Trade Measures to Dominate Steel Industry in 2025: Focus on Imports and Global Overcapacity

China Steel Factory

Trade protection measures have been the focal point of the global steel industry throughout 2024, with little indication of this trend slowing down in 2025. Steel producers, industry associations, and governments worldwide are increasingly advocating for stronger import barriers to safeguard domestic markets and improve the competitiveness of their industries. In particular, European steel mills have been at the forefront of this movement, calling for more robust action to combat what they view as unfair imports and growing overcapacity in the global market.

European Steel Industry Pushes for Stronger Import Protection

Eurofer, the industry association for European steel manufacturers, has been particularly vocal about the need for stronger trade defence instruments. The association has urged the European Union to implement short-term emergency measures, including import tariffication, to curb the influx of low-cost steel products. Eurofer's stance has been largely driven by the EU’s ambitious decarbonisation goals, with the bloc committing billions of euros in investment. Steel producers argue that the EU's current measures are insufficient, particularly in light of increasing steel imports from countries with lower production costs and fewer environmental regulations.

Significant progress has already been made, with Eurofer helping secure changes to the EU’s safeguard system for key products like hot-rolled coils (HRC) and wire rods. Additionally, the EU anti-dumping investigation targeting several HRC suppliers has gained traction, and further investigations are planned on downstream steel products. As European steel suppliers continue to collect evidence of unfair trade practices, more scrutiny is expected on countries like China, India, and Vietnam.

The Impact of Global Overcapacity and Chinese Steel Exports

The issue of global steel overcapacity has also been a major concern. The OECD has raised alarms about the growing steel production capacity, projecting a 158 million tonnes per year increase in global capacity between 2024 and 2026. This expansion, however, comes at a time when global steel demand remains uncertain. Despite this, steel exports from non-OECD countries have been recovering since 2023, particularly from China, whose steel exports surged by 22.6% from January to November 2024.

China has also been exporting record volumes of semi-finished steel, despite the country’s preference for exporting higher-value products. As China continues to ramp up exports, it has attracted the attention of both European and global policymakers, leading to new protectionist measures targeting Chinese steel. This includes potential investigations and pending duties on Chinese steel, which could affect up to 15 million tonnes per year of exports.

Countries like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia are also seeing increases in steel exports, contributing to the global capacity glut. Turkey, a major market for Chinese steel, has already imposed duties on imports from China, India, Russia, and Japan in response to the increasing influx of steel from these regions. The EU is similarly considering the inclusion of Indonesia in its safeguard measures due to the country’s rising steel exports to Europe. From July to October 2024, Indonesia exported 494,650 tonnes of HRC to the EU, surpassing the previous half-year period, a trend that is expected to continue.

Investigations and Measures Targeting Global Steel Exporters

The growing export volumes from India and Vietnam, along with the rise in Indonesia’s exports to Europe, have prompted investigations into dumping practices in these countries. The EU has already initiated anti-dumping investigations on steel products from Egypt, Japan, India, and Vietnam, with the preliminary results of these investigations expected in March 2025. If these investigations lead to findings of unfair trade practices, retroactive duties could be applied, further tightening global trade conditions.

In response, producers are gearing up for a potential wave of new safeguard measures and anti-dumping duties. Countries that are impacted by these measures may look to retaliate, creating a complex global trade landscape for steel. As trade protectionism increases, the global steel market is expected to undergo significant shifts in the coming years.

Global Stainless Steel Output Sees Growth in 2024

Stainless Steel

Stainless Steel Production Increases Worldwide in 2024

Global stainless steel production saw an impressive rise in 2024, with output increasing across all regions. According to the World Stainless Association, stainless steel melt shop production rose by 5.4% in the first nine months of the year. This increase brings total production to 46.1 million tons (mn t), reflecting strong demand for this critical material used in a variety of industries worldwide.

Regional Growth Across the Globe

Notably, several countries and regions saw substantial gains. The combined output from Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa, and South Korea surged by 11.2%, reaching 5.86 million tons. This increase highlights the rising production capabilities of emerging and established markets alike. In North America, the U.S. saw a significant boost in production, climbing 9.1% year-on-year to reach 1.5 million tons.

Europe also contributed to the global rise, with its stainless steel production increasing by 4.9%, totaling 4.69 million tons. Even in Asia, beyond China and South Korea, production expanded by 8.1%, reaching 5.39 million tons.

China’s Contribution to Global Production

China, which remains a dominant player in global stainless steel production, saw its output rise by 3.4% year-on-year, reaching 28.63 million tons in the first three quarters of 2024. Despite slower growth compared to other regions, China's output still accounts for a significant portion of the global total, underlining its continued importance in the steel industry.

Conclusion: A Positive Outlook for Stainless Steel Production

The global rise in stainless steel production reflects a robust recovery and ongoing demand across industries. With positive trends in multiple regions, the stainless steel market appears poised for continued growth. As production capacities increase worldwide, the outlook for the global steel market remains strong, driven by both traditional and emerging markets.

EUROFER Revises 2024 EU Steel Consumption Forecast Downwards

The European Steel Association (EUROFER) has revised its 2024 steel consumption forecast for the European Union, citing an array of economic challenges. These include the protracted period of elevated interest rates, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, resultant energy crises, inflation, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions in the Red Sea region due to the Israel-Palestine conflict.

In its recent "2024-2025 Economic and Steel Market Outlook" report, EUROFER predicts a modest 1.4% year-over-year increase in nominal steel consumption within the EU, reaching 127 million tons in 2024. This is a notable downward adjustment from the previously anticipated 3.2% increase to 130 million tons.

The report also recalibrates the 2025 forecast, lowering the expected growth from 5.6% to 4.1%, thereby predicting a total consumption of 133 million tons, down from the prior forecast of 137 million tons.

The first quarter of 2024 witnessed a 3.1% decline in EU nominal steel consumption year-over-year, totaling 31.9 million tons. This early-year contraction is expected to dampen the forecasted recovery for the remainder of the year. Significant uncertainties persist in steel consumption due to supply chain disruptions linked to the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, unprecedented surges in energy prices, and escalating production costs. Despite a gradual anticipated improvement towards the year's end, actual steel consumption is projected to remain below pre-pandemic levels.

EUROFER has also adjusted growth projections for steel demand industries downward. The Steel Weighted Industrial Production (SWIP) index fell by 1.9% in the first quarter of 2024, a stark contrast to the previous quarter's 0.5% rise. The decline in production across the EU’s steel-using sectors is attributed to the sustained impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, pervasive manufacturing weaknesses, global geopolitical tensions, and the long-term repercussions of the energy crisis.

The SWIP index decline highlights a persistent downturn in the construction, machinery, appliance, and metal product sectors, partially mitigated by continued growth in the automotive sector. The construction sector, which constitutes 35% of EU steel consumption, has been in recession since the third quarter of 2022, declining for seven consecutive quarters (-2.3%) through the first quarter of this year. High interest rates, labor shortages, and escalating material prices are expected to perpetuate the construction sector's downturn throughout the year.

The report states, "The positive trend in steel demand industries, which commenced post-pandemic, began to decelerate from the second half of 2022 due to rising energy costs and labor shortages following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continuing through the fourth quarter of last year. This year’s deteriorating economic and industrial outlook for the EU is driven by high inflation and resultant interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB), with particularly adverse effects from the prolonged construction sector recession, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and worsening manufacturing conditions due to high interest rates."

The report continues, "Amid persistent adverse factors, the growth rate for steel demand industries is expected to decline to -1.6% in 2024, down from the previous forecast of -1%, with a rebound to 2.3% anticipated in 2025."

Notwithstanding the lowered forecasts for steel consumption and demand industries, import volumes have risen. According to the report, EU steel imports, including semi-finished products, increased by 12% year-over-year in the first quarter, mirroring the previous quarter's 11.3% rise.

Axel Eggert, EUROFER's Secretary General, emphasized, "While the EU's steel demand industries face a protracted downturn due to various adverse factors, import market share has risen significantly. This jeopardizes both European steel production and the associated clean technology value chains, necessitating urgent action at the EU level. The European Commission must swiftly conclude a European Clean Industry Agreement focused on the steel sector."

China’s Predatory Steel Exports : A Threat to Latin America

The Latin American steel industry is grappling with a severe crisis precipitated by China’s predatory trade practices. The influx of cheap Chinese steel has flooded the market, imperiling local producers' livelihoods. Gabriela Fajardo Mejia, an expert in international relations at the University of Navarra, highlighted in her interview with Diálogo Américas that China’s steel overproduction endangers 1.4 million jobs across Latin America’s steel sector, compelling numerous companies to cease operations and lay off workers. Furthermore, Chinese steel production often bypasses established environmental and quality standards, with transparency regulations being routinely ignored.

Henry Ziemer, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), pointed out that China's slowdown in real estate and construction has diminished domestic steel demand. Consequently, Chinese producers are compensating for reduced domestic sales through aggressive export strategies. With the U.S. market becoming increasingly inhospitable for Chinese steelmakers, they are now targeting Latin American countries, which present fewer trade barriers, to dispose of their surplus inventory.

The Chinese government's subsidies for steel production and exports during the pandemic exacerbated the issue, leading to a global proliferation of low-cost Chinese steel. In retaliation, Mexico, Chile, and Brazil have significantly raised tariffs on Chinese steel imports to safeguard their domestic industries, and other nations are expected to follow suit. Alejandro Wagner, the former Secretary-General of the Latin American Steel Association (Alacero), indicated in a BBC interview that the influx of inexpensive Chinese steel has caused significant damage to Latin American steel industries, forcing several major companies to halt their operations.

In March, Chilean steelmaker CAP suspended operations at its Huachipato plant due to the unsustainable business environment created by dumped Chinese steel. Operations resumed only after the Chilean government imposed substantial tariffs on Chinese steel. Similarly, Fabio Galan, president of Colombian steelmaker Acerías Pazdelrio, remarked on the devastating economic impact of cheap Chinese steel imports and called for fair competition.

Reports also suggest that Mexico’s iron ore mines, previously plundered by organized crime cartels, were pivotal in transporting stolen ore to China, highlighting the detrimental effects of China’s opaque and unfair trade practices.

Brazilian steel producer Gerdau temporarily laid off workers at its São José dos Campos plant in response to the unfair competition from Chinese steel. CEO Gustavo Werneck emphasized that this action was merely the initial step in tackling the surge of cheap Chinese steel imports.

Fajardo Mejia underscored the subsidies Chinese steel companies receive, enabling them to lower costs without adhering to quality and environmental standards. She also noted the considerable environmental impact, revealing that Chinese steel production emits 45% more CO2 per ton than Latin American production.

As a countermeasure, imposing tariffs on Chinese steel could escalate trade tensions between Latin American countries and China, with potential retaliatory actions from China, known for its coercive diplomacy. Historical instances, such as China’s bans on Argentine soybean products and Canadian canola seeds, exemplify possible consequences.

CSIS researcher Ziemer highlighted that China, the world’s largest steel producer, generates more steel than the combined output of the next nine largest producers, influencing international prices and destabilizing Latin American economies through dumping practices. He proposed that the current scenario offers an opportunity for the U.S. to collaborate with Latin American countries to counteract China’s unfair trade practices and safeguard domestic industries.

South32 Gemco Manganese Exports Resume After Cyclone Megan Recovery

South32

South32 Gemco manganese exports restarted as the Australian metal producer shipped its first ore cargo since early 2024 from the Northern Territory mine. The South32 Gemco manganese exports resumption follows extensive recovery operations after Cyclone Megan damaged the export wharf and flooded mine areas in March 2024, forcing a four-month suspension that disrupted global manganese supply chains and affected key customers including GFG Alliance's Tasmania ferromanganese plant.

Production Recovery Targets Pre-Cyclone Output Levels

South32 Gemco manganese exports began with the loading of 56,606 tonnes aboard the Singapore-flagged Stenia Colossus on May 19th, bound for Tianjin, China according to marine analytics firm Kpler. A second shipment of 54,078 tonnes will depart on the Panamanian-flagged Loch Crinan on May 28th, demonstrating operational momentum recovery. These initial shipments mark the end of a 15-month export hiatus that severely impacted Australian manganese supply to Asian steel markets.

Meanwhile, South32 plans production ramping at Gemco's 6 million tonne annual nameplate capacity facility throughout the 2025-26 financial year. The company achieved 5.9 million tonnes production in 2022-23, the last complete year before Cyclone Megan disrupted operations. Northern Territory government projections indicate 5 million tonnes expected production over the coming year, though South32 has not released official 2025-26 guidance.

Customer Supply Chain Disruptions Highlight Market Dependencies

However, the extended Gemco shutdown created severe supply chain disruptions for downstream customers dependent on Australian manganese ore. GFG Alliance's Liberty Bell Bay ferromanganese plant in Tasmania moved to limited operations on May 19th due to manganese ore supply shortages. This operational reduction demonstrates the critical importance of Gemco's production for regional ferromanganese manufacturing capabilities.

Therefore, the export resumption addresses urgent supply needs across Asia-Pacific steel and ferroalloy markets that experienced significant manganese ore shortages during Gemco's closure. Chinese steel mills particularly depend on Australian manganese imports for steel production, making Gemco's recovery essential for regional supply chain stability. The mine's strategic location in Northern Territory provides efficient shipping access to major Asian industrial centers.

Infrastructure Recovery Enables Full Operational Restart

Furthermore, South32 completed extensive infrastructure repairs including export wharf reconstruction and comprehensive mine dewatering operations during January-March 2025. These recovery investments ensure sustainable long-term operations while improving resilience against future extreme weather events. The company's commitment to full production restoration demonstrates confidence in manganese market fundamentals and customer demand recovery.

As a result, Gemco's operational restart strengthens Australia's position as a critical manganese supplier to global steel industries while reducing supply chain vulnerabilities exposed during the extended shutdown. The successful recovery operations establish operational precedents for managing extreme weather impacts on mining infrastructure. Market participants welcome the supply restoration as global steel production continues recovering from pandemic-related disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The resumption of South32's Gemco manganese exports illustrates both the vulnerability of critical mineral supply chains to extreme weather events and the interconnected nature of global steel production networks. The 15-month disruption's impact on downstream ferromanganese producers like Liberty Bell Bay demonstrates how single-mine shutdowns can cascade through entire industrial sectors, highlighting the need for greater supply chain diversification and resilience planning in critical minerals markets.

EU and UK Extend Steel Safeguard Measures to 2026

In a significant policy update, the European Commission has extended its steel safeguard measures for an additional two years, setting the new expiration date to June 2026. This decision, announced on June 25, 2024, follows an in-depth investigation prompted by 14 EU member states, which highlighted the necessity of these measures to prevent significant damage to the EU steel industry​.

The investigation identified several critical factors contributing to the ongoing import pressures on the EU market. These include persistently high global steel production capacity, increased exports from China to third countries (notably in Asia), and a rise in trade defense and restrictive measures by other countries. Additionally, there has been a significant decline in steel demand within the EU, further straining the market​.

First introduced in July 2018 in response to the US's Section 232 tariffs on steel, the EU’s safeguard measures involve Tariff-Rate Quotas (TRQs). These quotas allow certain volumes of steel imports at lower duty rates, with a 25% duty imposed on imports exceeding these quotas. The latest extension includes technical adjustments to better align the measures with current market conditions, effective from July 1, 2024.

Similarly, the UK government has extended its steel safeguard measures until June 30, 2026. This decision, approved by the UK Secretary of State for Business and Trade on June 26, 2024, came after a recommendation from the Trade Remedies Authority (TRA). The UK steel industry, facing similar global pressures and market imbalances, has welcomed this extension as vital for its protection.

Industry experts have underscored the importance of these measures in maintaining the stability of the steel market within the EU and the UK. They argue that the measures help counteract the effects of global overcapacity and redirected trade flows, providing a necessary buffer for domestic producers​​.

In conclusion, both the EU and the UK are taking significant steps to safeguard their steel industries from ongoing global market pressures, ensuring stability and protection for the foreseeable future.

China steel industry stabilisation plan targets growth, discipline and greener output

China Steel

China’s new China steel industry stabilisation plan signals a renewed push to manage growth, capacity and pricing discipline. The government aims for around 4pc added value growth in 2025-26 while phasing out inefficient mills and banning new crude steel capacity. As a result, Beijing is trying to balance supply and demand through market-based elimination rather than another blunt production crackdown.

The China steel industry stabilisation plan prioritises competitive, higher-quality producers over weaker players. Authorities will curb “unfair competition” and “disorderly” low-price behaviour that has weighed on margins across the sector. Therefore, the plan supports consolidation around strong mills and seeks a more sustainable pricing environment for both long and flat steel products.

At the same time, the plan highlights technological upgrading, high-grade steel, and raw material security as core pillars. It calls for expanded investment to modernise production lines, accelerate low-carbon technologies and deepen the green energy transition. This innovation agenda links the China steel industry stabilisation plan directly to national strategies on industrial upgrading and decarbonisation.

Market reacts as China steel industry stabilisation plan lifts sentiment

Steel futures and spot prices reacted quickly to the announcement, even as underlying demand stayed soft. January rebar futures rose by 0.85pc to Yn3,185/t, and more than 10 mills lifted ex-works rebar offers by Yn30-50/t. However, physical trading volumes in rebar and flat products remained subdued despite the firmer sentiment.

Coking coal markets showed a more cautious response. January coking coal on the Dalian exchange closed just 0.12pc higher at Yn1,217.5/t. Many participants are still assessing how strictly the China steel industry stabilisation plan will be enforced and what it means for blast furnace operating rates. For now, sentiment in domestic coking coal remains stable rather than bullish.

Recent production data underline why Beijing is acting now. China’s crude steel output in August fell by 0.7pc year on year to 77.36mn t. January-August crude steel output dropped 2.8pc to 671.81mn t, reflecting weaker construction and real estate demand. In 2024, the top five producing provinces saw crude steel output fall 3.2pc to 522.73mn t, still accounting for 52pc of national output.

Supply-side reform echoes and the road ahead for China’s steel sector

President Xi Jinping has already signalled a political push against “disorderly low-price competition” and outdated capacity. Many market participants see the new plan as an echo of the 2015-17 supply-side reforms that aggressively cut overcapacity. However, most small, inefficient mills were already removed in that earlier cycle, leaving fewer obvious targets today.

Therefore, the next phase will likely focus on quality, emissions and efficiency rather than headline tonnage cuts. The China steel industry stabilisation plan emphasises precise capacity and output control instead of blanket production caps. That approach favours large, integrated groups with the capital to invest in green technologies, premium steel grades and digitalisation.

At the same time, Beijing wants to maintain enough capacity to support infrastructure, manufacturing and strategic industries. Balancing overcapacity risks with growth and employment remains a delicate task. How effectively the China steel industry stabilisation plan navigates this tension will shape global iron ore, coking coal and finished steel flows over the next two years.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China is shifting from a crude tonnage focus to a curated steel ecosystem built around fewer, stronger, greener champions. For global metals markets, that means more policy-driven volatility in the short term, but a likely structural tilt toward higher-value steel exports and more disciplined capacity at home. Suppliers of iron ore, coking coal and low-carbon steel technologies should all watch how fast policy turns into enforcement on the ground.

Eurofer Warns of Fourth Consecutive Year of EU Steel Demand Recession

Eurofer

Steel Market Weakness Deepens Amid Tariff Pressure and Global Overcapacity

The European Steel Association (Eurofer) forecasts that EU apparent steel consumption will contract by 0.9% in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline. This represents a sharp reversal from its earlier prediction of 2.2% growth. Steel-using sectors are also projected to shrink by 0.5%, instead of the 1.6% recovery previously expected.

Eurofer cites the new U.S. 50% tariffs on steel as a significant additional burden on an already fragile market. Global overcapacity, high energy costs, and geopolitical tensions continue to erode the competitiveness of EU steelmakers. As a result, producers may face capacity closures, job losses, and delays in decarbonisation investments.

The association now expects any demand recovery to be postponed until the first quarter of 2026, contingent on improvements in global economic conditions. If no resolution is reached between the EU and U.S. over tariffs, Eurofer urges the European Commission to enact emergency trade measures under its Steel and Metals Action Plan.

In 2024, EU apparent steel consumption declined by 1.1%, while domestic deliveries fell 2%. Steel-using industries, particularly automotive and construction, contracted by 3.7%, intensifying the sector’s challenges.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Eurofer’s outlook underscores the compounding impact of trade disputes, structural overcapacity, and energy costs on Europe’s steel industry. Without swift trade safeguards and competitive energy pricing, EU steelmakers risk losing ground to global rivals, jeopardising both jobs and decarbonisation goals.

Eurofer Downgrades 2024 Steel Consumption Forecast Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Market Challenges

Eurofer

The European steel industry faces ongoing turbulence as Eurofer, the European Steel Association, has downgraded its 2024 steel consumption forecast. Instead of the previously expected 1.4% recovery, Eurofer now predicts a 1.8% contraction in apparent steel consumption for the year. This revision follows a combination of escalating geopolitical tensions, rising energy costs, and the continuation of a downtrend observed in recent quarters.

Revised Forecasts and Industry Outlook

Eurofer has also adjusted its forecast for the output of steel-using sectors, now anticipating a decline of 2.7%, down from the previously expected 1.6%. Despite these declines, the forecast for 2024 is less severe compared to last year, when apparent steel consumption fell by 6%. Looking ahead to 2025, Eurofer projects a 3.8% recovery in apparent consumption and a 1.6% increase in output from steel-using sectors. However, this expected rebound comes after consecutive annual declines, indicating that it reflects more of a recovery from a period of stagnation rather than a genuine improvement in demand.

Sector-Specific Challenges

Several key sectors that typically drive steel demand in Europe are facing significant headwinds. The automotive industry, a major consumer of flat steel, is grappling with the aggressive pricing strategies of Chinese automakers, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector. This competitive pressure has led Volkswagen, one of Europe’s largest car manufacturers, to announce the closure of at least three plants and lay off thousands of employees in Germany.

The challenges are not limited to the automotive sector. In the construction industry, a lack of investment, high production costs, and financing constraints are negatively impacting steel demand. Similarly, the white goods sector is also struggling with high production costs, which are expected to worsen once the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) comes into effect in 2026. While the CBAM will not fully cover downstream industries like white goods at first, its eventual extension is expected to raise steel prices within the EU, potentially affecting European white goods' competitiveness, particularly against imports from China.

Looking Ahead: Steel Consumption in 2025

Despite the setbacks in 2024, Eurofer remains cautiously optimistic about 2025, projecting a modest recovery. However, the road to recovery is complicated by external pressures, including geopolitical tensions and global market shifts. The full impact of the CBAM, combined with ongoing challenges in key industries like automotive and construction, will likely continue to shape the steel market in Europe over the coming years.

EU Prepares Countermeasures Against U.S. Import Tariffs

U.S. Tariffs

The European Union is finalizing a series of countermeasures in response to the U.S.'s decision to impose a 20% tariff on imports, effective April 9. These tariffs are in addition to the existing duties on various goods, particularly steel and aluminum, which have already been heavily impacted by U.S. trade policies. The European Commission is working on a first set of responses, and further actions may be introduced depending on how the tariffs affect EU industries.

EU's Strong Stance Against U.S. Tariffs

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the EU's firm position on combating what it perceives as unfair trade practices. Von der Leyen stated that Europe will not accept "dumping" in its markets, referring to the practice of selling products at artificially low prices. The EU’s commitment to protecting its markets from global overcapacity remains a key aspect of its response. Von der Leyen also expressed disappointment, noting that many Europeans feel let down by their “oldest ally” – a reference to the U.S.

Impact on Non-Ferrous Metals, Energy, and Minerals

The U.S. tariffs, set to begin on April 9, will apply to most foreign imports, with some key exceptions. Energy products, as well as various minerals, including non-ferrous metals, are exempt from the new tariffs. Additionally, oil products, base oils, coal, and some fertilizers and chemicals will not be subject to the new duties. However, the tariff will still target steel, aluminum, and automobiles, industries that have already been under the strain of separate, earlier tariffs.

A Changing Global Trade Landscape

These tariffs are expected to have significant effects on global trade, particularly in sectors that rely heavily on international imports and exports. With many European industries vulnerable to the impact of these tariffs, the EU is preparing to take action to mitigate any economic fallout. The bloc is closely monitoring indirect effects, which could involve shifts in trade patterns and increased pressure on affected sectors.

Conclusion: Europe's Preparedness in a Trade Conflict

As the EU finalizes its countermeasures, the bloc is determined to protect its markets and industries from the negative effects of U.S. tariffs. Although the initial measures focus on steel and aluminum, the broader scope of U.S. tariff policies could continue to challenge global trade dynamics. The EU’s response will likely shape future trade relations between Europe and the U.S. in the coming months.

EU Ferro-Titanium Prices Decline Amid Weak Demand and Russian Imports

Russian Ferro-Titanium

Ferro-titanium prices in the European and UK markets have faced a significant decline of 6.5% in the second half of 2024, driven by several key factors. The most notable reasons for this decrease include an ongoing influx of Russian ferro-titanium imports, weakening demand from steel mills, and a substantial drop in the cost of titanium scrap.

As of recent assessments, Russian ferro-titanium prices are sitting at $5.20–5.60 per kilogram of titanium delivered to Europe (import duty unpaid), representing a widening discount compared to European and UK market prices. Sellers in Europe, holding large inventories, are eager to offload their stock before the end of the year, while Russian producers are scrambling to secure contracts before sanctions take full effect on December 20, 2024.

Russian Imports and Weak Demand Pressure Prices

Historically, ferro-titanium prices see an uptick in the first quarter, driven by steel mills restocking and seasonal disruptions in scrap deliveries around late December and early January. This year, however, the expected price rally failed to materialize. Although European Union (EU) sanctions initially prompted some price increases due to mills tightening procurement terms, the continued influx of Russian imports has kept prices under pressure. While Russian ferro-titanium volumes to the EU have fluctuated, the EU has remained the largest importer of Russian material.

From January to August 2024, the EU imported 6,115 tons of Russian ferro-titanium, down from 8,018 tons in the same period of the previous year. However, in July and August, imports rose by 21% and 9%, respectively. Estonia and the Netherlands accounted for 70% of these imports, with Germany and Latvia sharing the remainder. Despite a drop in overall imports, the EU continues to face competition from other regions, particularly China, which has seen a rise in Russian ferro-titanium exports.

The lack of spot demand across multiple non-ferrous markets, including those adjacent to steel and aluminum industries, has been a contributing factor. The sluggish performance of Europe's automotive and construction sectors further dampened demand. Steel association Eurofer recently downgraded its 2024 steel consumption forecast to a 1.8% contraction, signaling weak prospects for the steel market in Europe. The closure of Volkswagen plants in Germany and ongoing industrial slowdowns have heightened concerns over Europe's economic outlook.

Titanium Scrap Costs and Market Outlook

The downturn in ferro-titanium prices has been exacerbated by a sharp drop in titanium scrap prices. In early October 2024, titanium turnings prices plummeted, prompting ferro-titanium prices to follow suit. As scrap dealers began releasing more material into the market, the availability of titanium scrap increased, driving down prices further. Currently, the spread between 90/6/4 titanium turnings and ferro-titanium in Europe is around $3 per kilogram, up from a year-to-date average of $2.81 per kilogram. In the U.S., titanium scrap prices have also fallen, with mixed turnings now priced at $0.90–1.00 per pound.

Scrap processors, sitting on high inventories of aerospace-grade turnings and solids, may push out more ferro-titanium grade material to free up space and generate cash flow before the year ends. This move could further intensify the downward pressure on ferro-titanium prices, as scrap processors attempt to liquidate their stocks.

Market Forecast and Challenges Ahead

Despite expectations of a price rebound, both short-term and medium-term forecasts for the ferro-titanium market remain uncertain. Eurofer has projected a 3.8% recovery in steel consumption by 2025, while the World Steel Association expects a 1.2% growth in the global steel market in 2025. However, these increases are unlikely to signal a full recovery, as they come after two years of contraction in the sector. As Europe grapples with economic challenges, the demand for ferro-titanium remains subdued, and prices are expected to stay under pressure in the coming months.

Projected Recovery in Japan's Crude Steel Output in FY 2025, IEEJ Reports

IEEJ

Japan is poised for a rebound in crude steel production in the fiscal year 2025, driven by an upturn in broader domestic industrial sectors such as automotive, electronics, and industrial machinery, as per the latest forecast from the Institution of Energy Economy Japan (IEEJ).

Growth in Domestic Industries Fuels Steel Production

According to the IEEJ's projections announced on December 24, Japan’s crude steel output is anticipated to increase by 4.1% year-on-year to 86.5 million tons in FY 2024-25. This marks the first annual growth in four years, signaling a significant recovery in the sector. The uptrend in domestic car production, expected to rise by 1.8% to 8.9 million units, is a key factor contributing to this resurgence. Furthermore, investments in digitalization and green technologies are expected to support sustained demand for steel throughout the forecast period.

Export Outlook and Challenges

The IEEJ also expects a modest increase in Japan's steel product exports by 1.2% year-on-year, following positive trends in the global manufacturing sectors. This comes after Japan exported approximately 32 million tons of steel products in the previous fiscal year, as reported by the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF).

Despite this optimistic forecast, the steel industry has faced challenges such as rising material costs and labor shortages, which have impacted the construction sector and dampened steel demand. Additionally, operational disruptions at major automotive manufacturers like Toyota and Daihatsu, due to issues with safety test reporting, have further strained demand. These factors have contributed to a protracted period of decline in steel orders, particularly for automobile manufacturing, with a tenth consecutive month of year-on-year decline observed in October.

Indonesia Carbon Market CBAM Strategy Targets Green Nickel and Stainless Steel Future

Indonesia Carbon

Indonesia is accelerating its carbon market development in coordination with the European Union ahead of the 2026 CBAM rollout. The Indonesia carbon market CBAM strategy aims to help domestic producers avoid punitive tariffs by establishing a mandatory emissions trading system (ETS) and promoting decarbonization.

ETS and Green Industrial Strategy in Development

Indonesia’s Ministry of Industry is working with the European Commission to design a carbon market aligned with the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). According to Apit Pria Nugraha, Head of the Centre for Green Industry, the goal is to use carbon credits to offset CBAM tariffs for sectors like stainless steel. Although nickel is not directly included in the CBAM, it faces indirect exposure through downstream products.

Indonesia is upgrading furnaces, enhancing ESG standards, and preparing export-focused green incentives. These include preferential treatment for certified green products and financing tools to support innovation. Nugraha emphasized that companies meeting CBAM and ESG targets early will benefit from price premiums and stronger global partnerships.

Nickel Industry Prepares for ESG-Driven Market Shift

Indonesia’s nickel sector, vital to the EV battery supply chain, is adapting quickly to ESG scrutiny. Nickel Industries, a major producer, announced plans to reduce its carbon footprint by deploying solar power and heat recovery systems in high-pressure acid leaching operations. The company’s carbon intensity is projected at 6.97 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne of nickel, nearly half the industry average.

M. Muchtazar, Head of Sustainability at Nickel Industries, noted that ESG is now a top competitive factor. Compliance with EU carbon regulations is no longer optional as automakers demand cleaner supply chains for EV materials.

CBAM to Reshape Global Trade Dynamics

CBAM will act as a de facto import tariff on high-emission goods entering the EU. Simon Goess of Carboneer estimated that importers of 85,000 tonnes of pig iron, ferro-nickel, and crude steel could face up to €40 million in charges by 2034. As CBAM expands to include Class 1 nickel and indirect emissions, producers must lower carbon intensity to remain globally competitive.

Nugraha concluded that “green nickel” is more than a buzzword—it’s a strategic imperative for Indonesia’s industrial future.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia’s proactive stance on carbon pricing and ESG compliance signals a significant policy shift. By integrating CBAM-aligned mechanisms and promoting low-carbon nickel, Indonesia positions itself as a preferred supplier in the evolving global metals supply chain.

European Steel and Metals Action Plan could lift some steel prices by 30%, Acea warns

ACEA

The European Steel and Metals Action Plan could raise costs for Europe’s steel-using industries. The European Steel and Metals Action Plan could push certain specialised steel grades up by 30%, Acea said. Meanwhile, industry groups expect higher costs than the Commission’s average price estimate.

Manufacturing associations argue the plan tightens import rules too sharply. They expect the proposal to nearly halve import quotas and raise out-of-quota tariffs to 50%. As a result, they estimate €5bn–9bn per year in tariff costs if import volumes stay near 2024 levels.

Import safeguards tighten supply and amplify price risk for niche grades

Quota cuts usually hit specialised categories first. Automakers and machinery makers often rely on a narrow set of approved, high-grade steels. However, only a few global suppliers produce some of these grades at scale.

The plan also adds a “melt-and-pour” origin rule. This rule forces buyers to prove where steel was melted and poured. Therefore, firms face heavier compliance work and slower procurement cycles.

Downstream manufacturers warn of a policy stack effect

The policy stack raises the total cost burden beyond tariffs. CBAM compliance and the phase-out of free ETS allowances add additional cost pressure. As a result, downstream sectors fear a competitiveness hit versus producers outside Europe.

Industry groups also flag operational complexity for smaller firms. SMEs may lack the staff to manage origin documentation and quota administration. Meanwhile, associations urge policy makers to protect trade with close partners, including Switzerland.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The European Steel and Metals Action Plan may strengthen local mills, but it can also squeeze downstream margins fast. Policymakers should target circumvention without cutting access to specialised grades. A balanced design will decide whether Europe protects industry or prices it out.

Molybdenum Production and Consumption See Steady Growth in Q3: IMOA Report

Molybdenum

Global molybdenum production and usage witnessed moderate year-on-year growth during the third quarter of 2023, according to the International Molybdenum Association (IMOA). Both supply and demand were up, reflecting steady demand for molybdenum in industries such as stainless steel production, chemical processing, and high-strength alloys.

Global Production: China and South America Lead

Global molybdenum output reached 162.4 million pounds (mn lbs) in Q3 2023, marking a 0.3% increase year on year and a 2% rise compared to Q2.

• China maintained its dominant position as the world’s largest producer, contributing 74.5 mn lbs, up 1% year on year.

• South America, the second-largest producer, recorded a significant 7% increase in output, reaching 46.4 mn lbs.

• In contrast, North American production dropped by 5%, totaling 27.3 mn lbs, while output from other regions declined sharply by 19%, settling at 14.2 mn lbs.

This geographical disparity underscores China's continued dominance in molybdenum production, as well as South America's growing importance in the supply chain.

Consumption: Rising Demand Across Key Regions

Global molybdenum consumption rose to 164.1 mn lbs in Q3 2023, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase and a 2% quarter-on-quarter rise.

• China accounted for the highest demand, consuming 80.5 mn lbs, an 8% increase compared to the previous year. Its consumption outpaced domestic production, indicating strong industrial demand for molybdenum.

• Europe ranked second with a modest 1% rise in demand, reaching 28.5 mn lbs.

• In the United States, consumption edged up by 1% to 15.9 mn lbs, while the CIS region reported a 1% decline to 5.7 mn lbs.

• Japanese demand fell by 4%, landing at 11 mn lbs, while other regions experienced a 6% drop, consuming 22.5 mn lbs.

The increase in demand in major economies like China and Europe highlights molybdenum’s critical role in sectors such as steel alloys and energy infrastructure. However, declines in regions like Japan and the CIS suggest uneven recovery in global industrial activity.

Outlook

With China leading both production and consumption, and South America’s output on the rise, molybdenum continues to be a key player in global industrial applications. As demand for advanced alloys and renewable energy technologies grows, the market for molybdenum is expected to remain resilient, though regional variations in production and usage may persist.

Overcoming High Tariffs through Titanium Recycling Materials

DongA Special Metal (DASM) Homepage

Reducing Costs by Using Titanium Scrap in the Age of High Tariffs

Since Donald Trump's election, the world has entered an era of high tariffs. In response to recent U.S. tariff policies, global companies have faced significant challenges in sourcing raw materials. This is especially true in the steel industry, which is struggling due to the influx of low-priced Chinese products. Companies in this sector are working tirelessly to secure materials and reduce costs in various ways.

The tariffs on Chinese materials have further diminished the competitiveness of U.S. companies in the domestic market. In addition, a predicted global industrial slowdown adds to the challenges. To remain competitive, companies must prioritize cost reduction. However, finding viable alternatives in this high-tariff era remains a struggle.

The situation is different in the specialty steel sector. Unlike common materials such as iron, stainless steel, and copper, which are largely controlled by China, the use of scrap offers limited cost savings in these areas. However, specialty alloys like nickel and titanium provide a significant opportunity for cost reduction. By using scrap materials in the production of these alloys, companies can achieve a 15-20% reduction in costs, making it a highly effective strategy for cutting expenses.

Scrap → Feedstock

Global Companies and the Shift Toward Scrap Use

Despite these benefits, the use of scrap in the specialty alloys sector remains relatively low, with only a few companies with advanced technology utilizing it. The main reason for this is a lack of understanding of its practical benefits. Integrating scrap into the production process can lead to substantial improvements in efficiency and simplification of operations, which naturally reduces costs. However, many companies fail to recognize these advantages, often due to a lack of experience.

To truly cut costs, increasing scrap usage is crucial. Additionally, the tariff situation has so far spared scrap materials from high taxes, making their use even more attractive. The growing need for scrap is becoming increasingly apparent as industries look for ways to cut costs and avoid tariff impacts. This raises the question: where can companies source specialty metal scrap?

South Korea Sees the Rise of a Scrap Specialization Recycling Company

To address these challenges, a specialty metal recycling company based in South Korea(DongA Special Metal) has developed technology to enhance scrap usage. This company has been recycling specialty alloys such as nickel, titanium, and zirconium for years, producing titanium sponge substitutes and feedstock for export to global markets. They offer a comprehensive service that includes advising on scrap alloy usage and ensuring that the final product meets industry standards.

Ti Sponge VS Ti Cobble

The company has particularly focused on titanium, a material known for its strength and elasticity. They break down titanium and process it into titanium sponge substitutes. This method not only makes titanium more affordable but also reduces the carbon emissions associated with titanium sponge production, which has become a significant concern in the metals industry. This innovation addresses both cost reduction and environmental challenges, making it an ideal solution for companies aiming to enter the U.S. market in the high-tariff era.

In recent years, the U.S. has increasingly turned to scrap use in the metals industry. In 2021, all U.S. titanium sponge plants were shut down due to environmental concerns, and the country now relies entirely on imports. As the use of scrap and alloys continues to grow, it’s clear that companies looking to stay competitive must address material sourcing challenges to succeed in the future.

DongA Special Metal Scrap Recycling Process

EU-India Strengthen Collaboration on CBAM

The European Union has commenced fresh negotiations with India following its decision to implement the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on imported steel and aluminum, aiming to resolve ongoing trade tensions.

European Commission Secretary-General Gerassimos Thomas led a delegation to New Delhi in early July to discuss a range of taxation and customs issues, including CBAM. The visit sought to harmonize decarbonization efforts between Indian and European industries and address the challenges Indian companies face under CBAM.

Thomas engaged with Indian government officials and steel industry stakeholders, emphasizing Europe’s commitment to importing low-carbon products to support global decarbonization and ensure equitable treatment of imported goods. This mechanism is set for gradual introduction, providing maximum predictability for investors and businesses.

Thomas lauded India's economic decarbonization plans, highlighting the shared commitment of the EU and India to tackle environmental issues collaboratively. The EC delegation's visit provided a platform to discuss the implementation challenges of CBAM for Indian companies, particularly focusing on the potential impact on SMEs.

Technical meetings with India's Ministry of Energy will continue, with a CBAM transition assessment report due to be submitted to the European Council and Parliament by the end of next year. This report will be publicly available for Indian industries and authorities to comment on and engage in further discussions.

Both parties also expressed mutual interest in cooperating on carbon trading markets, pricing mechanisms, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and clean technology. The EU plans to consult with major Asian trading partners, including South Korea and Japan, on CBAM, with both countries committed to addressing related uncertainties.

Last month, trade negotiations in New Delhi aimed at mitigating the impact of expanded safeguards and tariffs on certain steel imports failed to reach an agreement. India had sought equivalent concessions and trade compensation from the EU but to no avail.

With impending EU import restrictions on Indian steel products, speculation arose that India might retaliate through WTO litigation and trade reprisals. However, the recent EC delegation visit, which initiated discussions on various steel-related trade issues, suggests a potential easing of trade conflicts and the start of new negotiations.

Nickel Royalty Reforms Reflect Indonesia's Commitment to Resource Preservation

Nickel indonesia

Focus Keyphrase: Indonesia nickel royalty controls

Indonesia has reaffirmed its commitment to nickel royalty controls by increasing royalty rates and introducing new output restrictions. The changes aim to preserve Indonesia's nickel reserves and stabilize global prices.

Indonesia Tightens Control Over Nickel Output and Royalties

In March 2025, Indonesia adopted Regulation 19 to revise nickel royalty rates. The new structure raises ore royalties from 10% to 14–19%. It also introduces royalty rates of 5–7% for ferronickel and NPI and 3.5–5.5% for nickel matte. These changes, effective end of April, reflect a strategy to balance export earnings with long-term resource conservation.

According to Cecep Mochammad Yasin from the energy and mineral resources ministry, the adjustment aims to secure greater economic returns and reduce overexploitation. He stressed the need to protect nickel reserves for future generations, emphasizing the risks of rapid depletion.

Global Coordination and Downstream Development

Indonesia has cut its 2025 nickel production quota to 200mn t, down from 215mn t in 2024. This move follows a global oversupply that pushed LME nickel prices to a low of $14,000/t in early April. Prices later rebounded to $15,000/t amid ongoing trade talks.

Cecep hinted at possible collaboration with other nickel-producing nations to better manage global supply. Officials also warned of declining ore quality, which could challenge future production, particularly in nickel pig iron (NPI).

Meanwhile, Indonesia is accelerating its downstream strategy. Plans include boosting stainless steel, battery raw material, and EV component production. Under the Indonesia Emas 2045 roadmap, the country seeks to invest over $600bn in commodity-linked industries to escape the "middle-income trap."

The Metalnomist Commentary

Indonesia's nickel royalty reforms mark a major shift in global resource governance. By tightening output and encouraging downstream investments, Indonesia is moving from a raw exporter to a value-added production hub. These efforts could significantly influence global nickel pricing and supply chain dynamics.

Anglo American to Sell Brazilian Nickel Assets to MMG for Up to $500 Million

Anglo American

Strategic sale aligns Anglo’s focus on copper, iron ore, and crop nutrients amid nickel market shifts

Anglo American, the UK-South African mining major, has agreed to sell its Brazilian nickel business to MMG, a subsidiary of China’s Minmetals, for up to $500 million. The deal will streamline Anglo’s portfolio as it pivots toward copper, iron ore, and crop nutrients—sectors with stronger long-term demand.

The transaction includes an upfront $350 million cash payment, a $100 million price-linked earnout, and an additional $50 million contingent payment tied to development projects. MMG’s acquisition will be executed through its Singapore Resources arm, and the deal is expected to close by September 2025.

Brazilian ferronickel assets and greenfield projects included

The sale covers several key nickel operations in Brazil: the Barro Alto and Codemin ferronickel plants, as well as the Jacaré and Morro Sem Boné greenfield development projects. These assets provide MMG with direct access to high-grade nickel resources amid growing demand from battery and stainless steel industries.

In 2024, Anglo produced 39,400 tonnes of nickel (metal equivalent), down 1.5% year-on-year. It projects 2025 output between 37,000 and 39,000 tonnes. The sale will help Anglo prioritize high-margin projects in metals crucial to the global energy transition.

MMG expands presence as Brazil nickel exports to China fall

MMG, backed by state-owned China Minmetals Corporation, continues to secure upstream assets worldwide as China strengthens its control over energy transition metals. Despite the decline in Brazil's 2024 ferronickel exports to China—40,048 tonnes, down 36.3% from 2023—MMG’s acquisition signals confidence in long-term nickel demand.

Indonesia’s rise in nickel pig iron (NPI) output has pressured Brazilian exports, especially in the stainless steel sector. Meanwhile, Brazilian mining giant Vale is also reviewing its nickel portfolio, possibly considering divestment to sharpen competitiveness in its vertically integrated business model.

This transaction highlights shifting dynamics in global nickel supply as miners recalibrate for market volatility and the EV-driven demand surge.

Zinc Prices Set to Drop in 2025 Due to Increased Supply and Weak Demand

McArthur River Mining

Zinc prices are expected to decline in 2025, as global supply improves and demand remains subdued in key consumption sectors, particularly in the construction and automotive industries. This shift comes after a strong price performance in 2024, driven by tight supply conditions and mining disruptions.

Price Performance in 2024

Zinc has been one of the standout performers on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in 2024, with prices hovering above $3,000 per ton in December, compared to $2,537 per ton in January. This 6% increase from the previous year can be largely attributed to supply disruptions at key mines. Notable interruptions included Glencore's McArthur River mine in Australia, which halted operations in March due to extreme rainfall, and MMG’s Dugald River mine in China, which was placed on care and maintenance during Q3.

The zinc market faced a 164,000-ton deficit in 2024, primarily due to reduced production from mines like Boliden's Tara mine in Ireland and Almina's Aljustrel mine in Portugal. However, supply conditions are expected to shift in 2025, leading to a bearish outlook for zinc prices.

Improved Supply Forecast for 2025

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) forecasts a surplus of 148,000 tons in 2025 as new mines and production ramps up globally. One major development contributing to this surplus is the reopening of Ivanhoe Mines' Kipushi mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to produce 278,000 tons per year over its first five years. Kipushi will become Africa's largest zinc mine and the fourth-largest globally.

In addition, European production is expected to rise, with increased output from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Portugal, and the reopening of Tara operations in Ireland. Russia's zinc production is also set to grow, supported by the newly opened Ozerneoye plant. Other key regions, including Australia, Canada, China, Japan, the Netherlands, and Norway, are expected to see increased concentrate supply, especially in the first quarter of 2025. According to trading firm Macquarie, global mined supply is projected to grow by 5.8% in 2025, with around 570,000 tons of zinc in new project approvals.

Weak Demand Pressures Zinc Prices

While supply is set to increase, demand growth for zinc is expected to remain weak, especially in the construction and automotive sectors, which together account for a significant portion of global zinc consumption. Carbon steel demand has fallen in 2024, driven by weakness in the construction sector, particularly in China. European manufacturing also remains sluggish, with the automobile sector facing significant challenges. Volkswagen, for instance, has announced plans to close several plants and lay off thousands of employees in response to falling sales and weak demand for cars.

Macquarie predicts a modest 1.7% growth in global refined zinc demand in 2025, a revision down from the previously anticipated 2.5% growth rate. The uncertainty surrounding potential new U.S. tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump's administration adds another layer of risk, particularly regarding the strength of the U.S. dollar and global trade dynamics.

Zinc Price Outlook for 2025

Given the expected supply surplus and the persistent demand lag, analysts are generally bearish on zinc prices for 2025. The World Bank and Fitch Ratings expect zinc prices to average $2,600 per ton in 2025, with further declines to $2,500 per ton by 2026. Macquarie is similarly forecasting a drop to $2,650 per ton in 2025, followed by a decline to $2,450 per ton in 2026. These price drops reflect the anticipated market surplus and continued weak demand.

Conclusion

As zinc supply increases and demand struggles to pick up, the market is expected to experience price declines in 2025. The key factors driving this change include the reopening of major mines, such as Kipushi, and continued challenges in major zinc-consuming sectors like construction and automotive manufacturing. While supply-side factors are positive, weak demand and potential trade uncertainties are expected to put downward pressure on zinc prices in the years to come.