Indonesian Cobalt Production Capacity Set to Double by 2027

Indonesian Cobalt

Indonesian cobalt production capacity will more than double to 114,000 tonnes by 2027 from 55,000 tonnes in 2024, according to National Economic Council member Septian Hario Seto. The expansion comes from Indonesia's high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) operations, which process nickel laterite ores to extract both nickel and cobalt. However, Indonesian cobalt production capacity growth will likely plateau after 2027 due to rising project costs and slower-than-expected nickel consumption growth.

HPAL Operations Drive Cobalt Output Growth Despite Rising Costs

Indonesia's cobalt capacity expansion relies heavily on HPAL technology, which extracts cobalt as a byproduct of nickel processing operations. China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Xu Aidong confirmed that capacity increases will probably stabilize given mounting economic pressures. Meanwhile, rising sulfur prices used in hydrometallurgical production lines are increasing HPAL project costs significantly.

Mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production maintains 30-40% profit margins even with nickel prices around $15,000 per tonne, partly due to cobalt content value. Indonesia exported nearly 1.56 million tonnes of MHP last year, with cobalt exports reaching approximately 44,350 tonnes. Therefore, Indonesian cobalt production remains economically viable despite commodity price volatility.

DRC Export Ban Creates Market Uncertainty and Technology Shifts

The Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt export ban threatens to drive prices higher while potentially reducing long-term cobalt demand through technology adaptation. Seto warned that sustained export restrictions could backfire by accelerating battery chemistry changes to reduce cobalt content. As a result, the industry witnessed massive adoption of nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) 811 technology during 2017-2018 price spikes.

Indonesia processes MHP directly into precursors without crystallizing nickel sulfate first, streamlining production efficiency and reducing costs. The country views cobalt as inseparable from nickel production rather than an independent mineral resource. However, Indonesia recognizes its responsibility as a major producer to ensure reliable global supply chains.

Seto emphasized that Indonesia's position on nickel mirrors the DRC's influence on cobalt markets, requiring careful market management. Major producers must balance supply control with market reliability to avoid being perceived as unreliable suppliers. Consequently, both countries face pressure to maintain sufficient global supply while maximizing domestic value addition.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia's strategic approach to cobalt as a nickel byproduct positions the country advantageously in global battery supply chains while the DRC's export restrictions create market uncertainty. The doubling of Indonesian cobalt production capacity by 2027 could provide crucial supply diversification for battery manufacturers seeking alternatives to DRC sources, though technology shifts toward lower-cobalt chemistries may limit long-term demand growth.

Chinese Cobalt Prices Expected to Decline Further in 2025 Amid Rising Supply and Weak Demand

Chinese Cobalt Manufacturing

Oversupply and Weak Demand to Push Cobalt Prices Lower

The Chinese cobalt market is set to experience further price declines in 2025, as increasing nickel and copper production, from which cobalt is a by-product, leads to an oversupply that buyers are struggling to absorb.

Currently, Chinese-origin cobalt metal traded in Europe has already seen significant pressure due to a lack of floor pricing on raw materials, a trend expected to persist into the new year. Market insiders suggest that cobalt prices could drop below $9/lb, as fully integrated Chinese producers view cobalt as a credit to their primary metal production, particularly nickel and copper.

For these refiners, cobalt is a secondary concern. As one trading firm explained, some Chinese producers operate with production costs as low as $4,000 per ton while selling at $9,000 per ton. Even if they incur a $50 million loss on cobalt, they may still profit significantly from copper production, which can generate up to $700 million in gains.

Chinese Refiners Likely to Continue Production at a Loss

Unlike non-Chinese refiners, which may curtail supply if cobalt prices fall below $9/lb, some Chinese integrated mining firms and refiners could continue refining hydroxide into metal at a loss-making $7-8/lb.

While there is speculation that some Chinese metal producers may attempt to negotiate floor prices in their contracts, it remains uncertain whether these efforts will succeed. Market participants are closely watching how these negotiations unfold, as they could provide some level of price support if successful.

Global Nickel and Copper Growth to Sustain Cobalt Oversupply

The primary factor driving cobalt’s oversupply is the continued expansion of nickel and copper production, as cobalt is a by-product of both metals.

• Nickel production is set to rise again in 2025 with the launch of new Class 1 nickel refineries in China and Indonesia. This will likely keep London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month official nickel prices within the $15,000-17,000 per ton range, significantly lower than the $30,000 per ton peak in early 2023.

• Copper production is also projected to increase due to expansions at mines such as Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Although cobalt sales represent only a minor portion of copper mining revenues, producers still aim to extract value from it as a credit.

Weakened Demand from EV and Chemicals Sectors Further Pressures Prices

While cobalt demand in China has surged by 40%, this has not been enough to counteract weakening demand in other regions, particularly in Europe:

• The electric vehicle (EV) sector in Europe has slowed down, leading to reduced demand for cathode active materials like cobalt.

• The European chemicals industry, particularly in Germany, has struggled due to rising energy costs and broader economic challenges.

Even if prices do increase, China has ample spare refining capacity and could use third-party tolling arrangements to process hydroxide into metal, further maintaining downward price pressure.

Peak Oversupply May Be Near, But Price Recovery Remains Uncertain

Some market participants believe that cobalt hydroxide oversupply may have already peaked. The shift towards lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which do not use cobalt, has significantly impacted the demand for nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery chemistries, leading to lower demand for cobalt sulfate and cobalt hydroxide.

However, despite this potential supply peak, weak demand across key industrial sectors suggests that cobalt prices are unlikely to see a strong recovery in the near term.

Conclusion

In 2025, Chinese cobalt prices are expected to remain under pressure due to rising nickel and copper production, ongoing oversupply, and weak demand from the European EV and chemicals sectors. While some believe that the cobalt market may be nearing peak oversupply, prices are unlikely to experience significant upward momentum unless demand rebounds sharply or supply reductions occur.

Global Cobalt Supply Expected to Rise in 2025, Driven by Increased Production in Indonesia and China

Global cobalt supply is poised for significant growth in 2025, according to Fan Ruize, senior analyst at Antaike, a leading Chinese state-owned information provider. The expansion in production, fueled by rising output in Indonesia and China, is set to meet the increasing demand for cobalt in various high-tech industries, including electric vehicles (EVs), power batteries, and robotics.

Increased Global Cobalt Feedstock and Refined Production

At the 2024 Nickel and Cobalt Industry Annual Conference in Nanchang, China, Fan Ruize projected that global cobalt feedstock production would reach 290,000 tons of metal equivalent in 2025, up from 272,000 tons in 2024. A significant portion of this increase is expected to come from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which will continue to be the world's largest producer, contributing 203,000 tons. Indonesia will also play a crucial role, contributing an additional 32,000 tons of cobalt feedstock.

Refined cobalt production is projected to rise to 240,000 tons of metal equivalent in 2025, marking a 4.8% increase from the previous year. This rise in refined cobalt production is primarily driven by increases in output from China and Indonesia, with China's contribution set to reach 195,000 tons in 2025, up from 179,000 tons in 2024. China's rapid expansion in refined cobalt capacity—anticipated to hit 75,000 tons by 2025—indicates the country's growing role as a key player in the global cobalt market.

Surplus Supply and Price Outlook

With refined cobalt consumption expected to reach 215,000 tons in 2025, up 3.4% from 2024, the cobalt market is likely to experience a continued supply surplus. Fan Ruize forecast that this oversupply will put downward pressure on cobalt metal prices in the near future. While China's refined cobalt consumption will continue to rise—projected to reach 130,000 tons in 2025—the increase in supply from Indonesia and China is expected to result in price fluctuations at lower levels.

Fan also noted that the increasing output of cobalt metal would diminish the price premium for cobalt over cobalt sulfate, further contributing to the price decline. Despite this, the continued demand for cobalt in sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to drive long-term consumption.

Market Drivers: Cobalt in High-Tech Industries

The growing demand for cobalt in the power battery, alloy, and electric vehicle industries is a key driver behind the rise in cobalt consumption. Additionally, the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence, robotics, and unmanned aerial vehicles will further contribute to the demand for this essential metal. As the global economy transitions to more sustainable technologies, cobalt’s role in powering innovation will continue to expand, supporting the metal's long-term market growth.

Conclusion

The cobalt market is set to see substantial changes in the coming years, with a sharp increase in supply expected in 2025, particularly from Indonesia and China. Despite potential price fluctuations caused by oversupply, the long-term demand for cobalt in high-tech applications, including EVs, AI, and power batteries, will ensure that cobalt remains a critical resource for the global economy.

LME Approves Listing of China's Greatpower Co. Cobalt Cathode

Greatpower

The London Metal Exchange (LME) has officially approved the listing of Zhejiang Greatpower Co.'s GREATPOWER brand cobalt cathode. This milestone, announced on December 17, 2023, marks a significant step for the Chinese cobalt industry in gaining global recognition. Greatpower, a major player in cobalt production, operates a state-of-the-art cobalt cathode facility in Shangyu district, Shaoxing city, located in eastern China’s Zhejiang province.

Expansion Plans for Greatpower

Since its launch in 2022, the Greatpower cobalt cathode facility has maintained a production capacity of 2,000 tons per year (t/yr). Looking ahead, the company is set to double its output by 2025, with plans to reach 4,000 t/yr. This expansion will help Greatpower meet the growing global demand for refined cobalt, particularly as cobalt remains essential for energy storage technologies, electric vehicle (EV) batteries, and other high-tech industries.

China’s Growing Cobalt Production Capacity

Greatpower’s refined cobalt output, which includes cobalt sulphate, cobalt chloride, and cobalt cathode, contributes to the nation’s rapidly expanding capacity in cobalt metal production. In 2023, the price premium for cobalt metal over cobalt salts has encouraged domestic refineries to increase their production. According to market forecasts, China’s cobalt metal capacity is expected to more than double, reaching around 65,000 tons in 2024, with further potential for growth to 80,000 tons by 2025.

Key players in China's cobalt industry, including Jinchuan, Huayou, GEM, Hanrui, Tengyuan, and Guangxi Yinyi, are expanding their operations. New entrants such as CNGR and New Era Group Zhejiang Zhongneng are also slated to launch production lines in 2024.

Impact of LME Listings

The LME’s approval of cobalt cathodes from China is expected to slightly ease the oversupply in the domestic market. Other Chinese cathode brands already listed on the LME include those from Jinchuan, Yantai Cash Industrial, GEM (Jiangsu) Cobalt Industry, Quzhou Huayou Cobalt New Material, Ganzhou Tengyuan Cobalt New Material, and Zhejiang Greatpower Cobalt Materials. With increasing global demand for cobalt, these listings offer greater market access for Chinese producers while contributing to a more balanced global cobalt supply.

Glencore Copper Production Rises as DRC Cobalt Quota Reshapes Output Priorities

Glencore

Glencore copper production rose sharply in the first quarter as higher grades at its African copper mines and stronger throughput at Antamina lifted output. The Switzerland-based trading and mining group produced 199,600t of copper, up 19% from a year earlier.

Glencore copper production growth contrasts with a steep fall in cobalt output. Own-sourced cobalt production dropped by 39% to 5,800t, mainly because the Democratic Republic of Congo’s export quota system has changed how producers manage shipments and mine planning.

Glencore copper production is now becoming more important inside its DRC asset base because cobalt export limits have made copper the clearer operating priority. This shift shows how state policy can directly reshape output behaviour in multi-metal mining systems.

The company maintained full-year production guidance for copper, nickel and zinc, despite weaker output in several other metals. Copper guidance remains at 810,000-870,000t for the year.

DRC Quota System Pushes Cobalt Lower

The sharp fall in cobalt output reflects the DRC’s quota system, introduced after the country moved away from its earlier export ban framework. The system capped shipments and set annual limits for 2026-27, with an additional strategic pool.

For Glencore, the practical effect is clear. Its DRC assets are now prioritising copper production because copper can move through the market with fewer quota-related constraints.

This matters for battery and superalloy supply chains. The DRC remains the world’s dominant source of mined cobalt, so export policy can quickly affect availability, pricing and producer behaviour.

Cobalt is not produced in isolation at many Congolese operations. It is often linked to copper mining, which means policy limits on cobalt can influence mine sequencing, processing priorities and inventory decisions.

The first-quarter numbers therefore point to a more managed cobalt market. Supply is not only a function of ore grades and plant capacity. It is increasingly controlled by export approvals, quotas and state strategy.

Copper benefited from stronger grades at African operations and higher throughput at Antamina in Peru. That performance reinforces copper’s stronger strategic position at a time when demand from grids, electrification, industrial policy and data centres continues to attract market attention.

Nickel, Zinc and Ferro-Chrome Show Operational Pressure

Glencore’s nickel output fell by 9% to 17,200t. The decline was caused by a furnace disruption at the Sudbury complex in Canada, which affected matte shipment timing to Norway.

Nickel guidance remained unchanged at 70,000-80,000t. This suggests Glencore sees the first-quarter weakness as manageable rather than a full-year supply reset.

Zinc output fell by 17% to 176,900t. The decline was mainly linked to the closure of the Lady Loretta mine in Australia and lower output from Kazzinc in Kazakhstan.

Zinc guidance also remained unchanged at 700,000-740,000t. However, the first-quarter result shows how mine closures and regional production issues can still weigh on quarterly availability.

Ferro-chrome output collapsed by 95% to 13,000t because of continued care and maintenance at Glencore’s chrome smelting operations and the phased restart of the Lion Smelter in South Africa.

South African ferro-chrome remains under pressure from high energy prices and competition from lower-cost Chinese material. This has forced output cuts at major producers and weakened South Africa’s position in global ferro-alloy supply.

Glencore’s vanadium pentoxide production rose by 5% to 2,300t, offering a small positive signal in another strategic alloy material.

Overall, the quarter shows a company benefiting from copper strength while managing policy and cost pressures across cobalt, nickel, zinc and ferro-chrome. The most important signal is that copper and cobalt are now being shaped by very different forces: copper by grade and throughput, cobalt by DRC export control.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s results show how government policy can be as powerful as geology in multi-metal supply chains. The DRC cobalt quota is not only reducing cobalt output; it is pushing producers to prioritise copper in one of the world’s most strategic mining regions.

Sherritt Nickel and Cobalt Production Declines in Q1 2025

Sherritt International

Sherritt nickel and cobalt production dropped significantly in the first quarter of 2025. The Canadian miner reported an 18% decline in nickel output to 2,947 tonnes and a 6% decrease in cobalt production to 323 tonnes. Despite these setbacks, the company maintained its raised full-year guidance, signaling confidence in its operational outlook. The Sherritt nickel and cobalt production update reflects both current challenges and anticipated recovery.

Moa Expansion Faces Sanctions but Offers Hope

Operations at Sherritt’s Moa joint venture in Cuba were affected by intensified U.S. sanctions, limiting output capacity. However, the company initiated Phase 2 of its expansion project at the site. Full ramp-up is expected in the second half of the year, which could restore Sherritt nickel and cobalt production to targeted levels. CEO Leon Binedell emphasized that this expansion is critical to meeting future demand, especially in energy transition sectors.

Cobalt Sales Rise Despite Falling Prices

While production declined, cobalt sales rose 26% to 456 tonnes, outpacing actual output. This suggests strong downstream demand, particularly from battery manufacturers. In contrast, nickel sales fell 15% to 3,439 tonnes. Price trends diverged: cobalt’s average realized price fell 8% to C$13.29/lb, while nickel edged up 1% to C$9.98/lb. Sherritt expects cobalt prices to rebound in the second quarter, potentially improving margins.

The company posted a C$40.6 million loss, nearly flat from a year earlier. However, revenue rose 33% to C$38.4 million, supported by strategic inventory sales and resilient market demand. This financial performance demonstrates that even amid operational pressure, Sherritt’s market positioning remains strong.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sherritt’s first-quarter results highlight the fragility of critical mineral supply chains under geopolitical stress. Yet its decisive investment in Moa and steady demand for cobalt offer a realistic path to recovery in 2025.

CMOC's Cobalt and Copper Output Soars in 2024, Boosting China's Supply

CMOC's

Chinese mining giant CMOC has reported a significant surge in its copper and cobalt production for 2024, primarily fueled by increased output from its operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).  This production boost has subsequently impacted China's imports of these critical metals.

DRC Operations Drive Record Production

CMOC's cobalt production more than doubled in 2024, reaching 114,165 tonnes (metal equivalent), compared to 55,526 tonnes in 2023. This dramatic increase is attributed to higher output from the company's Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine (TFM) and the newly developed Kisanfu copper-cobalt mine (KFM) in the DRC. KFM commenced production in the first half of 2023.  CMOC acquired a 56% stake in TFM from Freeport-McMoRan in 2016, increasing its ownership to 80% in 2017. The acquisition of KFM was completed in December 2020.  KFM is jointly owned by CMOC (71.25%), Brunp, a subsidiary of Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), (23.75%), and DRC's state-owned Gecamines.

The company also saw a substantial rise in copper production, reaching 650,161 tonnes in 2024, a 55% increase year-on-year and 14% above its annual production guidance. This growth is partly due to the three new production lines at its mixed ore project at TFM reaching full capacity in the first half of 2024.  TFM now boasts five production lines with a combined capacity of 450,000 tonnes per year.  The KFM mine has achieved a copper capacity of 150,000 tonnes per year.

Impact on China's Metal Imports

The increased cobalt output from CMOC's DRC operations has significantly impacted China's feedstock imports.  Customs data reveals that China imported 172,580 tonnes of cobalt metal equivalent of intermediate products between January and November, a 74% surge compared to the same period the previous year.  Notably, approximately 98.7% of these imports originated from the DRC, a region where the world's two largest cobalt feedstock producers, CMOC and Glencore, operate copper and cobalt mines.  CMOC also holds a 30% stake in Huayue Nickel Cobalt, a joint venture with Huayou Cobalt and Tsingshan in Indonesia.

Looking ahead, CMOC is pursuing further production expansions as part of its five-year plan starting in 2025. These plans include the West Area project at TFM and the second phase of KFM, both of which are currently in the preliminary exploration stage.

CMOC Copper Output Rises as DRC Mines Strengthen China Supply

CMOC

CMOC copper output increased in the first quarter of 2026 as higher production from the company’s Democratic Republic of Congo copper-cobalt mines lifted supply. The Chinese diversified metals producer produced 187,880t of copper in January-March, up 10% from a year earlier.

CMOC copper output was supported by stronger production at the Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu mines. These assets are central to China’s copper and cobalt feedstock security because they supply large volumes of cathode and intermediate material from one of the world’s most important copper-cobalt districts.

CMOC copper output is expected to remain a major market focus this year. The company is targeting 760,000-820,000t of copper production in 2026, after producing 741,100t in 2025.

The result reinforces the DRC’s role as China’s largest imported copper cathode source. China imported 275,359t of copper cathode from the DRC in the first quarter, equal to 37.5% of total imports.

Tenke and Kisanfu Anchor CMOC’s Copper Growth

CMOC’s first-quarter copper growth reflects the scale and strategic importance of its DRC operations. Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu remain core assets for the company’s copper-cobalt portfolio.

The company plans to expand output at Kisanfu by adding 100,000 t/yr of copper cathode capacity. Completion is targeted for 2027.

The expansion could also lift cobalt capacity. CMOC has not disclosed the planned increase, but market participants expect Kisanfu’s cobalt capacity to rise by more than 30,000 t/yr.

This matters because copper and cobalt are increasingly linked in DRC project economics. Higher copper output can bring additional cobalt units into the market, depending on ore composition, processing rates and export rules.

The London Metal Exchange approval of CMOC’s TFM-1 copper cathode brand adds another layer of market significance. The brand, produced at Tenke Fungurume, was approved for listing on 27 March and has a registered production capacity of 270,000 t/yr.

Exchange approval improves brand visibility and market acceptance. It can also support trade liquidity, financing and customer confidence for DRC-origin copper cathode.
China’s copper cathode import structure shows why this is important. The DRC already supplies more than one-third of China’s imported cathode, making Congolese supply critical to Chinese refined copper availability.

The China grade-A copper cathode premium was steady at $55-70/t cif Shanghai on 23 April. The range narrowed from $55-75/t a week earlier, showing a relatively stable but cautious spot market.

Cobalt Output Stays Flat as Quotas Restrict Feedstock Flows

CMOC’s cobalt production was largely unchanged in the first quarter. The company produced 30,508t of cobalt, up only 0.3% from a year earlier.

The company set its 2026 cobalt output guidance at 100,000-120,000t. That is broadly stable against 117,549t produced in 2025.

The flat cobalt outlook reflects a more complicated market. The DRC suspended cobalt feedstock exports from 22 February to 15 October 2025 before moving to a quota-based export system for the fourth quarter of 2025 and for 2026-27.

Administrative delays have slowed the quota system. The DRC extended fourth-quarter 2025 quotas to 31 March 2026 because of slow processing.

The effect on Chinese imports has been severe. China imported only 1,278t cobalt metal equivalent of cobalt intermediate feedstock in January-February, down 96% from a year earlier.

Cobalt hydroxide prices remained stable at $25.95-26.10/lb cif China on 23 April. But the stability masks a market still shaped by restricted DRC export flows, delayed allocations and uncertainty over quota administration.

For CMOC, the copper side of the portfolio is showing clear growth. The cobalt side remains more exposed to policy risk, export controls and administrative timing in the DRC.

The Kisanfu expansion could increase future cobalt availability, but the market impact will depend on whether DRC export rules allow material to move smoothly to downstream refiners.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CMOC’s first-quarter results show that DRC copper remains essential to China’s refined copper supply, while cobalt is increasingly constrained by policy rather than production alone. The strategic issue is no longer just mine output, but whether export quotas, brand approvals and logistics can keep critical metal flows moving.

Electra Cobalt Offtake Extension Secures LG Energy Solution’s Battery Supply

Electra

Electra cobalt offtake terms have been extended by LG Energy Solution, giving the South Korean battery maker longer access to battery-grade cobalt sulfate from Canada. The updated agreement shows how battery manufacturers continue to secure regional critical mineral supply even as cobalt demand faces changing battery chemistry trends.

Under the revised deal, LG Energy Solution will take 60% of Electra Battery Materials’ cobalt sulfate production through 2029. The agreement also includes an option to extend the offtake terms to 2032. LGES first agreed in 2022 to buy battery-grade cobalt sulfate from Electra for three years.

The Electra cobalt offtake update is strategically important because it supports a North American refining route for battery materials. Electra is developing a cobalt sulfate refinery in Ontario, Canada, with commercial production expected in the fourth quarter of 2027.

Ontario Refinery Becomes Key to Regional Cobalt Processing

Electra’s Ontario cobalt refinery has faced delays, but the project is now moving forward again. Financial constraints and supply chain disruptions paused construction in 2023, before Electra restarted work in November after approving a $73 million construction budget.

The company expects early commissioning to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026. Commercial production is planned for the fourth quarter of 2027. Once operating, the refinery is expected to initially produce 5,120 tonnes per year of contained cobalt.

Electra’s nameplate capacity could reach up to 6,500 tonnes per year of contained cobalt. This scale would not transform global cobalt supply alone, but it could provide an important regional source of battery-grade cobalt sulfate for North American and allied battery supply chains.

LGES Strengthens Critical Mineral Security Through Long-Term Supply

LG Energy Solution’s extended agreement shows that battery makers still value secure cobalt supply despite growth in lower-cobalt and cobalt-free chemistries. High-nickel battery systems and certain performance-focused applications continue to require reliable cobalt inputs.

The Electra cobalt offtake deal also supports supply chain diversification away from highly concentrated refining regions. For LGES, Canadian cobalt sulfate could help reduce procurement risk and support compliance with regional sourcing expectations in North America.

For Electra, the updated agreement strengthens commercial visibility before the refinery reaches production. Long-term offtake support can help improve project bankability, especially for critical mineral processing assets that require high capital spending before revenue begins.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Electra-LGES deal shows that cobalt has not disappeared from battery supply strategy. Even as chemistries diversify, battery-grade refining capacity in North America remains strategically valuable for automakers, cell makers, and policy-driven supply chains.

Glencore's Base Metals and Cobalt Output Dips in 2024

Glencore

Glencore's 2024 production of copper, zinc, and cobalt saw slight declines, while nickel production experienced a more significant drop. Ferro-chrome output remained relatively stable.

Copper, Zinc, and Cobalt Production Declines

Glencore's copper output fell 6pc to 951,600t, hitting the lower end of its guidance. This decline resulted from planned lower production at Antapaccay and Collahuasi, alongside unplanned downtime and reduced grades at KCC. Zinc production decreased 1pc to 905,000t, primarily due to lower Antamina output. This was partially offset by increased production at Zhairem. Cobalt production dropped 8pc to 38,200t, attributed to expected lower grades at Mutanda.

Nickel Production Significantly Reduced

Nickel production saw a 16pc decrease to 82,300t. This was largely due to the Konaimbo operation transitioning to care and maintenance. Higher production at Murrin Murrin partially mitigated the impact. Ferro-chrome production remained nearly unchanged, with a slight increase to 1.2mn t. Glencore will provide its 2025 production guidance on February 19th.

Glencore Q1 Cobalt and Copper Production Shows Divergent Trends in Volatile Market

Cobalt

Cobalt Output Soars While Copper and Nickel Face Steep Declines

Glencore Q1 cobalt and copper production revealed mixed results, highlighting the challenges of commodity volatility and mine-specific dynamics. The company’s cobalt output surged 44% year-on-year to 9,500 tonnes, driven by improved grades at its Mutanda mine in the DRC. In contrast, copper production dropped 30% to 167,900 tonnes due to lower grades and recovery rates at Chilean operations like Collahuasi and Antapaccay.

Zinc Rises, Nickel and Ferro-Chrome Falter

Meanwhile, nickel production fell 21% to 18,800 tonnes, largely due to the Koniambo mine transition in New Caledonia. On the positive side, zinc production rose 4% to 213,600 tonnes, supported by strong output from Antamina in Peru and Australian operations. Ferro-chrome production declined 7%, with Glencore citing market-driven management decisions and high energy costs in South Africa.

Cobalt Supply Tightness and Copper Recovery Outlook

The Q1 performance positions Glencore to benefit from tight cobalt supply, especially following the DRC’s export suspension that lifted China’s cobalt hydroxide prices. However, copper’s poor start may weigh on H1 earnings, though CEO Gary Nagle anticipates a rebound in output later in the year. Glencore maintained full-year guidance for all core metals, signaling confidence in operational recovery despite short-term setbacks.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The latest Glencore Q1 cobalt and copper production figures reflect a market caught between supply shocks and operational setbacks. While cobalt shows strength amid geopolitical friction, copper’s rebound will be crucial for sustaining Glencore’s broader portfolio performance in 2024.

Glencore's 3Q Metals Output: Copper, Zinc, and Cobalt Decline, Ferro-Chrome Surges

Glencore

Global mining giant Glencore reported a mixed performance in its base metals production for the third quarter of 2024. While the company saw a decline in the output of several key metals, its ferro-chrome production experienced a sharp rise.

Base Metals Production Declines

• Copper: Glencore produced 242,600 tonnes of refined copper in Q3 2024, marking a 2% decline compared to the same quarter last year. This brings the total for January-September 2024 to 705,200 tonnes, down 4% year-on-year, though the decrease was somewhat mitigated by the sale of the Cobar mine in Australia in June 2023.

• Cobalt: Cobalt production also saw a 2% decline in Q3, totaling 10,600 tonnes. For January-September 2024, the total cobalt output fell by 18% to 26,500 tonnes, primarily due to reduced run rates at the Mutanda mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which adjusted operations in response to the challenging cobalt pricing environment.

• Zinc: Zinc output decreased by 5% to 226,400 tonnes in Q3, and by 4% for the January-September period. Contributing to the decline was lower output from the Antamina mine in Peru, caused by mining sequences with lower zinc grades and higher copper grades, as well as operational disruptions due to a tropical cyclone at the McArthur River operation in Australia.

• Nickel: Glencore's nickel production also saw a significant decrease of 18% to 18,100 tonnes in Q3. This was primarily driven by the transition of the Koniambo operation in New Caledonia into care and maintenance starting in February 2024. Despite a slight increase in output from the Murrin Murrin mine in Australia, total nickel production for January-September 2024 fell 9% year-on-year to 62,300 tonnes.

Ferro-Chrome Production Surge

In a positive development, Glencore's ferro-chrome production surged by 89% in Q3 2024, reaching 295,000 tonnes. This helped bring the total for January-September to 894,000 tonnes, up 2% compared to the same period in 2023. This increase is especially notable after a 16% decline in ferro-chrome production during the first half of 2024, attributed to the continued idling of the Rustenburg smelter. Glencore did not specify whether the surge in Q3 ferro-chrome production was due to the restart of the Rustenburg smelter, but the company indicated that higher production rates and fewer offline days at its other smelter complexes in South Africa may have contributed to the positive results.

Chinese Nickel Producer Lygend Begins Cobalt Production in Indonesia

In a significant milestone, Chinese nickel producer Ningbo Lygend commenced cobalt metal production on Indonesia's Obi Island in early July. This marks the first instance of a Chinese refinery producing cobalt metal overseas. The initial phase of Lygend's project has a production capacity of 4,000 tons per year, potentially expanding to 6,000 tons annually.

"Whether and when the second phase (2,000 tons per year) will begin construction depends on market conditions," a source informed Metalnomist. The produced cobalt will be distributed to China and other international markets.

Additionally, Lygend's Indonesian subsidiary launched the third production line at its ONC nickel high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) project on July 1. The HPAL project aims to produce mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), with a portion processed into cobalt sulfate, cobalt metal, and nickel sulfate.

Lygend's cobalt production in 2023 was approximately 7,000 tons metal equivalent, and it is expected to increase to around 10,000 tons this year.

EVelution Mitsui Cobalt Offtake Agreement Anchors Arizona Processing Project

EVolution, Mitsui

EVelution Mitsui cobalt offtake agreement gives the nascent US cobalt processor a major commercial anchor for its planned Arizona facility. EVelution Energy has signed a binding deal to supply Japanese trading firm Mitsui with the substantial majority of future cobalt metal output from the project.

The EVelution Mitsui cobalt offtake agreement covers up to 3,000 t/yr of cobalt over five years. The contract is valued at about $850mn based on current market prices, according to the company.

The EVelution Mitsui cobalt offtake agreement is strategically important because the US is trying to build more domestic processing capacity for battery and defence-related materials. Cobalt remains essential for electric vehicle batteries, superalloys, industrial chemicals and high-performance manufacturing.

The planned facility in Yuma County, Arizona, is expected to begin construction in early 2027. EVelution aims to complete the cobalt processing plant in 2029.

Binding Offtake Improves Project Bankability

The Mitsui agreement gives EVelution a clearer demand base before construction begins. For a new cobalt processor, a binding offtake agreement can improve financing prospects by showing that future output already has a committed buyer.

This matters because processing projects require large upfront capital, technical qualification and long commissioning timelines. Buyers also need confidence that the producer can deliver metal consistently to specification.

Mitsui’s role adds strategic weight. Japanese trading houses often connect raw materials, processing assets and downstream manufacturers through long-term supply agreements.

The deal also strengthens Japan’s access to non-China cobalt metal. Japan has major battery, electronics, automotive and industrial materials sectors, and secure cobalt supply remains important for several high-value manufacturing chains.

For EVelution, the agreement supports a route into the market before commercial production starts. It also helps position the Arizona facility as part of a wider allied supply-chain network rather than only a domestic US project.

US Cobalt Processing Remains a Strategic Gap

The Arizona project addresses a key weakness in the US critical minerals chain. The country needs more domestic and allied refining capacity for materials that support batteries, aerospace, defence, chemicals and advanced manufacturing.

Cobalt supply is globally concentrated, with mining and processing exposed to geopolitical, environmental and trade risks. Building US processing capacity can reduce dependence on external refining routes and improve supply security for manufacturers.

The facility’s planned output of up to 3,000 t/yr under the Mitsui agreement would not transform the global cobalt market alone. However, it could provide an important domestic source of cobalt metal for customers seeking traceable and secure supply.

Cobalt’s end-use profile also makes the project strategically relevant. Battery demand remains important, but superalloys and industrial chemicals give cobalt a broader role across aerospace, energy, defence and manufacturing.

The key challenge will be execution. EVelution must move from offtake signing to financing, permitting, construction, commissioning and qualification. Each step will determine whether the project can become a reliable part of the US cobalt supply chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Mitsui deal shows that critical minerals projects increasingly need customer commitments before they can become bankable. For US cobalt, the strategic question is no longer only resource access, but whether domestic processing projects can reach commercial scale on time.

Uganda Revives Kilembe Copper and Cobalt Mine with Local Partnership

Sarrai Group

Kilembe redevelopment to support copper cathode and cobalt metal output amid evolving global supply outlook.

Uganda is taking a strategic step to revive domestic copper and cobalt production by redeveloping the long-dormant Kilembe Mines. The government signed a production-sharing agreement with Sarrai Group and Nile Fibreboard, two regional manufacturers, to bring the historic site back into operation.

The project will focus on producing copper cathodes and cobalt metal, according to energy and mineral development minister Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu. Located in western Uganda, the Kilembe deposit holds over 4 million tonnes of copper, alongside undefined cobalt reserves. The mine benefits from a rail link to a copper smelter in Jinja, situated in eastern Uganda.

Kilembe's History and New Strategic Role

First opened in 1950, Kilembe Mines ceased production in 1982 due to obsolete equipment and high inflation. Now, with improved regional infrastructure and global demand for battery metals, Uganda is poised to become a competitive supplier of refined copper and cobalt.

The redevelopment aligns with a broader trend of African nations seeking resource independence and value-added production. By partnering with domestic firms, Uganda aims to capture more downstream value and reduce dependence on raw material exports.

Global Copper Outlook Adds Context to Uganda’s Move

The International Copper Study Group forecasts a refined copper surplus of 194,000 tonnes in 2025, down from 301,000 tonnes in 2024. Increased output from China and the Democratic Republic of Congo drove last year’s surplus. Uganda’s entry into refined metal markets will slightly increase African contribution to the global copper and cobalt trade.

However, long-term demand for energy transition metals, particularly from the EV battery and renewable energy sectors, is expected to support prices. Kilembe’s restart could position Uganda as a strategic player in the clean energy supply chain, especially for cobalt, which remains crucial for lithium-ion batteries.

Lobito Corridor Copper and Cobalt Shipment Signals a New Export Route for the DRC

Entreprise Generale du Cobalt

The Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment marks a strategic milestone for the Democratic Republic of Congo. Entreprise Generale du Cobalt and Trafigura agreed the first delivery of copper and cobalt to international markets using the Lobito Atlantic Railway. Initial cargoes will go to customers in the United States. As a result, the Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment strengthens the US-DRC minerals partnership. 

This matters because the shipment is tied to traceable artisanal cobalt. EGC reported production of its first 1,000t of traceable artisanal cobalt in November. Trafigura already markets cobalt supplied by EGC under an existing agreement. Therefore, the Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment is not only a logistics story. It is also a supply-chain transparency story. 

The route itself is strategically important. The Lobito Atlantic Railway offers the shortest path from Kolwezi to an Atlantic port. Inland transit times can fall to about seven days. Consequently, DRC critical minerals exports could become faster and more visible to international buyers. 

Traceable Artisanal Cobalt Gives the Corridor More Strategic Value

Traceable artisanal cobalt gives this shipment a different significance from a normal export cargo. EGC is mandated by the Congolese state to buy cobalt from artisanal producers. That gives the company a central role in formalising part of the country’s cobalt trade. As a result, the Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment connects logistics reform with artisanal sector reform. 

Trafigura’s role also matters. The trader signed a five-year supply agreement with EGC in 2020. That deal included funding for controlled artisanal mining zones, ore buying stations, and traceability systems aligned with OECD standards. Therefore, this first shipment reflects years of work on controlled sourcing rather than a one-off transaction. 

The wider objective is clear. The partnership aims to formalise artisanal mining, improve transparency, and eliminate child labour. Those goals matter to western buyers seeking more credible cobalt supply. Meanwhile, the new route may make traceable material more commercially attractive by improving export efficiency. 

DRC Critical Minerals Exports Gain a Faster Atlantic Route

DRC critical minerals exports have long faced costly and slow logistics. The Lobito corridor changes that equation by linking the Copperbelt more directly to the Atlantic. The railway runs from Lobito in Angola to the DRC border, with an extension into the Copperbelt. As a result, the Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment may become a model for wider export diversification. 

The infrastructure backing is also important. The Lar consortium recently secured $753mn in debt financing to support rehabilitation and expansion. That level of support shows that the route is being treated as a strategic trade corridor, not just a regional rail asset. Therefore, DRC critical minerals exports could gain a more durable logistics platform. 

This development also aligns with broader western policy. Initial cargoes are heading to US customers under the US-DRC strategic partnership on critical minerals. That makes the corridor part of a bigger effort to diversify metal flows away from more concentrated supply routes. Consequently, the Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment carries geopolitical meaning as well as commercial value. 

The Metalnomist Commentary

This shipment matters because it brings together three themes at once: traceability, logistics, and geopolitics. The DRC is not only trying to export more cobalt and copper. It is trying to export them through routes and systems that western buyers can trust. If Lobito keeps scaling, it could become one of the most important critical minerals corridors outside the traditional China-linked trade flow. 

CNGR Begins Cobalt Metal Deliveries in China

CNGR, a leading Chinese producer of lithium-ion battery cathode active materials, has initiated cobalt metal deliveries from its new facility in Qinzhou, Guangxi province. This move marks a significant expansion in CNGR's product line, which began in June, and includes a production capacity of 2,000 tonnes per year of cobalt metal with a purity exceeding 99.99%. The facility also has the potential to boost its capacity by 50%.

CNGR’s operational processes involve transforming low-nickel matte into high-nickel matte, followed by the production of nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate, eventually yielding nickel and cobalt metals. This strategic enhancement aligns with the surging domestic production of cobalt metal in China, which reached approximately 12,300 tonnes from January to May, more than double the previous year's output. This surge is attributed to a premium on metal over cobalt salts, even though recent market prices for 99.8% grade cobalt have fallen by nearly 10% due to abundant supplies and lower demand.

In 2023, CNGR’s production of cathode active material precursors saw a 22% increase, totaling 284,192 tonnes. This includes significant outputs of NCM ternary precursors, cobalt tetroxide, and iron phosphate. Additionally, in February, the London Metal Exchange approved the listing of nickel cathode produced by CNGR, marking another milestone for the company.

Sumitomo Ambatovy Nickel-Cobalt Exit Marks Costly Retreat From Madagascar Laterite Project

Sumitomo

Sumitomo Ambatovy nickel-cobalt exit marks a major strategic retreat from one of the world’s largest laterite nickel operations. The Japanese trading and mining group will divest its 54.17% stake in Madagascar’s Ambatovy project to Ambatovy Mineral Resources Investment.

The Sumitomo Ambatovy nickel-cobalt exit is unusually costly. The transaction value is negative $418mn, meaning Sumitomo will pay to leave the asset after more than two decades of involvement.

The Sumitomo Ambatovy nickel-cobalt exit reflects years of operational instability, high costs and weak profitability. Sumitomo joined Ambatovy in 2005 and invested around $3bn, but the project generated cumulative losses of about ¥400bn.

The sale is expected to close in the first half of Sumitomo’s financial year ending 31 March 2027. Korea Mine Rehabilitation and Mineral Resources will retain its 45.82% stake.

Operational Instability Undermines a Strategic Nickel Asset

Ambatovy remains strategically important because it produces refined nickel and cobalt. These materials serve stainless steel, battery raw materials, superalloys and industrial supply chains.

However, the project has struggled to operate consistently. Ambatovy combines laterite mining, slurry transport and refining, making it a complex integrated operation with high technical and maintenance demands.

The project was suspended in February before Cyclone Gezani struck eastern Madagascar. It has not yet fully restarted, although market participants expect operations to resume during the current quarter.

Recovery efforts are still continuing. The project has also faced slurry pipeline damage and other processing issues in previous years, which affected output and reliability.

Ambatovy produced about 30,000t of refined nickel in 2025. Cobalt output was estimated at roughly 10% of nickel production.

That production profile gives the asset continuing supply-chain relevance. But strategic metal exposure alone cannot offset weak operating economics if reliability, costs and weather-related risks remain unresolved.

New Ownership Faces Production Reliability Test

AMRI, the buyer, is a UK-based consortium led by mining investment firm Essenwood and South African private equity firm Zungu Investments. The transaction gives the new group control of Sumitomo’s stake in a difficult but potentially valuable nickel-cobalt platform.

For Sumitomo, the divestment removes a long-running drag on earnings. The company expects to record a loss of about ¥70bn in its consolidated April-June results and a non-consolidated loss of about ¥85bn for the full financial year.

Sumitomo said tax effects should limit the net consolidated impact, and the transfer has already been included in its full-year earnings forecast.

For the nickel market, the key issue is not ownership alone. The immediate question is whether the new structure can stabilise output, repair operating weaknesses and restore confidence in Ambatovy’s supply.

Madagascar nickel-cobalt supply remains strategically relevant as buyers look beyond Indonesia-dominated nickel growth. But Ambatovy must prove that it can deliver refined nickel and cobalt reliably before it can regain stronger market importance.

The sale also highlights a broader industry lesson. Large laterite nickel projects can offer scale and battery-metal exposure, but they often carry high capital intensity, technical risk and sensitivity to market cycles.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sumitomo’s exit shows that nickel-cobalt scale is not enough when operating reliability and cost control fail. Ambatovy’s next phase will depend on whether new owners can turn a strategically valuable asset into a commercially stable supplier.

CNGR Raises CAM Precursor Output and Sales in 2024

CNGR

CNGR Boosts Output Across Key Battery Materials

China’s CNGR Advanced Material increased its cathode active material (CAM) precursor production and sales in 2024, reflecting robust battery sector demand. Total CAM precursor output rose by 2.4% year-on-year to 291,019 tonnes, including nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) precursor, cobalt tetroxide, and iron phosphate.

The company’s operating capacity averaged 63%, with cobalt tetroxide production running at 102% capacity due to strong electronics sector demand. Production reached 192,548t NCM precursor, 26,922t cobalt tetroxide, and 71,549t iron phosphate, confirming balanced growth across its portfolio.

Sales Expansion and Global Strategic Shifts

CNGR’s total CAM precursor sales climbed 11% to 302,060 tonnes in 2024, outpacing production growth due to efficient logistics and stable client demand. The firm operates major production hubs in Hunan, Guizhou, and Guangxi, and launched Morocco’s first ternary precursor lines in January 2024.

However, CNGR will exit its Finland project, citing regulatory uncertainty and poor market conditions in Europe. This strategic pivot emphasizes the firm’s renewed focus on Asia and North Africa as growth zones.

Customer Base and Metal Diversification Efforts

CNGR supplies materials to leading battery producers including CATL, LG Chem, Samsung SDI, and Tesla, as well as CAM firms like XTC, Beijing Easpring, and Ningbo Ronbay. It began cobalt metal deliveries in July 2024 from its new 2,000t/yr facility in Guangxi, marking a downstream integration move.

This expansion into refined cobalt suggests a broader vertical integration strategy aimed at reinforcing CNGR’s presence in the global battery value chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CNGR’s 2024 performance shows strong resilience and strategic recalibration. While European uncertainties prompted a project withdrawal, the firm’s pivot toward Morocco and cobalt refining in Guangxi signals regional diversification and resource control. Expect CNGR to deepen its influence in battery metals amid growing EV demand.

Glencore’s Metals Output Declines in 2Q

Switzerland-based mining firm Glencore's base metals production fell on the year in the second quarter, with copper, zinc, and nickel all registering declines. Its copper production was marred by lower grades from some historical stock depletion and unplanned mill downtime at its African assets, with a geotechnical event and subsequent mine stabilisation activities at the Antapaccay site affecting output in South America.

Glencore's copper output fell by 9% on the year to 222,900 tons during April-June, with its Mutanda asset registering a steep 27% drop in copper metal output to 7,100 tons. Copper in concentrates production at Antapaccay shed 42% to 26,500 tons.

The group's January-June copper output fell by 5% year on year to 462,600 tons. But Glencore expects to recoup its losses in the second half of the year and left its annual production guidance for copper unchanged at 950,000-1.01 million tons.

Glencore's second-quarter zinc output fell by 8% on the year to 211,600 tons. Volumes were lower from Antamina given its expected copper/zinc mine sequence this year, but the drop was partially offset by the ramp-up of Zhairem. The group's January-June zinc output fell by 4% on the year to 417,200 tons.

Glencore's nickel output suffered a heavy fall on the transition of its New Caledonia operations into care and maintenance. But the drop was partially offset by recovery at its Sudbury Integrated Nickel Operations in Canada, together with higher production at Murrin Murrin in Australia.

Glencore's nickel output fell by 20% year on year to 20,400 tons in the second quarter, with January-June output registering a 5% fall to 44,200 tons. The drop was the result of its Koniambo operations in New Caledonia ceasing operations, going from an output of 7,700 tons of nickel in ferronickel in the second quarter of 2023 to zero this year.

Glencore's annual production guidance for nickel and zinc was unchanged at 80,000-90,000 tons and 900,000-950,000 tons, respectively.

The group's ferrochrome output fell by 16% on the year to 599,000 tons during January-June owing to the Rustenburg smelter's continued idled status in response to weak market conditions. A restart was pending an improved price and cost environment, the group said.

Glencore's cobalt production also fell by 27% year on year to 15,900 tons in the first half, attributed to lower run rates at Mutanda in response to a weak cobalt pricing environment, together with lower throughput and cobalt grades at the KCC asset.