Kamoa-Kakula Copper Output Falls as Ivanhoe Shifts Toward Smelter Recovery

Ivanhoe

Kamoa-Kakula copper output fell sharply in the first quarter as Ivanhoe Mines continued to recover from seismic damage at the Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The complex produced 61,906t of copper in concentrate, down 54% from 133,120t a year earlier.

The decline reflects the continuing effect of the May 2025 seismic shocks that forced Ivanhoe to shut, drain and rebuild the Kakula mine. The asset remains in a staged recovery process and has not yet returned to full production.

Kamoa-Kakula copper output now sits below earlier expectations, forcing Ivanhoe to lower its 2026 guidance to 290,000-330,000t from 380,000-420,000t. The company also cut its 2027 target to 380,000-420,000t from 500,000-540,000t, although it still expects output to exceed 500,000 t/yr from 2028.

The weaker concentrate output is important for the global copper market because Kamoa-Kakula is one of the most important growth assets in the DRC copper belt. Any delay in its recovery reduces near-term copper supply from a region that has become central to global mine growth.

Smelter Output and Acid Production Cushion the Disruption

Ivanhoe’s first-quarter results also showed a shift in the site’s operating profile. While copper concentrate output fell sharply, the Kamoa-Kakula smelter produced 63,671t of anode during the quarter.

The company also produced 7,746t of copper in blister from the LCS smelter in Kolwezi. This shows that Ivanhoe is building more downstream processing capability even as underground mine recovery continues.

The smelter gives Kamoa-Kakula a strategic advantage in the DRC. Most producers in the African Copperbelt rely on sulphuric acid for leaching operations, while Kamoa-Kakula produces sulphuric acid as a byproduct.

The on-site copper smelter produced 117,871t of high-strength sulphuric acid in the first quarter. This has become more important because the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has raised concern over sulphur supply into African hydrometallurgical operations.

Sulphur and sulphuric acid availability can directly affect DRC copper production costs. Producers that rely on imported sulphur or purchased acid may face higher costs or operating constraints if Middle East disruptions persist.

Ivanhoe’s position is different. The company does not need sulphuric acid for its own main copper production route and can instead produce acid for regional demand. This could turn a regional input shortage into a commercial advantage.

The main external risk for Ivanhoe is diesel availability. Diesel remains important for on-site energy generation and logistics in the DRC. Ivanhoe has made advanced diesel purchases and implemented contingency measures to sustain operations.

The company also has a lower diesel exposure than many regional operators because it has access to 250MW of hydroelectric capacity. A further 60MW of solar power with battery storage is expected to come online soon, strengthening the site’s energy resilience.

Kipushi Zinc Growth Adds Diversification Despite Grid Instability

Ivanhoe’s Kipushi zinc-copper-lead-germanium mine delivered a stronger first-quarter result. The DRC mine produced a quarterly record of 65,044t of zinc in concentrate, up 52.2% from a year earlier and 5.9% from the previous quarter.

The result gives Ivanhoe an important diversification benefit while Kamoa-Kakula works through its recovery. Zinc concentrate output from Kipushi adds exposure to galvanizing, infrastructure, alloying and specialty metal supply chains.

Kipushi also carries strategic by-product relevance because the mine includes copper, lead and germanium. Germanium has become more important for semiconductors, fibre optics, infrared systems and defence applications.

However, Kipushi still faces infrastructure constraints. Ivanhoe said concentrator availability was affected by electrical grid instability, even as zinc output increased.

This highlights a wider challenge across the DRC mining sector. The country has high-grade resources and major growth potential, but reliable power, transport, reagents and logistics remain critical constraints.

For Kamoa-Kakula, the longer-term recovery depends on mine rebuilding, underground transport, smelter integration, acid market dynamics and energy reliability. The 2028 target of more than 500,000 t/yr remains achievable only if these systems stabilise together.

For the copper market, Ivanhoe’s first-quarter performance sends a mixed signal. Concentrate output remains sharply lower, but smelting and acid production are becoming more strategically valuable as regional supply chains face sulphur and fuel risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ivanhoe’s first-quarter results show that Kamoa-Kakula is no longer just a copper volume story. Its smelter, sulphuric acid output and power mix could become strategic advantages in a DRC market exposed to reagent, fuel and logistics shocks.