Airbus Support to Spirit AeroSystems Deepens as Boeing Deal Nears

Spirit AeroSystems

Why this funding matters for Airbus programs

Airbus support to Spirit AeroSystems expanded with a new $94mn package. The funding lifts total Airbus support to $152mn, plus $200mn in zero-interest credit. Airbus aims to stabilize output across key programs before the Spirit transaction closes. The closing is expected in the third quarter, subject to final approvals.

Airbus will confine the cash to specified contracts. These include the A350 wing, A350 fuselage, and A321neo XLR inboard flap. They also include A220 mid-fuselage, A220 pylon, and A220 wing packages. Any assets purchased with this aid will transfer to Airbus at closing.

How the Boeing–Spirit reshuffle changes the supply chain

Boeing is reacquiring Spirit to shore up its supply chain and finances. The merger carves out Airbus work packages for direct Airbus oversight. Airbus support to Spirit AeroSystems therefore serves dual goals. It sustains near-term deliveries and smooths post-closing integration.

Spirit confirmed Airbus will also take Belfast mid-fuselage production. Shorts Brothers, the Belfast operator, posted a $504mn loss in 2024. Inflation and skilled-labor constraints hurt performance across that site. After the carve-outs, Shorts will still supply Bombardier and Rolls-Royce.

The latest $94mn follows two $29mn tranches issued in 2024. Airbus support to Spirit AeroSystems remains targeted and ring-fenced. The structure de-risks A350 and A220 aerostructures ahead of integration. It also supports A321neo XLR ramp plans amid engine and parts strains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Airbus is buying stability while buying scope. The ring-fenced liquidity and future asset transfer reduce execution risk where it matters most: wings, fuselages, and pylons. As Boeing folds Spirit back in, this parallel carve-out should tighten European supply lines and compress quality variance.

Enduring Reliance Amid Sanctions: Europe’s Russian Titanium Dilemma

VSMPO Titanium

Introduction: A Supply Chain Unbroken in Wartime

Despite sweeping economic sanctions imposed by the West following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, one supply chain has proved remarkably resilient: Russian titanium sponge. Europe’s quandary over this advanced material—indispensable to aerospace, defense, and medical-device manufacturing—has only deepened.

Russia’s Command of Titanium

Russia ranks among the world’s largest titanium producers. VSMPO-AVISMA, the country’s flagship producer, accounts for 90% of Russia’s titanium output and exports to some 50 countries. The company is estimated to control up to 30% of the global titanium market and nearly half of aerospace-grade supply.

Russia’s dominance rests on abundant raw-material reserves and comparatively low energy costs. Because titanium smelting is energy-intensive, commercial viability depends on cheap power and gas—conditions Russia has historically met.

Airbus A380

Trade that Continues Despite Sanctions

On 7 March 2022, Boeing announced it would halt purchases of Russian titanium used in aircraft manufacturing. Rolls-Royce and Boeing subsequently suspended procurement from VSMPO-AVISMA indefinitely.

Europe, however, charted a different course. Airbus urged the European Union to keep Russian titanium outside future sanctions packages. As Airbus chief executive Guillaume Faury argued, titanium represents a small share of Russia’s total exports, so sanctions would inflict little pain on Moscow while dealing a heavy blow to Europe’s aerospace industry.

Today, Airbus still sources roughly half of its titanium from VSMPO-AVISMA. Boeing, by contrast, once relied on Russia for about one-third of its titanium but has since stopped buying Russian material.

The Limits—and Exceptions—of EU Sanctions

Notably, while the EU has restricted imports of Russian steel and coal, titanium has not been sanctioned. The metal remains a strategic material used in fuselages, turbine blades, satellites, and other critical systems.

Dependence on Russian metals endures in other segments as well. From March to June 2022, combined EU-US imports of Russian aluminum and nickel rose to $1.98 billion—more than 70% above the prior-year period.

Washington and Brussels have generally refrained from designating industrial metals as sanction targets. Europe continues to import large volumes of Russian natural gas, and Russia supplies about 40% of global palladium—vital for semiconductors—implicating everything from automobiles to smartphones.

CBAM

CBAM: A New Variable

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), introduced in October 2023, adds another layer of complexity. CBAM initially covers cement, electricity, fertilizers, iron and steel, aluminum, hydrogen, and certain downstream products in steel and aluminum. After a transition phase through 2025, full implementation begins in 2026, imposing carbon costs on imports equivalent to those borne by EU producers.

While fertilizers, cement, hydrogen, and non-exported electricity may see limited near-term impact, aluminum stands out as a key target sector. Most exports to the EU beyond steel and aluminum are not yet covered, though the European Commission has signaled possible expansion to high-leakage categories such as organic chemicals and plastics.

Russia is structurally disadvantaged under CBAM. Steel production in Russia, Ukraine, and Türkiye tends to be more carbon-intensive, implying higher embedded-carbon costs at the border.

Ambiguities in Sanctions and Industry’s Dilemma

The United States placed VSMPO-AVISMA on its “military end-user” list, restricting access to advanced technologies, but stopped short of a direct ban on titanium sales—an acknowledgment of global industry’s reliance on the material.

Indeed, during the early stages of the war, VSMPO-AVISMA avoided sweeping US and European sanctions. Although Washington temporarily listed the company in December 2020, the measure was later rescinded.

Recent moves, however, suggest a tightening environment. In April 2024, a joint US-UK action prompted the CME and LME to prohibit trade in newly produced Russian aluminum, copper, and nickel dated after 13 April—an effort widely read as constraining Russia’s influence in metals markets.

Ukraine Titanium Mine

Ukraine: A Viable Alternative?

Against this backdrop, Ukraine has emerged as a potential alternative. Until 2020, the country supplied 90% of Russia’s ilmenite—the feedstock for titanium sponge. With that supply chain severed by war, Ukrainian resources could help challenge Russia’s dominance.

US companies have begun talks with Kyiv on a joint venture anchored by the Zaporizhzhia Titanium-Magnesium Plant (ZTMP). Such partnerships could forge a new titanium hub in Eastern Europe, strengthening Ukraine’s economic footing for decades.

The risks are significant. Ongoing conflict and occupation threaten both Donbas deposits and the ZTMP facilities, which remain exposed to shelling and sabotage.

Aviation’s Growth—and Its Dilemma

The aerospace-titanium market was valued at roughly $100 million in 2022 and is projected to grow at a CAGR exceeding 5% from 2023 to 2032—reflecting the rebound in air travel and a pipeline of commercial aircraft programs.

Despite supply-chain turbulence from war, energy constraints, and labor shortages, passenger traffic continues to recover, lifting titanium demand. In October 2022, Airbus announced plans to deliver more than one aircraft per week to India, persisting with expansion despite engine-supply challenges and domestic carrier capacity constraints—developments that further complicate titanium sourcing.

The Reality of Diversification

Boeing reportedly began diversifying away from Russian titanium after the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Airbus, by contrast, remains heavily reliant on Russian supply.

Globally, China produced around 100,000 t of titanium in 2013—twice the combined output of Russia and Japan at the time—making it the world’s largest producer. Japan ranked third, with Osaka Titanium Technologies standing as the world’s second-largest producer of titanium sponge.

The Metalnomist Commentary: An Unfinished Dilemma

Europe’s struggle over Russian titanium sponge epitomizes the knotty realities of modern supply chains. Between economic sanctions and security imperatives, between industrial competitiveness and moral principle, Europe has yet to find a definitive answer.

With CBAM’s full force arriving in 2026, higher carbon-cost pass-throughs on Russian metals seem likely, intensifying pressure to rewire supply. Yet, as Airbus’s position illustrates, displacing Russian titanium in the short term remains daunting.

The gap between industrial necessity and political sanction endures—witness VSMPO-AVISMA’s August 2025 statement that it stands ready to resume cooperation with Boeing. For now, Europe must navigate this dilemma with prudence: balancing sanction principles, industrial realities, and emergent environmental rules—while accelerating the use of recycled titanium wherever feasible.

Lars Wagner to lead Airbus Commercial from 2026

Airbus Wagner

Lars Wagner to lead Airbus Commercial from 1 January 2026, succeeding Christian Scherer. Lars Wagner to lead Airbus Commercial after joining in November to ensure a smooth transition. The appointment reunites Wagner with Airbus after his MTU tenure.

Leadership transition and timeline

Wagner previously held senior Airbus roles from 2003 to 2015. He then moved to MTU Aero Engines, becoming CEO in 2023. The transition begins in November to stabilize operations and governance. Therefore, Airbus signals continuity while refreshing its commercial leadership bench.

Airbus commercial operations still face supply chain constraints. Engine shortages from CFM’s Leap continue to limit A320neo deliveries. However, sequential deliveries improved to 170 in the second quarter. The leadership change seeks execution discipline and better supplier coordination.

Production outlook and strategic context

Airbus must accelerate shipments in the second half to hit goals. Meanwhile, potential UK labor actions could pressure wing output. A U.S. trade probe could also lift costs for aircraft and engines. As a result, risk management remains central to Wagner’s mandate.

Quality issues at Boeing have reshaped market dynamics and schedules. Airbus must translate backlog strength into predictable monthly cadence. Lars Wagner to lead Airbus Commercial through this push for stable ramp. Success will rely on engines, labor stability, and logistics.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Wagner inherits momentum but also clear bottlenecks in engines and labor. Expect sharper supplier governance and cadence targets under his watch. Execution against 2026 milestones will define investor confidence.

Airbus 2Q commercial deliveries fall amid engine shortages

Airbus Family

Airbus 2Q commercial deliveries fell year on year to 170 jets. Airbus 2Q commercial deliveries still rose from 136 in 1Q. Supply chain constraints, especially Leap engines, continued to bite. The company targets about 820 deliveries in 2025.

Program mix and production cadence

Narrowbody output weakened as A320neo deliveries slipped to 126 from 145. A220 shipments improved to 24 from 16 a year earlier. Widebody deliveries were mixed across the quarter. A350 fell to 12 from 14, while A330 rose to 8 from 6. Shipment stability suggests steady, quality-focused production cadence. However, the 38-per-month narrowbody goal still matters.

Risks, orders, and backlog outlook

Airbus must accelerate in the second half to hit 820. First-half deliveries totaled 306, leaving a heavy lift. Potential UK strike action could pressure wing supply. A U.S. Section 232 probe also threatens trade costs. Gross orders reached 214, or 198 net after cancellations. The company’s backlog stood at 8,754 aircraft on 30 June. Rival Boeing delivered 150 aircraft in the quarter. Competitive momentum adds pressure on Airbus execution.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Airbus must convert large backlog into predictable monthly cadence. Engine flow, labor stability, and logistics will define outcomes. Watch A320neo engine availability and A350 build integrity through year-end.

Lyten acquires Northvolt BESS assets to expand European capacity

Lyten

Lyten acquires Northvolt BESS assets to control Europe’s largest BESS manufacturing hub. The 25,000m² Gdansk site includes R&D and modern assembly lines. Installed equipment supports 6GWh annually, with expansion potential above 10GWh.

The deal is expected to close in the third quarter. Financial terms were not disclosed by the parties. Lyten plans to restart production immediately and resume commercial sales.

Immediate restart and lithium-sulfur expansion

Lyten will broaden the product line to include lithium-sulfur batteries. These lithium-sulfur batteries now ship for drones and space missions. They are launching to the International Space Station under commercial programs. Chrysler selected the chemistry for its Halcyon Concept electric vehicle. Therefore, Lyten acquires Northvolt BESS assets to accelerate commercialization.

Financing, footprint, and Northvolt’s portfolio reshaping

In December 2025, Lyten received up to $650 million from the Export-Import Bank. The company also acquired Northvolt’s San Leandro battery plant to scale US output. Meanwhile, Northvolt sold business segments during its restructuring process. Scania acquired the Industrial segment in April 2025.

As a result, this acquisition gives Lyten a transatlantic manufacturing footprint. The Gdansk plant offers scale for utility storage and grid services. Therefore, European customers gain a new BESS source outside China.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This move rapidly converts idle capacity into strategic supply for Europe’s grid storage build-out. Execution on lithium-sulfur at scale remains the key technical and commercial swing factor.

UK Regulator Reviews Boeing-Spirit AeroSystems Deal for Competition Concerns

Spirit AeroSystems

CMA begins assessment of Boeing’s acquisition

The UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has opened an information-gathering phase into Boeing’s acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems. The CMA is inviting comments from stakeholders until 15 July to determine whether the deal could significantly reduce competition in the UK aerospace supply chain. Boeing agreed to acquire Spirit in July 2024, while Airbus secured a parallel agreement to take over Spirit’s facilities tied to Airbus programmes.

Implications for Airbus and UK facilities

Spirit AeroSystems operates two major UK plants, in Prestwick, Scotland, and Belfast, Northern Ireland. These sites manufacture key wing structures for Airbus’ A320, A350, and A220 models. Airbus is set to acquire both sites as part of its agreement with Spirit, along with production of A220 mid-fuselage sections in Belfast if no alternative buyer is found. This parallel arrangement ensures Airbus retains access to strategic UK-based component production, even as Boeing consolidates Spirit’s broader operations.

The CMA has jurisdiction over foreign acquisitions with material UK impact. It can intervene if a target has UK turnover exceeding £100mn, if the merged firms will supply more than 25pc of a UK product market, or if one firm has turnover above £350mn and a significant UK supply share. Spirit’s UK presence clearly meets these thresholds.

Strategic and competitive outlook

While the CMA’s initial inquiry focuses on Boeing’s acquisition, it has not confirmed whether Airbus’ parallel acquisition of UK operations will also fall under review. The CMA’s assessment could shape future aerospace industrial policy, especially as Boeing and Airbus dominate global aircraft production and compete closely across supply chains. Any ruling will influence the structure of UK aerospace manufacturing and its integration into transatlantic aircraft programmes.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The CMA’s review underscores the strategic importance of Spirit’s UK operations for both Boeing and Airbus. If the deal proceeds without remedies, it may consolidate power within the duopoly but also ensure stability of critical aerospace supply lines. The decision will likely balance competition with national industrial resilience.

UK Industrial Strategy for Aluminium: energy relief expands but gaps remain

Alfed

Energy relief expands, but rules remain unclear

The UK Industrial Strategy offers relief but leaves key questions for aluminium. The UK Industrial Strategy for Aluminium expands the British Industry Supercharger. Relief on electricity network charges rises to 90pc from 60pc. However, eligibility for smaller producers and processors remains unclear. Alfed urges guidance so SMEs can budget and invest. The association warns energy competitiveness decides plant viability in Britain.

Policy gaps challenge investment signals

The paper omits critical policy linkages that affect aluminium. Alignment of the UK CBAM with the EU CBAM is undecided. Scope 2 treatment is also unspecified for reporting. As a result, midstream and secondary manufacturing face uncertainty. The UK Industrial Strategy for aluminium mentions innovation, skills and infrastructure. Yet it avoids materials security and downstream coverage. Industry hopes the coming Critical Minerals Strategy fills these gaps.

Clarity determines capital flows into decarbonised metal. Producers need predictable power relief, emissions rules and CBAM timelines. Meanwhile, recyclers require stable scrap and midstream support frameworks. Without certainty, projects stall and costs rise. Therefore, the UK Industrial Strategy for aluminium must name priorities. Recognising aluminium as strategic would anchor investment. That signal would strengthen UK supply chains and exports.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The strategy’s energy relief is meaningful, but policy silence blunts impact. Rapid guidance on CBAM alignment and SME eligibility would unlock capex. Watch the Critical Minerals Strategy for a definitive signal on aluminium’s status.

European Aluminium Renews Call for Aluminium Scrap Export Restrictions

European Aluminium Scrap

Push for Export Fees to Protect Recycling Industry

European Aluminium has issued its third call this year for restrictions on aluminium scrap exports from the EU. The industry body urged policymakers to impose export fees, arguing that such measures would help secure more scrap for European recycling facilities. According to the association, stronger controls could stimulate investment, boost remelting capacity, and close the loop within Europe under strict environmental and social standards.

Impact of Scrap Shortages on EU Producers

The push comes as secondary aluminium alloy producers struggle with squeezed profit margins, driven by high scrap costs and rising European energy and labor expenses. Scrap availability has tightened as generation slowed in automotive, construction, and manufacturing sectors, while exporters in India and Asia raised purchase prices. European Aluminium reported that around 15pc of recycling furnace capacity is currently idled due to insufficient scrap supply, warning that unchecked exports risk undermining the bloc’s sustainability goals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The repeated call from European Aluminium highlights the tension between global scrap demand and Europe’s recycling ambitions. Export restrictions could secure domestic feedstock, but they may also trigger retaliatory measures and complicate global trade. The EU must balance industrial resilience with open-market principles if it aims to lead in the circular economy transition.

Airbus and Embraer Outpace Boeing at Paris Airshow

Paris Airshow

Airbus and Embraer Secure Strong Order Volumes

Airbus and Embraer emerged as the top performers at the 2025 Paris Airshow, collectively securing more than 300 aircraft orders. Airbus received 250 orders, including 53 widebodies and 197 narrowbodies, with options for an additional 156 aircraft. Embraer followed with 77 firm orders and 55 options, strengthening its global market footprint.

Boeing, in contrast, announced only one significant order from Japan’s ANA Holdings, totaling 41 aircraft. The US plane maker scaled back its presence following the Air India crash and relied on previously secured geopolitical-linked deals to bolster its order book.

Supply Chain Challenges Continue to Weigh on Boeing and Airbus

Despite strong order activity, the combined backlog for Airbus and Boeing reached 15,167 aircraft by the end of May. This represents deliveries stretching into the mid-2030s. However, fulfilling these orders remains difficult, as both manufacturers continue to grapple with supply chain disruptions. Airbus highlighted ongoing shortages of CFM LEAP-1A engines for its A320 Family jets, while Boeing faces persistent quality issues.

Industry analysts noted that while demand for air travel is recovering strongly, the ability to deliver aircraft on time is increasingly constrained by logistical and geopolitical risks.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The 2025 Paris Airshow underscored Airbus and Embraer’s competitive momentum, while Boeing struggles with operational and reputational setbacks. Strong order volumes reflect robust long-term demand, yet delivery risks remain high due to strained supply chains. Market leadership will likely hinge on which manufacturer best navigates supply bottlenecks and restores confidence among buyers.

Safran Advances CFM Rise Compressor and Fan Testing

Safran

French aerospace manufacturer Safran is making progress on testing the low-pressure compressor and composite fan blades for the CFM Rise open fan engine, a next-generation propulsion system designed for greater efficiency and lower emissions. The Rise program, led by CFM International, a joint venture between GE Aerospace and Safran Aircraft Engines, is expected to power aircraft entering service in the mid to late 2030s.

Testing Safran’s Next-Generation Compressor

Safran Aero Boosters has prepared its first high-speed low-pressure compressor, named e-artemis, for testing at an aerodynamic facility in Belgium. The tests will evaluate new designs such as an integrally bladed rotor made from titanium alloys for improved durability and resistance to potential impact. These efforts build on Safran’s experience supplying compressors for engines including the CFM Leap, GEnx, GE9X, and GE Passport.

Fan Blade Development and Expanded Facilities

Safran has also tested three large-diameter composite fan blade configurations to validate performance in mechanical integrity, aerodynamics, and acoustics for unducted environments. To support this work, the company is constructing a new test facility in Villaroche, France, featuring an 8-meter-wide chamber for large-scale component testing, set to open next year.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Safran’s advancement of CFM Rise component testing underscores Europe’s commitment to leading sustainable aviation technology. By combining titanium innovation with composite fan design, the program positions itself as a major step toward fuel efficiency and lower emissions in the global aerospace industry.

SSAB Delays Lulea Fossil-Free Steel Mill Project by One Year

SSAB

Electricity Supply Delays Impact Lulea Mini-Mill Timeline

Swedish steelmaker SSAB has postponed the transformation of its Lulea facility into a fossil-free mini-mill by one year. The delay is attributed to setbacks in securing sufficient electricity supply, caused by regional grid upgrade issues. Construction of key substations has been hindered by outage planning problems, leaving the site without the power needed to operate its electric arc furnaces (EAF).

Investment and Production Targets at Risk

SSAB initially approved a €4.5bn investment in January 2022 to build the new mini-mill, replacing its existing blast furnace-based production. The facility will feature two EAFs, a direct strip rolling mill, and a cold rolling line for automotive steels. Once operational, the site is expected to produce 2.5mn t/yr of steel using both recycled scrap and fossil-free sponge iron from the Hybrid demonstration plant in Gallivare. Plans originally targeted 2028 for the first EAF to become operational, reaching full capacity in 2029. However, these milestones are now delayed by one year.

Despite the postponement, SSAB confirmed it will still move forward with EAF installation and maintain its long-term transition strategy. In late 2024, the company secured a €128mn grant from the European Commission to support the transition from coal-based production to a near net-zero emission system, reinforcing its commitment to sustainability despite the temporary setback.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SSAB’s delay underscores the critical role of reliable electricity infrastructure in steel sector decarbonisation. Without timely grid upgrades, even large investments risk losing momentum. The company’s continued push toward fossil-free steel highlights both the opportunities and challenges of Europe’s green industrial transition.

European Aluminium Industry Pushes for Scrap Export Restrictions

Al scrap

Rising Pressure for Scrap Export Controls

The European aluminium scrap market is facing mounting pressure as supply tightness collides with strong export demand. Industry groups such as European Aluminium and Aluminium Deutschland have intensified lobbying for export tariffs to secure domestic scrap supply. Their push comes as the US raises tariffs on primary aluminium imports, potentially boosting American demand for European scrap.

Exports of European aluminium scrap surged in recent years, particularly to Asia. The EU and UK together shipped 1.57mn tonnes in 2024, a 23pc increase compared with 2022. India and China accounted for the bulk of these flows, while exports to the US, though smaller, grew sharply. European Aluminium warned that rising US interest, combined with current supply shortages, risks creating a “full-blown scrap crisis.”

Industry Debate and Market Risks

However, not all stakeholders agree that restrictions are the solution. Scrap merchants argue that supply shortfalls are driven more by weak industrial activity than by exports. Low production in automotive, construction, and machinery has reduced available grades like aluminium turnings, which are essential for European secondary smelters. They caution that tariffs may not address these structural issues and could trigger reciprocal trade barriers, complicating Europe’s own scrap imports.

At the same time, many producers identify high energy costs as the bigger threat to smelter viability. Merchants note that no smelter closures have been directly tied to scrap shortages, while escalating electricity prices have forced cutbacks. Despite this, calls for restrictions continue to gain traction, reflecting a broader trend of resource nationalism as countries prioritize domestic recycling over exports.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The debate over aluminium scrap export restrictions underscores a critical tension between free trade and industrial security. While tariffs may stabilize domestic availability, they risk distorting markets and inviting retaliation. The EU must weigh these risks carefully, especially as global competition for low-carbon feedstock intensifies. Energy costs, more than scrap scarcity, remain the sector’s existential challenge.

Rio Tinto to Test Titanium and Scandium Sorting Technology

Rio Tinto Titanium Mining

Rio Tinto Invests in Ore-Sorting Innovation

UK-Australian mining firm Rio Tinto will invest C$7.6mn ($5.6mn) to test a new ore-sorting technology at its Lac Tio mine in Quebec, Canada. The technology will sort ore based on titanium and scandium content directly at the source, reducing the amount of material transported to Rio Tinto’s iron and titanium metallurgical and critical minerals complex in Quebec.

The government of Quebec will contribute C$2.5mn ($1.8mn) through its support program for critical and strategic metals processing. This partnership underscores the region’s focus on developing advanced processing capacity for critical minerals.

Importance of Titanium and Scandium in Global Markets

Rio Tinto’s Quebec operations already produce titanium dioxide, covering 19% of global demand, alongside scandium oxide. Titanium dioxide is widely used in pigments and sunscreens, while scandium oxide plays a vital role in high-strength aluminum alloys for aircraft, as well as in electronic ceramics and glass.

As a result, the new sorting technology has the potential to increase efficiency, reduce carbon intensity, and strengthen North America’s position in critical minerals supply chains. By advancing titanium and scandium processing, Rio Tinto could also enhance the security of supply for industries facing rising demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rio Tinto’s investment in titanium and scandium ore-sorting technology signals a clear shift toward greater efficiency and sustainability in critical minerals. By reducing transport needs and improving resource utilization, the project strengthens Quebec’s role as a global hub for strategic materials. This initiative also highlights the increasing importance of scandium, a rare but essential element for advanced manufacturing.

Airbus Raises Long-Term Aircraft Demand Forecast

Airbus

Global Aircraft Demand to 2044

Airbus has revised its long-term aircraft demand forecast, projecting strong growth through 2044. The company now expects demand for 43,420 new passenger and freighter aircraft worldwide, a 2% increase from last year’s forecast of 42,430 units.

Passenger jets will dominate deliveries, with 34,250 single-aisle and 8,200 widebody aircraft. Airbus also anticipates demand for 970 freighters, reflecting global trade growth. The in-service fleet is forecast to nearly double from 24,730 in 2024 to 49,210 by 2044, with replacements, growth, and retained jets all contributing to this expansion.

Regional Growth and Market Drivers

The forecast highlights Asia and the Middle East as key regions for traffic growth. Domestic Indian travel is expected to grow at 8.9% annually, underscoring the region’s importance in future demand. Airbus projects passenger traffic growth at 3.6% annually, alongside increases in global trade, GDP, and population.

The revised outlook comes as the aerospace sector prepares for the Paris Air Show. Supply chain challenges, US tariffs, parts shortages, and ongoing investigations remain significant hurdles. However, long-term macroeconomic and demographic factors are expected to outweigh near-term uncertainties.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Airbus’ upward revision signals confidence in long-term demand despite current industry headwinds. The sharp focus on Asia and India reflects the global shift in aviation growth drivers. Supply chain fragility remains a risk, but structural demand growth appears resilient.

UK Unveils Critical Raw Material Recovery Plan for Defence Sector

Team Defence Information

MoD Targets CRM Recycling in Defence Supply Chain

The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) has unveiled a comprehensive framework to recover critical raw materials (CRMs) from end-of-life military equipment, aiming to secure strategic resources and strengthen national supply chain resilience. Developed with trade association Team Defence Information, the plan embeds circular economy principles into procurement, maintenance, and disposal processes across the defence sector. This marks a significant departure from past practices, where most military equipment was discarded without extracting valuable materials.

Defence spending is set to rise, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledging an increase to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 from 2.3% in 2024. This growth will drive demand for specialty metals such as rare earth elements, tungsten, and cobalt — all of which face potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions. The framework addresses these risks by prioritising domestic recovery and processing, reducing dependence on imports from politically sensitive regions.

Expanding Domestic Processing and Recycling Capacity

The new strategy identifies vulnerabilities within the UK's critical minerals supply chain, mapping gaps in domestic recovery and refining capabilities. It recommends building vertically integrated recycling operations capable of handling everything from dismantling retired military vehicles to processing complex alloys used in advanced defence systems. By leveraging its mature electronic waste recycling infrastructure, the UK can extend recovery efforts beyond precious metals such as gold, silver, and platinum group metals to include less commonly recycled elements essential for defence technologies.

However, achieving this goal will require substantial investment. The framework calls for stronger financial incentives, such as tax relief and targeted subsidies, to encourage both public and private sector participation. It also suggests that the MoD could directly fund projects aligned with its operational needs, enabling rapid scaling of pilot programmes. Collaboration with research institutions and industry will be key to developing cost-effective recovery methods for metals embedded in complex military hardware.

Strategic Benefits for National Security

Strengthening domestic CRM recovery is not just an environmental initiative but also a matter of national security. A reliable domestic supply of critical metals can shield the defence sector from price volatility, trade restrictions, and supply chain shocks. This is especially important as global competition for critical minerals intensifies, driven by the energy transition and the rapid growth of clean technologies.

The UK’s mature recycling infrastructure, combined with targeted investment in processing technologies, positions the country to become a leader in defence-related CRM recovery. If successfully implemented, the framework could serve as a model for other NATO members seeking to enhance their strategic resource independence while meeting sustainability targets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The UK’s CRM recovery framework reflects a strategic convergence of defence policy and resource security. By integrating circular economy practices into military logistics, the country can reduce reliance on geopolitically sensitive imports and strengthen its industrial base. The key challenge will be balancing speed of implementation with cost efficiency, ensuring that recovery operations are both technically viable and commercially sustainable.

Eurofer Warns of Fourth Consecutive Year of EU Steel Demand Recession

Eurofer

Steel Market Weakness Deepens Amid Tariff Pressure and Global Overcapacity

The European Steel Association (Eurofer) forecasts that EU apparent steel consumption will contract by 0.9% in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline. This represents a sharp reversal from its earlier prediction of 2.2% growth. Steel-using sectors are also projected to shrink by 0.5%, instead of the 1.6% recovery previously expected.

Eurofer cites the new U.S. 50% tariffs on steel as a significant additional burden on an already fragile market. Global overcapacity, high energy costs, and geopolitical tensions continue to erode the competitiveness of EU steelmakers. As a result, producers may face capacity closures, job losses, and delays in decarbonisation investments.

The association now expects any demand recovery to be postponed until the first quarter of 2026, contingent on improvements in global economic conditions. If no resolution is reached between the EU and U.S. over tariffs, Eurofer urges the European Commission to enact emergency trade measures under its Steel and Metals Action Plan.

In 2024, EU apparent steel consumption declined by 1.1%, while domestic deliveries fell 2%. Steel-using industries, particularly automotive and construction, contracted by 3.7%, intensifying the sector’s challenges.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Eurofer’s outlook underscores the compounding impact of trade disputes, structural overcapacity, and energy costs on Europe’s steel industry. Without swift trade safeguards and competitive energy pricing, EU steelmakers risk losing ground to global rivals, jeopardising both jobs and decarbonisation goals.

European Aluminium Renews Call for Aluminium Scrap Export Restrictions

European Aluminium Scrap

US Tariff Hike Intensifies Scrap Supply Pressures in Europe

European Aluminium has renewed its push for export restrictions on aluminium scrap following US president Donald Trump’s decision to double tariffs on EU steel and aluminium imports to 50%. The association warns that the move could accelerate scrap outflows to the US, worsening an already tight supply situation in Europe.

The industry group first raised the proposal in 2018 when the US imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports. Scrap aluminium was excluded from the sanctions, making it an attractive alternative for US buyers seeking to avoid higher costs on primary aluminium. With the latest tariff hike, European Aluminium says the outflow has intensified, threatening domestic recycling and semi-fabrication operations.

Rising Global Demand for Aluminium Scrap Fuels Competition

Strong demand from buyers in India and other Asian markets has already strained European scrap supply. These buyers offer higher prices, benefiting from lower labour and energy costs and weaker environmental regulations. Additionally, primary aluminium producers in Europe are increasingly using higher-grade scrap to meet automotive customers’ sustainability goals.

European Aluminium reported that scrap exports to the US surged 273% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, already accounting for two-thirds of total exports in 2024. Without swift EU intervention, the association warns that the situation could escalate into a “full-blown scrap crisis,” jeopardizing the viability of Europe’s aluminium recycling and semi-fabrication industry.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The surge in US demand for European aluminium scrap highlights the vulnerability of supply chains to trade policy shifts. For the EU, balancing open trade with the need to safeguard strategic raw materials will be critical. Without targeted restrictions or incentives to retain scrap domestically, Europe risks undermining its own circular economy and low-carbon manufacturing goals.

EU Selects 13 Strategic Raw Material Projects Outside the Bloc

EU strategic raw material projects

EU Seeks to Diversify Critical Mineral Supply Chains

The European Commission has approved 13 strategic raw material projects outside the European Union, estimating a total capital investment of €5.5bn ($6.26bn) to bring them online. Chosen from 49 applications, these projects span Brazil, Canada, Greenland, Kazakhstan, Madagascar, Malawi, New Caledonia, Norway, Serbia, South Africa, the UK, Ukraine, and Zambia. Under the 2024 EU Raw Materials Act, the bloc aims by 2030 to domestically extract 10pc, process 40pc, and recycle 25pc of 17 strategic raw materials. Additionally, no single third country should supply more than 65pc of annual EU consumption.

Targeting Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt, Manganese, and Rare Earths

Ten of the approved projects focus on lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and graphite, while two — Songwe Hill in Malawi and Zandkopsdrift in South Africa — will extract rare earth elements. Other notable initiatives include Rio Tinto’s Jadar lithium and boron project in Serbia, the Integrated Dumont Nickel Project in Canada, Kobaloni Energy’s cobalt processing in Zambia, and Balakhivka Graphite Deposit in Ukraine. The EU will provide coordinated support, including facilitating finance and connecting projects with potential off-takers. Industrial commissioner Stephane Sejourne emphasised that diversifying away from dependency on countries like China is critical, given current reliance levels exceeding 100pc in some refining and recycling segments.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU’s latest selections mark a significant expansion of its global strategic raw material network, signalling an urgent push to secure supplies ahead of the 2030 targets. While the €5.5bn investment is substantial, long-term success will depend on execution speed, environmental considerations, and stable geopolitical relations with host nations.

Tungsten West Requires $93M to Restart Hemerdon Mine Amid Supply Crunch

Tungsten West

UK Miner Seeks Financing as Global Tungsten Prices Surge

Tungsten West requires $93M to restart Hemerdon mine, targeting a 2026 relaunch amid tightening global tungsten supplies. The UK-based company detailed its plans to recommence production at the Hemerdon site in Devon, home to the world’s third-largest tungsten deposit. The total estimated cost excludes financing charges, with the company aiming to secure funding by the end of 2025.

Tungsten West is currently in talks with government-backed agencies in the UK, US, and EU, alongside specialist mining investors, tungsten intermediaries, and end-users. The mine is projected to produce 332,000 metric tonne units (mtu) of tungsten trioxide and 462 tonnes of tin annually over an initial 11-year span, with an additional four years of processing stockpiled material. Although the project was originally slated to restart in 2021, inflation and permitting delays pushed the timeline back.

Supply Shortages and Chinese Export Restrictions Drive Urgency

The decision comes amid tightening global tungsten supply, with prices sharply rising in response to falling inventories and limited Chinese exports. Since February, Beijing has expanded export licence requirements, further restricting global access to tungsten. As a result, European tungsten concentrate prices surged this week to $330–350/dmtu, up over 30% from January’s $260–270/dmtu levels—marking the highest since the benchmark’s inception in 2017.

Meanwhile, European APT prices climbed to $410–430/dmtu, with critically low stockpiles exacerbating upward pressure. As Tungsten West requires $93M to restart Hemerdon mine, the company positions itself as a vital alternative source for downstream consumers increasingly exposed to price volatility and supply chain risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tungsten West’s financing push is timely and strategically critical. With China tightening control over exports and European inventories dwindling, the Hemerdon mine could become a cornerstone in rebalancing Western tungsten supply chains—if capital is secured before market constraints worsen.

AOG Technics Director Charged with Fraud Over Falsified Aircraft Parts

AOG Technics

UK SFO Investigation Triggers Global Safety Inspections and Legal Action

AOG Technics director charged with fraud by the UK’s Serious Fraud Office (SFO) in a case involving falsified documentation for aircraft parts. Jose Alejandro Zamora Yrala, the director of the UK-based supplier, is accused of operating the company for fraudulent purposes between 2019 and 2023. The SFO alleges that AOG Technics misrepresented the origin, status, or condition of jet engine parts, raising significant safety concerns across the aviation industry.

The SFO launched its investigation in December 2023 after safety alerts were issued by EASA, the UK Civil Aviation Authority, and the U.S. FAA. The alerts covered CFM56 engines used in commercial aircraft and GE CF6 engines in cargo jets. As a result, global operators and maintenance providers were instructed to review procurement records and inspect affected components. Several aircraft were grounded worldwide due to the discovery of fraudulently certified engine parts linked to AOG Technics.

Joint UK–Portugal Probe Continues as Court Date Set for June 2025

The investigation is being conducted jointly with Portuguese authorities, focusing on the suspected supply of forged safety certifications and counterfeit parts. Authorities have not ruled out additional charges or arrests as the probe continues. Meanwhile, Zamora Yrala is scheduled to appear in court on 2 June 2025. The case highlights growing concerns about counterfeit materials in aerospace supply chains and may lead to stricter traceability and verification standards across the aviation industry.

As the AOG Technics director is charged with fraud, this case underscores the critical need for transparency and compliance in high-risk sectors like aerospace maintenance and overhaul (MRO). The long-term reputational and regulatory consequences may extend well beyond the courtroom.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The AOG Technics scandal has exposed dangerous weaknesses in aviation’s aftermarket supply chain. As legal proceedings unfold, global regulatory agencies may push for blockchain-enabled traceability, supplier audits, and tamper-proof certification systems to prevent recurrence.