Samarium Oxide Export Prices Fall as Lynas Output Pressures Chinese Offers

Lynas

Samarium oxide export prices fell as Chinese suppliers lowered offers in response to Lynas’ first samarium oxide production at its Malaysian refinery. The 99.5% samarium oxide export range dropped to $6-8/kg fob China after reaching a record $11-14.50/kg in late February.

The price decline reflected a shift in market sentiment rather than a full easing of supply constraints. Chinese export permits remain difficult to obtain, especially for shipments to Japan, but Lynas start-up introduced a credible non-China supply route for downstream users.

Samarium oxide export prices had surged earlier because of China’s tighter export control framework for medium and heavy rare earths. The emergence of Lynas output has now weakened the pricing leverage of some Chinese sellers, even though China still dominates global samarium supply.

Lynas Start-Up Adds Non-China Supply for SmCo Magnet Producers

Lynas produced first samarium oxide at its Malaysian refinery on 19 March, adding another separated heavy rare earth product to its portfolio. The company is the only commercial producer of separated samarium, terbium and dysprosium outside China.

The Australian producer is expected by market participants to raise samarium output to about 1,100 t/yr. That volume could be enough to cover a meaningful share of downstream demand in Japan, where samarium-cobalt magnet manufacturing is concentrated outside China.

Samarium-cobalt magnets are used in high-temperature and high-reliability applications across aerospace, defense, automotive, electronics and advanced industrial systems. The material’s strategic value is higher than its market size suggests because SmCo magnets are difficult to replace in demanding environments.

Lynas also plans to expand its product line to include gadolinium, yttrium and lutetium over the next two years. This would further strengthen non-China supply options for selected medium and heavy rare earth oxides.

China Export Controls Still Shape Samarium Market Risk

China continues to control more than 90% of global samarium oxide supply, with global production estimated at about 4,900t in 2025. Output is expected to rise to around 5,000t in 2026 as Lynas adds volume and Chinese production remains steady.

Beijing’s export restrictions remain the main structural risk. China has placed samarium, gadolinium, dysprosium, terbium, yttrium, lutetium and scandium under tighter export controls from 4 April, adding uncertainty for buyers outside China.

Japan is particularly exposed because it is China’s largest buyer of samarium products, accounting for more than 85% of Chinese shipments. Japanese buyers have reported difficulties securing export permits for samarium products since late October, following a sharp deterioration in China-Japan relations.

The price correction therefore does not mean the market has fully normalised. Samarium oxide export prices are now being pulled in two directions: Lynas is weakening China’s supply monopoly, while Chinese licensing controls continue to restrict trade flows into key magnet markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lynas’ samarium start-up shows how even modest non-China output can change rare earth pricing psychology. However, China’s export licensing power remains decisive, especially for Japan’s SmCo magnet industry.

Minor Metals Security Premium Becomes Cost of Supply Chain Resilience

Minor Metals

Minor metals security premium is becoming a structural cost for western buyers as China’s dominance in processing leaves supply chains exposed to disruption. Speakers at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne said consumers must pay more for non-Chinese minor metals if they want resilient supply.

The argument is no longer theoretical. Chinese export controls have reduced available supply in western markets and widened the price gap between China and Europe. Materials that once traded closely across regions now reflect very different fundamentals.

Minor metals security premium is most visible in dual-use products subject to Chinese export controls. European gallium prices are more than double Chinese export levels, while Rotterdam germanium prices are also close to twice Chinese fob values.

This premium is not only a temporary reaction to trade disruption. Speakers argued that higher western prices must persist even if export controls are eased, because alternative processing capacity outside China needs long-term economic support.

China Export Controls Break Traditional Price Links

China’s concentration in minor metals processing has created a major vulnerability for western manufacturers. Many critical materials are produced as by-products, refined in small volumes and traded through narrow supply chains.

That structure makes the market highly sensitive to policy changes. When China restricts exports, buyers in Europe and the US cannot easily replace supply because there are few alternative processors with qualified material.

The result is a geographic price split. European warehouse prices once tracked Chinese markets closely, but that relationship no longer reflects real availability outside China. Chinese prices now represent domestic conditions, while western prices reflect scarcity, logistics risk and origin security.

Gallium and germanium show this most clearly. Both metals are essential for semiconductors, optics, power electronics, defence systems, satellite communications and advanced manufacturing. Both are also heavily exposed to Chinese processing and export licensing.

For western buyers, the question is no longer whether Chinese prices look cheaper. The real question is whether material can be accessed, shipped, qualified and used without exposing factories to sudden supply interruptions.

That changes procurement behaviour. Buyers are increasingly willing to pay a security premium for material with reliable origin, clearer documentation and lower exposure to export restrictions.

The same logic is spreading to other by-product metals. Indium, bismuth and antimony are gaining strategic attention because they support electronics, flame retardants, solders, alloys, photovoltaics, semiconductors and defence-related applications.

These metals are often small in volume but large in industrial consequence. A missing input can stop production even if the dollar value of the metal is tiny compared with the final product.

This is why western buyers are treating minor metals differently from ordinary commodities. They are paying for continuity, not only material.

Supply Security Needs Processing Capacity and Long-Term Demand

Minor metals security premium must support investment, not only emergency buying. If higher prices disappear as soon as immediate disruption fades, new processing projects outside China will struggle to survive.

This is the key industrial challenge. Building non-Chinese supply requires refining capacity, technical know-how, environmental permitting, qualified output and customer commitments. These cannot be created quickly during a crisis.

A short-term price spike can help existing suppliers, but it does not guarantee new capacity. Investors need confidence that buyers will continue paying for secure supply after the market stabilises.

This is where security premiums differ from green premiums. Green premiums have often been debated because buyers could delay paying more for lower-carbon materials. But critical materials supply disruption leaves fewer choices.

If rare earths, gallium, germanium or antimony are unavailable, manufacturers may face production stoppages. In that situation, the premium becomes part of operating cost rather than a voluntary sustainability expense.

Governments can help bridge this gap through stockpiles, offtake support, price floors, procurement rules and financing tools. But industry also needs to accept that resilient supply chains cost more than the lowest-price global model.

For miners, by-product metals can improve project economics. Recovering indium, bismuth, antimony, gallium or germanium can add revenue streams to larger operations and strengthen the business case for complex ore bodies.

For refiners, sustained premiums can justify investment in separation and purification capacity. For manufacturers, long-term contracts can reduce the risk of sudden shortages and forced spot-market buying.

The larger strategic point is clear. Western supply chains cannot become more secure while continuing to benchmark only against Chinese domestic prices. Security, traceability and supply reliability require a different pricing model.

Minor metals security premium therefore represents a shift in how critical materials are valued. Buyers are beginning to price the risk of disruption, not just the cost of production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The security premium for minor metals is the market’s way of pricing geopolitical risk into industrial supply. Western buyers cannot build resilient supply chains while demanding Chinese-cost material from non-Chinese sources.

Europe Rare Earth Prices Hold Steady as China’s NdPr Market Softens

Rare Earth mining

Europe rare earth prices held broadly steady this week as tight heavy rare earth availability offset weakness in China’s neodymium and praseodymium market. Delivered European prices for light rare earths showed little movement, while prompt supply of restricted heavy rare earths remained extremely limited.

Europe rare earth prices are now being shaped by two different market structures. Light rare earths are tracking weaker Chinese sentiment more closely, but European demand remains modest and supply is sufficient. Heavy rare earths are trading under export-control pressure, with buyers outside China paying steep premiums for prompt material.

Europe rare earth prices therefore show a widening split between ordinary demand softness and strategic scarcity. The market is not moving as one rare earth complex. It is separating by licensing access, material origin, availability and end-use urgency.

Light Rare Earths Stay Flat Despite Chinese Market Drop

European delivered neodymium oxide prices remained steady at $115-130/kg cif Europe. Neodymium metal also held at $145-160/kg cif.

Praseodymium oxide stayed unchanged at $115-130/kg cif Europe, while praseodymium-neodymium oxide held at $110-115/kg cif. The stability came despite a sharp decline in China’s NdPr complex.

Chinese traders have been destocking ahead of the 1-5 May Labour Day holiday, expecting weaker domestic end-user demand. Several oxide producers suspended spot offers to assess market direction.

European prices did not follow the Chinese decline because regional spot demand remains limited. Delivered European prices are already below Chinese values on average, supported by sufficient supply from multiple sources.

Cerium oxide moved slightly higher, with the top end of the range rising to $2.55/kg cif Europe. Demand is being supported by increased use of cerium-based rare earth magnets and higher freight costs for material circulating outside China.

This light rare earth stability suggests that Europe is not facing immediate NdPr scarcity. However, buyers remain cautious because Chinese price movements still influence sentiment and replacement-cost expectations.

Heavy Rare Earths Remain Tight Under Export Controls

Heavy rare earth availability remains the main pressure point in Europe. Delivered prices for dysprosium oxide were unchanged at $1,000-1,200/kg cif Europe, while terbium oxide held at $3,800-4,500/kg cif.

Spot liquidity has been thin since the start of the year. Prompt availability outside China remains very tight, especially for buyers without export licences.

China’s export controls continue to reshape heavy rare earth pricing. End-users that cannot access licensed Chinese supply are still willing to pay steep premiums to secure material for magnets, defence systems, electronics and advanced manufacturing.

Japanese buying interest has added more pressure since Japan became subject to stricter export controls in January. This has increased competition for limited non-China prompt supply.

The same pattern is visible in gadolinium and yttrium. Gadolinium oxide remained at $700-1,200/kg cif Europe, while yttrium oxide held at $800-1,200/kg cif Europe.

These markets are no longer priced only by Chinese domestic fundamentals. They are being priced by export-control access, available inventories and the cost of avoiding production disruption.

For European buyers, the practical issue is security of supply. Even if Chinese domestic prices soften, restricted material outside China can remain expensive because availability is controlled by licensing and logistics.

The result is a rare earth market where light rare earths may soften with Chinese demand, while heavy rare earths retain a strategic premium. That premium is likely to persist as long as export controls limit access to dysprosium, terbium, gadolinium and yttrium.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s rare earth market is becoming increasingly divided between price-led light rare earths and security-led heavy rare earths. China’s NdPr weakness matters, but export-control pressure on dysprosium, terbium, gadolinium and yttrium is now the stronger strategic signal.

China Tungsten Exports Resume in Europe with Limited Volumes

China Tungsten

China tungsten exports restarted in European markets for the first time since February stoppages, though shipment volumes remain constrained at maximum 1 tonne per delivery. The resumption of China tungsten exports follows months of supply disruption caused by Chinese export controls announced February 4th, creating acute shortages for US and European buyers dependent on tungsten ingots for defense and industrial applications.

Small-Scale Shipments Signal Cautious Market Re-entry

China tungsten exports currently originate primarily from smaller state-owned manufacturers rather than major producers. Market sources report receiving new shipments in Rotterdam while additional material remains in transit to European destinations. However, volumes stay extremely limited compared to pre-control periods, reflecting continued regulatory uncertainty and cautious export policies from Chinese suppliers.

Meanwhile, delivery timelines extend significantly with current orders potentially shipping in July for immediate purchases. Traders quote current prices at $56 per kilogram on a cost-insurance-freight basis, representing substantial increases from historical levels. The extended lead times demonstrate supply chain disruptions that persist despite the resumption of limited export activities.

Export Controls Create Ongoing Market Uncertainty

However, tungsten metal products face complex regulatory environments despite not appearing on initial dual-use licensing lists. While other tungsten products required explicit export licenses from February 4th, tungsten ingots experienced de facto export halts through administrative restrictions. This regulatory ambiguity creates persistent uncertainty for international buyers seeking reliable supply sources.

Therefore, US and European buyers continue struggling to secure sufficient alternative tungsten sources outside Chinese production. The global tungsten market's dependence on Chinese suppliers becomes evident through months of supply shortages following export control implementation. Alternative sourcing efforts prove inadequate for meeting industrial demand requirements across defense and manufacturing sectors.

Tight European Market Maintains Price Pressure

Furthermore, European tungsten markets remain extremely tight with minimal warehouse inventory available for immediate delivery. Limited stock levels mean small resumptions in Chinese exports cannot immediately relieve price pressures or supply constraints. Market participants describe conditions as "total lottery" scenarios where securing tungsten ingots depends largely on timing and supplier relationships.

As a result, prompt tungsten prices maintain elevated levels despite the resumption of small-scale Chinese shipments. The constrained supply environment supports premium pricing while buyers compete for limited available material. Industrial consumers face continued procurement challenges that affect production planning and cost structures across tungsten-dependent manufacturing sectors.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China's limited tungsten export resumption highlights the persistent vulnerability of global supply chains dependent on single-source suppliers for critical materials, particularly when geopolitical tensions influence trade policies. The constrained volumes and regulatory uncertainty demonstrate how export controls can fundamentally reshape commodity markets, forcing Western buyers to reassess supply security strategies for defense-critical materials like tungsten.

EU Tungsten Prices Surge Amid Tight Supply and China Export Controls

EU Tungsten Scrap

Export Restrictions and Low Inventories Drive Up Tungsten Prices in Europe

European tungsten prices have surged to multi-year highs due to restricted supply, dwindling inventories, and newly imposed Chinese export controls. The Focus Keyphrase "EU tungsten prices" has gained attention from global buyers navigating a market reshaped by policy shifts and geopolitical uncertainty.

European tungsten concentrate prices are now $310–320/dmtu in Rotterdam warehouses, up from $260–270/dmtu in early January — the highest level since the index’s launch in 2017. This price rally stems from low inventories and tightening global supply, particularly as China has lowered its tungsten mining quota and extended export licensing to include more products.

Western Buyers Lock in Long-Term Contracts Amid Risk

Western buyers are responding to this supply disruption by securing multi-year offtake deals. According to Australia-based producer EQ Resources, these contracts often include large prepayments to hedge against delays in Chinese export licence approvals.

Meanwhile, the defense sector's growing demand for tungsten is driving further contract activity. Almonty Industries, for instance, has signed a multi-year agreement to supply tungsten oxide to U.S.-based TPW for military applications. These agreements underscore the metal's strategic importance and the urgency among buyers to secure long-term supply.

However, some traders question how long the upward momentum can last. While markets like Vietnam remain willing to pay premium prices, others find current rates difficult to accept.

APT Prices Rise as Chinese Controls Disrupt Market

The price of ammonium paratungstate (APT), a key tungsten intermediate, has also spiked. European APT prices now range between $395–405/dmtu, a 20% increase since January and the highest since 2013. China’s restrictions have further worsened European availability, leading to extremely low warehouse stock levels.

As a workaround, some buyers have started importing ammonium tungstate (ATM), which is not currently subject to export controls. Although ATM cannot be converted into oxide, it is usable in limited applications. Industry sources caution that ATM could be restricted if the trade environment worsens.

Adding to the cost pressure, concentrate payables have jumped to 80–85% of APT price, up from the typical 70%, reflecting the sharp increase in feedstock costs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EU tungsten prices are being reshaped not just by market forces, but by geopolitics. With China tightening control over its critical minerals, Western buyers are being pushed into a new era of strategic procurement. As APT and concentrate prices continue to climb, Europe’s reliance on Chinese tungsten remains a vulnerability — one that may prompt diversification strategies and renewed investment in local supply chains.

South32 Manganese Ore Export Prices Fall as China Demand Weakens

South32 Manganese Ore

South32 manganese ore export prices to China have fallen for June shipments as weak alloy demand, ample port inventories and cautious buying pressure the import market. The Australian diversified metals producer lowered offers for both Australian and South African manganese ore, according to Chinese importers.

South32 manganese ore export prices for Australian 42% lumpy ore fell to $5.40/mtu cif China for June delivery. This was down by $0.50/mtu from May.

South32 also reduced its offer for South African 37% manganese ore to $5/mtu cif China. This was down by $0.40/mtu from the previous month.

South32 manganese ore export prices are an important signal for the wider manganese chain because China remains the largest global buyer of seaborne ore. When Chinese alloy plants slow purchases, overseas miners often need to adjust export offers to maintain sales momentum.

Chinese Alloy Weakness Cuts Restocking Appetite

Chinese importers have shown limited interest in restocking manganese ore because inventories remain sufficient and alloy prices are weakening. This has reduced spot buying urgency before the Labour Day holiday on 1-5 May.

Many alloy plants postponed ore feedstock purchases while waiting for clearer market direction after the holiday. This cautious behaviour has weakened the negotiating position of overseas ore suppliers.

The pressure is also visible in Chinese port prices. Australian 44-46% lumpy manganese ore fell to 43-47 yuan/mtu delivery ex quay on 28 April, down from 47-50 yuan/mtu on 31 March.

The decline shows that domestic buyers are not only resisting new import offers. They are also repricing available port material lower as downstream demand fails to improve.

Manganese ore demand is closely linked to ferro-manganese and silico-manganese production. These alloys are used in steelmaking, where manganese improves strength, deoxidation and performance.

When steel consumption slows, alloy plants reduce purchasing activity. This immediately affects ore demand because manganese alloy producers are the main consumers of imported ore.

Steel Demand Remains the Main Constraint

The deeper issue is weak steel demand in China. Slower economic growth and subdued construction activity have limited recovery in steel consumption, leaving alloy producers cautious about raw material buying.

Without a stronger steel recovery, manganese alloy prices are likely to remain under pressure. This limits the ability of alloy plants to pay higher ore prices, even when miners try to defend margins.

South32’s price cut also reflects wider seaborne competition. Mining firms outside China need to respond when Chinese buyers have enough stock and are unwilling to chase cargoes.

Australian high-grade lumpy ore usually commands stronger interest because of its quality and processing value. However, even higher-grade material can weaken when alloy margins are poor and port inventories are sufficient.

South African ore also remains exposed to Chinese demand swings. Lower-grade material can face sharper price pressure when buyers reduce procurement and focus only on immediate needs.

For the manganese market, the June price cut suggests that miners are prioritising volume discipline and customer access over holding elevated offers. The next price direction will depend on whether Chinese alloy plants return after the holiday with real restocking demand.

If steel demand remains weak, manganese ore prices could face further downside pressure. If alloy prices stabilise and inventories fall, importers may resume buying, but recovery is likely to be gradual.

The Metalnomist Commentary

South32’s price cut shows that the manganese market is being driven by demand absorption, not supply shortage. Until Chinese steel and alloy demand improves, seaborne manganese ore suppliers will remain exposed to cautious restocking and lower port prices.

Tungsten Market Faces Disruptions as China Imposes Export Controls on APT

Ammonium Paratungstate

The recent announcement by China to place ammonium para-tungstate (APT) and tungsten concentrate under strict export controls has sparked significant price increases in the European market. As buyers scramble to secure material, European consumers are seeking to build "safety stocks" to ensure supply continuity amid the uncertainty surrounding these export restrictions.

China's Export Controls Create Supply Chain Concerns

China's decision to add APT and tungsten concentrate to its list of dual-use items has left global tungsten buyers on edge. With this new regulation, Chinese suppliers have hesitated to provide fresh price quotes, waiting for clearer instructions and permits from the Chinese government. This delay in pricing is expected to persist for around 45 days, further exacerbating concerns in the tungsten market.

As the export controls limit available material, European and Japanese markets are expected to feel the greatest impact. While U.S. buyers primarily rely on tungsten scrap for their needs, prices for this resource are also expected to rise due to the overall global tightness in tungsten supply. European buyers are particularly active in sourcing material outside of China, not due to increased demand, but to secure stock ahead of anticipated supply disruptions.

Verification of End-Use Creates Delays and Bottlenecks

The new export regulations require Chinese exporters to notify authorities of the final end-user and application of the tungsten products, adding another layer of complexity to the supply chain. The verification process, which ensures that the material isn't being used for military purposes, is expected to create significant delays. With approximately 70% of Japan's tungsten imports coming from China, these controls are likely to disrupt the Japanese market the most. The European Union also faces similar challenges, with imports from China making up a substantial portion of its tungstate needs.

Impact on Global Markets and Price Forecasts

While the Chinese export restrictions are expected to drive prices up, particularly in Europe and Japan, the full impact remains uncertain. Tungsten is crucial for a variety of industrial applications, with APT serving as the intermediate material for producing tungsten oxides and powders. However, with limited available stock and supply chain disruptions, some market participants worry that the price increases could become more drastic.

The situation has drawn comparisons to China's antimony export delays, which have significantly disrupted the European market and caused prices to surge. The tungsten market may face similar challenges as supply becomes even more constrained, with both APT and tungsten concentrate prices continuing to climb.

Conclusion: A Fragile Market with Rising Prices

As the global tungsten market grapples with China's export controls, prices for APT and tungsten concentrates are likely to remain volatile. The duration and enforcement of these new controls will determine the severity of the price hikes, and the market will need time to adjust to the changing dynamics. With Europe and Japan facing the most significant challenges, the tungsten supply chain will need to adapt to avoid further disruption.

China EU Dual-Use Export Controls Raise Rare Earth Supply Risk for Europe

China EU

China EU dual-use export controls have escalated after Beijing added seven military-related European entities to its export control list. The move signals a sharper trade dispute between China and the EU and could increase uncertainty around rare earths and critical metals supply to Europe.

China EU dual-use export controls prohibit domestic exporters from supplying listed entities with controlled dual-use goods, technologies and services. Overseas organisations and individuals are also barred from transferring Chinese-origin dual-use items to those entities.

China EU dual-use export controls are significant because rare earths, tungsten, antimony, germanium and gallium have all gained stronger military and strategic relevance. Many of these materials are already covered by China’s dual-use export control framework.

The targeted entities include defence, aerospace and military-linked companies in Europe. Beijing said the companies had engaged in arms sales to Taiwan or had links with Taiwan-related activity.

Rare Earths and Critical Metals Become Trade Policy Tools

China’s decision marks the first time Beijing has imposed dual-use export restrictions specifically targeting EU entities. It shows that critical materials policy is increasingly being used as a geopolitical instrument.

The move follows growing friction between China and the EU, including disputes around cybersecurity rules and alleged discriminatory treatment of Chinese companies. Beijing has warned that it could take broader countermeasures if Chinese firms continue to face restrictions.

This matters for Europe because the region remains a major buyer of Chinese rare earths and critical minerals. The Netherlands, Italy, France and Spain all received rare earth shipments from China in the first quarter.

Rare earths are essential for permanent magnets, electric motors, wind turbines, robotics, defence systems, aerospace components and precision electronics. Heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium are especially important for high-performance magnets used in demanding operating environments.

Other controlled critical metals also carry strategic weight. Tungsten is used in hard metals, defence systems and high-temperature applications. Antimony supports flame retardants, ammunition and alloys. Germanium and gallium are critical for semiconductors, optics, satellites and power electronics.

China’s use of export controls has become more systematic. Beijing has already tightened critical minerals exports to Japan this year, which disrupted shipments of dysprosium and terbium and forced buyers to seek alternative supply.

Europe Faces Higher Security Premiums for Heavy Rare Earths

Europe’s immediate risk is not a full loss of Chinese supply. The more likely impact is higher compliance risk, licensing uncertainty and greater pressure on buyers that need controlled materials for defence, aerospace and advanced manufacturing.

This could widen the security premium for non-China rare earths and minor metals. Buyers without reliable export licences may need to pay more for material available in the Atlantic market.

Heavy rare earth prices outside China have already surged because of tight availability and stronger Japanese buying. Yttrium oxide prices in Europe have climbed sharply this year, reflecting the scarcity of prompt non-China supply.

If EU-China tensions continue, European buyers may accelerate efforts to diversify supply. That could benefit projects in Australia, Brazil, Estonia, the US and other jurisdictions trying to build rare earth separation, metal-making and magnet capacity outside China.

However, diversification will not be quick. Rare earth supply chains require mining, separation, refining, metal conversion, alloying and magnet manufacturing. Each stage needs qualification, capital and technical expertise.

For European manufacturers, the policy signal is clear. Critical metals procurement can no longer rely only on price and delivery time. Buyers must now evaluate origin risk, licensing exposure, dual-use classification and strategic inventory needs.

The broader market implication is that China’s critical minerals controls are becoming a routine part of trade policy. Europe must now treat rare earths and minor metals as supply-chain security issues, not just raw material inputs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s latest export control move shows that rare earths and minor metals are becoming geopolitical leverage points. Europe’s challenge is no longer just finding alternative supply, but building a complete industrial chain that can survive licensing shocks.

Acute Tungsten Shortage Drives Record Prices Across Global Supply Chains

Tungsten

The acute tungsten shortage is pushing global tungsten prices to record highs in 2026. Supply remains extremely tight across concentrate, APT, and downstream products. Low inventories and restricted Chinese export licences are worsening the squeeze. As a result, the acute tungsten shortage is becoming one of the most severe specialty metals disruptions in the market.

The current problem starts at the raw material level. Global production of tungsten concentrates has declined, while available western supply remains far below demand. Market participants now describe an estimated shortfall of around 13,000t of contained tungsten in the western market. Therefore, the acute tungsten shortage is no longer a regional issue. It is a structural supply crisis.

Pricing shows how quickly the market has tightened. Tungsten concentrate prices in Rotterdam surged to record levels in late January. European APT prices also climbed sharply as concentrate costs and export restrictions combined. Consequently, global tungsten prices are rising across the entire value chain.

Chinese Supply Constraints Are Tightening the Tungsten Concentrate Shortage

Chinese supply constraints remain the core driver of the tungsten concentrate shortage. China produces about 80pc of global tungsten supply and still dominates export availability. However, domestic ore shortages have intensified after mine shutdowns and weak new project development. Meanwhile, China’s 2025 mining quota fell from the previous year.

Trade data reinforces that tightening pattern. Chinese exports of tungsten concentrate declined sharply in 2025, while Chinese imports rose strongly. That means even China is pulling in more raw material to support its own processing base. As a result, less material is reaching overseas buyers.

APT export licences have added another bottleneck. Western customers may secure limited licences, but actual shipment still depends on concentrate availability. That creates a second layer of uncertainty on top of already weak feedstock supply. Therefore, the tungsten concentrate shortage is now feeding directly into delayed APT deliveries and higher prices.

Consumers are also paying much more for feedstock. Payables for concentrate have risen sharply as buyers compete for scarce supply. That shift reflects a market where sellers hold stronger leverage and buyers have fewer alternatives. Consequently, procurement conditions are becoming more difficult even for experienced consumers.

Japan and Europe Face Growing Pressure as Recycling Lags Demand

Japan and Europe are now feeling the full pressure of the acute tungsten shortage. Europe faces critically tight APT availability because it depends heavily on Chinese supply and licensing. Japan faces similar pressure after new Chinese restrictions on dual-use exports added more uncertainty. Therefore, both regions are competing harder for a smaller pool of material.

Japan’s position is especially sensitive. The country has no domestic tungsten mining base and depends heavily on imported tungsten products. Buyers are now seeking tungsten-containing scrap, but that market is also tight. As a result, recycling cannot yet solve the immediate supply problem.

Recycling capacity may grow, but it will take time. Japan is expanding tungsten recycling capability in response to lower Chinese exports. However, significant new output will not arrive quickly. Meanwhile, downstream consumers still need metal today, not years from now.

This means the market will likely remain strained for some time. Concentrate shortages, limited export licences, and weak scrap availability are all reinforcing one another. Therefore, the acute tungsten shortage is likely to keep global tungsten prices elevated unless primary supply improves materially.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tungsten is now showing how vulnerable specialty metal supply chains become when one country dominates both mining and exports. This market is not just tight. It is structurally exposed. Unless new western supply or faster recycling emerges, tungsten buyers may face prolonged price pressure and continued allocation risk.

Japan tungsten recycling expansion accelerates after China export controls

the International Tungsten Industry Association(ITIA)

Japan tungsten recycling expansion is now central to the country’s response to China’s new export controls. Japan has no domestic tungsten mines and historically relied on Chinese APT and cemented carbide imports. As a result, Japan tungsten recycling expansion is becoming the primary lever to secure supply and stabilise its hard-metal value chain. Japan tungsten recycling expansion also reflects a broader shift toward circularity and strategic raw material resilience.

Scrap flows highlight the scale of Japan tungsten recycling expansion

Japan is ramping tungsten scrap utilisation to compensate for lower Chinese export volumes. The country generates 3,500–4,000t of tungsten scrap annually, with about half recycled domestically and half exported. However, Japan also imports 500–1,000t of scrap each year, underscoring its dependence on global recycling networks.

China’s export controls on APT and cemented carbide have sharply reduced shipments into Japan. No other producing country has fully offset this loss, creating a structural shortfall in virgin tungsten materials. Therefore, Japanese industry is pushing harder to capture and process scrap from cutting tools and hard-metal components.

Scrap exports to overseas processors have also surged as part of this adjustment. From April to June, Japan exported 865t of tungsten scrap, double the previous quarter. Much of this material goes to the US, Germany and Taiwan for conversion into tungsten carbide powder. Meanwhile, limited domestic processing capacity means Japan must then reimport refined powders or finished tools.

Japan lacks tungsten recycling capacity comparable to leading manufacturing countries such as Germany. Market participants agree that higher prices and strong scrap demand create a window to invest in domestic plants. Companies like Mitsubishi Materials and Sumitomo Group are intensifying recycling efforts, but significant capacity additions will take time to materialise.

Strategic impact of Japan tungsten recycling expansion on supply security

Japan tungsten recycling expansion carries important strategic implications beyond near-term supply balancing. By strengthening domestic scrap processing, Japan can reduce exposure to Chinese export policies over the medium term. At the same time, enhanced recycling supports national goals on circular economy and lower carbon metal supply.

Industry leaders emphasise that Japan still needs a framework for constructive cooperation with China. However, they also stress that recycling will play a growing role in any long-term procurement strategy. As a result, Japan tungsten recycling expansion is viewed as both a defensive and forward-looking move. It protects critical industries today while aligning with future ESG requirements.

Higher tungsten prices and constrained primary supply should continue to incentivise investment in collection, sorting and processing infrastructure. Tool manufacturers and end-users will likely see tighter take-back schemes and more advanced recycling logistics. In five to ten years, today’s disruption may be remembered as the catalyst that forced Japan to build a more robust, diversified tungsten procurement system.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Japan’s response to China’s tungsten export controls shows how quickly advanced manufacturing economies can pivot toward recycling when supply shocks hit. If current investment momentum holds, Japan could evolve from a largely import-dependent buyer into a more balanced scrap-and-powder hub. Market participants should watch where new recycling plants are sited and how quickly domestic processing capacity closes the gap with Germany and other leaders.

European Bi, In Price Rallies Stall on Profit-Taking

The surge in European bismuth and indium prices has decelerated as sellers capitalize on the substantial gains made in the second quarter, prompting slight declines in the past two weeks. Initially, speculation and constrained feedstock availability in China drove a sharp rise in prices, leading European sellers to elevate their offers in line with increasing replacement costs.

Bismuth prices in Europe saw a remarkable 77% increase from April to June but experienced a modest dip in early July due to profit-taking activities. Traders, seeking to benefit from the recent price rally, sold long-held low-cost materials at discounted rates compared to the higher-cost replacement materials sourced from China.

Similarly, indium prices, which reached a nine-year peak of $373-413/kg in June, have slightly receded to $373-401/kg. This adjustment followed a downturn in the Chinese domestic market, prompting European sellers to lower their offers and secure profits from the 35% price rise seen in the second quarter.

Despite tepid demand from European consumers, both metals experienced rapid price hikes in the second quarter, driven by elevated replacement costs from China. Chinese export prices for bismuth surged by 63% from April to June, remaining stable at $6.14-6.26/lb fob. Environmental inspections in China, which restricted the supply of bismuth concentrates from lead and zinc refineries, and speculative trading further exacerbated this price rise.

Indium supply constraints from China's Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi provinces due to environmental checks, coupled with trading activities on the Zhonglianjin platform, propelled prices upward. Although Chinese export prices for indium peaked at $371-391/kg fob in mid-May, they declined to $359-374/kg through June as trading activity slowed.

Speculation Fuels Minor Metal Price Increases

The swift price increases for bismuth and indium have spurred speculation about potential hikes in other minor metals such as selenium, tellurium, and germanium, whose prices are already trending upward.

Selenium prices in Europe were assessed at $10.40-13.10/lb duty unpaid Rotterdam, up from $10.30-12.40/lb at the end of June, marking a 7% rise in the second quarter driven by higher replacement costs from China and consistent demand.

Tellurium prices rose by 13% in June, last assessed at $91-99/kg duty unpaid Rotterdam, reflecting tight supply in European warehouses and rising prices in China.

Germanium metal prices hit a nine-year high of $1,810-2,010/kg cif main airport on July 2, up from $1,620-1,920/kg at the start of June, following an increase in Chinese export prices. The average germanium price in the first half of this year was $1,607/kg, significantly higher than the 10-year average of $1,324/kg, due to export controls limiting supply outside China.

Spot demand for most minor metals in Europe remains sluggish and is expected to stay low over the summer. However, market participants are closely monitoring China for indications of which minor metals might experience the next price spike, given Europe's heavy reliance on Chinese exports for many of these metals.

China Titanium Sponge Exports Rise in March as Asian Buyers Support Demand

China Titanium Sponge

China titanium sponge exports rose year on year in March, supported by stronger buying interest from South Korea, India, Vietnam and Slovenia. Chinese customs data showed exports reached 453t during the month, up 8.6% from 417t a year earlier.

China titanium sponge exports still declined by 7.4% from February’s 489t, showing that overseas buying remained selective. Some buyers were not under immediate pressure to purchase Chinese material because spot supply was sufficient.

China titanium sponge exports totalled 1,535t in January-March, down 5.7% from a year earlier. The decline reflected weaker buying from major consumers including Japan, South Korea and the US.

The data show a titanium sponge export market that is recovering unevenly. Asian demand helped March shipments, but inventory drawdowns, delayed purchasing and weaker aerospace-linked orders continued to limit broader export momentum.

Japan, South Korea and US Demand Weaken in First Quarter

Japan remained the largest destination for Chinese titanium sponge in January-March, receiving 347t. However, shipments fell by 37% from 548t a year earlier.

The decline was mainly caused by delayed purchasing from a major Japanese consumer. Purchases are expected to resume in May, which could support later-quarter export flows.

South Korean imports from China also fell. Shipments dropped by 33% to 172t as some buyers slowed procurement after failing to secure downstream aerospace original equipment manufacturer orders.

This matters because aerospace demand remains one of the most important drivers of higher-grade titanium sponge consumption. When downstream aerospace orders are delayed, sponge buyers often reduce spot intake and work through inventories.

US demand was almost absent in the first quarter. China exported only 0.2t of titanium sponge to the US, down 99.8% from a year earlier, as US consumers continued drawing down inventories.

The US result highlights the effect of inventory cycles and trade uncertainty. Even when Chinese material remains available, buyers may delay purchases if they have sufficient stock or face qualification, tariff and policy risk.

Export Prices Track Higher Domestic Sponge Market

Chinese 99.7% grade titanium sponge export prices averaged $6.70/kg fob China in January-March. This was up 1.5% from $6.60/kg a year earlier.

The increase tracked higher domestic titanium sponge prices. Export pricing therefore reflected cost support in China rather than a broad surge in overseas demand.

The modest price rise also shows that the market remains balanced. Chinese suppliers have support from domestic costs, but overseas buyers are still cautious and selective.

For global titanium supply chains, the key issue is not only volume. The quality, qualification status and end-use requirements of sponge matter, especially for aerospace and high-performance industrial applications.

China’s titanium sponge exports remain important for regional buyers in Asia and Europe. However, demand from aerospace-linked customers will depend on downstream order visibility, inventory levels and qualification confidence.

If Japanese buying resumes in May and South Korean aerospace-related demand improves, Chinese exports could recover further. But weak US flows suggest that trade and inventory factors will continue to limit upside in some markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China titanium sponge exports show a market supported by regional buying but still constrained by aerospace order timing and inventory drawdowns. The next signal will come from whether Japanese and South Korean buyers return with stronger qualified-material demand in the second quarter.

Europe Yttrium Oxide Prices Surge on China Export Controls

Yttrium Oxide

Europe yttrium oxide prices have surged as export controls from China choke heavy rare earth supply and tighten available spot units. Europe yttrium oxide prices jumped again this week, with buyers forced to pay sharply higher levels for scarce cargoes into the Atlantic market. However, prices for other rare earth products in Europe moved only slightly, reflecting more balanced conditions in the neodymium and praseodymium complex. Europe yttrium oxide prices now highlight how vulnerable regional supply chains remain to policy shifts in China’s rare earth sector.

Yttrium Shortage Exposes Heavy Rare Earth Risk

The latest rally in Europe yttrium oxide prices stems from an acute supply shortage outside China as export licences remain constrained. Assessments for 99.999pc yttrium oxide rose sharply to $150-200/kg cif Europe, up strongly from last week’s range. Some market participants report even higher Europe yttrium oxide prices above $200/kg in isolated critical-need spot deals, although volumes are limited. However, overall spot liquidity is thin as many enquiries for yttrium oxide and yttrium metal go unfilled because suppliers cannot secure material. Traders continue to struggle with Chinese export licences for restricted heavy rare earth products, with applications facing close scrutiny and long delays. In the absence of fresh stock, European buyers must rely on existing inventories, making a near-term correction in yttrium prices unlikely. Other heavy rare earths, including dysprosium and terbium oxides, remain price-stable but still trade at elevated levels by historical standards.

Light and Heavy Rare Earths Diverge Across Europe

Light rare earths tell a different story, with sentiment turning slightly more bearish in China on supply and demand shifts. Neodymium and praseodymium prices softened as Chinese magnet plants slowed restocking and ore availability increased under the second 2025 mining quota. This weaker tone has filtered into Europe, trimming delivered prices for certain neodymium and praseodymium oxide and metal products. Even so, spreads between oxide and metal remain steady, reflecting solid but not overheated demand from key magnet applications. Erbium oxide prices in Europe held steady but sit well above equivalent Chinese levels amid ongoing export and customs frictions. Fresh erbium shipments continue to face port delays in China as authorities check impurities and trace restricted heavy rare earths. These checks add friction to international trade flows and reinforce the premium that European buyers must pay for secure supply. As a result, buyers and traders are reassessing sourcing strategies, inventory policies and long-term contracts to manage future rare earth disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s yttrium spike is a textbook example of how targeted export controls can weaponise narrow heavy rare earth supply chains. For end-users, the lesson is clear: diversify heavy rare earth sourcing, lock in strategic contracts and build working inventories before the next policy shock. For project developers, today’s prices strengthen the case for non-Chinese heavy rare earth capacity, but investors will demand durable policy visibility and long-term demand signals.

US UAE Gallium Production Partnership Challenges China's Critical Minerals Monopoly

EGA

US UAE gallium production partnership emerged through a strategic alliance between Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), Tawazun Council, and RTX Corporation. The US UAE gallium production initiative targets extraction at EGA's Al Taweelah alumina refinery, representing a significant diversification effort away from Chinese-dominated gallium supply chains for critical defense and aerospace applications.

Strategic Partnership Addresses Defense Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

US UAE gallium production collaboration directly responds to China's dual-use export restrictions affecting defense contractors. RTX subsidiary Raytheon faces Chinese export bans, forcing the aerospace giant to secure alternative gallium sources for semiconductor, radio frequency device, and LED manufacturing. The memorandum of understanding establishes an exploratory framework for domestic gallium production capabilities.

Meanwhile, EGA and RTX plan additional agreements to conduct comprehensive feasibility studies for the Al Taweelah facility integration. The partnership leverages EGA's existing alumina refining infrastructure while providing RTX guaranteed access to critical materials. This strategic alignment addresses both companies' objectives of supply chain security and market diversification.

Gallium Applications Drive Defense Industry Demand

However, gallium's strategic importance extends beyond traditional aluminum production into advanced technology applications. The critical mineral serves essential roles in semiconductor manufacturing, radio frequency devices, light emitting diodes, and consumer electronics. Defense and aerospace sectors particularly depend on gallium for advanced radar systems, satellite communications, and electronic warfare capabilities.

Therefore, establishing UAE-based gallium production creates alternative supply sources for Western defense contractors facing Chinese export restrictions. The Al Taweelah location provides geographic diversification while leveraging established Middle Eastern industrial infrastructure. This positioning reduces dependence on single-source suppliers in geopolitically sensitive regions.

Regional Industrial Diversification Strategy

Furthermore, the gallium partnership aligns with broader UAE economic diversification initiatives beyond traditional hydrocarbon sectors. EGA simultaneously announced plans for joint anode manufacturing development with Chinese producer Sunstone, demonstrating comprehensive industrial expansion strategies. These partnerships position Abu Dhabi as a regional critical minerals processing hub.

As a result, the US-UAE collaboration exemplifies how allied nations coordinate critical minerals supply chain resilience against export control weaponization. The partnership model combines American technology expertise with Middle Eastern industrial capacity and geographic positioning. Such arrangements increasingly define international approaches to critical materials security in contested global markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The US-UAE gallium production partnership exemplifies strategic alliance formation in response to China's critical minerals export controls, demonstrating how defense contractors and allied governments collaborate to establish alternative supply chains. This initiative represents a broader trend of geographic diversification in critical materials processing, positioning the UAE as a key intermediary in Western supply chain security strategies.

Bushveld Mineral

South African Output Cuts to Boost China's Vanadium-Nitrogen Exports

Rising Exports Driven by Lower South African Production and Strong US Demand

China’s vanadium-nitrogen exports are expected to see significant growth in 2025, primarily due to output cuts from a major South African producer, increasing demand from the US, and strong export interest from Chinese producers. Market participants anticipate a boost in global vanadium-nitrogen trade, benefiting China’s export numbers.

Impact of South African Output Cuts on Global Vanadium-Nitrogen Supply

South African vanadium-nitrogen production has been notably impacted by ongoing equipment maintenance at Bushveld Minerals Vametco plant. From mid-December to March 2025, the plant will operate at reduced capacity due to a cash shortage. In 2024, Bushveld’s production fell by 19%, amounting to 1,387 tonnes. This reduction in South African output is expected to continue in 2025, with the producer operating at low run rates due to negative profit margins. Consequently, China is positioned to capitalize on these cuts by increasing its exports.

Global vanadium-nitrogen alloy production is heavily concentrated in China and South Africa, with other countries lacking the necessary technology due to intellectual property restrictions. While European and US steel mills often prefer using ferro-vanadium (80% grade) over vanadium-nitrogen, China’s export increase in vanadium-nitrogen reflects changing dynamics in the alloy market.

Surge in China’s Vanadium-Nitrogen Exports and US Market Demand

China’s vanadium-nitrogen exports more than doubled in 2024, reaching 2,523 tonnes, up from 945 tonnes in 2023. This growth can be attributed to South Africa’s lower output and China’s expanded export activities. Notably, in December 2024, China’s vanadium-nitrogen exports surged five-fold to 377 tonnes, compared to just 67 tonnes a year earlier.

The US was the largest buyer of Chinese vanadium-nitrogen in 2024, importing 892 tonnes, more than double the 335 tonnes purchased in 2023. Canada also saw a dramatic increase in imports, with 323 tonnes imported, a more than five-fold rise from 60 tonnes in 2023. India’s demand also increased by 69%, reaching 317 tonnes in 2024. The US demand for vanadium-nitrogen is expected to continue to rise, as the US government, under President Trump, has pledged to boost domestic construction activities, which will likely increase the demand for steel alloys.

Export Prices and Market Dynamics

Chinese export prices for vanadium-nitrogen are currently in the range of $20.30 to $21 per kilogram, lower than European prices of $23.80 to $24.20 per kilogram. Chinese smelters are more inclined to sell to overseas markets to address domestic oversupply issues. In 2024, China produced 41,500 tonnes of vanadium-nitrogen, surpassing domestic steel mills' consumption of 34,800 tonnes. However, some alloy smelters reduced production from 2023 levels due to negative profit margins and weaker steel demand.

China’s Predatory Steel Exports : A Threat to Latin America

The Latin American steel industry is grappling with a severe crisis precipitated by China’s predatory trade practices. The influx of cheap Chinese steel has flooded the market, imperiling local producers' livelihoods. Gabriela Fajardo Mejia, an expert in international relations at the University of Navarra, highlighted in her interview with Diálogo Américas that China’s steel overproduction endangers 1.4 million jobs across Latin America’s steel sector, compelling numerous companies to cease operations and lay off workers. Furthermore, Chinese steel production often bypasses established environmental and quality standards, with transparency regulations being routinely ignored.

Henry Ziemer, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), pointed out that China's slowdown in real estate and construction has diminished domestic steel demand. Consequently, Chinese producers are compensating for reduced domestic sales through aggressive export strategies. With the U.S. market becoming increasingly inhospitable for Chinese steelmakers, they are now targeting Latin American countries, which present fewer trade barriers, to dispose of their surplus inventory.

The Chinese government's subsidies for steel production and exports during the pandemic exacerbated the issue, leading to a global proliferation of low-cost Chinese steel. In retaliation, Mexico, Chile, and Brazil have significantly raised tariffs on Chinese steel imports to safeguard their domestic industries, and other nations are expected to follow suit. Alejandro Wagner, the former Secretary-General of the Latin American Steel Association (Alacero), indicated in a BBC interview that the influx of inexpensive Chinese steel has caused significant damage to Latin American steel industries, forcing several major companies to halt their operations.

In March, Chilean steelmaker CAP suspended operations at its Huachipato plant due to the unsustainable business environment created by dumped Chinese steel. Operations resumed only after the Chilean government imposed substantial tariffs on Chinese steel. Similarly, Fabio Galan, president of Colombian steelmaker Acerías Pazdelrio, remarked on the devastating economic impact of cheap Chinese steel imports and called for fair competition.

Reports also suggest that Mexico’s iron ore mines, previously plundered by organized crime cartels, were pivotal in transporting stolen ore to China, highlighting the detrimental effects of China’s opaque and unfair trade practices.

Brazilian steel producer Gerdau temporarily laid off workers at its São José dos Campos plant in response to the unfair competition from Chinese steel. CEO Gustavo Werneck emphasized that this action was merely the initial step in tackling the surge of cheap Chinese steel imports.

Fajardo Mejia underscored the subsidies Chinese steel companies receive, enabling them to lower costs without adhering to quality and environmental standards. She also noted the considerable environmental impact, revealing that Chinese steel production emits 45% more CO2 per ton than Latin American production.

As a countermeasure, imposing tariffs on Chinese steel could escalate trade tensions between Latin American countries and China, with potential retaliatory actions from China, known for its coercive diplomacy. Historical instances, such as China’s bans on Argentine soybean products and Canadian canola seeds, exemplify possible consequences.

CSIS researcher Ziemer highlighted that China, the world’s largest steel producer, generates more steel than the combined output of the next nine largest producers, influencing international prices and destabilizing Latin American economies through dumping practices. He proposed that the current scenario offers an opportunity for the U.S. to collaborate with Latin American countries to counteract China’s unfair trade practices and safeguard domestic industries.

China Aerospace-Grade Titanium Sponge Exports Set to Rise as OEMs Diversify Supply

China Aerospace-Grade Titanium Sponge

China aerospace-grade titanium sponge exports are expected to rise over the next five years as western aerospace supply chains look for additional qualified raw material sources. Chinese producer Chaoyang Jinda Titanium expects international shipments of qualified aerospace-grade sponge to increase from around 1,000t this year to 10,000t by 2030.

The shift reflects a deeper change in the aerospace titanium supply chain. Western aircraft manufacturers and ingot melters are trying to reduce exposure to Russian supply, while aircraft build rates are expected to rise from 2027.

China aerospace-grade titanium sponge is therefore moving from a limited export niche into a potential supply-chain balancing tool. However, tariffs, qualification risk and geopolitical uncertainty will limit how quickly US and European buyers adopt Chinese material.

The opportunity is strongest in standard-quality structural titanium grades. Premium-quality sponge for engine, landing-gear and other critical applications is likely to remain controlled by established suppliers with long qualification histories.

Western Aerospace Buyers Face a Supply-Diversification Challenge

Aerospace-grade sponge demand is expected to recover from 2027 after a weaker 2026 caused by inventory normalisation. Mills have been reducing stocks of semi-finished titanium parts and raw materials, but aircraft production plans point to higher requirements later in the decade.

The timing is important. Airbus and Boeing both carry long aircraft backlogs, creating a decade of production visibility. This forces mills and original equipment manufacturers to look beyond short-term demand swings and secure raw material sources for future build-rate increases.

Western OEMs also continue to reassess Russian titanium exposure. If procurement from Russia declines, the market will need alternative aerospace-qualified sponge to fill the gap. Japan’s Toho Titanium and Osaka Titanium are expanding, while China is preparing to supply more qualified material.

Global approved aerospace-grade sponge supply excluding Russian products is expected to rise from about 74,000t this year to around 91,000t by 2030. Demand is expected to grow at a similar pace, leaving the market sensitive to which suppliers are included in purchasing programmes.

The supply-demand picture changes significantly depending on China and Russia. Excluding both suppliers creates a tighter market. Including them creates more apparent supply availability. This makes qualification and geopolitical acceptability just as important as physical capacity.

Some US ingot producers began qualifying Chinese titanium sponge in 2024. US imports from China rose to a 10-year high of 1,069t that year, showing that buyers were willing to test Chinese material when diversification pressure increased.

However, imports fell to 155t last year and no Chinese sponge imports were reported in January-February 2026. Tariff volatility, high mill inventories and policy uncertainty discouraged further purchasing.

This shows the main barrier for China aerospace-grade titanium sponge. Aerospace qualification requires multi-year commitments, stable documentation, repeatable quality and customer confidence. Buyers will not qualify a new source quickly if they fear trade rules could change again.

Titanium is exempt from the latest 10% US tariff, and overall duties have fallen back to 40% from 60%. But the rate itself is not the only issue. For aerospace buyers, volatility can be more damaging than the actual tariff level.

A mill can absorb or price a known tariff. It cannot easily build a long-term qualification strategy around unpredictable policy. This is why US buyers may limit Chinese sponge procurement to 15-20% of requirements, even if the material is technically acceptable.

Europe and Asia-Pacific may offer more immediate export channels. China already supplies aerospace-grade sponge to buyers in those regions, supporting shipments even when US demand is limited.

Capacity Expansion Could Change the Titanium Sponge Balance

China is preparing a large wave of aerospace-grade sponge capacity additions. Several major projects are scheduled to come on line soon, with combined new capacity of around 110,000 t/yr.

The scale is unprecedented. The planned additions exceed the combined existing capacity of Japan’s Toho and Osaka Titanium, Kazakhstan’s Ust-Kamenogorsk Titanium and Magnesium Plant, and Saudi Arabia’s ATTM.

China’s expansion is driven by two demand streams. Domestic aerospace demand is rising from the Comac C919 programme and military aircraft production. At the same time, producers expect higher export demand as western OEMs diversify away from Russia.

China’s titanium mill product demand already has a meaningful aerospace base. Aerospace applications accounted for about 20% of China’s titanium mill product demand in 2025, or roughly 31,280t. The chemicals industry remained the largest segment at 48%.

The domestic base gives Chinese sponge producers a stronger platform for quality improvement. Aerospace production experience matters because sponge qualification depends on consistency over time, not only nameplate capacity.

Still, some market participants question whether all new capacity can secure international aerospace qualification. New lines may need years of operating history before western melters and OEMs accept material for aircraft applications.

This is a critical distinction. China may have large physical capacity, but aerospace supply depends on approved, audited and repeatable production. Capacity alone does not guarantee market access.

Price competitiveness may support adoption. Domestic China aerospace-grade sponge prices have recently held firm at 55,000-57,000 yuan/t ex-works because of cost pressure. That remains competitive against some western supply routes, especially if buyers need alternative non-Russian material.

However, qualification is likely to split the market by application. Standard structural titanium grades are more likely to accept Chinese sponge over time. These grades support airframes and less critical structural components where qualification remains strict but less restrictive than engine-grade applications.

Premium-quality sponge will be harder to penetrate. Engine, landing-gear and other demanding aerospace uses require deeper qualification, tighter chemistry control and stronger confidence from prime contractors and tier suppliers.

Airbus’ titanium demand outlook adds another layer. The A350 is a high titanium-bearing platform, with titanium representing around 15% of aircraft weight. As A350 production rises toward 2027 and 2028, titanium demand visibility should improve across the supply chain.

That demand pull could make Chinese material more attractive if western supply tightens. But buyers will still balance cost, qualification, geopolitics and supply security.

For Chinese producers, the path is clear but difficult. They must prove consistent aerospace-grade quality, build long-term customer trust, manage export documentation and navigate trade policy risk.

For western OEMs, the decision is strategic. China aerospace-grade titanium sponge could reduce Russia exposure and improve supply flexibility. But it also introduces another geopolitical dependency at a time when aerospace and defence supply chains are under closer scrutiny.

The most likely outcome is partial adoption. Chinese sponge may become a growing supplement for standard-quality structural grades, while established Japanese, Kazakh, Saudi and other qualified suppliers remain central to premium aerospace applications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China aerospace-grade titanium sponge will become harder for western aerospace supply chains to ignore as aircraft build rates rise and Russian exposure narrows. The decisive issue is not capacity, but whether Chinese producers can convert new output into trusted, qualified and politically acceptable supply.

Lynas Heavy Rare Earths Production Breaks China's Market Monopoly

Lynas Rare Earths

Lynas heavy rare earths production achieved a historic milestone by becoming the first non-Chinese producer of separated dysprosium. The Australian mineral company's Lynas heavy rare earths facility in Malaysia successfully produced separated dysprosium, marking a significant breakthrough in global supply chain diversification for critical minerals essential to advanced manufacturing and defense applications.

Malaysian Plant Establishes Alternative Supply Chain

Lynas heavy rare earths processing capabilities expanded significantly during the first quarter of 2025. The company constructed dysprosium and terbium processing circuits at its Malaysian facility, with capacity to separate up to 1,500 tonnes per year of heavy rare earths. These new circuits position Lynas to challenge China's dominance in the separated heavy rare earths market.

Meanwhile, Lynas plans to commence separated terbium production next month at the same facility. The processing circuits will eventually enable production of separated dysprosium, terbium, and holmium concentrate. Additionally, the facility will produce unseparated samarium/europium/gadolinium and unseparated mixed heavy rare earths, creating a comprehensive product portfolio.

Strategic Timing Amid Chinese Export Restrictions

However, the breakthrough comes at a critical juncture for global rare earths markets. Chinese suppliers recently limited offers for rare earth minerals, including dysprosium and terbium, following government export control tightening. This timing underscores the strategic importance of establishing alternative supply sources outside China's control.

Therefore, Lynas' production achievement addresses growing concerns about supply chain vulnerability in critical minerals. The company's Q1 2025 total rare earth oxide production reached 1,911 tonnes, including 1,509 tonnes of NdPr oxide. Production declined 46% year-on-year due to improvement and maintenance works across Malaysian and Western Australian operations.

US Partnership Strengthens Supply Chain Resilience

Furthermore, Lynas continues developing another rare earths processing plant in Texas with US government support. The American facility will produce both separated heavy and light rare earths, further reducing Western dependence on Chinese supplies. This dual-facility strategy creates redundancy and geographic diversification for critical mineral processing.

As a result, Lynas positions itself as a cornerstone of Western rare earths supply chain security. The company's expansion into heavy rare earths processing represents a strategic shift from its traditional focus on light rare earths production, addressing military and high-tech manufacturing requirements.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Lynas' achievement in producing separated heavy rare earths outside China represents a watershed moment for global supply chain resilience in critical minerals. The timing coincides perfectly with Chinese export restrictions, demonstrating the urgent need for alternative suppliers in materials essential to clean energy, defense, and advanced technology sectors.