Brazil Flight Demand Hits New May Record as Domestic and International Traffic Grow

Brazil's flight

Brazil flight demand continued to expand in May, with domestic and international airlines carrying a combined 10.6mn passengers. The result marked Brazil’s fifth monthly passenger record this year and reinforced the strength of one of Latin America’s largest aviation markets.

Brazil flight demand rose across both domestic and international routes. Domestic airlines transported 8.3mn passengers, up 1.9% from May 2025 and the highest May volume in Brazilian aviation history.

Brazil flight demand measured by revenue passenger kilometres also increased by 2.5% year on year, while available seat kilometres rose by 2.8%. The figures show airlines are adding capacity broadly in line with passenger growth.

The trend is relevant beyond airlines. Sustained traffic growth supports aircraft utilisation, fleet expansion, maintenance demand and longer-term consumption of aerospace materials including aluminium, titanium and nickel-based alloys.

Domestic Traffic Supports Fleet and Maintenance Demand

Latam’s Brazilian subsidiary carried 3.3mn domestic passengers in May, up 5.3% from a year earlier. Its domestic market share increased to almost 40% from 38.5% in May 2025.

Gol held 31.5% of the domestic market, up from 30.4%, while Azul’s share declined to 28.7% from 31%. This shift shows that passenger growth is also reshaping competition among Brazil’s leading carriers.

Rising passenger volumes increase aircraft utilisation, which supports demand for maintenance, repair and overhaul services. Higher utilisation also accelerates component replacement cycles across engines, landing gear, structures and cabin systems.

For aerospace materials suppliers, this matters because growing flight activity supports recurring demand beyond new aircraft production. Titanium, aluminium, specialty steels and nickel superalloys are consumed through both original equipment manufacturing and aftermarket maintenance.

Brazil also has strategic significance because of Embraer’s domestic manufacturing base. Strong local aviation demand can support a broader aerospace ecosystem across aircraft production, components, maintenance and engineering services.

International Growth Adds to Brazil’s Aviation Momentum

International passenger traffic reached 2.2mn in May, up 4.8% from a year earlier and the highest volume recorded for the month.

International flight demand rose by 4.4% year on year, while capacity increased by 3.5%. Demand therefore grew faster than supply, suggesting firm utilisation of international routes.

Latam accounted for 21.8% of Brazil’s international flight demand and increased its international traffic by 15.7%. Tap followed with a 9.5% share, while Azul held 4.8%.

The expansion of international traffic strengthens Brazil’s role as a regional aviation hub. It also supports widebody aircraft utilisation, international maintenance networks and airport infrastructure investment.

For metals markets, aviation growth is important because aircraft manufacturing remains one of the highest-value demand sectors for titanium and nickel superalloys. Strong passenger traffic ultimately supports fleet replacement and expansion when airlines maintain confidence in future demand.

Brazil’s repeated passenger records therefore offer a positive signal for the wider aerospace supply chain. The immediate effect is stronger aircraft utilisation, while the longer-term implication is greater pressure for fleet capacity, maintenance and new aircraft deliveries.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brazil’s aviation growth is becoming an industrial signal as well as a transport story. Sustained passenger demand should support aircraft utilisation, MRO activity and longer-term aerospace metals consumption across Latin America.

Brazil ETS Calendar Sets Phased Path for Industrial Emissions Reporting

Brazil

Brazil ETS calendar proposals would bring heavy industry into the country’s emerging emissions trading system through phased reporting from 2027, 2029 and 2031. The finance ministry’s preliminary schedule is designed to give companies more visibility before mandatory emissions limits are applied.

Brazil ETS calendar plans would first cover paper and cellulose, ferrous metals and steel, cement, primary aluminum, oil and gas exploration and production, refining and air transport. These sectors sit at the centre of Brazil’s industrial emissions base.

Brazil ETS calendar development is strategically important for metals producers because steel, aluminum and mining will face rising scrutiny over carbon intensity. The system could gradually reshape investment decisions, energy sourcing and competitiveness.

Brazil’s emissions trading system, known as SBCE, is expected to be regulated by the end of this year. The government plans to launch a public consultation in July.

Steel and Primary Aluminum Enter the First Phase

The first phase places steel and primary aluminum among the earliest industrial sectors to report emissions. This is important because both industries are energy-intensive and increasingly exposed to carbon-related trade and customer requirements.

For steelmakers, emissions reporting will create a clearer baseline for future decarbonization planning. Companies will need to measure process emissions, energy use and operating practices before sector limits are introduced.

Primary aluminum producers will face similar pressure. Aluminum’s carbon footprint depends heavily on power source, smelting efficiency and upstream alumina supply.

The proposed structure gives companies time to prepare. Each phase would last four years, beginning with emissions monitoring before setting total emissions limits for each sector.

Reductions would remain non-mandatory during the initial phases. This lowers immediate compliance pressure, but still pushes companies to build emissions data systems and prepare for future regulation.

Mining and Recycled Aluminum Follow in Second Phase

The second phase would add mining, recycled aluminum, electricity, glass, food and beverages, chemicals, ceramics and waste. This expands the ETS from core heavy emitters into broader industrial supply chains.

Mining’s inclusion matters because Brazil is a major supplier of iron ore, bauxite, manganese, nickel, lithium and other critical minerals. Emissions reporting could become part of how mineral exports are assessed by customers and financiers.

Recycled aluminum entering the second phase also matters. Secondary aluminum usually carries a lower carbon profile than primary metal, but reporting requirements may still shape scrap processing, remelting efficiency and product certification.

Electricity’s inclusion is also critical. Power-sector emissions influence the carbon footprint of metals, chemicals and downstream manufacturing.

The third phase would cover road, waterways and rail transport. That could eventually affect logistics costs and emissions accounting across mineral exports, domestic freight and industrial supply chains.

The finance ministry said the proposal aims to create predictability for a gradual transition to decarbonization. That predictability will be essential if Brazil wants industry to invest before binding limits arrive.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brazil’s ETS proposal is not yet a hard cap on industry, but it is the start of carbon accounting discipline. For metals and mining companies, early preparation could become a competitive advantage once customers and regulators begin pricing emissions more directly.

Viridis Rare Earth Output Marks First Step Toward Brazil Magnet Materials Supply

mixed rare earth carbonate

Viridis rare earth output from its Poços de Caldas demonstration plant marks an important milestone for Brazil’s emerging role in non-China rare earth supply. Australia-based Viridis Mining and Minerals has produced its first batch of high-grade mixed rare earth carbonate in Minas Gerais.

Viridis rare earth output comes from a newly commissioned demonstration plant that processes 100 kg/hr of ionic clay feedstock. The product includes magnet-related rare earths such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium.

Viridis rare earth output is strategically important because mixed rare earth carbonate is an intermediate product that can feed separation, oxide refining and eventually permanent magnet supply chains. The achievement moves the Colossus project from resource potential into early process validation.

The company has sent samples to the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation for qualification. It is still in discussions with potential offtake partners for its mixed rare earth carbonate.

Colossus Ionic Clay Project Gains Processing Momentum

The demonstration plant draws feedstock from the northern concession pits of Viridis’ nearby Colossus ionic clay project. Colossus contains a 200mn t reserve grading 2,640ppm total rare earth oxides.

That resource base gives the project strategic relevance. Ionic clay rare earth deposits can be important because they may contain valuable heavy rare earths used in high-performance magnets.

The presence of dysprosium and terbium matters especially. These heavy rare earths improve magnet performance under heat and stress, making them important for electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, aerospace and defence systems.

Viridis plans to build a commercial-scale plant at Colossus and is targeting first production in 2028. But the company has not yet confirmed a construction timeline.

Financing support is building around the project. Colossus has received A$50mn in loans from Export Finance Australia, along with funding commitments from Brazilian public finance institutions.

The project has also received a $100mn letter of interest from Export Development Canada and support from French export credit agency Bpifrance Assurance Export. This shows that allied governments are willing to support rare earth projects outside China.

Brazil Builds a Broader Rare Earth Processing Platform

Viridis is not only developing Colossus as a mining project. It is also planning rare earth oxide refining and magnet recycling capacity at the same Poços de Caldas location through a joint venture with Ionic Rare Earths.

That integrated approach matters. Rare earth supply chains need more than mining and carbonate production. They require refining, separation, recycling, metal-making, alloying and magnet qualification.

Brazil could become more important if it can connect resource development with processing and downstream material production. The country already has mineral potential, but the value will depend on building customer-ready products.

The Poços de Caldas site could therefore become a rare earth materials hub if the demonstration work, qualification process and future commercial plant progress as planned.

For magnet users, Brazil offers a potential alternative source of rare earth intermediates at a time when China still dominates processing and permanent magnet supply.

The next challenge is commercialisation. Viridis must qualify its product, secure offtake partners, complete project financing and prove that Colossus can scale from demonstration output to reliable industrial supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Viridis’ first rare earth output is small in volume but important in direction. Brazil’s rare earth opportunity will depend on whether projects like Colossus can move beyond resource statements into qualified carbonate, refined oxides and magnet-ready supply.

Chile Copper Production Falls as Mature Mines and Acid Costs Pressure Supply

Chile Copper minnig

Chile copper production fell sharply in the first quarter, deepening concerns over near-term supply from the world’s largest copper-producing country. Output declined by 5.8% year on year to 1.217mn t.

Chile copper production weakness was driven by lower output from mature mines, softer grades and weaker refined cathode production. March was especially weak, with national copper output down 9% from a year earlier.

Chile copper production matters because the global copper market is already facing tight concentrate availability, fragile refined flows and stronger demand from grids, electrification and data centres.

The decline reinforces a core market concern. Higher copper prices are not quickly translating into higher mine output, especially in countries where ageing assets and delayed projects continue to limit supply response.

Concentrate Output Falls as Major Mines Underperform

Chile’s copper concentrate output fell by 6% year on year to around 947,000t in the first quarter. Concentrates accounted for almost 78% of the country’s total mine output.

The weakness was visible across both state-owned and private producers. Escondida remained Chile’s largest copper mine with 311,600t in the quarter, followed by Codelco at 299,600t, including stakes in El Abra and Anglo American Sur.

Codelco’s own divisions produced around 271,600t. The company is targeting 1.344mn t this year after producing about 1.33mn t in 2025.

The first-quarter result keeps pressure on Codelco to stabilise output after several years of structural underperformance. Ageing mines, delayed projects and higher operating costs remain key constraints.

March data showed broad weakness at the largest mines. Codelco output fell by nearly 10% year on year to 110,900t, while Escondida declined by almost 16% to 101,600t.

Collahuasi, jointly owned by Glencore and Anglo American, produced 31,400t in March, down 10.8% from a year earlier. Its first-quarter output totalled 88,200t.

Other major producers also faced pressure. Los Pelambres produced 69,600t, Anglo American Sur 58,200t, Quebrada Blanca 55,500t and Spence 44,600t during the quarter.

Antofagasta produced 143,000t of copper in the quarter. The company cited lower processing rates and weaker grades at Los Pelambres and Centinela concentrates.

Teck’s Quebrada Blanca was one of the more stable performers. The mine produced 55,500t despite planned maintenance and a shorter February, supported by stronger March throughput and recoveries.

SX-EW Cathode Weakness Exposes Chile to Acid and Fuel Costs

Chile’s refined SX-EW cathode output reached 269,300t in the first quarter. January output increased, but February and March both fell from a year earlier.

Refined electrolytic cathode output was weaker at 107,000t. March production fell by 38.7% year on year, pulling total refined cathode output to about 376,300t.

This matters because Chile’s oxide and SX-EW operations are increasingly exposed to sulphuric acid availability and pricing. Acid is a reagent cost for leaching operations.

Smelters can benefit from higher sulphuric acid prices when they sell acid as a by-product. SX-EW producers face the opposite exposure, as higher acid costs directly pressure operating margins.

Higher diesel prices are adding to the problem. Codelco said Middle East-related cost increases lifted its cash cost by at least 10¢/lb.

Antucoya also showed the cost pressure. Output weakened, while costs rose by 23% year on year to $3.03/lb on higher sulphuric acid and diesel prices.

Chile’s investment pipeline remains significant but long-dated. Freeport-McMoRan has started environmental permitting for a $7.5bn expansion of El Abra.

The project aims to lift production to around 300,000 t/yr from 91,400t in 2025. But it requires a new concentrator and desalination plant and is not expected to start until the next decade.

That timing is critical for the market. Chile has projects, but they will not solve immediate supply tightness.

The first-quarter decline therefore strengthens copper’s structural bull case. Global demand is rising, while Chile’s mature mine base is struggling to deliver stable growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Chile’s copper problem is no longer only grade decline; it is now a combined issue of mine maturity, acid exposure, fuel costs and delayed expansion. The market should treat Chilean supply recovery as a slow process, not a quick response to record copper prices.

Brazil Critical Minerals Investment Plan Gets R50bn Boost From Bndes

Bndes

Brazil critical minerals investment is moving further into the centre of the country’s industrial policy after development bank Bndes announced plans to invest R50bn in projects linked to the sector.

Brazil critical minerals investment will target projects connected to fertilizers, artificial intelligence, flying cars, Embraer and other strategic industries. The bank is reviewing 56 projects, although it has not disclosed the investment timeline.

Brazil critical minerals investment matters because the country wants to use its mineral base to support reindustrialization, not only raw material exports. Bndes president Aloizio Mercadante said Brazil should become a protagonist in critical minerals because of its significant reserves.

Brazil holds around 10% of global critical minerals reserves, according to domestic research and mining institutions. That resource position is drawing rising international interest, especially from the US.

Bndes Funding Links Minerals to Industrial Strategy

Bndes’ R50bn commitment gives Brazil’s critical minerals policy a stronger financing pillar. Capital availability is essential because mining, processing and downstream projects require long development timelines and high upfront investment.

The bank’s focus also shows that Brazil is defining critical minerals broadly. Fertilizers, artificial intelligence, advanced mobility, aerospace and Embraer-linked supply chains all require secure access to strategic materials.

This approach connects minerals policy with national manufacturing goals. Brazil wants critical minerals to feed domestic value chains, support higher-value production and strengthen industrial competitiveness.

The announcement follows congressional approval of a bill supporting projects linked to the production of critical and strategic minerals. Together, policy support and development-bank financing could improve the investment environment.

However, execution will decide the impact. Brazil must turn reserves into mined, processed and customer-ready materials before it can capture the full industrial value of critical minerals.

Brazil’s Reserves Attract US and Global Interest

Brazil’s resource base is becoming more strategically important as governments and manufacturers seek alternatives to concentrated supply chains. The energy transition, AI infrastructure, aerospace and defence-linked industries all require reliable mineral inputs.

The US has long sought a critical minerals agreement with Brazil. That interest reflects Washington’s broader effort to diversify supply away from China-dominated processing and strengthen allied raw material access.

For Brazil, foreign interest creates both opportunity and risk. International partnerships can bring capital, technology and customers, but Brazil wants the sector to serve domestic development and reindustrialization.

That balance will shape future deals. Brazil can become a major supplier of critical minerals, but its stronger opportunity lies in processing, refining, recycling and advanced material production.

Bndes’ funding signal gives the country a chance to move in that direction. If aligned with permitting, infrastructure and industrial demand, the R50bn programme could help Brazil capture more value from its mineral base.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brazil is making critical minerals part of its reindustrialization agenda, not just its mining agenda. The strategic test will be whether Bndes funding helps build processing and downstream capacity before foreign buyers lock in raw material flows.

Cajamarquilla Zinc Refinery Fire Raises Peru Supply Risk as Damage Remains Unclear

Nexa, Peru

Cajamarquilla zinc refinery fire has created uncertainty around Peruvian zinc supply after a transformer failure triggered a blaze at Nexa Resources’ refinery near Lima. The company has not yet determined the extent of damage or whether production has been affected.

Cajamarquilla zinc refinery fire was brought under control by Wednesday afternoon after starting at 6:49am local time. Nexa evacuated all employees from the affected area, while one worker and three contractors were injured.

Cajamarquilla zinc refinery fire matters because the site is one of Latin America’s key zinc refining assets. Cajamarquilla produced 345,300t of zinc metal in 2025, making any potential outage relevant to regional refined zinc availability.

The immediate market impact remains uncertain. Nexa is still assessing the damage, and the affected section of the plant has not been clearly identified.

Transformer Failure Puts Refinery Continuity in Focus

The fire began after a transformer at the plant failed, according to Peru’s grid operator. Transformer incidents can affect power supply, electrical systems and operating continuity, depending on the location and severity of the damage.

For a zinc refinery, stable power is critical. Electrolytic refining, casting and associated plant systems depend on reliable electricity and coordinated process control.

Nexa has not yet confirmed whether operations were disrupted. A market source said the company was still assessing the production impact.

The injury of workers and contractors also makes the incident a safety event first. Refinery accidents often trigger internal reviews, regulatory checks and equipment inspections before normal operating confidence can return.

If the fire is limited to electrical infrastructure and repairs are quick, the supply impact may be modest. If the damage affects key refinery systems, downtime could tighten refined zinc availability.

Zinc Market Watches for Output Impact

Cajamarquilla’s 2025 zinc metal output of 345,300t gives the site meaningful market weight. A prolonged disruption could affect customers that rely on Peruvian refined zinc supply.

Zinc metal is widely used in galvanizing steel, die casting, brass, chemicals and industrial manufacturing. Supply interruptions at major refineries can affect premiums, delivery planning and regional procurement decisions.

The incident comes at a time when zinc markets are already sensitive to smelter reliability and concentrate availability. Buyers will watch whether Nexa issues guidance on production losses, repair timelines or shipment delays.

For Peru, the refinery is also strategically important because it converts mined zinc units into higher-value refined metal. Any disruption would affect not only Nexa, but also the country’s downstream metals value chain.

The key issue now is transparency. Market participants need clarity on which units were affected, whether production continues, and how long any repairs may take.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Cajamarquilla incident shows how refined zinc supply can be disrupted by plant-level infrastructure, not only mine output. Until Nexa confirms the damage and production status, buyers will treat Peru’s refined zinc flow with caution.

Novandino Lithium Investment Targets $3.5bn Expansion in Chile’s Atacama

Novandino

Novandino lithium investment plans could reshape Chile’s lithium supply outlook as the producer prepares to spend more than $3.5bn to expand output and extend operations at the Atacama salt lake until 2060.

Novandino lithium investment will focus on the Salar Futuro project, which is designed to take production, sustainability and community engagement to a higher level. The company is close to submitting the project’s environmental impact study.

Novandino lithium investment remains subject to environmental approval. That approval is essential because the company needs authorisation for its Atacama operations in northern Chile’s Antofagasta region to continue beyond 2030.

The company is a joint venture between Chile’s state copper miner Codelco and SQM. Its expansion is strategically important because Chile remains one of the world’s most important lithium producers, but new project approvals have moved slowly.

Salar Futuro Could Extend Atacama Output to 2060

Salar Futuro is central to Novandino’s long-term growth strategy. The project would support continued operations at the Atacama salt lake while lifting production and improving environmental performance.

The company expects to produce 270,000t of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2026. Output is then expected to rise to 300,000t in 2027-2028, compared with 233,000t last year.

That growth would strengthen Chile’s position in global lithium supply at a time when Argentina is expanding rapidly and challenging Chile’s regional leadership.

The environmental impact study will be the key near-term milestone. Without approval, the company cannot secure the long operating extension needed to justify the investment.

Chile’s lithium sector has enormous resource strength, but regulatory complexity has slowed new supply. Novandino’s ability to advance Salar Futuro will therefore be closely watched by battery makers, automakers and lithium chemical buyers.

Technology Mix Targets Higher Efficiency and Lower Water Use

Novandino plans to use a combination of next-generation technologies to improve production efficiency and sustainability. The company is considering membrane filtration, mechanical evaporation and direct lithium extraction.

This technology mix matters because Chile’s lithium expansion is increasingly tied to environmental and community expectations. Brine operations must show better water performance, lower ecological impact and stronger local engagement.

The company said its water intensity per unit of production has fallen by 75% since 2016. That improvement is strategically important in the Atacama, where water use remains one of the most sensitive issues for lithium development.

Direct lithium extraction could also become an important part of Chile’s future production model. However, DLE must be adapted to each brine chemistry, making execution, cost control and scale-up critical.

For Chile, the project is more than a company-level expansion. It is a test of whether the country can grow lithium supply while meeting stricter sustainability standards and maintaining state participation through Codelco.

For the battery supply chain, higher Atacama output would provide more lithium carbonate equivalent from an established producing region. But timing will depend on environmental approval, technology deployment and project execution.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Novandino’s $3.5bn plan shows that Chile still has the resource base to defend its lithium position. The real challenge is whether regulatory approval and new extraction technologies can move fast enough to keep pace with Argentina’s accelerating project pipeline.

Embraer Aircraft Orders Extend Record Streak as Defence and Commercial Demand Strengthen

Embraer

Embraer aircraft orders reached a record level for a sixth consecutive quarter, supported by strong demand from the company’s commercial and defence segments. The Brazilian aircraft manufacturer reported an order backlog of $32.1bn in January-March, up 22% from a year earlier.

Embraer aircraft orders underline the continued recovery in aerospace demand beyond the Airbus-Boeing duopoly. Regional jets, executive aircraft, military platforms and future electric aviation programmes are all supporting the company’s growth profile.

Embraer aircraft orders also carry broader supply-chain implications. Higher aircraft deliveries and planned capacity expansion will increase demand for aluminium structures, titanium components, precision forgings, avionics, composites and high-performance aerospace materials.

The company delivered 44 aircraft in the first quarter, up 47% from a year earlier. Commercial and executive aircraft deliveries reached 39 units, compared with 30 units in the same period of 2025.

Commercial and Defence Growth Push Capacity Expansion

Embraer’s commercial segment was the main driver of the record order position. Demand for efficient regional aircraft remains resilient as airlines seek flexible fleet capacity and lower operating costs.

The defence segment also strengthened the order base. Embraer is now looking to expand production capacity in India and the US to deliver defence aircraft orders to local air forces.

That geographic shift matters. Defence aircraft production is increasingly tied to localisation, industrial participation and strategic partnerships. Producing closer to end customers can improve political acceptance and supply-chain resilience.

The company invested nearly R519mn in operations and research programmes during the quarter, up from R433.7mn a year earlier. This shows that Embraer is preparing for higher production needs while continuing to fund future aircraft technologies.

Revenue reached about R7.6bn in the quarter, a first-quarter record and up 18% from a year earlier. Profit fell by nearly 60% to R174.8mn, showing that investment, cost pressure and programme execution still affect margins despite stronger sales activity.

Eve eVTOL Programme Adds Future Materials Demand

Electric aircraft subsidiary Eve invested R261.1mn in the first quarter, down 11% from a year earlier. The company plans to produce six electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft prototypes for flight certification this year.

The eVTOL programme adds a different industrial dimension to Embraer’s portfolio. Electric aircraft require lightweight structures, high-performance batteries, electric motors, power electronics and advanced certification processes.

For metals and materials suppliers, eVTOL development could create demand for aluminium alloys, titanium fasteners, copper wiring, rare earth magnets and lightweight structural materials. However, commercial scale will depend on certification, operating economics and infrastructure readiness.

Embraer’s strong delivery growth and record order streak show that the company is gaining momentum in conventional aerospace while keeping exposure to future electric aviation.

The strategic challenge is execution. Embraer must convert backlog into deliveries, expand production capacity without straining suppliers, and manage research spending while protecting margins.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Embraer’s record order streak shows that aerospace growth is broadening beyond the largest aircraft platforms. For materials suppliers, the opportunity is not only in more aircraft, but in more geographically distributed production and future electric aviation supply chains.

Energy Fuels Madagascar Rare Earths Project Faces Delay After Government Change

Energy Fuels

Energy Fuels Madagascar rare earths project is likely to face a delay after a change in government slowed negotiations for a stability agreement. The US rare earths producer said progress on the Vera Mada project in Madagascar has been held back by the administrative transition.

Energy Fuels Madagascar rare earths project had been moving toward an investment agreement before the government change in September-October last year. Chief executive Ross Bhappu said the company had been close to signing the agreement before the process slowed.

Energy Fuels Madagascar rare earths project remains strategically important because Vera Mada is expected to produce monazite, a key rare earth-bearing mineral used to feed separation and downstream processing. The company initially planned to reach a financial investment decision tied to development and commissioning by the end of 2029.

The first phase of Vera Mada is planned with capacity to produce 20,000 t/yr of monazite. Any delay could affect Energy Fuels’ timeline for building a larger rare earth feedstock platform outside China.

Vera Mada and Donald Show Feedstock Complexity

The Vera Mada delay highlights how rare earth projects depend on more than geology. Government agreements, legal stability, fiscal terms and political continuity can all determine whether a project reaches investment decision.

A stability agreement is especially important in emerging mining jurisdictions. It can provide investors with clearer expectations around taxes, permitting, operating rules and long-term project protections.

Energy Fuels is also facing delays at the Donald project in Australia. The project is a joint venture with Astron and is designed to produce 14,000 t/yr of monazite.

Donald has been slowed by the need to finalise offtake agreements for more than four heavy mineral concentrates. Energy Fuels must also coordinate those agreements with financing parties and its joint venture partner.

That process is commercially complex because monazite projects often produce several mineral streams. Each product can require separate customers, pricing structures, logistics arrangements and financing approval.

These delays show the challenge of building rare earth supply chains outside China. Upstream projects must secure feedstock, offtake, financing, regulatory approval and processing routes before they can become meaningful industrial supply.

Terbium, Dysprosium and Yttrium Lift Strategic Value

Energy Fuels is still gaining market attention from its downstream rare earth progress. The company said it received substantial offtaker interest after producing its first terbium.

The company is currently producing about 1kg of terbium each week. It plans to add dysprosium production and other heavy rare earths such as samarium, europium, gadolinium and possibly yttrium, depending on market conditions.

This matters because terbium and dysprosium are critical inputs for high-performance permanent magnets. These magnets are used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, defence systems and advanced industrial equipment.

Yttrium is also gaining strategic attention. Energy Fuels said demand and requests for yttrium from the aerospace industry are extremely strong.

The company’s first-quarter financial performance also improved. Its loss narrowed to $11mn on revenue of $36mn, compared with a $26mn loss on revenue of $17mn a year earlier.

Energy Fuels is therefore advancing on two fronts. It is building heavy rare earth separation capability, while trying to secure long-term monazite feedstock from Madagascar and Australia.

The near-term risk is timing. If Vera Mada and Donald continue to slip, Energy Fuels may need to rely more heavily on existing and alternative feedstock sources to support its rare earth growth strategy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Energy Fuels’ challenge shows that rare earth supply chains are constrained by project execution as much as processing technology. Terbium, dysprosium and yttrium demand is strong, but feedstock security will decide how quickly non-China supply can scale.

Brazil Critical Minerals Bill Moves Country Toward Domestic Processing Strategy

Critical Minerals

Brazil critical minerals bill approval by the lower house marks a major step toward turning the country’s mineral reserves into a domestic industrial development strategy. The bill establishes the national policy of critical and strategic minerals and creates incentives for companies to process and transform those materials inside Brazil.

Brazil critical minerals bill measures include a new mineral activity guarantee fund backed by R2bn in federal money. The fund will support projects linked to the production of critical and strategic minerals.

Brazil critical minerals bill incentives also include R5bn in tax credits over five years to encourage processing and transformation. This shows that Brazil does not want to remain only an exporter of raw materials.

The bill will now move to the senate. Mines and energy minister Alexandre Silveira said he will work directly with senators to accelerate approval, framing critical minerals as a matter of economic modernisation and national sovereignty.

Processing Incentives Target Value Creation Inside Brazil

The bill creates the national council for the industrialisation of critical and strategic minerals. The council will decide which minerals qualify as critical and strategic and will update the list every four years.

This structure is important because Brazil has large resource potential but still needs stronger domestic processing capacity. Without refining, separation, transformation and recycling, mineral wealth can leave the country as low-value raw material.

The proposed guarantee fund and tax credits are designed to change that pattern. They will support projects considered strategic under the national policy, with a focus on minerals that can strengthen Brazil’s industrial base.

Congress member Arnaldo Jardim, the bill’s rapporteur, said critical minerals represent a development opportunity for Brazil. He argued that the country should become a major rare earths producer, stimulate recycling through urban mining and make its processing industry more competitive.

That message reflects a broader shift in resource policy. Brazil is trying to position critical minerals as a tool for industrial development, not only export revenue.

Rare earths are especially important. Brazil has significant rare earth potential, and global buyers are searching for alternatives to China-dominated supply chains. If Brazil can move beyond mining into separation and processing, it could become more relevant to magnet, defence, electronics and clean energy markets.

Urban mining also deserves attention. Recycling can strengthen domestic supply, reduce waste and create secondary sources of critical materials from electronics, batteries, industrial scrap and end-of-life equipment.

US Interest Raises Brazil’s Strategic Importance

The bill comes as Brazil and the US are discussing critical minerals more actively. Presidents Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump are expected to meet this week, and critical minerals are likely to be part of the agenda.

The US has long sought a critical minerals agreement with Brazil. Goias state has already signed a cooperation agreement with the US, although Brazil’s federal government has challenged its legal validity.

That dispute shows how politically sensitive critical minerals have become. Foreign partnerships can bring investment and market access, but the federal government wants to ensure that strategic minerals serve national interests.

Brazil holds about 10% of global critical minerals reserves, according to domestic research and mining institutions. The sector is expected to attract $21.3bn in investment by 2030.

This gives Brazil strong leverage. The country has rare earths, niobium, graphite, nickel, lithium and other minerals that are increasingly important to batteries, magnets, aerospace, electronics and energy transition technologies.

However, reserves alone will not determine Brazil’s role. The country must build processing capacity, permitting efficiency, infrastructure, financing tools and reliable industrial partnerships.

The new policy could help unlock that pathway. If approved by the senate and implemented effectively, it could shift Brazil from a raw material supplier toward a more integrated critical minerals economy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brazil is making the right strategic move by linking critical minerals to processing, tax incentives and industrial policy. The real test will be execution: Brazil must convert resource potential into refining, separation, recycling and customer-ready supply before global competitors secure the next wave of investment.

Anglo American Copper Output Rises as Chile Offsets Quellaveco Grade Decline

Anglo American, Copper

Anglo American copper output rose slightly in the first quarter as stronger Chilean mine performance offset lower grades at Quellaveco in Peru. The global mining group produced 170,400t of copper during the quarter, up 1% from a year earlier.

Anglo American copper output was supported by higher throughput at Los Bronces and Collahuasi, along with improved recoveries at Collahuasi. Chilean copper production increased by 9% to 97,000t, while Peruvian output fell by 8% to 73,400t.

Anglo American copper output remains on track with unchanged 2026 guidance of 700,000-760,000t. The company had already lowered that target in February because of expected lower grades at Collahuasi.

The result confirms that copper remains Anglo’s strategic centre as the group continues reshaping its portfolio. Nickel is moving toward disposal, manganese is recovering from weather disruption, and copper is becoming the company’s clear lead business.

Los Bronces and Collahuasi Support Chilean Copper Performance

Los Bronces output rose by 12% to 48,500t after the restart of its second plant. The restart improved throughput and gave Anglo a stronger base in Chile during the quarter.

Collahuasi also delivered a stronger result. Anglo’s attributable share of production rose by 10% to 38,800t, supported by higher throughput and improved recoveries.

These gains helped offset weaker output from Quellaveco. The Peruvian mine faced expected lower grades, reducing copper production despite its importance as one of Anglo’s major growth assets.

The first-quarter result shows how copper production increasingly depends on ore grade, plant availability and recovery performance. Higher throughput can support output, but grade decline remains a major constraint across the industry.

Anglo’s growth is still weighted toward the second half of the year. Market attention will focus on Collahuasi’s return to higher-grade ore, the ramp-up of desalination capacity and the continued benefit from Los Bronces’ second plant restart.

The proposed merger with Teck Resources also remains important. Anglo said the deal is still on track for completion between September 2026 and March 2027. South Korean approval has been secured, leaving Chinese anti-monopoly clearance as the final major regulatory hurdle.

If completed, the merger would deepen Anglo’s copper exposure and reinforce the industry trend toward scale in high-quality copper assets.

Nickel Falls as Manganese Rebounds From Weather-Hit Base

Anglo’s nickel production fell by 7% year on year to 9,100t because of maintenance at Barro Alto and Codemin in Brazil. Barro Alto output declined by 7% to 7,500t, while Codemin fell by 6% to 1,600t.

The company expects nickel production to improve gradually from the second quarter. However, nickel is no longer central to Anglo’s long-term portfolio strategy.

Anglo is still working through the European Commission’s anti-monopoly review of the agreed sale of its nickel assets to MMG Singapore Resources. The deal is worth up to $500mn.

Manganese ore output rose sharply from a weak base. Anglo’s 40% attributable production jumped by 118% to just over 759,000t after operations recovered from the disruption caused by tropical cyclone Megan in early 2025.

Sales volumes rose even more strongly, increasing by 217% to 946,000t. However, weather still affected the business, with second-quarter output down 16% from the fourth quarter of 2025 because of adverse weather and cyclone Narelle.

The portfolio direction is now clearer. Anglo is prioritising copper and iron ore while continuing sale processes for steelmaking coal and De Beers. Nickel is becoming a disposal asset, and manganese remains a recovery story after weather-related disruption.

For copper markets, Anglo’s modest first-quarter increase is less important than its second-half execution. The company needs stronger grades, stable plant performance and project discipline to support its full-year copper target.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Anglo American’s first quarter shows that copper growth is increasingly a quality-of-ore and processing-efficiency story. The strategic focus now shifts to whether Collahuasi, Los Bronces and the Teck merger can turn Anglo into a more copper-led mining company.

Argentina Lithium Growth Could Challenge Chile’s Regional Lead

Argentina Lithium

Argentina lithium growth could reshape Latin America’s lithium map over the next decade as new projects advance under more investor-friendly rules. Argentina is expected to match Chile’s lithium output by 2035, with some industry participants arguing it could overtake Chile even earlier.

Argentina lithium growth is being supported by faster permitting, large brine resources and stronger investment incentives. By contrast, Chile’s lithium expansion remains constrained by restrictive legislation, lengthy approval processes and uncertainty around new project development.

Argentina lithium growth is strategically important because lithium remains central to electric vehicles, energy storage and battery supply chains. Global buyers want large-scale, politically stable and western hemisphere supply outside more exposed jurisdictions.

Chile remains the region’s largest producer today. However, its future output growth depends heavily on existing producers and slow-moving new projects, while Argentina has a deeper pipeline of advanced developments.

Chile’s Lithium Policy Slows New Supply

Chile has long been Latin America’s dominant lithium producer, but its regulatory system is limiting new investment. Lithium remains non-concessionable and is still treated under legislation linked to nuclear materials.

Companies seeking to extract lithium in Chile must apply for special mining contracts. These contracts are granted through public bidding processes that can be lengthy, bureaucratic and uncertain.

This creates a major exploration problem. Companies may be reluctant to explore land if they cannot be confident of later securing extraction rights.

Chile’s national lithium strategy also requires all new projects to use direct lithium extraction. DLE is viewed as more environmentally friendly than traditional evaporation ponds, but it creates technical and cost challenges.

Each DLE process must be designed around the specific chemistry of each brine resource. That means technology used at one salar cannot simply be copied at another.

This raises development costs and lengthens project timelines. Industry participants estimate that DLE projects may require investment of up to $44,000 per tonne of lithium carbonate equivalent, compared with about $26,000/t for evaporation projects.

Chile’s new supply pipeline is therefore moving slowly. The first major new project, Rio Tinto’s Maricunga, is expected only by the end of 2030, with another new project expected in 2032.

Until then, Chile may rely mainly on capacity increases from existing producers. That could limit its ability to respond to rising lithium demand if Argentina’s project pipeline accelerates.

Argentina’s Rigi Regime Attracts Lithium Capital

Argentina is moving in the opposite direction. Its government has streamlined licensing and introduced the Rigi incentive regime for large investments.

Rigi provides tax exemptions, import-export benefits and legal protections for approved projects. It also allows companies to settle certain disputes in courts outside Argentina, improving investor confidence.

Ten lithium projects have already applied to Rigi, with three approved. The programme has become a major signal to international investors seeking policy stability and faster project execution.

Argentina now has more than 60 active lithium projects and seven producing assets, the most in Latin America. Two new developments are expected to come on line this year, lifting projected output to 159,000t of lithium carbonate equivalent.

That remains below Chile’s 305,000t in 2024. However, Argentina has more than 20 projects in advanced stages, including eight close to production.

Argentina’s mining ministry expects output to reach 583,000 t/yr of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2035. That would put the country in position to match or overtake Chile if Chile’s permitting regime does not change.

The investment logic is clear. Argentina offers large brine resources, a more open policy framework and exposure to western hemisphere supply chains. That combination is increasingly attractive to battery makers, automakers and mining companies.

Chile still has enormous lithium potential. But potential alone does not create supply. Without faster approvals and clearer rules, Chile risks losing regional leadership to Argentina.

For the lithium market, this shift matters. Argentina’s rise could increase competition, diversify supply and give buyers more options in South America. It could also make Latin America’s lithium growth less dependent on Chile’s policy choices.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Argentina’s lithium advantage is not only geological; it is regulatory. Chile still has world-class resources, but Argentina is turning policy speed into supply-chain momentum.

Eramet Argentina Lithium Plant Reaches 80% Capacity as Ramp-Up Recovers

Eramet Argentina Lithium Plant

Eramet Argentina lithium plant performance improved sharply in March as the Centenario-Ratones project reached around 80% of its designed capacity. The French mining group said the plant operated near 80% of its 24,000 t/yr nameplate capacity after recovering from February production setbacks.

The Eramet Argentina lithium plant is strategically important because Argentina is becoming one of the fastest-growing lithium supply regions globally. Stronger output from Centenario-Ratones supports the country’s push to challenge Chile’s long-standing lithium leadership.

The Eramet Argentina lithium plant produced 3,720t of lithium carbonate in the first quarter. Output was limited by downstream equipment shutdowns and natural gas supply constraints, but operations normalised in March.

Centenario-Ratones Recovers After February Disruptions

Eramet temporarily shut part of its downstream equipment in February for an extended period. The work was designed to implement improvements and support the ramp-up process.

Natural gas supply constraints also limited production during the quarter. These disruptions show that lithium brine projects depend not only on resource quality, but also on reliable processing equipment and energy supply.

Centenario-Ratones achieved its highest production rate to date in March. This suggests the project is moving closer to stable commercial performance after early ramp-up challenges.

The ramp-up is expected to be completed by July at the latest. If achieved, this would strengthen Eramet’s position in Argentina’s lithium supply chain and improve near-term lithium carbonate availability.

Lithium Sales Highlight Stronger Price Environment

Eramet sold 3,920t of lithium carbonate in the first quarter, generating €57mn in revenue. That implies an average realised price of roughly $16,986/t.

The first-quarter lithium revenue already exceeded Eramet’s lithium revenue for all of 2025. This highlights the impact of stronger lithium carbonate prices and improving sales volumes.

The result matters for project economics. Higher lithium prices can support ramp-up costs, equipment improvements and working capital needs during the early production phase.

For Argentina, Centenario-Ratones adds to a growing pipeline of lithium projects backed by more investor-friendly policies. Successful ramp-up would reinforce Argentina’s role as a major future source of lithium carbonate for battery supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Centenario-Ratones shows both the opportunity and execution risk in Argentina’s lithium growth story. Strong prices improve project economics, but stable energy supply and processing reliability will decide whether ramp-up targets become sustained production.

Vale Copper Production Rises as Brazilian Mines Offset Canadian Disruptions

Vale, Brazilian Mines

Vale copper production increased in the first quarter as record combined output from the Salobo and Sossego mines strengthened the Brazilian mining group’s base metals performance. The company produced 102,300t of copper in January-March, up 12.5% from a year earlier.

Vale copper production was supported mainly by stronger domestic mine performance. Sossego output rose sharply, while Salobo posted a modest increase, helping offset weaker production from the Sudbury operation in Canada.

Vale copper production growth is important because the company is positioning copper and nickel as core transition metals. Higher output from Brazilian assets improves near-term supply while supporting Vale’s longer-term strategy to expand base metals exposure.

Salobo and Sossego Drive Copper Output Higher

Sossego delivered the strongest copper growth in the quarter. Production rose by 81.3% on the year to 29,000t, supported by strong mill performance and increased ore processing ahead of planned maintenance in the second quarter.

The stronger Sossego result shows how operational timing can influence quarterly copper supply. Vale pushed processing before maintenance, allowing the mine to lift output significantly compared with the previous year.

Salobo remained Vale’s largest copper contributor. Output increased by 1% on the year to 52,800t, giving the group a stable production base in Brazil.

Together, Salobo and Sossego delivered record combined production. This helped Vale absorb weaker performance from Sudbury, where copper output fell by nearly 10% to 20,400t.

Sudbury was affected by unexpected snowstorms and unplanned maintenance at the Clarabelle pit. The maintenance specifically hit copper concentrate production, although Vale said the issue has now been resolved.

The first-quarter result highlights the importance of geographic diversification. Stronger Brazilian output allowed Vale to grow copper production even as weather and maintenance disruptions affected Canadian operations.

Nickel Output Rises Across Canada and Brazil

Vale’s nickel production also increased in the first quarter. Total output rose by 12.3% on the year to 49,300t, supported by stronger production across Canadian and Brazilian assets.

Finished nickel production using Sudbury ore rose by 11.5% to 10,600t. This increase offset the effect of unplanned maintenance at Vale’s third converting reactor.

Voisey Bay delivered a stronger result. Nickel output rose by 61.5% on the year to 10,500t, supporting the group’s Canadian nickel performance.

Thompson moved in the opposite direction. Production fell by 66.7% to 12,000t because of a pipeline blockage worsened by poor weather conditions.

In Brazil, Onca Puma output rose by 64.8% to 8,900t. Vale said the increase was driven by the strongest production to date from the mine’s second furnace.

Nickel production from external feed in Indonesia fell by 2.2% to 18,100t. This included offtake from third parties and material linked to Vale’s local subsidiary, PT Vale Indonesia.

The mixed nickel results show that Vale’s base metals performance depends on several operating systems, including mines, furnaces, converters, external feed and weather-sensitive logistics. Still, the overall increase in nickel output strengthens Vale’s supply position in a market tied to stainless steel, batteries and high-performance alloys.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Vale’s first-quarter results show that copper and nickel growth increasingly depends on operational reliability, not only resource size. Stronger Brazilian output gave Vale a buffer against Canadian disruptions, reinforcing the strategic value of diversified base metals production.

Brazil Mineral Exports Rise as Imports Climb on Fertilizer Feedstock Demand

Brazil Mining

Brazil mineral exports increased in the first quarter of 2026, while imports rose more sharply as the country continued to rely on overseas supply for fertilizer-related minerals. National mining institute Ibram reported that mineral exports rose by nearly 1% from a year earlier, while imports increased by 15%.

Brazil mineral exports reached around 87.9mn t in the quarter, with China remaining the main destination. Iron ore accounted for nearly 54% of total shipments, reinforcing its central role in Brazil’s mining trade balance.

Brazil mineral exports continued to support a large sectoral surplus. The mineral trade surplus reached around $9.3bn in the first quarter, up 20% from the same period in 2025, supported by exports of iron ore, gold and copper.

Iron Ore, Gold and Copper Anchor Brazil’s Mining Surplus

Iron ore remained Brazil’s dominant mineral export in the first quarter. This reflects the country’s established role as one of the world’s key suppliers to steelmaking markets, especially China.

Gold and copper also contributed to export value. These metals are strategically important because gold supports financial and industrial demand, while copper is increasingly tied to grids, electrification, construction and manufacturing.

The rise in the mining trade surplus shows that Brazil’s mineral sector remains a strong foreign-exchange earner. Even modest export volume growth can generate a larger surplus when high-value commodities and stronger pricing conditions support trade values.

China’s role remains especially important. Brazilian iron ore exports depend heavily on Chinese steel demand, infrastructure activity and industrial production. Any slowdown in China can therefore affect Brazil’s mining revenue outlook.

Imports Highlight Fertilizer and Industrial Supply Dependence

Brazil imported 10mn t of mineral products in the first quarter. The US was the largest supplier, accounting for 19% of mineral imports, while Colombia and Canada each supplied about 13%.

Potassium, coal and sulphur led import flows. These materials are important for fertilizer supply and industrial activity, showing that Brazil’s mineral strength does not remove its dependence on imported inputs.

Potassium is especially important for Brazil’s agricultural sector. The country is a major global food producer, but fertilizer supply remains exposed to international trade flows and geopolitical risk.

Sulphur imports also matter because sulphur is used to produce sulphuric acid, a critical input for fertilizers, chemical processing and some mining operations. Coal imports continue to support industrial and energy-related demand.

Ibram projects mining sector investment to rise by 12.5% by 2030, reaching $76.9bn. Critical minerals could account for almost 28% of that total, or $21.3bn.

This investment outlook points to a broader shift in Brazil’s mining strategy. Iron ore will remain the export backbone, but copper, nickel, lithium, rare earths, graphite and other critical minerals could gain strategic importance as global supply chains diversify.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brazil’s first-quarter trade data show a mining sector that remains strong in exports but still dependent on imported fertilizer and industrial inputs. The next opportunity lies in converting critical minerals investment into higher-value production beyond the country’s traditional iron ore base.

Largo Vanadium Pentoxide Output Doubles as Brazil Ore Grades Improve

Largo

Largo vanadium pentoxide output more than doubled in the first quarter as higher-grade ore and steadier processing lifted production at the Maracás Menchen Mine in Brazil. The Canadian metals producer produced 2,616t of V2O5 during the quarter, up 101.7% from a year earlier.

The result placed Largo vanadium pentoxide output at the upper end of the company’s first-quarter expectations. It also showed a clear operational recovery from stronger ore availability and more consistent processing performance.

Largo vanadium pentoxide output is important because vanadium demand is gaining support from steelmaking, aerospace alloys, chemical catalysts and vanadium redox flow batteries. Higher Brazilian production adds supply at a time when energy storage demand is becoming a larger part of the vanadium market.

Higher Ore Volumes and Grades Lift Vanadium Production

Largo mined 852,046t of ore in the first quarter, up 90.8% from a year earlier. The effective ore grade rose to 0.48% V2O5 from 0.41% in 2025.

The higher ore grade improved plant feed quality and supported stronger recovery through the processing circuit. More consistent ore processing also helped the company convert higher mined volumes into finished vanadium pentoxide.

Sales volumes rose by nearly 4% on the year to 2,141t. Largo cited stronger vanadium demand and reduced US tariffs on Brazilian exports as key drivers behind the increase.

The company expects stronger sales in the second quarter. This reflects a lag in sales realisation and higher pricing achieved in the second half of the first quarter after the US tariff reduction.

For the vanadium market, the result points to improving supply from one of the main non-Chinese producers. That matters as buyers look for diversified sources of vanadium outside China’s large steel-linked production base.

Ilmenite and By-Products Add Resource Optionality

Largo also increased ilmenite production from January to April. Output reached about 11,500t, up 32.7% from a year earlier, while sales volumes were close to the same level.

Ilmenite provides Largo with another revenue stream linked to titanium feedstock markets. Titanium dioxide, welding consumables and titanium metal supply chains all depend on stable mineral feedstock availability.

The company also filed a request on 10 April to authorise production and sales of copper, platinum group metals, nickel and cobalt as by-products of its vanadium operations.

This step could improve resource recovery and strengthen project economics if the by-products can be recovered commercially. It would also align Largo with a wider industry trend toward extracting more value from complex ore bodies.

By-product recovery is increasingly important in critical minerals supply chains. Producers are looking to capture cobalt, nickel, PGMs and other metals where they already exist in operating systems, reducing waste and improving supply efficiency.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Largo’s first-quarter performance shows how quickly vanadium supply can improve when ore grade and plant consistency recover together. The by-product strategy could become equally important if it turns Maracás Menchen into a broader critical minerals platform.

Aclara Rare Earth Oxides Plan Links Brazil Mining to US Separation

aclara

Aclara rare earth oxides production plans have been reaffirmed for the Carina project in Brazil, strengthening the company’s role in the emerging Americas rare earth supply chain. The Brazilian rare earth producer expects to produce more than 4,300 t/yr of rare earth oxides from 2028.

Aclara rare earth oxides output is expected to average 4,378 t/yr contained in mixed rare earth concentrate. The planned product mix includes 1,191 t/yr of neodymium-praseodymium, 156 t/yr of dysprosium and 27 t/yr of terbium.

Aclara rare earth oxides are strategically important because NdPr, dysprosium and terbium are key inputs for high-performance permanent magnets. These magnets are used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, defence systems and advanced industrial motors.

The Carina project is expected to have an 18-year mine life. Production costs are estimated at $29.20/kg of rare earth oxide produced, giving investors and customers a clearer basis for assessing the project’s long-term competitiveness.

Carina Project Adds Heavy Rare Earths to the Americas Supply Base

The Carina project’s value is not limited to light rare earths. Its mixed rare earth concentrate also contains several heavy rare earth elements that are difficult to secure outside China-linked supply chains.

Aclara expects annual output to include 173 t of samarium, 176 t of gadolinium, 10 t of lutetium and 1,160 t of yttrium. These materials add strategic depth to the project because heavy rare earth supply remains highly concentrated and increasingly sensitive to export controls.

Dysprosium and terbium are especially important for magnet performance. They improve heat resistance and magnetic stability in demanding applications such as EV traction motors, wind turbine generators and defence electronics.

The project therefore fits a wider western effort to build alternative rare earth supply chains. Brazil offers mineral potential, while the US provides downstream policy support and processing infrastructure incentives.

Construction at Carina is scheduled to begin in the third quarter of 2026. Initial output is expected in the second half of 2028, followed by ramp-up in 2029.

Louisiana Separation Plan Builds Downstream Magnet Chain

Aclara plans to send material from Carina to Louisiana for separation and processing. The US site will produce rare earth metals and alloys, moving the project beyond mine supply into downstream magnet material preparation.

This structure matters because rare earth security depends on more than mining. Mixed rare earth concentrate must be separated, refined, converted into metals and alloyed before it can support permanent magnet production.

The Louisiana processing route could therefore create a more integrated Brazil-US rare earth chain. It links Brazilian ionic clay-style rare earth resources with US separation, metal and alloy capacity.

Public-sector support strengthens the project’s strategic profile. The US International Development Finance Corporation provided $5mn for Carina’s development, while Louisiana granted $46mn in tax incentives to accelerate the separation project.

For western magnet manufacturers, Aclara’s model offers potential supply diversification. The company could provide NdPr, dysprosium and terbium units into a market where downstream users are actively seeking non-China material.

However, execution remains critical. The project must move through construction, commissioning, ramp-up and qualification before it can become a reliable supply source for magnet makers and strategic customers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aclara’s plan shows that rare earth competitiveness now depends on linking mine output with separation and metal conversion. The Brazil-Louisiana route could become strategically important if it delivers heavy rare earth volumes into the Americas magnet supply chain.

Codelco Copper Performance Faces Review Under Chile’s Kast Administration

Codelco

Codelco copper performance will come under tougher scrutiny as Chile’s new administration prepares to review the state-controlled miner’s finances, management and operational execution. Economy and mining minister Daniel Mas said the government will take a “very critical look” at Codelco to ensure it remains a major national company.

Codelco copper performance matters because the company remains one of the world’s largest copper producers, with direct output of 1.3mn t in 2025 and 1.4mn t including its share in non-operated mines. Any operational weakness at Codelco has direct implications for Chile’s copper supply, fiscal revenue and global refined copper expectations.

Codelco copper performance has also become a political issue because the company faces rising debt, safety concerns and cost overruns at major mine-life extension projects. The shareholder review scheduled for 20 April will focus on areas requiring concrete measures to improve performance.

Debt, Cost Overruns and Mine Projects Drive Government Scrutiny

The Kast administration’s review will examine Codelco’s financial position, management quality, safety record and project execution. Mas pointed to cost overruns tied to the renovation of Codelco’s corporate offices in Santiago and major investments at Rajo Inca and Chuquicamata underground.

These projects are strategically important because they support mine-life extensions at core Chilean copper assets. However, overruns can pressure capital discipline at a time when copper producers already face higher costs, lower ore grades and more complex underground development.

Mas also highlighted Codelco’s debt burden. The company took on $8.7bn in debt to help finance around $7bn in contributions to the state between 2022 and 2025, creating tension between its role as a national revenue source and its need to reinvest in production stability.

Lithium Strategy Review Adds Another Layer to Codelco’s Role

The government also plans to review Chile’s national lithium strategy inherited from the previous administration. However, Mas said the Codelco-SQM lithium venture will have security to operate if all legal stages have been completed.

Chile’s comptroller general approved the joint venture in December 2025, which was regarded as the final condition for the deal. The transaction gives Codelco 50% plus one share in Nova Lithium, the joint venture with SQM.

Mas argued that Codelco’s 2025 profit of $2.4bn was not a pure copper result, because only $388mn came from copper sales. The rest came mainly from the fair value of the SQM-linked lithium acquisition, adding to debate over how Codelco’s performance should be measured.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Chile’s review of Codelco shows that national copper champions face rising pressure to prove operational discipline, not only resource ownership. The bigger issue is whether Codelco can fund copper renewal, manage lithium expansion and still deliver fiscal value to the state.