Butting Alabama stainless pipe plant to anchor US expansion

Butting

The Butting Alabama stainless pipe plant will house the company’s US headquarters and first factory. The Butting Alabama stainless pipe plant represents a $61mn investment in Baldwin County. The Butting Alabama stainless pipe plant strengthens domestic stainless supply near Mobile.

Phase one: headquarters and cryogenic fabrication

Butting will build its US headquarters with engineering and fabrication functions. The first phase includes stainless spools, components, and cryogenic pipe systems. Construction is expected to begin in the fall. This phase establishes talent, tooling, and customer qualification pathways.

Phase two: welded pipe mills and capacity growth

The second phase adds two stainless welded pipe mills. It also expands cryogenic production and broader fabrication capabilities. As a result, US buyers gain localized lead times and lower logistics risk. The phased plan targets energy, LNG, chemicals, and industrial projects across the Gulf Coast.

The investment supports reshoring across stainless and specialty piping. Meanwhile, regional suppliers can align material grades and specs faster. Therefore, project developers can reduce schedule slippage and inventory costs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Butting’s two-step build creates early customer access, then mill-scale depth. Execution will hinge on workforce, power, and niche alloy sourcing. Watch order backlogs and Gulf Coast project awards through phase two.

SSAB Delays Lulea Fossil-Free Steel Mill Project by One Year

SSAB

Electricity Supply Delays Impact Lulea Mini-Mill Timeline

Swedish steelmaker SSAB has postponed the transformation of its Lulea facility into a fossil-free mini-mill by one year. The delay is attributed to setbacks in securing sufficient electricity supply, caused by regional grid upgrade issues. Construction of key substations has been hindered by outage planning problems, leaving the site without the power needed to operate its electric arc furnaces (EAF).

Investment and Production Targets at Risk

SSAB initially approved a €4.5bn investment in January 2022 to build the new mini-mill, replacing its existing blast furnace-based production. The facility will feature two EAFs, a direct strip rolling mill, and a cold rolling line for automotive steels. Once operational, the site is expected to produce 2.5mn t/yr of steel using both recycled scrap and fossil-free sponge iron from the Hybrid demonstration plant in Gallivare. Plans originally targeted 2028 for the first EAF to become operational, reaching full capacity in 2029. However, these milestones are now delayed by one year.

Despite the postponement, SSAB confirmed it will still move forward with EAF installation and maintain its long-term transition strategy. In late 2024, the company secured a €128mn grant from the European Commission to support the transition from coal-based production to a near net-zero emission system, reinforcing its commitment to sustainability despite the temporary setback.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SSAB’s delay underscores the critical role of reliable electricity infrastructure in steel sector decarbonisation. Without timely grid upgrades, even large investments risk losing momentum. The company’s continued push toward fossil-free steel highlights both the opportunities and challenges of Europe’s green industrial transition.

Nationalisation Could Prolong Surplus Steel Capacity

Nationalisation and Its Impact on Surplus Steel

Worldsteel warns that nationalisation may keep surplus steel capacity alive despite market inefficiencies and decarbonisation pressures. At the Global Steel Dynamics Forum in New York, director general Edwin Basson said governments have increasingly intervened in struggling steel mills across Europe and the UK. He stressed that nationalisation or quasi-nationalisation often prioritises employment and national interests over economic efficiency, preventing the natural closure of redundant capacity.

Decarbonisation and Regional Challenges

Steel decarbonisation remains critical, but regional energy access will shape strategies. Basson noted that half of global steel will still rely on blast furnaces in the next 20 years because of limited scrap supply and insufficient high-quality direct-reduced iron feedstock. In the EU, decarbonisation is especially pressing as mills face mounting carbon taxes and high energy costs. Scandinavian producers benefit from renewable energy and quality feedstock, while southern and northern Europe face challenges related to energy and raw material access.

The Future of Efficiency and Technology

Worldsteel believes technological innovation could help blast furnaces remain relevant in a low-carbon future. Exponential advancements could reduce emissions from blast furnaces to levels comparable with gas-fed direct-reduced iron and electric arc furnace processes. Basson suggested that Europe may soften its policies to allow current production routes to remain competitive while breakthrough technologies mature.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Nationalisation risks delaying the rationalisation of surplus steel capacity, adding inefficiency to an industry already burdened by decarbonisation costs. However, innovation in blast furnace technology may provide a pragmatic pathway, balancing national interests with climate commitments. The steel sector’s future will depend on aligning environmental priorities with economic realities.

Eurofer Warns of Fourth Consecutive Year of EU Steel Demand Recession

Eurofer

Steel Market Weakness Deepens Amid Tariff Pressure and Global Overcapacity

The European Steel Association (Eurofer) forecasts that EU apparent steel consumption will contract by 0.9% in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline. This represents a sharp reversal from its earlier prediction of 2.2% growth. Steel-using sectors are also projected to shrink by 0.5%, instead of the 1.6% recovery previously expected.

Eurofer cites the new U.S. 50% tariffs on steel as a significant additional burden on an already fragile market. Global overcapacity, high energy costs, and geopolitical tensions continue to erode the competitiveness of EU steelmakers. As a result, producers may face capacity closures, job losses, and delays in decarbonisation investments.

The association now expects any demand recovery to be postponed until the first quarter of 2026, contingent on improvements in global economic conditions. If no resolution is reached between the EU and U.S. over tariffs, Eurofer urges the European Commission to enact emergency trade measures under its Steel and Metals Action Plan.

In 2024, EU apparent steel consumption declined by 1.1%, while domestic deliveries fell 2%. Steel-using industries, particularly automotive and construction, contracted by 3.7%, intensifying the sector’s challenges.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Eurofer’s outlook underscores the compounding impact of trade disputes, structural overcapacity, and energy costs on Europe’s steel industry. Without swift trade safeguards and competitive energy pricing, EU steelmakers risk losing ground to global rivals, jeopardising both jobs and decarbonisation goals.

Mexico Steel Import Restrictions Tighten as Government Purges Foreign Suppliers

Mexico Steel

Over 1,000 Steel Suppliers Face Removal Amid Triangulation Concerns

Mexico steel import restrictions are intensifying as the government moves to purge 1,062 foreign suppliers from its official registry. The Ministry of Economy uncovered irregularities in over 47% of registered foreign steel firms, with many found to be non-existent or misrepresented. Authorities are conducting site inspections in six countries, including Malaysia.

Anti-Tariff Triangulation Drives Trade Crackdown

The move aims to prevent tariff circumvention practices, especially the rerouting of Chinese steel through Mexico to access the U.S. duty-free. Mexico steel import restrictions follow U.S. accusations of trade triangulation and recent tariff increases under former President Donald Trump. Despite exemptions under USMCA, Banco BASE estimates Mexico faces a 19.51% effective tariff rate on goods entering the U.S.

Domestic Steel Use to Rise in Energy Infrastructure

Mexico’s government is pushing for more domestic steel usage in national energy projects. The state utility CFE plans to increase the use of Mexican steel in transmission towers from 30% to 60% by 2030. However, limited domestic suppliers for turbines and generators remain a bottleneck. Engineers are consulting on integrating Mexican-made cable and steel into upcoming infrastructure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Mexico’s regulatory push highlights a broader shift toward trade transparency and domestic industrial development. The steel sector will feel immediate impacts, but long-term resilience hinges on capacity-building within Mexico’s heavy equipment supply chain.

Japan’s Iron Ore Imports Drop in March Amid Weak Steel Demand

Iron Ore

March Iron Ore Imports Dip Despite Monthly Rebound

Japan's iron ore imports declined by 1.2pc year-on-year in March, reflecting weak steel demand and lower shipments from Brazil. The country imported 8.1mn tonnes of iron ore, although this marked a 28pc rise from February, according to preliminary finance ministry data.

The average import price was $102.20/t, down 17pc from the same month last year.

In yen terms, the price averaged ¥15,283, also a 17pc year-on-year decline, underscoring a softer raw materials market.

Brazil Shipments Fall Amid Weather and Maintenance Disruptions

Shipments from Brazil—Japan’s second-largest iron ore supplier—were disrupted by heavy rainfall and terminal maintenance. Brazil’s overall iron ore exports fell by 10pc year-on-year in February, reaching 24.5mn tonnes, the lowest level for that month since 2023.

Japan reportedly imported around 2.6mn tonnes from Brazil in March, but country-specific data will be confirmed later in April. The shortfall in Brazilian supply likely contributed to Japan’s reduced overall iron ore intake.

Domestic Steel Output Outlook Remains Sluggish

Japan's steel production is expected to fall by 4.9pc year-on-year in the April–June quarter. The trade and industry ministry (METI) projects steel output at 20.2mn tonnes, reflecting sluggish domestic demand in construction and manufacturing.

Lower steel production directly impacts iron ore requirements, weakening import volumes and softening global iron ore prices.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Japan's lower iron ore imports in March reflect a broader industrial slowdown and disrupted raw material flows. As steel production forecasts weaken, pressure mounts on iron ore prices and global supply chain predictability.

India Proposes 12% Safeguard Duty on Steel Imports to Curb Surge

India steel

DGTR Moves to Protect Domestic Mills Amid Import Spike and Global Trade Shifts

India Responds to Steel Import Surge with Temporary Protection

India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has proposed a 12% provisional safeguard duty on flat steel imports to support the struggling domestic steel industry. The measure, if approved, would remain in effect for 200 days, according to a DGTR notice released on 18 March.

The recommendation comes in response to a sharp rise in imports of hot-rolled coils (HRC), cold-rolled sheets, galvanized, and color-coated steel. The agency cited a “sudden, sharp and significant increase” in volumes that threatens local producers. Indian steel mills had earlier pushed for a higher 25% duty, but the DGTR settled on a lower rate.

Trade Diversion Drives Surge in Imports

The investigation began in December, following a complaint from the Indian Steel Association. The DGTR linked the import surge to trade flow shifts caused by U.S. Section 232 tariffs and similar global protectionist actions. These measures redirected steel exports from major producers like South Korea, China, and Japan toward India.

India turned into a net steel importer in the 2023–24 fiscal year. Between April 2024 and January 2025, finished steel imports rose 21% year-over-year to 8.4 million tonnes, government data show. South Korea led the inflows, followed by China and Japan, who together made up over 75% of total imports.

Selective Exemptions and Domestic Price Reactions

The proposed duty will not apply to HRC imports priced above $675/t cif, offering a price-based exemption. Furthermore, most developing countries will be exempt, except for China and Vietnam, which each account for more than 3% of India’s total steel imports.

The expectation of protectionist measures has already pushed domestic HRC prices higher, reversing the multi-year lows seen earlier in 2024. Market participants had warned of continued price weakness without government intervention.

A final ruling will follow a public hearing, the DGTR said.

EU to Implement ‘Melt and Pour’ Rule in Steel Trade Defense

EU Steel

New origin rule targets duty evasion and strengthens trade protections

The European Commission will introduce a “melted and poured” clause as part of its steel and metals action plan, aimed at tightening trade defense measures across the EU steel sector. This clause will assign origin based on where steel was originally melted, regardless of later processing locations.

Steel Origin Rules Target Evasion via Minimal Processing

The move addresses growing concerns that foreign producers—especially in countries like China—circumvent EU tariffs through minimal downstream processing. For example, converting hot-rolled steel into hot-dip galvanised outside the EU currently allows for reclassification, bypassing existing anti-dumping duties.

With the new rule, such transformations will no longer alter origin, preventing manipulation and reinforcing fair-trade enforcement. According to a draft of the plan, this rule will clarify product origin and prevent exploitation of loopholes in trade regulations.

Broader Measures Target Steel Overcapacity and Carbon Leakage

In addition to the melt and pour clause, the European Commission plans to proactively launch investigations based on “threat of injury” instead of waiting for economic harm. The action plan also extends the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to include downstream steel products, such as finished or semi-finished components.

This change addresses the risk that producers may shift exports to downstream goods to avoid carbon taxes on raw materials. European steel service centers and distributors have demanded such protections to prevent unfair import competition and carbon leakage.

Trade groups like Eurofer have long requested these rules, especially as Chinese-origin steel continues entering the EU via indirect supply chains. A representative from a major steel trading firm called the new clause a "game changer" for the European market.

JSW Group to Invest $11.4 Billion in a New Steel Plant in Maharashtra

JSW Group

India’s JSW Group has announced plans to build a new 25 million tons per year (mn t/yr) steel plant in the Gadchiroli district of Maharashtra. This massive investment of 1 trillion rupees ($11.4 billion) is expected to span over the next seven to eight years, with the first phase of construction set to begin in four years. This move marks a significant step in JSW’s continued growth and commitment to bolstering India's industrial capacity.

Strategic Location for Growth

JSW Group's chairman and managing director, Sajjan Jindal, highlighted the strategic importance of Vidarbha, Maharashtra, where the new plant will be built. The region’s vast mineral resources, including iron ore, manganese, and chromite, make it an ideal location for the steel plant. With three-quarters of Maharashtra’s mineral resources located in Vidarbha, the area is poised to become a major industrial hub. Furthermore, its central location within India and robust railway connectivity further enhance the potential for seamless transportation of materials across the country.

A Commitment to Job Creation and Industrial Development

In line with the steel plant project, JSW Group has also signed an agreement with the Maharashtra government to invest Rs 3 trillion in various sectors such as steel, renewable energy, and electric vehicles. This investment is expected to generate thousands of new jobs in the region, contributing significantly to Maharashtra's economic growth. This announcement, made at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, underscores JSW's commitment to driving India’s industrial development.

The Role of Local Partners

JSW Group’s new steel plant will produce "basic steel" at the Gadchiroli facility, with the potential for further value-added products. Jindal also emphasized the need for other companies to establish units in the region, such as rolling mills, to produce finished steel products. One of the key partners in the region is Lloyds Metals and Energy (LMEL), which operates a significant iron ore facility in Gadchiroli and plays a vital role in supplying raw materials for the plant.

The announcement of this new steel plant signals a bright future for the region, offering a blend of industrial growth, job creation, and the strategic use of local natural resources.

Projected Recovery in Japan's Crude Steel Output in FY 2025, IEEJ Reports

IEEJ

Japan is poised for a rebound in crude steel production in the fiscal year 2025, driven by an upturn in broader domestic industrial sectors such as automotive, electronics, and industrial machinery, as per the latest forecast from the Institution of Energy Economy Japan (IEEJ).

Growth in Domestic Industries Fuels Steel Production

According to the IEEJ's projections announced on December 24, Japan’s crude steel output is anticipated to increase by 4.1% year-on-year to 86.5 million tons in FY 2024-25. This marks the first annual growth in four years, signaling a significant recovery in the sector. The uptrend in domestic car production, expected to rise by 1.8% to 8.9 million units, is a key factor contributing to this resurgence. Furthermore, investments in digitalization and green technologies are expected to support sustained demand for steel throughout the forecast period.

Export Outlook and Challenges

The IEEJ also expects a modest increase in Japan's steel product exports by 1.2% year-on-year, following positive trends in the global manufacturing sectors. This comes after Japan exported approximately 32 million tons of steel products in the previous fiscal year, as reported by the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF).

Despite this optimistic forecast, the steel industry has faced challenges such as rising material costs and labor shortages, which have impacted the construction sector and dampened steel demand. Additionally, operational disruptions at major automotive manufacturers like Toyota and Daihatsu, due to issues with safety test reporting, have further strained demand. These factors have contributed to a protracted period of decline in steel orders, particularly for automobile manufacturing, with a tenth consecutive month of year-on-year decline observed in October.

Japan’s Crude Steel Output Falls for Ninth Straight Month in November

JISF

Japan's crude steel production declined for the ninth consecutive month in November 2023, reflecting persistent weak demand from the construction sector. The country produced 6.9 million tonnes (mn t) of crude steel, a 3.1% year-on-year decrease, according to preliminary data from the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF) released on December 20.

Production via the basic oxygen furnace (BOF) process remained stable at 5.1mn t, while output from electric arc furnaces (EAFs), commonly used for steel products in construction, fell by 11% to 1.8mn t. This marks the second consecutive month of double-digit declines for EAF production, signaling prolonged weakness in the construction industry.

Seasonal and Structural Challenges

The autumn months of October and November typically represent a peak season for Japan’s construction industry as firms push to complete projects before the disruptive winter months. However, rising material costs and labor shortages have dampened sentiment in the sector, further curbing steel demand.

The construction and automotive industries are critical to Japan’s steel market. BOF steel primarily serves the automotive sector, while EAF steel products cater heavily to construction. With construction activity lagging, EAF production has borne the brunt of the downturn.

Producers Adjust Output Forecasts

Japan’s major steel producer, JFE Holdings, revised its crude steel output forecast downward on November 6. The company now expects to produce 22.4mn t for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, 600,000 tonnes less than its earlier estimate. JFE attributed this adjustment to weaker-than-expected steel demand from the construction industry.

EU Launches Review of Steel Import Safeguard Tariffs: Changes Expected from April 2025

The European Commission(EC)

The European Commission(EC) has officially launched a review of its steel import safeguard tariff-rate quotas, with proposed changes to take effect from 1 April 2025. This review, which follows a request by 13 EU member states on 29 November 2024, aims to address the evolving dynamics of steel imports into the EU. The focus will be on adjusting quotas, particularly in light of a contraction in EU demand and a rise in Chinese steel exports, which have led to shifts in trade flows.

Key Changes Under Review for Steel Safeguard Tariffs

The EC's review will examine several key aspects of the current steel import safeguard measures. Among the possible changes is the introduction of a new quota volume. EU steel producers have expressed concerns that current duty-free quota volumes no longer align with the demand in the EU, with some regions experiencing gaps due to shrinking consumption. Additionally, an increase in Chinese steel exports has led to an influx of steel from other countries into the EU market, further complicating the allocation of quotas.

The EC will reassess how these quotas are managed and allocated. Producers and users have been invited to provide feedback via a questionnaire, which must be submitted by 10 January 2025. Some of the other factors under evaluation include the exclusion of certain developing countries from the safeguard measures based on their 2024 imports, as well as potential updates to the level of liberalization within the quotas.

The steel safeguard measures, which were first introduced provisionally in 2018, became definitive in 2019. Initially set for a three-year period, they were extended for another year until June 2024 and then further extended until June 2026. Recent updates to these measures have had a noticeable impact on trade, particularly with the cap on hot-rolled coils (HRC) and wire rod quotas from ‘other countries’ being limited to 15% per origin. This has resulted in a significant reduction in import opportunities, especially for smaller markets.

The Impact of the Quota Review on Steel Imports

The current steel import safeguard measures have significantly impacted trade flows within the EU. In previous years, quotas would exhaust quickly after being reset each quarter, but the 15% cap on 'other countries' volumes has left a larger portion of the quotas underused. While there were expectations that some countries, like South Korea, could increase exports to the EU in April 2025 when residual quota volumes become available, the upcoming review could alter this outlook.

With EU imports largely unaffected by these changes so far due to a rush to buy final volumes before the duties apply, the redistribution of quotas will be a key focus of the review. The EC aims to ensure that the safeguard measures strike a balance between protecting EU producers and allowing for sufficient import access to meet demand. These changes, when finalized, could have significant implications for steel producers and importers alike, influencing trade relationships and steel prices in the EU market.

Trade Measures to Dominate Steel Industry in 2025: Focus on Imports and Global Overcapacity

China Steel Factory

Trade protection measures have been the focal point of the global steel industry throughout 2024, with little indication of this trend slowing down in 2025. Steel producers, industry associations, and governments worldwide are increasingly advocating for stronger import barriers to safeguard domestic markets and improve the competitiveness of their industries. In particular, European steel mills have been at the forefront of this movement, calling for more robust action to combat what they view as unfair imports and growing overcapacity in the global market.

European Steel Industry Pushes for Stronger Import Protection

Eurofer, the industry association for European steel manufacturers, has been particularly vocal about the need for stronger trade defence instruments. The association has urged the European Union to implement short-term emergency measures, including import tariffication, to curb the influx of low-cost steel products. Eurofer's stance has been largely driven by the EU’s ambitious decarbonisation goals, with the bloc committing billions of euros in investment. Steel producers argue that the EU's current measures are insufficient, particularly in light of increasing steel imports from countries with lower production costs and fewer environmental regulations.

Significant progress has already been made, with Eurofer helping secure changes to the EU’s safeguard system for key products like hot-rolled coils (HRC) and wire rods. Additionally, the EU anti-dumping investigation targeting several HRC suppliers has gained traction, and further investigations are planned on downstream steel products. As European steel suppliers continue to collect evidence of unfair trade practices, more scrutiny is expected on countries like China, India, and Vietnam.

The Impact of Global Overcapacity and Chinese Steel Exports

The issue of global steel overcapacity has also been a major concern. The OECD has raised alarms about the growing steel production capacity, projecting a 158 million tonnes per year increase in global capacity between 2024 and 2026. This expansion, however, comes at a time when global steel demand remains uncertain. Despite this, steel exports from non-OECD countries have been recovering since 2023, particularly from China, whose steel exports surged by 22.6% from January to November 2024.

China has also been exporting record volumes of semi-finished steel, despite the country’s preference for exporting higher-value products. As China continues to ramp up exports, it has attracted the attention of both European and global policymakers, leading to new protectionist measures targeting Chinese steel. This includes potential investigations and pending duties on Chinese steel, which could affect up to 15 million tonnes per year of exports.

Countries like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia are also seeing increases in steel exports, contributing to the global capacity glut. Turkey, a major market for Chinese steel, has already imposed duties on imports from China, India, Russia, and Japan in response to the increasing influx of steel from these regions. The EU is similarly considering the inclusion of Indonesia in its safeguard measures due to the country’s rising steel exports to Europe. From July to October 2024, Indonesia exported 494,650 tonnes of HRC to the EU, surpassing the previous half-year period, a trend that is expected to continue.

Investigations and Measures Targeting Global Steel Exporters

The growing export volumes from India and Vietnam, along with the rise in Indonesia’s exports to Europe, have prompted investigations into dumping practices in these countries. The EU has already initiated anti-dumping investigations on steel products from Egypt, Japan, India, and Vietnam, with the preliminary results of these investigations expected in March 2025. If these investigations lead to findings of unfair trade practices, retroactive duties could be applied, further tightening global trade conditions.

In response, producers are gearing up for a potential wave of new safeguard measures and anti-dumping duties. Countries that are impacted by these measures may look to retaliate, creating a complex global trade landscape for steel. As trade protectionism increases, the global steel market is expected to undergo significant shifts in the coming years.

EU May Tighten Steel Safeguard in Response to Global Overcapacity

The European Commission

The European Commission is set to review its existing steel safeguard measures, possibly tightening them significantly due to persistent weak market conditions. This action comes as part of the Commission's annual review, which could be expedited in light of mounting global overcapacity. Sources suggest that the Commission may announce its decision as early as next week.

The current global overcapacity in steel production is placing additional strain on the European market, where demand for steel remains weak. As a result, industry insiders are urging the Commission to reconsider the planned 1% liberalization of the steel import quota. This adjustment would allow importers to secure a greater share of the European market, which is shrinking due to both supply overabundance and lackluster domestic demand.

The Commission is also expected to further tighten import volumes beyond the existing 15% cap on the "other countries" quota. Industry experts anticipate additional investigations into alleged dumping practices from countries such as Egypt, Japan, India, Vietnam, South Korea, and Indonesia. These investigations could potentially lead to higher tariffs or other protective measures for European steel producers.

Specifically, there are discussions regarding the inclusion of hot-rolled coil (HRC) from several countries, including Egypt, Japan, India, and Vietnam. Furthermore, the European Union could extend its scrutiny to Vietnamese hot-dip galvanized steel, South Korean and Indonesian plate steel, and cold-rolled coil from Taiwan. Additional investigations could also target other Asian countries selling HRC and downstream products.

European steel mills have long been advocating for stricter measures, claiming that the current safeguards are insufficient to protect the industry from the flood of cheaper imports. The impending review by the European Commission may result in a significant shift in the European Union's trade strategy for steel, with potential long-term effects on both domestic producers and foreign exporters.

Eurofer Downgrades 2024 Steel Consumption Forecast Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Market Challenges

Eurofer

The European steel industry faces ongoing turbulence as Eurofer, the European Steel Association, has downgraded its 2024 steel consumption forecast. Instead of the previously expected 1.4% recovery, Eurofer now predicts a 1.8% contraction in apparent steel consumption for the year. This revision follows a combination of escalating geopolitical tensions, rising energy costs, and the continuation of a downtrend observed in recent quarters.

Revised Forecasts and Industry Outlook

Eurofer has also adjusted its forecast for the output of steel-using sectors, now anticipating a decline of 2.7%, down from the previously expected 1.6%. Despite these declines, the forecast for 2024 is less severe compared to last year, when apparent steel consumption fell by 6%. Looking ahead to 2025, Eurofer projects a 3.8% recovery in apparent consumption and a 1.6% increase in output from steel-using sectors. However, this expected rebound comes after consecutive annual declines, indicating that it reflects more of a recovery from a period of stagnation rather than a genuine improvement in demand.

Sector-Specific Challenges

Several key sectors that typically drive steel demand in Europe are facing significant headwinds. The automotive industry, a major consumer of flat steel, is grappling with the aggressive pricing strategies of Chinese automakers, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector. This competitive pressure has led Volkswagen, one of Europe’s largest car manufacturers, to announce the closure of at least three plants and lay off thousands of employees in Germany.

The challenges are not limited to the automotive sector. In the construction industry, a lack of investment, high production costs, and financing constraints are negatively impacting steel demand. Similarly, the white goods sector is also struggling with high production costs, which are expected to worsen once the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) comes into effect in 2026. While the CBAM will not fully cover downstream industries like white goods at first, its eventual extension is expected to raise steel prices within the EU, potentially affecting European white goods' competitiveness, particularly against imports from China.

Looking Ahead: Steel Consumption in 2025

Despite the setbacks in 2024, Eurofer remains cautiously optimistic about 2025, projecting a modest recovery. However, the road to recovery is complicated by external pressures, including geopolitical tensions and global market shifts. The full impact of the CBAM, combined with ongoing challenges in key industries like automotive and construction, will likely continue to shape the steel market in Europe over the coming years.

EU Steel Industry Faces Key Policy Shifts: A Call for Concrete Measures

EU Steel

The mood among European policy makers regarding the steel industry has notably shifted, with increasing support for the sector’s future. According to Axel Eggert, director-general of Eurofer, the European steel industry association, policymakers are beginning to recognize the importance of addressing the growing challenges in global steel production. However, while this shift in mood is encouraging, Eggert emphasized that these positive words must be followed by tangible actions.

Rising Political Support for EU Steel Industry

Eggert pointed out that there is more political backing for the European steel sector, especially as lawmakers become increasingly aware of the massive overcapacity in global steel production, particularly CO2-intensive steel. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that global steel capacity will grow by 157 million tons over the next three years, which will likely negate the decarbonization efforts of the EU steel industry.

In response, the European Parliament has called for a European steel action plan, which has been embraced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. However, Eggert stressed that while these statements are promising, they must be followed by concrete measures to ensure the long-term sustainability of the industry.

Green Steel and Public Procurement as Key Measures

One of the critical measures that Eggert advocates for is the implementation of public procurement for green steel. With the EU's ambitious decarbonization targets — a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050 — Eggert emphasized that EU governments should lead by example. This means prioritizing green steel in public sector construction, vehicles, and other products, which would support European producers committed to decarbonizing their operations.

Global Overcapacity and Trade Distortions Impacting EU Steel

The steel industry crisis is largely driven by global overcapacity and low demand in Europe, exacerbated by high energy costs. Compounding this issue is the low-priced steel being exported by countries like China, Japan, and India, which depresses global markets. China’s exports, in particular, have been an issue for EU steel producers, as the country benefits from state subsidies, leading to significant trade distortions.

Eggert discussed how the EU has implemented anti-dumping measures on stainless steel from Indonesia, but Indonesia has circumvented these by exporting processed steel to third-party countries like Taiwan, Vietnam, and Turkey, which then re-export the products back to the EU. This tactic, along with the support from Chinese investments in Indonesia’s steel industry, has made Indonesia’s steel sector one of the largest globally.

EU Trade-Defense Measures: Need for Improvement

Eurofer has called for enhanced EU trade-defense measures to tackle issues such as dumping and excessive capacity from third countries. Eggert emphasized the need for improved steel safeguards and more effective enforcement of existing trade defense instruments. Currently, anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel are too low, undermining the efficacy of EU trade policies.

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Concerns

The EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) has been another point of contention. Third countries are already looking to export steel from their lowest CO2-emitting plants to avoid paying CBAM costs. Eggert advocated for including indirect CO2 emissions (Scope 2 emissions) in the CBAM, particularly for stainless steel, which is a major contributor to indirect emissions.

Scrap Export Concerns and India's Decarbonization Challenge

Finally, Eggert addressed concerns from India regarding the potential for a European export ban on scrap metal. While the EU does not currently have a scrap export ban, Eggert pointed out that India itself has export restrictions on scrap and needs to focus more on decarbonizing its domestic steel sector. He also warned that if India delays its decarbonization efforts until 2070, the EU will face a significant disadvantage in the global steel market.

Brazil Steel Market Faces Continued Pressure on Imports Amid Tariff Measures

Brazil steel market

Brazil's Government Tackles Rising Steel Imports

Brazil's steel industry is experiencing mounting pressure as the government considers further measures to curb steel imports, despite previous tariff and quota systems having limited impact on import volumes. In the latest development, Brazil's foreign trade committee, Gecex, tentatively approved the inclusion of additional steel products, such as wires and construction nails, in a tariff hike of 25%. This move follows a trend of rising steel imports that have been challenging the competitiveness of domestic producers.

Industry Reactions: Limited Tariff and Rising Antidumping Calls

Market participants were taken aback by the decision, as they had anticipated more substantial and widespread tariffs. According to one source, there was an expectation of a broader government intervention given the persistently high levels of imported steel. However, with the new measure, the decision did not specify a minimum volume to be taxed, leading to mixed reactions within the industry.

One notable shift in response to the government's actions is the growing preference for antidumping measures rather than broader tariff hikes. Steel producers argue that antidumping regulations are more effective in targeting specific products that disrupt the market, especially those imported at artificially low prices. Domestic manufacturers are reportedly increasingly inclined to pursue these measures as a more tailored approach to addressing the surge in cheap imports.

Support from Aço Brasil and Rising Concerns from Local Producers

Aço Brasil, the nation's steel industry association, expressed support for the 25% tariff, stating that it has long advocated for such a measure to protect the domestic market. Marco Polo de Mello Lopes, executive president of Aço Brasil, remarked that the industry had always supported this level of tariff and that the government’s approval would be in line with expectations.

This decision by Gecex follows a complaint from the national syndicate of ferrous metal drawing and rolling industries, Sicetel, which, with backing from Aço Brasil, argued that the influx of cheap imports was creating unfair competition. Sicetel reported that imports in the ferrous metal drawing and rolling sector rose by 24% in 2023, with China accounting for 57% of total imports during the first nine months of the year.

Ongoing Struggles and Future Outlook for Brazil’s Steel Industry

Despite the tariff increase and other protective measures, imports have continued to surge due to the significant price gap between foreign and domestic products. Market experts point out that the lack of a more balanced approach may continue to strain domestic steelmakers.

Gecex’s decision, however, still needs approval from members of the Mercosur trade bloc and publication in Brazil’s official gazette before it becomes final. In the meantime, the government continues to scrutinize the issue with additional antidumping investigations and reviews.

The situation reflects the ongoing struggle for Brazil's steel industry, balancing the need for protection against foreign competition while ensuring that measures do not excessively inflate costs for domestic consumers.

Global Steel Output Declines 4.7% in September

World Steel

Global crude steel output fell by 4.7% year-on-year in September, reaching 143.6 million tons (mn t), according to data from the World Steel Association (Worldsteel). The decline was largely driven by reduced production in China, which accounts for 62% of the world’s steel output.

China’s Steel Struggles

China’s steel production dropped 6% to 77mn t in September, primarily due to weak domestic demand and multi-year lows in steel prices at the beginning of the month. While government stimulus efforts helped improve prices and production later in the month, the sharp drop in the first week outweighed the recovery. Despite this, production in October is expected to rise as steel prices continue to recover.

India: Steady but Facing Oversupply

India, the second-largest steel producer, maintained steady output compared to the previous year, driven by robust domestic demand. The country contributed nearly 10% of global steel production in September. However, as Indian mills expand capacities, there is concern about potential oversupply, with domestic demand unlikely to absorb the increased output. The festive season may temporarily boost consumption in the coming months.

Japan and Iran See Significant Declines

• Japan: Steel output fell by 5.8%, marking the seventh consecutive monthly decline. This was attributed to contracting demand from the auto and construction sectors.
• Iran: The most significant drop globally occurred in Iran, where production plummeted by over 40%. Severe power shortages hindered operations throughout most of September, although production normalized in the final week.

Outlook for Global Steel

As China’s recovery and India’s growth remain pivotal to global steel dynamics, the market faces challenges from oversupply, fluctuating demand, and economic uncertainties. October’s performance will be closely watched as producers adapt to these evolving conditions.

China’s Steel Market Faces Persistent Challenges Despite Stimulus Measures

China’s Steel

Chinese steel prices experienced a modest rebound from multi-year lows in late September, spurred by a series of government stimulus policies. However, the steel market's long-term outlook remains uncertain due to sluggish domestic demand, weakening real estate investments, and global trade barriers.

Steel Prices Rebound, but Demand Stays Weak

Steel prices in China bottomed out in late September, with the People’s Bank of China reducing the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5% and lowering mortgage rates. Despite these measures, real estate investments for January-September declined by 10.1% year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The area of new construction projects dropped by 22.2% over the same period, underscoring a lack of recovery in demand.

Domestic steel demand remains heavily tied to new construction and infrastructure projects. However, China’s shift in focus toward existing housing rather than new builds has limited the effectiveness of stimulus policies.

Steel Production Increases Amidst Price Rebound

Chinese steel mills responded to the price recovery by ramping up production. Profits rebounded from losses of Yn150-200 per ton in early September to Yn200-250 per ton by early October. Weekly rebar output reached 2.4 million tons in mid-October, the highest since late June. Blast furnace and electric arc furnace operation rates also hit two-month highs during this period.

Despite increased production, market participants anticipate a dip in construction steel demand from mid-November as northern cities enter the winter heating season.

Steel Exports: A Mixed Bag

Chinese steel exports surged by 21.2% year-on-year in January-September, totaling 80.71 million tons. However, this growth is under threat from rising anti-dumping measures in countries such as Turkey, India, Vietnam, and South Korea. With major overseas markets slowing operations during the Christmas season, export bookings are expected to taper off in December.

Stimulus Measures: Limited Impact on Real Estate

China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) has announced significant fiscal measures, including a Yn1 trillion issuance of ultra-long special treasury bonds and an increased financial expenditure of Yn180 billion for 2024. Additionally, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MHURD) plans to rebuild 1 million apartments in shanty towns and dilapidated areas. However, these measures are relatively mild compared to the peak of 6 million units rebuilt annually from 2016 to 2018.

To further stimulate the housing market, most cities, except Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, have lifted purchase restrictions. Despite these efforts, the market remains constrained by long-term structural issues.

Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism

Shanghai hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices declined by Yn230 per ton (6.3%) from 7 October to Yn3,420 per ton as of yesterday. Market analysts suggest that while steel prices may not return to their September lows, downward pressure is likely in November and December.

As China continues to navigate economic headwinds, the steel sector’s recovery appears contingent on significant new investments and sustained domestic demand growth. The global context of anti-dumping measures and trade barriers adds another layer of complexity, potentially capping export growth prospects in the near term.

Eurofer Pushes for Anti-Dumping Investigation into Vietnamese and Indian HDG Imports

European steel association

As Europe grapples with a surge in metal imports, the European Steel Association, known as Eurofer, has urged the European Commission to launch an anti-dumping investigation into hot-dipped galvanized (HDG) steel imports from Vietnam and India. The association has not issued a public comment, but industry insiders have been anticipating a formal investigation, particularly regarding Vietnamese imports.

India’s HDG shipments to Europe are already constrained by quotas, with limits set below 55,000 tons for category 4A HDG and under 78,000 tons for 4B. While India’s 4A quota has been quickly exhausted in recent quarters, its 4B quota remains less affected, reflecting varied market demand.

Vietnam’s impact on the EU market is especially pronounced, with monthly HDG shipments averaging over 100,000 tons between January and July—a stark increase from approximately 60,000 tons per month in the previous year. Indian HDG imports similarly increased, averaging close to 70,000 tons per month over the same period, up from around 45,000 tons last year. Other nations, including Taiwan, South Korea, Tunisia, and notably China, continue to ramp up their exports to Europe. China already faces substantial anti-dumping duties, ranging from 17.2% to 27.9%, underscoring Europe’s effort to protect its domestic market from excess supply.

Parallel HRC Investigation Intensifies Safeguard Measures

The HDG situation mirrors the EU's ongoing investigation into hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports from several key suppliers. Initiated on August 8, this probe responds to heightened HRC import volumes despite safeguard quotas set at 15% per supplier. Since September 24, the Commission has registered all products imported from countries under anti-dumping or anti-subsidy scrutiny, enabling possible retroactive duties. Provisional measures for HRC imports are anticipated by March 8, signaling further moves to fortify Europe’s metal industry against the impacts of foreign supply surges.

This escalating focus on trade protections reflects Europe’s broader concerns about maintaining competitive balance as global supply chains expand into emerging markets.