Trade Measures to Dominate Steel Industry in 2025: Focus on Imports and Global Overcapacity

China Steel Factory

Trade protection measures have been the focal point of the global steel industry throughout 2024, with little indication of this trend slowing down in 2025. Steel producers, industry associations, and governments worldwide are increasingly advocating for stronger import barriers to safeguard domestic markets and improve the competitiveness of their industries. In particular, European steel mills have been at the forefront of this movement, calling for more robust action to combat what they view as unfair imports and growing overcapacity in the global market.

European Steel Industry Pushes for Stronger Import Protection

Eurofer, the industry association for European steel manufacturers, has been particularly vocal about the need for stronger trade defence instruments. The association has urged the European Union to implement short-term emergency measures, including import tariffication, to curb the influx of low-cost steel products. Eurofer's stance has been largely driven by the EU’s ambitious decarbonisation goals, with the bloc committing billions of euros in investment. Steel producers argue that the EU's current measures are insufficient, particularly in light of increasing steel imports from countries with lower production costs and fewer environmental regulations.

Significant progress has already been made, with Eurofer helping secure changes to the EU’s safeguard system for key products like hot-rolled coils (HRC) and wire rods. Additionally, the EU anti-dumping investigation targeting several HRC suppliers has gained traction, and further investigations are planned on downstream steel products. As European steel suppliers continue to collect evidence of unfair trade practices, more scrutiny is expected on countries like China, India, and Vietnam.

The Impact of Global Overcapacity and Chinese Steel Exports

The issue of global steel overcapacity has also been a major concern. The OECD has raised alarms about the growing steel production capacity, projecting a 158 million tonnes per year increase in global capacity between 2024 and 2026. This expansion, however, comes at a time when global steel demand remains uncertain. Despite this, steel exports from non-OECD countries have been recovering since 2023, particularly from China, whose steel exports surged by 22.6% from January to November 2024.

China has also been exporting record volumes of semi-finished steel, despite the country’s preference for exporting higher-value products. As China continues to ramp up exports, it has attracted the attention of both European and global policymakers, leading to new protectionist measures targeting Chinese steel. This includes potential investigations and pending duties on Chinese steel, which could affect up to 15 million tonnes per year of exports.

Countries like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia are also seeing increases in steel exports, contributing to the global capacity glut. Turkey, a major market for Chinese steel, has already imposed duties on imports from China, India, Russia, and Japan in response to the increasing influx of steel from these regions. The EU is similarly considering the inclusion of Indonesia in its safeguard measures due to the country’s rising steel exports to Europe. From July to October 2024, Indonesia exported 494,650 tonnes of HRC to the EU, surpassing the previous half-year period, a trend that is expected to continue.

Investigations and Measures Targeting Global Steel Exporters

The growing export volumes from India and Vietnam, along with the rise in Indonesia’s exports to Europe, have prompted investigations into dumping practices in these countries. The EU has already initiated anti-dumping investigations on steel products from Egypt, Japan, India, and Vietnam, with the preliminary results of these investigations expected in March 2025. If these investigations lead to findings of unfair trade practices, retroactive duties could be applied, further tightening global trade conditions.

In response, producers are gearing up for a potential wave of new safeguard measures and anti-dumping duties. Countries that are impacted by these measures may look to retaliate, creating a complex global trade landscape for steel. As trade protectionism increases, the global steel market is expected to undergo significant shifts in the coming years.

EU Steel Industry Faces Key Policy Shifts: A Call for Concrete Measures

EU Steel

The mood among European policy makers regarding the steel industry has notably shifted, with increasing support for the sector’s future. According to Axel Eggert, director-general of Eurofer, the European steel industry association, policymakers are beginning to recognize the importance of addressing the growing challenges in global steel production. However, while this shift in mood is encouraging, Eggert emphasized that these positive words must be followed by tangible actions.

Rising Political Support for EU Steel Industry

Eggert pointed out that there is more political backing for the European steel sector, especially as lawmakers become increasingly aware of the massive overcapacity in global steel production, particularly CO2-intensive steel. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that global steel capacity will grow by 157 million tons over the next three years, which will likely negate the decarbonization efforts of the EU steel industry.

In response, the European Parliament has called for a European steel action plan, which has been embraced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. However, Eggert stressed that while these statements are promising, they must be followed by concrete measures to ensure the long-term sustainability of the industry.

Green Steel and Public Procurement as Key Measures

One of the critical measures that Eggert advocates for is the implementation of public procurement for green steel. With the EU's ambitious decarbonization targets — a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050 — Eggert emphasized that EU governments should lead by example. This means prioritizing green steel in public sector construction, vehicles, and other products, which would support European producers committed to decarbonizing their operations.

Global Overcapacity and Trade Distortions Impacting EU Steel

The steel industry crisis is largely driven by global overcapacity and low demand in Europe, exacerbated by high energy costs. Compounding this issue is the low-priced steel being exported by countries like China, Japan, and India, which depresses global markets. China’s exports, in particular, have been an issue for EU steel producers, as the country benefits from state subsidies, leading to significant trade distortions.

Eggert discussed how the EU has implemented anti-dumping measures on stainless steel from Indonesia, but Indonesia has circumvented these by exporting processed steel to third-party countries like Taiwan, Vietnam, and Turkey, which then re-export the products back to the EU. This tactic, along with the support from Chinese investments in Indonesia’s steel industry, has made Indonesia’s steel sector one of the largest globally.

EU Trade-Defense Measures: Need for Improvement

Eurofer has called for enhanced EU trade-defense measures to tackle issues such as dumping and excessive capacity from third countries. Eggert emphasized the need for improved steel safeguards and more effective enforcement of existing trade defense instruments. Currently, anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel are too low, undermining the efficacy of EU trade policies.

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Concerns

The EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) has been another point of contention. Third countries are already looking to export steel from their lowest CO2-emitting plants to avoid paying CBAM costs. Eggert advocated for including indirect CO2 emissions (Scope 2 emissions) in the CBAM, particularly for stainless steel, which is a major contributor to indirect emissions.

Scrap Export Concerns and India's Decarbonization Challenge

Finally, Eggert addressed concerns from India regarding the potential for a European export ban on scrap metal. While the EU does not currently have a scrap export ban, Eggert pointed out that India itself has export restrictions on scrap and needs to focus more on decarbonizing its domestic steel sector. He also warned that if India delays its decarbonization efforts until 2070, the EU will face a significant disadvantage in the global steel market.

EU Steel Demand Faces CBAM Risk Before 2028 Downstream Extension

EU Steel

EU steel demand could face significant pressure between 2026 and 2028 as carbon border adjustment costs apply to steel before they fully extend to downstream steel-consuming goods. European market participants warn that this timing gap could encourage imports of finished steel derivatives and weaken demand for EU-made steel.

The risk comes from the structure of CBAM implementation. Steel products will carry annual CBAM-related mark-ups before many downstream products are covered. As a result, imported finished goods with high steel content could become more competitive than goods manufactured inside the EU using CBAM-exposed steel.

EU steel demand is therefore exposed to a policy mismatch. CBAM aims to protect European industry from carbon leakage, but an uneven rollout could shift pressure from steel imports to finished product imports. That would create a new competitiveness problem for service centres, distributors, fabricators, machinery producers, vehicle parts makers, and appliance manufacturers.

Downstream Imports Could Undermine European Steel Consumption

Downstream steel-consuming goods are becoming a central concern for European industry. Product categories under discussion include car parts, specialised vehicle components, home appliances, machinery parts, and yellow goods. These sectors consume large volumes of steel and play a major role in sustaining regional industrial demand.

A proposed response is to create safeguards for selected downstream products before the 2028 CBAM expansion. The idea is to identify key HS codes for EU-manufactured products with high steel content and establish a quota system similar to existing steel safeguards.

This approach reflects a growing concern that steel protection alone may not protect the steel value chain. If downstream manufacturers lose competitiveness, EU steel demand could weaken even if direct steel imports fall. The strategic issue is not only steel trade, but the survival of manufacturing demand inside Europe.

Steel Safeguards and Weak Orders Add Pressure to the Market

The new version of EU steel safeguard measures is still expected to take effect in July. However, market participants remain concerned about World Trade Organisation compliance, especially as the EU negotiates free-trade agreements that may include country-specific quotas.

Market sentiment is already weak. European service centres reported soft order intake in February, with some seeing volumes 10-20pc lower than a year earlier. This points to sluggish industrial activity and limited confidence across the steel distribution chain.

Import reliance may also decline this year. Some service centres expect imported material to fall to around 20pc of flat steel use, compared with as much as 40pc in previous years. That shift may support EU mills, but it also reflects a more controlled and uncertain market environment rather than a broad recovery in demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU’s steel challenge is no longer only about protecting mills from imported coil. The real risk is demand leakage, where downstream production moves outside Europe before CBAM fully covers finished steel-intensive goods.

EUROFER Revises 2024 EU Steel Consumption Forecast Downwards

The European Steel Association (EUROFER) has revised its 2024 steel consumption forecast for the European Union, citing an array of economic challenges. These include the protracted period of elevated interest rates, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, resultant energy crises, inflation, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions in the Red Sea region due to the Israel-Palestine conflict.

In its recent "2024-2025 Economic and Steel Market Outlook" report, EUROFER predicts a modest 1.4% year-over-year increase in nominal steel consumption within the EU, reaching 127 million tons in 2024. This is a notable downward adjustment from the previously anticipated 3.2% increase to 130 million tons.

The report also recalibrates the 2025 forecast, lowering the expected growth from 5.6% to 4.1%, thereby predicting a total consumption of 133 million tons, down from the prior forecast of 137 million tons.

The first quarter of 2024 witnessed a 3.1% decline in EU nominal steel consumption year-over-year, totaling 31.9 million tons. This early-year contraction is expected to dampen the forecasted recovery for the remainder of the year. Significant uncertainties persist in steel consumption due to supply chain disruptions linked to the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, unprecedented surges in energy prices, and escalating production costs. Despite a gradual anticipated improvement towards the year's end, actual steel consumption is projected to remain below pre-pandemic levels.

EUROFER has also adjusted growth projections for steel demand industries downward. The Steel Weighted Industrial Production (SWIP) index fell by 1.9% in the first quarter of 2024, a stark contrast to the previous quarter's 0.5% rise. The decline in production across the EU’s steel-using sectors is attributed to the sustained impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, pervasive manufacturing weaknesses, global geopolitical tensions, and the long-term repercussions of the energy crisis.

The SWIP index decline highlights a persistent downturn in the construction, machinery, appliance, and metal product sectors, partially mitigated by continued growth in the automotive sector. The construction sector, which constitutes 35% of EU steel consumption, has been in recession since the third quarter of 2022, declining for seven consecutive quarters (-2.3%) through the first quarter of this year. High interest rates, labor shortages, and escalating material prices are expected to perpetuate the construction sector's downturn throughout the year.

The report states, "The positive trend in steel demand industries, which commenced post-pandemic, began to decelerate from the second half of 2022 due to rising energy costs and labor shortages following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continuing through the fourth quarter of last year. This year’s deteriorating economic and industrial outlook for the EU is driven by high inflation and resultant interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB), with particularly adverse effects from the prolonged construction sector recession, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and worsening manufacturing conditions due to high interest rates."

The report continues, "Amid persistent adverse factors, the growth rate for steel demand industries is expected to decline to -1.6% in 2024, down from the previous forecast of -1%, with a rebound to 2.3% anticipated in 2025."

Notwithstanding the lowered forecasts for steel consumption and demand industries, import volumes have risen. According to the report, EU steel imports, including semi-finished products, increased by 12% year-over-year in the first quarter, mirroring the previous quarter's 11.3% rise.

Axel Eggert, EUROFER's Secretary General, emphasized, "While the EU's steel demand industries face a protracted downturn due to various adverse factors, import market share has risen significantly. This jeopardizes both European steel production and the associated clean technology value chains, necessitating urgent action at the EU level. The European Commission must swiftly conclude a European Clean Industry Agreement focused on the steel sector."

CBAM to Add 15-25% Surcharge to EU Steel Import Costs Starting January 2026

EU Steel

The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will impose 15-25% surcharges on CBAM steel import costs when full implementation begins January 1, 2026, according to Euranimi analysis. The European Association of Non-Integrated Metal Importers & Distributors warned that these additional costs will vary significantly depending on product type and country of origin. Steel importers face substantial cost increases as CBAM steel import costs rise through carbon pricing mechanisms designed to protect EU domestic steel producers from unfair competition.

CBAM Calculation Formula Creates Variable Cost Impact Across Origins

The CBAM surcharge calculation uses a specific formula measuring the difference between embedded emissions and 97.5% of EU benchmark standards multiplied by emissions trading system (ETS) pricing. This methodology ensures that steel imports face carbon costs comparable to EU domestic production under the emissions trading system. Meanwhile, Euranimi recommends that suppliers introduce separate CBAM surcharge lines in commercial offers, similar to existing alloy surcharge practices in steel trading.

Market participants anticipate significant import pattern changes as CBAM implementation approaches, with potential steel import surges in the fourth quarter of 2025. Importers may accelerate purchases before January 2026 to avoid initial CBAM steel import costs and associated compliance complexities. However, steel imports could decline sharply after January as buyers adjust to higher costs and new administrative requirements.

Implementation Timeline Creates Uncertainty for Steel Trade

Euranimi collaborates with the European Commission to develop "manageable" CBAM implementation procedures that minimize trade disruption while achieving environmental objectives. The association requests June publication of temporary benchmarks and default values for 2026 imports to provide market clarity. As a result, transitional benchmarks should be less strict initially while default values require reasonable levels to manage compliance costs.

Steel importers face significant uncertainty because verified emission data from non-EU suppliers won't be available until late 2026 at the earliest. Default values will play crucial roles in managing CBAM steel import costs during this transition period without verified supplier data. Therefore, appropriate default value settings prevent excessive financial exposure from unforeseen corrections and compliance adjustments.

The CBAM implementation represents a fundamental shift in global steel trade dynamics, creating competitive advantages for low-carbon steel producers while penalizing high-emission suppliers. European steel importers must adapt business models to incorporate carbon costs into pricing strategies and supplier selection processes. Consequently, CBAM steel import costs will reshape trade flows and encourage global steel industry decarbonization efforts through market mechanisms.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The 15-25% CBAM surcharge on steel imports marks a pivotal moment in global trade policy, potentially reshaping steel supply chains as importers seek lower-carbon suppliers to minimize carbon border costs. This mechanism could accelerate global steel industry decarbonization by creating economic incentives for cleaner production technologies, though it also risks disrupting established trade relationships and creating competitive disadvantages for developing country steel producers lacking access to clean technology.

European Steel and Metals Action Plan could lift some steel prices by 30%, Acea warns

ACEA

The European Steel and Metals Action Plan could raise costs for Europe’s steel-using industries. The European Steel and Metals Action Plan could push certain specialised steel grades up by 30%, Acea said. Meanwhile, industry groups expect higher costs than the Commission’s average price estimate.

Manufacturing associations argue the plan tightens import rules too sharply. They expect the proposal to nearly halve import quotas and raise out-of-quota tariffs to 50%. As a result, they estimate €5bn–9bn per year in tariff costs if import volumes stay near 2024 levels.

Import safeguards tighten supply and amplify price risk for niche grades

Quota cuts usually hit specialised categories first. Automakers and machinery makers often rely on a narrow set of approved, high-grade steels. However, only a few global suppliers produce some of these grades at scale.

The plan also adds a “melt-and-pour” origin rule. This rule forces buyers to prove where steel was melted and poured. Therefore, firms face heavier compliance work and slower procurement cycles.

Downstream manufacturers warn of a policy stack effect

The policy stack raises the total cost burden beyond tariffs. CBAM compliance and the phase-out of free ETS allowances add additional cost pressure. As a result, downstream sectors fear a competitiveness hit versus producers outside Europe.

Industry groups also flag operational complexity for smaller firms. SMEs may lack the staff to manage origin documentation and quota administration. Meanwhile, associations urge policy makers to protect trade with close partners, including Switzerland.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The European Steel and Metals Action Plan may strengthen local mills, but it can also squeeze downstream margins fast. Policymakers should target circumvention without cutting access to specialised grades. A balanced design will decide whether Europe protects industry or prices it out.

Thyssenkrupp Steel Restructuring Deepens as Losses Hit First-Quarter Results

Thyssenkrupp

Thyssenkrupp steel restructuring has moved into a more expensive and more decisive phase. The German steelmaker reported a €334mn net loss in the first quarter of its 2025-26 financial year. Most of that damage came from €401mn in restructuring expenses tied to Steel Europe. As a result, Thyssenkrupp steel restructuring is now shaping both earnings and the company’s future direction.

The latest loss matters because it reflects more than weak market conditions. Thyssenkrupp linked the restructuring costs to its collective agreement with IG Metall reached in December 2025. That agreement followed a period of lower prices and weaker shipments. Therefore, Thyssenkrupp steel restructuring is now moving from planning into full financial impact.

Steel Europe’s operating backdrop remains difficult. Sales in the division fell 10pc year on year to €1.96bn in the October-December quarter. Shipments also slipped 4pc to 1.73mn t. Consequently, weak pricing and soft demand in key end-use sectors are still weighing on Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe.

Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe Faces Weak Demand but Stable Operating Priorities

Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe continues to face pressure from sluggish European steel demand. The company said softer conditions in its main customer industries hurt both pricing and revenue. That remains a central challenge for the business. As a result, Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe is still operating in a market that offers little margin relief.

There were, however, a few areas of stability. Deliveries to automotive customers and steel service centres improved during the quarter. Hot-rolled coil deliveries also rose to 562,000t from both the previous quarter and the same period a year earlier. Therefore, not every volume indicator moved lower inside Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe.

Lower raw material costs and efficiency measures helped offset part of the damage. But they were not enough to reverse the broader earnings pressure. That means cost control is helping, yet not solving the core problem. Meanwhile, European steel demand remains too weak to deliver a meaningful recovery on its own.

Duisburg Direct Reduction Plant and Potential Sale Show Two Paths at Once

The company is now pursuing two major strategic paths at the same time. Thyssenkrupp confirmed confidential negotiations with India’s Jindal Steel International over a possible sale of Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe. Due diligence is already under way. As a result, Thyssenkrupp steel restructuring is no longer only about cost cutting. It is also about ownership change.

At the same time, the group is continuing construction of its Duisburg direct reduction plant. That project is moving ahead despite regulatory uncertainty. The decision suggests Thyssenkrupp still sees green steel investment as part of its long-term industrial future. Therefore, the Duisburg direct reduction plant remains strategically important even as asset sales are considered.

The company also reiterated plans to sell its stake in HKM to Salzgitter from 1 June 2026. It also reminded the market that blast furnace no 9 at Duisburg was shut permanently last October. These moves show a business actively reshaping its production base. Consequently, Thyssenkrupp steel restructuring is now affecting assets, ownership, and technology all at once.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Thyssenkrupp’s quarter shows how hard it is to restructure steel in Europe while demand stays soft and decarbonisation costs keep rising. The most important signal is not the quarterly loss alone. It is that Thyssenkrupp is now redesigning its steel business through labour agreements, asset sales, and lower-carbon investment at the same time.

EU May Tighten Steel Safeguard in Response to Global Overcapacity

The European Commission

The European Commission is set to review its existing steel safeguard measures, possibly tightening them significantly due to persistent weak market conditions. This action comes as part of the Commission's annual review, which could be expedited in light of mounting global overcapacity. Sources suggest that the Commission may announce its decision as early as next week.

The current global overcapacity in steel production is placing additional strain on the European market, where demand for steel remains weak. As a result, industry insiders are urging the Commission to reconsider the planned 1% liberalization of the steel import quota. This adjustment would allow importers to secure a greater share of the European market, which is shrinking due to both supply overabundance and lackluster domestic demand.

The Commission is also expected to further tighten import volumes beyond the existing 15% cap on the "other countries" quota. Industry experts anticipate additional investigations into alleged dumping practices from countries such as Egypt, Japan, India, Vietnam, South Korea, and Indonesia. These investigations could potentially lead to higher tariffs or other protective measures for European steel producers.

Specifically, there are discussions regarding the inclusion of hot-rolled coil (HRC) from several countries, including Egypt, Japan, India, and Vietnam. Furthermore, the European Union could extend its scrutiny to Vietnamese hot-dip galvanized steel, South Korean and Indonesian plate steel, and cold-rolled coil from Taiwan. Additional investigations could also target other Asian countries selling HRC and downstream products.

European steel mills have long been advocating for stricter measures, claiming that the current safeguards are insufficient to protect the industry from the flood of cheaper imports. The impending review by the European Commission may result in a significant shift in the European Union's trade strategy for steel, with potential long-term effects on both domestic producers and foreign exporters.

EU CBAM Downstream Goods Expansion Targets Cars, Fridges and Components

EU CBAM

EU CBAM downstream goods coverage is set to expand from 1 January 2028 under a draft European Council compromise text. The proposal would apply the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to steel-intensive finished goods and components, including cars, washing machines, fridges and a wider range of downstream products.

The move marks a significant shift in Europe’s carbon trade policy. Until now, CBAM has focused mainly on basic materials and selected upstream products, but the new proposal would extend protection further along the industrial value chain.

EU CBAM downstream goods expansion directly addresses a long-standing concern in the steel market. Without downstream coverage, importers could bypass carbon costs by bringing in finished products or components instead of covered steel inputs.

Downstream Protection Becomes Central to Steel Competitiveness

Downstream protection has been strongly supported by parts of the European steel market, including distributors association Eurometal. The argument is straightforward: CBAM cannot protect European steel producers if foreign manufacturers can export carbon-intensive finished goods into the EU without equivalent carbon costs.

The proposed expansion would therefore widen the policy shield around European steel-intensive manufacturing. Cars, appliances, machinery parts and components all contain embedded steel, and their inclusion could reduce the risk of carbon leakage moving further down the value chain.

This matters for European industrial competitiveness. Steelmakers, processors, distributors and manufacturers are all exposed if carbon pricing raises domestic production costs while finished imports remain outside the mechanism.

Verification Capacity Remains a Key Implementation Risk

The draft text also points to possible agreements for mutual recognition of third-country accreditation bodies. This is designed to address a major implementation bottleneck: the limited number of recognised verification bodies able to carry out CBAM audits.

Only six verification bodies have so far been recognised, which may be insufficient for the number of steel mills and exporters seeking approval before the deadline. Without broader verification capacity, CBAM implementation could face delays, disputes and administrative pressure.

The European Parliament is also moving through its own process. Dutch centre-left member Mohammed Chahim has been appointed to draft the legal report, with an environment committee vote expected on 6 July and an indicative plenary vote scheduled for September. That process will shape parliament’s position before final negotiations with EU member states.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU CBAM downstream goods proposal shows that Brussels is moving from carbon accounting toward industrial border protection. If adopted, it could reshape trade flows for steel, appliances, automotive components and machinery by forcing carbon costs deeper into finished-product supply chains.

Eurofer Downgrades 2024 Steel Consumption Forecast Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Market Challenges

Eurofer

The European steel industry faces ongoing turbulence as Eurofer, the European Steel Association, has downgraded its 2024 steel consumption forecast. Instead of the previously expected 1.4% recovery, Eurofer now predicts a 1.8% contraction in apparent steel consumption for the year. This revision follows a combination of escalating geopolitical tensions, rising energy costs, and the continuation of a downtrend observed in recent quarters.

Revised Forecasts and Industry Outlook

Eurofer has also adjusted its forecast for the output of steel-using sectors, now anticipating a decline of 2.7%, down from the previously expected 1.6%. Despite these declines, the forecast for 2024 is less severe compared to last year, when apparent steel consumption fell by 6%. Looking ahead to 2025, Eurofer projects a 3.8% recovery in apparent consumption and a 1.6% increase in output from steel-using sectors. However, this expected rebound comes after consecutive annual declines, indicating that it reflects more of a recovery from a period of stagnation rather than a genuine improvement in demand.

Sector-Specific Challenges

Several key sectors that typically drive steel demand in Europe are facing significant headwinds. The automotive industry, a major consumer of flat steel, is grappling with the aggressive pricing strategies of Chinese automakers, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector. This competitive pressure has led Volkswagen, one of Europe’s largest car manufacturers, to announce the closure of at least three plants and lay off thousands of employees in Germany.

The challenges are not limited to the automotive sector. In the construction industry, a lack of investment, high production costs, and financing constraints are negatively impacting steel demand. Similarly, the white goods sector is also struggling with high production costs, which are expected to worsen once the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) comes into effect in 2026. While the CBAM will not fully cover downstream industries like white goods at first, its eventual extension is expected to raise steel prices within the EU, potentially affecting European white goods' competitiveness, particularly against imports from China.

Looking Ahead: Steel Consumption in 2025

Despite the setbacks in 2024, Eurofer remains cautiously optimistic about 2025, projecting a modest recovery. However, the road to recovery is complicated by external pressures, including geopolitical tensions and global market shifts. The full impact of the CBAM, combined with ongoing challenges in key industries like automotive and construction, will likely continue to shape the steel market in Europe over the coming years.

European Stainless Tube Trade Shifts as Policy, Imports and Data Centres Reshape Demand

European Stainless Steel

European stainless tube trade is entering a more selective phase as producers defend margins through higher-value applications, tighter specifications and regional supply advantages. The market remains stable, but it is no longer driven mainly by volume growth.

European stainless tube trade is being reshaped by three forces at once. Imports continue to pressure commodity and process pipe segments. Policy measures such as CBAM and revised safeguards are changing cost structures. At the same time, automotive exhaust demand is declining as electrification advances.

Speakers at SMR’s Stainless Steel Tube and Pipe Market Insights Day in Dusseldorf said Europe is behaving like a mature and cyclical market. Asia remains the main centre of stainless steel consumption and commodity production, while Europe depends more on technical applications, certification and regulatory positioning.

European stainless tube trade is therefore moving away from simple price competition. Producers are increasingly competing on quality, traceability, sustainability, lead times and the ability to serve complex end uses.

Italy-based Marcegaglia Specialties said traditional sectors such as construction, energy, oil and gas, automotive, water and food processing remain the backbone of demand. However, the next stage of competition will depend more on sustainability and product complexity than on basic market expansion.

CBAM and Import Pressure Are Regionalising Stainless Tube Supply

European stainless tube trade is becoming more regional because policy and geopolitics are increasing the value of local supply. CBAM, revised safeguard measures and wider instability are pushing buyers to look more carefully at origin, emissions, delivery risk and compliance.

European producers already operate inside the EU regulatory framework. This gives them an advantage in some higher-value applications where customers require reliable documentation, stable quality and shorter supply chains.

But the policy environment is not simple. Some industry speakers warned that CBAM could become more protectionist than environmental if it raises costs for European downstream processors without fully addressing import competition.

This concern is especially relevant for stainless tube makers. They buy input material under EU cost structures, but still compete with imported finished or semi-finished products in certain market segments.

OSTP chief executive Andrea Gatti argued that CBAM and revised tariff-rate quotas are creating a difficult environment for downstream processors. He said the measures can raise raw material costs for European producers while leaving import pressure unresolved in some product categories.

One concern is the way carbon steel and stainless steel products remain grouped in some quota categories. This can obscure the real level of import pressure in specific stainless segments.

The issue is most visible in process pipe. Overall import penetration in European welded stainless pipe may look moderate, but import pressure is much stronger in process pipe than in automotive or structural applications.

Some imported process pipe is arriving at prices close to European producers’ raw material costs. This creates a serious margin problem for EU producers, especially when they must meet higher regulatory, labour and energy costs.

Asian imports are particularly competitive in pipe and fittings made to ASTM specifications. Around 15-20% of the European market still requires ASTM-based products, often because older engineering standards and end-user specifications remain in place.

This creates an opening for Asian suppliers. Many have long experience producing ASTM-based products and can compete aggressively in segments where buyers focus mainly on price and basic compliance.

Asian producers are also becoming more capable of supplying European-standard material. However, some barriers remain. Hot-rolled feedstock availability, customer qualification and more complex technical requirements still protect parts of the European market.

CBAM adds another layer of uncertainty. Importers and buyers still lack full visibility on the actual carbon values that overseas suppliers will declare. Some emissions disclosures remain incomplete or unreliable.

This creates pricing uncertainty. If importers use default emissions values, CBAM costs may rise sharply. If suppliers provide certified actual data, costs may be lower. But the market does not yet know which overseas suppliers can verify emissions credibly.

For European producers, this uncertainty is both an opportunity and a risk. It may make some imports less attractive, but it also complicates raw material sourcing and customer negotiations.

The broader result is regionalisation. Buyers are increasingly weighing whether cheaper imported material is worth the compliance, delivery and emissions risk. European producers can benefit if they turn regulation into a trusted supply advantage.

However, they cannot rely on regulation alone. Imports will continue to pressure standard grades and process pipe where price remains decisive. Europe’s defence must therefore come from technical capability, service and qualification depth.

Automotive Decline and Data Centres Redefine Growth Applications

European stainless tube producers also face structural demand change in automotive applications. Exhaust-related stainless tube demand is declining as electric vehicle adoption reduces the long-term need for combustion engine systems.

German tubemaker Schoeller Werk said about 40% of its business is still linked to automotive. Around 95% of that automotive exposure is tied to combustion engine applications.

This creates a clear transition risk. Combustion engine exhaust systems have historically used stainless tube because of heat resistance, corrosion performance and durability. Electric vehicles remove much of that demand.

Industry speakers described this shift as irreversible, even if the speed varies by region. Combustion vehicles may remain relevant for some years, but the structural direction is clear.

Marcegaglia also described the shift away from combustion-engine vehicles as a trend that stainless tube producers must manage. The market cannot assume that traditional automotive exhaust demand will return.

This forces producers to find new growth areas. Data centres emerged as one of the clearest near-term opportunities during the Dusseldorf discussions.

Data centre stainless demand is growing because cooling systems are becoming more important. AI workloads, higher server density and larger hyperscale facilities require more advanced thermal management.

Stainless tubes can be used in cooling circuits, heat exchangers and wider water infrastructure. These applications often require corrosion resistance, reliability and long service life.

Gatti said the strongest opportunity may not only sit in outer water infrastructure. Inner cooling circuits also present growth potential as specifications increasingly exclude carbon steel and favour copper or stainless steel.

Copper’s high price is helping stainless steel compete. In some data centre applications, stainless can win substitution from copper on cost grounds while still meeting performance requirements.

This creates a valuable opening for European producers. Data centres are not only a volume market. They require quality, traceability, reliability and tight specifications, which fit Europe’s competitive strengths.

However, Asian competition remains a threat. If data centre projects are specified to ASTM standards, Asian suppliers may still compete strongly. This means European producers need early involvement in specifications and project qualification.

Other higher-value markets may also support growth. Specialist energy systems, premium process pipe, food processing, water treatment and industrial heat exchangers all require more complex tube products.

The key difference is that these markets reward performance rather than only price. European producers are better positioned when customers value certification, documentation, short lead times, sustainability and technical support.

This is why Europe’s competitive advantage increasingly lies in complexity. Producers cannot win every commodity segment against lower-cost imports. But they can defend and grow in applications where failure risk, qualification standards and technical requirements matter.

The next decade will likely reward producers that invest in advanced materials and difficult applications. This includes higher corrosion resistance, special dimensions, better surface quality, stronger traceability and lower-carbon documentation.

Policy could help if it is implemented carefully. CBAM and safeguards may support regional supply, but they must avoid damaging downstream processors through higher input costs or poorly designed quota structures.

The real test for Europe is execution. Producers must turn sustainability and regulation into commercial value, not only compliance costs. That means proving lower carbon intensity, shorter logistics chains and stronger product reliability.

European stainless tube trade will therefore become more segmented. Commodity and ASTM process pipe will remain import-sensitive. Automotive exhaust demand will decline. Data centres and complex industrial applications will become more important.

For producers, the strategy is clear. Europe must compete where technical standards, certification, sustainability and customer proximity matter most.

The Metalnomist Commentary

European stainless tube producers are being pushed out of low-margin commodity competition and into higher-specification markets. The winners will be companies that convert regulation, traceability and technical complexity into pricing power, especially in data centres, energy systems and premium process pipe.

Greenland Molybdenum Supply Deal with Cogne Targets European Steel Markets

Greenland

Greenland molybdenum supply deal negotiations advanced as Greenland Resources signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Italian specialty steel manufacturer Cogne Acciai Speciali. The potential Greenland molybdenum supply agreement covers ferro-molybdenum and molybdenum oxide sourced from the company's $820 million Malmbjerg project, positioning Greenland Resources to address European Union molybdenum supply security while building strategic partnerships across specialty steel manufacturing.

Malmbjerg Project Resources Support Long-Term Supply Commitments

Greenland molybdenum supply capabilities stem from substantial mineral reserves at the Malmbjerg project containing 245 million metric tonnes of molybdenum disulphide. The reserves maintain an average grade of 0.176% and are expected to yield 571 million pounds (259,000 tonnes) of contained molybdenum metal. These resource volumes position Malmbjerg to supply approximately 25% of European Union molybdenum demand.

Meanwhile, the project's strategic importance reflects the EU's position as the world's second-largest molybdenum consumer without domestic mining operations. This supply gap creates significant opportunities for Greenland Resources to establish long-term customer relationships with European manufacturers. The company also plans to market magnesium as a by-product, diversifying revenue streams while maximizing resource utilization efficiency.

Strategic Processing Partnership Enables Market Entry

However, the molybdenum supply chain requires sophisticated processing capabilities through Greenland Resources' tolling agreement with Molymet Belgium. The Belgian molybdenum converter will process concentrates from Malmbjerg into ferro-molybdenum and molybdenum oxide products suitable for specialty steel applications. This partnership arrangement provides access to established European processing infrastructure without requiring substantial capital investments.

Therefore, the Cogne agreement follows Greenland Resources' successful long-term contract with stainless steel producer Outokumpu for 8 million pounds annually of molybdenum oxide. The Outokumpu deal represents half of that company's annual molybdenum requirements, demonstrating market validation for Malmbjerg's production capacity. Multiple customer agreements reduce concentration risk while establishing predictable revenue foundations.

Government Approval Remains Critical for Project Development

Furthermore, Greenland Resources continues pursuing final exploitation license approval from the Greenland government following receipt of draft license revisions in April. Government approval represents the final regulatory hurdle before commencing mining activities at Malmbjerg. The licensing process reflects Greenland's careful approach to balancing resource development with environmental protection and community interests.

As a result, successful government approval would unlock substantial European molybdenum supply chain benefits while establishing Greenland as a strategic critical minerals producer. The project's scale and customer commitments demonstrate commercial viability that supports both Greenlandic economic development and European industrial supply security. Strategic partnerships with established processors and customers create integrated value chains from mining through end-use applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Greenland Resources' molybdenum supply agreements exemplify how emerging mining jurisdictions can address critical European industrial supply gaps through strategic partnerships and processing arrangements. The Malmbjerg project's potential to supply 25% of EU molybdenum demand represents a significant geopolitical shift toward Arctic resource development, particularly important as European manufacturers seek supply chain diversification away from traditional sources amid increasing trade tensions.

Outokumpu Pushes for Tighter EU Steel Safeguards

Outokumpu

Outokumpu is putting EU steel safeguards at the centre of Europe’s industrial and climate debate. The Finnish stainless producer argues that current EU steel safeguards are too weak in the face of Asian overcapacity, diverted imports and sluggish European demand. As a result, Outokumpu says stronger EU steel safeguards are now essential to protect strategic supply chains and the business case for green steel investment.

Outokumpu links safeguards to decarbonisation and strategic autonomy

Outokumpu warns that Europe faces a surge of low-priced Asian stainless imports just as demand remains weak. The company argues that US tariffs of 50pc on steel are pushing excess volumes away from the US and into the EU market. Therefore, it believes new EU steel safeguards must prevent Europe from becoming a dumping ground for surplus Asian stainless steel. The company frames stronger safeguards as vital for mobility, infrastructure, defence and clean-tech value chains.

Outokumpu also connects trade defence directly to climate policy and low-carbon steel investment. It highlights its own stainless footprint of 1.6kg CO₂e/kg, versus a global average near 7kg CO₂e/kg. That advantage relies on high scrap usage and low-carbon power, which also increase production costs. Without tougher EU steel safeguards, Outokumpu argues, higher-emission Asian material will undercut European producers and undermine decarbonisation.

A blueprint for stricter quotas and carbon-aware trade rules

Outokumpu has tabled a detailed proposal for the next safeguard regime after 2026. It wants global tariff-rate quotas with strict per-country limits based on low-demand years such as 2012-13. Under its plan, imports above quota would face a 50pc tariff, with origin defined by melt-and-pour to block circumvention. It also opposes any quota carry-over, which can create import surges at quarter-end and destabilise prices.

The company calls for regular reviews of quota levels and tariffs, plus an emergency mechanism for sudden demand shocks. That mechanism would allow the EU to react if steel demand rebounds or if geopolitical events reshape trade flows. Outokumpu says the goal is to restore sustainable capacity utilisation and profitability for European mills. It stresses that, if Asian production displaces European output, Europe’s carbon footprint will rise and valuable stainless scrap will remain under-used.

Outokumpu further warns of growing strategic dependence on Indonesia and China if Brussels fails to act. In its view, weaker safeguards risk eroding European melting capacity and hollowing out the region’s stainless value chain. That would leave downstream manufacturers more exposed to external shocks and politically driven export restrictions. Stronger EU steel safeguards, the company argues, are therefore not only about prices, but also about security of supply.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Outokumpu’s intervention shows how trade defence, scrap utilisation and decarbonisation are now tightly interconnected in stainless steel. Brussels will need to balance open markets with credible protection for low-carbon producers if it wants green steel investment to continue. How the next safeguard package is designed will shape Europe’s stainless landscape – and its climate credentials – for the next decade.

Aperam Stainless Steel Earnings Fall as Weak European Pricing Hits Margins

Aperam, Stainless Steel

Aperam stainless steel earnings fell sharply in 2025 as weak prices overwhelmed stable shipment volumes. The group’s adjusted Ebitda dropped in the fourth quarter and declined for the full year. Stainless steel prices remained under pressure across Europe. As a result, Aperam stainless steel earnings reflected margin compression rather than volume weakness.

The company shipped 2.287mn t across all divisions in 2025, broadly unchanged from 2024. However, net income collapsed to €9mn from €231mn. Lower margins, restructuring costs, and higher financing expenses weighed heavily on results. Therefore, stable shipments could not protect profitability.

European Stainless Steel Demand Remains the Main Pressure Point

European stainless steel demand remained subdued through the year. Aperam’s stainless and electrical steel shipments improved in the fourth quarter. However, price erosion more than offset that seasonal recovery. Consequently, adjusted Ebitda in the segment fell sharply.

Average stainless selling prices were 16pc lower year on year in the fourth quarter. Competitive import pressure also added stress to European operations. Low capacity utilisation made the situation worse. Therefore, stainless steel prices remain the key challenge for Aperam.

Aperam 2026 Outlook Depends on Cost Savings and Trade Defence

Aperam 2026 outlook looks more constructive, but recovery will likely be gradual. The company expects first-quarter Ebitda to improve from the fourth quarter. Cost efficiencies and early trade-defence benefits should provide support. As a result, margins may begin stabilising.

The company also launched Leadership Journey Phase 6. This programme targets €150mn of additional gains from 2026 to 2028. Meanwhile, European trade defence and CBAM-related changes may support the second half of 2026. Therefore, Aperam stainless steel earnings could improve if policy support meets real demand recovery.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aperam’s results show that European stainless producers still face a pricing problem, not a shipment problem. Cost cuts can help, but sustainable recovery needs stronger demand and better import discipline. The second half of 2026 may become the real test for margin recovery.

EU to Implement ‘Melt and Pour’ Rule in Steel Trade Defense

EU Steel

New origin rule targets duty evasion and strengthens trade protections

The European Commission will introduce a “melted and poured” clause as part of its steel and metals action plan, aimed at tightening trade defense measures across the EU steel sector. This clause will assign origin based on where steel was originally melted, regardless of later processing locations.

Steel Origin Rules Target Evasion via Minimal Processing

The move addresses growing concerns that foreign producers—especially in countries like China—circumvent EU tariffs through minimal downstream processing. For example, converting hot-rolled steel into hot-dip galvanised outside the EU currently allows for reclassification, bypassing existing anti-dumping duties.

With the new rule, such transformations will no longer alter origin, preventing manipulation and reinforcing fair-trade enforcement. According to a draft of the plan, this rule will clarify product origin and prevent exploitation of loopholes in trade regulations.

Broader Measures Target Steel Overcapacity and Carbon Leakage

In addition to the melt and pour clause, the European Commission plans to proactively launch investigations based on “threat of injury” instead of waiting for economic harm. The action plan also extends the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to include downstream steel products, such as finished or semi-finished components.

This change addresses the risk that producers may shift exports to downstream goods to avoid carbon taxes on raw materials. European steel service centers and distributors have demanded such protections to prevent unfair import competition and carbon leakage.

Trade groups like Eurofer have long requested these rules, especially as Chinese-origin steel continues entering the EU via indirect supply chains. A representative from a major steel trading firm called the new clause a "game changer" for the European market.

Aperam Stainless Steel Earnings Rise as European Demand Recovers

Aperam

Aperam stainless steel earnings improved in the first quarter as seasonal demand recovered in Europe and average selling prices strengthened. The Luxembourg-based stainless producer reported adjusted Ebitda of €90mn in January-March, up from €67mn in the previous quarter and €86mn a year earlier.

Aperam stainless steel earnings were supported by higher shipments, better utilisation and a more favourable pricing environment. Group shipments rose to 617,000t from 554,000t in the fourth quarter and 575,000t a year earlier.

Aperam stainless steel earnings also benefited from the company’s diversified business model. Stainless and electrical steel, services, alloys, recycling and downstream activities all contributed to a stronger start to the year.

The company described the result as its best first quarter in three years. It expects second-quarter adjusted Ebitda to be significantly higher if metal and product prices remain near current levels.

Stainless and Electrical Steel Recover From Late-2025 Weakness

Aperam’s stainless and electrical steel division showed the clearest improvement. Adjusted Ebitda rose to €35mn from €11mn in the fourth quarter and €28mn a year earlier.

Segment shipments increased by 3.6% from the previous quarter to 430,000t. European demand improved seasonally, although Brazilian shipments were lower.

Average steel selling prices rose by 10.3% from the fourth quarter to €2,200/t. Prices remained below the €2,417/t recorded a year earlier, but the quarterly increase helped restore margins.

The improvement suggests European stainless markets are recovering from a difficult end to 2025. Low capacity utilisation, import pressure and subdued consumption had weighed on producer earnings.

Higher utilisation helped the division in the first quarter. Positive valuation effects also supported earnings, showing how pricing momentum can lift stainless producers when inventories and product values move favourably.

Aperam’s outlook also reflects a stronger European trade policy backdrop. Trade defence regulation could give domestic producers more protection against import pressure, especially if demand continues to recover.

Downstream Services, Alloys and Recycling Strengthen the Value Chain

Aperam’s services and solutions segment also improved. Adjusted Ebitda rose to €20mn from €7mn in the fourth quarter and €13mn a year earlier.

Shipments increased to 191,000t from 159,000t in the previous quarter. Average selling prices rose by 3.7% to €2,733/t, reflecting better downstream demand.

The alloys and specialties division generated adjusted Ebitda of €27mn. This was higher than €22mn in the fourth quarter, although slightly below the €29mn reported a year earlier.

Shipments in alloys and specialties were stable at 16,000t. Average selling prices declined by 3.1% to €15,846/t, but seasonal demand helped offset higher maintenance costs.

Aperam strengthened this higher-value position after the quarter by acquiring Magnetec Group. The acquisition adds nanocrystalline soft magnetic components and expands the company’s reach into electrical engineering and electronics markets.

The recycling and renewables segment showed higher activity but lower earnings. Shipments rose by 23% to 357,000t, while sales increased to €431mn.

Adjusted Ebitda in recycling and renewables fell to €23mn from €32mn. The fourth quarter had benefited from unusually strong year-end valuation effects, making the comparison difficult.

The recycling business remains strategically important. Aperam’s scrap integration gives it some protection against volatility in nickel, ferro-alloys and stainless scrap prices.

This matters because stainless steel production depends heavily on raw material cost control. Integrated scrap flows can improve flexibility when alloying metals and scrap markets become volatile.

Aperam’s first-quarter result therefore points to more than a cyclical recovery. It shows that stainless producers with downstream services, alloy exposure and recycling integration can defend earnings better when European demand improves.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aperam’s first quarter shows that European stainless steel is recovering, but not evenly. The strongest signal is the value-chain effect: producers with scrap integration, downstream services and specialty alloy exposure are better placed than those relying only on commodity stainless volumes.

Metallised manganese pellets deal links GMnT and Scandinavian Steel

Manganese

Green Manganese Technologies signed a preliminary distribution deal with Scandinavian Steel for metallised manganese pellets. The agreement targets European steel buyers seeking stable inputs. Meanwhile, GMnT advances hydrometallurgical processing to make high-purity manganese from ores and industrial waste.

The companies plan a phased route to market. First, Scandinavian Steel will connect GMnT with European users for testing and qualification. As a result, buyers can validate metallised manganese pellets under real industrial conditions.

Once production scales, Scandinavian Steel will purchase up to 50,000 tonnes per year for exclusive European distribution. That volume could equal 5–6% of European Union manganese-based ferroalloy import demand. Therefore, the metallised manganese pellets plan signals a meaningful new supply option for the region.

China’s dominance keeps manganese metal markets exposed

Global manganese metal supply remains concentrated in China. This concentration links international availability to domestic demand shifts. Recently, a major Chinese buyer absorbed a large share of annual supply, tightening exports and lifting prices.

That volatility increases procurement risk for steel and battery materials. However, European buyers still need manganese units for alloying performance. As a result, traders and mills now prioritize diversification and contract visibility.

Decentralised manganese production could strengthen steel security

GMnT positions its technology as a decentralised alternative that uses domestic feedstocks, including waste streams. This approach could reduce exposure to shipping disruption and policy shocks. It could also support circular-economy goals in steelmaking.

Scandinavian Steel expects the model to help buyers manage geopolitical risk, said trading head Erik Eriksson. Meanwhile, product qualification will determine adoption speed and contract volumes. Therefore, the next milestone is performance validation that meets European metallurgical standards.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal highlights how “midstream innovation” now drives critical mineral resilience. However, scale-up and qualification will decide whether Europe treats manganese metal as strategic. Therefore, watch for long-term offtake structures and financing once pilot users convert.

EU Steel Import Proposal Freezes Trade and Deepens Market Divide

EU steel

The EU steel import proposal has pushed the European steel market into a new standstill as stakeholders reassess risk and supply. Producers see the EU steel import proposal as a long-awaited shield against global overcapacity and unfairly priced imports. However, buyers and downstream manufacturers warn that the same EU steel import proposal could choke critical inflows, push prices higher and erode competitiveness just as demand remains fragile.

Buyers fear a ‘steel clamp’ on downstream manufacturing

Assofermet describes the new regime as a “steel clamp” on distributors and processors that depend on non-EU material to fill gaps. It argues that the 50pc out-of-quota duty and deep quota cuts could effectively shut many import routes and destabilise supply. As a result, downstream steel users face higher costs, thinner margins and greater difficulty competing in global export markets. European automakers share similar concerns. Acea notes that even though 90pc of their steel is sourced domestically, the remaining imported grades are essential for safety-critical and advanced components. However, the group warns that sharply lower quotas and a 50pc duty will remove an important pressure valve for a market already stretched by energy costs and decarbonisation demands. Acea also criticises the melt-and-pour origin rule, arguing that it will add heavy administrative load to complex automotive supply chains without clear proportional benefits.

Producers back tighter controls to restore utilisation and independence

In contrast, Eurofer hails the proposal as a “major leap forward” in defending EU steel from low-priced, high-volume imports. The association points to quota breaches “by triple digits in just two days” under current rules as proof that existing safeguards are too loose. Therefore, Eurofer sees the new tariff-rate quota structure as a way to maintain fair import access while preventing destabilising surges. The ultimate objective is to lift plant utilisation from unsustainable levels around 65pc back towards 80-85pc, which is vital for viability and decarbonisation investment. Eurofer also backs the melt-and-pour clause to improve traceability and deter circumvention via third countries, and wants future coverage extended to steel derivatives. Meanwhile, day-to-day trading has slowed sharply as mills, traders and buyers wait for clarity on timelines and country allocations. Import activity is likely to remain subdued until the proposal passes the EU’s legislative process and implementation details become clearer, leaving the market in limbo.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU steel import proposal underscores a widening policy divide between protecting primary production and safeguarding downstream competitiveness. If design and implementation lean too far toward insulation, the risk is a tighter, more expensive steel market that accelerates deindustrialisation rather than preventing it. The eventual outcome will hinge on how Brussels balances utilisation targets with the real needs of processors, automakers and exporters across the EU value chain.

EPCG divests Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe stake as Jindal bid reshapes future

Thyssenkrupp

Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe stake negotiations have shifted sharply as EPCG exits and Jindal emerges as the preferred partner. The Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe stake will now likely anchor a new strategic direction focused on low-emission steel. As a result, the evolving ownership of the Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe stake will influence Europe’s decarbonisation trajectory and regional steel competition.

EPCG steps aside to clear path for Jindal Steel

EPCG agreed to divest its 20pc holding in Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe and withdraw from all joint-venture talks. The investment firm will return its Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe stake and receive full reimbursement of the purchase price. This move reflects Thyssenkrupp’s decision to concentrate negotiations on a single strategic bidder.

Previously, EPCG had planned to lift its stake from 20pc to 50pc and form a 50:50 joint venture. However, the situation changed once Indian producer Jindal Steel submitted an indicative bid for the business. Therefore, Thyssenkrupp is now prioritising a potential deal that couples ownership change with major green-steel investment.

Jindal promises decarbonised steel platform in Europe

Jindal Steel’s bid includes a commitment to complete the DRI project in Duisburg and add new EAF capacity. The group has signalled a financial commitment of more than €2bn to build this low-emission production base. Although the offer remains non-binding, Jindal says it aims to transform the company into Europe’s largest integrated low-emission steelmaker.

This pathway would align Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe with EU decarbonisation policy and future carbon cost pressures. At the same time, Thyssenkrupp is also exploring the sale of its 50pc stake in HKM, further reshaping its steel portfolio. Together, these moves point to a deep restructuring of German steel assets and ownership.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This pivot from EPCG to Jindal underlines how strategic buyers now link ownership with decarbonisation capital. For European steel, the key question is whether promised DRI and EAF investments materialise fast enough to preserve competitiveness. If executed, Jindal’s plan could turn Thyssenkrupp into a flagship low-emission hub, but integration and policy risks remain significant.

Outokumpu Europe Loss Highlights the Pressure on Stainless Steel Margins

Outokumpu

Outokumpu Europe loss became the defining feature of the group’s 2025 performance. The Finnish stainless steel producer reported weaker deliveries, lower sales, and softer earnings for the year. Europe remained the main drag, while the Americas and ferro-chrome divisions provided support. As a result, Outokumpu Europe loss shows how difficult the regional stainless market remains.

The company’s full-year stainless steel deliveries fell 2.3pc to 1.751mn t. Group sales dropped nearly 8pc to €5.47bn as realized prices weakened in both Europe and the Americas. Adjusted Ebitda slipped to €167mn from €177mn in 2024. Therefore, Outokumpu Europe loss reflects both weaker pricing and a more challenging operating environment.

Fourth-quarter performance was even weaker. Stainless steel deliveries sank 13.5pc to 365,000t, hurt by soft demand and temporary disruption from a new ERP rollout. That rollout affected supply-chain planning in Europe during the quarter. Consequently, operational execution added to already fragile market conditions.

European Stainless Steel Demand Remains the Core Problem

European stainless steel demand remains the biggest weakness in Outokumpu’s portfolio. The company’s European business swung to an adjusted Ebitda loss of €46mn in 2025, compared with a €58mn profit in 2024. Deliveries in Europe fell 6pc to 1.148mn t, while realized prices dropped sharply. As a result, Outokumpu Europe loss was driven by both lower volumes and thinner margins.

The fourth quarter showed even deeper stress. Adjusted Ebitda in Europe deteriorated to negative €56mn, worse than the negative €32mn recorded a year earlier. Deliveries in the region dropped 23pc year on year to 223,000t. Therefore, European stainless steel demand remains too weak to support profitable utilization.

Outokumpu is responding with restructuring. The company is targeting €100mn of structural annual cost savings by the end of 2027, mainly in Europe. It also booked €34mn of restructuring costs in the fourth quarter tied to personnel reductions. Meanwhile, pricing and capacity utilization continue to weigh on margins across the region.

Ferro-Chrome Earnings and the Americas Help Offset the Weakness

Ferro-chrome earnings and the Americas business helped prevent an even weaker group result. In the Americas, adjusted Ebitda rose to €102mn from €59mn in 2024. Deliveries increased 4.36pc to 622,000t as some customers shifted toward domestic suppliers during tariff changes. As a result, the Americas became the clearest positive area in the group.

The ferro-chrome division also delivered another solid year. Adjusted Ebitda rose to €138mn from €106mn, marking a third consecutive annual improvement. Deliveries increased 6pc to 395,000t, supported by stronger external demand and lower variable costs. Therefore, ferro-chrome earnings remain one of the company’s most reliable profit supports.

Outokumpu also continues to position itself for a lower-carbon future. The company confirmed a $45mn investment in a US pilot plant for low-CO₂ chromium metal and enriched ferro-chrome technology. Management also believes CBAM could improve its relative competitiveness because of its lower carbon footprint. However, management still says demand in Europe and North America remains subdued and recovery evidence is limited.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Outokumpu’s results show a familiar European steel problem: cost actions and regulation can help, but weak demand and price pressure still dominate the near term. The stronger Americas and ferro-chrome divisions give the company breathing room, yet Europe remains the business that will decide whether recovery becomes real in 2026.