Mirador copper mine contract extension set for 1H 2026 as Ecuador targets higher output

ECSA

The Mirador copper mine contract extension will be signed in the first half of 2026, according to Ecuador’s mining vice-minister. The deal will extend Ecuador’s agreement with China’s Ecsa-Ecuacorriente to develop the Mirador Norte deposit. As a result, the Mirador copper mine contract extension could unlock a major production step-change at the country’s only large-scale copper mine.

The negotiation has dragged on since 2023 despite expectations for an earlier completion. However, Ecuador’s 2024 power crisis slowed talks and forced new conditions around self-supplied electricity. Therefore, the Mirador copper mine contract extension now hinges on power security as much as geology.

Power constraints reshape Ecuador copper mine operations

Power reliability now dictates operational stability at Mirador. Ecuador faced scheduled blackouts for 88 days in 2024, with outages lasting between four and 14 hours. Meanwhile, harsh drought conditions and a thermoelectric shortfall tightened supply and increased grid risk.

Mirador disconnected from the grid from September to December during the crisis. The mine relied on its own thermoelectric generation, but it could not cover full demand. Consequently, Ecuador required Ecsa to install dedicated power capacity to reduce system exposure.

Mirador Norte deposit expansion targets 140,000 t/d processing

Ecsa has installed 40MW of thermoelectric power and is installing another 40MW to cover current needs. The mine still needs an additional 90MW to operate Mirador Norte at scale. Therefore, the operator plans to source that power from private suppliers developing nearby small hydroelectric plants.

Mirador Norte would lift throughput to 140,000 tonnes per day by 2027–2028, up from 70,000 tonnes per day today. This expansion would materially increase concentrate output and export volumes. Meanwhile, Ecuador’s copper strategy depends on proving it can scale mining without repeating grid disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This contract extension highlights how electricity now acts as a de-risking requirement for copper expansions. However, reliance on new private hydro supply adds schedule and counterparty risk. Therefore, Mirador’s next growth phase will test Ecuador’s ability to align mining growth with firm power delivery.

Ecuador's Power Shortages Delay Copper Expansion Deal with Chinese Miner

Ecuador's efforts to expand its copper mining operations have hit a significant roadblock due to ongoing power supply issues. The country's energy deficit has delayed the signing of a crucial contract extension with Chinese mining company Ecsa-Ecuacorriente, which is poised to open a second copper pit in the Mirador Norte deposit. The delay underscores the challenges facing Ecuador as it seeks to bolster its mining sector, which is a key component of its economic development strategy.

Ecsa, a subsidiary of the Chinese consortium CRCC-Tongguan, has been operating the Mirador mine—the only large-scale copper mine in Ecuador—since June 2019. The mine currently processes around 60,000 metric tons of mineralized material per day. The Ecuadorian government began negotiations with Ecsa in 2023 to extend their contract and develop the Mirador Norte site, with the aim of finalizing the deal by April 2024.

However, Ecuador has been plagued by severe power outages from April to June this year, with blackouts lasting between 2 to 8 hours daily. These disruptions were caused by a combination of insufficient thermoelectric power and low water levels in hydroelectric reservoirs. Although the immediate crisis has subsided, the energy ministry has recently declared a new power emergency, anticipating a particularly dry season from September to March.

In response to these challenges, the energy ministry has required Ecsa to commit to constructing the 128MW Santa Cruz hydroelectric project to ensure a stable power supply for the Mirador Norte site. However, Ecsa has resisted this demand, arguing that the project is unnecessary given the government's plans to develop the much larger 2.4GW Santiago hydroelectric project, which would be located just 130 kilometers upriver from Mirador. Despite these assurances, the Santiago project has yet to begin construction, with operations not expected to commence until 2031 at the earliest.

Mining Vice Minister Diego Ocampo emphasized that even before the recent energy crisis, Ecuador's national grid lacked the capacity to meet Mirador Norte's energy needs. As a result, Ecsa may be required to build a thermoelectric plant with a capacity similar to that of the proposed Santa Cruz project before the contract extension can be signed.

Ocampo expressed optimism that Ecsa would agree to these terms, suggesting that the contract extension could be finalized within the next two months. However, Ecsa has not yet provided a formal response to these conditions.

Meanwhile, construction of a second processing plant at Mirador Norte, which began in February, is expected to be completed by September 2025. This new facility will enable the mine to process between 60,000 and 80,000 metric tons of material per day. Ecsa aims to increase its processing capacity to 140,000 metric tons per day by 2028, with plans to double its copper production within the same timeframe.

Ecsa currently produces more than 90% of Ecuador's copper concentrate exports, a vital component of the country's economy. In the first half of this year, Ecuador exported nearly 315,960 metric tons of copper concentrate, a 7% increase compared to the same period in 2023, according to data from the central bank.

Ecsa Forecasts 5% Growth in Ecuador's Copper Production

Ecsa-Ecuacorriente, the Chinese copper producer operating Ecuador’s largest copper mine, expects to increase its copper concentrate production by around 5%, according to production coordinator William Arteaga. Ecsa runs the Mirador mine, Ecuador’s only large-scale copper operation, which accounted for 95% of the country’s copper concentrate exports in 2023, totaling 580,300 metric tonnes.

Production Gains and Challenges Ahead

In the first half of 2024, Ecsa produced 302,980 tonnes of copper concentrate, marking an 8% increase compared to the same period in 2023. This growth is largely attributed to improved processing of mineralized materials. Currently, the Mirador mine processes around 65,000 tonnes per day, a significant 8% rise from last year. However, Arteaga noted that achieving 2024 production goals hinges on Ecuador avoiding scheduled power blackouts through the end of the year.

Ecuador is preparing for a severe dry season from September to March, which is expected to impact the country's main hydroelectric plants. To counter potential power shortages, the state-owned utility Celec has secured 351MW of thermoelectric power for September-December and plans to tender an additional 700MW.

Cancellation of Santa Cruz Hydroelectric Plant

Ecsa also announced it will not proceed with the construction of the 128MW Santa Cruz hydroelectric plant, which was initially planned to supply power to the Mirador Norte copper deposit. This deposit is set to start operations in the second half of 2025. Although Ecsa committed to building the plant as part of its 2012 exploitation contract with Ecuador, the project has faced continuous delays. The company now considers the project “economically unfeasible” due to other hydroelectric developments upstream.

Mining vice-minister Diego Ocampo had previously indicated that Ecuador’s grid lacked the capacity to supply power to Mirador Norte and urged Ecsa to either build the Santa Cruz plant or install a thermoelectric facility of comparable power. However, Ocampo resigned unexpectedly on August 26.

Investment and Future Outlook

Despite challenges, Ecsa has invested $104 million in the Mirador and Mirador Norte projects so far this year. The company plans to increase this investment to $195 million in 2025, more than doubling the $88 million invested in 2023. However, Ecsa's legal vice president Mauricio Nunez warned that without sufficient power, the company might be forced to reduce its copper concentrate production.

Ecuador’s Copper Exports Drop 14% in 2024 Amid Power Crisis

Mirador

Mirador Mine Recovers After Blackouts, But Annual Output Still Lags

Ecuador's copper concentrate exports fell by 14% in 2024, totaling 523,660 metric tonnes, according to the Central Bank of Ecuador. The sharp decline was primarily caused by severe power outages between September and December, which disrupted mining operations.

The country’s only large-scale copper mine, Mirador, operated by China’s Ecsa-Ecuacorriente, was forced to reduce output to minimal levels during October and November. This was because Ecuador’s national power grid supplied only about half the electricity needed to maintain full production.

Mirador Accounts for 90% of Ecuador’s Copper Exports

Mirador generates nearly 90% of Ecuador’s copper concentrate exports, while the remaining 10% comes from marginal copper recovered from gold mining operations. Once power supply stabilized, Mirador quickly resumed full-scale production. The result was a less severe output decline than initially expected.

Government official Javier Illescas noted that the production drop could have reached 20%, but recovery efforts reduced the overall impact. Ecsa-Ecuacorriente now aims to boost production in 2025 to compensate for last year’s losses.

Export Revenue Falls Despite Higher Prices

Despite the volume drop, Ecuador earned $1.16 billion from copper concentrate exports in 2024, down 6% from $1.24 billion in 2023. This smaller decline was offset by a 9% rise in average export prices, which reached $2,220 per tonne in 2024.

Copper accounted for 37.9% of total metallic mineral exports, while gold led with 61.9%. Other minerals, including zinc, lead, and iron, made up just 0.2% of Ecuador’s $3.1 billion metallic mineral export total, which itself was down 8% year-on-year.

Ecuador Copper Concentrate Exports Rise as Mirador Recovers From Power Crisis

Ecuador Copper mining

Ecuador copper concentrate exports rose strongly in 2025 as mining output recovered from the country’s severe 2024 energy crisis. The rebound shows how power reliability has become a direct supply-chain issue for copper producers, especially in hydro-dependent mining jurisdictions.

Ecuador exported about 670,740t of copper concentrate in 2025, up 28pc from 523,660t in 2024. Export revenue increased even faster, rising 48pc to about $1.73bn as average export prices climbed 16pc to $2,572/t. The recovery helped Ecuador copper concentrate exports regain momentum after blackouts severely disrupted mine operations a year earlier.

The country shipped its highest monthly volume in November, when copper concentrate exports reached almost 80,630t. That was far above the same month in 2024, when power shortages had sharply reduced industrial activity. However, the 2025 increase partly reflects the unusually weak comparison base created by Ecuador’s previous electricity crisis.

Mirador Remains Central to Ecuador’s Copper Export Growth

Mirador remains the dominant driver of Ecuador copper concentrate exports because it produces about 90pc of the country’s exported concentrate. The mine, operated by Ecsa-Ecuacorriente, was heavily affected in 2024 when the government disconnected large industrial users from the national grid to protect residential power supply.

The disruption exposed a structural risk in Ecuador’s mining model. The country faced 88 days of scheduled blackouts between September and December 2024 after a severe dry season reduced output from major hydroelectric plants. Large mines were forced to rely on limited thermoelectric capacity, which was not enough to fully cover operating requirements.

China remained by far the main destination for Ecuador’s copper concentrate in 2025, receiving around 96.5pc of exports. Peru received 3.5pc, while South Korea accounted for only 0.1pc. This concentration highlights Ecuador’s role as a China-facing copper concentrate supplier, but it also shows limited customer diversification.

Energy Security Becomes the Key Condition for Expansion

Ecuador’s 2026 copper export outlook will depend heavily on negotiations with Ecsa over development of the Mirador Norte deposit. The new pit could double Ecsa’s current copper production by 2028, making it one of the most important near-term growth levers for Ecuador’s mining sector.

The government is seeking additional power security before allowing expansion to proceed. Ecsa is being required to install 90MW of additional thermoelectric generation so Mirador Norte can operate without relying on the national grid during another energy crisis. The company currently has 40MW installed to meet its power needs.

This requirement reflects a broader shift in copper project development. Governments and investors are no longer looking only at ore bodies, grades, and processing capacity. They are also testing whether mines can withstand power stress, water risk, and infrastructure shocks. For Ecuador, solving that energy constraint will be essential if the country wants to become a more reliable copper supply source.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ecuador’s copper rebound is less about new supply and more about restored operating continuity. The Mirador Norte decision will show whether the country can convert geological potential into dependable copper growth under tougher energy-security conditions.

Ecuador Aims to Boost Copper Exports by 10–14% in 2025

Ecuador Copper Mining

Power Stability Set to Restore Ecuador's Copper Output

Ecuador plans to increase copper exports by 10–14% in 2025, targeting a return to 2023 shipment levels. Vice Minister of Mining Rebeca Illescas confirmed the outlook, following a 14% export decline in 2024 due to power outages.

The Mirador mine, operated by Chinese-owned Ecsa-Ecuacorriente, contributes over 90% of Ecuador's copper concentrate output. Severe drought in late 2024 slashed hydropower supply and triggered 88 days of scheduled electricity cuts, impacting mining productivity. Now, the mine has restored full power and is importing thermoelectric systems to ensure stability by May.

Infrastructure and Weather Challenges Still Linger

Ecuador rented 1GW of thermoelectric capacity to prevent further blackouts, said Vice Minister of Electricity Fabian Calero. This improved stability has already helped copper exports rebound in early 2025, with January shipments up 38% from December.

However, copper export volumes in January were still 37% lower than the same month in 2024. Heavy rains in early 2025 damaged transportation infrastructure, further limiting copper movement to export terminals. Despite lower volumes, improved pricing led to a 40% month-on-month increase in export value, reaching $110 million in January.

Ecsa contributed $53 million in royalties for 2023–2024 copper exports, marking a 29% increase over the prior period.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ecuador's strategy to stabilize copper exports underscores the growing linkage between energy resilience and mineral trade flows. With Chinese investment entrenched in Ecuador's copper mining and export network, the success of thermoelectric backup systems will shape the country's ability to compete as a regional copper supplier—especially as Peru and Chile face their own bottlenecks. Prices remain strong, but risks from climate and logistics persist.

Ecuador Increases Power Tariffs for Copper Mines Amid Energy Crisis

Ecuacorriente S.A

In a move to address Ecuador's ongoing energy crisis, the country’s electricity regulatory agency, Arconel, has raised power tariffs for large-scale industries, including the copper mining sector. This change, which took effect on October 30, has significant implications for major mines in the country, notably Mirador, operated by China's Ecsa-Ecuacorriente, and Fruta del Norte, operated by Canadian company Lundin. The revised tariffs will impact electricity consumption during peak hours, further exacerbating the financial pressure on mining operations already grappling with soaring costs.

Key Changes to Power Tariffs

The new electricity tariffs target industries that consume the most power, with particular emphasis on mining operations. The most notable increases are:

• Peak Hours (6-10 pm): Increased from 8.10¢/kWh to 9.86¢/kWh.
• Daytime (8 am-6 pm): Raised from 6.8¢/kWh to 8.5¢/kWh.
• Off-Peak (10 pm-8 am): Increased from 5.4¢/kWh to 7.5¢/kWh.

These price hikes will affect two major mines in Ecuador: the Mirador copper mine, which is one of the country’s largest, and the Fruta del Norte gold mine. The tariff increases are a direct response to the national energy shortage caused by a harsh drought, which has significantly reduced the output from Ecuador’s primary hydroelectric plants.

Impact of Ecuador's Energy Crisis on Mining

Ecuador is currently facing a severe energy crisis, exacerbated by a lack of rainfall, which has hindered the operation of hydroelectric plants. As a result, the country has had to rely heavily on thermoelectric power generation, leading to a 77% increase in thermoelectric fuel consumption in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, according to Petroecuador, the state-owned oil and energy company.

Despite the increase in energy costs, the Ecuadorian mining chamber, which represents companies like Ecsa-Ecuacorriente and Lundin, has acknowledged that the tariff hike is necessary due to the energy crisis. The increased electricity tariffs are expected to affect the operational costs of these mines, making them less competitive in the global market.

Ecuador's Mining Exports and the Role of Copper

Ecuador's mining sector plays a crucial role in the country’s economy. In the first half of 2024, Ecuador exported $688.8 million in copper concentrate, accounting for 42% of the country's total income from metal exports, which amounted to $1.6 billion. Copper export revenues saw a 12% increase from the previous year, highlighting the growing importance of copper as a key driver of the national economy.

The rise in power tariffs, however, may put the profitability of copper mining operations under strain, particularly for Mirador, one of Ecuador’s largest copper producers. While the mining chamber has voiced support for the tariff increase, it remains to be seen how these changes will affect long-term investment and growth in Ecuador's mining sector.