China's Lithium Tech Export Curbs Threaten EU Battery Industry

China's Lithium Battery

Key Technology Export Controls Put European Battery Industry on Edge

China's proposed restrictions on exporting key lithium processing technologies are sending shockwaves through the European Union's (EU) burgeoning battery industry. The proposed curbs target crucial equipment used in lithium extraction and battery material production, including lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery production equipment, cathode preparation technology, and direct-lithium-extraction (DLE) technology, particularly from spodumene and brines. A consultation period is open until February 1st, after which a final decision will be made.

Europe's Reliance on Chinese Technology Raises Concerns About Supply Chain Security

Industry experts warn the impact could be significant, especially for junior European lithium producers heavily reliant on Chinese technology. Companies like Northvolt, which recently announced job cuts and scaled back ambitions, highlight the vulnerability of the EU's current strategy. The restrictions could hinder the development of a robust, independent European battery supply chain.

Companies with In-House Technology See Opportunity Amidst Crisis

However, some companies are better positioned to weather the storm. Vulcan Energy Resources, an Australian company with operations in Europe, claims to have developed in-house absorption-type DLE technology, securing its supply chain and potentially offering solutions to other European players. Vulcan Energy Resources' executive chair, Francis Wedin, emphasized the strategic advantage of their technology, particularly given Goldman Sachs's preference for brine-based lithium extraction due to lower production costs.

European Lithium Market Faces Uncertainty and Calls for Action

Other voices in the European lithium market paint a more concerning picture. Viridian Lithium's chief commercial officer, Luc Pez, warned of potentially "extremely disruptive" consequences for the nascent ex-China battery supply chain. Pez criticized the lack of preparedness in Europe and the US, urging for accelerated reshoring of the battery supply chain and addressing regulatory inconsistencies within the EU. He highlighted the urgent need for Europe to establish concrete plans and achieve its targets in the face of increasing competition from China in the electric vehicle market.

The Future of European Electric Vehicle Market Hangs in the Balance

China's proposed export restrictions underscore the geopolitical complexities of the lithium market and the challenges facing Europe's ambitions in the electric vehicle sector. The move could significantly impact the development of the European electric vehicle market, as the EU aims to reduce its reliance on China for battery supply.

Ecobat Sells European Battery Distribution Business to Refocus on Recycling

Ecobat

Strategic Shift Toward Core Battery Recycling Operations

Ecobat, a Texas-based battery recycler, has sold its European battery distribution arm to UK private equity firm Endless as part of a strategy to divest non-core assets. The divested division supplied a broad range of batteries for automotive, commercial, marine, leisure, and industrial markets. While financial terms remain undisclosed, the move underscores Ecobat’s intent to prioritize its core battery recycling operations across the US, UK, and Germany.

Market Pressures and Recycling Industry Challenges

Ecobat’s three lithium battery recycling facilities have a combined processing capacity of up to 10,000 metric tonnes per year. However, the battery recycling sector faces significant headwinds. Slower-than-expected electric vehicle (EV) adoption has limited the availability of end-of-life battery feedstock, while a growing shift toward lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries — which contain fewer high-value metals like cobalt and nickel — has reduced the economic incentive for recycling. This market pressure has already impacted competitors, as demonstrated by Canadian recycler Li-Cycle’s recent bankruptcy protection filing in both Canada and the US.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ecobat’s divestment aligns with an industry trend of focusing resources on profitable, technology-driven recycling operations rather than lower-margin distribution businesses. As the EV market evolves and LFP battery adoption accelerates, recyclers will need to adapt their business models to remain competitive. Partnerships with battery producers and innovation in material recovery technology may be crucial for long-term success.

Easpring Launches Lithium CAM Production in Finland to Supply European Battery Market

Finnish Battery Group

Joint Venture with Finnish Minerals Backs Strategic CAM Investment in Kotka

Beijing Easpring has initiated lithium CAM production in Finland, targeting Europe’s expanding battery manufacturing sector. The new facility in Kotka, southeast Finland, is being developed through a joint venture with Finnish Minerals Group (FMG) and its subsidiary Finnish Battery Chemicals (FBC). The project, valued at €800 million, marks a pivotal step in establishing localized cathode active material (CAM) production in the EU.

500,000t Capacity Aims to Meet Surging European Battery Demand

The facility will produce 500,000 tonnes/year of CAMs, including 200,000 tonnes of NCM and 300,000 tonnes of LFP/LMFP. The first phase targets 60,000 tonnes of NCM, aligning with growing EV demand and localized supply strategies. While the launch date remains undisclosed, Easpring emphasized its commitment to sustainability and innovation in lithium CAM production in Finland.

Strengthening Finland’s Battery Value Chain and Industrial Sovereignty

The investment strengthens Europe’s ability to produce battery-grade materials domestically, reducing reliance on imported inputs. FMG CEO Matti Hietanen highlighted the project's importance to Finland’s battery value chain, while Easpring Chair Chen Yanbin noted its role in setting global CAM standards. The company already supplies major OEMs including SK On, LGES, and Samsung SDI, and sources materials from CNGR, Albemarle, and Huayou Cobalt.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The move to localize lithium CAM production in Finland aligns with Europe’s EV supply chain autonomy goals. Easpring’s investment marks a strategic pivot toward resilient, regional battery materials manufacturing that could reshape EU-China industrial partnerships.

Japan EU battery recycling alliance aims to cut China dependence

Japan, EU battery alliance

Japan EU battery recycling alliance marks a strategic push to reduce reliance on China in battery materials. The new Japan EU battery recycling alliance brings together key industry groups to strengthen recycling, black mass handling and data sharing. As a result, the Japan EU battery recycling alliance targets a more resilient and transparent battery supply chain across both regions.

Japan EU battery recycling alliance links tech strength and market scale

The Japan EU battery recycling alliance is built around three core industry associations. Japan’s Battery Association for Supply Chain, the European Battery Alliance and Brussels based Recharge have signed an initial agreement. Together, they will cooperate on improving recycling processes, materials flows and supply chain governance.

The agreement covers information exchange on issues such as data sharing and regulatory interpretation. It also includes joint studies on black mass classification, a key bottleneck for cross border recycling flows. Black mass refers to shredded cathode material containing nickel, cobalt and lithium from spent batteries. Therefore, clear definitions and standards for black mass are critical for trade, permitting and ESG compliance.

Japanese officials highlight the importance of combining Japan’s technology strength with Europe’s market size. Japan offers advanced recycling technologies and process know how developed over decades of battery manufacturing. Meanwhile, Europe provides a rapidly growing battery market driven by EV mandates and energy storage deployment. This mix gives the Japan EU battery recycling alliance strong industrial foundations.

Reducing strategic exposure to China dominated battery materials

The Japan EU battery recycling alliance clearly responds to geopolitical supply concerns. Officials from Japan’s trade and industry ministry note that the current battery supply chain depends heavily on one country. Although unnamed, the reference clearly points to China’s dominance in processed lithium, nickel, cobalt and anode materials.

By deepening cooperation, Tokyo and Brussels aim to reduce vulnerability to export controls or political friction. Recycling and black mass trade can partially offset primary supply risks from Chinese refineries and processors. In addition, improved data sharing should help track origin, quality and ESG performance of recovered materials. As a result, the Japan EU battery recycling alliance supports compliance with emerging battery passport and due diligence rules.

The initiative also fits within the broader Japan EU competitiveness alliance launched in July. That framework seeks closer coordination on semiconductors, clean energy, critical minerals and industrial standards. Battery recycling now becomes a visible test case for how quickly the partnership can move from statements to practical projects.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This partnership underlines how recycling is moving from a niche activity to a core pillar of battery security strategy. If the Japan EU battery recycling alliance can harmonise black mass standards and data systems, it will lower barriers for serious cross regional recycling investment. Market participants should watch for pilot projects, joint ventures and regulatory tweaks that follow this initial, largely framework level agreement.

Gotion Slovakia battery plant anchors new EU battery supply hub

Gotion Slovakia battery plant

Gotion Slovakia battery plant construction has begun, marking a major step in Europe’s race for local EV cell capacity. The Gotion Slovakia battery plant will be the country’s first gigafactory and a key node in China–EU battery supply chains. As a result, the Gotion Slovakia battery plant positions Slovakia as a new player in Europe’s electrification map.

Gotion Slovakia battery plant targets EU gigafactory scale

The first phase of the Gotion Slovakia battery plant will add 20GWh a year of lithium-ion capacity. Gotion plans pilot production in 2026, with commercial volumes starting in 2027 and feeding customers across EU markets. This timing aligns with accelerating European EV and energy storage demand, as automakers seek diversified cell suppliers.

Meanwhile, the Surany facility will be Slovakia’s first battery gigafactory, strengthening Central Europe’s role as an automotive manufacturing corridor. Products will likely support both passenger EVs and stationary storage, given Gotion’s broad lithium-ion portfolio. Therefore, OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers in the EU gain another large-scale, non-European cell source inside the single market.

Chinese battery makers accelerate overseas footprint

Gotion has rapidly expanded outside China, with projects in Morocco, Thailand, Japan and the US adding to 20 global plants. The company targets 300GWh a year of installed capacity by 2025, including 100GWh outside China, to serve regionalised EV supply chains. However, its planned Michigan cathode and anode plant was cancelled after policy disagreements with local authorities.

As a result, Europe and emerging markets now absorb more of Gotion’s outbound investment as geopolitical trade risks rise. Chinese battery makers are building overseas to diversify customers, reduce tariff exposure and align with “local-for-local” industrial policies. These projects also hedge against potential future export controls on advanced battery materials and equipment.

Export controls delayed but policy risk remains

China has postponed planned export restrictions on certain high-end lithium batteries, key equipment, cathode materials and artificial graphite. The one-year delay followed talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump and removes an immediate brake on Chinese firms’ overseas expansion. However, the episode underscores how quickly regulation can reshape the global battery value chain.

In the near term, Gotion and its peers gain critical time to lock in projects and qualify products with Western OEMs. Longer term, governments may still tighten controls around strategic battery technologies and materials. Therefore, assets like the Gotion Slovakia battery plant will be increasingly valued for their on-shore, policy-resilient capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Gotion’s Slovakia project is another sign that gigafactory competition is shifting from pure cost to geopolitical resilience. For European automakers, Chinese-backed plants inside the EU offer cost-effective capacity but deepen strategic interdependence. The next question is whether Brussels and national governments will pair such investments with stronger upstream and recycling policies to secure the full battery value chain.

Germany Pushes Forward with Sodium-Ion Battery Development to Compete with China

Northvolt

Germany is spearheading the development of sodium-ion battery technology, positioning itself as a major player in the future of energy storage solutions. A consortium of 15 working groups, led by battery supplier Varta, has begun scaling up industrial sodium-ion battery technology as part of the Entise project. This project, which received €7.5 million ($8.31 million) from Germany's education and research ministry in May, marks Europe's latest effort to challenge China's dominance in battery manufacturing.

Germany's Strategic Move in Battery Technology

The Entise project is part of a broader European Union strategy to promote sodium-ion technology as a competitive alternative to lithium-ion batteries. The EU has invested heavily in this field, with initiatives such as the €925 million BATT4EU project launched in 2021 to accelerate battery research. Sodium-ion batteries, though still a niche technology, are gaining traction due to their cost-effectiveness and the use of more abundant materials like iron.

Meanwhile, companies like Sweden's Northvolt and Altris, along with U.S.-based Fluor, are pursuing sodium-ion battery development without public funding. However, weak demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and falling battery material prices have dampened revenues for battery makers, slowing down investment in next-generation battery technologies like sodium-ion.

Germany is projected to account for 21% of Europe's lithium-ion battery production capacity by 2030, outpacing other nations such as Hungary and France. This growth underscores the country’s role as a key player in the European battery supply chain. Despite these advancements, China remains the global leader, with 52% of lithium-ion production capacity projected by 2030.

Sodium-Ion's Niche Role in Global Battery Demand

Sodium-ion batteries are expected to play a limited role, accounting for less than 1% of global battery demand by 2030. However, their versatility means they could be used in a variety of applications, including grid-scale storage, transportation, consumer electronics, and even aerospace. Though they are bulkier than lithium-ion batteries, sodium-ion alternatives are cheaper to produce, using hard carbon from wood or biowaste for the anode and Prussian white (iron-based) for the cathode. This makes them a promising candidate for lower-cost energy storage solutions in the future.

Battery Metals Demand Faces Slower Path as Hybrid Vehicle Growth Extends

Battery Metals

Battery metals demand could face a slower growth path as carmakers and suppliers expect hybrids and range extenders to remain important for longer than earlier electric-only transition models assumed. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car summit said vehicle decarbonisation should be measured by emissions reduction, not only battery electric vehicle share.

Battery metals demand remains structurally supported by electrification. However, a longer hybrid phase could reduce near-term demand intensity for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese because hybrid vehicles use smaller battery packs than full battery electric vehicles.

Battery metals demand assumptions are therefore becoming more complex. Automotive electrification is still progressing, but the industry is moving toward a mixed powertrain future rather than a simple shift from combustion engines to full BEVs.

Horse Powertrain chief executive Matias Giannini said half of passenger vehicles could still be produced with some form of combustion or hybrid powertrain by 2040. That outlook would keep investment flowing into efficient hybrid systems alongside EV platforms.

Hybrid Growth Changes the Battery Raw Materials Curve

Hybrid vehicle growth could temper the pace of battery raw material demand without reversing electrification. Hybrids and range extenders still require electric motors, inverters, wiring and batteries, but their battery packs are much smaller than those used in BEVs.

This matters most for nickel. High-nickel NCM and NCA batteries are closely tied to longer-range BEVs, where larger packs are needed to deliver performance and driving range.

A slower BEV ramp-up could delay some of the nickel sulphate demand growth that has supported investment cases for new battery-grade nickel projects. It could also affect cobalt and manganese demand in cathode chemistries exposed to full EV penetration rates.

Lithium remains supported across almost every electrification pathway. Still, a longer hybrid transition could slow the rate at which large-format BEV batteries absorb lithium units.

The shift does not mean automotive metals demand will weaken across the board. Hybrids use more copper than conventional combustion vehicles because they require electric motors, power electronics and more complex wiring systems.

Continued hybrid and combustion production also supports aluminium castings, stainless steel, exhaust components and engine-related materials. Meanwhile, BEV growth still supports aluminium lightweighting, copper wiring, charging infrastructure and battery materials.

The result is a less linear automotive metals outlook. Battery metals may grow more slowly than aggressive BEV scenarios suggest, while broader automotive metals consumption remains supported by platform complexity and mixed powertrain production.

Policy Flexibility Could Reshape European Metal Demand

European suppliers are pushing for more flexibility in the EU regulatory framework. Current policy remains heavily weighted toward full electrification through tailpipe emissions targets.

The EU targets a 100% reduction in tailpipe emissions from new cars and vans from 2035. That effectively ends new combustion engine sales unless future exemptions are created.

Industry participants increasingly want a more technology-neutral route. They argue that hybrids, range extenders, renewable fuels and lower-carbon manufacturing should contribute to emissions reduction alongside BEVs.

This policy debate matters for metals. Battery material demand depends heavily on BEV penetration, average pack size and chemistry choice.

If Europe allows a longer role for hybrids and range extenders, lithium-ion battery capacity demand per vehicle could grow more slowly. That would affect demand forecasts for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese.

Chinese EV and hybrid technology is also improving quickly. This puts pressure on European and US automakers to share development costs across BEV, hybrid and range-extender platforms.

For suppliers, the strategic issue is flexibility. Companies tied only to high-growth BEV battery assumptions may face demand timing risk, while suppliers serving copper, aluminium, stainless steel, electronics and hybrid systems may benefit from a broader platform mix.

The automotive transition is still real, but the material demand path is becoming more diversified. Metals markets must now track powertrain mix, not only EV sales headlines.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hybrid growth does not weaken the energy transition, but it changes the metals timing. Battery metals demand will still rise, yet copper, aluminium and hybrid-related materials may capture more value if automakers choose a longer mixed-powertrain route.

Nth Cycle Trafigura Battery Materials Deal Signals Scale-Up in Black Mass Refining

Nth Cycle

Nth Cycle Trafigura battery materials deal marks a significant step for recycled battery metals supply as the US critical metals refiner prepares to expand its refining footprint. Nth Cycle has signed a 10-year binding offtake agreement to supply Trafigura with battery materials valued at $1.1bn.

The agreement covers 2,000 metric tonnes of contained nickel in mixed hydroxide precipitate and 1,500 tonnes of lithium carbonate. These materials will be refined from 12,000 tonnes of black mass, reinforcing the growing commercial role of recycled feedstock in the battery supply chain.

The Nth Cycle Trafigura battery materials deal also gives Trafigura long-term exposure to recycled nickel and lithium units. That matters as battery manufacturers, automakers, and trading houses seek lower-carbon and more traceable alternatives to mined raw materials.

Modular Refining Model Targets Faster Battery Materials Capacity

Nth Cycle plans to establish new operations in South Carolina and the Netherlands, with production scheduled to begin in 2028. The dual-location strategy gives the company access to both North American and European battery supply chains.

The company’s modular refinery system is designed to reduce build time and capital intensity. This model could become important because conventional refining projects often face long development timelines, high upfront costs, and permitting delays.

Black mass refining is becoming a strategic bridge between battery recycling and primary raw material supply. By converting battery waste into mixed hydroxide precipitate and lithium carbonate, refiners can return critical metals into the battery value chain with less dependence on new mining projects.

Trafigura Offtake Strengthens Commercial Validation

The Nth Cycle Trafigura battery materials deal provides commercial validation for Nth Cycle’s refining technology and expansion plan. A 10-year offtake agreement with a major global trading house can support financing, customer confidence, and project execution.

Nth Cycle has also received a €7.5mn grant from the Netherlands’ National Growth Fund under the Critical Raw Materials Lion initiative. This support highlights Europe’s policy focus on domestic and regional critical raw materials capacity.

The agreement reflects a broader shift in battery materials markets. Recycled nickel and lithium are moving from pilot-scale sustainability claims toward bankable supply contracts. As a result, black mass is increasingly becoming an industrial feedstock rather than a waste stream.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal shows that battery recycling is entering a more serious commercial phase. The key challenge for Nth Cycle will be execution, because long-term offtake value only matters if modular refining can deliver consistent volume, quality, and cost performance.

US Turkey LFP Battery Partnership Targets 7GWh Production by 2027

Our Next Energy

US Turkey LFP battery partnership emerged as Our Next Energy (ONE) contracted Turkish manufacturer Pomega Energy Storage Technologies to produce 7GWh of lithium iron phosphate battery cells. The strategic US Turkey LFP battery collaboration targets 2GWh production in 2026 escalating to 5GWh in 2027, supporting ONE's energy storage solutions for utility, commercial, and industrial customers while bridging manufacturing capacity before domestic US production commences.

Strategic Manufacturing Timeline Bridges International and Domestic Production

US Turkey LFP battery production will focus on ONE's 314Ah LFP battery cells manufactured at Pomega's Ankara facility. The Turkish facility maintains 3GWh installed capacity and currently undergoes qualification for global export markets. This partnership provides immediate manufacturing access while ONE develops its Michigan-based grid battery production line scheduled for 2027 operations.

Meanwhile, the collaboration enables ONE to meet near-term customer demands without delayed market entry. Founder and CEO Mujeeb Ijaz emphasized the partnership's role in supporting customer commitments during the transition to US-based manufacturing capabilities. The phased approach reduces market risks while ensuring continuous supply chain operations across international and domestic facilities.

Turkish Manufacturing Hub Supports Global Battery Supply Chains

However, Pomega's Ankara facility represents Turkey's growing position in global battery manufacturing ecosystems. The facility's 3GWh capacity and export qualification process demonstrate Turkish manufacturing capabilities in advanced energy storage technologies. Turkey's strategic geographic position provides advantageous access to European, Middle Eastern, and Asian markets for battery exports.

Therefore, the partnership leverages Turkey's industrial infrastructure while supporting ONE's expansion strategy across utility-scale energy storage markets. Turkish manufacturing costs and skilled workforce availability create competitive advantages for large-scale battery production. The collaboration also strengthens US-Turkey commercial relationships in critical technology sectors driving clean energy transitions.

Market Positioning for Utility-Scale Energy Storage Growth

Furthermore, the LFP battery production targets utility, commercial, and industrial energy storage applications experiencing rapid market expansion. Lithium iron phosphate technology offers safety and cost advantages compared to alternative battery chemistries, particularly for large-scale stationary storage installations. The 314Ah cell specification aligns with industry requirements for grid-scale energy storage systems.

As a result, ONE's dual-facility strategy positions the company competitively across North American and international markets during the critical 2026-2027 period. The Turkish production capacity provides flexibility while Michigan facility development progresses, ensuring market presence during peak demand growth. This geographic diversification reduces supply chain risks while maximizing market opportunities across multiple regions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

ONE's partnership with Turkish manufacturer Pomega exemplifies how US battery companies strategically leverage international manufacturing partnerships to bridge capacity gaps before domestic production scaling, particularly important as global LFP demand accelerates faster than domestic manufacturing development. The collaboration demonstrates Turkey's emerging role as a strategic manufacturing hub for critical battery technologies, positioning the country advantageously within global energy storage supply chains serving both European and American markets.

AMG Lithium Hydroxide Sales Lift First-Quarter Profit as German Refinery Starts Output

AMG Lithium

AMG Lithium hydroxide sales drove a sharp first-quarter turnaround as AMG Lithium began selling unqualified battery-grade lithium hydroxide from its new German refinery. The subsidiary of AMG Critical Minerals sold $21mn of lithium hydroxide in January-March, helping revenue rise by 89%.

AMG Lithium hydroxide sales marked the first commercial contribution from the German refinery. The plant produced its first commercial batches during the quarter, giving AMG a new downstream revenue stream beyond spodumene concentrate.

AMG Lithium hydroxide sales remain at an early stage because the material has not yet completed customer qualification and approval processes for long-term supply contracts. The “unqualified” label does not mean the product lacks battery-grade characteristics. It means customers have not yet fully approved it for routine contracted supply.

The result shows how lithium producers are trying to move further down the battery materials chain. Spodumene mining remains important, but lithium hydroxide refining offers higher-value exposure if qualification, consistency and customer approvals are achieved.

German Refinery Adds Downstream Lithium Exposure

AMG Lithium’s first-quarter performance shows the strategic value of adding refining capacity in Europe. The German refinery allows the company to convert lithium feedstock into lithium hydroxide closer to European battery and cathode customers.

Battery-grade lithium hydroxide is a key input for nickel-rich cathode chemistries used in electric vehicles and high-performance batteries. European supply remains strategically important as the region seeks to reduce dependence on imported battery chemicals.

The refinery’s first commercial batches therefore carry industrial significance beyond the initial sales value. AMG is building a position in the midstream lithium chain, where qualification, product quality and customer trust determine long-term value.

However, qualification remains the key hurdle. Battery customers require strict consistency, impurity control and process reliability before committing to long-term supply agreements.

The company’s current sales are therefore an early commercial step, not a fully mature refinery ramp-up. The next stage will depend on customer approvals, stable production volumes and the ability to secure higher-value contracts.

Brazil Spodumene Recovery Supports Integrated Model

AMG’s Brazil lithium mine also improved during the quarter. Spodumene production rose by 11% on the year to 13,454t, recovering after ore grade and equipment issues affected output last year.

The mine is back operating in line with AMG’s 2026 target guidance of 130,000 t/yr. Current capacity is around 100,000-110,000 t/yr, according to the company.

Spodumene pricing also strengthened. AMG’s average realised cif China spodumene sales price rose to $916/t in the first quarter, up 43% from $640/t a year earlier.

Higher lithium prices supported the lithium segment’s profitability. AMG Lithium swung to a $15.4mn profit from a $13.9mn loss a year earlier, helped partly by the upward valuation of existing inventory.

But the group’s overall profit still fell by 25% because AMG excludes inventory mark-ups from its final figures. This shows that headline lithium segment improvement partly reflects accounting treatment rather than only operating cash generation.

Shipping delays also capped first-quarter performance. More than 12,000t of spodumene shipments were delayed into April-June, pushing related revenue into the second quarter.

For AMG, the strategic direction is clear. The company is combining Brazilian spodumene production with European lithium hydroxide refining to capture more value across the lithium chain. The model will become stronger if refinery qualification progresses and delayed shipments translate into second-quarter revenue.

The Metalnomist Commentary

AMG Lithium’s first-quarter profit shows how quickly downstream refining can change the earnings profile of a lithium producer. The real test is not the first $21mn of hydroxide sales, but whether AMG can qualify the product, scale output and turn European refining into a durable margin advantage.

Global Battery Demand Nears 1TWh in 2024 as LFP Market Share Surges

Battery

EV Growth and China Lead Surge in Battery Demand

Global battery demand reached nearly 1TWh in 2024, largely driven by rising electric vehicle (EV) adoption, according to the IEA's latest EV Outlook 2025. The Focus Keyphrase "global battery demand" continues to dominate energy transition narratives as EV sales accelerate across major economies.

EV battery demand alone exceeded 950GWh, accounting for more than 85% of total battery consumption. China led with 59% of EV battery demand, followed by the U.S. and EU, each holding a 13% share. The IEA projects battery demand will more than triple to over 3TWh by 2030 under current national policies. While supply of critical minerals is currently in surplus, the IEA warns that depressed prices could deter future investment, risking lithium and nickel shortages by decade’s end.

Battery Manufacturing Grows Faster Than Demand

Global battery manufacturing capacity grew by nearly 30% to 3.3TWh in 2024, tripling actual demand. If all announced projects proceed, capacity could reach 6.5TWh by 2030, outpacing the IEA’s projected demand.

South Korea led overseas battery capacity expansion with over 400GWh deployed in 2024, far ahead of Japan (60GWh) and China (30GWh). If planned projects materialize, South Korea could produce over 1TWh annually by 2030, almost double China’s expected output. As a result, China’s global manufacturing share is projected to fall from 85% in 2024 to two-thirds by 2030, diversifying global supply chains.

LFP Dominates Market as Regional Dynamics Shift

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries now make up nearly half of the global EV battery market, with Chinese producers holding a de facto monopoly, especially in Europe and the U.S. European OEMs are increasingly opting for LFP chemistries to cut costs, displacing South Korean suppliers.

South Korean battery makers’ EU market share fell to 60% in 2024, down from 80% in 2022, while their U.S. market share rose to 35%, closing in on Japan’s 48%. Major Korean firms — LG Energy Solution, SK On, Samsung SDI — are all preparing for mass LFP production to compete in this fast-growing segment.

Meanwhile, LFP adoption in Southeast Asia, Brazil, and India has surpassed 50% of battery electric car sales, signaling rapid global penetration. However, Japanese battery makers face domestic setbacks, highlighted by Nissan’s cancellation of its Kyushu LFP plant amid restructuring.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The rise in global battery demand underscores a structural transformation in energy, mobility, and manufacturing. While demand growth is robust, the oversupply of battery capacity and volatility in mineral prices highlight the sector’s growing pains. As LFP continues its global ascent, regional competition and vertical integration will shape the future of the battery ecosystem.

Europe Faces Challenges in Strategic Battery Funding Amid Market Oversupply

EU Battery

European countries are struggling to adopt a unified and strategic approach to funding domestic battery supply chains as global oversupply of battery materials, led by China, continues to push prices lower through at least 2030. These issues were a key focus of the Future Battery Forum held this week in Berlin, Germany.

Oversupply in Battery Materials

The battery materials market, including nickel and cobalt, faces oversupply due to significant production increases from Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). According to Siyamend Al Barazi, head of unit mineral economics at Germany’s Dera (German Mineral Resources Agency), "markets will be oversupplied at least until 2030." China's state subsidies, estimated at $230 billion from 2009 to 2023, have further contributed to this glut, maintaining downward pressure on global prices.

European Critical Raw Material Challenges

Despite the establishment of the EU Critical Raw Material Act (CRMA), which identifies 34 critical and 17 strategic materials vital to green and digital technologies, European funding efforts fall short of addressing the massive investment needs for battery material production and processing.

In September, Germany's KfW bank approved a €1 billion raw materials fund, while similar initiatives were launched by Italy, France, and the UK. However, panelists at the forum, including Jonathan Vanherberghen from Rio Tinto, argued that these amounts are insufficient for large-scale projects. For example, the capital expenditure for Rio Tinto's Jadar lithium project in Serbia alone stands at $2.5 billion.

Fragmented Funding and Industry Concerns

The fragmented funding landscape in Europe has made it difficult to pool resources effectively. Vanherberghen noted that funds like KfW’s could be more impactful if extended over longer periods to accommodate changing market cycles. Similarly, Cris Moreno, CEO of Vulcan Energy, highlighted that funding of at least $1 billion annually is required to meet the region’s ambitions. Moreno’s own lithium project in Germany has an estimated cost of $1.4 billion.

Despite the challenges, these funding initiatives provide some support by attracting institutional investors and fostering collaboration with car manufacturers, which are under increasing pressure to meet carbon targets and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) standards.

Toward a Unified European Strategy

Experts at the forum emphasized the need for a more unified and sizeable funding mechanism to bolster Europe’s battery supply chain. A single, cohesive approach would allow Europe to compete with countries like China, South Korea, and Japan, where government support for raw material projects is significantly more robust.

Vanherberghen concluded, "Funds like that will only support projects with the highest ESG standards. Bringing these things together could create a much more effective system than the fragmented approach currently in place."

Stellantis Leapmotor Spain BEV Production Plan Signals Localised Chinese EV Strategy

Stellantis

Stellantis Leapmotor Spain BEV production plans could mark a new phase in Europe’s electric vehicle supply chain, as western automakers look to combine local assembly with lower-cost Chinese components. Stellantis and Leapmotor are considering new battery electric vehicle lines at Zaragoza and Villaverde in Spain through their Leapmotor International joint venture.

Stellantis Leapmotor Spain BEV production would move the partnership beyond vehicle imports and toward European manufacturing. That shift matters because local content rules, tariff risk and regional supply security are becoming more important in the EV market.

Stellantis Leapmotor Spain BEV production could also help the companies respond to weaker European affordability conditions. Chinese component sourcing can lower cost, while Spanish assembly may improve regulatory and commercial positioning inside Europe.

The companies have not disclosed production targets, utilisation rates or investment figures. This leaves the scale of the plan uncertain, but the strategic direction is clear.

Spain Could Become a European Platform for Leapmotor Models

Zaragoza could gain a new all-electric SUV line as early as this year. The plant has long been associated with Opel production and could become a base for new BEV output under the joint venture.

Villaverde in Madrid may also become more important to Leapmotor International. The plant faces a production gap after Citroen C4 output ends and may shift entirely to Leapmotor models by 2029.

That potential transition would give Stellantis a way to protect industrial activity at existing Spanish plants while adding lower-cost BEV models to its European portfolio.

The plan reflects a broader industry pattern. European automakers are trying to defend market share against Chinese EV competition while also using Chinese platforms, components and cost structures to improve competitiveness.

Stellantis bought a 21% stake in Leapmotor in 2023 and created a 51-49 joint venture to sell and manufacture Leapmotor vehicles outside China. Spain could now become one of the key production bases for that strategy.

For Spain, the opportunity is industrial. More BEV assembly could support jobs, supplier activity and demand for local logistics, batteries, wiring, aluminium components and electronics integration.

Local Assembly Meets Cost Pressure and Supply-Chain Rules

The move from imports to local production is strategically important. European BEV manufacturing is increasingly shaped by tariffs, local content rules, battery sourcing requirements and political pressure to keep vehicle production inside the region.

Leapmotor brings cost-competitive EV engineering and components. Stellantis brings European plants, distribution, regulatory experience and manufacturing scale.

This combination could help address one of Europe’s biggest EV problems: producing affordable electric vehicles while maintaining regional industrial capacity.

However, the lack of disclosed volumes makes the market impact difficult to judge. Without production targets, it is unclear whether the Spain plans will materially change Stellantis’ European BEV output.

Stellantis needs stronger BEV momentum. Its BEV sales accounted for around 13% of output in the first half of last year, behind Volkswagen and BMW, and the company later reported a major write-down after cutting prices.

Leapmotor is growing much faster. Its EV sales, including plug-in hybrids, more than doubled last year to 596,000 units. That growth gives Stellantis access to a Chinese partner with clear scale momentum.

The industrial implication extends into materials. More European BEV production increases demand for aluminium body and structural parts, copper wiring, electrical steel, battery materials, power electronics and lightweight components.

If the model works, Stellantis and Leapmotor could create a template for Chinese-designed, Europe-built EVs. That would reshape competition not only in vehicles, but also in the upstream materials and component chains that support regional BEV manufacturing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Stellantis and Leapmotor are not only discussing new Spanish EV lines; they are testing a hybrid supply-chain model for Europe. Local assembly with Chinese components may become a practical route for automakers caught between cost pressure, tariff risk and the need to keep European factories active.

Livium LGES battery recycling deal extends Australia’s circular battery value chain

Livium

The Livium LGES battery recycling deal is expanding Australia’s role in the circular battery economy and black mass supply. Under the renewed Livium LGES battery recycling deal, Livium will process both recalled and end-of-life residential batteries. As a result, the Livium LGES battery recycling deal now runs to 2029 and anchors new growth in Australian black mass output.

Black mass volumes rise as Livium expands feedstock

Livium will continue processing LG Energy Solution batteries recalled in Australia and now add end-of-life units from local users. This expanded access to feedstock should increase black mass volumes and stabilise plant utilisation over the medium term.

The recycler sold over 350t of black mass in the 2024-25 financial year to 30 June. Therefore, management expects higher sales in 2025-26 as the Livium LGES battery recycling deal ramps up. Livium channels this black mass to processing partners such as South Korea’s SungEel Hitech. These partners convert black mass into battery chemicals, which return to global cathode and cell producers.

Meanwhile, LGES is building a 20,000 t/yr battery recycling plant in France with Derichebourg. That European joint venture will also produce and process black mass from end-of-life batteries from 2027. Together, these initiatives show how LGES is building regional recycling hubs to secure critical materials.

Livium LGES battery recycling deal supports lithium recovery innovation

The Livium LGES battery recycling deal also complements Livium’s work on recovering lithium from spodumene waste. Livium signed an agreement with Australian producer Mineral Resources in January to optimise this extraction technology. As a result, the partners formed a joint venture in August to commercialise the process at scale.

This positions Livium not only as a black mass producer but also as a technology player in lithium recovery. For LGES, the partnership reduces long-term exposure to mined feedstock volatility and environmental scrutiny. It also aligns with automakers’ and battery producers’ ESG targets on recycling and resource efficiency.

In strategic terms, expanding the Livium LGES battery recycling deal strengthens regional supply security for nickel, cobalt and lithium units locked in black mass. It also supports Australia’s ambition to move up the value chain from raw material supplier to processing and technology hub.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This partnership illustrates how structured offtake agreements can accelerate the build-out of regional battery recycling ecosystems. For metals markets, increasing black mass flows from deals like this will gradually reshape demand for primary material and reward recyclers with robust technology and downstream access.

Intensifying Battery Competition in Asia Amid Evolving Market Dynamics

EV Battery

The Race for Dominance in the Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery Market

The competition among major battery producers, particularly between China and South Korea, is set to intensify in 2025. South Korean giants like LG Energy Solution (LGES), Samsung SDI, and SK On are aggressively pursuing mass production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, a domain where Chinese manufacturers have traditionally excelled. These South Korean firms are targeting a mass production rollout by the latter half of 2025, aimed primarily at the electric vehicle (EV) market.

Strategic Market Expansion

South Korean battery manufacturers are not just competing on the product level; they are also strategically targeting markets in the US and Europe, regions where their Chinese competitors have been less successful. This move is particularly strategic given the recent failure of Northvolt in Europe, which previously held a significant share of the European battery production capacity. The potential rollback of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits, however, poses a financial threat to these South Korean firms, particularly with the upcoming changes anticipated under the administration of US president-elect Donald Trump.

Challenges and Opportunities in Other Regions

Australia, on the other hand, is focusing on niche areas such as "stationary storage" battery production, despite facing significant challenges in its mining sectors, especially with nickel and lithium. The downturn in these industries has led to major setbacks, such as the closure of the Bald Hill site by Mineral Resources, prompting government intervention.

In Southeast Asia, countries like Indonesia and the Philippines are making notable advances. Indonesia, in collaboration with LGES and Hyundai Motor, has already commenced operations at a new battery production facility, while the Philippines has launched its first LFP battery plant, which began operations in October with the support of Australian investment firm StB Capital Partners.

Sibanye-Stillwater Shifts Focus at Sandouville Nickel Refinery Amid European Battery Market Push

Sibanye-Stillwater, a prominent South African multi-metals mining group, announced yesterday its decision to terminate a key supply agreement at its Sandouville nickel refinery in France as part of a strategic shift to repurpose the facility. The refinery, previously focused on nickel sulphate production, will now be geared towards producing precursor cathode active material (pCAM) for the burgeoning European battery market. The termination of the supply deal is expected to be finalized by December 31, 2024.

The decision comes with significant financial implications, as Sibanye-Stillwater anticipates incurring costs of $37 million due to the termination. Despite this, the company plans to continue refining from inventory and maintaining sales through the first quarter of 2025.

The Sandouville refinery, acquired from Eramet in 2022, is undergoing a transformation driven by the GalliCam project, which focuses on shifting from nickel sulphate to pCAM production. This pivot is based on positive results from a scoping study, though a final decision will hinge on the outcomes of an ongoing feasibility study. Central to this transformation is the planned use of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) in a chloride medium, replacing the current use of nickel matte. Sibanye-Stillwater has emphasized that this new process will streamline production, reduce energy consumption, lower carbon emissions, and generate fewer waste products. The company filed a patent application for the chloride-MHP process in July.

A small-scale pCAM precipitation pilot is currently underway at the Sandouville site, with testing set to begin by the end of the third quarter of this year. This initiative marks a significant step in Sibanye-Stillwater’s strategy to position itself as a key player in the European battery supply chain.

CATL Battery Sales Surge 30pc in Q1 2025 on Global Energy Storage Demand

CATL Battery

Energy Storage and European Growth Propel CATL Battery Sales

CATL battery sales reached 120 GWh in Q1 2025, marking a 30pc increase from the same period last year. The company attributed the surge to expanding demand in energy storage markets in the Middle East and Australia.

Roughly 20pc of Q1 sales supported energy storage projects, highlighting CATL’s strategic diversification beyond electric vehicles. The firm also noted that its production capacity remains fully utilized, driven by global demand momentum.

CATL Strengthens Position in Europe, Navigates US Tariffs

CATL’s European battery market share climbed to 38pc in 2024, up from 17pc in 2021.

Its German plant turned profitable, reinforcing CATL’s foothold in the region amid favorable regulatory and demand conditions.

Meanwhile, US market exposure remains limited, and CATL has implemented contingency plans to counteract trade policy risks. The company is also negotiating with customers to mitigate the effects of tariff uncertainty on business continuity.

Financials Reflect Strong Q1 Momentum

CATL posted a net income of 14bn yuan ($1.92bn) for Q1 2025, up 33pc year-on-year, bolstered by geographic and sectoral diversification. This performance underscores CATL’s operational agility in a fragmented and politically sensitive global battery market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CATL’s Q1 growth underscores its success in diversifying across regions and energy applications. Its resilience in the face of tariff pressures signals strong strategic planning and global supply chain positioning.

Li-Cycle Signs Exclusive Recycling Agreement with EU EV Manufacturer

Li-Cycle

Li-Cycle Partners with European Luxury EV Maker for Battery Recycling

Canadian lithium-ion battery recycler Li-Cycle has entered into an exclusive recycling agreement with a high-performance luxury electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer in the European Union. While the name of the manufacturer and specific details regarding the agreement remain undisclosed, this collaboration is set to play a crucial role in the circular economy of the electric vehicle industry.

Enhancing Battery Recycling Operations in Germany

The agreement ensures a steady supply of feedstock from the EV production facility located in the European Union to Li-Cycle’s spoke facility in Magdeburg, Germany. Li-Cycle operates a spoke-and-hub network, where used batteries are first shredded into black mass at the spokes. This black mass is then processed at the hubs to extract valuable materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel, which are essential for the production of new batteries.

Li-Cycle's expansion into Germany is a significant step in its mission to build a sustainable solution for lithium-ion battery recycling. The company’s innovative process helps recover critical raw materials, ensuring the responsible disposal and reuse of EV batteries in Europe.

A Strong Financial Backing for Growth

In November 2022, Li-Cycle secured a loan of up to $475 million from the US Department of Energy, which was later upsized by $100 million. This funding boosts the company’s ability to expand its operations and facilities globally, including its new venture in Germany. With the growing demand for EVs and the rise in battery recycling needs, Li-Cycle is well-positioned to serve as a key player in the transition to a greener future.

Conclusion: A Key Step in EV Battery Sustainability

Li-Cycle’s exclusive agreement with an EU-based luxury EV manufacturer signals a promising future for battery recycling. The partnership not only contributes to the global push for sustainability but also strengthens Li-Cycle's role in the critical metals supply chain. As the electric vehicle industry continues to grow, so does the demand for sustainable solutions to manage battery waste and recover valuable materials.

Ford Starts Battery Pack Assembly in Germany

Ford Battery Pack

Ford Expands EV Production with Cologne Battery Facility

Ford has begun mass assembly of electric vehicle battery packs at its Cologne, Germany plant, marking a major step in the automaker’s $2bn European electrification strategy. The facility will directly align with Ford’s nearby Cologne Electric Vehicle Center, enabling integrated production of the Capri and Explorer EV models, which will deliver ranges of up to 627km and 602km.

The highly automated production line, spanning 2km, uses 180 robots to weld, glue, and assemble the battery housing. Each battery pack consists of 2,775 individual parts and up to 12 modules, underscoring Ford’s commitment to advanced manufacturing efficiency and scale.

Strategic Supply Agreements for EV Battery Materials

Ford has also secured long-term supply deals to ensure stable access to critical materials. In October 2024, LG Energy Solution signed a contract to deliver 109 GWh of batteries from 2026, with terms extending up to six years. Meanwhile, US specialty chemicals firm Albemarle agreed to supply over 100,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide between 2026 and 2030.

These partnerships highlight Ford’s focus on securing raw materials essential for its EV expansion. The agreements align with global trends of automakers locking in lithium and battery supply to mitigate price volatility and ensure future production capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ford’s Cologne investment reflects the growing importance of localized EV battery production in Europe. By integrating supply agreements with global partners, Ford strengthens its resilience against supply chain disruptions. This strategy not only supports its electrification roadmap but also places it in direct competition with European and Asian automakers accelerating EV deployment.

EU EV Transition Faces Energy Cost and Trade Policy Pressure

EU energy

EU EV transition plans are facing growing pressure from high energy costs, tougher global competition and a regulatory model that industry leaders say may be weakening Europe’s automotive position. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car Summit warned that Europe must rethink how it competes with China and other industrial economies.

EU EV transition policy has relied heavily on regulation, including the planned 2035 phase-out of new internal combustion engine car sales. But carmakers and suppliers argue that regulation alone cannot deliver a competitive electric vehicle industry if energy prices, subsidies and supply-chain costs remain unfavourable.

EU EV transition challenges are becoming more visible as Chinese automakers gain share in Europe, southeast Asia and Latin America. Chinese producers have built cost-competitive EV platforms through subsidies, domestic competition, supply-chain control and fast industrial scaling.

The debate matters for metals because slower or more expensive electrification can reshape demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnets. Automotive materials demand will still grow, but the path may become less direct and more exposed to policy choices.

China’s EV Scale Forces Europe to Rethink Trade Strategy

European automotive suppliers are calling for a more realistic approach to global competition. The industry is facing rivals that operate under different labour, subsidy and industrial policy conditions.

China has become one of the world’s strongest EV exporters. It accounted for around 40% of global EV exports in 2024, while leading Chinese brands have expanded aggressively with lower-cost, technology-rich vehicles.

This creates a competitive problem for European carmakers. Europe has focused on setting strict emissions targets, while China has focused on making EVs cheaper, scalable and export-ready.

Several industry executives now argue that collaboration may become unavoidable. Western manufacturers may need to partner with Chinese or other international competitors that already have a technological lead in EV platforms, batteries, software and power electronics.

This could change European supply chains. Rather than developing every technology internally, carmakers may increasingly combine European assembly and branding with externally sourced EV systems.

That strategy could support faster electrification, but it also creates dependence on imported components, battery materials and processed inputs. It may help automakers compete on cost, but it does not solve Europe’s strategic materials vulnerability.

Energy Costs Could Slow Consumer Adoption and Metals Demand

High charging and energy costs are another major barrier to Europe’s EV push. If consumers face much higher charging costs than drivers in China or other regions, the economic case for EV adoption weakens.

This is critical because EV demand is highly sensitive to total ownership cost. Batteries may become cheaper, but charging costs, highway tariffs and energy price volatility can still shape consumer decisions.

For battery metals, this matters directly. Slower EV adoption would reduce the speed of demand growth for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese, especially in full battery electric vehicles with large battery packs.

Copper and aluminium remain better positioned across multiple automotive pathways. EVs require copper for wiring, motors, charging systems and power electronics, while aluminium supports lightweighting, battery enclosures and structural components.

However, Europe’s automotive metals demand will increasingly depend on which technology mix wins. Full BEVs support larger battery metals demand, while hybrids and lower-cost EV platforms could shift consumption toward smaller batteries, more electronics and continued use of conventional automotive materials.

The policy challenge is therefore industrial as much as environmental. Europe must reduce emissions while keeping manufacturing competitive, securing raw materials and lowering energy costs for consumers.

If Europe cannot align regulation, energy prices and trade strategy, its EV transition could become a market for imported vehicles rather than a platform for domestic industrial growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s EV problem is not only about regulation or consumer demand. It is about whether the region can build a cost-competitive industrial system around energy, materials, technology and trade before Chinese EV platforms define the market.