European Stainless Steel Scrap Prices Rise on Stronger Mill Demand

Stainless Steel Scrap

European stainless steel scrap prices continued to rise this week as stronger mill demand and firmer downstream stainless steel prices supported the market. Both 304 and 316 stainless scrap grades moved higher on a week-on-week basis, reflecting tighter availability and improved buying interest.

European stainless steel scrap prices gained as mills returned to the market more actively for near-term production needs. The 304 stainless scrap solids cif Rotterdam assessment rose to €1,280-1,300/t, compared with €1,250-1,300/t the previous week.

European stainless steel scrap prices also benefited from stronger sentiment in finished stainless steel markets. Traders reported steady enquiries, higher bid levels, and better liquidity as producers moved to secure feedstock.

304 Stainless Scrap Gains as Mills Secure Feedstock

The 304 stainless scrap market strengthened as sustained buying interest pushed the lower end of the price range higher. Sellers were able to achieve improved prices, especially where prompt material was available.

Mill demand remained firm after the previous week’s sharp increase. Producers continued to procure scrap for near-term stainless steel production, creating a more competitive buying environment.

The rise in downstream flat stainless steel prices was a key driver. Stronger finished product pricing encouraged mills to step up scrap purchases after a period of more cautious buying.

316 Scrap Tightens on Limited Molybdenum-Bearing Supply

The 316 stainless scrap market also moved higher, with solids cif Rotterdam rising to €2,300-2,350/t from €2,280-2,330/t. The increase reflected tight availability of molybdenum-bearing scrap and steady mill purchasing interest.

Supply remained limited as some sellers held back material in expectation of further price gains. Others reported reduced availability of prompt tonnage, adding support to the market.

The tighter supply-demand balance strengthened pricing momentum across the stainless scrap complex. If downstream stainless steel prices remain firm, mills may continue to support higher scrap levels.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The stainless scrap market is showing how quickly feedstock prices can respond when mills regain confidence. The key risk is whether stronger finished stainless prices can hold long enough to sustain this buying cycle.

China’s policies are reshaping the global tungsten market

International Tungsten Industry Association

China’s tightening controls are fundamentally reshaping the global tungsten market and forcing buyers to rethink supply strategies. The global tungsten market now faces record prices, acute shortages outside China and rising geopolitical risk. As a result, investors and consumers across the global tungsten market are reassessing where to source and where to deploy capital.

China’s export controls on ammonium paratungstate (APT) and tungsten trioxide have sharply reduced export availability. At the same time, China’s surging appetite for tungsten concentrates has deepened shortages in Europe and other consuming regions. Therefore, tungsten prices have climbed to record levels in both APT and concentrate markets.

Meanwhile, import data show that China has become an aggressive buyer of concentrates, with first-half 2025 imports up 75pc year on year. This shift has pushed European and Japanese buyers to pursue alternative strategies, including buying concentrates instead of APT and intensifying recycling and non-Chinese partnerships.

Supply shock exposes vulnerabilities in the global tungsten market

China accounts for roughly 80pc of global APT supply and is now exporting far less material. Since Beijing expanded its export licence regime in February, APT exports dropped by 42pc in January-June 2025 versus a year earlier. Similarly, exports of tungsten trioxide fell by 76pc, leaving European consumers scrambling for units.

As a result, European APT prices have surged to fresh highs of $580–645/mtu duty unpaid Rotterdam. This represents a roughly 20pc increase since the start of the year and a jump from $550–600/mtu only days earlier. European tungsten concentrate prices have followed, rising to $500–520/dmtu in-warehouse Rotterdam, up nearly 30pc year on year.

Consequently, downstream consumers and midstream processors are re-engineering their sourcing models. Buyers are shifting from APT to concentrates where possible and are strengthening ties with alternative suppliers such as Vietnam. Meanwhile, Japanese buyers are boosting recycling rates and deepening co-operation with smelters in Germany and the US to reduce exposure to China.

However, traders find themselves squeezed as limited material flows directly to end users. Many trading houses are sidelined in spot activity and instead look to position themselves with long-term strategies and optionality. This structural shift underlines how fragile and concentrated current tungsten supply chains remain.

Uncertain outlook complicates investment in non-Chinese tungsten projects

On paper, today’s high prices and tightness strongly support new western tungsten projects. Yet equity and debt investors remain wary about whether current conditions in the global tungsten market are durable. Many tungsten mining projects are years from production, and investors fear that a shift in Chinese policy could quickly loosen fundamentals.

Geopolitics further clouds the investment case. The evolving US-China trade conflict and Europe’s position “in the middle” both influence tungsten flows but do not offer clear long-term signals. The US is accelerating efforts to secure domestic supply and support new mines, while Europe is also expected to attract investment as it seeks strategic autonomy. Still, long-term policy direction remains uncertain.

At the same time, Chinese producers stress that tightness reflects genuine domestic demand, not a short-term export tactic. China’s industrial strategy has moved from low-cost manufacturing toward high-value sectors such as photovoltaics. Forecasts suggest tungsten-wire demand from the PV sector could grow 40–50pc annually over the next five years, requiring around 8,000t of tungsten by 2027.

Therefore, it appears unlikely that China will import large volumes of concentrates only to flood European markets later. While China clearly has the ability to do so, conference participants see that scenario as implausible given the strength of its internal consumption. For now, the base case is high but stabilising prices, with the next few months likely to shape long-term procurement and investment decisions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s gradual pivot from “world’s tungsten factory” to voracious downstream consumer is forcing a structural repricing of risk. For miners and financiers outside China, the challenge is to move before the window closes, yet not overbuild into a market still governed by Beijing’s policy choices. Buyers who secure diversified, traceable tungsten supply now may find that this period of pain ultimately buys them strategic resilience.

Titanium Prices Hold as Inventory Drawdown Limits Spot Buying

Titanium

Titanium prices held steady in Europe and the US over the past month as mills, forgers and OEMs continued to rely on inventories instead of placing larger new orders. The market remained under pressure from surplus melt capacity and slower demand for standard-quality titanium used in airframe structures.

US 6Al 4V ingot prices stayed at $10-10.75/lb fob domestic producer, with some spot purchases still taking place near $10/lb. Mills kept offers broadly stable below $11/lb, although at least one producer quoted above that level for larger orders.

Titanium prices also remained flat in Europe, with 6Al 4V ingot assessed at $19.50-21.50/kg du Rotterdam. Forgers continued to work through high inventories of mill products before committing to new intermediate material purchases.

Aerospace Inventory Drawdown Keeps Pressure on Standard Titanium

Aerospace demand remained uneven as Boeing and Airbus continued inventory drawdowns. This primarily affected standard-quality titanium used in airframe structures, where consumption has been slower than in higher-specification applications.

Surplus melt capacity kept pressure on ingot prices. Market participants said lead times for basic Grade 5 ingot were around eight to 10 weeks, while some producers could likely deliver within six weeks if pushed.

Demand was stronger in premium-quality ingot for engine applications. Defence and medical markets also showed pockets of resilience, giving titanium producers some support outside standard aerospace structures.

Sponge and Commercially Pure Titanium Markets Stay Stable

Titanium sponge contract prices also remained stable. TG100 grade sponge long-term contract prices were assessed at $11-12/kg du Rotterdam in March, in line with standing 2026 contracts.

Saudi Arabian producer ATTM continued to operate normally, despite wider Middle East conflict risks and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has affected regional freight routes and disrupted some metals supply chains, but no direct titanium sponge impact was reported.

Commercially pure titanium ingot prices were also unchanged. CP Grade 1 ingot held at $12-14/kg cif main port, while CP Grade 2 ingot stayed at $11.10-12/kg cif main port.

Buyers avoided finalising new contracts as they focused on reducing stocks. However, inventory clearing remains difficult because lower-cost Chinese material continues to compete aggressively in downstream industrial markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Titanium prices are stable, but the market is not yet strong. The real divide is between standard aerospace titanium, where inventories still weigh on demand, and premium-quality, defence and medical applications, where strategic consumption remains firmer.

European Bi, In Price Rallies Stall on Profit-Taking

The surge in European bismuth and indium prices has decelerated as sellers capitalize on the substantial gains made in the second quarter, prompting slight declines in the past two weeks. Initially, speculation and constrained feedstock availability in China drove a sharp rise in prices, leading European sellers to elevate their offers in line with increasing replacement costs.

Bismuth prices in Europe saw a remarkable 77% increase from April to June but experienced a modest dip in early July due to profit-taking activities. Traders, seeking to benefit from the recent price rally, sold long-held low-cost materials at discounted rates compared to the higher-cost replacement materials sourced from China.

Similarly, indium prices, which reached a nine-year peak of $373-413/kg in June, have slightly receded to $373-401/kg. This adjustment followed a downturn in the Chinese domestic market, prompting European sellers to lower their offers and secure profits from the 35% price rise seen in the second quarter.

Despite tepid demand from European consumers, both metals experienced rapid price hikes in the second quarter, driven by elevated replacement costs from China. Chinese export prices for bismuth surged by 63% from April to June, remaining stable at $6.14-6.26/lb fob. Environmental inspections in China, which restricted the supply of bismuth concentrates from lead and zinc refineries, and speculative trading further exacerbated this price rise.

Indium supply constraints from China's Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi provinces due to environmental checks, coupled with trading activities on the Zhonglianjin platform, propelled prices upward. Although Chinese export prices for indium peaked at $371-391/kg fob in mid-May, they declined to $359-374/kg through June as trading activity slowed.

Speculation Fuels Minor Metal Price Increases

The swift price increases for bismuth and indium have spurred speculation about potential hikes in other minor metals such as selenium, tellurium, and germanium, whose prices are already trending upward.

Selenium prices in Europe were assessed at $10.40-13.10/lb duty unpaid Rotterdam, up from $10.30-12.40/lb at the end of June, marking a 7% rise in the second quarter driven by higher replacement costs from China and consistent demand.

Tellurium prices rose by 13% in June, last assessed at $91-99/kg duty unpaid Rotterdam, reflecting tight supply in European warehouses and rising prices in China.

Germanium metal prices hit a nine-year high of $1,810-2,010/kg cif main airport on July 2, up from $1,620-1,920/kg at the start of June, following an increase in Chinese export prices. The average germanium price in the first half of this year was $1,607/kg, significantly higher than the 10-year average of $1,324/kg, due to export controls limiting supply outside China.

Spot demand for most minor metals in Europe remains sluggish and is expected to stay low over the summer. However, market participants are closely monitoring China for indications of which minor metals might experience the next price spike, given Europe's heavy reliance on Chinese exports for many of these metals.

Abaxx to Launch Lithium Futures Backed by Albemarle in 2025

Abaxx

Physically Deliverable Lithium Carbonate Contracts to Trade in Singapore, Rotterdam, and Baltimore

Albemarle Named Sole Approved Brand and Producer

Abaxx Technology, a Singapore-based financial software and market infrastructure company, will launch three regional physically deliverable lithium carbonate futures contracts in March 2025. Albemarle, a global leader in lithium production, will serve as the only approved brand and producer for these contracts.

Global Lithium Futures to Enhance Price Discovery and Transparency

Each contract is USD-denominated and operates on a Delivered at Place (DAP) basis. The contracts represent one metric tonne of lithium carbonate and allow for physical delivery at major international ports: Singapore, Rotterdam, and Baltimore. This setup will improve price transparency and facilitate efficient global lithium trade, especially as demand for battery metals continues to surge.

Albemarle US is listed as the approved producer, and Albemarle La Negra as the approved brand across all contracts. Trading will commence on March 7, 2025, giving market participants a new tool to manage lithium price risk amid fast-changing supply and demand dynamics.

Abaxx Expands Battery Metals Offering on Its Commodity Exchange

Abaxx Technology operates the Abaxx Commodity Exchange and Clearinghouse, which already offers a range of contracts in energy, environmental, and battery metals markets. With the addition of physically deliverable lithium futures, Abaxx is positioned to become a key platform for battery supply chain participants seeking robust hedging solutions.

Nickel Prices Drop Amid US 'Liberation Day' Tariffs

Nickel

Global Market Faces Recession Fears as Tariffs Hit Nickel Prices

Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) plunged to their lowest levels since October 2020, following the announcement of the US "liberation day" tariffs. These tariffs, introduced on April 2, were more substantial than anticipated, sending shockwaves throughout the base metals markets. As fears of a global recession intensified, the broader base metals, equities, and commodities markets experienced a sharp decline.

The US government imposed a 10% tariff on all trading partner countries effective April 5. Additionally, higher tariffs were set for countries with significant trade deficits with the US, scheduled to take effect from April 9. The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs, along with their broader impact, has contributed to confusion and panic selling among traders.

Uncertainty Fuels Market Turmoil

The nickel market has been particularly volatile in the wake of these developments. The initial drop in nickel prices following the announcement of the tariffs was relatively modest at 1%. However, prices plunged further, losing 3.6% on April 4 and a significant 4.9% on April 5, dropping to $14,550 per ton. This sharp decline can be attributed to China's retaliatory tariffs, which placed a 34% duty on US exports.

Nickel prices have now fallen to their lowest point since October 2020, and the situation remains dire for many producers. Reports suggest that more than three-quarters of refined nickel production is currently operating at a loss, given the prevailing market conditions. Additionally, class 1 nickel production costs in Indonesia, a key supplier, are reported to exceed $15,000 per ton, indicating that current nickel prices are unsustainable for many producers.

Tariff Confusion Exacerbates Nickel Sell-Off

The sell-off in nickel was further aggravated by the confusion surrounding the application of the tariffs. Market participants were uncertain whether LME-grade nickel would be exempt from the new tariffs. Official documents confirmed that a baseline 10% tariff would not apply to HS Code 7508, which pertains to "Other Articles of Nickel." However, the critical HS Code 7502, which covers "unwrought nickel" used for LME-deliverable class 1 nickel, did not receive similar exemption.

Some traders have already begun moving nickel shipments out of the US to avoid the uncertainty, with large European trading groups indicating that they are rerouting cargoes to Rotterdam, UK. Meanwhile, nickel imports into the US from Canada, the country's main supplier, have continued to flow without tariffs under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). However, the future of this arrangement remains unclear, as the upcoming April 9 tariff changes could subject Canada to the same 10% tariff as other countries with trade deficits.

Outlook for Nickel Producers and the Market

The nickel market remains in a precarious situation. With continued confusion around the tariff details and recession concerns gripping major economies, it’s unclear how long the current market conditions will last. As more tariff structures are implemented and market players react to these changes, the global nickel supply chain faces increasing uncertainty.

Europe Nickel Market Remains Lethargic

European nickel premiums remained static over the past week, as many buyers are either on vacation or have their near-term needs covered. The market saw limited activity with most transactions being small-scale, and only briquette offers showing any potential for an increase.

Supply Constraints and Market Dynamics

Despite a recent decline in freight costs, the current premium levels and the incentives associated with London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouse deliveries are curbing the inflow of Asian cathodes into Europe. Traders noted that only a premium exceeding $500 per ton for uncut cathodes would justify importing Indonesian material, which, although high-quality, remains scarce.

Benchmark nickel prices on the LME rose by 2.3% over the past week to $16,930 per ton, driven by short covering and optimistic expectations for potential US interest rate cuts. However, weak physical demand continues to suppress the contract.

On-warrant nickel stocks in LME warehouses decreased by 1.4% to 109,482 tons, with Rotterdam inventories also showing a slight decline. Nickel spreads between nearby cash and three-month contracts remained in contango, shifting slightly to $226.89 per ton.

China’s Antimony Export Restrictions Reshape Global Supply and Prices

Antimony

China’s antimony export restrictions tightened in June, choking overseas flows and straining supply chains. As China’s antimony export restrictions intensified, shipments of metal and trioxide collapsed year on year. The policy shift underscores Beijing’s firmer control over strategic critical minerals.

Exports collapse across products

Antimony metal exports plunged to 20t in June, all to South Korea. A year earlier, flows reached 153t. First-half exports fell 84pc to 267t from 1,720t last year. Meanwhile, antimony trioxide exports slid to 87t in June from 3,228t a year earlier. June volumes went to Egypt, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Policy crackdown sustains price strength

China suspended gallium, germanium, and antimony exports to the US in December 2024. The US had taken one-third of China’s trioxide exports in 2023. Beijing then vowed a continued crackdown on smuggling of strategic minerals on 19 July. As a result, European prices held at multi-year highs in Rotterdam. Regulus grade II metal and trioxide grade traded around $58,000-60,000/t duty unpaid. The geographic shift in stocks further tightened access for downstream users.

The supply squeeze reflects new compliance hurdles and tougher licensing reviews. Traders report slower approvals and narrower eligible end uses. Flame retardant and alloy producers face longer lead times and higher working capital. Therefore, buyers diversify toward non-Chinese feedstock where possible. Still, China’s antimony export restrictions remain the defining market driver.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tighter Chinese controls have reset the antimony trade’s risk premium. Prices should stay elevated while enforcement curbs leakages and re-exports. Watch European restocking patterns and US substitution to gauge demand resilience.

EU Molybdenum Market Faces Pressure in 2025 from Rising Supply and Slowing Demand

Molybdenum

Price Declines Expected Amid Increased Production and Weak Steel Demand

The European molybdenum market is under significant pressure as supply surges while demand remains sluggish. This imbalance is expected to push prices down further from their 2024 highs, as both production and consumption trends signal an ongoing shift in the market.

In early February, the European molybdenum complex saw prices hit a nine-month low. Ferro-molybdenum (FeMo) was assessed at $49.40-49.80/kg in Rotterdam, while molybdenum oxide (MoOx) was priced at $20.60-20.85/lb. These figures represent a notable dip from the highs observed in 2023, when prices were buoyed by a shortage of immediate supplies. The average FeMo price in 2024 was $49.74/kg, the second highest since 2008, while MoOx prices averaged $19.63/lb, marking the second highest level since 2008.

Increased Supply Pressures Prices

Rising supply is a major factor contributing to the downward pressure on prices. Major molybdenum producers, such as Freeport-McMoRan and Chilean state-owned Codelco, are ramping up production at their copper mines, where molybdenum is often recovered as a by-product. This increase in output is expected to intensify competition in the market and put further strain on prices. In addition, the expansion of Chinese production, driven by efforts to restructure the steel industry, is set to add to global supply levels. The adoption of advanced manufacturing techniques is also contributing to greater output, resulting in an oversupplied market.

Market participants are predicting that FeMo prices could decline to the $45-47/kg range, especially if molybdenum extraction resumes in full swing from various mining operations. The increased production has led to a more competitive environment, which may push prices lower throughout 2025.

Weak Demand in European Markets

While supply continues to rise, demand for FeMo and MoOx in Europe is showing signs of weakening. Steel producers are reducing their alloy intake, reflecting slower buying activity in the market. Despite the growth in industries linked to electric vehicles and renewable energy, these sectors have not been able to offset the broader slowdown in steel production. The ongoing decline in construction and infrastructure projects is expected to keep demand for molybdenum alloys subdued in the short term.

Additionally, political uncertainties and fluctuating energy costs continue to create volatility in the market, making it difficult to forecast the full extent of molybdenum price declines. In light of the pessimistic outlook, many market participants are adopting a cautious approach, opting to work on long-term contracts or deal on a hand-to-mouth basis, with a limited number of truckload inquiries being observed.

US New Tariffs Could Disrupt China's Non-Exempt Metals Exports

China Tariffs

New tariffs on lithium, rare earth magnets, and more could affect China's metal exports to the US.

The United States has announced significant new tariffs on Chinese imports, with a notable focus on metals. While many non-ferrous metals and ferro-alloys have been exempted, some crucial exports from China, like lithium, rare earth magnets, and lithium-ion batteries, will face substantial increases in tariff rates. These changes are set to have a lasting impact on the trade between the US and China, especially in the energy storage and electric vehicle (EV) sectors.

High Tariffs on Lithium-Ion Batteries and Energy Storage

As of April 9, the US will implement an 82.4% tariff on electric vehicle (EV) power batteries and a 57.4% tariff on non-EV lithium-ion batteries from China. This substantial hike in tariffs will make Chinese-made batteries far more expensive and may eliminate the possibility of Chinese EV power batteries entering the US market. US consumers will likely absorb these costs, potentially leading to inflation in the US battery industry, especially in the energy storage sector.

China’s lithium-ion battery exports to the US had already been on the rise, with a 59% increase in exports during the first two months of the year. However, these new tariffs are expected to curb the growth of China's battery exports to the US and negatively affect lithium feedstock prices, which are currently at a four-year low.

Impact on Rare Earth Magnets

Rare earth magnets are another key area of concern, as these products were not exempted from the new tariffs. Despite some uncertainty about the exact tariff implementation, producers in China are anxious about the potential 54% tariff on rare earth magnets. China remains the dominant supplier of rare earth magnets globally, and while the US does have some alternatives, they are mostly focused on military applications with significantly higher prices. This makes it unlikely that the US can fully escape its dependence on China, especially for civilian applications.

China’s exports of rare earth magnets to the US in 2022 accounted for 12% of its total exports, and while tariffs could reduce this figure, China’s competitive pricing in the civil sector ensures its continued dominance in the global market.

Copper, Aluminium, and Hafnium: Other Affected Metals

While copper and aluminium are exempt from this latest round of tariffs, the copper industry remains on edge. US authorities are investigating the potential security implications of copper imports, and there’s speculation that a tariff may be imposed in the future. As for aluminium, Chinese exports are already subject to a steep 70% tariff, which is expected to discourage further aluminium exports to the US, pushing Chinese suppliers to seek alternative markets.

Hafnium, a critical metal used in aerospace applications, will also face a significant tariff hike, moving from 34% to 79%. This change could prompt US buyers to source hafnium from other regions, like Rotterdam, where the tariff is considerably lower.

Conclusion

The new US tariffs on Chinese metals exports are set to reshape the global metals market, particularly for lithium-ion batteries, rare earth magnets, and hafnium. While some sectors, like copper and aluminium, may have avoided immediate tariff hikes, long-term implications for the industry remain uncertain. The tariff increase on key metal exports from China to the US is expected to alter supply chains and increase costs for US consumers, especially in the EV and energy storage markets.

Acute Tungsten Shortage Drives Record Prices Across Global Supply Chains

Tungsten

The acute tungsten shortage is pushing global tungsten prices to record highs in 2026. Supply remains extremely tight across concentrate, APT, and downstream products. Low inventories and restricted Chinese export licences are worsening the squeeze. As a result, the acute tungsten shortage is becoming one of the most severe specialty metals disruptions in the market.

The current problem starts at the raw material level. Global production of tungsten concentrates has declined, while available western supply remains far below demand. Market participants now describe an estimated shortfall of around 13,000t of contained tungsten in the western market. Therefore, the acute tungsten shortage is no longer a regional issue. It is a structural supply crisis.

Pricing shows how quickly the market has tightened. Tungsten concentrate prices in Rotterdam surged to record levels in late January. European APT prices also climbed sharply as concentrate costs and export restrictions combined. Consequently, global tungsten prices are rising across the entire value chain.

Chinese Supply Constraints Are Tightening the Tungsten Concentrate Shortage

Chinese supply constraints remain the core driver of the tungsten concentrate shortage. China produces about 80pc of global tungsten supply and still dominates export availability. However, domestic ore shortages have intensified after mine shutdowns and weak new project development. Meanwhile, China’s 2025 mining quota fell from the previous year.

Trade data reinforces that tightening pattern. Chinese exports of tungsten concentrate declined sharply in 2025, while Chinese imports rose strongly. That means even China is pulling in more raw material to support its own processing base. As a result, less material is reaching overseas buyers.

APT export licences have added another bottleneck. Western customers may secure limited licences, but actual shipment still depends on concentrate availability. That creates a second layer of uncertainty on top of already weak feedstock supply. Therefore, the tungsten concentrate shortage is now feeding directly into delayed APT deliveries and higher prices.

Consumers are also paying much more for feedstock. Payables for concentrate have risen sharply as buyers compete for scarce supply. That shift reflects a market where sellers hold stronger leverage and buyers have fewer alternatives. Consequently, procurement conditions are becoming more difficult even for experienced consumers.

Japan and Europe Face Growing Pressure as Recycling Lags Demand

Japan and Europe are now feeling the full pressure of the acute tungsten shortage. Europe faces critically tight APT availability because it depends heavily on Chinese supply and licensing. Japan faces similar pressure after new Chinese restrictions on dual-use exports added more uncertainty. Therefore, both regions are competing harder for a smaller pool of material.

Japan’s position is especially sensitive. The country has no domestic tungsten mining base and depends heavily on imported tungsten products. Buyers are now seeking tungsten-containing scrap, but that market is also tight. As a result, recycling cannot yet solve the immediate supply problem.

Recycling capacity may grow, but it will take time. Japan is expanding tungsten recycling capability in response to lower Chinese exports. However, significant new output will not arrive quickly. Meanwhile, downstream consumers still need metal today, not years from now.

This means the market will likely remain strained for some time. Concentrate shortages, limited export licences, and weak scrap availability are all reinforcing one another. Therefore, the acute tungsten shortage is likely to keep global tungsten prices elevated unless primary supply improves materially.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tungsten is now showing how vulnerable specialty metal supply chains become when one country dominates both mining and exports. This market is not just tight. It is structurally exposed. Unless new western supply or faster recycling emerges, tungsten buyers may face prolonged price pressure and continued allocation risk.

European Stainless Steel Scrap Prices Edge Up Amid Domestic Demand

Stainless Steel

European stainless steel scrap prices have seen a slight increase over the past week, supported by pockets of domestic demand and continued export market activity. The demand from Germany, in particular, has been reported as the strongest in Europe, driving prices higher. While sellers have been able to secure better profit margins, concerns about the sustainability of the current price levels remain.

Germany Leads Price Surge, Limited Growth Expected

SuperMetalPrice weekly assessment for 304 (18-8) stainless steel scrap solids CIF Rotterdam rose to €1,200-1,250 per tonne, up from €1,210-1,230 per tonne the previous week. Prices in Germany were at the higher end of the range, with strong demand noted in Northern Germany, where scrap was traded at €1,245-1,250 per tonne.

In addition to Germany, the Netherlands and Italy also showed some demand, although not as robust. Despite these price increases, many sellers are wary about the longevity of this domestic demand, indicating that the market could stabilize in the near term due to the mixed sentiment among traders.

Outlook for Nickel and Scrap Prices

The nickel market remains a key factor for stainless steel scrap prices. Despite a recent dip in the price of three-month nickel on the London Metal Exchange (LME), which fell by 2.95% to $15,800 per tonne, traders are expecting the benchmark nickel price to hold steady around $16,000 per tonne for the remainder of the year. This stability is expected to limit any significant upward movement in stainless steel scrap prices.

As traders remain cautious, the mixed sentiment in the market suggests that scrap prices could stabilize or hold firm in the short term, without drastic changes expected in the coming months.

Outokumpu Issues Profit Warning Amid Stainless Steel Market Weakness

Outokumpu

Finland-based stainless steel producer Outokumpu has issued a profit warning, revising its guidance for the fourth quarter due to a combination of challenging market conditions, operational setbacks, and falling raw material prices. The company now anticipates its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for Q4 to be significantly below the €86 million ($90 million) recorded in the third quarter.

Outokumpu cited multiple factors contributing to the revision, including:

• Prolonged maintenance at its Tornio plant in Finland, which exceeded initial expectations of a €10 million impact.

• Weakened stainless steel market conditions, reflecting sluggish demand across the European value chain.

• Negative inventory valuation effects, driven by plummeting stainless steel and scrap prices.

The company hinted that Q4 adjusted EBITDA could approach breakeven levels or even turn negative due to these compounded challenges.

European Stainless Steel Market Pressures Intensify

The European stainless steel market is facing significant headwinds, with demand declining across the value chain. Falling raw material prices and broader economic uncertainties have exacerbated the situation. The Supermetalprice assessment for stainless steel 304 cold-rolled 2mm sheet delivered to northwest Europe has dropped nearly 15% since Q2, averaging €2,550/t. Similarly, stainless steel scrap 304 (18-8) solids cif Rotterdam has seen a sharp 21% decline, averaging €1,155/t.

Outokumpu’s stainless steel deliveries in Q4 are expected to decrease by 0-10% compared to Q3, with the company now expecting shipments to hit the lower end of the range. Total stainless steel shipments fell by 2.23% year-on-year to 459,000 tonnes in Q3, reflecting broader market stagnation.

These conditions have forced Outokumpu to reassess its operational strategies, while other producers in Europe are similarly reducing capacities to address supply and demand imbalances.

Looking Ahead

Outokumpu’s profit warning highlights the broader challenges facing the European stainless steel industry. Demand-side struggles, coupled with falling prices for raw materials and finished goods, are reshaping market dynamics. As Outokumpu navigates through these turbulent times, the focus will remain on mitigating operational inefficiencies while anticipating potential recovery in global demand for stainless steel.

EU Tungsten Prices Surge Amid Tight Supply and China Export Controls

EU Tungsten Scrap

Export Restrictions and Low Inventories Drive Up Tungsten Prices in Europe

European tungsten prices have surged to multi-year highs due to restricted supply, dwindling inventories, and newly imposed Chinese export controls. The Focus Keyphrase "EU tungsten prices" has gained attention from global buyers navigating a market reshaped by policy shifts and geopolitical uncertainty.

European tungsten concentrate prices are now $310–320/dmtu in Rotterdam warehouses, up from $260–270/dmtu in early January — the highest level since the index’s launch in 2017. This price rally stems from low inventories and tightening global supply, particularly as China has lowered its tungsten mining quota and extended export licensing to include more products.

Western Buyers Lock in Long-Term Contracts Amid Risk

Western buyers are responding to this supply disruption by securing multi-year offtake deals. According to Australia-based producer EQ Resources, these contracts often include large prepayments to hedge against delays in Chinese export licence approvals.

Meanwhile, the defense sector's growing demand for tungsten is driving further contract activity. Almonty Industries, for instance, has signed a multi-year agreement to supply tungsten oxide to U.S.-based TPW for military applications. These agreements underscore the metal's strategic importance and the urgency among buyers to secure long-term supply.

However, some traders question how long the upward momentum can last. While markets like Vietnam remain willing to pay premium prices, others find current rates difficult to accept.

APT Prices Rise as Chinese Controls Disrupt Market

The price of ammonium paratungstate (APT), a key tungsten intermediate, has also spiked. European APT prices now range between $395–405/dmtu, a 20% increase since January and the highest since 2013. China’s restrictions have further worsened European availability, leading to extremely low warehouse stock levels.

As a workaround, some buyers have started importing ammonium tungstate (ATM), which is not currently subject to export controls. Although ATM cannot be converted into oxide, it is usable in limited applications. Industry sources caution that ATM could be restricted if the trade environment worsens.

Adding to the cost pressure, concentrate payables have jumped to 80–85% of APT price, up from the typical 70%, reflecting the sharp increase in feedstock costs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EU tungsten prices are being reshaped not just by market forces, but by geopolitics. With China tightening control over its critical minerals, Western buyers are being pushed into a new era of strategic procurement. As APT and concentrate prices continue to climb, Europe’s reliance on Chinese tungsten remains a vulnerability — one that may prompt diversification strategies and renewed investment in local supply chains.

European Nickel Premiums Decline Amid Rising Inventories

European Nickel

European nickel premiums have been steadily declining as the market faces a sharp increase in inventory levels. Producers and traders, holding substantial stocks of nickel cathodes, have slashed prices in an attempt to offload surplus supply. The pressure on premiums is most pronounced for Russian cathodes, while briquettes maintain stronger support due to tighter availability.

One trader highlighted the trend, noting that the past few days have been pivotal. "Premiums are increasingly under pressure, and the conversation across the market revolves around the exceptionally high inventory levels," he said.

Another trader echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that the market is recognizing weak demand fundamentals, which are likely to persist through the end of the year. The high cost of holding large inventories has also contributed to a sell-off as sellers look to reduce their exposure.

Despite the reduced offers, spot activity in Europe remains subdued, and traders are far from hitting their monthly targets for September. The rise in volumes has not been enough to stimulate demand significantly.

However, benchmark nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have seen a 2.75% increase over the past week, reaching $16,825 per tonne. This rise is largely due to a short covering program and a cyclical uptick in end-user demand. On-warrant nickel inventories in LME warehouses rose by 5.4% over the same period, with a 19% surge in Rotterdam alone, where stocks now stand at 30,192 tonnes.

The cash-to-three-month nickel spread has remained relatively stable, with the contango widening slightly to $244.50 per tonne, compared to $242.01 per tonne last week.

China Tungsten Exports Resume in Europe with Limited Volumes

China Tungsten

China tungsten exports restarted in European markets for the first time since February stoppages, though shipment volumes remain constrained at maximum 1 tonne per delivery. The resumption of China tungsten exports follows months of supply disruption caused by Chinese export controls announced February 4th, creating acute shortages for US and European buyers dependent on tungsten ingots for defense and industrial applications.

Small-Scale Shipments Signal Cautious Market Re-entry

China tungsten exports currently originate primarily from smaller state-owned manufacturers rather than major producers. Market sources report receiving new shipments in Rotterdam while additional material remains in transit to European destinations. However, volumes stay extremely limited compared to pre-control periods, reflecting continued regulatory uncertainty and cautious export policies from Chinese suppliers.

Meanwhile, delivery timelines extend significantly with current orders potentially shipping in July for immediate purchases. Traders quote current prices at $56 per kilogram on a cost-insurance-freight basis, representing substantial increases from historical levels. The extended lead times demonstrate supply chain disruptions that persist despite the resumption of limited export activities.

Export Controls Create Ongoing Market Uncertainty

However, tungsten metal products face complex regulatory environments despite not appearing on initial dual-use licensing lists. While other tungsten products required explicit export licenses from February 4th, tungsten ingots experienced de facto export halts through administrative restrictions. This regulatory ambiguity creates persistent uncertainty for international buyers seeking reliable supply sources.

Therefore, US and European buyers continue struggling to secure sufficient alternative tungsten sources outside Chinese production. The global tungsten market's dependence on Chinese suppliers becomes evident through months of supply shortages following export control implementation. Alternative sourcing efforts prove inadequate for meeting industrial demand requirements across defense and manufacturing sectors.

Tight European Market Maintains Price Pressure

Furthermore, European tungsten markets remain extremely tight with minimal warehouse inventory available for immediate delivery. Limited stock levels mean small resumptions in Chinese exports cannot immediately relieve price pressures or supply constraints. Market participants describe conditions as "total lottery" scenarios where securing tungsten ingots depends largely on timing and supplier relationships.

As a result, prompt tungsten prices maintain elevated levels despite the resumption of small-scale Chinese shipments. The constrained supply environment supports premium pricing while buyers compete for limited available material. Industrial consumers face continued procurement challenges that affect production planning and cost structures across tungsten-dependent manufacturing sectors.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China's limited tungsten export resumption highlights the persistent vulnerability of global supply chains dependent on single-source suppliers for critical materials, particularly when geopolitical tensions influence trade policies. The constrained volumes and regulatory uncertainty demonstrate how export controls can fundamentally reshape commodity markets, forcing Western buyers to reassess supply security strategies for defense-critical materials like tungsten.

Tungsten Offtake Deal Strengthens EQ Resources’ Role in Tight Western Supply Chains

EQ Resources

Tungsten offtake deal activity is accelerating as Western buyers seek secure supply in a market facing concentrate shortages and sharp price increases. EQ Resources binding agreement with Traxys highlights how tungsten has moved from a niche industrial metal into a strategic supply-chain concern for Europe, North America, and advanced manufacturing sectors.

The Australian producer will sell 3,500 t/yr of tungsten oxide in concentrate to Traxys for five years. Pricing will follow ammonium paratungstate indexes, giving the agreement direct exposure to a market that has rallied sharply over the past year. EQ Resources estimates the deal at A$678mn, or about $479mn.

The tungsten offtake deal also includes a €15mn prepayment that will support refinancing of EQR’s Saloro mining complex in Spain. This matters because European tungsten supply has become increasingly important as buyers face limited concentrate availability and rising concerns over Chinese export restrictions on downstream tungsten products.

Traxys Agreement Supports Saloro Financing and Market Access

The Traxys agreement gives EQ Resources a stronger commercial platform for its tungsten output. Offtake deals are especially important in tight specialty metal markets because they can support financing, improve customer visibility, and reduce marketing risk for producers.

Saloro remains a key asset in this strategy. The Spanish operation gives EQR exposure to European tungsten production at a time when the region is trying to strengthen local and allied supply chains. However, Saloro’s production fell by 13pc year on year in July-September because of declining ore grades, showing that asset optimisation remains critical.

EQR used the quarter to improve ore processing and concentrator plants at Saloro. These upgrades are important because tungsten concentrate supply is not only about mine ownership. It also depends on recovery performance, grade management, processing efficiency, and the ability to deliver consistent concentrate quality into long-term contracts.

Tungsten Price Rally Raises Strategic Value of Concentrate Supply

The tungsten offtake deal comes during an exceptional rally in ammonium paratungstate prices. Super Metal Price assessed tungsten APT at $1,700–1,900/mtu in-warehouse Rotterdam, up by about 390pc from a year earlier. That surge reflects a critical shortage of tungsten concentrates in Europe and tighter availability of downstream tungsten products.

Chinese export restrictions have added pressure to the market. Tungsten is essential for cutting tools, hard metals, defence systems, mining equipment, aerospace components, and high-temperature industrial applications. Any disruption in concentrate or intermediate product availability can quickly affect manufacturing supply chains.

EQR has already built a wider offtake base. The company previously agreed to supply tungsten concentrate to Asian, North American, and European producers, and also signed a five-year offtake deal with US producer Elmet Technologies. The Traxys agreement strengthens that pattern and reinforces EQ Resources’ position as a relevant non-Chinese tungsten supplier.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Tungsten is becoming a clear example of how specialty metals can move from overlooked inputs to strategic bottlenecks. The Traxys-EQR deal shows that secure concentrate access, financing, and processing reliability now matter as much as headline mine capacity.

Fresh Concerns Over the US' 80% Tariff on Hafnium

Hafnium

Trade Restrictions on Chinese Hafnium Raise Fears of Shortages and Price Increases

The recent tariff increase on hafnium exports from China to the US has raised significant concerns within the market. Under President Donald Trump's new tariff regime, hafnium is now subject to an 80% duty, which could create supply shortages in the coming months. This marks a substantial increase from the previous 25% tariff rate, placing additional pressure on the already limited global supply of hafnium.

US Dependency on Hafnium Imports

While the US does produce hafnium, it is not self-sufficient and still relies heavily on imports to meet domestic demand. Global hafnium production is relatively small, estimated at only 70-75 tonnes per year. The supply is concentrated in just four countries: France, the US, China, and Russia. In January 2024, China exported 1,499kg of hafnium to the US, according to Chinese customs data. However, North American producers have limited capacity, and competition from countries like Japan and South Korea, which have increased their hafnium purchases for nuclear power generation, is intensifying.

Hafnium is a critical material used in industries such as aerospace, semiconductors, space, and nuclear. However, the growing trade tensions and export restrictions are exacerbating the challenges faced by Western consumers, particularly since many have reduced imports from Russia due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict.

Tariff Increase and License Delays Exacerbate Hafnium Supply Issues

As tariffs on hafnium have risen, particularly with the new 34% reciprocal tariff on Chinese imports, many industry players are grappling with the uncertainty of future supply. In February 2024, US and Chinese trade partners discussed sharing tariff costs, but the idea was rejected by some Chinese sellers due to limited profit margins.

Furthermore, since September 2024, China has placed hafnium on its dual-use items export control list, creating significant delays in the export license approval process. These delays have worsened the supply situation, as exporters are now required to notify authorities about the end-users and their specific applications for the material. Additionally, some sellers are now being asked to visit the facilities where their metal is sold to verify its usage, putting further strain on traders.

Hafnium Prices and Market Outlook

The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and export delays has led to a rise in hafnium prices. Rotterdam prices have been relatively flat this year due to the lack of spot demand, as consumers have replenished stocks in advance. However, long-term contracts remain high, with some buyers paying close to $6,000 per kilogram or more, as firms signed multi-year contracts during earlier supply crunches.

On April 3, 2024, the market in China weakened slightly as suppliers accepted lower bid prices to cope with sufficient spot stocks and an anticipated decrease in purchases from US consumers. Prices for 99.95% grade hafnium crystal bar with 0.2% zirconium fell to ¥16,300–16,500 per kilogram ex-works, down from ¥16,500–17,000 per kilogram just a week earlier.

EU Ferro-Titanium Imports Fell to 2009 Low After Russian Ban

Ferro-Titanium

EU ferro-titanium imports fell to their lowest level since 2009 in 2025 after sanctions blocked Russian material from entering the bloc directly or through Baltic transit routes. EU countries imported 30,171t of ferro-titanium last year, down 36% from 47,296t in 2024.

The sharp decline showed how deeply the European ferro-titanium market had depended on Russian supply and Baltic logistics. Estonia, Poland, and Latvia together accounted for 12,830t of EU supply, but the structure of that supply changed significantly once Russian-origin ferro-titanium was barred.

EU ferro-titanium imports from Estonia halved on the year to 6,384t. The decline suggests that Estonian flows now more closely reflect local production rather than Russian material transiting through the country.

Sanctions Shifted Supply Toward Estonia, Poland and India

Estonia remained the EU’s largest ferro-titanium supplier in 2025, while Poland became the second-largest intra-EU source. Polish shipments rose by a quarter to 3,834t, showing that European buyers were turning more heavily to regional producers after the Russian ban.

Imports from the UK fell 27% to 3,468t after the closure of TiVac last summer. Most of TiVac’s former volumes are expected to shift to Estonia, where FE Mottram is scaling up operations in Ahtme, while Transition Metals continues to operate in the UK.

India became a larger alternative supplier as exports to the EU rose 171% to 2,310t. Turkey’s shipments also surged to 1,000t, although these flows remain unclear because Turkey is not a known ferro-titanium producer.

Russian ferro-titanium imports fell to just 463t in 2025 after full implementation of EU sanctions on Russian ferro-alloys in December 2024. Russian exports largely moved to Asia, with Chinese imports from Russia reaching a record 6,381t last year.

Russian Scrap Flows Rose Before Late-Year Slowdown

Titanium scrap became a temporary workaround because Russian titanium scrap was not covered by EU sanctions. EU imports of Russian scrap doubled to 2,517t in 2025, with 2,406t entering Estonia.

Estonia then re-exported 2,277t of titanium scrap last year, showing how scrap flows supported the regional ferro-titanium supply chain after the ban on Russian ferro-alloys. However, this trade also weakened sharply toward year-end, with EU imports falling to 36t in December and 37t in January 2026.

European ferro-titanium prices averaged $4.98-5.33/kg Ti dp/df Rotterdam in 2025, down 28% from 2024. Weak steel mill consumption kept prices under pressure for most of the year.

The market later rebounded from multi-year lows in December. Supply concerns linked to Latvian producer LLR-Ecotech first supported the recovery, before higher scrap costs allowed other producers to raise offers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU ferro-titanium market is now being rebuilt around sanctions compliance, regional production, and scrap availability. The Russian ban reduced headline imports, but it also exposed Europe’s dependence on flexible titanium scrap flows and a small group of regional producers.

Nyrstar produces first antimony at South Australia plant as non-China supply grows

Nyrstar

Nyrstar produces first antimony at South Australia plant, marking a new step for non-China antimony supply. Nyrstar, owned by Trafigura, produced its first antimony metal at the Port Pirie pilot facility. Nyrstar produces first antimony at South Australia plant with exports expected in the first half of next year. Therefore, buyers tracking antimony supply outside China now have a new potential source.

Nyrstar aims to reach 2,000 tonnes per year of antimony output by the end of next year. Meanwhile, the company says the site could reach 5,000 tonnes per year by 2028 with further upgrade investment. The pilot plant relies on Port Pirie’s 160,000 t/yr lead smelter, where antimony emerges as a by-product. As a result, operational stability at the lead circuit will shape antimony availability and quality.

Port Pirie financing links industrial rescue funding and export credit support

Australia provided an $87mn rescue package in August for two smelters, including Port Pirie. The support followed a period of weaker prices and financial pressure on operations. Meanwhile, Export Finance Australia issued a non-binding conditional support letter for the pilot plant. That letter followed the US–Australia critical minerals deal and still depends on commercial terms and due diligence. Therefore, Nyrstar produces first antimony at South Australia plant while it builds a financing bridge to scale.

This structure shows how critical mineral policy is shifting toward existing industrial assets. It also shows how by-product metals can scale faster than greenfield mines. However, the ramp still needs capital discipline and clear product qualification. As a result, pilot performance metrics will matter as much as headline capacity.

Antimony prices stay elevated as new capacity emerges outside China

Antimony prices surged to record levels this year after shortages and China’s export controls tightened supply. Prices reached about $60,400–61,500 per tonne on a Rotterdam basis in June. Meanwhile, prices fell around 31% to $41,000–43,000 per tonne by 18 November. The market expects further easing as more smelting capacity starts outside China. However, prices remain far above the 10-year average of $11,533 per tonne, so supply security still carries a premium.

Nyrstar is also evaluating production of bismuth and tellurium at the site. China added both materials to its export-controlled dual-use list earlier this year. Therefore, Port Pirie could evolve from an antimony pilot into a broader critical metals platform if upgrades proceed.

The Metalnomist Commentary

By-product antimony can scale quickly, but it depends on lead smelter uptime and feed chemistry. Meanwhile, price declines may cool investment appetite, even as security concerns rise. Therefore, Port Pirie’s real value will be reliable tonnes with verified specifications, not peak-nameplate targets.