South32 Gemco Manganese Exports Resume After Cyclone Megan Recovery

South32

South32 Gemco manganese exports restarted as the Australian metal producer shipped its first ore cargo since early 2024 from the Northern Territory mine. The South32 Gemco manganese exports resumption follows extensive recovery operations after Cyclone Megan damaged the export wharf and flooded mine areas in March 2024, forcing a four-month suspension that disrupted global manganese supply chains and affected key customers including GFG Alliance's Tasmania ferromanganese plant.

Production Recovery Targets Pre-Cyclone Output Levels

South32 Gemco manganese exports began with the loading of 56,606 tonnes aboard the Singapore-flagged Stenia Colossus on May 19th, bound for Tianjin, China according to marine analytics firm Kpler. A second shipment of 54,078 tonnes will depart on the Panamanian-flagged Loch Crinan on May 28th, demonstrating operational momentum recovery. These initial shipments mark the end of a 15-month export hiatus that severely impacted Australian manganese supply to Asian steel markets.

Meanwhile, South32 plans production ramping at Gemco's 6 million tonne annual nameplate capacity facility throughout the 2025-26 financial year. The company achieved 5.9 million tonnes production in 2022-23, the last complete year before Cyclone Megan disrupted operations. Northern Territory government projections indicate 5 million tonnes expected production over the coming year, though South32 has not released official 2025-26 guidance.

Customer Supply Chain Disruptions Highlight Market Dependencies

However, the extended Gemco shutdown created severe supply chain disruptions for downstream customers dependent on Australian manganese ore. GFG Alliance's Liberty Bell Bay ferromanganese plant in Tasmania moved to limited operations on May 19th due to manganese ore supply shortages. This operational reduction demonstrates the critical importance of Gemco's production for regional ferromanganese manufacturing capabilities.

Therefore, the export resumption addresses urgent supply needs across Asia-Pacific steel and ferroalloy markets that experienced significant manganese ore shortages during Gemco's closure. Chinese steel mills particularly depend on Australian manganese imports for steel production, making Gemco's recovery essential for regional supply chain stability. The mine's strategic location in Northern Territory provides efficient shipping access to major Asian industrial centers.

Infrastructure Recovery Enables Full Operational Restart

Furthermore, South32 completed extensive infrastructure repairs including export wharf reconstruction and comprehensive mine dewatering operations during January-March 2025. These recovery investments ensure sustainable long-term operations while improving resilience against future extreme weather events. The company's commitment to full production restoration demonstrates confidence in manganese market fundamentals and customer demand recovery.

As a result, Gemco's operational restart strengthens Australia's position as a critical manganese supplier to global steel industries while reducing supply chain vulnerabilities exposed during the extended shutdown. The successful recovery operations establish operational precedents for managing extreme weather impacts on mining infrastructure. Market participants welcome the supply restoration as global steel production continues recovering from pandemic-related disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The resumption of South32's Gemco manganese exports illustrates both the vulnerability of critical mineral supply chains to extreme weather events and the interconnected nature of global steel production networks. The 15-month disruption's impact on downstream ferromanganese producers like Liberty Bell Bay demonstrates how single-mine shutdowns can cascade through entire industrial sectors, highlighting the need for greater supply chain diversification and resilience planning in critical minerals markets.

India exports first low-grade manganese ore as Moil opens new trade channel

Manganese Ore

India exports first low-grade manganese ore as state-owned miner Moil ships its first cargo to Indonesia. The move, where India exports first low-grade manganese ore under a new State Trading Enterprise mandate, highlights New Delhi’s push to monetise surplus low-grade Mn fines. As India exports first low-grade manganese ore, it also signals a more active role in seaborne minerals markets.

Moil leads India’s first low-grade manganese ore export

Moil has executed India’s first low-grade manganese ore export through the port of Visakhapatnam. The inaugural consignment totalled 54,600t and sailed for Indonesia on 22 August. Under the State Trading Enterprise regime, Moil now controls all exports of manganese ore below 46pc grade.

This mandate centralises export decision-making for low-grade Mn ore in a single state-backed entity. Therefore Moil can aggregate domestic supply, coordinate pricing and negotiate offtake with overseas buyers. The new mechanism also connects Indian suppliers with international customers, improving transparency and logistics.

India exports first low-grade manganese ore at a time when many steelmakers prefer higher-grade feedstock. However, low-grade material remains attractive for specific processes, blending and cost-sensitive markets. Indonesia’s growing manganese and alloy demand provides a natural first destination for this trade.

Surplus low-grade Mn reserves drive export strategy

India holds large reserves of low-grade manganese ore that exceed domestic demand. Historically, these fines faced limited commercial outlets or were underutilised in domestic steel and alloy production. As a result, policymakers now see exports as a way to unlock stranded value and diversify mineral revenues.

By ensuring India exports first low-grade manganese ore through a structured channel, Moil can build a pricing and quality benchmark. Over time, repeat shipments could establish Indian-origin low-grade Mn as a recognised segment in Asian markets. Meanwhile, exports may help optimise mine plans by monetising materials previously considered marginal.

The state’s decision to use a dedicated trading enterprise also aims to avoid fragmented, opportunistic deals. A coordinated approach can support better freight optimisation, contract discipline and adherence to environmental and social standards. If successful, this model could be replicated for other surplus low-grade ores.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s first low-grade manganese export is small in global volume terms but big in signalling intent. If Moil can scale this trade while maintaining quality and reliability, India could emerge as a regular low-grade Mn supplier to Southeast Asia. Market participants should watch future tenders, destination diversity and pricing trends against African and Australian material.

India's Manganese Alloy Imports Surge, Prompting EU Trade Protection Measures

Manganese Alloy

Rising Indian Imports Disrupt European Manganese Market

India's manganese alloy exports to Europe have surged, reshaping market dynamics and triggering a safeguard investigation by the European Commission. In January-November 2020, India accounted for only 3% of EU ferro-manganese imports, but by 2024, this share skyrocketed to 28%, totaling 104,376 metric tons.

The silico-manganese market also saw a dramatic shift. India’s share of EU silico-manganese imports grew from 10% in 2020 to 29% in 2024, reaching 164,722 metric tons. Other countries, including Georgia and Zambia, also expanded their presence, filling gaps left by Ukraine’s production collapse due to conflict with Russia.

European Producers Struggle to Compete

European manganese alloy producers have faced declining exports amid India's rising market share. France, Slovakia, and Spain saw major drops in silico-manganese exports between 2020 and 2024. France’s exports fell 64%, while Slovakia and Spain recorded declines of 35% and 11%, respectively.

Similarly, EU ferro-manganese exports have weakened. France's shipments fell 28%, while Slovakia’s exports dropped 47%. These declines stem not only from rising Indian competition but also from weaker demand in the EU stainless steel industry.

EU Commission Launches Safeguard Investigation

To protect European manganese and silicon-alloy producers, the European Commission initiated a safeguard investigation on December 19, 2024. Possible outcomes include higher customs duties or import quotas.

European buyers have increased their purchases of Indian manganese alloys in anticipation of potential restrictions, driving Indian manganese alloy prices higher in January. Meanwhile, Norwegian producers, who supply 40% of ferro-manganese and 35% of silico-manganese to Europe, are expected to receive exemptions from trade measures.

Ukraine Reboots Silico-Manganese Exports in Q2 2024

Resumption After Halt

Ukraine resumed its silico-manganese exports in the second quarter of 2024, following a significant halt in the first quarter due to the closure of the Ukrainian ferro-alloy supply chain caused by ongoing conflict. This halt at the end of 2023 led to zero exports during the initial months of 2024.

Gradual Increase in Export Volumes

According to Ukrainian export data, the country’s silico-manganese exports surged from zero in Q1 to 22,081 tons in Q2. The rise was gradual, with April exports at 206 tons, May at 4,877 tons, and June seeing a substantial increase to 16,998 tons. Despite this rebound, exports remain significantly lower compared to previous operational levels, with Q2 exports down 83% year-on-year.

Challenges Ahead

Ukraine’s ferro-alloy industry, traditionally a significant European producer, is dominated by five major companies, including two manganese ore producers and three ferro-alloy plants. By the end of 2023, all five had ceased operations, leading to a sharp drop in exports. The Nikopol Ferro-alloy Plant and Zaporizhzhia Ferro-alloy Plant, part of the Privat Group, have capacities of 1.2 million tons per year and 400,000 tons per year, respectively. Although exports are resuming, traders do not expect a significant short-term impact on silico-manganese prices due to the limited quantities involved. The industry will continue to face pressure from high energy costs and a shortage of skilled labor due to the ongoing conflict with Russia.

Gabon Manganese Export Ban Takes Effect in 2029

Gabon Manganese Mining

Gabon announced a complete Gabon manganese export ban on unrefined ore starting January 2029. The world's second-largest manganese producer aims to boost domestic processing and industrial capacity. This transformative Gabon manganese export ban follows similar African resource nationalism strategies.

Major Impact on Global Manganese Supply Chains

Gabon produces 4.6 million tonnes annually, representing 25% of global manganese output. China and the US face significant supply disruptions from this policy change. Meanwhile, the US imported 63% of its manganese from Gabon last year. The ban threatens established supply chains for steel and battery industries worldwide.

French mining giant Eramet, through subsidiary Comilog, dominates Gabon's manganese sector. The company operates existing downstream facilities producing silico-manganese and manganese metal. However, current utilization remains low with only 18,000 tonnes exported in 2024. Comilog employs over 3,300 people locally, making workforce considerations critical.

African Resource Nationalism Accelerates

Several African nations now restrict raw material exports to capture value domestically. Guinea banned bauxite exports while Zimbabwe restricted lithium ore shipments recently. Furthermore, Mali and Tanzania implemented gold export restrictions this year. Therefore, the Gabon manganese export ban represents broader continental industrial ambitions.

President Brice Oligui Nguema emphasizes increased state revenues through downstream processing. Moreover, this strategy requires massive investment in new manganese alloy production capacity. As a result, international miners must develop processing plants or exit Gabon entirely. The five-year transition period allows stakeholders to adjust operations accordingly.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Gabon's 2029 manganese export ban creates immediate pressure on Western supply chains already strained by geopolitical tensions. With China controlling most manganese processing capacity globally, this move could paradoxically strengthen Beijing's market position unless Western nations rapidly develop alternative processing hubs. Eramet's underutilized facilities suggest the technical and economic challenges of African beneficiation remain substantial.

South32 Gemco Manganese Operations Face Cyclone Narelle Supply Risk

South32, Gemco Manganese

South32 Gemco manganese operations are facing renewed weather-related disruption risk as Cyclone Narelle approaches Groote Eylandt in Australia’s Northern Territory. The company is moving non-essential personnel offsite while monitoring the incoming system with local emergency authorities.

The precautionary move comes as Cyclone Narelle is forecast to pass Groote Eylandt on Saturday afternoon. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology expects the cyclone to reach category three strength by that time, bringing stronger wind and rain conditions to the island.

South32 Gemco manganese operations are important to the seaborne manganese ore market because Gemco is a major source of high-grade Australian ore. Any operational disruption could affect supply flows into China, where manganese ore demand is closely tied to steel and alloy production.

Groote Eylandt Weather Risk Returns After Cyclone Megan Disruption

Groote Eylandt has already shown how severe weather can affect manganese supply. South32 paused mining operations at Gemco for four months in March 2024 because of Cyclone Megan, and manganese exports from the site only resumed in May 2025.

That history makes the latest cyclone warning more significant for the market. Even if the current action is only precautionary, buyers and traders will watch closely for any damage to mining, haulage, port infrastructure, or export schedules.

South32 plans to produce 3.2 million tonnes of manganese at Gemco in July 2025-June 2026. Maintaining that output will be important for stabilizing supply after the previous weather-related disruption.

Manganese Ore Market Watches China Demand and Australian Supply

South32 Gemco manganese operations also sit at an important point in the pricing cycle. The company raised its March-delivery Australian 43pc lumpy manganese ore cif China price by $0.10/mtu to $5.20/mtu in late January, citing expectations for stronger Chinese demand after the lunar new year holidays.

Cyclone-related uncertainty could add another layer of support if the market sees a risk to Australian export availability. Manganese ore is essential for steelmaking through ferro-manganese and silico-manganese production, so supply interruptions can quickly influence alloy raw material sentiment.

For now, the key issue is whether Cyclone Narelle causes only a short safety response or a broader operational setback. The market will focus on site access, port conditions, and South32’s ability to maintain shipment schedules after the weather system passes.

The Metalnomist Commentary

South32’s latest move shows that manganese supply risk is increasingly shaped by weather resilience as much as mine capacity. For steel-linked raw materials, reliable logistics from vulnerable export hubs can become a pricing factor overnight.

Australia Critical Mineral Export Earnings Set to Rise on Manganese and Rare Earths

Australia, Critical Mineral

Australia critical mineral export earnings will rise as manganese and rare earths scale up. The Office of the Chief Economist expects stronger output and higher export value. Australia critical mineral export earnings could reach A$5.9bn by FY2026–27. Therefore, project finance and offtake activity should intensify across key supply chains.

Manganese growth drives the next leg of export value

Australian manganese exports will anchor the earnings uplift over the next two years. Manganese production could reach 3.87mn tonnes in FY2026–27. Meanwhile, export earnings from manganese could rise to A$2.7bn by FY2026–27. As a result, steel and battery intermediates will gain a larger non-China supply option.

Higher volume alone will not secure margins. However, miners can improve pricing power with consistent chemistry and logistics reliability. Producers will also compete for shipping slots and port capacity. Therefore, downstream partners will likely seek longer contracts and inventory buffers.

US–Australia financing support reshapes investment timing

Australia rare earths exports should also rise as capacity expands. Rare earth export earnings could reach A$410mn by FY2026–27. Meanwhile, US-backed financing linked to an October critical minerals deal supports new project commitments. As a result, developers can accelerate feasibility work, construction planning, and processing partnerships.

Execution risk remains the key variable. However, metallurgical complexity and separation capacity often slow rare earth ramp-ups. Companies that secure reagents, power, and skilled labor will scale faster. Therefore, integrated processing plans will attract the strongest capital support.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Australia is building a practical path toward higher-value critical minerals exports. However, earnings growth will depend on processing capacity, not just mined tonnes. The winners will pair secure finance with repeatable operating performance.

Metallised manganese pellets deal links GMnT and Scandinavian Steel

Manganese

Green Manganese Technologies signed a preliminary distribution deal with Scandinavian Steel for metallised manganese pellets. The agreement targets European steel buyers seeking stable inputs. Meanwhile, GMnT advances hydrometallurgical processing to make high-purity manganese from ores and industrial waste.

The companies plan a phased route to market. First, Scandinavian Steel will connect GMnT with European users for testing and qualification. As a result, buyers can validate metallised manganese pellets under real industrial conditions.

Once production scales, Scandinavian Steel will purchase up to 50,000 tonnes per year for exclusive European distribution. That volume could equal 5–6% of European Union manganese-based ferroalloy import demand. Therefore, the metallised manganese pellets plan signals a meaningful new supply option for the region.

China’s dominance keeps manganese metal markets exposed

Global manganese metal supply remains concentrated in China. This concentration links international availability to domestic demand shifts. Recently, a major Chinese buyer absorbed a large share of annual supply, tightening exports and lifting prices.

That volatility increases procurement risk for steel and battery materials. However, European buyers still need manganese units for alloying performance. As a result, traders and mills now prioritize diversification and contract visibility.

Decentralised manganese production could strengthen steel security

GMnT positions its technology as a decentralised alternative that uses domestic feedstocks, including waste streams. This approach could reduce exposure to shipping disruption and policy shocks. It could also support circular-economy goals in steelmaking.

Scandinavian Steel expects the model to help buyers manage geopolitical risk, said trading head Erik Eriksson. Meanwhile, product qualification will determine adoption speed and contract volumes. Therefore, the next milestone is performance validation that meets European metallurgical standards.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal highlights how “midstream innovation” now drives critical mineral resilience. However, scale-up and qualification will decide whether Europe treats manganese metal as strategic. Therefore, watch for long-term offtake structures and financing once pilot users convert.

Georgian Manganese Ends Underground Mining at Chiatura Amid Low Ore Grades and Mounting Losses

Georgian Manganese Mining

Strikes, falling silico-manganese prices, and financial strain force producer to scale back operations in Georgia.

Georgian Manganese, a key manganese alloy producer, has announced it will permanently halt underground mining at its Chiatura complex in Georgia. The decision follows an independent audit by DMT, a German consultancy, which found ore grades too low to process profitably.

The review cited “very high operating costs” and a continued slump in manganese concentrate prices, concluding that underground operations were economically unviable. Chiatura also includes open-pit mining, which remains under review.

Labor Disputes and Financial Pressures Escalate

Protests and strikes have plagued Chiatura since early 2023, with 70% of the mines affected before operations fully halted in November. The strike also forced the suspension of silico-manganese production at the Zestafoni smelter, a key facility for Georgian Manganese.

Chiatura Management (CMC), the operating contractor, failed to install cost-saving technology upgrades due to the unrest. During the shutdown, CMC continued paying workers, incurring loans worth 83 million lari ($29.9 million) to meet union obligations. These costs have now caused "colossal losses," according to CMC director Maxim Mazurenko.

US Exports Decline as Market Prices Fall

Georgia has long served as a major silico-manganese supplier to the United States, exporting 78,692 metric tonnes in 2023, or 22% of U.S. imports. However, shipments ceased in October, though some volumes still entered in November and January.

Meanwhile, spot prices for silico-manganese have fallen sharply to 56–60¢/lb, a 64% drop from the March 2022 peak of $1.50–1.70/lb, based on SUPERMETALPRICE. Prices remain in a tight band due to long-term contracts covering most U.S. steelmakers.

Georgian Manganese’s decision signals deeper challenges in the global manganese supply chain, especially for regions reliant on export-dependent alloy production.

US Bulk Alloy Imports Decline in 4Q 2024 Amid Global Supply Challenges

Silico-Manganese

Reduced shipments of ferro-alloys contribute to a 13% drop in bulk alloy imports.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, US imports of bulk alloys, including high-carbon ferro-chrome, silico-manganese, high-carbon ferro-manganese, and ferro-silicon, saw a notable decline. According to data from the US Commerce Department, total shipments dropped by 13% year-over-year, reaching 227,614 metric tonnes. This decrease reflects various challenges in global supply chains, including weather-related disruptions and production constraints in key export countries.

Surge in High-Carbon Ferro-Chrome Imports

Despite the overall decline, some specific alloys experienced significant shifts. High-carbon ferro-chrome shipments from Albania and Brazil saw substantial increases in the quarter. From just 25 tonnes last year, Albania's shipments surged to 14,948 tonnes, while Brazil's exports grew from zero to 8,997 tonnes. These gains helped partially offset the drops seen from other regions.

India’s Role in Silico-Manganese Imports

India played a critical role in boosting silico-manganese imports, with shipments to the US increasing by 15%, reaching 11,160 tonnes in the quarter. This rise in Indian exports helped balance declines from major suppliers like Georgia, Mexico, Australia, and South Africa. India's contribution to the overall import total for silico-manganese is a key development for the US alloy market.

Weather and Trade Issues Impact Other Imports

The drop in high-carbon ferro-manganese imports was particularly significant, falling by 45% due to weather-related events and production challenges in Malaysia and Australia. Additionally, the absence of Russian ferro-silicon from the US market further contributed to the year-over-year decline. The ongoing trade case targeting imports from Malaysia and Brazil also led to sharp decreases, with shipments from Malaysia dropping to zero and those from Brazil falling to 3,117 tonnes, down from 7,400 tonnes the previous year.

Full-Year Bulk Alloy Imports See Growth

Looking at the full year, total bulk alloy imports increased by 14% to 1.1 million tonnes, driven primarily by higher imports of high-carbon ferro-chrome and silico-manganese. Despite the quarterly decline, 2024 showed overall growth in bulk alloy imports compared to the previous year.

OM Holdings Increases FeSi Output Amid Si Metal Shift

OM Holdings

OM Holdings boosted ferro-silicon (FeSi) production in Q4 by converting silicon metal furnaces. However, manganese alloy output declined due to a furnace outage.

Production Shifts and Furnace Operations

OM Materials produced 48,061t of FeSi in Q4, an 18.3pc year-on-year increase. 2024's total FeSi output reached 190,517t, up 36.5pc from 2023. This increase resulted from switching two silicon metal furnaces to FeSi production due to weak silicon demand. At year-end, six FeSi furnaces and two silicon metal furnaces produced FeSi, while seven furnaces produced manganese alloys. One manganese alloy furnace restarted after a November outage.

Manganese Alloy and Ore Output Decline

Consequently, manganese alloy production fell 14pc to 72,769t in Q4. Manganese sinter ore production dropped 46.2pc to 23,204t. Full-year manganese alloy production rose 8pc to 317,013t. Sarawak's capacity, after furnace conversion, includes 120,000-126,000 t/yr of FeSi, 333,000-400,000 t/yr of manganese alloys, and 21,500-24,500 t/yr of silicon metal. The sinter plant can produce 250,000 t/yr of sinter ore.

Trading and Mining Developments

OM Materials traded 387,271t of ores and alloys in Q4, down from 514,757t last year, driven by lower manganese ore volumes. However, late-quarter market quotes showed signs of increase. The group trialed restarting its Bootu Creek manganese mine, aiming for 35pc Mn grades. Initial grades reached 30-33pc Mn. A second trial is planned this quarter. The ultra fines plant restart is delayed to Q2. Tshipi Borwa Manganese mine, where OM holds a stake, exported 683,090t in Q4, up from 624,681t last year. 2024's total exports increased 8.9pc to 3.5mn t.

Container Shortage Disrupts India's Manganese Alloy Exports

India's manganese alloy exporters are currently grappling with severe logistical hurdles due to a shortage of containers, escalating ocean freight rates, and worsening port congestion nationwide. These challenges have significantly impacted their profitability, compounded by declining alloy prices and increasing costs for both imported and domestic ore, in addition to surging freight charges.

In response to these difficulties, exporters have been compelled to redirect their shipments from eastern India to southern India over the past fortnight. Freight rates from eastern India to Europe and the US have surged dramatically, with costs for shipping to Rotterdam, Europe, rising by approximately $2,000 per container to $4,000 per container. Similarly, rates for shipments to Houston, US, have skyrocketed to $5,000 per container.

The severe port congestion has resulted in long queues of ships awaiting berths, causing significant delays in manganese alloy deliveries and complicating the finalization of export deals. The current delay for securing available containers is approximately 10-15 days.

In southern India, containers are more readily available. Consequently, some traders exporting from both Kolkata and Vizag ports have shifted their operations to Vizag, benefiting from shorter container waiting times. However, many exporters continue to struggle with dispatching products to Europe and the US due to the greater difficulty in securing container vessel availability for westbound shipments compared to those headed to Asia-Pacific countries.

According to customs data, India's manganese alloy exports declined by 8% to 537,748 tons in January-April this year, compared to 586,315 tons during the same period last year. Currently, European demand for Indian manganese alloy is subdued due to the summer lull and maintenance activities undertaken by some European consumers until late July. Market participants expect demand to rebound between late July and mid-August, with buyers adopting a cautious approach by booking cargoes only for immediate needs.

Manufacturers anticipate a decline in container freight rates to more manageable levels by late September to October. Meanwhile, the impact of container shortages on the ferro-chrome market, another commodity heavily reliant on imported raw materials and significant Indian exports, has been limited. This is attributed to subdued global stainless steel industry demand and restricted export opportunities.

Indian Ferro-Alloy Industry Faces Mounting Challenges Amid Global Uncertainty

Indian Ferro Alloy

The Indian ferro-alloy industry confronts severe headwinds as global tensions, escalating production costs, and declining export demand create a perfect storm of challenges. Despite chrome and manganese alloys from India remaining exempt from tariffs in most international markets, producers struggle with deteriorating market conditions and regulatory pressures that threaten operational viability.

Production Costs and Regulatory Burdens Squeeze Margins

Rising production costs severely impact Indian ferro-alloy manufacturers, particularly due to higher power tariffs in key regions like West Bengal. Consequently, producers must manage operational expenses with unprecedented precision to maintain profitability. Meanwhile, some alloy producers have strategically shifted capacity from ferro-chrome to manganese alloys, seeking higher margins amid challenging market conditions.

The Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) quality order requirements add another layer of complexity for Indian ferro-alloy producers. Administrative costs have surged following the inclusion of ferro-chrome, ferro-manganese, and silicon-manganese in the BIS quality order list. Therefore, producers face mounting pressure to complete registration before the November deadline, as manufacturing and distribution without proper certification will be prohibited from November 8th.

Export Markets Deteriorate as Global Demand Weakens

Export prospects for Indian ferro-alloy products have deteriorated significantly across key international markets. Demand for Indian ferro-chrome under long-term contracts has plummeted by an estimated 60-70% compared to last year, forcing many exporters to rely entirely on volatile spot demand. However, this shift exposes producers to greater market uncertainty and price volatility.

European markets present particularly acute challenges for Indian ferro-alloy exporters. The EU's pending safeguard investigation into manganese and silicon-based alloys, launched in December, creates substantial uncertainty for market participants. As a result, European appetite for Indian manganese alloys collapsed to just 2-3 containers in April, compared to India's 300,000 tonnes of manganese alloy exports to Europe in 2024.

Additionally, mounting container freight costs of $50-55 per tonne from India to Europe further constrain exporters' competitiveness. Expectations suggest freight rates will increase further in late May, compounding the challenges facing Indian ferro-alloy suppliers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Indian ferro-alloy industry's current struggles reflect broader global supply chain disruptions and trade policy uncertainties affecting critical mineral markets. The combination of regulatory compliance costs, weakening export demand, and rising logistics expenses suggests a prolonged adjustment period ahead for Indian producers seeking to maintain their competitive position in international markets.

China’s HBIS Raises October Manganese Alloy Tender Prices Amid Rising Steel Demand and Production Costs

HBIS

Hebei Iron and Steel (HBIS), one of China’s largest state-owned steel producers, has increased its October tender prices for manganese alloys, responding to higher steel output and rising production costs. The price hike reflects intensified demand for steel and growing costs of alloy feedstock.

HBIS’s initial October tender price for 12,000 tonnes of silico-manganese (65/17 grade) is set at 6,200 yuan per tonne (approximately $871/t) for delivery and acceptance bill payment, marking a 220 yuan/t increase from September. HBIS has also raised its purchase volume by 1,500 tonnes compared to the previous month. Industry negotiations with long-term alloy suppliers are ongoing.

Several alloy producers anticipate further price increases, projecting the silico-manganese bulk alloy price could reach 6,300 yuan/t as production costs have surged to 6,100-6,200 yuan/t due to more expensive ore feedstock.

Additionally, HBIS raised its October tender price for high-carbon ferro-manganese (65% grade) by 200 yuan/t to 5,900 yuan/t, with a purchase volume of 7,297 tonnes, up by 147 tonnes from September.

The surge in steel prices and demand—fueled by seaborne buyers—has led many mills to boost production since September, further supporting an uptrend in alloy feedstock prices. Data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) show that crude steel output from member mills rose by 1.3% in late September, averaging 2.01 million tonnes per day between 21-30 September. CISA’s data encompasses over 100 of China’s largest steel mills.

Steel prices soared at the end of September, boosted by the Chinese government’s economic stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts and a lowered reserve requirement ratio for banks. China’s steel exports also climbed significantly, rising 26% year-on-year to 10.15 million tonnes in September, driven by strong overseas demand and favorable export prices.

Recent assessments show the 65/17 silico-manganese alloy grade priced higher by 200 yuan/t, reaching 5,800-5,900 yuan/t ex-works as of mid-October. Despite spot deals at these elevated prices, some alloy producers offered between 6,000-6,200 yuan/t ex-works. Meanwhile, the high-carbon ferro-manganese 65% grade held steady at 6,500-6,700 yuan/t ex-works, though many buyers were reluctant to engage in spot purchases at these levels.

Most South African Mineral Exports to US Avoid Tariff Impact

South African Mineral Mining

PGMs, Gold, and Titanium Spared in Latest US Tariff Round

Most of South Africa’s mineral exports to the US, including platinum group metals (PGMs), have been exempted from new US tariffs. US President Donald Trump’s 2 April tariff announcement excluded PGMs, gold, manganese, titanium, chrome, and coal from the list of affected imports.

These exemptions are significant, as PGMs accounted for 76% of the R65.3 billion ($3.4 billion) in mineral and precious metal exports from South Africa to the US in 2024. However, iron ore and diamonds from South Africa will be subject to a 30% tariff, potentially straining trade ties and impacting specific sectors.

Auto Tariffs Threaten Downstream PGM Demand

A separate 25% tariff on US vehicle imports came into effect on 6 June, with auto parts tariffs set for 3 May. According to the Minerals Council South Africa (MCSA), these tariffs may reduce US auto demand, which in turn could lower PGM consumption.

PGMs—especially platinum, palladium, and rhodium—are essential in autocatalysts that reduce vehicle emissions. Lower car production would decrease catalyst demand, causing short-term price volatility in these critical metals.

Still, the MCSA remains optimistic about the long-term demand outlook for PGMs, citing structural demand drivers in clean mobility and hydrogen.

Limited Retaliation Options for South Africa

Despite the exemptions, broader trade tensions could still hurt South Africa’s mining sector. South Africa ships 7% of its total exports to the US, while accounting for just 0.25% of US imports—a disparity that limits its ability to retaliate.

Think tank Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies emphasized the need for diversification, urging South African exporters to find alternative markets. With the global economy under pressure from rising trade barriers, the ripple effect could dampen overall commodity demand and GDP growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The exemptions granted to South Africa’s key mineral exports show strategic prioritization by the US to maintain critical supply chains. Yet, the indirect consequences—especially in sectors like automotive and high-tech—may eventually flow back to impact even exempted metals. The situation reinforces the need for South Africa to accelerate market diversification and downstream value-add strategies in mining.

Posco Future M begins cathode exports to US

Posco Future M

Posco Future M begins cathode exports to US as it ships high-nickel NCM-A materials to Ultium Cells. The move uses self-produced precursors and strengthens North American EV supply chains. As a result, Posco Future M begins cathode exports to US with IRA-aligned feedstock and full upstream integration. This milestone confirms scale, quality, and localization readiness as Posco Future M begins cathode exports to US.

What shipped, from where, and to whom

Posco Future M dispatched high-nickel cathodes made with in-house precursors. Ultium Cells will use them for EV battery production. The shipment followed completion of its 45,000 t/yr precursor plant in Gwangyang. The facility started on 10 June, with first cargo on 26 July. Precursors of nickel, cobalt, and manganese combine with lithium at the Gwangyang cathode plant. The company targets consistent quality and cost control through vertical integration.

Why this matters for US battery supply chains

The delivery supports GM’s Ultium platform with non-Chinese nickel inputs. Posco Group converts nickel into high-purity nickel sulfate for CAM. Meanwhile, Posco Pilbara Lithium Solution supplies lithium from Australian spodumene. Posco Lithium Solution complements this with Argentine brine supply. These sources enhance IRA compliance and traceability for US-bound batteries. OEMs gain reduced risk, shorter timelines, and improved procurement flexibility.

Capacity outlook and localization pathway

Posco Future M and GM are building Ultium CAM in Bécancour, Quebec. The 30,000 t/yr cathode plant targets completion in 2026. Therefore, initial exports bridge near-term demand before local output ramps. The model mixes offshore precursor strength with regional CAM finishing. This approach helps stabilize costs and meet regional content rules. It also diversifies North American cathode supply beyond LFP.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Posco’s integrated precursor-to-cathode chain is a competitive advantage. Expect tighter OEM-supplier ties as IRA rules harden and Ultium volumes scale. Watch Bécancour’s CAM launch; it will set North America’s high-nickel baseline.

South Africa’s Mineral Exports to the US Mostly Exempt from Tariffs

South Africa Minerals

Key South African Minerals, Including PGMs, Escape New US Tariffs Amid Trade Tensions

South Africa’s mineral exports to the United States, including valuable platinum group metals (PGMs), have been largely exempted from the latest round of US import tariffs. President Donald Trump's announcement on April 2, 2025, introduced reciprocal tariffs on a variety of goods, but crucial mineral exports such as PGMs, gold, manganese, titanium, chrome, and coal will not be subject to additional duties. However, some South African exports, such as iron ore and diamonds, will face a 30% tariff.

Impact of Tariffs on South Africa’s Economy

In 2024, South Africa exported 65.3 billion rand ($3.4 billion) worth of mineral products and precious metals to the US, with PGMs accounting for 76% of the total value. Despite the tariff exclusions on key minerals, other sectors, particularly the automotive industry, are expected to face significant economic impacts. The Minerals Council South Africa (MCSA) has warned that the new tariffs on iron ore and diamonds will hurt the country’s economy, particularly its automotive manufacturing sector.

Additionally, a separate 25% tariff on all US imports of cars and trucks, which took effect on March 26, 2025, is expected to reduce demand for automobiles in the US. This, in turn, will affect PGMs, as platinum, palladium, and rhodium are critical for the production of autocatalysts used to reduce vehicle exhaust emissions. Slowing car sales will result in reduced demand for PGMs, leading to potential price volatility in the near term.

Long-Term Outlook for PGMs

Despite these short-term concerns, the MCSA remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for PGMs. Although current market conditions may cause fluctuations in prices, the demand for PGMs is expected to remain strong over time. However, the broader economic challenges posed by these tariffs—particularly their potential impact on global growth—are concerning for the entire South African mining industry.

South Africa exports 7% of its goods to the US, a relatively small share in terms of total US imports (0.25%). Despite this, the country has limited capacity to retaliate against these tariffs. Experts suggest that South African exporters will need to explore alternative markets and enhance collaborative efforts to mitigate the impact of these tariffs.

Zimbabwe to Ban Lithium Concentrate Exports from 2027

Zimbabwe lithium Mining

Government Push for Domestic Processing

Zimbabwe will impose a ban on lithium concentrate exports starting 1 January 2027, according to mines minister Winston Chitando. The policy follows a 2022 ban on raw ore exports and seeks to encourage investment in local processing facilities and battery material plants. Zimbabwe holds Africa’s largest lithium reserves, with Chinese firms already dominating its mining sector.

Two new plants, backed by Sinomine and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, are under construction and expected to begin operations in 2027. These facilities will produce lithium sulphate, a key intermediate that can be refined into battery-grade lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate.

Chinese Investment and Global Market Implications

Chinese companies remain committed to Zimbabwe’s lithium sector despite lithium prices falling nearly 90% since 2022. This long-term strategy reflects Beijing’s broader effort to secure critical minerals for its electric vehicle and energy storage industries. The upcoming export ban will strengthen Zimbabwe’s role in global lithium supply chains by shifting the country toward value-added production.

Zimbabwe’s policy aligns with a growing African trend of restricting raw mineral exports to promote domestic industrialization. For instance, Gabon recently announced a manganese ore export ban from 2029, while Guinea, Mali, Tanzania, and the DRC have implemented similar measures for bauxite, gold, and cobalt.

Strategic Positioning in the Global Battery Market

By enforcing the lithium concentrate export ban, Zimbabwe is positioning itself as a future hub for processed battery materials rather than a raw material supplier. This policy could attract further downstream investment while also reshaping trade flows, especially for EV and renewable energy supply chains. However, success will depend on whether domestic refining capacity can keep pace with rising demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zimbabwe’s lithium export ban signals a decisive shift toward resource nationalism and value-added production. For global supply chains, this move underscores Africa’s emerging role in shaping critical mineral strategies. Investors and downstream users must adapt to a future where raw materials are less available, but refined products become central to supply security.

EPA Supports Expansion of Woodie Manganese Mine in Western Australia

Consolidated Minerals

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of Western Australia has endorsed Consolidated Minerals' plan to expand its Woodie manganese mine, aiming to extend its operational life until 2031. This decision follows an in-depth evaluation of the company’s proposal, which seeks to secure the mine's productivity for an additional decade.

Environmental and Economic Impact

As part of the expansion, Consolidated Minerals intends to clear 2,340 hectares of native vegetation to accommodate new mining pits, waste rock dumps, storage facilities, and additional mining infrastructure. Despite the significant development, the mine’s annual ore production and processing capacity is set to remain steady, with a maximum output of 1.6 million tons per year, consistent with past averages of 500,000 tons of ore processed annually between 2010 and 2020. It is important to note that the mine had previously faced a temporary closure between 2016 and 2017.

The proposal was initially submitted to the EPA in early 2020, and after careful consideration, the agency has now formally backed the expansion plan. The public has until 23 December to appeal the decision, ensuring transparency and community involvement in the approval process.

Broader Implications for Trade

The expansion comes at a crucial time as Australian manganese ore exports to China have experienced a significant decline, falling 48% year-on-year as of September due to disruptions like Cyclone Megan. The extended life of the Woodie Woodie mine could help stabilize supply chains and reinforce Australia's position in the global manganese market.

South32 Maintains 2024-25 Production Guidance, Excluding Mozal Aluminium

South32

Diversified Miner Reports Stable Output Across Key Assets

South32 has reaffirmed its 2024-25 production guidance for most of its operations, excluding Mozal Aluminium in Mozambique due to transportation disruptions from civil unrest. The Australian-based miner continues to ramp up production across its aluminium, copper, nickel, zinc, and manganese operations despite regional challenges.

Mozal Aluminium Faces Uncertainty Amid Civil Unrest

South32’s Mozal Aluminium smelter produced 90,000 tonnes of aluminium in Q4 2024, marking a 2.3% increase from the previous quarter. However, ongoing violent protests in Mozambique have led to the withdrawal of production guidance. While production and exports remain operational, raw material transportation remains disrupted.

Aluminium and Alumina Production Remains Strong

• Brazil Aluminium (40% South32 ownership): Q4 2024 output increased 13% quarter-over-quarter to 34,000 tonnes. Production guidance remains 130,000 t/yr.
• Hillside Aluminium (South Africa, 100% ownership): Production remained steady at 182,000 tonnes, with guidance unchanged at 720,000 t/yr.
• Brazil Alumina (36% South32 ownership): Q4 2024 production rose 4.2% to 348,000 tonnes, with guidance steady at 1.35 million t/yr.
• Worsley Alumina (Western Australia, 86% ownership): Production surged 18% to 1 million tonnes after maintenance, with 2024-25 guidance at 3.75 million t/yr.

Copper, Zinc, Nickel, and Manganese Performance

• Sierra Gorda Copper Mine (Chile, 45% ownership): Payable copper production rose 10% to 24,300 tonnes due to higher grades and improved molybdenum recovery. Guidance remains 84,800 t/yr.
• Cannington Zinc Mine (Australia, 100% ownership): Zinc output surged 50% to 79,200 tonnes, driven by higher plant throughput and improved silver and lead grades. Guidance holds at 265,400 t/yr.
• Cerro Matoso Nickel Mine (Colombia, 99.9% ownership): Nickel production rose 15% to 9,900 tonnes with improved plant utilization. Guidance remains 35,000 t/yr.
• Gemco Manganese Mine (Australia, 60% ownership): Production resumed after Cyclone Megan, reaching 639,000 tonnes.
• Hotazel Manganese Mine (South Africa, 54.6% ownership): Output declined 19% to 485,000 tonnes due to a temporary shutdown at Wessels mine.

Green Aluminium Incentives and Industry Outlook

The Australian government has pledged A$2 billion in production credits to support aluminium producers transitioning to renewable energy by 2036. The Green Aluminium Production Credit will be available from 2028-29 for up to 10 years, though specific details remain undisclosed.

South32’s production stability, despite regional disruptions, positions it strongly within the evolving global metals market.