Zinc Demand and Supply Expected to Rebalance in 2025

Zinc

Recovery in Automotive, Infrastructure, and Green Energy to Boost Zinc Market

Global zinc demand is projected to rise marginally in 2025, driven by steady growth from automotive, infrastructure, and green energy sectors. According to the International Zinc Association (IZA), refined zinc demand is forecast to increase by 1%, with notable growth in India and the United States, while China and Europe show moderate gains.

Meanwhile, the zinc supply landscape is recovering after a contraction in 2024. ILZSG projects global mine supply will increase by 4.3% this year, supported by new output from the Kipushi, Tara, and Buenavista mines. However, some production sites, including Russia’s Ozernoye and the Red Dog mine in the U.S., may fall short of expectations, highlighting persistent uncertainty in the zinc supply chain.

Smelter expansions are also contributing to a long-term supply rebound. Boliden’s Odda 4.0 project in Norway is on track to reach 350,000 t/yr capacity in the second half of 2025. Additional capacity from the Nordenham smelter in Germany and new Chinese smelters will be partially offset by weaker output from facilities in Canada, Italy, Australia, Japan, and South Korea. As a result, the ILZSG forecasts a global surplus of 93,000 tonnes in 2025, reversing last year’s deficit of 62,000 tonnes.

Automotive and Green Tech to Sustain Long-Term Zinc Growth

The automotive industry remains a key driver of zinc consumption, particularly in galvanised steel for vehicle bodies. Western markets already have high galvanisation rates, while China and India are rapidly catching up. The IZA forecasts a 22% increase in auto-sector zinc use by 2030, translating to an additional 140,000 tonnes of demand.

India’s rapid urban development and China’s robust manufacturing output are also boosting zinc demand across infrastructure and consumer goods. In Europe, public investment in infrastructure and defence, especially in Germany, is expected to support a moderate recovery in zinc usage from late 2025 onward.

Green energy technologies — including wind, solar, and battery systems — are also emerging as major zinc consumers. The IZA projects demand from green tech will exceed 652,000 tonnes by 2030, with more than $1 billion already invested in zinc-based energy storage systems.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Zinc's supply-demand fundamentals are gradually stabilizing, with rising industrial and green-tech consumption offsetting geopolitical and logistical risks. The rebound in mine and smelter capacity suggests a structurally balanced market may return by 2025. However, long-term resilience will depend on investment in both primary production and recycling infrastructure.