KGHM Copper Production Falls 6% in Q1 Despite Strong Pricing Environment

KGHM

KGHM copper production declined 6% year-over-year to 169,000 tonnes in the first quarter as planned maintenance shutdowns and asset divestments offset operational improvements. The Polish copper producer faced reduced output from planned maintenance at its Glogow II smelter and the February sale of Canada's McCreedy West mine. However, KGHM copper production remained aligned with company budget targets while benefiting from stronger copper prices and diversified sales strategies across global markets.

Polish Operations Maintain Stability Amid Planned Maintenance Activities

KGHM's Polish assets delivered consistent performance with 99,400 tonnes of copper concentrate production and 134,000 tonnes of electrolytic copper output during the quarter. These production levels met company targets despite the scheduled maintenance shutdown at the Glogow II smelter facility. Meanwhile, the company's Polish operations continue serving as the backbone of overall production capacity and revenue generation.

The planned maintenance activities demonstrated KGHM's commitment to operational excellence and long-term asset sustainability. These scheduled shutdowns ensure optimal equipment performance and safety standards across the Polish mining complex. Therefore, the temporary production impact reflects strategic maintenance planning rather than operational challenges or market-driven constraints.

International Assets Show Mixed Performance Across Geographic Regions

Sierra Gorda mine in Chile delivered exceptional performance with 20,800 tonnes of copper production, representing a 22% increase from the previous year. KGHM holds a 55% ownership stake in this strategic Chilean asset, which benefited from higher ore grades and improved recovery rates. As a result, Sierra Gorda's strong performance partially offset production declines from other international operations.

KGHM International assets in North America experienced contrasting results, with production falling 10% to 14,400 tonnes due to strategic portfolio changes. The February sale of Canada's McCreedy West mine removed production capacity while lower recovery rates at the US Robinson mine further reduced output. However, these international operations remain important components of KGHM's geographic diversification strategy.

Revenue performance demonstrated resilience despite lower production volumes, rising 8% to 8.9 billion zlotys ($2.35 billion) through the quarter. The three-month LME copper contract averaged $9,411 per tonne, significantly higher than the $8,537 per tonne recorded in the previous year. Consequently, strong copper pricing compensated for production declines while supporting overall financial performance and investment capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

KGHM's Q1 results highlight the copper industry's current dynamics where strong pricing environments can offset temporary production challenges from maintenance and portfolio optimization. The company's planned 3.8 billion zloty investment program for 2025, focusing on underground development and shaft sinking, positions KGHM for long-term growth despite near-term production volatility from operational and strategic factors.

Rio Tinto’s 3Q Copper and Aluminium Production Declines, Bauxite Output Rises

Rio Tinto’s

Rio Tinto, the UK-Australian mining giant, posted moderate declines in mined copper and primary aluminium production in the third quarter of 2024. However, the company saw overall output growth during the first nine months of the year.

Copper Production Declines Amid Challenges at Key Mines

In the third quarter, Rio Tinto’s mined copper production dropped by 1% year-on-year, reaching 167,800 tonnes. This decline was largely due to a significant 44% decrease at the Kennecott mine in the United States, where geological issues, including ground movement, restricted access to high-grade ore, forcing the use of lower-grade material. However, the company’s Escondida mine in Chile showed a 15% increase in output, driven by higher ore grades, and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia experienced a 19% production boost due to increased operational efficiency.

For the first nine months of 2024, Rio Tinto's mined copper production increased by 8% year-on-year, totalling 494,700 tonnes. Meanwhile, refined copper production surged by 59% in Q3, reaching 54,300 tonnes, thanks to a 129% increase at Kennecott following its smelter and refinery rebuild in the previous quarter. This was partially offset by a 24% drop in Escondida’s refined copper output due to lower ore grades. Overall, Rio Tinto’s refined copper production for January-September was up by 39% to 179,600 tonnes.

Aluminium Production Experiences Setbacks

Rio Tinto's primary aluminium production in Q3 fell by 2% year-on-year to 809,000 tonnes. This also represented a 2% drop from the previous quarter. However, aluminium production for the first nine months of 2024 was up by 1%, totalling 2.46 million tonnes. The decline in Q3 was linked to operational issues at the New Zealand Aluminium Smelters subsidiary, where Meridian Energy halted plans for a 600 MW renewable hydrogen and ammonia project due to economic and logistical challenges. As a result, the company expects to ramp up the smelter at Tiwai Peninsula in New Zealand by the second quarter of 2025.

Rio Tinto is also focusing on sustainability. In August 2024, Rio Tinto entered a partnership with the Queensland state government in Australia to ensure the long-term future of its Boyne smelter by transitioning to renewable energy sources.

Bauxite Production Shows Growth

Bauxite production, another key commodity for Rio Tinto, increased by 8% year-on-year in Q3 to 15.1 million tonnes. This growth was driven by higher utilisation rates at Rio Tinto’s Amrun mine in Weipa, Australia, following the implementation of the company’s Safe Production System in 2021. The system uses data-driven insights to optimize maintenance scheduling and prevent bottlenecking. Total bauxite production for the first nine months of 2024 rose by 9% year-on-year, totalling 43.2 million tonnes.

Outlook for 2024

Looking ahead, Rio Tinto expects to produce between 660,000 and 720,000 tonnes of mined copper and 230,000 to 260,000 tonnes of refined copper for the remainder of 2024, indicating a steady production forecast for the rest of the year despite the challenges faced in Q3.

Vale Sees Rise in Nickel and Copper Output in 3Q Amid Maintenance Challenges

Vale

Brazilian multi-metals mining group Vale reported a year-on-year increase in nickel production for the third quarter of 2024, driven primarily by higher output from its Canadian mines, including Sudbury and Voisey’s Bay. However, the company’s total production for the first nine months of the year was slightly down compared to the same period in 2023, largely due to longer-than-expected maintenance shutdowns at several key mines.

Nickel Production Boosted by Canadian Mines

Vale's nickel production rose by 12% year-on-year, reaching 47,100 tonnes during the July-September period. However, the total production for the first nine months of the year was 4.7% lower than in 2023, with 114,400 tonnes of nickel produced. A significant contributor to the growth was the Sudbury mine, where finished nickel production increased by 84% year-on-year, reaching 12,300 tonnes. This was primarily due to the resumption of smelting and refining operations at Sudbury, following its biennial maintenance shutdown.

In addition, production at Voisey’s Bay saw a significant increase, rising by 56.4% year-on-year to 6,100 tonnes, thanks to higher nickel grades following extended maintenance work. Vale also reported a 55% increase in production from its Thompson mine, which reached 3,100 tonnes.

Challenges and Power Disruption in Brazil

In Brazil, production from the Onça Puma mine increased by 7% to 6,200 tonnes, following a furnace rebuild. However, the mine experienced a power disruption after a severe windstorm damaged a local utility company's transmission line, which impacted operations. Despite this, Vale's performance in Brazil’s nickel sector remained robust.

Indonesia and Third-Party Contributions

Vale’s nickel production from Indonesia saw a dramatic rise, nearly tripling year-on-year to 19,300 tonnes in the third quarter. This increase was driven by the offtake from third-party suppliers and production from its subsidiary, PT Vale Indonesia.

Copper Production Up Despite Setbacks at Salobo Mine

Vale’s copper production also saw growth, with a 5.3% increase in the third quarter, reaching 85,900 tonnes. Over the first nine months of the year, copper output rose by 8.3% to 246,300 tonnes. At the Salobo mine in Brazil, production was impacted by a conveyor belt fire at Salobo’s third plant, which led to a 6% decline in output. However, higher production at its other two plants helped mitigate the losses.

The Sossego mine also performed well, with production rising by 15.2% to 19,700 tonnes, thanks to stronger output and improved feed grades after the mine’s operational license was reinstated in June.

In Canada, Vale’s copper production surged by 31.5% to 19,600 tonnes, further contributing to the overall rise in copper production for the quarter.

Production Guidance for 2024

Vale has maintained its production guidance for 2024, with an expected output of 153,000-168,000 tonnes of nickel and 320,000-355,000 tonnes of copper.

Antofagasta Maintains Copper Production Guidance for 2025 Amid Incremental Increase at Centinela Mine

Antofagasta

London-listed mining company Antofagasta has kept its copper production guidance steady for 2025, projecting flat output compared to 2024. Despite the stable forecast, the company expects an incremental increase in copper concentrate output at its Centinela mine in Chile.

2024 and 2025 Copper Production Outlook

Antofagasta confirmed that it is on track to meet its copper production guidance for 2024, expecting to finish the year at the lower end of its previously set range of 670,000-710,000 metric tonnes (t) of copper. For 2025, the company projects production to range between 660,000-700,000t, maintaining a stable output despite the minor increase at Centinela. The increase is attributed to a boost in concentrate production at the mine, although specific details were not provided.

Third Quarter Performance

In the third quarter, Antofagasta reported a 3% year-on-year increase in copper production, rising to 179,000t from 173,600t in the same period last year. The increase was largely driven by a partial destocking of inventories at its Los Pelambres mine and improvements in copper grades and recoveries at the Centinela mine. These efforts contributed to a 15.3% quarter-on-quarter rise in copper output, reflecting the company’s ongoing optimization at its operations.

Copper Sales and Molybdenum Production

Alongside the increase in copper output, Antofagasta's copper sales grew by nearly 11.4% year-on-year to reach 176,500t in Q3, marking a 9.3% increase compared to the previous quarter. However, the company faced a decline in molybdenum production, which fell 15% year-on-year to 2,700t. Despite this, it showed an 8% improvement compared to Q2 2024.

Chile's Role in Global Copper Supply

As the world’s largest copper-producing nation, Chile plays a central role in Antofagasta's operations. The company operates four mines in the country, including the Los Pelambres and Centinela mines, which are key contributors to global copper supply. Despite challenges in the mining sector, Antofagasta continues to focus on efficiency improvements and maintaining its production levels.

Antofagasta’s stable production guidance for 2025 comes as the global copper market braces for ongoing fluctuations in demand, particularly from industries like electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy. The company's consistent output is indicative of its robust position in the global copper market, with its operations in Chile continuing to be a significant driver for the industry.

BHP Reports Higher Copper Output in July-December, Driven by Strong Escondida Production

BHP

Escondida’s Growth Offsets Declines in Other Operations

BHP, one of the world’s largest mining companies, reported a 10% increase in copper production for July-December 2024, reaching 987,000 tonnes. This growth was primarily driven by higher output from the Escondida mine in Chile, which hit a 10-year high. The strong Escondida performance offset declining production from Pampa Norte, South Australia, and the Antamina mine in Peru.

The company maintained its 2024-25 copper production guidance at 1.85 million-2.05 million tonnes, reinforcing its position as a key player in the global copper market.

Regional Copper Production Performance

Production at Escondida surged 22% year-on-year to 644,000 tonnes, benefiting from higher-grade ore feed and improved recovery rates. Output guidance for 2024-25 remains at 1.18 million-1.3 million tonnes, highlighting continued operational stability.

Conversely, Pampa Norte’s copper production declined by 9% to 126,000 tonnes, mainly due to the temporary care and maintenance of the Cerro Colorado mine. Meanwhile, Spence mine output fell slightly by 1%, but its production guidance remains between 240,000-270,000 tonnes.

In South Australia, copper production dropped by 6% to 145,000 tonnes due to a power outage in October caused by a severe lightning storm. However, operations rebounded, producing 30,000 tonnes in December. Consequently, BHP lowered its South Australian 2024-25 guidance from 310,000-340,000 tonnes to 300,000-325,000 tonnes.

The Antamina mine in Peru saw a 7% drop in production, totaling 67,000 tonnes, due to planned lower throughput and declining ore grades. Despite this, output guidance remains unchanged at 115,000-135,000 tonnes.

Copper Prices and Nickel Market Challenges

BHP’s average realised copper price increased by 9% to $3.99/lb, closely following the London Metal Exchange (LME) price surge of 12% to an average of $9,331/t for July-December.

Meanwhile, nickel prices fell, impacting BHP’s earnings. The company’s average realised nickel price dropped 12% to $16,386/t, aligning with the LME’s 14% drop in class 1 nickel prices to $16,401/t.

Nickel production plummeted 31% to 28,000 tonnes, as BHP suspended operations at its Western Australian nickel division in October. Given the uncertain market conditions, no production guidance has been issued for nickel in 2024-25.

Cost Guidance Updates and Future Outlook

BHP maintained its unit cost guidance at $1.30-$1.60/lb at Escondida and $2-$2.30/lb at Spence. However, due to increased costs in South Australia, the company revised its cost guidance there to the upper half of $1.30-$1.80/lb.

Despite operational challenges in South Australia and Pampa Norte, strong copper prices and Escondida’s production boost have positioned BHP for a resilient 2024-25 fiscal year. With global copper demand rising, the company remains a key player in supplying critical metals for the energy transition.

Lundin Mining Adjusts Annual Copper and Zinc Production Guidance

Lundin Mining

Canada-based Lundin Mining has revised its full-year production guidance for copper and zinc, reflecting operational challenges and shifting market conditions. Despite a rise in third-quarter copper production, the company reported a decline in zinc output, prompting a recalibration of its production targets.

Copper Production Sees Mixed Results

Lundin Mining tightened its annual copper production guidance to 366,000-389,000t, down from the previous range of 366,000-400,000t. In the third quarter, Lundin achieved a copper output of 99,855t, an 11% increase year-on-year. This brought the total copper production for the first nine months of 2023 to 267,576t, a remarkable 27% rise compared to the same period last year.

Chile's Candelaria mine played a pivotal role, contributing 50,018t of copper in Q3, thanks to higher head grades. However, this increase was partially offset by disruptions at other assets:

Labour action in August at the Caserones mine in Chile.

A ground fall at the Eagle East mine in the U.S. during the second quarter.

Lower grades at the Neves-Corvo mine in Portugal.

These operational challenges led to a downward revision of production guidance at these sites.

Zinc and Nickel Production Declines

Lundin’s annual zinc production guidance was adjusted to 190,000-199,000t, reduced from the earlier projection of 195,000-215,000t. While output at Sweden's Zinkgruvan mine increased, it was counterbalanced by lower production at Neves-Corvo due to rehabilitation and development impacting mine sequencing. Refined zinc production in Q3 was down 6.4%, with 46,610t produced, bringing the year-to-date total to 139,758t, a 4% decrease compared to 2022.

Nickel production suffered a significant setback, plummeting nearly 80% year-on-year to 893t in the third quarter, largely due to reduced mining rates at Eagle East.

Molybdenum Production from Caserones Acquisition

Following the mid-July 2023 acquisition of the Caserones copper-molybdenum mine, Lundin began producing molybdenum. However, third-quarter output was 693t, approximately 37% lower than the same period last year.

These adjustments highlight Lundin Mining’s proactive approach to navigating operational hurdles while maintaining a focus on long-term growth and stability in a volatile commodities market.

Barrick Gold's 2024 Copper Output Sees Growth with Lumwana Mine Surge

Barrick Gold

Canada-based mining giant Barrick Gold has reported an impressive increase in its copper production for 2024, driven by higher output from the Lumwana mine in Zambia. The company’s performance in the fourth quarter highlighted significant growth, positioning Barrick for continued success in the global copper market.

Increased Copper Production at Lumwana

Barrick Gold produced 64,000 tons of copper in the fourth quarter of 2024, marking a 33% increase compared to the previous quarter. This surge helped Barrick achieve a total output of 195,000 tons for the entire year, reflecting a 2% increase year-over-year.

A standout contributor to this performance was the Lumwana mine, which produced 46,000 tons of copper during the final quarter of 2024, a remarkable 53% rise from the previous quarter. This growth resulted from improved throughput, higher grades, and better recoveries, leading to a total annual production of 123,000 tons at Lumwana—an increase of 4.2% over the previous year.

Strategic Plans for the Future

Looking ahead, Barrick has set ambitious production targets for Lumwana. The company forecasts that in 2025, the mine will produce between 125,000 and 155,000 tons of attributable copper. To support this growth, Barrick plans to begin construction on Lumwana’s expansion this year. The expansion will extend the mine's operational life by 17 years, with the aim of doubling the processing plant’s capacity to 240,000 tons of copper per year.

In addition to Lumwana, Barrick’s other key copper assets are showing consistent results. The company’s 50%-owned Zaldivar mine in Chile and Jabal Sayid mine in Saudi Arabia maintained stable year-on-year copper production. The Zaldivar mine produced 40,000 tons in 2024, while Jabal Sayid produced 32,000 tons. Barrick’s copper production guidance for 2025 indicates a slight increase, with projections of 40,000–45,000 tons from Zaldivar and 25,000–35,000 tons from Jabal Sayid.

A Glimpse at the Future

Looking toward 2025, Barrick's total copper production is expected to rise to between 200,000 and 230,000 tons, up from 195,000 tons in 2024. Moreover, the company has initiated early construction works at the Reko Diq project in Pakistan, with the first production anticipated by the end of 2028.

Barrick Gold’s robust copper production and expansion plans signal a strong outlook for the company’s mining operations. With strategic growth initiatives and stable output from key mines, Barrick is positioning itself to meet the growing global demand for copper, essential for various industries, including renewable energy and electric vehicles.

Hudbay Maintains 2025 Copper Production Targets Despite Q1 Output Decline

Hudbay Minerals

Copper Mountain and Permitting Milestones Support Full-Year Outlook

Hudbay Minerals remains on track to meet its 2025 copper production targets despite reporting an 11% decline in first-quarter output. The Focus Keyphrase "Hudbay copper production targets" has become a focal point for analysts tracking North American copper supply trends amid rising global demand.

The company produced 30,958 tonnes of copper in Q1, down from the same period last year, while copper sales fell 5% to 31,768 tonnes. However, steady mill throughput at its Peru and Manitoba operations and anticipated gains at the Copper Mountain mine in British Columbia are expected to offset the shortfall. Hudbay recently acquired Mitsubishi Materials’ 25% stake in the mine, assuming full ownership and enhancing operational control.

Copper Mountain Upgrades and Copper World Permits Boost Long-Term Growth

Hudbay anticipates higher output in the second half of 2025, driven by mill improvements at Copper Mountain. This project is critical to stabilizing overall copper output amid global supply tightening.

Meanwhile, in Arizona, Hudbay’s Copper World project received final permitting approval during Q1. The company stated that a development decision is expected no earlier than 2026, positioning it as a medium-term growth asset in the U.S. copper pipeline.

Revenue Surges Despite Zinc Drop and Lower Copper Output

Although copper and zinc production fell, Hudbay's Q1 net income surged fourfold to $99.2 million, supported by 13% higher revenue at $594.9 million. Zinc production dropped 29% year-on-year to 6,265 tonnes, with sales falling 21%. However, molybdenum performance remained steady, with sales increasing by 8% to 448 tonnes.

Despite mixed output results, Hudbay has reaffirmed its full-year production guidance across all metals, signaling resilience in its diversified base metals strategy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hudbay’s ability to maintain its 2025 copper production targets amid a Q1 dip highlights the strategic value of asset optimization and ownership consolidation. With mill upgrades and permit wins in place, the company is poised to reinforce its role in the North American copper supply chain during a period of growing geopolitical and energy transition pressures.

Anglo American Faces Decline in Copper, Nickel, and PGM Output in 2024

Anglo American

Decreased Production from Chile, Peru, and South Africa Affects Key Metals

Anglo American, the UK-South African mining giant, reported a drop in its copper, nickel, and platinum group metals (PGMs) output for 2024. This decline, particularly from its assets in Chile, Peru, and South Africa, reflects challenges faced in production and ongoing operational adjustments.

Copper Production Decline Driven by Chile and Peru

Anglo American’s total copper output for 2024 decreased by 6%, reaching 772,700 tonnes. Copper production in Chile dropped by 8% to 466,400 tonnes, with a 20% decline at the Los Bronces mine, which was placed on care and maintenance in July. Additionally, production at the Collahuasi mine fell by 3%, though higher grades at El Soldado partially offset these declines, with a 22% output increase.

In Peru, the Quellaveco mine saw a 4% reduction in copper output to 306,300 tonnes, due to lower grades and recoveries. Anglo American’s Q4 copper output also saw a notable drop, decreasing by 14% to 197,500 tonnes compared to the previous year.

Looking ahead, the company projects copper production to range between 690,000 and 750,000 tonnes in 2025, with an expectation of increasing production to 760,000 to 820,000 tonnes in 2026 and 2027.

Nickel and PGM Production Challenges

Nickel output for Anglo American fell by 2% in 2024, totaling 39,400 tonnes. A 13% drop in production at the Codemin site in Brazil was partially offset by a 2% increase at the Barro Alto plant due to operational improvements. In Q4, nickel production declined by 10%, amounting to 10,000 tonnes, primarily due to planned lower grades.

The company also faced a 7% decline in PGM production from its operations, including mines in South Africa and Zimbabwe. Full-year production of PGMs in concentrate decreased to 3.55 million ounces. However, refined PGM production rose by 3%, reaching 3.92 million ounces in 2024. In 2025, Anglo American expects to produce between 3 million and 3.4 million ounces of PGMs.

Manganese Ore Decline and Future Expectations

Anglo American’s manganese ore production fell sharply by 38% to 2.29 million tonnes in 2024. This was largely due to the suspension of Australian operations following damage caused by Tropical Cyclone Megan in March.

Despite the setbacks in 2024, the company’s projections for future production of copper, nickel, and PGMs indicate a positive outlook for 2025 and beyond, as it continues to adjust operations and focus on optimizing output at key sites.

Freeport-McMoRan Plans Copper Mine Expansions in Arizona and Chile

Freeport-McMoRan Copper

Freeport-McMoRan, the Arizona-based mining giant, has announced ambitious plans to expand its copper mining operations to meet the rising demand for the metal, particularly driven by electric vehicle (EV) production and infrastructure development. The company outlined key projects in Arizona and Chile slated for 2025 and beyond.

Expansion Projects in Arizona and Chile

• Bagdad Mine (Arizona): Freeport plans to double the concentrator capacity of the Bagdad mine to produce 200–250 million lbs of copper annually. It is set to become the first Freeport mine with a fully autonomous haulage system, transitioning its fleet to 100% automation.
• Lonestar/Safford Mine (Arizona): Exploration studies are ongoing, with results expected by late 2024. This could pave the way for significant capacity increases.
• El Abra Mine (Chile): An expansion at the El Abra site is under review, with environmental impact studies scheduled for submission by the end of 2025.

Copper Production Trends and Market Dynamics

In the third quarter, Freeport's copper production fell 3% year-on-year to 1.05 billion lbs, but year-to-date production remains up by 1.8% at 3.17 billion lbs. Consolidated molybdenum production for the quarter was steady at 20 million lbs, though year-to-date figures are down 6% to 58 million lbs.

Despite the mixed production figures, copper prices averaged $4.32/lb during the quarter, a notable increase from $3.86/lb in the previous year, bolstering revenues.

Regional Production Overview

1. North America: Copper production dropped by 9% to 313 million lbs due to lower ore grades and operating rates, with the Morenci joint venture experiencing the most significant decline. However, molybdenum production in the region rose by 14% to 8 million lbs.
2. South America: Copper output decreased by 2% to 299 million lbs, largely attributed to shipment timing and reduced output at Cerro Verde.
3. Indonesia: Copper production rose by 0.7% to 439 million lbs. However, a fire at the Manyar smelter in October may impact fourth-quarter figures.

Financial Performance

Freeport reported a quarterly profit of $526 million, up from $454 million a year ago, supported by a revenue increase to $6.8 billion from $5.8 billion.

Demand Outlook

Freeport is cautiously optimistic about the future of copper demand, citing:

• Increased EV-related demand from China, supported by anticipated government stimulus.
• Balanced US demand with strong performance in power cable and building wire markets offsetting weaknesses in residential and auto sectors.

With these expansions, Freeport-McMoRan is positioning itself to capitalize on growing copper demand while navigating regional production challenges.

China Plans to Boost Domestic Copper Resources and Scrap Usage by 2027

China Copper Resources

The country's strategy focuses on expanding copper production and enhancing secondary material utilization.

China has announced plans to increase its domestic copper resources by 5-10% by 2027, along with a significant push to boost the use of secondary materials such as copper scrap. According to a February 11th statement from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the country will focus on expanding copper exploration and production in several key regions. These efforts align with China’s broader strategy to enhance its copper supply chain and reduce dependency on external sources.

Increased Domestic Copper Exploration and Smelting Projects

As part of its initiative, China will promote exploration in regions such as Tibet, Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Heilongjiang provinces. The country has already made substantial progress in discovering new copper resources, with over 20 million tonnes of new copper found in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since 2021. This is double the quantity discovered during the 2016-2020 period. To further boost copper production, China plans to develop new copper mines in these regions and integrate new smelting projects with concentrate production facilities. These projects are expected to play a key role in meeting the country’s growing demand for refined copper.

Boosting Copper Scrap Utilization

Another significant aspect of China’s strategy is increasing the use of copper scrap. Copper smelters will be encouraged to use more secondary copper, which has already become a major feedstock in the production of refined copper. In 2023, more than 31% of China's refined copper came from scrap, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA). To support this, the government plans to back the construction of new copper scrap recycling facilities and increase imports of copper scrap. In 2024, China’s copper scrap imports rose by 13%, reaching over 2.25 million tonnes, as smelters shifted to more cost-effective scrap rather than concentrates due to higher concentrate prices.

Global Copper Supply and Smelting Capacity

China’s increased demand for copper concentrate, along with the country’s focus on smelting capacity expansions, is expected to tighten global copper concentrate supply. This supply crunch has already led to a decline in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) since 2024. Market participants suggest that smelting capacity expansions may outpace new copper mine projects, contributing to continued global supply tightness in 2025.

Conclusion

China’s push to increase domestic copper resources and enhance the use of secondary materials, such as copper scrap, reflects a strategic move to secure its position in the global copper market. With growing demand for refined copper and a constrained global supply of copper concentrates, the country’s efforts to expand production capacity and increase recycling will be essential to meeting future copper needs.

Antofagasta Copper Production Surges in Q1 2025 on Chilean Mine Gains

Antofagasta

Strong Growth at Los Pelambres and Centinela Drives Higher Output

Antofagasta’s copper production surged in the first quarter of 2025, driven by strong performance at its Chilean mines. The London-listed miner produced 154,700 tonnes of copper, up 20% year-on-year. Copper sales rose 47.1% to 170,200 tonnes. This growth reflects improved processing rates and higher ore grades at its flagship operations.

At the Los Pelambres mine, copper output jumped 26.4% year-on-year to 69,900 tonnes, supported by reduced maintenance disruptions. Meanwhile, Centinela’s copper production rose 23.6% to 55,600 tonnes, as concentrate volumes climbed 56.1% thanks to better copper grades. However, Centinela’s cathode production fell 10% to 19,800 tonnes due to shifting production priorities.

Full-Year Copper Outlook Stays Bullish

Antofagasta reaffirmed its 2025 copper production guidance at 660,000–700,000 tonnes amid strong market fundamentals. Copper output at Antucoya rose 3.1% to 20,200 tonnes, while Zaldivar fell 5.3% to 9,000 tonnes in the quarter. The company also reported molybdenum production up 14.8% to 3,100 tonnes, with Centinela contributing an impressive 60% rise.

Copper remains vital for global electrification and energy security, according to CEO Ivan Arriagada. As a result, Antofagasta expects long-term demand growth and plans to meet it through ongoing project expansions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Antofagasta’s quarterly copper boost reinforces Chile’s role as a global copper hub. As demand for electrification metals grows, production agility at major mines will remain a critical advantage.

Anglo American Reports 3Q Decline in Copper Output but Revises Nickel and PGM Guidance Upwards

Anglo American

Anglo American, the UK-South African mining giant, experienced a 13% year-on-year decline in copper production during the third quarter of 2024, with output falling to 181,000 tons. The decrease was primarily attributed to reduced production at its mines in Chile and Peru.

Copper Production Highlights

• Peru’s Quellaveco Mine: Output fell 21% to 68,700 tons due to lower grades and recoveries. Production is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter.
• Chilean Operations: Output dropped 7% to 112,600 tons, driven by the planned closure of the Los Bronces plant in July, where production fell 20%. However, higher grades at El Soldado boosted output by 16%, partially offsetting the losses.

Total copper production for the year to date reached 575,000 tons, down 4% year-on-year. The company remains on track to meet its full-year production guidance of 730,000-790,000 tons, split between 430,000-460,000 tons from Chile and 300,000-330,000 tons from Peru.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) Performance

• PGMs in Concentrate: Production dropped 10% to 922,000 ounces due to lower output at South Africa’s Mogalakwena and Amandelbult mines. Higher production at Zimbabwe’s Unki mine partially offset these declines.
• Refined PGMs: Production rose 22% to 1.11 million ounces, supported by stability in processing operations.

Anglo American revised its full-year refined PGM production guidance upward to 3.7-3.9 million ounces, from the earlier estimate of 3.3-3.7 million ounces.

Nickel Production Trends

Nickel output increased 6% to 9,900 tons during the quarter, driven by operational improvements at the Barro Alto plant in Brazil. Year-to-date nickel production reached 28,900 tons, up 2%.

The company raised its full-year nickel production guidance to 38,000-39,000 tons, up from its earlier range of 36,000-38,000 tons.

Outlook

Anglo American’s diversified portfolio continues to offset challenges in copper production with strong performance in nickel and PGMs. While facing difficulties in its copper operations, the upward revisions in nickel and PGM guidance underscore the company’s adaptability and operational resilience.

Global Refined Copper Market Records Surplus in January-August

Copper

The global refined copper market saw a surplus of 535,000 tons (t) in the first eight months of 2024, up sharply from a surplus of 75,000t during the same period last year, according to preliminary data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). This increase in surplus reflects a rise in production, particularly in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

Refined Copper Supply Outpaces Demand

From January to August, refined copper production increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 18.3 million tons (mn t). Primary refined copper output, which includes electrolytic and electrowinning processes, rose by 5.2%, while secondary refined production from scrap increased by 4.6%.

The expansion of refining capacity played a critical role, with China and the DRC leading the charge. China expanded its capacity by 6.5%, while the DRC achieved a significant 16% increase. Together, these two regions accounted for 54% of global refined copper production. Other notable contributors were Japan (+3.8%) and the US (+8%). Conversely, production in the EU declined by 2%, driven by the shutdown of Boliden's Ronnskar refinery in Sweden in June 2023.

Mine Production Recovers

Global copper mine output rose by 2% year-on-year to 14.9mn t, driven by recovery from production constraints in 2023 and new mining projects. Key highlights include:

Democratic Republic of the Congo: Mine output grew by 11%, largely due to expansions at the Kamoa-Kakula mine, operated by Canadian firm Ivanhoe Mines.

Indonesia: Production surged by 22%, recovering from operational disruptions in 2023.

Chile: Mine output increased by 3% with improved operations.

However, production fell in Peru (-0.7%) and the US (-5%) due to local challenges.

Copper Demand Grows Moderately

Global refined copper consumption rose by 2.5% to 17.8mn t during January-August. China's apparent demand led the growth with a 2.7% increase, while demand in the EU, Japan, and the US remained weak. Other Asian countries and regions like the Middle East and North Africa helped offset this decline, contributing to a 2% rise in consumption outside of China.

August Performance: A Month in Surplus

In August alone, the global refined copper market produced 2.32mn t and consumed 2.27mn t, resulting in a monthly surplus of 54,000t.

Outlook

With production outpacing demand, the refined copper market may continue to face surplus conditions in the near term. The global shift toward increased production capacity and moderate demand growth, led by China and the DRC, will shape the market dynamics going forward.

Teck Resources Lowers 2024 Copper Production Forecast Amid Operational Challenges

Teck Resources

Canadian mining company Teck Resources has revised its 2024 copper production guidance downward by 7% at the midpoint, citing unplanned maintenance, labor shortages, and logistical upgrades. The updated forecast sets production at 420,000-455,000 metric tonnes (t), down from the previously expected 435,000-500,000t.

Key Factors Behind the Revision

• Highland Valley Copper Mine: Labor tightness and delays in implementing new haul truck systems contributed to the downgrade.
• Quebrada Blanca Mine: Maintenance issues in grinding and flotation circuits further impacted the forecast.

Refined zinc production guidance was also lowered to 240,000-250,000t, following a fire at Teck’s electrolytic zinc plant in September.

Operational Highlights

Despite the revised outlook, Teck’s third-quarter copper production surged to 115,000t, a 60% increase year-on-year.

• Quebrada Blanca: Produced 52,500t, up 184% from the same quarter in 2023 as ramp-up efforts continued. Full capacity is expected by the end of 2024.
• Highland Valley: Output increased 24% to 25,400t, thanks to higher mill throughput and ore production, although Lornex pit delays dampened progress.
• Antamina: Copper production grew 12% to 111,500t, supported by higher recoveries and copper-only ore treatment.
• Carmen de Andacollo: Production rose 24% to 11,500t, benefiting from improved mill throughput and recovery rates.

Zinc Production Updates

• Zinc in Concentrate: Increased 3% year-on-year to 158,000t, while sales fell 10% to 268,000t.
• Red Dog Mine: Output rose 14% to 142,500t, driven by improved mill availability.
• Trail Operations: Refined zinc production decreased 3% due to the fire and rail labor disruptions.

Financial Performance

Teck reported a C$792 million ($571 million) loss in the third quarter, a sharp contrast to the C$268 million profit recorded during the same period in 2023.

Strategic Moves and Long-Term Focus

Teck has sold its 77% stake in EVR, its steelmaking coal business, to Glencore, allowing the company to focus on ramping up copper production. Medium- and long-term projects include:

• Extending the Highland Valley mine life.
• Exploring Minas de San Nicolas and Zafranal for future mining operations.

All major projects are in the permitting phase, with decisions expected by mid-to-late 2025.

Boliden’s 2024 Output Shows Mixed Performance in Zinc and Nickel Production

Boliden

Zinc Production Declines, But Copper and Nickel Output Increase for Sweden's Boliden

Sweden-based mining company Boliden has reported mixed results for its 2024 production across various metals. Zinc output showed a notable decline, while copper and nickel production saw significant increases. This reflects both challenges and successes in the company’s operations, driven by factors such as environmental restrictions and planned maintenance.

Zinc Production Declines, While Copper and Nickel Perform Well

Boliden's zinc-in-concentrate production increased by 8% in the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching 41,680 tonnes. However, the company’s full-year zinc output fell by 16%, totaling 164,108 tonnes, attributed to limited production at the Swedish Garpenberg mine due to environmental permit restrictions. Additionally, maintenance work at the Swedish Boliden Area mine further impacted overall zinc output.

Despite the drop in zinc production, the company managed a 7% increase in zinc production in the fourth quarter, reaching 112,692 tonnes. For the full year, Boliden's total zinc output dropped by just 1% to 453,743 tonnes, a relatively small decrease considering the challenges faced.

Copper and Nickel Show Strong Growth

Boliden reported a 7% increase in its copper-in-concentrate production for Q4 2024, reaching 22,326 tonnes. This brought the total copper-in-concentrate output for the year to 90,692 tonnes, a 1% increase from 2023. However, copper cathode production saw a drop of 29% for the full year, totaling 158,968 tonnes, due to the suspension of cathode production at Sweden's Ronnskar smelter.

On the other hand, copper anode production rose by 6% in Q4, reaching 120,856 tonnes, and the total annual output increased by 11% to 433,778 tonnes. This was supported by higher output at the Ronnskar smelter in the fourth quarter.

Nickel production was one of the standout performers. Boliden’s nickel-in-concentrate output increased by 11% in Q4, reaching 2,849 tonnes. For the full year, nickel production surged by 16% to 11,529 tonnes, driven by higher recovery rates at Finland's Kevitsa mine. Additionally, nickel-in-matte production for the fourth quarter rose by 6%, totaling 11,715 tonnes. Annual nickel-in-matte production increased by 17% to 40,074 tonnes.

Boliden’s Outlook for 2025

While Boliden faced challenges with its zinc production, the company’s increased copper and nickel output in 2024 demonstrates its ability to adapt and meet growing global demand for these critical metals. The strong performance in copper and nickel, alongside ongoing operational improvements, positions Boliden to continue making significant contributions to the global mining sector in 2025.

China's Jiayuan to Secure Copper Cathode Supply from Swiss Firm IXM for Lithium-Ion Foil Production

Guangdong Jiayuan

Guangdong Jiayuan, a leading Chinese copper foil producer, has reached an agreement with Switzerland-based trading firm IXM to purchase a significant quantity of copper cathode feedstock. The deal, valued at approximately 5.066 billion yuan ($694 million), is set to support Jiayuan’s expansion of refined copper foil production, which is critical for lithium-ion batteries, copper-clad laminates, and printed circuit boards.

Details of the Copper Cathode Purchase Agreement

The agreement between Jiayuan and IXM will see the Chinese company secure 60,000 tons of copper cathode from IXM’s Geneva operations between December 2024 and November 2025. Additionally, Jiayuan will purchase 10,000 tons of cathode from IXM’s Shanghai branch during 2025. The price of the copper cathode will be determined through a negotiated pricing methodology, which will be finalized when both parties sign the contract.

Jiayuan, with a production capacity of 100,000 tons per year of refined copper foil, has seen steady growth in its production. In the first half of 2024, the company produced 24,000 tons of copper foil, marking a slight increase of 0.1% year-over-year. This agreement will ensure a steady supply of high-quality copper cathode to meet the growing demand for copper foil in key sectors such as electric vehicle (EV) batteries and electronic components.

China's Booming Copper Foil and NEV Industries

China’s refined copper foil production capacity reached 1.6 million tons per year in 2023, a 51% increase from the previous year. Notably, the production capacity for lithium-ion copper foil—used in batteries for electric vehicles—rose sharply by 68%, reaching 950,000 tons per year in 2023. With China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) market expanding rapidly, the demand for lithium-ion copper foil is expected to grow significantly. Industry experts predict that deliveries of lithium-ion copper foil in China will reach 1.1 million tons per year by 2025.

The Chinese NEV industry is experiencing robust growth, with production rising by 35% to 11.345 million units in the first 11 months of 2024. Sales of NEVs have also surged, increasing by 36% over the same period. As the NEV market continues to expand, the demand for copper, particularly copper foil for lithium-ion batteries, is expected to increase, further driving the need for stable copper supply agreements like the one between Jiayuan and IXM.

Copper Market Trends and Prices

On December 12, 2024, Metalnomist-assessed grade-A copper cathode prices, based on the London Metal Exchange (LME) official cash prices, were in the range of $40-60 per ton cif Shanghai. These prices remained flat compared to December 10, but they had dropped from the previous range of $45-60 per ton observed on December 5 due to a rebound in copper prices during the week. The fluctuating prices highlight the importance of securing stable supply contracts for manufacturers like Jiayuan as copper remains a critical commodity in the transition to a low-carbon economy.

Ivanhoe Mines Achieves Record Copper Output at Kamoa-Kakula in October

Ivanhoe Mines

Ivanhoe Mines, a Canadian mining company, announced a significant milestone in copper production from its Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In October 2024, the Kamoa-Kakula mine reached a new record by producing 41,800 tons of copper concentrates, surpassing the previous high of 40,347 tons set in August. This marks an important achievement in the company’s ongoing expansion efforts and positions Kamoa-Kakula as one of the top global copper producers.

Strong Performance from Kamoa-Kakula’s Phase 1, 2, and 3 Concentrators

The combined output from Kamoa-Kakula's Phase 1, 2, and 3 concentrators hit a new high in October, with an impressive peak daily output of 1,720 tons of copper in concentrate on October 12. This daily output is equivalent to an annualized production rate of approximately 580,000 tons of copper. The steady performance of these concentrators underscores the operational success of the project, which continues to deliver strong results despite global economic uncertainties.

The Phase 3 concentrator, which commenced commercial production in August 2024, played a pivotal role in this achievement. With the addition of Phase 3, the mine’s copper production capacity increased from 450,000 tons per year (t/yr) to 600,000 t/yr. In October alone, the Phase 3 concentrator processed 448,478 tons of ore, contributing an additional 10,533 tons of copper-in-concentrate, representing a 42% increase in output compared to September.

Expanding Capacity for Future Growth

By October 31, Kamoa-Kakula’s combined copper production for the year totaled approximately 345,042 tons, further solidifying the project's standing as one of the most productive copper mines globally. Ivanhoe Mines is also making significant strides toward expanding the operation. The company is nearing the completion of the engineering stage for Kamoa-Kakula’s Phase 4 expansion, which promises to further boost copper production capacity and establish the mine as a leading supplier in the global copper market.

Conclusion

Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula copper complex continues to achieve impressive milestones, driving growth in both production and capacity. With the successful ramp-up of Phase 3 and the ongoing preparations for Phase 4, the DRC-based mine is positioned for further success in the global copper industry. This achievement not only highlights the company’s operational excellence but also underscores the strategic importance of Kamoa-Kakula in meeting the growing global demand for copper, especially in industries like electric vehicles, renewable energy, and infrastructure development.

Chinese Cobalt Prices Expected to Decline Further in 2025 Amid Rising Supply and Weak Demand

Chinese Cobalt Manufacturing

Oversupply and Weak Demand to Push Cobalt Prices Lower

The Chinese cobalt market is set to experience further price declines in 2025, as increasing nickel and copper production, from which cobalt is a by-product, leads to an oversupply that buyers are struggling to absorb.

Currently, Chinese-origin cobalt metal traded in Europe has already seen significant pressure due to a lack of floor pricing on raw materials, a trend expected to persist into the new year. Market insiders suggest that cobalt prices could drop below $9/lb, as fully integrated Chinese producers view cobalt as a credit to their primary metal production, particularly nickel and copper.

For these refiners, cobalt is a secondary concern. As one trading firm explained, some Chinese producers operate with production costs as low as $4,000 per ton while selling at $9,000 per ton. Even if they incur a $50 million loss on cobalt, they may still profit significantly from copper production, which can generate up to $700 million in gains.

Chinese Refiners Likely to Continue Production at a Loss

Unlike non-Chinese refiners, which may curtail supply if cobalt prices fall below $9/lb, some Chinese integrated mining firms and refiners could continue refining hydroxide into metal at a loss-making $7-8/lb.

While there is speculation that some Chinese metal producers may attempt to negotiate floor prices in their contracts, it remains uncertain whether these efforts will succeed. Market participants are closely watching how these negotiations unfold, as they could provide some level of price support if successful.

Global Nickel and Copper Growth to Sustain Cobalt Oversupply

The primary factor driving cobalt’s oversupply is the continued expansion of nickel and copper production, as cobalt is a by-product of both metals.

• Nickel production is set to rise again in 2025 with the launch of new Class 1 nickel refineries in China and Indonesia. This will likely keep London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month official nickel prices within the $15,000-17,000 per ton range, significantly lower than the $30,000 per ton peak in early 2023.

• Copper production is also projected to increase due to expansions at mines such as Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Although cobalt sales represent only a minor portion of copper mining revenues, producers still aim to extract value from it as a credit.

Weakened Demand from EV and Chemicals Sectors Further Pressures Prices

While cobalt demand in China has surged by 40%, this has not been enough to counteract weakening demand in other regions, particularly in Europe:

• The electric vehicle (EV) sector in Europe has slowed down, leading to reduced demand for cathode active materials like cobalt.

• The European chemicals industry, particularly in Germany, has struggled due to rising energy costs and broader economic challenges.

Even if prices do increase, China has ample spare refining capacity and could use third-party tolling arrangements to process hydroxide into metal, further maintaining downward price pressure.

Peak Oversupply May Be Near, But Price Recovery Remains Uncertain

Some market participants believe that cobalt hydroxide oversupply may have already peaked. The shift towards lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which do not use cobalt, has significantly impacted the demand for nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery chemistries, leading to lower demand for cobalt sulfate and cobalt hydroxide.

However, despite this potential supply peak, weak demand across key industrial sectors suggests that cobalt prices are unlikely to see a strong recovery in the near term.

Conclusion

In 2025, Chinese cobalt prices are expected to remain under pressure due to rising nickel and copper production, ongoing oversupply, and weak demand from the European EV and chemicals sectors. While some believe that the cobalt market may be nearing peak oversupply, prices are unlikely to experience significant upward momentum unless demand rebounds sharply or supply reductions occur.

Stagnation in Copper Production at Codelco Amidst Broader Chilean Growth

Codelco

In a surprising turn of events, Codelco, the state-run mining giant of Chile, reported no change in its copper production for October this year, according to the latest data from the Chilean copper commission, Cochilco. Despite this stagnation, overall copper production within Chile showcased a noticeable increase, highlighting a divergent trend between the national giant and other producers.

Codelco's Performance: A Closer Look

In detail, Codelco's five active copper mines collectively maintained their output at 127,900 metric tonnes in October, mirroring the production levels of October 2023. This static performance is part of a broader context where Codelco has seen a year-to-date production decrease of 4.5%, with a total of 1.115 million tonnes produced so far, compared to the previous year.

Chile's Broader Copper Market

Contrasting with Codelco’s flat output, BHP’s Escondida mine, the largest copper mine in the world, experienced a significant production boost. It reported a 22% increase, with production reaching 108,000 tonnes in October. This spike contributed substantially to Chile's total copper production, which increased by 6.35% to 488,900 tonnes compared to the same month last year.

The divergence in production trends highlights the varying operational efficiencies and possibly differing geological challenges faced by these entities. This scenario paints a complex picture of Chile's copper sector, where not all players are experiencing growth uniformly.