Trump Accuses China of Violating Preliminary Trade Deal

U.S, China

Trump Accuses China of Violating Preliminary Trade Deal

US President Donald Trump has accused China of breaching a preliminary trade agreement reached in Geneva earlier this month. During a White House press briefing, Trump claimed that Beijing "violated a big part of the agreement," though he provided no specifics. US trade officials and aides also offered no documentation or clarification, raising uncertainty over the deal’s durability.

The Geneva pact aimed to temporarily pause 125–145% tariffs, allowing limited breathing room for both sides until 10 August. However, exemptions remain narrow. For instance, China’s tariffs on US crude oil and LNG are still too high to restore meaningful trade flows. On the other hand, US propane exports could rebound due to lower effective tariffs and exemptions for key petrochemical feedstocks.

New Tariff Measures and Export Restrictions Stir Controversy

The trade dispute has evolved beyond traditional tariffs. The US Department of Commerce recently required NGL exporters to apply for export licenses for ethane and butane bound for China. The department cited concerns over dual-use military applications. Meanwhile, the Trump administration announced new fees of $50/net ton on Chinese ship operators and $18/net ton on Chinese-built ships, effective this fall.

Adding further strain, China lifted some tech export restrictions, particularly for cloud services, while maintaining limits on rare earth exports to the US. These minerals are crucial for defense and electronics, making the move highly strategic.

Legal Challenges Undermine Tariff Legitimacy

A major legal complication emerged when the US Court of International Trade ruled that Trump’s tariffs under the 1978 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful. The court concluded the law does not grant unlimited presidential authority over tariffs. Although a federal appeals court has stayed the ruling, the incident casts doubt on Trump’s long-term tariff strategy.

Trump criticized the idea of seeking Congressional approval for tariffs, stating it would involve "hundreds of people" and months of delay. Despite legal headwinds, Trump continues to favor unilateral action and hinted at resolving disputes directly with President Xi Jinping in the near future.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Trump’s renewed hardline stance on China—just weeks after a ceasefire—highlights the fragile nature of trade diplomacy. While tariffs offer political leverage, legal and structural challenges are mounting. Industrial stakeholders must prepare for an environment where regulatory unpredictability, rather than open markets, defines global trade norms.

Trump Targets Foreign Steel with 50% Import Tariff

Trump Tariff

Trump Targets Foreign Steel with 50% Import Tariff

US President Donald Trump has announced a significant escalation in trade protectionism by doubling Section 232 tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50%. The statement was made at a rally held at US Steel’s Mon Valley Works in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. While the specific date and mechanism for implementation remain unclear, the move signals stronger trade defense ahead of the election season.

The 50% tariff aims to shield domestic producers from what Trump described as unfair foreign competition. The policy will particularly affect exporters from China, South Korea, Turkey, and Brazil, who already face quotas and duties under Section 232.

Nippon Steel’s $14 Billion Investment Secures US Steel’s Future

In addition to the tariff hike, Trump confirmed that Nippon Steel will move forward with a $14 billion investment in US Steel. While not framed as a full acquisition, Trump emphasized that US Steel will retain operational control and remain headquartered in Pittsburgh. He claimed the investment would be the largest in Pennsylvania’s history and a milestone for the US steel industry.

According to Trump, the plan includes $2.2 billion to modernize the Mon Valley mill and $7 billion to revamp steel mills and ore mines in Indiana, Minnesota, Alabama, and Arkansas. The investment is expected to create 100,000 jobs over the next 14 months and secure blast furnace operations for at least a decade.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The move to double tariffs, while politically potent, reflects a broader trend of industrial reshoring and national resource security. The Nippon investment adds long-term operational value, but short-term market volatility is inevitable. Policymakers and steel-consuming sectors must now prepare for elevated costs and complex supply chain recalibrations.

Former President Trump Evacuated Following Shooting Incident During Rally; Assailant Deceased

On July 13th, during a campaign rally at the Butler Farm Show grounds in Pennsylvania, former U.S. President Donald Trump was rushed off stage after gunshots were fired nearby. Despite sustaining a minor injury to his right ear, Trump is reportedly in stable condition. The assailant, whose identity has not been disclosed, was confirmed dead at the scene.

At around 6:10 PM, as Trump was delivering his speech, gunfire was heard, prompting his security team to swiftly evacuate him. Trump briefly took cover beneath the podium before being escorted off stage. Witnesses reported seeing Trump raise a fist to his supporters as he was led away, with television footage showing blood near his ear.

The Washington Post confirmed that a bullet had grazed Trump's ear, causing a minor injury. Trump's campaign team later assured the public that he was in good health and undergoing examination at a local medical facility​.

The Secret Service released a statement confirming that protective measures were implemented immediately, ensuring Trump's safety. An investigation into the incident is currently underway, and further information will be disclosed as it becomes available​.

WTI Prices Surge Following Trump’s Surprise Tariff Pause

WTI

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices saw a significant rebound after President Donald Trump unexpectedly announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs. This move sent the US light sweet crude benchmark soaring by $5 per barrel within just an hour. As of midday Wednesday, May Nymex WTI was trading at approximately $62.80 per barrel, bouncing back from a four-year low earlier that day.

Trump’s Tariff Pause and Market Reactions

WTI crude prices initially dropped to $55.12 per barrel, marking a 7% decline from Tuesday’s close. This was the lowest price for WTI since February 2021. However, following Trump’s tariff announcement, WTI regained some of its losses, jumping nearly 5% by midday. Despite this recovery, WTI remains about $10 per barrel lower than on April 2, when Trump first unveiled sweeping tariffs on multiple countries.

The pause on tariffs also had a significant impact on US equity markets. Major stock indices, including the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq, all surged by 8-11% following Trump’s announcement. The broader economic concerns stemming from the original tariffs, which had fueled fears of a stagnating US economy, were temporarily alleviated by the tariff suspension.

Impact on Global Tariffs and China's Role

Trump’s tariff action included a 10% baseline tariff on imports from nearly all US trading partners, which took effect on April 5. However, the most significant change was the announcement that tariffs on Chinese imports would be raised to 125%, effective immediately. Trump cited China’s “lack of respect” for global markets as the driving force behind this substantial tariff increase.

The unexpected tariff pause and the escalated pressure on China sent shockwaves through global markets. While the 90-day break on tariffs provides some relief to US trading partners, it is unclear what the long-term impact will be on the global economy, particularly as the trade tensions with China continue to escalate.

Conclusion: A Temporary Relief for Oil Markets

The temporary pause in US tariffs has provided a much-needed relief for WTI prices, which had been in a downward spiral earlier this week. However, the ongoing tension with China and the uncertainty surrounding global trade remain significant factors in determining the future direction of oil prices. As the 90-day pause progresses, market participants will continue to monitor both tariff developments and economic indicators to gauge the stability of global oil markets.

Trump Hints at Scaling Back US EV Targets

In a striking address at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, US presidential candidate Donald Trump vowed to roll back the country's electric vehicle (EV) targets on his first day in office. "I will end the electric vehicle mandate on day one," Trump declared, "thereby saving the US auto industry from complete obliteration, which is happening right now."

While the US does not have an official EV mandate, it appears Trump was referencing the sales targets set by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Last April, the EPA proposed measures to combat pollution from diesel and petrol-powered vehicles, aiming for a 60% market share for light-duty battery EV (BEV) sales by 2030, rising to 67% by 2032.

However, in March, the EPA revised its market share forecast for BEV sales to 56% from 67% by 2032, with plug-in hybrid EVs filling the projected sales gap. Trump also voiced concerns about the growing presence of Chinese EV manufacturers. He pointed out that the US EPA's targets have faced resistance from individual states, which can impose their own conflicting targets.

"Right now, as we speak, large factories are being built across the border in Mexico … they are being built by China to make cars and sell them in our country," Trump added, highlighting the threat posed by Chinese EV makers establishing factories abroad. "We're going to put a 100% tariff on every single [Chinese] car that comes across the line, and you're not going to be able to sell them," Trump stated on March 16.

The Biden administration recently announced tariff increases up to 102.5% on Chinese-made EVs, up from the 27.5% duties set by the Trump administration.

China's largest EV maker, BYD, has announced investments in EV production in Hungary, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Morocco, India, Turkey, Vietnam, and Cambodia, with a combined production capacity of over 1 million EVs per year.

Trump's Abrupt Tariff Decision: Pausing Global Levies While Increasing China's Tariffs

China Tariff

In a surprising shift, President Donald Trump announced that he would pause the punitive tariffs on key US trading partners, which were set to begin today. However, he simultaneously raised tariffs on Chinese imports to an extraordinary 125%. This move marks a significant reversal from earlier statements, as Trump justified the pause with the recent volatility in financial markets, particularly in the stock and bond markets.

Pausing Global Tariffs but Targeting China

Trump’s decision, announced via social media, paused reciprocal tariffs on nearly every country except China. These tariffs, which had ranged from 17% on countries like the Philippines and Israel to 49% on Cambodia, were set to begin today. The pause will last for 90 days, offering a temporary respite to US trading partners.

However, the increased tariffs on Chinese imports stand in stark contrast. According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the tariff rate on China will rise to an unprecedented 125%. This escalation follows ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, with China repeatedly increasing its trade actions against the US.

The EU, which would have faced a 20% tariff starting today, has already prepared retaliatory measures. The European Union has also proposed countermeasures for the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports imposed earlier by the US.

Flexibility in Tariff Policy and Trade Negotiations

In a shift from earlier policy, President Trump indicated a willingness to consider exemptions for certain US importers who may be disproportionately affected by the tariffs. This move contrasts with previous statements where the administration had insisted on a blanket approach. Energy commodities and critical minerals were exempt from both the baseline 10% tariff and the higher reciprocal tariffs.

Furthermore, Bessent suggested that trade discussions may also involve non-trade issues, with the US considering a major LNG project in Alaska that could attract interest from South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. These potential deals could factor into negotiations aimed at reducing the US trade deficit with these countries.

China’s Response and Global Impact

China, predictably, responded to the new tariffs with its own retaliatory measures. As of April 10, China will increase import tariffs on US goods by 50 percentage points, reaching a total of 84%. This escalation underscores the growing trade conflict between the two largest economies in the world.

The UK and Canada have also indicated potential countermeasures. The UK, which remains subject to a 10% tariff, has included refined oil products from the US in a list of goods that could be targeted. Mexico and Canada, however, were excluded from the latest round of tariffs, further highlighting the complex nature of US trade policies.

Uncertainty Surrounds Tariff Strategy

The sudden reversal in tariff policy caught many in the administration by surprise. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who had been testifying before the House Ways and Means Committee, was blindsided by the announcement. This left many questioning the coherence and strategy behind Trump’s tariff decisions.

Representative Steven Horsford of Nevada remarked that there appeared to be no clear strategy, as evidenced by Greer’s reaction. This further compounded the sense of unpredictability surrounding US trade policy.

Conclusion: A Shifting Trade Landscape

President Trump's abrupt changes to tariff policies, particularly the increase in tariffs on China, signal that the US is deepening its trade conflict with the country. While the temporary pause on global tariffs provides some relief to US allies, the continued escalation with China may have long-lasting effects on global trade dynamics. As negotiations unfold, businesses worldwide will be watching closely to understand the full impact of these decisions.

Panama Rejects Trump’s Demand for Free US Canal Access

Panama president, Jose Raul Mulino

Tensions Rise Over Control of Strategic Trade Routes

Panama's president, Jose Raul Mulino, firmly rejected US president Donald Trump's demand for free US military and commercial access through the Panama Canal. Trump, during an address on 26 April, asserted that the US deserves free passage, citing America's historic support in the canal’s construction.

However, Mulino clarified that the Panama Canal Authority (ACP), an autonomous entity, solely governs transit operations and fees. “The neutrality treaty and the organic law of the Panama Canal regulate all ship transits,” he stated. Mulino emphasized that no alternative agreement exists that would permit such free access.

The US and Panama jointly managed the canal until it was officially handed over to Panama in 1999. Since then, Panama has independently operated the canal under international law.

Trump's Renewed Focus on Canal Control

Trump’s recent remarks align with his broader agenda of challenging Panama's ownership of the strategic waterway. He reiterated claims that China holds undue influence over the canal's operations, an accusation he made both before and after assuming office in January.

Earlier this month, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced Washington’s pursuit of an agreement for increased warship access through the canal. Currently, US shipping lines account for 74% of the cargo volume passing through the canal, followed by Chinese lines at 21%, according to the ACP.

Moreover, Trump declared that the US is “reclaiming” the canal following BlackRock's announcement of plans to purchase two ports flanking the canal from Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison. Yet, Mulino denounced Trump’s claim as entirely false, defending Panama’s sovereignty and national dignity.

Rising Geopolitical Tensions

Meanwhile, Beijing expressed discontent over CK Hutchison’s intended sale, criticizing the move as a "betrayal of Chinese interests." China’s government has confirmed it is closely monitoring the situation, signaling potential diplomatic friction.

The battle over the Panama Canal symbolizes broader tensions in global trade, sovereignty, and geopolitical influence, with the US, Panama, and China all holding strong, conflicting interests.

US Strikes Escalate Middle East Tensions, Impacting Global Supply Chains

President Donald Trump

The United States has dramatically escalated the conflict in the Middle East. US forces conducted airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities. President Donald Trump confirmed these strikes on Saturday evening.

Unprecedented Strikes on Key Iranian Nuclear Sites

The US action marks a significant turning point. US bombers targeted the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites. Fordow is a heavily fortified underground facility. Natanz and Isfahan are also critical to Iran's nuclear program. These facilities have faced Israeli strikes since June 13. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had warned about potential nuclear safety hazards. It cautioned against targeting Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant. Washington-based military experts believe only the US Air Force possesses the munitions to destroy Fordow effectively. This direct US involvement deeply impacts global supply chains.

Geopolitical Ramifications for Commodities and Shipping

The US involvement in the Israel-Iran war is a watershed moment. President Trump previously criticized US military adventures. However, he now claims eliminating Iran's nuclear program justifies US involvement. The markets are closely watching Tehran's reaction. Iran's 2.5 million b/d of crude, condensate, and products exports are immediately at stake. These exports primarily head to China. Furthermore, oil markets fear contagion. Retaliatory attacks could jeopardize shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This choke point is vulnerable for global oil flow. Around 17 million b/d, or a quarter of seaborne oil trade, passes through it.

Rising geopolitical tensions frequently cause commodity prices to surge. Gold prices have already increased significantly. Silver and platinum have also seen gains. Supply chain disruptions are a major concern. The Middle East conflict poses risks for various industrial sectors. This includes critical minerals, vital for many industries. Therefore, instability in this region affects global trade.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The direct US involvement in strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities introduces new levels of uncertainty for global industrial supply chains. Beyond the immediate impact on oil, the long-term implications for critical mineral flows and broader logistics cannot be overstated. Businesses must now brace for potential disruptions and reassess their sourcing strategies.

Tariff Shock Forces IMF to Cut Global Growth Forecast

IMF

Trump’s Tariffs Trigger Global Economic Revisions, Says IMF

Focus Keyphrase: IMF global growth forecast 2025 tariffs

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly lowered its 2025–2026 global growth outlook following steep new tariffs introduced by former President Donald Trump. The revised World Economic Outlook, released this week, shows a projected global GDP growth of just 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, down from 3.3% per year forecast earlier this year.

The revision stems from Trump’s across-the-board tariff policies, which include 10% on most imports, 25% on steel and aluminum, and a record 145% on Chinese imports. These levels, the IMF noted, mark the highest effective US tariff rates in over a century.

🇺🇸 North America Faces Sharp Downturn

The IMF warns that the United States, Canada, and Mexico will suffer the most due to both tariffs and retaliatory trade measures. The US growth forecast dropped from 2.7% to 1.8% for 2025, while Mexico is now projected to shrink by 0.3% instead of growing, and Canada’s growth falls to 1.4%.

The IMF cited heightened policy uncertainty and weakened demand as key factors eroding economic confidence and investment. Meanwhile, President Trump continues to defend the tariffs, claiming they boost American capitalism and would incentivize onshore manufacturing.

Markets, however, responded negatively. US stock indices fell over 2%, and fears of a broader economic slowdown intensified following Trump’s renewed attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates.

China and Eurozone Not Immune

The IMF also reduced its outlook for China, predicting a decline to 4.0% annual growth in 2025–2026, down from the previous forecast of 4.6%. The euro area will also see slower expansion at 0.8% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.

Although Trump asserts tariffs are bringing “billions” into the US economy, the IMF argues that the "unpredictability of the trade environment" is undermining global recovery efforts and long-term economic planning.

US Pressures Mexico for Early Renegotiation of USMCA: A Strategic Move for the Future

US, Mexico

The Trump administration is pushing for an early renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), potentially as soon as this year. This could offer an opportunity to strengthen the commercial relationship between the three countries. According to Kennet Smith, a partner at consultancy Agon, this move is crucial for Mexico, which faces the challenge of navigating tariff tensions while preparing for future renegotiations. The immediate focus on the USMCA renegotiation could also bring long-term benefits to Mexico if handled strategically.

Tariff Concerns and Opportunities for Mexico

The recent series of tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, particularly on April 2 during what he referred to as "Liberation Day," had an interesting effect on the Mexican economy. The peso initially reacted positively, as Mexico was largely shielded from the new tariffs due to the protections within the USMCA.

Mexico's President, Claudia Sheinbaum, chose a strategy of not retaliating against Trump's tariffs. Instead, her administration has focused on working with the US on critical issues such as immigration, drug trafficking, and security. This approach has helped Mexico avoid a full-fledged tariff war. However, Smith notes that Sheinbaum’s administration needs to prepare for potential changes to the USMCA, such as coordinated action against imports from China, which could lead to new tariffs on Chinese imports entering Mexico.

Mexico's Strategy Moving Forward

Despite the challenges, Mexico has options to gain leverage during the renegotiation process. Smith suggests that Mexico could initiate a consultation process under the USMCA rules to address potential violations, particularly related to Trump's tariffs on steel, aluminum, and auto parts. Under the agreement, tariffs on these items have been increased from 2.5% to 25%, which Smith views as a violation that could be contested in the renegotiation talks.

Furthermore, Mexico could stand to benefit from the evolving tariff war. If the dispute continues, Mexico might be able to secure exemptions from these tariffs under a renegotiated USMCA, encouraging foreign companies to shift their manufacturing operations to Mexico. This could lead to a revival of nearshoring trends, which would bolster Mexico’s manufacturing sector.

Domestic Challenges Facing Mexico

While international opportunities may arise from the renegotiation of the USMCA, Mexico must also address its domestic issues. Valeria Moy, director of IMCO, highlighted that Mexico's attractiveness as an investment destination has been undermined by recent domestic reforms. These include changes to the energy sector, the removal of independent regulators, and the restructuring of the judicial power. Such actions have created uncertainty in Mexico’s business environment, which could deter foreign investments and undermine efforts to attract manufacturers from abroad.

Conclusion

The Trump administration's pressure for early USMCA renegotiation presents both challenges and opportunities for Mexico. While Mexico has managed to avoid the worst effects of the tariff war, it must remain vigilant in securing its interests during renegotiation talks. At the same time, Mexico must address internal reforms to ensure it remains a competitive and attractive destination for international investment.

Trump Signals Hope for U.S.-China Trade Deal Amid Escalating Tariff War

Trump trade China

Markets react to mixed messages as tariff tensions deepen between the world’s largest economies

U.S. President Donald Trump suggested a potential breakthrough in trade talks with China, reigniting global interest in a possible resolution.

At a White House press briefing, Trump stated that negotiations were "going very well" regarding a U.S.-China trade deal. He added that 18 countries have approached the U.S. to initiate bilateral trade agreements, which he claims could pave the way for a larger framework with China.

However, the optimism was short-lived. Markets remain volatile due to a lack of concrete progress. Since early April, Trump’s announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners has rattled investors. The administration later paused some tariffs on 9 April after widespread market backlash, offering to negotiate with multiple countries.

Still, no formal trade agreements have been signed. The White House cited ongoing talks with India, describing them as “a roadmap” for future negotiations. Yet, no timeline or deliverables have been confirmed.

U.S.-China Trade Talks Face Major Roadblocks

Despite optimistic language, trade tensions with China are intensifying. The U.S. currently imposes a 145% tariff on all Chinese imports. In response, China has applied a 125% counter-tariff, effectively halting commodity trade between the two nations.

The conflict extends beyond tariffs. China has begun targeting critical U.S. industries, including drone and defense manufacturing. The U.S. has retaliated with new sanctions, including planned port fees for Chinese-owned ships.

Experts suggest that both countries view the dispute through a larger strategic lens. According to Sinocism podcast host Bill Bishop, Beijing sees U.S. actions as attempts to contain China's growth—not just settle trade imbalances.

This strategic mistrust complicates the possibility of resolution. Bishop believes China is prepared for prolonged tensions and may be betting on U.S. domestic political instability to gain leverage.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut growth forecasts for both the U.S. and China, citing long-term economic damage from sustained tariffs.

Impact on Metals Market and Supply Chains

The deepening U.S.-China rift could heavily impact metal supply chains, particularly for rare earths, aluminum, and drone-related alloys. With tariffs choking cross-border flows, U.S. firms reliant on Chinese materials may face higher costs and extended lead times.

As of now, SuperMetalPrice analysts are monitoring copper, rare earths, and strategic alloys, which remain vulnerable to supply disruptions from escalating trade restrictions.

Canada and Ontario to Fund Frontier Lithium's Conversion Plant in Thunder Bay

Frontier Lithium's

New facility to boost domestic lithium salt output and shield Ontario’s critical mineral sector from U.S. trade pressures.

Frontier Lithium, a Canadian pre-production mining firm, announced that both the Ontario provincial government and the Government of Canada plan to financially support its upcoming lithium conversion facility in Thunder Bay.

While the exact investment amount has not been disclosed, the company said the combined support will cover a “significant portion” of capital expenditures required for the project. Once completed, the facility will produce approximately 20,000 metric tonnes per year of lithium salts derived from Frontier’s PAK lithium project.

Lithium Strategy Targets U.S. Tariffs with Domestic Processing

The announcement comes amid renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada. This week, U.S. President Donald Trump reimposed tariffs on Canadian exports, placing pressure on Canada's critical minerals sector.

Vic Fedeli, Ontario’s Minister of Economic Development, stated that processing lithium at home is vital to counteract U.S. tariffs. “The frontline of our battle against Donald Trump’s tariffs starts in northern Ontario,” Fedeli emphasized, citing the province’s abundant supply of critical minerals as a key advantage.

Frontier’s Thunder Bay Project Supports North American Battery Supply Chain

The Thunder Bay facility is part of Canada’s broader strategy to strengthen domestic battery materials production and reduce reliance on foreign processing hubs. With this support, Frontier Lithium will advance its role in the North American EV and energy storage supply chain.

Although Frontier has not revealed total project costs, the backing from both levels of government positions the company to secure financing and accelerate construction timelines.

Blanket US Aluminium Tariffs to Have Limited Impact on European Trade Flows

US Aluminium

Trump's 25% Tariff on All Aluminium Imports Will Affect US Consumers, Not European Markets

US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a blanket 25% tariff on all aluminium imports is expected to have minimal impact on European trade flows. This contrasts with earlier plans to impose tariffs specifically on imports from Canada and Mexico. According to market participants, the new approach is unlikely to disrupt European markets as much as the previous strategy might have.

Impact of Blanket Tariffs on Aluminium Trade

Trump’s new tariffs, which will apply to all aluminium imports, are set to be announced soon. This blanket tariff on steel and aluminium is expected to affect all exporting countries without distinguishing between suppliers. Canada, the UAE, and Argentina were the leading exporters of unwrought aluminium to the US last year, but the tariffs will now apply to everyone, making it difficult for countries like Canada to redirect excess supplies to Europe as initially anticipated.

Under the previous plan, markets predicted a shift in trade flows, with more Canadian aluminium potentially moving to Europe. This was expected to reduce European premiums due to an increase in supply, as demand in Europe remained weak. However, under the new tariff strategy, this shift is likely to be less pronounced. The global competitiveness of Canadian aluminium is diminished when tariffs apply universally, making aluminium from other regions, such as the Middle East and South America, less attractive in the US market.

Consequences for US Consumers and Domestic Production

The main consequence of these blanket tariffs will be higher costs for US consumers. While the tariffs could potentially drive up domestic production, increasing capacity will take years. In the meantime, US buyers will face higher prices for aluminium imports, particularly from Canada, as shipping times from these suppliers are shorter than those from more distant countries.

Market analysts believe that, despite the tariffs, US consumers will continue to import from Canada because of these logistical advantages. The blanket tariff strategy is unlikely to redirect a significant volume of Canadian aluminium to Europe, meaning the overall impact on European aluminium flows will be minimal.

Conclusion: A Shift in Costs, Not Trade Flows

In conclusion, Trump’s blanket tariffs on aluminium imports are expected to result in higher costs for US consumers but will have limited consequences for European trade flows. The market will likely experience some adjustments, but European aluminium premiums are not expected to drop significantly as a result of these changes.

US Government Takes 10pc Stake in Intel Amid Chip Strategy

Intel

Washington Pushes Semiconductor Independence

US president Donald Trump confirmed that the government acquired a 10pc stake in Intel, worth about $11bn. He emphasized that the US “paid nothing” for the shares. The move comes alongside the administration’s broader push to expand domestic semiconductor production.

Trump previously announced a 100pc tariff on all chip and semiconductor imports. However, companies currently building or committed to building plants in the US will be exempt from the charge. This strategy reflects efforts to strengthen US energy and technology security while reducing dependence on foreign chip supply.

Government Expands Strategic Holdings in Key Sectors

The Intel stake is not the first direct government involvement in industry under Trump. The administration took a “golden share” during Nippon Steel’s acquisition of US Steel. In another case, the Department of Defense invested $400mn in rare earth producer MP Materials, securing a 15pc stake.

Such actions demonstrate a pattern of strategic intervention in critical supply chains. By aligning government investment with national security priorities, Washington signals that semiconductors now rank alongside steel and rare earths as essential for long-term resilience.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The US government’s stake in Intel underscores the growing overlap between industrial strategy and national security. As tariffs reshape global trade, semiconductors remain central to technological leadership and geopolitical competition.

Copper Exempted from US Tariffs Amid Ongoing Supply Chain Probe

Copper Tariff

President Trump Exempts Copper as Section 232 Investigations Continue

In a significant development, copper and its derivatives were spared from additional tariffs in President Donald Trump's recent sweeping tariff announcements. The exemption comes amid a continued Section 232 investigation into the national security implications of the US's copper supply chain, which could influence future trade policies.

Ongoing Section 232 Investigations and Implications for Copper

President Trump instituted a 10% baseline tariff on all foreign imports, with additional tariffs imposed on some countries, including a 54% tariff on China. However, copper and lumber were exempted from these additional duties as the Secretary of Commerce investigates the supply chain of these materials. The investigation, which began on February 25, could take up to nine months to complete. The Department of Commerce is expected to release recommendations for new policies, which could include tariffs depending on the findings.

Currently, copper derivatives such as cathodes and wire are taxed at rates between 1% and 3%. Despite the tariff relief, the investigation’s findings could lead to future changes in tariff rates for copper and other critical materials.

Domestic Copper Production Challenges and Policy Recommendations

The US imported a total of 1.7 million metric tonnes (t) of copper and its derivatives in 2024, with copper cathodes accounting for the majority of these imports at 905,300t. The majority of copper imports came from free trade partners like Chile, Canada, Peru, and Mexico.

The US Chamber of Commerce responded to the ongoing investigation by recommending several actions to boost domestic copper production. These include tax credit incentives for domestic copper production, enhanced collaboration with allies and free trade partners, and reforming the permitting process for mining. Despite having significant copper reserves, the US faces a major challenge with a lack of domestic smelting infrastructure, with only two active copper smelters currently operating in the country.

China Warns of Retaliation as Trump Threatens 50% Tariff Hike

China Tariff

Tensions Escalate Over US-China Trade as April 9 Tariff Deadline Looms

China has pledged swift retaliation if the United States follows through with President Donald Trump’s latest 50% tariff threat. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MoC) made the announcement on April 8, 2025, signaling a firm stance against what it called “unreasonable escalation” of trade restrictions.

The warning follows Trump’s April 7 post, where he declared that if China did not retract its 34% retaliatory tariffs, the US would implement additional duties. These would come on top of the already scheduled tariff increase from 34% to 54%, set to begin on April 9. If fully applied, US tariffs on Chinese goods could spike to 104%.

Retaliation Could Trigger 100% Tariffs on Key US Exports

China stated it “will accompany it to the end,” implying no backing down before the deadline. Historically, Beijing has responded with mirrored tariffs, suggesting a likely 50% retaliatory hike across a broad range of US imports.

If implemented, China’s tariffs would raise total duties on some American goods to 84% or more. Commodities such as crude oil, coal, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and various agricultural products—already targeted in previous rounds—would be hit hardest. This tit-for-tat dynamic threatens to push overall tariffs near or above 100%, severely affecting bilateral trade.

Market Uncertainty Grows as Executive Action Remains Pending

Despite the public announcement, the White House has not issued an executive order to formalize the additional 50% tariffs. Without clarity on enforcement, businesses and markets face growing uncertainty.

Meanwhile, both Washington and Beijing claim to support dialogue. However, current rhetoric indicates that negotiations are off the table—at least for now. The trade standoff, if not resolved quickly, could ripple across global supply chains and drive commodity price volatility.

Trump Signs Executive Order to Accelerate Deep Sea Mining for Critical Minerals

Trump, Critical Minerals

New Policy Aims to Boost U.S. Access to Nickel, Cobalt, and Manganese

U.S. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to fast-track seabed exploration and mining for critical minerals. The order challenges the authority of the United Nations' International Seabed Authority (ISA) over international waters.

The directive instructs the Secretary of Commerce to speed up exploration and commercial recovery permits under the Deep Seabed Hard Minerals Resources Act (DSHMR). Currently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued four exploration licenses but no commercial permits.

The executive order also mandates mapping potential mineral reserves along the seabed.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) highlighted areas rich in nickel, cobalt, and manganese in a recent report.

Industry Response and International Tensions Grow

Canada-based The Metals Company confirmed plans to apply for a commercial deep-sea mining license in the Pacific in 2025. However, tensions are rising as China's Foreign Ministry condemned the U.S. move, defending the ISA's jurisdiction.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), signed in 1994, governs deep sea mining regulations. Yet, commercial regulations remain pending, leaving U.S.-issued permits potentially unrecognized by UNCLOS member states.

Environmental concerns persist.

Fauna and Flora, an environmental non-profit, warned that deep-sea mining could release stored marine carbon, offsetting climate gains.

As the demand for battery minerals intensifies, deep-sea mining's legal and environmental battles are expected to escalate.

Canadians Head to Polls as Liberals Seek Fourth Term

Canadians Voting

Energy and Trade Dominate Key Election Issues

Canadians are voting today in a pivotal general election. The Liberal party, led by Mark Carney, is aiming to secure its fourth consecutive term. A victory would allow the Liberals to form a majority government, enabling them to pass legislation without needing support from other parties.

According to Canada338, the Liberals lead polling at 43%, while the Conservatives follow closely at 39%. Meanwhile, the New Democratic Party (NDP) stands at 8%, Bloc Québécois at 6%, and the Green Party at 2%. Although the Liberals have been in power since 2015, they have only governed with a minority since 2019.

Economic issues, such as inflation, housing, and trade, are at the forefront for voters. Both the Liberals and Conservatives have pledged to diversify trade and boost energy production to reduce reliance on the US market.

Energy Policy Becomes Central to the Campaign

Canada is the fourth-largest oil producer globally, with daily output exceeding 5.7 million barrels. It is also the fifth-largest producer of natural gas at 18 billion cubic feet per day, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP).

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre criticizes Liberal policies for weakening Canada's economic performance within the G7. He vows to revitalize the country’s oil and gas sector and asserts that a strong energy industry is vital for Canadian sovereignty.

Conversely, Liberal leader Mark Carney highlights the need to maintain current environmental regulations while turning Canada into an “energy superpower.” Carney’s campaign focuses heavily on countering the threats posed by US president Donald Trump, emphasizing external threats over internal policy disputes.

Trump’s verbal and economic attacks on Canada have significantly influenced Canadian sentiment, leading politicians to reassess trade strategies.

Election Results to Shape Canada’s Future

Recent polls indicate that the Liberals have successfully rebounded from a 26-point deficit earlier this year. A fresh face in leadership and strong messaging against Trump have rejuvenated the party’s prospects.

Despite winning the popular vote in 2019 and 2021, the Conservatives fell short of securing the most seats. Based on current polling trends, they would need a significant lead to overcome the Liberals' seat advantage.

Voting concludes at 10 PM ET on Canada's west coast, with preliminary results expected soon after.

China Files WTO Case Against US Tariffs

Beijing Challenges US 10% Tariffs on Chinese Goods, Accusing Washington of Trade Protectionism

On February 5, 2025, China filed a case with the World Trade Organization (WTO) challenging the United States' additional 10% tariffs on all Chinese goods. This move follows the implementation of the tariffs on February 4, 2025, as announced by the US government under President Donald Trump’s administration. The case was officially circulated to WTO members on the same day, as confirmed by the WTO.

A Growing Trade Dispute: China’s Strong Response to US Tariffs

The US’s blanket 10% tariffs on Chinese imports add to the previous tariffs imposed during both Trump’s and former President Joe Biden’s terms. This action has intensified the trade tension between the two global powers, with China strongly criticizing the move. China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a statement describing the tariffs as a serious violation of WTO rules and an example of “unilateralism and trade protectionism.” It further claimed that these tariffs undermine the multilateral trading system and disrupt the stability of global industrial and supply chains.

In retaliation, China imposed its own set of tariffs on a range of US goods, including crude oil, coal, liquefied natural gas (LNG), thermal and coking coal, as well as large displacement vehicles and pick-up trucks. Additionally, China has expanded its export controls to include more critical minerals, further escalating the trade conflict.

Geopolitical Tensions and the WTO's Role

This WTO case is part of the broader geopolitical tensions between China and the Western world, which have been steadily increasing in recent years. While the WTO offers a platform for dispute resolution, some industry participants are uncertain about the case’s potential success, especially given Trump’s past threats to withdraw from the WTO, as well as his withdrawal from other international agreements such as the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization (WHO).

In August 2024, China also filed a case against the European Union (EU) for imposing provisional anti-subsidy duties on Chinese battery electric vehicles (BEVs), highlighting the growing rift in international trade dynamics.

Ex-China Rare Earth Demand to Stay Weak Amid Economic Headwinds and EV Industry Struggles

China Rare Earth

Global demand for rare earth elements (REEs) outside of China is expected to remain subdued in the coming months, as macroeconomic challenges and sluggish industrial activity continue to weigh on end-user sectors. The rare earth market, which plays a crucial role in electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy, and high-tech manufacturing, has seen only modest demand growth in 2024, with contract negotiations for 2025 suggesting little change ahead.

Muted Demand Growth for Rare Earths in 2025

Market sources across the Atlantic region and Japan report that rare earth consumption has remained steady but unimpressive, with purchasing volumes under discussion for 2025 aligning closely with 2024 levels. Industries that rely on rare earths—including catalysts, phosphors, ceramics, and glassmaking—are waiting for an industrial revival to drive greater demand.

While the automotive magnetics sector has shown signs of recovery, the broader ex-China automotive industry continues to struggle. The weak performance of EV manufacturers outside of China has been a key factor limiting rare earth demand, particularly for neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (Pr), and dysprosium (Dy), which are essential in permanent magnets used in EV motors.

"We don’t see much change in demand next year," said a market participant. "We are expecting similar volumes under supply contracts for most industries and are actively seeking new applications for rare earth materials to offset the weak market conditions."

Inventory Caution Amid Geopolitical and Shipping Disruptions

Another major concern heading into 2025 is inventory management, as companies work to maintain stable supply chains while avoiding overstocking. With high interest rates and tight margins, international trading firms remain cautious about restocking and taking on new commitments.

"We are still being careful about restocking," said a trader. "It looks like rare earth prices might stay low next year, so the margins are narrow."

Further complicating supply chains, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea have extended lead times for Chinese rare earth shipments to up to 12 weeks this year. While container freight rates have softened since their summer peak, they started rising again in late 2024 as businesses rushed to complete shipments ahead of a potential strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) in North America.

US Tariffs on Chinese Magnets Could Reshape Market

Looking further ahead, the US' planned 25% tariff on Chinese permanent magnets, set to take effect in 2026, is another factor that could reshape the rare earth market. The move has been welcomed by some companies as a way to level the playing field and support new US-based permanent magnet production, but its actual impact remains uncertain.

The US magnetics industry has taken small steps toward securing domestic supply chains, occasionally sourcing ferro-gadolinium and ferro-dysprosium from the spot market. However, with domestic magnet production still in its early stages, US demand for Chinese rare earth oxides, metals, and alloys remains high. Even when the tariff is implemented, industry experts warn that it may not be enough to significantly reduce reliance on Chinese magnets, as non-China-produced magnets typically command a price premium well above 25%.

Potential Trade War Escalation Under Trump Administration

Adding further uncertainty is president-elect Donald Trump’s proposed 60-200% tariffs on all Chinese imports, which could be implemented after his inauguration in January. While most analysts expect rare earth materials to be excluded due to US dependence on China, heightened geopolitical tensions and the increasing focus on critical minerals could lead to unexpected policy shifts.

As 2025 approaches, market participants remain watchful of potential developments in US-China trade relations, as any changes could significantly impact global rare earth supply and pricing dynamics.

Conclusion

Despite some recovery in automotive magnetics, overall rare earth demand outside China is expected to remain weak in 2025 due to macroeconomic headwinds, EV industry struggles, and cautious inventory management. The US' planned tariffs on Chinese magnets could reshape long-term supply chains but are unlikely to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths in the near term. Meanwhile, trade policy uncertainties under the Trump administration add another layer of unpredictability for rare earth markets going forward.