Australia Critical Mineral Export Earnings Set to Rise on Manganese and Rare Earths

Australia, Critical Mineral

Australia critical mineral export earnings will rise as manganese and rare earths scale up. The Office of the Chief Economist expects stronger output and higher export value. Australia critical mineral export earnings could reach A$5.9bn by FY2026–27. Therefore, project finance and offtake activity should intensify across key supply chains.

Manganese growth drives the next leg of export value

Australian manganese exports will anchor the earnings uplift over the next two years. Manganese production could reach 3.87mn tonnes in FY2026–27. Meanwhile, export earnings from manganese could rise to A$2.7bn by FY2026–27. As a result, steel and battery intermediates will gain a larger non-China supply option.

Higher volume alone will not secure margins. However, miners can improve pricing power with consistent chemistry and logistics reliability. Producers will also compete for shipping slots and port capacity. Therefore, downstream partners will likely seek longer contracts and inventory buffers.

US–Australia financing support reshapes investment timing

Australia rare earths exports should also rise as capacity expands. Rare earth export earnings could reach A$410mn by FY2026–27. Meanwhile, US-backed financing linked to an October critical minerals deal supports new project commitments. As a result, developers can accelerate feasibility work, construction planning, and processing partnerships.

Execution risk remains the key variable. However, metallurgical complexity and separation capacity often slow rare earth ramp-ups. Companies that secure reagents, power, and skilled labor will scale faster. Therefore, integrated processing plans will attract the strongest capital support.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Australia is building a practical path toward higher-value critical minerals exports. However, earnings growth will depend on processing capacity, not just mined tonnes. The winners will pair secure finance with repeatable operating performance.