Global Stainless Steel Output Sees Growth in 2024

Stainless Steel

Stainless Steel Production Increases Worldwide in 2024

Global stainless steel production saw an impressive rise in 2024, with output increasing across all regions. According to the World Stainless Association, stainless steel melt shop production rose by 5.4% in the first nine months of the year. This increase brings total production to 46.1 million tons (mn t), reflecting strong demand for this critical material used in a variety of industries worldwide.

Regional Growth Across the Globe

Notably, several countries and regions saw substantial gains. The combined output from Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa, and South Korea surged by 11.2%, reaching 5.86 million tons. This increase highlights the rising production capabilities of emerging and established markets alike. In North America, the U.S. saw a significant boost in production, climbing 9.1% year-on-year to reach 1.5 million tons.

Europe also contributed to the global rise, with its stainless steel production increasing by 4.9%, totaling 4.69 million tons. Even in Asia, beyond China and South Korea, production expanded by 8.1%, reaching 5.39 million tons.

China’s Contribution to Global Production

China, which remains a dominant player in global stainless steel production, saw its output rise by 3.4% year-on-year, reaching 28.63 million tons in the first three quarters of 2024. Despite slower growth compared to other regions, China's output still accounts for a significant portion of the global total, underlining its continued importance in the steel industry.

Conclusion: A Positive Outlook for Stainless Steel Production

The global rise in stainless steel production reflects a robust recovery and ongoing demand across industries. With positive trends in multiple regions, the stainless steel market appears poised for continued growth. As production capacities increase worldwide, the outlook for the global steel market remains strong, driven by both traditional and emerging markets.

India Stainless Steel Fuel Crunch Forces Jindal Stainless to Reduce Operations

Jindal Stainless

India stainless steel fuel crunch is now directly cutting production at Jindal Stainless, the country’s largest stainless steel producer. The company has begun operating its plants at reduced capacity as Middle East tensions disrupt fuel availability and global shipping routes.

The pressure is centered on critical industrial fuels and gases used across stainless steelmaking. Propane, LPG, and natural gas supplies have tightened after disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, creating a direct operational risk for Indian mills.

Jindal Stainless said limited fuel availability has affected several manufacturing processes and forced the company to rationalise operations. The India stainless steel fuel crunch is also raising the risk of shipment delays for customers.

Stainless Steel Mills Face Higher Fuel Exposure Than Carbon Steel Producers

Stainless steel producers face a different energy risk profile from conventional carbon steel plants. Blast furnace-based steelmakers can use internally generated gases from coke ovens and blast furnaces, while scrap-based stainless steel routes depend more heavily on external fuel supply.

This structural difference is now becoming a competitive and operational weakness. When LPG, propane, or piped natural gas supplies tighten, stainless steel mills have fewer internal alternatives to maintain stable production.

Jindal Stainless has around 3 million tonnes per year of production capacity and plans to expand to 4.2 million tonnes per year in April 2026-March 2027. However, the current fuel disruption shows that capacity growth depends not only on demand and investment, but also on reliable energy logistics.

Fuel Allocation Becomes a Strategic Issue for Indian Industry

India’s fuel allocation policy is adding another layer of pressure. The government has diverted part of natural gas supply away from industry to prioritise household consumption, leaving manufacturers exposed to tighter industrial supply.

Jindal Stainless said clear guidance on propane, LPG, and natural gas allocation will be essential for stainless steel producers. Stable fuel supply is now necessary for mills to plan production, manage customer commitments, and avoid deeper disruptions.

The broader Indian stainless steel sector is also feeling the strain. Small and mid-sized mills, particularly in regions such as Gujarat, are cutting output as LNG shortages deepen. Mills reliant on LPG or piped natural gas face the most severe constraints.

The India stainless steel fuel crunch could therefore become more than a temporary supply issue. If fuel availability does not stabilise, temporary shutdowns may follow across parts of the sector, tightening stainless supply and delaying deliveries to downstream manufacturers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s stainless steel sector is showing how energy security can become an industrial competitiveness issue. Scrap-based steelmaking supports decarbonisation, but it still needs stable external fuel systems to remain reliable at scale.

China's Stainless Steel Production Reaches New Heights in 2024

Stainless Steel

Record Output Driven by Robust Feedstock Supply and Global Demand

China's stainless steel industry achieved a record-high melt shop output in 2024, bolstered by a solid supply of feedstock and a strong demand from international markets. This surge in production underscores China's expanding influence in the global stainless steel market, positioning it to capitalize on growing consumption trends.

Diverse Product Range and Market Dynamics

The production dynamics varied across different stainless steel series, reflecting diverse market demands and applications. The 300 series, known for its high nickel content, saw an increase in output, mainly due to expanded production capacities in Shandong and new capacities in Fujian. In contrast, the 200 series—which contains lower nickel and higher manganese, typically used in construction and manufacturing—experienced a slowdown due to a sluggish real estate sector. Meanwhile, production of the 400 series, which is chrome-based, increased significantly as it began to replace some of the demand for the 200 series.

International Trade and Future Prospects

In 2024, China's stainless steel exports grew by 21.9%, reaching 5.04 million tonnes, supported by competitive international pricing and the availability of raw materials, particularly ferronickel. Imports of ferronickel, crucial for stainless steel production, also rose, largely due to increased shipments from Indonesia. Looking ahead to 2025, China's stainless steel production is expected to continue growing. This forecast is supported by a drop in prices for 304 stainless steel cold-rolled coil and the ongoing availability of cost-effective Indonesian ferronickel, which keeps Chinese products competitively priced in the global market.

Acerinox Earnings Fall as Stainless Steel Price Pressure Offsets Higher Output

Acerinox

Acerinox earnings fell in 2025 as weak stainless steel demand, price pressure, and import competition outweighed higher production and revenue growth. The Spanish stainless steel and high-performance alloys producer reported adjusted Ebitda of €422mn, down 5.2pc from the previous year.

Acerinox earnings came under deeper pressure on a reported basis. Reported Ebitda fell by 29pc to €354mn, affected by a €60mn inventory adjustment and a €9mn provision linked to Acerinox Europa’s staff rejuvenation plan.

The group also moved to a €40mn loss after tax and non-controlling interests, compared with a €225mn profit in 2024. Revenue still rose by 7pc to €5.78bn, supported by higher output and the first full-year consolidation of Haynes International.

Stainless Steel Division Faces Weak Europe and Import Pressure

Acerinox increased production in 2025, but the stainless steel division remained under margin pressure. Group melt shop production rose by 6pc to 1.87mn t, while stainless steel melt shop output increased by 7pc to 1.78mn t.

Cold rolling production also rose by 7pc to 1.16mn t. However, stronger volumes did not protect profitability. The stainless steel division’s Ebitda fell by 43pc to €219mn as low European demand and import competition pushed prices lower.

The fourth quarter showed how fragile the market remains. Group melt shop production fell by 11pc from the previous quarter to 403,000t, affected by seasonal weakness and tariff uncertainty. Acerinox said European prices declined as imports increased ahead of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism.

High-Performance Alloys and Trade Measures Shape the Outlook

High-performance alloys helped soften the stainless steel downturn. The division benefited from the Haynes acquisition, with melting shop production rising by 6pc to 83,000t and finishing shop output increasing by 12pc to 47,000t.

The high-performance alloys division lifted Ebitda by 15pc to €135mn, despite weaker demand in oil and gas and chemical processing. Aerospace performed strongly, showing the strategic value of Haynes in applications that require nickel alloys, specialty materials, and high-reliability supply chains.

Acerinox earnings in 2026 will depend heavily on demand recovery and trade policy. The company expects gradual improvement and slightly higher first-quarter adjusted Ebitda quarter on quarter. It also expects CBAM and tighter EU safeguards to support European producers once fully implemented, while US Section 232 tariffs continue to benefit domestic production through its NAS facility.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Acerinox shows the split inside advanced metals: stainless steel remains exposed to weak European demand, while aerospace-linked alloys offer resilience. Trade measures may help, but competitiveness will still depend on energy costs, import discipline, and demand recovery.

Global Stainless Steel Production Rises by 6.3% in First Half of 2024

Worldstainless

A Global Outlook on Stainless Steel Production

Global stainless steel production surged by 6.3% year-on-year, reaching 30.37 million tonnes (mn t) in the first six months of 2024, according to data released by Worldstainless, a Belgium-based industry research and development association.

Regional Performance Highlights

• China: The world's largest producer of stainless steel recorded a 5.9% increase, with production rising to 18.75mn t between January and June 2024.
• Asia (excluding China and South Korea): Other Asian nations showed notable growth of 9% year-on-year, producing 3.62mn t.
• Europe: The weakest regional performer, Europe reported a marginal growth of just 0.3% year-on-year to 3.14mn t.
• Other Regions:

1. The group of Brazil, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, and Indonesia collectively grew output by 10% year-on-year, reaching 3.84mn t.
2. The United States posted robust growth of 9%, with output increasing to 1.03mn t.

Indonesia's Crucial Role

Industry analysts emphasize that Indonesia's stainless steel output will be pivotal in shaping global market trends for the rest of 2024 and into 2025. The country’s expansion in production capacity and investments in the steel sector position it as a key driver of future growth.

Implications for the Market

The global rise in stainless steel production reflects an upswing in industrial demand, with particular strength in the Asian and American markets. However, Europe's stagnation underscores challenges in its industrial sector, including energy costs and economic uncertainties. The anticipated Indonesian growth could stabilize or even further boost global output, depending on demand trends and regional dynamics.

European Stainless Steel Scrap Prices Rise on Stronger Mill Demand

Stainless Steel Scrap

European stainless steel scrap prices continued to rise this week as stronger mill demand and firmer downstream stainless steel prices supported the market. Both 304 and 316 stainless scrap grades moved higher on a week-on-week basis, reflecting tighter availability and improved buying interest.

European stainless steel scrap prices gained as mills returned to the market more actively for near-term production needs. The 304 stainless scrap solids cif Rotterdam assessment rose to €1,280-1,300/t, compared with €1,250-1,300/t the previous week.

European stainless steel scrap prices also benefited from stronger sentiment in finished stainless steel markets. Traders reported steady enquiries, higher bid levels, and better liquidity as producers moved to secure feedstock.

304 Stainless Scrap Gains as Mills Secure Feedstock

The 304 stainless scrap market strengthened as sustained buying interest pushed the lower end of the price range higher. Sellers were able to achieve improved prices, especially where prompt material was available.

Mill demand remained firm after the previous week’s sharp increase. Producers continued to procure scrap for near-term stainless steel production, creating a more competitive buying environment.

The rise in downstream flat stainless steel prices was a key driver. Stronger finished product pricing encouraged mills to step up scrap purchases after a period of more cautious buying.

316 Scrap Tightens on Limited Molybdenum-Bearing Supply

The 316 stainless scrap market also moved higher, with solids cif Rotterdam rising to €2,300-2,350/t from €2,280-2,330/t. The increase reflected tight availability of molybdenum-bearing scrap and steady mill purchasing interest.

Supply remained limited as some sellers held back material in expectation of further price gains. Others reported reduced availability of prompt tonnage, adding support to the market.

The tighter supply-demand balance strengthened pricing momentum across the stainless scrap complex. If downstream stainless steel prices remain firm, mills may continue to support higher scrap levels.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The stainless scrap market is showing how quickly feedstock prices can respond when mills regain confidence. The key risk is whether stronger finished stainless prices can hold long enough to sustain this buying cycle.

Europa Plant Drives 3Q Rise in Acerinox’s Stainless Steel Output Amid Challenges

Acerinox

Acerinox, a prominent Spanish stainless steel producer, saw an uptick in its steel output in the third quarter of 2024, driven by the reactivation of the Acerinox Europa plant in Los Barrios, Spain. This follows a significant five-month shutdown due to workers' strikes earlier this year. The plant’s resumption in production helped the company achieve a rise in melt shop production from the second quarter, signaling a positive recovery. However, despite the production increase, Acerinox's revenues in the stainless steel segment faced a decline due to ongoing challenging market conditions, particularly in Europe and the US.

Key Highlights from Acerinox’s Third-Quarter Performance:

• Production and Shipments Growth: Acerinox’s stainless steel output rose by 11.85% year-on-year, totaling 473,000 tons in the July-September period. The ramp-up of the Acerinox Europa plant contributed to a notable 23.2% increase in shipments from the previous quarter.

• Market Challenges: Despite the rise in shipments, the company’s stainless steel revenues declined both on a quarterly and yearly basis. Finished stainless steel prices have decreased, primarily due to reduced alloy surcharges, although the base price in the US remained stable.

• EBITDA Decline: The group’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) for the third quarter fell by 9% year-on-year, amounting to €86 million. The group's performance in the January-September period also showed a significant retreat, with EBITDA down by 47%, reflecting the industry's overall weakness.

• High-Performance Alloys Struggles: Acerinox’s high-performance alloys segment experienced a 46% year-on-year decline in EBITDA, driven by a sharp drop in nickel prices. However, the segment saw a 5.9% increase in output, reaching 18,000 tons in the third quarter.

• Strategic Moves and Diversification: In response to persistent weakness in the European market, Acerinox has diversified its portfolio. The company’s recent acquisition of Haynes aims to strengthen its foothold in the US market, especially focusing on higher value-added products. Additionally, Acerinox sold its loss-making subsidiary, Bahru Stainless, for $95 million to improve its balance sheet.

Outlook for Acerinox in Q4 2024:

Acerinox anticipates that market conditions will remain challenging in the fourth quarter. Geopolitical uncertainties, macroeconomic volatility, and market seasonality are expected to impact demand for stainless steel, particularly in Europe. The company has curtailed production at the Acerinox Europa plant in response to low demand and declining prices. However, Acerinox expects its EBITDA for the final quarter to surpass third-quarter levels, thanks to the sale of Bahru Stainless, though adjusted EBITDA is projected to remain lower.

The global stainless steel industry continues to grapple with high production costs, low sales prices, and declining demand, particularly in Europe. Meanwhile, the aerospace sector and the high-performance alloys market are expected to provide some relief for Acerinox as the company focuses on diversifying its revenue streams.

China’s Jinhai to Halt Stainless Steel Output Amid High Costs and Weak Demand

Jinhai

China’s Jinhai, a prominent stainless steel producer in Guangxi province, has announced plans to suspend its melt shop production from January 1 for approximately 1 ½ months. This decision follows mounting production costs and weak downstream demand in the domestic market.

Production Halt Details

Jinhai, which operates a melt shop with an annual capacity of 1 million tons, produced around 900,000 tons of stainless steel in 2023, primarily using stainless scrap as its feedstock. The suspension of operations will impact production levels, contributing to an expected decrease in China’s total stainless steel output for the January-February period.

As of Q3 2023, Jinhai accounted for approximately 226,000 tons of China’s overall stainless steel production of 9.92 million tons. The company’s temporary shutdown follows broader industry challenges, including thinner profit margins and the threat of potential losses, particularly among producers in Guangxi and Zhejiang provinces.

Market Outlook and Impact

With production cuts becoming more common across various regions, the stainless steel industry is bracing for a downturn, particularly in light of the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, which is expected to reduce market activity significantly. The Chinese market is forecast to see a reduction of around 300,000 tons in total stainless steel output during January and February. This will likely have a ripple effect on related markets, including feedstock prices for nickel pig iron and ferrochrome.

In the coming months, market participants are monitoring the situation closely, as production halts like Jinhai’s and soft demand are expected to weigh heavily on pricing dynamics across multiple sectors.

Jindal Stainless Specialty Steel Capacity Expansion Supports India’s Import Substitution Drive

Jindal Stainless

Jindal Stainless specialty steel capacity expansion marks another step in India’s push for higher-value industrial capacity. The company signed an MoU with the steel ministry under the production-linked incentive scheme. The move supports new capabilities in specialty steel, stainless steel, and forged products. As a result, Jindal Stainless specialty steel capacity expansion aligns closely with India’s import substitution strategy.

This matters because India still depends on imports for several critical steel grades. Those grades are essential for railways, defense, aerospace, and other strategic sectors. The new agreement aims to reduce that dependence and deepen local manufacturing strength. Therefore, Jindal Stainless specialty steel capacity expansion has significance beyond one company’s growth plan.

The broader policy backdrop is also strong. Under the scheme, 55 companies have signed 85 MoUs with planned investments of Rs118.87bn. These projects aim to add 8.7mn t of specialty steel capacity by fiscal 2030-31. Consequently, India specialty steel capacity expansion is becoming a national industrial priority.

India Specialty Steel Capacity Expansion Is Moving Up the Value Chain

India specialty steel capacity expansion is no longer only about tonnage growth. The current policy focus is shifting toward higher-value alloys and more advanced steel products. That is important because global competitiveness now depends on material quality as much as scale. As a result, the scheme is encouraging deeper technological capability.

Jindal Stainless fits that trend well. The company said it will augment current capacity and develop new capabilities in specialized alloys and forged products. That suggests a stronger move into more demanding industrial applications. Therefore, Jindal Stainless specialty steel capacity expansion supports a more advanced manufacturing profile.

This direction also improves long-term supply chain resilience. Domestic production of critical grades can reduce exposure to overseas supply disruptions and pricing pressure. Meanwhile, it can give Indian manufacturers more control over delivery and quality. That makes specialty steel import substitution more strategic than simple cost savings.

Specialty Steel Import Substitution Could Strengthen India’s Global Position

Specialty steel import substitution can also help India integrate more deeply into global manufacturing chains. The government expects the PLI scheme to support import replacement and stronger participation in international value chains. That combination matters for companies that want to move beyond domestic demand alone. Consequently, India strategic manufacturing is gaining both defensive and offensive value.

Jindal Stainless is already scaling capacity as part of its growth strategy. Management linked that expansion directly to rising demand from key national sectors. That suggests the company sees long-term structural demand, not only policy-driven opportunity. Therefore, Jindal Stainless specialty steel capacity expansion may prove commercially durable as well as politically aligned.

The larger message is clear. India wants to build more domestic strength in materials that support transport, defense, and advanced industry. The latest MoU shows that stainless and specialty steel producers will be central to that effort. As a result, India specialty steel capacity expansion is becoming one of the more important industrial themes in the country’s metals sector.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This agreement matters because it combines industrial policy with real capacity ambition. India is no longer focused only on producing more steel. It is focused on producing the right steel for strategic sectors. If execution stays on track, Jindal Stainless could strengthen its role in the next phase of India’s manufacturing upgrade.

India’s JSL Proposes Zero Import Duty on Critical Raw Materials to Strengthen Domestic Steel Industry

Jindal Stainless Steel

Jindal Stainless Steel Calls for Reduced Import Duties on Molybdenum and Other Key Materials

Jindal Stainless Steel (JSL), a major Indian steelmaker, has proposed that the Indian government eliminate import duties on essential raw materials like molybdenum ore. Currently, ferro-molybdenum imports face a 5% duty. The proposal, made by JSL’s managing director, Abhyuday Jindal, comes ahead of India’s budget announcement on February 1 for the 2025-2026 fiscal year. Along with molybdenum ore, JSL recommends maintaining zero duties on other materials such as pure nickel, ferro-nickel, stainless steel scrap, and mild steel.

Boosting India’s Infrastructure and Stainless Steel Production

JSL’s proposal also calls for continued government focus on infrastructure spending, particularly in areas like inland waterways, rail infrastructure, and coastal shipping. This, Jindal argues, will support the stainless steel industry by improving operational efficiency and ensuring competitive raw material prices. Additionally, the Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA) supports reducing customs duties on graphite electrodes and charge chrome to zero, which would further enhance industry operations.

However, to protect against cheap stainless steel imports, JSL suggests raising the basic customs duty on stainless steel products to 15% for countries outside of free trade agreements. This measure, JSL believes, would safeguard India’s domestic stainless steel market and contribute to the country’s Viksit Bharat 2047 vision.

Acerinox Stainless Steel Output Rises Despite Lower EBITDA in Q1

Acerinox Stainless Steel

Strong U.S. operations support Acerinox stainless steel production growth

Acerinox stainless steel output rose 11% year-over-year and 29% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, driven by resilient performance in the U.S. market. The Spanish producer reported 512,000 tonnes of stainless steel and high-performance alloys during the period, with stainless steel alone accounting for 488,000 tonnes.

Revenue grows, but alloy surcharges weigh on earnings

While group revenues climbed 17% from Q4 to €1.55 billion, EBITDA fell 32% quarter-on-quarter to €102 million. Stainless steel segment EBITDA dropped by 50%, reflecting weaker European prices and lower alloy surcharges. European market softness was worsened by rising import pressure, with import share jumping from 14% to 22%.

Outlook driven by U.S. demand and strategic cost controls

Acerinox expects Q2 earnings to improve, backed by a strong U.S. order book and cost-optimization efforts at its Spanish Acerinox Europa and Haynes facilities. However, the company anticipates weaker high-performance alloy sales in Europe, even as U.S. volumes hold steady. The firm’s ongoing strategic plan aims to counteract tariff disruptions and safeguard profitability.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Acerinox’s performance shows how regional diversification—especially U.S. strength—can buffer global stainless producers from European price volatility. Its focus on cost control and operational strategy will be key as trade tensions and import surges continue reshaping the stainless steel landscape.

EU Steel Industry Faces Key Policy Shifts: A Call for Concrete Measures

EU Steel

The mood among European policy makers regarding the steel industry has notably shifted, with increasing support for the sector’s future. According to Axel Eggert, director-general of Eurofer, the European steel industry association, policymakers are beginning to recognize the importance of addressing the growing challenges in global steel production. However, while this shift in mood is encouraging, Eggert emphasized that these positive words must be followed by tangible actions.

Rising Political Support for EU Steel Industry

Eggert pointed out that there is more political backing for the European steel sector, especially as lawmakers become increasingly aware of the massive overcapacity in global steel production, particularly CO2-intensive steel. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that global steel capacity will grow by 157 million tons over the next three years, which will likely negate the decarbonization efforts of the EU steel industry.

In response, the European Parliament has called for a European steel action plan, which has been embraced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. However, Eggert stressed that while these statements are promising, they must be followed by concrete measures to ensure the long-term sustainability of the industry.

Green Steel and Public Procurement as Key Measures

One of the critical measures that Eggert advocates for is the implementation of public procurement for green steel. With the EU's ambitious decarbonization targets — a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050 — Eggert emphasized that EU governments should lead by example. This means prioritizing green steel in public sector construction, vehicles, and other products, which would support European producers committed to decarbonizing their operations.

Global Overcapacity and Trade Distortions Impacting EU Steel

The steel industry crisis is largely driven by global overcapacity and low demand in Europe, exacerbated by high energy costs. Compounding this issue is the low-priced steel being exported by countries like China, Japan, and India, which depresses global markets. China’s exports, in particular, have been an issue for EU steel producers, as the country benefits from state subsidies, leading to significant trade distortions.

Eggert discussed how the EU has implemented anti-dumping measures on stainless steel from Indonesia, but Indonesia has circumvented these by exporting processed steel to third-party countries like Taiwan, Vietnam, and Turkey, which then re-export the products back to the EU. This tactic, along with the support from Chinese investments in Indonesia’s steel industry, has made Indonesia’s steel sector one of the largest globally.

EU Trade-Defense Measures: Need for Improvement

Eurofer has called for enhanced EU trade-defense measures to tackle issues such as dumping and excessive capacity from third countries. Eggert emphasized the need for improved steel safeguards and more effective enforcement of existing trade defense instruments. Currently, anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel are too low, undermining the efficacy of EU trade policies.

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Concerns

The EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) has been another point of contention. Third countries are already looking to export steel from their lowest CO2-emitting plants to avoid paying CBAM costs. Eggert advocated for including indirect CO2 emissions (Scope 2 emissions) in the CBAM, particularly for stainless steel, which is a major contributor to indirect emissions.

Scrap Export Concerns and India's Decarbonization Challenge

Finally, Eggert addressed concerns from India regarding the potential for a European export ban on scrap metal. While the EU does not currently have a scrap export ban, Eggert pointed out that India itself has export restrictions on scrap and needs to focus more on decarbonizing its domestic steel sector. He also warned that if India delays its decarbonization efforts until 2070, the EU will face a significant disadvantage in the global steel market.

EU sets ferro-alloy, stainless steel CBAM benchmarks for 2026–2030 imports

CBAM, Stainless Steel

The European Union sets ferro-alloy, stainless steel CBAM benchmarks to shape 2026 import liabilities. EU sets ferro-alloy, stainless steel CBAM benchmarks using provisional values tied to production periods. As a result, importers can estimate deductions from free allocation benchmarks once charges begin in 2026.

The provisional benchmark reduces CBAM liability by deducting a free-emissions allocation. Meanwhile, the draft applies charges only to direct process emissions at first. It excludes energy-source emissions from the early ferro-alloy and steel scope.

The draft splits ferro-alloy benchmarks into 2026–2027 and 2028–2030 values. Therefore, suppliers face a tightening standard after 2027. EU sets ferro-alloy, stainless steel CBAM benchmarks with lower values in 2028–2030.

Ferro-alloy benchmarks tighten after 2027 across key products

Ferro-chrome receives a benchmark of 2.005 tCO2 per tonne for 2026–2027. It then drops to 1.881 tCO2 per tonne for 2028–2030. Meanwhile, the draft applies the same values across low- and high-carbon ferro-chrome classes.

Ferro-manganese receives a benchmark of 1.397 tCO2 per tonne for 2026–2027. It then falls to 1.31 tCO2 per tonne for 2028–2030. Therefore, exporters must document process efficiency to protect netbacks.

Ferro-nickel carries the highest benchmark among the listed ferro-alloys. It starts at 3.376 tCO2 per tonne for 2026–2027. It then declines to 3.167 tCO2 per tonne for 2028–2030.

Stainless steel benchmarks add defaults and a process-data option

Stainless steel receives more benchmark values because products vary widely. Cold-rolled stainless flat products carry a default of 2.152 tCO2 per tonne for 2026–2027. The default drops to 2.047 tCO2 per tonne for 2028–2030.

Hot-rolled stainless flat products carry a default of 2.021 tCO2 per tonne for 2026–2027. The default drops to 1.92 tCO2 per tonne for 2028–2030. Meanwhile, the draft adds process-related benchmarks when importers provide verified actual data.

Cold-rolled stainless adds a process-related benchmark of 0.165 tCO2 per tonne for 2026–2030. Hot-rolled stainless adds a process-related benchmark of 0.11 tCO2 per tonne for 2026–2030. Therefore, strong measurement and reporting can lower default exposure.

The Metalnomist Commentary

These benchmarks will reward producers that can prove direct emissions with audited data. Meanwhile, stainless importers will gain leverage by replacing defaults with verified process figures. Therefore, exporters should invest now in MRV systems and product-level carbon accounting.

Tisco Reduces November High-Carbon Ferro-Chrome Bid Price Amid Surplus Concerns

Northern China’s state-owned steelmaker, Taiyuan Iron and Steel (Tisco), has lowered its tender procurement price for high-carbon ferro-chrome for November delivery. This move reflects a response to oversupply issues and muted demand in the stainless steel sector.

Tender Price Adjustment

Tisco reduced its November tender price on October 17 by 150 yuan/t ($21.10/t) compared to October, setting the price at Yn7,945/t on a 50% chromium basis. This price, equivalent to Yn15.89/kg ($1.01/lb) for contained chromium, includes 13% value-added tax (VAT) and is payable in cash, with shipments scheduled for delivery by December 5.

Market participants suggest that excess supply of high-carbon ferro-chrome has driven Tisco to lower its bid price. There is also speculation that Tsingshan, China’s largest stainless steel producer, may follow suit, with a potential adjustment to Yn8,145/t or Yn16.29/kg ($1.04/lb) for contained chromium.

Oversupply Challenges

From January to August 2024, China’s high-carbon ferro-chrome production reached 5.77 million tonnes, while apparent demand, including imports, totaled 8.74 million tonnes. However, actual alloy demand was only 8.11 million tonnes, leading to a supply surplus of 630,700 tonnes, according to Hunan-based steel mill estimates.

Falling Demand in the Stainless Steel Sector

Stainless steel output in China dropped by 2-2.5% from August to September, with October’s production expected to remain flat or decline by 1% compared to September. This decline has directly impacted ferro-chrome demand, causing a 1% drop in high-carbon ferro-chrome production in September compared to August. October production is expected to decrease further as alloy producers in Inner Mongolia began maintenance in response to falling prices.

Outlook

With stainless steel demand muted and high-carbon ferro-chrome production constrained by maintenance, market sentiment remains bearish. The continued adjustments by major players like Tisco and Tsingshan will be closely watched as the market seeks balance amid persistent oversupply.

Outokumpu Pushes for Tighter EU Steel Safeguards

Outokumpu

Outokumpu is putting EU steel safeguards at the centre of Europe’s industrial and climate debate. The Finnish stainless producer argues that current EU steel safeguards are too weak in the face of Asian overcapacity, diverted imports and sluggish European demand. As a result, Outokumpu says stronger EU steel safeguards are now essential to protect strategic supply chains and the business case for green steel investment.

Outokumpu links safeguards to decarbonisation and strategic autonomy

Outokumpu warns that Europe faces a surge of low-priced Asian stainless imports just as demand remains weak. The company argues that US tariffs of 50pc on steel are pushing excess volumes away from the US and into the EU market. Therefore, it believes new EU steel safeguards must prevent Europe from becoming a dumping ground for surplus Asian stainless steel. The company frames stronger safeguards as vital for mobility, infrastructure, defence and clean-tech value chains.

Outokumpu also connects trade defence directly to climate policy and low-carbon steel investment. It highlights its own stainless footprint of 1.6kg CO₂e/kg, versus a global average near 7kg CO₂e/kg. That advantage relies on high scrap usage and low-carbon power, which also increase production costs. Without tougher EU steel safeguards, Outokumpu argues, higher-emission Asian material will undercut European producers and undermine decarbonisation.

A blueprint for stricter quotas and carbon-aware trade rules

Outokumpu has tabled a detailed proposal for the next safeguard regime after 2026. It wants global tariff-rate quotas with strict per-country limits based on low-demand years such as 2012-13. Under its plan, imports above quota would face a 50pc tariff, with origin defined by melt-and-pour to block circumvention. It also opposes any quota carry-over, which can create import surges at quarter-end and destabilise prices.

The company calls for regular reviews of quota levels and tariffs, plus an emergency mechanism for sudden demand shocks. That mechanism would allow the EU to react if steel demand rebounds or if geopolitical events reshape trade flows. Outokumpu says the goal is to restore sustainable capacity utilisation and profitability for European mills. It stresses that, if Asian production displaces European output, Europe’s carbon footprint will rise and valuable stainless scrap will remain under-used.

Outokumpu further warns of growing strategic dependence on Indonesia and China if Brussels fails to act. In its view, weaker safeguards risk eroding European melting capacity and hollowing out the region’s stainless value chain. That would leave downstream manufacturers more exposed to external shocks and politically driven export restrictions. Stronger EU steel safeguards, the company argues, are therefore not only about prices, but also about security of supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Outokumpu’s intervention shows how trade defence, scrap utilisation and decarbonisation are now tightly interconnected in stainless steel. Brussels will need to balance open markets with credible protection for low-carbon producers if it wants green steel investment to continue. How the next safeguard package is designed will shape Europe’s stainless landscape – and its climate credentials – for the next decade.

China's Ferro-Nickel Imports Surge in September, Bolstered by Indonesian Supply and Stainless Steel Demand

China's Ferro-Nickel

China’s ferro-nickel imports saw a robust recovery in September 2024, fueled by delayed shipments from Indonesia and heightened demand from the domestic stainless steel industry. Imports totaled 737,358 tons, representing a 41% increase from August and a 13% year-on-year rise.

Indonesian Supply Drives Recovery

Shipments from Indonesia nearly doubled month-on-month to 715,030 tons, thanks to increased production from new capacities, including Nadesico Nickel Industry (NNI) and Shuoshi. These facilities have significantly ramped up their operations, contributing to the surge in supply.

• Nadesico Nickel Industry (NNI): A collaboration between Delong, a leading nickel and stainless steel producer, and CNGR, a major Chinese battery material producer. Located in north Morowali, central Sulawesi, NNI has activated six of its planned eight rotary kiln electric furnaces (RKEF), with a production capacity of 80,000 tons per year in nickel metal equivalent. While primarily producing low-grade nickel matte, NNI can switch to ferro-nickel production based on market conditions.

• Shuoshi: A subsidiary of China’s Zhenshi Group, Shuoshi operates 12 RKEF lines in the Huabao Industrial Park, also in Morowali. With a capacity of 120,000 tons per year in nickel metal equivalent, Shuoshi is a significant contributor to Indonesia’s ferro-nickel output.

Year-to-Date Import Trends

From January to September 2024, China’s total ferro-nickel imports reached 6.41 million tons, a 6% increase compared to the same period in 2023. However, this growth is markedly slower than the 46% surge recorded in the previous year, reflecting a combination of factors:

1. Indonesian Restrictions: Indonesia’s regulatory limitations on pyrometallurgy process capacities have constrained supply growth.
2. Stainless Steel Demand Slowdown: China’s stainless steel sector, a key consumer of ferro-nickel, has faced a deceleration in growth, impacting import volumes.

Outlook

The revival of imports in September highlights the resilience of China’s ferro-nickel market amid fluctuating global dynamics. With new production capacities in Indonesia stabilizing, and the potential for further demand from the stainless steel sector, the coming months will determine whether this upward trend can sustain itself.

European Stainless Steel Market Faces Mixed Trends Amid Price Stabilization

European stainless steel prices have recently stabilized, buoyed by projected supply constraints and unexpected demand spikes, yet the broader market remains under pressure.

Stabilization in Stainless Steel Prices

Over the past two weeks, European stainless steel prices have shown signs of stabilization, largely due to projected supply tightness following production cuts by Acerinox at its Acerinox Europa plant in Los Barrios, Cadiz, Spain, and a maintenance stoppage at Outokumpu's Finnish facility.

An unexpected increase in buyer interest in Germany led to slight price rises. However, the momentum is expected to fade as service centers delay purchases to next year amid persistent low demand across most regions.

Raw Material Insights: Stainless Steel Scrap and Ferro-Alloys

Stainless Steel Scrap

Despite low domestic demand, stainless steel scrap prices saw an unexpected boost last week, fueled by mounting export interest.

Ferro-Alloys

The ferro-molybdenum market has faced high price pressure, averaging $51.10/kg over the past month. Rising material costs and heightened Asian demand have driven prices up, challenging European producers who are focusing on lower-margin steels to sustain operations. Meanwhile, Indian ferro-chrome exports to Europe have contributed to excess supply, driving prices downward in early autumn.

Prices of high-carbon ferro-chrome (65% Cr) dropped by 8% in September, with further declines in October as producers in Kazakhstan and India slashed offers. However, with long-term contracts for 2024 expected to conclude shortly, a price rebound may be on the horizon.

Demand and Market Outlook

Demand for stainless steel and its raw materials remains subdued. Some European steelmakers may shut operations earlier for the winter due to low order volumes. This pessimistic outlook could prolong the market challenges for the remainder of 2024.

Europe Faces Deindustrialization Crisis Amidst Unfair Competition and Policy Struggles

Aperam

Europe’s stainless steel industry is at a critical crossroads, facing existential challenges due to high raw material costs and increasing competition from Asian producers. According to Timoteo di Maulo, CEO of Aperam, the European sector is particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on more expensive, environmentally-friendly processes, while Asian producers benefit from cheaper, carbon-intensive nickel pig iron (NPI). Speaking at the SMR International and Special Steels Conference in Rome, di Maulo warned, “Europe will die if it cannot create a level playing field,” likening the current situation to playing European football against American football, a game neither possible nor fair.

Stainless Steel Demand Decline and Unequal Standards

Market data from SMR revealed that real stainless steel demand in Europe is expected to fall by 6% in 2024, following a decline of 3% in 2022 and 8% in 2023. The gap in production methods between Europe and Asian competitors is widening, as Indian and Chinese producers are not required to use high scrap ratios, giving them a distinct cost advantage. European steelmakers, driven by stringent EU decarbonization policies, are forced to use higher-priced scrap, further straining the industry's competitiveness.

Di Maulo emphasized that while both Europe and Asia rely on ferro-nickel and NPI, European producers face additional financial burdens that threaten the industry’s long-term viability. The decarbonization measures that Europe imposes on its steelmakers are not mirrored in Asia, where efforts to reduce carbon emissions fall short of European standards.

The situation is compounded by the upcoming European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), set to take effect in 2026. Di Maulo described CBAM as an experimental policy that risks accelerating deindustrialization by limiting raw material imports while incentivizing the import of finished goods. Other industry leaders echoed these concerns, warning that CBAM, conceived as a tax but transformed into a green policy tool, is impractical and will further weaken Europe's position in global trade.

Industry Leaders Call for Pragmatic Solutions

At the same conference, Indian producer Jindal Stainless highlighted India’s dependence on NPI due to rapid industrial growth and a shortage of scrap metal. Ratan Jindal, chairman of the company, pointed out that proposed restrictions on scrap imports, such as the EU Waste Shipment Regulation, will only exacerbate this issue.

The consensus among European stainless steel executives is that CBAM, as it currently stands, is deeply flawed. Spanish producer Acerinox’s CEO, Bernardo Velazquez, stressed the difficulty of applying CBAM uniformly across Europe due to differing national tax systems. Italian steelmaker Marcegaglia’s CEO, Antonio Marcegaglia, criticized CBAM for being limited to early stages of the production cycle and for failing to address the broader economic realities of the stainless steel industry. Dimitri Menecali of Arvedi AST added that without addressing Scope 3 emissions—those created further down the supply chain—CBAM would not effectively promote sustainability.

The industry is calling for more coordinated policies and international alliances to ensure Europe's stainless steel sector remains competitive. As di Maulo stated, “There is a role for industrialization in Europe, in innovation, high performance, and service-oriented materials.”

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Output Slips as China Alloy Demand Holds Firm

JDC

Jinduicheng Molybdenum output declined slightly in ferro-molybdenum alloy production in 2025, even as sales increased on firm demand from steelmakers. The Shaanxi-based producer made around 22,483t of molybdenum metal equivalent for ferro-molybdenum alloy, down 1.6% from a year earlier.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum output trends showed mixed performance across its product portfolio. Ferro-molybdenum sales rose by 8.8% to 23,664t, while ammonium molybdate production increased by 5% to 7,602t of molybdenum metal equivalent.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum output of molybdenum powder fell more sharply, declining by 14.4% to 5,011t. The result suggests the company adjusted production across product lines as alloy demand and downstream steel consumption shaped market conditions.

Steelmaker Tenders Supported Molybdenum Consumption

China’s molybdenum market remained supported by stronger steel-linked demand in 2025. Domestic tender volumes from major steelmakers rose by 5.7% on the year to 160,000t.

The sustained increase in molybdenum consumption required additional concentrate feedstock during the year. Molybdenum remains important for special steel and stainless steel because it improves strength, corrosion resistance and high-temperature performance.

Domestic unroasted molybdenum concentrate output reached 317,900t in 2025, up only 0.6% from the previous year. This modest supply growth kept attention on mine output and concentrate availability.

Mine Capacity Could Balance the 2026 Market

JDC’s main mining assets include the Jinduicheng Mine, with 13mn t/yr of ore processing capacity, and the Ruyang Donggou Mine, with 9mn t/yr of capacity. These assets keep the company central to China’s molybdenum supply chain.

The company expects possible capacity increases at several domestic mines to offset stronger demand from special steel and stainless steel producers in 2026. This could create a more balanced supply-demand situation.

The outlook suggests that molybdenum prices may depend on how quickly new mine capacity reaches the market. If steel demand remains firm and mine additions lag, concentrate availability could remain a key pricing factor.

The Metalnomist Commentary

JDC’s 2025 results show a molybdenum market supported by steel demand but still constrained by feedstock discipline. The balance in 2026 will depend on whether mine capacity additions arrive fast enough to match special steel and stainless steel consumption.

Acerinox Reports Decline in Deliveries and Earnings in Q2

Spanish stainless steel producer Acerinox experienced a notable decline in melt shop production and revenues in the second quarter of 2023, largely due to a nearly five-month strike at its Acerinox Europa stainless steel plant. Despite this, the company's earnings showed an improvement from the first quarter, driven by strong performance from its North American subsidiary, North American Stainless (NAS), and its high-performance alloys division.

Acerinox's stainless steel melt shop production plummeted by 17.5% from the first quarter to 384,000 tons, primarily due to the disruption at the Europa plant. For the first half of the year, production dropped by 16% year-on-year to 824,000 tons.

The company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) from its stainless steel division more than halved compared to the previous year, standing at €92 million in the second quarter. The January-June Ebitda also nearly halved to €236 million. The strike at Acerinox Europa had a significant impact, reducing the plant's Ebitda by €28 million in the April-June period and by €43 million in the first half of the year.

While there was a slight price recovery in the European market, demand did not meet expectations. Apparent consumption of flat products fell by 7% in May, with inventory levels remaining below the average of recent years. Import pressure decreased, with incoming flat products down by 23% year-on-year from January to May. In contrast, the U.S. market fundamentals remained stable.

Acerinox's high-performance alloys division performed relatively well, with an output of 20,000 tons in the second quarter, slightly down from 21,000 tons in the same period last year. The first half output increased by 3% year-on-year to 42,000 tons. Healthier margins boosted the overall second quarter Ebitda by 12.6% from the first quarter to €125 million.

Looking ahead, Acerinox anticipates continued weakness in the stainless steel market and noted a lack of visibility for the third quarter. However, it expects the high-performance alloys market to remain stable and foresees third-quarter Ebitda to be similar to that of the second quarter, with a gradual recovery of operations at Acerinox Europa.