EUROFER Revises 2024 EU Steel Consumption Forecast Downwards

The European Steel Association (EUROFER) has revised its 2024 steel consumption forecast for the European Union, citing an array of economic challenges. These include the protracted period of elevated interest rates, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, resultant energy crises, inflation, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions in the Red Sea region due to the Israel-Palestine conflict.

In its recent "2024-2025 Economic and Steel Market Outlook" report, EUROFER predicts a modest 1.4% year-over-year increase in nominal steel consumption within the EU, reaching 127 million tons in 2024. This is a notable downward adjustment from the previously anticipated 3.2% increase to 130 million tons.

The report also recalibrates the 2025 forecast, lowering the expected growth from 5.6% to 4.1%, thereby predicting a total consumption of 133 million tons, down from the prior forecast of 137 million tons.

The first quarter of 2024 witnessed a 3.1% decline in EU nominal steel consumption year-over-year, totaling 31.9 million tons. This early-year contraction is expected to dampen the forecasted recovery for the remainder of the year. Significant uncertainties persist in steel consumption due to supply chain disruptions linked to the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, unprecedented surges in energy prices, and escalating production costs. Despite a gradual anticipated improvement towards the year's end, actual steel consumption is projected to remain below pre-pandemic levels.

EUROFER has also adjusted growth projections for steel demand industries downward. The Steel Weighted Industrial Production (SWIP) index fell by 1.9% in the first quarter of 2024, a stark contrast to the previous quarter's 0.5% rise. The decline in production across the EU’s steel-using sectors is attributed to the sustained impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, pervasive manufacturing weaknesses, global geopolitical tensions, and the long-term repercussions of the energy crisis.

The SWIP index decline highlights a persistent downturn in the construction, machinery, appliance, and metal product sectors, partially mitigated by continued growth in the automotive sector. The construction sector, which constitutes 35% of EU steel consumption, has been in recession since the third quarter of 2022, declining for seven consecutive quarters (-2.3%) through the first quarter of this year. High interest rates, labor shortages, and escalating material prices are expected to perpetuate the construction sector's downturn throughout the year.

The report states, "The positive trend in steel demand industries, which commenced post-pandemic, began to decelerate from the second half of 2022 due to rising energy costs and labor shortages following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continuing through the fourth quarter of last year. This year’s deteriorating economic and industrial outlook for the EU is driven by high inflation and resultant interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB), with particularly adverse effects from the prolonged construction sector recession, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and worsening manufacturing conditions due to high interest rates."

The report continues, "Amid persistent adverse factors, the growth rate for steel demand industries is expected to decline to -1.6% in 2024, down from the previous forecast of -1%, with a rebound to 2.3% anticipated in 2025."

Notwithstanding the lowered forecasts for steel consumption and demand industries, import volumes have risen. According to the report, EU steel imports, including semi-finished products, increased by 12% year-over-year in the first quarter, mirroring the previous quarter's 11.3% rise.

Axel Eggert, EUROFER's Secretary General, emphasized, "While the EU's steel demand industries face a protracted downturn due to various adverse factors, import market share has risen significantly. This jeopardizes both European steel production and the associated clean technology value chains, necessitating urgent action at the EU level. The European Commission must swiftly conclude a European Clean Industry Agreement focused on the steel sector."

EU Prepares Countermeasures Against U.S. Import Tariffs

U.S. Tariffs

The European Union is finalizing a series of countermeasures in response to the U.S.'s decision to impose a 20% tariff on imports, effective April 9. These tariffs are in addition to the existing duties on various goods, particularly steel and aluminum, which have already been heavily impacted by U.S. trade policies. The European Commission is working on a first set of responses, and further actions may be introduced depending on how the tariffs affect EU industries.

EU's Strong Stance Against U.S. Tariffs

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the EU's firm position on combating what it perceives as unfair trade practices. Von der Leyen stated that Europe will not accept "dumping" in its markets, referring to the practice of selling products at artificially low prices. The EU’s commitment to protecting its markets from global overcapacity remains a key aspect of its response. Von der Leyen also expressed disappointment, noting that many Europeans feel let down by their “oldest ally” – a reference to the U.S.

Impact on Non-Ferrous Metals, Energy, and Minerals

The U.S. tariffs, set to begin on April 9, will apply to most foreign imports, with some key exceptions. Energy products, as well as various minerals, including non-ferrous metals, are exempt from the new tariffs. Additionally, oil products, base oils, coal, and some fertilizers and chemicals will not be subject to the new duties. However, the tariff will still target steel, aluminum, and automobiles, industries that have already been under the strain of separate, earlier tariffs.

A Changing Global Trade Landscape

These tariffs are expected to have significant effects on global trade, particularly in sectors that rely heavily on international imports and exports. With many European industries vulnerable to the impact of these tariffs, the EU is preparing to take action to mitigate any economic fallout. The bloc is closely monitoring indirect effects, which could involve shifts in trade patterns and increased pressure on affected sectors.

Conclusion: Europe's Preparedness in a Trade Conflict

As the EU finalizes its countermeasures, the bloc is determined to protect its markets and industries from the negative effects of U.S. tariffs. Although the initial measures focus on steel and aluminum, the broader scope of U.S. tariff policies could continue to challenge global trade dynamics. The EU’s response will likely shape future trade relations between Europe and the U.S. in the coming months.

Ferroglobe Silicon Shipments Fall as European Plants Face Import Pressure

Ferroglobe

Ferroglobe silicon shipments fell in the first quarter after the company suspended production across its European silicon metal plants in October. The decline shows how weak demand and low-priced imports are reshaping Europe’s silicon metal market.

Ferroglobe silicon shipments dropped by 15.9% year on year to 30,533t in January-March. The company later restarted one of two furnaces at its Anglefort plant in France to maintain an EU operating presence.

Ferroglobe silicon shipments remain under pressure because European production costs are still struggling to compete against lower-cost third-country imports. The company warned that the current market structure is no longer viable during a prolonged period of depressed demand.

The issue is strategically important because silicon metal supports aluminium alloys, silicones, solar materials, semiconductors and industrial chemicals. If European smelting capacity continues to close, the region’s downstream industries will become more dependent on imported feedstock.

European Silicon Metal Faces Low-Cost Import Pressure

Ferroglobe said the European silicon metal market remains under pressure from China and Angola. Angola has emerged as a faster-growing supplier into the EU, increasing its market share during the first two months of 2026.

Angola supplied 993t of silicon metal to the EU in February, up by around two-thirds from a year earlier. Its EU market share more than doubled to 3.3% in January-February from 1.5% a year earlier.

This matters because even modest import share gains can influence pricing when demand is weak. European producers with higher energy and operating costs have limited room to absorb lower selling prices.

Ferroglobe has called for the EU to introduce anti-dumping duties on certain third-country suppliers selling at low prices into the bloc. The company made the request after the European Commission excluded silicon metal from last year’s safeguard investigation.

The policy question is now becoming more urgent. Europe wants strategic materials security, but it also needs trade tools that keep domestic production viable when imports undercut regional cost structures.

Without stronger protection or demand recovery, European silicon metal output could remain constrained. That would weaken the region’s ability to support aluminium, chemicals, solar and advanced manufacturing supply chains from local feedstock.

Ferro-Alloy Sales Offset Silicon Weakness

Ferroglobe’s broader first-quarter performance was supported by stronger silicon-based and manganese-based alloy shipments. This helped offset weaker silicon metal volumes.

Shipments of silicon-based alloys rose by 41.6% year on year to 60,674t. The increase was driven by stronger US demand for ferro-silicon.

However, average selling prices for silicon-based alloys fell by 4.9% to $2,016/t. Competitive conditions in the US and South Africa limited pricing power despite stronger volumes.

Manganese-based alloy sales also improved sharply. Shipments rose by 27.5% to 85,743t, supported by recently implemented safeguard measures.

The average selling price for manganese-based alloys increased by 12.8% to $1,250/t because of higher European prices. This shows how trade measures can directly support pricing when regional supply protection is in place.

Ferroglobe’s total sales rose by 13.2% year on year to $347.7mn. The increase came from higher silicon-based and manganese-based alloy volumes, along with stronger manganese alloy pricing.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation increased by 112.5% to $3.3mn. The improvement was meaningful, but margins remain thin for a company operating in volatile alloy and silicon markets.

The company is also considering reopening operations in Venezuela. Those assets are close to the US market and could benefit from low-cost energy, raw materials and favourable logistics.

That strategy reflects the changing economics of ferro-alloy and silicon production. Energy cost, trade access, import protection and proximity to customers are becoming more important than legacy European capacity alone.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ferroglobe’s results show that Europe’s silicon metal problem is not only weak demand; it is structural cost exposure against lower-priced imports. If the EU wants domestic critical industrial material capacity, silicon metal may need the same policy seriousness now being applied to batteries, magnets and semiconductors.

New US Tariffs Could Significantly Impact European Aluminium Scrap Exports

Aluminium Scrap

European aluminium recycling faces challenges as US tariffs on scrap imports rise.

The recent announcement of new tariffs by the United States government, particularly on aluminium scrap from Europe, is sending ripples through the European aluminium recycling industry. The sweeping tariff adjustments, which were introduced by US President Donald Trump on April 2, threaten to significantly reduce the flow of European aluminium scrap to the US. With these new measures, aluminium scrap will face a substantial tariff, making it less attractive for US buyers.

Impact of New Tariffs on Aluminium Scrap Exports

The new tariffs, set to take effect on April 9, place aluminium scrap imports from Europe under a 20% tariff, while imports from the UK will face a slightly lower 10% tariff. This comes after the previously established 25% tariff on primary aluminium imports from Europe, which was put in place last month. As a result, the cost of importing aluminium scrap from Europe will be nearly as high as that for importing primary aluminium, significantly altering the economics of aluminium recycling.

Historically, the US had been a major buyer of European aluminium scrap, with many industries using recycled aluminium as an alternative to primary aluminium. The new tariffs, however, will likely make scrap imports much less appealing to US buyers, pushing them to explore other options. This comes after previous expectations that the US would turn to aluminium scrap as a more affordable alternative to primary aluminium, which is now burdened by hefty tariffs.

Reactions from Industry Associations

Industry associations such as European Aluminium and Aluminium Deutschland have voiced concerns over the new tariffs, as they undermine the viability of aluminium scrap exports. These associations had earlier called for export restrictions on scrap due to fears that large-scale shipments of aluminium scrap could exacerbate market imbalances. With the tariffs in place, the likelihood of scrap exports to the US is expected to diminish significantly.

European Aluminium has indicated that it is closely monitoring the situation to determine its next steps regarding export restrictions. Aluminium Deutschland, however, has yet to comment on the matter.

What This Means for the Aluminium Recycling Industry

These new tariffs could lead to a shift in the global aluminium market. If European aluminium scrap becomes less competitive due to high tariffs, it may force US buyers to seek out other sources of aluminium scrap, possibly from domestic markets or alternative suppliers. Additionally, this could put pressure on European recyclers, who may face reduced demand for their products, forcing them to explore new markets or adjust their pricing strategies.

As the situation evolves, the aluminium recycling industry in Europe will need to adapt to these new challenges, either by lobbying for changes in tariff policies or by finding ways to remain competitive in an increasingly restricted global market.

EU-India Strengthen Collaboration on CBAM

The European Union has commenced fresh negotiations with India following its decision to implement the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on imported steel and aluminum, aiming to resolve ongoing trade tensions.

European Commission Secretary-General Gerassimos Thomas led a delegation to New Delhi in early July to discuss a range of taxation and customs issues, including CBAM. The visit sought to harmonize decarbonization efforts between Indian and European industries and address the challenges Indian companies face under CBAM.

Thomas engaged with Indian government officials and steel industry stakeholders, emphasizing Europe’s commitment to importing low-carbon products to support global decarbonization and ensure equitable treatment of imported goods. This mechanism is set for gradual introduction, providing maximum predictability for investors and businesses.

Thomas lauded India's economic decarbonization plans, highlighting the shared commitment of the EU and India to tackle environmental issues collaboratively. The EC delegation's visit provided a platform to discuss the implementation challenges of CBAM for Indian companies, particularly focusing on the potential impact on SMEs.

Technical meetings with India's Ministry of Energy will continue, with a CBAM transition assessment report due to be submitted to the European Council and Parliament by the end of next year. This report will be publicly available for Indian industries and authorities to comment on and engage in further discussions.

Both parties also expressed mutual interest in cooperating on carbon trading markets, pricing mechanisms, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and clean technology. The EU plans to consult with major Asian trading partners, including South Korea and Japan, on CBAM, with both countries committed to addressing related uncertainties.

Last month, trade negotiations in New Delhi aimed at mitigating the impact of expanded safeguards and tariffs on certain steel imports failed to reach an agreement. India had sought equivalent concessions and trade compensation from the EU but to no avail.

With impending EU import restrictions on Indian steel products, speculation arose that India might retaliate through WTO litigation and trade reprisals. However, the recent EC delegation visit, which initiated discussions on various steel-related trade issues, suggests a potential easing of trade conflicts and the start of new negotiations.

European Aluminium Calls for Unified CO2 Calculation Standards

European Aluminium

Industry Push for Harmonised Emissions Methodology

European Aluminium has urged the EU to establish a universal methodology for calculating carbon emissions across aluminium value chains. The industry body warned that fragmented national approaches create compliance burdens and hinder the EU’s decarbonisation targets. Member states are currently using varied methods that include renewable energy credits, recycled inputs, and innovative processes, but lack of alignment reduces comparability and efficiency.

The association addressed its concerns directly to European Commission leaders, stressing that inconsistent emissions reporting undermines transparency. It highlighted the need for alignment to support the EU’s broader climate strategy, particularly as aluminium plays a critical role in low-carbon industries such as automotive, construction, and packaging.

Regulatory Landscape and Policy Recommendations

European Aluminium pointed to ongoing regulatory frameworks such as the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) standards for EV batteries. These regulations demonstrate momentum toward emissions accountability but also expose gaps caused by inconsistent calculation methods.

The group expressed support for the European Commission’s Clean Industrial Deal (CID), which aims to streamline reporting across EU institutions. However, it warned that achieving a single emissions calculation framework might require adjusting legislative deadlines to allow industry and regulators sufficient time for harmonisation.

The Metalnomist Commentary

A harmonised carbon calculation system would significantly reduce compliance costs for aluminium producers and ensure fair competition across the EU market. Without it, fragmented rules risk weakening Europe’s industrial base at a time when decarbonisation and strategic autonomy are top priorities. The call from European Aluminium underscores the urgency for the EU to deliver clarity and consistency.

TSR Acquires German Plant to Expand Copper Alloys Production

TSR Recycling

TSR Recycling, a leading European metals recycler, has successfully acquired Siegfried Jost GmbH & Co NE Metallhandel and its electric melting plant in Menden, Germany. The acquisition strengthens TSR’s position in the copper alloys market by adding advanced production capabilities, particularly in the smelting of copper alloys from recycled raw materials.

Expansion into Copper Alloys and Smelting Expertise

The Menden plant specializes in the production of copper alloys, which are used primarily in industries such as sanitation and glass manufacturing. These alloys include materials such as brass, special brass, nickel bronze, aluminum bronze, and gunmetal. Siegfried Jost also handles production residues like slag, dross, sand, and swarf, which are further processed in the electric melting plant to create high-quality alloys.

TSR’s acquisition not only broadens its portfolio but also allows the company to expand its expertise in smelting processes, particularly for copper alloys produced from recycled materials. The move marks a strategic step for TSR in enhancing its recycling capabilities and furthering its commitment to sustainable metal production. In a LinkedIn post on November 4, TSR emphasized that the acquisition would enable the company to leverage its in-depth know-how of smelting processes to meet the growing demand for high-quality copper alloys in various industries.

Strategic Growth for TSR Recycling

By integrating Siegfried Jost’s advanced alloy production facility, TSR is set to improve its market position and expand its service offerings in the copper alloys sector. The move aligns with the company's broader goals to increase its recycling operations, contributing to both sustainability and the growing demand for recycled metal alloys in European industries.

EU Raw Materials Platform Targets Strategic Metals Supply Security

EU, Raw Materials Platform

EU raw materials platform development has advanced as the European Commission launched a new online mechanism to connect European offtakers with suppliers of strategic raw materials. The EU raw materials platform is designed to support demand aggregation, joint purchasing and better market information across critical supply chains.

The platform covers all 17 strategic raw materials listed under the Critical Raw Materials Act. These materials are central to batteries, rare earth magnets, defence systems, semiconductors, renewable energy, advanced manufacturing and industrial resilience.

EU raw materials platform activity will take place through structured rounds. The first diversification round will target operational projects where materials are already available or expected in the near term, with a focus on rare earths, defence-related materials and battery metals.

The mechanism will not provide financing or directly support negotiations. However, it can improve visibility across supply, demand, storage, investment opportunities and financing options, which are often fragmented in strategic raw material markets.

Demand Aggregation Could Strengthen Minor Metals Markets

Demand aggregation is the most important function of the platform. Many strategic materials are needed in small volumes by individual companies, but they carry high industrial and defence value.

This is especially true for minor metals such as gallium and germanium. These materials are used in semiconductors, optics, solar technologies, defence electronics and advanced communications systems, but individual buyers may not require large enough volumes to support new supply projects alone.

Pooling demand can change that equation. If several European buyers aggregate requirements, suppliers may see larger, more stable offtake volumes. This can improve confidence for upstream mining, refining, recycling and midstream processing projects.

The same logic applies to rare earths. Magnet makers, motor producers, defence manufacturers and clean-energy equipment suppliers often need secure access to neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium. Aggregated demand could make European purchasing more credible to non-EU suppliers.

Battery metals may also benefit. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese and graphite supply chains are increasingly shaped by long-term offtake, regional qualification and industrial policy. A shared platform can help buyers identify supply options before shortages become acute.

The platform therefore addresses a structural weakness in Europe’s critical materials strategy. Europe has strong downstream industries, but many of those industries purchase strategic metals in fragmented, company-by-company channels.

By collecting and exchanging market data, the mechanism could help convert dispersed demand into more bankable offtake signals. That is important for suppliers seeking financing, customers and predictable long-term buyers.

Platform Supports EU Diversification but Does Not Replace Financing

The EU raw materials platform is part of a broader strategy to reduce external dependencies under the Critical Raw Materials Act. Europe wants to diversify supply, strengthen domestic processing and secure access to materials needed for the energy transition and defence.

However, the mechanism is not a full project-financing tool. Negotiations will take place outside the system, and the platform will not guarantee deals or provide direct financial backing.

This limits what the mechanism can achieve by itself. Strategic raw material projects still need permitting, capital, technology, customer qualification, logistics and long-term price visibility.

But the platform can still play a useful role. It can bring buyers and suppliers into the same market framework, improve demand transparency and identify where joint purchasing could support supply diversification.

The first diversification round will be important because it focuses on projects close to availability. This avoids the problem of relying only on long-dated mining projects that may take years to enter production.

The inclusion of storage options is also relevant. Strategic materials supply security is not only about production. It also depends on inventories, emergency access, buffer stocks and coordinated procurement during disruption.

The broader platform also includes gas and hydrogen mechanisms. This shows that the EU is applying a similar strategic procurement model across energy and raw materials, where fragmented buying can weaken market leverage.

For Europe’s industrial base, the key issue is execution. The platform must move beyond data sharing and create real commercial connections between offtakers and suppliers. Otherwise, it risks becoming another policy tool without enough market impact.

For suppliers, the opportunity is clearer. A credible pool of European demand could make projects more attractive, especially in rare earths, gallium, germanium and battery materials where supply diversification is politically urgent.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU raw materials platform is not a financing solution, but it could become an important demand-signalling tool. Its success will depend on whether Europe can turn fragmented buyer interest into real offtake volumes that support new strategic metals supply.

Trade Measures to Dominate Steel Industry in 2025: Focus on Imports and Global Overcapacity

China Steel Factory

Trade protection measures have been the focal point of the global steel industry throughout 2024, with little indication of this trend slowing down in 2025. Steel producers, industry associations, and governments worldwide are increasingly advocating for stronger import barriers to safeguard domestic markets and improve the competitiveness of their industries. In particular, European steel mills have been at the forefront of this movement, calling for more robust action to combat what they view as unfair imports and growing overcapacity in the global market.

European Steel Industry Pushes for Stronger Import Protection

Eurofer, the industry association for European steel manufacturers, has been particularly vocal about the need for stronger trade defence instruments. The association has urged the European Union to implement short-term emergency measures, including import tariffication, to curb the influx of low-cost steel products. Eurofer's stance has been largely driven by the EU’s ambitious decarbonisation goals, with the bloc committing billions of euros in investment. Steel producers argue that the EU's current measures are insufficient, particularly in light of increasing steel imports from countries with lower production costs and fewer environmental regulations.

Significant progress has already been made, with Eurofer helping secure changes to the EU’s safeguard system for key products like hot-rolled coils (HRC) and wire rods. Additionally, the EU anti-dumping investigation targeting several HRC suppliers has gained traction, and further investigations are planned on downstream steel products. As European steel suppliers continue to collect evidence of unfair trade practices, more scrutiny is expected on countries like China, India, and Vietnam.

The Impact of Global Overcapacity and Chinese Steel Exports

The issue of global steel overcapacity has also been a major concern. The OECD has raised alarms about the growing steel production capacity, projecting a 158 million tonnes per year increase in global capacity between 2024 and 2026. This expansion, however, comes at a time when global steel demand remains uncertain. Despite this, steel exports from non-OECD countries have been recovering since 2023, particularly from China, whose steel exports surged by 22.6% from January to November 2024.

China has also been exporting record volumes of semi-finished steel, despite the country’s preference for exporting higher-value products. As China continues to ramp up exports, it has attracted the attention of both European and global policymakers, leading to new protectionist measures targeting Chinese steel. This includes potential investigations and pending duties on Chinese steel, which could affect up to 15 million tonnes per year of exports.

Countries like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia are also seeing increases in steel exports, contributing to the global capacity glut. Turkey, a major market for Chinese steel, has already imposed duties on imports from China, India, Russia, and Japan in response to the increasing influx of steel from these regions. The EU is similarly considering the inclusion of Indonesia in its safeguard measures due to the country’s rising steel exports to Europe. From July to October 2024, Indonesia exported 494,650 tonnes of HRC to the EU, surpassing the previous half-year period, a trend that is expected to continue.

Investigations and Measures Targeting Global Steel Exporters

The growing export volumes from India and Vietnam, along with the rise in Indonesia’s exports to Europe, have prompted investigations into dumping practices in these countries. The EU has already initiated anti-dumping investigations on steel products from Egypt, Japan, India, and Vietnam, with the preliminary results of these investigations expected in March 2025. If these investigations lead to findings of unfair trade practices, retroactive duties could be applied, further tightening global trade conditions.

In response, producers are gearing up for a potential wave of new safeguard measures and anti-dumping duties. Countries that are impacted by these measures may look to retaliate, creating a complex global trade landscape for steel. As trade protectionism increases, the global steel market is expected to undergo significant shifts in the coming years.

EU Brazil critical minerals agreement targets strategic autonomy

Brazil critical minerals

The EU Brazil critical minerals agreement signals a major shift in how Europe secures lithium, nickel and rare earths. The EU Brazil critical minerals agreement aims to underpin the bloc’s digital and clean transitions while reducing exposure to geopolitical shocks. By elevating Brazil as a strategic partner, the EU Brazil critical minerals agreement also diversifies away from single-country dependence in sensitive supply chains.

EU Brazil critical minerals agreement builds on Mercosur trade deal

The new framework for critical minerals cooperation comes as the EU signs a long-awaited free trade agreement with Mercosur. This broader deal creates a legal and commercial backbone for long-term investment in Brazil’s mining, processing and midstream industries. As a result, European OEMs and utilities gain clearer access to Brazilian lithium, nickel and rare earths under a stable trade regime.

EU leaders explicitly link critical minerals to the green and digital transitions, not just to raw material security. The EU wants Brazilian supply to feed battery plants, magnet producers and clean-tech manufacturers across the bloc. Meanwhile, joint projects in exploration, processing and ESG standards can lift Brazil’s role from simple ore exporter to integrated value chain partner.

The trade and minerals agenda also reflects Brazil’s own industrial policy. Brasília seeks to climb the value chain by promoting local processing, refining and technology transfer. EU financing, offtake contracts and technology cooperation can accelerate that goal and create more predictable long-term flows to European buyers.

China export controls keep rare earth risks in focus

China’s rolling export controls on medium and heavy rare earths remain the backdrop for this strategic pivot. Even with recent suspensions and simplified licensing, Beijing still holds powerful levers over global magnet and rare earth supply. European policymakers view these episodes as a warning that minerals can become tools of coercion in future disputes.

Therefore, the EU is racing to build parallel supply routes through partners like Brazil, Australia, Canada and the US. New agreements with Brazil complement EU critical raw materials partnerships already under way with other producer countries. In practice, this means more diversified sourcing of rare earths, battery metals and strategic by-products into European industry.

However, turning memorandums into molecules will take time and capital. Brazil must expand infrastructure, environmental permitting capacity and midstream processing to meet European demand. The EU, in turn, must mobilise public finance, de-risk long-term offtakes and align sustainability rules with commercial reality for miners and processors.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal underlines how trade policy and critical minerals strategy now move in lockstep. For metals and mining players, EU–Brazil alignment could unlock new funding, offtake and joint-venture structures over the next decade. The key question is how fast projects can move from political announcements to bankable assets before the next supply shock hits.

Greenland Resources SSAB Ferro-Molybdenum Deal Strengthens European Alloy Supply

Greenland Resources

Greenland Resources SSAB ferro-molybdenum deal has added another strategic offtake agreement to the Malmbjerg molybdenum project in eastern Greenland. The Canadian mine developer signed an eight-year binding agreement with Swedish steel producer SSAB for future ferro-molybdenum supply.

The agreement includes price floors and ceilings, giving both companies a clearer commercial framework for long-term supply. However, the companies have not disclosed the final offtake quantities.

Greenland Resources SSAB ferro-molybdenum deal is significant because molybdenum is essential for high-strength steels, corrosion-resistant alloys, automotive steels, and defense-grade materials. SSAB’s role gives the agreement direct relevance to European advanced steel manufacturing.

Malmbjerg Project Builds Commercial Momentum

The ferro-molybdenum will be produced from molybdenum ore from Greenland Resources’ Malmbjerg project. The material will later be refined in Belgium, supported by Greenland Resources’ tolling agreement with Molymet.

The Malmbjerg project received a 30-year exploitation permit in June 2025, but commercial production has not yet started. This makes binding offtake agreements important for project financing, customer validation, and future market confidence.

The EU said in December that it would help fund the project. Canada’s natural resources department also conditionally approved a C$7mn grant in March, adding public-sector support to the project’s growing commercial base.

SSAB Agreement Supports Europe’s High-Strength Steel Supply Chain

SSAB has 8.8mn t/yr of steel capacity across Sweden, Finland, and the US. The company produces high-strength steels for industries including defense and automotive, where ferro-molybdenum improves strength, toughness, and high-temperature performance.

Greenland Resources has also signed other molybdenum offtake agreements with Hempel, Cogne, Outokumpu, GMH Group, Rogesa, and now SSAB. This expanding customer base shows that European industrial buyers are actively looking for more secure molybdenum supply.

The Greenland Resources SSAB ferro-molybdenum deal also fits Europe’s broader raw material security strategy. If Malmbjerg advances into production, it could connect Greenlandic ore, Belgian refining, and European steel alloy demand in a more resilient regional supply chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The SSAB agreement gives Malmbjerg stronger credibility because it links the project directly to high-strength steel demand. Europe’s molybdenum strategy now depends on turning offtake momentum into real mine, refining, and alloy supply capacity.

European Steel and Metals Action Plan could lift some steel prices by 30%, Acea warns

ACEA

The European Steel and Metals Action Plan could raise costs for Europe’s steel-using industries. The European Steel and Metals Action Plan could push certain specialised steel grades up by 30%, Acea said. Meanwhile, industry groups expect higher costs than the Commission’s average price estimate.

Manufacturing associations argue the plan tightens import rules too sharply. They expect the proposal to nearly halve import quotas and raise out-of-quota tariffs to 50%. As a result, they estimate €5bn–9bn per year in tariff costs if import volumes stay near 2024 levels.

Import safeguards tighten supply and amplify price risk for niche grades

Quota cuts usually hit specialised categories first. Automakers and machinery makers often rely on a narrow set of approved, high-grade steels. However, only a few global suppliers produce some of these grades at scale.

The plan also adds a “melt-and-pour” origin rule. This rule forces buyers to prove where steel was melted and poured. Therefore, firms face heavier compliance work and slower procurement cycles.

Downstream manufacturers warn of a policy stack effect

The policy stack raises the total cost burden beyond tariffs. CBAM compliance and the phase-out of free ETS allowances add additional cost pressure. As a result, downstream sectors fear a competitiveness hit versus producers outside Europe.

Industry groups also flag operational complexity for smaller firms. SMEs may lack the staff to manage origin documentation and quota administration. Meanwhile, associations urge policy makers to protect trade with close partners, including Switzerland.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The European Steel and Metals Action Plan may strengthen local mills, but it can also squeeze downstream margins fast. Policymakers should target circumvention without cutting access to specialised grades. A balanced design will decide whether Europe protects industry or prices it out.

EU Weighs Extending CBAM to Downstream Industries

EU CBAM

The European Commission is evaluating the possibility of expanding the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to downstream sectors, a move anticipated by European steel associations and member states. The current CBAM focuses primarily on upstream industries, but this shift aims to curb the rising cost of downstream products and mitigate risks to local steel supply chains.

Steel associations like Eurofer strongly advocate for the CBAM’s extension, as they believe it is essential for controlling carbon emissions and managing increasing imports. The downstream industries have been notably absent from the current framework, a gap that stakeholders fear could lead to "carbon leakage"—where manufacturers relocate outside the EU to take advantage of less stringent climate regulations.

Italian steel association president Paolo Sangoi emphasized the need for a comprehensive approach in April, warning that neglecting downstream sectors would weaken the CBAM’s effectiveness. Steelmaker ArcelorMittal also advocates for "swift and effective" measures to protect the EU steel market, underscoring the importance of extending the CBAM.

Other countries such as Canada, the US, and ASEAN are considering their own versions of CBAM, while the UK plans to implement its CBAM in 2027. However, UK Steel is pushing for an earlier implementation in 2026 to align more closely with the EU's timeline.

Eurofer Downgrades 2024 Steel Consumption Forecast Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Market Challenges

Eurofer

The European steel industry faces ongoing turbulence as Eurofer, the European Steel Association, has downgraded its 2024 steel consumption forecast. Instead of the previously expected 1.4% recovery, Eurofer now predicts a 1.8% contraction in apparent steel consumption for the year. This revision follows a combination of escalating geopolitical tensions, rising energy costs, and the continuation of a downtrend observed in recent quarters.

Revised Forecasts and Industry Outlook

Eurofer has also adjusted its forecast for the output of steel-using sectors, now anticipating a decline of 2.7%, down from the previously expected 1.6%. Despite these declines, the forecast for 2024 is less severe compared to last year, when apparent steel consumption fell by 6%. Looking ahead to 2025, Eurofer projects a 3.8% recovery in apparent consumption and a 1.6% increase in output from steel-using sectors. However, this expected rebound comes after consecutive annual declines, indicating that it reflects more of a recovery from a period of stagnation rather than a genuine improvement in demand.

Sector-Specific Challenges

Several key sectors that typically drive steel demand in Europe are facing significant headwinds. The automotive industry, a major consumer of flat steel, is grappling with the aggressive pricing strategies of Chinese automakers, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector. This competitive pressure has led Volkswagen, one of Europe’s largest car manufacturers, to announce the closure of at least three plants and lay off thousands of employees in Germany.

The challenges are not limited to the automotive sector. In the construction industry, a lack of investment, high production costs, and financing constraints are negatively impacting steel demand. Similarly, the white goods sector is also struggling with high production costs, which are expected to worsen once the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) comes into effect in 2026. While the CBAM will not fully cover downstream industries like white goods at first, its eventual extension is expected to raise steel prices within the EU, potentially affecting European white goods' competitiveness, particularly against imports from China.

Looking Ahead: Steel Consumption in 2025

Despite the setbacks in 2024, Eurofer remains cautiously optimistic about 2025, projecting a modest recovery. However, the road to recovery is complicated by external pressures, including geopolitical tensions and global market shifts. The full impact of the CBAM, combined with ongoing challenges in key industries like automotive and construction, will likely continue to shape the steel market in Europe over the coming years.

EU Unveils Draft Plan to Cut Soaring Energy Costs and Safeguard Industrial Competitiveness

The European Commission

European Commission Pushes for Tax Reforms and Clean Energy to Address Rising Electricity Prices

The European Commission has introduced a draft strategy to combat the EU's growing energy cost burden and avoid de-industrialisation. The plan, released in a draft document, stresses that Europe must narrow its energy price gap with global competitors to retain industrial strength.

Much of the proposal consists of non-binding recommendations, especially on energy taxation. The Commission highlights fossil fuel dependence, high network costs, and heavy taxation as key drivers of price volatility. These factors, officials warn, are making EU industries less competitive on the global stage.

Tax Relief and Market Reforms at the Core of the Strategy

To reduce the electricity cost burden, the EU proposes lowering taxes on power for both energy-intensive industries and households. The plan encourages EU member states to cut electricity taxes to nearly zero. Officials also want to reduce or remove non-energy components from energy bills.

The Commission plans to revive the long-stalled effort to revise the 2003 Energy Taxation Directive, though this would require unanimous agreement across all member states. Additionally, a new Energy Union Task Force will lead efforts to create a fully integrated EU energy market in 2024.

Other key initiatives include an electrification action plan, a digitalisation roadmap, and a heating and cooling strategy. These aim to streamline energy systems, reduce consumption, and accelerate the shift to clean energy.

Flexibility, Renewables, and Future-Proofing the Grid

The draft strategy also promotes consumer empowerment, urging member states to remove barriers to supplier switching, improve energy efficiency, and support renewable energy communities. The Commission will propose measures to decouple retail electricity prices from gas prices, which have remained volatile since 2022.

By 2026, the EU plans to issue guidance on combining Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with Contracts for Difference (CfDs). The Commission is also considering new rules for forward markets, hedging instruments, and a possible legally binding tariff methodology for network charges.

In terms of infrastructure, the EU will push for faster permitting of new energy projects and encourage demand response and energy storage to improve system flexibility. Officials estimate that replacing fossil fuels with clean electricity could save 50% on power costs. Electrification and efficiency upgrades would save another 30%, and flexibility improvements could deliver 20% more savings.

As part of long-term planning, the Commission is exploring LNG supply deals and infrastructure investments to stabilize prices and ensure energy security across the bloc.

EU ETS and CBAM Reform Moves to the Center of Europe’s Industrial Debate

EU ETS

EU ETS and CBAM reform has moved to the center of Europe’s industrial debate. European leaders and major industrial executives now want climate policy to protect competitiveness more effectively. They argue that energy costs and carbon costs are putting heavy pressure on manufacturers. As a result, EU ETS and CBAM reform is becoming a core test of Europe’s industrial strategy.

Ursula von der Leyen made the message clear in Antwerp. She said more ETS revenues should flow back into industry instead of remaining underused. EU ETS revenues have exceeded €260bn since 2005, but only a small share has supported industrial decarbonisation. Therefore, EU ETS and CBAM reform is no longer only about emissions policy. It is also about how Europe funds industrial survival and transition.

Industrial leaders are also asking for a harder review of the current ETS design. Cefic’s leadership argued that two decades of ETS policy may have created unintended pressure on European producers. That criticism reflects a wider concern across chemicals, steel, and fertilizers. Consequently, EU industrial competitiveness is now being discussed alongside carbon ambition, not after it.

ETS Revenues for Industry Are Becoming a Main Political Demand

ETS revenues for industry are now one of the clearest demands from business leaders. Companies want a larger share of carbon-market income returned to industrial decarbonisation projects. They argue that this money should help fund cleaner production, not simply disappear into general state budgets. As a result, the summer ETS reform debate could become highly consequential for manufacturers.

This issue matters because European industry is already under cost pressure. Energy prices remain volatile, and carbon costs add another burden to production. If ETS revenues are reinvested more directly, companies may gain more confidence to modernize assets and keep production in Europe. Therefore, ETS revenues for industry could become one of the most practical tools in the reform package.

French president Emmanuel Macron added a similar message from a competitiveness angle. He argued that ETS must support decarbonisation without damaging industry. That framing is important because it shifts the debate from climate policy alone to climate policy design. Meanwhile, it strengthens the case for reforms that are more responsive to industrial reality.

CBAM Certainty Will Matter as Much as CBAM Ambition

CBAM certainty is now just as important as CBAM ambition. Macron said CBAM is necessary if Europe wants to preserve sectors such as steel. However, industry leaders warned that mixed signals from Brussels are creating confusion. That confusion risks weakening trust in the policy before it is fully established.

Yara’s chief executive highlighted that risk directly. He said fertilizer producers faced serious uncertainty after the Commission discussed a possible temporary suspension for some CBAM goods. Even the idea of retroactive change unsettled the market. Therefore, EU ETS and CBAM reform must now address policy stability as well as policy strength.

The wider business message from Antwerp was straightforward. European companies are not asking to avoid the transition. They are asking for competitive conditions that allow them to lead it. Public procurement, private buyer initiatives, and clearer climate rules could all help create that framework. As a result, CBAM certainty may prove just as critical as carbon pricing itself.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe is entering a more difficult phase of climate policy. Setting carbon rules was the first challenge, but making them industrially workable is the next one. If Brussels cannot deliver both stronger support and greater policy clarity, EU ETS and CBAM reform may protect ambition while weakening the industries expected to carry it.

EU 2026 Growth Forecast Cut as Energy Shock Hits Industrial Outlook

EU energy

EU 2026 growth forecast has been cut to 1.1% as the European Commission warned that the US-Iran war has created a new energy shock, lifted inflation risk and weakened economic sentiment across the bloc.

EU 2026 growth forecast was lowered by 0.3 percentage points from the previous projection of 1.4%. The downgrade reflects the sharp rise in energy costs since late February and the renewed pressure on households, manufacturers and public finances.

EU 2026 growth forecast matters for metals and industrial supply chains because higher gas and oil prices directly affect production costs, margins and demand visibility. Energy-intensive sectors such as aluminium, steel, chemicals, fertilizers and glass remain especially exposed.

The Commission expects EU growth to recover to 1.4% in 2027, while eurozone growth is forecast at 1.2%. But the near-term outlook remains fragile as the energy shock continues to reshape inflation and investment decisions.

Higher Gas and Oil Prices Weigh on European Competitiveness

Energy prices have risen sharply since the outbreak of the conflict. The Commission said gas prices increased by 50% and crude oil prices by 65% between 27 February and the 29 April cut-off date.

The outlook assumes average TTF gas futures prices will be 47% higher in 2026 and 32% higher in 2027 than in the previous forecast. That creates a heavier cost base for European industry.

For manufacturers, the impact is immediate. Higher gas, power and fuel costs reduce competitiveness against producers in regions with cheaper energy.

This is especially important for metals. European smelters, refiners and rolling mills already face pressure from imports, carbon costs and weak demand. Another energy shock could delay restocking and weaken investment appetite.

Inflation is also expected to rise. EU headline inflation is forecast to increase to 3.1% in 2026 from 2.5% in 2025, before easing to 2.4% in 2027.

That inflation path limits policy flexibility. Governments may need to support vulnerable consumers and industries, but public finances are already under pressure.

The EU general government deficit is expected to widen to 3.6% of GDP by 2027, up from 3.1% in 2025. This reduces the room for broad stimulus and increases the importance of targeted support.

Growth Gap Widens Across the EU

The energy shock is affecting member states unevenly. Ireland is forecast to contract by 1.2%, while major economies such as Italy, Germany and France are expected to grow only modestly.

Germany’s growth is forecast at 0.6%, France at 0.8%, Italy at 0.5% and the Netherlands at 1%. These figures point to weak momentum across several core industrial economies.

Southern and eastern Europe show stronger projections. Spain is forecast to grow by 2.4%, Lithuania by 3%, Poland by 3.5% and Malta by 3.7%.

The gap matters because Europe’s industrial recovery will not be uniform. Regions with stronger growth may support construction, infrastructure and manufacturing demand, while slower economies could weigh on metals consumption.

The Commission also warned of a downside scenario in which EU-wide growth falls to just 0.7% this year. That risk depends partly on how quickly oil and gas supply from the Mideast Gulf can normalise.

EU economy commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said Europe should respond by further reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels and keeping fiscal support temporary and targeted.

That message reinforces the strategic link between energy security and industrial competitiveness. Europe has reduced the energy intensity of economic output by about 44% since 1995, but the latest shock shows that import dependence still carries major economic risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s growth downgrade is an industrial warning, not just a macroeconomic revision. The bloc cannot protect metals, manufacturing and clean-energy supply chains without faster domestic energy deployment and lower exposure to imported fossil fuels.

EU Tungsten Prices Surge Amid Tight Supply and China Export Controls

EU Tungsten Scrap

Export Restrictions and Low Inventories Drive Up Tungsten Prices in Europe

European tungsten prices have surged to multi-year highs due to restricted supply, dwindling inventories, and newly imposed Chinese export controls. The Focus Keyphrase "EU tungsten prices" has gained attention from global buyers navigating a market reshaped by policy shifts and geopolitical uncertainty.

European tungsten concentrate prices are now $310–320/dmtu in Rotterdam warehouses, up from $260–270/dmtu in early January — the highest level since the index’s launch in 2017. This price rally stems from low inventories and tightening global supply, particularly as China has lowered its tungsten mining quota and extended export licensing to include more products.

Western Buyers Lock in Long-Term Contracts Amid Risk

Western buyers are responding to this supply disruption by securing multi-year offtake deals. According to Australia-based producer EQ Resources, these contracts often include large prepayments to hedge against delays in Chinese export licence approvals.

Meanwhile, the defense sector's growing demand for tungsten is driving further contract activity. Almonty Industries, for instance, has signed a multi-year agreement to supply tungsten oxide to U.S.-based TPW for military applications. These agreements underscore the metal's strategic importance and the urgency among buyers to secure long-term supply.

However, some traders question how long the upward momentum can last. While markets like Vietnam remain willing to pay premium prices, others find current rates difficult to accept.

APT Prices Rise as Chinese Controls Disrupt Market

The price of ammonium paratungstate (APT), a key tungsten intermediate, has also spiked. European APT prices now range between $395–405/dmtu, a 20% increase since January and the highest since 2013. China’s restrictions have further worsened European availability, leading to extremely low warehouse stock levels.

As a workaround, some buyers have started importing ammonium tungstate (ATM), which is not currently subject to export controls. Although ATM cannot be converted into oxide, it is usable in limited applications. Industry sources caution that ATM could be restricted if the trade environment worsens.

Adding to the cost pressure, concentrate payables have jumped to 80–85% of APT price, up from the typical 70%, reflecting the sharp increase in feedstock costs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EU tungsten prices are being reshaped not just by market forces, but by geopolitics. With China tightening control over its critical minerals, Western buyers are being pushed into a new era of strategic procurement. As APT and concentrate prices continue to climb, Europe’s reliance on Chinese tungsten remains a vulnerability — one that may prompt diversification strategies and renewed investment in local supply chains.

Amag Aluminium Loan Strengthens Europe’s Push for Advanced Aluminium Manufacturing

Amag Aluminium

Amag aluminium loan financing from the European Investment Bank will support new research, digitalisation, and sustainable manufacturing in Austria’s downstream aluminium sector. The €75mn loan gives Amag fresh capital to develop higher-value aluminium products while improving the environmental performance of its Upper Austria production base.

The financing marks the first EIB loan in Austria under the TechEU programme. That matters because the programme is designed to accelerate European innovation in strategic industries. For aluminium, this support comes as Europe seeks more resilient supply chains for materials used in transport, packaging, energy infrastructure, and net-zero technologies.

Amag plans to use the loan as part of a wider research investment programme expected to reach €168mn between 2025 and 2028. The Amag aluminium loan therefore supports more than one company’s balance sheet. It also reflects Europe’s effort to protect industrial capability in a sector exposed to energy costs, import competition, and decarbonisation pressure.

EIB Financing Supports Aluminium R&D and Digitalisation

The EIB financing will help Amag develop advanced aluminium products and modernise manufacturing processes. This is important because downstream aluminium producers increasingly compete on alloy performance, process efficiency, traceability, and carbon footprint rather than volume alone.

Digitalisation will likely play a central role in that competitiveness. Aluminium rolling, casting, recycling, and finishing operations depend on tight process control. Better data systems can improve yield, reduce waste, and support more consistent product quality for demanding customers in automotive, aerospace, industrial, and energy transition markets.

The Amag aluminium loan also highlights how public financing is becoming more closely tied to industrial technology. Europe is trying to support companies that can upgrade manufacturing while meeting stricter sustainability requirements. For aluminium producers, that means combining product innovation with lower-emission operations.

Critical Raw Materials Policy Raises Aluminium’s Strategic Role

The loan also aligns with the European Critical Raw Materials Act. Although aluminium is widely traded, Europe increasingly treats it as a strategic material because it underpins net-zero technologies, lightweight transport, power infrastructure, and manufacturing resilience.

This policy connection is significant for downstream producers. Europe does not only need raw metal supply. It also needs domestic capacity to convert aluminium into advanced products that meet industrial and environmental standards. Companies such as Amag sit in that critical middle layer between raw material supply and finished manufacturing.

The EIB’s support therefore strengthens Europe’s aluminium value chain at a time when industrial policy is becoming more active. As global competition intensifies, financing for research and sustainable production can help European producers defend higher-value market positions and reduce dependence on imported materials and technologies.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Amag aluminium loan shows how Europe is using finance as an industrial policy tool. The bigger message is clear: aluminium competitiveness will depend on innovation, low-carbon production, and control over strategic manufacturing capacity.

Aluminium Dunkerque Acquisition Expands Alba’s Reach Into EU Aluminium Smelting

Aluminium Dunkerque

Aluminium Dunkerque acquisition plans will give Aluminium Bahrain a major foothold in European primary aluminium production. Alba has agreed to acquire the French smelter from US private equity firm American Industrial Partners, creating a more geographically diversified aluminium group.

Aluminium Dunkerque is the largest aluminium smelter in the EU, with capacity of around 300,000 t/yr. The facility gives Alba direct exposure to European customers, EU industrial policy, and the region’s growing demand for lower-carbon aluminium supply.

The Aluminium Dunkerque acquisition also reflects a broader reshaping of aluminium ownership in Europe. Smelters with stable power access, strong industrial customers, and low-carbon potential are becoming strategically valuable as Europe tries to preserve energy-intensive manufacturing.

Alba Targets Long-Term Industrial Strategy in France

Alba said the transaction would combine two aluminium producers with complementary regional footprints. The company plans to maintain an industrial strategy anchored in France, led locally, and focused on operational stability.

This is important because Aluminium Dunkerque has changed ownership several times in recent years. American Industrial Partners has owned the smelter since 2021, after foreclosing on shares linked to GFG Alliance’s financing default. The facility had previously been owned by GFG subsidiary Liberty France Industries.

Alba’s management emphasized continuity, employee support, and continued investment. That message is likely aimed at French stakeholders, including workers, customers, power suppliers, and policymakers concerned about the future of domestic industrial capacity.

Low-Carbon Aluminium Becomes a Strategic Asset

Aluminium Dunkerque acquisition plans could strengthen Alba’s position in low-carbon aluminium markets. European customers increasingly need aluminium with stronger emissions credentials for automotive, packaging, construction, electrical equipment, and energy transition applications.

Alba said it wants to expand low-carbon production capabilities at the French site. This aligns with France’s industrial and energy priorities, especially as Europe seeks to defend strategic manufacturing while reducing carbon emissions.

The possible involvement of Bpifrance also matters. Alba said it is willing to offer the French state-backed investment bank a shareholding position as part of the transaction. Such participation could help align the deal with national industrial policy and support long-term investment at the smelter.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Alba deal shows that European smelting assets remain strategically attractive when they offer scale, customer access, and low-carbon potential. Aluminium Dunkerque is not just a capacity acquisition; it is a gateway into Europe’s industrial decarbonisation agenda.