Mazda Eyes Thailand as Key Hub for Electric SUV Production

Mazda SUV

Japanese automaker Mazda is setting its sights on Thailand to become the main production base for its electric and electrified compact SUVs. This move is part of Mazda’s broader strategy to expand its electric vehicle (EV) footprint and to meet the rising demand for environmentally friendly vehicles across the ASEAN region. The investment aligns with Thailand’s ambitions to be a central player in the electric vehicle manufacturing sector.

Strategic Investment in Thailand’s EV Industry

Mazda announced an additional investment of 5 billion baht ($148 million) in Thailand. According to Thailand’s Board of Investment (BOI), this significant financial commitment will enable Mazda to produce up to 100,000 electrified compact SUVs per year. The investment will not only support domestic demand but also fuel exports to Japan and other ASEAN nations, enhancing Mazda’s regional presence.

The investment will focus on two of Mazda’s key manufacturing facilities in Thailand: the Mazda Powertrain Manufacturing Thailand and the AutoAlliance plant. The latter is a joint venture between Mazda and U.S. automaker Ford. The company plans to enhance its vehicle production lines, including the development of engine and electric vehicle battery production, to support the company’s future electrified product offerings.

Mazda’s Strategic Shift Toward Electrification

This investment marks the beginning of Mazda’s gradual shift towards electric vehicle production. According to Masahiro Moro, Mazda’s President and CEO, this is just the start of their transition to xEV (electric vehicle) production. In 2024, like many of its Japanese counterparts, Mazda faced operational challenges, including the suspension of production due to scandals involving tampered safety test results. Despite this, Mazda is taking proactive steps to strengthen its position in the rapidly growing EV market.

The Thai market itself saw a decline in car production in 2024, with a 20% year-on-year drop, according to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI). However, the Thai government’s support for the electric vehicle industry, including the extension of the BEV production requirements, is expected to provide a significant boost. As of the end of 2024, Thailand had produced nearly 10,000 battery electric vehicles (BEVs), signaling the country’s readiness to be a significant player in the EV landscape.

Conclusion: A Green Future for Mazda and Thailand’s Automotive Sector

Mazda’s focus on Thailand as an EV production hub reflects both the company’s commitment to sustainability and Thailand’s strategic importance in the global automotive industry. As Mazda advances its electrified product line, it aims to capitalize on Thailand’s growing automotive ecosystem and favorable policies supporting EV production. The company’s long-term goals will likely help strengthen both Thailand’s automotive sector and Mazda’s position in the global EV market.

Defense & Security 2025 turns Bangkok into Asia’s defense crossroads

Defense & Security 2025

Defense & Security 2025 opens in Bangkok with record scale and deep strategic signaling. Defense & Security 2025 hosts 580 companies, 28 national pavilions, and 26,000 visitors. Defense & Security 2025 runs 10–13 November at IMPACT under Thailand’s defense ministry.

China’s strategic push shapes the exhibition’s competitive landscape. Thailand has fielded Chinese VT-4 tanks, VN-1 IFVs, drones, and QBZ-195T rifles. Thailand has in recent years purchased more Chinese arms by value than US systems. Therefore, the halls highlight Chinese offerings across air, land, and maritime domains. Meanwhile, invited delegations exceed 350 senior officials from 35 countries.

Scale and content reinforce the show’s Asia-Pacific weight. Exhibits span missiles, tanks, UAVs, ships, satellites, and secure comms. Exhibitors also show electronic warfare, cyber, and counter-terror systems. As a result, the event functions as a tri-service marketplace with policy dialogue. Twenty seminars and conferences convene industry and government experts.

Defense & Security 2025, China Sector

China’s export expansion meets Thailand’s modernization

China’s export pattern concentrates on Asia and Oceania buyers. Asia-Oceania take 77% of Chinese arms exports, with Africa at 14%. Pakistan accounts for 63% of Chinese exports, followed by Bangladesh and Thailand. Consequently, regional procurement pipelines increasingly feature Chinese platforms and components.

Thailand’s modernization plan advances across multiple suppliers. The cabinet approved a phased purchase of 12 Gripen E/F jets over a decade. The estimated cost is 60 billion baht for the Gripen program. Thailand’s 2024 defense budget totals 198.3 billion baht, up 2% year on year. Therefore, procurement mixes US Strykers, Chinese VN-1s, and Israeli UAVs.

ASEAN’s rearmament cycle accelerates in parallel. Indonesia’s defense budget reached $13.2 billion in 2023. Singapore’s spending reached $13.4 billion in 2023 after a 10% rise. Singapore is acquiring eight F-35B fighters to expand airpower. Vietnam is upgrading naval capabilities to protect maritime claims.

Defense & Security 2025

Global spending pledges and exporter dynamics reframe supply chains

NATO members set a higher ambition at the June 2025 summit. Members committed to invest 5% of GDP in defense. This marks a major uplift from the earlier 2% benchmark. As a result, delivery slots, components, and workforce will tighten globally.

Exporter shares define competitive pressures through 2020–24. The United States held 43% of global arms exports. France and Russia followed in second and third positions. China accounted for 5.9% and ranked fourth. Therefore, Chinese vendors face strong US and European competition in premium segments.

Defense & Security 2025 serves more than a sales floor. Organizers prioritize invited government buyers and curated agendas. Discussions focus on autonomy, AI ISR, resilient logistics, and cyber. Exhibitors pitch lifecycle packages with training and local sustainment. Co-production, MRO, and data rights feature in many deal rooms.

The Metalnomist Commentary 

Bangkok’s show captures a decisive shift toward diversified sourcing and localization. Expect tougher offset terms, co-development, and data-centric sustainment as ASEAN hedges suppliers. Financing creativity will separate winners from followers in the next procurement wave.

Haisheng to Build Advanced Tungsten Plant in Thailand Amid Growing Global Demand

Ganzhou Haisheng

Ganzhou Haisheng, a leading Chinese tungsten producer, has received local government approval to construct a state-of-the-art tungsten processing plant in Thailand. The facility, with a total investment of 180 million yuan ($25 million), underscores China's strategic move to expand its tungsten production capacity beyond domestic borders.

The planned plant boasts an impressive production lineup, including:

•  3,000 t/yr of ammonium paratungstate (APT)
•  2,000 t/yr of tungsten powder
•  1,200 t/yr of tungsten carbide
•  400 t/yr of tungsten bar
•  300 t/yr of cemented carbide

While the exact completion and production dates remain unconfirmed, the project represents a significant milestone for Haisheng, known for its comprehensive production lines in China spanning from ore processing to downstream products like powders, metals, and wires.

Strategic Expansion Amid Trade Tensions

This development comes as Chinese tungsten exporters face increasing challenges due to trade conflicts with the United States. Since the US imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese tungsten products in September, Chinese exports have declined. Data from January to August reveals a 12% year-on-year drop, with exports totaling 11,718 tons of tungsten metal equivalent.

In response, Chinese tungsten producers are exploring overseas projects to mitigate the impact of trade barriers and diversify their markets. Haisheng's Thailand facility could serve as a model for other producers aiming to navigate geopolitical uncertainties while meeting rising global demand for tungsten, a critical material in electronics, aerospace, and industrial tooling.

A Boon for Thailand’s Economy

Thailand stands to benefit economically and technologically from Haisheng's investment. The new plant could bolster the country's industrial capacity, create jobs, and attract further foreign direct investment in the metals sector.

Conclusion

Haisheng’s move to establish a tungsten plant in Thailand highlights a pivotal shift in the global tungsten supply chain. As geopolitical pressures reshape trade dynamics, Chinese producers like Haisheng are strategically positioning themselves to remain competitive in the evolving global metals market.

Thailand Extends Deadline for BEV Production Commitments Amid Auto Industry Challenges

Thailand's Federation of Thai Industries

Extension of Commitment Deadlines

The National Electric Vehicle Policy Board of Thailand has announced an extension for battery electric vehicle (BEV) manufacturers to meet their production commitments originally set for this year. The extension, confirmed by the country's Board of Investment (BOI), comes in light of the challenges faced by the auto industry, including reduced production outputs and the impacts of global economic conditions.

Updated Production and Subsidy Guidelines

Under the first phase of Thailand’s EV promotion, known as EV 3.0 measures, BEV manufacturers who received subsidies were required to produce one BEV in 2023 for every vehicle they imported during 2022-2023. This obligation will now increase to producing 1½ BEVs by 2025 for every imported vehicle as part of the updated EV 3.5 measures. However, any unfulfilled commitments from the current year will not qualify for retroactive subsidies but must be met under the new EV 3.5 guidelines before any future subsidies can be applied.

Manufacturers who fail to meet their production quotas under the EV 3.0 scheme will see their unfulfilled obligations roll over into the next phase without the benefit of initial subsidies, as outlined by the BOI on December 4. This strategic adjustment aims to maintain investment momentum in Thailand’s burgeoning electric vehicle market.

Broader Industry Impact

The extension reflects broader challenges within Thailand’s automotive sector, as highlighted by the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI). The FTI has revised down the country's auto production forecast for 2024 twice this year, with the latest figures suggesting a drop from an initial 1.9 million units to 1.5 million units. This downturn is mirrored in the production statistics from January to October, showing a 19% decrease year-over-year, with significant reductions in domestic sales and exports as well.

Despite these setbacks, the production of electric vehicles shows a promising trend, with the production of battery passenger cars, hybrid passenger cars, and plug-in hybrid passenger cars reaching significant numbers. Furthermore, the National Electric Vehicle Policy Board’s recent decision to temporarily reduce the excise tax rate for hybrid EVs from 2028 to 2032 is expected to stimulate approximately 50 billion baht ($1.4 billion) in new investments, provided manufacturers comply with strict CO2 emissions standards and continue to invest in local production capabilities.

U.S. Finalizes Massive Solar Tariffs, Reshaping Southeast Asia’s Export Landscape

US solar

Commerce Department sets duties as high as 3,400% on solar products from Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia

The U.S. Department of Commerce has concluded a landmark trade investigation by imposing some of the highest anti-dumping and countervailing duties ever recorded on imported solar panels. The decision targets silicon photovoltaic cells and modules from four Southeast Asian nations: Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia.

These duties follow a year-long investigation into allegations that Chinese solar companies, previously subject to tariffs, shifted operations to Southeast Asia in an attempt to bypass U.S. trade regulations. The move is widely regarded as a turning point for the global solar supply chain, with U.S. officials and industry leaders viewing it as a necessary step to restore fair competition.

According to the final determination, some companies—particularly those that failed to comply with the Commerce Department’s requests—will now face duties exceeding 3,400%, an unprecedented figure. For example, four Cambodian firms, including Jintek and ISC, will be subject to this highest tier. In comparison, these same companies were only facing duties of 68% under the preliminary findings issued in October 2024.

On a broader scale, countrywide anti-dumping rates have also surged. Vietnam faces an average rate of 271%, Thailand 111%, and Cambodia 125%. Malaysia, while receiving the lowest general rate—just under 9%—still saw several of its companies slapped with individual duties over 80%, due to non-cooperation during the investigation.

The Commerce Department also imposed steep countervailing duties, which are used to offset the benefits companies receive from government subsidies. Cambodia again ranked highest, with a countrywide rate near 535%, while Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia saw rates of 125%, 264%, and 32%, respectively. The lowest countervailing duty—under 15%—was assigned to Hanwha Q Cells Malaysian subsidiary.

These tariffs are expected to take effect in June 2025, pending the final approval of the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC). In certain cases, particularly in Thailand and Vietnam, duties may apply retroactively if the agencies determine that "critical circumstances" exist—such as import surges meant to beat the implementation timeline.

The ruling stems from a petition filed by the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee, which includes prominent U.S. solar companies like FirstSolar, Mission Solar, and the U.S. arm of Hanwha Q Cells. The coalition argues that Chinese firms exploited a tariff moratorium enacted by President Biden in 2022 to reroute supply chains and avoid penalties, effectively distorting the market.

Tim Brightbill, legal counsel for the petitioner coalition, welcomed the decision. He emphasized that the tariffs represent a major victory for domestic manufacturers and are essential to encouraging long-term investment in the American solar industry. “These duties will go a long way toward protecting U.S. jobs and restoring a level playing field,” Brightbill said.

Industry analysts believe that the tariffs will have a ripple effect on solar deployment in the U.S., at least in the short term. Project developers who rely heavily on low-cost imported modules may face delays or cost increases. However, domestic producers see the ruling as a long overdue reset that prioritizes manufacturing resilience over low-cost imports.

As the global solar sector undergoes this structural shift, all eyes are on how China and Southeast Asian exporters will respond—and how U.S. clean energy goals will adapt to a more protected domestic market.

Sinomag Magnet Output Capacity Expands in Vietnam and Thailand

Sinomag

Vietnamese Ferrite Plant Boosts Sinomag’s Global Footprint

Chinese magnet producer Sinomag has increased its magnet output capacity at its Vietnam facility, expanding wet pressure magnetic tile production from 8,000 t/yr to 10,000 t/yr. This move is part of Sinomag’s broader strategy to scale global production outside China. The company targets 50,000 t/yr by year-end and 60,000 t/yr in the next few years, reinforcing its leadership in ferrite magnet manufacturing.

Thai Soft Magnet Facility Set for 2024 Launch

Meanwhile, Sinomag is preparing to launch its Thailand plant for soft magnetic materials by the end of the year. With an initial 8,000 t/yr capacity, this marks China’s first overseas soft magnet production facility. The company aims to grow this to 20,000 t/yr over the coming years. Sinomag’s soft magnets are primarily used in automobiles, household appliances, and new energy vehicles — especially in power modules and EV charging stations.

Strong Demand Meets Global Headwinds

Sinomag magnet output capacity increases come despite a 7.5% drop in first-quarter profits, driven by global photovoltaic slowdowns and stiff market competition. Nevertheless, first-quarter revenues rose 1.2% year-on-year to 256.5mn yuan ($35.49mn). The impact of Trump-era 145% tariffs on Chinese magnet imports remains minimal, as U.S.-bound shipments account for less than 3% of Sinomag’s exports.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sinomag’s capacity expansion reflects a strategic pivot toward international production to mitigate geopolitical risk. Vietnam and Thailand now play key roles in diversifying China's critical materials value chain, particularly in magnets essential to clean tech and automotive sectors.

US Antimony Secures Antimony Ore Supply from Thailand for Mexico Smelter Restart

USAC

US Antimony (USAC) has secured a new antimony ore supply agreement with a supplier in Thailand to support the restart of its Madero smelter in Mexico. The Texas-based company announced that the first shipments, totaling 50 wet metric tonnes (wmt), will arrive at Manzanillo port on Mexico’s west coast in March 2025. This deal is part of USAC’s broader strategy to re-establish its Mexican operations after shutting them down in early 2024 due to profitability concerns.

USAC’s Expansion Amid Rising Demand for Non-China Antimony

USAC’s agreement with Thailand marks its second antimony supply deal this month, as the company works to secure alternative sources of the critical metal. The firm has not disclosed the total contract volumes or the identity of its supplier but has indicated that ore shipments are expected to increase significantly in the coming months.

The timing of USAC’s expansion coincides with rising market demand for antimony sourced outside of China. China, the dominant supplier of the metal, recently suspended exports of antimony to the US, prompting companies to seek alternative sources. As a result, USAC has accelerated plans to restart its Madero smelter, which is currently undergoing maintenance and refractory lining replacements.

Market conditions have also been favorable for USAC’s decision. Antimony prices have surged, with 99.65% antimony recently assessed at $18.10-$18.30 per pound CIF US, representing an astonishing 256% increase compared to the previous year.

USAC Strengthens Financial Position with $100 Million Shelf Offering

To support its expansion efforts, USAC has also filed for a $100 million shelf offering, which will provide liquidity flexibility over the next three years. This move, pending regulatory approval, will allow the company to sell securities to raise capital when needed, ensuring it has the financial resources to scale up operations and secure long-term supply agreements.

Conclusion

As China’s export restrictions on antimony continue to reshape global supply chains, USAC is positioning itself as a key supplier by sourcing antimony ore from Thailand and restarting its Madero smelter. With stronger market demand, soaring antimony prices, and a new financing strategy, USAC is well-placed to capitalize on the shifting dynamics of the antimony market.

Global Rare Earth Mining Rises in 2024, But Reserves Shrink Sharply

Rare Earth Mining

Slower output growth and falling reserves raise concerns for long-term supply security

Global rare earth element (REE) mining output increased by 3.7% in 2024, reaching approximately 390,000 tonnes of rare earth oxide (REO) equivalent, according to the latest US Geological Survey (USGS) data. However, global reserves fell 21% year-on-year to 90 million tonnes, raising concerns about the future availability of these critical materials.

This year's modest output growth came in contrast to the 25% jump in 2023, signaling a slowdown driven by production declines in Myanmar and Australia. In contrast, China, the US, Thailand, and Nigeria increased their contributions, with China once again dominating global supply.

China strengthens position as top supplier amid growing NEV demand

China accounted for 69% of global REE output in 2024 after raising its mining quotas to meet strong permanent magnet demand. This was followed by the United States (11.5%), Myanmar (8%), and Australia and Thailand (3.3% each). China's production push aligns with record-breaking new energy vehicle (NEV) output, a sector that consumes over one-third of all global permanent magnets.

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), China produced 12.888 million NEVs in 2024, a 34% increase from 2023. Sales climbed 36% to 12.866 million units, while NEV exports rose 6.7% to 1.284 million units. Despite growth, exports face headwinds from EU countervailing duties and tariffs imposed by the US and Canada.

Rare earth reserves fall as exploration lags behind demand

Global rare earth reserves dropped by 21%, primarily due to declining estimates in Vietnam and Russia. Small increases in reserves in South Africa and the US were not enough to offset broader depletion. As demand from the electric vehicle and clean tech sectors accelerates, the widening gap between production and reserve replacement may pose strategic supply risks.

The permanent magnet sector, which consumes nearly half of all rare earths, will remain a key driver of REE demand. As global adoption of electric vehicles surges, rare earth supply chains must adapt to avoid long-term shortages.

US Antimony Secures Thai Antimony Ore for Mexico Smelter Restart

US Antimony

Strategic Supply Deal Aims to Boost Production Amidst Market Shifts

US Antimony (USAC) will source antimony ore from Thailand. This agreement supports the restart of its Madero smelter in Mexico. The initial shipment includes 50 wet metric tonnes (wmt). It will arrive at Manzanillo port in March. USAC seeks to increase ore quantities from this Southeast Asian source. This deal is the second supply agreement this month. The company aims to ramp up operations in Mexico. The Madero smelter closed in March due to profitability issues. Market demand for non-Chinese antimony has increased. China suspended antimony exports to the US. This incentivized USAC to restart its furnaces. Maintenance work includes new refractory linings. USAC also seeks to increase liquidity via a $100 million shelf offering. Regulatory approval is still required.

Increased Liquidity and Strategic Sourcing

USAC's move to secure antimony ore from Thailand is strategic. This addresses supply chain vulnerabilities. The company is actively working to enhance its financial stability. The $100 million shelf offering will provide needed capital. This will support operational expansion and maintenance.

Market Dynamics and Future Outlook

The suspension of Chinese antimony exports significantly impacted the market. This created opportunities for other suppliers. USAC is positioning itself to capitalize on this demand. The company's focus on restarting the Madero smelter is crucial. Increased production will meet market needs. USAC's efforts highlight the importance of diversified supply chains.

US Imposes Tariffs on Solar Imports from Four Asian Countries

US Solar

The U.S. Department of Commerce has imposed new duties on solar products imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The preliminary ruling, announced on Tuesday, claims that manufacturers in these countries have benefited from subsidies that allow them to undercut U.S. companies, thereby disrupting fair competition. The tariffs target crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells and modules, with rates ranging from less than 1% to nearly 293%, depending on the individual companies and their responses to Commerce’s inquiries.

Tariffs Range Widely, Affecting Industry Dynamics

U.S. Customs and Border Protection will now begin collecting cash deposits from importers to match the preliminary subsidy rates. The baseline rates are set as low as 2.85% for Vietnamese imports and as high as 23.06% for those from Thailand, but individual companies could face much higher tariffs if found to be "non-responsive" to Commerce’s investigation. These duties are retroactive by 90 days, adding pressure to the affected importers.

This action stems from a petition filed by the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee, a coalition of U.S. solar companies including FirstSolar, Mission Solar Energy, and Hanwha Q Cells. The group alleged that Chinese companies have been circumventing U.S. trade law by setting up production in Southeast Asia, exporting large volumes of subsidized solar products to the U.S. under the guise of local manufacturing. This allowed these companies to avoid duties imposed by previous investigations, leading to what the coalition claims is a distortion of the U.S. market.

In 2022, President Biden temporarily paused new duties from a related investigation to mitigate disruption in the U.S. solar market. However, critics argue that this gave Chinese companies an opportunity to shift their supply chains to Southeast Asia. Tim Brightbill, lead counsel for the coalition, expects the preliminary rates to rise as Commerce gathers more data from affected companies. "We are confident that the duty rates will increase as Commerce continues to investigate newly alleged subsidies," he said.

Industry Divided on the Impact of New Tariffs

The decision has sparked a debate within the U.S. clean energy sector. While manufacturers like FirstSolar support the tariffs as a means to protect domestic industry, other trade groups, such as the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE), warn that the tariffs could hinder the country’s decarbonization efforts. ACORE CEO Ray Long emphasized the need for a balanced approach, stating, "What America's clean energy sector needs right now is a balanced trade policy that sustains the progress we're making deploying clean energy and ramping up domestic manufacturing capabilities."

Commerce is set to release a preliminary antidumping determination on November 27, which could further affect the industry landscape. Petitioners have requested that Commerce issue final determinations on both countervailing and antidumping duties simultaneously, which would potentially arrive by April 11, 2025. Without joint issuance, a separate determination on countervailing duties could come as soon as February 10, 2025.

ACE Green Recycling to Expand LFP Battery Recycling Capacity in India

ACE Green Recycling

ACE Green Recycling, a US-based battery recycling company, has announced plans to significantly expand its lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery recycling capacity in India. The company aims to increase its recycling capacity to 10,000 tonnes per year by 2026.

Expansion Details and Location

The expanded facility will be located near the port of Mundra in northwest India, building upon ACE's existing operations in the country. The strategic location near the port is expected to optimize the transportation of both feedstock and offtake products, improving efficiency and reducing costs.

Technology and Recovery Rates

ACE Green Recycling claims its proprietary technology can recover lithium from LFP batteries at levels of around 75%, producing lithium carbonate with a purity exceeding 99%.  In addition to lithium, the technology can also recover other valuable materials, including graphite, iron phosphate, steel, and copper. This comprehensive recovery process maximizes resource utilization and minimizes waste.

Market Outlook and Future Plans

ACE's chief executive officer, Nishchay Chadha, highlighted the expected dominance of LFP batteries in the lithium battery market by 2030, stating that the company is strategically scaling its LFP battery recycling capacity to meet the anticipated demand and support its growing customer base.  This expansion in India is a key part of ACE's broader growth strategy.

ACE also has plans to launch another LFP battery recycling plant in Texas, USA, in the second half of 2026. This plant is projected to have a processing capacity of 5,000 tonnes per year of scrap batteries.  In 2022, ACE signed a 15-year supply agreement with Switzerland-based Glencore for all recycled products from four of ACE's planned lead-acid battery and lithium-ion battery recycling facilities in the US, India, and Thailand, demonstrating strong market demand for recycled battery materials.

Global refined zinc market surplus set to widen through 2026

Zinc

The global refined zinc market surplus is forecast to widen sharply as supply growth outpaces a modest demand recovery. According to ILZSG projections, refined zinc will move from an 85,000t surplus in 2025 to a 271,000t surplus in 2026. As a result, the global refined zinc market surplus will increasingly shape treatment charges, pricing power and smelter utilisation, especially outside China. The refined zinc balance already showed a 47,000t surplus in the first half of this year, confirming the shift from earlier tightness.

However, demand for refined zinc is still expected to grow, even under pressure from weak construction and patchy industrial activity. ILZSG forecasts refined zinc use to rise by 1.1pc to 13.71mn t in 2025, led by a 1.3pc increase in China on stronger vehicle output. Meanwhile, European demand should finally stabilise, rising by 0.7pc after three years of contraction, with France, Germany, Norway and Poland offsetting declines in Italy and Russia. Emerging markets including India, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and Vietnam will also support consumption, even as Brazil and South Korea lag.

Supply expansion drives global refined zinc market surplus

The global refined zinc market surplus is driven primarily by a clear upturn in mine and smelter supply. ILZSG expects zinc mine production to rise by 4.6pc to 12.51mn t in 2025, with 5pc growth outside China. Therefore, higher output from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ireland, Portugal, Russia and Sweden joins gains in China, South Africa, Peru and the DRC. Further mine growth in 2026 will be underpinned by the reopening of Aljustrel in Portugal and higher production in Australia, Brazil, the DRC and China.

At the smelter level, refined zinc output is forecast to rise by 2.7pc to 13.8mn t in 2025, then by 2.4pc to 14.13mn t in 2026. The biggest driver is China, where new capacity is being commissioned and is expected to lift output by 6.2pc in 2025. Meanwhile, European production receives a structural boost from Boliden’s 150,000 t/yr expansion at the Odda smelter in Norway. These increases will outweigh declines in Italy, Japan, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and South Korea, locking in the global refined zinc market surplus unless demand surprises to the upside.

Refined lead market also tips into surplus

The surplus story extends beyond zinc, with refined lead also moving into a looser balance. ILZSG projects refined lead supply to exceed demand by 91,000t in 2025 and 102,000t in 2026. Demand for refined lead is still expected to rise by 1.8pc this year to 13.25mn t, and by 0.9pc to 13.37mn t in 2026, driven mainly by Europe, Vietnam and the US. However, supply will grow faster, with refined lead output seen rising by 2pc to 13.34mn t in 2025 and by 1pc to 13.47mn t in 2026, supported particularly by Brazil and India. As a result, both zinc and lead markets are heading into a multi-year period of oversupply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The global refined zinc market surplus projected for 2025–26 signals a prolonged phase of buyer’s market dynamics in galvanising and alloy segments. Smelters with high energy costs or weaker integration into mine supply will face the greatest margin pressure as treatment terms and premiums adjust. For lead, surpluses underline the importance of battery recycling economics and regional policy support, especially as EV and energy storage value chains reshape traditional lead-acid demand.

China’s Antimony Export Restrictions Reshape Global Supply and Prices

Antimony

China’s antimony export restrictions tightened in June, choking overseas flows and straining supply chains. As China’s antimony export restrictions intensified, shipments of metal and trioxide collapsed year on year. The policy shift underscores Beijing’s firmer control over strategic critical minerals.

Exports collapse across products

Antimony metal exports plunged to 20t in June, all to South Korea. A year earlier, flows reached 153t. First-half exports fell 84pc to 267t from 1,720t last year. Meanwhile, antimony trioxide exports slid to 87t in June from 3,228t a year earlier. June volumes went to Egypt, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Policy crackdown sustains price strength

China suspended gallium, germanium, and antimony exports to the US in December 2024. The US had taken one-third of China’s trioxide exports in 2023. Beijing then vowed a continued crackdown on smuggling of strategic minerals on 19 July. As a result, European prices held at multi-year highs in Rotterdam. Regulus grade II metal and trioxide grade traded around $58,000-60,000/t duty unpaid. The geographic shift in stocks further tightened access for downstream users.

The supply squeeze reflects new compliance hurdles and tougher licensing reviews. Traders report slower approvals and narrower eligible end uses. Flame retardant and alloy producers face longer lead times and higher working capital. Therefore, buyers diversify toward non-Chinese feedstock where possible. Still, China’s antimony export restrictions remain the defining market driver.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tighter Chinese controls have reset the antimony trade’s risk premium. Prices should stay elevated while enforcement curbs leakages and re-exports. Watch European restocking patterns and US substitution to gauge demand resilience.

US solar duties on imports: manufacturers target India, Indonesia and Laos

US solar companies

A new petition seeks US solar duties on imports from India, Indonesia and Laos to curb alleged dumping. A coalition of domestic manufacturers filed AD/CVD cases with Commerce and the ITC. They allege Chinese-backed and Indian firms sell below fair value with illegal subsidies. As a result, US solar duties on imports could expand again after last month’s Southeast Asia tariffs.

Who is behind the push

The Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade leads the petition. Members include First Solar, Mission Solar Energy and Qcells. Previously, the alliance won duties on Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. However, petitioners say producers shifted capacity to Laos and Indonesia. They argue US solar duties on imports must follow those shifts to protect jobs and investments.

The filing targets crystalline silicon PV cells and modules. Petitioners claim antidumping sales under “normal value.” They also cite countervailable subsidies that distort US prices. The first step is an inquiry by Commerce and the ITC. Regulators can then impose provisional tariffs pending final determinations.

How new tariffs could reshape supply chains

New tariffs would raise delivered costs for targeted panels and cells. Meanwhile, they could bolster US factory utilization and planned expansions. Developers may diversify procurement across non-targeted sources to manage risk. As a result, buyers face short-term price volatility and contracting delays.

Trade diversion remains a central concern for policymakers. Petitioners argue enforcement must track ownership and processing routes. Therefore, compliance programs and country-of-origin audits will matter more. Clear guidance on scope will be critical for bankable supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Trade policy is steering the solar supply chain as much as technology. If Commerce opens these cases, expect tighter margins and faster localization. Bankable EPCs will hedge with multi-country sourcing while awaiting preliminary duty rates.

Global Zinc Market Records 19,000t Surplus in January-October

ILZSG(The International Lead and Zinc Study Group)

The global Zinc market registered a 19,000-tonne surplus in the first ten months of 2024, according to the latest data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). This surplus emerged despite a significant drop in global mined zinc output, which fell 3.8% year-on-year to 9.67 million tonnes (mn/t) due to lower production in Canada, China, South Africa, and Peru. Peru’s Antamina mine, a key zinc producer, saw a substantial decline in output, further contributing to the decrease.

Refined Zinc Production Declines While Demand Rises

Global refined zinc production reached 11.36mn t, down 1.7% year-on-year. The decline was driven by lower output from China, Japan, the Netherlands, Peru, and Russia, though France, India, and Germany partially offset these losses with production increases.

Despite these supply constraints, global zinc consumption rose by 1.25% to 11.34mn t, reflecting stronger demand from Brazil, India, South Korea, Mexico, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam. The rising consumption, particularly from galvanizing industries, suggests a stable outlook for zinc demand.

China’s Zinc Concentrate Imports Drop Sharply

China’s zinc concentrate imports fell by 19.6% to 1.52mn t, reflecting lower domestic smelting activity and a weaker appetite for imported zinc ores. Given China’s role as the world’s largest zinc consumer and producer, fluctuations in its import levels can have significant impacts on global supply chains.

54% of the World's Copper Mines Face 'Drought Shock'

Anglo American Copper Mining

More than half of the world’s copper mines are exposed to 'drought risk'. Other major metal raw materials such as iron ore, lithium, and cobalt are also facing potential supply disruptions due to abnormal weather conditions.

Metalnomist stated in a report published on the 24th, “Climate anomalies caused by global warming will adversely affect the supply and demand of international raw materials.” The center cited data from the global consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), predicting that by 2050, 54% of the world's copper mines and 74% of lithium and cobalt mines will experience reduced production due to drought. Water is essential for crushing mineral ores, separating impurities, and cleaning equipment. McKinsey highlighted that “copper, gold, iron ore, and zinc are particularly vulnerable to drought, as 30-50% of these mines are located in areas with insufficient water resources.”

Chile, which produced over 30% of the world's copper in 2020, is already suffering from severe drought. Chilean state-owned mining company Codelco produced only 1,325,000 tons of copper last year, the lowest in 25 years, due to water shortages and other impacts.

15 Years of Water Shortage in the World’s Largest Copper Reserve: "If Mining Halts, Prices Could Quadruple"

Metalnomist warned on the 24th, “Mining items heavily dependent on production from specific countries are at risk of global supply disruptions due to abnormal weather conditions.”

According to Metalnomist, 47% of the world's copper reserves are concentrated in three countries : Chile, Peru, and the Congo. 74% of iron ore is concentrated in China, Australia, and Brazil, while 80.8% of bauxite is concentrated in Guinea, China, and Brazil. Copper demand has recently surged due to the AI boom, raising concerns that any supply disruption could significantly impact the industry. Global infrastructure asset manager Macquarie Group predicts that the annual copper demand could increase by 2 million tons by 2030 due to the surge in AI data centers. Copper is crucial for the construction of both data centers and power grids.

Northern Antofagasta, Chile's largest copper and lithium deposit, is a prime example of a region unable to increase production due to water shortages. Reuters recently reported that local mining company Antofagasta PLC has been struggling to secure water supply as reservoirs have dried up due to a 15-year-long drought. In the first quarter of this year, Antofagasta PLC’s copper production decreased by 11% compared to the same period last year.

Limited water resources are also causing conflicts with local communities. Antofagasta PLC and Australian mining company BHP were sued by Chile’s National Defense Commission (CDE) in 2022 for environmental pollution. The CDE claimed that mining companies extracted water volumes exceeding regulations, causing severe damage to the local ecosystem and indigenous communities.

Seawater desalination plants are being considered as a solution to these issues. However, the high investment costs and long construction periods limit their ability to solve water problems immediately.

Due to structural constraints on copper supply, it is predicted that copper prices could skyrocket in the coming years. Goldman Sachs projected that the average copper price next year would be $15,000 per ton. Pierre Andurand, founder of hedge fund Andurand Capital, analyzed that the global copper supply shortage could drive prices up to $40,000 per ton by 2028. Copper traded at a record high of $10,857 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on the 21st of last month, before falling to $9,563 on the 21st of this month.

The increasing demand for electricity for cooling due to heatwaves is also expected to raise the demand for fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas. Metalnomist noted, “Europe is in a situation where it is inevitable to expand thermal power generation to meet the increasing electricity demand in summer,” and added, “In Asian countries such as Thailand, India, and Bangladesh, the demand for natural gas for power generation has increased.”

China’s Rare Earth Exports Surge to 18-Year High Amid Rising Global Demand

China’s Rare Earth

China’s Rare Earth Shipments Reach Record Levels in 2024

China’s rare earth exports soared to their highest level since 2006, driven by increased global demand. In 2024, exports rose by 6% year-on-year, reaching 55,431 metric tons, according to customs data. Despite the volume increase, the average export price dropped 39% to $8,818 per ton, marking the lowest level since 2017.

Growing Demand from Key Industries and Global Buyers

A surge in demand from the electric vehicle (EV), wind turbine, and high-tech industries fueled higher rare earth purchases. Lower prices, supported by stable ore feedstock supplies and weak domestic magnet consumption, encouraged overseas buyers to increase imports.

The top four destinations for China’s rare earth shipments in 2024 were Japan, the United States, the Netherlands, and Taiwan, collectively accounting for 76% of total exports. Meanwhile, demand surged in Vietnam, Turkey, and Canada, while shipments to Poland, Russia, and Thailand saw declines.

Neodymium, Dysprosium, and Praseodymium Shipments Decline

Despite the overall rise in exports, neodymium metal shipments plummeted 87% year-on-year due to falling demand from Japan. Exports of dysprosium oxide, praseodymium oxide, and lanthanum carbonate also declined in 2024 compared to the previous year, reflecting weaker overseas demand.

Alaska LNG Gains Momentum Through Two-Phase Development

Alaska LNG

Glenfarne’s Phased Approach Reduces Risks for Alaska LNG

Alaska LNG’s two-phase financing strategy is designed to reduce investment risks and improve project viability. Glenfarne Energy Transition, the lead developer with a 75% stake, plans to separate the $44bn project into two independent stages. The first stage includes a North Slope gas treatment plant and a 765-mile pipeline delivering gas to Anchorage, where shortages are expected by 2027.

By structuring the project with separate final investment decisions (FIDs), Glenfarne avoids the pitfalls of the 2016 attempt by ExxonMobil, BP, and ConocoPhillips, which collapsed due to high upfront risks. Glenfarne’s phased approach ensures that each stage is financially viable and attractive to both creditors and offtakers.

Domestic Supply Security and LNG Export Potential

The initial phase secures gas supply for Alaska’s largest population center while laying the foundation for LNG exports. The 3.5bn ft³/d pipeline would transport sufficient gas to meet domestic needs and supply the future liquefaction facility in Nikiski.

If developed, the second phase would add compression capacity, a 42-mile connector pipeline, and a 20mn t/yr LNG terminal. Glenfarne has already received regulatory approval from the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and export authorizations from the Department of Energy, positioning the project for international market entry.

Strong International Interest in Alaska LNG Volumes

Asian buyers are showing strong demand for Alaska LNG, signaling export market viability. In June, Glenfarne announced receiving more than $115bn worth of bids from over 50 companies. Taiwan’s CPC signed a preliminary deal in March, while the Philippines and Thailand have expressed interest in future volumes.

Geopolitical dynamics also play a role, as former US President Donald Trump has urged Asian allies to invest in Alaska LNG in exchange for trade concessions. These developments highlight the project’s potential to strengthen US energy ties in the Asia-Pacific region.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Alaska LNG’s revival through Glenfarne’s phased financing marks a strategic shift in US LNG project development. By ensuring domestic gas security while targeting Asian demand, the project balances local needs with global energy ambitions. However, execution risks remain high, especially in financing and geopolitical stability, which will determine whether Alaska LNG becomes a cornerstone of US energy exports.

BYD's February EV Production and Sales Soar on Strong Domestic and Overseas Demand

BYD, EV

BEVs and PHEVs Drive China's Top NEV Manufacturer to New Heights

China’s top new energy vehicle (NEV) producer, BYD, recorded major growth in EV output and sales in February 2024. The rise was fueled by expanding consumer demand and BYD’s broad product lineup across low- and high-end NEV segments.

BYD’s February NEV production totaled 327,864 units, up 1.9% from January and threefold year-on-year. This includes 4,913 commercial NEVs and 329,211 passenger NEVs.

Among passenger NEVs, battery electric vehicle (BEV) output surged 194% to 126,419 units, while plug-in hybrid (PHEV) output more than tripled to 202,792 units.

In total, BYD’s NEV production in 2024 so far has risen 41% to 4.304 million units compared with last year.

NEV Sales More Than Double; Overseas Expansion Accelerates

BYD sold 322,846 NEVs in February, up 7.4% from January and more than double year-on-year. This includes 4,613 commercial and 318,233 passenger vehicles.

Passenger BEV sales jumped 127% to 124,902 units, while PHEV sales soared 189% to 193,331 units. The company’s total 2024 NEV sales reached 4.272 million units, a 41% increase from 2023. Analysts expect BYD will reach 5–6 million units in 2025.

BYD has also expanded its global footprint with EV manufacturing projects in Hungary, Thailand, Brazil, Uzbekistan, Cambodia, Morocco, India, Turkey, and Vietnam.

In February, overseas passenger vehicle sales reached 67,025 units, nearly triple the 23,291 units sold a year earlier.

Battery Output Continues to Surge Alongside NEV Growth

As one of China’s top battery makers, BYD installed 16.695 GWh of power and energy storage batteries in February. This is more than double the figure from a year earlier, reinforcing BYD’s scale in both vehicle and battery manufacturing.

With strong domestic momentum and accelerating overseas expansion, BYD continues to lead China’s NEV market.

China's BYD Begins EV Production in Uzbekistan

China's top electric vehicle (EV) maker, BYD, has officially kicked off EV production in Uzbekistan through a joint venture. Back in December 2022, BYD teamed up with Uzbekistan's Uzavtosanoat JSC (UzAuto) to cater to the rising demand for EVs in Central Asia. The first phase of production aims to roll out 50,000 units annually, focusing on BYD's Song Plus DM-i and Destroyer 05 hybrid plug-in EVs. Specific details about future development phases haven't been revealed yet.

Located in Jizzakh state in eastern Uzbekistan, the plant produced its first BYD Song Plus DM-i vehicle on June 27. This event marks the beginning of mass production at the facility and is expected to significantly boost vehicle electrification in the country, said BYD chairman Wang Chuanfu.

BYD has also signed a green transportation cooperation initiative with the Uzbek government to promote the country's EV development. The company began selling EVs in Uzbekistan in March 2023.

Chinese EV makers, including BYD, have been ramping up their global expansions to manage potential oversupply and address geopolitical challenges from the US and Europe. BYD has invested in EV production in Hungary, Thailand, Brazil, Morocco, India, and Vietnam, with a total planned capacity of around 1 million units per year.

Since 2022, BYD has been the world's largest producer of new energy vehicles (NEVs), manufacturing 1.29 million NEVs from January to May, a 26% increase compared to the previous year. During the same period, sales rose by 27% to 1.27 million units. In 2023, BYD's NEV sales surged to 3.024 million units, up 62% from the previous year. The company is also a leading EV exporter in China, with over 176,000 units shipped from January to May.