Panama copper mine reopening tests Cobre Panama’s future

Panama Copper Mine

Panama copper mine reopening has moved to the top of President José Raúl Mulino’s agenda. He links Cobre Panama directly to national growth and fiscal stability. The mine once delivered roughly 5% of Panama’s GDP and about 1.5% of global copper supply. Therefore Panama copper mine reopening has become a strategic priority for the new administration.

Cobre Panama is a $10bn open pit complex operated by Canada’s First Quantum Minerals. It lies in Donoso and previously generated around 40% of First Quantum’s annual revenue. However, the supreme court closed the project after ruling its long term mining contract unconstitutional in 2023.

The government has now tasked industry minister Julio Molto with reopening the mine through direct negotiations. First Quantum previously sought $20bn in compensation but says it still prefers a negotiated solution. As a result, Panama copper mine reopening depends on rebuilding trust while avoiding renewed legal confrontation or international arbitration.

Economic stakes of Panama copper mine reopening

Panama copper mine reopening carries major implications for growth, employment, and the country’s external balances. The mine anchors a wider ecosystem of contractors, logistics providers, and service companies around the project. Therefore a restart could quickly support fiscal revenues, foreign exchange inflows, and investor confidence in Panama’s policy direction.

For the global copper market, Cobre Panama’s return would reintroduce significant tonnage at a sensitive time. Energy transition projects are pushing copper demand higher while new large scale mines remain limited. Consequently, any delay or failure in Panama copper mine reopening will influence prices, contract negotiations, and supply planning.

Political and environmental risks around Cobre Panama

Despite the economic upside, political and environmental risks around Cobre Panama remain substantial. Powerful unions, environmental groups, and opposition parties previously mobilised nationwide protests against the project. They criticised the contract terms, questioned revenue sharing, and highlighted potential damage to forests and coastal ecosystems.

Meanwhile, the court ruling and public anger triggered a broader debate about mining’s role in Panama’s development model. The government now promises to negotiate without intermediaries, which may speed decisions but deepen mistrust among critics. Therefore any roadmap for Cobre Panama must combine stronger environmental safeguards, transparency, and genuine community consultation.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Panama’s handling of Cobre Panama will shape perceptions of sovereign risk across smaller resource dependent economies. Investors and copper buyers should track not only production timelines but also contract design, oversight quality, and social acceptance. If Panama aligns economic needs with tighter governance, the mine could reemerge as a model for transition era projects.

First Quantum Copper Output Falls But Cobre Panama Stockpile Lifts 2026 Guidance

First Quantum

First Quantum copper output declined in the first quarter as lower production from the company’s Zambian mines offset a sharp increase in nickel output. The Canadian miner produced 96,469t of copper in January-March, down 3.2% from a year earlier.

First Quantum copper output was weaker at both Kansanshi and Sentinel, the company’s two main operating copper assets in Zambia. Copper sales also fell by 11.7% to 90,049t because of shipment timing and inventory replenishment at Kansanshi after stronger sales in the previous quarter.

First Quantum copper output guidance for 2026 was raised despite the weaker first-quarter result. The company increased its full-year copper production outlook to 405,000-475,000t after Panama approved the processing and export of stockpiled ore at the closed Cobre Panama mine.

The approval changes the near-term production picture, but it does not reopen Cobre Panama. The mine remains closed after protests and a court ruling in 2023 found its operating contract unconstitutional.

Zambian Mines Weaken as Grades and Recoveries Pressure Output

Kansanshi produced 45,345t of copper in the first quarter, down 2.6% from a year earlier. The decline reflects the challenge of maintaining output from mature large-scale copper operations.

Sentinel produced 45,252t of copper, down 2.4% on the year. Lower feed grades and weaker recoveries reduced output at the mine.

These results show how copper supply can weaken even when operating assets remain active. Mine grades, recovery rates, mill performance and shipment timing all influence quarterly supply.

The weaker sales figure also matters. First Quantum sold 90,049t of copper in the quarter, below production, because of shipment timing and the need to rebuild Kansanshi inventories.

For copper markets, Zambia remains important because it is one of Africa’s key producing regions. Stable output from Kansanshi and Sentinel supports global supply at a time when buyers are increasingly focused on secure copper sources outside more politically sensitive routes.

First Quantum’s nickel production moved in the opposite direction. Output rose by 165.4% on the year to 12,340t, supported by higher grades and recoveries.

The nickel increase improves the company’s diversified metals profile. But copper remains the strategic core of First Quantum’s business and the main driver of market attention.

Cobre Panama Stockpile Approval Adds Near-Term Copper Supply

First Quantum raised its 2026 copper production guidance after Panama approved the removal, processing and export of stockpiled ore at Cobre Panama. The site will process around 38mn t of stockpiled ore containing about 70,000t of recoverable copper.

This approval gives First Quantum a short-term supply and cash-flow opportunity from material already mined before the shutdown. It does not involve new mining, drilling or blasting.

Cobre Panama was one of the largest copper mines in the Americas before its closure. It produced 331,000t of copper in its final year, equal to about 1.5% of global supply.

The mine’s shutdown removed a major source of copper supply and had a severe impact on First Quantum’s revenue base. The stockpile processing approval partly eases that impact, but only for material already on site.

The long-term future of Cobre Panama remains unresolved. Any return to mining would require a new political and legal settlement with Panama.

This distinction is important for copper markets. Stockpile processing can add near-term units, but it does not restore the full mine or solve the broader supply loss from the 2023 closure.

First Quantum kept its 2026 nickel production guidance unchanged at 30,000-40,000t. That suggests the main guidance change is tied directly to Cobre Panama’s approved stockpile treatment.

For investors and copper buyers, the company’s outlook now depends on two tracks. Zambia must stabilise operating performance, while Panama determines how much value can be recovered from Cobre Panama without reopening the mine.

The Metalnomist Commentary

First Quantum’s guidance increase is a stockpile story, not a full Cobre Panama recovery story. The approval adds useful copper units, but the real strategic question remains whether Panama and First Quantum can ever rebuild a legal framework for long-term mining.

Cobre Panama Stockpiled Ore Approval Gives First Quantum Limited Copper Recovery Path

First Quantum

Cobre Panama stockpiled ore processing has been approved by Panama’s government, giving First Quantum Minerals a limited route to recover copper from material mined before the project was shut down. The approval allows removal, processing and export of stockpiled ore from the closed copper mine.

The site will process about 38mn t of stockpiled ore containing roughly 70,000t of recoverable copper. First Quantum said the work will use existing crushers, conveyors and flotation circuits, with initial processing running at about one-third of nameplate capacity.

Cobre Panama stockpiled ore processing does not restart mining. The company said the work will not involve new mining, drilling or blasting, making the approval a controlled processing decision rather than a full mine reopening.

Stockpile Treatment Reduces Environmental and Economic Pressure

The approval gives Panama and First Quantum a practical way to manage material already sitting at the site. Processing the stockpiled ore could reduce environmental risks linked to long-term storage while generating royalties and other payments for Panama.

First Quantum plans to spend about $250mn on preparation, mainly to rebuild inventories and supply chains. The company is also rehiring about 1,000 workers, raising the site workforce to around 3,000 across processing, maintenance, environmental work and logistics.

The move follows earlier permits to ship stranded copper concentrate and restart a 300MW coal plant at the site. Panama linked these steps to easing the economic impact of the mine’s closure.

Copper Supply Impact Remains Limited Without Mine Restart

Cobre Panama was a major global copper asset before its closure in 2023. The mine produced 331,000t of copper in its final year, equal to about 1.5% of global supply, before protests and a supreme court ruling forced the shutdown.

The closure removed close to 40% of First Quantum’s revenue, increasing the company’s dependence on copper operations in Zambia and smaller nickel and gold output. Processing Cobre Panama stockpiled ore will provide some near-term value, but it cannot replace the output of a fully operating mine.

First Quantum dropped a $20bn arbitration claim last year to allow talks with Panama’s government to resume. However, Panama has made clear that stockpile treatment does not resolve the mine’s long-term future. Any return to mining would require a new political and legal settlement.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Panama’s decision is a compromise between environmental management, economic recovery and political caution. Cobre Panama stockpiled ore processing may release some copper, but the real supply question remains whether one of the world’s major copper mines can ever return under a new legal framework.

Panama Canal Ports Takeover Raises New Geopolitical Risk for Global Supply Chains

Panama Canal Ports

Panama canal ports have entered a new phase of geopolitical scrutiny after Panama formally took over the Cristobal and Balboa terminals. The move follows a supreme court ruling that cancelled concessions held by a Hong Kong-based operator and reshaped control at both entrances to the canal.

The Panama canal ports are strategically important because they sit on the Atlantic and Pacific sides of one of the world’s most critical trade corridors. For metals, mining, energy, and manufacturing supply chains, the canal remains a key logistics route linking the Americas, Asia, and Europe.

Panama’s government said the takeover will allow uninterrupted operations while it prepares a tender within 18 months for a long-term operator. APM Terminals will operate Balboa on the Pacific side, while MSC will run Cristobal on the Atlantic side.

Port Control Becomes a Strategic Trade Issue

The Panama port takeover reflects how infrastructure ownership has become a core industrial policy issue. Ports, canals, shipping terminals, and logistics hubs are no longer viewed as neutral assets. They are increasingly tied to national security, supply chain resilience, and geopolitical alignment.

CK Hutchison’s subsidiary PPC had managed the Cristobal and Balboa terminals under a 25-year contract renewed in 2021. However, Panama’s supreme court ruled that the operating terms violated the constitution and were no longer valid. CK Hutchison called the takeover unlawful.

The dispute also carries a wider geopolitical dimension. The US has repeatedly argued that CK Hutchison’s role at the ports created Chinese influence over canal logistics. Panama rejected claims that the canal had fallen under Beijing’s control, while stressing that the Panama Canal Authority operates as an autonomous agency.

Canal Logistics Remain Critical for Metals and Industrial Trade

Canal logistics are essential for global commodity flows because many industrial supply chains depend on predictable maritime routing. Copper concentrates, aluminum products, energy materials, steel inputs, manufactured goods, and mining equipment all rely on stable port and shipping networks.

The immediate operational risk appears contained because Panama has appointed APM Terminals and MSC to keep the ports running. However, the longer-term tender process will be closely watched by shipping groups, traders, manufacturers, and governments. Future operators will influence cost, reliability, and strategic confidence around the canal corridor.

The dispute also shows how global infrastructure transactions face stronger political review. BlackRock’s planned purchase of Cristobal, Balboa, and other terminals from CK Hutchison had already been delayed amid objections from China. That delay underlines how ports are now contested assets in the wider competition for supply chain control.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Panama canal ports dispute shows that logistics infrastructure is becoming as strategic as raw materials themselves. For industrial companies, the lesson is clear: supply chain risk now includes port ownership, political alignment, and maritime chokepoint governance.

Panama Rejects Trump’s Demand for Free US Canal Access

Panama president, Jose Raul Mulino

Tensions Rise Over Control of Strategic Trade Routes

Panama's president, Jose Raul Mulino, firmly rejected US president Donald Trump's demand for free US military and commercial access through the Panama Canal. Trump, during an address on 26 April, asserted that the US deserves free passage, citing America's historic support in the canal’s construction.

However, Mulino clarified that the Panama Canal Authority (ACP), an autonomous entity, solely governs transit operations and fees. “The neutrality treaty and the organic law of the Panama Canal regulate all ship transits,” he stated. Mulino emphasized that no alternative agreement exists that would permit such free access.

The US and Panama jointly managed the canal until it was officially handed over to Panama in 1999. Since then, Panama has independently operated the canal under international law.

Trump's Renewed Focus on Canal Control

Trump’s recent remarks align with his broader agenda of challenging Panama's ownership of the strategic waterway. He reiterated claims that China holds undue influence over the canal's operations, an accusation he made both before and after assuming office in January.

Earlier this month, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced Washington’s pursuit of an agreement for increased warship access through the canal. Currently, US shipping lines account for 74% of the cargo volume passing through the canal, followed by Chinese lines at 21%, according to the ACP.

Moreover, Trump declared that the US is “reclaiming” the canal following BlackRock's announcement of plans to purchase two ports flanking the canal from Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison. Yet, Mulino denounced Trump’s claim as entirely false, defending Panama’s sovereignty and national dignity.

Rising Geopolitical Tensions

Meanwhile, Beijing expressed discontent over CK Hutchison’s intended sale, criticizing the move as a "betrayal of Chinese interests." China’s government has confirmed it is closely monitoring the situation, signaling potential diplomatic friction.

The battle over the Panama Canal symbolizes broader tensions in global trade, sovereignty, and geopolitical influence, with the US, Panama, and China all holding strong, conflicting interests.

First Quantum Opens Dialogue on Panama Copper Mine Restart

First Quantum Minerals

Canadian miner First Quantum Minerals has suspended arbitration proceedings, clearing the path for renewed talks with Panama.

Arbitration Dropped as Mine Talks Resume

First Quantum Minerals has withdrawn its international arbitration request regarding the shutdown of the Cobre Panama copper mine, one of the Americas' largest. This move fulfills a condition set by Panama’s new president Jose Raul Mulino, who demanded the halt before any negotiations could begin.

The mine was shut down in November 2023, following public protests and a supreme court ruling that nullified the company’s operating contract. With this latest development, both parties are poised to revisit the mine’s future—critical to Panama’s economy.

Mine’s Closure Hits Panama’s Economy Hard

The mine accounted for 5% of Panama’s GDP and 40% of First Quantum’s revenue, underlining its economic significance. In 2023, it produced 331,000 tonnes of copper, about 1.5% of global supply.

President Mulino emphasized the social and financial impact of the shutdown, noting job losses and unpaid suppliers. First Quantum had initially sought $20 billion in compensation through arbitration but is now focused on negotiation.

Still, Mulino warned that talks will be difficult and must prioritize Panama’s national interest.

The Metalnomist Commentary

First Quantum’s decision signals a pragmatic shift in strategy, favoring political engagement over legal standoff. Reopening Cobre Panama could help stabilize global copper markets and revive confidence in long-term resource agreements across Latin America.

Panama Copper Mine Coal Plant to Add 300MW to National Grid

First Quantum

Panama’s Panama copper mine coal plant will add 300MW to the grid following recommissioning. The Panama copper mine coal plant will source coal imports from Colombia and target a fourth-quarter 2025 restart. As a result, the Panama copper mine coal plant strengthens national power capacity amid mining uncertainty.

Recommissioning links a shuttered mine to grid stability

Panama plans to channel the plant’s output to state-owned Etesa’s grid. Previously, the facility powered First Quantum’s $10bn Cobre Panamá project. However, the supreme court ordered the mine closed in November 2023 after ruling the contract unconstitutional.

Cash flow from concentrate and power sales offsets costs

The restart plan coincides with exports of stranded copper concentrate. Panama authorized shipment of 121,000t of concentrate, with the final lot expected shortly. Therefore, proceeds from power and concentrate sales will offset preservation and safety costs approved in May.

Panama positions the restart as part of a broader reset with First Quantum. In April, the company dropped international arbitration against the state. Meanwhile, recommissioning and grid sales could support future restart prospects at the site.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Recommissioning creates near-term baseload while policy discussions continue. Yet coal-sourced power raises decarbonization questions for a copper-centric economy. Watch Etesa dispatch patterns and any mine-related rulings for signals on long-term energy and copper supply.

First Quantum Panama copper stockpile moves toward processing under Mulino plan

First Quantum, Panama copper

First Quantum Panama copper stockpile processing could restart activity at Cobre Panama without reopening the mine. The company says it still awaits formal government approval. It also says stockpile work would not restart mining operations.

First Quantum Panama copper stockpile volumes reached about 38 million tonnes before the shutdown in late 2023. The company estimates the stockpile could yield about 70,000 tonnes of copper concentrate. It says processing could begin about three months after official notice.

Stockpile processing could ease near-term copper concentrate tightness

Stockpile processing could add incremental copper units to global concentrate flows. However, the volumes remain small versus annual mine supply. As a result, the market impact would be more regional than global.

Panama policy clarity will determine execution and timing. Meanwhile, any processing plan must manage logistics, permitting, and community scrutiny. Therefore, operators will likely prioritize predictability over speed.

First Quantum production outlook shifts as Zambia maintenance takes focus

First Quantum lowered 2026 copper guidance as it prepares maintenance at its Sentinel mine. The work includes thickener feed well upgrades and a new tailings pipeline. Increased ore hardness at Kansanshi also pressures throughput planning.

First Quantum reported 2025 copper production of 396,000 tonnes, down 8.1% year on year. Meanwhile, the company set 2026 guidance at 375,000 to 435,000 tonnes. Nickel output fell 4.1% to 23,200 tonnes after Ravensthorpe moved into care and maintenance.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This stockpile pathway offers a pragmatic compromise for Panama and First Quantum. However, it will not settle the long-term debate over Cobre Panama’s operating model. The real value lies in rebuilding trust through transparent, verifiable controls.

Panama copper mine shipping stranded ore after export approval

Panama Copper Mine

Panama copper mine shipping stranded ore received approval, and exports have started. First Quantum Minerals is exporting 121,000 t of copper concentrate from the site. The mine was ordered closed in late 2023 after a court ruling.

Shipments will follow preservation and environmental protocols ordered by the industry ministry. The mine produced 331,000 t in 2023, five percent below 2022. The $10bn complex supplied 1.5% of global copper output.

Export approval and economic stakes

The project contributed about 40% of company revenue before shutdown. It accounted for about 5% of Panama’s economy. Therefore, incremental exports could ease fiscal and corporate pressures.

Legal reset opens path to negotiations

First Quantum dropped arbitration in April to meet a presidential condition. As a result, both sides can now discuss a potential future for the mine. Meanwhile, Panama copper mine shipping stranded ore does not itself signal an operational restart.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This controlled export unlocks value while preserving negotiating space. Watch environmental compliance, community engagement, and any roadmap for phased recommissioning.

Panama's Mulino Secures Future of Closed Copper Mine

Panama's Closed Copper Mine

Panama's newly inaugurated president, Jose Raul Mulino, has outlined plans to temporarily reopen the country's Canadian-owned copper mine, which ceased operations in November, with the intent to "permanently close it in a definitive, safe, and positive manner." This decision hinges upon the findings of a government-commissioned environmental study of the facility owned by First Quantum Minerals.

Mulino's announcement marks a potential milestone in the shutdown of one of the largest copper mines in the Americas, despite previous statements from First Quantum Minerals expressing interest in reopening discussions with the new government.

"We will collaborate with any incoming administration," stated Robert Harding, Chairman of First Quantum, earlier this year. "Our goal is to see this mine operational again."

The temporary reopening of the $10 billion open-pit mine aims to facilitate the government and the company in managing the facility's maintenance costs and addressing the 120,000 tonnes of copper left on-site when operations ceased, Mulino explained.

First Quantum Minerals has not publicly responded to Mulino's recent statements.

Panama's closure of the mine followed a Supreme Court ruling in November deeming First Quantum's contract unconstitutional. The company is pursuing $20 billion in compensation through international arbitration but expresses a preference for resolving the matter through negotiation with the government.

Under the new government's direction, Panama will conduct "a rigorous environmental audit of the mine to assess the true condition of the site, its surroundings, rivers, fauna, flora, and potential environmental risks, whether the mine remains open or closed," Mulino emphasized.

"The Supreme Court's decision must be honored," President Mulino affirmed. He added, "The dormant mine poses potential environmental hazards that we must preemptively address. Inaction is not a viable option."

According to official data, the mine accounted for approximately 5% of Panama's economy. It produced 331,000 tonnes of copper in the year prior to its closure, constituting 5% less than the total output for 2022, as reported by First Quantum Minerals.

Cobre Panama Arbitration Hearing Delayed Until 2026 Amidst Operational Challenges

First Quantum Minerals

Canadian mining company First Quantum Minerals has announced a delay in its international arbitration case concerning its Cobre Panama copper mine. The case, initially set for September 2025, has been rescheduled to February 2026 following a request for an extension by Panamanian officials. This delay comes as the company faces ongoing challenges related to the closure of its Panamanian operations, which have significantly impacted its copper production.

Cobre Panama Mine Faces Legal and Operational Setbacks

First Quantum's Cobre Panama mine, one of the largest copper operations in the Americas, halted production in November 2023. The shutdown followed a popular uprising in Panama, protesting the environmental impacts of the mine. The country's top court ruled that the mine's operating contract was unconstitutional, further escalating the dispute.

In response, First Quantum appealed the ruling to the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) and had initially scheduled a hearing for September 2025. However, the arbitration panel delayed the hearing to February 2026 due to requests from Panamanian officials, as disclosed in the company's recent earnings report.

Global Copper Production Declines

First Quantum's global copper production saw a significant dip in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a 30% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. The company cited lower grades at its Sentinel mine in Zambia and the unexpected closure of the Cobre Panama mine as the key reasons for the decline. As a result, the company produced 111,600 metric tonnes of copper, down from the previous year's quarter.

In contrast, First Quantum experienced growth at its Kansanshi copper-gold mine in Zambia. The mine saw a 57% increase in copper production during the fourth quarter, producing 48,000 tonnes. The expansion of the sulphide processing line, set to be completed by mid-2025, is expected to further increase output at Kansanshi.

Nickel Production Hits a Low Point

In addition to its copper setbacks, First Quantum's nickel production also faced challenges. The company produced just 3,720 tonnes of nickel in the final quarter of 2024, a stark decline from the 7,440 tonnes produced during the same period in 2023. The company attributed this decrease to issues at its Enterprise nickel mine in Zambia, where weathering and fault line alterations affected production volumes.

Despite these challenges, First Quantum reported a profit of $99 million for the fourth quarter, although this was down from $108 million in the same quarter of the previous year.

Panama Approves Third Canal Lake Project to Tackle Droughts and Secure Waterway Future

Panama Canal Authority

$2 Billion Indio River Lake to Boost Resilience Against Climate Shocks

The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has approved a $2 billion project to construct a third lake, aiming to strengthen the canal’s resilience against severe droughts. This new dammed lake, spanning 500 km² on the Indio River, will support the existing Gatun and Alajuela lakes. Recent droughts, intensified by the El Nino weather pattern, forced Panama to drastically cut canal transits in 2023 and 2024.

Project Details, Timeline, and Ongoing Challenges

Building the Indio River lake will take five years, offering water security for at least the next 50 years, according to the ACP. However, the canal may still face at least one more period of transit restrictions due to drought before the improvements are fully realized. The canal usually sees 36 transits per day, but this fell to 22 during last year’s crisis. A rebound in rainfall since July has allowed the ACP to restore transit levels, though the long-term threat from climate volatility remains.

Legal and Social Hurdles Complicate Expansion

Previously, legal restrictions blocked new reservoirs until Panama’s supreme court expanded the canal authority’s jurisdiction to include the Indio River basin. The project now faces resistance from about 2,500 local residents, mainly farmers, who oppose forced relocation and demand fair compensation. Intense negotiations continue, with rights organizations backing the residents’ cause. Meanwhile, geopolitical tension has emerged after former US president Donald Trump claimed the canal is controlled by China. Panama’s president, Jose Raul Mulino, has reaffirmed that the Canal Authority—an autonomous government agency—manages the waterway, not any foreign entity.

Panama Approves Copper Export Amid Mine Closure Talks

First Quantum Minerals

Donoso site remains shuttered as government weighs national interest and economic impact

Panama has approved the export of 120,000 tonnes of copper concentrate from the Donoso mine, owned by Canada’s First Quantum Minerals. President Jose Raul Mulino announced the decision, calling it a step toward discussing the mine’s future, which has significant implications for Panama’s economy.

Copper export approved to ease economic strain

The Donoso mine, one of the largest in the Americas, was shut in 2023 after Panama’s Supreme Court ruled the company’s contract unconstitutional. The mine previously contributed 5% to Panama’s GDP, producing 331,000 tonnes of copper in its final year. President Mulino emphasized the economic loss: “That 5% we threw out the window in a single day — everyone thinks it is a statistic. But we are feeling it.”

First Quantum said proceeds from the export would finance safety and preservation operations at the site. The company also expressed readiness to engage in talks: “We reaffirm our willingness to discussing and finding the best solution… for the well-being of the country and all Panamanians.”

Future of $10bn project remains uncertain

Despite authorizing the copper shipment, President Mulino cautioned that discussions about the mine’s future would be complex. “The matter of the mine requires great responsibility and must be guided by our national interests,” he said. The closure has increased unemployment and left local suppliers unpaid.

Opposition from environmental groups, trade unions, and NGOs triggered the mine’s shutdown last year. These groups criticized both the environmental impact and the terms granted to First Quantum under the prior administration. The government now faces the challenge of balancing economic recovery with strong public resistance.

Panama's Decision on Copper Mine Set for 2025

First Quantum

Panama will make a crucial decision in 2025 regarding the future of a significant copper mine owned by Canada-based First Quantum Minerals, which was shut down in November. The mine, located in Donoso district, Colon province, was ordered closed by Panama’s supreme court, which ruled that the company's contract was unconstitutional. Environment minister Juan Carlos Navarro confirmed that discussions on handling the extracted copper concentrate, roughly 120,000 tons, are underway, with decisions expected soon.

Environmental Concerns and Future Plans

The $10 billion project is one of the largest copper mines in the Americas, and while it remains closed, a government-approved safety and maintenance plan is expected soon. Navarro emphasized the importance of transparency in deciding the mine’s fate, promising a complete audit and consultation with the Panamanian people in 2025.

The extracted copper concentrate must be exported due to the environmental risks posed by toxic gases and leachates, according to Navarro. First Quantum Minerals plans to sell the stored concentrate to fund mine preservation efforts. However, industry minister Julio Molto stressed that the government will not engage in negotiations with the company while it pursues international arbitration for compensation, seeking redress through both the International Court of Arbitration and under the Canada-Panama Free Trade Agreement.

First Quantum Minerals Reports Sharp Decline in Q2 Copper Output

First Quantum Minerals experienced a significant drop in copper production in the second quarter, largely due to the continued suspension of its Cobre Panama operation. Despite efforts to boost production in Africa, the miner's global copper output fell by 45% to 102,700 metric tonnes compared to the same period last year, with copper sales also dropping by nearly 47% to 94,630 tonnes.

The Cobre Panama mine, one of the largest copper mines in the Americas, was shut down late last year following a ruling by Panama's supreme court that deemed the firm's contract unconstitutional. The newly-elected government has expressed intentions to permanently close the $10 billion facility but has indicated potential discussions on reopening the complex if First Quantum withdraws from international arbitration seeking compensation from the government.

In its quarterly results, First Quantum stated that arbitration was not the preferred outcome and reiterated its commitment to negotiating with Panama's new government.

Meanwhile, the company's Kansanshi mine in Zambia saw a 20% increase in copper production, reaching 41,500 tonnes in the second quarter. Production at the Sentinel mine, also in Zambia, remained relatively stable with a slight decrease of less than 1% to 53,590 tonnes.

First Quantum's CEO, Tristan Pascall, noted that both the Kansanshi and Sentinel mines are well-positioned for the remainder of the year. The company also reported a 24% increase in nickel production, with output rising to 7,400 tonnes and nickel sales up 30% to 7,645 tonnes.

Despite these efforts, the company reported a $46 million loss for the quarter, compared to a $93 million profit in the same period last year. However, First Quantum's full-year 2024 guidance remains unchanged, with expected copper production between 370,000 and 420,000 tonnes.

First Quantum Raises 2024 Copper Guidance on Kansanshi Expansion

First Quantum

Canadian miner First Quantum Minerals has revised its 2024 copper production guidance to a higher midpoint, largely driven by expected gains from the Kansanshi mine in Zambia. The company now forecasts annual copper output of 400,000-420,000 metric tonnes (t), compared to its earlier range of 370,000-420,000t.

Key Adjustments in Guidance

• Kansanshi Mine: Copper production forecast increased to 155,000-165,000t (previously 130,000-150,000t) due to the anticipated commissioning of the S3 expansion in the fourth quarter. The project includes additional concentrator capacity and new semi-autogenous grinding and ball mills.
• Trident-Sentinel Mine: Production guidance revised downward to 220,000-230,000t (from 220,000-250,000t) due to Zambia's ongoing energy crisis.

Total nickel production guidance remains steady at 22,000-25,000t, while the Cobre Panama mine remains offline.

3Q Performance Highlights

• Copper Output: Third-quarter copper production fell 48% year-on-year to 116,088t, primarily due to the lack of output from Cobre Panama. However, production increased 13% quarter-on-quarter.
• Nickel Production: Output at the Trident-Enterprise facility tripled year-on-year to 4,827t, following its first commercial sales earlier in 2024. However, sequential production was 21% lower due to reduced grades and a 9-day power outage.

Financial Results

First Quantum reported a $53 million profit for the third quarter, down from $375 million in 2023. Revenues decreased 37% to $1.28 billion, reflecting the impact of lower copper production.

Outlook

With the Kansanshi expansion set to boost output and steady nickel production forecasts, First Quantum is positioned to navigate challenges, including Zambia's energy crisis and the continued closure of the Cobre Panama mine.

Fatal Incident Halts Operations at Kansanshi Copper Mine

First Quantum Minerals

First Quantum Minerals, a Canadian mining giant, has temporarily suspended operations at its Kansanshi copper mine in northwestern Zambia following a fatal accident. The company has not provided details on when operations will resume or how the suspension will impact copper production.

The Kansanshi mine, a significant copper producer, reported output of 41,500 metric tons in the second quarter of 2023, reflecting a nearly 20% increase from the same period last year. In 2022, the mine produced a total of 134,827 metric tons of copper and 68,970 ounces of gold, underscoring its critical role in First Quantum's global mining operations.

Impact on Global Copper Production

First Quantum operates several major mines worldwide, including the Cobre Panama mine in Panama and the Sentinel mine in Zambia. The company has forecasted copper production between 370,000 and 420,000 metric tons for 2024, but the suspension at Kansanshi raises questions about whether these targets can still be met. As the situation unfolds, the mining industry will be closely watching how the fatality affects both local and global copper supply chains.

Brazilian Ferro-Alloy Producer Ferbasa Sees Second-Quarter Production and Revenues Decline

Ferbasa, one of Brazil's leading ferro-alloy producers, reported a slight decrease in its second-quarter production, coupled with a significant drop in revenues. The company announced on Monday that it produced 74,750 metric tonnes of ferro-alloys in the second quarter of 2024, marking a 0.9% year-on-year decline and a 2.7% decrease from the previous quarter. The production of chromium alloys, which accounted for 50,067 tonnes of the total, fell by 0.3% compared to the same period in 2023.

Additionally, the production of silicon alloys dropped by 2.1% year-on-year to 24,683 tonnes. This decrease in production was mirrored by a sharp decline in revenues, which fell by 17% to 522 million reals ($95 million). The company attributed this revenue drop to lower trading volumes and a 13% decrease in the average dollar-weighted price of ferro-alloys in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year.

Ferbasa's sales volumes also suffered, with total ferro-alloy sales declining by 6.8% year-on-year to 63,400 tonnes in the second quarter. Domestic sales of chromium alloys plummeted by 21% to 24,770 tonnes, while international sales saw a modest increase of 7% to 16,176 tonnes. Similarly, domestic sales of silicon alloys decreased by 3.1% to 4,788 tonnes, but international sales grew by 7% to 17,682 tonnes.

The company faced additional challenges, including logistical difficulties, such as a shortage of containers and operational restrictions in key shipping routes like the Suez and Panama canals. These factors, combined with decreased demand from Brazil's domestic steel industry and recent protectionist measures in the U.S., have compounded the difficulties faced by Ferbasa.

Cochilco Copper Outlook 2025–2026: Supply Growth Meets Steady Demand

Cochilco

Supply edges higher as project pipeline improves

Cochilco copper outlook 2025–2026 signals modest mine growth. Global mine supply rises 0.5% in 2025 to 22.71mn t. Disruptions in the DRC, Indonesia, and Panama limit gains. However, 2026 supply increases 3.2% to 23.43mn t. New projects in Peru, Zambia, and Canada drive output. Additional lifts come from Indonesia, Mongolia, Canada, and Russia. Chile grows 1.5% in 2025 to 5.58mn t. Chile then advances 3% in 2026 to 5.75mn t. This supports the Cochilco copper outlook 2025–2026 narrative of gradual normalization.

Demand expands across Asia and the US

Cochilco copper outlook 2025–2026 also highlights resilient consumption. Global refined use gains 2.3% in 2025 to 26.38mn t. Demand then rises 2.4% in 2026 to 27mn t. China remains pivotal at 15.7mn t in 2025. China inches to 15.8mn t in 2026. Renewables and storage projects underpin Chinese demand. India accelerates with 7.5% growth in 2025. India grows 8.5% in 2026 on industrialization and infrastructure. The US adds support through manufacturing and grid investment. Therefore, secular demand remains intact despite cyclical noise.

Market balance stays technically in surplus. Cochilco sees a 51,000t surplus in 2025. The 2026 surplus reaches 65,000t. Last year posted a 67,000t surplus. Therefore, balance is fragile but not tight. Temporary disruptions could erase the cushion. Prices may face mild pressure from surplus. However, structural demand and geopolitics provide support. Cochilco keeps its price view at $9,480/t for 2025–2026.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Cochilco’s base case implies a soft surplus with limited slack. Execution at new mines will matter more than headlines. Watch Indian demand and concentrate availability to gauge upside risk.

First Quantum Anticipates Growth in Copper and Nickel Production

First Quantum

Stable Output in 2025 with Increase Expected by 2027

Canadian mining giant First Quantum has released projections for its copper and nickel production over the next few years, signaling stability in 2025 followed by notable increases in 2026 and 2027. Despite a downturn in production in 2024, the company is optimistic about its future output.

Detailed Production Forecasts and Strategic Investments

For 2025, First Quantum expects copper production to range between 380,000 and 440,000 metric tonnes, with forecasts rising to 390,000-450,000 tonnes in 2026, and reaching 430,000-490,000 tonnes in 2027. Nickel production is also projected to increase, with the company anticipating output of 15,000-25,000 tonnes in 2025, and stabilizing at 30,000-40,000 tonnes for 2026 and 2027.

Expansion Plans and Operational Challenges

The company plans significant capital investments, including $120 million for the expansion of smelter and tailings facilities at its Kansanshi operations and $115 million for mineral rights at the La Granja project within the next three years. Additionally, the ongoing closure of the Cobre Panama mine poses challenges, with 121,000 dry metric tonnes of copper concentrate currently stalled on site pending shipping approval from the Panamanian government.