Glencore’s Metals Output Declines in 2Q

Switzerland-based mining firm Glencore's base metals production fell on the year in the second quarter, with copper, zinc, and nickel all registering declines. Its copper production was marred by lower grades from some historical stock depletion and unplanned mill downtime at its African assets, with a geotechnical event and subsequent mine stabilisation activities at the Antapaccay site affecting output in South America.

Glencore's copper output fell by 9% on the year to 222,900 tons during April-June, with its Mutanda asset registering a steep 27% drop in copper metal output to 7,100 tons. Copper in concentrates production at Antapaccay shed 42% to 26,500 tons.

The group's January-June copper output fell by 5% year on year to 462,600 tons. But Glencore expects to recoup its losses in the second half of the year and left its annual production guidance for copper unchanged at 950,000-1.01 million tons.

Glencore's second-quarter zinc output fell by 8% on the year to 211,600 tons. Volumes were lower from Antamina given its expected copper/zinc mine sequence this year, but the drop was partially offset by the ramp-up of Zhairem. The group's January-June zinc output fell by 4% on the year to 417,200 tons.

Glencore's nickel output suffered a heavy fall on the transition of its New Caledonia operations into care and maintenance. But the drop was partially offset by recovery at its Sudbury Integrated Nickel Operations in Canada, together with higher production at Murrin Murrin in Australia.

Glencore's nickel output fell by 20% year on year to 20,400 tons in the second quarter, with January-June output registering a 5% fall to 44,200 tons. The drop was the result of its Koniambo operations in New Caledonia ceasing operations, going from an output of 7,700 tons of nickel in ferronickel in the second quarter of 2023 to zero this year.

Glencore's annual production guidance for nickel and zinc was unchanged at 80,000-90,000 tons and 900,000-950,000 tons, respectively.

The group's ferrochrome output fell by 16% on the year to 599,000 tons during January-June owing to the Rustenburg smelter's continued idled status in response to weak market conditions. A restart was pending an improved price and cost environment, the group said.

Glencore's cobalt production also fell by 27% year on year to 15,900 tons in the first half, attributed to lower run rates at Mutanda in response to a weak cobalt pricing environment, together with lower throughput and cobalt grades at the KCC asset.

Glencore Aluminum Recycling Stake Expands South Carolina Remelting Footprint

Aluminum Scrap

Glencore aluminum recycling exposure has expanded after the global commodities trading group acquired a 45% stake in a planned South Carolina aluminum facility. Alumicore will operate the plant and retain the remaining 55% interest.

The investment builds on Glencore’s earlier financial support for the recycling and remelting project. Those earlier investments were aimed at securing marketing rights for the plant’s future production.

Glencore aluminum recycling growth reflects rising interest in secondary aluminum supply in the US. Recycled aluminum can reduce energy intensity, support lower-carbon material demand, and improve feedstock optionality for manufacturers exposed to volatile primary aluminum markets.

Alumicore Platform Adds Recycling and Remelting Scale

The South Carolina site will become part of Alumicore’s wider recycling network. Glencore said the new plant, together with Alumicore’s operations in Monessen and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, will lift the company’s total recycling capacity to more than 120,000 t/yr.

Few details were disclosed about the planned facility near Charleston. However, the project appears focused on recycling and remelting, which are increasingly important parts of the North American aluminum value chain.

Aluminum remelting capacity gives processors a route to convert scrap into reusable material for downstream manufacturing. This is strategically relevant as automotive, packaging, construction, electrical and industrial customers look for lower-carbon aluminum inputs.

The marketing-rights element is also important. Glencore is not only taking an equity position; it is strengthening access to future metal flows from the facility. That fits the trading house’s broader strategy of combining physical assets, offtake control and scrap supply channels.

Charleston Area Becomes a Secondary Aluminum Growth Point

The deal also deepens Glencore’s footprint in South Carolina. The company previously entered a joint venture with nonferrous scrap recycler Zeb Metals in 2023 to develop an aluminum scrap and dross recycling operation around Charleston.

That earlier project and the Alumicore investment point to a regional strategy. Charleston offers logistics advantages, industrial demand access and a potential platform for collecting, processing and marketing secondary aluminum products.

Aluminum dross and scrap recycling are becoming more valuable as producers and traders try to capture more metal units from waste streams. Better recovery can reduce reliance on primary aluminum and support circular supply for domestic manufacturers.

For Glencore, the South Carolina investment strengthens its position in a market where recycled metal is becoming more strategic. For Alumicore, Glencore’s stake adds a global marketing partner with deep metals trading and supply-chain reach.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s investment shows that aluminum recycling is becoming a strategic materials business, not only a scrap trade. Control over remelting capacity, dross recovery and marketing rights will matter more as customers seek lower-carbon aluminum supply.

Glencore's 3Q Metals Output: Copper, Zinc, and Cobalt Decline, Ferro-Chrome Surges

Glencore

Global mining giant Glencore reported a mixed performance in its base metals production for the third quarter of 2024. While the company saw a decline in the output of several key metals, its ferro-chrome production experienced a sharp rise.

Base Metals Production Declines

• Copper: Glencore produced 242,600 tonnes of refined copper in Q3 2024, marking a 2% decline compared to the same quarter last year. This brings the total for January-September 2024 to 705,200 tonnes, down 4% year-on-year, though the decrease was somewhat mitigated by the sale of the Cobar mine in Australia in June 2023.

• Cobalt: Cobalt production also saw a 2% decline in Q3, totaling 10,600 tonnes. For January-September 2024, the total cobalt output fell by 18% to 26,500 tonnes, primarily due to reduced run rates at the Mutanda mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which adjusted operations in response to the challenging cobalt pricing environment.

• Zinc: Zinc output decreased by 5% to 226,400 tonnes in Q3, and by 4% for the January-September period. Contributing to the decline was lower output from the Antamina mine in Peru, caused by mining sequences with lower zinc grades and higher copper grades, as well as operational disruptions due to a tropical cyclone at the McArthur River operation in Australia.

• Nickel: Glencore's nickel production also saw a significant decrease of 18% to 18,100 tonnes in Q3. This was primarily driven by the transition of the Koniambo operation in New Caledonia into care and maintenance starting in February 2024. Despite a slight increase in output from the Murrin Murrin mine in Australia, total nickel production for January-September 2024 fell 9% year-on-year to 62,300 tonnes.

Ferro-Chrome Production Surge

In a positive development, Glencore's ferro-chrome production surged by 89% in Q3 2024, reaching 295,000 tonnes. This helped bring the total for January-September to 894,000 tonnes, up 2% compared to the same period in 2023. This increase is especially notable after a 16% decline in ferro-chrome production during the first half of 2024, attributed to the continued idling of the Rustenburg smelter. Glencore did not specify whether the surge in Q3 ferro-chrome production was due to the restart of the Rustenburg smelter, but the company indicated that higher production rates and fewer offline days at its other smelter complexes in South Africa may have contributed to the positive results.

Glencore Reverses Course, Retains Coal Assets Amid Strong Profit Potential

In a surprising turn of events, Glencore, the world’s largest producer of seaborne thermal coal, announced it will retain its thermal and carbon steel materials business, abandoning a proposed demerger that was first suggested in November last year. This decision comes after extensive consultations with shareholders, who ultimately recognized the value these assets bring to Glencore’s portfolio.

In its January-June report, Glencore highlighted the cash-generative capacity of its coal and carbon steel materials business, noting that it significantly enhances the quality and diversity of the company’s portfolio across both commodities and geographies. The firm emphasized that these assets would also broaden its ability to fund copper growth projects and accelerate shareholder returns.

Glencore remains the last major coal producer holding onto thermal coal assets, as other industry giants like Rio Tinto, BHP, Anglo American, and Vale have all divested or spun off their coal operations in recent years. Despite environmental opposition, Glencore is keen to underline the profitability of coal.

While the company plans to gradually wind down its thermal coal operations, it indicated that its transition away from steelmaking coal will proceed at a slower pace. Glencore's decision to retain these assets means it will keep its majority stake in Elk Valley Resources, the coking coal division of Canada’s Teck Resources, which it acquired last month.

This move suggests that Glencore and its shareholders see continued value in investing in coking coal, even as broader industry investment has slowed due to pressure from environmental groups and financial institutions. Nonetheless, the elevated coal prices in recent years have enabled key producers to self-fund growth and new projects through reinvested profits.

Glencore also reported that it sold 30 million tonnes of thermal coal in the first half of 2024, a 17% decrease from the previous year, attributed to weak European demand and high gas inventories. Additionally, thermal coal production fell by 2.8 million tonnes to 45.8 million tonnes in the same period, reflecting reduced output in Australia and South Africa.

Overall, Glencore’s coal production, including coking and semi-soft coals from Australia, Colombia, and South Africa, declined by 7% year-on-year to 50.6 million tonnes in the first half of 2024.

Glencore to Revitalize Portovesme Metals Hub with Lithium Recycling Plans

Glencore

Glencore announces efforts to rejuvenate the Portovesme complex in Sardinia, including a lithium battery recycling hub, amid Italian government discussions on future plans for zinc operations.

Global mining giant Glencore has made a significant pledge to advance its Portovesme metals hub in Sardinia, Italy. The company, which has already made strides in transforming the complex, plans to take further action by revamping the site and focusing on developing a lithium battery recycling facility. This decision follows a meeting between Glencore and the Italian government, where both parties outlined a roadmap for the revitalization of the region's industrial capabilities.

The Portovesme site, located on the west coast of Sardinia, houses two critical production facilities responsible for extracting lead and zinc, as well as producing precious metals. Glencore’s commitment extends beyond maintaining its current operations, as it intends to work with new partners to preserve and expand production.

A key part of this revitalization plan includes a collaboration with Li-Cycle Holdings, a leading lithium-ion battery recycler. Glencore and Li-Cycle are exploring the feasibility of a new plant at Portovesme to process used batteries and extract critical materials such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium. This initiative aligns with growing global demand for these metals, crucial for the transition to cleaner energy solutions.

Challenges to Zinc Production at Portovesme

However, the project has sparked some controversy. The Italian government has expressed its opposition to Glencore’s plans to shut down the zinc production line at the site. Industry Minister Adolfo Urso emphasized that the government is committed to keeping the zinc operations active, while trade unions and local officials voiced strong concerns about the potential job losses and economic impact on the region. Despite the controversy, the Italian government remains optimistic about the potential for the lithium recycling hub to create new job opportunities and diversify the site’s operations.

The discussions also revolve around ensuring that Portovesme’s development aligns with the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which could potentially classify the site’s revitalization as a project of strategic importance. Glencore has agreed to provide updates on the feasibility study and plans to engage with potential investors to mitigate high energy costs that have been a long-standing challenge for the site.

Conclusion

Glencore’s push to revitalize the Portovesme hub is a bold move towards aligning with the growing global demand for critical raw materials, especially lithium, cobalt, and nickel. The planned lithium battery recycling plant presents a sustainable future for the site, although challenges remain surrounding the shutdown of zinc operations. The company’s ability to balance environmental, economic, and political pressures will be key in determining the success of the Portovesme project.

Glencore's Base Metals and Cobalt Output Dips in 2024

Glencore

Glencore's 2024 production of copper, zinc, and cobalt saw slight declines, while nickel production experienced a more significant drop. Ferro-chrome output remained relatively stable.

Copper, Zinc, and Cobalt Production Declines

Glencore's copper output fell 6pc to 951,600t, hitting the lower end of its guidance. This decline resulted from planned lower production at Antapaccay and Collahuasi, alongside unplanned downtime and reduced grades at KCC. Zinc production decreased 1pc to 905,000t, primarily due to lower Antamina output. This was partially offset by increased production at Zhairem. Cobalt production dropped 8pc to 38,200t, attributed to expected lower grades at Mutanda.

Nickel Production Significantly Reduced

Nickel production saw a 16pc decrease to 82,300t. This was largely due to the Konaimbo operation transitioning to care and maintenance. Higher production at Murrin Murrin partially mitigated the impact. Ferro-chrome production remained nearly unchanged, with a slight increase to 1.2mn t. Glencore will provide its 2025 production guidance on February 19th.

Glencore to Pay $152 Million Fine to Settle Bribery Investigation in Congo

Swiss-based commodities giant Glencore has agreed to pay approximately $152 million to settle a criminal investigation into bribery related to its business activities in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The case centers on a 2011 incident involving a Congolese public official and a business partner who allegedly bribed the official in connection with the acquisition of mining stakes.

The Swiss Attorney General's office found that Glencore had failed to implement adequate organizational measures to prevent the bribe. Although Glencore did not admit to these findings, the company has agreed not to appeal the summary penalty order issued by Swiss authorities.

The settlement includes a CHF$2 million ($2.3 million) fine and an additional $150 million in compensation, which reflects the estimated financial benefit obtained by Glencore’s business partner from the transaction. Notably, Swiss investigators did not find evidence that Glencore employees were aware of the bribery scheme, nor did they conclude that the company directly profited from the deal.

The bribery case is linked to the business partner's acquisition of minority stakes in two mining firms in the DRC from the state-owned mining company, Gecamines. According to Swiss authorities, these shares were purchased at a price "less than their value," raising concerns about the fairness of the transaction.

In a related investigation by Dutch prosecutors, the case was dismissed following the resolution of the Swiss probe. Glencore’s operations in the DRC include its Mutanda Mining subsidiary and the Kamoto Copper Company, a joint venture with Gecamines. The company has recently faced challenges in the region, with copper production falling by 9% and cobalt output dropping by 27% in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year.

This settlement marks another chapter in Glencore's ongoing legal and regulatory challenges as the company continues to navigate the complex and often controversial landscape of global mining and trading.

Li-Cycle Weighs Acquisition Offer from Glencore

Glencore

Canadian battery recycler Li-Cycle is considering a takeover offer from Glencore amid financial distress and project delays.

Financial Pressure Mounts on Li-Cycle

Li-Cycle is reviewing a 14 March acquisition proposal from Glencore, a major mining and trading firm. Glencore already holds a strategic stake in Li-Cycle and may move to take full control.

The announcement came as Li-Cycle warned in its 2024 annual report that it may run out of cash within a year. The firm’s liquidity crisis has worsened due to delays in accessing funding and paused construction projects.

In 2023, the company halted its Rochester hub project, critical to its spoke-and-hub recycling model. The stoppage disqualifies it from drawing a $475 million loan from the U.S. Department of Energy.

Projects Paused, Shares Delisted, Outlook Uncertain

Trading of Li-Cycle shares was suspended by the New York Stock Exchange in early 2024.

The de-listing reflects growing concerns about its operational viability.

Li-Cycle’s 2024 net loss reached $137.7 million, with revenues rising modestly to $28 million. Cash reserves fell by nearly $50 million, leaving only $31.9 million in liquidity at year-end.

The company has also paused development at its New York and Norway spoke facilities, limiting its future throughput. Its spoke-and-hub model, once touted as the future of lithium-ion battery recycling, now hangs in the balance.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s interest in acquiring Li-Cycle may offer a lifeline—if terms can be agreed quickly. However, the deal also reflects broader challenges in scaling battery recycling under current market economics. If successful, this acquisition could strengthen Glencore’s position in the critical battery materials supply chain.

Glencore 1H losses and debt widen as trading and mining profits fall

Glencore

Glencore 1H losses and debt increased on weak prices and lower output. The group cited US trade policy shifts and Middle East risk. Glencore 1H losses and debt also reflected an $859mn Cerrejon impairment.

Markets, prices, and earnings drivers

Commodity markets looked well supplied in the half. Therefore benchmark coal and crude prices dropped sharply. Industrial Ebitda fell 17pc on lower coal prices and weaker copper production. Marketing Ebitda decreased 6.5pc as trading margins narrowed. Management warned the full effects of geopolitics are still coming.

Balance sheet and cost actions

Glencore’s net debt rose 30pc to $14.5bn at 30 June. The rise followed lower funds from operations and higher interest costs. Net finance costs increased 19pc as rates stayed elevated. However, Glencore guided debt to “meaningfully reduce” by year end. The firm identified $1bn in recurring industrial cost savings by 2026.

Profits, impairments, and outlook

An $859mn impairment at Cerrejon deepened the reported loss to $665mn. Last year’s first half loss was $233mn, underscoring the swing. Meanwhile, copper production fell, adding pressure to industrial earnings. As a result, Glencore 1H losses and debt remain a central focus. Management will prioritize cash discipline and capital allocation. Investors will watch working capital unwind and price momentum.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s diversified model helps, but softer coal and copper can overwhelm marketing resilience. Watch diesel spreads, copper TCRCs, and coal curves for recovery signs. Execution on the $1bn cost program and faster working capital release could stabilize leverage.

Glencore Seeks Australian Government Support for Copper Processing Operations

Glencore

Smelter and Refinery Under Review Amid Global Subsidy Pressures

Global commodity giant Glencore is urging both state and federal governments in Australia to support its copper processing facilities in Queensland. The company’s request, made public on April 2, coincides with its strategic reassessment of operations at the Mount Isa copper smelter and Townsville copper refinery, both of which may close by 2026 without government assistance.

While Glencore did not specify the nature of the aid, the firm cited Chinese and Indonesian subsidies to their respective smelting sectors as a competitive disadvantage.

This highlights growing pressure on Australian metal producers to remain viable amid intensifying global cost competition.

Black Star Mine Revival and State Collaboration in Focus

Queensland’s Minister for Natural Resources and Mines, Dale Last, confirmed he is working “collaboratively and urgently” with Glencore. This includes evaluating the timeline and restart plans for the Black Star Open Cut project, a critical copper, zinc, and lead mine in Mount Isa, targeted for reopening in 2027.

Previously, Glencore suggested the Mount Isa smelter could remain operational until 2030, pending capital approvals. However, the latest review indicates that 2026 is the new closure threshold unless government support is secured.

Regional Economic Impacts and Sulphuric Acid Supply Chain Risk

The potential shutdown of Glencore's smelter would ripple through the Queensland industrial ecosystem. Fertilizer producer Dyno Nobel depends on sulphuric acid from the Mount Isa facility for its Phosphate Hill operations. The company is now forecasting a 7% reduction in Phosphate Hill output, adjusting projections to 740,000–800,000 tonnes for fiscal 2024–2025.

Dyno Nobel is also undergoing a strategic review of Phosphate Hill, with plans to divest the asset and minimize risks tied to inputs like gas and sulphuric acid. Meanwhile, Glencore reaffirmed it will close its Mount Isa mining complex by July 2025, per plans announced in October 2023.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s request underlines the shifting economics of copper processing. As subsidies reshape smelting competitiveness globally, Australia must weigh the strategic value of domestic metal infrastructure. Queensland’s support—or lack thereof—will signal whether Australia is prepared to shield its critical mineral capacity from global subsidy shocks.

Glencore Argentina Copper Output: 1mn t Target Sets New Andean Ambition

Glencore Argentina mine

Glencore Argentina copper output is set to scale as the miner targets 1mn t over 10–15 years. Glencore Argentina copper output will lean on El Pachón and Agua Rica under Argentina’s RIGI incentives. Therefore, Glencore Argentina copper output could reposition the country as a serious copper supplier. Argentina has lacked copper since Alumbrera’s 2018 closure. However, pro-investment reforms now catalyze large-scale project pipelines.

RIGI-backed pipeline anchors capital, jobs, and timelines

Glencore applied to RIGI for El Pachón and Agua Rica this week. The framework cuts tax and customs risk for 30 years. The company plans combined capacity of 500,000 t/yr when fully operational. El Pachón Phase 1 requires about $9.5bn. Agua Rica requires about $4.0bn. The build-out will create over 10,000 construction jobs. Operations will sustain about 2,500 direct roles. As a result, local content, logistics, and power needs will rise.

Strategic implications for global copper supply and Argentina

Argentina could supply 2mn t within a decade as more projects advance. This would complement Chile and Peru in the Andean copper corridor. Meanwhile, Glencore’s plan diversifies supply during mine-grade decline elsewhere. New output would help smelters amid variable concentrate availability. OEMs will watch for ESG, water balance, and community agreements. Midstream investments in ports and transmission will be decisive. Therefore, bankable schedules and fiscal stability remain critical execution risks.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s target is credible if permitting, power, and capex discipline hold. Watch early works, EPC awards, and offtake signals through 2026. Argentina’s RIGI lowers risk, but delivery hinges on infrastructure and social license.

Orion Glencore DRC Stake Sale Could Redraw Western Access to Copper and Cobalt

Glencore DRC

The Orion Glencore DRC stake sale could become one of the most important critical minerals deals of the year. Glencore has agreed to a possible sale of 40pc of its Kamoto and Mutanda mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The talks value the two assets at around $9bn. As a result, the Orion Glencore DRC stake sale could reshape western copper and cobalt access.

This matters because the buyer is not a normal financial investor. Orion Critical Mineral Consortium was set up with direct US backing and a clear supply security mission. The group wants long-life production from high-quality mines that can support western industry. Therefore, the Orion Glencore DRC stake sale fits a much broader US critical minerals strategy.

The deal also has strategic structure. Orion would gain board seats and the right to route its share of metal to chosen buyers under the US-DRC partnership. Glencore would still keep day-to-day control of the mines. Consequently, the Orion Glencore DRC stake sale looks designed to influence supply direction without forcing a full operating transfer.

US Critical Minerals Strategy Is Moving Closer to Producing Assets

US critical minerals strategy is no longer focused only on early-stage projects. Washington has been moving toward assets that are already close to production or already operating. Orion’s earlier Prieska term sheet showed that approach on a smaller scale. This DRC move would take that strategy much further.

Recent US actions support the same pattern. Washington has widened its reach through metal tenders, minimum price tools, and Project Vault. These measures all aim to secure real physical supply, not only future optionality. As a result, the Orion Glencore DRC stake sale would fit neatly into a larger push for direct control over material flows.

That is especially important for copper and cobalt. Both metals remain essential to electrification, batteries, aerospace, and industrial technology. However, western buyers still face concentrated supply chains and strong Chinese influence. Therefore, any credible route to diversify western copper and cobalt access now carries major geopolitical value.

DRC Cobalt Export Quota and Copper Priorities Are Shaping the Deal

The DRC cobalt export quota is one reason this deal makes sense now. Glencore’s operations remain central to the global cobalt chain, but they are increasingly shaped by policy limits rather than only geology. National exports are capped across 2026 and 2027, and Glencore’s own allocation is limited. Therefore, these mines can produce more cobalt than they can freely sell.

Glencore is also leaning harder into copper. Copper prices strengthened sharply in late 2025 and early 2026, while cobalt operations faced more pressure. The company has already shown it can shift plant time and logistics toward copper when returns are more attractive. As a result, the Orion Glencore DRC stake sale could help Glencore share risk while keeping focus on its preferred metal.

Operational pressure adds another layer. Kamoto and Mutanda have faced lower grades, stoppages, repair work, transport bottlenecks, and policy limits. These are still major assets, but they are no longer simple growth stories. Consequently, bringing in a new partner could help stabilize capital needs while giving western buyers a stronger foothold.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This possible sale matters because it combines geopolitics, mine ownership, and offtake control in one transaction. The bigger issue is not only who owns 40pc. It is who gets to direct future copper and cobalt units from some of the world’s most important DRC assets.

Glencore acquires Quechua copper project in Peru to boost its Cusco copper hub

Glencore, Quechua copper project

Glencore acquires Quechua copper project in Peru to deepen its Cusco copper hub. The deal gives Glencore full control of the Quechua project and its assets. It also strengthens optionality for Antapaccay and Coroccohuayco nearby.

The acquisition ties directly into Glencore’s long-held Peru strategy. Antapaccay already delivers steady copper concentrate output from a proven operating base. Meanwhile, Coroccohuayco adds a longer-dated growth lever as it advances development.

Why Cusco matters for Glencore’s Peru copper platform

Cusco offers scale potential when operators connect adjacent ore bodies and infrastructure. Glencore can align exploration, permitting, and logistics across clustered assets. As a result, the company can target higher throughput and better concentrate blending flexibility.

What the deal signals for copper supply and project pipelines

The move shows majors keep buying copper optionality as electrification demand grows. Glencore acquires Quechua copper project in Peru while prices reward secure, long-life assets. Therefore, investors will watch how Glencore converts “highly mineralized” ground into reserves and production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore acquires Quechua copper project in Peru to strengthen a rare advantage in brownfield copper growth. However, Peru projects still hinge on power, permits, and community alignment. The winners will control districts, not single mines.

Glencore Copper and Nickel Output Weakens as Grade Pressure Hits 2025 Performance

Glencore

Glencore copper and nickel output weakened in 2025 as grade pressure and operational constraints reduced production across key assets. Own-sourced copper production fell 11pc to 851,600t. Own-sourced nickel production also declined. As a result, Glencore copper and nickel output reflected a difficult year for ore quality, maintenance, and mine sequencing.

The copper decline was driven by several large operations. Collahuasi posted the biggest drop because of complex stockpiled ore and water constraints. Antamina also saw lower grades from planned mining sequences. Meanwhile, Antapaccay faced harder ore and throughput limits. Mount Isa production also fell after the MICO mine closure.

Nickel performance showed similar pressure. Glencore’s own-sourced nickel output totalled 71,900t in 2025. Lower production at INO in Canada and Murrin Murrin in Australia weighed on results. Furnace disruption and maintenance downtime were the main causes. Therefore, Glencore copper and nickel output declined for both geological and operational reasons.

Second-Half Recovery Helped Glencore Copper Production Stabilise

Glencore copper production improved sharply in the second half of the year. Own-sourced output in July-December rose 48pc from the first half. Better grades at KCC in the DRC supported that recovery. Antamina also improved after an earlier safety stoppage, while Antapaccay benefited from resumed leaching operations.

This rebound matters because it shows the company still has recovery potential inside its portfolio. The second-half improvement did not erase the annual decline, but it changed the tone. It suggests the worst operating conditions may not persist through 2026. However, mine sequencing remains a continuing risk.

Collahuasi remains especially important to watch. Water constraints there began easing after commissioning of a new desalination plant in the second half. If that support continues, copper production could become more stable. Consequently, Glencore copper production may hold firmer in 2026 than the 2025 headline suggests.

Glencore Nickel Production Outlook Points to Only Modest Recovery

Glencore nickel production also improved late in the year, but the recovery remained limited. Fourth-quarter nickel output rose nearly a quarter from July-September to 19,500t. INO recovered after earlier smelter disruption. However, Murrin Murrin still faced maintenance-related pressure.

That explains why 2026 guidance looks cautious rather than aggressive. Copper guidance of 810,000-870,000t is broadly in line with 2025. Nickel guidance of 70,000-80,000t suggests only a modest recovery. Therefore, management still expects grade variability and operational discipline to define performance.

The broader message is clear. Glencore is not facing a collapse in production capacity. It is dealing with portfolio complexity, asset-specific constraints, and uneven recovery across operations. As a result, Glencore copper and nickel output may remain stable, but not yet fully restored to earlier levels.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s 2025 results show how quickly diversified mining portfolios can still be hit by grade and sequencing issues. The second-half rebound is encouraging, but the 2026 outlook remains cautious for good reason. This is a recovery story, but not yet a full reset.

Cyclic Materials and Glencore Forge Partnership for Recycled Copper

Cyclic Materials

In a move that underscores the growing emphasis on sustainability in the metals industry, Cyclic Materials and Glencore have entered into a strategic partnership to enhance the circular supply chain for copper in North America. Announced today, this collaboration sees Cyclic Materials, a prominent metals recycler, supplying recycled copper sourced from end-of-life electric motors to Glencore, a major player in global mining and trading.

Advancing Circular Economy in Critical Minerals

The copper will be initially processed at Cyclic's specialized "spoke" plant located in Ontario, Canada. This facility is equipped to handle the breakdown of electric motors, extracting valuable copper which is then sent to Glencore's Horne smelting facility in Quebec. Here, the scrap copper is transformed into copper anodes before undergoing further refinement into copper cathodes at Glencore’s Canadian Copper Refinery near Montreal.

Strategic Expansion and Future Plans

This partnership marks a significant step for Cyclic Materials as it seeks to expand its operations to commercial scale across North America, as well as in the US and Europe. The deal also complements Cyclic’s recent initiatives, including the production of recycled mixed rare earth oxide (rMREO) at its new Hub100 facility in Ontario. Earlier this year, Cyclic also entered into a critical supply agreement with Belgium's chemical group Solvay and secured additional feedstock agreements with Synetiq in England and E-VAC Magnetics in the US, both of which will supply rare earth elements crucial for Cyclic's operations.

While the specifics of the production volumes and financial terms remain undisclosed, the multiyear offtake agreement between Cyclic and Glencore is set to significantly impact the supply chain dynamics for recycled copper and potentially influence broader market trends.

Zinc Prices Set to Drop in 2025 Due to Increased Supply and Weak Demand

McArthur River Mining

Zinc prices are expected to decline in 2025, as global supply improves and demand remains subdued in key consumption sectors, particularly in the construction and automotive industries. This shift comes after a strong price performance in 2024, driven by tight supply conditions and mining disruptions.

Price Performance in 2024

Zinc has been one of the standout performers on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in 2024, with prices hovering above $3,000 per ton in December, compared to $2,537 per ton in January. This 6% increase from the previous year can be largely attributed to supply disruptions at key mines. Notable interruptions included Glencore's McArthur River mine in Australia, which halted operations in March due to extreme rainfall, and MMG’s Dugald River mine in China, which was placed on care and maintenance during Q3.

The zinc market faced a 164,000-ton deficit in 2024, primarily due to reduced production from mines like Boliden's Tara mine in Ireland and Almina's Aljustrel mine in Portugal. However, supply conditions are expected to shift in 2025, leading to a bearish outlook for zinc prices.

Improved Supply Forecast for 2025

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) forecasts a surplus of 148,000 tons in 2025 as new mines and production ramps up globally. One major development contributing to this surplus is the reopening of Ivanhoe Mines' Kipushi mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to produce 278,000 tons per year over its first five years. Kipushi will become Africa's largest zinc mine and the fourth-largest globally.

In addition, European production is expected to rise, with increased output from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Portugal, and the reopening of Tara operations in Ireland. Russia's zinc production is also set to grow, supported by the newly opened Ozerneoye plant. Other key regions, including Australia, Canada, China, Japan, the Netherlands, and Norway, are expected to see increased concentrate supply, especially in the first quarter of 2025. According to trading firm Macquarie, global mined supply is projected to grow by 5.8% in 2025, with around 570,000 tons of zinc in new project approvals.

Weak Demand Pressures Zinc Prices

While supply is set to increase, demand growth for zinc is expected to remain weak, especially in the construction and automotive sectors, which together account for a significant portion of global zinc consumption. Carbon steel demand has fallen in 2024, driven by weakness in the construction sector, particularly in China. European manufacturing also remains sluggish, with the automobile sector facing significant challenges. Volkswagen, for instance, has announced plans to close several plants and lay off thousands of employees in response to falling sales and weak demand for cars.

Macquarie predicts a modest 1.7% growth in global refined zinc demand in 2025, a revision down from the previously anticipated 2.5% growth rate. The uncertainty surrounding potential new U.S. tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump's administration adds another layer of risk, particularly regarding the strength of the U.S. dollar and global trade dynamics.

Zinc Price Outlook for 2025

Given the expected supply surplus and the persistent demand lag, analysts are generally bearish on zinc prices for 2025. The World Bank and Fitch Ratings expect zinc prices to average $2,600 per ton in 2025, with further declines to $2,500 per ton by 2026. Macquarie is similarly forecasting a drop to $2,650 per ton in 2025, followed by a decline to $2,450 per ton in 2026. These price drops reflect the anticipated market surplus and continued weak demand.

Conclusion

As zinc supply increases and demand struggles to pick up, the market is expected to experience price declines in 2025. The key factors driving this change include the reopening of major mines, such as Kipushi, and continued challenges in major zinc-consuming sectors like construction and automotive manufacturing. While supply-side factors are positive, weak demand and potential trade uncertainties are expected to put downward pressure on zinc prices in the years to come.

Centaurus Glencore Nickel Offtake Strengthens Jaguar Project Financing Path

Centaurus Glencore

Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake has given the Jaguar nickel project a stronger commercial base as Centaurus Metals moves toward financing and development in Brazil. The binding agreement secures a major customer for future high-grade nickel concentrate and supports the company’s plan to reach a final investment decision.

Glencore will purchase 20,000 dry metric tonnes per year of 32% nickel concentrate from Jaguar for an initial five-year period starting in 2029. The volume is equivalent to about 6,400 tonnes per year of contained nickel.

The concentrate will be shipped to Glencore’s Sudbury smelting operations in Canada for processing. This gives the Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake clear downstream integration and links Brazilian mine development with established North American nickel smelting capacity.

Jaguar Nickel Project Gains Commercial Validation

The Jaguar nickel project is expected to produce 65,000 tonnes per year of nickel concentrate, meaning the Glencore contract covers roughly one-third of planned output. This contracted volume improves project bankability because lenders often require visible offtake before supporting mine development.

Pricing will be linked to the London Metal Exchange nickel cash settlement price. Nickel payability will vary with market conditions, while copper and cobalt by-products contained in the concentrate will also receive payability.

At current nickel prices of around $17,200 per tonne, the agreement could generate more than $450 million in revenue during the initial contract period. That revenue visibility matters as Centaurus works with Brazil’s national development bank on potential debt financing and seeks a strategic investor.

The agreement remains conditional on key development milestones. Centaurus must make a final investment decision by 30 September 2026, complete half of tailings dam construction by December 2027, and achieve first concentrate production by 15 January 2029.

Nickel Market Recovery Supports New Sulphide Supply

The Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake comes as nickel markets show signs of tightening after several years of weak pricing. Rapid growth from Indonesian laterite supply pressured global prices, but recent gains above $17,000 per tonne suggest the market may be moving closer to balance.

Jaguar’s sulphide concentrate profile gives the project strategic relevance. High-grade concentrate can feed conventional smelting routes and may become more valuable if buyers seek diversified nickel units outside the dominant Indonesian laterite chain.

Centaurus expects Jaguar to produce an average of 22,600 tonnes per year of contained nickel during its first seven years. The proposed 3.5 million tonne per year operation is forecast to produce nickel at all-in sustaining costs of about $9,764 per tonne.

The project also carries industrial history. Centaurus acquired Jaguar in 2019 after it was previously owned by Vale, giving the company a known Brazilian nickel asset at a time when battery, stainless steel, and alloy supply chains remain focused on secure feedstock.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Centaurus Glencore nickel offtake shows that disciplined sulphide nickel projects can still attract strategic buyers despite years of weak nickel prices. If the market keeps tightening, high-grade concentrate with smelter-ready characteristics could regain importance in global nickel supply chains.

Orion Glencore copper-zinc deal backs South Africa’s Prieska revival

Orion Glencore

The Orion Glencore copper-zinc deal will inject up to $250mn into South Africa’s Prieska mine redevelopment. Orion Minerals signed a non-binding term sheet with Glencore covering staged financing and long-term concentrate offtake, making the Orion Glencore copper-zinc deal a cornerstone funding package for the project. As a result, the Orion Glencore copper-zinc deal positions Prieska as a significant future supplier of copper and zinc for the energy transition.

Orion Glencore copper-zinc deal structures phased financing for Uppers and Deeps

The agreement splits funding between Prieska’s near-surface “Uppers” orebody and the deeper “Deeps” deposit. Orion expects $40mn to flow first into the Uppers to fast-track initial mine development and near-term output. Meanwhile, a second tranche of $160mn–210mn will fund full build-out of the Deeps, subject to due diligence and final documentation.

Glencore also offers an early drawdown facility of up to $50mn for Deeps pre-works. This structure allows Orion to de-risk critical engineering and infrastructure before committing to the full capital envelope. Therefore, the Orion Glencore copper-zinc deal blends development capital with commercial offtake in a way that lowers financing risk.

Under the term sheet, Glencore will take 100pc of bulk concentrates from the Uppers for five years. It will also off-take 100pc of copper and zinc concentrates from the Deeps for 10 years. Orion retains flexibility on delivery points and advance sales, giving it room to optimise logistics and pricing across global markets. First production is targeted for late 2026.

Prieska and Okiep strengthen South Africa’s energy transition metals pipeline

Prieska carries a sizeable resource base to underpin the Orion Glencore copper-zinc deal. The project hosts 31mn t grading 1.2pc copper and 3.6pc zinc. A definitive feasibility study released in March outlined a two-phase development plan. It targets a combined 13.2-year mine life with steady-state output of 30,000 t/yr copper and 65,000 t/yr zinc.

These volumes are material in the context of tightening global copper and zinc supply. Copper is central to electrification, grid build-out and EV infrastructure. Zinc remains key for galvanised steel and infrastructure corrosion protection. Therefore, Prieska aligns directly with energy transition metal demand.

At the same time, Orion continues to advance its Okiep copper project in the same region. Together, Prieska and Okiep could re-establish the Northern Cape as a meaningful copper district. The Orion Glencore copper-zinc deal sends a positive signal for South African base metals investment, even as regulatory and power challenges persist.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Glencore’s willingness to provide both capital and long-dated offtake confirms Prieska’s strategic appeal in a tightening copper-zinc market. For Orion, the deal reduces financing uncertainty and validates its district-scale ambitions in the Northern Cape. Market participants should now watch execution discipline, permitting progress and how quickly Prieska can move from term sheet to binding financing and construction.

Sibanye-Stillwater Glencore chrome agreements aim to unlock PGM by-product value

Sibanye-Stillwater

The Sibanye-Stillwater Glencore chrome agreements will reshape chrome by-product economics at South African PGM operations. The chrome management agreements, effective 1 November, align Sibanye-Stillwater with Glencore-Merafe to maximise chrome recovery from existing plants. Together, the partners will target higher throughput, better recoveries and lower operating costs across chrome recovery plants tied to PGM processing.

These Sibanye-Stillwater Glencore chrome agreements also accelerate contracted chrome delivery timelines by roughly 20 years. As a result, Sibanye-Stillwater can monetise chrome streams sooner and stabilise cash flow during a period of weak PGM prices. Meanwhile, Glencore-Merafe strengthens its feed base for ferro-chrome production, leveraging its established marketing and processing platform.

Chrome recovery plants move to centre stage

Chrome recovery plants sit at the core of the Sibanye-Stillwater Glencore chrome agreements. The partners will prioritise the Marikana chrome recovery plant, where higher feed and improved recoveries should materially lift output. Other Sibanye-Stillwater CRPs will also gain value-enhancing provisions, ensuring a portfolio-wide uplift rather than a single-site optimisation.

Glencore will apply its processing expertise to optimise chrome production throughout Sibanye-Stillwater’s operations. Therefore, the agreements should reduce unit costs and improve overall plant efficiency. In addition, Glencore’s growing operational control over most CRPs will streamline decision-making and shorten response times to market signals.

Chrome by-products support South African PGM mine life

The Sibanye-Stillwater Glencore chrome agreements aim to support brownfield PGM projects that currently face price pressure. Low PGM prices and relatively stronger chrome ore prices have already pushed South African PGM producers to rely more on chrome by-products. As a result, improved chrome economics can directly influence mine viability and capital allocation decisions.

Sibanye-Stillwater expects the transaction to underpin the economics of its South African PGM operations. Higher-margin chrome output can offset weaker PGM revenue and stabilise earnings across the cycle. Meanwhile, Glencore-Merafe secures long-term access to chrome units, reinforcing its ferro-chrome position in a structurally constrained energy and logistics environment.

The Metalnomist Commentary

These agreements highlight how by-products like chrome can become strategic lifelines for PGM producers in a low-price environment. If execution delivers the promised 20-year acceleration of deliveries, Sibanye-Stillwater could gain a meaningful buffer for future brownfield investments. For Glencore-Merafe, tighter integration with upstream CRPs strengthens control over feedstock in a market where cost and reliability increasingly trump volume growth.

Global Refined Zinc Market Set for Surplus in 2025: ILZSG

Zinc

Zinc and Lead Supply to Outpace Demand Amid Economic Challenges

The global refined zinc market will shift into surplus in 2025, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). The organization projects a surplus of 93,000t next year, marking a notable shift in market dynamics.

Global demand for refined zinc is forecast to grow by 1% year-on-year, reaching 13.64 million tonnes in 2025. China, the largest consumer, will see a modest 0.9% increase in usage after a 1.9% decline last year. Demand is also expected to rise in Brazil, India, and Turkey, although South Korea's consumption will fall. Nevertheless, global economic uncertainty, particularly related to US trade policies, could weigh on overall demand growth.

Zinc and Lead Supply to Expand Significantly

On the supply side, global zinc mine production is forecast to rise by 4.3% to 12.43 million tonnes in 2025. Output gains are expected in Australia, China, Mexico, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Peru. European mine production will also rebound by 18.3%, driven by recoveries in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the restart of Ireland’s Tara mine.

Global refined zinc metal output is set to increase by 1.8%, reaching 13.73 million tonnes. Higher concentrate availability will support this growth, particularly from China and Norway, where Boliden has expanded its Odda smelter capacity by 150,000 t/yr. However, closures at Glencore’s Portovesme smelter in Italy and Toho Zinc’s Anakka facility in Japan will partially offset these gains.

Meanwhile, ILZSG projects that refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000t in 2025. Refined lead demand is set to grow by 1.5% to 13.19 million tonnes, while supply will expand by 1.9% to 13.27 million tonnes, mainly driven by production increases in China, India, Mexico, and the United States.

The zinc and lead markets are poised for critical adjustments as new supply streams emerge against a backdrop of geopolitical and economic headwinds.