U.S. Tariff Hike Puts Pressure on China’s Tantalum Feedstock Market

Tantalum

The recent U.S. decision to impose a 25% tariff on Chinese unwrought tantalum is set to create significant challenges for the tantalum feedstock market. This move, part of the Section 301 tariffs, will come into effect on September 27, having been delayed from August. The new tariffs will impact the demand for tantalum feedstock materials, including ores, pentoxide, and potassium fluotantalate, creating uncertainty within the market.

Impact of U.S. Tariff on Chinese Exports

China has long been a leading supplier of unwrought tantalum to the U.S., responsible for around 40% of total U.S. imports of this critical material between 2020 and mid-September 2024. In the first seven months of 2024 alone, the U.S. imported 177 tons of unwrought tantalum, a figure that already surpasses the total imports for all of 2023.

However, the volume of Chinese tantalum exported to the U.S. has been steadily declining. The U.S. imported 321 tons in 2023, a 56% drop from the 730 tons imported in 2022. Of this, only 131 tons came from China, marking the lowest level in years. This downward trend is likely to accelerate further as the tariffs come into effect, prompting U.S. buyers to reconsider their reliance on Chinese tantalum.

Lower Demand for Tantalum Feedstock

As a result of the anticipated reduction in downstream demand, producers of tantalum feedstock in China are already feeling the pressure. For instance, Chinese potassium fluotantalate producers have reported receiving lower bids from tantalum smelters in recent days. Bid prices have dropped to approximately ¥830-840/kg, down from ¥850/kg before the mid-autumn holiday in mid-September.

The electronics industry, a major consumer of tantalum, is also likely to be affected. Some companies are now required to avoid sourcing tantalite from Africa due to a dispute between the International Tin Supply Chain Initiative (ITSCI) and the Responsible Minerals Initiative (RMI). This dispute, combined with the U.S. tariff hike, is leading to further hesitation among tantalum smelters to source feedstock from Africa.

Chinese Smelters' Response and Outlook

Despite the current challenges, some Chinese smelters are optimistic about domestic supply. “We are not short of feedstock because there is ample tantalum scrap feedstock supply, which is sufficient to feed China’s domestic tantalum production,” commented a source from a South China-based smelter. However, many smelters and traders remain cautious, focusing on fulfilling domestic orders while closely monitoring global market developments.

With the U.S. tariff hike set to take effect, the outlook for China's tantalum feedstock market remains uncertain. Tantalum suppliers are attempting to raise their prices, but market participants believe the increased tariffs will make it difficult to conclude new deals at elevated prices.

As the U.S. prepares to implement its new tariffs on Chinese tantalum, the ripple effects are being felt throughout the supply chain. From lower demand in the electronics sector to falling bid prices for feedstock, the market faces a challenging road ahead. While Chinese producers remain resilient with alternative feedstock sources, the long-term impact of the tariffs could reshape global supply chains and market dynamics.

US Antimony Montana mining advances with new claims and smelter expansion

US Antimony Montana Mining

US Antimony Montana mining accelerates as the company reacquires claims near its Montana smelter. It will start mining immediately on five acres. It will seek federal and state permits to expand exploration. The move aligns mining with adjacent midstream capacity.

Permits, smelters, and production scale

The company operates North America’s only two antimony smelters. It restarted the Madero smelter in April. It plans to expand the Montana smelter six-fold to 300 t per month. These steps strengthen feed-to-smelter integration.

Supply security and market backdrop

US Antimony aims to secure domestic stibnite ore and reduce import risk. China recently blocked a stibnite shipment from Australia. Therefore, the firm is reshoring supply to support its Mexican and US smelters. This strategy improves control across midstream and downstream steps.

Meanwhile, new Montana claims complement operations in Alaska acquired in February. The portfolio now spans mining, smelting, and processing. US Antimony Montana mining thus underpins a broader North American network. That network targets defense, flame retardants, and lead-acid batteries.

The Metalnomist Commentary

If the Montana expansion delivers, domestic supply security will improve across North America. Watch permit timing, mine productivity, and smelter bottlenecks as capacity scales.

Chinese Tantalum Smelters Push Back Against Rising Tantalite Feedstock Prices

Tantalum

Supply tightness and weak US demand cap upside despite recent price gains

Chinese tantalum smelters are resisting recent increases in tantalite feedstock prices, citing tight profit margins and weak downstream demand. Although prices for tantalite have been climbing since late January, smelters are holding firm due to ongoing cost pressures and limited pricing power.

For now, this standoff is unlikely to disrupt near-term production. Most Chinese smelters still maintain adequate inventories of tantalite and are operating steadily. However, rising feedstock costs are squeezing margins, especially since smelters have been unable to lift their offers for key intermediates like potassium fluotantalate and tantalum pentoxide.

African supply disruptions and speculative trading drive short-term volatility

Supply disruptions in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have fueled short-term price speculation in the market. Armed conflict in the region has disrupted mining operations and reduced material flow, prompting traders to raise spot offers.

However, other African suppliers—including those outside Rwanda and the DRC—are stepping in to meet demand. Market participants expect that increasing alternative supply and cautious downstream buying will limit any significant upside in tantalite prices.

US tariffs weaken Chinese exports, limit demand outlook

China’s tantalum export outlook has deteriorated due to weakened demand from its largest buyer—the United States. Since September 2024, US importers have scaled back purchases following the implementation of a 25% tariff on unwrought tantalum exports from China.

This policy shift, introduced under former President Joe Biden’s administration, has significantly reduced orders for key Chinese producers. Currently, the US accounts for approximately 50% of China’s tantalum exports, making this a critical concern for the sector.

Without a reversal in trade policy or a pickup in global demand, Chinese smelters are expected to tread cautiously in their procurement strategies throughout 2025.

US Antimony Revenue Doubles as Critical Mineral Demand Surges

US Antimony

US Antimony Corporation achieved remarkable financial performance in the first quarter, with revenue more than doubling to $7 million compared to the same period last year. The mining and processing company's impressive growth reflects surging antimony prices and significant operational improvements across its North American facilities.

Strong Financial Performance Driven by Strategic Market Position

Antimony sales dominated the company's revenue stream, generating $5.9 million and accounting for approximately 84% of total quarterly revenue. This substantial increase transformed the company's financial outlook dramatically. Net income reached $546,524, a striking turnaround from the $322,768 loss recorded in the first quarter of 2023.

The company's success stems from its unique market position as the operator of North America's only two antimony smelters. This exclusive status provides US Antimony with significant competitive advantages in a market where antimony serves critical applications including flame retardants, military equipment, and lead-antimony alloys for batteries and cables.

Expansion Plans Signal Continued Growth Trajectory

US Antimony expects second quarter revenue to climb further following the April restart of its Madero smelter in Mexico. Meanwhile, the company announced ambitious expansion plans for its Montana facility, targeting a six-fold capacity increase to 300 tons per month. These operational enhancements position the company to capitalize on growing demand for this critical mineral.

Therefore, the company's strategic acquisitions continue to strengthen its supply chain. US Antimony plans to begin sourcing antimony ore from Alaska in the second quarter, following its $5.25 million acquisition of additional antimony mining claims in Alaska during January. This vertical integration strategy reduces supply chain risks while expanding production capabilities.

However, the company's smaller zeolite division remains a minor revenue contributor compared to its core antimony operations. As a result, US Antimony's growth strategy focuses primarily on expanding antimony production capacity and securing additional ore sources.

The Metalnomist Commentary

US Antimony's exceptional Q1 performance underscores the critical importance of domestic mineral processing capabilities amid global supply chain uncertainties. The company's monopolistic position in North American antimony smelting, combined with strategic capacity expansions, positions it to capitalize on sustained demand for this essential defense and industrial mineral.

US Aluminum Supply Flat in November as Plate, Sheet and Bar Imports Surge

US Aluminum

Secondary Smelters Cut Output While New Scrap Drives Melting Growth

US aluminum supply remained virtually unchanged year-over-year in November 2024, totaling 699,000 metric tonnes (t), according to the latest US Geological Survey (USGS) data. Although overall supply edged up by just 1,000t compared to November 2023, imports of aluminum plate, sheet, and bar surged by 36%, supporting stability in the market.

The only supply category to show a year-on-year increase was plate, sheet, and bar imports, which rose by 29,000t to 110,000t. In contrast, crude aluminum metals and alloy imports declined by 14,000t to 263,000t, while domestic primary production dipped by 6,000t to 55,000t. This trend signals continued reliance on semi-fabricated imports amid weaker domestic output.

Secondary Smelters Lead Drop in Consumption and Recovery

Total aluminum consumption in November fell by 8,000t to 335,000t. Metal recovery dropped in tandem, falling 7,000t to 271,000t. Secondary smelters led the decline, reducing consumption by 5,000t to 205,000t and recovery by 4,000t to 153,000t. Independent mill fabricators also reduced consumption and recovery by 3,000t each.

However, year-to-date trends showed modest gains. Total aluminum consumption and recovery both rose by 50,000t in the first 11 months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, reaching 3.93 million tonnes and 3.21 million tonnes, respectively.

New Scrap Supports Melting Increases Despite Alloy Production Drop

Scrap utilization also shifted notably. In November, total aluminum scrap melted or consumed rose to 288,000t, up 4,000t from a year earlier. New scrap drove this increase, rising by 7,000t to 187,000t, while old scrap declined by 3,000t to 116,000t.

Cumulative data from January through November 2024 show total aluminum melted or consumed hit 3.399 million tonnes, up from 3.21 million tonnes a year earlier. New scrap increased by 159,000t, while old scrap rose by 30,000t.

Nevertheless, aluminum alloy production at secondary smelters fell. November’s total dropped by 3,400t to 91,400t. Production of 380 alloy and its variations declined 2,700t to 17,600t, while wrought alloys and extrusion billets rose slightly by 700t to 61,900t. Year-to-date alloy output fell by 43,000t, led by a 23,000t drop in 380 alloy production.

Bushveld Mineral

South African Output Cuts to Boost China's Vanadium-Nitrogen Exports

Rising Exports Driven by Lower South African Production and Strong US Demand

China’s vanadium-nitrogen exports are expected to see significant growth in 2025, primarily due to output cuts from a major South African producer, increasing demand from the US, and strong export interest from Chinese producers. Market participants anticipate a boost in global vanadium-nitrogen trade, benefiting China’s export numbers.

Impact of South African Output Cuts on Global Vanadium-Nitrogen Supply

South African vanadium-nitrogen production has been notably impacted by ongoing equipment maintenance at Bushveld Minerals Vametco plant. From mid-December to March 2025, the plant will operate at reduced capacity due to a cash shortage. In 2024, Bushveld’s production fell by 19%, amounting to 1,387 tonnes. This reduction in South African output is expected to continue in 2025, with the producer operating at low run rates due to negative profit margins. Consequently, China is positioned to capitalize on these cuts by increasing its exports.

Global vanadium-nitrogen alloy production is heavily concentrated in China and South Africa, with other countries lacking the necessary technology due to intellectual property restrictions. While European and US steel mills often prefer using ferro-vanadium (80% grade) over vanadium-nitrogen, China’s export increase in vanadium-nitrogen reflects changing dynamics in the alloy market.

Surge in China’s Vanadium-Nitrogen Exports and US Market Demand

China’s vanadium-nitrogen exports more than doubled in 2024, reaching 2,523 tonnes, up from 945 tonnes in 2023. This growth can be attributed to South Africa’s lower output and China’s expanded export activities. Notably, in December 2024, China’s vanadium-nitrogen exports surged five-fold to 377 tonnes, compared to just 67 tonnes a year earlier.

The US was the largest buyer of Chinese vanadium-nitrogen in 2024, importing 892 tonnes, more than double the 335 tonnes purchased in 2023. Canada also saw a dramatic increase in imports, with 323 tonnes imported, a more than five-fold rise from 60 tonnes in 2023. India’s demand also increased by 69%, reaching 317 tonnes in 2024. The US demand for vanadium-nitrogen is expected to continue to rise, as the US government, under President Trump, has pledged to boost domestic construction activities, which will likely increase the demand for steel alloys.

Export Prices and Market Dynamics

Chinese export prices for vanadium-nitrogen are currently in the range of $20.30 to $21 per kilogram, lower than European prices of $23.80 to $24.20 per kilogram. Chinese smelters are more inclined to sell to overseas markets to address domestic oversupply issues. In 2024, China produced 41,500 tonnes of vanadium-nitrogen, surpassing domestic steel mills' consumption of 34,800 tonnes. However, some alloy smelters reduced production from 2023 levels due to negative profit margins and weaker steel demand.

US Antimony feedstock sourcing expands to secure smelter supply

US Antimony feedstock

US Antimony feedstock sourcing broadened across the US and overseas to stabilize operations. The company moved to secure inputs for its Montana and Mexico smelters. As a result, it advanced domestic mining claims and lined up new international suppliers. However, it also flagged issues with Australian material quality and logistics.

Domestic expansion: Alaska and Montana

US Antimony feedstock sourcing grew with new Alaska claims, including a 150-acre site near Fairbanks. The firm expects faster permitting since the land is neither federal nor state. Meanwhile, reacquired claims beside its Montana smelter should deliver stibnite within months. Therefore, domestic ore should lower supply risk and trucking distances.

International diversification: Bolivia and Chad

Bolivia will supply up to 150 t/month of antimony flake starting in early 2026. A 10 t pilot shipment arrives at the Montana smelter in August. Additionally, two sources in Chad will feed the Madero smelter, starting with 80 t. Subsequent deliveries should reach 100 t/month to support steady throughput. Canada also lifted feedstock to 857 t year-to-date, up 121 percent.

Australian sourcing faces setbacks following a 50 t shipment held 82 days by Chinese customs. Concurrently, incoming ore showed elevated arsenic and iron, pressuring processing costs. However, broader sourcing and scrap blending can offset penalties and maintain recoveries. Therefore, the portfolio approach underpins more reliable antimony supply for strategic markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Diversification is the right hedge as geopolitics and impurities raise feedstock risk. Watch ramp discipline in Bolivia and Chad and impurity management in Montana. If logistics hold, US Antimony can claw back margin despite uneven market conditions.

Copper Exempted from US Tariffs Amid Ongoing Supply Chain Probe

Copper Tariff

President Trump Exempts Copper as Section 232 Investigations Continue

In a significant development, copper and its derivatives were spared from additional tariffs in President Donald Trump's recent sweeping tariff announcements. The exemption comes amid a continued Section 232 investigation into the national security implications of the US's copper supply chain, which could influence future trade policies.

Ongoing Section 232 Investigations and Implications for Copper

President Trump instituted a 10% baseline tariff on all foreign imports, with additional tariffs imposed on some countries, including a 54% tariff on China. However, copper and lumber were exempted from these additional duties as the Secretary of Commerce investigates the supply chain of these materials. The investigation, which began on February 25, could take up to nine months to complete. The Department of Commerce is expected to release recommendations for new policies, which could include tariffs depending on the findings.

Currently, copper derivatives such as cathodes and wire are taxed at rates between 1% and 3%. Despite the tariff relief, the investigation’s findings could lead to future changes in tariff rates for copper and other critical materials.

Domestic Copper Production Challenges and Policy Recommendations

The US imported a total of 1.7 million metric tonnes (t) of copper and its derivatives in 2024, with copper cathodes accounting for the majority of these imports at 905,300t. The majority of copper imports came from free trade partners like Chile, Canada, Peru, and Mexico.

The US Chamber of Commerce responded to the ongoing investigation by recommending several actions to boost domestic copper production. These include tax credit incentives for domestic copper production, enhanced collaboration with allies and free trade partners, and reforming the permitting process for mining. Despite having significant copper reserves, the US faces a major challenge with a lack of domestic smelting infrastructure, with only two active copper smelters currently operating in the country.

Copper Prices Plunge Amid Rising Inventories and Global Recession Fears

Copper prices have plummeted to a two-month low as rising global stockpiles and fears of an impending economic recession weigh heavily on the market. The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper prices dropped to $8,714 per metric tonne on August 5, a significant decline from the record high of $11,104.50 per metric tonne reached on May 20. Similarly, the most traded September contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 71,390 yuan per tonne ($9,934/t) on August 7, down from a historical high of 88,940 yuan per tonne on May 20.

The decline in copper prices has been driven by a surge in global exchange copper stocks, which soared to a three-year high of 556,033 metric tonnes on August 2, up from 215,269 metric tonnes in December 2023. This increase is largely attributed to rapid output growth and subdued demand from China, the world’s largest consumer of copper.

Global refined copper production saw a 6% year-on-year increase from January to May, fueled by capacity expansions in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Chinese smelters alone added approximately 800,000 tonnes per year of new capacity, primarily in the second half of 2023. CMOC, a diversified metals and minerals producer, reported a doubling of copper production from its DRC operations to 313,400 tonnes during the first half of 2024.

Further production increases are anticipated as new projects come online in the latter half of the year. US-based mining giant Freeport McMoran recently completed the construction of its Manyar smelter in Indonesia, with a production capacity of 300,000 tonnes per year, set to begin copper cathode manufacturing soon. Additionally, Indonesia’s Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara and China’s Jinchuan Group are expected to add significant capacity in the coming months.

Despite the surge in output, copper demand growth has lagged, particularly in China. Demand is projected to increase by only 2-3% this year, hindered by a 21.8% decline in the completion of new housing projects during the first half of the year. The power grid sector, China’s second-largest consumer of copper, has also seen moderate demand growth, with investments shifting toward aluminum-intensive ultra-high voltage grids.

Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and solar photovoltaics have seen steady copper demand growth, but not enough to offset the slowdown in the real estate and power grid sectors. Market participants remain cautious about the overall outlook.

Macroeconomic concerns have further exacerbated the situation. Weaker-than-expected US employment data for July, coupled with declining manufacturing indices in both the US and China, have fueled fears of a global recession. The US Federal Reserve’s emergency meeting on August 5, following a collapse in Japan’s stock market, has added to the uncertainty.

However, some positive factors may support copper prices in the near term. A continued shortage of copper concentrate feedstock and the suspension of several Chinese secondary copper processors due to a tax rebate cancellation may lead to production cuts. Additionally, a strike at BHP’s Escondida copper mine in Chile could further tighten supply.

The rapid development of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry in the US is expected to drive copper demand in the grid system, particularly in states like Virginia, where commercial electricity demand has surged due to the growth of AI databases.

China blocks stibnite ore shipment disrupts US Antimony supply

China Stibnite

Chinese customs action forced a 50t cargo back to Australia. The China blocks stibnite ore shipment after an 82-day hold in Ningbo-Zhoushan. As a result, US Antimony’s Mexico restart faces fresh feedstock risk. The China blocks stibnite ore shipment halted ore bound for Manzanillo and the Madero smelter.

Supply chain and pricing impact

US Antimony valued the two containers at $715,413, or $14,308/t. Therefore, the China blocks stibnite ore shipment directly removes high-value stibnite from near-term runs. Meanwhile, antimony is vital for flame retardants, defense uses, and lead-acid batteries. Tightness could widen if alternative concentrates lag.

The company operates North America’s only antimony smelters. However, longer hauls and re-booking raise logistics and financing costs. Downstream alloy and chemicals buyers should review safety stocks. Traders may prefer multi-origin tenders to limit single-port risk.

Regulatory and logistics factors

China suspended antimony exports to the US in December. Therefore, transshipment through Chinese ports adds regulatory exposure. Evergreen Shipping routed the cargo through China, triggering the hold. The carrier’s deviation underscores how routing choices shape compliance risk.

Refiners now reassess routing via neutral hubs. In the near term, Mexico feed could rely on direct sailings. Operators should hard-code “no PRC transshipment” clauses. They also should insure for customs detentions and export-control delays.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This episode shows midstream fragility when critical ores transit regulatory chokepoints. Expect tighter contract language, diversified routes, and premiums for assured delivery outside China’s logistics sphere. Buyers should secure multi-origin stibnite supply before peak seasonal demand.

Strong Fundamentals to Support Niobium Columbite Prices in 2025

Columbite

The niobium columbite market has witnessed steady price growth over the past two years, driven by rising demand from the aerospace and defense sectors and supply constraints in Brazil and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). While firm fundamentals are expected to support prices in 2025, further increases may face resistance from smelters shifting to ferro-niobium as a cost-effective alternative.

Aerospace and Defense Demand Driving Niobium Prices

Niobium plays a critical role in high-temperature alloys used in jet engines, hypersonic missiles, and satellite components, making it essential for the aerospace and defense industries.

• Global military spending surged to $2.4 trillion in 2023, a 6.8% increase from 2022, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

• Geopolitical tensions—including Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Red Sea, and China’s increased military drills around Taiwan—have fueled higher defense budgets worldwide, supporting demand for niobium-based alloys.

One of the key niobium alloys, C-103, is composed of 89% niobium, 10% hafnium, and 1% titanium and is crucial in hypersonic missile technology, jet engine afterburners, and space applications. The US Department of Defense recently awarded a $26.4 million grant to Global Advanced Metals under the Defense Production Act program to boost high-purity niobium oxide production at its Pennsylvania plant, further reinforcing long-term demand.

Supply Constraints in Brazil and the DRC Impacting Columbite Prices

While demand-side factors have bolstered niobium prices, supply disruptions have also played a crucial role in the market’s upward trajectory.

• Brazilian niobium columbite supply tightened following President Lula da Silva’s crackdown on illegal mining in the Amazon. Although the primary focus has been on gold and zinc mining, industry participants have reported higher niobium columbite prices and supply disruptions since Lula’s election in 2022.

• Conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has led to reduced tantalite supply, which is a valuable alternative source of niobium for Chinese smelters. With tantalite shortages driving up prices, niobium concentrates have become even more expensive, exacerbating supply concerns.

As a result of these factors, columbite prices averaged $18.20/lb CIF main ports in 2024, significantly higher than the five-year average of $14.50/lb.

Price Outlook and Smelter Substitution Risk

While market fundamentals remain bullish, further niobium columbite price increases may face resistance as smelters consider switching to ferro-niobium to reduce costs. Historically, when columbite prices exceed $18/lb, Chinese smelters have shifted to ferro-niobium, capping price gains beyond that level. This pattern suggests that while prices are likely to remain firm in 2025, further spikes may be short-lived if substitution pressures increase.

Conclusion

With rising global defense spending, growing aerospace applications, and constrained supply from key producers, the niobium columbite market is well-positioned for continued price support in 2025. However, potential price resistance from Chinese smelters switching to ferro-niobium could limit further upside movement. As geopolitical tensions persist and global demand for high-performance alloys rises, niobium remains a critical material to watch in the strategic metals market.

US Aluminum Supply Dips in August 2024 Amid Import and Primary Production Declines

US Aluminum

The US aluminum market experienced a slight contraction in total supply during August 2024, primarily driven by reduced imports of crude metals and alloys, coupled with lower primary production figures. Data released by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reveals a 1.9% year-on-year decrease, with total supply reaching 716,000 metric tonnes (t), down from 730,000t in August 2023.

A significant factor contributing to this decline was a 15,000t drop in imports of crude metals and alloys, landing at 268,000t. Primary production also saw a decrease of 6,000t, settling at 56,000t. Secondary recovery from old scrap also experienced a decrease of 6,000t to 132,000t. However, an increase in secondary recovery using new scrap, up 13,000t to 166,000t, partially offset these losses.

Year-to-date figures for August show a similar trend, with total new aluminum supply totaling 6.05 million t, compared to 6.11 million t during the same period in 2023. While primary production fell from 504,000t to 452,000t year-to-date, a 134,000t increase in imports of plates, sheets, bars, and other aluminum products to 838,000t mitigated a more substantial year-to-date decline.

Consumption and Scrap Trends

Despite the supply dip, total metal consumption and metal recovery in August 2024 saw year-on-year increases of 7,000t and 6,000t, respectively. Independent mill fabricators played a key role in this growth, boosting consumption by 11,000t to 148,000t and metal recovery by 12,000t to 136,000t. Conversely, secondary smelters reported decreased consumption and metal recovery.

Total scrap melted or consumed in August 2024 reached 315,000t, a 20,000t increase from August 2023. This growth was entirely attributed to new scrap, which saw a 22,000t increase to 186,000t. Year-to-date August 2024 figures show a 140,000t increase in total aluminum melted or consumed, driven by both new and old scrap.

Secondary Alloy Output

Aluminum alloy production at secondary smelters experienced a year-to-date August decline of 37,000t to 722,000t. Notably, production of 380 alloy and its variations saw a 15,000t decrease.

European Aluminium Industry Pushes for Scrap Export Restrictions

Al scrap

Rising Pressure for Scrap Export Controls

The European aluminium scrap market is facing mounting pressure as supply tightness collides with strong export demand. Industry groups such as European Aluminium and Aluminium Deutschland have intensified lobbying for export tariffs to secure domestic scrap supply. Their push comes as the US raises tariffs on primary aluminium imports, potentially boosting American demand for European scrap.

Exports of European aluminium scrap surged in recent years, particularly to Asia. The EU and UK together shipped 1.57mn tonnes in 2024, a 23pc increase compared with 2022. India and China accounted for the bulk of these flows, while exports to the US, though smaller, grew sharply. European Aluminium warned that rising US interest, combined with current supply shortages, risks creating a “full-blown scrap crisis.”

Industry Debate and Market Risks

However, not all stakeholders agree that restrictions are the solution. Scrap merchants argue that supply shortfalls are driven more by weak industrial activity than by exports. Low production in automotive, construction, and machinery has reduced available grades like aluminium turnings, which are essential for European secondary smelters. They caution that tariffs may not address these structural issues and could trigger reciprocal trade barriers, complicating Europe’s own scrap imports.

At the same time, many producers identify high energy costs as the bigger threat to smelter viability. Merchants note that no smelter closures have been directly tied to scrap shortages, while escalating electricity prices have forced cutbacks. Despite this, calls for restrictions continue to gain traction, reflecting a broader trend of resource nationalism as countries prioritize domestic recycling over exports.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The debate over aluminium scrap export restrictions underscores a critical tension between free trade and industrial security. While tariffs may stabilize domestic availability, they risk distorting markets and inviting retaliation. The EU must weigh these risks carefully, especially as global competition for low-carbon feedstock intensifies. Energy costs, more than scrap scarcity, remain the sector’s existential challenge.

Alcoa Shifts Focus to Aluminium Production with Alumina Cuts in 2025

Alcoa

US aluminium producer Alcoa has announced plans to cut alumina output and ramp up aluminium production in 2025. In its annual report, released on January 22, Alcoa revealed it had met its production targets for 2024, producing 10 million tons of alumina and 2.2 million tons of aluminium. While aluminium production grew by 4.8% from 2023, alumina output fell by 2.9%. This strategic move highlights Alcoa's ongoing adjustments in response to market conditions and operational challenges.

Alumina Production Cuts Continue into 2025

For 2025, Alcoa expects alumina production to range between 9.5 million and 9.7 million tons, marking the second consecutive year of output reductions. The company had previously halted operations at its Kwinana plant in Western Australia, which had a capacity of 2.2 million tons per year. This decision followed a combination of high operating costs, the plant's age, and soaring bauxite prices. As a result, Alcoa plans to continue sourcing alumina externally, a strategy it began in 2024 to fulfill customer orders and maintain supply chain efficiency.

Aluminium Production Growth Driven by Plant Resumptions

On the aluminium front, Alcoa saw significant growth, increasing its output by 4.8% in 2024. This increase was driven in part by the resumption of operations at its Warrick and Alumar joint venture smelters in the US and Brazil, which had been inactive for years. In 2025, Alcoa forecasts aluminium production to rise further to between 2.6 million and 2.8 million tons, as these plants continue to scale up operations. The company’s aluminium output is expected to remain steady through 2024, with quarterly production gradually increasing.

Alcoa Looks Ahead with Positive Aluminium Price Outlook

Alcoa's financial outlook for 2025 is further supported by the positive trend in aluminium prices. The London Metal Exchange's aluminium cash price rose from $2,110 per ton to $2,611 per ton over the past year, reflecting growing demand. Additionally, the removal of the tax rebate on commodities, including aluminium, by China in December 2024 is expected to further elevate prices, benefiting Alcoa's bottom line.

China Increases Antimony Imports Amid Domestic Supply Challenges

Faced with dwindling domestic resources and environmental restrictions, Chinese smelters have turned to international markets to secure a stable supply of antimony ores and metals. This trend has been evident since the beginning of the year as major domestic mines approach resource exhaustion after extensive mining activities. Smaller deposits in provinces such as Guizhou and Guangxi have struggled to obtain mining licenses due to strict environmental protection measures.

According to Chinese customs data, the country imported 6,174 tons of antimony concentrate in July, a notable increase from 4,581 tons in June and 2,557 tons in July of the previous year. From January to July, total imports reached 32,054 tons, marking a 35% increase from the same period last year and a staggering 97% increase from January to July 2022.

Thailand and Myanmar have emerged as the primary suppliers of antimony concentrate to China this year, filling the gap left by Russia following the imposition of U.S. sanctions on the latter, which was previously a key source of supply.

In addition to concentrate, China also ramped up its imports of antimony metal in July due to limited domestic availability. Private smelters in Hunan province, which is the heart of China’s antimony production, have been operating at just 20-30% of their capacity in recent years. This is partly due to imported feedstock being prioritized for leading producers such as Hsiwangshan Twinkling Star, Chenzhou Mining, and Guangxi Youngsun. China imported 227 tons of antimony metal in July, up from 221 tons in June and significantly higher than the 49 tons imported in July 2022.

Trialco emissions case: $1mn settlement triggers compliance overhaul

Trialco

Trialco emissions case leads to a $1mn settlement and compliance overhaul. The secondary aluminum smelter agreed to changes at its Chicago Heights facility. The consent decree follows federal claims of hazardous air pollutant emissions. Trialco will implement an OM&M plan and pursue a new FESOP permit.

Consent decree terms and timeline

The consent decree mandates new monitoring and operating standards at Trialco. The company must assess its capture and collection system for improvements. A 30-day public comment period runs through 8 August before final filing. Trialco has already upgraded equipment to meet federal compliance requirements.

Industry impact and competitive dynamics

The Trialco emissions case signals stricter oversight for secondary aluminum smelters. EPA violations in 2021 and 2023 preceded this enforcement action. The company did not admit liability under the proposed decree. Operational changes may raise costs, but they reduce regulatory risk.

Market effects should remain limited unless further closures occur. However, buyers may see tighter specs and documentation on emissions controls. As a result, contracts could include monitoring clauses and audit rights. The Trialco emissions case underscores ESG due diligence across scrap supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This settlement pushes U.S. recyclers toward uniform OM&M and transparent reporting. Competitive advantage will favor plants with efficient capture systems and low-carbon power. Watch final decree language and any precedent for sector-wide FESOP conditions.

Rio Tinto Secures Solar Power Deals to Cut Emissions at Gladstone Aluminium Smelter

Rio Tinto Aluminium

New 20-year agreements with Edify Energy to supply 600MW solar and battery power to Boyne smelter.

Rio Tinto has signed two long-term renewable power agreements to supply electricity to its Gladstone aluminium operations in Queensland, Australia, the company announced. The miner will source 90% of output from Edify Energy’s Smoky Creek and Guthrie’s Gap solar and battery projects over 20 years.

Together, the projects will generate 600MW of solar power and provide 600MW / 2,400MWh of battery storage. Construction begins in late 2025, with completion set for 2028.

Clean Energy to Power Majority of Boyne Smelter

The agreements will meet 80% of electricity demand at Rio Tinto’s Boyne aluminium smelter, which produces 500,000 tonnes/year of primary aluminium. According to Rio Tinto, the renewable transition will cut 5.6 million tonnes of CO₂e annually, reducing scope 1 and 2 emissions by 70%.

“These are the first company-backed deals with integrated battery storage,” said Kellie Parker, CEO of Rio Tinto Australia.

The move builds on Rio Tinto’s 2.2GW of renewable PPAs signed in 2024, supporting broader decarbonization across its Queensland alumina and aluminium assets, including Queensland Alumina and Yarwun, two of Australia’s highest industrial CO₂e emitters.

State and Federal Policy Boosts, but Global Tensions Loom

The deals follow Queensland’s commitment to support the Boyne plant’s shift from coal-powered energy, which still dominates the state grid. However, new conservative state leadership plans to tighten wind regulations, potentially delaying other renewable initiatives.

Meanwhile, Australia’s federal government has pledged production credits to aluminium smelters as part of its low-carbon manufacturing strategy. Yet this policy has triggered criticism from the U.S. government, which imposed a 25% tariff on Australian aluminium, citing dumping practices.

UAE’s Emirates Global Aluminium Maintains Stable Production in First Half of 2024

Emirates Global Aluminium Maintains Stability While Expanding in 2024

Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), the UAE-based aluminum giant, reported stable production and earnings for the first half of 2024. Despite the challenging market environment, the company demonstrated steady performance, with slight growth in hot metal output and a focus on value-added products.

Steady Growth and Focus on Sustainability

In the first half of 2024, EGA produced 1.34 million tons of hot metal, a modest increase from 1.32 million tons in the same period of 2023. Sales of cast metal slightly decreased to 1.30 million tons from 1.32 million tons last year, but the company increased its share of value-added products, reaching 82% of total sales compared to 77% last year. EGA’s adjusted EBITDA remained stable at 4.2 billion dirhams ($533 million), aligning closely with the 4.15 billion dirhams from 2023.

EGA's alumina refinery in Al Taweelah saw a rise in output, supplying 1.22 million tons to its smelters, up from 1.15 million tons last year. In Guinea, bauxite exports increased by 5% to 7.19 million tons, highlighting the company’s strong supply chain and continued growth in raw material supplies.

Looking ahead, EGA is making strides in its sustainability efforts by advancing the construction of a new aluminum recycling plant in Al Taweelah. This facility is projected to begin production in 2026 with a capacity of 170,000 tons of secondary aluminum billets per year.

In May 2024, EGA took significant steps toward global expansion with the acquisition of German specialty foundry Leichtmetall and a majority stake in U.S.-based secondary smelter Spectro Alloys. These acquisitions are part of EGA's long-term strategy to broaden its international footprint, with more expansion plans expected by the year’s end.

Zinc Demand and Supply Expected to Rebalance in 2025

Zinc

Recovery in Automotive, Infrastructure, and Green Energy to Boost Zinc Market

Global zinc demand is projected to rise marginally in 2025, driven by steady growth from automotive, infrastructure, and green energy sectors. According to the International Zinc Association (IZA), refined zinc demand is forecast to increase by 1%, with notable growth in India and the United States, while China and Europe show moderate gains.

Meanwhile, the zinc supply landscape is recovering after a contraction in 2024. ILZSG projects global mine supply will increase by 4.3% this year, supported by new output from the Kipushi, Tara, and Buenavista mines. However, some production sites, including Russia’s Ozernoye and the Red Dog mine in the U.S., may fall short of expectations, highlighting persistent uncertainty in the zinc supply chain.

Smelter expansions are also contributing to a long-term supply rebound. Boliden’s Odda 4.0 project in Norway is on track to reach 350,000 t/yr capacity in the second half of 2025. Additional capacity from the Nordenham smelter in Germany and new Chinese smelters will be partially offset by weaker output from facilities in Canada, Italy, Australia, Japan, and South Korea. As a result, the ILZSG forecasts a global surplus of 93,000 tonnes in 2025, reversing last year’s deficit of 62,000 tonnes.

Automotive and Green Tech to Sustain Long-Term Zinc Growth

The automotive industry remains a key driver of zinc consumption, particularly in galvanised steel for vehicle bodies. Western markets already have high galvanisation rates, while China and India are rapidly catching up. The IZA forecasts a 22% increase in auto-sector zinc use by 2030, translating to an additional 140,000 tonnes of demand.

India’s rapid urban development and China’s robust manufacturing output are also boosting zinc demand across infrastructure and consumer goods. In Europe, public investment in infrastructure and defence, especially in Germany, is expected to support a moderate recovery in zinc usage from late 2025 onward.

Green energy technologies — including wind, solar, and battery systems — are also emerging as major zinc consumers. The IZA projects demand from green tech will exceed 652,000 tonnes by 2030, with more than $1 billion already invested in zinc-based energy storage systems.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zinc's supply-demand fundamentals are gradually stabilizing, with rising industrial and green-tech consumption offsetting geopolitical and logistical risks. The rebound in mine and smelter capacity suggests a structurally balanced market may return by 2025. However, long-term resilience will depend on investment in both primary production and recycling infrastructure.

Refined Zinc Market Surplus Forecast for 2025 Amid Rising Supply

ILZSG

The global refined zinc market surplus is projected to reach 93,000 tonnes in 2025, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). This forecast comes as supply growth outpaces a modest recovery in global demand, particularly in China, the world's largest zinc consumer.

Refined Zinc Demand Rebounds Slightly

Global demand for refined zinc is expected to rise by 1% to 13.64 million tonnes in 2025. China is projected to see a 0.9% increase, following a 1.9% decline in 2024. Other key markets such as Brazil, India, and Turkey are also forecast to grow, while South Korea will likely see a decline. However, ongoing global economic uncertainty, especially surrounding U.S. trade policy, could weigh on zinc consumption.

Zinc Supply Rises on Mine and Smelter Recovery

Meanwhile, global mine production is forecast to increase by 4.3% to 12.43 million tonnes in 2025. Output will rise in Australia, China, Mexico, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Peru. Europe is also expected to rebound, with an 18.3% production increase led by Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia’s Ozernoye mine, and Ireland’s Tara mine. On the refined metal side, global output is projected to climb 1.8% to 13.73 million tonnes. This growth is supported by China and Norway, where Boliden expanded capacity at its Odda smelter by 150,000 tonnes annually.

However, recent closures at Glencore’s Portovesme smelter in Italy and Toho Zinc’s Anakka operation in Japan will partly offset these gains.

Refined Lead Market Also Shifts into Surplus

In addition to zinc, the ILZSG forecasts a surplus in the global lead market. Refined lead supply is expected to exceed demand by 82,000 tonnes in 2025. Demand is projected to rise by 1.5% to 13.19 million tonnes, while output will grow by 1.9% to 13.27 million tonnes, mainly from China, India, Mexico, and the United States.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The anticipated refined zinc market surplus reflects an ongoing shift in global base metal dynamics. Despite moderate demand recovery, rising output from mines and smelters—particularly in Asia and Europe—could place downward pressure on prices unless macroeconomic conditions improve significantly.