Trump's Abrupt Tariff Decision: Pausing Global Levies While Increasing China's Tariffs

China Tariff

In a surprising shift, President Donald Trump announced that he would pause the punitive tariffs on key US trading partners, which were set to begin today. However, he simultaneously raised tariffs on Chinese imports to an extraordinary 125%. This move marks a significant reversal from earlier statements, as Trump justified the pause with the recent volatility in financial markets, particularly in the stock and bond markets.

Pausing Global Tariffs but Targeting China

Trump’s decision, announced via social media, paused reciprocal tariffs on nearly every country except China. These tariffs, which had ranged from 17% on countries like the Philippines and Israel to 49% on Cambodia, were set to begin today. The pause will last for 90 days, offering a temporary respite to US trading partners.

However, the increased tariffs on Chinese imports stand in stark contrast. According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the tariff rate on China will rise to an unprecedented 125%. This escalation follows ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, with China repeatedly increasing its trade actions against the US.

The EU, which would have faced a 20% tariff starting today, has already prepared retaliatory measures. The European Union has also proposed countermeasures for the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports imposed earlier by the US.

Flexibility in Tariff Policy and Trade Negotiations

In a shift from earlier policy, President Trump indicated a willingness to consider exemptions for certain US importers who may be disproportionately affected by the tariffs. This move contrasts with previous statements where the administration had insisted on a blanket approach. Energy commodities and critical minerals were exempt from both the baseline 10% tariff and the higher reciprocal tariffs.

Furthermore, Bessent suggested that trade discussions may also involve non-trade issues, with the US considering a major LNG project in Alaska that could attract interest from South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. These potential deals could factor into negotiations aimed at reducing the US trade deficit with these countries.

China’s Response and Global Impact

China, predictably, responded to the new tariffs with its own retaliatory measures. As of April 10, China will increase import tariffs on US goods by 50 percentage points, reaching a total of 84%. This escalation underscores the growing trade conflict between the two largest economies in the world.

The UK and Canada have also indicated potential countermeasures. The UK, which remains subject to a 10% tariff, has included refined oil products from the US in a list of goods that could be targeted. Mexico and Canada, however, were excluded from the latest round of tariffs, further highlighting the complex nature of US trade policies.

Uncertainty Surrounds Tariff Strategy

The sudden reversal in tariff policy caught many in the administration by surprise. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who had been testifying before the House Ways and Means Committee, was blindsided by the announcement. This left many questioning the coherence and strategy behind Trump’s tariff decisions.

Representative Steven Horsford of Nevada remarked that there appeared to be no clear strategy, as evidenced by Greer’s reaction. This further compounded the sense of unpredictability surrounding US trade policy.

Conclusion: A Shifting Trade Landscape

President Trump's abrupt changes to tariff policies, particularly the increase in tariffs on China, signal that the US is deepening its trade conflict with the country. While the temporary pause on global tariffs provides some relief to US allies, the continued escalation with China may have long-lasting effects on global trade dynamics. As negotiations unfold, businesses worldwide will be watching closely to understand the full impact of these decisions.

WTI Prices Surge Following Trump’s Surprise Tariff Pause

WTI

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices saw a significant rebound after President Donald Trump unexpectedly announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs. This move sent the US light sweet crude benchmark soaring by $5 per barrel within just an hour. As of midday Wednesday, May Nymex WTI was trading at approximately $62.80 per barrel, bouncing back from a four-year low earlier that day.

Trump’s Tariff Pause and Market Reactions

WTI crude prices initially dropped to $55.12 per barrel, marking a 7% decline from Tuesday’s close. This was the lowest price for WTI since February 2021. However, following Trump’s tariff announcement, WTI regained some of its losses, jumping nearly 5% by midday. Despite this recovery, WTI remains about $10 per barrel lower than on April 2, when Trump first unveiled sweeping tariffs on multiple countries.

The pause on tariffs also had a significant impact on US equity markets. Major stock indices, including the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq, all surged by 8-11% following Trump’s announcement. The broader economic concerns stemming from the original tariffs, which had fueled fears of a stagnating US economy, were temporarily alleviated by the tariff suspension.

Impact on Global Tariffs and China's Role

Trump’s tariff action included a 10% baseline tariff on imports from nearly all US trading partners, which took effect on April 5. However, the most significant change was the announcement that tariffs on Chinese imports would be raised to 125%, effective immediately. Trump cited China’s “lack of respect” for global markets as the driving force behind this substantial tariff increase.

The unexpected tariff pause and the escalated pressure on China sent shockwaves through global markets. While the 90-day break on tariffs provides some relief to US trading partners, it is unclear what the long-term impact will be on the global economy, particularly as the trade tensions with China continue to escalate.

Conclusion: A Temporary Relief for Oil Markets

The temporary pause in US tariffs has provided a much-needed relief for WTI prices, which had been in a downward spiral earlier this week. However, the ongoing tension with China and the uncertainty surrounding global trade remain significant factors in determining the future direction of oil prices. As the 90-day pause progresses, market participants will continue to monitor both tariff developments and economic indicators to gauge the stability of global oil markets.

EU Prepares Countermeasures Against U.S. Import Tariffs

U.S. Tariffs

The European Union is finalizing a series of countermeasures in response to the U.S.'s decision to impose a 20% tariff on imports, effective April 9. These tariffs are in addition to the existing duties on various goods, particularly steel and aluminum, which have already been heavily impacted by U.S. trade policies. The European Commission is working on a first set of responses, and further actions may be introduced depending on how the tariffs affect EU industries.

EU's Strong Stance Against U.S. Tariffs

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the EU's firm position on combating what it perceives as unfair trade practices. Von der Leyen stated that Europe will not accept "dumping" in its markets, referring to the practice of selling products at artificially low prices. The EU’s commitment to protecting its markets from global overcapacity remains a key aspect of its response. Von der Leyen also expressed disappointment, noting that many Europeans feel let down by their “oldest ally” – a reference to the U.S.

Impact on Non-Ferrous Metals, Energy, and Minerals

The U.S. tariffs, set to begin on April 9, will apply to most foreign imports, with some key exceptions. Energy products, as well as various minerals, including non-ferrous metals, are exempt from the new tariffs. Additionally, oil products, base oils, coal, and some fertilizers and chemicals will not be subject to the new duties. However, the tariff will still target steel, aluminum, and automobiles, industries that have already been under the strain of separate, earlier tariffs.

A Changing Global Trade Landscape

These tariffs are expected to have significant effects on global trade, particularly in sectors that rely heavily on international imports and exports. With many European industries vulnerable to the impact of these tariffs, the EU is preparing to take action to mitigate any economic fallout. The bloc is closely monitoring indirect effects, which could involve shifts in trade patterns and increased pressure on affected sectors.

Conclusion: Europe's Preparedness in a Trade Conflict

As the EU finalizes its countermeasures, the bloc is determined to protect its markets and industries from the negative effects of U.S. tariffs. Although the initial measures focus on steel and aluminum, the broader scope of U.S. tariff policies could continue to challenge global trade dynamics. The EU’s response will likely shape future trade relations between Europe and the U.S. in the coming months.

Metal Futures Plunge Amid Rising Global Trade Tensions

LME

New US Tariffs and China's Retaliatory Measures Drive Sell-Off in Base Metals

Base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw a significant decline on Friday as the global trade environment became more volatile. The new US tariffs and China’s retaliatory actions sparked concerns about a potential full-scale trade war and its implications for global economic growth. This turmoil led to a sharp sell-off not only in metals but also in global equities, oil prices, and the wider commodities market.

Market Reactions to US-China Trade Tensions

On April 5, 2025, the LME base metals complex dropped sharply, reflecting fears over a global economic slowdown. LME-traded base metals, although not directly impacted by the new tariffs, suffered as the potential growth impact on industries that rely on industrial metals became apparent. Investors flocked to safe-haven assets, particularly government bonds and gold, as fears of a global recession intensified.

China responded to the US tariffs by imposing a 34% reciprocal tariff on all US imports, effective from April 10, 2025. Additionally, China announced measures including restrictions on rare earth exports and an investigation into DuPont’s Chinese subsidiary. These retaliatory actions further fueled concerns of escalating tensions between the two largest economies.

Sharp Declines in Key Base Metals

The turmoil hit key metals hard, with copper suffering a 5.74% drop on the LME, reaching $8,900 per metric tonne, a three-month low. Similarly, Comex copper fell by 8.83% to $4.402 per pound. Nickel, aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin all saw significant losses, with the three-month LME nickel dropping 3.56%, aluminum falling 2.84%, and zinc slipping 2.84%. The declines reflected the broader uncertainty surrounding global trade and the implications for demand in sectors reliant on industrial metals.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index weakened to 102.020, reflecting broader market instability. Despite a stronger-than-expected US employment report, the US dollar remained near its six-month low, further contributing to market volatility.

Global Equities and Oil Prices Under Pressure

Global equities mirrored the downturn in metals, with the S&P 500 losing nearly 5% by midday, marking its lowest point since last May. Stock markets in Japan, South Korea, and Europe were also significantly impacted, with Japan’s Topix falling 4.5%, and the Stoxx Europe 600 index closing 5.1% lower.

Oil markets also felt the pressure, with Brent crude dropping by 6.8% to $69.86 per barrel, and WTI falling by as much as 7.9% to $61.66 per barrel. The sharp drop in oil prices further compounded concerns of an economic slowdown, which has sent shockwaves through global markets.

Tariff Shock Forces IMF to Cut Global Growth Forecast

IMF

Trump’s Tariffs Trigger Global Economic Revisions, Says IMF

Focus Keyphrase: IMF global growth forecast 2025 tariffs

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly lowered its 2025–2026 global growth outlook following steep new tariffs introduced by former President Donald Trump. The revised World Economic Outlook, released this week, shows a projected global GDP growth of just 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, down from 3.3% per year forecast earlier this year.

The revision stems from Trump’s across-the-board tariff policies, which include 10% on most imports, 25% on steel and aluminum, and a record 145% on Chinese imports. These levels, the IMF noted, mark the highest effective US tariff rates in over a century.

🇺🇸 North America Faces Sharp Downturn

The IMF warns that the United States, Canada, and Mexico will suffer the most due to both tariffs and retaliatory trade measures. The US growth forecast dropped from 2.7% to 1.8% for 2025, while Mexico is now projected to shrink by 0.3% instead of growing, and Canada’s growth falls to 1.4%.

The IMF cited heightened policy uncertainty and weakened demand as key factors eroding economic confidence and investment. Meanwhile, President Trump continues to defend the tariffs, claiming they boost American capitalism and would incentivize onshore manufacturing.

Markets, however, responded negatively. US stock indices fell over 2%, and fears of a broader economic slowdown intensified following Trump’s renewed attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates.

China and Eurozone Not Immune

The IMF also reduced its outlook for China, predicting a decline to 4.0% annual growth in 2025–2026, down from the previous forecast of 4.6%. The euro area will also see slower expansion at 0.8% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.

Although Trump asserts tariffs are bringing “billions” into the US economy, the IMF argues that the "unpredictability of the trade environment" is undermining global recovery efforts and long-term economic planning.

Nickel Prices Drop Amid US 'Liberation Day' Tariffs

Nickel

Global Market Faces Recession Fears as Tariffs Hit Nickel Prices

Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) plunged to their lowest levels since October 2020, following the announcement of the US "liberation day" tariffs. These tariffs, introduced on April 2, were more substantial than anticipated, sending shockwaves throughout the base metals markets. As fears of a global recession intensified, the broader base metals, equities, and commodities markets experienced a sharp decline.

The US government imposed a 10% tariff on all trading partner countries effective April 5. Additionally, higher tariffs were set for countries with significant trade deficits with the US, scheduled to take effect from April 9. The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs, along with their broader impact, has contributed to confusion and panic selling among traders.

Uncertainty Fuels Market Turmoil

The nickel market has been particularly volatile in the wake of these developments. The initial drop in nickel prices following the announcement of the tariffs was relatively modest at 1%. However, prices plunged further, losing 3.6% on April 4 and a significant 4.9% on April 5, dropping to $14,550 per ton. This sharp decline can be attributed to China's retaliatory tariffs, which placed a 34% duty on US exports.

Nickel prices have now fallen to their lowest point since October 2020, and the situation remains dire for many producers. Reports suggest that more than three-quarters of refined nickel production is currently operating at a loss, given the prevailing market conditions. Additionally, class 1 nickel production costs in Indonesia, a key supplier, are reported to exceed $15,000 per ton, indicating that current nickel prices are unsustainable for many producers.

Tariff Confusion Exacerbates Nickel Sell-Off

The sell-off in nickel was further aggravated by the confusion surrounding the application of the tariffs. Market participants were uncertain whether LME-grade nickel would be exempt from the new tariffs. Official documents confirmed that a baseline 10% tariff would not apply to HS Code 7508, which pertains to "Other Articles of Nickel." However, the critical HS Code 7502, which covers "unwrought nickel" used for LME-deliverable class 1 nickel, did not receive similar exemption.

Some traders have already begun moving nickel shipments out of the US to avoid the uncertainty, with large European trading groups indicating that they are rerouting cargoes to Rotterdam, UK. Meanwhile, nickel imports into the US from Canada, the country's main supplier, have continued to flow without tariffs under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). However, the future of this arrangement remains unclear, as the upcoming April 9 tariff changes could subject Canada to the same 10% tariff as other countries with trade deficits.

Outlook for Nickel Producers and the Market

The nickel market remains in a precarious situation. With continued confusion around the tariff details and recession concerns gripping major economies, it’s unclear how long the current market conditions will last. As more tariff structures are implemented and market players react to these changes, the global nickel supply chain faces increasing uncertainty.

US Tariffs Pressure Copper Prices and Curb China’s Scrap Imports

China Copper

US tariffs, introduced by President Donald Trump on April 2, have significantly impacted global copper prices. The tariffs, set at a minimum 10% tax on all foreign imports, have caused concerns about weakened copper demand, particularly from key industries that rely on copper, such as automobiles and home appliances. China’s copper scrap imports are also under pressure due to retaliatory tariffs, which will be implemented by China on April 10.

Impact of Tariffs on Copper Prices

Following the announcement of tariffs, copper prices saw a dramatic decline. As of April 7, London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper prices fell to a one-year low of $8,105 per ton, a significant drop from $9,721 per ton on April 2. Similarly, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) prices also plummeted to a three-month low of 73,640 yuan per ton from 79,890 yuan per ton during the same period.

Although copper itself is not directly affected by the new tariffs, the downstream sectors, such as automotive manufacturing and home appliances, face substantial tariffs. This will likely depress demand for copper, as these industries represent significant end-users of copper products.

US Tariffs on Cars and Appliances Affect Copper Demand

A 25% tariff on imported cars and trucks came into effect on April 3, with a further 25% tax on auto parts set to follow in May. The US light vehicle market saw significant growth in 2024, with sales climbing to 16.8 million units. Similarly, the US imported $23.5 billion worth of home appliances from China in 2024. These appliances, including cooling devices and electronics, represented 23% of global copper demand in 2023. The imposition of tariffs on these goods will likely lead to a reduction in copper demand from the US.

On a positive note, lower copper prices may drive copper fabricators to restock in the short term, especially after a significant price drop in late March. Data from the SHFE shows that copper stocks fell from 256,328 tons on March 21 to 225,736 tons by April 3, as downstream buyers rushed to purchase copper cathode in response to falling prices.

China’s Retaliatory Tariffs and Copper Scrap Imports

China’s planned tariffs on US copper scrap, set to take effect on April 10, will impact copper supply in the country. In 2024, China imported over 440,000 tons of copper scrap from the US, accounting for nearly 20% of its total copper scrap imports. However, market participants predict that some traders will attempt to bypass the tariffs by sourcing US-origin copper scrap from other countries.

In February, US copper scrap exports fell by 10% compared to the previous year, with China seeing the largest drop in imports. This decrease in exports can be attributed to tariff expectations, which have made it difficult for US exporters to remain competitive. The large spread between CME and LME prices has further strained export options, leaving US dealers with excess scrap volumes.

Limited Impact on Copper Concentrate and Cathode Supplies

China’s retaliatory tariffs are expected to have a minimal impact on its domestic copper concentrate and cathode supply. In 2024, China imported just 460,000 tons of copper concentrate and 1,575 tons of copper cathode from the US, representing only a small fraction of its total imports. Therefore, the retaliatory tariffs are unlikely to cause significant disruptions to these supply chains.

Mexico's Auto Industry Struggles with US Tariffs Despite USMCA Exemption

Mexico Car Tariffs

Despite the recent decision by US President Donald Trump to pause reciprocal tariffs on several nations, Mexico's automotive industry continues to face significant challenges. The 25% tariffs on exports of automobiles, steel, and aluminum, announced last month, remain in place. These tariffs, coupled with Trump's global 25% tariff on auto imports, continue to impact Mexican carmakers.

USMCA Exemption Still Leaves Uncertainty

Mexico and Canada do benefit from an exemption in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) for imports that comply with regional content rules. However, the specifics of how this exemption will be implemented remain unclear. Mexico is still in negotiations with the US to eliminate or reduce the tariffs in certain cases.

Gabriel Padilla, head of the Mexican auto parts association INA, explained that their primary focus is to extend the tariff application to auto parts covered by the USMCA. He stressed the importance of demonstrating the integration levels by component grade to show what is beneficial for both countries. According to a recent INA study, the US’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum could cost auto parts companies $2.94 billion more in additional costs.

Negotiations and Uncertainty Continue

Despite ongoing negotiations, the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs is causing some companies to pause exports while awaiting clarity. Rogelio Garza, president of the Mexican automaker association AMIA, mentioned that some companies are hesitant to continue shipments until the impact of the tariffs becomes clearer. He expects more concrete definitions regarding the auto tariffs within the next two months.

Garza also pointed out that the paused shipments contributed to a 6% decline in Mexican auto exports to the US in the first quarter, as reported by the national statistics agency Inegi. The total exports fell to 775,886 units, down from the previous year's figures.

Conclusion: A Time of Adjustment for Mexico’s Automotive Sector

The automotive industry in Mexico faces a period of uncertainty as it continues to navigate the effects of US tariffs. While the USMCA exemption provides some relief, the lack of clarity on its implementation and ongoing negotiations leave many carmakers in a state of flux. The situation is further complicated by the high costs imposed by the tariffs on steel, aluminum, and auto parts. As negotiations unfold, the next couple of months will be critical for determining the future of the Mexican automotive sector.

New US Tariffs Could Significantly Impact European Aluminium Scrap Exports

Aluminium Scrap

European aluminium recycling faces challenges as US tariffs on scrap imports rise.

The recent announcement of new tariffs by the United States government, particularly on aluminium scrap from Europe, is sending ripples through the European aluminium recycling industry. The sweeping tariff adjustments, which were introduced by US President Donald Trump on April 2, threaten to significantly reduce the flow of European aluminium scrap to the US. With these new measures, aluminium scrap will face a substantial tariff, making it less attractive for US buyers.

Impact of New Tariffs on Aluminium Scrap Exports

The new tariffs, set to take effect on April 9, place aluminium scrap imports from Europe under a 20% tariff, while imports from the UK will face a slightly lower 10% tariff. This comes after the previously established 25% tariff on primary aluminium imports from Europe, which was put in place last month. As a result, the cost of importing aluminium scrap from Europe will be nearly as high as that for importing primary aluminium, significantly altering the economics of aluminium recycling.

Historically, the US had been a major buyer of European aluminium scrap, with many industries using recycled aluminium as an alternative to primary aluminium. The new tariffs, however, will likely make scrap imports much less appealing to US buyers, pushing them to explore other options. This comes after previous expectations that the US would turn to aluminium scrap as a more affordable alternative to primary aluminium, which is now burdened by hefty tariffs.

Reactions from Industry Associations

Industry associations such as European Aluminium and Aluminium Deutschland have voiced concerns over the new tariffs, as they undermine the viability of aluminium scrap exports. These associations had earlier called for export restrictions on scrap due to fears that large-scale shipments of aluminium scrap could exacerbate market imbalances. With the tariffs in place, the likelihood of scrap exports to the US is expected to diminish significantly.

European Aluminium has indicated that it is closely monitoring the situation to determine its next steps regarding export restrictions. Aluminium Deutschland, however, has yet to comment on the matter.

What This Means for the Aluminium Recycling Industry

These new tariffs could lead to a shift in the global aluminium market. If European aluminium scrap becomes less competitive due to high tariffs, it may force US buyers to seek out other sources of aluminium scrap, possibly from domestic markets or alternative suppliers. Additionally, this could put pressure on European recyclers, who may face reduced demand for their products, forcing them to explore new markets or adjust their pricing strategies.

As the situation evolves, the aluminium recycling industry in Europe will need to adapt to these new challenges, either by lobbying for changes in tariff policies or by finding ways to remain competitive in an increasingly restricted global market.

US New Tariffs Could Disrupt China's Non-Exempt Metals Exports

China Tariffs

New tariffs on lithium, rare earth magnets, and more could affect China's metal exports to the US.

The United States has announced significant new tariffs on Chinese imports, with a notable focus on metals. While many non-ferrous metals and ferro-alloys have been exempted, some crucial exports from China, like lithium, rare earth magnets, and lithium-ion batteries, will face substantial increases in tariff rates. These changes are set to have a lasting impact on the trade between the US and China, especially in the energy storage and electric vehicle (EV) sectors.

High Tariffs on Lithium-Ion Batteries and Energy Storage

As of April 9, the US will implement an 82.4% tariff on electric vehicle (EV) power batteries and a 57.4% tariff on non-EV lithium-ion batteries from China. This substantial hike in tariffs will make Chinese-made batteries far more expensive and may eliminate the possibility of Chinese EV power batteries entering the US market. US consumers will likely absorb these costs, potentially leading to inflation in the US battery industry, especially in the energy storage sector.

China’s lithium-ion battery exports to the US had already been on the rise, with a 59% increase in exports during the first two months of the year. However, these new tariffs are expected to curb the growth of China's battery exports to the US and negatively affect lithium feedstock prices, which are currently at a four-year low.

Impact on Rare Earth Magnets

Rare earth magnets are another key area of concern, as these products were not exempted from the new tariffs. Despite some uncertainty about the exact tariff implementation, producers in China are anxious about the potential 54% tariff on rare earth magnets. China remains the dominant supplier of rare earth magnets globally, and while the US does have some alternatives, they are mostly focused on military applications with significantly higher prices. This makes it unlikely that the US can fully escape its dependence on China, especially for civilian applications.

China’s exports of rare earth magnets to the US in 2022 accounted for 12% of its total exports, and while tariffs could reduce this figure, China’s competitive pricing in the civil sector ensures its continued dominance in the global market.

Copper, Aluminium, and Hafnium: Other Affected Metals

While copper and aluminium are exempt from this latest round of tariffs, the copper industry remains on edge. US authorities are investigating the potential security implications of copper imports, and there’s speculation that a tariff may be imposed in the future. As for aluminium, Chinese exports are already subject to a steep 70% tariff, which is expected to discourage further aluminium exports to the US, pushing Chinese suppliers to seek alternative markets.

Hafnium, a critical metal used in aerospace applications, will also face a significant tariff hike, moving from 34% to 79%. This change could prompt US buyers to source hafnium from other regions, like Rotterdam, where the tariff is considerably lower.

Conclusion

The new US tariffs on Chinese metals exports are set to reshape the global metals market, particularly for lithium-ion batteries, rare earth magnets, and hafnium. While some sectors, like copper and aluminium, may have avoided immediate tariff hikes, long-term implications for the industry remain uncertain. The tariff increase on key metal exports from China to the US is expected to alter supply chains and increase costs for US consumers, especially in the EV and energy storage markets.

China Files WTO Case Against US Tariffs

Beijing Challenges US 10% Tariffs on Chinese Goods, Accusing Washington of Trade Protectionism

On February 5, 2025, China filed a case with the World Trade Organization (WTO) challenging the United States' additional 10% tariffs on all Chinese goods. This move follows the implementation of the tariffs on February 4, 2025, as announced by the US government under President Donald Trump’s administration. The case was officially circulated to WTO members on the same day, as confirmed by the WTO.

A Growing Trade Dispute: China’s Strong Response to US Tariffs

The US’s blanket 10% tariffs on Chinese imports add to the previous tariffs imposed during both Trump’s and former President Joe Biden’s terms. This action has intensified the trade tension between the two global powers, with China strongly criticizing the move. China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a statement describing the tariffs as a serious violation of WTO rules and an example of “unilateralism and trade protectionism.” It further claimed that these tariffs undermine the multilateral trading system and disrupt the stability of global industrial and supply chains.

In retaliation, China imposed its own set of tariffs on a range of US goods, including crude oil, coal, liquefied natural gas (LNG), thermal and coking coal, as well as large displacement vehicles and pick-up trucks. Additionally, China has expanded its export controls to include more critical minerals, further escalating the trade conflict.

Geopolitical Tensions and the WTO's Role

This WTO case is part of the broader geopolitical tensions between China and the Western world, which have been steadily increasing in recent years. While the WTO offers a platform for dispute resolution, some industry participants are uncertain about the case’s potential success, especially given Trump’s past threats to withdraw from the WTO, as well as his withdrawal from other international agreements such as the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization (WHO).

In August 2024, China also filed a case against the European Union (EU) for imposing provisional anti-subsidy duties on Chinese battery electric vehicles (BEVs), highlighting the growing rift in international trade dynamics.

US Launches Section 232 Probe Into Aircraft and Engine Imports

U.S. Aircraft

Trade Investigation Targets National Security and Import Reliance

The U.S. government has launched a Section 232 investigation into imports of commercial aircraft and engines, citing national security concerns. The Focus Keyphrase "aircraft and engine imports" lies at the heart of this probe, which could lead to heightened tariffs on critical aerospace products and disrupt long-standing free trade norms.

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) is evaluating the impact of foreign government subsidies and predatory trade practices on U.S. aerospace competitiveness. It is also reviewing whether increased domestic capacity could reduce the nation’s dependence on imports. The investigation, quietly initiated on May 1 and made public on May 9, grants stakeholders a three-week comment period to respond.

Tariff Tensions Add Pressure to Global Aerospace Supply Chains

This probe adds to growing friction in the global aviation industry, which had largely operated under the 1979 Agreement on Trade in Civil Aircraft. That agreement enabled decades of tariff-free trade in commercial aviation components. However, the Trump administration’s push for reciprocal tariffs disrupted this regime, and although some duties have been delayed until July, a 10% tariff remains on most aircraft imports.

In parallel, the U.S. and UK recently reached a trade agreement allowing Rolls-Royce’s Trent 1000 engines—used in Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner—to enter the U.S. duty-free. Still, U.S. firms like Boeing, GE Aerospace, and RTX are urging a return to “zero-for-zero” tariffs, emphasizing America’s $75 billion aerospace trade surplus.

EU Considers Retaliatory Measures Against US Aerospace Exports

In response to the escalating tensions, the European Union is preparing countermeasures. On May 7, the European Commission opened public consultations on potential tariffs targeting €95 billion in U.S. goods, including large commercial aircraft. If enacted, these measures would directly impact Boeing deliveries to EU-based carriers and leasing firms.

The inclusion of aircraft under CN code 88024 signals the EU’s intent to mirror U.S. trade policy shifts. While Boeing has not commented publicly, industry leaders are watching closely, as retaliatory tariffs could disrupt delivery schedules, inflame transatlantic relations, and reshape global supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Section 232 investigation into aircraft and engine imports marks a pivotal moment in U.S. aerospace trade policy. As governments reassess industrial self-sufficiency, the balance between national security and global cooperation becomes increasingly fragile. This shift may signal a new era of strategic protectionism in advanced manufacturing sectors.

Blanket US Aluminium Tariffs to Have Limited Impact on European Trade Flows

US Aluminium

Trump's 25% Tariff on All Aluminium Imports Will Affect US Consumers, Not European Markets

US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a blanket 25% tariff on all aluminium imports is expected to have minimal impact on European trade flows. This contrasts with earlier plans to impose tariffs specifically on imports from Canada and Mexico. According to market participants, the new approach is unlikely to disrupt European markets as much as the previous strategy might have.

Impact of Blanket Tariffs on Aluminium Trade

Trump’s new tariffs, which will apply to all aluminium imports, are set to be announced soon. This blanket tariff on steel and aluminium is expected to affect all exporting countries without distinguishing between suppliers. Canada, the UAE, and Argentina were the leading exporters of unwrought aluminium to the US last year, but the tariffs will now apply to everyone, making it difficult for countries like Canada to redirect excess supplies to Europe as initially anticipated.

Under the previous plan, markets predicted a shift in trade flows, with more Canadian aluminium potentially moving to Europe. This was expected to reduce European premiums due to an increase in supply, as demand in Europe remained weak. However, under the new tariff strategy, this shift is likely to be less pronounced. The global competitiveness of Canadian aluminium is diminished when tariffs apply universally, making aluminium from other regions, such as the Middle East and South America, less attractive in the US market.

Consequences for US Consumers and Domestic Production

The main consequence of these blanket tariffs will be higher costs for US consumers. While the tariffs could potentially drive up domestic production, increasing capacity will take years. In the meantime, US buyers will face higher prices for aluminium imports, particularly from Canada, as shipping times from these suppliers are shorter than those from more distant countries.

Market analysts believe that, despite the tariffs, US consumers will continue to import from Canada because of these logistical advantages. The blanket tariff strategy is unlikely to redirect a significant volume of Canadian aluminium to Europe, meaning the overall impact on European aluminium flows will be minimal.

Conclusion: A Shift in Costs, Not Trade Flows

In conclusion, Trump’s blanket tariffs on aluminium imports are expected to result in higher costs for US consumers but will have limited consequences for European trade flows. The market will likely experience some adjustments, but European aluminium premiums are not expected to drop significantly as a result of these changes.

South Africa’s Mineral Exports to the US Mostly Exempt from Tariffs

South Africa Minerals

Key South African Minerals, Including PGMs, Escape New US Tariffs Amid Trade Tensions

South Africa’s mineral exports to the United States, including valuable platinum group metals (PGMs), have been largely exempted from the latest round of US import tariffs. President Donald Trump's announcement on April 2, 2025, introduced reciprocal tariffs on a variety of goods, but crucial mineral exports such as PGMs, gold, manganese, titanium, chrome, and coal will not be subject to additional duties. However, some South African exports, such as iron ore and diamonds, will face a 30% tariff.

Impact of Tariffs on South Africa’s Economy

In 2024, South Africa exported 65.3 billion rand ($3.4 billion) worth of mineral products and precious metals to the US, with PGMs accounting for 76% of the total value. Despite the tariff exclusions on key minerals, other sectors, particularly the automotive industry, are expected to face significant economic impacts. The Minerals Council South Africa (MCSA) has warned that the new tariffs on iron ore and diamonds will hurt the country’s economy, particularly its automotive manufacturing sector.

Additionally, a separate 25% tariff on all US imports of cars and trucks, which took effect on March 26, 2025, is expected to reduce demand for automobiles in the US. This, in turn, will affect PGMs, as platinum, palladium, and rhodium are critical for the production of autocatalysts used to reduce vehicle exhaust emissions. Slowing car sales will result in reduced demand for PGMs, leading to potential price volatility in the near term.

Long-Term Outlook for PGMs

Despite these short-term concerns, the MCSA remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for PGMs. Although current market conditions may cause fluctuations in prices, the demand for PGMs is expected to remain strong over time. However, the broader economic challenges posed by these tariffs—particularly their potential impact on global growth—are concerning for the entire South African mining industry.

South Africa exports 7% of its goods to the US, a relatively small share in terms of total US imports (0.25%). Despite this, the country has limited capacity to retaliate against these tariffs. Experts suggest that South African exporters will need to explore alternative markets and enhance collaborative efforts to mitigate the impact of these tariffs.

China Expands Export Controls on Critical Minerals Amid Trade Tensions

China Critical Minerals

New Restrictions on Tungsten, Indium, and Other Critical Metals

China has intensified its trade strategies by imposing new export controls on additional critical minerals. This move is seen as a countermeasure against higher tariffs recently imposed by the United States. The newly restricted materials include various metals and compounds of tungsten, indium, tellurium, bismuth, and molybdenum. The export restrictions came into effect on February 4, as announced by China’s Ministry of Commerce.

Impact on Global Supply Chains

This expansion of export controls follows the introduction of similar measures in 2023-24, which included key materials such as gallium, germanium, graphite, and antimony. With the recent addition, the scope now covers more crucial metals used in various industries globally. According to industry estimates, China holds a dominant share of the global supply for metals like tungsten and bismuth. For instance, it is the world’s largest producer and exporter of tungsten, controlling nearly 80% of the global market. Similarly, China is responsible for 70-80% of the world's bismuth supply, which further underscores its influential role in the global supply chain.

The new export controls will allow China greater flexibility in deciding which countries can receive these critical minerals. Market participants have indicated that the export restrictions could drive up global prices, especially for tungsten and bismuth, due to China's near-monopoly on these materials. This is likely to cause disruptions for industries that rely heavily on these metals, from electronics to energy production.

Global Repercussions and Market Shifts

The broader implications of these controls may be felt across various sectors. As China continues to tighten its grip on critical mineral exports, consumers outside of China will face challenges in securing alternative sources of supply. However, some experts suggest that this move might spur increased investments in local production capabilities in non-China markets, as countries seek to reduce their dependence on Chinese supplies.

In the short term, global markets will likely experience higher prices for the affected minerals, particularly as exporters must follow a stringent verification process before shipping these critical materials. The procedural delays and uncertainty about permitted shipments will add to the volatility of the market.

Conclusion: Strategic Maneuver in Global Trade

China's latest export controls reflect a growing trend of resource nationalism, where nations leverage their dominance in critical industries to secure economic and political advantages. These measures come amidst heightened trade tensions, particularly with the United States, and are designed to protect China’s national security and economic interests. As the global demand for these minerals continues to rise, China’s role in the critical metals supply chain remains pivotal, making it essential for businesses worldwide to monitor these developments closely.

Goldman Sachs Cuts Aluminium Price Forecast on Weaker Global Growth

Aluminium

Trade Tariffs Pressure Aluminium Market Outlook

Goldman Sachs has lowered its aluminium price forecast due to slowing global growth driven by rising US trade tariffs. The US bank now expects LME aluminium prices to average $2,000/t in Q3 2025, rising to $2,300/t by year-end. This is significantly down from its prior forecast of $2,650/t by late 2025 and $3,100/t in 2026.

US tariffs on aluminium imports from key trading partners have weakened global demand and sentiment. Meanwhile, new tariffs announced in April—targeting electronics and pharmaceuticals—may further suppress economic activity. Goldman now sees aluminium demand growth at 1.1–2.3% over 2025–26, down from earlier 2.4–2.6% projections.

Market Faces Surplus, But No Smelter Closures Expected

Goldman Sachs forecasts a global aluminium surplus of 580,000 tonnes in 2025, reversing a previously expected deficit. However, it does not foresee widespread smelter shutdowns, even with prices at the cost curve’s 75th percentile. Still, a prolonged downturn below $2,000/t could eventually force curtailments to stabilize supply-demand balance.

The bank cautioned that downside risks remain, especially if the US-China trade war escalates. Despite near-term weakness, Goldman anticipates a moderate demand-driven recovery in late 2025 into 2026.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Goldman’s aluminium downgrade reflects how industrial metals remain highly sensitive to trade policy shifts. Producers may avoid closures in the short term, but prolonged margin pressure could reshape the supply landscape.

Overcoming High Tariffs through Titanium Recycling Materials

DongA Special Metal (DASM) Homepage

Reducing Costs by Using Titanium Scrap in the Age of High Tariffs

Since Donald Trump's election, the world has entered an era of high tariffs. In response to recent U.S. tariff policies, global companies have faced significant challenges in sourcing raw materials. This is especially true in the steel industry, which is struggling due to the influx of low-priced Chinese products. Companies in this sector are working tirelessly to secure materials and reduce costs in various ways.

The tariffs on Chinese materials have further diminished the competitiveness of U.S. companies in the domestic market. In addition, a predicted global industrial slowdown adds to the challenges. To remain competitive, companies must prioritize cost reduction. However, finding viable alternatives in this high-tariff era remains a struggle.

The situation is different in the specialty steel sector. Unlike common materials such as iron, stainless steel, and copper, which are largely controlled by China, the use of scrap offers limited cost savings in these areas. However, specialty alloys like nickel and titanium provide a significant opportunity for cost reduction. By using scrap materials in the production of these alloys, companies can achieve a 15-20% reduction in costs, making it a highly effective strategy for cutting expenses.

Scrap → Feedstock

Global Companies and the Shift Toward Scrap Use

Despite these benefits, the use of scrap in the specialty alloys sector remains relatively low, with only a few companies with advanced technology utilizing it. The main reason for this is a lack of understanding of its practical benefits. Integrating scrap into the production process can lead to substantial improvements in efficiency and simplification of operations, which naturally reduces costs. However, many companies fail to recognize these advantages, often due to a lack of experience.

To truly cut costs, increasing scrap usage is crucial. Additionally, the tariff situation has so far spared scrap materials from high taxes, making their use even more attractive. The growing need for scrap is becoming increasingly apparent as industries look for ways to cut costs and avoid tariff impacts. This raises the question: where can companies source specialty metal scrap?

South Korea Sees the Rise of a Scrap Specialization Recycling Company

To address these challenges, a specialty metal recycling company based in South Korea(DongA Special Metal) has developed technology to enhance scrap usage. This company has been recycling specialty alloys such as nickel, titanium, and zirconium for years, producing titanium sponge substitutes and feedstock for export to global markets. They offer a comprehensive service that includes advising on scrap alloy usage and ensuring that the final product meets industry standards.

Ti Sponge VS Ti Cobble

The company has particularly focused on titanium, a material known for its strength and elasticity. They break down titanium and process it into titanium sponge substitutes. This method not only makes titanium more affordable but also reduces the carbon emissions associated with titanium sponge production, which has become a significant concern in the metals industry. This innovation addresses both cost reduction and environmental challenges, making it an ideal solution for companies aiming to enter the U.S. market in the high-tariff era.

In recent years, the U.S. has increasingly turned to scrap use in the metals industry. In 2021, all U.S. titanium sponge plants were shut down due to environmental concerns, and the country now relies entirely on imports. As the use of scrap and alloys continues to grow, it’s clear that companies looking to stay competitive must address material sourcing challenges to succeed in the future.

DongA Special Metal Scrap Recycling Process

Fastmarkets Ferroalloys Asia 2025 Positions Bangkok as Key Global Hub for Ferroalloy Trade

Fastmarkets Ferroalloys Asia 2025

India, China, and South Korea Showcase Market Strength as Global Players Tackle Tariffs and Sustainability Goals

The Fastmarkets Ferroalloys Asia Conference 2025 concluded in Bangkok with more than 800 global industry professionals in attendance. Held from April 8–10, this flagship event solidified its role as Asia’s largest ferroalloy trading platform, focusing on trade flows, tariffs, sustainability, and supply chain strategies.

This year’s conference drew key stakeholders from across the ferroalloy value chain. Attendees participated in active deal-making, high-level panels, and targeted networking—further reinforcing Asia’s position as the world’s dominant ferroalloy market.

Indian and Chinese Firms Expand Regional Influence Amid Tariff Pressures

Ferroalloy giants from India and China made a strong statement at the event. Companies such as BFCL, INDIANO, MORTX, BERRY ALLOYS, MTALX, and CCMA attended as sponsors. Their presence underlined a strategic shift to deepen market penetration in Asia while mitigating challenges from recent U.S. tariff policies.

By sponsoring the event, these companies emphasized regional alliances and adaptability to global trade shifts. With India and China playing leading roles in global ferroalloy production and exports, their efforts at Fastmarkets Asia 2025 signal a robust push for market resilience and growth.

Producing Ferro-Titanium in Korea

South Korea’s Dong-A Special Metal stood out by announcing its expansion in Ferro-Titanium and Ferro-Titanium Powder production. The company uses eco-friendly pretreatment methods to manufacture high-quality products, gaining attention as one of Korea’s few domestic Ferro-Titanium producers.

This development strengthens Korea’s presence in specialty ferroalloys and aligns with rising global demand for lightweight, corrosion-resistant alloys in aerospace and defense sectors.

Focus on Asia’s Role in a Changing Global Alloy Market

The conference underscored Asia’s growing dominance in ferroalloys, especially through China and India. Fastmarkets emphasized this trend, with expert panels addressing topics like supply chain optimization, carbon reduction, and long-term demand outlook. As trade dynamics evolve, Asia is becoming the central pivot for pricing and policy trends in the ferroalloy industry.

TheMetalnomist continues to track how international conferences like these shape global metal market strategies and investment priorities.

Tariffs Impact on Boeing and Airlines Draws Sharp Criticism from Beijing

Boeing

China Highlights Supply Chain Disruption and Market Instability

China has sharply criticized the tariffs’ impact on Boeing and airlines, citing major disruptions to global aviation and trade. The Ministry of Commerce (Mofcom) stated this week that both Chinese carriers and Boeing have “suffered greatly” due to the U.S. administration’s tariff policies. The trade dispute, rooted in escalating tit-for-tat measures, has strained supply chains and undermined cross-border investment.

U.S.-China Trade War Continues to Cloud Aerospace Outlook

In response to recent reports, Mofcom commented on Boeing’s return of three 737 MAX aircraft that were originally bound for Chinese buyers. China has raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%, prompting retaliatory measures from the U.S., including duties as high as 145%. These moves have distorted normal trade flows and created an uncertain environment for international aerospace collaboration.

Boeing Signals Flexibility Amid Shifting Geopolitical Winds

Boeing announced it may re-market jets intended for China, citing strong global demand despite short-term disruptions. The company remains optimistic about long-term demand and awaits potential policy changes from Beijing. Meanwhile, China urged Washington to restore predictability and stability in trade relations, emphasizing continued support for bilateral commercial cooperation.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The tariffs’ impact on Boeing and airlines underscores the vulnerability of aerospace to geopolitical risk. For global supply chains, predictability is critical—without it, aircraft manufacturing and trade may face growing delays and uncertainty.

Trump Accuses China of Violating Preliminary Trade Deal

U.S, China

Trump Accuses China of Violating Preliminary Trade Deal

US President Donald Trump has accused China of breaching a preliminary trade agreement reached in Geneva earlier this month. During a White House press briefing, Trump claimed that Beijing "violated a big part of the agreement," though he provided no specifics. US trade officials and aides also offered no documentation or clarification, raising uncertainty over the deal’s durability.

The Geneva pact aimed to temporarily pause 125–145% tariffs, allowing limited breathing room for both sides until 10 August. However, exemptions remain narrow. For instance, China’s tariffs on US crude oil and LNG are still too high to restore meaningful trade flows. On the other hand, US propane exports could rebound due to lower effective tariffs and exemptions for key petrochemical feedstocks.

New Tariff Measures and Export Restrictions Stir Controversy

The trade dispute has evolved beyond traditional tariffs. The US Department of Commerce recently required NGL exporters to apply for export licenses for ethane and butane bound for China. The department cited concerns over dual-use military applications. Meanwhile, the Trump administration announced new fees of $50/net ton on Chinese ship operators and $18/net ton on Chinese-built ships, effective this fall.

Adding further strain, China lifted some tech export restrictions, particularly for cloud services, while maintaining limits on rare earth exports to the US. These minerals are crucial for defense and electronics, making the move highly strategic.

Legal Challenges Undermine Tariff Legitimacy

A major legal complication emerged when the US Court of International Trade ruled that Trump’s tariffs under the 1978 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful. The court concluded the law does not grant unlimited presidential authority over tariffs. Although a federal appeals court has stayed the ruling, the incident casts doubt on Trump’s long-term tariff strategy.

Trump criticized the idea of seeking Congressional approval for tariffs, stating it would involve "hundreds of people" and months of delay. Despite legal headwinds, Trump continues to favor unilateral action and hinted at resolving disputes directly with President Xi Jinping in the near future.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Trump’s renewed hardline stance on China—just weeks after a ceasefire—highlights the fragile nature of trade diplomacy. While tariffs offer political leverage, legal and structural challenges are mounting. Industrial stakeholders must prepare for an environment where regulatory unpredictability, rather than open markets, defines global trade norms.