Vale Copper Production Rises as Brazilian Mines Offset Canadian Disruptions

Vale, Brazilian Mines

Vale copper production increased in the first quarter as record combined output from the Salobo and Sossego mines strengthened the Brazilian mining group’s base metals performance. The company produced 102,300t of copper in January-March, up 12.5% from a year earlier.

Vale copper production was supported mainly by stronger domestic mine performance. Sossego output rose sharply, while Salobo posted a modest increase, helping offset weaker production from the Sudbury operation in Canada.

Vale copper production growth is important because the company is positioning copper and nickel as core transition metals. Higher output from Brazilian assets improves near-term supply while supporting Vale’s longer-term strategy to expand base metals exposure.

Salobo and Sossego Drive Copper Output Higher

Sossego delivered the strongest copper growth in the quarter. Production rose by 81.3% on the year to 29,000t, supported by strong mill performance and increased ore processing ahead of planned maintenance in the second quarter.

The stronger Sossego result shows how operational timing can influence quarterly copper supply. Vale pushed processing before maintenance, allowing the mine to lift output significantly compared with the previous year.

Salobo remained Vale’s largest copper contributor. Output increased by 1% on the year to 52,800t, giving the group a stable production base in Brazil.

Together, Salobo and Sossego delivered record combined production. This helped Vale absorb weaker performance from Sudbury, where copper output fell by nearly 10% to 20,400t.

Sudbury was affected by unexpected snowstorms and unplanned maintenance at the Clarabelle pit. The maintenance specifically hit copper concentrate production, although Vale said the issue has now been resolved.

The first-quarter result highlights the importance of geographic diversification. Stronger Brazilian output allowed Vale to grow copper production even as weather and maintenance disruptions affected Canadian operations.

Nickel Output Rises Across Canada and Brazil

Vale’s nickel production also increased in the first quarter. Total output rose by 12.3% on the year to 49,300t, supported by stronger production across Canadian and Brazilian assets.

Finished nickel production using Sudbury ore rose by 11.5% to 10,600t. This increase offset the effect of unplanned maintenance at Vale’s third converting reactor.

Voisey Bay delivered a stronger result. Nickel output rose by 61.5% on the year to 10,500t, supporting the group’s Canadian nickel performance.

Thompson moved in the opposite direction. Production fell by 66.7% to 12,000t because of a pipeline blockage worsened by poor weather conditions.

In Brazil, Onca Puma output rose by 64.8% to 8,900t. Vale said the increase was driven by the strongest production to date from the mine’s second furnace.

Nickel production from external feed in Indonesia fell by 2.2% to 18,100t. This included offtake from third parties and material linked to Vale’s local subsidiary, PT Vale Indonesia.

The mixed nickel results show that Vale’s base metals performance depends on several operating systems, including mines, furnaces, converters, external feed and weather-sensitive logistics. Still, the overall increase in nickel output strengthens Vale’s supply position in a market tied to stainless steel, batteries and high-performance alloys.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale’s first-quarter results show that copper and nickel growth increasingly depends on operational reliability, not only resource size. Stronger Brazilian output gave Vale a buffer against Canadian disruptions, reinforcing the strategic value of diversified base metals production.

Rio Tinto Copper Output Rises as Oyu Tolgoi Offsets Lithium Weakness

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto copper output increased in the first quarter as stronger production from the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia lifted the group’s global copper performance. The UK-Australian miner produced 229,000t of consolidated copper in January-March, up 9% from a year earlier.

Rio Tinto copper output growth was driven mainly by copper in concentrates from Oyu Tolgoi, where production rose by 56% to 102,000t. The ramp-up helped offset weaker concentrate output at Escondida and lower refined copper production at Kennecott.

The first-quarter result shows the changing shape of Rio Tinto’s portfolio. Copper is gaining strategic weight as electrification, grids and industrial infrastructure support long-term demand, while lithium remains more exposed to weather, ramp-up timing and early-stage project execution.

At the same time, Rio Tinto reported higher alumina production but weaker bauxite and lithium output. Heavy rainfall and cyclone-related disruptions affected Australian bauxite mines, while weather events in Argentina reduced lithium carbonate equivalent production.

Copper Growth Strengthens Despite Mixed Mine Performance

Oyu Tolgoi was the strongest contributor to Rio Tinto copper output in the first quarter. Its continued ramp-up in Mongolia lifted copper in concentrates production to 102,000t, reinforcing the mine’s role as one of the group’s most important growth assets.

The result matters because large copper projects are increasingly difficult to bring into stable production. Oyu Tolgoi gives Rio Tinto a major long-life copper source at a time when global mine supply remains vulnerable to grades, permitting delays and operational disruptions.

Escondida delivered a mixed quarter. Refined copper output at the Chilean operation rose by 21% to 16,000t, but concentrates production fell by 14% to 77,000t.

Kennecott in the US was weaker. Refined copper production fell by 20% to 34,000t because of lower anode inventories after unplanned smelter maintenance and reduced concentrator throughput caused by geotechnical constraints.

Rio Tinto kept its full-year copper production guidance unchanged at 800,000-870,000t. This suggests the company sees first-quarter disruptions as manageable within its broader 2026 plan.

The company also began drilling at the Resolution Copper project in Arizona after completing the land exchange in March. Resolution remains strategically important because it could become a major US copper source if development advances.

Rio Tinto copper output therefore carries both short-term and long-term significance. Oyu Tolgoi is already lifting production, while Resolution represents future supply optionality in a market increasingly focused on domestic and allied copper sources.

Lithium Falls as Weather Disrupts Argentina Operations

Rio Tinto’s lithium performance weakened sharply in the first quarter. Attributable lithium carbonate equivalent production fell by 26% on the year to 12,700t.

The decline was caused by heavy rainfall and weather events that disrupted operations at Olaroz and Fenix in Argentina. These disruptions show that lithium brine and carbonate operations remain sensitive to weather, water balance and site logistics.

The continued ramp-up at the Rincón starter plant partly offset the production impact. Rincón is important for Rio Tinto’s lithium strategy because it supports the company’s expansion into battery materials.

Rio Tinto maintained its 2026 LCE production guidance at 61,000-64,000t. First production from Fenix 1B and Sal de Vida remains on track for the second half of 2026.

The aluminium chain also showed mixed results. Primary aluminium output rose by 1% on the year to 835,000t, but fell by 2% from the previous quarter.

Alumina production increased by 6% to 2.04mn t, while bauxite production fell by 11% to 13.28mn t. Heavy rainfall at Weipa in Queensland and cyclone-related shutdowns at Weipa and Gove reduced bauxite output.

Recycled aluminium production also fell by 8% to 61,000t. Rio Tinto kept 2026 guidance unchanged for primary aluminium, alumina and bauxite, indicating confidence in recovery through the year.

The first-quarter data show a portfolio with different operating pressures. Copper is benefiting from major mine ramp-up, lithium is facing weather disruption, and aluminium raw materials are exposed to Australian climate events.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rio Tinto’s first quarter shows why diversified miners need both growth assets and operational resilience. Oyu Tolgoi is strengthening Rio Tinto copper output, but weather-linked lithium and bauxite disruptions show that energy-transition supply chains remain exposed to physical operating risk.

BHP Copper Production Falls as Escondida Grades and Pampa Norte Weaken

BHP

BHP copper production fell in January-March as lower output from Escondida and Pampa Norte outweighed stronger results from South Australia and Antamina. The Australian mining group produced 476,800t of copper during the quarter, down 7.1% from a year earlier and 2.8% from the previous quarter.

BHP copper production remains within the company’s wider plan for the July 2025-June 2026 fiscal year. The miner kept its overall copper guidance unchanged at 1.9mn-2mn t, suggesting that first-quarter weakness is still manageable at group level.

The result shows the operational complexity behind global copper supply. Escondida remains a major copper asset, but lower feed grades reduced concentrate output despite higher concentrator throughput. Pampa Norte also weakened sharply, forcing BHP to lower guidance for the operation.

BHP copper production is strategically important because copper demand is increasingly tied to grids, electrification, data centres, renewable energy and industrial infrastructure. Any weakness from major producers matters in a market already focused on mine grades, project delays and supply-chain fragility.

Escondida and Pampa Norte Drive Quarterly Copper Decline

Escondida remained the central pressure point in BHP’s quarterly copper performance. Copper concentrate output at the Chilean operation fell by 14% on the year to 248,300t.

The decline was mainly caused by lower feed grades. Escondida’s average copper feed grade fell to 0.88% from 1.09% a year earlier, reducing concentrate production even though concentrator throughput rose by 4.1% to 34.2mn t.

This is an important signal for copper markets. Higher throughput cannot fully offset grade decline when ore quality deteriorates. Large copper mines increasingly need to process more material to maintain output, raising energy, water, equipment and cost pressure.

Escondida’s cathode production moved in the opposite direction. Copper cathode output rose by 22% to 54,900t because of improved sulphide leach performance.

That improvement helped soften the broader decline. However, concentrate weakness still mattered because Escondida is one of the world’s most important copper operations and a major contributor to BHP copper production.

BHP expects Escondida output for July 2025-June 2026 to reach the upper half of its 1.2mn-1.275mn t guidance range. This suggests that the company still expects stronger performance across the fiscal year despite the lower quarterly concentrate result.

Pampa Norte was a clearer negative. BHP produced 25,700t of copper concentrate and 18,900t of copper cathode at the mine, down 29% and 41% year on year, respectively.

Cathode output fell because of lower planned stacked copper grade. Concentrate output declined because of weaker recovery rates.

As a result, BHP lowered Pampa Norte production guidance to 210,000-220,000t from the previous range of 230,000-250,000t. This was the main guidance cut in the company’s copper portfolio.

Pampa Norte’s weaker outlook reinforces a broader industry issue. Copper mines are not only exposed to headline ore volumes. They are exposed to grades, recovery rates, leach performance, maintenance timing and processing efficiency.

South Australia and Antamina Offset Part of the Weakness

BHP’s South Australian operations provided partial support. Copper concentrate output rose by 22% to 27,500t, while cathode production slipped by 2.3% to 55,300t.

The improvement was supported by higher feed grades at Prominent Hill and higher mined and milled volumes at Olympic Dam. This helped balance weaker results from Chile.

BHP kept South Australian copper guidance unchanged at 310,000-340,000t. The stability of this guidance is important because South Australia remains a strategic copper growth region for the company.

Antamina also performed strongly. BHP’s copper output from the Peruvian operation rose by 43% to 44,100t, supported by better feed grades and improved operational performance.

The stronger Antamina result prompted BHP to lift production guidance to 150,000-160,000t from the previous 140,000-150,000t. This upgrade helped offset the Pampa Norte downgrade at portfolio level.

The mixed operating picture explains why BHP maintained total copper guidance. Escondida and Pampa Norte reduced quarterly output, but South Australia and Antamina provided enough support to keep the group’s broader plan intact.

BHP also completed the sale of its Carajas asset to CoreX Holdings on 2 April for $240mn, with up to $225mn in contingent payments. The sale reflects ongoing portfolio management as BHP concentrates capital on larger strategic assets.

For copper markets, the key message is that supply growth remains uneven. Stronger performance at one asset can offset weakness elsewhere, but global mine supply still depends on operational execution across a small number of large producers.

BHP copper production will therefore remain a closely watched indicator through the rest of the fiscal year. The market will focus on whether Escondida grades stabilise, Pampa Norte recovers, and South Australia and Antamina continue to outperform.

The Metalnomist Commentary

BHP’s quarter shows that copper supply risk is increasingly operational, not only geological. Lower grades, weaker recoveries and leach performance can quickly offset throughput gains, keeping the market sensitive to every large-mine update.

Vale copper and nickel production outlook strengthens for 2025

Vale

Vale copper and nickel production outlook continues to improve as the Brazilian miner delivers a solid third quarter. The company reported higher copper output and broadly stable nickel production, keeping all base metal assets near the upper end of 2025 guidance. This Vale copper and nickel production outlook underscores the importance of Brazil and Canada within the group’s growth plan.

Copper growth keeps Vale on track with 2025 guidance

Vale copper and nickel production outlook is anchored by another strong performance from its copper division. Third-quarter copper production rose 6pc year-on-year to 90,800t, supported by consistent operations in Brazil and steady polymetallic output in Canada. Payable copper sales climbed 14.8pc to 90,000t, helped by smooth logistics and strong market demand.

In Brazil, Salobo drove copper growth with a 13pc output increase to 53,000t on robust mine-mill performance. Sossego slipped just 2pc to 19,900t after a week of planned maintenance, suggesting limited underlying weakness. In Canada, total copper production dipped 6pc to 18,400t as Vale ended copper-precipitate recovery at Thompson, even while Sudbury and Voisey’s Bay both delivered 11pc higher concentrate volumes.

Higher prices also lifted the Vale copper and nickel production outlook. Vale realised an average copper price of $9,818/t, up $833/t quarter-on-quarter, reflecting firmer LME benchmarks and lower treatment and refining charges. Nine-month copper output reached 274,300t, up 11.4pc year-on-year, keeping the group on pace for its 2025 guidance range of 340,000–370,000t.

Nickel production stable as new capacity comes online

Meanwhile, Vale copper and nickel production outlook on the nickel side remains stable despite heavy maintenance. Third-quarter nickel output slipped just 0.6pc to 46,800t, as refinery downtime offset strong mine performance. Nickel sales rose 5.4pc to 42,900t, although the realised nickel price eased 2.3pc to $15,445/t in line with softer LME levels.

In Canada, Sudbury’s finished nickel production fell 31pc to 8,500t because of work at the Copper Cliff refinery, even as ore mined jumped 45pc to 3.6mn t. Voisey’s Bay output surged 74pc to 10,700t, driven by the ramp-up of the Eastern Deeps and Reid Brook underground mines before a planned shutdown in September. Long Harbour refinery set a new quarterly production record, confirming the asset’s role as a core hub in Vale’s nickel chain.

Brazilian nickel production slipped 5pc to 5,900t, but Onça Puma held steady as it completed early maintenance linked to a second furnace start-up in late September. That new furnace adds 15,000 t/yr of capacity, lifting site capacity to 40,000 t/yr and setting the stage for growth from the December quarter onward. Nine-month nickel output reached 131,000t, up 14.4pc, allowing Vale to maintain its 2025 guidance of 160,000–175,000t and support a resilient Vale copper and nickel production outlook.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale copper and nickel production outlook highlights how disciplined maintenance and targeted brownfield investments can offset operational noise. Additional nickel capacity at Onça Puma and continued strength at Salobo position Vale to benefit from any upside in copper and nickel prices. For downstream users, the guidance stability signals that Vale remains a reliable anchor in an otherwise volatile base metals supply chain.

Lundin Mining Copper Production Holds Steady as Chilean Assets Drive Record Year

Lundin Mining

Lundin Mining copper production held broadly steady in the fourth quarter of 2025, helping the Canadian miner deliver record full-year copper output. The performance reinforces the strategic importance of Chilean assets in Lundin’s portfolio as global copper producers compete to secure growth in a tightening long-term supply market.

The company produced 331,232t of copper in 2025, placing Lundin Mining copper production in the upper half of its revised guidance range of 319,000-337,000t. The result was supported mainly by strong performance at Candelaria and Caserones in Chile, where higher throughput, better recoveries, and increased cathode production strengthened the group’s operating base.

Lundin Mining copper production also remained stable into the end of the year. Fourth-quarter output reached 87,032t, compared with 84,999t in the third quarter. That stability matters because copper buyers are watching not only new project pipelines, but also the ability of established producers to deliver reliable tonnes from existing assets.

Chilean Operations Strengthen Lundin’s Copper Platform

Candelaria remained Lundin’s largest copper-producing asset in 2025, delivering 145,471t of copper. The operation continues to anchor the company’s near-term supply profile and gives Lundin a strong position in one of the world’s most important copper mining jurisdictions.

Caserones also played a central role in the record year, contributing 132,881t of copper. The asset benefited from higher throughput, improved recoveries, and increased cathode output. It also achieved its highest quarterly production since Lundin acquired the operation in mid-2023, showing that the asset is becoming a more productive part of the group.

Chapada in Brazil added 43,974t of copper during the year, giving Lundin a broader South American production base beyond Chile. Gold production reached 141,859oz in 2025, while nickel production totalled 9,907t. Both were within or above guidance, supporting the company’s wider metals portfolio even as copper remains the core strategic focus.

Stable 2026 Guidance Keeps Focus on Efficiency and Growth

Lundin expects copper production to remain broadly stable at 310,000-335,000t in 2026. This suggests the company is entering the year with a focus on cost optimisation, operating discipline, and asset efficiency rather than a sharp near-term volume expansion.

Nickel output fell to 2,174t in the fourth quarter from 2,724t in the third quarter, but the result remained aligned with operational expectations. Rehabilitation work at Eagle East in the United States helped restore mining and processing rates earlier in the year, supporting a more stable operating base.

Longer term, Lundin’s growth strategy depends on asset optimisation and new project development. Further improvements at Caserones could support incremental copper gains, while the Vicuna project with BHP represents a larger strategic growth pathway. If advanced successfully, these initiatives could strengthen Lundin’s position as a more important copper producer in the global energy transition supply chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lundin’s 2025 performance shows why operational reliability is becoming as valuable as headline growth in copper mining. In a market increasingly defined by permitting delays and project scarcity, stable output from Chilean and Brazilian assets can carry real strategic weight.

Taseko Florence Copper Project Begins Cathode Production in Arizona

Taseko Mines Florence

Taseko Florence Copper project has reached a major milestone with the start of copper cathode production in Arizona. The company said production began earlier this week and expects its first cathode harvest within days. It also expects 30-35mn lbs of copper output from the Florence Copper project this year. As a result, Taseko Florence Copper project is moving from construction into commercial production.

This matters because the Florence Copper project gives Taseko a new source of Arizona copper cathode at a time when US copper supply remains strategically important. The company had already signaled in January that production was close after construction finished in the fourth quarter. Now the project has entered its next phase with actual cathode output. Therefore, Taseko Florence Copper project is becoming one of the more important near-term US copper ramp-ups.

Florence Copper Project Ramp-Up Now Depends on Wellfield Expansion

Florence Copper project still has more work ahead before reaching full production capacity. Taseko said it must expand wellfield operations to continue ramping output. The company currently has three drill rigs at the site and will add a fourth rig within the next week. As a result, the pace of wellfield expansion will directly shape how quickly the Florence Copper project reaches full operating potential.

This is important because early production milestones often attract attention, but ramp-up execution determines the project’s real long-term value. A smooth wellfield expansion would improve confidence in the company’s operating plan. However, delays could slow the path toward higher Arizona copper cathode volumes. Meanwhile, the current 2025 guidance gives the market a clear first benchmark for performance.

Taseko Copper Production Gains Support Beyond Florence

Taseko copper production is also expected to improve beyond Arizona. The company expects output at its Gibraltar mine in British Columbia to rise to 110-115mn lbs in 2026 from 98mn lbs in 2025. Gibraltar also produced 2.2mn lbs of copper cathode last year. Therefore, Taseko copper production is being supported by both a new US project and a stronger Canadian base.

The broader financial picture remains mixed. Taseko reported an annual loss in 2025, although it returned to quarterly profit in the fourth quarter. That makes the Florence Copper project even more important to the company’s growth story. Consequently, stronger production from Florence and Gibraltar could become central to improving financial performance over the next year.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This start-up matters because Florence is no longer a development promise. It is now a producing copper asset with clear near-term output targets. If Taseko manages the wellfield ramp-up effectively, Florence could become a more meaningful part of the North American copper supply story.

KGHM Copper Production Falls 6% in Q1 Despite Strong Pricing Environment

KGHM

KGHM copper production declined 6% year-over-year to 169,000 tonnes in the first quarter as planned maintenance shutdowns and asset divestments offset operational improvements. The Polish copper producer faced reduced output from planned maintenance at its Glogow II smelter and the February sale of Canada's McCreedy West mine. However, KGHM copper production remained aligned with company budget targets while benefiting from stronger copper prices and diversified sales strategies across global markets.

Polish Operations Maintain Stability Amid Planned Maintenance Activities

KGHM's Polish assets delivered consistent performance with 99,400 tonnes of copper concentrate production and 134,000 tonnes of electrolytic copper output during the quarter. These production levels met company targets despite the scheduled maintenance shutdown at the Glogow II smelter facility. Meanwhile, the company's Polish operations continue serving as the backbone of overall production capacity and revenue generation.

The planned maintenance activities demonstrated KGHM's commitment to operational excellence and long-term asset sustainability. These scheduled shutdowns ensure optimal equipment performance and safety standards across the Polish mining complex. Therefore, the temporary production impact reflects strategic maintenance planning rather than operational challenges or market-driven constraints.

International Assets Show Mixed Performance Across Geographic Regions

Sierra Gorda mine in Chile delivered exceptional performance with 20,800 tonnes of copper production, representing a 22% increase from the previous year. KGHM holds a 55% ownership stake in this strategic Chilean asset, which benefited from higher ore grades and improved recovery rates. As a result, Sierra Gorda's strong performance partially offset production declines from other international operations.

KGHM International assets in North America experienced contrasting results, with production falling 10% to 14,400 tonnes due to strategic portfolio changes. The February sale of Canada's McCreedy West mine removed production capacity while lower recovery rates at the US Robinson mine further reduced output. However, these international operations remain important components of KGHM's geographic diversification strategy.

Revenue performance demonstrated resilience despite lower production volumes, rising 8% to 8.9 billion zlotys ($2.35 billion) through the quarter. The three-month LME copper contract averaged $9,411 per tonne, significantly higher than the $8,537 per tonne recorded in the previous year. Consequently, strong copper pricing compensated for production declines while supporting overall financial performance and investment capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

KGHM's Q1 results highlight the copper industry's current dynamics where strong pricing environments can offset temporary production challenges from maintenance and portfolio optimization. The company's planned 3.8 billion zloty investment program for 2025, focusing on underground development and shaft sinking, positions KGHM for long-term growth despite near-term production volatility from operational and strategic factors.

Vale Copper Production Growth Plan Targets 700,000 t/yr by 2035

Vale

Vale copper production growth is moving into a more ambitious phase as the Brazilian miner targets 700,000 t/yr by 2035. The company produced 382,000t of copper in 2025, beating its guidance of 370,000t. Management now says it aims to nearly double production over the next decade. As a result, Vale copper production growth is becoming a more important part of the global copper supply story.

This matters because large new copper volumes are increasingly difficult to secure. Demand from electrification, grid investment, and industrial expansion continues to support a stronger long-term copper outlook. Vale is positioning itself to capture that growth with a mix of brownfield and regional expansion. Therefore, Vale copper expansion is no longer a secondary objective inside the group.

The company expects an additional 80,000 t/yr of copper capacity to come online by 2029. That near-term increase gives the market a clearer first step before the longer 2035 target. Consequently, Vale copper production growth now has both an immediate and a strategic timeline.

Carajas Copper Projects Will Lead the Next Capacity Increase

Carajas copper projects are expected to play the central role in Vale’s expansion strategy. The Bacaba project in northern Brazil should add 50,000 t/yr of capacity from the second half of 2028. That makes Bacaba one of the most important pillars of the company’s near-term copper plan. As a result, Carajas copper projects are becoming the operational core of Vale copper expansion.

Vale is also advancing the Coarse Particle Flotation project at the Salobo complex. That initiative is expected to add another 30,000 t/yr of capacity. Together, Bacaba and Salobo account for the full 80,000 t/yr increase expected by 2029. Therefore, Vale copper production growth is being built on identifiable projects rather than distant ambition alone.

The Alemao project could add further upside later. Vale is still seeking permits to advance that development in the Carajas region. Meanwhile, the company is clearly using Carajas as the center of its long-term copper buildout.

Vale Copper Expansion Comes Alongside Broader Base Metals Growth

Vale copper expansion is also part of a wider base metals push across the portfolio. The company expects nickel output to rise through the ramp-up of the Voisey’s Bay mine extension and full operation of the second furnace at Onca Puma. That means copper growth is happening alongside stronger nickel ambitions. As a result, Vale is reinforcing its position in metals tied to electrification and industrial transition.

The company also plans to lift throughput at the Sudbury basin in Canada to 7mn t/yr from 5mn t/yr over the coming years. While no specific timeline was given, the direction is clear. Vale wants more scale across its base metals assets. Consequently, Vale copper production growth should be viewed as part of a broader strategic reshaping of the company.

This wider context matters because copper growth alone does not define long-term competitiveness. Producers that can expand several critical metals at once may gain stronger relevance in global supply chains. Therefore, Vale copper expansion looks even more important when placed inside its larger base metals strategy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale’s copper target matters because it combines delivered outperformance with a credible expansion path in Carajas. The most important point is not just the 2035 target. It is that Vale already has the first building blocks in place to move meaningfully toward it. If execution stays on track, Vale could become a much stronger force in global copper supply over the next decade.

KGHM Copper Production Fell in 2025 Despite Stronger Earnings

KGHM

KGHM copper production declined in 2025 after planned maintenance at the Glogow II smelter and refinery in Poland and the first-quarter sale of the McCreedy West mine in Canada. The group’s full-year payable copper output fell 3% on the year to 710,000t.

KGHM copper production was also affected by weaker performance at its North American assets. KGHM International produced 52,200t of payable copper in 2025, down 14% from the previous year, because of the McCreedy West sale, lower recovery rates, and lower copper content in feed.

The weaker KGHM copper production result was partly offset by stronger output from the Sierra Gorda mine in Chile. Payable copper attributable to KGHM’s 55% stake in Sierra Gorda rose 8% on the year to 86,800t, supported by higher copper grades and better recovery rates.

Polish Smelter Maintenance Weighed on Copper Output

KGHM’s Polish operations remained the group’s core production base in 2025. Electrolytic copper production from Polish assets fell 3% on the year to 570,900t because of planned maintenance at Glogow II.

Fourth-quarter electrolytic copper output in Poland rose 1.6% on the year to 149,000t, showing some recovery after maintenance-related disruption. Copper in concentrate from Polish assets totalled 401,100t for the full year, broadly flat compared with 2024.

The results show that KGHM’s Polish copper chain remains operationally stable, but smelter and refinery availability can still influence annual payable production. For European copper supply, this matters because domestic smelting and refining capacity is becoming increasingly strategic as concentrate markets tighten.

Sierra Gorda and Higher Prices Supported Financial Performance

Sierra Gorda delivered a stronger result in 2025 and helped offset weakness elsewhere in the portfolio. KGHM’s attributable copper output from the Chilean mine rose because of better ore grades and recovery rates, while fourth-quarter output increased 6% on the year to 21,900t.

The mine also strengthened KGHM’s by-product profile. Sierra Gorda produced 5mn lb, or 2.27mn kg, of molybdenum in 2025, up 53% from the previous year.

Despite lower copper production, KGHM’s financial performance improved. Group net profit rose 28% on the year to 3.7bn zlotys, while EBITDA increased 22% to 10.3bn zlotys. Stronger copper prices helped support earnings, with the three-month LME copper contract averaging $9,965/t in 2025, up 7% from the previous year.

The Metalnomist Commentary

KGHM’s 2025 results show that copper producers can still improve earnings even when output falls, if prices and asset mix move in their favour. The stronger Sierra Gorda contribution also underlines the value of higher-grade, internationally diversified copper assets.

Global Refined Copper Surplus Expands as Smelter Output Outpaces Demand

Copper

Global refined copper surplus widened sharply in 2025 as refined production grew faster than consumption despite persistent mine disruptions. The International Copper Study Group reported a preliminary surplus of 380,000t, up from 69,000t in 2024, signaling a looser refined market balance than many copper buyers expected.

The global refined copper surplus reached 437,000t after adjusting for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks. This reflected strong refined production growth, particularly in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo, even as mine supply growth remained constrained by operational incidents, lower grades, and major disruptions at key assets.

World refined copper production rose by 4.2pc to 28.54mn t in 2025. Primary output increased by 3.9pc, while secondary production from scrap rose by 5.8pc. The expansion shows that smelting, refining, and recycling capacity can continue lifting refined supply even when mine growth remains limited.

China and the DRC Drive Refined Copper Output Growth

China and the DRC were the main drivers of refined copper production growth in 2025. Together, they account for around 57pc of global refined output and recorded combined growth of about 9pc. Excluding these two countries, world refined production fell by around 1.8pc, showing how concentrated refined copper growth has become.

Asia outside China faced weaker production. Output fell by 3.7pc as maintenance shutdowns in Japan reduced the country’s production by 8.2pc and the Pasar refinery in the Philippines closed. Indonesia added new capacity through the Amman and Manyar smelters, but operational issues and disruptions linked to Grasberg limited the impact.

Chile also weighed on refined supply outside the main growth centres. Refined copper production fell by 10pc, with electrolytic output from concentrates down 16pc amid maintenance shutdowns. SX-EW production also declined by 6.8pc, reinforcing the pressure on one of the world’s most important copper-producing countries.

Mine Disruptions Keep Supply Risk Alive Despite Higher Inventories

Mine production increased by only around 1pc to 23.13mn t in 2025. Concentrate output was broadly flat, while SX-EW output rose by 3pc. New projects supported growth, but lower grades and operational disruptions prevented a stronger mine-side recovery.

Major incidents at Kamoa and Grasberg were especially important. Kamoa’s output fell after a seismic incident, while Indonesian mine production dropped by around 43pc because of lower Batu Hijau output, Grasberg maintenance, and the mud rush incident at Grasberg. These events show why copper supply risk remains high even when refined inventories are rising.

Consumption also grew, but not fast enough to absorb new refined supply. World apparent refined copper usage rose by about 3pc to 28.16mn t. Chinese apparent demand increased by around 4pc, but net refined imports fell by 15pc as imports declined and exports jumped. Outside China, growth in parts of Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa offset weakness in the EU and Japan.

The global refined copper surplus became more visible late in the year. December refined production reached 2.43mn t, while usage was 2.26mn t, creating a monthly surplus of 173,000t. Global refined stocks rose to 1.776mn t at year-end, while exchange stocks at the LME, Comex, and SHFE reached 933,641t at the end of January 2026, the highest level since September 2003.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The global refined copper surplus does not remove copper’s long-term supply challenge, but it changes the near-term market psychology. Copper now faces a split reality: refined metal looks looser, while mine disruptions still threaten the concentrate pipeline behind future supply.

Teck Copper Production Rises as All Four Mines Lift First-Quarter Output

Teck

Teck copper production rose sharply in the first quarter as all four of the Canadian miner’s copper operations delivered higher output. The company produced 140,000t of copper in January-March, up 32% from a year earlier.

Teck copper production growth was broad-based, with gains from Quebrada Blanca, Highland Valley, Antamina and Carmen de Andacollo. The result strengthens Teck’s position in a market increasingly focused on copper supply security for grids, electrification and industrial infrastructure.

Teck copper production remains on track with the company’s 2026 guidance of 455,000-530,000t. The first-quarter performance gives Teck a strong start to the year, despite planned maintenance at Quebrada Blanca and mixed recovery performance at some assets.

The stronger copper result also supported earnings. Teck reported first-quarter profit of C$809mn, up from C$313mn a year earlier.

Quebrada Blanca and Highland Valley Drive Copper Growth

Quebrada Blanca produced 55,500t of copper in the first quarter, up 31% from a year earlier. The increase came despite a planned maintenance shutdown early in the period.

Teck is implementing an action plan at Quebrada Blanca this year to improve production. The mine remains central to the company’s copper growth profile in Chile.

Highland Valley in Canada also delivered a strong quarter. Copper output rose by 36% to 40,200t, mainly because of higher grades and stronger mill throughput.

Lower recovery rates partly offset the improvement at Highland Valley. Still, the mine’s performance shows how grade and throughput improvements can quickly lift output when processing capacity is available.

Antamina in Peru also contributed to the copper increase. The mine, jointly owned by Teck, BHP, Glencore and Mitsubishi, produced 135,000t of copper, up 42%.

Carmen de Andacollo in Chile produced 13,900t, up 7% from a year earlier. Higher copper grades and stronger recovery rates supported the increase.

The result highlights the value of portfolio diversification. Teck’s copper growth did not depend on one asset alone, reducing the operational risk of isolated maintenance or recovery issues.

Zinc Weakness Offsets Some Base Metals Strength

Teck’s zinc performance was weaker than copper. Total zinc-in-concentrate production fell by 12% to 120,300t, reflecting planned activity at Red Dog and Antamina.

Zinc sales fell more sharply, dropping by 35% to 69,700t. This reduced the contribution from Teck’s zinc concentrate business during the quarter.

However, refined zinc output at Trail in British Columbia rose by 27% to 73,800t. The Trail operation remains important because it connects Teck’s mining output with downstream refined metal and by-product production.

By-product output at Trail, including silver and germanium, was steady on the year. Germanium remains strategically important because of its use in fibre optics, infrared systems, semiconductors and defence-related applications.

Teck is working with the Canadian government to explore options to increase germanium production. This could strengthen Canada’s role in critical minerals supply, especially as western buyers seek more non-Chinese sources of minor metals.

The Middle East conflict is not expected to significantly disrupt Teck’s fuel supply. However, the company warned that higher diesel costs could affect its Chilean operations, where fuel must be imported.

This cost risk matters for copper miners. Even when production is strong, fuel, reagents, logistics and power costs can influence margins and project economics.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Teck’s first-quarter copper growth shows the strategic value of diversified mine exposure across Canada, Chile and Peru. The next focus will be whether Quebrada Blanca’s action plan can convert early momentum into sustained copper growth while zinc and diesel cost pressures remain manageable.

Rio Tinto’s 3Q Copper and Aluminium Production Declines, Bauxite Output Rises

Rio Tinto’s

Rio Tinto, the UK-Australian mining giant, posted moderate declines in mined copper and primary aluminium production in the third quarter of 2024. However, the company saw overall output growth during the first nine months of the year.

Copper Production Declines Amid Challenges at Key Mines

In the third quarter, Rio Tinto’s mined copper production dropped by 1% year-on-year, reaching 167,800 tonnes. This decline was largely due to a significant 44% decrease at the Kennecott mine in the United States, where geological issues, including ground movement, restricted access to high-grade ore, forcing the use of lower-grade material. However, the company’s Escondida mine in Chile showed a 15% increase in output, driven by higher ore grades, and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia experienced a 19% production boost due to increased operational efficiency.

For the first nine months of 2024, Rio Tinto's mined copper production increased by 8% year-on-year, totalling 494,700 tonnes. Meanwhile, refined copper production surged by 59% in Q3, reaching 54,300 tonnes, thanks to a 129% increase at Kennecott following its smelter and refinery rebuild in the previous quarter. This was partially offset by a 24% drop in Escondida’s refined copper output due to lower ore grades. Overall, Rio Tinto’s refined copper production for January-September was up by 39% to 179,600 tonnes.

Aluminium Production Experiences Setbacks

Rio Tinto's primary aluminium production in Q3 fell by 2% year-on-year to 809,000 tonnes. This also represented a 2% drop from the previous quarter. However, aluminium production for the first nine months of 2024 was up by 1%, totalling 2.46 million tonnes. The decline in Q3 was linked to operational issues at the New Zealand Aluminium Smelters subsidiary, where Meridian Energy halted plans for a 600 MW renewable hydrogen and ammonia project due to economic and logistical challenges. As a result, the company expects to ramp up the smelter at Tiwai Peninsula in New Zealand by the second quarter of 2025.

Rio Tinto is also focusing on sustainability. In August 2024, Rio Tinto entered a partnership with the Queensland state government in Australia to ensure the long-term future of its Boyne smelter by transitioning to renewable energy sources.

Bauxite Production Shows Growth

Bauxite production, another key commodity for Rio Tinto, increased by 8% year-on-year in Q3 to 15.1 million tonnes. This growth was driven by higher utilisation rates at Rio Tinto’s Amrun mine in Weipa, Australia, following the implementation of the company’s Safe Production System in 2021. The system uses data-driven insights to optimize maintenance scheduling and prevent bottlenecking. Total bauxite production for the first nine months of 2024 rose by 9% year-on-year, totalling 43.2 million tonnes.

Outlook for 2024

Looking ahead, Rio Tinto expects to produce between 660,000 and 720,000 tonnes of mined copper and 230,000 to 260,000 tonnes of refined copper for the remainder of 2024, indicating a steady production forecast for the rest of the year despite the challenges faced in Q3.

Glencore Copper Production Rises as DRC Cobalt Quota Reshapes Output Priorities

Glencore

Glencore copper production rose sharply in the first quarter as higher grades at its African copper mines and stronger throughput at Antamina lifted output. The Switzerland-based trading and mining group produced 199,600t of copper, up 19% from a year earlier.

Glencore copper production growth contrasts with a steep fall in cobalt output. Own-sourced cobalt production dropped by 39% to 5,800t, mainly because the Democratic Republic of Congo’s export quota system has changed how producers manage shipments and mine planning.

Glencore copper production is now becoming more important inside its DRC asset base because cobalt export limits have made copper the clearer operating priority. This shift shows how state policy can directly reshape output behaviour in multi-metal mining systems.

The company maintained full-year production guidance for copper, nickel and zinc, despite weaker output in several other metals. Copper guidance remains at 810,000-870,000t for the year.

DRC Quota System Pushes Cobalt Lower

The sharp fall in cobalt output reflects the DRC’s quota system, introduced after the country moved away from its earlier export ban framework. The system capped shipments and set annual limits for 2026-27, with an additional strategic pool.

For Glencore, the practical effect is clear. Its DRC assets are now prioritising copper production because copper can move through the market with fewer quota-related constraints.

This matters for battery and superalloy supply chains. The DRC remains the world’s dominant source of mined cobalt, so export policy can quickly affect availability, pricing and producer behaviour.

Cobalt is not produced in isolation at many Congolese operations. It is often linked to copper mining, which means policy limits on cobalt can influence mine sequencing, processing priorities and inventory decisions.

The first-quarter numbers therefore point to a more managed cobalt market. Supply is not only a function of ore grades and plant capacity. It is increasingly controlled by export approvals, quotas and state strategy.

Copper benefited from stronger grades at African operations and higher throughput at Antamina in Peru. That performance reinforces copper’s stronger strategic position at a time when demand from grids, electrification, industrial policy and data centres continues to attract market attention.

Nickel, Zinc and Ferro-Chrome Show Operational Pressure

Glencore’s nickel output fell by 9% to 17,200t. The decline was caused by a furnace disruption at the Sudbury complex in Canada, which affected matte shipment timing to Norway.

Nickel guidance remained unchanged at 70,000-80,000t. This suggests Glencore sees the first-quarter weakness as manageable rather than a full-year supply reset.

Zinc output fell by 17% to 176,900t. The decline was mainly linked to the closure of the Lady Loretta mine in Australia and lower output from Kazzinc in Kazakhstan.

Zinc guidance also remained unchanged at 700,000-740,000t. However, the first-quarter result shows how mine closures and regional production issues can still weigh on quarterly availability.

Ferro-chrome output collapsed by 95% to 13,000t because of continued care and maintenance at Glencore’s chrome smelting operations and the phased restart of the Lion Smelter in South Africa.

South African ferro-chrome remains under pressure from high energy prices and competition from lower-cost Chinese material. This has forced output cuts at major producers and weakened South Africa’s position in global ferro-alloy supply.

Glencore’s vanadium pentoxide production rose by 5% to 2,300t, offering a small positive signal in another strategic alloy material.

Overall, the quarter shows a company benefiting from copper strength while managing policy and cost pressures across cobalt, nickel, zinc and ferro-chrome. The most important signal is that copper and cobalt are now being shaped by very different forces: copper by grade and throughput, cobalt by DRC export control.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s results show how government policy can be as powerful as geology in multi-metal supply chains. The DRC cobalt quota is not only reducing cobalt output; it is pushing producers to prioritise copper in one of the world’s most strategic mining regions.

Antofagasta Maintains Copper Production Guidance for 2025 Amid Incremental Increase at Centinela Mine

Antofagasta

London-listed mining company Antofagasta has kept its copper production guidance steady for 2025, projecting flat output compared to 2024. Despite the stable forecast, the company expects an incremental increase in copper concentrate output at its Centinela mine in Chile.

2024 and 2025 Copper Production Outlook

Antofagasta confirmed that it is on track to meet its copper production guidance for 2024, expecting to finish the year at the lower end of its previously set range of 670,000-710,000 metric tonnes (t) of copper. For 2025, the company projects production to range between 660,000-700,000t, maintaining a stable output despite the minor increase at Centinela. The increase is attributed to a boost in concentrate production at the mine, although specific details were not provided.

Third Quarter Performance

In the third quarter, Antofagasta reported a 3% year-on-year increase in copper production, rising to 179,000t from 173,600t in the same period last year. The increase was largely driven by a partial destocking of inventories at its Los Pelambres mine and improvements in copper grades and recoveries at the Centinela mine. These efforts contributed to a 15.3% quarter-on-quarter rise in copper output, reflecting the company’s ongoing optimization at its operations.

Copper Sales and Molybdenum Production

Alongside the increase in copper output, Antofagasta's copper sales grew by nearly 11.4% year-on-year to reach 176,500t in Q3, marking a 9.3% increase compared to the previous quarter. However, the company faced a decline in molybdenum production, which fell 15% year-on-year to 2,700t. Despite this, it showed an 8% improvement compared to Q2 2024.

Chile's Role in Global Copper Supply

As the world’s largest copper-producing nation, Chile plays a central role in Antofagasta's operations. The company operates four mines in the country, including the Los Pelambres and Centinela mines, which are key contributors to global copper supply. Despite challenges in the mining sector, Antofagasta continues to focus on efficiency improvements and maintaining its production levels.

Antofagasta’s stable production guidance for 2025 comes as the global copper market braces for ongoing fluctuations in demand, particularly from industries like electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy. The company's consistent output is indicative of its robust position in the global copper market, with its operations in Chile continuing to be a significant driver for the industry.

Vale Sees Rise in Nickel and Copper Output in 3Q Amid Maintenance Challenges

Vale

Brazilian multi-metals mining group Vale reported a year-on-year increase in nickel production for the third quarter of 2024, driven primarily by higher output from its Canadian mines, including Sudbury and Voisey’s Bay. However, the company’s total production for the first nine months of the year was slightly down compared to the same period in 2023, largely due to longer-than-expected maintenance shutdowns at several key mines.

Nickel Production Boosted by Canadian Mines

Vale's nickel production rose by 12% year-on-year, reaching 47,100 tonnes during the July-September period. However, the total production for the first nine months of the year was 4.7% lower than in 2023, with 114,400 tonnes of nickel produced. A significant contributor to the growth was the Sudbury mine, where finished nickel production increased by 84% year-on-year, reaching 12,300 tonnes. This was primarily due to the resumption of smelting and refining operations at Sudbury, following its biennial maintenance shutdown.

In addition, production at Voisey’s Bay saw a significant increase, rising by 56.4% year-on-year to 6,100 tonnes, thanks to higher nickel grades following extended maintenance work. Vale also reported a 55% increase in production from its Thompson mine, which reached 3,100 tonnes.

Challenges and Power Disruption in Brazil

In Brazil, production from the Onça Puma mine increased by 7% to 6,200 tonnes, following a furnace rebuild. However, the mine experienced a power disruption after a severe windstorm damaged a local utility company's transmission line, which impacted operations. Despite this, Vale's performance in Brazil’s nickel sector remained robust.

Indonesia and Third-Party Contributions

Vale’s nickel production from Indonesia saw a dramatic rise, nearly tripling year-on-year to 19,300 tonnes in the third quarter. This increase was driven by the offtake from third-party suppliers and production from its subsidiary, PT Vale Indonesia.

Copper Production Up Despite Setbacks at Salobo Mine

Vale’s copper production also saw growth, with a 5.3% increase in the third quarter, reaching 85,900 tonnes. Over the first nine months of the year, copper output rose by 8.3% to 246,300 tonnes. At the Salobo mine in Brazil, production was impacted by a conveyor belt fire at Salobo’s third plant, which led to a 6% decline in output. However, higher production at its other two plants helped mitigate the losses.

The Sossego mine also performed well, with production rising by 15.2% to 19,700 tonnes, thanks to stronger output and improved feed grades after the mine’s operational license was reinstated in June.

In Canada, Vale’s copper production surged by 31.5% to 19,600 tonnes, further contributing to the overall rise in copper production for the quarter.

Production Guidance for 2024

Vale has maintained its production guidance for 2024, with an expected output of 153,000-168,000 tonnes of nickel and 320,000-355,000 tonnes of copper.

Grasberg Copper Disruption Cuts Freeport Output but Supports 2026 Recovery Story

Grasberg copper mining

Grasberg copper disruption drove a steep decline in Freeport copper output in 2025. The company produced 3.38bn lb of refined copper. That was down from 4.21bn lb in 2024. As a result, Indonesia copper production became the main drag on group performance.

However, higher metal prices protected earnings despite weaker copper volumes. Freeport realised an average copper price of $4.75/lb in 2025. That was above $4.21/lb a year earlier. Meanwhile, Freeport molybdenum production also rose and added further support.

Indonesia Copper Production Became Freeport’s Main Weak Spot

Indonesia copper production fell sharply after the September suspension at Grasberg Block Cave. Freeport’s Indonesian copper output dropped to 1.02bn lb in 2025. That compared with 1.8bn lb in 2024. Therefore, Grasberg copper disruption reshaped the company’s regional balance.

Fourth-quarter performance showed the full impact of the disruption. Copper production fell by 62pc year on year to 640mn lb. Sales still beat internal guidance because inventories in Indonesia declined faster than expected. However, quarterly sales remained far below late-2024 levels.

Regional trends outside Indonesia looked mixed rather than weak. US copper operations improved on better ore grades and leaching activity. South American production declined because of lower grades and lower throughput. As a result, Freeport copper output depended heavily on the lost Indonesian volumes.

Freeport Molybdenum Production and Higher Prices Supported Profitability

Freeport molybdenum production helped offset the copper shock in 2025. Molybdenum output rose to 92mn lb from 80mn lb. Sales also increased to 83mn lb from 78mn lb. Consequently, by-product strength softened the earnings impact from copper losses.

Higher realised prices also improved Freeport’s financial resilience. Fourth-quarter realised copper prices climbed to $5.33/lb from $4.15/lb a year earlier. Molybdenum prices also moved higher. Therefore, stronger pricing helped the company post better profitability despite lower output.

Freeport’s fourth-quarter net income rose to $406mn from $274mn a year earlier. Unit cash costs increased in the fourth quarter because Grasberg volumes fell. Still, costs remained below earlier company estimates. That result showed disciplined cost control under difficult operating conditions.

Freeport now expects a phased Grasberg restart from the second quarter of 2026. It aims to restore about 85pc of normal production in the second half. Consolidated copper sales are forecast at around 3.4bn lb in 2026. Therefore, the market will watch execution in Indonesia very closely.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Freeport’s 2025 results show how one major asset can still dominate global copper narratives. Grasberg copper disruption hurt volumes, but price strength and molybdenum kept margins alive. If the 2026 restart stays on track, Freeport could re-enter the market with much stronger operating leverage.

Glencore Copper and Nickel Output Weakens as Grade Pressure Hits 2025 Performance

Glencore

Glencore copper and nickel output weakened in 2025 as grade pressure and operational constraints reduced production across key assets. Own-sourced copper production fell 11pc to 851,600t. Own-sourced nickel production also declined. As a result, Glencore copper and nickel output reflected a difficult year for ore quality, maintenance, and mine sequencing.

The copper decline was driven by several large operations. Collahuasi posted the biggest drop because of complex stockpiled ore and water constraints. Antamina also saw lower grades from planned mining sequences. Meanwhile, Antapaccay faced harder ore and throughput limits. Mount Isa production also fell after the MICO mine closure.

Nickel performance showed similar pressure. Glencore’s own-sourced nickel output totalled 71,900t in 2025. Lower production at INO in Canada and Murrin Murrin in Australia weighed on results. Furnace disruption and maintenance downtime were the main causes. Therefore, Glencore copper and nickel output declined for both geological and operational reasons.

Second-Half Recovery Helped Glencore Copper Production Stabilise

Glencore copper production improved sharply in the second half of the year. Own-sourced output in July-December rose 48pc from the first half. Better grades at KCC in the DRC supported that recovery. Antamina also improved after an earlier safety stoppage, while Antapaccay benefited from resumed leaching operations.

This rebound matters because it shows the company still has recovery potential inside its portfolio. The second-half improvement did not erase the annual decline, but it changed the tone. It suggests the worst operating conditions may not persist through 2026. However, mine sequencing remains a continuing risk.

Collahuasi remains especially important to watch. Water constraints there began easing after commissioning of a new desalination plant in the second half. If that support continues, copper production could become more stable. Consequently, Glencore copper production may hold firmer in 2026 than the 2025 headline suggests.

Glencore Nickel Production Outlook Points to Only Modest Recovery

Glencore nickel production also improved late in the year, but the recovery remained limited. Fourth-quarter nickel output rose nearly a quarter from July-September to 19,500t. INO recovered after earlier smelter disruption. However, Murrin Murrin still faced maintenance-related pressure.

That explains why 2026 guidance looks cautious rather than aggressive. Copper guidance of 810,000-870,000t is broadly in line with 2025. Nickel guidance of 70,000-80,000t suggests only a modest recovery. Therefore, management still expects grade variability and operational discipline to define performance.

The broader message is clear. Glencore is not facing a collapse in production capacity. It is dealing with portfolio complexity, asset-specific constraints, and uneven recovery across operations. As a result, Glencore copper and nickel output may remain stable, but not yet fully restored to earlier levels.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s 2025 results show how quickly diversified mining portfolios can still be hit by grade and sequencing issues. The second-half rebound is encouraging, but the 2026 outlook remains cautious for good reason. This is a recovery story, but not yet a full reset.

BHP Reports Higher Copper Output in July-December, Driven by Strong Escondida Production

BHP

Escondida’s Growth Offsets Declines in Other Operations

BHP, one of the world’s largest mining companies, reported a 10% increase in copper production for July-December 2024, reaching 987,000 tonnes. This growth was primarily driven by higher output from the Escondida mine in Chile, which hit a 10-year high. The strong Escondida performance offset declining production from Pampa Norte, South Australia, and the Antamina mine in Peru.

The company maintained its 2024-25 copper production guidance at 1.85 million-2.05 million tonnes, reinforcing its position as a key player in the global copper market.

Regional Copper Production Performance

Production at Escondida surged 22% year-on-year to 644,000 tonnes, benefiting from higher-grade ore feed and improved recovery rates. Output guidance for 2024-25 remains at 1.18 million-1.3 million tonnes, highlighting continued operational stability.

Conversely, Pampa Norte’s copper production declined by 9% to 126,000 tonnes, mainly due to the temporary care and maintenance of the Cerro Colorado mine. Meanwhile, Spence mine output fell slightly by 1%, but its production guidance remains between 240,000-270,000 tonnes.

In South Australia, copper production dropped by 6% to 145,000 tonnes due to a power outage in October caused by a severe lightning storm. However, operations rebounded, producing 30,000 tonnes in December. Consequently, BHP lowered its South Australian 2024-25 guidance from 310,000-340,000 tonnes to 300,000-325,000 tonnes.

The Antamina mine in Peru saw a 7% drop in production, totaling 67,000 tonnes, due to planned lower throughput and declining ore grades. Despite this, output guidance remains unchanged at 115,000-135,000 tonnes.

Copper Prices and Nickel Market Challenges

BHP’s average realised copper price increased by 9% to $3.99/lb, closely following the London Metal Exchange (LME) price surge of 12% to an average of $9,331/t for July-December.

Meanwhile, nickel prices fell, impacting BHP’s earnings. The company’s average realised nickel price dropped 12% to $16,386/t, aligning with the LME’s 14% drop in class 1 nickel prices to $16,401/t.

Nickel production plummeted 31% to 28,000 tonnes, as BHP suspended operations at its Western Australian nickel division in October. Given the uncertain market conditions, no production guidance has been issued for nickel in 2024-25.

Cost Guidance Updates and Future Outlook

BHP maintained its unit cost guidance at $1.30-$1.60/lb at Escondida and $2-$2.30/lb at Spence. However, due to increased costs in South Australia, the company revised its cost guidance there to the upper half of $1.30-$1.80/lb.

Despite operational challenges in South Australia and Pampa Norte, strong copper prices and Escondida’s production boost have positioned BHP for a resilient 2024-25 fiscal year. With global copper demand rising, the company remains a key player in supplying critical metals for the energy transition.

ICSG Copper Surplus Forecast Challenges Bullish Near-Term Market Narrative

Copper

ICSG copper surplus forecast has shifted the refined copper market outlook from deficit to surplus, challenging the more bullish tone around copper prices and strategic demand. The International Copper Study Group now expects a refined copper surplus of 96,000t in 2026 and 377,000t in 2027.

The revision marks a major change from ICSG’s October outlook, which had projected a 150,000t deficit for 2026. The new ICSG copper surplus forecast reflects weaker-than-expected demand growth and stronger secondary refined copper output.

The refined copper market is still exposed to mine disruption, lower ore grades and geopolitical risk. However, the latest forecast suggests that scrap-based production and slower consumption can offset some of the tightness from constrained mine supply.

ICSG expects global adjusted mine production to reach 23.559mn t in 2026 and 24.103mn t in 2027. Adjusted refined production is forecast at 28.76mn t in 2026 and 29.613mn t in 2027, while refined usage is expected at 28.664mn t and 29.236mn t.

Secondary Output and Slower Demand Ease Refined Copper Tightness

The biggest change in the ICSG copper surplus forecast comes from the refined side of the market. Stronger secondary output is expected to help balance constrained primary supply.

Refined copper production is forecast to grow by only 0.4% in 2026 before rising by 3% in 2027. Constrained concentrate availability will limit primary electrolytic growth this year, but solvent extraction-electrowinning and scrap-based output should provide support.

For 2027, ICSG expects primary refined copper production to rise by 2.3%, while secondary refined production increases by 5.7%. This gives scrap a larger role in balancing the market.

This matters because copper supply discussions often focus heavily on mines. But refined copper availability also depends on scrap collection, processing economics, smelter operations, SX-EW output and regional refined production.

Demand growth has also been revised lower. ICSG now expects refined usage to increase by 1.6% in 2026, down from its previous 2.1% forecast.

The downgrade reflects uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and disrupted trade flows. Chinese refined copper usage is expected to rise by 1.9% in 2026, while demand outside China grows by 1.3%.

Global refined usage is forecast to rise by 2% in 2027. Asia will remain the main growth engine, while EU and Japanese consumption are expected to stay subdued.

Asia outside Asean and CIS states will remain by far the largest refined copper-consuming region. Usage is projected at 20.469mn t in 2026 and 20.907mn t in 2027.

Mine Supply Risks Still Support Copper’s Strategic Value

ICSG’s near-term surplus forecast does not remove copper’s longer-term supply risk. The group revised down its 2026 mine production growth forecast to 1.6% from 2.3%, citing weaker growth in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile and Indonesia.

Output at Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa in the DRC remains constrained after major incidents in 2025. These disruptions show how quickly copper mine supply can tighten when large assets underperform.

Mine production growth is expected to recover to 2.3% in 2027. ICSG expects support from Chile, Zambia, Indonesia and the DRC, along with ramp-ups at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, Malmyz in Russia, Julong in China and Almalyk in Uzbekistan.

Still, mine supply remains structurally difficult. Declining ore grades, slow permitting, higher capital intensity and longer project timelines continue to limit how quickly the industry can respond to higher prices.

Copper demand also retains strong strategic drivers. Energy transition investment, grid expansion, urbanisation, digitalisation, data centres and new semi-finished product capacity should continue to support long-term consumption.

This creates a split market narrative. On paper, refined copper may move into surplus in 2026 and 2027. Strategically, copper remains central to electrification, artificial intelligence infrastructure, manufacturing and industrial policy.

ICSG also warned that actual balances could diverge from forecasts. Its Chinese apparent demand calculation excludes changes in unreported stocks, including State Reserve Bureau, producer, consumer, trader and bonded inventories.

That caveat is important. Copper inventories can move through hidden channels, making the refined market appear looser or tighter than reported balances suggest.

The ICSG copper surplus forecast therefore does not end the bullish long-term copper case. It does, however, caution against assuming immediate refined scarcity when secondary supply is rising and demand outside China remains soft.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The ICSG copper surplus forecast shows that copper’s strategic story and near-term balance sheet can move in different directions. Data centres, grids and electrification support the long-term thesis, but scrap growth and weaker demand may keep the refined market looser than bullish headlines suggest.