European Aluminum CBAM Flaws Warning Highlights Competitiveness Risks

European Aluminum CBAM

European Aluminum CBAM flaws emerged as critical concerns as the industry association warned that the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism threatens bloc competitiveness ahead of tomorrow's European Parliament vote. The European Aluminum CBAM flaws assessment, conducted by Ramboll Management Consulting, identifies three fundamental design issues that could actively harm Europe's aluminum industry while providing unfair advantages to importers who avoid carbon costs across their full value chains.

Scrap Content Verification Creates Competitive Disadvantages

European Aluminum CBAM flaws include significant challenges in accurately verifying scrap content within aluminum products imported into the EU. The difficulty in verification enables importers to over-declare scrap content, avoiding carbon costs while redirecting higher scrap content products toward EU markets for financial incentives. This manipulation provides importers substantial advantages over EU producers who face carbon costs across their complete value chain operations.

Meanwhile, Ramboll recommends assigning default values to all imported primary and secondary metal to eliminate domestic disadvantages. This approach would prevent gaming of scrap content declarations while ensuring competitive parity between domestic and imported aluminum products. The current verification system's inadequacy undermines CBAM's intended purpose of leveling competitive playing fields.

Aluminum scrap

Alumina Inclusion Could Drastically Increase EU Costs

However, the study argues that adding aluminum feedstock alumina to CBAM parameters could raise EU alumina costs by 12-16% by 2030, escalating to 24% by 2034. These cost increases would severely impact European aluminum smelter competitiveness while potentially driving production offshore. Ramboll recommends excluding alumina from CBAM until comprehensive downstream sector coverage ensures balanced implementation.

Therefore, the report suggests creating dedicated emissions trading scheme benchmarks for alumina rather than incorporating it directly into CBAM mechanisms. This alternative approach would address carbon leakage concerns without imposing excessive cost burdens on European aluminum producers. The timing of alumina inclusion requires careful coordination with broader CBAM implementation phases.

Indirect Emissions Scope Expansion Presents Implementation Challenges

Furthermore, expanding CBAM beyond direct scope 1 emissions to include indirect scope 2 and 3 emissions would significantly increase CBAM fees and European aluminum costs. European producers face indirect carbon costs through electricity pricing that don't correlate with their actual emissions profiles. Third-country producers avoid equivalent carbon costs while CBAM lacks verification mechanisms for electricity-related emissions.

As a result, European Aluminum director general Paul Voss urged immediate CBAM implementation pause for aluminum until design flaws receive correction and competitiveness impacts undergo proper assessment. The association demands potential aluminum removal from CBAM scope if ongoing reviews demonstrate continued harm rather than protection. Alternative carbon leakage protection measures may require extension beyond 2030 if CBAM proves ineffective.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The European Aluminum association's CBAM critique highlights fundamental tensions between climate policy objectives and industrial competitiveness, demonstrating how well-intentioned carbon border mechanisms can inadvertently disadvantage domestic producers they aim to protect. The complexity of aluminum value chains, from alumina feedstock through scrap recycling, creates verification challenges that sophisticated importers can exploit, undermining CBAM's core premise of ensuring fair competition while driving global decarbonization.

EGA Aluminum Plant Investment of $4 Billion Transforms US Production Landscape

EGA Aluminum Ingot

EGA aluminum plant investment reaches $4 billion for a new primary aluminum production facility in Oklahoma, targeting 2030 startup. The massive EGA aluminum plant will produce up to 600,000 metric tonnes annually, nearly doubling US aluminum production capacity as the country produced only 670,000 tonnes in 2024 according to the US Geological Survey.

Strategic Timing Leverages US Trade Protection Measures

EGA aluminum plant development benefits from favorable US trade policies including the current 25% tariff on aluminum imports. This protective measure creates significant cost advantages for domestic production compared to foreign competitors. The timing aligns perfectly with American reshoring initiatives and critical materials supply chain security priorities.

Meanwhile, EGA expects construction to commence by late 2026, pending completion of feasibility studies and long-term power supply contract negotiations. Tax credit arrangements represent another crucial component of the project's financial structure, demonstrating the importance of government incentives for large-scale industrial investments in the current economic environment.

UAE Company Expands North American Footprint

However, Emirates Global Aluminium brings substantial international expertise to the US aluminum market through its global production portfolio. The company owns primary and secondary aluminum projects worldwide, including Minnesota-based Spectro Alloys acquired through a majority stake purchase in August 2024. This existing US presence provides operational knowledge for the Oklahoma facility development.

Therefore, EGA's investment strategy demonstrates confidence in long-term US aluminum demand growth across automotive, aerospace, and construction sectors. The 600,000-tonne annual capacity represents nearly 90% of current total US aluminum production, highlighting the transformative scale of this single project for domestic supply chains.

Presidential Announcement Signals Strategic Partnership

Furthermore, President Trump announced EGA's planned investment during his Abu Dhabi visit this week alongside $200 billion in other commercial agreements. This high-profile endorsement underscores the strategic importance of UAE-US economic cooperation in critical materials sectors. The announcement timing suggests coordinated efforts to strengthen bilateral trade relationships.

As a result, the Oklahoma facility positions EGA to capture growing North American aluminum demand while reducing US import dependence. The project's scale and timeline align with infrastructure modernization requirements and defense industry priorities that demand reliable domestic aluminum supplies for national security applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EGA's $4 billion Oklahoma investment exemplifies how international aluminum producers capitalize on US trade protection and reshoring trends to establish strategic manufacturing footholds. The project's potential to nearly double US aluminum production capacity demonstrates the scale of investment required to meaningfully impact critical materials supply chain resilience in an increasingly fragmented global trade environment.

Fagor Ederlan Expands with Majority Stake in US Aluminum Producer

Fagor Ederlan

Strategic Move into Secondary Aluminum

Spanish automotive component producer Fagor Ederlan has acquired 51pc of US-based Regen Aluminum, strengthening its presence in North America. The acquisition aligns with Fagor’s sustainability strategy while boosting service capabilities for automotive and industrial customers across the region. As part of the deal, Regen Aluminum will be renamed Fagor Regen Aluminum, reflecting its integration into the parent group.

Regen Aluminum specializes in producing recycled aluminum ingots for automotive, aerospace, and electrical applications. The company has an annual production capacity of 5mn ingots, offering a reliable supply of low-carbon materials to customers. By leveraging Regen’s expertise, Fagor Ederlan enhances its ability to deliver sustainable solutions within the global aluminum supply chain.

Secondary Aluminum’s Role in Sustainability

The production of secondary aluminum significantly reduces carbon emissions, cutting the footprint by more than 90pc compared with primary aluminum. Therefore, this acquisition positions Fagor Ederlan as a stronger player in sustainable metals, a key priority for industries navigating decarbonization goals.

Fagor already operates facilities in Europe, China, and the Americas, and this move reinforces its global strategy. While financial details were not disclosed, the deal highlights the increasing strategic importance of secondary aluminum in global supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Fagor’s acquisition of Regen Aluminum underscores a growing trend: automakers and component producers are moving upstream into recycling to secure sustainable supply. As secondary aluminum gains traction, this deal signals how European firms are positioning to meet both regulatory and market-driven decarbonization demands in North America.

Novelis to Supply Low-Carbon Aluminum to Velux in Long-Term Sustainability Deal

Novelis

Strengthening Sustainability in the Aluminum Supply Chain

Novelis has signed a long-term agreement to supply low-carbon aluminum to Danish window manufacturer Velux Group, reinforcing the push for sustainable materials in building products. The US-based aluminum roller will provide 3XXX and 5XXX series aluminum from its European facilities for Velux’s roof windows and accessories. This deal builds on a 2022 letter of intent between the two companies, marking a firm commitment to reducing emissions across their value chains.

Driving Emissions Reduction Through High-Recycled-Content Aluminum

The low-carbon aluminum supplied by Novelis will contain at least 70% recycled content, significantly lowering the carbon footprint of Velux’s products. The collaboration targets a carbon intensity of 3 kg CO2eq per kilogram of flat-rolled aluminum or below by 2030. This aligns with Velux’s goal of halving its scope 3 emissions within the same period. By replacing virgin materials with recycled aluminum, both companies are addressing the high emissions intensity typically associated with primary aluminum production.

The partnership also positions Novelis as a key supplier in Europe’s transition to circular aluminum production. Its European facilities will play a central role in ensuring consistent supply while meeting stringent sustainability benchmarks. As demand for low-carbon aluminum continues to grow in the construction sector, such agreements provide long-term stability for both producers and buyers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This Novelis–Velux agreement is a clear example of how upstream–downstream collaboration can accelerate decarbonization in aluminum-intensive industries. By embedding high-recycled-content aluminum into mainstream construction products, the partnership not only reduces emissions but also signals a broader market shift toward circular economy principles. The move could encourage similar agreements across other industrial sectors where carbon-intensive metals remain essential.

Rio Tinto Hydropower Investment of $1.2 Billion Secures Low-Carbon Aluminum Future

Rio tinto Aluminium

Rio Tinto hydropower investment reaches $1.2 billion for modernizing the Isle-Maligne hydroelectric power plant in Quebec, Canada. The massive Rio Tinto hydropower upgrade represents the mining giant's largest investment in hydroelectric assets since the 1950s, targeting sustainable aluminum production at its Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean operations through 2032.

Comprehensive Modernization Enhances Production Capacity

Rio Tinto hydropower modernization encompasses extensive infrastructure improvements across multiple facility components. The project will replace electrical and mechanical equipment throughout the Isle-Maligne plant while constructing facility extensions and new mechanical workshops. Additionally, engineers will improve water intake systems and hydraulic passages to optimize power generation efficiency.

Meanwhile, the upgrade includes critical spillway modifications enabling year-round operations during Canadian winter conditions. These enhancements ensure continuous power supply for aluminum smelting operations regardless of seasonal weather challenges. The comprehensive scope demonstrates Rio Tinto's commitment to long-term operational reliability in Quebec's challenging climate.

Strategic Investment Supports Integrated Aluminum Operations

However, the Isle-Maligne facility serves as a cornerstone for Rio Tinto's extensive Quebec aluminum infrastructure. The Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean operations include one alumina refinery, five wholly owned aluminum smelters, and six hydropower plants. These integrated facilities account for nearly half of Rio Tinto's global aluminum output, making reliable power generation essential.

Therefore, the modernization project directly impacts Rio Tinto's competitive position in North American aluminum markets. Sebastien Ross, Rio Tinto Aluminium's managing director for Atlantic operations, emphasized that the investment ensures long-term competitiveness for Canadian and American customers. The low-carbon aluminum production capability provides significant marketing advantages in environmentally conscious markets.

Decades-Long Commitment to Sustainable Metal Production

Furthermore, the $1.2 billion investment timeline extends through 2032, demonstrating Rio Tinto's long-term commitment to Quebec operations. The hydroelectric power source enables low-carbon aluminum production, aligning with global sustainability trends and regulatory requirements. This positioning strengthens Rio Tinto's market differentiation in premium aluminum segments.

As a result, the modernization project reinforces Quebec's role as a strategic aluminum production hub for North American markets. The combination of abundant hydroelectric resources, existing infrastructure, and skilled workforce creates competitive advantages that justify substantial capital investment in facility upgrades.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Rio Tinto's $1.2 billion hydropower investment exemplifies how integrated mining companies leverage renewable energy assets to maintain competitive advantages in commodity markets. The project's scale and timeline demonstrate the capital intensity required to modernize aging industrial infrastructure while positioning aluminum operations for decades of low-carbon production in increasingly sustainability-focused markets.

Constellium Hikes U.S. Flat Rolled Aluminum Prices Amid Tariff Pressures

Constellium

Price increase aligns with surging Midwest premium and looming U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports

Constellium Raises Flat Rolled Aluminum Prices by 15¢/lb

Constellium, a leading French aluminum producer, has increased the price of all flat rolled aluminum products shipped to the U.S. market. The price hike, effective immediately, amounts to a minimum of 15 cents per pound. The company did not disclose specific reasons for the adjustment and has yet to comment publicly on the decision.

This move follows a tightening North American aluminum supply landscape. Market participants suggest that uncertainty surrounding upcoming U.S. aluminum tariffs could be influencing upstream price adjustments. Constellium’s action signals a broader trend as producers seek to mitigate anticipated cost pressures.

U.S. Tariff Expectations Drive Midwest Premium Surge

The timing of Constellium’s increase coincides with a sharp rise in the Midwest premium — the delivered price of P1020 aluminum in U.S. Midwest warehouses. This benchmark has approached its highest level since June 2022, reflecting mounting concerns over supply constraints.

Market speculation centers on proposed dual 25% tariffs targeting Canadian-sourced aluminum. These tariffs, expected to be enforced in early March, could significantly impact U.S. import flows. Canada remains one of the United States' primary aluminum suppliers, making the policy shift especially disruptive for domestic buyers.

If enacted, the tariffs would apply both at a regional level and across Canada nationally, pushing buyers to seek alternative supply chains. As a result, buyers are accelerating purchases ahead of the tariff rollout — further pressuring prices.

Outlook for U.S. Aluminum Buyers Grows More Complex

Constellium’s decision to raise prices reflects broader volatility in the aluminum value chain. Without clear guidance from the company, market watchers tie the move to shifting trade dynamics and rising input costs. As flat rolled aluminum remains essential across construction, automotive, and packaging sectors, downstream manufacturers may soon face pass-through cost increases.

Industry players now closely monitor both U.S. policy announcements and global aluminum price signals. Strategic sourcing and contract adjustments will be critical as the market braces for a turbulent second quarter.

Novelis to Close Two US Aluminum Facilities Amid Strategic Portfolio Consolidation

Novelis

Novelis Shutters Richmond and Fairmont Plants, Affecting Over 250 Jobs

US-based aluminum rolling giant Novelis will close two of its aluminum facilities in the US as part of a broader portfolio consolidation. The Richmond, Virginia, plant will cease operations by May 30, while the Fairmont, West Virginia, site will shut down by June 30, according to a company spokesperson. The closures will affect more than 250 workers, as indicated in Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) filings.

The Richmond site produces aluminum rolled sheet used primarily in the building and construction sector. Meanwhile, the Fairmont plant supplies sheet and light gauge fin/foil products to both domestic and international markets. Novelis has not yet disclosed where the affected production volumes may be redirected.

Uncertainty Over Tariff Impact and Supply Chain Adjustments

While Novelis did not attribute the closures directly to tariffs, the decision follows recent trade policy changes. The US Commerce Department in March added canned beer and empty aluminum cans to the list of aluminum products now subject to a 25% tariff. This expansion of aluminum trade restrictions has stirred concerns within the US packaging and metals industries.

The company has also declined to clarify whether production will shift to other US sites or move abroad. Analysts are closely monitoring whether this consolidation signals deeper shifts in Novelis' US manufacturing footprint or its evolving supply chain strategy.

Broader Implications for the US Aluminum Sector

These closures come amid heightened scrutiny of global aluminum trade flows, particularly involving Chinese overcapacity and retaliatory trade measures. As US-based firms reevaluate production economics, facility consolidation may become more common.

The aluminum rolling industry is capital-intensive, and margin pressures from construction and packaging demand fluctuations are significant. Novelis’ action could be a harbinger of a reshuffling of North American flat-rolled capacity in response to policy, demand, and cost headwinds.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Novelis’ consolidation reflects deeper tensions in the aluminum sector, balancing plant economics, demand variability, and trade pressures. As the US doubles down on tariffs, manufacturers face growing challenges in justifying capacity retention. The next moves from Novelis—and its rivals—will likely shape the trajectory of rolled aluminum supply in North America.

Century Aluminum Sees Q2 Shipment Decline, Anticipates Q3 Recovery Boost

Century Aluminum, a leading producer of primary aluminum, reported a decrease in shipments for the second quarter, though it remains optimistic about a rebound in the third quarter. The company expects that higher aluminum prices and increased demand for domestic billet products will drive recovery, despite a drop in overall production.

In the second quarter, Century Aluminum's shipments fell to 167,908 metric tonnes (t), down from 173,649t during the same period last year. The decline was felt across all operations, including its key U.S. facilities in Sebree, Kentucky, and Mt. Holly, South Carolina. Combined, these facilities shipped 93,805t in the quarter, a decrease from 97,224t in the previous year. The company's Icelandic smelter at Grundartangi also saw a drop in primary aluminum shipments, falling to 74,103t from 76,425t a year ago.

Despite the downturn, Century Aluminum's Sebree facility operated at full capacity, producing at 100% of its 220,000t annual capacity. Mt. Holly operated at 75% of its 230,000t annual capacity, while the Grundartangi plant maintained 100% of its 320,000t annual capacity.

During the quarter, the U.S. Department of Commerce imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties on billet imports from 14 countries, which Century Aluminum believes will spur domestic demand. The company’s Sebree and Mt. Holly plants have a combined billet and slab capacity of 295,000t annually, and the decision is expected to provide significant support to these operations.

In addition to market dynamics, Century Aluminum noted that alumina prices are currently at a two-year high, driven by supply disruptions in Australia and increased regulation in China. These factors have pushed the cost of alumina, a key input for aluminum production, to account for a higher percentage of production costs than usual.

In the third quarter, Century’s Jamalco alumina refinery in Jamaica faced disruptions due to Hurricane Beryl, though operations have since stabilized at 80% of the refinery’s 1.2 million lbs/year capacity. However, damage to the main export port in Clarendon Parish forced the company to reroute shipments and declare force majeure on alumina deliveries.

Financially, Century Aluminum reported a 2.5% drop in second-quarter revenue to $561 million, with a loss of $6.7 million, a sharp contrast to the $6.6 million profit recorded in the same period last year.

Canadian October Aluminum Output Declines Year-on-Year but Remains Ahead for 2023

Canadian aluminium

Canada's molten aluminum and aluminum alloy production in October 2023 saw a slight decline compared to the same period last year. According to government data, total production reached 277,600 metric tonnes (t), down from 283,600t in October 2022. The decrease was attributed to a dip in molten aluminum production, which fell to 274,100t from 280,200t. However, aluminum alloy production increased marginally by 60t to 3,464t.

Despite the month-over-month decline, Canada's year-to-date aluminum production for 2023 stood at 2.785 million tonnes, surpassing the 2.715 million tonnes produced in the same period last year, highlighting sustained growth in overall output for the year.

Canada's Key Role in U.S. Aluminum Supply Chain

Canada continues to play a critical role in supplying aluminum to the United States. In October, Canada accounted for over two-thirds of the 354,600 tonnes of unwrought aluminum imported by the U.S., delivering approximately 241,400 tonnes, according to Census Bureau data. This underscores Canada’s significance in meeting U.S. demand for primary aluminum and aluminum alloys, which are vital to industries like automotive, aerospace, and construction.

EGA to Acquire Majority Stake in US-based Spectro Alloys, Expanding Into Secondary Aluminum Market

Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), the UAE's primary aluminum producer, is set to acquire an 80% stake in Spectro Alloys, a Minnesota-based secondary aluminum smelter. This move marks a strategic expansion into the U.S. market, bolstering EGA’s presence in a region that accounted for over a quarter of its global aluminum sales in 2023, equating to 550,000 metric tonnes.

The acquisition of Spectro Alloys will significantly enhance EGA's capabilities in the secondary aluminum sector, which involves the production of aluminum primarily from recycled scrap. This market is poised for substantial growth, with estimates suggesting that recycled aluminum will drive 60% of global aluminum supply growth by 2030, increasing to 70% between 2030 and 2040.

This latest acquisition aligns with EGA’s broader strategy to capitalize on the growing demand for sustainable aluminum. In May, EGA acquired German specialty foundry Leichtmetall, which has an annual production capacity of 30,000 tonnes. Additionally, EGA is constructing a recycling plant in the UAE, set to produce 170,000 tonnes of aluminum billets annually from both pre- and post-consumer scrap.

Spectro Alloys, with its current production capacity of 110,000 tonnes of aluminum ingots per year, is also expanding. The company began construction in March on an expansion project that will add 55,000 tonnes of billet production capacity in its first phase.

The transaction, pending regulatory approval, is expected to be finalized this quarter. Financial details of the deal have not been disclosed.

CBA Forecasts Higher Aluminum Sales Despite Production Cuts in 2025

cba

Brazilian aluminum producer CBA projects increased aluminum sales for 2025, targeting 500,000 metric tonnes despite planned production reductions in the coming months. The company anticipates stronger demand from construction, energy, and automotive sectors will drive sales growth, even as scheduled refinery maintenance temporarily constrains output capacity.

Production Challenges and Market Strategy

CBA expects aluminum production to decline significantly during the second quarter due to planned refinery maintenance, cutting output to 80,000 tonnes. However, the company projects production will recover to 90,000 tonnes by the end of the third quarter as maintenance activities conclude. Meanwhile, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize between $2,350-$2,400 per tonne throughout the forecast period.

The company's first quarter performance showed mixed results across different product segments. Primary aluminum segment sales decreased by 7% to 61,000 tonnes, down from 66,000 tonnes in the prior year, primarily due to reduced billet sales. Conversely, recycled aluminum sales surged 19% to 26,000 tonnes, compared to 20,000 tonnes in the same period last year.

Export Dynamics and Global Market Influences

CBA's export strategy has shifted significantly, with exports representing only 4% of shipments in the first quarter, down from 10% in the previous year. This reduction reflects changing market dynamics and the company's focus on domestic demand. Therefore, CBA concentrates on serving Brazilian markets while maintaining selective international presence.

Global scrap market conditions increasingly influence CBA's operational decisions and cost structure. The company considers adjusting scrap usage patterns as higher US demand, driven by tariff exemptions, has elevated scrap prices worldwide. As a result, these market dynamics require strategic planning to maintain competitive pricing while securing adequate raw material supplies.

However, CBA remains optimistic about aluminum demand prospects across key industrial sectors. The construction, energy, and automotive industries show promising growth trajectories that support the company's ambitious sales targets for 2025.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CBA's strategic approach demonstrates the complex balance between production constraints and market opportunities in the global aluminum industry. The company's ability to increase sales despite lower output reflects strong domestic demand and efficient capacity utilization, positioning CBA to capitalize on Brazil's growing industrial aluminum consumption.

Impact of Rebate Repeal on China's Aluminum Exports

China Aluminum

In November, China saw a significant spike in aluminum exports, triggered by the government's sudden cancellation of a 13% export tax rebate on aluminum fabricated products. According to data from China's General Administrator of Customs, the country exported a hefty 669,000 metric tonnes of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products. This figure marks a 37% increase compared to November last year and a 16% rise from the previous month of October.

Surge in Exports Due to Policy Change

The announcement on November 15 to end the rebate, effective December 1, propelled exporters to accelerate their shipments. This strategic move was aimed at maximizing profits before the new policy rendered some exporting activities unprofitable. The abrupt policy change prompted a rush among manufacturers and exporters to push out as much product as possible within the short window, significantly influencing trade flows.

Future Outlook: A Sharp Decline Expected

Market analysts predict a steep decline in China's aluminum exports starting December. Without the financial cushion of the export tax rebate, the cost dynamics of exporting aluminum products from China are expected to shift dramatically, potentially slowing down the country's aluminum export momentum. This anticipated drop will likely reshape global aluminum supply chains and could affect global aluminum prices.

US Aluminum Imports Decline 5% in August Amid Canada Supply Dip

Global Trade Tracker (GTT)

Imports of unwrought aluminum to the United States fell by 5% in August 2024, largely driven by a decrease in shipments from Canada, the top supplier. According to data from Global Trade Tracker (GTT), the U.S. imported 297,000 metric tonnes (t) of aluminum in August, down from 314,000t in the same month in 2023.

Canadian shipments, which make up two-thirds of U.S. aluminum imports, accounted for most of this decline. Canada’s volume slipped to 203,000t from 221,000t a year earlier, nearly matching the 17,000t drop in total U.S. aluminum imports year-on-year. The UAE, the second-largest supplier, increased its contribution to 34,000t, up from 28,000t in August 2023. In contrast, Australian and South African exports to the U.S. saw a cumulative decline of around 5,000t, contributing to the overall reduction in U.S. aluminum imports.

Australia Drops as Major Supplier

Year-to-date figures underscore a shift in the U.S. aluminum import landscape. Total U.S. aluminum imports as of August 2024 stood at 2.615 million tonnes (mn t), down from 2.843mn t during the same period in 2023. Australia’s exports to the U.S. saw a dramatic reduction, falling to 57,000t from 182,000t, relegating it from third-largest to sixth-largest supplier. Canadian imports, however, rose slightly year to date, reaching 1.840mn t, up from 1.760mn t in 2023.

South Africa’s aluminum contributions also dropped, with volumes decreasing to 82,000t from 120,000t year-to-date August. The UAE’s year-to-date exports to the U.S. fell to 295,000t, down from 397,000t in the same period last year, further reflecting shifting dynamics in the U.S. aluminum import market.

US Aluminum Supply Flat in November as Plate, Sheet and Bar Imports Surge

US Aluminum

Secondary Smelters Cut Output While New Scrap Drives Melting Growth

US aluminum supply remained virtually unchanged year-over-year in November 2024, totaling 699,000 metric tonnes (t), according to the latest US Geological Survey (USGS) data. Although overall supply edged up by just 1,000t compared to November 2023, imports of aluminum plate, sheet, and bar surged by 36%, supporting stability in the market.

The only supply category to show a year-on-year increase was plate, sheet, and bar imports, which rose by 29,000t to 110,000t. In contrast, crude aluminum metals and alloy imports declined by 14,000t to 263,000t, while domestic primary production dipped by 6,000t to 55,000t. This trend signals continued reliance on semi-fabricated imports amid weaker domestic output.

Secondary Smelters Lead Drop in Consumption and Recovery

Total aluminum consumption in November fell by 8,000t to 335,000t. Metal recovery dropped in tandem, falling 7,000t to 271,000t. Secondary smelters led the decline, reducing consumption by 5,000t to 205,000t and recovery by 4,000t to 153,000t. Independent mill fabricators also reduced consumption and recovery by 3,000t each.

However, year-to-date trends showed modest gains. Total aluminum consumption and recovery both rose by 50,000t in the first 11 months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, reaching 3.93 million tonnes and 3.21 million tonnes, respectively.

New Scrap Supports Melting Increases Despite Alloy Production Drop

Scrap utilization also shifted notably. In November, total aluminum scrap melted or consumed rose to 288,000t, up 4,000t from a year earlier. New scrap drove this increase, rising by 7,000t to 187,000t, while old scrap declined by 3,000t to 116,000t.

Cumulative data from January through November 2024 show total aluminum melted or consumed hit 3.399 million tonnes, up from 3.21 million tonnes a year earlier. New scrap increased by 159,000t, while old scrap rose by 30,000t.

Nevertheless, aluminum alloy production at secondary smelters fell. November’s total dropped by 3,400t to 91,400t. Production of 380 alloy and its variations declined 2,700t to 17,600t, while wrought alloys and extrusion billets rose slightly by 700t to 61,900t. Year-to-date alloy output fell by 43,000t, led by a 23,000t drop in 380 alloy production.

US Primary Aluminum Imports Decline in 2024

US Aluminum

Imports Drop 6%, Led by Decreases from the UAE, Australia, and South Africa

The United States saw a 6% decline in its primary aluminum imports in 2024, with a total of 3.917 million metric tonnes (mt), down from 4.158 million mt in 2023. The drop was notably driven by significant reductions in imports from key suppliers such as the UAE, Australia, and South Africa, as reported by US customs data.

Declines from Key Suppliers and Growth from Canada

Imports from the UAE, the second-largest supplier of unwrought aluminum to the US, fell by 23% to 435,200 tonnes in 2024. Australia's imports dropped sharply by 127,600 tonnes, falling to 82,400 tonnes. This decline caused Australia to drop from being the third-largest supplier to the sixth position in just one year. Additionally, imports from South Africa fell by 30,000 tonnes, reaching 131,600 tonnes in 2024.

In contrast, imports from Canada, the top supplier, rose by 91,800 tonnes, totaling 2.744 million tonnes in 2024. This increase helped offset some of the losses from other countries. Canada's share of total US aluminum imports grew to 70% in 2024, up from 64% in 2023, solidifying its dominance in the US market.

Tariff Concerns and Emerging Suppliers

The US is facing potential tariff issues, as former President Donald Trump proposed a 10% tariff on all imports from Canada. This could drive up prices for aluminum and aluminum products in the US, given Canada's role in supplying nearly a third of the US's aluminum needs.

On the other hand, imports from newer suppliers saw an uptick. India, now the seventh-largest supplier, sent 21,100 tonnes more aluminum, bringing its total to 73,000 tonnes in 2024. Argentina, a new third-largest supplier, saw a significant increase, sending 16,700 tonnes more to the US, bringing its total to 174,800 tonnes in 2024.

December 2024 imports also reflected these trends. The US imported 306,600 tonnes of unwrought aluminum, down by 14,700 tonnes compared to the previous year. Imports from Canada decreased by 20,300 tonnes, but Argentina helped balance the drop with an increase of 8,300 tonnes, reaching 30,200 tonnes in December.

Japan's Primary Aluminum Imports Rise Despite Weak Domestic Demand

Japan's Aluminum

Japan's primary aluminum imports increased by 1.9pc in 2024, reaching 1.05mn t. This rise occurred despite a decline in domestic demand from key sectors.   

Shifting Import Sources Offset Russian Decline

Australia remained Japan's largest aluminum supplier, accounting for over 28pc of imports. Brazil followed, contributing around 16pc. Notably, imports from the UAE and India surged, offsetting a significant drop in Russian shipments. The UAE saw a 14pc increase to 107,000t, while India's deliveries rose by 25pc to 103,000t. Conversely, Russian shipments plummeted by nearly 70pc to 26,000t, following Japan's import ban on certain Russian aluminum products in April 2023.   

Domestic Demand and Secondary Output Decline

Domestic aluminum product demand in Japan remained weak due to reduced activity in the building, construction, and automotive sectors. Building and construction consumption fell by 7.7pc, and automotive demand dropped by 4.1pc. Total aluminum demand decreased by 3.3pc. Japan's secondary aluminum output also declined by 4.9pc, leading to a 5.3pc decrease in aluminum scrap imports. The reduced domestic secondary output may have contributed to the increased primary aluminum imports, despite overall demand weakening.

US Aluminum Can Recycling Rate Edges Higher in 2023 but Falls Short of Pre-Pandemic Levels

Aluminum Can Recycling

The aluminum can recycling rate in the United States increased marginally in 2023, according to a joint report by the Aluminum Association (AA) and the Can Manufacturers Institute (CMI). Consumers recycled 43% of aluminum cans in 2023, up from 42% in 2022 but still below the 46% rate achieved in 2019. In total, approximately 46 billion cans were recycled, while 61 billion were discarded — a waste equivalent to $1.2 billion in value.

Aluminum Producers and Circularity Rates

US aluminum producers recycled 57% of beverage can scrap in 2023, a slight decline from nearly 59% in 2022 but an improvement from the 56% rate in 2019. The closed-loop circularity rate, which tracks the percentage of recycled beverage containers used to produce new cans, rose significantly to 97% in 2023, up from 93% in 2021. On average, new aluminum beverage cans in the US comprised 71% recycled material, including 33% used beverage can (UBC) scrap.

Industry Goals and DRS Initiatives

The CMI has set ambitious targets to achieve a total aluminum can recycling rate of 70% by 2030, 80% by 2040, and 90% by 2050. A key strategy to meet these goals involves expanding access to deposit return systems (DRS), where consumers receive refunds for returning UBCs. Currently, states with a DRS see a recycling rate of 77%, compared to just 36% in states without such systems. The report suggests that implementing nationwide DRS coverage could boost the overall recycling rate by 48 percentage points.

Despite the promising impact of DRS programs, no specific timeline for new state or nationwide implementations has been provided. However, the AA and CMI anticipate broader adoption of DRS systems as an effective solution to reduce waste and promote sustainability in aluminum can recycling.

Mitsui increases stake in Brazil’s aluminum market

Japanese trading house Mitsui has raised its share in Nippon Amazon Aluminium (NAAC) to expand its offtake of low-carbon aluminum ingots produced in Brazil, as part of its strategy to bolster its decarbonization and metals businesses. Mitsui increased its stake in NAAC, which holds a share in Brazilian aluminum refiner Aluminio Brasileiro (Albras), from 21% to 46% for an undisclosed sum. This move will elevate Mitsui's offtake of Albras' aluminum ingots to 140,000 tons per year, up from the current 80,000 tons per year.

Mitsui intends to channel the increased offtake primarily to Japanese consumers, having already delivered Albras' low-carbon aluminum ingots mainly to the Japanese market.

NAAC owns a 49% stake in Albras, which produces 450,000 tons of aluminum ingots annually. The company reduces carbon dioxide emissions in its production process by utilizing renewable energy sources.

With the growing global demand for lightweight, recyclable aluminum produced with renewable energy, Mitsui anticipates increased demand driven by the accelerating trend toward decarbonization and aluminum needs across various industries, including automotive, aerospace, construction, packaging, and electrical wiring. The company also foresees a continued supply tightness for low-carbon aluminum.

In a related move, Mitsui has invested in India-based scrap metals trader and manufacturer MTC Group, aiming to capitalize on the rising metal demand in India.

EGA Minnesota aluminum billet output begins at Spectro Alloys

EGA

Capacity, timeline, and circular aluminum strategy

EGA Minnesota aluminum billet output begins at Rosemount after the Spectro Alloys expansion. The first phase targets 55,000 tonnes. EGA Minnesota aluminum billet output strengthens regional recycled aluminum supply.

The $71 million project lifts site capacity to 165,000 tonnes annually. The expanded facility produces recycled aluminum ingots and billets. EGA owns 80% of EGA Spectro Alloys, ensuring control over operations.

Management expects full production by the first quarter of 2026. The phased ramp supports quality and customer qualifications. Customers gain reliable secondary billet for automotive and extrusion demand.

U.S. growth plans and market implications

EGA plans a $4 billion primary aluminum plant in Oklahoma. That smelter targets 600,000 tonnes per year. The U.S. footprint spans recycling and primary metal, improving supply optionality.

Recycled billet reduces carbon intensity and energy costs. As a result, buyers meet tightening sustainability requirements. Integrated sourcing should stabilize lead times and alloy consistency.

EGA Minnesota aluminum billet output complements U.S. primary ambitions. Therefore, North American buyers gain supply security and product diversity. The combined strategy supports long-term customer partnerships.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This expansion pairs circular feedstock with a coming primary smelter. Execution hinges on scrap availability, energy pricing, and extrusion demand. Watch qualification timelines and the Oklahoma financing path.

Alcoa Maintains 2024 Guidance as Third-Quarter Production and Revenue Climb

Alcoa

Alcoa Corporation, a leading U.S.-based integrated aluminum producer, upheld its 2024 production guidance for alumina and aluminum despite achieving increased quarterly production and revenue in Q3. The company continues to project aluminum production at 2.2-2.3 million metric tonnes (t) and alumina output at 9.8-10 million t, unchanged from prior estimates.

Third-Quarter Highlights

Aluminum production grew 5% year-over-year, reaching 559,000 t in Q3 2024 compared to 532,000 t in the same period last year. Aluminum shipments also rose slightly to 638,000 t from 630,000 t. Meanwhile, bauxite production declined to 9.4 million dry metric tonnes (dmt) from 10.7 million dmt a year ago. Alumina output decreased to 2.435 million t, down from 2.805 million t, with shipments falling to 2.052 million t.

Revenue and Market Dynamics

Alcoa’s Q3 revenue rose nearly 12% year-over-year to $2.9 billion, driven by higher alumina prices, which averaged $485/t compared to $354/t in Q3 2023. Aluminum prices also increased to $2,877/t, up from $2,647/t a year earlier. Third-party aluminum sales rose approximately 10% to $1.8 billion. Improved alumina pricing and lower raw material costs helped narrow segment losses to $11 million from $15 million in the same period last year.

The company posted $90 million in profits, a significant improvement from the $168 million loss reported in Q3 2023.

Strategic Developments

Alcoa raised its annual shipment forecast by 200,000 t to 12.9-13.1 million t, reflecting increased trading volumes. However, a wider spread between production and shipments emerged due to external sourcing of alumina amid the ongoing curtailment of the Kwinana refinery in Australia.

Alcoa is advancing a strategic partnership with IGNIS, a Spanish renewable energy investment firm. The agreement includes selling 25% of Alcoa's operations in Spain and a potential €175 million ($189 million) investment by Alcoa if required. The deal is contingent on government and employee support.

On 15 October, Alcoa signed a long-term supply agreement with Aluminum Bahrain (Alba) to deliver 1.5 million t of smelter-grade alumina over 10 years beginning in 2026, bolstering its position as a global alumina supplier.

Outlook

With strong alumina prices and strategic partnerships, Alcoa expects its alumina segment performance to improve by $30 million, driven by increased shipments and reduced production costs. As global aluminum demand remains steady, Alcoa’s ability to adapt through cost efficiency and partnerships positions it favorably for future growth.