Eurofer Warns of Fourth Consecutive Year of EU Steel Demand Recession

Eurofer

Steel Market Weakness Deepens Amid Tariff Pressure and Global Overcapacity

The European Steel Association (Eurofer) forecasts that EU apparent steel consumption will contract by 0.9% in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline. This represents a sharp reversal from its earlier prediction of 2.2% growth. Steel-using sectors are also projected to shrink by 0.5%, instead of the 1.6% recovery previously expected.

Eurofer cites the new U.S. 50% tariffs on steel as a significant additional burden on an already fragile market. Global overcapacity, high energy costs, and geopolitical tensions continue to erode the competitiveness of EU steelmakers. As a result, producers may face capacity closures, job losses, and delays in decarbonisation investments.

The association now expects any demand recovery to be postponed until the first quarter of 2026, contingent on improvements in global economic conditions. If no resolution is reached between the EU and U.S. over tariffs, Eurofer urges the European Commission to enact emergency trade measures under its Steel and Metals Action Plan.

In 2024, EU apparent steel consumption declined by 1.1%, while domestic deliveries fell 2%. Steel-using industries, particularly automotive and construction, contracted by 3.7%, intensifying the sector’s challenges.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Eurofer’s outlook underscores the compounding impact of trade disputes, structural overcapacity, and energy costs on Europe’s steel industry. Without swift trade safeguards and competitive energy pricing, EU steelmakers risk losing ground to global rivals, jeopardising both jobs and decarbonisation goals.