South32 Copper and Zinc Project Pipeline Targets Looming Supply Gaps

South32

South32 copper and zinc project pipeline is becoming more important as the company positions for tighter metals markets after 2028. The producer said its future greenfield portfolio is focused on copper, zinc, and silver. It may develop up to 25 new copper and zinc-lead-silver projects in the coming years. As a result, South32 copper and zinc project pipeline is being shaped by long-term supply anxiety rather than near-term output changes. 

This matters because South32 did not change its near-term copper and zinc guidance. Instead, it is directing attention to future shortages that may emerge in the late 2020s and early 2030s. The company plans to spend $30mn on greenfield exploration in the 2025-26 financial year. Therefore, South32 copper and zinc project pipeline is a strategic bet on future scarcity, not current market tightness. 

Future Copper Supply Gap Is Driving the Strategic Shift

Future copper supply gap is the clearest reason behind South32’s exploration focus. The company expects global copper demand to exceed supply from around 2028. Its forecast points to an 8mn t shortfall by 2035. Consequently, copper is moving to the center of long-term mining strategy. 

The demand logic is easy to understand. Grid upgrades, renewable energy investment, electrification, and data center construction all support stronger copper use. Other industry forecasters also expect deficits to emerge within the next few years. Therefore, South32 copper and zinc project pipeline aligns with a wider industry view that copper scarcity is becoming harder to avoid. 

This also explains why other large miners are moving in the same direction. Glencore wants to double copper production capacity by the mid-2030s, while Rio Tinto plans to raise copper capacity by 20pc by 2030. That context matters because it shows South32 is not acting alone. Meanwhile, competition for quality copper projects is likely to intensify as the next cycle approaches. 

Zinc Supply Deficit Is Emerging as a Second Strategic Theme

Zinc supply deficit is the second major theme in South32’s outlook. The company expects zinc demand to exceed supply from 2029. Its forecast points to a 4mn t shortfall by 2035. As a result, zinc is no longer just a supporting metal in the company’s pipeline. 

That matters because zinc often receives less attention than copper in electrification discussions. Yet tighter zinc availability can still create meaningful industrial stress across steel, coatings, infrastructure, and broader manufacturing. South32’s decision to keep zinc inside its exploration focus suggests the company sees a more durable structural opportunity. Therefore, South32 copper and zinc project pipeline is diversified around two different future shortages, not one. 

The Metalnomist Commentary

South32 is sending a clear signal that the next mining race will be won through project pipeline quality, not only current production. Copper is the headline metal, but zinc may become the quieter opportunity if deficits develop as projected. If these forecasts hold, greenfield exploration today will define who has supply tomorrow. 

South32 alumina output increase set for FY2026–27 on Worsley expansion

South32

South32 alumina output increase is planned as the miner lifts FY2026–27 production to 5.3mn t. The South32 alumina output increase reflects new, higher-quality bauxite areas approved in Western Australia. As a result, the South32 alumina output increase contrasts with a decline in primary aluminium smelting.

Worsley Alumina lifts throughput as new bauxite areas come online

South32 will raise alumina production to 5.3mn t in FY2026–27. It guided 5.1mn t for FY2024–25 and FY2025–26. The step-up relies on Worsley Alumina’s mine life extension and better bauxite quality. Moreover, the firm will invest $90mn in 2025–26 to support the expansion. Australian federal approval in February unlocked new mining areas. Therefore, Worsley’s feed blend should improve, stabilizing refinery yields and costs. Higher-grade bauxite typically reduces caustic consumption and energy intensity. Consequently, unit costs and carbon intensity can trend lower as ore quality rises.

Aluminium smelting retreats; Chinese bauxite reliance rises

South32’s aluminium output will fall to 885,000t in FY2026–27. It was 1.2mn t last year and 1.1mn t expected in FY2025–26. The Mozal smelter will produce 240,000t by March 2026, then enter care and maintenance. Power constraints drive the pause, curbing ex-China metal supply. However, South32 sees long-term aluminium growth outside China. It expects non-Chinese producers to deliver 90pc of new capacity over the next decade. Meanwhile, China’s refineries will lean more on imported bauxite. South32 projects imports will support 79pc of Chinese alumina output by 2029. That compares with 71pc in 2024, underscoring rising seaborne dependency. As a result, bauxite trade flows and refinery siting remain strategic for decarbonized metals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The alumina uplift at Worsley offsets smelting headwinds and preserves South32’s oxide leverage. Watch unit costs, energy inputs and caustic usage as higher-grade bauxite feeds the circuit. Policy and power reliability will dictate how quickly mothballed smelting capacity can return.

South32 Receives Approval for Alumina Plant Extension: A Strategic Move for Future Growth

South32

South32, a leading Australia-based diversified metals producer, has secured federal government approval to extend the operational life of its Worsley alumina facility. The approval, granted on 12 February 2025, allows the plant to continue operations until 2036, a significant extension from its original end date in 2025. This move marks a strategic step in ensuring the company’s stable alumina production for years to come.

Key Approvals and Expansion Plans

The extension follows a positive decision from the Western Australian state government in December 2024, which granted approval with specific greenhouse gas and ecological conditions. The Worsley facility produces alumina from locally mined bauxite ore. South32 plans to expand its bauxite mining operations to maintain a consistent alumina production rate. By the end of the 2024-25 financial year, South32 expects its share of alumina production to reach 3.75 million tonnes (mn t).

Production Costs and Strategic Adjustments

Despite this positive development, the company has raised its Worsley production cost guidance by 5.2%, from $290 per tonne to $305 per tonne. The increase is primarily due to higher costs associated with purchasing caustic soda, a critical material used in the refining process. This price adjustment reflects the challenges faced in the operational environment, specifically rising material costs.

South32’s Broader Strategy and Challenges

The Worsley extension is part of a broader strategy as South32 navigates ongoing disruptions at its Mozambique-based Mozal Aluminium plant. Despite the expansion, the company has faced significant operational disruptions at Mozal, leading to the withdrawal of production guidance for the 2025 financial year. In contrast, the Worsley plant's stable and growing output positions South32 for continued success in the alumina market.

Previously, South32 expanded the Worsley facility in 2008, increasing its alumina production capacity from 3.25 million tonnes per year to its current level. With the latest extension approval, South32 reinforces its commitment to long-term production sustainability and market presence.

South32 Mozal aluminium smelter idling set for March 2026 after power deal failure

Mozal aluminium

South32 Mozal aluminium smelter idling will begin in mid-March 2026, after the producer failed to secure a new electricity contract. The move places the Mozambique asset under care and maintenance once the current supply agreement expires. As a result, South32 Mozal aluminium smelter idling adds fresh uncertainty to regional aluminium supply and power-intensive industrial strategy.

Mozal’s production guidance for April 2025 to March 2026 remains unchanged at 240,000 tonnes on a South32-attributable basis. South32 holds a 63.7% share of Mozal aluminium. Meanwhile, the company kept its July 2025 to June 2026 aluminium guidance unchanged at 1.12mn tonnes attributable.

Mozal power supply agreement breakdown drives operational reset

The Mozal power supply agreement became the defining risk factor for continued operations. South32 could not secure a replacement contract beyond the current term. Therefore, the company chose to idle the smelter rather than operate with unpriced power exposure.

Smelters require stable, long-term electricity to remain competitive. However, power negotiations often tighten when grids face shortages or pricing volatility. Consequently, Mozambique aluminium smelter shutdown risk rises when contract renewals fail.

Portfolio impacts and alumina redirection signal commercial shift

South32 produced 311,000 tonnes of aluminium in July to September, the first quarter of its fiscal year. Output rose 4% year on year and 1% quarter on quarter. Meanwhile, production included 181,000 tonnes from Hillside, 93,000 tonnes from Mozal, and 37,000 tonnes from Brazil Aluminium.

South32 will also redirect alumina volumes previously shipped from Worsley to Mozal. The company plans to sell that alumina to third-party customers under index-linked pricing agreements. As a result, the commercial response reduces internal demand and preserves refinery sales optionality during the South32 Mozal aluminium smelter idling period.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This decision shows how power contracts now sit at the core of aluminium supply security. However, idling Mozal could tighten regional value chains and reduce Mozambique’s industrial export leverage. Therefore, future restarts will likely depend on bankable, long-duration power terms.

South32 Gemco Manganese Operations Face Cyclone Narelle Supply Risk

South32, Gemco Manganese

South32 Gemco manganese operations are facing renewed weather-related disruption risk as Cyclone Narelle approaches Groote Eylandt in Australia’s Northern Territory. The company is moving non-essential personnel offsite while monitoring the incoming system with local emergency authorities.

The precautionary move comes as Cyclone Narelle is forecast to pass Groote Eylandt on Saturday afternoon. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology expects the cyclone to reach category three strength by that time, bringing stronger wind and rain conditions to the island.

South32 Gemco manganese operations are important to the seaborne manganese ore market because Gemco is a major source of high-grade Australian ore. Any operational disruption could affect supply flows into China, where manganese ore demand is closely tied to steel and alloy production.

Groote Eylandt Weather Risk Returns After Cyclone Megan Disruption

Groote Eylandt has already shown how severe weather can affect manganese supply. South32 paused mining operations at Gemco for four months in March 2024 because of Cyclone Megan, and manganese exports from the site only resumed in May 2025.

That history makes the latest cyclone warning more significant for the market. Even if the current action is only precautionary, buyers and traders will watch closely for any damage to mining, haulage, port infrastructure, or export schedules.

South32 plans to produce 3.2 million tonnes of manganese at Gemco in July 2025-June 2026. Maintaining that output will be important for stabilizing supply after the previous weather-related disruption.

Manganese Ore Market Watches China Demand and Australian Supply

South32 Gemco manganese operations also sit at an important point in the pricing cycle. The company raised its March-delivery Australian 43pc lumpy manganese ore cif China price by $0.10/mtu to $5.20/mtu in late January, citing expectations for stronger Chinese demand after the lunar new year holidays.

Cyclone-related uncertainty could add another layer of support if the market sees a risk to Australian export availability. Manganese ore is essential for steelmaking through ferro-manganese and silico-manganese production, so supply interruptions can quickly influence alloy raw material sentiment.

For now, the key issue is whether Cyclone Narelle causes only a short safety response or a broader operational setback. The market will focus on site access, port conditions, and South32’s ability to maintain shipment schedules after the weather system passes.

The Metalnomist Commentary

South32’s latest move shows that manganese supply risk is increasingly shaped by weather resilience as much as mine capacity. For steel-linked raw materials, reliable logistics from vulnerable export hubs can become a pricing factor overnight.

Hillside Aluminium Smelter Future Hinges on South32 Eskom Power Deal

Hillside Aluminium

Hillside aluminium smelter operations beyond 2031 will depend on a new long-term power agreement between South32 and South African utility Eskom. The companies are negotiating a replacement contract for the KwaZulu-Natal smelter before its current discounted electricity supply arrangement expires.

The Hillside aluminium smelter is one of South Africa’s most important energy-intensive industrial assets. Securing competitively priced power is essential because aluminium smelting depends on stable, large-scale and affordable electricity.

South32 and Eskom have created a working group to explore ways to bring competitively priced renewable energy into South Africa’s national grid. The goal is to support Hillside’s future power needs while also benefiting Eskom’s wider customer base.

The talks come shortly after South32 moved its Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique into care and maintenance after failing to secure a new electricity supply agreement. That decision highlights the strategic risk facing smelters when power contracts expire without a commercially viable replacement.

Power Security Becomes the Main Aluminium Constraint

Electricity is the defining cost factor for primary aluminium. Smelters need continuous power, and even modest changes in tariffs can determine whether production remains competitive.

The Hillside aluminium smelter currently benefits from a discounted power contract that runs until 2031. A new agreement would secure the plant’s operating future beyond that date and reduce uncertainty for workers, suppliers and downstream customers.

South32’s experience at Mozal shows what is at stake. The Mozambican smelter was moved into care and maintenance after its electricity contract expired at the end of March and no new agreement was reached.

That outcome gives urgency to the Hillside negotiations. Without a competitive long-term power solution, South32 could face difficult decisions about one of its key southern African aluminium assets.

For Eskom, the talks also carry wider industrial policy significance. South Africa needs to preserve energy-intensive manufacturing while managing grid constraints, decarbonisation pressure and the transition toward cleaner power.

Renewable Power Could Support Low-Carbon Aluminium

The working group’s focus on renewable energy shows how aluminium supply is becoming tied to decarbonisation. Buyers increasingly want lower-carbon aluminium, especially in automotive, packaging, construction and industrial applications.

A renewable-linked power solution could improve Hillside’s long-term competitiveness. It would help South32 reduce emissions exposure while keeping the smelter connected to South Africa’s industrial base.

However, the challenge is execution. Renewable power must be competitively priced, reliable and integrated into the national grid in a way that supports continuous smelter operations.

The agreement could also set a precedent for other energy-intensive industries in South Africa. If Eskom and South32 can structure a viable low-carbon power model, it may help attract or retain industrial investment in metals, chemicals and manufacturing.

For the aluminium market, the message is clear. Future smelting capacity will depend less on ore or alumina access alone and more on long-term power security, grid reliability and carbon intensity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Hillside power talks show that aluminium competitiveness is now an energy strategy question. South32 and Eskom must prove that South Africa can keep heavy industry alive while moving toward lower-carbon electricity.

South32 Gemco Manganese Exports Resume After Cyclone Megan Recovery

South32

South32 Gemco manganese exports restarted as the Australian metal producer shipped its first ore cargo since early 2024 from the Northern Territory mine. The South32 Gemco manganese exports resumption follows extensive recovery operations after Cyclone Megan damaged the export wharf and flooded mine areas in March 2024, forcing a four-month suspension that disrupted global manganese supply chains and affected key customers including GFG Alliance's Tasmania ferromanganese plant.

Production Recovery Targets Pre-Cyclone Output Levels

South32 Gemco manganese exports began with the loading of 56,606 tonnes aboard the Singapore-flagged Stenia Colossus on May 19th, bound for Tianjin, China according to marine analytics firm Kpler. A second shipment of 54,078 tonnes will depart on the Panamanian-flagged Loch Crinan on May 28th, demonstrating operational momentum recovery. These initial shipments mark the end of a 15-month export hiatus that severely impacted Australian manganese supply to Asian steel markets.

Meanwhile, South32 plans production ramping at Gemco's 6 million tonne annual nameplate capacity facility throughout the 2025-26 financial year. The company achieved 5.9 million tonnes production in 2022-23, the last complete year before Cyclone Megan disrupted operations. Northern Territory government projections indicate 5 million tonnes expected production over the coming year, though South32 has not released official 2025-26 guidance.

Customer Supply Chain Disruptions Highlight Market Dependencies

However, the extended Gemco shutdown created severe supply chain disruptions for downstream customers dependent on Australian manganese ore. GFG Alliance's Liberty Bell Bay ferromanganese plant in Tasmania moved to limited operations on May 19th due to manganese ore supply shortages. This operational reduction demonstrates the critical importance of Gemco's production for regional ferromanganese manufacturing capabilities.

Therefore, the export resumption addresses urgent supply needs across Asia-Pacific steel and ferroalloy markets that experienced significant manganese ore shortages during Gemco's closure. Chinese steel mills particularly depend on Australian manganese imports for steel production, making Gemco's recovery essential for regional supply chain stability. The mine's strategic location in Northern Territory provides efficient shipping access to major Asian industrial centers.

Infrastructure Recovery Enables Full Operational Restart

Furthermore, South32 completed extensive infrastructure repairs including export wharf reconstruction and comprehensive mine dewatering operations during January-March 2025. These recovery investments ensure sustainable long-term operations while improving resilience against future extreme weather events. The company's commitment to full production restoration demonstrates confidence in manganese market fundamentals and customer demand recovery.

As a result, Gemco's operational restart strengthens Australia's position as a critical manganese supplier to global steel industries while reducing supply chain vulnerabilities exposed during the extended shutdown. The successful recovery operations establish operational precedents for managing extreme weather impacts on mining infrastructure. Market participants welcome the supply restoration as global steel production continues recovering from pandemic-related disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The resumption of South32's Gemco manganese exports illustrates both the vulnerability of critical mineral supply chains to extreme weather events and the interconnected nature of global steel production networks. The 15-month disruption's impact on downstream ferromanganese producers like Liberty Bell Bay demonstrates how single-mine shutdowns can cascade through entire industrial sectors, highlighting the need for greater supply chain diversification and resilience planning in critical minerals markets.

South32 Manganese Ore Export Prices Fall as China Demand Weakens

South32 Manganese Ore

South32 manganese ore export prices to China have fallen for June shipments as weak alloy demand, ample port inventories and cautious buying pressure the import market. The Australian diversified metals producer lowered offers for both Australian and South African manganese ore, according to Chinese importers.

South32 manganese ore export prices for Australian 42% lumpy ore fell to $5.40/mtu cif China for June delivery. This was down by $0.50/mtu from May.

South32 also reduced its offer for South African 37% manganese ore to $5/mtu cif China. This was down by $0.40/mtu from the previous month.

South32 manganese ore export prices are an important signal for the wider manganese chain because China remains the largest global buyer of seaborne ore. When Chinese alloy plants slow purchases, overseas miners often need to adjust export offers to maintain sales momentum.

Chinese Alloy Weakness Cuts Restocking Appetite

Chinese importers have shown limited interest in restocking manganese ore because inventories remain sufficient and alloy prices are weakening. This has reduced spot buying urgency before the Labour Day holiday on 1-5 May.

Many alloy plants postponed ore feedstock purchases while waiting for clearer market direction after the holiday. This cautious behaviour has weakened the negotiating position of overseas ore suppliers.

The pressure is also visible in Chinese port prices. Australian 44-46% lumpy manganese ore fell to 43-47 yuan/mtu delivery ex quay on 28 April, down from 47-50 yuan/mtu on 31 March.

The decline shows that domestic buyers are not only resisting new import offers. They are also repricing available port material lower as downstream demand fails to improve.

Manganese ore demand is closely linked to ferro-manganese and silico-manganese production. These alloys are used in steelmaking, where manganese improves strength, deoxidation and performance.

When steel consumption slows, alloy plants reduce purchasing activity. This immediately affects ore demand because manganese alloy producers are the main consumers of imported ore.

Steel Demand Remains the Main Constraint

The deeper issue is weak steel demand in China. Slower economic growth and subdued construction activity have limited recovery in steel consumption, leaving alloy producers cautious about raw material buying.

Without a stronger steel recovery, manganese alloy prices are likely to remain under pressure. This limits the ability of alloy plants to pay higher ore prices, even when miners try to defend margins.

South32’s price cut also reflects wider seaborne competition. Mining firms outside China need to respond when Chinese buyers have enough stock and are unwilling to chase cargoes.

Australian high-grade lumpy ore usually commands stronger interest because of its quality and processing value. However, even higher-grade material can weaken when alloy margins are poor and port inventories are sufficient.

South African ore also remains exposed to Chinese demand swings. Lower-grade material can face sharper price pressure when buyers reduce procurement and focus only on immediate needs.

For the manganese market, the June price cut suggests that miners are prioritising volume discipline and customer access over holding elevated offers. The next price direction will depend on whether Chinese alloy plants return after the holiday with real restocking demand.

If steel demand remains weak, manganese ore prices could face further downside pressure. If alloy prices stabilise and inventories fall, importers may resume buying, but recovery is likely to be gradual.

The Metalnomist Commentary

South32’s price cut shows that the manganese market is being driven by demand absorption, not supply shortage. Until Chinese steel and alloy demand improves, seaborne manganese ore suppliers will remain exposed to cautious restocking and lower port prices.

South32 Resumes Alumina Delivery to Mozal Smelter Amid Mozambique Unrest

South32

Australian mining giant South32 has resumed alumina deliveries to its Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique following the easing of road blockages caused by civil unrest. The company announced on December 18 that it has restarted transportation as the situation stabilizes. This comes after riots and road disruptions erupted in Mozambique’s major cities due to allegations of electoral fraud in the October presidential elections.

The unrest had temporarily halted the supply of raw materials from ports to the smelter, prompting South32 to withdraw its FY2025 production guidance for the Mozal facility. However, aluminium exports from the smelter to customers have reportedly remained stable during this period. Over the coming days, South32 aims to rebuild its alumina stockpile at the smelter, assuming the political situation remains calm.

Potential Risks and Contingency Plans

The outlook for uninterrupted operations remains uncertain as Mozambique’s Constitutional Council is expected to announce the election results on December 23. Any resurgence in unrest could disrupt raw material deliveries once again.

If logistical issues persist, South32 may consider scaling back operations at the Mozal smelter. In such a scenario, the company plans to redirect alumina from its Worsley Alumina refinery in Australia to third-party buyers at prevailing market prices. This contingency highlights South32’s efforts to mitigate risks and maintain its operational and financial stability amid external challenges.

Stable Aluminium Exports Despite Unrest

Despite the disruptions to raw material supplies, aluminium exports from the Mozal smelter have remained consistent. This reflects the company’s commitment to fulfilling customer contracts even amid adverse conditions. The Mozal smelter, a key asset in South32’s portfolio, is strategically significant as a supplier of aluminium for global markets.

South32 Mozal aluminium smelter review signals power risk

South32

South32 Mozal aluminium smelter review addresses severe electricity uncertainty in Mozambique. South32 Mozal aluminium smelter review includes a likely value write-down. South32 Mozal aluminium smelter review could trigger a production halt by March 2026.

Mozal faces expiring power contracts with HCB and Eskom in March 2026. The 580,000 t/yr smelter remains exposed to unresolved tariff and supply terms. Therefore, management will reassess the 2025–26 production target and asset value.

Power contract risk and production outlook

Negotiations with HCB, Eskom, and the government have dragged for six years. As a result, South32 warns of a potential shutdown if no deal emerges. The company expects a partial write-down in 2024–25 financial results. Meanwhile, civil unrest forced guidance withdrawal in late 2024. South32 later reset guidance to 350,000 t on an equity basis. It produced 314,000 t in 2023–24 on the same basis.

Mozal’s review spans cash costs, curtailment plans, and capex timing. However, firm terms could still stabilize output through 2026. Immediate focus remains contract certainty and reliable hydropower allocation. Therefore, customers should prepare for supply variability and lead-time changes.

Market context and global smelter pressures

Aluminium smelters consume massive power and face volatile tariffs. Similar pressures hit Rio Tinto’s Tomago and Tiwai Point sites. Energy costs and grid constraints drive curtailments and policy requests. Consequently, price risk and carbon strategies shape smelter competitiveness.

Downstream buyers weigh premiums, logistics, and ESG footprints. Secure contracts can de-risk billet and slab availability. Therefore, procurement teams should diversify sources and hedge exposures now.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Power certainty will decide Mozal’s utilization and margin path. A bankable contract could avoid curtailment and protect regional employment. Watch tariff structure, indexation clauses, and contingency planning through 2026.

South32 to Study Steam Electrification at Worsley Alumina Refinery

South32 Alumina emissions

The Australian miner aims to cut emissions using electric steam solutions at its largest alumina facility.

South32 to Study Steam Electrification at Worsley Alumina Refinery

South32 has launched a pre-feasibility study to explore steam electrification pathways at its 3.7mn t/yr Worsley alumina refinery in Western Australia. The study is supported by A$4.4mn ($2.85mn) in funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (Arena) and will assess four decarbonization options, including mechanical vapour recompression and electric boilers.

The alumina industry is Australia’s largest consumer of process heat and emitted 15mn t of CO2e in 2021, with 70% of these emissions resulting from fossil-fuel-powered steam generation. South32 has already shifted part of Worsley’s energy mix from coal to gas due to local coal supply issues, but steam electrification could drive further emissions reduction.

South32 aims to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and reduce operational emissions by 50% by 2035 from 2021 levels. Arena’s funding aligns with its Industrial Transformation Stream program, designed to help existing industrial facilities lower emissions while boosting technological readiness. Notably, Worsley produced 3.18mn t of CO2e in FY2023–2024, earning 117,189 safeguard mechanism credits (SMCs) for staying below its emissions baseline.

The Metalnomist Commentary

South32’s Worsley decarbonization study marks a critical step in Australia’s broader industrial emissions strategy. As steam generation accounts for the majority of alumina refining emissions, electrification could set a precedent for the global sector’s low-carbon transition.

South32 exits nickel market with Cerro Matoso sale to Corex

South32

South32 exits nickel market with the sale of Cerro Matoso to Corex. The deal is valued at up to $100 million. It ends South32’s nickel exposure after a strategic review. However, closing requires regulatory approvals and conditions.

Deal structure and recent performance

Corex will pay up to $80 million, linked to future nickel prices. It may pay up to $20 million, tied to project permits. Therefore, proceeds depend on both the market and permitting outcomes.

Cerro Matoso produced 40,600 tonnes of payable nickel in 2023–24. The mine expected 35,000 tonnes in 2024–25, per April guidance. Production results for 2024–25 remain undisclosed.

Strategy shift and market context

South32 exits nickel market to concentrate on copper and zinc growth. Meanwhile, it continues manganese mining in Australia and South Africa. It resumed Gemco exports in May after flood damage earlier in 2024. As a result, portfolio risk tilts toward copper, zinc, and manganese.

Industry peers are also reshaping portfolios under weak nickel prices. Anglo American plans to spin off nickel, coal, and diamonds. Therefore, South32 exits nickel market in line with sector consolidation.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Full divestment simplifies South32’s capital allocation and cost focus. Execution risk now centers on closing conditions and handover stability. Watch Corex’s investment plan and ferronickel margins through 2025.

South32 aluminium output rises as alumina holds steady

South32

South32 aluminium output rose in FY2024–25 as alumina held steady. South32 aluminium output reached 1.2mn t, up 6.4% year over year. South32 aluminium output guidance for 2025–26 sits at a cautious 880,000 t. Meanwhile, alumina guidance is 5.11mn t on an equity basis.

Aluminium beats targets, but Mozal risk clouds outlook

Output exceeded plans at Brazil and Mozambique smelters. Brazil produced 138,000 t, up 33%, as the site ramped. Mozal delivered 355,000 t, up 13%, despite persistent grid uncertainty. However, Hillside slipped to 718,000 t after power cuts. Management warns Mozal could shut by March 2026 without a power deal.

Alumina stable amid Worsley constraints and Brazil gains

Group alumina production held at 5.07mn t, just shy of target. Brazil Alumina rose 4.2% to 1.34mn t despite wet weather. The 2025–26 target is 1.36mn t, matching current run-rate. Worsley produced 3.73mn t, down 1%, on bauxite mining limits. Regulators cleared a mine life extension to 2036 in February. Even so, higher Worsley output arrives in 2026–27 after expansion works. The company plans 3.8mn t at Worsley in 2025–26.

The Metalnomist Commentary

South32’s aluminium story is a tale of strength and fragility. Power security will decide Mozal’s future and shape guidance certainty. Alumina resilience helps, but Worsley’s uplift hinges on bauxite and execution.

South32 Maintains 2024-25 Production Guidance, Excluding Mozal Aluminium

South32

Diversified Miner Reports Stable Output Across Key Assets

South32 has reaffirmed its 2024-25 production guidance for most of its operations, excluding Mozal Aluminium in Mozambique due to transportation disruptions from civil unrest. The Australian-based miner continues to ramp up production across its aluminium, copper, nickel, zinc, and manganese operations despite regional challenges.

Mozal Aluminium Faces Uncertainty Amid Civil Unrest

South32’s Mozal Aluminium smelter produced 90,000 tonnes of aluminium in Q4 2024, marking a 2.3% increase from the previous quarter. However, ongoing violent protests in Mozambique have led to the withdrawal of production guidance. While production and exports remain operational, raw material transportation remains disrupted.

Aluminium and Alumina Production Remains Strong

• Brazil Aluminium (40% South32 ownership): Q4 2024 output increased 13% quarter-over-quarter to 34,000 tonnes. Production guidance remains 130,000 t/yr.
• Hillside Aluminium (South Africa, 100% ownership): Production remained steady at 182,000 tonnes, with guidance unchanged at 720,000 t/yr.
• Brazil Alumina (36% South32 ownership): Q4 2024 production rose 4.2% to 348,000 tonnes, with guidance steady at 1.35 million t/yr.
• Worsley Alumina (Western Australia, 86% ownership): Production surged 18% to 1 million tonnes after maintenance, with 2024-25 guidance at 3.75 million t/yr.

Copper, Zinc, Nickel, and Manganese Performance

• Sierra Gorda Copper Mine (Chile, 45% ownership): Payable copper production rose 10% to 24,300 tonnes due to higher grades and improved molybdenum recovery. Guidance remains 84,800 t/yr.
• Cannington Zinc Mine (Australia, 100% ownership): Zinc output surged 50% to 79,200 tonnes, driven by higher plant throughput and improved silver and lead grades. Guidance holds at 265,400 t/yr.
• Cerro Matoso Nickel Mine (Colombia, 99.9% ownership): Nickel production rose 15% to 9,900 tonnes with improved plant utilization. Guidance remains 35,000 t/yr.
• Gemco Manganese Mine (Australia, 60% ownership): Production resumed after Cyclone Megan, reaching 639,000 tonnes.
• Hotazel Manganese Mine (South Africa, 54.6% ownership): Output declined 19% to 485,000 tonnes due to a temporary shutdown at Wessels mine.

Green Aluminium Incentives and Industry Outlook

The Australian government has pledged A$2 billion in production credits to support aluminium producers transitioning to renewable energy by 2036. The Green Aluminium Production Credit will be available from 2028-29 for up to 10 years, though specific details remain undisclosed.

South32’s production stability, despite regional disruptions, positions it strongly within the evolving global metals market.

South32 Withdraws Production Guidance for Mozal Aluminium Amid Mozambique Unrest

South32

South32 has suspended its production guidance for the Mozal Aluminium smelter in Mozambique due to disruptions caused by ongoing civil unrest, affecting the transport of raw materials.

Production Challenges at Mozal Aluminium

Australian mining giant South32 Limited has withdrawn its production guidance for the Mozal Aluminium smelter, citing disruptions caused by riots and road blockages in Mozambique. The unrest, which began after allegations of electoral fraud in the October presidential election, has spread across major cities, including the capital Maputo, where the smelter is located, 20km to the west.

The protests have disrupted the transport of critical raw materials to the Mozal facility, creating significant operational challenges. While South32 has implemented contingency plans to mitigate the impact, the company has not disclosed further details regarding these measures.

Impact on Aluminium Production

Prior to these disruptions, Mozal Aluminium was projected to produce 360,000 tonnes of aluminium for the 2025 financial year. The withdrawal of guidance reflects the uncertainty surrounding the stability of operations at the smelter amid ongoing unrest. Mozal Aluminium, a key player in Mozambique’s industrial sector, significantly contributes to both local employment and the global aluminium market.

Broader Context and Regional Implications

The unrest in Mozambique, sparked by allegations of electoral fraud, has raised concerns about the broader stability of the region’s economic activities. For the aluminium industry, disruptions at a major smelter like Mozal Aluminium can ripple through the global supply chain, potentially tightening supply in an already volatile market.

South32 has emphasized its commitment to ensuring the safety of its workforce and securing its operations, but the situation underscores the challenges of operating in politically unstable regions. As the company monitors developments, the resolution of the unrest will be critical for the resumption of normal operations and the restoration of production targets.

South32 Secures State Approval for Worsley Alumina Mine Expansion

South32

Australian mining giant South32 has received state government approval to expand its Worsley Alumina mine in Western Australia, the company announced on December 20, 2024. The project, endorsed by Western Australia's environment minister, involves expanding bauxite mining operations and constructing new transport corridors to enhance connectivity between existing and future mining areas.

While the project has cleared state-level environmental approval, it still requires federal approval, which is expected in early 2025.

Strengthening Global Alumina Supply

South32 is a key player in the global alumina market, operating at two major sites:

• The Worsley Alumina mine in Western Australia, which produced 3.77 million tonnes (t) of alumina in the 2024 financial year.

• The Mineração Rio do Norte (MRN) mine in Brazil, which contributed 1.29 million tonnes in the same period.

The expansion of Worsley Alumina is expected to bolster South32’s production capacity, reinforcing its position in the global aluminum supply chain amid rising demand for low-carbon alumina.

US Defense Stake in Trilogy Metals Signals Strategic Copper Push

Trilogy Metals

US defense stake in Trilogy Metals marks a new phase in American critical minerals policy. The US Department of Defense will acquire a 10pc equity position in Trilogy Metals through a $35.6mn investment, directly supporting the Upper Kobuk Minerals Projects in Alaska. This US defense stake in Trilogy Metals aligns with Washington’s broader effort to secure domestic supplies of copper, zinc, lead and cobalt for energy transition and defense applications. The funding targets early-stage exploration and development, giving the government a financial foothold in a key North American resource district.

US defense stake in Trilogy Metals reshapes project governance

The share deal will significantly reshape the ownership and governance structure around the Ambler district assets. Trilogy, South32 and their joint venture vehicle Ambler Metals have agreed that the DOD will purchase 16.4mn Trilogy shares, split evenly between new issuance and stock sold by South32. As a result, the US defense stake in Trilogy Metals will include a 10pc holding in the company plus a transferred 10-year call option over an additional 6.2mn shares. In parallel, the DOD gains the right to appoint an independent director to Trilogy’s board for three years, embedding strategic oversight at the governance level. This board presence reinforces how the US defense stake in Trilogy Metals goes beyond financing and moves into influence over long-term project direction.

Ambler Access road and permitting move to the forefront

The investment also targets the bottlenecks that have slowed development of the Ambler district. The partners and the US government plan to collaborate on permitting, financing and construction of the Ambler Access road, linking the remote Upper Kobuk Minerals Projects to the Dalton Highway. As a result, the package couples capital with political support for a key piece of Arctic infrastructure. The parties also intend to pursue expedited mine permitting, although environmental and community scrutiny in Alaska remains intense. If successful, the integrated approach could shave years off the path to first production and turn the Ambler district into a meaningful copper and zinc supplier for North American smelters.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This transaction shows how security concerns are pulling US government capital directly into junior mining equity, not just downstream refining. For Trilogy and South32, the partnership de-risks infrastructure and permitting, but it will likely raise expectations on ESG performance and project transparency. The Ambler district could become a test case for whether state-backed critical minerals strategies can overcome the permitting gridlock that has stalled many US copper projects.

DOD Stake in Trilogy Metals: US Backs Alaska Copper and Critical Minerals

White House: Alaska mining

The DOD stake in Trilogy Metals marks a strategic US move into Alaska’s Upper Kobuk Minerals Projects. The DOD stake in Trilogy Metals brings $35.6mn to advance copper, zinc, lead, and cobalt resources. As a result, the DOD stake in Trilogy Metals aligns defense supply chains with domestic critical mineral development.

Why the deal matters for US critical minerals

The US Department of Defense will buy 10pc of Trilogy Metals. The purchase includes 16.4mn shares and a 10-year call option. South32 will transfer its option and sell part of its holding. The DOD may appoint a board director for three years. This structure strengthens governance and long-term offtake optionality. It also signals federal intent to accelerate strategic metals projects.

Path to development: UKMP and Ambler Access road

The UKMP sits in Alaska’s Ambler mining district. Trilogy and South32 jointly own Ambler Metals. The partners and Washington will coordinate on permitting and financing. They will also pursue expedited mine approvals. The Ambler Access road would link the district to the Dalton Highway. That logistics link remains the key unlock for project economics.

Copper focus with multi-metal upside

Copper leads the project’s value proposition. However, zinc, lead, and cobalt add revenue diversity. US policy now prioritizes resilient energy transition supply chains. This deal connects that policy to on-the-ground execution. It also broadens capital access for US-anchored base-metal assets. The DOD investment reduces perceived permitting risk for lenders.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Defense participation de-risks early-stage funding and accelerates timelines. If the Ambler Access road advances, project financing options should multiply. Expect midstream talks on concentrates and potential US refining routes to follow.

Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund Pressures Miners on Environmental Performance

Norwegian fund

Norges Bank to engage Rio Tinto and South32 over Amazon bauxite mine

Norwegian wealth fund mining engagement is intensifying as the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund targets environmental risks tied to major mining firms. Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), which oversees Norway’s $1.8 trillion fund, announced it will engage Rio Tinto and South32 over serious environmental concerns related to their joint bauxite mining operations in the Amazon.

Environmental concerns prompt active ownership, not exclusion

While the fund’s ethics council recommended exclusion, NBIM chose instead to pursue active ownership over the next 5–10 years. The companies’ involvement in environmentally sensitive mining areas poses “an unacceptable risk” of severe damage, the fund noted. This shift signals a more interventionist strategy focused on influencing corporate behavior rather than immediate divestment.

Meanwhile, the fund reversed its 2020 exclusion of German utility RWE, citing credible progress on coal phase-out and renewable energy expansion. RWE will now remain under observation rather than full exclusion.

Climate alignment remains a key investment mandate

Norway’s finance ministry mandates that all fund investments align with the Paris Agreement’s net-zero goals. The fund reported a 30% reduction in financed emissions from 2017 to 2024 and has excluded or monitored nearly 200 companies, many tied to coal-related activities. The ongoing Norwegian wealth fund mining engagement reflects a broader climate-risk approach to portfolio stewardship.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Norway’s sovereign fund is signaling that climate accountability is no longer optional for global miners. By leveraging shareholder engagement instead of divestment, the fund aims to enforce ESG performance in high-impact sectors without relinquishing influence over corporate governance.

Ferroglobe Sees Boost in Q2 Silicon and Manganese Alloy Sales Following French Plant Restart

Ferroglobe, a leading Spanish producer of silicon and ferro-alloys, reported a significant rise in sales volumes and earnings for the second quarter of 2024, primarily driven by the resumption of operations at its French facilities in April. The restart bolstered production levels, resulting in a 124% increase in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), reaching $57.7 million for the quarter. However, this figure reflects a 44% decline compared to the same period last year.

Silicon metal shipments surged to 62,872 tons, marking a 24.1% year-on-year increase and an 18.2% rise from the first quarter of 2024. This growth was largely attributed to stronger sales in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The average sales price for silicon metal also saw a modest 2.8% increase from the previous quarter, reaching $3,244 per ton, though it remained 15.8% lower than in the previous year.

Despite a decrease in demand in the U.S., shipments of silicon-based alloys reached 46,953 tons, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year and 8.2% from the first quarter. Nonetheless, the average selling price for these alloys rose by 2.4% to $2,241 per ton in the April-June period.

Manganese-based alloys experienced a significant boost, with shipments totaling 81,464 tons, up 30.2% from the previous year and 30.7% from the previous quarter. The average sales price for these alloys increased by 12.9% to $1,204 per ton.

Ferroglobe's strategic decision to increase manganese ore purchases in the first quarter, taking advantage of a market disruption caused by weather-related shutdowns of South32's manganese ore mine in northern Australia, allowed the company to secure ore at below-current market costs.

Looking ahead, Ferroglobe anticipates that higher prices for its metals and alloys will positively impact its performance in the third quarter. However, the company remains cautious, noting that market dynamics may shift following the end of the summer holiday period in Europe.