only taking an equity position; it is strengthening access to future metal flows from the facility. That fits the trading house’s broader strategy of combining physical assets, offtake control and scrap supply channels.

Charleston Area Becomes a Secondary Aluminum Growth Point

The deal also deepens Glencore’s footprint in South Carolina. The company previously entered a joint venture with nonferrous scrap recycler Zeb Metals in 2023 to develop an aluminum scrap and dross recycling operation around Charleston.

That earlier project and the Alumicore investment point to a regional strategy. Charleston offers logistics advantages, industrial demand access and a potential platform for collecting, processing and marketing secondary aluminum products.

Aluminum dross and scrap recycling are becoming more valuable as producers and traders try to capture more metal units from waste streams. Better recovery can reduce reliance on primary aluminum and support circular supply for domestic manufacturers.

For Glencore, the South Carolina investment strengthens its position in a market where recycled metal is becoming more strategic. For Alumicore, Glencore’s stake adds a global marketing partner with deep metals trading and supply-chain reach.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s investment shows that aluminum recycling is becoming a strategic materials business, not only a scrap trade. Control over remelting capacity, dross recovery and marketing rights will matter more as customers seek lower-carbon aluminum supply.

Energy Fuels Uranium Guidance Could Be Met by Midyear as White Mesa Output Accelerates

Energy Fuels

Energy Fuels uranium guidance could be reached by the end of June as the US producer completes its current ore-processing campaign at the White Mesa Mill in Utah. The company expects uranium oxide production to reach 1.6mn lb by midyear, within its full-year guidance range of 1.5mn-2.5mn lb.

Energy Fuels uranium guidance is significant because White Mesa is currently the only fully licensed and operating conventional uranium mill in the US. That gives the company a strategic position in domestic uranium supply at a time when western governments are trying to rebuild nuclear fuel and critical mineral capacity.

Energy Fuels uranium guidance also reflects stronger mine-to-mill performance from its conventional assets. The company is processing ore from the Pinyon Plain mine in Arizona and the La Sal Complex in Utah, with output expected to average more than 265,000 lb/month of finished uranium during the current campaign.

The company’s shares rose after the operational update, lifting its New York market capitalisation to about $3.6bn. But the stock remains lower year to date, showing that investors still want proof that production strength can translate into durable cash flow and diversified critical materials growth.

White Mesa Mill Strengthens US Uranium Supply Position

White Mesa’s performance is central to Energy Fuels’ role in the US uranium market. The company expects the current processing campaign to finish by the end of June, after which it plans to rebuild ore stockpiles before resuming processing in the fourth quarter.

The timing matters because uranium supply security has become more important for nuclear power, energy security and US strategic fuel planning. Conventional uranium mills are scarce in the US, so steady White Mesa operation gives Energy Fuels a domestic processing advantage that many developers do not have.

Energy Fuels also expects mining performance to improve in the second half of the year. Ore grades and contained uranium are projected to rise, while first-half contained U3O8 production in ore is expected at 750,000-850,000 lb.

The company expects White Mesa ore processing costs of $9-12/lb, near historic lows. Lower processing costs could strengthen margins if uranium prices remain supportive and mine output continues to improve.

This cost performance is especially important because the US uranium sector is still rebuilding after years of underinvestment. Higher grades, reliable ore feed and low processing costs can separate operating producers from companies that only hold development-stage resources.

Energy Fuels said its cost of sales should continue to decline in 2026. If that trend holds, the company could strengthen its position as the leading conventional US uranium producer while maintaining operational flexibility for later processing campaigns.

The midyear guidance achievement would not necessarily mean full-year production stops there. Instead, it would give the company more optionality for the second half, depending on ore availability, mine performance, market conditions and inventory strategy.

Rare Earth Upgrades Add Heavy Rare Earth Growth Path

Energy Fuels is also using White Mesa to build a rare earth separation platform alongside uranium. The mill processes natural monazite sand sourced globally and began commercial separation of rare earth elements two years ago, starting with neodymium-praseodymium.

The company has since added capability for heavy rare earths, including samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium and dysprosium. These materials are important for permanent magnets, defence systems, electronics, high-performance motors and clean-energy technologies.

Energy Fuels plans to begin further modifications to its existing Phase 1 rare earth circuits in July. The upgrades are designed to allow commercial production of heavy rare earths in addition to existing commercial quantities of NdPr.

This is strategically important because heavy rare earth supply remains highly concentrated. Dysprosium and terbium are especially critical for high-performance magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics and defence applications.

The planned modifications will also add a circuit to process uranium-bearing mixed rare earth carbonates from global mines, including material from ionic adsorption clay sources. Because these mixed rare earth carbonates can feed directly into solvent extraction separation, the new circuit could allow White Mesa to process uranium and separated rare earths simultaneously.

That dual-processing model is important. It could turn White Mesa from a uranium mill with rare earth exposure into a more integrated critical minerals facility. The ability to process multiple feedstocks could improve utilisation, diversify revenue and strengthen domestic supply-chain resilience.

Energy Fuels expects the modifications to become operational in late 2027 to early 2028. The company is also planning a Phase 2 expansion that could raise total rare earth capacity at White Mesa to nearly 6,300 t/yr.

Permitting for both the circuit modifications and Phase 2 expansion is proceeding on schedule, according to the company. If delivered, White Mesa could become one of the most important US platforms linking uranium recovery, monazite processing, NdPr separation and heavy rare earth production.

The broader implication is that Energy Fuels is positioning itself across two strategic supply chains at once. Uranium supports nuclear energy security, while rare earth separation supports magnets, defence, electrification and advanced manufacturing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Energy Fuels’ update shows why existing processing infrastructure is becoming strategically valuable in the US. White Mesa is not only a uranium asset; it could become a rare domestic bridge between nuclear fuel security and heavy rare earth separation.

Ascend Elements Bankruptcy Exposes Pressure in Battery Recycling Market

Ascend Elements

Ascend Elements bankruptcy filing shows how difficult the battery recycling business has become as electric vehicle adoption slows in the US and Europe. The US battery recycler has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and will use the court-supervised process to restructure liabilities while continuing normal operations.

Ascend Elements bankruptcy comes despite major commercial and government-backed support. The company said it had secured more than $2bn in commercial agreements and a $320mn grant from Poland, but these were not enough to overcome longstanding financial issues and outstanding liabilities.

The filing highlights a broader weakness in the battery recycling sector. Recyclers need steady end-of-life battery and production scrap feedstock, but slower EV growth has limited available material and made it harder to sell recovered products into battery supply chains.

Funding and Offtake Deals Failed to Offset Financial Pressure

Ascend had previously planned to develop cathode active material production in Hopkinsville, Kentucky. However, the company and the US Department of Energy agreed in March 2025 to cancel a $164mn grant for that project.

The company later received a $320mn grant from Poland in May 2025 to build a precursor cathode active material plant. That support showed continued policy interest in battery materials localization, especially in Europe.

Ascend also signed a five-year offtake agreement to supply Trafigura with 15,000t of lithium carbonate from 2027 to 2031. The agreement gave the company a future sales channel, but it did not solve its immediate balance-sheet pressure.

Slower EV Growth Weakens Recycling Economics

Ascend Elements bankruptcy reflects the timing problem facing battery recyclers. Many business models were built around rapid EV growth, rising battery scrap availability and strong demand for recycled lithium, nickel, cobalt and cathode materials.

But slower EV adoption has delayed feedstock growth and reduced market confidence. Without sufficient input material and reliable downstream demand, recyclers can struggle to operate at the scale needed to justify large processing and materials investments.

The pressure is not limited to Ascend. Texas-based recycler Ecobat is selling assets in the UK, France, Italy, Germany and Austria to focus on North America, showing that consolidation and retrenchment are spreading across the sector.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ascend Elements bankruptcy shows that battery recycling is strategically important but commercially unforgiving. The winners will be companies with secured feedstock, disciplined capital spending and customers ready to buy recycled battery materials at scale.

NioCorp Traxys Offtake Agreement Secures Elk Creek Critical Minerals Output

NioCorp Traxys

NioCorp Traxys offtake agreement has moved the Elk Creek project closer to commercial validation by covering the remaining planned production from the Nebraska critical minerals development. The non-binding agreement would give Traxys North America access to NioCorp’s remaining output during the project’s first 10 years of operations.

The agreement also includes a potential strategic investment of up to $30mn by Traxys in NioCorp. This would make Traxys a shareholder while supporting sales of critical minerals between large manufacturers and producers.

NioCorp Traxys offtake agreement is strategically important because Elk Creek is designed to produce ferro-niobium, scandium oxide, titanium products and rare earth materials. These materials are tied to aerospace, defense, automotive, energy, advanced alloys and high-performance manufacturing supply chains.

Elk Creek Output Gains Full Commercial Coverage

NioCorp has now commercially covered 100% of its planned production. The company plans to sell 50% of its ferro-niobium output to Thyssenkrupp at a discount to the Argus assessment and the remaining 50% to Traxys.

Traxys would also take 100% of NioCorp’s scandium, titanium and rare earth production for the first 10 years. This gives the project a clearer route to market across multiple strategic materials rather than relying on one product stream.

The offtake coverage addresses one of the key remaining due diligence items in the Export-Import Bank review of NioCorp’s proposed $800mn debt financing package. For critical minerals projects, financing confidence often depends on credible buyers, long-term offtake and realistic commercial channels.

Ferro-Niobium, Scandium and Rare Earths Add Strategic Value

NioCorp plans to produce 7,450 t/yr of ferro-niobium, 104 t/yr of scandium oxide and 12,063 t/yr of titanium products. Ferro-niobium is important for high-strength steels and specialty alloys, while scandium can improve aluminium alloy performance in aerospace and advanced manufacturing.

The Elk Creek resource also contains rare earth potential, including neodymium-praseodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide. These materials are critical for high-performance permanent magnets used in electric motors, defense systems, robotics, wind turbines and industrial automation.

NioCorp Traxys offtake agreement therefore links a US-based mineral project with a global trading platform capable of connecting output to strategic customers. That could strengthen the US critical minerals supply chain if Elk Creek moves through financing and into construction.

The Metalnomist Commentary

NioCorp’s agreement with Traxys shows that critical minerals projects need market architecture as much as geology. Elk Creek’s real value lies in combining niobium, scandium, titanium and rare earths into a financeable US supply-chain platform.

Goldman Sachs Copper Price Outlook Cut as 2026 Surplus Forecast Widens

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs copper price outlook has been lowered for 2026 as the bank expects weaker demand growth from the Middle East energy shock to outweigh stable supply assumptions. The bank now forecasts the global refined copper market will record a 490,000t surplus in 2026, up from its previous estimate of 380,000t.

Goldman Sachs copper price outlook for average 2026 copper prices was cut to $12,650/t from $12,850/t. The revision reflects a downgrade in expected global refined copper demand growth to 1.6% from 2%, based on the assumed effect of higher energy prices on world economic growth.

Goldman Sachs copper price outlook remains volatile in the near term because markets are still assessing the impact of the Iran conflict and potential disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. The bank expects prices to average $12,700/t in the second quarter under its base case, before drifting toward a medium-term fair value near $12,000/t later in 2026.

Energy Shock Weakens Near-Term Copper Demand

The main driver of Goldman’s downgrade is weaker macroeconomic demand rather than a change in mine or refined supply assumptions. The bank assumes the energy price shock will cut world real GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points, reducing copper demand growth accordingly.

Goldman estimates that a one percentage point slowdown in global real GDP growth typically reduces copper demand growth by around 0.9 percentage points. That relationship implies a larger inventory build and a softer price path than previously expected.

The bank expects ex-US copper balances to remain close to flat this year, but the global refined market is now expected to carry a larger surplus. This reinforces the near-term view that copper prices may face pressure if demand recovery slows or energy costs remain elevated.

Downside risk remains linked to the duration of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. If energy flows do not recover from mid-April as assumed, higher fuel prices could further weaken industrial activity, manufacturing demand and copper consumption.

DRC Sulphur Risk Could Narrow the Surplus

Goldman has not included direct Middle East-related supply disruption in its base-case forecast. However, the conflict could still affect copper production in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where some solvent extraction-electrowinning output depends on sulphur moving through Middle East trade routes.

The DRC accounts for about 15% of global copper mine production. The country reportedly holds up to three months of sulphuric acid inventories, which means a short disruption may have limited impact on copper supply.

A longer interruption would be more significant. If sulphur exports through Hormuz remain constrained, acid availability could tighten, leaching costs could rise and DRC copper output could fall. That would narrow the projected refined copper surplus and provide some support to prices.

Goldman maintained its longer-term bullish copper view despite the 2026 downgrade. The bank still expects copper to rise to $15,000/t by 2035, supported by constrained supply growth and stronger demand from grid and energy infrastructure, which it sees accounting for 60% of global copper demand growth to 2030.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Goldman’s revision shows that copper’s near-term risk is shifting from supply shortage to demand sensitivity. However, the long-term copper story remains tied to grids, electrification and energy security, where structural demand still looks stronger than the 2026 surplus headline suggests.

Cobre Panama Stockpiled Ore Approval Gives First Quantum Limited Copper Recovery Path

First Quantum

Cobre Panama stockpiled ore processing has been approved by Panama’s government, giving First Quantum Minerals a limited route to recover copper from material mined before the project was shut down. The approval allows removal, processing and export of stockpiled ore from the closed copper mine.

The site will process about 38mn t of stockpiled ore containing roughly 70,000t of recoverable copper. First Quantum said the work will use existing crushers, conveyors and flotation circuits, with initial processing running at about one-third of nameplate capacity.

Cobre Panama stockpiled ore processing does not restart mining. The company said the work will not involve new mining, drilling or blasting, making the approval a controlled processing decision rather than a full mine reopening.

Stockpile Treatment Reduces Environmental and Economic Pressure

The approval gives Panama and First Quantum a practical way to manage material already sitting at the site. Processing the stockpiled ore could reduce environmental risks linked to long-term storage while generating royalties and other payments for Panama.

First Quantum plans to spend about $250mn on preparation, mainly to rebuild inventories and supply chains. The company is also rehiring about 1,000 workers, raising the site workforce to around 3,000 across processing, maintenance, environmental work and logistics.

The move follows earlier permits to ship stranded copper concentrate and restart a 300MW coal plant at the site. Panama linked these steps to easing the economic impact of the mine’s closure.

Copper Supply Impact Remains Limited Without Mine Restart

Cobre Panama was a major global copper asset before its closure in 2023. The mine produced 331,000t of copper in its final year, equal to about 1.5% of global supply, before protests and a supreme court ruling forced the shutdown.

The closure removed close to 40% of First Quantum’s revenue, increasing the company’s dependence on copper operations in Zambia and smaller nickel and gold output. Processing Cobre Panama stockpiled ore will provide some near-term value, but it cannot replace the output of a fully operating mine.

First Quantum dropped a $20bn arbitration claim last year to allow talks with Panama’s government to resume. However, Panama has made clear that stockpile treatment does not resolve the mine’s long-term future. Any return to mining would require a new political and legal settlement.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Panama’s decision is a compromise between environmental management, economic recovery and political caution. Cobre Panama stockpiled ore processing may release some copper, but the real supply question remains whether one of the world’s major copper mines can ever return under a new legal framework.

GLE Alloys Stainless Nickel Yard to Open in Pennsylvania in May

GLE Scrap Metal

GLE Alloys stainless nickel yard development will give GLE Scrap Metal a dedicated platform for stainless steel and nickel processing in Pennsylvania. The full-service recycler plans to open the new non-ferrous yard in May through its newly created subsidiary, GLE Alloys.

The GLE Alloys stainless nickel yard is being built on 10 acres along the Monongahela River in Braddock. The site will include a dock for bulk barge loading, rail access, and about 80,000ft² of warehouse space.

The GLE Alloys stainless nickel yard strengthens GLE’s position in higher-value alloy scrap. Stainless steel and nickel scrap require more specialized sorting, handling, chemistry control, and logistics than ordinary ferrous scrap, making the new facility strategically relevant for mills, processors, and alloy consumers.

River, Rail and Warehouse Access Strengthen Scrap Logistics

The Braddock site’s logistics infrastructure is central to the project’s value. Barge loading on the Monongahela River gives GLE Alloys access to bulk movement, while rail access improves shipment flexibility for larger volumes.

The warehouse space also supports better material control. Stainless and nickel scrap often need segregation by grade, alloy family, and chemistry before shipment to consumers.

Braddock’s industrial location adds further relevance. The area is also home to US Steel’s Mon Valley blast furnace operations, placing GLE Alloys inside a long-established metals corridor with existing industrial infrastructure.

GLE Expands Beyond Regional Recycling Into Alloy Processing

GLE Scrap Metal already operates six recycling facilities in Florida and Michigan. The company also runs a copper wire processing plant in Ocoee, Florida, and has an aluminum wire and URD wire processing facility through sister company Mallin Companies in Kansas City.

The creation of GLE Alloys shows a more focused move into specialty scrap. Stainless steel and nickel-bearing materials are tied to stainless mills, superalloy producers, foundries, aerospace supply chains, energy equipment, and industrial manufacturing.

GLE has appointed James Merrills as commercial director and Tom Kaikis as operations director for the new subsidiary. Their stainless and nickel experience should support customer development, material sourcing, and operational discipline as the facility ramps up.

The Metalnomist Commentary

GLE’s Braddock investment shows that alloy scrap is becoming a more specialized and logistics-driven business. As nickel and stainless supply chains look for reliable secondary feedstock, yards with chemistry control, storage capacity, and multimodal transport will gain strategic value.

Indonesia Nickel Mining Quota Approval Raises Ore Supply Uncertainty

ESDM

Indonesia nickel mining quota approvals for 2026 have reached only 190mn-200mn t so far, leaving the market below the government’s earlier signalled target of 260mn-270mn t. The slower approval process has increased uncertainty over nickel ore availability and future smelter operating rates.

The approved volume remains far below the 379mn t quota granted for 2025. Indonesia had already been expected to cut this year’s RKAB quota by about one-third, but the current approved level is still tighter than many market participants expected.

Indonesia nickel mining quota uncertainty matters because the country remains the world’s dominant nickel supply hub. Any shortage of approved mining volumes could raise ore prices, reduce feedstock availability and pressure nickel pig iron, ferronickel and HPAL operations.

RKAB Delays Could Tighten Nickel Ore Availability

The RKAB approval process is moving more slowly than expected, creating operational uncertainty for miners and smelters. Companies without confirmed 2026 RKAB approvals must halt mining after the 31 March cut-off, unless new approvals are granted.

The ESDM previously allowed nickel firms to continue mining using up to 25% of their 2026 production plan until 31 March. That temporary mechanism helped avoid an immediate supply shock, but the expiration of the allowance now increases pressure on companies still waiting for approval.

Several mining firms plan to submit fresh applications for higher quotas, with reviews expected in July. This means Indonesia nickel mining quota volumes could still rise later in the year, but near-term ore availability remains exposed to administrative timing.

Sulphur and Fuel Risks Add Pressure to HPAL Operations

Indonesia’s nickel industry also faces external supply risks from fuel oil and sulphur disruptions linked to Middle East instability. The issue is especially important for HPAL plants, which rely heavily on sulphuric acid production and energy-intensive processing.

The Middle East supplies about 75% of Indonesia’s sulphur imports. If sulphur or fuel oil availability tightens, HPAL producers may face higher operating costs or even output curtailments.

Imports may offset part of the nickel ore quota shortfall, but market participants do not expect overseas material to fully meet smelter demand. Some producers may therefore face reduced operating rates if domestic quota approvals remain limited.

Indonesia is also considering tighter compliance rules. Tax compliance may become a requirement for RKAB submissions from 2027, although it remains unclear whether this will affect the 2026 process.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia nickel mining quota delays show that policy administration can become a direct supply risk in the nickel market. The bigger issue is whether Indonesia can balance resource control, smelter demand and HPAL feedstock security without creating avoidable price volatility.

Lygend Indonesian Nickel Output Drives Sharp Profit Growth in 2025

Lygend Indonesia

Lygend Indonesian nickel output drove a sharp increase in the company’s revenue and profit in 2025. China’s major nickel producer reported revenue of 40.24bn yuan, or about $5.85bn, up 379% from a year earlier.

Net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 61% to 2.85bn yuan. The improvement reflected higher production from Lygend’s Indonesian nickel operations and stronger cobalt prices after export controls in the Democratic Republic of Congo tightened the cobalt market.

Lygend Indonesian nickel output also strengthened the company’s position across both battery and stainless steel raw material chains. Its Indonesian assets produce mixed hydroxide precipitate, nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate and ferronickel, giving the company flexibility across demand cycles.

HPAL and RKEF Projects Lifted Nickel and Cobalt Volumes

Lygend’s Obi Island HPAL project operated at full capacity in 2025. The six-line facility produced 120,000t in nickel metal equivalent and 14,250t in cobalt metal equivalent during the year.

The HPAL project can produce mixed hydroxide precipitate, nickel sulphate or cobalt sulphate depending on market demand. This flexibility matters because battery materials markets can shift quickly between intermediate products and refined sulphate demand.

The company’s HJF phase I project also ran at nameplate capacity, producing 95,000t in nickel metal equivalent through rotary kiln electric furnace technology. Meanwhile, Lygend ramped up output at its KPS phase II project, which has nameplate capacity of 185,000 t/yr in nickel metal equivalent.

Cobalt Prices Helped Offset Rising Input Costs

Lygend benefited from higher cobalt prices because its MHP contains cobalt. The DRC’s cobalt export controls lifted cobalt market sentiment and increased the value of cobalt-bearing intermediates.

Cobalt prices more than doubled during 2025, rising to about $25/lb in December from around $11.5/lb in January. This gave Lygend additional revenue support from MHP sales.

The stronger cobalt contribution helped offset higher costs for sulphur, energy and other consumables. These inputs remain critical for HPAL operations, where sulphuric acid availability and cost can directly affect processing economics.

Lygend also received approval from Indonesia for sulphuric acid import quotas. This allows partial substitution of sulphur with sulphuric acid when needed, improving feedstock flexibility and supply chain resilience.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lygend’s 2025 results show how Indonesia has become the operating center of China-linked nickel growth. The company’s advantage now comes from scale, HPAL flexibility and cobalt exposure, but sulphuric acid supply will remain a key cost variable.

Titanium Prices Hold as Inventory Drawdown Limits Spot Buying

Titanium

Titanium prices held steady in Europe and the US over the past month as mills, forgers and OEMs continued to rely on inventories instead of placing larger new orders. The market remained under pressure from surplus melt capacity and slower demand for standard-quality titanium used in airframe structures.

US 6Al 4V ingot prices stayed at $10-10.75/lb fob domestic producer, with some spot purchases still taking place near $10/lb. Mills kept offers broadly stable below $11/lb, although at least one producer quoted above that level for larger orders.

Titanium prices also remained flat in Europe, with 6Al 4V ingot assessed at $19.50-21.50/kg du Rotterdam. Forgers continued to work through high inventories of mill products before committing to new intermediate material purchases.

Aerospace Inventory Drawdown Keeps Pressure on Standard Titanium

Aerospace demand remained uneven as Boeing and Airbus continued inventory drawdowns. This primarily affected standard-quality titanium used in airframe structures, where consumption has been slower than in higher-specification applications.

Surplus melt capacity kept pressure on ingot prices. Market participants said lead times for basic Grade 5 ingot were around eight to 10 weeks, while some producers could likely deliver within six weeks if pushed.

Demand was stronger in premium-quality ingot for engine applications. Defence and medical markets also showed pockets of resilience, giving titanium producers some support outside standard aerospace structures.

Sponge and Commercially Pure Titanium Markets Stay Stable

Titanium sponge contract prices also remained stable. TG100 grade sponge long-term contract prices were assessed at $11-12/kg du Rotterdam in March, in line with standing 2026 contracts.

Saudi Arabian producer ATTM continued to operate normally, despite wider Middle East conflict risks and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has affected regional freight routes and disrupted some metals supply chains, but no direct titanium sponge impact was reported.

Commercially pure titanium ingot prices were also unchanged. CP Grade 1 ingot held at $12-14/kg cif main port, while CP Grade 2 ingot stayed at $11.10-12/kg cif main port.

Buyers avoided finalising new contracts as they focused on reducing stocks. However, inventory clearing remains difficult because lower-cost Chinese material continues to compete aggressively in downstream industrial markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Titanium prices are stable, but the market is not yet strong. The real divide is between standard aerospace titanium, where inventories still weigh on demand, and premium-quality, defence and medical applications, where strategic consumption remains firmer.

Eastplats PGM Output More Than Tripled in 2025 as Chrome Production Surged

Eastplats

Eastplats PGM output more than tripled in 2025 as Eastern Platinum increased production from its South African platinum group metals and chrome operations. Total output of 6E PGMs rose to 24,365oz, up from 8,113oz in 2024.

The increase showed a stronger operational recovery at Eastplats after a low production base in the previous year. PGM concentrate production also rose by 59% on the year to 5,146t, supported by higher activity at the company’s Crocodile River Mine.

Eastplats PGM output growth was accompanied by a sharp rise in chrome concentrate production. Chrome concentrate output climbed to 82,120t in 2025, up 353% from 18,118t a year earlier, giving the company a broader production recovery across both PGMs and chrome.

Crocodile River Mine Supported Higher Production and Revenue

Crocodile River Mine became a key contributor to Eastplats’ improved production profile in 2025. Higher output and stronger sales helped the company increase mine operating income to $1.7mn, up 113% from 2024.

The fourth quarter also showed better operating momentum. Eastplats reduced its fourth-quarter net loss by almost 40% on the year to $7.5mn, mainly because of increased revenue from higher sales and stronger production at Crocodile River Mine.

However, the company still reported a full-year net loss of $18.4mn, compared with a $12.8mn loss in 2024. The wider loss reflected expenses tied to the Mareesburg project, an open-cut PGM mining development in northeastern South Africa.

The result shows the split between operational improvement and project-related financial pressure. Eastplats improved production and mine-level income, but development spending continued to weigh on bottom-line performance.

Zandfontein Ramp-Up Could Lift 2026 Run-of-Mine Volumes

Eastplats plans to ramp up its Zandfontein underground operation in 2026 after the initial restart phase became fully operational last month. The company also plans to increase run-of-mine production by 40,000 t/month in the first half of 2026.

This ramp-up could strengthen Eastplats PGM output if underground production stabilises and feeds consistent concentrate volumes. It could also improve operating leverage if higher volumes spread fixed costs across more material.

The chrome production increase also matters strategically. Chrome concentrate gives Eastplats additional exposure to stainless steel raw material markets, while PGMs remain linked to autocatalysts, hydrogen technologies, electronics, industrial catalysts and specialty applications.

For South Africa’s PGM sector, Eastplats’ growth shows that smaller producers can still improve output despite difficult industry conditions. However, profitability will depend on sustained production discipline, project cost control and market conditions for platinum, palladium, rhodium and chrome.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Eastplats’ 2025 results show a company moving from recovery toward ramp-up, but not yet into clear profitability. The next test will be whether Zandfontein can convert higher run-of-mine volumes into stronger cash generation without adding another layer of cost pressure.

Vale Copper Reserves Rise as Base Metals Strategy Shifts Toward Brownfield Growth

Vale

Vale copper reserves and resources increased in 2025 as Vale Base Metals expanded exploration drilling across Brazil and Canada. The company’s copper reserves and resources rose by 6% to 53mn t, while nickel reserves and resources increased by 13% to 14mn t.

The increase supports Vale’s strategy to convert known ore into future supply instead of relying mainly on harder-to-permit greenfield projects. The company aims to raise total reserves and resources by more than 20% by the end of 2027.

Vale copper reserves are especially important because the company plans to nearly double copper output by 2035. That target depends on extending mine life, upgrading existing districts, and using established infrastructure to bring new tonnes into production faster.

Carajas Remains Vale’s Fastest Route to New Copper Tonnes

Vale added new reserves at Bacaba in Brazil’s Carajas district and expanded resources across Sequeirinho, Mata, Cristalino and Paulo Afonso. These additions build on the mine life expansion programme announced in February 2025.

Carajas is strategically attractive because Vale already has mining infrastructure, logistics and operating knowledge in the region. This makes it one of the company’s most practical routes for adding copper supply without the delays often associated with new mining districts.

For the copper market, Vale copper reserves growth adds weight to Brazil’s role as a future supplier of energy transition metal. Copper demand from grids, electrification, renewable power and industrial infrastructure will require more brownfield and near-mine growth from established producers.

Canada Nickel Assets Extend Mine Life and Support Underground Studies

Vale also expanded resources at its Canadian nickel operations. Fresh tonnes at Sudbury in Ontario and Voisey’s Bay supported mine life extensions and new underground studies.

Sudbury reached its highest ore production since 2016 last year, reinforcing the value of long-life underground mining hubs in established jurisdictions. Voisey’s Bay also remains important to Vale’s nickel portfolio as battery and stainless steel demand continue to shape long-term market expectations.

The increase in Vale nickel resources strengthens the company’s ability to compete in battery materials and high-performance alloy supply chains. However, future output will depend on capital discipline, underground development, processing capacity and market conditions for nickel.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale’s reserve growth shows that major miners are prioritising brownfield expansion over risky frontier exploration. In copper and nickel, the fastest future supply may come from deeper work inside known districts rather than headline-grabbing new discoveries.

Sofia Med Copper Fabricator Secures EBRD Loan to Raise Recycled Metal Use

Sofia Med

Sofia Med copper fabricator has secured a €20 million loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to increase recycled metal use and reduce water waste at its Bulgarian operations. The financing supports Europe’s wider effort to strengthen domestic copper processing and improve resource efficiency.

The loan is also notable because it is the first EBRD financing in Bulgaria that allows the borrower to pay a lower interest rate if it meets green targets. These targets are linked to recycling and water efficiency, making the facility’s environmental performance part of its financing cost.

Sofia Med copper fabricator is owned by Greek metals group Viohalco and operates downstream rolling and extrusion lines. The company processes refined copper into tubes, sheets and profiles for industrial users.

Recycled Copper Becomes Strategic for European Fabricators

European copper fabricators are increasingly important because they sit close to final industrial demand. They convert refined copper and scrap into semi-finished products used in construction, power equipment, manufacturing, heating systems and infrastructure.

Sofia Med can raise the share of secondary metal in its feedstock if suitable scrap is available. This matters because recycled copper can reduce emissions, lower dependence on primary metal and support Europe’s circular economy goals.

However, Europe still exports large volumes of copper scrap. This limits local availability for refiners and fabricators, creating a policy challenge as Brussels tries to retain more strategic raw materials inside the region.

Brussels Pushes to Keep Copper Scrap in Europe

The loan comes as Brussels considers tighter export rules under its RESourceEU plan. The aim is to protect local supply of recyclable materials and support European processing capacity.

The EBRD and European Investment Bank are also backing projects across the copper value chain. Aurubis secured a €200 million EIB loan last September to expand its Pirdop tankhouse, showing that European institutions are targeting both refining and downstream fabrication.

The €20 million loan for Sofia Med is still only a limited part of the upgrades the site may need. Its impact will depend on how much copper scrap the company can secure and how quickly it can reduce water waste.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sofia Med’s loan shows that recycled copper is becoming part of Europe’s industrial security agenda. The next challenge is not only financing upgrades, but keeping enough copper scrap inside Europe to feed refiners and fabricators.

Silicon Photonics Capacity Expands as AI Data Centre Demand Accelerates

Silicon Photonics

Silicon photonics capacity is expanding rapidly as artificial intelligence data centres require faster, higher-bandwidth and lower-latency connections between processors. Semiconductor firms are increasing investment as SiPh technology moves from telecoms and enterprise networks into hyperscale AI infrastructure.

The shift reflects a structural change in data centre architecture. Large AI clusters need optical interconnects that can move massive volumes of data with lower energy consumption than traditional copper-based systems.

Silicon photonics capacity growth is therefore becoming a materials story as well as a semiconductor story. While silicon wafers form the base platform, high-performance SiPh components also rely on indium phosphide, gallium arsenide, gallium nitride, germanium compounds and, in some cases, lithium niobate.

AI Workloads Push Optical Interconnects Beyond Copper

AI workloads are increasing data centre scale and network complexity, forcing hyperscalers to adopt technologies that reduce latency and energy use per bit. This is accelerating the replacement of copper in high-speed data communications equipment.

Industry spending on data centre switches for AI back-end networks is now forecast to exceed $100 billion by 2030. The upgraded outlook reflects rising demand from agentic AI, physical AI, humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles and military systems.

This growth increases demand for optical transceivers, modulators, photodiodes, lasers and high-speed detection systems. These components are closely tied to minor metals and compound semiconductor materials that support faster optical transmission.

Tower and STMicroelectronics Scale SiPh Platforms

Tower Semiconductor is working with Coherent on high-speed data transmission using a silicon modulator built through a production-ready SiPh process. The work targets next-generation optical transceivers for AI data centre applications.

Tower is also investing heavily in silicon germanium products that support its SiPh platform. The company raised its 2026 capital expenditure budget for SiPh and silicon germanium by $270 million, in addition to the $650 million announced in late November.

STMicroelectronics is also expanding aggressively. The company plans to quadruple SiPh production capacity by 2027, supported by long-term capacity reservation commitments from customers.

STMicro recently entered high-volume production for its SiPh-based PIC100 platform. The platform is used by hyperscalers for optical interconnection in data centres and AI clusters, and it is designed to reduce signal loss while improving modulator, photodiode and chip-to-fibre performance.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Silicon photonics capacity is becoming a hidden bottleneck in AI infrastructure. As optical interconnects scale, demand for indium, gallium, germanium and lithium niobate-linked materials will become more strategically important to the semiconductor supply chain.

Global Refined Copper Market Recorded January Surplus as Scrap Output Rose

Copper Coil

Global refined copper market data showed a January surplus as higher mine production and stronger secondary output outweighed moderate demand growth. The market recorded a surplus of around 17,000t, down from about 60,000t in January a year earlier.

The surplus was estimated at around 16,000t after adjusting for changes in Chinese bonded stocks. This indicated that the global refined copper market remained broadly balanced, but rising inventories and limited demand momentum prevented a tighter supply picture.

The global refined copper market was supported by higher mine output in Peru and Mongolia, while stronger scrap-based refined production in China lifted secondary supply. However, disruptions in Chile, Indonesia and parts of the DRC continued to limit a broader recovery in primary supply.

Mine Growth and Secondary Production Offset Supply Disruptions

Global mine production increased by 2.2% on the year to about 1.92mn t in January. Peru’s output rose by 3%, supported by higher production at Antamina, Las Bambas, Antapaccay and Toromocho.

Mongolia delivered a much stronger increase of around 35% after the continued ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground project. This helped offset weaker output in Chile, where mine production fell by around 3%.

Indonesian production remained significantly lower after the 2025 mud rush incident at Grasberg. In the DRC, overall output rose by about 1% as solvent extraction and electrowinning growth offset a sharp decline in concentrate output linked to disruption at Kamoa.

Global refined copper production increased by around 1% to 2.43mn t. Primary production declined by 1.4% to 1.98mn t, while secondary production rose by about 11% to roughly 445,000t, mainly because of higher scrap-based production in China.

Inventories and Modest Demand Growth Limited Market Tightness

Global apparent refined copper usage rose by around 2.5% to about 2.41mn t in January. Demand growth was led by regions outside China, with Asia, the Middle East and north Africa increasing usage by about 4%.

Chinese apparent demand grew by around 1%, but net refined copper imports into China fell by 44%. This mattered because China accounted for 58% of global refined copper usage.

Inventory growth reinforced the perception of adequate supply. Global refined copper stocks reached around 1.93mn t by the end of January, while combined exchange inventories climbed to about 1.2mn t by the end of February, the highest level since March 2003.

The data showed that supply disruptions had not disappeared, but mine ramp-ups and stronger secondary copper production were enough to offset losses. As a result, the global refined copper market stayed balanced, with rising stocks limiting near-term bullish pressure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Copper’s January surplus showed that scrap and new mine capacity can still soften the impact of regional disruptions. The key question is whether rising inventories reflect temporary timing effects or weaker underlying demand in a market still waiting for stronger electrification-led consumption.