China export VAT rebate cuts reshape solar PV and battery exports

China Solar

China export VAT rebate cuts will raise the effective cost of exporting solar PV and batteries. China export VAT rebate cuts start on 1 April and tighten again in 2027. As a result, exporters face a faster push toward pricing discipline and higher-value products.

China will withdraw the export VAT rebate for solar photovoltaic products from 1 April. China supplies most global solar PV exports, so buyers will feel the shift quickly. Therefore, the policy targets over-expansion and the harsh price war across the sector.

Solar PV exporters face an immediate margin reset

Solar PV exporters will lose a rebate tailwind overnight. Producers will either accept lower margins or lift export prices where contracts allow. Meanwhile, weaker players may accelerate shutdowns, mergers, or capacity delays.

The change also encourages differentiation in higher-efficiency cells and modules. Companies will likely prioritize premium segments and branded channels. However, low-end volume exports will become harder to justify.

Battery exports move into a two-step phaseout

Battery export VAT rebates will fall to 6pc from 9pc between 1 April and 31 December 2026. The rebate will disappear from 1 January 2027. As a result, battery makers may adjust product mix, contract terms, and overseas inventory strategy.

China dominates battery materials and power battery supply, so the policy touches global EV and storage chains. Beijing also widened its export licensing scope to include BEVs from 1 January. Meanwhile, regulators are signaling stricter rules to standardize competition across batteries.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This policy looks like an industrial reset, not a trade accident. It pressures excess capacity and forces a quality-led export model. However, the biggest impact will land on low-margin suppliers first.

Tungsten Market Faces Disruptions as China Imposes Export Controls on APT

Ammonium Paratungstate

The recent announcement by China to place ammonium para-tungstate (APT) and tungsten concentrate under strict export controls has sparked significant price increases in the European market. As buyers scramble to secure material, European consumers are seeking to build "safety stocks" to ensure supply continuity amid the uncertainty surrounding these export restrictions.

China's Export Controls Create Supply Chain Concerns

China's decision to add APT and tungsten concentrate to its list of dual-use items has left global tungsten buyers on edge. With this new regulation, Chinese suppliers have hesitated to provide fresh price quotes, waiting for clearer instructions and permits from the Chinese government. This delay in pricing is expected to persist for around 45 days, further exacerbating concerns in the tungsten market.

As the export controls limit available material, European and Japanese markets are expected to feel the greatest impact. While U.S. buyers primarily rely on tungsten scrap for their needs, prices for this resource are also expected to rise due to the overall global tightness in tungsten supply. European buyers are particularly active in sourcing material outside of China, not due to increased demand, but to secure stock ahead of anticipated supply disruptions.

Verification of End-Use Creates Delays and Bottlenecks

The new export regulations require Chinese exporters to notify authorities of the final end-user and application of the tungsten products, adding another layer of complexity to the supply chain. The verification process, which ensures that the material isn't being used for military purposes, is expected to create significant delays. With approximately 70% of Japan's tungsten imports coming from China, these controls are likely to disrupt the Japanese market the most. The European Union also faces similar challenges, with imports from China making up a substantial portion of its tungstate needs.

Impact on Global Markets and Price Forecasts

While the Chinese export restrictions are expected to drive prices up, particularly in Europe and Japan, the full impact remains uncertain. Tungsten is crucial for a variety of industrial applications, with APT serving as the intermediate material for producing tungsten oxides and powders. However, with limited available stock and supply chain disruptions, some market participants worry that the price increases could become more drastic.

The situation has drawn comparisons to China's antimony export delays, which have significantly disrupted the European market and caused prices to surge. The tungsten market may face similar challenges as supply becomes even more constrained, with both APT and tungsten concentrate prices continuing to climb.

Conclusion: A Fragile Market with Rising Prices

As the global tungsten market grapples with China's export controls, prices for APT and tungsten concentrates are likely to remain volatile. The duration and enforcement of these new controls will determine the severity of the price hikes, and the market will need time to adjust to the changing dynamics. With Europe and Japan facing the most significant challenges, the tungsten supply chain will need to adapt to avoid further disruption.

Bushveld Mineral

South African Output Cuts to Boost China's Vanadium-Nitrogen Exports

Rising Exports Driven by Lower South African Production and Strong US Demand

China’s vanadium-nitrogen exports are expected to see significant growth in 2025, primarily due to output cuts from a major South African producer, increasing demand from the US, and strong export interest from Chinese producers. Market participants anticipate a boost in global vanadium-nitrogen trade, benefiting China’s export numbers.

Impact of South African Output Cuts on Global Vanadium-Nitrogen Supply

South African vanadium-nitrogen production has been notably impacted by ongoing equipment maintenance at Bushveld Minerals Vametco plant. From mid-December to March 2025, the plant will operate at reduced capacity due to a cash shortage. In 2024, Bushveld’s production fell by 19%, amounting to 1,387 tonnes. This reduction in South African output is expected to continue in 2025, with the producer operating at low run rates due to negative profit margins. Consequently, China is positioned to capitalize on these cuts by increasing its exports.

Global vanadium-nitrogen alloy production is heavily concentrated in China and South Africa, with other countries lacking the necessary technology due to intellectual property restrictions. While European and US steel mills often prefer using ferro-vanadium (80% grade) over vanadium-nitrogen, China’s export increase in vanadium-nitrogen reflects changing dynamics in the alloy market.

Surge in China’s Vanadium-Nitrogen Exports and US Market Demand

China’s vanadium-nitrogen exports more than doubled in 2024, reaching 2,523 tonnes, up from 945 tonnes in 2023. This growth can be attributed to South Africa’s lower output and China’s expanded export activities. Notably, in December 2024, China’s vanadium-nitrogen exports surged five-fold to 377 tonnes, compared to just 67 tonnes a year earlier.

The US was the largest buyer of Chinese vanadium-nitrogen in 2024, importing 892 tonnes, more than double the 335 tonnes purchased in 2023. Canada also saw a dramatic increase in imports, with 323 tonnes imported, a more than five-fold rise from 60 tonnes in 2023. India’s demand also increased by 69%, reaching 317 tonnes in 2024. The US demand for vanadium-nitrogen is expected to continue to rise, as the US government, under President Trump, has pledged to boost domestic construction activities, which will likely increase the demand for steel alloys.

Export Prices and Market Dynamics

Chinese export prices for vanadium-nitrogen are currently in the range of $20.30 to $21 per kilogram, lower than European prices of $23.80 to $24.20 per kilogram. Chinese smelters are more inclined to sell to overseas markets to address domestic oversupply issues. In 2024, China produced 41,500 tonnes of vanadium-nitrogen, surpassing domestic steel mills' consumption of 34,800 tonnes. However, some alloy smelters reduced production from 2023 levels due to negative profit margins and weaker steel demand.

China Expands Export Controls on Critical Minerals Amid Trade Tensions

China Critical Minerals

New Restrictions on Tungsten, Indium, and Other Critical Metals

China has intensified its trade strategies by imposing new export controls on additional critical minerals. This move is seen as a countermeasure against higher tariffs recently imposed by the United States. The newly restricted materials include various metals and compounds of tungsten, indium, tellurium, bismuth, and molybdenum. The export restrictions came into effect on February 4, as announced by China’s Ministry of Commerce.

Impact on Global Supply Chains

This expansion of export controls follows the introduction of similar measures in 2023-24, which included key materials such as gallium, germanium, graphite, and antimony. With the recent addition, the scope now covers more crucial metals used in various industries globally. According to industry estimates, China holds a dominant share of the global supply for metals like tungsten and bismuth. For instance, it is the world’s largest producer and exporter of tungsten, controlling nearly 80% of the global market. Similarly, China is responsible for 70-80% of the world's bismuth supply, which further underscores its influential role in the global supply chain.

The new export controls will allow China greater flexibility in deciding which countries can receive these critical minerals. Market participants have indicated that the export restrictions could drive up global prices, especially for tungsten and bismuth, due to China's near-monopoly on these materials. This is likely to cause disruptions for industries that rely heavily on these metals, from electronics to energy production.

Global Repercussions and Market Shifts

The broader implications of these controls may be felt across various sectors. As China continues to tighten its grip on critical mineral exports, consumers outside of China will face challenges in securing alternative sources of supply. However, some experts suggest that this move might spur increased investments in local production capabilities in non-China markets, as countries seek to reduce their dependence on Chinese supplies.

In the short term, global markets will likely experience higher prices for the affected minerals, particularly as exporters must follow a stringent verification process before shipping these critical materials. The procedural delays and uncertainty about permitted shipments will add to the volatility of the market.

Conclusion: Strategic Maneuver in Global Trade

China's latest export controls reflect a growing trend of resource nationalism, where nations leverage their dominance in critical industries to secure economic and political advantages. These measures come amidst heightened trade tensions, particularly with the United States, and are designed to protect China’s national security and economic interests. As the global demand for these minerals continues to rise, China’s role in the critical metals supply chain remains pivotal, making it essential for businesses worldwide to monitor these developments closely.

China Imposes Export Controls on Heavy Rare Earths in Retaliation to US Tariffs

China Rare Earths

New Legislation Strengthens Dual-Use Item Export Control Scheme

In a move likely aimed at countering US President Donald Trump’s recent tariffs, China has extended its export control measures to cover several medium and heavy rare earths. The new controls, announced on April 4, target elements such as samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium. These minerals are critical in various high-tech and defense applications, and their export restrictions will likely have significant geopolitical and market implications.

China’s Dual-Use Export Control Scheme

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce emphasized that the materials affected by these new controls possess "dual-use" properties, which means they can be used for both civilian and military applications. Export controls on such items are considered a standard international practice. This move aligns with China’s enhanced dual-use item management scheme, which was bolstered by new legislation passed in October 2023. The new regulations require exporters to submit detailed documents confirming the end-user and the intended use of the items. Should the end-user or the intended use change, exporters are required to halt the shipment immediately.

While the export control scheme is part of a broader effort to regulate strategic materials, it has been widely viewed as a retaliatory response to the US’s 34% reciprocal tariffs, announced on April 2. In recent years, China has also placed export controls on other critical minerals like gallium, germanium, and graphite, in response to escalating tensions with the US and Western nations.

Strategic Implications and Market Reactions

China is a dominant player in the global rare earth market, accounting for over 90% of global supplies. The country’s total shipments of rare earths dropped by 3% in January-February 2024, compared to the same period the previous year, according to customs data. The US, recognizing its dependence on China for these materials, has taken steps to boost domestic production and diversify its supply sources, including funding initiatives in countries like Greenland, which has significant rare earth reserves.

Most market participants previously expected China to hold back on using rare earths as a "last card" in the trade war due to the strategic importance of these materials in many high-tech applications. However, China’s decision to implement these export controls highlights its readiness to leverage its position in the rare earth market. This policy shift is expected to further strain the rare earth supply chain and could result in higher prices for materials such as antimony and bismuth, which have already seen price surges following previous export restrictions.

China’s TiO2 Capacity Utilization Set to Fall in 2025 Amid Sluggish Demand and Export Pressures

China's Titanium Dioxide

China, the world's leading producer of titanium dioxide (TiO2), is set to experience a fall in capacity utilization rates by 2025. This decline is attributed to an expected rise in production capacity, muted demand from downstream sectors, and mounting export pressure. According to market estimates, China’s TiO2 capacity utilization is projected to decrease by 2 percentage points, reaching 68% in 2025 from 2024’s 70%.

Capacity Expansions and Production Growth

In 2024, China will continue its expansion of TiO2 production capacity with several new facilities coming online. Companies like Pangang, Inner Mongolia Guocheng, Fujian Kuncai, and Guangdong Huiyun are set to add a combined 700,000 tons per year (t/yr) of new capacity. This expansion will increase the total production capacity from 5.87 million t/yr in 2023 to 6.57 million t/yr by the end of 2024.

In 2025, further expansions will continue. Shandong Jinhai, Sichuan Yibin Tianyuan, and Shandong Xianghai Titanium Resources Technology are among the companies investing in additional capacity. These new projects will add at least 360,000 t/yr of TiO2 capacity, bringing China's dominance in the global market even higher. Despite these investments, the rising supply could outpace domestic demand.

Muted Domestic Demand

The domestic demand for TiO2, particularly from the painting industry—China's largest consumer of TiO2—has been weakening in recent years. The painting sector accounts for approximately 60% of China's TiO2 consumption, with architectural coatings being the largest segment. However, the slowdown in China’s real estate industry, which directly affects the demand for architectural coatings, is contributing to a reduction in TiO2 consumption.

China’s real estate sector has faced substantial challenges since 2022, with significant declines in investment and completed residential areas. As a result, TiO2 demand from this sector is expected to remain sluggish, further pressuring the TiO2 market in the coming years.

Export Pressure and Trade Restrictions

China’s TiO2 exports have been increasing, with a marked rise in 2023, which accounted for 39.5% of the country’s total production. However, this surge in exports has led to anti-dumping investigations in multiple regions, including the European Union, India, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia. The European Union, in particular, has imposed final anti-dumping duties on Chinese TiO2 imports, which will take effect from January 2025.

These trade restrictions could impact the international demand for Chinese TiO2, as countries with ongoing anti-dumping measures are likely to see a reduction in TiO2 imports from China. Meanwhile, competitors in other countries, such as Tronox, are recovering from low utilization rates and are expected to increase their production, potentially reducing China’s share in the global TiO2 market.

Outlook for 2025 and Beyond

The overall outlook for China’s TiO2 market in 2025 is uncertain. While capacity expansions will continue, weak domestic demand and export restrictions will likely make it challenging for the country to sustain the high output levels seen in previous years. Market participants predict that the growth in output will slow down, and capacity utilization rates will continue to decline as China faces both domestic and international pressures.

As China grapples with a combination of weaker demand and export constraints, it is expected that the TiO2 industry will have to adjust to a new normal of reduced growth in 2025.

Japan tungsten recycling expansion accelerates after China export controls

the International Tungsten Industry Association(ITIA)

Japan tungsten recycling expansion is now central to the country’s response to China’s new export controls. Japan has no domestic tungsten mines and historically relied on Chinese APT and cemented carbide imports. As a result, Japan tungsten recycling expansion is becoming the primary lever to secure supply and stabilise its hard-metal value chain. Japan tungsten recycling expansion also reflects a broader shift toward circularity and strategic raw material resilience.

Scrap flows highlight the scale of Japan tungsten recycling expansion

Japan is ramping tungsten scrap utilisation to compensate for lower Chinese export volumes. The country generates 3,500–4,000t of tungsten scrap annually, with about half recycled domestically and half exported. However, Japan also imports 500–1,000t of scrap each year, underscoring its dependence on global recycling networks.

China’s export controls on APT and cemented carbide have sharply reduced shipments into Japan. No other producing country has fully offset this loss, creating a structural shortfall in virgin tungsten materials. Therefore, Japanese industry is pushing harder to capture and process scrap from cutting tools and hard-metal components.

Scrap exports to overseas processors have also surged as part of this adjustment. From April to June, Japan exported 865t of tungsten scrap, double the previous quarter. Much of this material goes to the US, Germany and Taiwan for conversion into tungsten carbide powder. Meanwhile, limited domestic processing capacity means Japan must then reimport refined powders or finished tools.

Japan lacks tungsten recycling capacity comparable to leading manufacturing countries such as Germany. Market participants agree that higher prices and strong scrap demand create a window to invest in domestic plants. Companies like Mitsubishi Materials and Sumitomo Group are intensifying recycling efforts, but significant capacity additions will take time to materialise.

Strategic impact of Japan tungsten recycling expansion on supply security

Japan tungsten recycling expansion carries important strategic implications beyond near-term supply balancing. By strengthening domestic scrap processing, Japan can reduce exposure to Chinese export policies over the medium term. At the same time, enhanced recycling supports national goals on circular economy and lower carbon metal supply.

Industry leaders emphasise that Japan still needs a framework for constructive cooperation with China. However, they also stress that recycling will play a growing role in any long-term procurement strategy. As a result, Japan tungsten recycling expansion is viewed as both a defensive and forward-looking move. It protects critical industries today while aligning with future ESG requirements.

Higher tungsten prices and constrained primary supply should continue to incentivise investment in collection, sorting and processing infrastructure. Tool manufacturers and end-users will likely see tighter take-back schemes and more advanced recycling logistics. In five to ten years, today’s disruption may be remembered as the catalyst that forced Japan to build a more robust, diversified tungsten procurement system.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Japan’s response to China’s tungsten export controls shows how quickly advanced manufacturing economies can pivot toward recycling when supply shocks hit. If current investment momentum holds, Japan could evolve from a largely import-dependent buyer into a more balanced scrap-and-powder hub. Market participants should watch where new recycling plants are sited and how quickly domestic processing capacity closes the gap with Germany and other leaders.

China Rare Earth Export Controls Tighten Global Tech Flows

China Rare Earth

China rare earth export controls just tightened across mining, processing, magnets, and recycling. The China rare earth export controls require prior approval for technology transfers and technical services. As a result, the China rare earth export controls reshape risks for EVs, wind turbines, and defense supply chains.

What the rules cover

Beijing now restricts technology for mining, smelting and separation, and metal smelting. The rules also cover magnetic material manufacturing and secondary rare earth recycling. Authorities named samarium-cobalt, neodymium-iron-boron, and cerium magnet technologies. The measures include assembly, commissioning, maintenance, and upgrade services. Chinese entities also need approval before assisting foreign rare earth activities. Violations face penalties under the new regime.

Global impacts and industry response

The policy targets unauthorized tech transfer and national security risks. China previously limited exports of several medium and heavy rare earths. The latest move extends controls to know-how and services. Market participants expect stricter IP protection and slower overseas projects. Meanwhile, the US and allies keep building non-China supply chains. However, technology remains the key bottleneck outside China. China holds major reserves and advanced processing capabilities. That gap will challenge rapid diversification efforts.

China rare earth export controls may raise compliance costs for JVs. They could delay new NdFeB magnet lines outside China. Companies will likely pivot toward recycling and substitution. As a result, buyers may sign longer contracts with diversified suppliers. Governments may expand funding for separation and metals plants. Price volatility could rise if inventories tighten into 2026.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China just shifted leverage from material tons to proprietary process IP. Expect accelerated Western investments in separation, metalmaking, and magnet plants, plus stricter trade compliance. Winners will pair secure ore with in-house processing know-how and robust recycling.

China Rare Earth Export Restrictions Disrupt Global Supply and Spur Price Volatility

China Rare Earth

Tightening China rare earth export restrictions are reshaping global supply chains as Chinese exporters suspend offers and overseas buyers scramble to secure inventory. The new regulations, imposed in early April, target seven medium and heavy rare earth elements critical to advanced electronics and defense systems.

Export Uncertainty Freezes Market Activity

China's customs agency is conducting a 45-day investigation into the export of dysprosium, terbium, gadolinium, lutetium, samarium, and yttrium. As a result, many Chinese suppliers have halted offers entirely, citing uncertainty around permit approvals. While some export offers were made at a 20–30% premium over domestic prices, most exporters chose to prioritize long-term relationships rather than exploit short-term price spikes.

This uncertainty has triggered a rush by overseas buyers to secure rare earth materials from non-China inventories. However, spot market activity remains subdued due to elevated pricing and unclear timelines on permit outcomes.

South Korea Ramps Up Imports Amid U.S. Tensions

South Korean firms—including Samsung, LG, and Hynix—have been warned against re-exporting rare earth-containing products to U.S. military end-users. This has raised concerns of even stricter oversight by Beijing, particularly around transshipments that may indirectly support U.S. defense supply chains.

Despite the warnings, South Korea has dramatically increased its rare earth imports from China. In Q1 2025, dysprosium oxide imports reached 17 tonnes, up from just 1.2 tonnes a year earlier, making South Korea the top importer. Terbium oxide imports also climbed to 2.8 tonnes, positioning the country as China's second-largest buyer after Japan.

Strategic Stockpiling Reflects Long-Term Risk

The surge in South Korean purchases appears to exceed immediate demand, suggesting a strategic stockpiling effort ahead of further supply restrictions. Meanwhile, overseas suppliers with inventory outside China are raising prices to capitalize on the constrained supply environment.

In 2024, China exported 150 tonnes of dysprosium oxide and 91 tonnes of terbium oxide globally, with Japan and South Korea accounting for the majority. The shifting trade flows underscore the geopolitical sensitivity of the rare earth market and the risks posed by regulatory fragmentation.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The China rare earth export restrictions are a strategic inflection point for global rare earth supply chains. While buyers scramble to manage short-term disruptions, the long-term signal is clear: diversification, transparency, and geopolitical alignment are now essential in securing access to critical minerals.

Europe Yttrium Oxide Prices Surge on China Export Controls

Yttrium Oxide

Europe yttrium oxide prices have surged as export controls from China choke heavy rare earth supply and tighten available spot units. Europe yttrium oxide prices jumped again this week, with buyers forced to pay sharply higher levels for scarce cargoes into the Atlantic market. However, prices for other rare earth products in Europe moved only slightly, reflecting more balanced conditions in the neodymium and praseodymium complex. Europe yttrium oxide prices now highlight how vulnerable regional supply chains remain to policy shifts in China’s rare earth sector.

Yttrium Shortage Exposes Heavy Rare Earth Risk

The latest rally in Europe yttrium oxide prices stems from an acute supply shortage outside China as export licences remain constrained. Assessments for 99.999pc yttrium oxide rose sharply to $150-200/kg cif Europe, up strongly from last week’s range. Some market participants report even higher Europe yttrium oxide prices above $200/kg in isolated critical-need spot deals, although volumes are limited. However, overall spot liquidity is thin as many enquiries for yttrium oxide and yttrium metal go unfilled because suppliers cannot secure material. Traders continue to struggle with Chinese export licences for restricted heavy rare earth products, with applications facing close scrutiny and long delays. In the absence of fresh stock, European buyers must rely on existing inventories, making a near-term correction in yttrium prices unlikely. Other heavy rare earths, including dysprosium and terbium oxides, remain price-stable but still trade at elevated levels by historical standards.

Light and Heavy Rare Earths Diverge Across Europe

Light rare earths tell a different story, with sentiment turning slightly more bearish in China on supply and demand shifts. Neodymium and praseodymium prices softened as Chinese magnet plants slowed restocking and ore availability increased under the second 2025 mining quota. This weaker tone has filtered into Europe, trimming delivered prices for certain neodymium and praseodymium oxide and metal products. Even so, spreads between oxide and metal remain steady, reflecting solid but not overheated demand from key magnet applications. Erbium oxide prices in Europe held steady but sit well above equivalent Chinese levels amid ongoing export and customs frictions. Fresh erbium shipments continue to face port delays in China as authorities check impurities and trace restricted heavy rare earths. These checks add friction to international trade flows and reinforce the premium that European buyers must pay for secure supply. As a result, buyers and traders are reassessing sourcing strategies, inventory policies and long-term contracts to manage future rare earth disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s yttrium spike is a textbook example of how targeted export controls can weaponise narrow heavy rare earth supply chains. For end-users, the lesson is clear: diversify heavy rare earth sourcing, lock in strategic contracts and build working inventories before the next policy shock. For project developers, today’s prices strengthen the case for non-Chinese heavy rare earth capacity, but investors will demand durable policy visibility and long-term demand signals.

China’s policies are reshaping the global tungsten market

International Tungsten Industry Association

China’s tightening controls are fundamentally reshaping the global tungsten market and forcing buyers to rethink supply strategies. The global tungsten market now faces record prices, acute shortages outside China and rising geopolitical risk. As a result, investors and consumers across the global tungsten market are reassessing where to source and where to deploy capital.

China’s export controls on ammonium paratungstate (APT) and tungsten trioxide have sharply reduced export availability. At the same time, China’s surging appetite for tungsten concentrates has deepened shortages in Europe and other consuming regions. Therefore, tungsten prices have climbed to record levels in both APT and concentrate markets.

Meanwhile, import data show that China has become an aggressive buyer of concentrates, with first-half 2025 imports up 75pc year on year. This shift has pushed European and Japanese buyers to pursue alternative strategies, including buying concentrates instead of APT and intensifying recycling and non-Chinese partnerships.

Supply shock exposes vulnerabilities in the global tungsten market

China accounts for roughly 80pc of global APT supply and is now exporting far less material. Since Beijing expanded its export licence regime in February, APT exports dropped by 42pc in January-June 2025 versus a year earlier. Similarly, exports of tungsten trioxide fell by 76pc, leaving European consumers scrambling for units.

As a result, European APT prices have surged to fresh highs of $580–645/mtu duty unpaid Rotterdam. This represents a roughly 20pc increase since the start of the year and a jump from $550–600/mtu only days earlier. European tungsten concentrate prices have followed, rising to $500–520/dmtu in-warehouse Rotterdam, up nearly 30pc year on year.

Consequently, downstream consumers and midstream processors are re-engineering their sourcing models. Buyers are shifting from APT to concentrates where possible and are strengthening ties with alternative suppliers such as Vietnam. Meanwhile, Japanese buyers are boosting recycling rates and deepening co-operation with smelters in Germany and the US to reduce exposure to China.

However, traders find themselves squeezed as limited material flows directly to end users. Many trading houses are sidelined in spot activity and instead look to position themselves with long-term strategies and optionality. This structural shift underlines how fragile and concentrated current tungsten supply chains remain.

Uncertain outlook complicates investment in non-Chinese tungsten projects

On paper, today’s high prices and tightness strongly support new western tungsten projects. Yet equity and debt investors remain wary about whether current conditions in the global tungsten market are durable. Many tungsten mining projects are years from production, and investors fear that a shift in Chinese policy could quickly loosen fundamentals.

Geopolitics further clouds the investment case. The evolving US-China trade conflict and Europe’s position “in the middle” both influence tungsten flows but do not offer clear long-term signals. The US is accelerating efforts to secure domestic supply and support new mines, while Europe is also expected to attract investment as it seeks strategic autonomy. Still, long-term policy direction remains uncertain.

At the same time, Chinese producers stress that tightness reflects genuine domestic demand, not a short-term export tactic. China’s industrial strategy has moved from low-cost manufacturing toward high-value sectors such as photovoltaics. Forecasts suggest tungsten-wire demand from the PV sector could grow 40–50pc annually over the next five years, requiring around 8,000t of tungsten by 2027.

Therefore, it appears unlikely that China will import large volumes of concentrates only to flood European markets later. While China clearly has the ability to do so, conference participants see that scenario as implausible given the strength of its internal consumption. For now, the base case is high but stabilising prices, with the next few months likely to shape long-term procurement and investment decisions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s gradual pivot from “world’s tungsten factory” to voracious downstream consumer is forcing a structural repricing of risk. For miners and financiers outside China, the challenge is to move before the window closes, yet not overbuild into a market still governed by Beijing’s policy choices. Buyers who secure diversified, traceable tungsten supply now may find that this period of pain ultimately buys them strategic resilience.

Australia's Export Revenues from Iron Ore and Metallurgical Coal Projected to Decline in FY2025

Australia's export revenues from iron ore and metallurgical coal are forecasted to decline significantly in FY2025 due to a general decrease in international prices, despite increased port inventories in China and rising demand from emerging markets.

The Australian Department of Industry, Science, and Resources recently released its "Q3 2024 Resources and Energy Report," predicting that export prices for iron ore will fall to $96 per ton in 2024, $84 per ton in 2025, and $77 per ton in 2026.

For the fiscal year 2025 (April 2024 - March 2025), Australia's iron ore export revenues are expected to drop by 17.4% from AUD 138 billion in the previous year to AUD 114 billion. Further decline is anticipated in FY2026 (April 2025 - March 2026) with revenues projected to be AUD 102 billion.

Earlier reports had estimated FY2025 iron ore export revenues to be AUD 107 billion. However, improved economic indicators from China, Australia's largest export market, have led to increased port inventories and improved market sentiment, prompting a revision of the forecasts.

Nonetheless, recent price declines pose challenges. Iron ore prices fell by $7-10 per ton in June compared to the previous month. As of June 28, iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 819 yuan per ton ($112.7 per ton), while on the Singapore Exchange it was $105.65 per ton.

The price drop is attributed to weakening steel demand in China during the off-season and increased port inventories. The most significant negative factor in the international iron ore market is the excess supply of iron ore not absorbed by China's existing demand.

Contrary to the Australian government's projections, HSBC Holdings, a British multinational commercial bank, anticipates that international iron ore prices will reach $100 per ton in 2024. The bank believes that strong demand from emerging markets will prevent a significant price drop despite China's real estate crisis.

Capital Economics, a British economic research firm, predicts that iron ore prices will fluctuate between $99 and $100 per ton this year. The firm forecasts prices at $100 per ton in Q2 and Q4, and $99 per ton in Q3, with a drop to $85 per ton by the end of next year. The firm attributes the expected decline to prolonged recessions in major economies and weak global steel demand.

For FY2025, metallurgical coal export revenues are projected to fall by 31.1% from AUD 61 billion in the previous year to AUD 42 billion.

While Australia's production of metallurgical coal is expected to increase during this period, the decline in export prices will likely reduce export revenues. Metallurgical coal export prices are anticipated to drop from $264 per ton in 2024 to $228 per ton in 2025, and further to $208 per ton in 2026.

The Australian government and mining industry forecast that reduced demand from China, the largest importer, along with adverse weather conditions such as La Niña, could negatively impact production. However, they do not foresee the price decline triggering a crisis for Australian mining companies.

EU presses China on critical mineral export licences as gallium, germanium and antimony supplies tighten

EU & China

EU presses China on critical mineral export licences as European stocks of key materials shrink. Officials raised the issue at the Antimony Day industry event in Brussels. EU presses China on critical mineral export licences to stabilise supply for industry and defence. Therefore, the dispute is moving from trade friction to strategic risk.

China began restricting gallium and germanium exports in August 2023. It then added antimony controls in September 2024. Companies must request licences from China’s commerce ministry and disclose end-use details. However, businesses say the process can require sensitive information.

China’s exports have dropped since controls began. China exported 7,520kg of germanium in January–September, down 71% versus 25,764kg in the same period of 2022. Meanwhile, European inventories have dwindled across key users. As a result, EU presses China on critical mineral export licences to reduce near-term disruption.

Defence and high-tech supply chains face the sharpest exposure

Gallium and germanium compounds support advanced defence technologies. They also enable high-frequency communications and threat-detection systems. Meanwhile, antimony links to flame retardants, alloys, and specialised applications. Therefore, supply shortages create direct industrial security concerns.

European Commission trade deputy director-general Denis Redonnet said the EU is asking China to “recalibrate” measures. He said the EU views the controls as a long-term industrial strategy. However, he said the EU is not yet at the countermeasure stage. Therefore, Brussels is signalling escalation risk while keeping diplomacy open.

EU considers countermeasures and accelerates stockpiling alliances

EU officials said countermeasures remain possible if disruptions worsen. They said any response will focus on immediate damage control and long-term resilience. Meanwhile, Europe’s decision-making spans trade, industry, energy, and diplomacy. As a result, action can move slower than in more centralised systems.

European Policy Centre chief executive Fabian Zuleeg said member states retain significant influence. The EU is also working with like-minded partners beyond the bloc. Therefore, joint purchasing, stockpiling, and alliances with mining countries are rising priorities.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Export licensing has become a strategic lever, not a simple trade tool. Meanwhile, Europe will need faster stockpiling and qualification of alternative sources. Therefore, buyers should contract diversified supply and build audited inventories for 2026–2027.

China Expands Copper and Aluminium Duty Exemptions for 2025

Recycled Copper

In a bid to promote sustainable growth, China has announced expanded import duty exemptions on recycled copper and aluminium feedstocks for 2025. This change is part of the country’s broader strategy to bolster green and low-carbon development in its metal industries. The move reflects China’s ongoing efforts to ease restrictions on secondary copper and aluminium imports, which could have significant implications for both domestic and international markets.

Expansion of Duty Exemptions

Under the new policy, China will expand the HS code 74040000 to include “recycled copper and alloy feedstock” for 2025, up from just "recycled brass copper feedstock" and "recycled copper feedstock" in 2024. Similarly, the HS code 76020000 will also broaden to cover “recycled aluminium and alloy feedstock” from the previous scope of "recycled cast aluminum alloy feedstock" in 2024. The import duties for both categories will remain at zero for 2025, continuing the exemptions in place for 2024.

This expansion is intended to enhance the country’s circular economy and support the shift toward greener practices in the recycling and processing of metals. According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, the adjustments will help promote low-carbon development, driving demand for sustainable production methods.

The move follows an increase in China’s copper scrap imports, which saw a 14% rise from January to November in 2024 compared to the previous year, signaling a positive trend for the country's metal recycling sector.

Continued Duties on Other Base Metals

While China is easing import duties on certain recycled metals, the government has decided to keep export duties on various base metals, minor metals, ferro-alloys, and rare earths in place for 2025. This includes maintaining the 40% export duty on ferro-chrome, a 25% duty on silico-manganese and ferro-silicon, and a 20% export duty on ferro-manganese. These duties align with China’s broader objective of controlling the export of energy-intensive and pollution-heavy products.

The country will also continue with export duties on a variety of concentrates, such as lead, zinc, tantalum, and niobium, as well as a 20% duty on tin, tungsten, and antimony concentrates, which are less frequently exported due to China’s limited domestic resources of these metals. Additionally, China will maintain duties on several metals, including a 5-15% export duty on copper, nickel, and zinc alloys and products.

China's new policy also includes a zero import duty on spodumene for 2025, marking another significant move in its strategic approach to securing key raw materials for its growing battery and electronics industries.

EU Tungsten Prices Surge Amid Tight Supply and China Export Controls

EU Tungsten Scrap

Export Restrictions and Low Inventories Drive Up Tungsten Prices in Europe

European tungsten prices have surged to multi-year highs due to restricted supply, dwindling inventories, and newly imposed Chinese export controls. The Focus Keyphrase "EU tungsten prices" has gained attention from global buyers navigating a market reshaped by policy shifts and geopolitical uncertainty.

European tungsten concentrate prices are now $310–320/dmtu in Rotterdam warehouses, up from $260–270/dmtu in early January — the highest level since the index’s launch in 2017. This price rally stems from low inventories and tightening global supply, particularly as China has lowered its tungsten mining quota and extended export licensing to include more products.

Western Buyers Lock in Long-Term Contracts Amid Risk

Western buyers are responding to this supply disruption by securing multi-year offtake deals. According to Australia-based producer EQ Resources, these contracts often include large prepayments to hedge against delays in Chinese export licence approvals.

Meanwhile, the defense sector's growing demand for tungsten is driving further contract activity. Almonty Industries, for instance, has signed a multi-year agreement to supply tungsten oxide to U.S.-based TPW for military applications. These agreements underscore the metal's strategic importance and the urgency among buyers to secure long-term supply.

However, some traders question how long the upward momentum can last. While markets like Vietnam remain willing to pay premium prices, others find current rates difficult to accept.

APT Prices Rise as Chinese Controls Disrupt Market

The price of ammonium paratungstate (APT), a key tungsten intermediate, has also spiked. European APT prices now range between $395–405/dmtu, a 20% increase since January and the highest since 2013. China’s restrictions have further worsened European availability, leading to extremely low warehouse stock levels.

As a workaround, some buyers have started importing ammonium tungstate (ATM), which is not currently subject to export controls. Although ATM cannot be converted into oxide, it is usable in limited applications. Industry sources caution that ATM could be restricted if the trade environment worsens.

Adding to the cost pressure, concentrate payables have jumped to 80–85% of APT price, up from the typical 70%, reflecting the sharp increase in feedstock costs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EU tungsten prices are being reshaped not just by market forces, but by geopolitics. With China tightening control over its critical minerals, Western buyers are being pushed into a new era of strategic procurement. As APT and concentrate prices continue to climb, Europe’s reliance on Chinese tungsten remains a vulnerability — one that may prompt diversification strategies and renewed investment in local supply chains.

China Tungsten Exports Resume in Europe with Limited Volumes

China Tungsten

China tungsten exports restarted in European markets for the first time since February stoppages, though shipment volumes remain constrained at maximum 1 tonne per delivery. The resumption of China tungsten exports follows months of supply disruption caused by Chinese export controls announced February 4th, creating acute shortages for US and European buyers dependent on tungsten ingots for defense and industrial applications.

Small-Scale Shipments Signal Cautious Market Re-entry

China tungsten exports currently originate primarily from smaller state-owned manufacturers rather than major producers. Market sources report receiving new shipments in Rotterdam while additional material remains in transit to European destinations. However, volumes stay extremely limited compared to pre-control periods, reflecting continued regulatory uncertainty and cautious export policies from Chinese suppliers.

Meanwhile, delivery timelines extend significantly with current orders potentially shipping in July for immediate purchases. Traders quote current prices at $56 per kilogram on a cost-insurance-freight basis, representing substantial increases from historical levels. The extended lead times demonstrate supply chain disruptions that persist despite the resumption of limited export activities.

Export Controls Create Ongoing Market Uncertainty

However, tungsten metal products face complex regulatory environments despite not appearing on initial dual-use licensing lists. While other tungsten products required explicit export licenses from February 4th, tungsten ingots experienced de facto export halts through administrative restrictions. This regulatory ambiguity creates persistent uncertainty for international buyers seeking reliable supply sources.

Therefore, US and European buyers continue struggling to secure sufficient alternative tungsten sources outside Chinese production. The global tungsten market's dependence on Chinese suppliers becomes evident through months of supply shortages following export control implementation. Alternative sourcing efforts prove inadequate for meeting industrial demand requirements across defense and manufacturing sectors.

Tight European Market Maintains Price Pressure

Furthermore, European tungsten markets remain extremely tight with minimal warehouse inventory available for immediate delivery. Limited stock levels mean small resumptions in Chinese exports cannot immediately relieve price pressures or supply constraints. Market participants describe conditions as "total lottery" scenarios where securing tungsten ingots depends largely on timing and supplier relationships.

As a result, prompt tungsten prices maintain elevated levels despite the resumption of small-scale Chinese shipments. The constrained supply environment supports premium pricing while buyers compete for limited available material. Industrial consumers face continued procurement challenges that affect production planning and cost structures across tungsten-dependent manufacturing sectors.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China's limited tungsten export resumption highlights the persistent vulnerability of global supply chains dependent on single-source suppliers for critical materials, particularly when geopolitical tensions influence trade policies. The constrained volumes and regulatory uncertainty demonstrate how export controls can fundamentally reshape commodity markets, forcing Western buyers to reassess supply security strategies for defense-critical materials like tungsten.

China titanium sponge market 2026 faces pressure from capacity surplus and export controls

China Titanium Sponge

China titanium sponge market 2026 will face renewed pricing and margin pressure as capacity keeps rising. China titanium sponge market 2026 will also feel weaker chemical demand and tighter export channels. Therefore, titanium sponge capacity surplus could widen even if output growth slows.

China is set to lift titanium sponge output to about 260,500t in 2025 from 256,000t in 2024. This marks the tenth straight annual increase since 2016. Meanwhile, China’s production share rises to about 72% as global supply concentrates further.

Titanium sponge capacity surplus widens as new plants ramp up

Titanium sponge capacity surplus is the central risk entering 2026. China’s sponge capacity is forecast to reach about 441,000 t/yr in 2026 from 341,000 t/yr in 2025. As a result, the sector’s existing surplus could expand sharply as another 100,000 t/yr arrives.

Large private producers continue to drive the buildout, including Sichuan Anning, Chaoyang Jinda, and Xinjiang Xiangrun. However, demand growth does not match the pace of commissioning. Therefore, producers may compete harder on price, payment terms, and product grading.

China titanium export controls squeeze mill demand and change product mix

China titanium export controls on certain mill products remain a key downstream constraint. The controls took effect on 1 July 2024 and tightened again this year. Meanwhile, some mills reportedly paused exports after licence uncertainty, which reduced sponge buying.

Chemical demand remains the biggest swing factor for titanium consumption. The chemical sector held the largest share of domestic mill product use in 2024. However, chemical investment has softened as large upgrade cycles fade and fewer mega-projects start.

Titanium also faces substitution in lower-end chemical applications. Buyers increasingly use high-performance stainless steels and engineered plastics in milder environments. As a result, mills may pivot faster toward aerospace alloys and hydrogen equipment demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Oversupply will test who controls costs and who controls offtake. However, export constraints will keep reshaping where sponge flows and which grades clear. Off-grade sponge exports could quietly rise if overseas ferro-titanium buyers chase value.

EU presses China on critical mineral export licences as Europe warns of countermeasures

Critical Mineral Mine

EU presses China on critical mineral export licences as European manufacturers confront tighter supply chains. EU presses China on critical mineral export licences to accelerate approvals and reduce stock depletion in Europe. The European Union raised the issue at an industry meeting in Brussels.

Licensing bottlenecks hit defence and tech supply chains

China’s export controls have tightened flows of strategic materials since 2023. China began licensing for gallium and germanium in August 2023, then added antimony in September 2024. European Commission officials say applicants often must share sensitive end-use information.

Fewer licences have translated into lower exports and thinner inventories in Europe. China exported 7,520kg of germanium in January-September, down 71% from 2022. As a result, defence electronics and high-frequency communications face higher procurement risk.

Europe weighs countermeasures and diversification

Brussels is considering countermeasures if licensing delays deepen and disruptions spread. Denis Redonnet said the EU wants China to recalibrate the measures and speed processing. However, officials also frame the controls as a long-run industrial strategy, not a temporary dispute.

Europe is also building a broader response beyond trade policy alone. European Policy Centre chief Fabian Zuleeg said member states keep strong decision power across industry and diplomacy. Meanwhile, Brussels is exploring joint purchasing, stockpiling, and partnerships with non-EU mining countries.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Export licensing has become a front-line risk for Europe’s advanced manufacturing supply chains. Meanwhile, countermeasures will matter most if Europe pairs them with new refining capacity. Therefore, firms should model shortages alongside procurement and compliance requirements.

China Imposes Export Controls on Rare Earths, Shaking Global Supply Chains

China Rare Earths

New Export Restrictions Target Samarium, Terbium, Dysprosium, and Other Critical Elements

China has imposed immediate export controls on a wide array of rare earth elements, including samarium, terbium, dysprosium, and yttrium. The controls also affect alloys, NdFeB magnets, and samarium-cobalt permanent magnets, deepening global concerns about rare earth supply security.

This move aligns with China’s dual-use item control scheme, formalized last year through new legislation. The Ministry of Commerce stated the action reflects international norms for items with both civilian and military applications.

However, the timing is widely viewed as retaliation against recent US tariffs. Over the past two years, China has imposed controls on other strategic metals, including gallium, germanium, and graphite, amid intensifying geopolitical tensions with Western nations.

Global Markets Brace for Disruption as Permit Delays and Shortages Loom

Exporters must now submit documentation verifying both end-user and end-use, with immediate suspension of exports if changes occur. Though the official permit process takes 45 days, actual approvals may be delayed depending on destination countries.

Past implementation of similar schemes caused price spikes in metals like antimony and bismuth, as exporters struggled to receive permits. The European antimony market currently trades at historically high premiums due to such restrictions.

In this new round, heavy and medium rare earth exports may decline significantly, given the processing uncertainties. The rules apply globally—not just to the US—raising concerns across Japan, Korea, and Europe.

US and Japan Face Supply Shock as China Tightens Rare Earth Dominance

China supplies over 90% of the world’s rare earths, making the new controls especially impactful for US and Japanese industries. The US lacks alternative sources for heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium, with Lynas Malaysia not expected to deliver separated output until 2025.

Japan, a key importer of dysprosium and terbium, is highly exposed. Traders warn that non-Chinese suppliers may raise prices in response, although ramp-up timelines for new mines remain uncertain.

Meanwhile, Chinese imports of US rare earth ores may fall due to Beijing’s new 34% retaliatory tariffs, though this will have limited domestic impact, as China sources much of its supply from Myanmar, Laos, and internal mines.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China's rare earth export controls signal a new escalation in materials diplomacy. With the West struggling to develop non-China supply chains, this move could accelerate diversification efforts—but not without short-term disruptions. For global industries relying on permanent magnets and high-tech alloys, the clock is ticking.

IMF pressure on China trade surplus intensifies as exports surge

IMF

IMF pressure on China trade surplus is rising as exports accelerate. International Monetary Fund flagged an undervalued currency signal in its 10 December update. As a result, IMF pressure on China trade surplus could widen policy debate in Beijing.

China’s trade surplus reached $1tn during January–November. That level already topped the prior record set in 2024. Meanwhile, trade frictions with the United States and the European Union have intensified.

Currency and inflation dynamics now sit at the center

China manages the yuan through a flexible peg to the US dollar. Therefore, any appreciation can cool exports and lift imports. However, policymakers also weigh growth stability against external criticism.

The IMF linked low inflation versus trading partners to real exchange rate depreciation. That dynamic can amplify export competitiveness. Consequently, it can also worsen external imbalances during a record surplus.

Commodity demand ties back to export-led growth

China remains the world’s largest commodity importer across key raw materials. However, that demand still leans on an export-driven engine. For example, strong goods exports can support naphtha use and related crude imports.

The IMF urged reforms to reduce debt and rebalance growth toward consumption. Kristalina Georgieva warned that export-led growth can raise global trade tensions. Therefore, IMF pressure on China trade surplus may persist until domestic demand strengthens.

China still showed resilience in the IMF assessment. The IMF said China contributes about 30% of global growth. It also lifted China’s GDP outlook to 5% this year and 4.5% in 2026.

The Metalnomist Commentary

A prolonged surplus can reshape metals flows through policy, tariffs, and FX moves. However, a stronger yuan could cool export-linked industrial demand. Therefore, traders should watch currency signals alongside stimulus headlines.