Refined Zinc Market Surplus Forecast for 2025 Amid Rising Supply

ILZSG

The global refined zinc market surplus is projected to reach 93,000 tonnes in 2025, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). This forecast comes as supply growth outpaces a modest recovery in global demand, particularly in China, the world's largest zinc consumer.

Refined Zinc Demand Rebounds Slightly

Global demand for refined zinc is expected to rise by 1% to 13.64 million tonnes in 2025. China is projected to see a 0.9% increase, following a 1.9% decline in 2024. Other key markets such as Brazil, India, and Turkey are also forecast to grow, while South Korea will likely see a decline. However, ongoing global economic uncertainty, especially surrounding U.S. trade policy, could weigh on zinc consumption.

Zinc Supply Rises on Mine and Smelter Recovery

Meanwhile, global mine production is forecast to increase by 4.3% to 12.43 million tonnes in 2025. Output will rise in Australia, China, Mexico, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Peru. Europe is also expected to rebound, with an 18.3% production increase led by Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia’s Ozernoye mine, and Ireland’s Tara mine. On the refined metal side, global output is projected to climb 1.8% to 13.73 million tonnes. This growth is supported by China and Norway, where Boliden expanded capacity at its Odda smelter by 150,000 tonnes annually.

However, recent closures at Glencore’s Portovesme smelter in Italy and Toho Zinc’s Anakka operation in Japan will partly offset these gains.

Refined Lead Market Also Shifts into Surplus

In addition to zinc, the ILZSG forecasts a surplus in the global lead market. Refined lead supply is expected to exceed demand by 82,000 tonnes in 2025. Demand is projected to rise by 1.5% to 13.19 million tonnes, while output will grow by 1.9% to 13.27 million tonnes, mainly from China, India, Mexico, and the United States.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The anticipated refined zinc market surplus reflects an ongoing shift in global base metal dynamics. Despite moderate demand recovery, rising output from mines and smelters—particularly in Asia and Europe—could place downward pressure on prices unless macroeconomic conditions improve significantly.