Rolls-Royce’s Trent 1000 Engine Wins Regulator Approval

Rolls-Royce’s Trent 1000 Engine

Regulators Approve Trent 1000 Durability Upgrade

US and European aviation regulators have jointly certified Rolls-Royce’s new high-pressure turbine (HPT) blade for the Trent 1000 engine. The blade is part of a broader durability enhancement kit that also includes upgrades to the combustion system and fuel spray nozzle. Rolls-Royce expects the package to more than double the engine’s time on wing before major service.

The certification from the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) enables Rolls-Royce to begin shipping upgraded engines to customers. New builds have already incorporated the improvements since January, while maintenance facilities worldwide have begun receiving retrofit kits.

Boosting Durability and Performance for the 787 Dreamliner

The Trent 1000, a competitor to GE Aerospace’s GEnx engine, powers Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner. The upgrade represents Rolls-Royce’s commitment to addressing past reliability issues with the engine, which has faced scrutiny over premature maintenance needs.

The first phase of upgrades improves cooling to the HPT blade by 40pc, while a second package set for 2026 is expected to add another 30pc to engine longevity through additional cooling and coating refinements. Rolls-Royce aims to retrofit its entire Trent 1000 fleet within the next two years.

Strategic Investment in Trent Engine Family

Rolls-Royce has pledged £1bn ($1.35bn) to enhance the durability of its Trent family engines, including the 7000, XWB-84, and XWB-97 models. The company expects these investments to extend overall engine durability by 80pc by 2027, reinforcing its competitive position in the widebody aircraft market.

By improving efficiency and reducing maintenance cycles, the upgrades aim to lower lifecycle costs for airlines while ensuring stronger reliability in long-haul operations. This move also comes ahead of rising demand for durable, efficient engines as global air travel continues its recovery.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rolls-Royce’s certification for the Trent 1000 durability upgrade marks a crucial step in restoring airline confidence. By reducing maintenance burdens and extending time on wing, the firm not only strengthens its position against GE but also secures long-term service revenues. This investment underscores the industry’s shift toward performance-driven reliability as a competitive differentiator in aerospace engines.

Zimbabwe to Ban Lithium Concentrate Exports from 2027

Zimbabwe lithium Mining

Government Push for Domestic Processing

Zimbabwe will impose a ban on lithium concentrate exports starting 1 January 2027, according to mines minister Winston Chitando. The policy follows a 2022 ban on raw ore exports and seeks to encourage investment in local processing facilities and battery material plants. Zimbabwe holds Africa’s largest lithium reserves, with Chinese firms already dominating its mining sector.

Two new plants, backed by Sinomine and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, are under construction and expected to begin operations in 2027. These facilities will produce lithium sulphate, a key intermediate that can be refined into battery-grade lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate.

Chinese Investment and Global Market Implications

Chinese companies remain committed to Zimbabwe’s lithium sector despite lithium prices falling nearly 90% since 2022. This long-term strategy reflects Beijing’s broader effort to secure critical minerals for its electric vehicle and energy storage industries. The upcoming export ban will strengthen Zimbabwe’s role in global lithium supply chains by shifting the country toward value-added production.

Zimbabwe’s policy aligns with a growing African trend of restricting raw mineral exports to promote domestic industrialization. For instance, Gabon recently announced a manganese ore export ban from 2029, while Guinea, Mali, Tanzania, and the DRC have implemented similar measures for bauxite, gold, and cobalt.

Strategic Positioning in the Global Battery Market

By enforcing the lithium concentrate export ban, Zimbabwe is positioning itself as a future hub for processed battery materials rather than a raw material supplier. This policy could attract further downstream investment while also reshaping trade flows, especially for EV and renewable energy supply chains. However, success will depend on whether domestic refining capacity can keep pace with rising demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zimbabwe’s lithium export ban signals a decisive shift toward resource nationalism and value-added production. For global supply chains, this move underscores Africa’s emerging role in shaping critical mineral strategies. Investors and downstream users must adapt to a future where raw materials are less available, but refined products become central to supply security.

JLM Secures Rare Earth Magnet Export Permits to US

Jinli Magnet

Chinese Manufacturer Gains Approval Amid Tight Export Controls

Jinli Magnet (JLM), one of China’s major magnet producers, has obtained export permits for magnets containing medium and heavy rare earths to the US. The company applied for permits following Beijing’s April 4 implementation of export controls on certain rare earth products. While volumes were undisclosed, approvals also cover shipments to Europe and Southeast Asia.

JLM, which exports magnetic materials, components, and motor rotors, reported export revenue of 312mn yuan ($43.3mn) in Q1 2025, with the US accounting for 122mn yuan. The firm stated it will continue applying for permits in compliance with Chinese regulations, only proceeding with shipments once approvals are granted.

Impact on US Automakers and Global Supply Chains

Market participants report that US automakers GM, Ford, and Stellantis received permits for permanent magnets containing restricted rare earths, enabling them to advance electric vehicle projects worth billions of dollars. Several Chinese producers also secured permits for European and Vietnamese automotive orders.

Despite the easing, China’s magnet exports to the US will remain limited to essential manufacturing needs to safeguard strategic resources. Some permits are valid for only 3–6 months, suggesting continued supply uncertainty. April’s export controls caused a sharp drop in shipments — only 246t reached the US, the lowest since February 2020 — and tightened global supply, driving spot prices higher outside China.

The Metalnomist Commentary

JLM’s export approval underscores China’s strategic balancing act between resource security and global supply chain stability. While this move offers short-term relief to US and European automakers, the short validity of permits signals ongoing supply risks. The industry should expect continued volatility in rare earth magnet availability and pricing.

CATL and APM Terminals Partner to Accelerate Electrification of Container Terminals

APM Terminals

Strategic Alliance Targets Zero-Emission Port Operations

China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) and Netherlands-based APM Terminals have signed a landmark agreement to drive the electrification of container terminal operations. The partnership aims to accelerate the global shift toward battery-electric container handling equipment through the Zero Emission Port Alliance.

Under the agreement, CATL will supply advanced batteries and integrated energy systems for APM Terminals’ electric fleet, including terminal tractors. This collaboration spans the full battery lifecycle, covering design, deployment, after-sales service, and recycling, ensuring a sustainable and circular approach to energy use in ports.

APM Terminals, an independent division of Danish shipping group AP Moller–Maersk, operates in more than 60 countries and is developing several new facilities. Together with Maersk, the company has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2040, integrating renewable power sources such as solar and wind into port operations.

Driving Efficiency and Sustainability in Global Trade

The electrification initiative also focuses on operational efficiency, with plans to reduce dwell times, optimize energy use, and deploy energy-saving infrastructure. By transitioning to battery-electric handling equipment, APM Terminals can significantly cut its carbon footprint while enhancing operational reliability and lowering long-term energy costs.

As the maritime logistics industry faces increasing regulatory and environmental pressures, this partnership positions both companies at the forefront of port decarbonization. The integration of CATL’s battery technology with APM Terminals’ global operations could serve as a scalable model for ports worldwide seeking to achieve zero-emission targets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The CATL–APM Terminals partnership signals a pivotal shift toward zero-emission port infrastructure. By combining battery innovation with operational expertise, the initiative could redefine industry standards for sustainable maritime logistics. The success of this collaboration may influence other port operators to accelerate similar decarbonization strategies.

China Tungsten Exports Resume in Europe with Limited Volumes

China Tungsten

China tungsten exports restarted in European markets for the first time since February stoppages, though shipment volumes remain constrained at maximum 1 tonne per delivery. The resumption of China tungsten exports follows months of supply disruption caused by Chinese export controls announced February 4th, creating acute shortages for US and European buyers dependent on tungsten ingots for defense and industrial applications.

Small-Scale Shipments Signal Cautious Market Re-entry

China tungsten exports currently originate primarily from smaller state-owned manufacturers rather than major producers. Market sources report receiving new shipments in Rotterdam while additional material remains in transit to European destinations. However, volumes stay extremely limited compared to pre-control periods, reflecting continued regulatory uncertainty and cautious export policies from Chinese suppliers.

Meanwhile, delivery timelines extend significantly with current orders potentially shipping in July for immediate purchases. Traders quote current prices at $56 per kilogram on a cost-insurance-freight basis, representing substantial increases from historical levels. The extended lead times demonstrate supply chain disruptions that persist despite the resumption of limited export activities.

Export Controls Create Ongoing Market Uncertainty

However, tungsten metal products face complex regulatory environments despite not appearing on initial dual-use licensing lists. While other tungsten products required explicit export licenses from February 4th, tungsten ingots experienced de facto export halts through administrative restrictions. This regulatory ambiguity creates persistent uncertainty for international buyers seeking reliable supply sources.

Therefore, US and European buyers continue struggling to secure sufficient alternative tungsten sources outside Chinese production. The global tungsten market's dependence on Chinese suppliers becomes evident through months of supply shortages following export control implementation. Alternative sourcing efforts prove inadequate for meeting industrial demand requirements across defense and manufacturing sectors.

Tight European Market Maintains Price Pressure

Furthermore, European tungsten markets remain extremely tight with minimal warehouse inventory available for immediate delivery. Limited stock levels mean small resumptions in Chinese exports cannot immediately relieve price pressures or supply constraints. Market participants describe conditions as "total lottery" scenarios where securing tungsten ingots depends largely on timing and supplier relationships.

As a result, prompt tungsten prices maintain elevated levels despite the resumption of small-scale Chinese shipments. The constrained supply environment supports premium pricing while buyers compete for limited available material. Industrial consumers face continued procurement challenges that affect production planning and cost structures across tungsten-dependent manufacturing sectors.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China's limited tungsten export resumption highlights the persistent vulnerability of global supply chains dependent on single-source suppliers for critical materials, particularly when geopolitical tensions influence trade policies. The constrained volumes and regulatory uncertainty demonstrate how export controls can fundamentally reshape commodity markets, forcing Western buyers to reassess supply security strategies for defense-critical materials like tungsten.

Glencore Trade Flow Disruption Expected Amid Global Tariff Tensions

Glencore

Commodity Supply Chains Face Potential Reorientation in Coming Months

Glencore warns of trade flow disruption due to rising global tariffs, though no major impacts have materialized yet. The trading giant highlighted ongoing risks in supply chains spanning the U.S., China, Canada, and Europe—all of which have implemented or announced new tariffs this month. Despite current stability, Glencore anticipates physical trade flow dislocations will likely emerge in the near term.

Risk Management Becomes Central in Volatile Market Conditions

Glencore emphasized its priority on risk management given its exposure to complex commodity supply chains. The company acknowledged that while primary trade routes remain intact, evolving tariff structures may force reorientation in commodity logistics. The firm is prepared to adapt, noting that similar dislocations during the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine conflict led to record earnings for its marketing division.

Market Volatility Could Create Strategic Trading Opportunities

Glencore believes upcoming disruptions may present trading opportunities across commodity sectors. Historically, the company capitalized on elevated price volatility in 2020 and 2022–23, especially in the oil markets. While Glencore did not disclose its Q1 results, it expects its 2025 marketing earnings to fall within the $2.2bn–$3.2bn guidance range, reinforcing confidence in its ability to navigate uncertainty.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Glencore trade flow disruption alert reflects a broader industry shift toward agile supply chain strategies. As geopolitical instability grows, the ability to profit from volatility may define competitive edge in the trading sector.

Ecuador Aims to Boost Copper Exports by 10–14% in 2025

Ecuador Copper Mining

Power Stability Set to Restore Ecuador's Copper Output

Ecuador plans to increase copper exports by 10–14% in 2025, targeting a return to 2023 shipment levels. Vice Minister of Mining Rebeca Illescas confirmed the outlook, following a 14% export decline in 2024 due to power outages.

The Mirador mine, operated by Chinese-owned Ecsa-Ecuacorriente, contributes over 90% of Ecuador's copper concentrate output. Severe drought in late 2024 slashed hydropower supply and triggered 88 days of scheduled electricity cuts, impacting mining productivity. Now, the mine has restored full power and is importing thermoelectric systems to ensure stability by May.

Infrastructure and Weather Challenges Still Linger

Ecuador rented 1GW of thermoelectric capacity to prevent further blackouts, said Vice Minister of Electricity Fabian Calero. This improved stability has already helped copper exports rebound in early 2025, with January shipments up 38% from December.

However, copper export volumes in January were still 37% lower than the same month in 2024. Heavy rains in early 2025 damaged transportation infrastructure, further limiting copper movement to export terminals. Despite lower volumes, improved pricing led to a 40% month-on-month increase in export value, reaching $110 million in January.

Ecsa contributed $53 million in royalties for 2023–2024 copper exports, marking a 29% increase over the prior period.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ecuador's strategy to stabilize copper exports underscores the growing linkage between energy resilience and mineral trade flows. With Chinese investment entrenched in Ecuador's copper mining and export network, the success of thermoelectric backup systems will shape the country's ability to compete as a regional copper supplier—especially as Peru and Chile face their own bottlenecks. Prices remain strong, but risks from climate and logistics persist.

Trump Accuses China of Violating Preliminary Trade Deal

U.S, China

Trump Accuses China of Violating Preliminary Trade Deal

US President Donald Trump has accused China of breaching a preliminary trade agreement reached in Geneva earlier this month. During a White House press briefing, Trump claimed that Beijing "violated a big part of the agreement," though he provided no specifics. US trade officials and aides also offered no documentation or clarification, raising uncertainty over the deal’s durability.

The Geneva pact aimed to temporarily pause 125–145% tariffs, allowing limited breathing room for both sides until 10 August. However, exemptions remain narrow. For instance, China’s tariffs on US crude oil and LNG are still too high to restore meaningful trade flows. On the other hand, US propane exports could rebound due to lower effective tariffs and exemptions for key petrochemical feedstocks.

New Tariff Measures and Export Restrictions Stir Controversy

The trade dispute has evolved beyond traditional tariffs. The US Department of Commerce recently required NGL exporters to apply for export licenses for ethane and butane bound for China. The department cited concerns over dual-use military applications. Meanwhile, the Trump administration announced new fees of $50/net ton on Chinese ship operators and $18/net ton on Chinese-built ships, effective this fall.

Adding further strain, China lifted some tech export restrictions, particularly for cloud services, while maintaining limits on rare earth exports to the US. These minerals are crucial for defense and electronics, making the move highly strategic.

Legal Challenges Undermine Tariff Legitimacy

A major legal complication emerged when the US Court of International Trade ruled that Trump’s tariffs under the 1978 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful. The court concluded the law does not grant unlimited presidential authority over tariffs. Although a federal appeals court has stayed the ruling, the incident casts doubt on Trump’s long-term tariff strategy.

Trump criticized the idea of seeking Congressional approval for tariffs, stating it would involve "hundreds of people" and months of delay. Despite legal headwinds, Trump continues to favor unilateral action and hinted at resolving disputes directly with President Xi Jinping in the near future.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Trump’s renewed hardline stance on China—just weeks after a ceasefire—highlights the fragile nature of trade diplomacy. While tariffs offer political leverage, legal and structural challenges are mounting. Industrial stakeholders must prepare for an environment where regulatory unpredictability, rather than open markets, defines global trade norms.

EU’s Copper Imports Increase in 2024 Despite Weak Demand in Germany

EU’s Copper Imports

Refined copper imports to the EU rose by 3.2% in 2024, led by Italy and Spain, despite falling demand in Germany.

Imports Rise, But Key Markets Show Strain

EU countries imported 1.71 million tonnes of refined copper in 2024, a 3.2% increase year on year, according to customs data. Italy remained the bloc’s top importer with 543,363 tonnes, representing 32% of total EU imports.

Germany, however, experienced a 13% drop in copper imports, falling to 413,245 tonnes. This reflects persistent challenges in Germany's industrial sectors due to rising energy prices and sluggish demand. The effects of the Covid-19 aftermath and Ukraine-related energy shocks have slowed recovery across EU economies.

Spain, Sweden, and the DRC See Significant Gains

Meanwhile, Spain increased its refined copper imports by 28%, reaching 142,231 tonnes, showing resilience in its industrial sectors. Sweden saw the largest year-on-year growth, with 119% more imports, totaling 107,794 tonnes.

On the supply side, Chile remained the largest exporter, delivering 307,885 tonnes to the EU — a 21% increase from 2023. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) overtook Poland as the second-largest supplier, with 200,992 tonnes, up 11%. Together, Chile, DRC, and Poland made up 40% of the EU’s total refined copper supply in 2024.

Despite an overall 2.9% rise in global copper consumption, the EU market remains fragile. According to the International Copper Study Group, weak demand from automotive and construction sectors continues to weigh on European copper use.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU’s rising copper imports contrast sharply with the weakening of its core manufacturing sectors. Germany’s downturn reflects broader industrial deceleration, while southern and northern Europe appear more resilient. As the energy transition accelerates, copper sourcing will remain a geopolitical and industrial priority — and import trends are the first signal to watch.

Kaiser Aluminum Faces 2024 Shipment Declines Amid Sector Disruptions

Kaiser Aluminum

Labor strikes and sector-specific demand shifts disrupt Kaiser Aluminum’s packaging, aerospace, and automotive shipments.

Kaiser Aluminum experienced a decline in total aluminum product shipments in 2024 due to major supply chain disruptions and shifting sector demand. The company’s full-year shipment volume fell to 1.17 billion lbs, down from 1.2 billion lbs in 2023. This decrease was largely attributed to a slump in the packaging sector, which holds the largest volume share in Kaiser’s product mix.

Packaging demand weakened significantly in the first half of the year. This reflected a correction from previous pandemic-related stockpiling. However, in a positive development, fourth-quarter shipments rose 9% year-on-year to 153 million lbs, hinting at potential recovery in 2025.

Sector-Specific Disruptions Drove Declines

Kaiser’s aerospace shipments fell by 9 million lbs to 245 million lbs in 2024. Notably, Q4 deliveries dropped to 60 million lbs, from 68 million lbs in the same period of 2023. The decline coincided with a labor strike by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, which disrupted production from mid-September to early November.

In the automotive segment, a United Auto Workers strike that began on September 15 reduced extrusion demand. Full-year automotive shipments fell 3% to 101 million lbs, with Q4 volumes declining 8% to 22 million lbs. This marked another significant impact on overall performance.

General Engineering Remains a Bright Spot

Despite downturns in other areas, general engineering shipments increased 6% to 289 million lbs in 2024. Growth was recorded across all quarters, supported by strong demand for plate, sheet, bar, and tube products. This sector became a rare source of resilience in Kaiser’s portfolio.

The company expects further growth in 2025, citing upcoming shipments from its new roll line at the Warrick, Indiana plant, set to start in Q2 and reach full capacity by H2 2025.

Revenue and Profit Trends Reflect Operational Challenges

Despite shipment pressures, Kaiser posted quarterly revenue growth of 6% to $765 million. However, quarterly profit declined by over 12% to $7 million. Full-year revenue was $3.02 billion, down 2%, and net profit dropped 7% to $41 million.

While general engineering offers a path forward, Kaiser’s reliance on cyclical sectors and vulnerability to labor disputes highlight ongoing risks. The company’s 2025 performance will largely depend on demand stabilization and the success of its Indiana expansion.

U.S. Targets Chinese Maritime Dominance With Proposed Tariffs on Cranes and Containers

USTR (The U.S. Trade Representative)

100% Tariff on Chinese STS Cranes Signals Strategic Pivot in Port Infrastructure Security

Washington Aims to Curb China’s Grip on Maritime Supply Chains

The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has announced plans to impose steep tariffs on Chinese-made port equipment to counter China's overwhelming control of the global maritime infrastructure. This marks a significant escalation in trade policy, targeting ship-to-shore (STS) cranes and shipping containers that are critical to port operations.

As proposed, a 100% tariff would apply to STS cranes, while other cargo-handling equipment—including shipping containers—could face duties ranging from 20% to 100%. These measures are slated for implementation within 6 to 24 months from April 17, 2025.

Security Risks Drive Trade Shift Amid Lack of U.S. Alternatives

China currently produces 95% of the world's shipping containers and supplies 80% of the U.S. market with STS cranes. These figures, cited in the USTR’s Section 301 Investigation Report, highlight the strategic vulnerabilities in America’s maritime logistics network. U.S. lawmakers argue that China’s technological dominance poses a national security risk, especially in periods of geopolitical tension.

A 2024 report from the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party warned that China’s control over such critical equipment could be exploited to "exert pressure on the U.S.," raising alarms over the potential for surveillance or sabotage at American ports.

Despite this, the U.S. currently lacks viable domestic manufacturing capacity for most of this equipment. Only two major foreign players—Konecranes (Finland) and Liebherr (Germany)—are considered viable alternatives, although their products are significantly more expensive than Chinese models.

Next Steps: Public Hearings and Industry Feedback

The USTR will hold a public hearing on May 19 to gather input on the economic and operational impact of the proposed tariffs. Industry stakeholders, logistics companies, and security analysts are expected to weigh in on the feasibility and timeline of the measures.

In the short term, port operators may continue relying on Chinese equipment. However, the proposed tariffs signal a strategic push to re-shore or diversify the U.S. supply chain away from China—particularly in areas deemed vital to national infrastructure.

Trump Signs Executive Order to Accelerate Deep Sea Mining for Critical Minerals

Trump, Critical Minerals

New Policy Aims to Boost U.S. Access to Nickel, Cobalt, and Manganese

U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to fast-track seabed exploration and mining for critical minerals. The order challenges the authority of the United Nations' International Seabed Authority (ISA) over international waters.

The directive instructs the Secretary of Commerce to speed up exploration and commercial recovery permits under the Deep Seabed Hard Minerals Resources Act (DSHMR). Currently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued four exploration licenses but no commercial permits.

The executive order also mandates mapping potential mineral reserves along the seabed.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) highlighted areas rich in nickel, cobalt, and manganese in a recent report.

Industry Response and International Tensions Grow

Canada-based The Metals Company confirmed plans to apply for a commercial deep-sea mining license in the Pacific in 2025. However, tensions are rising as China's Foreign Ministry condemned the U.S. move, defending the ISA's jurisdiction.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), signed in 1994, governs deep sea mining regulations. Yet, commercial regulations remain pending, leaving U.S.-issued permits potentially unrecognized by UNCLOS member states.

Environmental concerns persist.

Fauna and Flora, an environmental non-profit, warned that deep-sea mining could release stored marine carbon, offsetting climate gains.

As the demand for battery minerals intensifies, deep-sea mining's legal and environmental battles are expected to escalate.

Panama Rejects Trump’s Demand for Free US Canal Access

Panama president, Jose Raul Mulino

Tensions Rise Over Control of Strategic Trade Routes

Panama's president, Jose Raul Mulino, firmly rejected US president Donald Trump's demand for free US military and commercial access through the Panama Canal. Trump, during an address on 26 April, asserted that the US deserves free passage, citing America's historic support in the canal’s construction.

However, Mulino clarified that the Panama Canal Authority (ACP), an autonomous entity, solely governs transit operations and fees. “The neutrality treaty and the organic law of the Panama Canal regulate all ship transits,” he stated. Mulino emphasized that no alternative agreement exists that would permit such free access.

The US and Panama jointly managed the canal until it was officially handed over to Panama in 1999. Since then, Panama has independently operated the canal under international law.

Trump's Renewed Focus on Canal Control

Trump’s recent remarks align with his broader agenda of challenging Panama's ownership of the strategic waterway. He reiterated claims that China holds undue influence over the canal's operations, an accusation he made both before and after assuming office in January.

Earlier this month, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced Washington’s pursuit of an agreement for increased warship access through the canal. Currently, US shipping lines account for 74% of the cargo volume passing through the canal, followed by Chinese lines at 21%, according to the ACP.

Moreover, Trump declared that the US is “reclaiming” the canal following BlackRock's announcement of plans to purchase two ports flanking the canal from Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison. Yet, Mulino denounced Trump’s claim as entirely false, defending Panama’s sovereignty and national dignity.

Rising Geopolitical Tensions

Meanwhile, Beijing expressed discontent over CK Hutchison’s intended sale, criticizing the move as a "betrayal of Chinese interests." China’s government has confirmed it is closely monitoring the situation, signaling potential diplomatic friction.

The battle over the Panama Canal symbolizes broader tensions in global trade, sovereignty, and geopolitical influence, with the US, Panama, and China all holding strong, conflicting interests.

Santos Brasil Sees Strong Growth in 4Q Container Handling Driven by Long-Haul Trade

Santos Brasil

Record Volumes and Revenue Growth Mark Robust Fourth Quarter

Santos Brasil, a leading Brazilian logistics company, reported a 17% rise in fourth quarter container handling compared to the previous year. The company moved 391,190 containers in Q4, up from 335,130 in the same period of 2023. Long-haul shipping volumes soared, with exports increasing by 35% and imports by 17%.

Terminal Performance Highlights Significant Expansion

The Tecon Santos terminal in southeast Brazil led the gains, handling 343,515 containers, a 19% increase year-on-year. The surge was fueled by strong exports of cotton, sugar, coffee, and cellulose. Imports of vehicle parts and chemicals also contributed to higher long-haul operations. Cabotage at Tecon Santos grew by 12.5%, supported by a new service that boosted cargo volumes.

The Tecon Imbituba terminal in the south handled nearly 22,370 containers in Q4, up 40% from last year. A new long-haul service, launched after Santos Brasil sold 47.55% of its shares to CMA CGM, drove long-haul volumes up 60%. Cabotage at this terminal rose by 27% thanks to new operational routes. In contrast, the northern Tecon Vila do Conde saw volumes fall by 19% due to severe drought, which led to shipping delays and longer port queues, despite a 1.9% increase in cabotage.

Annual Results Reflect Sustained Momentum

For the full year 2024, Santos Brasil handled almost 1.5 million containers, a 23% increase over 2023. Tecon Santos processed 1.3 million containers, up 24% year-on-year. Tecon Imbituba grew by 53% to 80,835 containers, while Tecon Vila do Conde dropped 4.8% to 94,970. Annual profit climbed to R742 million, up 47%, and revenue jumped by 36% to R2.9 billion. Despite an 8.3% year-on-year dip in Q4 profit, the company's revenue rose 18.5% to R790.7 million.

Panama Approves Third Canal Lake Project to Tackle Droughts and Secure Waterway Future

Panama Canal Authority

$2 Billion Indio River Lake to Boost Resilience Against Climate Shocks

The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has approved a $2 billion project to construct a third lake, aiming to strengthen the canal’s resilience against severe droughts. This new dammed lake, spanning 500 km² on the Indio River, will support the existing Gatun and Alajuela lakes. Recent droughts, intensified by the El Nino weather pattern, forced Panama to drastically cut canal transits in 2023 and 2024.

Project Details, Timeline, and Ongoing Challenges

Building the Indio River lake will take five years, offering water security for at least the next 50 years, according to the ACP. However, the canal may still face at least one more period of transit restrictions due to drought before the improvements are fully realized. The canal usually sees 36 transits per day, but this fell to 22 during last year’s crisis. A rebound in rainfall since July has allowed the ACP to restore transit levels, though the long-term threat from climate volatility remains.

Legal and Social Hurdles Complicate Expansion

Previously, legal restrictions blocked new reservoirs until Panama’s supreme court expanded the canal authority’s jurisdiction to include the Indio River basin. The project now faces resistance from about 2,500 local residents, mainly farmers, who oppose forced relocation and demand fair compensation. Intense negotiations continue, with rights organizations backing the residents’ cause. Meanwhile, geopolitical tension has emerged after former US president Donald Trump claimed the canal is controlled by China. Panama’s president, Jose Raul Mulino, has reaffirmed that the Canal Authority—an autonomous government agency—manages the waterway, not any foreign entity.

Dry Bulk Growth to Stall in 2025 Amid Chinese Supply Glut, Star Bulk Warns

Star Bulk

Dry bulk shipowner Star Bulk projects that global dry bulk tonne-mile demand will grow by only 0.9% in 2025, a significant deceleration from previous years. This slowdown reflects weakening demand for coal and iron ore shipping—two pillars of the sector.

Chinese Supply Surplus Signals Lower Import Volumes

Throughout 2024, China ramped up domestic production of coal, iron ore, and grains. As a result, import demand is expected to drop in 2025. Despite Beijing's stimulus efforts in late 2024, Star Bulk believes they are insufficient to shift dry bulk trade flows meaningfully in the short term. High stockpiles and oversupply remain the key headwinds.

Additionally, Chinese dry bulk exports have surged by 19.5% over the past two years, but this increase doesn't fully offset the slowdown in inbound volumes, particularly for raw materials.

Coal Tonne-Miles Set to Contract After Record Growth

In 2024, global tonne-mile demand for coal grew by 6.5%, spurred by increased thermal electricity generation and strategic stockpiling in China. However, Star Bulk expects a 2.7% contraction in 2025, as domestic coal production outpaces consumption in recent quarters.

This shift will likely depress seaborne coal trade, especially to Asia, further impacting the Capesize and Panamax segments.

Iron Ore Imports Face Growth Ceiling Amid Inventory Buildup

Likewise, iron ore tonne-mile demand, which grew 5.3% in 2024, is projected to rise only 1% in 2025. Chinese iron ore stockpiles and domestic production have both increased significantly, curbing demand for imports.

However, Star Bulk anticipates some relief by late 2025 as new high-grade Atlantic mines begin production. These sources could eventually replace low-quality Chinese supply, thereby enhancing tonne-mile figures in the long run.

Despite the softer macro outlook, Star Bulk's financial performance remains strong. The company reported a Q4 2024 net profit of $42.4 million, compared to $39.7 million in Q4 2023. Its diverse fleet of 151 bulk carriers—including Newcastlemaxes, Capesizes, Kamsarmaxes, and Ultramaxes—positions the firm to respond dynamically to evolving global trade flows.

EIA Cuts WTI Forecast by $7 on Trade War Fears

Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Energy agency slashes oil demand and production outlook through 2026 amid economic uncertainty

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has sharply reduced its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil forecast due to escalating trade tensions. The benchmark U.S. crude is now expected to average $63.88 per barrel in 2025—down by $6.80 from last month’s estimate—and further decline to $57.48 in 2026, $7.49 below the previous projection.

Trade War Impacts Global Oil Demand

Ongoing trade disputes, especially between the U.S. and China, are significantly curbing global oil consumption. The EIA now expects worldwide demand to be nearly 500,000 barrels per day (b/d) lower in 2025 than forecasted just a month ago. For 2026, the reduction climbs to 620,000 b/d. These cuts reflect growing concerns over economic stagnation tied to U.S. tariffs and China’s retaliatory actions.

The delayed release of the April Short-Term Energy Outlook allowed the EIA to re-run models incorporating President Trump’s latest trade decisions. However, the forecast does not include updates from April 9, when Trump paused the harshest tariffs. Meanwhile, China has imposed new tariffs on U.S. goods, amplifying trade tensions.

Oil Price Forecasts Reflect Broader Weakness

Brent crude also saw significant downward revisions. The international benchmark is now forecast to average $67.68/bl in 2025 and $61.48/bl in 2026. These cuts align with a weakening demand outlook and lower expected production.

The EIA emphasized that its outlook remains “subject to significant uncertainty,” particularly as geopolitical and economic developments evolve rapidly. Banks and market analysts are also trimming their oil price forecasts, indicating broader skepticism in the market.

Lower Supply and Demand Across the Board

The EIA also cut its estimates for both global and U.S. oil production. Global output is expected to reach 104.1mn b/d in 2025 and 105.35mn b/d in 2026, down by 70,000 and 43,000 b/d respectively. In the U.S., domestic production is projected at 13.51mn b/d in 2025 and 13.56mn b/d in 2026—each figure 100,000 to 200,000 b/d lower than prior estimates.

U.S. consumption has been reduced to 20.38mn b/d for 2025 and 20.49mn b/d for 2026, down by 70,000 and 110,000 b/d respectively. These revisions underline the broad impact of trade policies and economic uncertainty on the energy sector.

As oil markets remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic shifts, all eyes are on future U.S.-China negotiations and their influence on crude pricing.

Trump's Executive Order Seeks to Revive U.S. Shipbuilding and Combat China's Maritime Dominance

U.S. Shipbuilding

New Maritime Action Plan to Prioritize Shipbuilding, Workforce Development, and Infrastructure Overhaul

President Donald Trump has signed a sweeping executive order aimed at reviving the U.S. maritime industry and shipbuilding sector. The order focuses on public-private investments, long-term funding, and strategic policy reforms to reduce reliance on foreign-built vessels—particularly those from China.

The executive order mandates key federal agencies—including the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, and the U.S. Trade Representative—to submit a comprehensive Maritime Action Plan (MAP) within seven months. This MAP will outline actionable steps to strengthen domestic shipbuilding, ship repair, port infrastructure, and the maritime workforce.

A centerpiece of the plan is the creation of a maritime security trust fund. This fund will ensure stable financing for infrastructure modernization and shipyard upgrades. Moreover, it will support workforce training programs and offer financial incentives to boost domestic shipbuilding capacity.

Additionally, the Department of Homeland Security must propose new legislation to counter regulatory circumvention. Companies routing cargo through Canadian or Mexican ports to avoid U.S. laws may face added Customs and Border Protection (CBP) fees.

Another innovative policy under the order is the establishment of Maritime Prosperity Zones. These zones, including one proposed in the Great Lakes region, will serve as hubs for maritime economic growth and innovation.

In a further effort to challenge China’s dominance in global shipping, the executive order supports proposals by the USTR to impose docking fees on Chinese-built vessels or their owners. While intended to level the playing field, these measures raise concerns among U.S. industries about increased costs and the practical hurdles of rebuilding a competitive domestic shipbuilding base.

The executive order represents one of the most aggressive policy pushes in decades to reassert U.S. leadership in maritime manufacturing and logistics. Yet, its success will depend heavily on how effectively agencies implement the MAP and secure bipartisan support for legislative changes.

Severe Weather Disrupts Australian Copper and Fertilizer Logistics

Queensland Rail (QR)

Torrential rains have forced the closure of Australia's Mount Isa rail line, disrupting the transport of critical commodities like copper and phosphate. This rail line, which connects key mining sites to the Port of Townsville in Queensland, is essential for the export of goods, and the lack of a clear timeline for its reopening is creating significant logistical challenges.

Mount Isa Rail Line Severely Damaged by Torrential Rain

Queensland Rail (QR) reported on February 10 that the North Coast and Mount Isa rail lines had sustained significant damage, with 177 defects identified. The rail line is a crucial route for transporting products from mining operations, including Glencore's Mount Isa copper mine and Incitec Pivot's Phosphate Hill fertilizer plant. Without it, these mining companies face major delays in moving their products from production sites to the Port of Townsville for export and distribution across Australia.

Challenges for Incitec Pivot and Other Mining Companies

In addition to weather-related challenges, Incitec Pivot is facing other operational issues. The company recently lowered its production forecast for Phosphate Hill by 7%, expecting to produce between 740,000 and 800,000 tons for the 2025 financial year due to ongoing gas supply problems. This is further complicated by the logistical difficulties caused by the Mount Isa rail line closure. Other companies, including Centrex, also rely on the line to ship phosphate rock, amplifying the broader impact on Australia's mining sector.

Port of Townsville and Abbot Point Impacted by Weather

The Port of Abbot Point, located south of Townsville, also experienced disruptions due to wet weather, closing from January 31 to February 5. Despite large parts of Townsville being flooded, the Port of Townsville remained operational, which helped mitigate some logistical challenges during this period. However, the combined effects of rail and port disruptions continue to strain the local economy and hinder mining and fertilizer exports.

Outlook for Australia’s Mining Industry Amid Infrastructure Setbacks

As the Mount Isa rail line remains closed indefinitely, Australian mining companies, particularly in copper and fertilizer sectors, are facing continued uncertainty. With production forecasts adjusted and logistical bottlenecks in place, it is unclear when normal operations will resume, further impacting Australia's export capacity.

Blanket US Aluminium Tariffs to Have Limited Impact on European Trade Flows

US Aluminium

Trump's 25% Tariff on All Aluminium Imports Will Affect US Consumers, Not European Markets

US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a blanket 25% tariff on all aluminium imports is expected to have minimal impact on European trade flows. This contrasts with earlier plans to impose tariffs specifically on imports from Canada and Mexico. According to market participants, the new approach is unlikely to disrupt European markets as much as the previous strategy might have.

Impact of Blanket Tariffs on Aluminium Trade

Trump’s new tariffs, which will apply to all aluminium imports, are set to be announced soon. This blanket tariff on steel and aluminium is expected to affect all exporting countries without distinguishing between suppliers. Canada, the UAE, and Argentina were the leading exporters of unwrought aluminium to the US last year, but the tariffs will now apply to everyone, making it difficult for countries like Canada to redirect excess supplies to Europe as initially anticipated.

Under the previous plan, markets predicted a shift in trade flows, with more Canadian aluminium potentially moving to Europe. This was expected to reduce European premiums due to an increase in supply, as demand in Europe remained weak. However, under the new tariff strategy, this shift is likely to be less pronounced. The global competitiveness of Canadian aluminium is diminished when tariffs apply universally, making aluminium from other regions, such as the Middle East and South America, less attractive in the US market.

Consequences for US Consumers and Domestic Production

The main consequence of these blanket tariffs will be higher costs for US consumers. While the tariffs could potentially drive up domestic production, increasing capacity will take years. In the meantime, US buyers will face higher prices for aluminium imports, particularly from Canada, as shipping times from these suppliers are shorter than those from more distant countries.

Market analysts believe that, despite the tariffs, US consumers will continue to import from Canada because of these logistical advantages. The blanket tariff strategy is unlikely to redirect a significant volume of Canadian aluminium to Europe, meaning the overall impact on European aluminium flows will be minimal.

Conclusion: A Shift in Costs, Not Trade Flows

In conclusion, Trump’s blanket tariffs on aluminium imports are expected to result in higher costs for US consumers but will have limited consequences for European trade flows. The market will likely experience some adjustments, but European aluminium premiums are not expected to drop significantly as a result of these changes.