EU’s Copper Imports Increase in 2024 Despite Weak Demand in Germany

EU’s Copper Imports

Refined copper imports to the EU rose by 3.2% in 2024, led by Italy and Spain, despite falling demand in Germany.

Imports Rise, But Key Markets Show Strain

EU countries imported 1.71 million tonnes of refined copper in 2024, a 3.2% increase year on year, according to customs data. Italy remained the bloc’s top importer with 543,363 tonnes, representing 32% of total EU imports.

Germany, however, experienced a 13% drop in copper imports, falling to 413,245 tonnes. This reflects persistent challenges in Germany's industrial sectors due to rising energy prices and sluggish demand. The effects of the Covid-19 aftermath and Ukraine-related energy shocks have slowed recovery across EU economies.

Spain, Sweden, and the DRC See Significant Gains

Meanwhile, Spain increased its refined copper imports by 28%, reaching 142,231 tonnes, showing resilience in its industrial sectors. Sweden saw the largest year-on-year growth, with 119% more imports, totaling 107,794 tonnes.

On the supply side, Chile remained the largest exporter, delivering 307,885 tonnes to the EU — a 21% increase from 2023. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) overtook Poland as the second-largest supplier, with 200,992 tonnes, up 11%. Together, Chile, DRC, and Poland made up 40% of the EU’s total refined copper supply in 2024.

Despite an overall 2.9% rise in global copper consumption, the EU market remains fragile. According to the International Copper Study Group, weak demand from automotive and construction sectors continues to weigh on European copper use.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU’s rising copper imports contrast sharply with the weakening of its core manufacturing sectors. Germany’s downturn reflects broader industrial deceleration, while southern and northern Europe appear more resilient. As the energy transition accelerates, copper sourcing will remain a geopolitical and industrial priority — and import trends are the first signal to watch.

US Tariffs Pressure Copper Prices and Curb China’s Scrap Imports

China Copper

US tariffs, introduced by President Donald Trump on April 2, have significantly impacted global copper prices. The tariffs, set at a minimum 10% tax on all foreign imports, have caused concerns about weakened copper demand, particularly from key industries that rely on copper, such as automobiles and home appliances. China’s copper scrap imports are also under pressure due to retaliatory tariffs, which will be implemented by China on April 10.

Impact of Tariffs on Copper Prices

Following the announcement of tariffs, copper prices saw a dramatic decline. As of April 7, London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper prices fell to a one-year low of $8,105 per ton, a significant drop from $9,721 per ton on April 2. Similarly, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) prices also plummeted to a three-month low of 73,640 yuan per ton from 79,890 yuan per ton during the same period.

Although copper itself is not directly affected by the new tariffs, the downstream sectors, such as automotive manufacturing and home appliances, face substantial tariffs. This will likely depress demand for copper, as these industries represent significant end-users of copper products.

US Tariffs on Cars and Appliances Affect Copper Demand

A 25% tariff on imported cars and trucks came into effect on April 3, with a further 25% tax on auto parts set to follow in May. The US light vehicle market saw significant growth in 2024, with sales climbing to 16.8 million units. Similarly, the US imported $23.5 billion worth of home appliances from China in 2024. These appliances, including cooling devices and electronics, represented 23% of global copper demand in 2023. The imposition of tariffs on these goods will likely lead to a reduction in copper demand from the US.

On a positive note, lower copper prices may drive copper fabricators to restock in the short term, especially after a significant price drop in late March. Data from the SHFE shows that copper stocks fell from 256,328 tons on March 21 to 225,736 tons by April 3, as downstream buyers rushed to purchase copper cathode in response to falling prices.

China’s Retaliatory Tariffs and Copper Scrap Imports

China’s planned tariffs on US copper scrap, set to take effect on April 10, will impact copper supply in the country. In 2024, China imported over 440,000 tons of copper scrap from the US, accounting for nearly 20% of its total copper scrap imports. However, market participants predict that some traders will attempt to bypass the tariffs by sourcing US-origin copper scrap from other countries.

In February, US copper scrap exports fell by 10% compared to the previous year, with China seeing the largest drop in imports. This decrease in exports can be attributed to tariff expectations, which have made it difficult for US exporters to remain competitive. The large spread between CME and LME prices has further strained export options, leaving US dealers with excess scrap volumes.

Limited Impact on Copper Concentrate and Cathode Supplies

China’s retaliatory tariffs are expected to have a minimal impact on its domestic copper concentrate and cathode supply. In 2024, China imported just 460,000 tons of copper concentrate and 1,575 tons of copper cathode from the US, representing only a small fraction of its total imports. Therefore, the retaliatory tariffs are unlikely to cause significant disruptions to these supply chains.

China's Copper Scrap Imports Surge in 2024 Amid Tight Supply and Policy Changes

Copper Scrap

China’s copper scrap imports saw a notable 13% increase in 2024 as domestic refined copper producers turned to scrap due to a tightening copper concentrate supply. This shift helped offset the shortages in copper concentrate, which traditionally serves as the primary feedstock for refining operations. The increased demand for scrap also led to a significant month-on-month rise in December, with imports soaring by 25% compared to November.

December Surge Attributed to Price Dynamics and US-Related Imports

A key factor contributing to this December surge was the reopening of the import arbitrage in the second half of November. This shift occurred as domestic copper metal prices in China rose above those on the London Metal Exchange (LME), making imports more economically viable. Additionally, scrap buyers accelerated the clearance of US-origin copper scrap at customs to avoid potential countermeasures after the election of US President Donald Trump. This urgency, combined with strategic import decisions, led to a marked rise in imports in the final month of the year.

Government Policy Supports Copper Scrap Imports in 2025

In a bid to further boost the availability of copper scrap, China has expanded its import duty exemptions for recycled copper feedstocks. For 2025, the government broadened the scope of products under HS code 74040000 to include not only recycled brass and copper feedstocks but also recycled copper and alloy feedstocks. Import duties for these materials remain at zero, a move that further encourages the import of scrap and helps meet the growing demand for copper in China.

Copper Cathode Output Declines in 2023-24

Aurubis, Europe’s leading copper producer and recycler, reported a 4% drop in its copper cathode production for the 2023-24 fiscal year, totaling 578,000 tons. The decline was driven by a 30% reduction in output at its Hamburg facility, where operations were delayed following a maintenance shutdown. Despite the setback in Germany, the company maintained a solid performance in Bulgaria, with 229,000 tons produced at its Pirdop site.

Refined Copper Flows Split Between US Stock-Build and China Demand Recovery

US Copper

Refined copper flows are being pulled in two directions as US tariff risk draws cathode into Comex warehouses while China returns to the seaborne market after a sharp fall in domestic inventories. The result is not a simple global shortage, but a more complex location-driven contest for metal.

Refined copper flows were distorted in the first quarter by financial investor activity, US policy uncertainty and weak Chinese import economics. That balance is now shifting as China’s import arbitrage reopens, while US buyers and traders continue to position ahead of possible refined copper tariffs.

Refined copper flows are therefore becoming more strategic. The same unit of cathode can carry different value depending on whether it sits in the US, China, bonded warehouses or LME storage.

This market structure matters because copper is no longer priced only against broad industrial demand. Tariff risk, warehouse location, arbitrage spreads, strategic stock-building and smelter economics are now shaping physical trade.

US Tariff Risk Keeps Pulling Copper Into Comex

US copper inventories continue to build as tariff uncertainty supports a location premium. Comex warehouse stocks rose to 615,852 short tons on 4 May, up 5% from 586,563t on 14 April.

This build does not necessarily show stronger underlying US consumption. It shows that market participants are willing to pay to position metal inside the US before potential import tariff announcements this summer.

US refined copper and unwrought copper alloy imports under HS 7403 reached 382,952t in January-February 2026. That was up 184% from 134,754t a year earlier.

The longer trend is even clearer. Imports over March 2025-February 2026 more than doubled to 1.9mn t from 923,701t in the previous 12-month period.

Arbitrage has reinforced the flow. The LME cash official to Comex cash copper arbitrage widened to minus $385.14/t on 1 May from minus $261.24/t on 30 April and minus $126.50/t on 29 April.

That widening spread signals a stronger US location premium. It gives traders an incentive to direct copper units into Comex warehouses rather than leave them available to other regional buyers.

This has important supply-chain implications. A high level of visible copper stock does not automatically mean metal is freely available to every market. If inventories are concentrated in one jurisdiction for policy reasons, other regions can tighten even while global stock numbers look comfortable.

The US stock-build is therefore a policy-driven trade flow. It reflects uncertainty over future tariff treatment, not a normal demand cycle.

For manufacturers, this creates procurement risk. Fabricators outside the US may face tighter access to marginal units if traders continue sending cathode into the American system.

For traders, location is becoming a profit centre. The value is not only in the copper price, but in where the copper is held and what policy regime applies to it.

China Import Window Reopens as Domestic Stocks Fall

China is now creating the counter pull. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse stocks fell to 201,373t on 24 April from 433,458t on 13 March.

Bonded copper stocks also slipped to 19,159t on 24 April from 22,547t on 20 March. That drawdown reopened space for imported cathode after a weak first quarter for overseas material.

China’s import arbitrage improved sharply at the end of April. The grade A copper cathode import margin rose to 427 yuan/t on 30 April from 94 yuan/t on 28 April and minus 73 yuan/t on 23 April.

If the window remains open, China’s second-quarter refined copper imports could recover from first-quarter levels. Buyers have a clearer reason to replenish domestic supply after the recent inventory draw.

However, the recovery may be uneven. High outright copper prices still limit fabricator appetite, and part of the stock draw reflects seasonal restocking after the first-quarter lull.

The wider inventory picture still does not support a broad scarcity narrative. LME copper stocks remained sizable at 398,675t, while on-warrant inventories have risen sharply since early January.

This means the market is not short everywhere. It is tight in specific locations, under specific pricing structures, and for specific buyers.

That is the core point. Refined copper flows are increasingly being shaped by regional availability rather than total visible inventory.

Smelter economics add another risk to the China outlook. Copper concentrate treatment and refining charges remain deeply negative, showing that mine supply is tight while smelting capacity remains excessive.

Chinese smelters have continued running at high rates despite negative treatment charges. High sulphuric acid by-product values have helped support operating economics.

That balance may become more fragile after China’s suspension of sulphuric acid exports from May. If more acid remains in the domestic market, smelters may face weaker by-product revenue or rising storage pressure.

If domestic acid demand cannot absorb the extra supply, some smelters may bring forward maintenance. That would tighten refined copper output later in the quarter and strengthen the case for more imports.

The refined copper market is therefore in a split-flow pattern. US policy risk is pulling copper west, while China’s inventory draw and import window are pulling metal back east.

For other regions, that creates a squeeze. Europe and other buyers may find marginal cathode harder to source even while global inventories appear adequate.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Copper is moving from a global inventory story to a location and policy story. The real risk is not that the world lacks refined copper today, but that tariff positioning, Chinese restocking and smelter economics keep redirecting the same units away from other buyers.

China Plans to Boost Domestic Copper Resources and Scrap Usage by 2027

China Copper Resources

The country's strategy focuses on expanding copper production and enhancing secondary material utilization.

China has announced plans to increase its domestic copper resources by 5-10% by 2027, along with a significant push to boost the use of secondary materials such as copper scrap. According to a February 11th statement from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the country will focus on expanding copper exploration and production in several key regions. These efforts align with China’s broader strategy to enhance its copper supply chain and reduce dependency on external sources.

Increased Domestic Copper Exploration and Smelting Projects

As part of its initiative, China will promote exploration in regions such as Tibet, Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Heilongjiang provinces. The country has already made substantial progress in discovering new copper resources, with over 20 million tonnes of new copper found in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since 2021. This is double the quantity discovered during the 2016-2020 period. To further boost copper production, China plans to develop new copper mines in these regions and integrate new smelting projects with concentrate production facilities. These projects are expected to play a key role in meeting the country’s growing demand for refined copper.

Boosting Copper Scrap Utilization

Another significant aspect of China’s strategy is increasing the use of copper scrap. Copper smelters will be encouraged to use more secondary copper, which has already become a major feedstock in the production of refined copper. In 2023, more than 31% of China's refined copper came from scrap, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA). To support this, the government plans to back the construction of new copper scrap recycling facilities and increase imports of copper scrap. In 2024, China’s copper scrap imports rose by 13%, reaching over 2.25 million tonnes, as smelters shifted to more cost-effective scrap rather than concentrates due to higher concentrate prices.

Global Copper Supply and Smelting Capacity

China’s increased demand for copper concentrate, along with the country’s focus on smelting capacity expansions, is expected to tighten global copper concentrate supply. This supply crunch has already led to a decline in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) since 2024. Market participants suggest that smelting capacity expansions may outpace new copper mine projects, contributing to continued global supply tightness in 2025.

Conclusion

China’s push to increase domestic copper resources and enhance the use of secondary materials, such as copper scrap, reflects a strategic move to secure its position in the global copper market. With growing demand for refined copper and a constrained global supply of copper concentrates, the country’s efforts to expand production capacity and increase recycling will be essential to meeting future copper needs.

EQ copper premiums set to climb in 2026 as China embraces DRC supply

Copper

EQ copper premiums are poised to rise in 2026 as China deepens its adoption of equivalent-quality cathodes sourced from the DRC. Market participants expect EQ copper premiums to move sharply higher from today’s levels, reflecting tighter discounts in the DRC and shifting global trade flows. As a result, EQ copper premiums are becoming a critical signal for Chinese fabricators and global copper traders alike.

EQ copper premiums linked to DRC discounts and shifting trade flows

EQ copper premiums today sit around $30–35/t cif Shanghai, but traders already flag upside for 2026. This year’s term deals for EQ copper premiums were agreed at just $5–10/t, so a move toward $30/t would mark a structural reset. The key driver is cost escalation in the DRC, where discounts to LME prices have narrowed as local prices firm.

Meanwhile, rapid production growth in the DRC has transformed EQ copper’s role in China’s import mix. EQ copper cathode, largely DRC-origin, now accounts for more than a third of China’s cathode imports, up from about 10pc in 2020. At the same time, Chilean cathode has been diverted toward the US, amid tariff speculation, with China’s imports from Chile falling by 45pc year on year in January–August 2025. Therefore EQ copper premiums increasingly reflect both DRC mine economics and changing global copper trade patterns.

EQ copper premiums narrow the gap to exchange-listed cathode

The premium spread between exchange-registered cathodes and EQ copper premiums has narrowed to roughly $30/t this month. Previously, the spread hovered around $50/t in the second quarter, when Chinese buyers still favoured exchange-listed cathodes. However, rising flat prices and tighter LME–SHFE arbitrage have pushed many fabricators toward EQ material.

Chinese cable makers and fabricators now treat EQ cathode as a mainstream choice, thanks to reliable quality and lower all-in costs. As a result, EQ copper premiums are no longer a marginal discount indicator but a core benchmark in the Chinese physical market. At the same time, SuperMetalPrice launch of a dedicated EQ copper import premium assessment formalises this shift and gives traders a clearer pricing reference tied to the LME cash price.

EQ copper premiums sit within a wider zinc and copper premium realignment

EQ copper premiums are rising against a backdrop of broader base metal premium recalibration. Domestic Grade-A copper premiums in China, referenced to SHFE front-month, remain in a modest band from a slight discount to a small premium. Import arbitrage has improved, with the newly assessed copper cathode arbitrage at -Yn280/t, up from deeper negative levels earlier in September, which supports seaborne interest.

At the same time, zinc and other base metal premiums remain capped by weak downstream demand, even as LME stock draws offer support. This creates an unusual environment where EQ copper premiums strengthen on supply and trade-flow dynamics, while broader consumption indicators stay soft. For global traders, EQ copper premiums now sit at the intersection of DRC mine supply, Chinese import arbitrage, and evolving risk pricing around non-exchange material.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EQ copper premiums are emerging as a strategic barometer for China’s copper supply security and DRC exposure. If 2026 term negotiations lock in markedly higher EQ copper premiums, that will confirm EQ cathode’s shift from discount alternative to benchmark feedstock. Watch how Chile–US trade flows and DRC discount behaviour evolve, because both will dictate whether EQ copper premiums continue to climb beyond the $30/t threshold.

CMOC Copper Output Rose in 2025 on Stronger DRC Production

Copper Wire

CMOC copper output increased in 2025 as the Chinese diversified metals producer lifted production from its copper-cobalt operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The company produced 741,100t of copper during the year, up 14% from 2024.

The increase was driven by higher output from both the Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine and the Kisanfu copper-cobalt mine. These assets remain central to CMOC’s copper growth strategy and to China’s access to African copper cathode supply.

CMOC copper output is expected to rise again in 2026, with the company targeting production of 760,000-820,000t. CMOC also plans to expand copper production at Kisanfu by another 100,000 t/yr in 2027.

DRC Assets Strengthen CMOC’s Copper Growth Platform

CMOC’s production growth reinforces the strategic importance of the DRC in global copper supply. The country has become one of the most important sources of copper cathode for China, supported by large-scale mining, solvent extraction and electrowinning capacity.

Tenke Fungurume remains a key asset in this system. The mine has copper cathode capacity of 270,000 t/yr, and its TFM-1 copper cathode brand was approved by the London Metal Exchange for listing on 27 March.

The LME approval strengthens the marketability of CMOC’s DRC-produced copper. Exchange-listed status can improve brand recognition, liquidity and acceptance among global buyers, especially in refined copper markets where cathode quality and deliverability matter.

China’s Copper Supply Chain Leans Heavily on DRC Cathode

The DRC remained China’s largest source of copper cathode imports in 2025. China imported 1.44mn t of copper cathode from the country, accounting for 37.6% of total imports.

This trade flow highlights the depth of China’s dependence on DRC copper supply. As domestic demand from grids, manufacturing, electric vehicles and energy infrastructure continues, stable access to DRC cathode remains strategically important.

CMOC copper output growth also has wider market implications. Additional production from Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu can help offset disruptions in other copper regions, but it also increases the role of African supply in balancing global refined copper markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CMOC’s 2025 copper growth shows how the DRC has become a core pillar of China’s refined copper security. The next strategic question is whether rising African cathode supply can remain reliable amid infrastructure, policy and geopolitical risks.

CMOC Copper Output Rises as DRC Mines Strengthen China Supply

CMOC

CMOC copper output increased in the first quarter of 2026 as higher production from the company’s Democratic Republic of Congo copper-cobalt mines lifted supply. The Chinese diversified metals producer produced 187,880t of copper in January-March, up 10% from a year earlier.

CMOC copper output was supported by stronger production at the Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu mines. These assets are central to China’s copper and cobalt feedstock security because they supply large volumes of cathode and intermediate material from one of the world’s most important copper-cobalt districts.

CMOC copper output is expected to remain a major market focus this year. The company is targeting 760,000-820,000t of copper production in 2026, after producing 741,100t in 2025.

The result reinforces the DRC’s role as China’s largest imported copper cathode source. China imported 275,359t of copper cathode from the DRC in the first quarter, equal to 37.5% of total imports.

Tenke and Kisanfu Anchor CMOC’s Copper Growth

CMOC’s first-quarter copper growth reflects the scale and strategic importance of its DRC operations. Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu remain core assets for the company’s copper-cobalt portfolio.

The company plans to expand output at Kisanfu by adding 100,000 t/yr of copper cathode capacity. Completion is targeted for 2027.

The expansion could also lift cobalt capacity. CMOC has not disclosed the planned increase, but market participants expect Kisanfu’s cobalt capacity to rise by more than 30,000 t/yr.

This matters because copper and cobalt are increasingly linked in DRC project economics. Higher copper output can bring additional cobalt units into the market, depending on ore composition, processing rates and export rules.

The London Metal Exchange approval of CMOC’s TFM-1 copper cathode brand adds another layer of market significance. The brand, produced at Tenke Fungurume, was approved for listing on 27 March and has a registered production capacity of 270,000 t/yr.

Exchange approval improves brand visibility and market acceptance. It can also support trade liquidity, financing and customer confidence for DRC-origin copper cathode.
China’s copper cathode import structure shows why this is important. The DRC already supplies more than one-third of China’s imported cathode, making Congolese supply critical to Chinese refined copper availability.

The China grade-A copper cathode premium was steady at $55-70/t cif Shanghai on 23 April. The range narrowed from $55-75/t a week earlier, showing a relatively stable but cautious spot market.

Cobalt Output Stays Flat as Quotas Restrict Feedstock Flows

CMOC’s cobalt production was largely unchanged in the first quarter. The company produced 30,508t of cobalt, up only 0.3% from a year earlier.

The company set its 2026 cobalt output guidance at 100,000-120,000t. That is broadly stable against 117,549t produced in 2025.

The flat cobalt outlook reflects a more complicated market. The DRC suspended cobalt feedstock exports from 22 February to 15 October 2025 before moving to a quota-based export system for the fourth quarter of 2025 and for 2026-27.

Administrative delays have slowed the quota system. The DRC extended fourth-quarter 2025 quotas to 31 March 2026 because of slow processing.

The effect on Chinese imports has been severe. China imported only 1,278t cobalt metal equivalent of cobalt intermediate feedstock in January-February, down 96% from a year earlier.

Cobalt hydroxide prices remained stable at $25.95-26.10/lb cif China on 23 April. But the stability masks a market still shaped by restricted DRC export flows, delayed allocations and uncertainty over quota administration.

For CMOC, the copper side of the portfolio is showing clear growth. The cobalt side remains more exposed to policy risk, export controls and administrative timing in the DRC.

The Kisanfu expansion could increase future cobalt availability, but the market impact will depend on whether DRC export rules allow material to move smoothly to downstream refiners.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CMOC’s first-quarter results show that DRC copper remains essential to China’s refined copper supply, while cobalt is increasingly constrained by policy rather than production alone. The strategic issue is no longer just mine output, but whether export quotas, brand approvals and logistics can keep critical metal flows moving.

Copper Exempted from US Tariffs Amid Ongoing Supply Chain Probe

Copper Tariff

President Trump Exempts Copper as Section 232 Investigations Continue

In a significant development, copper and its derivatives were spared from additional tariffs in President Donald Trump's recent sweeping tariff announcements. The exemption comes amid a continued Section 232 investigation into the national security implications of the US's copper supply chain, which could influence future trade policies.

Ongoing Section 232 Investigations and Implications for Copper

President Trump instituted a 10% baseline tariff on all foreign imports, with additional tariffs imposed on some countries, including a 54% tariff on China. However, copper and lumber were exempted from these additional duties as the Secretary of Commerce investigates the supply chain of these materials. The investigation, which began on February 25, could take up to nine months to complete. The Department of Commerce is expected to release recommendations for new policies, which could include tariffs depending on the findings.

Currently, copper derivatives such as cathodes and wire are taxed at rates between 1% and 3%. Despite the tariff relief, the investigation’s findings could lead to future changes in tariff rates for copper and other critical materials.

Domestic Copper Production Challenges and Policy Recommendations

The US imported a total of 1.7 million metric tonnes (t) of copper and its derivatives in 2024, with copper cathodes accounting for the majority of these imports at 905,300t. The majority of copper imports came from free trade partners like Chile, Canada, Peru, and Mexico.

The US Chamber of Commerce responded to the ongoing investigation by recommending several actions to boost domestic copper production. These include tax credit incentives for domestic copper production, enhanced collaboration with allies and free trade partners, and reforming the permitting process for mining. Despite having significant copper reserves, the US faces a major challenge with a lack of domestic smelting infrastructure, with only two active copper smelters currently operating in the country.

LME Copper Cathode Supply Could Rise as Chinese Smelters Push EQ Listings

Chinese Copper

LME copper cathode supply could increase as more Chinese smelters seek to register equivalent quality cathodes on the London Metal Exchange. The move reflects a push to capture higher premiums for material that is close to LME-registered brands in quality.

The near-term impact on LME copper cathode supply is likely to be limited. However, more registrations could gradually widen deliverable copper availability and give buyers more alternatives to traditional registered cathode brands.

Chinese smelters are targeting the premium gap between EQ cathode and fully registered material. African-origin registered copper usually earns a higher premium than EQ cathode, but it still trades below Chilean registered brands because many African cathodes are solvent-extraction and electrowinning products with slightly higher impurity levels.

DRC Cathode Listings Expand China-Linked LME Supply

The London Metal Exchange recently approved China Nonferrous Mining’s SMD copper cathode brand for listing. The brand is produced at the Deziwa project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has copper cathode capacity of 80,000 t/yr.

The Deziwa project is jointly owned by CNMC and the DRC’s state-owned mining company. It hosts 4.6mn t of copper metal resources and 420,000t of cobalt metal resources, giving it strategic value across both copper and battery metal supply chains.

CNMC’s production profile also shows a shift toward more refined copper output. The group produced 130,232t of copper cathode in 2025, up 3% from a year earlier, while copper blister output fell by 33% to 192,266t.

The LME has also approved CMOC’s TFM 1 copper cathode brand for listing. That brand is produced at Tenke Fungurume in the DRC, reinforcing the country’s growing role in exchange-deliverable copper supply.

Premium Strategy Could Reshape Refined Copper Trade Flows

LME copper cathode supply strategy is becoming more important as Chinese-linked producers look to improve market access and price realisation. Listing cathode brands can improve buyer acceptance, increase liquidity and narrow discounts against established registered brands.

The DRC is already China’s largest source of copper cathode imports. China imported 1.44mn t of copper cathode from the DRC in 2025, equal to 37.6% of total imports.

More LME-approved DRC brands could change how buyers view African cathode. If quality, documentation and deliverability improve, some buyers may become less dependent on higher-premium registered material from other origins.

Still, the immediate effect should remain modest. LME registration does not automatically mean large volumes will flow onto warrant, but it does increase optionality for producers, traders and consumers in a market where brand status affects pricing power.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Chinese EQ cathode push shows that copper competition is moving into brand approval, deliverability and premium capture. The bigger implication is that DRC copper is becoming not only a Chinese import source, but a growing part of the LME-recognised refined copper system.

Hailiang Saudi Copper JV Targets Middle East Processing Growth

Rawas

Hailiang Saudi copper JV plans will give Chinese copper products producer Zhejiang Hailiang a new manufacturing platform in Saudi Arabia. The company plans to form a joint venture with Saudi investment firm Rawas to build a $566mn copper processing plant at the port of Dammam.

The Hailiang Saudi copper JV is planned with 150,000 t/yr of copper processing capacity. The plant will include copper pipes, copper bars, recycled copper and copper foil, giving the project a broad downstream product mix.

The agreement gives Hailiang a 51% stake in the venture, while Rawas will hold 49%. The project still requires approval from the Saudi government and Hailiang’s shareholders before the partners finalise the investment.

The Hailiang Saudi copper JV reflects a wider shift in the copper products industry. Chinese processors are increasingly looking overseas to secure market access, reduce trade exposure and position closer to growth regions in the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

Dammam Plant Adds Copper Foil and Recycling Capacity

The planned Dammam plant will include 30,000 t/yr of copper pipe capacity and 20,000 t/yr of copper bar capacity. These products support construction, cooling systems, power infrastructure, industrial equipment and manufacturing supply chains.

The project also includes 50,000 t/yr of recycled copper capacity. This is strategically important because copper scrap is becoming a more valuable feedstock as concentrate markets tighten and buyers seek lower-carbon copper units.

The planned 50,000 t/yr of copper foil capacity adds a higher-value growth angle. Copper foil is used in batteries, electronics, printed circuit boards and advanced electrical applications. That gives the project relevance beyond traditional copper tube and bar markets.

The product mix suggests Hailiang is not only targeting commodity copper processing. It is building a downstream platform that can serve infrastructure, energy, electronics and battery-related demand from one regional base.

Dammam also offers logistical value. A port location can support raw material imports, finished product exports and access to Gulf, African and European customers. This could help Hailiang build a wider regional distribution network.

Saudi Arabia Gains Value-Added Copper Manufacturing Role

Hailiang said it aims to capitalise on Saudi Arabia’s copper ore resources, energy cost advantages and policy environment. These factors align with Saudi Arabia’s wider ambition to expand industrial manufacturing and mineral value chains.

For Saudi Arabia, the project could support a shift from resource availability toward value-added processing. Copper products are increasingly important for grids, buildings, cooling systems, EV infrastructure, renewable energy and industrial electrification.

The inclusion of recycled copper also fits the growing importance of circular metal supply. If Saudi Arabia can combine scrap collection, energy advantages and downstream manufacturing, it could strengthen its role in regional copper supply chains.

However, the project faces uncertainty. Hailiang said it is closely monitoring Middle East developments and their potential impact on site selection, construction progress, personnel safety and future operations.

The construction timeline has not yet been fixed. The partners will determine the schedule according to market conditions after the joint-venture agreement receives the required approvals.

This cautious approach is important. Middle East industrial projects can offer strong energy and logistics advantages, but geopolitical risk, financing timing, permitting and supply-chain security can still affect execution.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hailiang’s Saudi venture shows how Chinese copper processors are internationalising downstream capacity, not only exporting products. The project’s real value lies in combining copper foil, recycling and regional market access inside Saudi Arabia’s industrial diversification strategy.

China’s Copper Scrap Imports Drop in September Amid Narrowing Price Spreads

Copper Scrap

China’s copper scrap imports declined by 5.4% in September, reflecting market shifts driven by narrowing price spreads between refined copper and copper scrap. According to market participants, the spread, which began at over 2,000 yuan per ton (Yn/t) at the start of August, contracted to around 1,200 yuan/t ($169/t) by the end of the month as copper prices hit a five-month low.

Market Dynamics and Buyer Behavior

The narrower price spread dampened the interest of fabricated product producers in purchasing scrap. Many Chinese copper smelters and secondary producers chose to remain on the sidelines, avoiding major scrap purchases once the spread fell below the perceived reasonable threshold of 1,400 yuan/t.

At the same time, sellers exhibited hesitancy to deliver copper scrap during August's price slump, preferring to wait for higher prices. This shift in behavior further impacted the availability and movement of scrap in September.

The Broader Impact of Rising Costs

Adding to the complexities, many refined copper producers opted to use copper scrap as a substitute for copper concentrate. This switch was driven by the significantly higher costs of copper concentrate, leading to a 16% rise in China’s copper scrap imports during the January-September period.

However, the copper concentrate market faced its own challenges, including a persistent supply crunch that resulted in a sharp 85% drop in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) over the same timeframe.

Outlook

With copper prices and market conditions remaining volatile, China’s copper trade dynamics are expected to continue adjusting as producers and buyers navigate fluctuating costs and price spreads.

Goldman Sachs Raises Copper Price Forecast for 2H25

Goldman Sachs

Supply shortages and Section 232 probe drive outlook

Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for the second half of 2025, citing tightening inventories and ongoing US trade policy uncertainty. The bank now expects the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price to average $9,890/t, up from its earlier estimate of $9,140/t. Prices are forecast to peak at $10,050/t in August before easing to $9,700/t by December, as the Section 232 investigation continues to influence trade flows.

Copper inventories fall as US imports surge

On-warrant LME warehouse stocks have dropped by 77pc since January, with levels now at 57,650t. Goldman Sachs highlighted that the US has already over-imported about 400,000t of copper this year, widening the spread between Comex and LME prices. The firm expects copper inflows into the US to continue until September, when the investigation may impose a 25pc tariff on US copper imports.

Despite record imports, Goldman Sachs projects a global copper surplus of 105,000t for 2025. The US surplus of 400,000t will be partly offset by a 100,000t deficit in China and a 200,000t deficit in other regions. This dynamic underscores how regional trade disruptions are reshaping global copper flows.

Longer-term copper market expectations

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs trimmed its 2026 copper price forecast to $10,000/t, down from $10,170/t. The bank now expects a smaller 55,000t deficit in 2026, compared with the earlier estimate of 120,000t. While medium-term demand remains resilient from electrification and energy transition sectors, the supply-demand balance will hinge on trade barriers, production ramp-ups, and Chinese market behavior.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Goldman Sachs’ revised copper price forecast highlights the growing role of geopolitics in shaping commodity markets. With US tariffs looming and Chinese deficits persisting, copper prices may see continued volatility despite the overall global surplus. Investors and producers alike must prepare for policy-driven disruptions that increasingly rival fundamentals in setting market direction.

Global Refined Copper Surplus Expands as Smelter Output Outpaces Demand

Copper

Global refined copper surplus widened sharply in 2025 as refined production grew faster than consumption despite persistent mine disruptions. The International Copper Study Group reported a preliminary surplus of 380,000t, up from 69,000t in 2024, signaling a looser refined market balance than many copper buyers expected.

The global refined copper surplus reached 437,000t after adjusting for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks. This reflected strong refined production growth, particularly in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo, even as mine supply growth remained constrained by operational incidents, lower grades, and major disruptions at key assets.

World refined copper production rose by 4.2pc to 28.54mn t in 2025. Primary output increased by 3.9pc, while secondary production from scrap rose by 5.8pc. The expansion shows that smelting, refining, and recycling capacity can continue lifting refined supply even when mine growth remains limited.

China and the DRC Drive Refined Copper Output Growth

China and the DRC were the main drivers of refined copper production growth in 2025. Together, they account for around 57pc of global refined output and recorded combined growth of about 9pc. Excluding these two countries, world refined production fell by around 1.8pc, showing how concentrated refined copper growth has become.

Asia outside China faced weaker production. Output fell by 3.7pc as maintenance shutdowns in Japan reduced the country’s production by 8.2pc and the Pasar refinery in the Philippines closed. Indonesia added new capacity through the Amman and Manyar smelters, but operational issues and disruptions linked to Grasberg limited the impact.

Chile also weighed on refined supply outside the main growth centres. Refined copper production fell by 10pc, with electrolytic output from concentrates down 16pc amid maintenance shutdowns. SX-EW production also declined by 6.8pc, reinforcing the pressure on one of the world’s most important copper-producing countries.

Mine Disruptions Keep Supply Risk Alive Despite Higher Inventories

Mine production increased by only around 1pc to 23.13mn t in 2025. Concentrate output was broadly flat, while SX-EW output rose by 3pc. New projects supported growth, but lower grades and operational disruptions prevented a stronger mine-side recovery.

Major incidents at Kamoa and Grasberg were especially important. Kamoa’s output fell after a seismic incident, while Indonesian mine production dropped by around 43pc because of lower Batu Hijau output, Grasberg maintenance, and the mud rush incident at Grasberg. These events show why copper supply risk remains high even when refined inventories are rising.

Consumption also grew, but not fast enough to absorb new refined supply. World apparent refined copper usage rose by about 3pc to 28.16mn t. Chinese apparent demand increased by around 4pc, but net refined imports fell by 15pc as imports declined and exports jumped. Outside China, growth in parts of Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa offset weakness in the EU and Japan.

The global refined copper surplus became more visible late in the year. December refined production reached 2.43mn t, while usage was 2.26mn t, creating a monthly surplus of 173,000t. Global refined stocks rose to 1.776mn t at year-end, while exchange stocks at the LME, Comex, and SHFE reached 933,641t at the end of January 2026, the highest level since September 2003.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The global refined copper surplus does not remove copper’s long-term supply challenge, but it changes the near-term market psychology. Copper now faces a split reality: refined metal looks looser, while mine disruptions still threaten the concentrate pipeline behind future supply.

China's Copper Imports Decline Amid Global Supply Shortage

China's Copper

In August 2023, China's copper concentrate imports dropped by 4.6% compared to the same period in 2022, according to recent customs data. This decline is primarily attributed to a global shortage of copper concentrate, driven by production disruptions at key mining sites worldwide. Despite a surge in domestic demand from copper smelters, which saw an additional 800,000 tons of smelting capacity come online during the second half of 2023, supply constraints outweighed the demand increase.

China's smelters, anticipating peak activity in September and October, boosted imports by 18.9% from July to restock reserves. A key factor in China's sourcing strategy has been increased imports from Serbia, making up 30.5% of China’s total copper concentrate imports from January to August—an increase of 26.7% compared to the previous year. This rise is largely due to Zijin Mining’s expansion at the Cukaru Peki copper-gold mine in Serbia.

The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s refined copper production reached 8.908 million tons from January to August, a 6.2% year-on-year increase, underscoring China's ability to ramp up production despite global supply challenges.

Josemaria Copper Offtake Transfer Strengthens Mitsui’s Position in Argentina Supply Chain

Jogmec

Josemaria copper offtake rights have become a strategic supply-chain asset for Japan after state-owned Jogmec transferred its 40% copper concentrate offtake option from Argentina’s Josemaria project to Mitsui. The transfer gives the Japanese trading house potential access to a large future copper concentrate stream from one of South America’s key emerging copper districts.

Jogmec awarded the option through a competitive bidding process. The agency had retained the offtake right after participating in joint exploration around the Josemaria area from 2009 to 2017. Although the transaction value was not disclosed, the industrial significance is clear. Japan is trying to secure copper raw materials before energy transition demand tightens global competition.

The Josemaria project is being developed by Vicuña Corp, a joint venture between Lundin Mining and BHP. Vicuña is also studying integrated development with the nearby Filo del Sol deposit, creating the potential for a larger copper district in Argentina’s San Juan province.

Mitsui Gains Access to a Meaningful Copper Concentrate Stream

The Josemaria copper offtake option could give Mitsui access to 40% of future concentrate output from the deposit. Vicuña estimates Josemaria could produce about 715,000 tonnes per year of copper concentrate during the first six years of operations.

That 40% share would equal around 286,000 tonnes per year of concentrate. Jogmec said this volume corresponds to roughly 77,000 tonnes per year of contained copper. For Japan, this is not a minor allocation. It would represent about 6.16% of the country’s projected copper concentrate imports in 2025.

The transfer therefore gives Mitsui a potentially important position in long-term copper procurement. It also reinforces the role of Japanese trading houses as strategic intermediaries between mine developers, smelters, and industrial consumers.

Japan Moves to Diversify Copper Supply as Demand Rises

Japan’s copper supply strategy is becoming more urgent as electrification, digital infrastructure, renewable power, data centers, and grid investment increase copper intensity. These sectors require stable flows of copper concentrate for smelting and refining, making upstream offtake access more valuable.

The Josemaria copper offtake transfer also reflects a broader shift in resource security policy. Japan does not have large domestic copper mine supply, so overseas mine partnerships and offtake rights remain central to industrial resilience.

Argentina’s copper sector is increasingly important in this context. Projects such as Josemaria and Filo del Sol could help diversify global concentrate supply away from more mature producing regions. For Japanese companies, securing exposure to this pipeline supports both supply diversification and long-term competitiveness.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Josemaria copper offtake transfer shows how copper security is moving upstream. For Japan, the key issue is not only price exposure, but access to future concentrate before global demand tightens further.

Sulfur Supply Disruptions Threaten Copper Cathode Production

Copper Cathode

Sulfur supply disruptions are emerging as a serious risk for copper cathode production as the US-Israeli-Iran war disrupts shipping and tightens global sulfur availability. Copper producers rely on sulfuric acid to leach, dissolve, and refine copper into high-purity cathode.

The Middle East supplies roughly one-quarter of global sulfur output, while nearly half of sulfur shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz. A de facto closure of the route has delayed deliveries and raised concern across copper supply chains.

Sulfur supply disruptions matter because sulfur is the key feedstock for sulfuric acid. Without stable acid supply, copper producers face higher costs, slower processing, lower cathode output, and possible bottlenecks between mining and refining.

African Copper Producers Face the Highest Sulfuric Acid Risk

African copper producers face the greatest exposure because the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia depend heavily on imported sulfuric acid. Much of that supply moves through Middle East-linked shipping routes, making both countries vulnerable to prolonged logistics disruption.

Sulfuric acid plays a central role in electrowinning, where producers leach copper from lower-grade ore to create copper sulfate solution. Electrolysis then deposits copper onto cathode plates.

Sulfuric acid also supports electrorefining, where impure copper anodes dissolve in a sulfuric acid and copper sulfate solution. The process leaves impurities behind and plates 99.9% pure copper onto cathode starter sheets.

If acid supply remains tight, DRC and Zambian producers could face lower cathode output and higher operating costs. Ore stockpiling may also rise if refining capacity cannot keep pace with mined material.

Regional Exposure Could Reshape Refined Copper Premiums

China faces a second tier of exposure because its large smelting and leaching base requires substantial sulfuric acid supply. Chinese smelters generate sulfuric acid as a byproduct, which offers some short-term protection, but lower sulfur imports could still raise domestic acid prices and pressure leaching operations.

Chile and Peru appear more insulated because their copper industries rely more heavily on sulfide ore smelting, which produces sulfuric acid internally. Chile still has exposure through leaching operations, but both countries carry less direct risk than African cathode producers.

Sulfur supply disruptions could therefore reshape regional copper premiums if shortages persist. Refined cathode supply may tighten, production costs may rise, and consumers could increase their use of higher-grade copper scrap where substitution is technically feasible.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sulfur is often treated as a secondary input, but this disruption shows its strategic role in copper refining. The copper market may focus on mine output, yet sulfuric acid availability can decide how much copper actually reaches cathode form.

China’s Copper Concentrate Imports Decline in November Amid Smelter Maintenance

China’s Copper

China’s copper concentrate imports fell for the second consecutive month in November 2023, dropping 3% from October and 8.1% year-on-year, as maintenance activities at major copper smelters curtailed demand for feedstock. According to market participants, the affected smelters collectively have an annual production capacity of 2 million tonnes (mn t).

Despite the overall decline, imports from Serbia surged by 26% year-on-year between January and November. This growth is largely attributed to Zijin Mining’s expansion of the Cukaru Peki copper-gold mine, reinforcing China's strategy of securing overseas supply sources.

Supply Shortages Persist Despite Rising Demand

A global shortage of copper concentrate continues to challenge the market, driven by production disruptions at major mines. This supply tightness has been exacerbated by the addition of 800,000 t/yr of new smelting capacity in China in 2023, particularly in the latter half of the year, following the restart and commissioning of several facilities.

Despite the November decline, China's copper concentrate imports increased by 2.1% year-on-year for January-November 2023, supported by a 4.6% rise in domestic refined copper production, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

Tight Copper Concentrate Market Expected in 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, the copper concentrate market is projected to remain tight as smelting capacity expansions outpace new copper mine launches and expansions. This imbalance may sustain pressure on feedstock availability, keeping treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) low and reinforcing concerns over raw material supply security.

Brazil Mineral Exports Rise as Imports Climb on Fertilizer Feedstock Demand

Brazil Mining

Brazil mineral exports increased in the first quarter of 2026, while imports rose more sharply as the country continued to rely on overseas supply for fertilizer-related minerals. National mining institute Ibram reported that mineral exports rose by nearly 1% from a year earlier, while imports increased by 15%.

Brazil mineral exports reached around 87.9mn t in the quarter, with China remaining the main destination. Iron ore accounted for nearly 54% of total shipments, reinforcing its central role in Brazil’s mining trade balance.

Brazil mineral exports continued to support a large sectoral surplus. The mineral trade surplus reached around $9.3bn in the first quarter, up 20% from the same period in 2025, supported by exports of iron ore, gold and copper.

Iron Ore, Gold and Copper Anchor Brazil’s Mining Surplus

Iron ore remained Brazil’s dominant mineral export in the first quarter. This reflects the country’s established role as one of the world’s key suppliers to steelmaking markets, especially China.

Gold and copper also contributed to export value. These metals are strategically important because gold supports financial and industrial demand, while copper is increasingly tied to grids, electrification, construction and manufacturing.

The rise in the mining trade surplus shows that Brazil’s mineral sector remains a strong foreign-exchange earner. Even modest export volume growth can generate a larger surplus when high-value commodities and stronger pricing conditions support trade values.

China’s role remains especially important. Brazilian iron ore exports depend heavily on Chinese steel demand, infrastructure activity and industrial production. Any slowdown in China can therefore affect Brazil’s mining revenue outlook.

Imports Highlight Fertilizer and Industrial Supply Dependence

Brazil imported 10mn t of mineral products in the first quarter. The US was the largest supplier, accounting for 19% of mineral imports, while Colombia and Canada each supplied about 13%.

Potassium, coal and sulphur led import flows. These materials are important for fertilizer supply and industrial activity, showing that Brazil’s mineral strength does not remove its dependence on imported inputs.

Potassium is especially important for Brazil’s agricultural sector. The country is a major global food producer, but fertilizer supply remains exposed to international trade flows and geopolitical risk.

Sulphur imports also matter because sulphur is used to produce sulphuric acid, a critical input for fertilizers, chemical processing and some mining operations. Coal imports continue to support industrial and energy-related demand.

Ibram projects mining sector investment to rise by 12.5% by 2030, reaching $76.9bn. Critical minerals could account for almost 28% of that total, or $21.3bn.

This investment outlook points to a broader shift in Brazil’s mining strategy. Iron ore will remain the export backbone, but copper, nickel, lithium, rare earths, graphite and other critical minerals could gain strategic importance as global supply chains diversify.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brazil’s first-quarter trade data show a mining sector that remains strong in exports but still dependent on imported fertilizer and industrial inputs. The next opportunity lies in converting critical minerals investment into higher-value production beyond the country’s traditional iron ore base.

China's Copper Scrap Imports Surge in July Amid Narrowed Arbitrage Losses

China's copper scrap imports rose sharply in July, increasing by 14.8% from the previous month, driven by a reduction in import arbitrage losses that had previously discouraged purchases. The narrowing of the arbitrage loss, which fell to between -Yn1,000 and -Yn1,500 per tonne in June from nearly -Yn6,000 per tonne in May, played a key role in this surge.

In May, the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw three-month copper prices reach a record high of $11,104.50 per tonne, making copper concentrate an increasingly expensive feedstock for Chinese producers. In response to the rising costs, many refined copper producers in China turned to copper scrap as an alternative, leading to a 20% increase in copper scrap imports during the first half of the year.

The supply crunch for copper concentrate significantly impacted the market, pushing treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) down by 88% from January to June. The shift towards copper scrap was further accelerated by the cancellation of a tax rebate on 1 August, prompting most secondary copper processors to purchase scrap at the full tax rate. This trend is expected to continue into August, supported by the narrower import arbitrage losses in July.