Cop 31 Electrification Target Could Reshape Global Power and Metals Demand

Cop 31

Cop 31 electrification target proposed by Turkey would lift electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035, from around 20% today. The IEA is urging countries to support the goal at the November climate summit in Antalya.

Cop 31 electrification target would place power systems at the centre of the next phase of global decarbonisation. Reaching the target would require substantial investment in generation, grids, storage and end-use electrification across transport, buildings and industry.

Cop 31 electrification target also carries major implications for metals demand. More electricity infrastructure would support long-term consumption of copper, aluminium, electrical steel, battery materials and other inputs used in transmission, storage and renewable generation.

The political challenge is financing. Developing countries warned that higher borrowing costs, limited technology access and weak capital availability could prevent them from participating in the transition at the same pace as wealthier economies.

Grid Investment and Finance Will Determine Delivery

Turkey proposed the 35% electrification goal during climate talks in Bonn. The IEA said the target is achievable and could become a major legacy of Cop 31 if governments reach agreement.

However, expanding electricity use requires far more than adding renewable generation. Countries need transmission lines, distribution networks, transformers, substations, storage systems and digital grid infrastructure.

That creates a significant industrial demand signal. Copper will be central to cables, transformers and electrical equipment, while aluminium will remain critical for transmission conductors and lightweight electrical applications.

Battery storage will also become more important as renewable penetration rises. This supports demand for lithium, graphite, copper and other battery materials, while alternative storage technologies could create additional demand for vanadium, zinc and other metals.

Developing economies face the biggest financing challenge. High borrowing costs can make power projects significantly more expensive even when renewable resources are strong.

Turkey and Australia therefore want finance to sit alongside electrification in the Cop 31 agenda. Ministers from Ethiopia, Colombia and other developing countries also stressed that implementation will depend on better access to capital and technology.

Without that support, electrification could widen industrial inequality. Countries with cheaper financing would build grids and clean power faster, while higher-risk markets could remain dependent on older infrastructure and more expensive energy.

Clean Power Source Will Decide Climate Impact

Electrification alone does not guarantee lower emissions. The climate benefit depends on how the additional electricity is generated.

Civil society groups and governments have warned that rising electricity consumption can still be supplied by coal, gas or other fossil fuels. That means the electrification target must be linked with clean generation expansion and fossil fuel transition policies.

The Powering Past Coal Alliance has called for governments to integrate electrification, clean power build-out and coal transition scenarios. It warned that rapid power demand growth could otherwise lock countries into new coal capacity.

Colombia also argued that faster renewable deployment is not enough without addressing the phase-out of fossil fuels. This debate will remain central to negotiations around the broader transition away from fossil energy.

For industrial supply chains, the distinction matters. A clean electrification pathway creates sustained demand for renewable generation, grids, batteries and low-carbon materials. A fossil-heavy pathway may still increase metals demand, but with a much weaker emissions benefit.

The 35% target therefore represents more than an energy consumption metric. It would influence capital allocation, power infrastructure planning and material demand across multiple sectors for the next decade.

The Metalnomist Commentary

A global electrification target would be a major structural driver for copper, aluminium, electrical steel and storage materials. But without affordable finance and clean generation, electrification could expand electricity demand faster than it reduces emissions.

Iluka Rare Earths Offtake Secures Automotive Demand for Eneabba Refinery

Iluka

Iluka rare earths offtake has moved into a binding agreement with an unnamed global automotive company, giving the Australian producer long-term demand visibility for magnet materials including neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium.

Iluka rare earths offtake will begin in 2028 and run for an initial four years under a take-or-pay structure. The agreement covers 1,200t of rare earth oxides, equal to about 10% of Iluka’s planned production over the period.

Iluka rare earths offtake is strategically important because it links future Australian rare earth output directly to the automotive magnet supply chain. The pricing structure also gives Iluka downside protection, with sales priced at the higher of minimum or market-linked values for each product.

The agreement strengthens the commercial case for Iluka’s Eneabba rare earths refinery in Western Australia, which is now more than 50% complete and scheduled for commissioning in mid-2027.

Take-or-Pay Structure Strengthens Project Bankability

The four-year take-or-pay structure gives Iluka greater revenue visibility ahead of Eneabba’s start-up. This is especially important in rare earth markets, where volatile prices and uncertain demand can complicate project financing.

The agreement covers both light and heavy rare earths. Neodymium and praseodymium are core inputs for NdFeB permanent magnets, while dysprosium and terbium improve magnet performance at elevated temperatures.

These materials are critical for electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, industrial motors, robotics and other high-performance applications. Automotive customers increasingly want long-term access to non-China rare earth supply.

The minimum-price mechanism is also important. It reduces exposure to severe price weakness and helps protect project economics against periods of market oversupply or aggressive Chinese pricing.

This model is becoming more common across strategic minerals. Buyers gain secure supply, while producers gain demand certainty and a clearer financing case.

Eneabba Builds Australia’s Downstream Rare Earth Position

Iluka’s 23,000 t/yr Eneabba refinery is central to Australia’s effort to move beyond mineral extraction and into rare earth separation and refining.

Export Finance Australia has confirmed access to a A$1.65bn non-recourse federal government loan for the project. The refinery’s total capital estimate remains at A$1.7bn-1.8bn.

The scale of government support shows how strategically important downstream rare earth processing has become. Australia has strong mineral resources, but long-term value depends on converting those resources into separated oxides that magnet and industrial customers can use.

Construction firm Civmec has been awarded work covering structural, mechanical, piping, electrical and instrumentation activities. With the project already more than halfway complete, execution risk is now shifting from financing toward construction, commissioning and product qualification.

If Eneabba starts on schedule, Iluka could become an important non-China supplier of both light and heavy rare earth oxides. The automotive offtake agreement gives the refinery an early anchor customer and strengthens its route to market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Iluka’s agreement shows that rare earth diversification is becoming commercially real when long-term offtake, price protection and government finance align. Eneabba’s strategic value lies in supplying qualified NdPr, dysprosium and terbium outside the China-dominated refining chain.

Brazil Flight Demand Hits New May Record as Domestic and International Traffic Grow

Brazil's flight

Brazil flight demand continued to expand in May, with domestic and international airlines carrying a combined 10.6mn passengers. The result marked Brazil’s fifth monthly passenger record this year and reinforced the strength of one of Latin America’s largest aviation markets.

Brazil flight demand rose across both domestic and international routes. Domestic airlines transported 8.3mn passengers, up 1.9% from May 2025 and the highest May volume in Brazilian aviation history.

Brazil flight demand measured by revenue passenger kilometres also increased by 2.5% year on year, while available seat kilometres rose by 2.8%. The figures show airlines are adding capacity broadly in line with passenger growth.

The trend is relevant beyond airlines. Sustained traffic growth supports aircraft utilisation, fleet expansion, maintenance demand and longer-term consumption of aerospace materials including aluminium, titanium and nickel-based alloys.

Domestic Traffic Supports Fleet and Maintenance Demand

Latam’s Brazilian subsidiary carried 3.3mn domestic passengers in May, up 5.3% from a year earlier. Its domestic market share increased to almost 40% from 38.5% in May 2025.

Gol held 31.5% of the domestic market, up from 30.4%, while Azul’s share declined to 28.7% from 31%. This shift shows that passenger growth is also reshaping competition among Brazil’s leading carriers.

Rising passenger volumes increase aircraft utilisation, which supports demand for maintenance, repair and overhaul services. Higher utilisation also accelerates component replacement cycles across engines, landing gear, structures and cabin systems.

For aerospace materials suppliers, this matters because growing flight activity supports recurring demand beyond new aircraft production. Titanium, aluminium, specialty steels and nickel superalloys are consumed through both original equipment manufacturing and aftermarket maintenance.

Brazil also has strategic significance because of Embraer’s domestic manufacturing base. Strong local aviation demand can support a broader aerospace ecosystem across aircraft production, components, maintenance and engineering services.

International Growth Adds to Brazil’s Aviation Momentum

International passenger traffic reached 2.2mn in May, up 4.8% from a year earlier and the highest volume recorded for the month.

International flight demand rose by 4.4% year on year, while capacity increased by 3.5%. Demand therefore grew faster than supply, suggesting firm utilisation of international routes.

Latam accounted for 21.8% of Brazil’s international flight demand and increased its international traffic by 15.7%. Tap followed with a 9.5% share, while Azul held 4.8%.

The expansion of international traffic strengthens Brazil’s role as a regional aviation hub. It also supports widebody aircraft utilisation, international maintenance networks and airport infrastructure investment.

For metals markets, aviation growth is important because aircraft manufacturing remains one of the highest-value demand sectors for titanium and nickel superalloys. Strong passenger traffic ultimately supports fleet replacement and expansion when airlines maintain confidence in future demand.

Brazil’s repeated passenger records therefore offer a positive signal for the wider aerospace supply chain. The immediate effect is stronger aircraft utilisation, while the longer-term implication is greater pressure for fleet capacity, maintenance and new aircraft deliveries.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brazil’s aviation growth is becoming an industrial signal as well as a transport story. Sustained passenger demand should support aircraft utilisation, MRO activity and longer-term aerospace metals consumption across Latin America.

Mantos Blancos Labor Agreement Reduces Supply Risk as Capstone Eyes Expansion

Capstone Copper

Mantos Blancos labor agreement has reduced near-term operating risk at Capstone Copper’s Chilean mine after both unions representing workers ratified new three-year collective deals. The agreement provides workforce stability as the company studies a meaningful expansion in sulfide milling capacity.

Mantos Blancos labor agreement is strategically important because the site produces copper cathode and remains part of Chile’s broader contribution to global refined copper supply. Labour stability supports production continuity at a time when copper markets remain sensitive to disruptions.

Mantos Blancos labor agreement covers a workforce of 2,928 people, including 1,106 employees and 1,822 contractors. The new deals give Capstone greater operating visibility over the next three years.

The mine has copper cathode production capacity of 60,000 t/yr. First-quarter production reached 10,501t, down 14% from 12,272t a year earlier.

Expansion Could Lift Mantos Blancos Throughput

Capstone is evaluating an increase in sulfide milling capacity at Mantos Blancos from 20,000 t/d to 27,000 t/d. The company filed an environmental permit application for the potential expansion last week.

The proposed increase would strengthen the mine’s ability to process sulfide ore and could improve longer-term copper output if approved and implemented successfully.

This matters because copper supply growth increasingly depends on expansions at existing mines rather than only new greenfield projects. Brownfield projects often have lower execution risk because infrastructure, workforce and operating systems are already in place.

However, the first-quarter production decline shows that current performance still needs attention. Output fell 14% year on year, leaving the mine below the pace implied by its nameplate cathode capacity.

The labour agreement removes one source of uncertainty, allowing management to focus on operational improvement, permitting and expansion planning.

Chile Labor Stability Supports Capstone’s Copper Strategy

Capstone has also secured labour stability at its Mantoverde mine in Chile. Earlier this year, the company reached a three-year collective bargaining agreement with a union representing about half of the workforce there.

Together, the agreements reduce labour-related supply risk across Capstone’s Chilean portfolio. That is important because prolonged strikes in Chile can have meaningful effects on mine output and concentrate availability.

Chile remains one of the world’s most important copper-producing countries, so workforce stability at individual mines has wider market relevance.

For Capstone, the next challenge is to convert that stability into production growth. Mantos Blancos needs stronger output, while the proposed milling expansion must move through environmental approval and capital execution.

The combination of labour certainty and expansion potential gives the company a stronger platform. But the market will still watch operating performance closely after the weaker first quarter.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Capstone has removed a key operating risk at Mantos Blancos just as it considers a larger sulfide milling footprint. The bigger question now is whether labour stability can translate into higher throughput and more reliable copper output.

EU Ferro-Titanium Imports Hit Highest Level Since 2024 as Russian Supply Dries Up

Ferro Titanium

EU ferro-titanium imports rose to their highest level in more than a year in the first quarter, supported by robust demand from steel mills and cored-wire producers. The increase also reflected a market shift as Russian receipts effectively disappeared and European suppliers captured more share.

EU ferro-titanium imports reached 8,431t in January-March, up 19% from a year earlier and 13% from the previous quarter. The total was the highest since the fourth quarter of 2024, when Russian material was still moving into the bloc in significant volumes.

EU ferro-titanium imports were concentrated in Estonia, Poland, Latvia and the UK. These destinations took a combined 5,119t, equal to 61% of the first-quarter total, up from 51% a year earlier.

The figures show how sanctions, scrap availability and steel-sector buying are reshaping the European ferro-titanium market. Demand has improved, but the supply base has changed sharply.

Sanctions Redirect Russian Ferro-Titanium Toward Asia

Russian ferro-titanium flows into Europe have effectively stopped since sanctions were imposed on Russian ferro-alloys in December 2024. That removed a major historical source of supply from the European market.

Before sanctions, the EU was still receiving 2,000-3,000 t/quarter of Russian ferro-titanium. Those flows helped lift imports to 11,661t in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Now, Russian material has shifted toward Asia. China has become the dominant buyer of Russian ferro-titanium, with imports from Russia rising to a record 3,855t in the first quarter, up from 816t a year earlier.

This shift matters because Europe still needs titanium units for steel and cored-wire production. Ferro-titanium is used to add titanium to steel, where it supports deoxidation, grain refinement and stabilisation in selected grades.

Market participants have said some Russian material may still be reaching Europe through third countries in circumvention of sanctions. That claim highlights the continuing importance of origin control, documentation and compliance in ferro-alloy trade.

Non-EU imports, excluding the UK, reached 1,388t in the first quarter, up from 1,179t a year earlier. India was the leading non-EU supplier, shipping 426t, double the year-earlier level but down 38% from the previous quarter.

Scrap Tightness Supports Ferro-Titanium Price Recovery

Titanium scrap availability became another pressure point. EU imports of unsanctioned titanium scrap from Russia fell sharply to just 37t in the first quarter, all into Germany.

This is a major change for the Baltic route. Estonia imported no Russian titanium scrap in the quarter, compared with an average of 601 t/quarter last year.

Lower scrap availability matters because titanium scrap is a key feedstock for ferro-titanium production. Tighter scrap supply can raise production costs and reduce prompt availability for alloy producers.

European standard-grade ferro-titanium prices averaged $4.70-4.97/kg Ti dp/df Rotterdam in the first quarter, down from $5.68-6.02/kg Ti a year earlier. However, the market strengthened through the quarter.

Prices opened at $4.30-4.60/kg Ti and closed at $4.85-5.30/kg Ti. The rally was initially triggered by the insolvency of Austrian trader LL-Resources, although its ferro-titanium subsidiary LLR-Ecotech said operations were unaffected.

The price rise then gained support from stronger mill demand under long-term contracts, prompt buying and quarterly spot enquiries. Tighter titanium scrap availability also added cost pressure.

The rally continued into the second quarter, suggesting that buyers remain sensitive to reduced Russian availability and constrained scrap flows.

For Europe, the key issue is not only volume. The region must secure compliant titanium units for steelmaking while avoiding sanctioned material and managing higher feedstock costs.

The first-quarter data therefore point to a more regionalised ferro-titanium market. Europe is relying more on domestic and approved suppliers, while Russian material is increasingly absorbed in Asia.

EU, Fe-Ti Import

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s ferro-titanium market is becoming a compliance-driven supply chain. The real advantage will go to producers that can secure clean titanium scrap, prove origin and deliver reliable alloy supply into steel and cored-wire demand.

UK Critical Minerals Investment Targets Magnets, Processing and Demand Aggregation

UK, Chris McDonald

UK critical minerals investment will receive a £50mn funding boost as the government tries to strengthen domestic supply chains for rare earth magnets, extraction, processing and recycling. Industry minister Chris McDonald said the funding will be distributed across three priority areas.

UK critical minerals investment is becoming more important as advanced manufacturing, defence, clean energy and electric vehicles increase demand for secure material supply. The new funding is part of the UK’s wider critical minerals strategy.

UK critical minerals investment will include £20mn for a rare earth magnet manufacturing hub, £25mn for a critical minerals accelerator and £5mn for a demand-pooling platform across industries.

The package follows £200mn in earlier support from the National Wealth Fund, Drive35 and the UK Shared Prosperity Fund. However, the scale of the new grant remains modest compared with the capital required to build full-scale critical minerals production.

Magnet Manufacturing Hub Targets Skills and Scale-Up

The largest single allocation will support a hub for rare earth magnet manufacturing. The hub will focus on developing, testing and scaling up production capability.

This matters because rare earth magnets are technically difficult to produce. Manufacturing requires precise control over materials, alloying, powder processing, sintering, coating and final performance.

The hub will also support skills and training. That is strategically important because magnet supply chains require specialised engineering knowledge, not only raw material access.

Rare earth magnets are used in electric motors, wind turbines, defence systems, robotics, aerospace equipment and advanced electronics. Domestic capability could reduce UK exposure to concentrated overseas supply chains.

The funding also aligns with recent UK interest in rare earth recycling. McDonald visited recyclers Seloxium and DEScycle at the Wilton Centre in Teesside, highlighting the role of industrial waste recovery in future supply.

Seloxium previously received a £2mn Innovate UK grant to scale rare earth recovery from industrial waste. That shows recycling is becoming an active part of UK critical minerals policy.

Accelerator and Demand Platform Address Financing Gap

The £25mn critical minerals accelerator will support extraction, processing and recycling projects. This could help early-stage companies move technologies and projects closer to commercial deployment.

Processing is especially important. Critical minerals supply security depends on refining, separation, recycling and conversion capacity, not only mining.

The £5mn demand platform has a different purpose. It aims to pool critical mineral demand across industries, support partnerships and make investment easier.

This is a useful policy tool because many critical mineral markets are too small or uncertain to attract capital without clear buyers. Demand aggregation can help turn scattered industrial needs into bankable market signals.

However, the funding may not be enough on its own. Even small critical minerals projects often require more than £100mn in capital expenditure to reach full-scale production.

The UK therefore needs to use the £50mn as catalytic capital. Its value will depend on whether it unlocks private investment, customer commitments and larger financing packages.

The strategy is directionally strong. But execution will require scale, industrial coordination and long-term procurement support.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The UK’s £50mn package is useful because it targets magnets, processing and demand creation together. But the funding is still small, so the real test is whether it can mobilise larger capital and build commercially qualified domestic supply chains.

China Heavy Rare Earth Exports Stall as Curbs Hit Japan and US

Ru

China heavy rare earth exports stalled in May as export restrictions continued to disrupt shipments of terbium, dysprosium and lutetium products to key buyers. The data show how Beijing’s licensing controls are reshaping trade flows for materials used in magnets, defence, aerospace and advanced manufacturing.

China heavy rare earth exports were especially weak for products exposed to US and Japanese demand. China recorded no May exports of terbium oxide, dysprosium metal and several other key heavy rare earth products, while yttrium oxide shipments fell sharply from April.

China heavy rare earth exports are now being driven less by normal spot demand and more by policy clearance, end-use approval and bilateral tensions. This makes supply planning increasingly difficult for downstream users that need small but critical volumes.

Light rare earth exports moved in the opposite direction. Shipments of cerium oxide, lanthanum carbonate and neodymium metal increased in May as stronger downstream demand and firmer export prices encouraged buyers to purchase more material.

Heavy Rare Earth Controls Tighten Supply to Japan

Japan has been the clearest casualty of China’s heavy rare earth restrictions. It was previously a major consumer of Chinese yttrium oxide, accounting for 57-60% of total shipments.

That flow has changed sharply since January, when Beijing banned exports of dual-use items for Japanese military use or any end-use that could enhance Japan’s military capabilities. The measure followed deteriorating relations after comments on Taiwan by Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi.

China exported only 7t of yttrium oxide to Japan in May, while total May yttrium oxide exports fell to 90t from 161t in April. Germany received 55t, France 14t, Russia 6.9t and South Korea 6.2t.

For January-May, China exported 454t of yttrium oxide. South Korea received 111t, Austria 100t, the US 80t, Germany 69t, Vietnam 40t, Russia 20t and Japan only 14t.

Dysprosium flows were also tightly controlled. China exported 8.4t of dysprosium oxide in May, up slightly from April and March, but all shipments in April-May went to South Korea.

Dysprosium metal exports stopped in May after 3t moved to South Korea in April. Exports to Japan have been suspended since January, after 2t was shipped in December 2025.

Terbium exports were even more constrained. China exported no terbium oxide in May after shipping only 0.2t in April. Total January-May exports reached 5.7t, mostly to South Korea.

Terbium metal exports were almost absent in May, while shipments to Japan have been suspended since January. Lutetium oxide exports were also almost absent after 5t moved to the US in April.

Magnet and Aerospace Users Face Licensing Risk

The latest export pattern matters because heavy rare earths are small-volume materials with large strategic importance. Dysprosium and terbium are used to improve high-temperature performance in rare earth permanent magnets.

Those magnets are critical for electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, aerospace systems, defence equipment and high-performance industrial motors. Yttrium is also important for ceramics, phosphors, alloys, coatings and aerospace-related applications.

Lutetium is a smaller market, but its supply risk is strategically relevant because many specialty rare earths have few alternative sources. Even small interruptions can affect qualified users because substitution is difficult.

The May data show that South Korea has remained a permitted destination for some heavy rare earth products, especially dysprosium oxide. This could reflect licensing approvals for civilian or qualified end uses.

But the broader message is that buyers cannot rely only on market availability. They must also track export licences, end-user reviews and political relations with Beijing.

The divergence between light and heavy rare earth exports is also important. Light rare earth demand can still rise when prices and downstream consumption support trade, while heavy rare earth flows remain vulnerable to strategic controls.

For non-China supply chains, this reinforces the need for separation, metallization, magnet recycling and heavy rare earth sourcing outside China. However, building that capacity will take time, capital and customer qualification.

Japan’s exposure is especially important because the country has deep magnet, electronics, automotive and precision manufacturing industries. Reduced access to yttrium, dysprosium, terbium and lutetium could force buyers to accelerate inventory strategies and non-China sourcing.

The market should therefore treat May’s export data as more than a trade statistic. It is another signal that heavy rare earth supply is becoming a managed geopolitical channel.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s May export data show that rare earth risk is now concentrated in licensing, not only price. For Japan, the US and other advanced manufacturing economies, heavy rare earth security will depend on building supply routes that can survive political friction.

Derichebourg Recycling Results Rise on Non-Ferrous Strength and Scrap Policy Support

Chhattisgarh, Ferro‑alloy

Derichebourg recycling results improved in the first half of the company’s 2025-26 financial year as stronger non-ferrous demand, higher prices and increased metal volumes lifted earnings. The French recycling group reported Ebitda of €177.8mn for October-March, up almost 10% from a year earlier.

Derichebourg recycling results show how metal recyclers are benefiting from two linked forces. Non-ferrous scrap demand remains firm, while European steel policy is encouraging mills to source more feedstock from within the region.

Derichebourg recycling results also point to continued momentum in the second half. The company expects April-September performance to be comparable to the first half and forecasts full-year Ebitda of €350mn-370mn.

The market responded positively to the filing, with Derichebourg’s share price rising above €10 from €9.50 after the results were released.

Non-Ferrous Metals Drive Earnings Growth

Non-ferrous metals were the main earnings driver. Derichebourg sold 357,100t of non-ferrous metals in the first half, up 4.4% from a year earlier.

Revenue from the non-ferrous segment rose by nearly 20% to €1bn. The average non-ferrous price was almost 15% higher than in the same period last year.

Copper sales were especially strong, rising by 17%. Aluminium sales, excluding ingots, increased by 10%, supported by firm industrial demand.

However, the picture was not uniformly positive. Aluminium ingot sales fell by 15%, while lead sales dropped by 4%, mainly because of weaker demand from the automotive industry.

This split matters for recyclers. Copper and aluminium scrap remain exposed to electrification, infrastructure and industrial manufacturing, while automotive weakness can still pressure selected downstream products.

Derichebourg’s non-ferrous performance shows that scrap is becoming a strategic raw material, not only a waste recovery business. Buyers increasingly need reliable recycled metal flows for cost control, carbon reduction and supply security.

CBAM and Steel Quotas Support Ferrous Scrap Outlook

Ferrous scrap revenue fell by 5% to €649.9mn because lower average prices offset higher volumes. Derichebourg sold 2.13mn t of ferrous scrap, up 2.2% from a year earlier.

European mills increased scrap purchases ahead of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism coming into force in January. CBAM has added complexity to imported steel and raw material calculations, pushing some steelmakers toward European suppliers.

The company also expects ferrous scrap demand to strengthen after the EU introduces new steel quotas and customs duties in July. These measures could support regional scrap flows by making local feedstock more attractive.

Turkey also contributed to stronger scrap demand as steel production increased. That remains important because Turkish mills are major seaborne scrap buyers and can influence European collection and export markets.

Derichebourg is also expanding geographically. The company agreed to acquire Germany’s Scholz Recycling, which operates 180 sites including joint ventures across Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovenia, Austria and Romania.

The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2026. It will strengthen Derichebourg’s recycling network in eastern Europe, where its presence has been smaller.

The acquisition fits the wider market direction. European recyclers are scaling up as policy, carbon rules and industrial demand make scrap supply more valuable.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Derichebourg’s results show that recycling is becoming a policy-supported industrial supply chain. CBAM, steel trade measures and non-ferrous demand are turning scrap networks into strategic assets for European metals security.

IQE InP Capacity Positions UK Wafer Producer for AI Data Centre Demand

IQE

IQE InP capacity gives the UK compound semiconductor wafer producer a stronger position as artificial intelligence infrastructure drives demand for faster optical data transmission. The company says it has enough capacity to ramp output for AI infrastructure, aerospace and defence, and wireless markets in 2026.

IQE InP capacity is becoming more strategically important because indium phosphide supports high-speed photonic products used in data centres. These systems need faster, lower-latency connectivity as AI workloads increase.

IQE InP capacity could also be expanded by converting some gallium arsenide capacity if customer commitments support the move. That flexibility gives IQE a way to respond to demand without large immediate capital spending.

The company expects 2026 revenue to grow by more than 20%, supported by strong demand across core segments and a sharper recovery in photonics.

InP and GaN Demand Strengthens With AI Infrastructure

Indium phosphide demand is rising because AI data centres require ultra-fast optical and wireless communications. High-performance photonics are becoming essential as data movement becomes a bottleneck in AI infrastructure.

IQE produces InP, gallium nitride, gallium arsenide and gallium antimonide wafer products and material systems. The company sees the strongest opportunities in InP and GaN.

The AI buildout helped turn IQE’s business around in the second half of last year. First-half revenue had been pressured by tariff uncertainty, weakness in wireless handsets, customer inventory builds and delays in military and defence funding.

Photonics revenue rose by 15% to £57.1mn in 2025, supported by AI, data centres and the release of funding for some US military and defence programmes.

GaN is also gaining relevance. Demand for GaN power semiconductors is being driven by data centres, aerospace, defence and space applications, where efficiency, power density and heat resistance are critical.

GaAs remains relevant in wireless and sensing markets. IQE’s message is that InP may be leading the current growth cycle, but it sits inside a broader compound semiconductor materials platform.

Supply Security and Customer Commitments Will Decide Expansion

IQE’s capacity position improved after US chipmaker Macom invested in the company last month. The investment allowed IQE to avoid a sale process and retain manufacturing sites in the UK, US and Taiwan.

Each site has its own technology focus and capacity to scale production without major new capital expenditure. But any expansion must be supported by customer engagements, commitments or financing.

That condition matters because compound semiconductor supply chains require long qualification cycles. Customers need reliable wafer quality, secure supply, technical consistency and predictable production before committing to larger volumes.

IQE is also working with suppliers to reduce exposure to shortages in InP materials. The company is looking to dual-source or expand sourcing capabilities so it does not depend on a single supplier.

This highlights a wider materials issue. AI infrastructure is increasing demand not only for chips, but also for specialised semiconductor materials such as indium, gallium, phosphorus and antimony-based systems.

For IQE, the opportunity is clear. If AI, defence and wireless demand remain strong, the company can use its existing asset base to scale higher-value wafer production.

The challenge is execution. IQE must secure firm customer commitments, manage raw material sourcing and convert technical capacity into qualified volume growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

IQE’s outlook shows that AI infrastructure is pulling compound semiconductors deeper into strategic supply-chain planning. The next bottleneck may not only be chip design, but access to qualified InP, GaN and GaAs wafer capacity.

Johnson Matthey Cormetech Acquisition Strengthens Clean Air Catalyst Business

Johnson Matthey

Johnson Matthey Cormetech acquisition will expand the UK chemicals group’s clean air solutions business and strengthen its position in stationary emissions control. Johnson Matthey has agreed to buy US-based Cormetech for an enterprise value of $360mn in cash.

Johnson Matthey Cormetech acquisition terms also include a potential earn-out of up to $100mn linked to Cormetech’s performance in 2028-29. The transaction is expected to close by the end of June or July, subject to regulatory approvals.

Johnson Matthey Cormetech acquisition is strategically important because Cormetech produces selective catalytic reduction catalysts used to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions from gas and coal-fired power plants and industrial facilities.

The deal gives Johnson Matthey greater exposure to the US stationary emissions market, where tighter regulation and rising electricity demand are supporting demand for clean air technologies.

SCR Catalysts Gain Relevance as Power Demand Rises

Cormetech produces SCR catalysts that help cut NOx emissions from power generation and industrial processes. These systems remain important as power plants and heavy industrial facilities face stricter air pollution requirements.

The acquisition strengthens Johnson Matthey’s position beyond automotive emissions control. Stationary emissions are becoming more important as electricity demand rises from data centres, industrial electrification and grid reliability needs.

Data centre growth is especially relevant. Artificial intelligence infrastructure requires large amounts of reliable power, and that can support continued use of gas-fired generation in some markets.

If gas-fired power expands or runs at higher utilisation, emissions control systems will become more important. That creates a demand channel for SCR catalysts and related clean air services.

Cormetech generated sales of $129mn in 2025 and expects revenue of around $180mn in 2026. The company also expects Ebitda of about $35mn, giving Johnson Matthey an earnings-accretive platform in a growing market.

Catalyst Deal Supports Johnson Matthey’s Materials Strategy

Johnson Matthey expects the deal to increase earnings in the first full year after completion. It also expects at least $20mn in annual cost savings and revenue gains by 2030 from combining the businesses.

The transaction supports Johnson Matthey’s wider materials strategy. The company has deep expertise in catalysts, precious metals and emissions control, and Cormetech adds a stronger US industrial emissions platform.

Catalyst production also connects to platinum group metals markets, where Johnson Matthey remains a major global supplier and processor. This gives the acquisition a metals supply-chain angle beyond clean air regulation alone.

The deal comes as industrial customers face pressure to reduce emissions without compromising operating reliability. Power producers, refiners, chemical plants and industrial facilities need proven technologies that can meet regulatory requirements at scale.

For Johnson Matthey, Cormetech offers customer access, manufacturing capability and technology depth in stationary emissions control. For Cormetech, Johnson Matthey adds global scale, technical resources and commercial reach.

The acquisition shows that clean air technology remains a strategic market even as attention shifts toward batteries, hydrogen and electrification. Emissions control for existing industrial assets will still require investment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Johnson Matthey’s Cormetech acquisition shows that decarbonisation does not eliminate the need for conventional emissions control. As data centres lift power demand, clean air catalysts could become more important for keeping gas and industrial assets compliant.

Jubilee Metals Zambia Copper Push Gets Early Funding for Molefe Asset

Jubilee Metals

Jubilee Metals Zambia copper strategy has gained modest early-stage funding after the London-listed company secured a $1.5mn convertible loan for its Molefe copper asset. The loan will support drilling and licence work as Jubilee builds its Zambian copper platform.

Jubilee Metals Zambia copper growth now centres on feeding near-surface material from Molefe into the existing Sable refinery. This lowers upfront capital needs compared with a standalone copper development project.

Jubilee Metals Zambia copper ambitions remain dependent on additional external funding. The current loan provides short-term support, while the backer is also considering a larger staged investment of $10mn.

The financing comes as Jubilee shifts away from its South African chrome and platinum group metals assets. The company is redirecting capital toward copper, where it sees stronger growth potential.

Molefe Offers Lower-Cost Route Into Copper Processing

Molefe is strategically important because it can supply material to Jubilee’s existing Sable refinery. That gives the project a practical processing route without requiring a full new refining complex.

The near-surface nature of the operation also helps reduce early development costs. Jubilee can focus initial spending on drilling, licensing and stockpile development rather than heavy greenfield infrastructure.

This model fits smaller copper developers trying to scale under tight capital conditions. Instead of building large mines first, companies can use existing processing assets and incremental feedstock growth.

Jubilee plans to build stockpiles at Molefe to support future refining. That will be important for ensuring stable feed to Sable and improving operating continuity.

However, the $1.5mn loan is limited in scale. It supports early work, but larger funding will be needed if Jubilee wants to expand mining and processing capacity meaningfully.

Zambia Becomes Core to Jubilee’s Growth Strategy

Jubilee has increasingly focused on Zambia as it pivots toward copper. The country remains one of Africa’s most important copper jurisdictions and continues to attract investment tied to electrification and energy transition demand.

The company’s copper output has improved as the Roan concentrator stabilised and Molefe expanded its role as feedstock for Sable. This gives Jubilee a clearer operating base than during earlier ramp-up challenges.

The planned sale of South African chrome and PGM assets would sharpen that focus further. It would free capital and management attention for copper growth in Zambia.

The strategy reflects wider market logic. Copper demand remains supported by power grids, renewable energy, data centres, electric vehicles and industrial electrification.

For Jubilee, the challenge is execution. It must convert a low-cost processing model into steady copper output, secure enough feedstock and attract the capital required for expansion.

The potential $10mn staged investment could become more important than the initial loan. It would provide a stronger bridge between early development and larger operating scale.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Jubilee’s Molefe funding is small, but the strategy is practical. In a capital-constrained copper market, assets that can feed existing refineries may advance faster than larger standalone projects.

Adani Green BESS Expansion Makes Khavda a Major Grid Storage Platform

Adani Green Energy

Adani Green BESS capacity has reached 3.37GWh at the Khavda renewable energy park in Gujarat, marking a major step in India’s effort to make large-scale renewable power more reliable and dispatchable. Adani Green Energy added 2GWh to the 1.37GWh installed in March.

Adani Green BESS development at Khavda is significant because the project is now the largest single-location battery storage installation outside China, according to the company. The system is co-located with AGEL’s 30GW renewable energy project, of which 9.9GW is already operational.

Adani Green BESS expansion also signals how India’s clean energy transition is moving beyond generation capacity alone. Solar and wind projects need storage to manage intermittency, stabilise grids and supply power during peak demand periods.

The company plans to scale its storage footprint quickly. It is targeting more than 10GWh of new capacity by March 2027 and aims to reach 50GWh over the next five years.

Khavda Storage Strengthens Renewable Power Dispatchability

The Khavda BESS uses lithium-ion battery technology integrated with advanced energy management systems. This allows faster grid response, better stability and more reliable renewable power delivery.

This matters because India is adding renewable power at scale, but grid flexibility remains a major constraint. Battery storage helps convert variable solar and wind generation into usable power during high-demand periods.

AGEL said the 3.37GWh system can power about 1mn homes for a full day. It can also meet peak electricity demand in cities such as Indore or Chandigarh, or supply the entire state of Goa.

The Khavda project therefore shows how battery storage is becoming core electricity infrastructure. It is no longer only a backup tool or pilot technology.

For India, this type of storage capacity supports energy security, renewable integration and reduced dependence on fossil fuel peaking power. It also strengthens the case for more domestic battery materials, cell manufacturing and power electronics capacity.

Battery Storage Growth Lifts Materials and Supply-Chain Demand

Large BESS projects create demand across several material chains. Lithium-ion batteries require lithium, graphite, copper, aluminium, separators, electrolytes, battery management systems and thermal control technologies.

Copper demand is also supported by cabling, grid connections, transformers and power conversion systems. Aluminium can benefit through enclosures, busbars, structural systems and cooling components.

India’s rapid storage targets could therefore deepen demand for battery raw materials and downstream manufacturing. The country will need reliable supply chains for cells, modules, inverters and grid equipment if it wants to scale from gigawatt-hours to tens of gigawatt-hours.

The Khavda system also highlights the strategic link between renewable energy and industrial policy. Battery storage deployment can create demand signals for local manufacturing, recycling and critical minerals processing.

However, scaling to 50GWh will require capital, land, grid integration, battery procurement and long-term project economics. Storage must become not only technically viable, but also financially repeatable.

Adani Green’s commissioning shows that India is moving quickly. The next challenge is building a domestic ecosystem that can support storage deployment without relying too heavily on imported battery materials and equipment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Khavda shows that the renewable energy race is becoming a storage race. India’s next clean-energy bottleneck will not be only solar or wind capacity, but the battery materials, grid equipment and financing needed to make renewable power dispatchable.

Brazil ETS Calendar Sets Phased Path for Industrial Emissions Reporting

Brazil

Brazil ETS calendar proposals would bring heavy industry into the country’s emerging emissions trading system through phased reporting from 2027, 2029 and 2031. The finance ministry’s preliminary schedule is designed to give companies more visibility before mandatory emissions limits are applied.

Brazil ETS calendar plans would first cover paper and cellulose, ferrous metals and steel, cement, primary aluminum, oil and gas exploration and production, refining and air transport. These sectors sit at the centre of Brazil’s industrial emissions base.

Brazil ETS calendar development is strategically important for metals producers because steel, aluminum and mining will face rising scrutiny over carbon intensity. The system could gradually reshape investment decisions, energy sourcing and competitiveness.

Brazil’s emissions trading system, known as SBCE, is expected to be regulated by the end of this year. The government plans to launch a public consultation in July.

Steel and Primary Aluminum Enter the First Phase

The first phase places steel and primary aluminum among the earliest industrial sectors to report emissions. This is important because both industries are energy-intensive and increasingly exposed to carbon-related trade and customer requirements.

For steelmakers, emissions reporting will create a clearer baseline for future decarbonization planning. Companies will need to measure process emissions, energy use and operating practices before sector limits are introduced.

Primary aluminum producers will face similar pressure. Aluminum’s carbon footprint depends heavily on power source, smelting efficiency and upstream alumina supply.

The proposed structure gives companies time to prepare. Each phase would last four years, beginning with emissions monitoring before setting total emissions limits for each sector.

Reductions would remain non-mandatory during the initial phases. This lowers immediate compliance pressure, but still pushes companies to build emissions data systems and prepare for future regulation.

Mining and Recycled Aluminum Follow in Second Phase

The second phase would add mining, recycled aluminum, electricity, glass, food and beverages, chemicals, ceramics and waste. This expands the ETS from core heavy emitters into broader industrial supply chains.

Mining’s inclusion matters because Brazil is a major supplier of iron ore, bauxite, manganese, nickel, lithium and other critical minerals. Emissions reporting could become part of how mineral exports are assessed by customers and financiers.

Recycled aluminum entering the second phase also matters. Secondary aluminum usually carries a lower carbon profile than primary metal, but reporting requirements may still shape scrap processing, remelting efficiency and product certification.

Electricity’s inclusion is also critical. Power-sector emissions influence the carbon footprint of metals, chemicals and downstream manufacturing.

The third phase would cover road, waterways and rail transport. That could eventually affect logistics costs and emissions accounting across mineral exports, domestic freight and industrial supply chains.

The finance ministry said the proposal aims to create predictability for a gradual transition to decarbonization. That predictability will be essential if Brazil wants industry to invest before binding limits arrive.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brazil’s ETS proposal is not yet a hard cap on industry, but it is the start of carbon accounting discipline. For metals and mining companies, early preparation could become a competitive advantage once customers and regulators begin pricing emissions more directly.

NioCorp Scandium Supply Plan Targets Latent Demand From Elk Creek

NioCorp

NioCorp scandium supply plans could reshape a small but strategically important market if the company brings its Elk Creek critical minerals project in Nebraska into production. The US junior miner says reliable scandium availability could unlock demand that has remained dormant because customers lack secure supply.

NioCorp scandium supply would come from a polymetallic carbonatite ore body that also contains niobium, titanium and rare earths. The company plans to produce neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium oxides alongside its main niobium product.

NioCorp scandium supply is important because scandium can strengthen and lighten aluminium alloys when added in small quantities. This gives the metal potential relevance for automotive, aerospace, defence and lightweight structural applications.

Construction at Elk Creek is expected to begin in the third or fourth quarter, once financing is secured. The company expects three years of construction, followed by ramp-up, with a full year of production targeted by 2030.

Elk Creek Financing Links Niobium, Scandium and Rare Earths

NioCorp is seeking a loan of around $780mn from the US Export-Import Bank. That financing could cover up to 65% of total capital expenditure through debt.

The company’s 2022 feasibility study estimated total capital expenditure at $1.2bn for underground and surface facilities. NioCorp has raised more than $500mn over the past 14 months and may still need another $200mn-400mn in cash support.

All planned production is covered under a 10-year commercial agreement with Traxys. This gives the project a route to market across its diversified product stream.

The diversified ore body reduces dependence on a single commodity. Niobium remains the main focus, but scandium, titanium and rare earths can broaden revenue and reduce exposure to one price cycle.

Niobium supply risk is a major strategic issue. Brazil produces about 95% of global niobium supply, while the US and EU import all the niobium they need.

That concentration creates geopolitical vulnerability. NioCorp argues that Brazil could use niobium as leverage in the same way China has used rare earths in trade and strategic disputes.

Elk Creek therefore matters for more than one mineral. It could give the US domestic access to niobium, scandium and rare earth oxides from a single integrated project.

Scandium Demand Case Depends on Reliable Domestic Supply

The global scandium market is currently tiny, with only about 30-35t produced annually. NioCorp plans to produce 100t, which has raised concerns that new supply could overwhelm demand.

The company takes the opposite view. It argues that applications are waiting on the shelf because users do not trust the availability of scandium supply.

NioCorp estimates latent demand could reach about 3,000 t/yr if secure supply becomes available. It is working with companies including Aston Martin and Jaguar Land Rover to demonstrate scandium-aluminium alloy performance.

This is the key industrial point. Scandium demand cannot develop without reliable supply, but reliable supply is difficult to finance without visible demand.

NioCorp is also building a downstream scandium chain in the US. The company plans to produce high-purity scandium oxide, scandium metal and scandium aluminium master alloy.

That approach fits defence and industrial supply-chain needs. Customers need not only mined material, but qualified products that can enter alloy systems and manufacturing routes.

Rare earth processing adds another layer of complexity. NioCorp says it has developed in-house capability to produce high-purity rare earth oxides, supported by staff with decades of solvent extraction experience.

Execution will decide the project’s market impact. Financing, construction, separation technology, customer qualification and downstream partnerships must all align before Elk Creek can become a meaningful US critical minerals platform.

The Metalnomist Commentary

NioCorp’s strategy shows why critical minerals demand often depends on supply confidence first. If Elk Creek reaches production, scandium could move from a niche laboratory metal into a practical aluminium alloying tool for lightweight manufacturing.

Vale Labor Deal Reduces Strike Risk at Ontario Copper and Nickel Operations

Vale

Vale labor deal discussions have produced a tentative collective agreement with United Steelworkers locals representing production and maintenance workers at Vale Base Metals operations in Ontario. The agreement could reduce strike risk at a key Canadian copper, nickel, cobalt and precious metals production base.

Vale labor deal terms still require union ratification. USW Local 6500 will hold information sessions on 27-28 May, followed by online voting from Thursday morning to Friday evening.

Vale labor deal approval would come just before the current five-year collective agreement expires on 31 May. The timing is important because union members had already voted strongly in favour of a strike mandate earlier this month.

The tentative agreement therefore matters for supply continuity. Vale’s Ontario operations remain an important source of finished nickel and copper for North American industrial and critical minerals supply chains.

Sudbury Operations Remain Strategically Important

Vale’s Sudbury operations include several mines, a mill, smelter and refinery. The complex produces copper, nickel, cobalt and precious metals, making it one of the most important integrated base metals operations in Canada.

The site’s role is especially important because nickel and cobalt remain critical to batteries, superalloys, stainless steel, defence applications and advanced manufacturing. Copper supports electrification, grids, data centres and industrial equipment.

Vale produced 59,400t of finished nickel at Sudbury in 2025. That accounted for about 34% of the company’s total finished nickel output that year.

Sudbury also produced 63,800t of finished copper in 2025, equal to about 17% of Vale’s total finished copper production. Any labour disruption would therefore carry company-level and regional supply-chain significance.

The Port Colborne refinery adds another downstream dimension. It produces electro-cobalt, processes precious metals and distributes finished nickel products.

Ratification Will Decide Supply Continuity

The tentative agreement is not yet final. Union members must approve the deal before it becomes the new labour contract.

That vote will be closely watched because Local 6500 members voted 97.64% in support of a strike mandate earlier this month. Such a strong mandate gave the union significant leverage during negotiations.

A ratified agreement would provide operational stability for Vale Base Metals in Ontario. It would also reduce uncertainty for customers that depend on Canadian nickel, copper, cobalt and refined products.

For North American critical minerals policy, labour stability matters. Governments and manufacturers are trying to build secure supply chains, but mine and refinery output still depends on workforce agreements, site reliability and downstream processing capacity.

The broader market impact depends on the vote. If workers approve the deal, Vale can avoid immediate disruption at a strategically important metals complex. If not, strike risk could quickly return as the current agreement expires.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Vale agreement shows that critical minerals security is not only about geology, capital or policy. Labour stability at integrated mining, smelting and refining assets is just as important to reliable nickel, copper and cobalt supply.

Asian Aluminium Premiums Stay Subdued as QMJP Offers Test Buyer Resistance

Aluminum

Asian aluminium premiums remained subdued this week as buyers assessed sharply higher quarterly cif main Japan port offers for July-September delivery. Two major producers opened QMJP negotiations at $460/t and $480/t, far above the April-June settlement of $350-353/t.

Asian aluminium premiums are now being pulled in two directions. Western-origin metal has tightened after the Iran war disrupted supply, giving producers a basis for higher offers. However, weak demand and greater availability of alternative units are limiting spot-market momentum.

Asian aluminium premiums also remain below the new QMJP offers. Current spot indications are around $320-380/t, while P1020 fca Korea indications for non-Russian material were heard at $320-350/t.

The gap between producer offers and spot levels suggests buyers may resist paying the full proposed premium. If QMJP settles above $400/t, non-western brands could continue trading below the benchmark.

Western-Origin Tightness Supports Higher Producer Offers

The higher QMJP offers reflect tighter availability of western-origin aluminium in Asia. Supply disruption linked to the Iran war has reduced confidence in some traditional flows, pushing producers to test stronger premium levels.

This is important because QMJP remains a key reference for aluminium trade across Asia. A high settlement can influence physical premiums, contract pricing and buyer behaviour beyond Japan.

However, the market is not uniformly tight. Some Asian smelters have received enquiries and are willing to sell into Europe or offer small volumes in Asia. Others prefer to wait for clearer direction from the QMJP negotiations.

This cautious behaviour shows how benchmark talks can freeze spot activity. Buyers do not want to commit at high levels before the benchmark is settled, while sellers do not want to underprice material if premiums rise.

The immediate market signal is therefore uncertainty, not shortage. Western-origin units command support, but broader aluminium availability remains mixed.

Stranded Wire and Russian Units Cap Spot Upside

Alternative supply is limiting the impact of higher QMJP offers. Stranded wire and Russian-origin aluminium units are weighing on sales of other brands, especially where buyers are more price-sensitive.

China’s exports of aluminium stranded wire rose sharply in April. Shipments under HS code 761490 increased by 166% year on year to 15,567t.

South Korea and Vietnam absorbed much larger volumes. Chinese shipments to South Korea surged to 2,911t, while shipments to Vietnam climbed to 2,288t. Exports to Thailand also rose to 619t.

These flows matter because stranded wire can create substitute supply pressure in regional aluminium markets. When alternative units are available, buyers have less urgency to accept premium increases for standard brands.

Russian-origin aluminium also remains a price-sensitive factor. Some buyers continue to avoid Russian material for policy or corporate reasons, but availability still affects regional market balance and non-western brand pricing.

Demand remains the bigger constraint. Buyers are likely to reduce volumes if both LME prices and QMJP premiums stay high. This limits the ability of producers to convert tight western-origin supply into broad spot-market price gains.

The next quarter may therefore produce a divided market. Western-origin material could secure stronger contract premiums, while non-western and alternative units trade at discounts.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Asia’s aluminium market is not rejecting higher premiums; it is questioning which metal deserves them. The real split is between tight western-origin supply and a softer regional market still supported by stranded wire, Russian units and weak demand.

Energy Security Investment Rises as IEA Sees $3.4 Trillion Global Spend

IEA

Energy security investment is accelerating as the war in the Middle East and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz push governments and companies to diversify supply. The IEA expects global energy investment to reach $3.4 trillion in 2026.

Energy security investment is now shifting strongly toward electricity, grids, storage, renewables, nuclear, low-emissions fuels and efficiency. The IEA expects around $2.2 trillion to flow into these areas, compared with about $1.2 trillion for fossil fuels.

Energy security investment also carries direct metals implications. More spending on grids, storage, solar, wind, nuclear and electrification will support demand for copper, aluminium, electrical steel, lithium, nickel, rare earths and other critical materials.

The IEA described the current crisis as the largest energy security crisis the world has faced. It expects decision-makers to prioritise resilience, diversification and trusted energy partners.

Electricity Spending Becomes the Core Security Response

Electricity-related investment is becoming the dominant theme in global energy spending. The IEA expects investment in electricity supply and infrastructure to reach nearly $1.6 trillion in 2026.

That figure rises to about $2 trillion when end-use electrification is included. This shows that energy security is no longer only about oil and gas supply. It is increasingly about reliable power systems.

Power grids will be central to this shift. Grid expansion, storage deployment and electrification require large volumes of copper, aluminium and electrical equipment.

Renewables will also remain a major investment channel. The IEA expects renewables spending to reach around $665bn in 2026, including $365bn for solar, $200bn for wind and $75bn for hydropower.

Annual renewables spending growth has moderated because of lower technology costs and policy changes in China and the US. However, low-emissions sources still account for more than 70% of global power investment.

The metals signal is clear. Energy security policy is reinforcing the same material demand base already supported by decarbonisation. Grid metals, battery materials and renewable energy inputs remain structurally important.

Fuel Supply Shock Keeps Fossil Investment Alive

Fossil fuel investment is also rising in selected areas. Total fossil fuel supply investment is expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2026, returning to 2024 levels.

Oil investment is expected to fall for a third consecutive year to below $500bn. Long project lead times, supply-chain limits, offshore rig tightness and uncertainty over the duration of the price spike are limiting near-term spending outside the Middle East.

Natural gas investment is moving in the opposite direction. The IEA expects gas investment to reach $330bn, the highest level in a decade, supported by LNG export projects and demand from data centres.

Coal investment is also expected to rise to $180bn, the highest level since 2012. Around 70% of that spending is expected in China, while some Asian countries may keep existing coal-fired power plants running longer to protect energy security.

The IEA said past investments in renewables, nuclear, efficiency and electrification have already improved energy security in major fuel-importing regions. It estimated that China, the EU, Japan, South Korea, southeast Asia and India avoided around $260bn in fossil fuel imports in 2025.

The conflict is also forcing a search for new energy export routes to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Repair costs for damaged energy infrastructure are expected to reach tens of billions of dollars.

For industrial markets, the result is a more complex energy outlook. Electricity investment is rising fast, but gas and coal remain part of short-term security planning. That mix will shape metals demand, energy costs and industrial competitiveness.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The IEA’s outlook shows that energy security and electrification are now the same investment story. The winners will be supply chains that can deliver grids, storage, renewables and critical minerals at scale while reducing exposure to fragile fuel routes.