JSL Stainless Steel Sales Rise as Indian Demand Offsets Trade Pressure

JSL stainless steel

JSL stainless steel sales increased in the 2025-26 financial year as strong domestic demand supported broader adoption across infrastructure, mobility, defence and industrial sectors. Indian producer Jindal Stainless sold 2.5mn t of stainless steel during the year to 31 March, up 8% from 2.3mn t a year earlier.

JSL stainless steel sales were driven mainly by India’s internal market. Domestic sales accounted for 92% of annual volumes, showing that the company is prioritising local demand while global trade conditions remain uncertain.

JSL stainless steel sales dipped slightly in January-March to 641,743t from 649,857t in the previous quarter. The company attributed the decline partly to energy-related constraints linked to geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.

The result highlights India’s growing role as a stainless steel demand centre. Consumption is expanding beyond conventional industrial uses into electric vehicles, trailers, containers, real estate, defence, aerospace and infrastructure.

Domestic Demand Anchors Volume Growth

Indian stainless steel demand remained the main growth engine for JSL. Government-backed infrastructure programmes and rising preference for longer-life materials supported consumption across multiple end-use sectors.

Stainless steel is gaining ground where durability, corrosion resistance and lifecycle cost matter. This is particularly relevant for coastal infrastructure, transport equipment, public works, defence systems and industrial applications.

Electric vehicles and trailers are also becoming more important. These sectors use stainless steel for strength, corrosion resistance and long-term reliability in components exposed to demanding operating conditions.

JSL’s domestic focus gives it some insulation from weak or volatile export markets. A strong home market allows the company to keep capacity utilisation higher while managing margin pressure from global competition.

The company is also preparing for further growth. JSL plans to increase annual melt capacity to 4.2mn t during the current financial year ending 31 March 2027.

That expansion will strengthen its position in India’s stainless market. However, the company will need sustained domestic demand growth to absorb the additional capacity without weakening prices.

Imports and Energy Costs Shape Competitive Risk

JSL continues to face pressure from Chinese-origin and Vietnamese stainless steel imports. The company warned that substandard material is allegedly being rerouted through ASEAN countries, raising concerns about trade circumvention and domestic input quality.

This issue matters because import pressure can undermine local producers even when domestic demand is healthy. Low-priced or poor-quality imports can distort pricing, weaken margins and create risks for downstream users.

Trade defence therefore remains important for India’s stainless steel industry. Domestic producers need fair competition if they are expected to invest in higher-value capacity and support national manufacturing goals.

Energy costs are another risk. JSL said geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East affected sourcing of propane, LPG and natural gas used in stainless steel manufacturing.

This shows how stainless steel production remains exposed to energy supply chains. Even when demand is strong, fuel availability and cost can affect output, margins and quarterly shipment performance.

Exports remained steady despite geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainty. JSL is building its presence in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Germany, supported by its value-added product portfolio.

This export strategy is important because value-added stainless products can help protect margins. Higher-specification products are less exposed to commodity price competition and more dependent on quality, qualification and customer relationships.

The Metalnomist Commentary

JSL’s performance shows that India’s stainless steel market is becoming a domestic demand story rather than an export-led one. The company’s next challenge is to defend quality and margins as imports, energy volatility and capacity expansion reshape competition.

Hudbay 2026 Production Guidance Holds as Copper Growth Shifts to Second Half

Hudbay Minerals

Hudbay 2026 production guidance remains unchanged after first-quarter output came in broadly in line with expectations. The Canadian mining company expects to produce 110,000-138,000t of copper this year across its Peruvian and Canadian operations.

Hudbay 2026 production guidance was maintained despite a 10% year-on-year fall in first-quarter copper output. The company produced 27,929t of copper in January-March, compared with 30,958t a year earlier.

Hudbay 2026 production guidance now depends on stronger second-half output from Peru and British Columbia. Mill improvements, grade sequencing and higher throughput are expected to support recovery through the rest of the year.

The company reported a strong financial result despite lower copper and zinc output. Profit attributable to shareholders rose by 90% to $190.4mn, while revenue reached a record $757.3mn.

Peru Throughput Offsets Pampacancha Depletion

Hudbay’s Peruvian copper production rose by 1% on the year to 20,573t in the first quarter. The increase came even though the Pampacancha mine was depleted at the end of 2025.

Record mill throughput at Constancia helped offset the loss of Pampacancha volumes. This shows the importance of processing performance when mine sequencing becomes less favourable.

Hudbay expects further throughput gains in the second half of 2026. The company plans to lift mill rates at Constancia after installing pebble crushers.

The Peruvian government also granted Hudbay a permit on 6 March to increase mill throughput to 31.3mn t/yr. This is 5% above the previous allowance of 29.9mn t/yr.

The permit is strategically important because it gives Hudbay more operating flexibility in Peru. Higher permitted throughput can help protect copper output when grades fluctuate or mine sequencing changes.

Hudbay said social unrest could continue in Peru after federal elections. However, the company does not expect production to be affected.

Canada Grades Weaken as Arizona Expansion Gains Importance

Hudbay’s Canadian copper output fell sharply because of lower ore grades. Manitoba copper production declined by 27% to 2,525t, while British Columbia output fell by 33% to 4,821t.

The company expects British Columbia production to improve in the second half as a mill improvement project supports operations. Manitoba zinc output should also strengthen later in the year on better grade sequencing and higher ore output at Lalor.

First-quarter zinc production fell by 27% to 4,565t, mainly because of lower grades at Manitoba operations. Molybdenum output in Peru slipped by 4% to 380t.

Hudbay said it is fairly well insulated from higher fuel costs linked to the US-Israel war on Iran. Its Manitoba operations require limited oil because underground equipment is electrically or battery driven.

This matters as fuel and logistics costs become more important for global miners. Operations with electrified underground fleets may have better protection against diesel price volatility.

Hudbay’s longer-term copper strategy is increasingly focused on the US. The company acquired Arizona Sonoran Copper Company in March through an all-share transaction worth about C$1.5bn.

It is also developing the Copper World project in Arizona with Mitsubishi’s US subsidiary. These assets give Hudbay future exposure to US copper demand tied to grids, electrification, manufacturing and supply-chain security.

The first-quarter result therefore shows a company balancing near-term grade pressure with longer-term copper growth optionality. Peru remains the key operating platform today, while Arizona could become more important in the next phase.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hudbay’s unchanged guidance shows confidence in second-half operational recovery, but the grade pressure in Canada is a reminder that copper supply remains technically fragile. The Arizona strategy gives Hudbay a stronger long-term position as US copper supply becomes more strategic.

Nalco Record Profit Highlights India’s Aluminium Market Strength

Nalco

Nalco record profit in FY2025/26 shows how stronger production volumes, higher aluminium prices and improved operating efficiency lifted India’s state-owned aluminium producer to a new earnings high. The company reported profit of 58.16bn rupees for the year to March, up 9.2% from a year earlier.

Nalco record profit was supported by revenue growth of 6.3% to Rs178.43bn. In the final quarter of the financial year, profit rose by 7% to Rs17.18bn, while revenue increased by 7.9% to Rs51.03bn.

Nalco record profit also reflects stronger market realisations. Three-month aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange averaged $2,780/t through the financial year, up from $2,553/t in the previous year.

The result reinforces the importance of India’s aluminium value chain. Higher domestic metal sales and stable alumina output strengthen Nalco’s position as India expands infrastructure, power, transport, packaging and industrial manufacturing.

Record Aluminium Output Supports Domestic Demand

Nalco set new records for aluminium production and sales during the year. Cast aluminium production reached 472,000t, while aluminium sales totalled 474,000t.

Domestic sales reached a record 461,000t. This is strategically important because it shows that India’s internal aluminium demand remains strong enough to absorb most of Nalco’s output.

Aluminium consumption in India is tied to several structural growth sectors. Power transmission, construction, transport, packaging, electrical products and manufacturing all require more aluminium as industrial activity expands.

Higher domestic sales also reduce exposure to export volatility. For Nalco, a larger Indian customer base can improve sales stability when global trade flows are affected by tariffs, premiums or regional demand swings.

The production record also points to better operating execution. Higher volumes matter only when supported by plant reliability, cost discipline and stable raw material flows.

Nalco said stronger production, improved realisations and operating efficiency across business units drove the performance. That combination allowed the company to capture better market pricing while expanding output.

Alumina and Price Realisations Strengthen Earnings Base

Nalco also produced 2.3mn t of alumina hydrate and recorded 1.4mn t of alumina sales. Alumina remains central to the company’s integrated aluminium model.

Integrated alumina supply gives aluminium producers stronger cost control. It can also protect margins when external alumina markets tighten or when smelters face higher raw material costs.

The increase in LME aluminium prices was another major earnings driver. Higher benchmark prices improved realisations and helped lift profits even as cost pressures remained a risk across energy-intensive metal production.

For India’s aluminium sector, Nalco’s results show the value of scale and integration. Producers with bauxite, alumina and smelting capacity can benefit more directly when aluminium prices rise and domestic demand expands.

The company’s record performance also supports India’s broader industrial policy goals. Aluminium is essential for electrification, infrastructure, transport lightweighting, renewable energy equipment and downstream manufacturing.

Nalco’s challenge now is to sustain output discipline and margin strength if aluminium prices become more volatile. The market remains exposed to energy costs, global trade measures and supply disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nalco’s record profit shows that India’s aluminium market is gaining strength from domestic consumption, not only export opportunity. The strategic advantage will belong to producers that combine integrated alumina supply, reliable smelting operations and exposure to India’s expanding industrial base.

Nyrstar Australian Smelters Face Uncertain Future Without New Funding

Nyrstar

Nyrstar Australian smelters face an uncertain future as the company reviews possible closures or output curtailments at its Port Pirie lead smelter and Hobart zinc smelter. The review comes after interim government rescue funding expired without a second phase being agreed.

Nyrstar Australian smelters received A$135mn in interim support in August last year. The funding was designed to keep the 160,000 t/yr Port Pirie lead smelter in South Australia and the 280,000 t/yr Hobart zinc smelter in Tasmania operating while longer-term solutions were assessed.

Nyrstar Australian smelters are strategically important because they preserve domestic processing capability for base metals and potential critical minerals. But the facilities remain economically challenged by weak commodity pricing, high energy costs and the need for capital investment.

The company, owned by Trafigura, said it is now exploring all options for the two assets. No final decision has been made on closures or production cuts.

Port Pirie and Hobart Test Australia’s Industrial Policy

The Port Pirie and Hobart smelters sit at the centre of Australia’s debate over whether strategic processing capacity should be preserved through public support. Both assets are partway through two-year feasibility studies to diversify output into critical minerals such as bismuth and tellurium.

This diversification is important because traditional lead and zinc smelting margins have been under pressure. Adding critical minerals could improve the strategic value of the facilities and create new revenue streams.

Port Pirie has already started moving in that direction. The first shipment of antimony from a pilot plant was exported in February under the first-phase funding agreement.

Nyrstar said the Port Pirie pilot plant could produce 2,000 t/yr of antimony by the end of this year. That would be meaningful because antimony is increasingly viewed as a strategic metal for defence, flame retardants, batteries and industrial alloys.

Hobart has already faced production cuts during weaker zinc market conditions. That history shows how exposed the site remains to zinc prices, energy costs and operating margins.

Without a second funding phase, Nyrstar may cut capital expenditure and operating costs as part of the review. That could delay diversification plans and weaken Australia’s ability to preserve downstream metal processing capacity.

Critical Minerals Could Decide Smelter Value

The future of the two smelters may depend on whether they can become more than conventional lead and zinc assets. Processing critical minerals could give them a stronger role in Australia’s industrial strategy.

Australia’s Future Made in Australia policy aims to retain industrial capability and use renewable energy to support low-carbon exports, including metals. Smelters such as Port Pirie and Hobart fit that policy direction if they can become competitive and strategically relevant.

The challenge is cost. Existing smelters need reliable power, capital upgrades and market support to compete against lower-cost global processors.

Recent government support for aluminium and copper processors shows that Canberra is willing to intervene when strategic industrial assets face closure. But each case still needs a credible long-term pathway.

For Nyrstar, that pathway may involve antimony, bismuth, tellurium and other by-product metals. These materials can improve the value of complex smelting operations if they are recovered efficiently and sold into secure supply chains.

For Australia, the decision is broader than one company. Losing smelting capacity would weaken domestic processing depth at a time when governments are trying to reduce dependence on concentrated foreign refining systems.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nyrstar’s Australian smelter review shows that critical minerals policy must extend beyond mining into processing assets that already exist. The key question is whether Australia can turn legacy smelters into strategic by-product platforms before high energy costs force permanent closures.

Aperam Stainless Steel Earnings Rise as European Demand Recovers

Aperam

Aperam stainless steel earnings improved in the first quarter as seasonal demand recovered in Europe and average selling prices strengthened. The Luxembourg-based stainless producer reported adjusted Ebitda of €90mn in January-March, up from €67mn in the previous quarter and €86mn a year earlier.

Aperam stainless steel earnings were supported by higher shipments, better utilisation and a more favourable pricing environment. Group shipments rose to 617,000t from 554,000t in the fourth quarter and 575,000t a year earlier.

Aperam stainless steel earnings also benefited from the company’s diversified business model. Stainless and electrical steel, services, alloys, recycling and downstream activities all contributed to a stronger start to the year.

The company described the result as its best first quarter in three years. It expects second-quarter adjusted Ebitda to be significantly higher if metal and product prices remain near current levels.

Stainless and Electrical Steel Recover From Late-2025 Weakness

Aperam’s stainless and electrical steel division showed the clearest improvement. Adjusted Ebitda rose to €35mn from €11mn in the fourth quarter and €28mn a year earlier.

Segment shipments increased by 3.6% from the previous quarter to 430,000t. European demand improved seasonally, although Brazilian shipments were lower.

Average steel selling prices rose by 10.3% from the fourth quarter to €2,200/t. Prices remained below the €2,417/t recorded a year earlier, but the quarterly increase helped restore margins.

The improvement suggests European stainless markets are recovering from a difficult end to 2025. Low capacity utilisation, import pressure and subdued consumption had weighed on producer earnings.

Higher utilisation helped the division in the first quarter. Positive valuation effects also supported earnings, showing how pricing momentum can lift stainless producers when inventories and product values move favourably.

Aperam’s outlook also reflects a stronger European trade policy backdrop. Trade defence regulation could give domestic producers more protection against import pressure, especially if demand continues to recover.

Downstream Services, Alloys and Recycling Strengthen the Value Chain

Aperam’s services and solutions segment also improved. Adjusted Ebitda rose to €20mn from €7mn in the fourth quarter and €13mn a year earlier.

Shipments increased to 191,000t from 159,000t in the previous quarter. Average selling prices rose by 3.7% to €2,733/t, reflecting better downstream demand.

The alloys and specialties division generated adjusted Ebitda of €27mn. This was higher than €22mn in the fourth quarter, although slightly below the €29mn reported a year earlier.

Shipments in alloys and specialties were stable at 16,000t. Average selling prices declined by 3.1% to €15,846/t, but seasonal demand helped offset higher maintenance costs.

Aperam strengthened this higher-value position after the quarter by acquiring Magnetec Group. The acquisition adds nanocrystalline soft magnetic components and expands the company’s reach into electrical engineering and electronics markets.

The recycling and renewables segment showed higher activity but lower earnings. Shipments rose by 23% to 357,000t, while sales increased to €431mn.

Adjusted Ebitda in recycling and renewables fell to €23mn from €32mn. The fourth quarter had benefited from unusually strong year-end valuation effects, making the comparison difficult.

The recycling business remains strategically important. Aperam’s scrap integration gives it some protection against volatility in nickel, ferro-alloys and stainless scrap prices.

This matters because stainless steel production depends heavily on raw material cost control. Integrated scrap flows can improve flexibility when alloying metals and scrap markets become volatile.

Aperam’s first-quarter result therefore points to more than a cyclical recovery. It shows that stainless producers with downstream services, alloy exposure and recycling integration can defend earnings better when European demand improves.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aperam’s first quarter shows that European stainless steel is recovering, but not evenly. The strongest signal is the value-chain effect: producers with scrap integration, downstream services and specialty alloy exposure are better placed than those relying only on commodity stainless volumes.

Glencore Copper Production Rises as DRC Cobalt Quota Reshapes Output Priorities

Glencore

Glencore copper production rose sharply in the first quarter as higher grades at its African copper mines and stronger throughput at Antamina lifted output. The Switzerland-based trading and mining group produced 199,600t of copper, up 19% from a year earlier.

Glencore copper production growth contrasts with a steep fall in cobalt output. Own-sourced cobalt production dropped by 39% to 5,800t, mainly because the Democratic Republic of Congo’s export quota system has changed how producers manage shipments and mine planning.

Glencore copper production is now becoming more important inside its DRC asset base because cobalt export limits have made copper the clearer operating priority. This shift shows how state policy can directly reshape output behaviour in multi-metal mining systems.

The company maintained full-year production guidance for copper, nickel and zinc, despite weaker output in several other metals. Copper guidance remains at 810,000-870,000t for the year.

DRC Quota System Pushes Cobalt Lower

The sharp fall in cobalt output reflects the DRC’s quota system, introduced after the country moved away from its earlier export ban framework. The system capped shipments and set annual limits for 2026-27, with an additional strategic pool.

For Glencore, the practical effect is clear. Its DRC assets are now prioritising copper production because copper can move through the market with fewer quota-related constraints.

This matters for battery and superalloy supply chains. The DRC remains the world’s dominant source of mined cobalt, so export policy can quickly affect availability, pricing and producer behaviour.

Cobalt is not produced in isolation at many Congolese operations. It is often linked to copper mining, which means policy limits on cobalt can influence mine sequencing, processing priorities and inventory decisions.

The first-quarter numbers therefore point to a more managed cobalt market. Supply is not only a function of ore grades and plant capacity. It is increasingly controlled by export approvals, quotas and state strategy.

Copper benefited from stronger grades at African operations and higher throughput at Antamina in Peru. That performance reinforces copper’s stronger strategic position at a time when demand from grids, electrification, industrial policy and data centres continues to attract market attention.

Nickel, Zinc and Ferro-Chrome Show Operational Pressure

Glencore’s nickel output fell by 9% to 17,200t. The decline was caused by a furnace disruption at the Sudbury complex in Canada, which affected matte shipment timing to Norway.

Nickel guidance remained unchanged at 70,000-80,000t. This suggests Glencore sees the first-quarter weakness as manageable rather than a full-year supply reset.

Zinc output fell by 17% to 176,900t. The decline was mainly linked to the closure of the Lady Loretta mine in Australia and lower output from Kazzinc in Kazakhstan.

Zinc guidance also remained unchanged at 700,000-740,000t. However, the first-quarter result shows how mine closures and regional production issues can still weigh on quarterly availability.

Ferro-chrome output collapsed by 95% to 13,000t because of continued care and maintenance at Glencore’s chrome smelting operations and the phased restart of the Lion Smelter in South Africa.

South African ferro-chrome remains under pressure from high energy prices and competition from lower-cost Chinese material. This has forced output cuts at major producers and weakened South Africa’s position in global ferro-alloy supply.

Glencore’s vanadium pentoxide production rose by 5% to 2,300t, offering a small positive signal in another strategic alloy material.

Overall, the quarter shows a company benefiting from copper strength while managing policy and cost pressures across cobalt, nickel, zinc and ferro-chrome. The most important signal is that copper and cobalt are now being shaped by very different forces: copper by grade and throughput, cobalt by DRC export control.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s results show how government policy can be as powerful as geology in multi-metal supply chains. The DRC cobalt quota is not only reducing cobalt output; it is pushing producers to prioritise copper in one of the world’s most strategic mining regions.

Teck Arizona Copper Spin-Out Preserves Optional Supply Upside

Kodiak Copper

Teck Arizona copper spin-out plans show how major miners are trying to retain long-term exposure to copper growth without committing near-term development capital. Teck Resources and junior explorer Kodiak Copper plan to place two lightly drilled Arizona copper projects into a new listed exploration company.

The Teck Arizona copper spin-out would combine Teck’s Copper Hill asset with Kodiak’s Mohave project under Kay Copper, a US-focused exploration vehicle. The new company would be positioned to drill and advance the assets, but any production would remain years away.

The Teck Arizona copper spin-out is modest compared with Teck’s larger strategic moves, including its planned merger with Anglo American. However, it fits a copper market increasingly focused on optional supply, future scarcity and the difficulty of bringing new mines into production.

The structure allows Teck to keep exposure to potential US copper upside while shifting exploration risk and funding needs to outside investors. For Kodiak, the transaction creates a clearer platform around Arizona copper exploration.

Kay Copper Gives Teck Exposure Without Near-Term Capital Pressure

Kay Copper would hold two early-stage Arizona copper projects that have not seen recent drilling. This means the assets are still far from any development decision, resource definition or mine construction timeline.

For Teck, that distance matters. The company can preserve future upside while focusing capital on larger, more advanced priorities. A spin-out also gives investors a dedicated vehicle for exploration risk that may not fit inside a larger producer’s near-term capital plan.

This is a practical response to the copper market. Demand from grids, electric vehicles, data centres and industrial electrification continues to strengthen the long-term case for copper.

At the same time, new copper supply remains difficult to build. Permitting delays, lower grades, higher capital intensity and community approval challenges have extended project timelines across the industry.

Arizona remains strategically relevant because the US wants more domestic copper supply. But early-stage projects still need drilling, studies, permitting, financing and infrastructure before they can become real tonnes.

The Kay Copper structure therefore does not solve near-term supply tightness. It creates an option on future US copper production in the 2030s.

Copper Market Rewards Optionality as New Supply Lags

The deal reflects a broader shift in copper strategy. Companies are increasingly trying to hold undeveloped assets because future supply is becoming more valuable.

Physical copper availability is already under closer scrutiny as demand rises from electrification and power infrastructure. The market is also becoming more policy-driven, especially in the US, where copper is increasingly linked to industrial security and domestic manufacturing.

In that environment, even early-stage assets can attract interest. They may not produce soon, but they offer exposure to a future market where permitted copper projects could carry a stronger strategic premium.

The transaction also shows how larger miners can use junior vehicles to advance non-core exploration assets. This allows capital markets to fund drilling while the major retains some upside.

For investors, the risk remains high. Copper Hill and Mohave are lightly drilled, and any production would not arrive until the 2030s at the earliest. Exploration success, permitting and project economics are still unproven.

For the copper sector, however, the message is clear. Companies do not want to lose optional copper positions in stable jurisdictions, even when those projects are not ready for development.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Teck’s Arizona spin-out is small in tonnage terms but meaningful in market psychology. In a copper market worried about future supply, even distant exploration assets can become strategic options.

Amag Aluminium Earnings Rise as Middle East Disruption Lifts Prices and Premiums

Amag Aluminium

Amag aluminium earnings increased in the first quarter as Middle East supply disruption pushed aluminium prices and premiums higher. The Austrian producer reported Ebitda of €57.1mn in January-March, up 23.9% from a year earlier.

Amag aluminium earnings improved despite broadly stable shipment volumes. Total shipments slipped by only 1% on the year to 109,700t, while revenue edged up by 0.6% to €403.8mn.

Amag aluminium earnings show how regional aluminium producers can benefit when supply disruption lifts price realisations and widens margins. The company’s metals division was the strongest performer, helped by higher aluminium values and lower alumina feedstock costs.

The result also highlights the uneven impact of geopolitical disruption. Higher prices can support upstream and semi-fabricated aluminium margins in the short term, even as downstream buyers face rising input costs.

Rolling Division Strength Supports Value-Added Aluminium Position

Amag’s rolling division delivered higher shipments and stronger earnings in the first quarter. Shipments rose by 2.6% to 55,600t, while divisional Ebitda increased by 41% to €25.4mn.

The rolling result is important because flat-rolled aluminium products serve higher-value industrial markets. These include packaging, transport, aerospace, automotive, construction and specialty applications.

Stable or rising rolling shipments suggest that demand for Amag’s value-added products remained resilient despite higher aluminium costs. This gives the company a stronger platform than producers exposed only to commodity aluminium pricing.

Rolling margins can benefit when producers manage pass-through mechanisms, product mix and inventory timing effectively. However, sustained premium inflation can eventually pressure downstream customers if end-market demand weakens.

The first-quarter performance therefore reflects favourable near-term conditions. Amag converted price strength into stronger earnings without a major loss of volume.

Metals Division Benefits From Higher Aluminium and Lower Alumina

Amag’s metals division posted the strongest earnings increase. Ebitda rose by 54.6% to €31.8mn, even though shipments fell by 4% to 31,500t.

The improvement was driven by wider margins. Lower alumina feedstock prices reduced input pressure, while higher aluminium values lifted realised returns.

This margin spread is important for aluminium producers. When alumina costs ease while aluminium prices rise, integrated or metal-exposed businesses can see a rapid improvement in profitability.

The casting division also improved. Ebitda rose by 44.5% to €1.3mn, despite shipments falling by 4.6% to 22,600t.

Amag now expects full-year 2026 Ebitda of €150mn-180mn, up from €137mn in 2025. The guidance implies that the company sees continued support from market conditions, pricing and operating performance.

Still, the outlook depends on how long Middle East-related aluminium disruption continues and whether higher premiums begin to weaken demand. The current benefit could narrow if supply normalises or if customers resist further price increases.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Amag’s first-quarter result shows how aluminium disruption can lift earnings even without volume growth. The strategic question is whether higher premiums remain a margin tailwind or eventually become a demand headwind for downstream users.

Constellium Record Earnings Highlight North American Aluminium Tightness

Constellium

Constellium record earnings in the first quarter show how favourable North American aluminium market conditions are lifting margins even when shipment volumes remain flat. The France-based downstream aluminium producer reported segment-adjusted Ebitda of $359mn, up 93% from a year earlier.

The company’s revenue rose by 24% to $2.5bn in January-March, while total shipments slipped by 1% to 370,000t. This split matters because Constellium’s performance was driven less by volume growth and more by pricing, product mix, recycling economics and supply shortages in key end markets.

Constellium record earnings were strongest in packaging and automotive rolled products, where North American supply tightness created better commercial conditions. Aerospace and transport also improved, supported by stronger customer activity and rising shipments.

The result reinforces a broader aluminium market theme. Downstream producers with qualified capacity, scrap access and exposure to higher-value products can benefit even in a volatile macroeconomic environment.

Automotive Rolled Products and Recycling Margins Lift North America

Constellium’s packaging and automotive rolled products division delivered the largest earnings improvement. Ebitda rose by 152% on the year to $151mn, while revenue increased by 24% to $1.48bn.

Shipments in the division fell by 3% to 261,000t. The earnings gain despite lower volumes shows that market conditions, not only tonnage, shaped the quarter.

North America was the key driver. Constellium benefited from a supply shortage in automotive rolled products, which improved pricing power and margins for qualified suppliers.

Automotive aluminium supply remains highly sensitive to qualification, product consistency and availability. Automakers cannot easily switch suppliers for body sheet, structural materials or specialised rolled products without approvals and technical validation.

This gives established producers an advantage when supply tightens. Customers need reliable metal, not simply the lowest-cost material.

Constellium also benefited from better US recycling margins. Trade tariffs affected aluminium products but not scrap, improving the relative economics of recycled inputs.

That detail is important. Scrap access can become a margin advantage when tariffs, regional premiums and product shortages reshape the aluminium value chain.

Recycling also supports lower-carbon aluminium supply. Customers in automotive, packaging and industrial markets increasingly need recycled content, traceability and regional supply resilience.

The first-quarter result therefore shows how recycling and trade policy can reinforce each other. Tariffs changed product economics, while scrap availability gave Constellium a stronger cost position.

Aerospace and Transport Demand Strengthens Product Mix

Constellium’s aerospace and transport division also performed strongly. Ebitda rose by 24% to $102mn, while revenue increased by 30% to $609mn.

Shipments in the segment rose by 18% to 60,000t. This was the clearest volume-growth signal across the company’s business units.

The aerospace recovery matters because aircraft programmes need qualified aluminium plate, sheet and extrusions. These materials support structural components, fuselage sections, wings, transport systems and lightweight design.

Aerospace aluminium demand is also tied to long customer approval cycles. Once a supplier is qualified, stable production and delivery reliability become strategically valuable.

The automotive structures and industry division posted Ebitda of $24mn, up 50% from a year earlier. Revenue rose by 9% to $415mn, while shipments fell by 3% to 51,000t.

This again shows the importance of mix and margin. Constellium improved earnings even where volumes declined, suggesting stronger commercial discipline and better end-market positioning.

The company raised its 2026 adjusted Ebitda guidance to $900mn-940mn. Chief executive Ingrid Joerg said macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty remains, but the company is optimistic about its end-market positioning.

Constellium record earnings therefore point to a market where quality of exposure matters more than headline volume. Packaging, automotive rolled products, aerospace and recycling-linked margins are driving performance.

For the aluminium sector, the message is clear. Supply shortages, tariffs, scrap economics and aerospace recovery are reshaping profitability across downstream producers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Constellium’s quarter shows that aluminium value is moving toward qualified products, regional supply and recycling economics. The strongest performers will be producers that can combine technical approvals, scrap access and exposure to tight North American end markets.

SMEL Specialty Stainless Steel Capacity Plan Targets Higher-Value Indian Steel Demand

Shyam Metalics and Energy

SMEL specialty stainless steel capacity is set to expand by 2029 as India’s Shyam Metalics and Energy prepares new investments aimed at raising the share of higher-margin, value-added steel products in its portfolio. The company plans to invest an additional Rs27bn across two projects, subject to board approval.

SMEL specialty stainless steel capacity growth will be supported by a major stainless steel downstream expansion and a new special bar quality and specialty wire rod mill. Both projects are scheduled for commissioning by 2029.

SMEL specialty stainless steel capacity expansion reflects a broader shift in India’s steel industry. Producers are moving beyond commodity long products and into higher-specification materials for automotive, rail, engineering, infrastructure and coastal applications.

The proposed investment also aligns with India’s strategy to reduce dependence on imported cold-rolled stainless products. Local downstream capacity can improve supply security for manufacturers that need consistent quality, shorter lead times and domestic sourcing options.

SBQ and Specialty Wire Rod Mill Moves SMEL Into Premium Long Steel

SMEL plans to invest Rs9bn in an SBQ and specialty wire rod project with 800,000 t/yr of capacity. This will mark the company’s entry into premium long steel production.

Special bar quality steel is used in demanding applications where strength, consistency, machinability and metallurgical control are important. Key end-use sectors include automotive components, engineering products, industrial machinery, infrastructure and precision manufacturing.

Specialty wire rod also gives SMEL access to higher-value markets than conventional long steel. These products can serve fasteners, springs, bearings, welding wire, automotive parts and other engineered applications.

The investment is strategically important because premium long steel requires stronger process control and customer qualification. Producers must meet tighter chemistry, cleanliness, dimensional and mechanical property requirements.

For SMEL, the project could improve margins by shifting part of its output toward more specialised products. It also reduces exposure to lower-margin commodity steel cycles, where pricing is more vulnerable to oversupply and weak construction demand.

Stainless Expansion Targets Import Substitution and Downstream Integration

The larger part of the investment, Rs18bn, will go toward stainless steel downstream expansion. The plan includes melt shop expansion, higher hot-strip mill capacity, cold-rolling expansion and a new reversible cold-rolling mill.

SMEL also plans to add hot-rolled, cold and bright annealing and pickling lines. These process additions are important because stainless steel value increases significantly as producers move from melt shop output into rolled, finished and surface-treated products.

Cold-rolled stainless steel is especially important for automotive, rail, appliances, process equipment, industrial fabrication and coastal infrastructure. These markets need better surface quality, tighter tolerances and stronger corrosion performance.

The project could help reduce India’s reliance on imported cold-rolled stainless products. This matters as domestic demand grows and buyers seek more reliable local supply.

The expansion also improves SMEL’s integration across the stainless value chain. By adding more downstream processing, the company can capture more value from each tonne produced and offer a wider product range to industrial customers.

The key execution challenge will be qualification. Automotive, rail and infrastructure customers often require stable quality, repeatable processing and technical approvals before shifting supply.

If SMEL delivers the expansion on schedule, it could become a more important domestic supplier in India’s value-added stainless and specialty steel market. The company’s success will depend on ramp-up discipline, product quality and customer conversion, not capacity alone.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SMEL’s investment plan shows that Indian steel growth is moving toward quality, not only volume. The real opportunity lies in import substitution and higher-specification products, where domestic producers can capture more value from India’s industrial expansion.

First Quantum Copper Output Falls But Cobre Panama Stockpile Lifts 2026 Guidance

First Quantum

First Quantum copper output declined in the first quarter as lower production from the company’s Zambian mines offset a sharp increase in nickel output. The Canadian miner produced 96,469t of copper in January-March, down 3.2% from a year earlier.

First Quantum copper output was weaker at both Kansanshi and Sentinel, the company’s two main operating copper assets in Zambia. Copper sales also fell by 11.7% to 90,049t because of shipment timing and inventory replenishment at Kansanshi after stronger sales in the previous quarter.

First Quantum copper output guidance for 2026 was raised despite the weaker first-quarter result. The company increased its full-year copper production outlook to 405,000-475,000t after Panama approved the processing and export of stockpiled ore at the closed Cobre Panama mine.

The approval changes the near-term production picture, but it does not reopen Cobre Panama. The mine remains closed after protests and a court ruling in 2023 found its operating contract unconstitutional.

Zambian Mines Weaken as Grades and Recoveries Pressure Output

Kansanshi produced 45,345t of copper in the first quarter, down 2.6% from a year earlier. The decline reflects the challenge of maintaining output from mature large-scale copper operations.

Sentinel produced 45,252t of copper, down 2.4% on the year. Lower feed grades and weaker recoveries reduced output at the mine.

These results show how copper supply can weaken even when operating assets remain active. Mine grades, recovery rates, mill performance and shipment timing all influence quarterly supply.

The weaker sales figure also matters. First Quantum sold 90,049t of copper in the quarter, below production, because of shipment timing and the need to rebuild Kansanshi inventories.

For copper markets, Zambia remains important because it is one of Africa’s key producing regions. Stable output from Kansanshi and Sentinel supports global supply at a time when buyers are increasingly focused on secure copper sources outside more politically sensitive routes.

First Quantum’s nickel production moved in the opposite direction. Output rose by 165.4% on the year to 12,340t, supported by higher grades and recoveries.

The nickel increase improves the company’s diversified metals profile. But copper remains the strategic core of First Quantum’s business and the main driver of market attention.

Cobre Panama Stockpile Approval Adds Near-Term Copper Supply

First Quantum raised its 2026 copper production guidance after Panama approved the removal, processing and export of stockpiled ore at Cobre Panama. The site will process around 38mn t of stockpiled ore containing about 70,000t of recoverable copper.

This approval gives First Quantum a short-term supply and cash-flow opportunity from material already mined before the shutdown. It does not involve new mining, drilling or blasting.

Cobre Panama was one of the largest copper mines in the Americas before its closure. It produced 331,000t of copper in its final year, equal to about 1.5% of global supply.

The mine’s shutdown removed a major source of copper supply and had a severe impact on First Quantum’s revenue base. The stockpile processing approval partly eases that impact, but only for material already on site.

The long-term future of Cobre Panama remains unresolved. Any return to mining would require a new political and legal settlement with Panama.

This distinction is important for copper markets. Stockpile processing can add near-term units, but it does not restore the full mine or solve the broader supply loss from the 2023 closure.

First Quantum kept its 2026 nickel production guidance unchanged at 30,000-40,000t. That suggests the main guidance change is tied directly to Cobre Panama’s approved stockpile treatment.

For investors and copper buyers, the company’s outlook now depends on two tracks. Zambia must stabilise operating performance, while Panama determines how much value can be recovered from Cobre Panama without reopening the mine.

The Metalnomist Commentary

First Quantum’s guidance increase is a stockpile story, not a full Cobre Panama recovery story. The approval adds useful copper units, but the real strategic question remains whether Panama and First Quantum can ever rebuild a legal framework for long-term mining.

Copper Aluminium Pricing Divergence Deepens as Middle East Shock Turns Metal-Specific

Sucden Financial

Copper aluminium pricing divergence is becoming clearer as base metal markets absorb the first shock of the Middle East conflict. Copper is shifting back toward physical flows, inventories and policy risk, while aluminium remains supported by direct disruption to Middle East supply chains.

Copper aluminium pricing divergence reflects a broader change in market behaviour. Traders are moving away from headline-led volatility and focusing more on spreads, premiums, inventories and real supply constraints.

Copper aluminium pricing divergence also shows that the base metals complex is no longer trading as one geopolitical basket. Each metal is now being priced according to its own exposure to the war, its physical balance and its ability to replace disrupted supply.

UK broker Sucden Financial said the conflict initially drove broad volatility across commodities. But that phase is fading, leaving copper and aluminium on different pricing paths.

Copper Moves From Macro Risk to Physical and Policy Pricing

Copper began the year as a macro-driven metal. Prices moved with broader risk sentiment, oil, gold and cross-asset positioning.

That relationship is now weakening. Copper is increasingly being priced through its own market signals, including Shanghai inventory drawdowns, US flow incentives, mined supply quality and sulphuric acid-related supply-chain disruption.

This shift matters because copper is no longer responding only to global growth fears or geopolitical headlines. It is being priced through physical availability and policy exposure.

The Comex premium has periodically reopened the arbitrage for copper units to move into the US. This has made the interaction between LME, Comex, inventories and US policy more important to price discovery.

Sucden said the next phase of copper pricing could be shaped by material-security concerns. These include tariff threats, incentives to hold more metal in the US and the strategic value of copper in energy infrastructure.

This is a macro-to-micro rotation. Copper is moving away from broad geopolitical trading and toward a market driven by premiums, spreads, stock locations and supply-chain constraints.

Sulphuric acid remains a key hidden risk. Copper supply from leaching operations, particularly in regions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile, can be affected if acid availability tightens or costs rise.

The market still remains exposed to recession fears. A deeper economic slowdown caused by the conflict could weigh on copper demand and financial positioning.

However, copper’s resilience suggests that traders are giving greater weight to structural tightness. Supply challenges, low-quality mined material and long-term demand from grids, electrification and industrial policy continue to support the metal.

Sucden argued that copper’s long-term direction remains higher and that price dips should be bought. The structural case has not changed, while eventual dollar weakness after a conflict resolution could provide further support.

Aluminium Holds a Firmer Physical Floor After Supply Shock

Aluminium has already repriced much of the Middle East disruption. The metal briefly moved toward the upper end of its recent range as the conflict escalated, but repeated failures above $3,650/t suggest the market needs further supply deterioration to justify another major move higher.

This does not mean aluminium is weak. It means the initial panic premium has already been absorbed.

Aluminium’s support is more physical than copper’s. The disruption affects smelting, feedstock flows and export availability from the Middle East, making the supply shock more direct than headline numbers may suggest.

Sucden said aluminium remains the base metal with the clearest exposure to the Middle East war. Ex-China supply is tighter, London Metal Exchange inventories are falling and nearby spreads have moved into backwardation.

Chinese inventories have risen, but that does not fully offset the tightness outside China. Regional availability matters more when logistics, origin and delivery routes are disrupted.

Aluminium smelters also cannot restart quickly. Once production is curtailed, bringing capacity back requires time, stable power and commercial confidence.

Elevated energy prices add another layer of cost support. Even if the war de-escalates, smelters and downstream producers may still face a higher operating cost base.

Sucden said de-escalation could initially push aluminium prices toward $3,400/t. But any decline may prove short-lived if physical tightness remains.

This gives aluminium limited immediate upside but also limited downside. The market has already priced much of the shock, yet replacement supply is not easy to find.

The broader implication is that aluminium is trading a tighter physical balance, not only a war premium. That makes its price floor firmer than a market driven purely by sentiment.

For industrial buyers, the copper-aluminium split is important. Copper procurement risk is increasingly tied to policy, US flows and strategic inventory. Aluminium risk is tied more directly to missing tonnes, energy costs and disrupted regional supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Middle East conflict is exposing the real structure of each base metal market. Copper is becoming a policy-and-premium metal, while aluminium is being supported by a more immediate physical supply shock.

Anglo American Copper Output Rises as Chile Offsets Quellaveco Grade Decline

Anglo American, Copper

Anglo American copper output rose slightly in the first quarter as stronger Chilean mine performance offset lower grades at Quellaveco in Peru. The global mining group produced 170,400t of copper during the quarter, up 1% from a year earlier.

Anglo American copper output was supported by higher throughput at Los Bronces and Collahuasi, along with improved recoveries at Collahuasi. Chilean copper production increased by 9% to 97,000t, while Peruvian output fell by 8% to 73,400t.

Anglo American copper output remains on track with unchanged 2026 guidance of 700,000-760,000t. The company had already lowered that target in February because of expected lower grades at Collahuasi.

The result confirms that copper remains Anglo’s strategic centre as the group continues reshaping its portfolio. Nickel is moving toward disposal, manganese is recovering from weather disruption, and copper is becoming the company’s clear lead business.

Los Bronces and Collahuasi Support Chilean Copper Performance

Los Bronces output rose by 12% to 48,500t after the restart of its second plant. The restart improved throughput and gave Anglo a stronger base in Chile during the quarter.

Collahuasi also delivered a stronger result. Anglo’s attributable share of production rose by 10% to 38,800t, supported by higher throughput and improved recoveries.

These gains helped offset weaker output from Quellaveco. The Peruvian mine faced expected lower grades, reducing copper production despite its importance as one of Anglo’s major growth assets.

The first-quarter result shows how copper production increasingly depends on ore grade, plant availability and recovery performance. Higher throughput can support output, but grade decline remains a major constraint across the industry.

Anglo’s growth is still weighted toward the second half of the year. Market attention will focus on Collahuasi’s return to higher-grade ore, the ramp-up of desalination capacity and the continued benefit from Los Bronces’ second plant restart.

The proposed merger with Teck Resources also remains important. Anglo said the deal is still on track for completion between September 2026 and March 2027. South Korean approval has been secured, leaving Chinese anti-monopoly clearance as the final major regulatory hurdle.

If completed, the merger would deepen Anglo’s copper exposure and reinforce the industry trend toward scale in high-quality copper assets.

Nickel Falls as Manganese Rebounds From Weather-Hit Base

Anglo’s nickel production fell by 7% year on year to 9,100t because of maintenance at Barro Alto and Codemin in Brazil. Barro Alto output declined by 7% to 7,500t, while Codemin fell by 6% to 1,600t.

The company expects nickel production to improve gradually from the second quarter. However, nickel is no longer central to Anglo’s long-term portfolio strategy.

Anglo is still working through the European Commission’s anti-monopoly review of the agreed sale of its nickel assets to MMG Singapore Resources. The deal is worth up to $500mn.

Manganese ore output rose sharply from a weak base. Anglo’s 40% attributable production jumped by 118% to just over 759,000t after operations recovered from the disruption caused by tropical cyclone Megan in early 2025.

Sales volumes rose even more strongly, increasing by 217% to 946,000t. However, weather still affected the business, with second-quarter output down 16% from the fourth quarter of 2025 because of adverse weather and cyclone Narelle.

The portfolio direction is now clearer. Anglo is prioritising copper and iron ore while continuing sale processes for steelmaking coal and De Beers. Nickel is becoming a disposal asset, and manganese remains a recovery story after weather-related disruption.

For copper markets, Anglo’s modest first-quarter increase is less important than its second-half execution. The company needs stronger grades, stable plant performance and project discipline to support its full-year copper target.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Anglo American’s first quarter shows that copper growth is increasingly a quality-of-ore and processing-efficiency story. The strategic focus now shifts to whether Collahuasi, Los Bronces and the Teck merger can turn Anglo into a more copper-led mining company.

Lithium-Ion Battery Copper Foil Shipments Surge as Ultra-Thin Products Gain Share

Copper Foil

Lithium-ion battery copper foil shipments rose sharply in 2025 as global battery production expanded and manufacturers shifted toward thinner materials to reduce copper costs. Global shipments reached 1.302mn t, up 41.7% from 2024, according to Chinese research institute EV Tank.

Lithium-ion battery copper foil demand remains closely tied to electric vehicle and energy storage growth. Copper foil is a key current collector in lithium-ion batteries, making it essential to cell performance, energy density and manufacturing cost.

Lithium-ion battery copper foil shipments were dominated by China, which accounted for 82.9% of global deliveries in 2025. EV Tank expects global shipments to reach 2.615mn t by 2030, implying continued expansion as battery output scales.

The product mix changed quickly during the year. The share of 8μm foil declined, while 6μm remained the mainstream product and accounted for more than 70% of total shipments.

Ultra-Thin Foil Gains Momentum on Copper Cost Pressure

Ultra-thin copper foil gained share as battery producers looked for ways to reduce copper input costs. Persistently high global copper prices pushed cell manufacturers to use thinner foil while maintaining battery performance.

The combined share of 5μm and 4.5μm ultra-thin foil rose to 24% in 2025. This is a major shift for a material category that requires tighter production control, better surface quality and stronger consistency.

Thinner copper foil can help reduce battery weight and improve energy density. It also lowers the amount of copper used per cell, which becomes increasingly important when copper prices remain elevated.

EV Tank expects 5μm and thinner foil to become a key material for high-end batteries. This reflects the industry’s move toward lighter, higher-energy-density cell designs.

However, thinner foil also raises manufacturing difficulty. Producers must control pinholes, tensile strength, elongation, surface roughness and coating compatibility more precisely.

That technical barrier could separate higher-end suppliers from lower-cost producers. As battery customers shift toward thinner grades, qualification and process reliability will become more important than simple capacity.

China Leads Supply as Competition Intensifies

China’s 82.9% share of global shipments shows its dominant role in battery copper foil supply. The country has built large-scale capacity around its lithium-ion battery ecosystem, supported by domestic EV, energy storage and cell manufacturing growth.

Competition intensified in 2025 as the market recovered and producers brought earlier-built capacity on line. This created a more fluid ranking among suppliers.

Longdian Wason ranked first with a 12.2% market share. Huachuang New Material followed after capacity ramp-ups lifted output and sales.

Defu Technology and Jiayuan Technology ranked third and fourth, respectively. Seven companies in the top 10 changed positions during the year, showing how quickly capacity, customer access and product mix are reshaping the sector.

Battery makers also increased procurement from second-tier suppliers to improve supply stability. This suggests buyers are trying to diversify supplier bases rather than rely only on leading producers.

For copper markets, the trend is strategically important. Battery copper foil growth creates a direct link between copper demand and battery technology. But the move toward ultra-thin foil also means battery growth will not translate into copper demand on a simple one-to-one basis.

The sector is therefore entering a more technical phase. Volume growth remains strong, but material intensity, foil thickness, supplier qualification and copper price pressure will all shape future demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The copper foil market shows how battery growth can lift copper demand while also forcing material thrift. High copper prices are pushing battery makers toward thinner foil, making technology and process control as important as raw capacity.

Hillside Aluminium Smelter Future Hinges on South32 Eskom Power Deal

Hillside Aluminium

Hillside aluminium smelter operations beyond 2031 will depend on a new long-term power agreement between South32 and South African utility Eskom. The companies are negotiating a replacement contract for the KwaZulu-Natal smelter before its current discounted electricity supply arrangement expires.

The Hillside aluminium smelter is one of South Africa’s most important energy-intensive industrial assets. Securing competitively priced power is essential because aluminium smelting depends on stable, large-scale and affordable electricity.

South32 and Eskom have created a working group to explore ways to bring competitively priced renewable energy into South Africa’s national grid. The goal is to support Hillside’s future power needs while also benefiting Eskom’s wider customer base.

The talks come shortly after South32 moved its Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique into care and maintenance after failing to secure a new electricity supply agreement. That decision highlights the strategic risk facing smelters when power contracts expire without a commercially viable replacement.

Power Security Becomes the Main Aluminium Constraint

Electricity is the defining cost factor for primary aluminium. Smelters need continuous power, and even modest changes in tariffs can determine whether production remains competitive.

The Hillside aluminium smelter currently benefits from a discounted power contract that runs until 2031. A new agreement would secure the plant’s operating future beyond that date and reduce uncertainty for workers, suppliers and downstream customers.

South32’s experience at Mozal shows what is at stake. The Mozambican smelter was moved into care and maintenance after its electricity contract expired at the end of March and no new agreement was reached.

That outcome gives urgency to the Hillside negotiations. Without a competitive long-term power solution, South32 could face difficult decisions about one of its key southern African aluminium assets.

For Eskom, the talks also carry wider industrial policy significance. South Africa needs to preserve energy-intensive manufacturing while managing grid constraints, decarbonisation pressure and the transition toward cleaner power.

Renewable Power Could Support Low-Carbon Aluminium

The working group’s focus on renewable energy shows how aluminium supply is becoming tied to decarbonisation. Buyers increasingly want lower-carbon aluminium, especially in automotive, packaging, construction and industrial applications.

A renewable-linked power solution could improve Hillside’s long-term competitiveness. It would help South32 reduce emissions exposure while keeping the smelter connected to South Africa’s industrial base.

However, the challenge is execution. Renewable power must be competitively priced, reliable and integrated into the national grid in a way that supports continuous smelter operations.

The agreement could also set a precedent for other energy-intensive industries in South Africa. If Eskom and South32 can structure a viable low-carbon power model, it may help attract or retain industrial investment in metals, chemicals and manufacturing.

For the aluminium market, the message is clear. Future smelting capacity will depend less on ore or alumina access alone and more on long-term power security, grid reliability and carbon intensity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Hillside power talks show that aluminium competitiveness is now an energy strategy question. South32 and Eskom must prove that South Africa can keep heavy industry alive while moving toward lower-carbon electricity.

India Aluminium Wire Rod Imports Face CVD Sunset Review on Malaysian Supply

India's Trade

India aluminium wire rod imports from Malaysia are under renewed trade scrutiny after the Directorate General of Trade Remedies started a sunset review of existing countervailing duties. The review comes ahead of the current duty’s expiry on 23 September.

India aluminium wire rod imports are strategically important because wire rod is a key semi-finished aluminium product for electrical conductors, cables, industrial wire and downstream manufacturing. Domestic producers argue that subsidised Malaysian supply could continue or recur if the duty expires.

India aluminium wire rod imports from Malaysia have been subject to countervailing duties since September 2021. The original levy followed a probe launched in June 2020 into alleged government subsidies supporting Malaysian producers.

Hindalco Industries, Vedanta and Bharat Aluminium Company filed the application that triggered the review. DGTR said the applicants represent a majority of India’s domestic output of the product covered by the duty.

Domestic Producers Warn of Subsidy and Trade Diversion Risk

The review covers aluminium wire and rod in coil form with diameters of 9-13mm. These products are used across electrical, cable and industrial supply chains, making them important to India’s aluminium downstream sector.

The applicants argue that Malaysian producers continue to benefit from government support. They identified 64 subsidy programmes, including 23 from the original investigation and 41 new schemes.

The alleged support includes tax breaks, export grants, preferential financing and below-market land and power rates. If confirmed, these measures could allow Malaysian producers to offer aluminium wire rod at artificially competitive levels.

Indian producers warned that removing the duty could harm the domestic industry. Their concern is that subsidised imports would pressure local pricing, reduce utilisation and weaken investment confidence in downstream aluminium capacity.

The case also includes a wider trade-flow risk. Recent increases in US Section 232 aluminium tariffs could divert Malaysian export volumes away from the US and toward India if the CVD lapses.

This matters because aluminium trade measures in one region can quickly reshape flows elsewhere. When one market becomes harder to access, exporters often look for alternative destinations with weaker trade barriers.

Review Could Shape India’s Downstream Aluminium Protection

The period of investigation for the sunset review is July 2024-December 2025. DGTR will assess whether the duty should be extended, modified or withdrawn.

Exporters, importers, users and the Malaysian government have been invited to submit comments through DGTR’s SETU portal. Their responses will help determine whether subsidised imports remain a material risk.

The outcome will matter for India’s aluminium value chain. Domestic producers want protection from subsidised competition, while downstream users may focus on supply availability and input cost.

India has been trying to strengthen local manufacturing across metals, electrical infrastructure and industrial materials. Maintaining fair competition in aluminium wire rod supports that policy direction, especially as demand grows from power transmission, cables, construction and manufacturing.

However, trade protection also needs balance. If duties raise input costs too much, downstream processors can become less competitive. The review will need to weigh domestic producer protection against the needs of users that rely on wire rod supply.

The case shows how aluminium is becoming more exposed to trade policy. Tariffs, subsidies, countervailing duties and regional trade diversion are now central to market positioning, not secondary issues.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s CVD review shows that aluminium downstream products are becoming part of a wider trade-defence strategy. The key issue is whether India can protect domestic wire rod capacity without raising costs for cable, conductor and electrical manufacturing supply chains.

Ardagh North American Can Shipments Fall as Weather and Contract Resets Weigh

Ardagh

Ardagh North American can shipments fell in the first quarter as winter storms disrupted logistics and contract renewals reduced offtake volumes. The Luxembourg-based packaging group said regional beverage can deliveries declined by 5% from a year earlier.

Ardagh North American can shipments were affected by difficult operating conditions in January and February. Severe weather limited movement of workers, freight and customer deliveries, forcing the company to run shorter production campaigns and serve customers more selectively.

Ardagh North American can shipments are expected to improve later in the year. The company said volumes will be backloaded to the second half as supply-chain constraints ease and aluminum availability improves.

The result highlights a transition year for North American metal packaging. Ardagh expects a small full-year volume decline in 2026 before returning to shipment growth in 2027, when it aims to secure more volume under long-term supply agreements.

Weather Disruption and Contract Renewals Hit First-Quarter Volumes

Winter storms created a visible operational drag across Ardagh’s can and lid businesses. The company estimated that weather-related disruption removed 1-2 percentage points of growth during the quarter.

The disruption affected more than plant operations. It also affected workers reaching facilities, customers receiving products and trucks moving through road networks.

This created a more fragmented production pattern. Instead of running longer and more efficient production campaigns, Ardagh had to operate shorter runs and supply customers on a more as-needed basis.

Contract renewals also reduced first-quarter volumes. Lower offtake commitments under renegotiated agreements weighed on shipments and contributed to the company’s view that 2026 will be a transition year.

However, Ardagh still expects to meet its contractual obligations for the year. That outlook depends partly on better aluminum supply entering the North American market.

New Can Sheet Supply Could Ease Packaging Constraints

Ardagh expects additional aluminum availability to support the North American packaging chain later this year. More overseas aluminum is entering the region, easing some availability constraints.

Domestic supply is also improving. Steel Dynamics’ aluminum rolling mill in Columbus, Mississippi, is ramping up, while Novelis’ new Bay Minette, Alabama, plant is expected to add more beverage can sheet supply.

This matters because beverage can production depends heavily on reliable can sheet and lid stock. Any disruption in rolling capacity, coating, logistics or raw aluminum availability can quickly affect packaging output.

For can makers, the expanding domestic can sheet base should improve supply security. It could also reduce exposure to imported material and support more stable long-term contracting.

For aluminum rollers, the packaging market remains strategically important. Beverage cans offer large-volume demand, recycling advantages and recurring consumption tied to food and beverage markets.

Ardagh’s weaker first-quarter shipments therefore do not signal a structural collapse in can demand. They reflect a mix of weather disruption, contract resets and temporary supply-chain adjustment.

The second half will be more important. If new can sheet supply ramps smoothly and customer volumes recover, Ardagh could stabilise shipments before returning to growth in 2027.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ardagh’s quarter shows that aluminum packaging is still highly sensitive to logistics, weather and can sheet availability. The ramp-up of new US rolling capacity could become a major stabilising factor for North American beverage can supply.