US Senate energy and tax bill threatens clean energy incentives

US Senate

The US Senate energy and tax bill is set to reshape the country’s energy landscape. Senate Republicans introduced measures that slash clean energy tax credits, expand fossil fuel leasing, and extend trillions in tax cuts. The vote could pass as early as today, with deep consequences for renewable investors. The US Senate energy and tax bill also introduces excise taxes on wind and solar projects sourcing equipment from "prohibited foreign entities."

Major cuts to clean energy programs

The bill eliminates most climate provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act, including $7,500 EV tax credits and wind-solar incentives. Renewable industry leaders warn of mass job losses and halted investment. Meanwhile, biofuels, nuclear, and geothermal maintain partial support under adjusted credit structures. The new hydrogen credit deadline is January 2028.

Fossil fuels gain momentum

Oil and gas benefit heavily from the bill. It mandates Gulf of Mexico lease sales, reduces royalty rates, and restores tax deductions worth hundreds of millions. As a result, domestic drilling will accelerate. President Trump has demanded Congress finalize the bill before 4 July, framing it as a cornerstone of US energy independence.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The bill represents a decisive shift toward fossil fuel prioritization at the expense of renewables. For metals and critical minerals investors, reduced clean energy incentives may slow downstream demand, but fossil fuel expansion could sustain industrial inputs tied to oil and gas infrastructure.

G7 Critical Minerals Strategy Targets Supply Chain Security and Diversification

G7

G7 Agrees on Critical Minerals Action Plan

G7 leaders have introduced a comprehensive strategy to secure critical minerals supply chains and strengthen national and economic security. The group announced the Critical Minerals Action Plan, which focuses on addressing shortages, mitigating market disruptions, and diversifying production. It includes onshoring mining, processing, and recycling to reduce reliance on single markets.

The plan also emphasizes supporting mineral-rich emerging economies by expanding local processing capacity and improving artisanal mining practices. By tackling investment barriers, the G7 hopes to build more resilient global supply chains.

Standards-Based Markets and Investment Drive

The G7 agreed to develop a roadmap for standards-based markets in critical minerals by year end. This roadmap will establish criteria for traceability and transparency in cooperation with international stakeholders. Leaders stressed that non-market policies in the sector, such as China's restrictive measures, threaten access to rare earths and other essential materials.

Additionally, the G7 urged multilateral banks and private lenders to increase financing for critical mineral projects. Innovative funding mechanisms and risk-sharing initiatives are expected to mobilize private capital and secure long-term supply. Partnerships with developing economies will focus on infrastructure development and overcoming investment hurdles.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The G7’s push for coordinated action underscores growing concerns over China’s dominance in critical minerals. By aligning on standards and investment, the bloc is signaling intent to build secure, transparent, and sustainable supply chains. However, successful execution will depend on how quickly member nations and financial institutions translate commitments into actionable projects.

European Aluminium Calls for Unified CO2 Calculation Standards

European Aluminium

Industry Push for Harmonised Emissions Methodology

European Aluminium has urged the EU to establish a universal methodology for calculating carbon emissions across aluminium value chains. The industry body warned that fragmented national approaches create compliance burdens and hinder the EU’s decarbonisation targets. Member states are currently using varied methods that include renewable energy credits, recycled inputs, and innovative processes, but lack of alignment reduces comparability and efficiency.

The association addressed its concerns directly to European Commission leaders, stressing that inconsistent emissions reporting undermines transparency. It highlighted the need for alignment to support the EU’s broader climate strategy, particularly as aluminium plays a critical role in low-carbon industries such as automotive, construction, and packaging.

Regulatory Landscape and Policy Recommendations

European Aluminium pointed to ongoing regulatory frameworks such as the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) standards for EV batteries. These regulations demonstrate momentum toward emissions accountability but also expose gaps caused by inconsistent calculation methods.

The group expressed support for the European Commission’s Clean Industrial Deal (CID), which aims to streamline reporting across EU institutions. However, it warned that achieving a single emissions calculation framework might require adjusting legislative deadlines to allow industry and regulators sufficient time for harmonisation.

The Metalnomist Commentary

A harmonised carbon calculation system would significantly reduce compliance costs for aluminium producers and ensure fair competition across the EU market. Without it, fragmented rules risk weakening Europe’s industrial base at a time when decarbonisation and strategic autonomy are top priorities. The call from European Aluminium underscores the urgency for the EU to deliver clarity and consistency.

European Aluminum CBAM Flaws Warning Highlights Competitiveness Risks

European Aluminum CBAM

European Aluminum CBAM flaws emerged as critical concerns as the industry association warned that the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism threatens bloc competitiveness ahead of tomorrow's European Parliament vote. The European Aluminum CBAM flaws assessment, conducted by Ramboll Management Consulting, identifies three fundamental design issues that could actively harm Europe's aluminum industry while providing unfair advantages to importers who avoid carbon costs across their full value chains.

Scrap Content Verification Creates Competitive Disadvantages

European Aluminum CBAM flaws include significant challenges in accurately verifying scrap content within aluminum products imported into the EU. The difficulty in verification enables importers to over-declare scrap content, avoiding carbon costs while redirecting higher scrap content products toward EU markets for financial incentives. This manipulation provides importers substantial advantages over EU producers who face carbon costs across their complete value chain operations.

Meanwhile, Ramboll recommends assigning default values to all imported primary and secondary metal to eliminate domestic disadvantages. This approach would prevent gaming of scrap content declarations while ensuring competitive parity between domestic and imported aluminum products. The current verification system's inadequacy undermines CBAM's intended purpose of leveling competitive playing fields.

Aluminum scrap

Alumina Inclusion Could Drastically Increase EU Costs

However, the study argues that adding aluminum feedstock alumina to CBAM parameters could raise EU alumina costs by 12-16% by 2030, escalating to 24% by 2034. These cost increases would severely impact European aluminum smelter competitiveness while potentially driving production offshore. Ramboll recommends excluding alumina from CBAM until comprehensive downstream sector coverage ensures balanced implementation.

Therefore, the report suggests creating dedicated emissions trading scheme benchmarks for alumina rather than incorporating it directly into CBAM mechanisms. This alternative approach would address carbon leakage concerns without imposing excessive cost burdens on European aluminum producers. The timing of alumina inclusion requires careful coordination with broader CBAM implementation phases.

Indirect Emissions Scope Expansion Presents Implementation Challenges

Furthermore, expanding CBAM beyond direct scope 1 emissions to include indirect scope 2 and 3 emissions would significantly increase CBAM fees and European aluminum costs. European producers face indirect carbon costs through electricity pricing that don't correlate with their actual emissions profiles. Third-country producers avoid equivalent carbon costs while CBAM lacks verification mechanisms for electricity-related emissions.

As a result, European Aluminum director general Paul Voss urged immediate CBAM implementation pause for aluminum until design flaws receive correction and competitiveness impacts undergo proper assessment. The association demands potential aluminum removal from CBAM scope if ongoing reviews demonstrate continued harm rather than protection. Alternative carbon leakage protection measures may require extension beyond 2030 if CBAM proves ineffective.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The European Aluminum association's CBAM critique highlights fundamental tensions between climate policy objectives and industrial competitiveness, demonstrating how well-intentioned carbon border mechanisms can inadvertently disadvantage domestic producers they aim to protect. The complexity of aluminum value chains, from alumina feedstock through scrap recycling, creates verification challenges that sophisticated importers can exploit, undermining CBAM's core premise of ensuring fair competition while driving global decarbonization.

India Approves $1.88bn National Critical Mineral Mission

India Mineral

India's government approved $1.88bn for its National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM). This aims to secure a sustainable supply of vital minerals.

Mission Goals and Funding

The mines ministry will implement the NCMM over seven years, from 2024-25 to 2030-31. The mission, costing Rs163bn ($1.88bn), expects Rs180bn in PSU and company investments. The goal is to encourage Indian firms to acquire overseas critical mineral assets. It also seeks to boost trade with resource-rich nations and build a domestic stockpile. Critical minerals include cobalt, gallium, nickel, lithium, molybdenum, rare earths, and titanium.

Boosting Domestic Production and Processing

Furthermore, India will increase domestic critical mineral production. This involves expanding exploration and mining. Government agencies will launch 1,200 exploration projects. Over 100 critical mineral resource blocks will be auctioned by 2030-31. Four mineral processing parks will be established to enhance domestic processing. The government already removed customs duties on most critical minerals in the 2024-25 Union budget. Import duties on scrap, black mass, and e-waste will also be reviewed under the NCMM.

Syrah Resources Secures $165 Million Tax Credit for Expansion in the U.S.

Syrah Resources

Boosting Production Capabilities

Syrah Resources, an Australian graphite producer, has been awarded a substantial $165 million tax credit under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. This financial boost is earmarked for potential expansion of its Vidalia Active Anode Material (AAM) plant located in Louisiana.

Expansion Plans and Raw Material Sourcing

The tax credit will facilitate the expansion of the Vidalia facility’s production capacity from 11,250 metric tonnes per year to 45,000 metric tonnes per year. This significant increase will support the growing demand for anode materials necessary for battery technologies. Additionally, the Vidalia facility processes natural graphite from Syrah's Balama operation in Mozambique, which is integral to the production of high-quality anode materials.

Texas Instruments Secures $1.6 Billion in CHIPS Act Funding for Semiconductor Expansion

Texas Instruments

The U.S. Department of Commerce has awarded $1.6 billion to Texas Instruments under the CHIPS and Science Act, supporting the construction of two semiconductor fabrication plants in Sherman, Texas, and one in Lehi, Utah. This funding is part of the U.S. government’s push to strengthen domestic semiconductor production and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains.

Texas Instruments is currently building three large-scale 300mm wafer fabrication facilities, all of which are set to operate using 100% renewable electricity by 2027. The Sherman facilities are expected to commence operations in 2025, while the Utah facility is scheduled to begin production in 2026.

Additional Federal Incentives Expected

Beyond the CHIPS Act funding, Texas Instruments anticipates an additional $6 billion to $8 billion in funding from the U.S. Treasury Department's Investment Tax Credit, which supports manufacturing investments under the federal initiative.

These investments align with the Biden administration’s semiconductor strategy, aiming to enhance domestic chip production, support clean energy initiatives, and boost national security in the semiconductor supply chain.

NATO Prioritizes Critical Metals for Strengthening Defense Supply Chains

NATO

NATO has unveiled a list of 12 critical raw materials deemed essential for the production of advanced defense systems and military equipment, underscoring the need for secure and resilient supply chains in the face of growing geopolitical tensions. This initiative is part of NATO’s broader strategy to safeguard its technological edge and ensure the operational readiness of its member nations.

Key Critical Metals for Defense Applications

The metals identified by NATO include aluminium, beryllium, cobalt, gallium, germanium, graphite, lithium, manganese, platinum, rare earth elements, titanium, and tungsten. These materials play a pivotal role in the development of military aircraft, missiles, tanks, and submarines, among other defense technologies. For example:

• Aluminium: Used in military aircraft and missiles for its lightweight and high-strength properties.

• Graphite: Integral to the production of tanks and corvettes, known for its thermal stability and strength.

• Cobalt: Essential for creating superalloys used in jet engines and submarines to withstand extreme temperatures.

NATO's secretary-general Mark Rutte emphasized the need to ramp up defense production and spending during a recent address in Brussels, calling it a “top priority” amid escalating security challenges.

Building Resilient Supply Chains: NATO's Strategic Focus

NATO's roadmap for securing critical materials encompasses five strategic lines of action, including:

1. Strategic Stockpiling: Ensuring reserves of key materials to mitigate supply disruptions.
2. Recycling: Harnessing recycled materials to reduce dependency on new mining operations.
3. Substitution: Researching alternative materials to replace scarce or geopolitically sensitive metals.

This comprehensive approach reflects NATO’s commitment to reducing vulnerabilities in defense-critical supply chains. Geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding rare earth elements and other critical metals, have heightened the complexity of defense manufacturing. For instance, trade disputes involving key suppliers like China and Russia have underscored the need for diversified sourcing and secure logistics.

Geopolitical Implications and Defense Strategy

The move aligns with broader global concerns about critical materials. Several NATO member states rely heavily on imports for materials like rare earth elements, predominantly sourced from China, which controls over 60% of global rare earth production. NATO’s strategy highlights the importance of mitigating this dependency through alliances, domestic production, and innovative technologies.

The roadmap also acknowledges the role of emerging economies in supplying materials like lithium and cobalt, critical for both defense applications and the burgeoning electric vehicle (EV) market. Collaborations with these nations may be essential in ensuring a steady supply of critical metals.

U.S. Department of Energy Amplifies Commitment to Critical Mineral Technologies with $17 Million Investment

Infinite Elements

Strengthening National Energy Security through Advanced Material Innovations

The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) has announced a significant investment of $17 million in 14 cutting-edge critical mineral technology projects. This strategic initiative, spanning 11 states, is poised to bolster the nation's energy security and enhance domestic supply chains essential for clean and advanced technologies.

Targeted Improvements Across the Board

These projects, orchestrated by the DoE's Critical Materials Collaborative, aim to refine manufacturing processes for key technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells, semiconductors for electric vehicles, and components for wind and solar energy solutions. The focus extends to magnets used in wind turbines and motors, alongside advancements in battery and electronic technologies.

Key domestic materials like lithium, nickel, cobalt, rare earth elements, platinum group metals, silicon carbide, copper, and graphite are under exploration to expedite their commercial readiness, as per the DoE's strategy.

Highlighting Innovative Projects and Collaborations

Among the 14 projects, four are dedicated to developing magnets that require fewer critical materials. These are taking place in notable institutions and companies including the University of Texas at Arlington, Iowa State University’s Ames National Laboratory, ABB Inc., and Niron Magnetics Inc.

Furthermore, the DoE has funded six projects focused on enhancing the processing and manufacturing operations of critical materials. Collaborators in these projects include Free Form Fibers, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, the University of North Dakota, Ames National Laboratory, Tennessee's Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Summit Nanotech Corporation.

Recovery and recycling efforts are also part of this initiative, with two projects aimed at reclaiming critical materials from scrap and recycled products. These are underway at Texas Agricultural and Mechanical University and the metal recovery company, Infinite Elements.

The initiative's final push includes projects designed to reduce critical material content in clean energy technologies, involving innovators like hydrogen specialist Celadyne Technologies and battery pioneer COnovate.

Australia Invests A$138.5 Million in Critical Minerals to Strengthen Domestic Supply Chains

Resource Capital Funds

In a significant move to bolster its domestic critical minerals sector, the Australian government announced a new round of investments and grants totaling A$138.5 million ($88.4 million) over the past week. This follows the recent approval of the Future Made in Australia (FMA) investment framework, aimed at diversifying the nation's critical mineral supply chains and creating jobs to meet national security, climate, and energy goals.

Key Investments to Support Domestic Mineral Production

Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King highlighted that the majority of these investments will be channeled through Resource Capital Funds (RCF), a specialist investor focused on metal extraction. RCF will invest $75 million in decarbonization projects within the critical minerals sector, marking a significant step in Australia's ongoing efforts to support cleaner, more sustainable mining operations.

Additionally, grants totaling $13.4 million were awarded to five mineral processors across the country to aid the early-stage development of rare earth, vanadium, fluorite, and graphite plants. These projects will play a pivotal role in meeting both domestic and global demand for these vital materials.

This new funding comes on top of A$303.2 million in loans that have already been provided to Iluka Resources for its Eneabba Rare Earths Refinery project. This refinery, located in Western Australia, is a key part of Australia's strategy to become a more significant player in the global rare earths market.

Strategic Alignment with Global Security and Climate Goals

Minister King emphasized the critical importance of these investments in diversifying global supply chains for materials that are crucial to clean energy, climate initiatives, and national security. Australia's growing role in the global critical minerals supply chain is reinforced by its recent FMA package, which allocated $14.3 billion to support the minerals sector, including tax incentives for production.

Australia's commitment to securing its mineral supply chain aligns closely with the goals of its international partners. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's government has been actively fostering partnerships to ensure a stable and diversified critical mineral supply. Notably, a year into office, the Australian government signed the Climate, Critical Minerals, and Clean Energy Transformation Agreement with the US, which seeks to accelerate the diversification of clean energy supply chains and ensure stable mineral supply for both countries.

Additionally, the US has shown increasing interest in Australian critical minerals, with the US government recently supporting Australian miner Lynas in its efforts to establish a rare earth plant in the US. These moves further underscore the global strategic importance of securing a steady supply of critical minerals like rare earths, lithium, and vanadium.

Revival of Madagascar's Toliara Minerals Project: A New Chapter for Critical Minerals

Toliara Minerals Project

Madagascar's government has officially ended the suspension on the Toliara critical minerals project, signaling a significant step forward in the exploitation of key mineral resources after a prolonged five-year break. This move paves the way for the resumption of mining activities critical for global industries, particularly in the production of titanium and zirconium.

Unlocking Potential: Toliara's Rich Resource Base

The Toliara project, initially stalled in November 2019 due to negotiations over fiscal terms, holds a comprehensive mining permit for extracting valuable minerals such as ilmenite, rutile, and zircon. These materials are essential for various industrial applications, including manufacturing aircraft, electronics, and ceramics. The project's development promises substantial outputs, with a feasibility study projecting an annual production capacity of 1.03 million tonnes of zircon, rutile, and ilmenite over a 38-year lifespan.

Strategic Developments and Future Prospects

The project's rejuvenation follows the acquisition of Base Resources, the original project owner, by US-based Energy Fuels in October 2024. This acquisition aligns with Energy Fuels' strategic interests in diversifying their mineral portfolio, especially focusing on monazite, a mineral sand rich in rare earth elements. These elements are crucial for Energy Fuels' operations at the White Mesa mill in Utah, where they aim to produce rare earth oxides.

Energy Fuels plans to reach a financial investment decision (FID) on the Toliara project by early 2026 and is exploring the addition of rare earth elements to the mining permit, expanding the project's scope and potential market impact.

UK Narrows Scope of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

CBAM

The UK government has announced a scaled-back version of its planned Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which will now only apply to a select group of sectors. The measure, designed to level the playing field for UK industries and encourage decarbonization in other countries, will come into effect on January 1, 2027.

Initially, the CBAM was set to cover a wider range of sectors, including glass and ceramics. However, after careful consideration, the government has decided to exclude these sectors due to their lower carbon intensity and reduced risk of carbon leakage.

The revised CBAM will now impact the following sectors:

• Aluminium
• Cement
• Fertiliser
• Hydrogen
• Iron and steel

The mechanism will impose a carbon price on imported goods from these sectors, taking into account both direct and indirect emissions. The government will establish a default emissions value for each product, which will be used in cases where verified emissions data is unavailable.

The CBAM rates will be determined quarterly based on the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) price, adjusted for carbon price support and free allowances. Imported goods will be subject to the CBAM rate, even if they have already been subject to a carbon price in their country of origin.

To mitigate the potential impact on small and medium-sized businesses, the government has raised the value threshold for CBAM application to £50,000 per year. Additionally, a criminal offense will be introduced to deter CBAM evasion.

The UK government plans to establish an industry working group to engage with affected sectors and an international group to collaborate with relevant exporter governments.

EU BEV Industry Faces Challenges Without Strong CO2 Targets and Tariffs

The European Union's battery electric vehicle (BEV) market is at risk of losing ground to Chinese-owned brands unless the EU enforces its planned CO2 emission reduction targets along with newly proposed tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs). According to Transport & Environment (T&E), a leading environmental lobby group, these measures are essential to maintaining the competitive edge of European carmakers. The European Commission announced today that it will proceed with provisional tariffs on Chinese-manufactured EVs, signaling a critical step in addressing market imbalances.

CO2 Targets Key to Curbing Chinese BEV Imports

T&E's analysis shows a significant increase in the market share of Chinese-owned BEV brands, projecting that imports will constitute over 12% of the EU market this year, up from 8% last year. In contrast, non-Chinese brands are expected to see a slight rise to 13%. Without the enforcement of CO2 reduction targets, T&E forecasts that Chinese brands could capture nearly 15% of the market by next year, a trend that could weaken local BEV producers unless incentives are aligned to encourage a shift towards carbon-neutral vehicles.

The EU has established CO2 targets that require all automakers to achieve net zero emissions across their fleets by 2035, with interim milestones starting next year. However, recent debates and scrutiny have created uncertainty, prompting resistance from industry players. Aurelien De Meaux, CEO of Electra, a Paris-based charging start-up, emphasized the need for policy stability, stating, "The path to 2035, including specific CO2 milestones, was established in 2014 and 2019. We rely on this stability to make informed and effective investments."

Tariffs Alone May Not Protect Western BEV Producers

While the European Commission's provisional tariffs aim to level the playing field, a report by the Rhodium Group suggests that tariffs alone might not suffice. Chinese brands continue to enjoy profit margins that can absorb the costs of EU tariffs, whereas Western brands like Tesla and BMW, which manufacture in China, could see diminished profitability if tariffs are enforced. This dynamic has led to concerns that the tariffs may inadvertently harm European carmakers with overseas production facilities.

Additionally, China's response to these tariffs has included the potential for retaliatory measures on other goods, and its automakers are considering expanding production capacity overseas. Since 2022, 11 Chinese-owned EV plants have been planned in Europe, but only three have advanced past initial planning, primarily due to tariff uncertainties.

The situation is further complicated by instability in the battery production sector. According to T&E, 59% of the planned battery production capacity in Europe is "less likely" to proceed by 2030, adding to the challenges faced by the EU's BEV industry. Maintaining a clear and consistent regulatory approach will be crucial to incentivizing local production and reducing dependency on imports, ensuring the long-term sustainability of Europe's BEV market.

EU States Approve Tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles Amidst Ongoing Negotiations

The European Union has taken a significant step towards imposing tariffs on Chinese battery electric vehicle (BEV) imports, a decision that will have far-reaching implications for the global auto industry. On October 30, EU member states approved tariffs on Chinese BEV imports for the next five years. This move follows the European Commission's slight adjustments to the duty rates after receiving input from various stakeholders.

Tariffs Take Effect October 31

If no agreements are reached between the European Commission and individual companies, these definitive duties will be implemented starting on October 31. The proposed tariffs, which have been met with mixed reactions, required support from a qualified majority of 15 EU countries representing 65% of the population to pass. Despite opposition from Germany, which has raised concerns about the potential impact on the auto industry, the proposal was ultimately approved.

German MEP Michael Bloss criticized his country’s stance, stating, "This capitulation to China is not only weak; it harms Europe." Bloss, a spokesperson for the Greens on climate and industry policy, argues that stronger measures are necessary to protect European industry from unfair competition.

The European Commission continues to emphasize that any agreement reached with China must comply with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and be effective in addressing harmful subsidies. Negotiations between the EU and Chinese officials are ongoing, with China's commerce ministry confirming that discussions will resume on October 7.

The new countervailing duties, which add to the existing 10% import duty on BEVs, include a 17% tariff on BYD, a slight decrease from the earlier proposed rate. Geely’s rate was lowered to 18.8%, while Tesla, exporting from China, will face a 7.8% duty. Other companies that cooperated with the EU inquiry face a 20.7% tariff, and non-cooperating firms will be subject to a 35.3% duty.

Europe's Reliance on Nickel Pig Iron to Persist Until CBAM's Full Implementation

ANGLO AMERICAN

Europe’s stainless steel industry will continue to rely heavily on nickel pig iron (NPI) imports until the European Union's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) enters its definitive phase in 2026. John Eastwood, head of sales for stainless and specialty steel raw materials at Anglo American, confirmed this trend during the Nickel Institute Seminar at LME Week, indicating that Europe’s current scrap shortage and rising material costs have pushed producers to depend on the cheaper, more carbon-intensive Indonesian NPI. According to Jim Lennon, managing director of Red Door Research, from January to July alone, European imports amounted to 10,000 tons of nickel metal content.

The driving factor behind the shift is the increasing cost of raw materials combined with a scarcity of stainless steel scrap in Europe. Even as scrap prices drop, Eastwood does not foresee any immediate changes. He emphasized that only CBAM, the EU's effort to limit carbon leakage, will likely curb this reliance. In its trial phase, CBAM requires European importers to account for CO2 emissions linked to imported goods by purchasing emissions certificates, further affecting the industry’s sourcing strategies.

Industry Facing a Third Year of Decline

The European stainless steel industry continues to struggle. With demand expected to shrink for a third consecutive year in 2025, many flat producers are operating far below capacity. Acerinox, a Spanish producer recovering from a five-month strike, has also committed to using NPI as feedstock. Despite the excess production capacity, profitability isn’t the issue, according to Eastwood. “The problem is excess capacity," he said. Even Acerinox’s market absence barely impacted ferro-nickel sales.

By mid-2025, Eastwood anticipates demand recovery, driven by improved macroeconomic conditions and relaxed monetary policies. However, he highlighted industry criticisms of CBAM, particularly its exclusion of scope 3 emissions and its perceived role as a protectionist policy. "There are many holes in CBAM," Eastwood noted, pointing out inconsistencies such as the inclusion of ferro-nickel but the omission of refined nickel.

Future Projections for Nickel and Freight Costs

Anglo American forecasts the class 1 nickel market to hold surpluses in the coming years, while the class 2 market, including NPI and ferro-nickel, remains balanced or tight. Eastwood predicts stable nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) through 2025, dismissing any expectations of price spikes. Additionally, high freight costs are likely to limit imports of finished stainless steel into Europe next year, further weighing on the industry.

Colorado Set to Finalize CO2 Trading Rules, Bridging Emissions Programs

Colorado CO2

Colorado is on track to finalize new rules for its industrial CO2 emissions trading markets by the end of the year, marking a significant step in the state’s efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions. The revised regulations aim to streamline the state’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Energy Management (GEMM) rule, which has been under development, and integrate the two existing programs, GEMM 1 and GEMM 2, to enhance emissions reduction incentives.

Integrating GEMM 1 and GEMM 2 for Effective Emissions Control

The Colorado Air Pollution Control Division announced on September 30 that only minor adjustments were made to the initial draft of the trading rules released in July. These changes were based on public feedback collected through mid-August. The final draft seeks to address key differences between the two programs under the GEMM rule, which covers industrial facilities emitting 25,000 metric tonnes (t) or more of greenhouse gases (GHG) annually. Facilities under these programs are required to reduce their emissions by 20% from 2015 levels by 2030.

The GEMM rule includes two distinct approaches. The GEMM 1 program, launched in 2021, adopts an "intensity-based" method, setting emissions limits per unit of production, which allows for more flexibility in compliance. In contrast, GEMM 2, introduced in 2023, follows a traditional cap-and-trade system, imposing an overall emissions cap across 18 facilities. The draft rule aims to bridge these approaches by enabling GEMM 1 facilities to trade their emissions credits within the GEMM 2 market, thereby incentivizing broader compliance and emissions reduction.

The draft rule introduces a mechanism that allows GEMM 1 facilities to tag certain credits as "GEMM 2 eligible," starting in 2025. To qualify, these credits must represent a defined percentage reduction in total emissions, with the threshold becoming progressively stricter over time. Under the revised plan, GEMM 1 facilities can trade credits in the GEMM 2 market if they achieve a 10% reduction below a specific emissions level for two consecutive years (revised from three years). From 2027 onward, this threshold will increase to 20%, reflecting the state’s goal for more meaningful emissions cuts.

Additionally, both GEMM 1 and GEMM 2 credits come with a three-year use limit, ensuring that facilities act promptly to meet their emissions targets. Colorado will also hold annual auctions, providing an open market for buying and selling credits, thus enhancing the flexibility and accessibility of emissions trading across the state.

US Imposes Tariffs on Solar Imports from Four Asian Countries

US Solar

The U.S. Department of Commerce has imposed new duties on solar products imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The preliminary ruling, announced on Tuesday, claims that manufacturers in these countries have benefited from subsidies that allow them to undercut U.S. companies, thereby disrupting fair competition. The tariffs target crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells and modules, with rates ranging from less than 1% to nearly 293%, depending on the individual companies and their responses to Commerce’s inquiries.

Tariffs Range Widely, Affecting Industry Dynamics

U.S. Customs and Border Protection will now begin collecting cash deposits from importers to match the preliminary subsidy rates. The baseline rates are set as low as 2.85% for Vietnamese imports and as high as 23.06% for those from Thailand, but individual companies could face much higher tariffs if found to be "non-responsive" to Commerce’s investigation. These duties are retroactive by 90 days, adding pressure to the affected importers.

This action stems from a petition filed by the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee, a coalition of U.S. solar companies including FirstSolar, Mission Solar Energy, and Hanwha Q Cells. The group alleged that Chinese companies have been circumventing U.S. trade law by setting up production in Southeast Asia, exporting large volumes of subsidized solar products to the U.S. under the guise of local manufacturing. This allowed these companies to avoid duties imposed by previous investigations, leading to what the coalition claims is a distortion of the U.S. market.

In 2022, President Biden temporarily paused new duties from a related investigation to mitigate disruption in the U.S. solar market. However, critics argue that this gave Chinese companies an opportunity to shift their supply chains to Southeast Asia. Tim Brightbill, lead counsel for the coalition, expects the preliminary rates to rise as Commerce gathers more data from affected companies. "We are confident that the duty rates will increase as Commerce continues to investigate newly alleged subsidies," he said.

Industry Divided on the Impact of New Tariffs

The decision has sparked a debate within the U.S. clean energy sector. While manufacturers like FirstSolar support the tariffs as a means to protect domestic industry, other trade groups, such as the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE), warn that the tariffs could hinder the country’s decarbonization efforts. ACORE CEO Ray Long emphasized the need for a balanced approach, stating, "What America's clean energy sector needs right now is a balanced trade policy that sustains the progress we're making deploying clean energy and ramping up domestic manufacturing capabilities."

Commerce is set to release a preliminary antidumping determination on November 27, which could further affect the industry landscape. Petitioners have requested that Commerce issue final determinations on both countervailing and antidumping duties simultaneously, which would potentially arrive by April 11, 2025. Without joint issuance, a separate determination on countervailing duties could come as soon as February 10, 2025.

US Commerce Finalizes Tariffs on Aluminum Extrusions from 14 Countries

The US Department of Commerce

The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) has finalized duties on aluminum extrusions originating from 14 countries following a nearly year-long trade investigation. The duties, a combination of antidumping and countervailing tariffs, range from 2.02% to 376.85% for antidumping and 1.44% to 168.81% for countervailing measures. This investigation was initiated after a petition by the US Aluminum Extruders Coalition (USAEC) and the United Steelworkers union in October 2023.

The countries affected by the tariffs include major exporters such as China, India, South Korea, and Mexico, among others. These 14 nations accounted for 65% of U.S. imports of aluminum extrusions in 2023. Aluminum extrusions are widely used across industries such as construction and automotive, with products ranging from bars, rods, and hollow profiles to windows and doors.

Scope of Investigation and Product Impact

The products subject to these tariffs include aluminum and aluminum alloy bars, rods, tubes, pipes, and various structural components. The DOC's determination is a culmination of several affirmative rulings, including an antidumping determination in May 2024 and a countervailing ruling in March 2024. Each country involved in the investigation was assigned specific duty rates, with individual companies facing varying tariffs depending on their pricing behavior.

On 27 September, the DOC announced that cash deposit rates for foreign aluminum extruders would now be required. However, these rates will undergo further review through an administrative process, set to conclude within a year. A final vote by the International Trade Commission is expected on 30 October, which could influence the final implementation of the duties.

EU Weighs Extending CBAM to Downstream Industries

EU CBAM

The European Commission is evaluating the possibility of expanding the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to downstream sectors, a move anticipated by European steel associations and member states. The current CBAM focuses primarily on upstream industries, but this shift aims to curb the rising cost of downstream products and mitigate risks to local steel supply chains.

Steel associations like Eurofer strongly advocate for the CBAM’s extension, as they believe it is essential for controlling carbon emissions and managing increasing imports. The downstream industries have been notably absent from the current framework, a gap that stakeholders fear could lead to "carbon leakage"—where manufacturers relocate outside the EU to take advantage of less stringent climate regulations.

Italian steel association president Paolo Sangoi emphasized the need for a comprehensive approach in April, warning that neglecting downstream sectors would weaken the CBAM’s effectiveness. Steelmaker ArcelorMittal also advocates for "swift and effective" measures to protect the EU steel market, underscoring the importance of extending the CBAM.

Other countries such as Canada, the US, and ASEAN are considering their own versions of CBAM, while the UK plans to implement its CBAM in 2027. However, UK Steel is pushing for an earlier implementation in 2026 to align more closely with the EU's timeline.

US Treasury Proposes Expanded EV Charging Tax Credit

US EV

The US Department of the Treasury has proposed a new rule to clarify and expand the eligibility of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure for a key tax credit under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The rule, if enacted, could provide a significant boost to the nation’s EV charging network by incentivizing investment in charging ports.

Under the proposed changes, businesses would be able to claim the "30C" tax credit, which covers up to 30% of the installation costs — or up to $100,000 — for each individual charging port. This proposal marks a shift in the definition of “a single item of property,” offering greater clarity for project developers.

Impact on National EV Charging Goals

The Biden administration has set an ambitious goal to deploy at least 500,000 public EV charging ports by 2030, in line with its broader efforts to reduce US carbon emissions. Currently, there are 192,000 charging ports in operation across the country, with around 1,000 new ports being added each week. At this pace, the US is projected to meet its target by mid-2030. The proposed tax credit expansion could further accelerate this progress by making it more financially viable for businesses to invest in EV infrastructure, particularly in low-income and rural areas that are eligible for the credit.

The Treasury Department will accept public comments on the proposed rule for 60 days, and a public hearing may be scheduled if requested.