GE Aerospace LEAP engine deliveries surge as aftermarket demand lifts outlook

GE Aerospace LEAP

Supply chain tailwinds support LEAP ramp

GE Aerospace LEAP engine deliveries jumped sharply in the second quarter. The surge in GE Aerospace LEAP engine deliveries reflects improving supplier output and steadier logistics. The company also raised guidance on stronger commercial services demand.

GE and Safran’s CFM International power the 737 MAX and A320neo. Meanwhile, GE Aerospace LEAP engine deliveries rose 38% year on year in the quarter. Total commercial engine shipments climbed 37%, while defense deliveries rose 84%.

GE credits supply stabilization for the throughput gains. Output at 12 priority suppliers increased 10% sequentially, with 95% on-time volumes. As a result, GE intends to burn down $3bn of “trapped inventory” accumulated since 2023.

Tariff risk still shadows the recovery. GE estimates a potential $500mn profit hit if reciprocal US duties arrive on 1 August. However, a new US-China framework has eased fears of retaliatory Chinese tariffs on spares.

Materials intensity and services momentum

The LEAP ramp strengthens demand for titanium and nickel alloys. That pull-through spans low-pressure and high-pressure sections across narrowbody fleets. Looking ahead, GE targets 2,500 LEAP deliveries in 2028 to match OEM rates.

Technology upgrades should extend time on wing. GE expects Boeing certification of a new HPT blade by the first half of 2026. The kit, already rolling into Airbus fleets, should more than double LEAP durability.

Aftermarket services now power earnings growth. Second-quarter MRO revenue rose 21% to $7.3bn on higher spares and shop visits. Airlines are flying older aircraft longer as new-build deliveries lag plan.

GE lifted full-year operating profit guidance to $8.2bn–$8.5bn. Quarterly profit rose 60% to $2bn, with revenue up 21% to $11bn. Therefore, GE Aerospace LEAP engine deliveries and services together underpin a firmer 2025 trajectory.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The LEAP ramp is pulling metals through the value chain, notably titanium and nickel alloys. If tariff risks recede, the combination of durability upgrades and MRO breadth should compress downtime and smooth cash conversion across narrowbody fleets.

Airbus Support to Spirit AeroSystems Deepens as Boeing Deal Nears

Spirit AeroSystems

Why this funding matters for Airbus programs

Airbus support to Spirit AeroSystems expanded with a new $94mn package. The funding lifts total Airbus support to $152mn, plus $200mn in zero-interest credit. Airbus aims to stabilize output across key programs before the Spirit transaction closes. The closing is expected in the third quarter, subject to final approvals.

Airbus will confine the cash to specified contracts. These include the A350 wing, A350 fuselage, and A321neo XLR inboard flap. They also include A220 mid-fuselage, A220 pylon, and A220 wing packages. Any assets purchased with this aid will transfer to Airbus at closing.

How the Boeing–Spirit reshuffle changes the supply chain

Boeing is reacquiring Spirit to shore up its supply chain and finances. The merger carves out Airbus work packages for direct Airbus oversight. Airbus support to Spirit AeroSystems therefore serves dual goals. It sustains near-term deliveries and smooths post-closing integration.

Spirit confirmed Airbus will also take Belfast mid-fuselage production. Shorts Brothers, the Belfast operator, posted a $504mn loss in 2024. Inflation and skilled-labor constraints hurt performance across that site. After the carve-outs, Shorts will still supply Bombardier and Rolls-Royce.

The latest $94mn follows two $29mn tranches issued in 2024. Airbus support to Spirit AeroSystems remains targeted and ring-fenced. The structure de-risks A350 and A220 aerostructures ahead of integration. It also supports A321neo XLR ramp plans amid engine and parts strains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Airbus is buying stability while buying scope. The ring-fenced liquidity and future asset transfer reduce execution risk where it matters most: wings, fuselages, and pylons. As Boeing folds Spirit back in, this parallel carve-out should tighten European supply lines and compress quality variance.

China rare earth quotas 2025 allocated, volumes undisclosed

China renewable energy

China rare earth quotas 2025 have been allocated, but volumes remain undisclosed. The first batch arrives under new rare earth rules. Meanwhile, China rare earth quotas 2025 now include separation and smelting from imported concentrates. Therefore, market participants must plan without official tonnages.

What the quiet rollout signals for supply

Beijing’s opaque release tightens near-term visibility for magnet and catalyst supply chains. Last year’s yardsticks were 270,000t for mining and 254,000t for separation. However, this year’s framework adds imported concentrate output to quota coverage. As a result, refiners may shift blends and booking patterns.

Control and compliance reshape the landscape

Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth Group again anchor domestic allocations. Regulators set quotas after “comprehensive” market and operational reviews. The 2024 regulation update formalized that approach and tightened compliance. In turn, the system aims to curb illegal output and smooth pricing volatility. China rare earth quotas 2025 could still swing NdPr and heavy RE flows.

Global buyers should expect cautious offer behavior until volumes surface. Therefore, inventories, tender timing, and index linkage deserve fresh scrutiny. EV, wind, and electronics demand keeps pressure on NdPr, Dy, and Tb units. Pricing risk will track any deviation from last year’s baseline.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s undisclosed tonnages keep the market guessing, but the broader net over imported concentrates matters more. Watch offer cadence from Baotou and Ganzhou, and any hint of quarterly quota top-ups. If policy prioritizes stability, volatility should compress after initial price jitters.

BHP record copper output reaches 2mn t as Escondida leads

BHP

BHP record copper output hit 2mn tonnes in FY2024-25, up 8.1pc year on year. The result landed at the top of guidance, underscoring operational resilience. As a result, BHP maintained FY2025-26 guidance at 1.8mn-2mn t. BHP record copper output reflects stronger grades at Escondida and disciplined throughput. Meanwhile, the miner flagged grade normalization ahead.

Escondida drives gains; grades normalize next year

Escondida delivered 1.3mn t, its best in 17 years, lifting group performance. Higher ore grades averaged 1.02pc versus 0.88pc last year. However, grades slipped in April-June and are guided to 0.85pc in FY2025-26. Therefore, BHP plans to offset with higher concentrator throughput and stable maintenance. The company kept Escondida’s 1.2mn-1.3mn t guidance unchanged.

Pampa Norte produced 268,000t, at the top of its range, led by Spence cathodes. Spence cathode output rose 12pc to 117,000t on higher stacked feed grades. However, weaker concentrator feed grades will trim 2025-26 guidance to 230,000-250,000t. The Cerro Colorado site remains in care and maintenance, limiting upside.

Regional performance and outlook for FY2025-26

Copper South Australia produced 315,900t, clipped by an October power outage. Even so, second-half output rebounded 18pc to 171,200t on improved recoveries. The operation set a quarterly record of 92,100t in April-June. Guidance stands at 310,000-340,000t for FY2025-26.

Antamina contributed 119,000t, down 17pc on planned lower grades and throughput. BHP guided Antamina to 120,000-140,000t next year as grades stabilize. The Carajás complex added 9,400t, providing optionality across Brazil. Altogether, BHP record copper output strengthens global supply during tight markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

BHP’s mix of grade management and throughput discipline stood out this year. Watch Escondida’s grade drift and Spence’s concentrator feed as key swing factors. If guidance holds, sustained capex and steady recoveries should anchor margins despite volatility.

Enduring Reliance Amid Sanctions: Europe’s Russian Titanium Dilemma

VSMPO Titanium

Introduction: A Supply Chain Unbroken in Wartime

Despite sweeping economic sanctions imposed by the West following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, one supply chain has proved remarkably resilient: Russian titanium sponge. Europe’s quandary over this advanced material—indispensable to aerospace, defense, and medical-device manufacturing—has only deepened.

Russia’s Command of Titanium

Russia ranks among the world’s largest titanium producers. VSMPO-AVISMA, the country’s flagship producer, accounts for 90% of Russia’s titanium output and exports to some 50 countries. The company is estimated to control up to 30% of the global titanium market and nearly half of aerospace-grade supply.

Russia’s dominance rests on abundant raw-material reserves and comparatively low energy costs. Because titanium smelting is energy-intensive, commercial viability depends on cheap power and gas—conditions Russia has historically met.

Airbus A380

Trade that Continues Despite Sanctions

On 7 March 2022, Boeing announced it would halt purchases of Russian titanium used in aircraft manufacturing. Rolls-Royce and Boeing subsequently suspended procurement from VSMPO-AVISMA indefinitely.

Europe, however, charted a different course. Airbus urged the European Union to keep Russian titanium outside future sanctions packages. As Airbus chief executive Guillaume Faury argued, titanium represents a small share of Russia’s total exports, so sanctions would inflict little pain on Moscow while dealing a heavy blow to Europe’s aerospace industry.

Today, Airbus still sources roughly half of its titanium from VSMPO-AVISMA. Boeing, by contrast, once relied on Russia for about one-third of its titanium but has since stopped buying Russian material.

The Limits—and Exceptions—of EU Sanctions

Notably, while the EU has restricted imports of Russian steel and coal, titanium has not been sanctioned. The metal remains a strategic material used in fuselages, turbine blades, satellites, and other critical systems.

Dependence on Russian metals endures in other segments as well. From March to June 2022, combined EU-US imports of Russian aluminum and nickel rose to $1.98 billion—more than 70% above the prior-year period.

Washington and Brussels have generally refrained from designating industrial metals as sanction targets. Europe continues to import large volumes of Russian natural gas, and Russia supplies about 40% of global palladium—vital for semiconductors—implicating everything from automobiles to smartphones.

CBAM

CBAM: A New Variable

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), introduced in October 2023, adds another layer of complexity. CBAM initially covers cement, electricity, fertilizers, iron and steel, aluminum, hydrogen, and certain downstream products in steel and aluminum. After a transition phase through 2025, full implementation begins in 2026, imposing carbon costs on imports equivalent to those borne by EU producers.

While fertilizers, cement, hydrogen, and non-exported electricity may see limited near-term impact, aluminum stands out as a key target sector. Most exports to the EU beyond steel and aluminum are not yet covered, though the European Commission has signaled possible expansion to high-leakage categories such as organic chemicals and plastics.

Russia is structurally disadvantaged under CBAM. Steel production in Russia, Ukraine, and Türkiye tends to be more carbon-intensive, implying higher embedded-carbon costs at the border.

Ambiguities in Sanctions and Industry’s Dilemma

The United States placed VSMPO-AVISMA on its “military end-user” list, restricting access to advanced technologies, but stopped short of a direct ban on titanium sales—an acknowledgment of global industry’s reliance on the material.

Indeed, during the early stages of the war, VSMPO-AVISMA avoided sweeping US and European sanctions. Although Washington temporarily listed the company in December 2020, the measure was later rescinded.

Recent moves, however, suggest a tightening environment. In April 2024, a joint US-UK action prompted the CME and LME to prohibit trade in newly produced Russian aluminum, copper, and nickel dated after 13 April—an effort widely read as constraining Russia’s influence in metals markets.

Ukraine Titanium Mine

Ukraine: A Viable Alternative?

Against this backdrop, Ukraine has emerged as a potential alternative. Until 2020, the country supplied 90% of Russia’s ilmenite—the feedstock for titanium sponge. With that supply chain severed by war, Ukrainian resources could help challenge Russia’s dominance.

US companies have begun talks with Kyiv on a joint venture anchored by the Zaporizhzhia Titanium-Magnesium Plant (ZTMP). Such partnerships could forge a new titanium hub in Eastern Europe, strengthening Ukraine’s economic footing for decades.

The risks are significant. Ongoing conflict and occupation threaten both Donbas deposits and the ZTMP facilities, which remain exposed to shelling and sabotage.

Aviation’s Growth—and Its Dilemma

The aerospace-titanium market was valued at roughly $100 million in 2022 and is projected to grow at a CAGR exceeding 5% from 2023 to 2032—reflecting the rebound in air travel and a pipeline of commercial aircraft programs.

Despite supply-chain turbulence from war, energy constraints, and labor shortages, passenger traffic continues to recover, lifting titanium demand. In October 2022, Airbus announced plans to deliver more than one aircraft per week to India, persisting with expansion despite engine-supply challenges and domestic carrier capacity constraints—developments that further complicate titanium sourcing.

The Reality of Diversification

Boeing reportedly began diversifying away from Russian titanium after the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Airbus, by contrast, remains heavily reliant on Russian supply.

Globally, China produced around 100,000 t of titanium in 2013—twice the combined output of Russia and Japan at the time—making it the world’s largest producer. Japan ranked third, with Osaka Titanium Technologies standing as the world’s second-largest producer of titanium sponge.

The Metalnomist Commentary: An Unfinished Dilemma

Europe’s struggle over Russian titanium sponge epitomizes the knotty realities of modern supply chains. Between economic sanctions and security imperatives, between industrial competitiveness and moral principle, Europe has yet to find a definitive answer.

With CBAM’s full force arriving in 2026, higher carbon-cost pass-throughs on Russian metals seem likely, intensifying pressure to rewire supply. Yet, as Airbus’s position illustrates, displacing Russian titanium in the short term remains daunting.

The gap between industrial necessity and political sanction endures—witness VSMPO-AVISMA’s August 2025 statement that it stands ready to resume cooperation with Boeing. For now, Europe must navigate this dilemma with prudence: balancing sanction principles, industrial realities, and emergent environmental rules—while accelerating the use of recycled titanium wherever feasible.

US solar duties on imports: manufacturers target India, Indonesia and Laos

US solar companies

A new petition seeks US solar duties on imports from India, Indonesia and Laos to curb alleged dumping. A coalition of domestic manufacturers filed AD/CVD cases with Commerce and the ITC. They allege Chinese-backed and Indian firms sell below fair value with illegal subsidies. As a result, US solar duties on imports could expand again after last month’s Southeast Asia tariffs.

Who is behind the push

The Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade leads the petition. Members include First Solar, Mission Solar Energy and Qcells. Previously, the alliance won duties on Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. However, petitioners say producers shifted capacity to Laos and Indonesia. They argue US solar duties on imports must follow those shifts to protect jobs and investments.

The filing targets crystalline silicon PV cells and modules. Petitioners claim antidumping sales under “normal value.” They also cite countervailable subsidies that distort US prices. The first step is an inquiry by Commerce and the ITC. Regulators can then impose provisional tariffs pending final determinations.

How new tariffs could reshape supply chains

New tariffs would raise delivered costs for targeted panels and cells. Meanwhile, they could bolster US factory utilization and planned expansions. Developers may diversify procurement across non-targeted sources to manage risk. As a result, buyers face short-term price volatility and contracting delays.

Trade diversion remains a central concern for policymakers. Petitioners argue enforcement must track ownership and processing routes. Therefore, compliance programs and country-of-origin audits will matter more. Clear guidance on scope will be critical for bankable supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Trade policy is steering the solar supply chain as much as technology. If Commerce opens these cases, expect tighter margins and faster localization. Bankable EPCs will hedge with multi-country sourcing while awaiting preliminary duty rates.

Uber Lucid Nuro EV robotaxi to launch in US, scale globally

Uber & Lucid

Uber will deploy a new robotaxi fleet with Lucid and Nuro starting next year. The program launches in a major US city using Lucid Gravity SUVs. The Uber Lucid Nuro EV robotaxi targets scale and lower downtime with a 450-mile range.

Technology, launch, and scale

Lucid, Nuro, and Uber formed an exclusive robotaxi program for Uber's platform. Uber or partners will operate at least 20,000 vehicles over six years. Nuro Driver provides Level 4 autonomy for the Gravity model. The first prototype already operates autonomously at Las Vegas proving grounds.

Lucid selected Gravity to maximize availability with 450 miles per charge. Longer range reduces charging downtime during peak ride demand. Therefore, utilization improves and unit economics may strengthen. However, safety validation and regulatory approvals remain critical gates.

Investment, infrastructure, and supply chain

Uber plans to invest hundreds of millions in Lucid and Nuro. The companies aim to build fast charging and service infrastructure. Meanwhile, Uber Lucid Nuro EV robotaxi deployment could pressure battery supply chains. Demand for high-nickel cathodes and aluminum body materials may rise.

Global rollout hinges on scaling autonomy and local compliance. As a result, deployment will expand beyond the United States in stages. The Uber Lucid Nuro EV robotaxi may catalyze urban fleet electrification. Success could spur similar alliances among automakers and platforms.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This program pairs a long-range EV with mature Level 4 stacks to chase uptime. Watch local permitting, charger density, and service models as scale grows. Procurement discipline will matter if component inflation reappears during the ramp.

Hyundai Georgia battery plant delay: production unaffected

Hyundai Georgia

Hyundai Georgia battery plant delay extends construction by two to three months after a federal worksite raid. However, Hyundai says vehicle output remains unaffected across US plants. The Hyundai Georgia battery plant delay follows ICE and FBI detentions of 475 workers and halted site work. South Korea repatriated more than 300 nationals after the operation.

What changes for US EV supply chains

Hyundai Georgia battery plant delay does not disrupt near-term EV supply, thanks to diversified cell sourcing. Meanwhile, the De Soto site remains strategic for future capacity and logistics. As a result, Hyundai prioritizes contractor audits, workforce vetting, and timeline buffers to reduce ramp risk. The company also reiterates no change to current US vehicle manufacturing plans.

Policy scrutiny now shapes gigafactory execution as much as equipment delivery. Therefore, federal oversight and local training programs will influence schedule certainty. Former President Trump urged visas for experts to train US crews, highlighting a technical skills gap. Automakers will likely expand apprenticeships and partner colleges to accelerate battery workforce readiness.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Short delays rarely move EV output, but they expose weak links in labor compliance and specialty skills. Expect tighter contractor governance and earlier talent pipelines to become standard in US battery projects.

Alcoa aluminum output rises as alumina and bauxite slip

Alcoa Aluminum

Alcoa aluminum output increased in the second quarter despite upstream weakness and tariff pressure. The Brazil Alumar ramp-up offset delays at Spain’s San Ciprián smelter and stabilized smelting utilization. Management maintained 2025 aluminum production guidance at 2.3–2.5 million tonnes, signaling operational confidence. However, shipments lagged as the restart pause and trade frictions disrupted flows across key corridors. Alcoa aluminum output momentum nevertheless underpins a cautious but improving outlook for margins.

Tariffs reshape shipments and guidance

Tariffs continue to weigh on realized economics and delivery patterns across North America. Alcoa cut full-year shipment guidance to 2.5–2.6 million tonnes to reflect power and logistics headwinds. It also expects about $90 million of tariff costs in the third quarter, pressuring profitability. Canadian metal was redirected away from the United States to mitigate incremental import charges. Peers face similar headwinds, confirming broader cost inflation across global aluminum supply chains. As a result, Alcoa aluminum output strength must translate into disciplined commercial execution.

Upstream constraints and sourcing strategy

Bauxite and alumina production declined as the Kwinana refinery closure reduced available refining capacity. Even so, Alcoa kept 2025 alumina production guidance at 9.5–9.7 million tonnes, highlighting operational flexibility. To honor contracts, the firm will ship more alumina than it produces through third-party sourcing. This strategy preserves customer commitments while the San Ciprián restart progresses toward mid-2026 completion. Meanwhile, the Brazil Alumar ramp provides volume resilience across the smelting portfolio.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Alcoa is leaning on Alumar’s ramp and agile sourcing to bridge upstream gaps and tariff friction. Watch the cadence of San Ciprián’s restart, tariff pass-through in contracts, and regional premia trends. If physical tightness persists, disciplined sales mix could translate output gains into durable cash flow.

Mueller Arkansas copper fittings plant expansion boosts US HVAC and plumbing supply

Mueller Industries

Mueller Industries announced the Mueller Arkansas copper fittings plant expansion. The $7.5mn project targets distribution and packaging. The Wynne site will add 60 jobs over two years. Streamline will support tubing, fittings, valves, and related components. The plan strengthens US copper products for HVAC, plumbing, and refrigeration.

Why this matters for supply chains

The Mueller Arkansas copper fittings plant expansion enhances domestic availability. Therefore, contractors may see steadier lead times and lower logistics risk. Packaging upgrades should increase throughput and order accuracy. Meanwhile, proximity to end users supports medical gas and industrial systems.

Mueller’s Streamline brand anchors this investment. As a result, the network can serve OEMs and distributors more efficiently. Customers can benefit from regional inventory and faster replenishment. The Mueller Arkansas copper fittings plant expansion aligns with reshoring momentum.

Copper-intensive demand remains resilient. HVAC retrofits, building services, and cold chain projects continue to grow. Consequently, component readiness is strategic for utilities and commercial builds. This expansion positions Mueller to capture downstream opportunities.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Targeted brownfield spending often beats greenfield risk for speed and ROI. Mueller is optimizing the midstream links that actually bottleneck delivery. Watch hiring cadence and outbound accuracy metrics as early proof of execution.

US Antimony feedstock sourcing expands to secure smelter supply

US Antimony feedstock

US Antimony feedstock sourcing broadened across the US and overseas to stabilize operations. The company moved to secure inputs for its Montana and Mexico smelters. As a result, it advanced domestic mining claims and lined up new international suppliers. However, it also flagged issues with Australian material quality and logistics.

Domestic expansion: Alaska and Montana

US Antimony feedstock sourcing grew with new Alaska claims, including a 150-acre site near Fairbanks. The firm expects faster permitting since the land is neither federal nor state. Meanwhile, reacquired claims beside its Montana smelter should deliver stibnite within months. Therefore, domestic ore should lower supply risk and trucking distances.

International diversification: Bolivia and Chad

Bolivia will supply up to 150 t/month of antimony flake starting in early 2026. A 10 t pilot shipment arrives at the Montana smelter in August. Additionally, two sources in Chad will feed the Madero smelter, starting with 80 t. Subsequent deliveries should reach 100 t/month to support steady throughput. Canada also lifted feedstock to 857 t year-to-date, up 121 percent.

Australian sourcing faces setbacks following a 50 t shipment held 82 days by Chinese customs. Concurrently, incoming ore showed elevated arsenic and iron, pressuring processing costs. However, broader sourcing and scrap blending can offset penalties and maintain recoveries. Therefore, the portfolio approach underpins more reliable antimony supply for strategic markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Diversification is the right hedge as geopolitics and impurities raise feedstock risk. Watch ramp discipline in Bolivia and Chad and impurity management in Montana. If logistics hold, US Antimony can claw back margin despite uneven market conditions.

Aclara-Stanford rare earth partnership to accelerate HREE supply

Aclara

Aclara-Stanford rare earth partnership targets AI-driven discovery of heavy rare earths. The Aclara-Stanford rare earth partnership will deploy predictive models to map ionic clays. As a result, the effort aims to build a reliable HREE supply chain for magnets.

AI-driven exploration and Mineral-X roadmap

The partners will collaborate through Stanford’s Mineral-X, focusing on regolith and ionic-clay mineralization. They will exchange technical data, co-author papers, and run pilot projects. Meanwhile, predictive modeling should sharpen drill targets and cut discovery risk. Therefore, the Aclara-Stanford rare earth partnership links research to commercialization faster.

Integrated mining-to-magnets plan and Brazil timeline

Aclara pursues an integrated strategy from mining to magnet production. Its Carina Project in Goiás targets 191 t/yr of DyTb and 4,736 t/yr of total rare earth oxides. Operations are expected to start in 2028, supporting EV motor and wind magnet demand. Consequently, Carina could diversify non-Chinese heavy rare earth supply for OEMs.

Global OEMs want localized, resilient magnet materials. However, heavy rare earth elements remain constrained and price sensitive. By combining AI targeting and staged pilots, the partners can lower exploration costs. As a result, bankability may improve for HREE projects aligned with clean-energy supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

AI-guided geology is moving from concept to competitive advantage in rare earths. If Carina delivers Dy/Tb as planned, this tie-up could reset HREE sourcing dynamics for Western magnet makers.

Antofagasta 1H copper output rises on Chilean concentrators

Antofagasta

Antofagasta 1H copper output rose 10.6pc to 314,900t. Antofagasta 1H copper output benefited from Los Pelambres and Centinela. Antofagasta 1H copper output still faced weaker cathode performance.

Concentrate gains offset cathode declines

Second-quarter copper production increased to 160,100t, up 3.1pc year on year. Los Pelambres delivered 143,200t in 1H, up 8.1pc. Meanwhile, its 2Q output rose 4.9pc quarter on quarter to 73,300t on stronger grades and recoveries. Centinela produced 116,200t in 1H, supported by an 84pc surge in concentrate to 80,300t. However, Centinela’s cathode volumes fell 27.5pc to 35,800t.

Centinela’s 2Q copper rose 9pc quarter on quarter to 60,600t. Concentrate advanced 24pc to 44,500t after maintenance completion. As a result, higher throughput and recoveries underpinned the quarter. However, cathode fell 18.7pc to 16,100t on lower grades and processing rates.

Guidance intact as molybdenum surges

Antofagasta reaffirmed 2025 guidance at 660,000–700,000t. Rising by-product output strengthens cost resilience. Molybdenum production climbed 42.3pc to 7,400t in 1H. Los Pelambres contributed 5,700t, up 35.7pc, while Centinela added 1,700t, up 70pc. Second-quarter molybdenum reached 4,400t, up 76pc year on year and 42pc quarter on quarter.

Leach operations softened across the portfolio. Antucoya produced 39,500t of cathode in 1H, down 2pc. Zaldivar delivered 16,000t, down 15.3pc. Therefore, stronger concentrators are counterbalancing weaker leach output.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Concentrator momentum is carrying 2025 performance while leach assets lag. Watch sustained grade trends and plant stability at Los Pelambres and Centinela. Robust molybdenum credits could cushion unit costs if copper prices wobble.

Zangge Mamicuo lithium project secures mining licence in Tibet

Mamicuo Li

Zangge Mamicuo lithium project secured a mining licence in Tibet. The approval clears a path to salt-lake production. Zangge Mamicuo lithium project now targets a 50,000 t/yr first phase. Therefore, Zangge Mamicuo lithium project advances toward near-term construction.

Licence scope and resources

The licence covers 115.36km² and includes lithium, boron, and potassium. Proven resources total 2.1774mn t LCE. Zangge holds a 26.95% stake in the asset. The permit was issued on 15 July and runs to 30 April 2030.

Build plan, power needs, and portfolio moves

Zangge will start constructing a 50,000 t/yr lithium carbonate plant in Q3. Construction should take nine to twelve months. Phase two adds 50,000–80,000 t/yr after full ramp. However, power reliability will determine second-phase timing. Meanwhile, Zangge produces lithium carbonate at Qarhan, with 2024 output of 11,566t. The company plans stakes in Jiezechaka and Longmucuo projects. It will acquire 39% of Tibet Guoneng Mining for 4.68bn yuan. As a result, integrated assets could strengthen China’s battery materials supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This licence elevates Tibet’s role in China’s brine-based lithium strategy. Execution now hinges on power stability and brine processing performance. Watch phase-two timing, capex discipline, and offtake alignment with cathode makers.

China zirconium sponge prices set to ease as costs fall and demand slows

Zirconium Sponge

China zirconium sponge prices are likely to fall through the third quarter. Producers see weaker spot buying from acetic acid users. Therefore, China zirconium sponge prices face pressure despite steady contract deliveries.

Producers adjust output and pricing

Liaoning Huagao maintains normal runs to serve long-standing Q3 contracts. The firm expects softer spot values ahead. Meanwhile, Citic Jinzhou sells inventory and keeps output curtailed. Chaoyang Orient lowers run rates and moved small lots at Yn150/kg. It focuses on 2024 nuclear-grade sponge contracts with overseas customers. BaoTi Huashen accepted lower bids recently and sold Q3 tons at Yn155/kg. As a result, China zirconium sponge prices reflect defensive producer strategies.

Downstream softness tightens the market balance

Demand from zirconium mill products remains tepid this year. At the same time, acetic acid sector buying has slowed noticeably. About 65-70pc of zirconium goes to mill products, with 30-35pc to acetic acid. The mix amplifies price sensitivity when either segment weakens. Only a limited group produces sponge in China, concentrating supply dynamics. Operators include Chaoyang Orient, BaoTi Huashen, Citic Jinzhou, and Liaoning Huagao. Therefore, any run-rate changes can move sentiment quickly. China zirconium sponge prices could soften further if Q3 inquiries lag.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The near-term tone stays bearish until acetic acid orders stabilize. Watch producer run-rate guidance and tender frequency for a floor. Contracted nuclear-grade volumes may cushion declines but won’t lift spot alone.

China molybdenum concentrate output rises on alloy demand in 1H

Molybdenum

China molybdenum concentrate output increased in the first half. China molybdenum concentrate output reached 67,568t, up 4.2 percent year on year. Strong ferro-moly purchases by steelmakers supported higher operating rates.

Demand lifts production despite softer steel sentiment

Steelmakers bought 75,000–76,000t of ferro-moly in 1H. That was about 10 percent higher than last year. As a result, producers raised runs and stabilized supply. China molybdenum concentrate output therefore tracked end-use alloy demand. Procurement for stainless and high-strength steels underpinned volumes.

June dip masks regional divergence

June production fell to 10,550t, down month on month and year on year. Planned maintenance at several mines drove the decline. However, Henan limited the pullback with 3,335t in June. Output there slipped 0.8 percent from May but rose 6.3 percent year on year. Meanwhile, Heilongjiang dropped to 891t, sharply lower on both bases. Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia produced 1,208t and 1,530t, also softer year on year.

Outlook: supply steadies as maintenance eases

Producers expect steadier runs as maintenance programs end. Therefore, China molybdenum concentrate output should align with alloy offtake. Watch ferro-moly tender volumes and spot premiums for direction. Substitution risk remains low given performance needs in critical steels.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Moly demand remains tethered to high-spec steel orders, not broad steel cycles. Regional variability matters: Henan’s resilience offsets northern softness. Pricing will track ferro-moly tenders and mine maintenance cadence into Q3.

Perpetua Resources antimony project funding surges to $474mn

Perpetua Resources

Perpetua Resources antimony project secured an extra $49mn in July. After June financings, Perpetua Resources antimony project totals $474mn. The fresh capital supports construction of Idaho’s Stibnite project.

Financing details and permitting momentum

National Bank of Canada and BMO bought 3.7mn shares for $49mn. Earlier, they purchased 24.6mn shares for $325mn. Paulson & Co. added a $100mn private placement. The company also secured its final federal permit in April. Therefore, capital and permitting now align for execution.

Strategic supply implications and next steps

Stibnite contains 148mn pounds of antimony reserves. China suspended antimony exports to the United States in December. The United States produced no marketable antimony in 2024. As a result, the Perpetua Resources antimony project can cut import dependence. Antimony supports defense, flame retardants, and lead-alloy batteries. Perpetua will deploy proceeds to early works and procurement. Meanwhile, pacing will track prices, logistics, and workforce availability. Therefore, disciplined spend and clear milestones will sustain momentum.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This raise narrows America’s antimony gap as geopolitics tighten supply. Watch offtake timing, early-works progress, and cost control through 2026.

Almonty tungsten plant funding accelerates Sangdong build and U.S. defense supply

Almonty

Almonty tungsten plant funding reached $90mn in its Nasdaq debut. Almonty tungsten plant funding will prioritize the Sangdong tungsten oxide facility. The company sold 20mn shares on 14 July. Meanwhile, proceeds will also support working capital.

Sangdong focus and defense offtake

The funding accelerates construction of the Sangdong tungsten oxide facility. Almonty holds a binding supply deal with Tungsten Parts Wyoming. The agreement targets domestic defense applications for tungsten oxide. Therefore, the project strengthens U.S. tungsten supply-chain resilience.

Market outlook and corporate positioning

Demand for tungsten in defense and technology is rising. As a result, offtake visibility and pricing stability could improve. The company is shifting its incorporation to the United States. Meanwhile, it operates projects in South Korea, Portugal, and Spain. Investors view Almonty tungsten plant funding as a lever to diversify supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Almonty’s equity raise ties capital to near-term processing capacity and long-term defense demand. Execution now depends on plant delivery, oxide qualification, and steady feedstock. Watch construction milestones and contract ramp with TPW.

Trialco emissions case: $1mn settlement triggers compliance overhaul

Trialco

Trialco emissions case leads to a $1mn settlement and compliance overhaul. The secondary aluminum smelter agreed to changes at its Chicago Heights facility. The consent decree follows federal claims of hazardous air pollutant emissions. Trialco will implement an OM&M plan and pursue a new FESOP permit.

Consent decree terms and timeline

The consent decree mandates new monitoring and operating standards at Trialco. The company must assess its capture and collection system for improvements. A 30-day public comment period runs through 8 August before final filing. Trialco has already upgraded equipment to meet federal compliance requirements.

Industry impact and competitive dynamics

The Trialco emissions case signals stricter oversight for secondary aluminum smelters. EPA violations in 2021 and 2023 preceded this enforcement action. The company did not admit liability under the proposed decree. Operational changes may raise costs, but they reduce regulatory risk.

Market effects should remain limited unless further closures occur. However, buyers may see tighter specs and documentation on emissions controls. As a result, contracts could include monitoring clauses and audit rights. The Trialco emissions case underscores ESG due diligence across scrap supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This settlement pushes U.S. recyclers toward uniform OM&M and transparent reporting. Competitive advantage will favor plants with efficient capture systems and low-carbon power. Watch final decree language and any precedent for sector-wide FESOP conditions.

MP Apple recycled rare earth magnets deal anchors U.S. circular supply chain

Apple

MP Apple recycled rare earth magnets move from pilot to scale. The $500mn long-term deal commits Apple to 100% recycled magnets made in the U.S. MP will process post-industrial and end-of-life magnets at Mountain Pass. Magnet shipments start in 2027 and scale across Apple devices.

Partnership scope and buildout

The Fort Worth plant will make recycled rare earth magnets for Apple devices. MP will install a dedicated recycling line at Mountain Pass. The project follows a five-year pilot between the companies. Meanwhile, DOD funding supports 10,000 t per year magnet capacity. Together, these steps anchor a domestic magnet ecosystem.

Supply-chain impact and circularity

The MP Apple recycled rare earth magnets deal strengthens U.S. resilience. It lowers exposure to export controls and shipping risks. As a result, Apple gains traceable inputs and lower Scope 3 risk. The approach valorizes post-industrial scrap and end-of-life returns. It can reduce NdPr demand for virgin mining.

Market timing favors localized magnet ramp. EVs, electronics, and wind keep magnet demand strong. However, execution depends on stable scrap flows and yields. No volume terms were disclosed, adding planning uncertainty. Therefore, early offtake scheduling will be critical.

MP Apple recycled rare earth magnets will ship from 2027. Production will scale to hundreds of millions of devices. Meanwhile, Apple can showcase circular content at volume. The domestic hub could attract new industrial customers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This partnership hard-wires circularity into a strategic U.S. magnet base. Watch scrap collection logistics, recovery rates, and alloy performance at scale. Policy support and OEM offtakes will determine the speed of the ramp.