China Plans to Boost Domestic Copper Resources and Scrap Usage by 2027

China Copper Resources

The country's strategy focuses on expanding copper production and enhancing secondary material utilization.

China has announced plans to increase its domestic copper resources by 5-10% by 2027, along with a significant push to boost the use of secondary materials such as copper scrap. According to a February 11th statement from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the country will focus on expanding copper exploration and production in several key regions. These efforts align with China’s broader strategy to enhance its copper supply chain and reduce dependency on external sources.

Increased Domestic Copper Exploration and Smelting Projects

As part of its initiative, China will promote exploration in regions such as Tibet, Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Heilongjiang provinces. The country has already made substantial progress in discovering new copper resources, with over 20 million tonnes of new copper found in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since 2021. This is double the quantity discovered during the 2016-2020 period. To further boost copper production, China plans to develop new copper mines in these regions and integrate new smelting projects with concentrate production facilities. These projects are expected to play a key role in meeting the country’s growing demand for refined copper.

Boosting Copper Scrap Utilization

Another significant aspect of China’s strategy is increasing the use of copper scrap. Copper smelters will be encouraged to use more secondary copper, which has already become a major feedstock in the production of refined copper. In 2023, more than 31% of China's refined copper came from scrap, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA). To support this, the government plans to back the construction of new copper scrap recycling facilities and increase imports of copper scrap. In 2024, China’s copper scrap imports rose by 13%, reaching over 2.25 million tonnes, as smelters shifted to more cost-effective scrap rather than concentrates due to higher concentrate prices.

Global Copper Supply and Smelting Capacity

China’s increased demand for copper concentrate, along with the country’s focus on smelting capacity expansions, is expected to tighten global copper concentrate supply. This supply crunch has already led to a decline in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) since 2024. Market participants suggest that smelting capacity expansions may outpace new copper mine projects, contributing to continued global supply tightness in 2025.

Conclusion

China’s push to increase domestic copper resources and enhance the use of secondary materials, such as copper scrap, reflects a strategic move to secure its position in the global copper market. With growing demand for refined copper and a constrained global supply of copper concentrates, the country’s efforts to expand production capacity and increase recycling will be essential to meeting future copper needs.

US Tariffs Pressure Copper Prices and Curb China’s Scrap Imports

China Copper

US tariffs, introduced by President Donald Trump on April 2, have significantly impacted global copper prices. The tariffs, set at a minimum 10% tax on all foreign imports, have caused concerns about weakened copper demand, particularly from key industries that rely on copper, such as automobiles and home appliances. China’s copper scrap imports are also under pressure due to retaliatory tariffs, which will be implemented by China on April 10.

Impact of Tariffs on Copper Prices

Following the announcement of tariffs, copper prices saw a dramatic decline. As of April 7, London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper prices fell to a one-year low of $8,105 per ton, a significant drop from $9,721 per ton on April 2. Similarly, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) prices also plummeted to a three-month low of 73,640 yuan per ton from 79,890 yuan per ton during the same period.

Although copper itself is not directly affected by the new tariffs, the downstream sectors, such as automotive manufacturing and home appliances, face substantial tariffs. This will likely depress demand for copper, as these industries represent significant end-users of copper products.

US Tariffs on Cars and Appliances Affect Copper Demand

A 25% tariff on imported cars and trucks came into effect on April 3, with a further 25% tax on auto parts set to follow in May. The US light vehicle market saw significant growth in 2024, with sales climbing to 16.8 million units. Similarly, the US imported $23.5 billion worth of home appliances from China in 2024. These appliances, including cooling devices and electronics, represented 23% of global copper demand in 2023. The imposition of tariffs on these goods will likely lead to a reduction in copper demand from the US.

On a positive note, lower copper prices may drive copper fabricators to restock in the short term, especially after a significant price drop in late March. Data from the SHFE shows that copper stocks fell from 256,328 tons on March 21 to 225,736 tons by April 3, as downstream buyers rushed to purchase copper cathode in response to falling prices.

China’s Retaliatory Tariffs and Copper Scrap Imports

China’s planned tariffs on US copper scrap, set to take effect on April 10, will impact copper supply in the country. In 2024, China imported over 440,000 tons of copper scrap from the US, accounting for nearly 20% of its total copper scrap imports. However, market participants predict that some traders will attempt to bypass the tariffs by sourcing US-origin copper scrap from other countries.

In February, US copper scrap exports fell by 10% compared to the previous year, with China seeing the largest drop in imports. This decrease in exports can be attributed to tariff expectations, which have made it difficult for US exporters to remain competitive. The large spread between CME and LME prices has further strained export options, leaving US dealers with excess scrap volumes.

Limited Impact on Copper Concentrate and Cathode Supplies

China’s retaliatory tariffs are expected to have a minimal impact on its domestic copper concentrate and cathode supply. In 2024, China imported just 460,000 tons of copper concentrate and 1,575 tons of copper cathode from the US, representing only a small fraction of its total imports. Therefore, the retaliatory tariffs are unlikely to cause significant disruptions to these supply chains.

China's Jiayuan to Secure Copper Cathode Supply from Swiss Firm IXM for Lithium-Ion Foil Production

Guangdong Jiayuan

Guangdong Jiayuan, a leading Chinese copper foil producer, has reached an agreement with Switzerland-based trading firm IXM to purchase a significant quantity of copper cathode feedstock. The deal, valued at approximately 5.066 billion yuan ($694 million), is set to support Jiayuan’s expansion of refined copper foil production, which is critical for lithium-ion batteries, copper-clad laminates, and printed circuit boards.

Details of the Copper Cathode Purchase Agreement

The agreement between Jiayuan and IXM will see the Chinese company secure 60,000 tons of copper cathode from IXM’s Geneva operations between December 2024 and November 2025. Additionally, Jiayuan will purchase 10,000 tons of cathode from IXM’s Shanghai branch during 2025. The price of the copper cathode will be determined through a negotiated pricing methodology, which will be finalized when both parties sign the contract.

Jiayuan, with a production capacity of 100,000 tons per year of refined copper foil, has seen steady growth in its production. In the first half of 2024, the company produced 24,000 tons of copper foil, marking a slight increase of 0.1% year-over-year. This agreement will ensure a steady supply of high-quality copper cathode to meet the growing demand for copper foil in key sectors such as electric vehicle (EV) batteries and electronic components.

China's Booming Copper Foil and NEV Industries

China’s refined copper foil production capacity reached 1.6 million tons per year in 2023, a 51% increase from the previous year. Notably, the production capacity for lithium-ion copper foil—used in batteries for electric vehicles—rose sharply by 68%, reaching 950,000 tons per year in 2023. With China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) market expanding rapidly, the demand for lithium-ion copper foil is expected to grow significantly. Industry experts predict that deliveries of lithium-ion copper foil in China will reach 1.1 million tons per year by 2025.

The Chinese NEV industry is experiencing robust growth, with production rising by 35% to 11.345 million units in the first 11 months of 2024. Sales of NEVs have also surged, increasing by 36% over the same period. As the NEV market continues to expand, the demand for copper, particularly copper foil for lithium-ion batteries, is expected to increase, further driving the need for stable copper supply agreements like the one between Jiayuan and IXM.

Copper Market Trends and Prices

On December 12, 2024, Metalnomist-assessed grade-A copper cathode prices, based on the London Metal Exchange (LME) official cash prices, were in the range of $40-60 per ton cif Shanghai. These prices remained flat compared to December 10, but they had dropped from the previous range of $45-60 per ton observed on December 5 due to a rebound in copper prices during the week. The fluctuating prices highlight the importance of securing stable supply contracts for manufacturers like Jiayuan as copper remains a critical commodity in the transition to a low-carbon economy.

Royal Gold Ecuador Copper Investment of $200 Million Targets Warintza Project

Royal Gold Ecuador copper

Royal Gold Ecuador copper investment reached $200 million as the US metals investment firm's subsidiary RGLD Gold partnered with Canadian miner Solaris Resources for the Warintza copper-gold-molybdenum project. The substantial Royal Gold Ecuador copper investment secures net smelter royalty agreements and gold purchase arrangements for a project containing 1.1 billion tonnes of measured and indicated resources at 0.48% copper equivalent grade, positioning Royal Gold strategically within Ecuador's emerging copper mining sector.

Structured Payment Schedule Aligns with Project Milestones

Royal Gold Ecuador copper investment follows a phased approach with $200 million distributed across three installments tied to development milestones. RGLD Gold will pay $100 million upon closing, $50 million after environmental impact assessment approval and pre-feasibility study publication, and the final $50 million one year after initial closing. This milestone-based structure reduces investment risk while ensuring adequate project funding for critical development phases.

Meanwhile, the investment secures comprehensive royalty agreements covering all metals produced from the Warintza project including copper, gold, and molybdenum. The gold purchase agreement provides Royal Gold additional revenue streams beyond traditional royalty structures. These arrangements create diversified income sources while maintaining exposure to multiple commodity price cycles across the project's operational lifespan.

Royal Gold Ecuador Copper Project

Warintza Project Resources Support Long-Term Production Potential

However, the Warintza project's substantial resource base of 1.1 billion tonnes at 0.48% copper equivalent grade demonstrates significant scale for potential mining operations. The multi-metal deposit includes copper, gold, and molybdenum mineralization that enhances project economics through commodity diversification. Ecuador's copper mining sector attracts increasing international investment as global copper demand accelerates through energy transition requirements.

Therefore, Royal Gold's investment follows China's Zijin Mining $130 million investment for a 15% stake in Solaris completed in January 2024. The sequential major investments validate Warintza's commercial potential while providing Solaris adequate funding for project advancement. International investor interest demonstrates confidence in Ecuador's mining jurisdiction and the project's technical merits.

Strategic Positioning in Growing South American Copper Market

Furthermore, the Warintza investment positions Royal Gold advantageously within South America's expanding copper production base as global demand accelerates. Ecuador represents an emerging copper jurisdiction with substantial unexplored potential and improving regulatory frameworks for mining development. The country's strategic location provides efficient access to Asian and North American copper markets.

As a result, Royal Gold's streaming and royalty model creates exposure to Warintza's production potential without direct operational responsibilities or capital expenditure requirements beyond the initial investment. This approach enables participation in copper market growth while maintaining diversified portfolio exposure across multiple projects and jurisdictions. The investment strategy aligns with Royal Gold's established business model of financing mining development through royalty arrangements.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Royal Gold's $200 million Warintza investment exemplifies how precious metals streaming companies expand into base metals opportunities, leveraging their financing capabilities to secure royalty positions in high-quality copper projects amid accelerating global demand. The milestone-based payment structure demonstrates sophisticated risk management while Ecuador's emergence as a copper jurisdiction attracts major international investors seeking exposure to South American copper resources essential for global energy transition requirements.

US Copper Scrap Exports Reach Six-Year High in 2024

Copper Scrap

Total Copper Scrap Shipments Surge by 15%, Led by Strong Demand from China and Asia

In 2024, US copper scrap exports hit their highest levels in six years, marking a 15% increase from the previous year. Total copper scrap exports rose to 310,200 metric tonnes (mt), up from 270,100 mt in 2023. According to data compiled by Global Trade Tracker, this surge reflects rising demand across all forms of copper scrap.

Strong Growth in Copper Scrap Exports to China and Asia

Among the different categories of copper scrap, exports of bare bright scrap increased by 1.7%, reaching 81,400 tonnes in 2024. A significant portion of this growth was driven by a 3,200-tonne increase in exports to China. Exports of #1 copper scrap, which rose by 20% to approximately 112,400 tonnes, were also dominated by demand from China, which received 19,700 tonnes more than the previous year. Similarly, exports of #2 copper scrap saw a 21% increase, totaling over 116,500 tonnes, with higher deliveries to China, Malaysia, and Thailand.

This growing demand from Asian markets, particularly China, has contributed to the rise in US copper scrap exports. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) copper price for 2024 averaged $4.23 per pound, a 37¢ increase compared to 2023. Asian #1 copper scrap discounts averaged 19¢ per pound under the CME price, widening from the previous year’s 13¢ per pound. As a result, consumers faced a 31¢ per pound increase compared to the previous year due to the elevated exchange price.

Copper Scrap Exports: A Key Indicator of Global Demand

The rise in US copper scrap exports is a clear indicator of the strong global demand for copper, particularly in Asia. With China and other countries ramping up their copper production and consumption, the US remains a critical player in the copper supply chain. As demand for copper continues to grow, especially for use in green technologies and infrastructure, copper scrap exports will likely remain a vital component of the global market.

54% of the World's Copper Mines Face 'Drought Shock'

Anglo American Copper Mining

More than half of the world’s copper mines are exposed to 'drought risk'. Other major metal raw materials such as iron ore, lithium, and cobalt are also facing potential supply disruptions due to abnormal weather conditions.

Metalnomist stated in a report published on the 24th, “Climate anomalies caused by global warming will adversely affect the supply and demand of international raw materials.” The center cited data from the global consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), predicting that by 2050, 54% of the world's copper mines and 74% of lithium and cobalt mines will experience reduced production due to drought. Water is essential for crushing mineral ores, separating impurities, and cleaning equipment. McKinsey highlighted that “copper, gold, iron ore, and zinc are particularly vulnerable to drought, as 30-50% of these mines are located in areas with insufficient water resources.”

Chile, which produced over 30% of the world's copper in 2020, is already suffering from severe drought. Chilean state-owned mining company Codelco produced only 1,325,000 tons of copper last year, the lowest in 25 years, due to water shortages and other impacts.

15 Years of Water Shortage in the World’s Largest Copper Reserve: "If Mining Halts, Prices Could Quadruple"

Metalnomist warned on the 24th, “Mining items heavily dependent on production from specific countries are at risk of global supply disruptions due to abnormal weather conditions.”

According to Metalnomist, 47% of the world's copper reserves are concentrated in three countries : Chile, Peru, and the Congo. 74% of iron ore is concentrated in China, Australia, and Brazil, while 80.8% of bauxite is concentrated in Guinea, China, and Brazil. Copper demand has recently surged due to the AI boom, raising concerns that any supply disruption could significantly impact the industry. Global infrastructure asset manager Macquarie Group predicts that the annual copper demand could increase by 2 million tons by 2030 due to the surge in AI data centers. Copper is crucial for the construction of both data centers and power grids.

Northern Antofagasta, Chile's largest copper and lithium deposit, is a prime example of a region unable to increase production due to water shortages. Reuters recently reported that local mining company Antofagasta PLC has been struggling to secure water supply as reservoirs have dried up due to a 15-year-long drought. In the first quarter of this year, Antofagasta PLC’s copper production decreased by 11% compared to the same period last year.

Limited water resources are also causing conflicts with local communities. Antofagasta PLC and Australian mining company BHP were sued by Chile’s National Defense Commission (CDE) in 2022 for environmental pollution. The CDE claimed that mining companies extracted water volumes exceeding regulations, causing severe damage to the local ecosystem and indigenous communities.

Seawater desalination plants are being considered as a solution to these issues. However, the high investment costs and long construction periods limit their ability to solve water problems immediately.

Due to structural constraints on copper supply, it is predicted that copper prices could skyrocket in the coming years. Goldman Sachs projected that the average copper price next year would be $15,000 per ton. Pierre Andurand, founder of hedge fund Andurand Capital, analyzed that the global copper supply shortage could drive prices up to $40,000 per ton by 2028. Copper traded at a record high of $10,857 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on the 21st of last month, before falling to $9,563 on the 21st of this month.

The increasing demand for electricity for cooling due to heatwaves is also expected to raise the demand for fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas. Metalnomist noted, “Europe is in a situation where it is inevitable to expand thermal power generation to meet the increasing electricity demand in summer,” and added, “In Asian countries such as Thailand, India, and Bangladesh, the demand for natural gas for power generation has increased.”

China’s JCHX Expands Lonshi Copper Mine in DRC with $751.3M Investment

JCHX Mining

Strategic Expansion Aims to Boost Copper Concentrate Output

Chinese mining company JCHX Mining Management plans to expand copper concentrate production at its Lonshi Copper Mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This development includes the exploration of the east mining area, with a new copper ore processing capacity of 3.5 million tonnes per year (t/yr) and an estimated $751.3 million investment. The construction timeline spans 4.5 years, though the official start date remains undisclosed. Once fully operational, the east mining area is expected to reach full capacity within four years of commissioning.

Increasing Copper Production Capacity

JCHX launched the west mining area of the Lonshi mine in Q4 2023, achieving an annual copper concentrate production capacity of 40,000 t/yr. With the east mining expansion, the entire Lonshi mine is projected to produce 100,000 t/yr of copper concentrate. In the first half of 2024, JCHX reported a fourfold increase in copper concentrate production compared to the same period in 2023, reaching 13,213 tonnes.

JCHX’s Growing Presence in Africa and Beyond

In addition to Lonshi, JCHX operates the Dikulushi copper mine in the DRC and the Lubambe copper mine in Zambia. The company is also awaiting mining approval for its San Matias mine in Colombia. This expansion aligns with China’s broader strategy of securing copper supply for its growing smelting capacities.

China’s Expanding Global Copper Footprint

China produced 12.451 million tonnes of refined copper between January and November 2024, marking a 4.6% year-over-year increase, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Chinese mining firms, including Zijin Mining, have accelerated overseas copper acquisitions, with Zijin currently pursuing the La Arena copper-gold mine in Peru to bolster its global copper and gold output.

Market analysts anticipate a tight copper concentrate supply in 2025, as smelting capacity expansion is projected to outpace new mining projects. This dynamic reinforces China’s aggressive push into international copper mining investments.

Hudbay Maintains 2025 Copper Production Targets Despite Q1 Output Decline

Hudbay Minerals

Copper Mountain and Permitting Milestones Support Full-Year Outlook

Hudbay Minerals remains on track to meet its 2025 copper production targets despite reporting an 11% decline in first-quarter output. The Focus Keyphrase "Hudbay copper production targets" has become a focal point for analysts tracking North American copper supply trends amid rising global demand.

The company produced 30,958 tonnes of copper in Q1, down from the same period last year, while copper sales fell 5% to 31,768 tonnes. However, steady mill throughput at its Peru and Manitoba operations and anticipated gains at the Copper Mountain mine in British Columbia are expected to offset the shortfall. Hudbay recently acquired Mitsubishi Materials’ 25% stake in the mine, assuming full ownership and enhancing operational control.

Copper Mountain Upgrades and Copper World Permits Boost Long-Term Growth

Hudbay anticipates higher output in the second half of 2025, driven by mill improvements at Copper Mountain. This project is critical to stabilizing overall copper output amid global supply tightening.

Meanwhile, in Arizona, Hudbay’s Copper World project received final permitting approval during Q1. The company stated that a development decision is expected no earlier than 2026, positioning it as a medium-term growth asset in the U.S. copper pipeline.

Revenue Surges Despite Zinc Drop and Lower Copper Output

Although copper and zinc production fell, Hudbay's Q1 net income surged fourfold to $99.2 million, supported by 13% higher revenue at $594.9 million. Zinc production dropped 29% year-on-year to 6,265 tonnes, with sales falling 21%. However, molybdenum performance remained steady, with sales increasing by 8% to 448 tonnes.

Despite mixed output results, Hudbay has reaffirmed its full-year production guidance across all metals, signaling resilience in its diversified base metals strategy.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hudbay’s ability to maintain its 2025 copper production targets amid a Q1 dip highlights the strategic value of asset optimization and ownership consolidation. With mill upgrades and permit wins in place, the company is poised to reinforce its role in the North American copper supply chain during a period of growing geopolitical and energy transition pressures.

Arizona Copper Project Faces Federal Court Injunction on Sacred Land Transfer

Arizona Copper Project

A federal judge temporarily blocked the Arizona copper project land swap between the US government and Resolution Copper, a Rio Tinto/BHP mining venture. The court injunction halts the transfer of 2,422 acres in Arizona's Tonto National Forest, known as Oak Flat, which contains an estimated 1.787 billion metric tonnes of copper resources. This Arizona copper project represents one of the largest undeveloped copper deposits in North America, making the legal challenge significant for US mineral security.

Apache Stronghold Lawsuit Challenges Sacred Land Development

Apache Stronghold, representing Native American tribal interests, filed a lawsuit claiming the land transfer would violate religious freedom and due process rights. The tribal group argues that Oak Flat serves as sacred ceremonial grounds that would be "completely destroyed" under the proposed Arizona copper project development. Meanwhile, the federal judge ruled that the case presents "serious questions" warranting potential Supreme Court review.

The Supreme Court has declined to review the case on 13 previous occasions, creating ongoing uncertainty for the project timeline. However, the current injunction remains effective until the day after the Supreme Court decides whether to hear the case. Therefore, the Arizona copper project faces indefinite delays despite congressional approval granted in 2014.

Mining Companies Face Mounting Financial Pressure from Project Delays

Rio Tinto and BHP have invested $2.7 billion in the Arizona copper project and currently spend nearly $11 million monthly on site maintenance fees. These substantial ongoing costs create significant financial pressure while the project remains in legal limbo. As a result, the companies must continue substantial expenditures without generating revenue or advancing construction activities.

Despite these challenges, federal officials recently selected the Resolution Copper project for expedited permitting under a new process designed to accelerate US mineral production. This designation highlights the project's strategic importance for domestic copper supply chains and critical mineral security. However, the land transfer injunction effectively supersedes any permitting acceleration until legal issues are resolved.

The proposed land swap would exchange the 2,422-acre Oak Flat parcel for 5,344 acres of Resolution Copper land elsewhere. This exchange ratio demonstrates the high value placed on the copper-rich Oak Flat site for the Arizona copper project development.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This legal setback underscores the complex intersection of indigenous rights, environmental protection, and critical mineral development in US mining policy. The Arizona copper project's massive resource base makes it strategically important for domestic copper security, but resolution requires balancing legitimate tribal concerns with national mineral security objectives.

Copper Prices Set to Rise Amid US Federal Reserve Rate Cut, but Short-Term Volatility Expected

The recent decision by the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is sparking predictions of higher copper prices, particularly from Chinese market participants. This optimism stems from expectations that a weaker US dollar will increase demand for copper, especially in the property sector. Historically, copper and the US dollar have an inverse relationship, as copper is priced in dollars, making it cheaper for buyers using other currencies.

On September 18th, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, bringing it down to a range of 4.75-5%. This move marks the first interest rate cut since 2020, and policymakers have signaled that further reductions are likely before the end of 2024. Another 100 basis points of cuts are anticipated in 2025.

Chinese analysts believe this rate cut could encourage similar actions in China, particularly in the property market, potentially driving copper demand. "China is likely to follow the US to lower its borrowing costs especially on the property market, which may boost copper demand from the property market," an industrial analyst told Metalnomist. This development may further bolster copper prices in the medium term.

Copper prices remained relatively stable following the Fed's announcement, with only minor fluctuations recorded on both the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). Three-month LME copper prices saw a slight drop of 0.2%, settling at $9,382.5 per ton, while SHFE’s most traded October copper contract rose by 0.43% to 74,760 yuan per ton.

Despite these indicators, not everyone shares the same optimism. Some market participants expect copper prices to soften in the short term, as the rate cut had been widely anticipated. “The market has already digested the interest rate cut and copper prices had risen this week,” a trader remarked to Metalnomist. A relatively high SHFE contract price, nearing 75,000 yuan per ton, may also put pressure on downstream producers.

On the supply side, copper inventories in China are declining as downstream producers restock for the Mid-Autumn Festival. The SHFE copper stocks fell from 241,745 tons on August 30th to 185,520 tons by mid-September. This stock drawdown is providing some bullish momentum for copper prices, although some analysts remain cautious about the sustainability of this trend.

Overall, while some analysts are bullish due to falling inventories and expectations of looser monetary policy in both the US and China, others remain skeptical about the near-term outlook for copper prices, citing the market’s earlier response to the expected rate cut.

Copper Exempted from US Tariffs Amid Ongoing Supply Chain Probe

Copper Tariff

President Trump Exempts Copper as Section 232 Investigations Continue

In a significant development, copper and its derivatives were spared from additional tariffs in President Donald Trump's recent sweeping tariff announcements. The exemption comes amid a continued Section 232 investigation into the national security implications of the US's copper supply chain, which could influence future trade policies.

Ongoing Section 232 Investigations and Implications for Copper

President Trump instituted a 10% baseline tariff on all foreign imports, with additional tariffs imposed on some countries, including a 54% tariff on China. However, copper and lumber were exempted from these additional duties as the Secretary of Commerce investigates the supply chain of these materials. The investigation, which began on February 25, could take up to nine months to complete. The Department of Commerce is expected to release recommendations for new policies, which could include tariffs depending on the findings.

Currently, copper derivatives such as cathodes and wire are taxed at rates between 1% and 3%. Despite the tariff relief, the investigation’s findings could lead to future changes in tariff rates for copper and other critical materials.

Domestic Copper Production Challenges and Policy Recommendations

The US imported a total of 1.7 million metric tonnes (t) of copper and its derivatives in 2024, with copper cathodes accounting for the majority of these imports at 905,300t. The majority of copper imports came from free trade partners like Chile, Canada, Peru, and Mexico.

The US Chamber of Commerce responded to the ongoing investigation by recommending several actions to boost domestic copper production. These include tax credit incentives for domestic copper production, enhanced collaboration with allies and free trade partners, and reforming the permitting process for mining. Despite having significant copper reserves, the US faces a major challenge with a lack of domestic smelting infrastructure, with only two active copper smelters currently operating in the country.

Antofagasta Maintains Copper Production Guidance for 2025 Amid Incremental Increase at Centinela Mine

Antofagasta

London-listed mining company Antofagasta has kept its copper production guidance steady for 2025, projecting flat output compared to 2024. Despite the stable forecast, the company expects an incremental increase in copper concentrate output at its Centinela mine in Chile.

2024 and 2025 Copper Production Outlook

Antofagasta confirmed that it is on track to meet its copper production guidance for 2024, expecting to finish the year at the lower end of its previously set range of 670,000-710,000 metric tonnes (t) of copper. For 2025, the company projects production to range between 660,000-700,000t, maintaining a stable output despite the minor increase at Centinela. The increase is attributed to a boost in concentrate production at the mine, although specific details were not provided.

Third Quarter Performance

In the third quarter, Antofagasta reported a 3% year-on-year increase in copper production, rising to 179,000t from 173,600t in the same period last year. The increase was largely driven by a partial destocking of inventories at its Los Pelambres mine and improvements in copper grades and recoveries at the Centinela mine. These efforts contributed to a 15.3% quarter-on-quarter rise in copper output, reflecting the company’s ongoing optimization at its operations.

Copper Sales and Molybdenum Production

Alongside the increase in copper output, Antofagasta's copper sales grew by nearly 11.4% year-on-year to reach 176,500t in Q3, marking a 9.3% increase compared to the previous quarter. However, the company faced a decline in molybdenum production, which fell 15% year-on-year to 2,700t. Despite this, it showed an 8% improvement compared to Q2 2024.

Chile's Role in Global Copper Supply

As the world’s largest copper-producing nation, Chile plays a central role in Antofagasta's operations. The company operates four mines in the country, including the Los Pelambres and Centinela mines, which are key contributors to global copper supply. Despite challenges in the mining sector, Antofagasta continues to focus on efficiency improvements and maintaining its production levels.

Antofagasta’s stable production guidance for 2025 comes as the global copper market braces for ongoing fluctuations in demand, particularly from industries like electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy. The company's consistent output is indicative of its robust position in the global copper market, with its operations in Chile continuing to be a significant driver for the industry.

Copper 360 Restarts Rietberg Copper Mine in South Africa After Four-Decade Hiatus

Copper 360, a South African mining company, has successfully restarted operations at the Rietberg copper mine in the Northern Cape province. This marks the first time in over 40 years that copper mining has resumed in the historic Okiep copper district, where Rietberg is located.

The mine, which was initially closed in 1983, is now processing ore at the Nama Copper modular flotation plant (MFP). The company has set an ambitious target of 12,000 tonnes per month at the start, with plans to increase production to 45,000 tonnes per month within the next four months. This expansion is expected to be supported by the commissioning of a second MFP in the coming two months.

Rietberg’s current measured and indicated resource stands at 4.78 million tonnes with a copper grade of 1.27%, equating to approximately 60,800 tonnes of copper metal. This significant resource highlights the potential for substantial copper production as operations ramp up.

The reopening of Rietberg is a key part of Copper 360's broader strategy to revive several dormant mines in the region, which were originally developed by prominent gold mining companies Newmont and Gold Fields. These mines, with defined ore bodies and existing underground infrastructure, will be reactivated under Copper 360's cluster mining model, aimed at maximizing efficiency and output.

Jan Nelson, CEO of Copper 360, stated that with the restart of the Rietberg mine, the company expects that 80% of its revenue will now be derived from copper concentrate, marking a strategic shift from its previous focus on copper plate production.

The resumption of operations at Rietberg signals a significant step forward in South Africa’s mining sector, particularly in the revival of the Okiep copper district, once a thriving hub for copper production.

Tanzania Opens First Copper Processing Plant to Boost Exports

Tanzania Copper Mining

Tanzania has officially launched its first copper processing plant, signaling its ambition to become a major African copper exporter. The new facility, located in Chunya district, Mbeya region, was inaugurated by Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa and is operated by Mineral Access Systems Tanzania (Mast).

Tanzania’s Strategic Move into Copper Processing

The copper processing plant is a milestone in Tanzania’s industrial development, moving the nation away from exporting raw minerals. The facility will process low-grade copper ore containing 0.5–2pc copper into concentrate with up to 75pc purity using leaching and cementation technology. The plant’s capacity is 31,200 t/month, with 27,200t supplied from Mast’s own mine and 4,000t sourced from small-scale miners.

Expanding Domestic Copper Potential

Mast has announced plans to build three more processing plants in Manyara, Ruvuma, and Dodoma, strengthening the country’s copper production capacity. While Tanzania has traditionally focused on gold mining, rising copper prices and global demand are shifting priorities toward copper as a strategic resource. International companies are also entering the market, including Resource Mining, which has acquired copper-gold projects in Mpanda and Mbozi.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tanzania’s new copper processing facility highlights its determination to diversify beyond gold and capture value from rising copper demand. By investing in midstream capacity and encouraging small-scale miners, the country strengthens its position in Africa’s copper supply chain. Long-term success will depend on sustaining investment and ensuring reliable infrastructure.

Copper Prices Plunge Amid Rising Inventories and Global Recession Fears

Copper prices have plummeted to a two-month low as rising global stockpiles and fears of an impending economic recession weigh heavily on the market. The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper prices dropped to $8,714 per metric tonne on August 5, a significant decline from the record high of $11,104.50 per metric tonne reached on May 20. Similarly, the most traded September contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 71,390 yuan per tonne ($9,934/t) on August 7, down from a historical high of 88,940 yuan per tonne on May 20.

The decline in copper prices has been driven by a surge in global exchange copper stocks, which soared to a three-year high of 556,033 metric tonnes on August 2, up from 215,269 metric tonnes in December 2023. This increase is largely attributed to rapid output growth and subdued demand from China, the world’s largest consumer of copper.

Global refined copper production saw a 6% year-on-year increase from January to May, fueled by capacity expansions in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Chinese smelters alone added approximately 800,000 tonnes per year of new capacity, primarily in the second half of 2023. CMOC, a diversified metals and minerals producer, reported a doubling of copper production from its DRC operations to 313,400 tonnes during the first half of 2024.

Further production increases are anticipated as new projects come online in the latter half of the year. US-based mining giant Freeport McMoran recently completed the construction of its Manyar smelter in Indonesia, with a production capacity of 300,000 tonnes per year, set to begin copper cathode manufacturing soon. Additionally, Indonesia’s Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara and China’s Jinchuan Group are expected to add significant capacity in the coming months.

Despite the surge in output, copper demand growth has lagged, particularly in China. Demand is projected to increase by only 2-3% this year, hindered by a 21.8% decline in the completion of new housing projects during the first half of the year. The power grid sector, China’s second-largest consumer of copper, has also seen moderate demand growth, with investments shifting toward aluminum-intensive ultra-high voltage grids.

Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and solar photovoltaics have seen steady copper demand growth, but not enough to offset the slowdown in the real estate and power grid sectors. Market participants remain cautious about the overall outlook.

Macroeconomic concerns have further exacerbated the situation. Weaker-than-expected US employment data for July, coupled with declining manufacturing indices in both the US and China, have fueled fears of a global recession. The US Federal Reserve’s emergency meeting on August 5, following a collapse in Japan’s stock market, has added to the uncertainty.

However, some positive factors may support copper prices in the near term. A continued shortage of copper concentrate feedstock and the suspension of several Chinese secondary copper processors due to a tax rebate cancellation may lead to production cuts. Additionally, a strike at BHP’s Escondida copper mine in Chile could further tighten supply.

The rapid development of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry in the US is expected to drive copper demand in the grid system, particularly in states like Virginia, where commercial electricity demand has surged due to the growth of AI databases.

Oman Copper Concentrate Plant Secures $270 Million Financing for 115,000 t/yr Capacity

Oman Copper Mining

Oman's state-owned Minerals Development Oman (MDO) has successfully secured $270 million in financing for its ambitious copper concentrate plant project. The financing agreements, signed with regional and local banks, will fund the construction of Oman's largest integrated copper concentrate plant through MDO subsidiary Mazoon Mining.

Strategic Location and Production Capacity Drive Regional Copper Supply

The copper concentrate plant will be strategically positioned in the Wilayat of Yanqul in Al Dhahirah Governorate, near Oman's border with the United Arab Emirates. This location provides excellent access to regional markets and transportation networks. The facility will process approximately 2.5 million tonnes of ore annually, producing 115,000 tonnes of copper concentrate with 21.5% copper content.

Meanwhile, the project's ore reserves total approximately 22.9 million tonnes of copper ore, which will be extracted from five open-pit mining operations. This substantial reserve base ensures long-term production sustainability for the copper concentrate plant operations.

Local Partnerships Strengthen Oman's Mining Infrastructure

MDO has strategically partnered with local contractors for construction and service agreements, supporting domestic economic development. These partnerships demonstrate Oman's commitment to building local capacity in the mining sector. As a result, the project will create significant employment opportunities and knowledge transfer within the country's mining industry.

The copper concentrate plant represents a major milestone in Oman's diversification strategy away from oil dependence. Therefore, this investment strengthens the country's position in the global copper supply chain while developing critical mineral processing capabilities.

However, the project's success will depend on global copper market conditions and operational efficiency. The facility's 115,000 tonnes annual capacity positions it as a significant regional copper concentrate producer, contributing to Middle East mining development.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This $270 million investment signals Oman's serious commitment to becoming a major player in the regional copper market, particularly as global demand for copper continues rising due to renewable energy and electric vehicle transitions. The strategic location near the UAE border positions the facility to serve both domestic and export markets effectively.

China's Copper Scrap Imports Surge in 2024 Amid Tight Supply and Policy Changes

Copper Scrap

China’s copper scrap imports saw a notable 13% increase in 2024 as domestic refined copper producers turned to scrap due to a tightening copper concentrate supply. This shift helped offset the shortages in copper concentrate, which traditionally serves as the primary feedstock for refining operations. The increased demand for scrap also led to a significant month-on-month rise in December, with imports soaring by 25% compared to November.

December Surge Attributed to Price Dynamics and US-Related Imports

A key factor contributing to this December surge was the reopening of the import arbitrage in the second half of November. This shift occurred as domestic copper metal prices in China rose above those on the London Metal Exchange (LME), making imports more economically viable. Additionally, scrap buyers accelerated the clearance of US-origin copper scrap at customs to avoid potential countermeasures after the election of US President Donald Trump. This urgency, combined with strategic import decisions, led to a marked rise in imports in the final month of the year.

Government Policy Supports Copper Scrap Imports in 2025

In a bid to further boost the availability of copper scrap, China has expanded its import duty exemptions for recycled copper feedstocks. For 2025, the government broadened the scope of products under HS code 74040000 to include not only recycled brass and copper feedstocks but also recycled copper and alloy feedstocks. Import duties for these materials remain at zero, a move that further encourages the import of scrap and helps meet the growing demand for copper in China.

Copper Cathode Output Declines in 2023-24

Aurubis, Europe’s leading copper producer and recycler, reported a 4% drop in its copper cathode production for the 2023-24 fiscal year, totaling 578,000 tons. The decline was driven by a 30% reduction in output at its Hamburg facility, where operations were delayed following a maintenance shutdown. Despite the setback in Germany, the company maintained a solid performance in Bulgaria, with 229,000 tons produced at its Pirdop site.

Copper Wire Producer to Acquire Hussey Copper

International Wire Group

Hussey Copper’s Market Role

Copper wire producer International Wire Group (IWG) has agreed to acquire Hussey Copper from KPS Capital Partners. The deal, expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, will expand IWG’s reach across key copper markets. Although financial details remain undisclosed, the move is expected to reshape competition within North America’s copper sector.

Hussey Copper operates three facilities, including a bar mill and fabrication plant in Kentucky and its headquarters in Pennsylvania. The company produces copper and copper-nickel alloys in strip, sheet, and plate forms, while also offering casting, rolling, annealing, and plating services. Its role as a major busbar supplier makes it essential to electrical infrastructure and industrial supply chains.

Strategic Value for IWG

The acquisition will boost IWG’s position in electrical infrastructure, data centers, and electric vehicles. These sectors are driving global copper demand as electrification expands worldwide. By integrating Hussey Copper’s capabilities, IWG is set to meet surging demand while strengthening its role across the copper value chain.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal highlights the copper industry’s consolidation as energy transition markets accelerate demand. For IWG, the integration of Hussey Copper provides not only scale but also critical alignment with electrification-driven growth sectors.

Copper Trade’s Future Rests on Traders Amid Supply Chain Strains

Mercuria Energy Trading

Growing Global Demand, Concentrate Deficit, and Strategic Investments Highlight Traders’ Rising Influence in Copper Markets

The role of traders in the global copper market is becoming increasingly critical, especially as supply chain disruptions deepen. At the 2025 Mining Indaba in Cape Town, industry experts emphasized that a growing shortage of copper concentrates is driving this trend, despite sufficient metal availability in the short term.

Supply Disruptions and Demand Growth Attract Trading Houses

Copper concentrate deficits are expected to impact the refined copper market more significantly in the coming years. According to Nicholas Snowdon, Head of Metals and Mining Research at Mercuria Energy Trading, traders will fill essential gaps as disruptions rise and demand accelerates. He stated that countries such as Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are taking active steps to trade minerals directly, enhancing regional participation in the global market.

Mercuria’s December agreement with Zambia to launch a metals trading arm exemplifies how nations are seeking to gain value from local copper production. Zambia, one of Africa’s largest copper producers, aims to ramp up output to 3 million tonnes by 2030. Snowdon stressed that similar strategic partnerships will bring expertise and foster industry growth.

Gulf and Private Equity Eye Strategic Copper Assets

Beyond Africa, interest is growing from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations, which are diversifying away from fossil fuels. Even small-scale investments in copper assets by these nations reflect a broader shift towards clean energy supply chains, where copper plays a pivotal role. Despite this enthusiasm, Graeme Train of Trafigura noted that private equity involvement remains relatively nascent, though capital flow has increased in recent years.

Geopolitical Risks Pose Challenges for Copper Investment

While traders are positioned to benefit from increasing market complexities, global political tensions could threaten progress. Panellists warned that the ongoing US-China trade conflict, combined with rising tariffs and inflation risks, could stall key copper projects. Notably, about 75% of global copper ventures involve Chinese equity, raising vulnerability amid geopolitical strain.

In conclusion, traders will likely become central to navigating the copper market's evolving landscape. Their ability to manage risk, bridge supply chain gaps, and mobilize capital will define the next phase of copper’s global trade dynamics.

Ivanhoe Mines Achieves Record Copper Output at Kamoa-Kakula in October

Ivanhoe Mines

Ivanhoe Mines, a Canadian mining company, announced a significant milestone in copper production from its Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In October 2024, the Kamoa-Kakula mine reached a new record by producing 41,800 tons of copper concentrates, surpassing the previous high of 40,347 tons set in August. This marks an important achievement in the company’s ongoing expansion efforts and positions Kamoa-Kakula as one of the top global copper producers.

Strong Performance from Kamoa-Kakula’s Phase 1, 2, and 3 Concentrators

The combined output from Kamoa-Kakula's Phase 1, 2, and 3 concentrators hit a new high in October, with an impressive peak daily output of 1,720 tons of copper in concentrate on October 12. This daily output is equivalent to an annualized production rate of approximately 580,000 tons of copper. The steady performance of these concentrators underscores the operational success of the project, which continues to deliver strong results despite global economic uncertainties.

The Phase 3 concentrator, which commenced commercial production in August 2024, played a pivotal role in this achievement. With the addition of Phase 3, the mine’s copper production capacity increased from 450,000 tons per year (t/yr) to 600,000 t/yr. In October alone, the Phase 3 concentrator processed 448,478 tons of ore, contributing an additional 10,533 tons of copper-in-concentrate, representing a 42% increase in output compared to September.

Expanding Capacity for Future Growth

By October 31, Kamoa-Kakula’s combined copper production for the year totaled approximately 345,042 tons, further solidifying the project's standing as one of the most productive copper mines globally. Ivanhoe Mines is also making significant strides toward expanding the operation. The company is nearing the completion of the engineering stage for Kamoa-Kakula’s Phase 4 expansion, which promises to further boost copper production capacity and establish the mine as a leading supplier in the global copper market.

Conclusion

Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula copper complex continues to achieve impressive milestones, driving growth in both production and capacity. With the successful ramp-up of Phase 3 and the ongoing preparations for Phase 4, the DRC-based mine is positioned for further success in the global copper industry. This achievement not only highlights the company’s operational excellence but also underscores the strategic importance of Kamoa-Kakula in meeting the growing global demand for copper, especially in industries like electric vehicles, renewable energy, and infrastructure development.