Outokumpu Europe Loss Highlights the Pressure on Stainless Steel Margins

Outokumpu

Outokumpu Europe loss became the defining feature of the group’s 2025 performance. The Finnish stainless steel producer reported weaker deliveries, lower sales, and softer earnings for the year. Europe remained the main drag, while the Americas and ferro-chrome divisions provided support. As a result, Outokumpu Europe loss shows how difficult the regional stainless market remains.

The company’s full-year stainless steel deliveries fell 2.3pc to 1.751mn t. Group sales dropped nearly 8pc to €5.47bn as realized prices weakened in both Europe and the Americas. Adjusted Ebitda slipped to €167mn from €177mn in 2024. Therefore, Outokumpu Europe loss reflects both weaker pricing and a more challenging operating environment.

Fourth-quarter performance was even weaker. Stainless steel deliveries sank 13.5pc to 365,000t, hurt by soft demand and temporary disruption from a new ERP rollout. That rollout affected supply-chain planning in Europe during the quarter. Consequently, operational execution added to already fragile market conditions.

European Stainless Steel Demand Remains the Core Problem

European stainless steel demand remains the biggest weakness in Outokumpu’s portfolio. The company’s European business swung to an adjusted Ebitda loss of €46mn in 2025, compared with a €58mn profit in 2024. Deliveries in Europe fell 6pc to 1.148mn t, while realized prices dropped sharply. As a result, Outokumpu Europe loss was driven by both lower volumes and thinner margins.

The fourth quarter showed even deeper stress. Adjusted Ebitda in Europe deteriorated to negative €56mn, worse than the negative €32mn recorded a year earlier. Deliveries in the region dropped 23pc year on year to 223,000t. Therefore, European stainless steel demand remains too weak to support profitable utilization.

Outokumpu is responding with restructuring. The company is targeting €100mn of structural annual cost savings by the end of 2027, mainly in Europe. It also booked €34mn of restructuring costs in the fourth quarter tied to personnel reductions. Meanwhile, pricing and capacity utilization continue to weigh on margins across the region.

Ferro-Chrome Earnings and the Americas Help Offset the Weakness

Ferro-chrome earnings and the Americas business helped prevent an even weaker group result. In the Americas, adjusted Ebitda rose to €102mn from €59mn in 2024. Deliveries increased 4.36pc to 622,000t as some customers shifted toward domestic suppliers during tariff changes. As a result, the Americas became the clearest positive area in the group.

The ferro-chrome division also delivered another solid year. Adjusted Ebitda rose to €138mn from €106mn, marking a third consecutive annual improvement. Deliveries increased 6pc to 395,000t, supported by stronger external demand and lower variable costs. Therefore, ferro-chrome earnings remain one of the company’s most reliable profit supports.

Outokumpu also continues to position itself for a lower-carbon future. The company confirmed a $45mn investment in a US pilot plant for low-CO₂ chromium metal and enriched ferro-chrome technology. Management also believes CBAM could improve its relative competitiveness because of its lower carbon footprint. However, management still says demand in Europe and North America remains subdued and recovery evidence is limited.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Outokumpu’s results show a familiar European steel problem: cost actions and regulation can help, but weak demand and price pressure still dominate the near term. The stronger Americas and ferro-chrome divisions give the company breathing room, yet Europe remains the business that will decide whether recovery becomes real in 2026.

Europe Rare Earth Prices Hold Steady as China’s NdPr Market Softens

Rare Earth mining

Europe rare earth prices held broadly steady this week as tight heavy rare earth availability offset weakness in China’s neodymium and praseodymium market. Delivered European prices for light rare earths showed little movement, while prompt supply of restricted heavy rare earths remained extremely limited.

Europe rare earth prices are now being shaped by two different market structures. Light rare earths are tracking weaker Chinese sentiment more closely, but European demand remains modest and supply is sufficient. Heavy rare earths are trading under export-control pressure, with buyers outside China paying steep premiums for prompt material.

Europe rare earth prices therefore show a widening split between ordinary demand softness and strategic scarcity. The market is not moving as one rare earth complex. It is separating by licensing access, material origin, availability and end-use urgency.

Light Rare Earths Stay Flat Despite Chinese Market Drop

European delivered neodymium oxide prices remained steady at $115-130/kg cif Europe. Neodymium metal also held at $145-160/kg cif.

Praseodymium oxide stayed unchanged at $115-130/kg cif Europe, while praseodymium-neodymium oxide held at $110-115/kg cif. The stability came despite a sharp decline in China’s NdPr complex.

Chinese traders have been destocking ahead of the 1-5 May Labour Day holiday, expecting weaker domestic end-user demand. Several oxide producers suspended spot offers to assess market direction.

European prices did not follow the Chinese decline because regional spot demand remains limited. Delivered European prices are already below Chinese values on average, supported by sufficient supply from multiple sources.

Cerium oxide moved slightly higher, with the top end of the range rising to $2.55/kg cif Europe. Demand is being supported by increased use of cerium-based rare earth magnets and higher freight costs for material circulating outside China.

This light rare earth stability suggests that Europe is not facing immediate NdPr scarcity. However, buyers remain cautious because Chinese price movements still influence sentiment and replacement-cost expectations.

Heavy Rare Earths Remain Tight Under Export Controls

Heavy rare earth availability remains the main pressure point in Europe. Delivered prices for dysprosium oxide were unchanged at $1,000-1,200/kg cif Europe, while terbium oxide held at $3,800-4,500/kg cif.

Spot liquidity has been thin since the start of the year. Prompt availability outside China remains very tight, especially for buyers without export licences.

China’s export controls continue to reshape heavy rare earth pricing. End-users that cannot access licensed Chinese supply are still willing to pay steep premiums to secure material for magnets, defence systems, electronics and advanced manufacturing.

Japanese buying interest has added more pressure since Japan became subject to stricter export controls in January. This has increased competition for limited non-China prompt supply.

The same pattern is visible in gadolinium and yttrium. Gadolinium oxide remained at $700-1,200/kg cif Europe, while yttrium oxide held at $800-1,200/kg cif Europe.

These markets are no longer priced only by Chinese domestic fundamentals. They are being priced by export-control access, available inventories and the cost of avoiding production disruption.

For European buyers, the practical issue is security of supply. Even if Chinese domestic prices soften, restricted material outside China can remain expensive because availability is controlled by licensing and logistics.

The result is a rare earth market where light rare earths may soften with Chinese demand, while heavy rare earths retain a strategic premium. That premium is likely to persist as long as export controls limit access to dysprosium, terbium, gadolinium and yttrium.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s rare earth market is becoming increasingly divided between price-led light rare earths and security-led heavy rare earths. China’s NdPr weakness matters, but export-control pressure on dysprosium, terbium, gadolinium and yttrium is now the stronger strategic signal.

Europe Yttrium Oxide Prices Surge on China Export Controls

Yttrium Oxide

Europe yttrium oxide prices have surged as export controls from China choke heavy rare earth supply and tighten available spot units. Europe yttrium oxide prices jumped again this week, with buyers forced to pay sharply higher levels for scarce cargoes into the Atlantic market. However, prices for other rare earth products in Europe moved only slightly, reflecting more balanced conditions in the neodymium and praseodymium complex. Europe yttrium oxide prices now highlight how vulnerable regional supply chains remain to policy shifts in China’s rare earth sector.

Yttrium Shortage Exposes Heavy Rare Earth Risk

The latest rally in Europe yttrium oxide prices stems from an acute supply shortage outside China as export licences remain constrained. Assessments for 99.999pc yttrium oxide rose sharply to $150-200/kg cif Europe, up strongly from last week’s range. Some market participants report even higher Europe yttrium oxide prices above $200/kg in isolated critical-need spot deals, although volumes are limited. However, overall spot liquidity is thin as many enquiries for yttrium oxide and yttrium metal go unfilled because suppliers cannot secure material. Traders continue to struggle with Chinese export licences for restricted heavy rare earth products, with applications facing close scrutiny and long delays. In the absence of fresh stock, European buyers must rely on existing inventories, making a near-term correction in yttrium prices unlikely. Other heavy rare earths, including dysprosium and terbium oxides, remain price-stable but still trade at elevated levels by historical standards.

Light and Heavy Rare Earths Diverge Across Europe

Light rare earths tell a different story, with sentiment turning slightly more bearish in China on supply and demand shifts. Neodymium and praseodymium prices softened as Chinese magnet plants slowed restocking and ore availability increased under the second 2025 mining quota. This weaker tone has filtered into Europe, trimming delivered prices for certain neodymium and praseodymium oxide and metal products. Even so, spreads between oxide and metal remain steady, reflecting solid but not overheated demand from key magnet applications. Erbium oxide prices in Europe held steady but sit well above equivalent Chinese levels amid ongoing export and customs frictions. Fresh erbium shipments continue to face port delays in China as authorities check impurities and trace restricted heavy rare earths. These checks add friction to international trade flows and reinforce the premium that European buyers must pay for secure supply. As a result, buyers and traders are reassessing sourcing strategies, inventory policies and long-term contracts to manage future rare earth disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s yttrium spike is a textbook example of how targeted export controls can weaponise narrow heavy rare earth supply chains. For end-users, the lesson is clear: diversify heavy rare earth sourcing, lock in strategic contracts and build working inventories before the next policy shock. For project developers, today’s prices strengthen the case for non-Chinese heavy rare earth capacity, but investors will demand durable policy visibility and long-term demand signals.

EPCG divests Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe stake as Jindal bid reshapes future

Thyssenkrupp

Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe stake negotiations have shifted sharply as EPCG exits and Jindal emerges as the preferred partner. The Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe stake will now likely anchor a new strategic direction focused on low-emission steel. As a result, the evolving ownership of the Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe stake will influence Europe’s decarbonisation trajectory and regional steel competition.

EPCG steps aside to clear path for Jindal Steel

EPCG agreed to divest its 20pc holding in Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe and withdraw from all joint-venture talks. The investment firm will return its Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe stake and receive full reimbursement of the purchase price. This move reflects Thyssenkrupp’s decision to concentrate negotiations on a single strategic bidder.

Previously, EPCG had planned to lift its stake from 20pc to 50pc and form a 50:50 joint venture. However, the situation changed once Indian producer Jindal Steel submitted an indicative bid for the business. Therefore, Thyssenkrupp is now prioritising a potential deal that couples ownership change with major green-steel investment.

Jindal promises decarbonised steel platform in Europe

Jindal Steel’s bid includes a commitment to complete the DRI project in Duisburg and add new EAF capacity. The group has signalled a financial commitment of more than €2bn to build this low-emission production base. Although the offer remains non-binding, Jindal says it aims to transform the company into Europe’s largest integrated low-emission steelmaker.

This pathway would align Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe with EU decarbonisation policy and future carbon cost pressures. At the same time, Thyssenkrupp is also exploring the sale of its 50pc stake in HKM, further reshaping its steel portfolio. Together, these moves point to a deep restructuring of German steel assets and ownership.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This pivot from EPCG to Jindal underlines how strategic buyers now link ownership with decarbonisation capital. For European steel, the key question is whether promised DRI and EAF investments materialise fast enough to preserve competitiveness. If executed, Jindal’s plan could turn Thyssenkrupp into a flagship low-emission hub, but integration and policy risks remain significant.

Metlen Gallium Production Marks a Strategic Step for European Supply

Metlen

Metlen gallium production marks an important strategic shift in Europe’s critical minerals landscape. The Greek company has produced gallium for the first time at its Agios Nikolaos plant as a by-product of bauxite processing. The initial 5kg volume is small, but the significance is far larger than the tonnage. As a result, Metlen gallium production has become an early sign that Europe is trying to rebuild domestic gallium capability.

This development matters because European gallium supply has remained heavily exposed to China for years. Europe has lacked commercial-scale primary gallium production since 2016. Meanwhile, China’s export controls have tightened the market and increased supply anxiety across high-tech sectors. Therefore, gallium production in Greece is emerging as a strategically important industrial response.

The project also stands out because it is linked to an existing industrial base. Metlen is not building a stand-alone concept without feedstock. It is extracting gallium from bauxite processing at an operating site. Consequently, Metlen gallium production benefits from stronger industrial logic than a purely greenfield critical minerals project.

European Gallium Supply Could Gain a Rare New Domestic Anchor

European gallium supply could gain a much-needed domestic anchor if Metlen executes its ramp-up successfully. The company plans to continue increasing output through 2026, with a further 5-10t expected in 2027. It then aims to reach 50 t/yr by 2028. That would make Greece one of the largest gallium suppliers outside China.

The scale of that future output is highly significant for Europe. Metlen has indicated that full-capacity production could cover all European gallium imports. That would not only improve supply security. It would also give Europe more leverage in a critical material tied to semiconductors, electronics, and defense-related technologies. Therefore, European gallium supply may finally be moving from dependence toward limited strategic resilience.

The timing also strengthens the project’s relevance. China’s gallium export controls since 2023 have helped squeeze global availability and lift prices. Buyers now understand that niche metals can quickly become geopolitical chokepoints. As a result, even relatively small western gallium projects now carry outsized strategic value.

Gallium Production in Greece Shows How Europe May Rebuild Critical Minerals Capacity

Gallium production in Greece also shows a practical model for Europe’s broader critical minerals strategy. Instead of relying only on new mining projects, Europe can extract value from existing refining and processing chains. That approach may be faster, less capital-intensive, and easier to integrate into current industrial systems. Meanwhile, it can still strengthen supply chain security in meaningful ways.

Financial backing reinforces that strategic direction. The European Investment Bank has approved €90mn in financing for the project, including bauxite mining modernization and the new gallium facility. That support suggests Europe is willing to fund targeted projects that improve industrial sovereignty. Consequently, Metlen gallium production is becoming more than a company milestone. It is also a policy signal.

The broader lesson is clear for metals markets. Critical minerals security is no longer just about owning reserves. It is about processing capability, by-product recovery, and industrial coordination. Therefore, gallium production in Greece may become a template for how Europe rebuilds selected materials capacity under geopolitical pressure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This is a small-volume development with large strategic implications. Gallium may be a niche metal, but its supply concentration has made it highly important. If Metlen reaches scale, Europe will have proven that by-product recovery can become a credible tool in critical minerals strategy.

Europe Faces Deindustrialization Crisis Amidst Unfair Competition and Policy Struggles

Aperam

Europe’s stainless steel industry is at a critical crossroads, facing existential challenges due to high raw material costs and increasing competition from Asian producers. According to Timoteo di Maulo, CEO of Aperam, the European sector is particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on more expensive, environmentally-friendly processes, while Asian producers benefit from cheaper, carbon-intensive nickel pig iron (NPI). Speaking at the SMR International and Special Steels Conference in Rome, di Maulo warned, “Europe will die if it cannot create a level playing field,” likening the current situation to playing European football against American football, a game neither possible nor fair.

Stainless Steel Demand Decline and Unequal Standards

Market data from SMR revealed that real stainless steel demand in Europe is expected to fall by 6% in 2024, following a decline of 3% in 2022 and 8% in 2023. The gap in production methods between Europe and Asian competitors is widening, as Indian and Chinese producers are not required to use high scrap ratios, giving them a distinct cost advantage. European steelmakers, driven by stringent EU decarbonization policies, are forced to use higher-priced scrap, further straining the industry's competitiveness.

Di Maulo emphasized that while both Europe and Asia rely on ferro-nickel and NPI, European producers face additional financial burdens that threaten the industry’s long-term viability. The decarbonization measures that Europe imposes on its steelmakers are not mirrored in Asia, where efforts to reduce carbon emissions fall short of European standards.

The situation is compounded by the upcoming European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), set to take effect in 2026. Di Maulo described CBAM as an experimental policy that risks accelerating deindustrialization by limiting raw material imports while incentivizing the import of finished goods. Other industry leaders echoed these concerns, warning that CBAM, conceived as a tax but transformed into a green policy tool, is impractical and will further weaken Europe's position in global trade.

Industry Leaders Call for Pragmatic Solutions

At the same conference, Indian producer Jindal Stainless highlighted India’s dependence on NPI due to rapid industrial growth and a shortage of scrap metal. Ratan Jindal, chairman of the company, pointed out that proposed restrictions on scrap imports, such as the EU Waste Shipment Regulation, will only exacerbate this issue.

The consensus among European stainless steel executives is that CBAM, as it currently stands, is deeply flawed. Spanish producer Acerinox’s CEO, Bernardo Velazquez, stressed the difficulty of applying CBAM uniformly across Europe due to differing national tax systems. Italian steelmaker Marcegaglia’s CEO, Antonio Marcegaglia, criticized CBAM for being limited to early stages of the production cycle and for failing to address the broader economic realities of the stainless steel industry. Dimitri Menecali of Arvedi AST added that without addressing Scope 3 emissions—those created further down the supply chain—CBAM would not effectively promote sustainability.

The industry is calling for more coordinated policies and international alliances to ensure Europe's stainless steel sector remains competitive. As di Maulo stated, “There is a role for industrialization in Europe, in innovation, high performance, and service-oriented materials.”

EU EV Transition Faces Energy Cost and Trade Policy Pressure

EU energy

EU EV transition plans are facing growing pressure from high energy costs, tougher global competition and a regulatory model that industry leaders say may be weakening Europe’s automotive position. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car Summit warned that Europe must rethink how it competes with China and other industrial economies.

EU EV transition policy has relied heavily on regulation, including the planned 2035 phase-out of new internal combustion engine car sales. But carmakers and suppliers argue that regulation alone cannot deliver a competitive electric vehicle industry if energy prices, subsidies and supply-chain costs remain unfavourable.

EU EV transition challenges are becoming more visible as Chinese automakers gain share in Europe, southeast Asia and Latin America. Chinese producers have built cost-competitive EV platforms through subsidies, domestic competition, supply-chain control and fast industrial scaling.

The debate matters for metals because slower or more expensive electrification can reshape demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnets. Automotive materials demand will still grow, but the path may become less direct and more exposed to policy choices.

China’s EV Scale Forces Europe to Rethink Trade Strategy

European automotive suppliers are calling for a more realistic approach to global competition. The industry is facing rivals that operate under different labour, subsidy and industrial policy conditions.

China has become one of the world’s strongest EV exporters. It accounted for around 40% of global EV exports in 2024, while leading Chinese brands have expanded aggressively with lower-cost, technology-rich vehicles.

This creates a competitive problem for European carmakers. Europe has focused on setting strict emissions targets, while China has focused on making EVs cheaper, scalable and export-ready.

Several industry executives now argue that collaboration may become unavoidable. Western manufacturers may need to partner with Chinese or other international competitors that already have a technological lead in EV platforms, batteries, software and power electronics.

This could change European supply chains. Rather than developing every technology internally, carmakers may increasingly combine European assembly and branding with externally sourced EV systems.

That strategy could support faster electrification, but it also creates dependence on imported components, battery materials and processed inputs. It may help automakers compete on cost, but it does not solve Europe’s strategic materials vulnerability.

Energy Costs Could Slow Consumer Adoption and Metals Demand

High charging and energy costs are another major barrier to Europe’s EV push. If consumers face much higher charging costs than drivers in China or other regions, the economic case for EV adoption weakens.

This is critical because EV demand is highly sensitive to total ownership cost. Batteries may become cheaper, but charging costs, highway tariffs and energy price volatility can still shape consumer decisions.

For battery metals, this matters directly. Slower EV adoption would reduce the speed of demand growth for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese, especially in full battery electric vehicles with large battery packs.

Copper and aluminium remain better positioned across multiple automotive pathways. EVs require copper for wiring, motors, charging systems and power electronics, while aluminium supports lightweighting, battery enclosures and structural components.

However, Europe’s automotive metals demand will increasingly depend on which technology mix wins. Full BEVs support larger battery metals demand, while hybrids and lower-cost EV platforms could shift consumption toward smaller batteries, more electronics and continued use of conventional automotive materials.

The policy challenge is therefore industrial as much as environmental. Europe must reduce emissions while keeping manufacturing competitive, securing raw materials and lowering energy costs for consumers.

If Europe cannot align regulation, energy prices and trade strategy, its EV transition could become a market for imported vehicles rather than a platform for domestic industrial growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s EV problem is not only about regulation or consumer demand. It is about whether the region can build a cost-competitive industrial system around energy, materials, technology and trade before Chinese EV platforms define the market.

Finland Sokli Phosphate Project Gains State Backing as Europe Seeks Raw Materials Security

Finnish Minerals Group

The Finland Sokli phosphate project has gained new momentum after the Finnish government approved a €65mn investment in Finnish Minerals Group. The funding will support the next development phase of the Sokli deposit in Savukoski. Phosphate is the main target, but rare earths also add strategic value. As a result, the Finland Sokli phosphate project is becoming more important to Europe raw materials security.

This matters because Sokli is not only a national mining project. The deposit could cover up to one fifth of EU phosphate demand if it moves into production. That gives Finland a stronger potential role in Europe’s fertilizer and strategic minerals base. Therefore, the Finland Sokli phosphate project now carries significance well beyond Finland.

The government will use the funding for a feasibility study running from 2026 to 2028. The work will include a pilot mine and a pilot concentrator. Meanwhile, the project will also assess the potential for vermiculite, niobium, and rare earth production. Consequently, the Sokli rare earth project is being framed as a multi-mineral industrial asset.

Sokli Rare Earth Project Expands the Strategic Case

The Sokli rare earth project strengthens the wider case for development because it adds strategic minerals to a phosphate-led deposit. Europe wants more secure access to raw materials that support industry, fertilizers, and advanced manufacturing. Rare earths help make Sokli more relevant to that agenda. As a result, the Sokli rare earth project could gain attention beyond traditional mining investors.

The development timeline is still early, but it is moving forward. The government said phosphate and iron concentrates production could begin between 2027 and 2029. That target will depend on study results, permitting, and pilot work. However, state support gives the project more credibility than before.

Finnish Minerals Group will also begin an environmental impact assessment in 2026. That step starts the environmental permitting process and gives the project a clearer regulatory path. Meanwhile, Sokli has already applied for a pilot operations permit, with a decision expected in summer 2026. Therefore, the Finland Sokli phosphate project is now entering a more serious execution stage.

Europe Raw Materials Security Gives Sokli Wider Relevance

Europe raw materials security is the bigger reason Sokli matters now. The EU is pushing to strengthen supply chains for critical and strategic minerals across the bloc. Finland wants Sokli to fit directly into that policy direction. As a result, the project is being positioned as both an industrial and geopolitical asset.

Sokli Oy applied in January 2026 for strategic status under the Critical Raw Materials Act. That application reflects the project’s phosphate and rare earth potential. The European Commission has not yet made a decision, but the move shows clear alignment with EU priorities. Therefore, the Finland Sokli phosphate project may become part of a broader European supply chain strategy.

The wider industrial logic is straightforward. Europe needs more domestic and regional sources of key raw materials. Projects like Sokli can reduce import dependence while creating new processing and mining capacity inside the bloc. Consequently, Finland is trying to move Sokli from geological potential to strategic industrial relevance.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sokli matters because it combines phosphate scale with rare earth optionality at a time when Europe wants both supply security and industrial depth. The real test now is execution. If Finland can move the project through pilot work and permitting, Sokli could become one of the more important multi-mineral developments in northern Europe.

EIB to invest €90mn in Metlen gallium plant to rebuild Europe’s supply

Metlen gallium

EIB to invest €90mn in Metlen gallium plant as Europe pushes to secure critical minerals. The financing supports a new gallium facility in central Greece. As a result, EIB to invest €90mn in Metlen gallium plant signals faster EU-backed industrial reshoring.

Metlen will modernize bauxite mining and add gallium recovery as a by-product of processing. Meanwhile, the project targets commercial-scale output outside China. EIB to invest €90mn in Metlen gallium plant also strengthens the aluminium value chain in Europe.

Europe restarts gallium production after years of dependence

Europe has lacked commercial-scale gallium production since 2016. Germany and Hungary previously supplied the market from bauxite by-products. However, Europe now relies heavily on imports for semiconductor and defense applications.
China tightened gallium exports in 2023 under new controls. Therefore, buyers faced tighter availability and higher procurement risk. Prices rose sharply as supply flexibility narrowed.

What 50 t/yr gallium means for semiconductors and defense

Metlen plans to reach up to 50 t/yr of gallium by 2028. This volume could cover Europe’s current import needs. As a result, chipmakers and advanced materials users gain a nearer supply option.

Gallium supports high-performance semiconductors such as GaN and other critical technologies. Meanwhile, defense and energy transition demand increases scrutiny on supply security. The project must still execute on ramp-up, recovery yields, and operating stability.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe is moving from policy talk to industrial capacity in gallium. However, the market will judge this project on ramp reliability and cost discipline. If Metlen delivers, Europe gains leverage in a tightly controlled metal.

Indian Stainless Seamless Tube Exports Set to Stay Resilient in EU Market

Stainless Tube

Indian stainless seamless tube exports to Europe are expected to remain resilient despite tighter EU safeguard quotas and rising carbon compliance costs. European buyers continue to depend on imported material in product categories where regional stainless seamless tube capacity remains insufficient.

Indian stainless seamless tube exports are being tested by two forces at once. Europe is tightening trade protection and carbon policy, while India is expanding production capacity to serve both export and domestic industrial demand.

The result is not a simple import slowdown. Instead, the European market is likely to become more selective, with buyers continuing to source from India where local supply cannot meet technical, volume or cost requirements.

Speakers at SMR’s Stainless Steel Tube and Pipe Market Insights Day in Dusseldorf said EU safeguard quotas and the carbon border adjustment mechanism will raise costs. However, they said these measures will not remove Europe’s structural need for non-EU seamless tube supply.

EU Supply Gaps Keep Indian Tube Imports Viable

European stainless seamless tube buyers are not abandoning overseas suppliers because domestic mills cannot fully cover demand across all product segments. This is especially true in applications requiring specific sizes, grades, delivery windows or fabrication-linked supply.

Venus Europe managing director Stefan Muller-Bernhardt said price increases in Europe are being driven more by policy measures and cost inflation than by genuine shortages caused by lower imports. This distinction matters because trade measures may raise landed costs without creating enough domestic capacity to replace imports.

Ratnamani Metals and Tubes stainless steel division head MS Randhawa said imports will remain viable where demand exceeds regional supply. Even when buyers face higher tariffs and compliance costs, the need for material can outweigh the added expense.

This is particularly relevant for seamless tubes used in export-oriented fabrication. Products tied to heat exchangers, pressure vessels and engineered systems may still require imported tube input if European supply is limited or too expensive.

CBAM adds another layer of uncertainty. Importers will need to manage emissions reporting, verification and future carbon costs. But the mechanism is unlikely to eliminate Indian stainless seamless tube exports where Europe lacks sufficient domestic alternatives.

Safeguard quotas will have a more direct commercial effect. Tighter quotas can restrict volume flexibility and raise the risk of duty exposure. However, buyers with technical dependence on imports may continue purchasing Indian material even at higher cost.

This creates a more disciplined import market. Indian suppliers that can offer consistent quality, compliance documentation and reliable delivery will be better positioned than low-cost exporters with weaker transparency.

For European buyers, the key issue is not whether imports become more expensive. It is whether domestic producers can replace the material. In many seamless tube categories, the answer remains uncertain.

Indian Capacity Growth and Process Routes Reshape Competition

India’s stainless seamless tube industry is expanding rapidly, but speakers said this should not be viewed only as export pressure on Europe. Indian producers are also adding capacity to serve fast-growing domestic demand.

India’s refining, power, fertiliser, semiconductor, defence and industrial sectors are all increasing stainless seamless tube consumption. These applications require corrosion resistance, pressure integrity and reliable mechanical performance.

India also has low per-capita stainless steel consumption, leaving substantial room for long-term domestic growth. As industrialisation continues, local tube demand should absorb part of the new capacity being added by Indian producers.

Still, exports will remain attractive. Overseas markets often offer larger order volumes, better price realisation and more diversified customer bases. Europe will therefore remain important, even as Indian domestic demand strengthens.

The market is also seeing a technical divide between production routes. Rotary piercing is gaining share because of lower costs and improving process technology. This route is becoming more competitive in mainstream seamless tube applications.

Hot extrusion remains important for more demanding segments. Aerospace, defence, nuclear and nickel alloy applications still require higher-end processing, tighter quality control and stronger technical assurance.

The two production routes are unlikely to converge into one dominant model. Rotary piercing will likely serve broader volume demand, while hot extrusion will remain positioned in premium and technically demanding markets.

This divide matters for Europe. Buyers may use Indian piercing-based supply for standard industrial applications, while relying on hot-extruded material for more critical service conditions.

Indian stainless seamless tube exports will therefore become more segmented. The market will differentiate between commodity-grade volume, engineered stainless products and high-specification alloy tubes.

For Indian producers, the opportunity is clear. Companies that can serve both cost-sensitive mainstream demand and higher-specification industrial applications will be better placed to withstand EU policy pressure.

For Europe, the challenge is also clear. Trade controls and CBAM may protect local producers, but they cannot immediately create missing capacity in specialized seamless tube categories.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU’s policy direction will raise the cost of Indian stainless seamless tube exports, but it will not remove Europe’s import dependence. The stronger long-term shift is segmentation: lower-cost piercing will serve volume demand, while hot extrusion will defend premium industrial applications.

China EU Dual-Use Export Controls Raise Rare Earth Supply Risk for Europe

China EU

China EU dual-use export controls have escalated after Beijing added seven military-related European entities to its export control list. The move signals a sharper trade dispute between China and the EU and could increase uncertainty around rare earths and critical metals supply to Europe.

China EU dual-use export controls prohibit domestic exporters from supplying listed entities with controlled dual-use goods, technologies and services. Overseas organisations and individuals are also barred from transferring Chinese-origin dual-use items to those entities.

China EU dual-use export controls are significant because rare earths, tungsten, antimony, germanium and gallium have all gained stronger military and strategic relevance. Many of these materials are already covered by China’s dual-use export control framework.

The targeted entities include defence, aerospace and military-linked companies in Europe. Beijing said the companies had engaged in arms sales to Taiwan or had links with Taiwan-related activity.

Rare Earths and Critical Metals Become Trade Policy Tools

China’s decision marks the first time Beijing has imposed dual-use export restrictions specifically targeting EU entities. It shows that critical materials policy is increasingly being used as a geopolitical instrument.

The move follows growing friction between China and the EU, including disputes around cybersecurity rules and alleged discriminatory treatment of Chinese companies. Beijing has warned that it could take broader countermeasures if Chinese firms continue to face restrictions.

This matters for Europe because the region remains a major buyer of Chinese rare earths and critical minerals. The Netherlands, Italy, France and Spain all received rare earth shipments from China in the first quarter.

Rare earths are essential for permanent magnets, electric motors, wind turbines, robotics, defence systems, aerospace components and precision electronics. Heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium are especially important for high-performance magnets used in demanding operating environments.

Other controlled critical metals also carry strategic weight. Tungsten is used in hard metals, defence systems and high-temperature applications. Antimony supports flame retardants, ammunition and alloys. Germanium and gallium are critical for semiconductors, optics, satellites and power electronics.

China’s use of export controls has become more systematic. Beijing has already tightened critical minerals exports to Japan this year, which disrupted shipments of dysprosium and terbium and forced buyers to seek alternative supply.

Europe Faces Higher Security Premiums for Heavy Rare Earths

Europe’s immediate risk is not a full loss of Chinese supply. The more likely impact is higher compliance risk, licensing uncertainty and greater pressure on buyers that need controlled materials for defence, aerospace and advanced manufacturing.

This could widen the security premium for non-China rare earths and minor metals. Buyers without reliable export licences may need to pay more for material available in the Atlantic market.

Heavy rare earth prices outside China have already surged because of tight availability and stronger Japanese buying. Yttrium oxide prices in Europe have climbed sharply this year, reflecting the scarcity of prompt non-China supply.

If EU-China tensions continue, European buyers may accelerate efforts to diversify supply. That could benefit projects in Australia, Brazil, Estonia, the US and other jurisdictions trying to build rare earth separation, metal-making and magnet capacity outside China.

However, diversification will not be quick. Rare earth supply chains require mining, separation, refining, metal conversion, alloying and magnet manufacturing. Each stage needs qualification, capital and technical expertise.

For European manufacturers, the policy signal is clear. Critical metals procurement can no longer rely only on price and delivery time. Buyers must now evaluate origin risk, licensing exposure, dual-use classification and strategic inventory needs.

The broader market implication is that China’s critical minerals controls are becoming a routine part of trade policy. Europe must now treat rare earths and minor metals as supply-chain security issues, not just raw material inputs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s latest export control move shows that rare earths and minor metals are becoming geopolitical leverage points. Europe’s challenge is no longer just finding alternative supply, but building a complete industrial chain that can survive licensing shocks.

Vulcan Lithium Hydroxide Project Advances as German Construction Begins

Vulcan Lithium

Vulcan lithium hydroxide project development has moved into major construction in Germany, marking a key step for Europe’s domestic battery materials supply chain. Australian-listed Vulcan Energy has started building its 24,000 t/yr Lionheart lithium hydroxide project in the German state of Hesse.

The Vulcan lithium hydroxide project is scheduled to produce first output in 2028. The construction start follows Vulcan’s receipt of a six-year commercial production licence for the facility in March.

The Vulcan lithium hydroxide project is strategically important because Europe remains heavily dependent on imported lithium chemicals for battery manufacturing. Local lithium hydroxide production could support electric vehicle, battery cell and cathode supply chains across the region.

Vulcan plans to produce battery-quality lithium from low-impurity geothermal subsurface brines. The company will use direct lithium extraction technology, linking lithium production with geothermal resource development in the Upper Rhine Valley.

Geothermal Brines Support Europe’s Local Lithium Strategy

The Lionheart project is part of Europe’s broader effort to build domestic critical minerals capacity. Lithium hydroxide is a key input for high-nickel cathode chemistries used in electric vehicle batteries.

Vulcan’s route is different from conventional hard-rock lithium mining or evaporation pond production. The company plans to extract lithium from geothermal brines, then process it into battery-quality lithium hydroxide.

This matters because direct lithium extraction can reduce land use and accelerate processing compared with traditional evaporation routes. However, DLE projects still face technical and commercial execution risk because each brine system has different chemistry and operating requirements.

Construction of the surface extraction plant at Landau in the Upper Rhine Valley began in February. This upstream extraction work is critical because the lithium hydroxide plant depends on reliable brine supply and stable lithium recovery.

The project’s low-impurity geothermal brine base could give Vulcan a useful advantage if it can scale the process reliably. Battery customers require consistent quality, traceability and long-term supply security.

Public Funding Highlights Strategic Battery Materials Push

The Lionheart project received around €104mn in funding from Germany’s federal government and the states of Rhineland-Palatinate and Hesse last year. This public support shows how lithium processing has become an industrial policy priority in Europe.

Germany has a major automotive industry and is expanding battery manufacturing capacity. Domestic lithium hydroxide production could reduce exposure to overseas conversion hubs and strengthen regional supply resilience.

The project also fits Europe’s push to localise more of the battery value chain. Mining or extraction alone is not enough. Europe needs lithium chemicals, cathode materials, battery cells, recycling and downstream qualification with automakers.

Vulcan’s 24,000 t/yr planned capacity would not satisfy Europe’s full lithium demand. However, it could become a meaningful regional source if production starts as planned in 2028.

The next challenge is execution. Vulcan must complete construction, prove DLE performance, operate the geothermal brine system and qualify lithium hydroxide with battery customers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vulcan’s construction start shows that Europe’s battery supply-chain strategy is moving from policy ambition to industrial buildout. The project’s success will depend on whether geothermal brine extraction and lithium hydroxide conversion can scale reliably enough to meet automotive-grade standards.

Amag Aluminium Loan Strengthens Europe’s Push for Advanced Aluminium Manufacturing

Amag Aluminium

Amag aluminium loan financing from the European Investment Bank will support new research, digitalisation, and sustainable manufacturing in Austria’s downstream aluminium sector. The €75mn loan gives Amag fresh capital to develop higher-value aluminium products while improving the environmental performance of its Upper Austria production base.

The financing marks the first EIB loan in Austria under the TechEU programme. That matters because the programme is designed to accelerate European innovation in strategic industries. For aluminium, this support comes as Europe seeks more resilient supply chains for materials used in transport, packaging, energy infrastructure, and net-zero technologies.

Amag plans to use the loan as part of a wider research investment programme expected to reach €168mn between 2025 and 2028. The Amag aluminium loan therefore supports more than one company’s balance sheet. It also reflects Europe’s effort to protect industrial capability in a sector exposed to energy costs, import competition, and decarbonisation pressure.

EIB Financing Supports Aluminium R&D and Digitalisation

The EIB financing will help Amag develop advanced aluminium products and modernise manufacturing processes. This is important because downstream aluminium producers increasingly compete on alloy performance, process efficiency, traceability, and carbon footprint rather than volume alone.

Digitalisation will likely play a central role in that competitiveness. Aluminium rolling, casting, recycling, and finishing operations depend on tight process control. Better data systems can improve yield, reduce waste, and support more consistent product quality for demanding customers in automotive, aerospace, industrial, and energy transition markets.

The Amag aluminium loan also highlights how public financing is becoming more closely tied to industrial technology. Europe is trying to support companies that can upgrade manufacturing while meeting stricter sustainability requirements. For aluminium producers, that means combining product innovation with lower-emission operations.

Critical Raw Materials Policy Raises Aluminium’s Strategic Role

The loan also aligns with the European Critical Raw Materials Act. Although aluminium is widely traded, Europe increasingly treats it as a strategic material because it underpins net-zero technologies, lightweight transport, power infrastructure, and manufacturing resilience.

This policy connection is significant for downstream producers. Europe does not only need raw metal supply. It also needs domestic capacity to convert aluminium into advanced products that meet industrial and environmental standards. Companies such as Amag sit in that critical middle layer between raw material supply and finished manufacturing.

The EIB’s support therefore strengthens Europe’s aluminium value chain at a time when industrial policy is becoming more active. As global competition intensifies, financing for research and sustainable production can help European producers defend higher-value market positions and reduce dependence on imported materials and technologies.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Amag aluminium loan shows how Europe is using finance as an industrial policy tool. The bigger message is clear: aluminium competitiveness will depend on innovation, low-carbon production, and control over strategic manufacturing capacity.

Thyssenkrupp Steel Restructuring Deepens as Losses Hit First-Quarter Results

Thyssenkrupp

Thyssenkrupp steel restructuring has moved into a more expensive and more decisive phase. The German steelmaker reported a €334mn net loss in the first quarter of its 2025-26 financial year. Most of that damage came from €401mn in restructuring expenses tied to Steel Europe. As a result, Thyssenkrupp steel restructuring is now shaping both earnings and the company’s future direction.

The latest loss matters because it reflects more than weak market conditions. Thyssenkrupp linked the restructuring costs to its collective agreement with IG Metall reached in December 2025. That agreement followed a period of lower prices and weaker shipments. Therefore, Thyssenkrupp steel restructuring is now moving from planning into full financial impact.

Steel Europe’s operating backdrop remains difficult. Sales in the division fell 10pc year on year to €1.96bn in the October-December quarter. Shipments also slipped 4pc to 1.73mn t. Consequently, weak pricing and soft demand in key end-use sectors are still weighing on Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe.

Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe Faces Weak Demand but Stable Operating Priorities

Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe continues to face pressure from sluggish European steel demand. The company said softer conditions in its main customer industries hurt both pricing and revenue. That remains a central challenge for the business. As a result, Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe is still operating in a market that offers little margin relief.

There were, however, a few areas of stability. Deliveries to automotive customers and steel service centres improved during the quarter. Hot-rolled coil deliveries also rose to 562,000t from both the previous quarter and the same period a year earlier. Therefore, not every volume indicator moved lower inside Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe.

Lower raw material costs and efficiency measures helped offset part of the damage. But they were not enough to reverse the broader earnings pressure. That means cost control is helping, yet not solving the core problem. Meanwhile, European steel demand remains too weak to deliver a meaningful recovery on its own.

Duisburg Direct Reduction Plant and Potential Sale Show Two Paths at Once

The company is now pursuing two major strategic paths at the same time. Thyssenkrupp confirmed confidential negotiations with India’s Jindal Steel International over a possible sale of Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe. Due diligence is already under way. As a result, Thyssenkrupp steel restructuring is no longer only about cost cutting. It is also about ownership change.

At the same time, the group is continuing construction of its Duisburg direct reduction plant. That project is moving ahead despite regulatory uncertainty. The decision suggests Thyssenkrupp still sees green steel investment as part of its long-term industrial future. Therefore, the Duisburg direct reduction plant remains strategically important even as asset sales are considered.

The company also reiterated plans to sell its stake in HKM to Salzgitter from 1 June 2026. It also reminded the market that blast furnace no 9 at Duisburg was shut permanently last October. These moves show a business actively reshaping its production base. Consequently, Thyssenkrupp steel restructuring is now affecting assets, ownership, and technology all at once.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Thyssenkrupp’s quarter shows how hard it is to restructure steel in Europe while demand stays soft and decarbonisation costs keep rising. The most important signal is not the quarterly loss alone. It is that Thyssenkrupp is now redesigning its steel business through labour agreements, asset sales, and lower-carbon investment at the same time.

Europe EV Growth Rises as Incentives Mask Fragile Demand Signals

Europe EV

Europe EV growth accelerated last month as battery electric vehicle sales rose by 41%, supported by tax incentives, fleet buying and carmakers’ efforts to meet emissions targets. The increase looks strong on paper, but the drivers of demand remain uneven across markets.

Battery electric vehicle sales outpaced plug-in hybrid sales, which rose by 32% across the EU, EFTA and UK. Regular hybrid vehicle sales increased by 15%, while petrol and diesel sales continued to decline across major European markets.

Europe EV growth was strongest in large markets such as France, Germany and Italy. Spain again stood out for plug-in hybrid growth, showing that national policy, consumer economics and model availability continue to shape adoption differently.

The headline growth is important for battery metals and automotive supply chains. Higher BEV sales support long-term demand for lithium, nickel, manganese, graphite, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnets.

Incentives and Fleet Orders Drive the Near-Term Recovery

Tax policy remains one of the main engines behind Europe EV growth. Several member states entered the year with revised company car rules, income-linked subsidies or accelerated depreciation schemes for electric vehicles.

These measures have favoured fleet buyers more than private consumers. Corporate fleets can respond faster to tax incentives, depreciation benefits and emissions rules because they buy vehicles in larger volumes and plan replacements more systematically.

France has tightened the link between EV support and income. Germany’s recovery has been supported by targeted incentives reintroduced in January after earlier policy volatility disrupted demand.

This matters because fleet-led growth can be less stable than broad consumer adoption. Fleet orders can lift sales quickly, but private demand is still sensitive to price, charging access, financing costs and residual value concerns.

Carmakers are also working to meet CO₂ limits. This creates another demand driver that is not purely consumer-led. Automakers may use pricing, leasing and fleet channels to push EV registrations when regulatory targets tighten.

For metals markets, the distinction matters. Stable private adoption creates more predictable battery material demand. Incentive-driven fleet demand can be more volatile if policy changes or budget support weakens.

Oil Shock Adds Uncertainty to EV Demand Outlook

Higher oil prices after the US-Iran war have revived the question of whether fuel costs are pushing consumers toward electric vehicles. However, the evidence is not yet clear.

EV demand was already rising in key markets before the oil shock. Early-year growth appears to reflect incentives, fleet orders and emissions compliance more than a direct consumer shift caused by higher fuel costs.

There is also a timing lag. Vehicle orders usually appear in sales data several weeks later, and delivery times vary by model and country. Any clear oil-price effect may not appear until June or July.

This caution is important because monthly EV data can be distorted by local registration patterns. The UK, for example, often sees a March registration spike because of its plate change system.

The broader strategic message remains clear. If Europe wants to reduce exposure to oil shocks, it needs consistent carbon rules, pollution-based taxation, charging infrastructure and long-term industrial policy.

Stop-start subsidies can create temporary sales jumps, but they can also damage market confidence. Stable rules are more useful for automakers, battery producers, charging companies and metals suppliers.

Europe EV growth therefore remains real but fragile. The region is moving away from petrol and diesel, yet the pace still depends heavily on policy design and fleet purchasing behaviour.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe EV growth is not yet a clean demand signal for battery metals because incentives and fleet buying are doing much of the work. The stronger long-term signal will come when private buyers adopt EVs without policy volatility or fuel-price panic.

Metlen Gallium Project Positions Greece as New EU Critical Materials Hub

Metlen Gallium Project

Metlen gallium project approval gives Greece a stronger role in Europe’s effort to build secure supplies of critical raw materials. The Greek industrial group has secured government approval for its strategic investment to develop gallium production alongside expanded bauxite mining and alumina refining.

Metlen gallium project benefits will include grants and tax incentives totalling around €118mn. These incentives come on top of Metlen’s planned €300mn investment in the gallium production project.

Metlen gallium project development is integrated into Aluminium of Greece operations in central Greece. The structure allows gallium to be recovered as a by-product of alumina refining, linking critical minerals supply to an existing aluminium value chain.

The project matters because gallium is essential for semiconductors, defence systems, artificial intelligence applications and photovoltaics. Europe’s dependence on imported gallium has become more exposed since China imposed export controls in 2023.

Gallium Recovery Strengthens Europe’s Midstream Supply

Metlen produced gallium for the first time in January and plans to scale output over the next two years. Production is expected to continue rising in 2026, with an additional 5-10t forecast for 2027.

The company aims to reach full capacity of around 50 t/yr by 2028. At that level, Greece could become one of the largest gallium producers outside China.

The output could also be sufficient to cover current European import requirements. That would make the project strategically important for Europe’s semiconductor, defence and clean technology sectors.

Gallium recovery from alumina refining is especially significant because it adds value to an existing industrial process. Instead of relying only on new mines, Europe can recover critical materials from established aluminium operations.

This approach improves supply-chain efficiency. It also shows how by-products from major metals industries can become strategic feedstocks for advanced manufacturing.

EU Incentives Back Critical Raw Materials Security

The project has been approved under Greece’s Strategic Investments framework. It is also included under the Clean Industrial Deal State Aid Framework, which supports clean energy, industrial decarbonisation and clean technology.

The European Investment Bank has approved €90mn in financing to support the gallium facility and modernisation of upstream bauxite mining. This gives the project both national and EU-level policy support.

The investment aligns with Europe’s effort to reduce dependence on China for critical minerals. China dominates global gallium production, and its export controls have tightened supply and pushed prices higher.

For the EU, the Metlen project provides more than gallium volume. It creates a domestic industrial route from bauxite and alumina into critical semiconductor materials.

That model could become important for other by-product metals. Europe has limited time to build resilient supply chains, so projects connected to existing industrial assets may offer faster results than standalone greenfield developments.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Metlen’s gallium project shows how Europe can turn existing aluminium infrastructure into critical minerals capacity. The strategic lesson is clear: by-product recovery may become one of the fastest routes to reducing dependence on China.

EU presses China on critical mineral export licences as Europe warns of countermeasures

Critical Mineral Mine

EU presses China on critical mineral export licences as European manufacturers confront tighter supply chains. EU presses China on critical mineral export licences to accelerate approvals and reduce stock depletion in Europe. The European Union raised the issue at an industry meeting in Brussels.

Licensing bottlenecks hit defence and tech supply chains

China’s export controls have tightened flows of strategic materials since 2023. China began licensing for gallium and germanium in August 2023, then added antimony in September 2024. European Commission officials say applicants often must share sensitive end-use information.

Fewer licences have translated into lower exports and thinner inventories in Europe. China exported 7,520kg of germanium in January-September, down 71% from 2022. As a result, defence electronics and high-frequency communications face higher procurement risk.

Europe weighs countermeasures and diversification

Brussels is considering countermeasures if licensing delays deepen and disruptions spread. Denis Redonnet said the EU wants China to recalibrate the measures and speed processing. However, officials also frame the controls as a long-run industrial strategy, not a temporary dispute.

Europe is also building a broader response beyond trade policy alone. European Policy Centre chief Fabian Zuleeg said member states keep strong decision power across industry and diplomacy. Meanwhile, Brussels is exploring joint purchasing, stockpiling, and partnerships with non-EU mining countries.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Export licensing has become a front-line risk for Europe’s advanced manufacturing supply chains. Meanwhile, countermeasures will matter most if Europe pairs them with new refining capacity. Therefore, firms should model shortages alongside procurement and compliance requirements.

EU ETS and CBAM Reform Moves to the Center of Europe’s Industrial Debate

EU ETS

EU ETS and CBAM reform has moved to the center of Europe’s industrial debate. European leaders and major industrial executives now want climate policy to protect competitiveness more effectively. They argue that energy costs and carbon costs are putting heavy pressure on manufacturers. As a result, EU ETS and CBAM reform is becoming a core test of Europe’s industrial strategy.

Ursula von der Leyen made the message clear in Antwerp. She said more ETS revenues should flow back into industry instead of remaining underused. EU ETS revenues have exceeded €260bn since 2005, but only a small share has supported industrial decarbonisation. Therefore, EU ETS and CBAM reform is no longer only about emissions policy. It is also about how Europe funds industrial survival and transition.

Industrial leaders are also asking for a harder review of the current ETS design. Cefic’s leadership argued that two decades of ETS policy may have created unintended pressure on European producers. That criticism reflects a wider concern across chemicals, steel, and fertilizers. Consequently, EU industrial competitiveness is now being discussed alongside carbon ambition, not after it.

ETS Revenues for Industry Are Becoming a Main Political Demand

ETS revenues for industry are now one of the clearest demands from business leaders. Companies want a larger share of carbon-market income returned to industrial decarbonisation projects. They argue that this money should help fund cleaner production, not simply disappear into general state budgets. As a result, the summer ETS reform debate could become highly consequential for manufacturers.

This issue matters because European industry is already under cost pressure. Energy prices remain volatile, and carbon costs add another burden to production. If ETS revenues are reinvested more directly, companies may gain more confidence to modernize assets and keep production in Europe. Therefore, ETS revenues for industry could become one of the most practical tools in the reform package.

French president Emmanuel Macron added a similar message from a competitiveness angle. He argued that ETS must support decarbonisation without damaging industry. That framing is important because it shifts the debate from climate policy alone to climate policy design. Meanwhile, it strengthens the case for reforms that are more responsive to industrial reality.

CBAM Certainty Will Matter as Much as CBAM Ambition

CBAM certainty is now just as important as CBAM ambition. Macron said CBAM is necessary if Europe wants to preserve sectors such as steel. However, industry leaders warned that mixed signals from Brussels are creating confusion. That confusion risks weakening trust in the policy before it is fully established.

Yara’s chief executive highlighted that risk directly. He said fertilizer producers faced serious uncertainty after the Commission discussed a possible temporary suspension for some CBAM goods. Even the idea of retroactive change unsettled the market. Therefore, EU ETS and CBAM reform must now address policy stability as well as policy strength.

The wider business message from Antwerp was straightforward. European companies are not asking to avoid the transition. They are asking for competitive conditions that allow them to lead it. Public procurement, private buyer initiatives, and clearer climate rules could all help create that framework. As a result, CBAM certainty may prove just as critical as carbon pricing itself.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe is entering a more difficult phase of climate policy. Setting carbon rules was the first challenge, but making them industrially workable is the next one. If Brussels cannot deliver both stronger support and greater policy clarity, EU ETS and CBAM reform may protect ambition while weakening the industries expected to carry it.

EU CRMA Strategic Projects Delay Raises Questions Over Critical Minerals Execution

the Critical Raw Materials Act

EU CRMA strategic projects are facing a likely delay as Brussels postpones the next batch of designations under the Critical Raw Materials Act. The announcement was initially expected between mid-May and June, but market sources now expect the process to run into autumn.

EU CRMA strategic projects are intended to accelerate domestic and allied supply chains for critical minerals. The strategic label can give projects faster permitting and better access to EU financing.

EU CRMA strategic projects matter because Europe has set ambitious 2030 targets for extraction, processing and recycling. Any delay risks slowing investment decisions at a time when the bloc is trying to reduce dependence on concentrated foreign supply chains.

The European Commission selected 60 projects in the first round across the EU and partner countries. The second round drew 161 applications, showing strong industry interest but also increasing administrative complexity.

Battery and Rare Earth Projects Dominate Applications

The second round of applications shows where Europe’s supply-chain priorities are concentrated. Of the 161 applications, 95 came from inside the EU and 66 from outside.

Battery-related projects dominated the list with 75 applications. This reflects Europe’s continued effort to build supply chains for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, graphite and other battery materials.

Rare earths were another major focus, with 21 applications. These projects are strategically important because Europe remains highly dependent on China for rare earth separation, metals, alloys and permanent magnets.

The strategic label is expected to help selected projects access financing under the Resource Action Plan and benefit from accelerated permitting. That support is important because critical minerals projects face high capital costs, long timelines and uncertain market economics.

However, the delay shows that project selection is not simple. The EU must assess technical readiness, strategic value, permitting status, financing needs, environmental standards and supply-chain contribution.

For developers, uncertainty over designation timing can affect financing discussions, offtake negotiations and investment decisions. A project may be commercially promising, but delays in policy support can slow its path to construction.

Europe’s Raw Materials Targets Face Execution Risk

The CRMA sets clear 2030 goals. The EU wants domestic extraction to cover at least 10% of annual consumption, processing to cover at least 40%, and recycling to cover at least 25%.

These targets are ambitious because Europe has limited mining capacity in several critical minerals and remains weak in key midstream stages. Processing and refining remain the hardest gaps to close.

The first round of strategic projects gave the market a positive signal. But industry participants are now questioning whether the mechanism is delivering meaningful progress quickly enough.

The European Court of Auditors warned in February that the EU risks missing its raw materials targets. It pointed to unclear selection criteria and weak data as major concerns.

Transparency has also become a pressure point. Non-governmental organisations and legal groups have challenged the process, arguing that citizens have not received enough disclosure.

This creates a difficult balance for Brussels. The EU wants to accelerate strategic projects, but it must also maintain public trust, environmental credibility and clear selection standards.

The delay is therefore more than an administrative issue. It tests whether Europe can turn critical minerals policy into bankable industrial capacity before global competition locks up capital, feedstock and customers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The CRMA’s strategic project label is valuable only if it accelerates real investment. Europe has identified the right bottlenecks, but delays in selection and financing risk turning industrial strategy into another slow policy process.