DRC Cobalt Supply Dynamics Shift as US-China Competition Deepens

DRC Cobalt

DRC cobalt supply dynamics are changing as geopolitical competition reshapes control over the country’s mineral flows. The Democratic Republic of Congo produced around 205,000t of cobalt in 2025. Chinese companies accounted for about 63pc of that output. As a result, DRC cobalt supply dynamics now sit at the center of a wider US-China critical minerals contest.

This shift matters because the DRC remains the world’s most important cobalt feedstock source. For years, most Congolese cobalt moved toward Chinese refiners and battery material producers. That pattern is now facing pressure from export controls, quota systems, and new western-backed supply initiatives. Therefore, DRC cobalt supply dynamics are no longer defined by mining alone.

The policy environment is also changing quickly. The DRC suspended cobalt feedstock exports in 2025 before moving to a quota system for 2026 and 2027. Only 96,600 t/yr of cobalt feedstock will be authorized for export under the new structure. Consequently, DRC cobalt exports are becoming more managed and more strategic.

US-DRC Critical Minerals Partnership Is Challenging China’s Dominance

The US-DRC critical minerals partnership is beginning to challenge China’s dominant position in the sector. The proposed Orion investment in Glencore’s Kamoto and Mutanda mines could give the US-backed group direct board access and more influence over metal flows. That would create a new route for western buyers. As a result, DRC cobalt supply dynamics may become less concentrated around China.

Other moves reinforce that trend. Project Vault, the planned US critical minerals stockpile, shows Washington wants more control over future cobalt supply. The first EGC and Trafigura copper-cobalt cargoes through the Lobito corridor are also heading to US customers. Therefore, the US-DRC critical minerals partnership is now moving from policy language to physical supply.

This does not mean China is losing its position overnight. Around 90pc of DRC cobalt feedstock has typically been shipped to China. Chinese miners and traders still hold enormous influence across the country’s output base. Meanwhile, the new quota system still leaves Chinese firms with a large share of the authorized export volume.

DRC Cobalt Exports Could Tighten Further as Processing Competition Rises

DRC cobalt exports may tighten further because the new quota system limits available material while demand for non-Chinese supply grows. Feedstock availability was already restricted by the earlier export suspension. That tightness now meets new competition from western stockpiling and rerouting efforts. Consequently, DRC cobalt supply dynamics could become more constrained in 2026.

Indonesia adds another layer to the story. Cobalt output growth there may slow if nickel ore quotas are cut, because Indonesian cobalt is a by-product of nickel. Recycled cobalt and mixed hydroxide precipitate supply are also unlikely to fully close the gap. Therefore, global cobalt feedstock availability may stay tighter than many buyers expect.

China is also preparing its response. The removal of export rebates for ternary cathode materials and precursors suggests Beijing may increasingly favor domestic value retention. If feedstock tightens further, China may prioritize its own battery chain over overseas buyers. As a result, DRC cobalt exports are becoming part of a broader competition over who controls refined materials, not just mine output.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The cobalt market is entering a more political phase. The DRC is still the core supplier, but the direction of its exports is becoming more contested. If quotas remain tight and western buyers gain more access, cobalt may become less about volume growth and more about strategic allocation.

Global Cobalt Supply Expected to Rise in 2025, Driven by Increased Production in Indonesia and China

Global cobalt supply is poised for significant growth in 2025, according to Fan Ruize, senior analyst at Antaike, a leading Chinese state-owned information provider. The expansion in production, fueled by rising output in Indonesia and China, is set to meet the increasing demand for cobalt in various high-tech industries, including electric vehicles (EVs), power batteries, and robotics.

Increased Global Cobalt Feedstock and Refined Production

At the 2024 Nickel and Cobalt Industry Annual Conference in Nanchang, China, Fan Ruize projected that global cobalt feedstock production would reach 290,000 tons of metal equivalent in 2025, up from 272,000 tons in 2024. A significant portion of this increase is expected to come from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which will continue to be the world's largest producer, contributing 203,000 tons. Indonesia will also play a crucial role, contributing an additional 32,000 tons of cobalt feedstock.

Refined cobalt production is projected to rise to 240,000 tons of metal equivalent in 2025, marking a 4.8% increase from the previous year. This rise in refined cobalt production is primarily driven by increases in output from China and Indonesia, with China's contribution set to reach 195,000 tons in 2025, up from 179,000 tons in 2024. China's rapid expansion in refined cobalt capacity—anticipated to hit 75,000 tons by 2025—indicates the country's growing role as a key player in the global cobalt market.

Surplus Supply and Price Outlook

With refined cobalt consumption expected to reach 215,000 tons in 2025, up 3.4% from 2024, the cobalt market is likely to experience a continued supply surplus. Fan Ruize forecast that this oversupply will put downward pressure on cobalt metal prices in the near future. While China's refined cobalt consumption will continue to rise—projected to reach 130,000 tons in 2025—the increase in supply from Indonesia and China is expected to result in price fluctuations at lower levels.

Fan also noted that the increasing output of cobalt metal would diminish the price premium for cobalt over cobalt sulfate, further contributing to the price decline. Despite this, the continued demand for cobalt in sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to drive long-term consumption.

Market Drivers: Cobalt in High-Tech Industries

The growing demand for cobalt in the power battery, alloy, and electric vehicle industries is a key driver behind the rise in cobalt consumption. Additionally, the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence, robotics, and unmanned aerial vehicles will further contribute to the demand for this essential metal. As the global economy transitions to more sustainable technologies, cobalt’s role in powering innovation will continue to expand, supporting the metal's long-term market growth.

Conclusion

The cobalt market is set to see substantial changes in the coming years, with a sharp increase in supply expected in 2025, particularly from Indonesia and China. Despite potential price fluctuations caused by oversupply, the long-term demand for cobalt in high-tech applications, including EVs, AI, and power batteries, will ensure that cobalt remains a critical resource for the global economy.

DRC Cobalt Stockpile Plan Adds New Uncertainty to Export Quota System

DRC Cobalt

DRC cobalt stockpile plans could add another layer of uncertainty to a market already adjusting to the country’s export quota system. The Democratic Republic of Congo plans to create a state-controlled strategic reserve for cobalt, coltan and germanium, with cobalt expected to be the main focus because of its scale and strategic role.

The DRC cobalt stockpile will be managed by state-controlled mining company Gecamines and regulator Arecoms. The government said the reserve is intended to stabilise markets and strengthen national control over key minerals.

The DRC cobalt stockpile plan comes as the country tries to raise cobalt hydroxide exports toward a 7,500 t/month quota. That quota was introduced in October after an eight-month export ban, but exports have so far recovered only gradually.

This creates a more complicated operating environment for producers, traders and battery materials buyers. Cobalt units may now face two competing channels: export clearance under the quota system or diversion into state-controlled storage.

Export Quota Ramp-Up Remains Slow and Unclear

The DRC is trying to increase cobalt exports after months of disruption, but the quota system is still moving slowly. Around 7,000t of cobalt-contained material was reportedly cleared for export last month, although it remains unclear whether those volumes have crossed the border.

January exports were much lower. Around 1,000t of cobalt contained in hydroxide was exported during the month, far below the 7,500 t/month quota level.

An estimated 3,000t of cobalt-contained material also remains held inside the country awaiting decisions on allocation. This shows that administrative approval, quota allocation and physical logistics remain key constraints.

The new stockpile could add friction to this system. Producers may need to determine which material should be submitted for export clearance and which material may be directed into reserve storage.

This matters because cobalt hydroxide supply from the DRC is critical for global battery and superalloy supply chains. The country remains the dominant source of cobalt units for refiners, precursor makers, cathode producers and high-performance alloy manufacturers.

Any delay in DRC cobalt exports can affect feedstock availability outside the country. It can also influence cobalt hydroxide payables, refined cobalt prices and procurement strategies for downstream users.

The DRC government’s objective is clear. It wants more control over strategic minerals and greater influence over market flows. But the transition from export ban to quota system and now strategic stockpile introduces uncertainty for commercial counterparties.

For producers, the main issue is predictability. Mine operators and processors need to know how much material can be exported, how quickly clearances will be issued and whether stockpile obligations will reduce available sales volumes.

For traders, the uncertainty affects logistics and financing. Material held inside the country can create delays in shipping, documentation, payment cycles and customer delivery schedules.

For buyers, the risk is supply disruption. Cobalt consumers may need to hold larger inventories or diversify supply where possible, although alternative large-scale sources remain limited.

Stockpile Mechanics Could Decide Market Impact

The DRC government has not yet clarified how the strategic reserve will operate. The decree does not explain how stockpiled cobalt will be purchased, paid for or released back into the market.

This lack of detail is the most important issue for market participants. A strategic reserve can stabilise supply if it is transparent and predictable. It can also disrupt trade if it removes material from the market without clear pricing, payment and release rules.

Producers do not yet know whether cobalt earmarked for the reserve will remain on their balance sheets or be effectively requisitioned by the state. This distinction matters for accounting, working capital and sales planning.

There is also no clear communication on pricing. If material is diverted into the stockpile, producers need to know whether payment will be based on market prices, official formulas or negotiated values.

Payment timing is equally important. Delayed payment for stockpiled cobalt could strain cash flow, especially for producers already managing export restrictions and logistics delays.

The planned reserve also includes coltan and germanium. These materials have strategic value in electronics, defence, semiconductors and critical minerals supply chains. However, cobalt will dominate attention because of its larger volumes and direct link to battery supply.

The policy reflects a wider trend among resource-rich countries. Governments are seeking more control over minerals that have strategic value in energy transition, defence and advanced manufacturing supply chains.

For the DRC, cobalt stockpiling could provide market leverage. It could allow the government to manage supply release, support prices or protect domestic interests during periods of oversupply.

However, too much uncertainty could have the opposite effect. If producers and buyers cannot understand how the reserve works, they may price in additional risk or delay transactions.

The stockpile may also complicate the DRC’s attempt to normalise exports after the ban. Export quotas already require allocation decisions. Adding reserve obligations could slow the recovery unless the government clearly separates stockpile volumes from commercial export flows.

For the global cobalt market, the key question is whether the reserve removes significant material from export availability. If it does, cobalt supply outside the DRC could tighten even while official quota volumes suggest exports should rise.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The DRC cobalt stockpile plan shows that cobalt policy is shifting from export control to active state management. The strategy may increase national leverage, but without clear rules on pricing, ownership and release timing, it risks adding more uncertainty to an already fragile cobalt supply chain.

LME Approves Listing of China's Greatpower Co. Cobalt Cathode

Greatpower

The London Metal Exchange (LME) has officially approved the listing of Zhejiang Greatpower Co.'s GREATPOWER brand cobalt cathode. This milestone, announced on December 17, 2023, marks a significant step for the Chinese cobalt industry in gaining global recognition. Greatpower, a major player in cobalt production, operates a state-of-the-art cobalt cathode facility in Shangyu district, Shaoxing city, located in eastern China’s Zhejiang province.

Expansion Plans for Greatpower

Since its launch in 2022, the Greatpower cobalt cathode facility has maintained a production capacity of 2,000 tons per year (t/yr). Looking ahead, the company is set to double its output by 2025, with plans to reach 4,000 t/yr. This expansion will help Greatpower meet the growing global demand for refined cobalt, particularly as cobalt remains essential for energy storage technologies, electric vehicle (EV) batteries, and other high-tech industries.

China’s Growing Cobalt Production Capacity

Greatpower’s refined cobalt output, which includes cobalt sulphate, cobalt chloride, and cobalt cathode, contributes to the nation’s rapidly expanding capacity in cobalt metal production. In 2023, the price premium for cobalt metal over cobalt salts has encouraged domestic refineries to increase their production. According to market forecasts, China’s cobalt metal capacity is expected to more than double, reaching around 65,000 tons in 2024, with further potential for growth to 80,000 tons by 2025.

Key players in China's cobalt industry, including Jinchuan, Huayou, GEM, Hanrui, Tengyuan, and Guangxi Yinyi, are expanding their operations. New entrants such as CNGR and New Era Group Zhejiang Zhongneng are also slated to launch production lines in 2024.

Impact of LME Listings

The LME’s approval of cobalt cathodes from China is expected to slightly ease the oversupply in the domestic market. Other Chinese cathode brands already listed on the LME include those from Jinchuan, Yantai Cash Industrial, GEM (Jiangsu) Cobalt Industry, Quzhou Huayou Cobalt New Material, Ganzhou Tengyuan Cobalt New Material, and Zhejiang Greatpower Cobalt Materials. With increasing global demand for cobalt, these listings offer greater market access for Chinese producers while contributing to a more balanced global cobalt supply.

Chinese Cobalt Prices Expected to Decline Further in 2025 Amid Rising Supply and Weak Demand

Chinese Cobalt Manufacturing

Oversupply and Weak Demand to Push Cobalt Prices Lower

The Chinese cobalt market is set to experience further price declines in 2025, as increasing nickel and copper production, from which cobalt is a by-product, leads to an oversupply that buyers are struggling to absorb.

Currently, Chinese-origin cobalt metal traded in Europe has already seen significant pressure due to a lack of floor pricing on raw materials, a trend expected to persist into the new year. Market insiders suggest that cobalt prices could drop below $9/lb, as fully integrated Chinese producers view cobalt as a credit to their primary metal production, particularly nickel and copper.

For these refiners, cobalt is a secondary concern. As one trading firm explained, some Chinese producers operate with production costs as low as $4,000 per ton while selling at $9,000 per ton. Even if they incur a $50 million loss on cobalt, they may still profit significantly from copper production, which can generate up to $700 million in gains.

Chinese Refiners Likely to Continue Production at a Loss

Unlike non-Chinese refiners, which may curtail supply if cobalt prices fall below $9/lb, some Chinese integrated mining firms and refiners could continue refining hydroxide into metal at a loss-making $7-8/lb.

While there is speculation that some Chinese metal producers may attempt to negotiate floor prices in their contracts, it remains uncertain whether these efforts will succeed. Market participants are closely watching how these negotiations unfold, as they could provide some level of price support if successful.

Global Nickel and Copper Growth to Sustain Cobalt Oversupply

The primary factor driving cobalt’s oversupply is the continued expansion of nickel and copper production, as cobalt is a by-product of both metals.

• Nickel production is set to rise again in 2025 with the launch of new Class 1 nickel refineries in China and Indonesia. This will likely keep London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month official nickel prices within the $15,000-17,000 per ton range, significantly lower than the $30,000 per ton peak in early 2023.

• Copper production is also projected to increase due to expansions at mines such as Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Although cobalt sales represent only a minor portion of copper mining revenues, producers still aim to extract value from it as a credit.

Weakened Demand from EV and Chemicals Sectors Further Pressures Prices

While cobalt demand in China has surged by 40%, this has not been enough to counteract weakening demand in other regions, particularly in Europe:

• The electric vehicle (EV) sector in Europe has slowed down, leading to reduced demand for cathode active materials like cobalt.

• The European chemicals industry, particularly in Germany, has struggled due to rising energy costs and broader economic challenges.

Even if prices do increase, China has ample spare refining capacity and could use third-party tolling arrangements to process hydroxide into metal, further maintaining downward price pressure.

Peak Oversupply May Be Near, But Price Recovery Remains Uncertain

Some market participants believe that cobalt hydroxide oversupply may have already peaked. The shift towards lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which do not use cobalt, has significantly impacted the demand for nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery chemistries, leading to lower demand for cobalt sulfate and cobalt hydroxide.

However, despite this potential supply peak, weak demand across key industrial sectors suggests that cobalt prices are unlikely to see a strong recovery in the near term.

Conclusion

In 2025, Chinese cobalt prices are expected to remain under pressure due to rising nickel and copper production, ongoing oversupply, and weak demand from the European EV and chemicals sectors. While some believe that the cobalt market may be nearing peak oversupply, prices are unlikely to experience significant upward momentum unless demand rebounds sharply or supply reductions occur.

Electra Cobalt Offtake Extension Secures LG Energy Solution’s Battery Supply

Electra

Electra cobalt offtake terms have been extended by LG Energy Solution, giving the South Korean battery maker longer access to battery-grade cobalt sulfate from Canada. The updated agreement shows how battery manufacturers continue to secure regional critical mineral supply even as cobalt demand faces changing battery chemistry trends.

Under the revised deal, LG Energy Solution will take 60% of Electra Battery Materials’ cobalt sulfate production through 2029. The agreement also includes an option to extend the offtake terms to 2032. LGES first agreed in 2022 to buy battery-grade cobalt sulfate from Electra for three years.

The Electra cobalt offtake update is strategically important because it supports a North American refining route for battery materials. Electra is developing a cobalt sulfate refinery in Ontario, Canada, with commercial production expected in the fourth quarter of 2027.

Ontario Refinery Becomes Key to Regional Cobalt Processing

Electra’s Ontario cobalt refinery has faced delays, but the project is now moving forward again. Financial constraints and supply chain disruptions paused construction in 2023, before Electra restarted work in November after approving a $73 million construction budget.

The company expects early commissioning to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026. Commercial production is planned for the fourth quarter of 2027. Once operating, the refinery is expected to initially produce 5,120 tonnes per year of contained cobalt.

Electra’s nameplate capacity could reach up to 6,500 tonnes per year of contained cobalt. This scale would not transform global cobalt supply alone, but it could provide an important regional source of battery-grade cobalt sulfate for North American and allied battery supply chains.

LGES Strengthens Critical Mineral Security Through Long-Term Supply

LG Energy Solution’s extended agreement shows that battery makers still value secure cobalt supply despite growth in lower-cobalt and cobalt-free chemistries. High-nickel battery systems and certain performance-focused applications continue to require reliable cobalt inputs.

The Electra cobalt offtake deal also supports supply chain diversification away from highly concentrated refining regions. For LGES, Canadian cobalt sulfate could help reduce procurement risk and support compliance with regional sourcing expectations in North America.

For Electra, the updated agreement strengthens commercial visibility before the refinery reaches production. Long-term offtake support can help improve project bankability, especially for critical mineral processing assets that require high capital spending before revenue begins.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Electra-LGES deal shows that cobalt has not disappeared from battery supply strategy. Even as chemistries diversify, battery-grade refining capacity in North America remains strategically valuable for automakers, cell makers, and policy-driven supply chains.

EVelution Mitsui Cobalt Offtake Agreement Anchors Arizona Processing Project

EVolution, Mitsui

EVelution Mitsui cobalt offtake agreement gives the nascent US cobalt processor a major commercial anchor for its planned Arizona facility. EVelution Energy has signed a binding deal to supply Japanese trading firm Mitsui with the substantial majority of future cobalt metal output from the project.

The EVelution Mitsui cobalt offtake agreement covers up to 3,000 t/yr of cobalt over five years. The contract is valued at about $850mn based on current market prices, according to the company.

The EVelution Mitsui cobalt offtake agreement is strategically important because the US is trying to build more domestic processing capacity for battery and defence-related materials. Cobalt remains essential for electric vehicle batteries, superalloys, industrial chemicals and high-performance manufacturing.

The planned facility in Yuma County, Arizona, is expected to begin construction in early 2027. EVelution aims to complete the cobalt processing plant in 2029.

Binding Offtake Improves Project Bankability

The Mitsui agreement gives EVelution a clearer demand base before construction begins. For a new cobalt processor, a binding offtake agreement can improve financing prospects by showing that future output already has a committed buyer.

This matters because processing projects require large upfront capital, technical qualification and long commissioning timelines. Buyers also need confidence that the producer can deliver metal consistently to specification.

Mitsui’s role adds strategic weight. Japanese trading houses often connect raw materials, processing assets and downstream manufacturers through long-term supply agreements.

The deal also strengthens Japan’s access to non-China cobalt metal. Japan has major battery, electronics, automotive and industrial materials sectors, and secure cobalt supply remains important for several high-value manufacturing chains.

For EVelution, the agreement supports a route into the market before commercial production starts. It also helps position the Arizona facility as part of a wider allied supply-chain network rather than only a domestic US project.

US Cobalt Processing Remains a Strategic Gap

The Arizona project addresses a key weakness in the US critical minerals chain. The country needs more domestic and allied refining capacity for materials that support batteries, aerospace, defence, chemicals and advanced manufacturing.

Cobalt supply is globally concentrated, with mining and processing exposed to geopolitical, environmental and trade risks. Building US processing capacity can reduce dependence on external refining routes and improve supply security for manufacturers.

The facility’s planned output of up to 3,000 t/yr under the Mitsui agreement would not transform the global cobalt market alone. However, it could provide an important domestic source of cobalt metal for customers seeking traceable and secure supply.

Cobalt’s end-use profile also makes the project strategically relevant. Battery demand remains important, but superalloys and industrial chemicals give cobalt a broader role across aerospace, energy, defence and manufacturing.

The key challenge will be execution. EVelution must move from offtake signing to financing, permitting, construction, commissioning and qualification. Each step will determine whether the project can become a reliable part of the US cobalt supply chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Mitsui deal shows that critical minerals projects increasingly need customer commitments before they can become bankable. For US cobalt, the strategic question is no longer only resource access, but whether domestic processing projects can reach commercial scale on time.

Indonesian Cobalt Production Capacity Set to Double by 2027

Indonesian Cobalt

Indonesian cobalt production capacity will more than double to 114,000 tonnes by 2027 from 55,000 tonnes in 2024, according to National Economic Council member Septian Hario Seto. The expansion comes from Indonesia's high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) operations, which process nickel laterite ores to extract both nickel and cobalt. However, Indonesian cobalt production capacity growth will likely plateau after 2027 due to rising project costs and slower-than-expected nickel consumption growth.

HPAL Operations Drive Cobalt Output Growth Despite Rising Costs

Indonesia's cobalt capacity expansion relies heavily on HPAL technology, which extracts cobalt as a byproduct of nickel processing operations. China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Xu Aidong confirmed that capacity increases will probably stabilize given mounting economic pressures. Meanwhile, rising sulfur prices used in hydrometallurgical production lines are increasing HPAL project costs significantly.

Mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production maintains 30-40% profit margins even with nickel prices around $15,000 per tonne, partly due to cobalt content value. Indonesia exported nearly 1.56 million tonnes of MHP last year, with cobalt exports reaching approximately 44,350 tonnes. Therefore, Indonesian cobalt production remains economically viable despite commodity price volatility.

DRC Export Ban Creates Market Uncertainty and Technology Shifts

The Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt export ban threatens to drive prices higher while potentially reducing long-term cobalt demand through technology adaptation. Seto warned that sustained export restrictions could backfire by accelerating battery chemistry changes to reduce cobalt content. As a result, the industry witnessed massive adoption of nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) 811 technology during 2017-2018 price spikes.

Indonesia processes MHP directly into precursors without crystallizing nickel sulfate first, streamlining production efficiency and reducing costs. The country views cobalt as inseparable from nickel production rather than an independent mineral resource. However, Indonesia recognizes its responsibility as a major producer to ensure reliable global supply chains.

Seto emphasized that Indonesia's position on nickel mirrors the DRC's influence on cobalt markets, requiring careful market management. Major producers must balance supply control with market reliability to avoid being perceived as unreliable suppliers. Consequently, both countries face pressure to maintain sufficient global supply while maximizing domestic value addition.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia's strategic approach to cobalt as a nickel byproduct positions the country advantageously in global battery supply chains while the DRC's export restrictions create market uncertainty. The doubling of Indonesian cobalt production capacity by 2027 could provide crucial supply diversification for battery manufacturers seeking alternatives to DRC sources, though technology shifts toward lower-cobalt chemistries may limit long-term demand growth.

CMOC Copper Output Rises as DRC Mines Strengthen China Supply

CMOC

CMOC copper output increased in the first quarter of 2026 as higher production from the company’s Democratic Republic of Congo copper-cobalt mines lifted supply. The Chinese diversified metals producer produced 187,880t of copper in January-March, up 10% from a year earlier.

CMOC copper output was supported by stronger production at the Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu mines. These assets are central to China’s copper and cobalt feedstock security because they supply large volumes of cathode and intermediate material from one of the world’s most important copper-cobalt districts.

CMOC copper output is expected to remain a major market focus this year. The company is targeting 760,000-820,000t of copper production in 2026, after producing 741,100t in 2025.

The result reinforces the DRC’s role as China’s largest imported copper cathode source. China imported 275,359t of copper cathode from the DRC in the first quarter, equal to 37.5% of total imports.

Tenke and Kisanfu Anchor CMOC’s Copper Growth

CMOC’s first-quarter copper growth reflects the scale and strategic importance of its DRC operations. Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu remain core assets for the company’s copper-cobalt portfolio.

The company plans to expand output at Kisanfu by adding 100,000 t/yr of copper cathode capacity. Completion is targeted for 2027.

The expansion could also lift cobalt capacity. CMOC has not disclosed the planned increase, but market participants expect Kisanfu’s cobalt capacity to rise by more than 30,000 t/yr.

This matters because copper and cobalt are increasingly linked in DRC project economics. Higher copper output can bring additional cobalt units into the market, depending on ore composition, processing rates and export rules.

The London Metal Exchange approval of CMOC’s TFM-1 copper cathode brand adds another layer of market significance. The brand, produced at Tenke Fungurume, was approved for listing on 27 March and has a registered production capacity of 270,000 t/yr.

Exchange approval improves brand visibility and market acceptance. It can also support trade liquidity, financing and customer confidence for DRC-origin copper cathode.
China’s copper cathode import structure shows why this is important. The DRC already supplies more than one-third of China’s imported cathode, making Congolese supply critical to Chinese refined copper availability.

The China grade-A copper cathode premium was steady at $55-70/t cif Shanghai on 23 April. The range narrowed from $55-75/t a week earlier, showing a relatively stable but cautious spot market.

Cobalt Output Stays Flat as Quotas Restrict Feedstock Flows

CMOC’s cobalt production was largely unchanged in the first quarter. The company produced 30,508t of cobalt, up only 0.3% from a year earlier.

The company set its 2026 cobalt output guidance at 100,000-120,000t. That is broadly stable against 117,549t produced in 2025.

The flat cobalt outlook reflects a more complicated market. The DRC suspended cobalt feedstock exports from 22 February to 15 October 2025 before moving to a quota-based export system for the fourth quarter of 2025 and for 2026-27.

Administrative delays have slowed the quota system. The DRC extended fourth-quarter 2025 quotas to 31 March 2026 because of slow processing.

The effect on Chinese imports has been severe. China imported only 1,278t cobalt metal equivalent of cobalt intermediate feedstock in January-February, down 96% from a year earlier.

Cobalt hydroxide prices remained stable at $25.95-26.10/lb cif China on 23 April. But the stability masks a market still shaped by restricted DRC export flows, delayed allocations and uncertainty over quota administration.

For CMOC, the copper side of the portfolio is showing clear growth. The cobalt side remains more exposed to policy risk, export controls and administrative timing in the DRC.

The Kisanfu expansion could increase future cobalt availability, but the market impact will depend on whether DRC export rules allow material to move smoothly to downstream refiners.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CMOC’s first-quarter results show that DRC copper remains essential to China’s refined copper supply, while cobalt is increasingly constrained by policy rather than production alone. The strategic issue is no longer just mine output, but whether export quotas, brand approvals and logistics can keep critical metal flows moving.

Lobito Corridor Copper and Cobalt Shipment Signals a New Export Route for the DRC

Entreprise Generale du Cobalt

The Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment marks a strategic milestone for the Democratic Republic of Congo. Entreprise Generale du Cobalt and Trafigura agreed the first delivery of copper and cobalt to international markets using the Lobito Atlantic Railway. Initial cargoes will go to customers in the United States. As a result, the Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment strengthens the US-DRC minerals partnership. 

This matters because the shipment is tied to traceable artisanal cobalt. EGC reported production of its first 1,000t of traceable artisanal cobalt in November. Trafigura already markets cobalt supplied by EGC under an existing agreement. Therefore, the Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment is not only a logistics story. It is also a supply-chain transparency story. 

The route itself is strategically important. The Lobito Atlantic Railway offers the shortest path from Kolwezi to an Atlantic port. Inland transit times can fall to about seven days. Consequently, DRC critical minerals exports could become faster and more visible to international buyers. 

Traceable Artisanal Cobalt Gives the Corridor More Strategic Value

Traceable artisanal cobalt gives this shipment a different significance from a normal export cargo. EGC is mandated by the Congolese state to buy cobalt from artisanal producers. That gives the company a central role in formalising part of the country’s cobalt trade. As a result, the Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment connects logistics reform with artisanal sector reform. 

Trafigura’s role also matters. The trader signed a five-year supply agreement with EGC in 2020. That deal included funding for controlled artisanal mining zones, ore buying stations, and traceability systems aligned with OECD standards. Therefore, this first shipment reflects years of work on controlled sourcing rather than a one-off transaction. 

The wider objective is clear. The partnership aims to formalise artisanal mining, improve transparency, and eliminate child labour. Those goals matter to western buyers seeking more credible cobalt supply. Meanwhile, the new route may make traceable material more commercially attractive by improving export efficiency. 

DRC Critical Minerals Exports Gain a Faster Atlantic Route

DRC critical minerals exports have long faced costly and slow logistics. The Lobito corridor changes that equation by linking the Copperbelt more directly to the Atlantic. The railway runs from Lobito in Angola to the DRC border, with an extension into the Copperbelt. As a result, the Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment may become a model for wider export diversification. 

The infrastructure backing is also important. The Lar consortium recently secured $753mn in debt financing to support rehabilitation and expansion. That level of support shows that the route is being treated as a strategic trade corridor, not just a regional rail asset. Therefore, DRC critical minerals exports could gain a more durable logistics platform. 

This development also aligns with broader western policy. Initial cargoes are heading to US customers under the US-DRC strategic partnership on critical minerals. That makes the corridor part of a bigger effort to diversify metal flows away from more concentrated supply routes. Consequently, the Lobito corridor copper and cobalt shipment carries geopolitical meaning as well as commercial value. 

The Metalnomist Commentary

This shipment matters because it brings together three themes at once: traceability, logistics, and geopolitics. The DRC is not only trying to export more cobalt and copper. It is trying to export them through routes and systems that western buyers can trust. If Lobito keeps scaling, it could become one of the most important critical minerals corridors outside the traditional China-linked trade flow. 

Glencore-Backed Cobalt Stockpiling Fund Targets $230mn LSE IPO

Glencore

Cobalt Holdings IPO offers pure-play exposure to physical cobalt

Glencore-backed cobalt stockpiling fund Cobalt Holdings plans to raise $230 million through an initial public offering (IPO) on the London Stock Exchange next month. The UK-based firm will become the first listed vehicle offering investors direct, unleveraged exposure to cobalt prices—separated from the operational risks of mining or refining. The move reflects growing demand for strategic metals investment models that avoid ESG risks tied to extraction.

Long-term cobalt supply secured through Glencore and Anchorage deals

Cobalt Holdings has secured a six-year cobalt supply agreement with Glencore, starting with an initial 6,000-tonne purchase. The deal includes the option to buy $160 million worth of cobalt annually for five additional years, totaling up to $1 billion in metal. The firm also holds an option to acquire another 1,500 tonnes from Anchorage Capital in 2031. The stockpile will be stored in secure facilities across Europe and Asia to support long-term value preservation.

ESG-aligned financial innovation aims to de-risk cobalt investing

The Glencore-backed cobalt stockpiling fund is modeled after Yellow Cake, a uranium stockpile vehicle also backed by Cobalt Holdings CEO Jake Greenberg. Greenberg emphasized that investors can gain cobalt-linked returns without the reputational or regulatory risks associated with sourcing from conflict-affected mining zones. The listing will appeal to institutional investors seeking cobalt exposure aligned with ESG compliance and battery supply chain diversification.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Cobalt Holdings’ IPO signals a shift in how capital markets interact with critical minerals. By offering cobalt exposure decoupled from mining risk, it addresses rising investor concerns around sustainability, compliance, and ethical sourcing—setting a potential blueprint for other metals.

DRC traceable artisanal cobalt formalisation starts with first 1,000 tonnes

DRC, Cobalt mining

DRC traceable artisanal cobalt formalisation has started with the first 1,000 tonnes of traceable artisanal cobalt. Democratic Republic of the Congo is moving to legalise supply that has long operated informally. DRC traceable artisanal cobalt formalisation aims to improve oversight, reduce uncertainty, and tighten market discipline. Therefore, the initiative signals a shift from fragmented trading toward controlled sourcing and compliance-ready material.

DRC traceable artisanal cobalt formalisation also targets stronger price support. Officials expect formalisation to curb oversupply and improve quota enforcement. Meanwhile, buyers increasingly demand ESG assurance and end-to-end traceability for battery metals. As a result, traceable supply can attract a broader pool of compliant refiners and OEMs.

Traceability expands oversight and pulls informal mines into legal channels

Entreprise Generale du Cobalt is scaling beyond the initial 1,000 tonnes. Eric Kalala said the company will expand refining capacity to capture a larger share of artisanal cobalt. Meanwhile, the model aims to bring illegal mines into regulated business through purchasing and control points. Therefore, the programme can raise compliance standards while protecting miners’ incomes.

Traceability also reshapes the operational playbook. The company can standardise buying practices and document custody through the chain. However, success will depend on consistent enforcement and credible auditing. As a result, DRC traceable artisanal cobalt formalisation could become a template for other high-risk minerals.

Quotas, livelihoods, and the Copperbelt raise the stakes

The DRC anchors global cobalt supply and holds about 70% of known cobalt reserves. Artisanal mines employ around two million people and support many more indirectly. Meanwhile, the richest deposits cluster in the Copperbelt, linking cobalt output to regional livelihoods and stability. Therefore, any formalisation effort must balance governance goals with local economic realities.

The government has also introduced export quotas after a months-long export ban. Formalisation can support these controls by improving visibility over volumes and flows. However, artisanal material still represents a meaningful share of global supply, often estimated at 20–30% of annual cobalt volumes. As a result, DRC traceable artisanal cobalt formalisation can influence both near-term pricing and long-term OEM sourcing strategies.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Traceability will not change cobalt fundamentals overnight, but it can reduce risk premiums for compliant buyers. Meanwhile, the real impact will come if the programme enforces quotas and consolidates fragmented supply. Therefore, the market will watch scale-up pace and audit credibility as the key signals.

IXM cobalt force majeure highlights DRC export ban risks

IXM cobalt

Switzerland-based IXM has declared force majeure on its cobalt deliveries from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The announcement follows the DRC government’s decision to extend its cobalt export ban until September. This IXM cobalt force majeure underscores the rising risks in global cobalt supply chains.

Export ban pressures cobalt markets

The DRC cobalt export ban, first enacted in February, was designed to stabilize prices amid oversupply. However, its extension has made it “legally and practically impossible” for IXM suppliers, including Tenke Fungurume Mining and Kisanfu Mining, to ship material. IXM, owned by China Molybdenum (CMOC), said it could no longer meet customer obligations. As a result, no forward deliveries are guaranteed.

Market uncertainty and supply chain risks

The IXM cobalt force majeure does not halt mining production but blocks exports, which could lead to significant stockpiling inside the DRC. Market participants warn that inventories of intermediate products could be exhausted by March if the ban continues. CMOC, the world’s largest cobalt producer, aims to deliver 100,000–120,000t of cobalt this year, but much of it may never reach international buyers.

IXM global head of refined metal Tom Mackay called for “responsibility and certainty” in addressing the ban, reflecting industry frustration over the lack of clarity. The IXM cobalt force majeure highlights the vulnerability of downstream industries — from EV battery makers to aerospace suppliers — to geopolitical and regulatory shocks in the DRC, which controls the bulk of global cobalt output.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The IXM cobalt force majeure represents a structural stress point in critical minerals supply chains. With the DRC holding overwhelming cobalt dominance, the extension of its export ban will likely intensify calls for diversification of supply sources and acceleration of recycling projects in North America, Europe, and Asia.

Glencore Copper Production Rises as DRC Cobalt Quota Reshapes Output Priorities

Glencore

Glencore copper production rose sharply in the first quarter as higher grades at its African copper mines and stronger throughput at Antamina lifted output. The Switzerland-based trading and mining group produced 199,600t of copper, up 19% from a year earlier.

Glencore copper production growth contrasts with a steep fall in cobalt output. Own-sourced cobalt production dropped by 39% to 5,800t, mainly because the Democratic Republic of Congo’s export quota system has changed how producers manage shipments and mine planning.

Glencore copper production is now becoming more important inside its DRC asset base because cobalt export limits have made copper the clearer operating priority. This shift shows how state policy can directly reshape output behaviour in multi-metal mining systems.

The company maintained full-year production guidance for copper, nickel and zinc, despite weaker output in several other metals. Copper guidance remains at 810,000-870,000t for the year.

DRC Quota System Pushes Cobalt Lower

The sharp fall in cobalt output reflects the DRC’s quota system, introduced after the country moved away from its earlier export ban framework. The system capped shipments and set annual limits for 2026-27, with an additional strategic pool.

For Glencore, the practical effect is clear. Its DRC assets are now prioritising copper production because copper can move through the market with fewer quota-related constraints.

This matters for battery and superalloy supply chains. The DRC remains the world’s dominant source of mined cobalt, so export policy can quickly affect availability, pricing and producer behaviour.

Cobalt is not produced in isolation at many Congolese operations. It is often linked to copper mining, which means policy limits on cobalt can influence mine sequencing, processing priorities and inventory decisions.

The first-quarter numbers therefore point to a more managed cobalt market. Supply is not only a function of ore grades and plant capacity. It is increasingly controlled by export approvals, quotas and state strategy.

Copper benefited from stronger grades at African operations and higher throughput at Antamina in Peru. That performance reinforces copper’s stronger strategic position at a time when demand from grids, electrification, industrial policy and data centres continues to attract market attention.

Nickel, Zinc and Ferro-Chrome Show Operational Pressure

Glencore’s nickel output fell by 9% to 17,200t. The decline was caused by a furnace disruption at the Sudbury complex in Canada, which affected matte shipment timing to Norway.

Nickel guidance remained unchanged at 70,000-80,000t. This suggests Glencore sees the first-quarter weakness as manageable rather than a full-year supply reset.

Zinc output fell by 17% to 176,900t. The decline was mainly linked to the closure of the Lady Loretta mine in Australia and lower output from Kazzinc in Kazakhstan.

Zinc guidance also remained unchanged at 700,000-740,000t. However, the first-quarter result shows how mine closures and regional production issues can still weigh on quarterly availability.

Ferro-chrome output collapsed by 95% to 13,000t because of continued care and maintenance at Glencore’s chrome smelting operations and the phased restart of the Lion Smelter in South Africa.

South African ferro-chrome remains under pressure from high energy prices and competition from lower-cost Chinese material. This has forced output cuts at major producers and weakened South Africa’s position in global ferro-alloy supply.

Glencore’s vanadium pentoxide production rose by 5% to 2,300t, offering a small positive signal in another strategic alloy material.

Overall, the quarter shows a company benefiting from copper strength while managing policy and cost pressures across cobalt, nickel, zinc and ferro-chrome. The most important signal is that copper and cobalt are now being shaped by very different forces: copper by grade and throughput, cobalt by DRC export control.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s results show how government policy can be as powerful as geology in multi-metal supply chains. The DRC cobalt quota is not only reducing cobalt output; it is pushing producers to prioritise copper in one of the world’s most strategic mining regions.

Quota System Likely for DRC Cobalt Export Restart Amid Rising Global Prices

DRC cobalt

Market Expects DRC to Shift From Export Ban to Cobalt Quotas

The Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to transition from a cobalt export ban to a quota-based system, as global prices rise and domestic revenues remain frozen. This policy shift is emerging as the most probable path forward, according to market participants attending the Cobalt Institute’s annual conference in Singapore.

The Focus Keyphrase "DRC cobalt export quotas" has become central to ongoing discussions. Since the DRC imposed a blanket cobalt export ban in February, cobalt hydroxide prices have nearly doubled. However, no royalties have flowed into the Congolese treasury, prompting calls for a more dynamic system that maintains pricing leverage while restoring revenue.

Traders suggest the decision is being driven directly by Kinshasa and the presidential office, not just Gecamines. The political goal appears to be the establishment of a long-term supply management system, similar to OPEC’s oil model, to prevent global oversupply and capture more value for the DRC.

Stockpiles Shrinking as Market Braces for Supply Squeeze

Despite record production by CMOC (30,000t) and Glencore (9,500t) in Q1, the export halt has created dislocation. Cobalt hydroxide stocks are building up within the DRC, while inventories outside the country are being depleted. Estimates put global stockpiles at 50,000–70,000t, but availability varies by holder and strategy.

Some traders are withholding shipments to capitalize on rising prices, while others warn of a looming shortage. By August, inventories in China could be critically low, leading to what one source described as a “crunch scenario” if no new material enters the pipeline.

The pressure is already visible in spot markets: Chinese hydroxide material trades at $15–16/lb, western standard at $17–18/lb, and alloy grade cobalt at $19–20/lb, depending on region and grade.

Export Enforcement Signals Shift to Strategic Resource Governance

The DRC’s export ban is being strictly enforced, with military-backed customs units now operating at Kasumbalesa, the country’s primary cobalt export route to Zambia. The sophisticated level of enforcement has convinced many in the market that a structured quota system is the inevitable next step.

Meanwhile, comparisons are being drawn with Indonesia’s nickel quota system, although differences in market structure mean the analogy is not perfect. Still, the strategic intent is clear: the DRC is asserting greater control over its cobalt exports to maximize pricing power and domestic benefit.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The move toward DRC cobalt export quotas reflects a broader trend: resource-rich nations are reclaiming leverage in critical mineral supply chains. As global cobalt demand grows, especially for EV batteries and aerospace alloys, market players must prepare for a more politically managed and price-sensitive landscape. The DRC’s emerging strategy could become a blueprint for other producers.

Lygend Indonesian Nickel Output Drives Sharp Profit Growth in 2025

Lygend Indonesia

Lygend Indonesian nickel output drove a sharp increase in the company’s revenue and profit in 2025. China’s major nickel producer reported revenue of 40.24bn yuan, or about $5.85bn, up 379% from a year earlier.

Net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 61% to 2.85bn yuan. The improvement reflected higher production from Lygend’s Indonesian nickel operations and stronger cobalt prices after export controls in the Democratic Republic of Congo tightened the cobalt market.

Lygend Indonesian nickel output also strengthened the company’s position across both battery and stainless steel raw material chains. Its Indonesian assets produce mixed hydroxide precipitate, nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate and ferronickel, giving the company flexibility across demand cycles.

HPAL and RKEF Projects Lifted Nickel and Cobalt Volumes

Lygend’s Obi Island HPAL project operated at full capacity in 2025. The six-line facility produced 120,000t in nickel metal equivalent and 14,250t in cobalt metal equivalent during the year.

The HPAL project can produce mixed hydroxide precipitate, nickel sulphate or cobalt sulphate depending on market demand. This flexibility matters because battery materials markets can shift quickly between intermediate products and refined sulphate demand.

The company’s HJF phase I project also ran at nameplate capacity, producing 95,000t in nickel metal equivalent through rotary kiln electric furnace technology. Meanwhile, Lygend ramped up output at its KPS phase II project, which has nameplate capacity of 185,000 t/yr in nickel metal equivalent.

Cobalt Prices Helped Offset Rising Input Costs

Lygend benefited from higher cobalt prices because its MHP contains cobalt. The DRC’s cobalt export controls lifted cobalt market sentiment and increased the value of cobalt-bearing intermediates.

Cobalt prices more than doubled during 2025, rising to about $25/lb in December from around $11.5/lb in January. This gave Lygend additional revenue support from MHP sales.

The stronger cobalt contribution helped offset higher costs for sulphur, energy and other consumables. These inputs remain critical for HPAL operations, where sulphuric acid availability and cost can directly affect processing economics.

Lygend also received approval from Indonesia for sulphuric acid import quotas. This allows partial substitution of sulphur with sulphuric acid when needed, improving feedstock flexibility and supply chain resilience.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lygend’s 2025 results show how Indonesia has become the operating center of China-linked nickel growth. The company’s advantage now comes from scale, HPAL flexibility and cobalt exposure, but sulphuric acid supply will remain a key cost variable.

Electra cobalt sulfate refinery restart boosts North American battery supply

Electra Battery Materials

Electra cobalt sulfate refinery restart marks a critical step in building a localized EV battery supply chain in North America. The Electra cobalt sulfate refinery restart in Ontario aims to deliver 6,500 t/yr of battery-grade cobalt from 2027. As a result, the Electra cobalt sulfate refinery restart strengthens regional security of supply and reduces reliance on imported cobalt chemicals.

Government-backed financing underpins refinery construction

Electra secured $82mn in project financing to restart construction after 2023 financial and supply chain setbacks. The funding includes $48mn from the US Department of Defense and the Canadian federal government, highlighting cobalt’s strategic importance. Meanwhile, Invest Ontario added C$17.5mn, reinforcing Ontario’s ambition to become a battery materials hub.

The refinery will produce battery-grade cobalt sulfate, a key precursor for high-nickel and cobalt-bearing cathode chemistries. This production will support EV and energy storage manufacturers seeking IRA-compliant and geopolitically secure feedstock. The project also fits broader efforts to onshore critical minerals refining in North America.

Integrated cobalt feedstock strategy across Canada and the US

Electra is already testing feedstock for the refinery at its Ontario laboratory. The company uses material sourced from historic Cobalt Camp and the Iron Creek copper-cobalt project in Idaho. This integrated approach links upstream mining projects directly with midstream refining capacity.

The firm plans a rapid scale-up in staffing as construction resumes. Headcount will rise from 30 to 150 early next year, supporting engineering, operations and ESG compliance. If execution stays on track, the refinery could become a cornerstone asset in the regional cobalt chemicals ecosystem.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Electra’s move shows how policy support and blended public-private capital can unlock stalled midstream projects in critical minerals. For cathode producers and automakers, an additional Western cobalt sulfate source offers both supply diversification and regulatory advantages. The key watchpoint now is execution risk on capex, commissioning, and reliable feedstock flows from Canada and the US.

China’s CMOC meets cobalt output guidance as DRC export curbs reshape supply

CMOC

China’s CMOC meets cobalt output guidance for 2025 after steady performance at its DRC assets. China’s CMOC meets cobalt output guidance with 117,549 tonnes of cobalt from Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu. China’s CMOC meets cobalt output guidance despite DRC export restrictions that disrupted feedstock flows.

CMOC’s 2025 output rose slightly from 114,165 tonnes in 2024. The company kept its 2026 cobalt guidance at 100,000–120,000 tonnes, matching its 2025 range. Meanwhile, higher copper prices supported earnings because copper remains the main by-product.

Copper strength funds CMOC’s Kisanfu expansion

Copper prices stayed strong through 2025 and hit a new record in early January 2026. The rally reflected tight concentrate supply, rate cuts, and tariff risk expectations. Therefore, CMOC can finance growth while defending margins in a volatile cobalt market.

CMOC is investing $1.08bn in the Kisanfu Phase II project. The project targets an extra 100,000 tonnes per year of copper cathode output, with start-up expected in 2027. However, the company has not disclosed the cobalt capacity uplift, although the market expects a meaningful increase.

DRC export restrictions tighten the feedstock pipeline

DRC policy changes remain the core swing factor for cobalt availability. The government halted cobalt feedstock exports from 22 February to 15 October 2025, then shifted to a quota system for late 2025 and 2026–27. Meanwhile, procedural delays prevented any feedstock exports in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The government has now approved a limited number of hydroxide truck shipments. Those shipments have reached Lubumbashi, a key logistics hub. As a result, market participants expect the first new feedstock to reach China in April, after royalties are paid and cargoes clear onward transport.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CMOC’s results show how copper economics can cushion cobalt volatility inside integrated Cu-Co systems. However, DRC export controls introduce timing risk that can ripple into battery chemical supply chains. Producers that diversify refining routes and secure compliant logistics will gain resilience.

CMOC meets 2025 cobalt guidance as copper strength offsets DRC export curbs and quota delays.

#Cobalt, #Copper, #CMOC, #DRC, #TenkeFungurume, #Kisanfu, #BatteryMaterials, #CriticalMinerals, #SupplyChainRisk, #TheMetalnomist

Chinese Firms Intensify Investments in Cu-Co Mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo

In a strategic maneuver to secure a steady supply of crucial resources, Chinese enterprises are significantly amplifying their investments in the copper-cobalt reserves of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This initiative addresses China's limited cobalt resources and the enduringly strong copper market.

Leading the charge are prominent entities such as diversified metals producer CMOC, China Railways Resources, China Nonferrous Metal Mining, Norin Mining, Excellent Mining, and Huayou Cobalt. According to data compiled by Metalnomist, the DRC produced approximately 167,000 metric tons of cobalt feedstock in 2023, with Chinese mining companies contributing around 59% of this total output. Presently, Chinese investments account for over 62% of the DRC’s total cobalt reserves, a remarkable increase from roughly 25% in 2016. This proportion is anticipated to expand further following Norin Mining's acquisition of Dubai-based Chemaf Resources (CRL).

China’s dependency on imported cobalt, which constitutes nearly 99% of its primary feedstock, has propelled these extensive investments. The DRC remains the foremost supplier of cobalt feedstock to China, accounting for 84% of China's total imports in 2023, trailed by Indonesia (10%), Papua New Guinea (1.6%), and New Caledonia (1.5%).

This domestic resource shortfall has driven Chinese mining firms to intensify their investments in the DRC’s copper and cobalt assets over recent years. CMOC, a global titan in mining cobalt, copper, tungsten, molybdenum, and niobium with operations spanning China, the DRC, Australia, and Brazil, acquired a 56% stake in the Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine (TFM) from US-based Freeport-McMoRan in 2016, later increasing its stake to 80% in 2017. Additionally, CMOC finalized its acquisition of the Kisanfu copper-cobalt mine (KFM) in December 2020.

With copper prices maintaining an upward trajectory since early this year, achieving new heights on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and London Metals Exchange (LME) in mid-May, mining firms have been further incentivized to augment their investments in the DRC’s copper-cobalt mines.

Norin Mining's acquisition of CRL, which controls two copper-cobalt mines in the DRC, underscores this trend. Norin Mining Kingco, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Norin Mining, has entered into a share purchase agreement with CRL’s parent company Chemaf to acquire all of Chemaf's shares in CRL. The financial details of the transaction remain undisclosed, yet CRL anticipates completing the deal in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Nevertheless, the state mining company Gecamines has expressed opposition to the sale of Chemaf Resources, potentially delaying the acquisition process. A source familiar with the matter noted, "The acquisition is expected to be delayed for a while because of Gecamines' opposition, but it will probably be resolved later without significantly impacting the acquisition."

Chemaf SA is progressing with the expansion of the Etoile mine (Etoile phase 2) to process mixed and sulphide ore, alongside developing a new Mutoshi mine. Both projects, in advanced stages of development, have the potential to collectively produce over 75,000 metric tons of copper and 20,000 metric tons of cobalt hydroxide annually. These new ventures are expected to commence production in 2025, post-acquisition.

Sherritt Moa Nickel-Cobalt Pause Raises New Supply Concerns for 2026

Sherritt International

Sherritt Moa nickel-cobalt pause is now the company’s most immediate operational challenge for 2026. Sherritt said it will temporarily suspend mining at its Moa joint venture in Cuba because fuel deliveries cannot be fulfilled. The company also expects to place the processing plant on standby. As a result, Sherritt Moa nickel-cobalt pause is creating new uncertainty around upstream supply and production planning.

This matters because Moa is a key source of nickel and cobalt feed for Sherritt’s wider business. The company said it does not yet know when fuel deliveries to the site will resume. That makes the interruption more serious than a short maintenance event. Therefore, Cuba nickel-cobalt supply is now facing a disruption with no clear restart timeline.

Sherritt is using the downtime to complete maintenance activities at the processing plant. That should help the site use the pause more productively while operations remain constrained. However, the core issue is still fuel access, not plant readiness. Consequently, Sherritt Moa nickel-cobalt pause may last longer than the market would prefer.

Fort Saskatchewan Refinery Buys Some Time

Fort Saskatchewan refinery gives Sherritt some short-term protection against the Cuban disruption. The company said its Alberta refinery should see no immediate impact and will continue producing finished nickel and cobalt. Existing feed inventory is expected to last until mid-April. As a result, downstream production can continue for now.

That inventory buffer is important, but it is limited. If Moa mining and processing do not restart before the feed runs low, pressure could move downstream as well. Therefore, the Fort Saskatchewan refinery is buying time rather than fully solving the problem.

Nickel and Cobalt Output Guidance Now Looks Less Certain

Nickel and cobalt output guidance for 2026 now looks harder to defend. Sherritt had expected to produce 26,000-28,000t of finished nickel and 2,750-2,850t of finished cobalt this year. The company now says it will update guidance once it has greater certainty on a full restart. As a result, Sherritt Moa nickel-cobalt pause is directly affecting market expectations for annual output.

One part of the business remains stable. Sherritt said its power division, Energas, should continue operating without issues. That limits the disruption to the metals side of the portfolio. Meanwhile, investors and buyers will focus on how quickly fuel deliveries can return to Moa.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This disruption shows how vulnerable nickel and cobalt supply chains can remain to non-market factors such as fuel availability. Sherritt still has some downstream breathing room, but that buffer is not large. If Moa stays offline for too long, the company may need to materially reset its 2026 metals outlook.