New US Tariffs Could Significantly Impact European Aluminium Scrap Exports

Aluminium Scrap

European aluminium recycling faces challenges as US tariffs on scrap imports rise.

The recent announcement of new tariffs by the United States government, particularly on aluminium scrap from Europe, is sending ripples through the European aluminium recycling industry. The sweeping tariff adjustments, which were introduced by US President Donald Trump on April 2, threaten to significantly reduce the flow of European aluminium scrap to the US. With these new measures, aluminium scrap will face a substantial tariff, making it less attractive for US buyers.

Impact of New Tariffs on Aluminium Scrap Exports

The new tariffs, set to take effect on April 9, place aluminium scrap imports from Europe under a 20% tariff, while imports from the UK will face a slightly lower 10% tariff. This comes after the previously established 25% tariff on primary aluminium imports from Europe, which was put in place last month. As a result, the cost of importing aluminium scrap from Europe will be nearly as high as that for importing primary aluminium, significantly altering the economics of aluminium recycling.

Historically, the US had been a major buyer of European aluminium scrap, with many industries using recycled aluminium as an alternative to primary aluminium. The new tariffs, however, will likely make scrap imports much less appealing to US buyers, pushing them to explore other options. This comes after previous expectations that the US would turn to aluminium scrap as a more affordable alternative to primary aluminium, which is now burdened by hefty tariffs.

Reactions from Industry Associations

Industry associations such as European Aluminium and Aluminium Deutschland have voiced concerns over the new tariffs, as they undermine the viability of aluminium scrap exports. These associations had earlier called for export restrictions on scrap due to fears that large-scale shipments of aluminium scrap could exacerbate market imbalances. With the tariffs in place, the likelihood of scrap exports to the US is expected to diminish significantly.

European Aluminium has indicated that it is closely monitoring the situation to determine its next steps regarding export restrictions. Aluminium Deutschland, however, has yet to comment on the matter.

What This Means for the Aluminium Recycling Industry

These new tariffs could lead to a shift in the global aluminium market. If European aluminium scrap becomes less competitive due to high tariffs, it may force US buyers to seek out other sources of aluminium scrap, possibly from domestic markets or alternative suppliers. Additionally, this could put pressure on European recyclers, who may face reduced demand for their products, forcing them to explore new markets or adjust their pricing strategies.

As the situation evolves, the aluminium recycling industry in Europe will need to adapt to these new challenges, either by lobbying for changes in tariff policies or by finding ways to remain competitive in an increasingly restricted global market.

Blanket US Aluminium Tariffs to Have Limited Impact on European Trade Flows

US Aluminium

Trump's 25% Tariff on All Aluminium Imports Will Affect US Consumers, Not European Markets

US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a blanket 25% tariff on all aluminium imports is expected to have minimal impact on European trade flows. This contrasts with earlier plans to impose tariffs specifically on imports from Canada and Mexico. According to market participants, the new approach is unlikely to disrupt European markets as much as the previous strategy might have.

Impact of Blanket Tariffs on Aluminium Trade

Trump’s new tariffs, which will apply to all aluminium imports, are set to be announced soon. This blanket tariff on steel and aluminium is expected to affect all exporting countries without distinguishing between suppliers. Canada, the UAE, and Argentina were the leading exporters of unwrought aluminium to the US last year, but the tariffs will now apply to everyone, making it difficult for countries like Canada to redirect excess supplies to Europe as initially anticipated.

Under the previous plan, markets predicted a shift in trade flows, with more Canadian aluminium potentially moving to Europe. This was expected to reduce European premiums due to an increase in supply, as demand in Europe remained weak. However, under the new tariff strategy, this shift is likely to be less pronounced. The global competitiveness of Canadian aluminium is diminished when tariffs apply universally, making aluminium from other regions, such as the Middle East and South America, less attractive in the US market.

Consequences for US Consumers and Domestic Production

The main consequence of these blanket tariffs will be higher costs for US consumers. While the tariffs could potentially drive up domestic production, increasing capacity will take years. In the meantime, US buyers will face higher prices for aluminium imports, particularly from Canada, as shipping times from these suppliers are shorter than those from more distant countries.

Market analysts believe that, despite the tariffs, US consumers will continue to import from Canada because of these logistical advantages. The blanket tariff strategy is unlikely to redirect a significant volume of Canadian aluminium to Europe, meaning the overall impact on European aluminium flows will be minimal.

Conclusion: A Shift in Costs, Not Trade Flows

In conclusion, Trump’s blanket tariffs on aluminium imports are expected to result in higher costs for US consumers but will have limited consequences for European trade flows. The market will likely experience some adjustments, but European aluminium premiums are not expected to drop significantly as a result of these changes.

India Aluminium Wire Rod Imports Face CVD Sunset Review on Malaysian Supply

India's Trade

India aluminium wire rod imports from Malaysia are under renewed trade scrutiny after the Directorate General of Trade Remedies started a sunset review of existing countervailing duties. The review comes ahead of the current duty’s expiry on 23 September.

India aluminium wire rod imports are strategically important because wire rod is a key semi-finished aluminium product for electrical conductors, cables, industrial wire and downstream manufacturing. Domestic producers argue that subsidised Malaysian supply could continue or recur if the duty expires.

India aluminium wire rod imports from Malaysia have been subject to countervailing duties since September 2021. The original levy followed a probe launched in June 2020 into alleged government subsidies supporting Malaysian producers.

Hindalco Industries, Vedanta and Bharat Aluminium Company filed the application that triggered the review. DGTR said the applicants represent a majority of India’s domestic output of the product covered by the duty.

Domestic Producers Warn of Subsidy and Trade Diversion Risk

The review covers aluminium wire and rod in coil form with diameters of 9-13mm. These products are used across electrical, cable and industrial supply chains, making them important to India’s aluminium downstream sector.

The applicants argue that Malaysian producers continue to benefit from government support. They identified 64 subsidy programmes, including 23 from the original investigation and 41 new schemes.

The alleged support includes tax breaks, export grants, preferential financing and below-market land and power rates. If confirmed, these measures could allow Malaysian producers to offer aluminium wire rod at artificially competitive levels.

Indian producers warned that removing the duty could harm the domestic industry. Their concern is that subsidised imports would pressure local pricing, reduce utilisation and weaken investment confidence in downstream aluminium capacity.

The case also includes a wider trade-flow risk. Recent increases in US Section 232 aluminium tariffs could divert Malaysian export volumes away from the US and toward India if the CVD lapses.

This matters because aluminium trade measures in one region can quickly reshape flows elsewhere. When one market becomes harder to access, exporters often look for alternative destinations with weaker trade barriers.

Review Could Shape India’s Downstream Aluminium Protection

The period of investigation for the sunset review is July 2024-December 2025. DGTR will assess whether the duty should be extended, modified or withdrawn.

Exporters, importers, users and the Malaysian government have been invited to submit comments through DGTR’s SETU portal. Their responses will help determine whether subsidised imports remain a material risk.

The outcome will matter for India’s aluminium value chain. Domestic producers want protection from subsidised competition, while downstream users may focus on supply availability and input cost.

India has been trying to strengthen local manufacturing across metals, electrical infrastructure and industrial materials. Maintaining fair competition in aluminium wire rod supports that policy direction, especially as demand grows from power transmission, cables, construction and manufacturing.

However, trade protection also needs balance. If duties raise input costs too much, downstream processors can become less competitive. The review will need to weigh domestic producer protection against the needs of users that rely on wire rod supply.

The case shows how aluminium is becoming more exposed to trade policy. Tariffs, subsidies, countervailing duties and regional trade diversion are now central to market positioning, not secondary issues.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s CVD review shows that aluminium downstream products are becoming part of a wider trade-defence strategy. The key issue is whether India can protect domestic wire rod capacity without raising costs for cable, conductor and electrical manufacturing supply chains.

Switzerland Adopts EU’s Russian Aluminium Ban in Sanctions Alignment

Russian aluminium

Federal Council Moves to Restrict Russian and Belarusian Aluminium Imports

Switzerland has adopted the EU’s Russian aluminium ban, aligning with Brussels’ 16th sanctions package targeting Moscow’s industrial exports. The Focus Keyphrase "Switzerland Russian aluminium ban" marks a significant shift in Swiss trade policy, historically characterized by neutrality, as the country intensifies its stance against Russian aggression.

The Federal Council announced it will implement all remaining relevant EU sanctions, including a ban on Russian primary aluminium imports and a prohibition on chromium ore exports to Russia. These measures aim to reduce materials that contribute to Russia’s military and technological advancement. Switzerland imported approximately 173,000 tonnes of unwrought Russian aluminium in 2023, according to Global Trade Tracker.

Belarusian Aluminium Also Targeted as Sanctions Widen

In parallel, Switzerland will enforce additional sanctions on Belarus, citing its complicity in the Ukraine war. These include a ban on Belarusian primary aluminium imports and expanded restrictions on dual-use and military-enhancing goods.

The Council emphasized that aligning sanctions with the EU is intended to prevent circumvention via Belarus, ensuring a more unified and effective European sanctions regime. This harmonization reduces the risk of Russian commodities entering EU markets indirectly through Swiss or Belarusian channels.

Strategic Impact on European Aluminium Supply Chains

The Swiss ban on Russian aluminium imports adds further pressure on Europe’s primary aluminium supply, which is already constrained by energy costs and limited regional production. Traders and manufacturers must now reassess sourcing strategies, particularly for unwrought aluminium, as the region seeks alternatives from non-sanctioned producers such as Norway, Canada, and the Middle East.

Meanwhile, the ban on chromium ore exports to Russia may impact specialty alloy production and stainless steel supply chains, especially those tied to aerospace and defense markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Switzerland’s adoption of the Russian aluminium ban underscores a growing consensus in Europe on restricting key industrial imports tied to Moscow. As sanctions converge and enforcement tightens, metals traders and manufacturers will need to recalibrate logistics and risk strategies in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.

Japan’s Aluminium Imports See Sharp Decline in August

Japan’s Aluminium

Japan experienced a significant drop in aluminium imports in August, both compared to the previous month and the previous year, due to a combination of slower demand, logistical issues, and disruptions caused by the late-August typhoon. The storm's impact, along with a suspension of construction projects, hit the domestic aluminium product market particularly hard.

Imports of primary aluminium fell by 15% month-on-month and by 10% year-on-year, reaching 85,992 tonnes. For the January-August period, total aluminium imports reached 693,627 tonnes, a 2.6% decline compared to the same period last year, according to customs data.

Production and Sales Impact

The Japan Aluminium Association (JAA) reported that domestic production of aluminium products in August also saw a 6.1% year-on-year decrease, producing 116,567 tonnes. Domestic sales were similarly affected, decreasing by 9.6% to 119,119 tonnes. This decline in sales is attributed to delayed construction plans following Typhoon Shanshan and decreased beverage consumption, which JAA links to rising living costs.

However, not all sectors faced declines. Car production in July increased by 3.3% year-on-year to 811,981 units, showing some resilience in automotive demand. In contrast, new housing projects fell slightly by 0.2%, reflecting a more subdued demand in the construction sector.

Japan’s imports of secondary aluminium alloy ingots (ADC12) were also down by 5% from the previous month, totaling 90,895 tonnes in August, according to the finance ministry.

Japan’s Aluminium Imports Decline Due to Weaker Demand in Automotive and Construction Sectors

Japanese aluminium imports saw a significant decrease in June, both on a monthly and yearly basis, driven by reduced demand in the automotive and construction industries. According to customs data, aluminium imports fell by 16.5% month-on-month and 14.3% year-on-year to 84,770 tons in June. This brought the total volume for January to June down by 4.5% year-on-year to 506,818 tons.

The Japan Aluminium Association (JAA) reported a 0.7% year-on-year decrease in the production of aluminium goods in June, totaling 144,775 tons. This decline followed three consecutive months of production growth. Domestic sales of aluminium products also fell by 3.2% year-on-year to 144,944 tons in June. Overall, the total production of aluminium goods in the first half of the year fell by 2.9% year-on-year to 826,365 tons, continuing a three-year downward trend.

The automotive industry, a significant consumer of aluminium, faced reduced demand due to car-testing scandals involving faulty safety data. Major manufacturers such as Daihatsu, Toyota, and Mazda suspended production for periods during the first half of the year to address issues with vehicle safety certification data. Consequently, total passenger vehicle output dropped by 9.8% year-on-year to 3.7 million units from January to June.

In the construction sector, the use of aluminium products fell by 10% to 172,438 tons in the first half of the year. This decline was attributed to project delays caused by rising material and labour costs and a preference for new materials over aluminium for window frames.

Additionally, Japan's imports of secondary aluminium alloy ingots (ADC12) were 77,414 tons in June, down by 2% month-on-month and 24% year-on-year, according to the finance ministry.

China's Aluminium Scrap Imports Expected to Climb as Import Curbs Ease

China's Aluminium Scrap

China's aluminium scrap imports are poised for a significant rise after the country announced the easing of import restrictions, effective November 15. The revised regulations include the addition of secondary high-purity aluminium and secondary deformed aluminium alloys to the list of approved imports, alongside secondary wrought aluminium alloys, which were authorized in 2020. These developments reflect China's strategic shift toward mitigating domestic aluminium scrap shortages and optimizing resource utilization.

Policy Easing and Its Implications

The new policy, announced in an official notice on October 23, sets stringent standards for imported scrap: a minimum aluminium content of 91% and a maximum impurity limit of 0.8%. Market participants believe this regulatory change could encourage smelters to increase their reliance on aluminium scrap feedstock, thereby lowering raw material costs amid persistent domestic shortages.

Challenges from Negative Import Arbitrage

Despite the optimistic outlook, China's aluminium import arbitrage has been predominantly negative since April. High import prices, tied to primary aluminium price negotiations, have dampened traders' enthusiasm. However, the introduction of this policy has generated renewed interest in the scrap market. A scrap trader noted that while current price pressures persist, the policy shift has ignited buying interest.

Recent Import Trends and Market Dynamics

From January to September, China imported 135.2 million tonnes of aluminium scrap, marking a 6.7% year-on-year increase, according to customs data. Meanwhile, domestic alumina prices have surged in recent months due to tight bauxite supplies and robust demand from aluminium producers. This price environment underscores the importance of cost-effective scrap imports to support the country’s aluminium industry.

With these policy adjustments, China aims to address supply shortages, stabilize aluminium markets, and ensure a more sustainable approach to raw material sourcing. However, market dynamics, particularly import pricing and arbitrage conditions, will play a critical role in determining the full impact of this regulatory shift.

European Aluminium Renews Call for Aluminium Scrap Export Restrictions

European Aluminium Scrap

US Tariff Hike Intensifies Scrap Supply Pressures in Europe

European Aluminium has renewed its push for export restrictions on aluminium scrap following US president Donald Trump’s decision to double tariffs on EU steel and aluminium imports to 50%. The association warns that the move could accelerate scrap outflows to the US, worsening an already tight supply situation in Europe.

The industry group first raised the proposal in 2018 when the US imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports. Scrap aluminium was excluded from the sanctions, making it an attractive alternative for US buyers seeking to avoid higher costs on primary aluminium. With the latest tariff hike, European Aluminium says the outflow has intensified, threatening domestic recycling and semi-fabrication operations.

Rising Global Demand for Aluminium Scrap Fuels Competition

Strong demand from buyers in India and other Asian markets has already strained European scrap supply. These buyers offer higher prices, benefiting from lower labour and energy costs and weaker environmental regulations. Additionally, primary aluminium producers in Europe are increasingly using higher-grade scrap to meet automotive customers’ sustainability goals.

European Aluminium reported that scrap exports to the US surged 273% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, already accounting for two-thirds of total exports in 2024. Without swift EU intervention, the association warns that the situation could escalate into a “full-blown scrap crisis,” jeopardizing the viability of Europe’s aluminium recycling and semi-fabrication industry.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The surge in US demand for European aluminium scrap highlights the vulnerability of supply chains to trade policy shifts. For the EU, balancing open trade with the need to safeguard strategic raw materials will be critical. Without targeted restrictions or incentives to retain scrap domestically, Europe risks undermining its own circular economy and low-carbon manufacturing goals.

EU to Launch Aluminium Safeguard Probe Amid Rising Import Pressure

EU Aluminium

New U.S. Tariffs and CBAM Adjustments Prompt EU to Rethink Aluminium Trade Policy

Brussels Acts to Shield European Aluminium Industry

The European Commission will launch a safeguard investigation on 19 March to assess the need for trade defense measures on aluminium imports. This move responds to fears that U.S. tariffs will redirect global aluminium flows into Europe.

Washington reintroduced 25% import tariffs on steel and aluminium on 12 March, prompting the EU to act. European producers risk losing U.S. market access while facing increased inflows of diverted metal. Unlike steel, aluminium is not yet protected by EU safeguard measures.

Since 2021, over half of Europe’s aluminium smelting capacity has been curtailed. Today, just 46% of EU aluminium demand is sourced domestically. The Commission warns that continued pressure from imports threatens the survival of remaining producers.

New 'Melt and Pour' Rule and CBAM Reform

In addition to safeguard measures, the Commission will implement a new “melt and pour” rule. This rule defines the origin of metal products based on where they were originally melted—not where they were later processed. It aims to block minimal transformations that allow products to bypass tariffs or dumping duties.

The carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) will also undergo revisions. The proposed update would extend the carbon levy to more aluminium- and steel-intensive downstream products. This adjustment addresses concerns that carbon-intensive imports could undercut EU-made goods, which comply with stricter climate rules.

The EU also plans to address carbon leakage. It will design compensation mechanisms for CBAM-regulated goods exported from the EU, with new anti-circumvention rules due in Q4 2025, before CBAM fully activates in 2026.

Scrap Export Restrictions and Demand Boosts Ahead

To secure domestic raw materials, the EU plans to tighten scrap metal export controls. The Commission will explore reciprocal restrictions on countries that limit scrap exports to the EU and may impose new charges on outbound scrap.

By the end of 2026, the EU will propose new demand-side targets for steel and aluminium usage in critical sectors like construction. These measures aim to support domestic producers while aligning with climate and circular economy goals.

India Aluminium Quality Control Rules Tighten for 2025 Rollout

India aluminium

Government Targets Low-Quality Imports with Stricter Compliance Measures

India aluminium quality control measures will become stricter from October 2025, as the government enforces a new Quality Control Order (QCO). The regulation targets several aluminium and alloy products, including welded irrigation tubes, EC-grade rods, and wrought bars under specific Indian Standards (IS 733:1983, IS 5484:1997, IS 16011:2012). This initiative seeks to prevent substandard imports from neighboring countries.

Phased Implementation and Enterprise Exemptions

The India aluminium quality control regulation includes exemptions for small and micro enterprises. Small businesses can continue importing non-compliant aluminium products until January 2026, while micro enterprises have until April 2026. Research and development imports of up to 200kg also remain exempt if not commercially sold. This phased implementation ensures a smoother industry transition without major supply disruptions.

Export-Focused Adjustments and Domestic Safeguards

The latest amendment allows exemptions for select imported aluminium products, while the 2024 amendment previously exempted domestically manufactured aluminium destined for export. Therefore, the policy balances trade facilitation with domestic industry protection. India aluminium quality control frameworks now aim to raise product standards, reduce unfair competition, and align with broader industrial policy goals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s aluminium QCO signals a broader industrial strategy that protects domestic producers while encouraging higher-grade imports. The transition period for SMEs reflects pragmatic governance, though it will require vigilance to prevent circumvention via R&D or micro-business loopholes.

China Aluminium Flat-Rolled Products Review Tests EU Trade Defence Balance

Aluminium Ingots

China aluminium flat-rolled products are back under EU scrutiny after the European Commission opened a partial interim review of anti-dumping measures on selected imports. The review follows a request from PalNet, an air cargo products manufacturer that says specific aluminium sheets used in aviation cargo equipment cannot be sourced adequately outside China.

The case focuses on aluminium sheets made from 7000-series alloys. These materials are used to manufacture unit load devices, or ULDs, for the civil aviation and air cargo sectors. PalNet argues that these products must meet strict sector-specific requirements and are not currently produced in sufficient volumes within the EU or by alternative non-Chinese suppliers.

The review highlights a sensitive industrial policy issue for Europe. Anti-dumping duties are designed to protect domestic producers from unfairly priced imports. However, when specialised downstream manufacturers depend on materials that are not readily available inside the bloc, trade defence measures can create unintended supply-chain pressure.

Aviation Supply Chains Depend on Narrow Aluminium Specifications

The aluminium 7000-series sheets at the centre of the case serve a specialised market. ULD manufacturing requires lightweight, high-strength materials that can meet aviation and air cargo performance rules. These requirements narrow the list of qualified suppliers and make substitution difficult.

PalNet claims the existing EU anti-dumping duties on China aluminium flat-rolled products could threaten the survival of the only Union-based ULD manufacturer. That claim places the Commission in a difficult position. It must weigh upstream trade protection against downstream industrial continuity.

The issue is not simply about import prices. It is about whether Europe can maintain manufacturing capability in a niche aviation supply chain while also enforcing trade measures against Chinese aluminium products. If local supply is unavailable or insufficient, duties may raise costs without creating meaningful European replacement capacity.

EU Review Could Signal a More Targeted Approach to Aluminium Duties

The partial interim review could lead to a narrower interpretation of existing measures if the Commission accepts PalNet’s arguments. The investigation is expected to conclude within 12 months, giving EU authorities time to assess supply availability, technical requirements, and the economic impact on downstream users.

The case may also become a reference point for other sectors that rely on highly specific aluminium products. Europe imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese aluminium flat-rolled products in 2021, but industrial demand has become more complex as aviation, transport, defence, and energy-transition supply chains require specialised alloys.

For China aluminium flat-rolled products, the review does not signal a broad reversal of EU trade defence policy. Instead, it suggests Brussels may need more precise tools when a protected upstream category overlaps with materials that European manufacturers cannot source competitively or reliably elsewhere.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This review shows the limits of broad trade measures in specialised metal supply chains. Europe can protect aluminium producers, but it also needs enough flexibility to keep strategic downstream manufacturers alive.

India Aluminium BIS Certification Raises Quality Bar for Domestic Supply

BIS

India aluminium BIS certification is becoming a formal market requirement as the government enforces the aluminium and aluminium alloy products Quality Control Order 2026. The order mandates Bureau of Indian Standards certification for a wide range of aluminium products sold in the domestic market.

The regulation took effect on 11 March 2026 and replaces the earlier 2025 order. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry introduced the measure to improve product quality, strengthen consumer safety, and standardise aluminium products across India’s industrial supply chain.

India aluminium BIS certification will apply to products such as rods, bars, sheets, and composite panels. These materials are used across infrastructure, engineering, electrical equipment, packaging, aerospace, and household applications, making the order significant for both producers and downstream manufacturers.

Aluminium Producers Face New Compliance Timelines

Manufacturers must now secure a valid BIS licence before selling covered aluminium products in India. Certification will follow Scheme-I of Schedule II under the BIS regulations, 2018, which requires compliance with relevant Indian Standards and testing procedures.

The government has introduced phased deadlines to reduce disruption across different enterprise sizes. Critical aluminium products face immediate compliance, while general engineering aluminium products will follow a staggered schedule.

Large enterprises must comply by 1 December 2026. Small enterprises will have until 1 March 2027, while micro enterprises must comply by 1 June 2027. This phased structure gives smaller manufacturers more time to adapt their testing, documentation, and quality control systems.

Quality Control Order Reshapes India’s Aluminium Market

India aluminium BIS certification will likely raise the entry barrier for low-quality or inconsistent aluminium products. This could support more disciplined domestic production and reduce the circulation of non-standard material in key industrial sectors.

The order also has trade and procurement implications. Importers and domestic suppliers will need to align product specifications with Indian Standards before selling into the local market. However, exemptions remain for exports and research activities.

The R&D exemption allows up to 200kg of annual imports without BIS certification, provided the material is not sold and is later disposed of as scrap. This gives laboratories, universities, and product development teams limited flexibility while keeping commercial sales under the certification framework.

For India’s aluminium industry, the order signals a stronger policy focus on quality, traceability, and industrial standardisation. As demand grows from infrastructure, power equipment, packaging, aerospace, and manufacturing, certified aluminium supply will become more important for competitiveness and reliability.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s aluminium Quality Control Order is not just a standards update. It is a market-filtering mechanism that could reward compliant producers and pressure weaker suppliers out of higher-value industrial channels.

CBAM certificate exemption debate exposes EU steel and aluminium fault lines

Assofermet

European metals companies are intensifying calls for a CBAM certificate exemption as the carbon border regime nears full implementation. The demand for a temporary CBAM certificate exemption reflects deep concern that missing benchmark values and default parameters could destabilise trade in steel and aluminium. Without clarity on CBAM certificate obligations, EU importers are being asked to place orders blind, with no way to predict final embedded carbon costs.

Importers warn of blind CBAM exposure and supply risk

Assofermet argues that a CBAM certificate exemption is needed for imports cleared from 1 January 2026 until several months after default values are published. The association stresses that the absence of final CBAM benchmarks forces buyers to commit to steel and aluminium imports today without knowing future certificate prices. As a result, many traders see the current framework as an unacceptable risk, especially for long-lead contracts and financially constrained small and mid-sized firms.

The proposed CBAM certificate exemption would cover a transition window of up to five months after the release of default values. During this period, importers would not need to surrender CBAM certificates, allowing them to honour existing supply contracts and avoid sudden cost shocks. However, policy uncertainty remains high, as Brussels continues to refine CBAM methodologies, rules for recognising third-country carbon prices, and the interaction with free ETS allocations. Meanwhile, downstream users fear that simultaneous measures, including “melted and poured” origin rules and potential extensions of steel and aluminium safeguards, could combine with CBAM to sharply reduce available import volumes.

Downstream steel users fear a pincer movement on competitiveness

Metals distributors and processors warn that CBAM certificate obligations, when combined with new safeguards, risk forming a regulatory pincer on the EU manufacturing base. Assofermet says the current steel and metals action plan prioritises primary producers while overlooking the needs of re-rollers, processors and trading firms that depend on diverse import flows. If imports drop too sharply, many downstream players could face supply gaps, higher input costs and further margin compression in an already weak economic environment.

A parallel warning comes from steel distributors who highlight a surge in imports of steel-intensive finished goods that fall outside current trade defence instruments and CBAM coverage. Products such as drive axles, electric motor components, fabricated assemblies and metal furniture embed significant steel content but enter the EU under less restrictive regimes. Industry groups argue this asymmetry accelerates deindustrialisation: raw and semi-finished steel face tight controls and rising costs, while finished imports gain a competitive edge. Many therefore call not only for targeted CBAM certificate exemption windows, but also for broader reform to extend CBAM and trade defence tools to steel-containing goods with high import growth and proven steel intensity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The struggle over CBAM certificate exemption shows how climate policy can collide with industrial realities when timelines and technical details are misaligned. Unless benchmarks, default values and scope definitions are finalised quickly, the EU risks pushing critical downstream manufacturers into supply insecurity just as it needs them to invest in green technologies. A more calibrated rollout, including temporary exemptions and better coverage of steel-intensive finished goods, will be essential to protect both decarbonisation goals and Europe’s industrial backbone.

EU CBAM aluminium benchmark lowered for primary and secondary imports

Aluminium

The EU CBAM aluminium benchmark will fall for primary and secondary imports under a leaked draft. The benchmark for primary aluminium drops to 1.423t CO2 per tonne from 1.464t. The secondary benchmark falls to 0.091t CO2 per tonne from 0.139t for scrap-rich metal.

What the new benchmarks mean across the aluminium value chain

The new benchmark directly changes how much emissions value importers can deduct from CBAM liability. The benchmark sets the “free allocation” amount that reduces an importer’s payable charge once CBAM starts in 2026. As a result, a lower benchmark can raise the remaining CBAM exposure when other factors stay constant.

The EU also adds fixed benchmark uplifts for downstream aluminium products. Most intermediate products, like bars, wire, plate, and sheet, add 0.056t CO2 per tonne to the base benchmark. End-of-chain products, like containers and foil, add 0.166t CO2 per tonne to the base benchmark.

Default values raise the stakes for data quality and compliance

The EU will apply CBAM default values when importers lack adequate origin-specific emissions data. These defaults estimate embedded emissions and can drive higher payable charges. Meanwhile, the compliance risk increases if authorities suspect circumvention.

Consultancy Redshaw Advisors warned about losing access to actual emissions reporting. Lead CBAM advisor Dan Maleski said circumvention findings could remove “actual data” rights for an entire country. Therefore, importers may face forced reliance on default values even when producers track real emissions.

The draft lists notable default values for key exporting countries and product types. Unwrought aluminium from China carries 3t Scope 1 CO2 per tonne, with intermediate products at 4.88t and foil at 5.56t. Aluminium from India carries 1.87t, with intermediates at 3.44t and foil at 4.13t. United Arab Emirates also sits at 1.87t for unwrought, but lower values apply downstream at 2.22t and 2.66t. In addition, the EU plans a 10% annual mark-up to defaults for three years to cover data gaps.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The lower EU CBAM aluminium benchmark increases the premium on verified, audit-ready emissions data. Therefore, producers that document low-carbon power and process efficiency can defend pricing. Meanwhile, high default values will punish weak traceability and accelerate supplier reshuffling.

European Aluminium Industry Pushes for Scrap Export Restrictions

Al scrap

Rising Pressure for Scrap Export Controls

The European aluminium scrap market is facing mounting pressure as supply tightness collides with strong export demand. Industry groups such as European Aluminium and Aluminium Deutschland have intensified lobbying for export tariffs to secure domestic scrap supply. Their push comes as the US raises tariffs on primary aluminium imports, potentially boosting American demand for European scrap.

Exports of European aluminium scrap surged in recent years, particularly to Asia. The EU and UK together shipped 1.57mn tonnes in 2024, a 23pc increase compared with 2022. India and China accounted for the bulk of these flows, while exports to the US, though smaller, grew sharply. European Aluminium warned that rising US interest, combined with current supply shortages, risks creating a “full-blown scrap crisis.”

Industry Debate and Market Risks

However, not all stakeholders agree that restrictions are the solution. Scrap merchants argue that supply shortfalls are driven more by weak industrial activity than by exports. Low production in automotive, construction, and machinery has reduced available grades like aluminium turnings, which are essential for European secondary smelters. They caution that tariffs may not address these structural issues and could trigger reciprocal trade barriers, complicating Europe’s own scrap imports.

At the same time, many producers identify high energy costs as the bigger threat to smelter viability. Merchants note that no smelter closures have been directly tied to scrap shortages, while escalating electricity prices have forced cutbacks. Despite this, calls for restrictions continue to gain traction, reflecting a broader trend of resource nationalism as countries prioritize domestic recycling over exports.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The debate over aluminium scrap export restrictions underscores a critical tension between free trade and industrial security. While tariffs may stabilize domestic availability, they risk distorting markets and inviting retaliation. The EU must weigh these risks carefully, especially as global competition for low-carbon feedstock intensifies. Energy costs, more than scrap scarcity, remain the sector’s existential challenge.

EU aluminium scrap export restriction moves toward spring 2026 adoption

EU aluminium scrap

The European Commission launched work on an EU aluminium scrap export restriction to curb “scrap leakage.” Maroš Šefčovič said the measure should arrive in spring 2026. The EU aluminium scrap export restriction aims to secure feedstock for recyclers and downstream producers.

European industry groups have pushed for action for years. However, the pressure intensified after Donald Trump imposed tariffs on primary aluminium imports. Many buyers may shift toward more scrap to reduce duty exposure. Therefore, European exporters could see stronger pull from overseas markets.

Aluminium scrap flows already show the scale of the challenge. The European Union and the United Kingdom exported around 1.6mn tonnes of aluminium scrap in 2024. That volume rose almost 25% versus 2022 and about 60% versus 2019. As a result, policymakers now frame scrap retention as an economic security issue.

Export tariffs or quotas look more likely than a ban

The final instrument is not yet defined. Officials and industry leaders say a full ban is unlikely. However, export tariffs or quotas could deliver immediate friction on outbound scrap.

Industry executives welcomed the signal from Brussels. Hydro extrusions head Paul Warton called the move encouraging. Meanwhile, European Aluminium director-general Paul Voss described current outflows as a market failure. Therefore, the consultation phase will test where the market sees real bottlenecks.

The commission will run a public consultation and gather evidence. That process will shape how any tariffs or quotas apply. Meanwhile, Aluminium Deutschland has also argued for tools that keep scrap in Europe. As a result, the EU aluminium scrap export restriction will likely focus on volumes and verification.

Scrap retention supports low-carbon aluminium and industrial resilience

Scrap retention directly supports lower-carbon aluminium production. Recyclers typically cut energy use versus primary routes, depending on power mix. Therefore, stable scrap supply improves decarbonisation pathways for European manufacturers.

Trade measures could also reshape pricing and contracts. Scrap exporters may face lower netbacks, while domestic buyers may gain supply security. However, overly strict rules could disrupt collection incentives and cross-border trade. As a result, policymakers must balance supply security with healthy recycling economics.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe will not decarbonise aluminium without reliable scrap access at scale. Meanwhile, tariffs and quotas must avoid weakening collection and sorting investment. Therefore, the best design links any restriction to reinvestment in recycling capacity.

Germany Pushes EU to Impose Aluminium Scrap Export Tariffs

Aluminum Scrap

Rising US demand sparks supply concerns and threatens Europe’s circular economy framework

Aluminium Deutschland Warns of Scrap Outflow Risk

Germany's aluminium industry group, Aluminium Deutschland, has urged the EU to impose aluminium scrap export tariffs. This demand follows the United States’ decision to implement a 25% tariff on primary aluminium imports, while keeping aluminium scrap exempt from the tariff.

As a result, US buyers are likely to switch from importing primary aluminium to sourcing cheaper scrap — particularly from Europe. This shift could lead to a serious shortage of scrap for European recyclers, who rely on stable domestic supply for their operations.

US-EU Price Gap Accelerates Market Arbitrage

The arbitrage between US and EU aluminium prices has widened sharply in recent months. According to market data, the premium gap surged from $110/t in November to nearly $700/t in early May 2025. This creates a strong incentive for exporters to redirect scrap to the US market, further tightening EU supply.

Aluminium Deutschland emphasized that this trend could undermine Europe’s recycling industry. President Rob van Gils called for “swift and decisive action” to avoid dismantling years of progress in circular economy infrastructure.

Europe Faces Growing Scrap Scarcity

Europe's aluminium scrap supply is already strained. Sluggish industrial activity has lowered fresh scrap generation, while Asian demand remains strong, forcing EU recyclers to compete globally. If the EU does not act, companies could face escalating shortages, threatening decarbonisation goals and raw materials security.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Germany’s call for aluminium scrap export tariffs reflects a growing geopolitical competition over raw materials. As secondary aluminium becomes a substitute for tariffed primary metal, the EU risks losing strategic feedstock to global arbitrage. Scrap policy will increasingly define the success or failure of Europe’s industrial climate goals.

 

Aluminium Deutschland warning: German aluminium industry faces job cuts and relocation risk

Aluminium Deutschland

The Aluminium Deutschland warning signals deep stress across Germany’s aluminium value chain. More than 25% of companies plan or made job cuts, the group said. Another 13% consider moving production abroad. High power prices, weak demand, and CBAM costs drive the pressure.

Production has fallen to 76.5–87% of 2021 levels. Extruded and rolled products show the sharpest declines. Meanwhile, plants face weak orders in automotive and machinery. Therefore, investment decisions keep shifting toward lower-cost regions.

Output shrinks as extruded and rolled products lag 2021

Semi-finished output stayed broadly stable year on year in the third quarter. The sector produced about 593,000 tonnes in Q3. January–September production reached about 1.8 million tonnes. However, volumes still trail 2021 levels.

Rolled-product output rose 2% year on year to 1.4 million tonnes in January–September. That output still sits 13% below the same 2021 period. Extruded output fell 1% year on year to 362,000 tonnes. That figure remains 23.5% below the same 2021 period.

CBAM and policy gaps raise costs for imports and producers

CBAM will lift costs across the European Union market. Europe imports about 70% of its aluminium, so costs can spread fast. CBAM could add €30–446 per tonne to imported aluminium, depending on carbon intensity. As a result, buyers will reassess sourcing strategies and premium structures.

Weak growth expectations keep the outlook fragile. Companies do not expect a near-term turnaround, the association said. Rob van Gils warned that capacity cuts and job losses remain likely. Therefore, the Aluminium Deutschland warning points to a competitiveness test for Europe’s core metals base.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Germany can protect German aluminium jobs by lowering industrial power costs and speeding permits. Meanwhile, producers should expand recycling and verified low-carbon billet to defend margins. Therefore, Europe needs grid investment and predictable CBAM guidance to retain capacity.

EU-India FTA Could Improve Indian Aluminium Access, but CBAM Still Limits the Upside

Hindalco Industries

The EU-India FTA could improve the position of Indian aluminium suppliers in Europe. The deal would reduce EU tariffs on Indian base metal imports to zero from 10pc. That change could give Indian aluminium exports a stronger commercial opening. As a result, the EU-India FTA may improve competitiveness for producers such as Hindalco and Vedanta.

The tariff change matters because Indian suppliers have faced a clear disadvantage in Europe. Duty-free suppliers such as Norway, Iceland, and Canada already held an edge. Removing the tariff could narrow that gap. Therefore, Indian aluminium suppliers may enter the EU market on more equal terms.

However, the agreement does not remove every barrier. EU CBAM will still apply to imported goods, even after the tariff cut. That means carbon costs will remain a major factor in future trade economics. Consequently, the EU-India FTA improves access, but does not create a fully open market.

Indian Aluminium Exports Could Gain on Tariffs but Still Face Carbon Pressure

Indian aluminium exports could benefit immediately from lower tariff friction. Price-sensitive buyers in Europe may find Indian material more attractive under a zero-duty regime. That could support better trade flows from India to the EU. Meanwhile, producers are still waiting for final clarity on aluminium in the completed legal text.

CBAM remains the deeper long-term issue. The European Commission has already confirmed that the FTA offers no exemption from the carbon border measure. Importers will still face carbon-related obligations under EU climate policy. Therefore, Indian aluminium suppliers must think beyond tariffs and prepare for emissions competitiveness.

This is why industry optimism remains cautious rather than aggressive. Lower tariffs help, but they do not neutralize non-tariff costs. A trader in the article described CBAM as a continuing trade barrier. As a result, the full commercial benefit of the EU-India FTA may prove smaller than the headline suggests.

EU-India FTA Arrives as Indian Aluminium Exports to Europe Have Already Declined

Indian aluminium exports to the EU have already weakened in recent years. Rising domestic demand in India has reduced export availability. Lower export incentives have also weighed on overseas shipments. Therefore, the industry is entering this trade opportunity from a lower export base.

The recent numbers show that decline clearly. India’s primary aluminium exports to the EU fell sharply in 2024 from the previous year. Shipments in January to November 2025 also remained subdued. Consequently, the EU-India FTA may help stabilise exports first before driving a major surge.

The real opportunity will depend on how Indian producers balance three pressures. They must manage domestic demand, EU carbon costs, and international price competition. Tariff relief helps with one of those problems. However, it does not solve the other two. Therefore, Indian aluminium suppliers may gain an edge, but only within tighter structural limits.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal improves trade access, but it does not remove the real future test. European aluminium trade will increasingly depend on carbon performance as much as tariff policy. For Indian suppliers, the EU-India FTA is helpful, but CBAM will still decide who wins long term.

Tight Supply: The Key Driver in Europe's Aluminium Market

European aluminium markets remain sluggish, showing little recovery from the typical summer slowdown. With demand in key sectors like automotive and construction failing to rebound, trading activity has yet to pick up, leaving traders and distributors with limited sales opportunities. Despite this, premiums held steady throughout September, driven primarily by the tight supply rather than demand fluctuations, a trend that has persisted since early 2023.

A key factor behind the limited supply has been a series of production cuts across Europe over the past two years. Additionally, Russian aluminium has been largely absent from the market due to both official sanctions from countries like the UK and the US, and self-sanctioning by consumers. This has compounded the strain on availability, as China has aggressively increased its imports from international suppliers, further squeezing European access to aluminium.

Although premiums initially edged back to a range of $320-340/t earlier in the summer, they have since remained stable, flatlining between $320-430/t throughout June, July, and August, even as demand declined. Many expected that autumn would bring an uptick in demand, particularly from the automotive sector, but no such recovery has occurred. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has been particularly affected, with its industrial production showing significant declines, especially in the construction sector, which has struggled throughout the decade. The automotive sector, led by giants like Volkswagen, has also suffered, with discussions of factory closures further dimming the outlook.

One market analyst noted, "There has been no bounce-back from the end of the summer. Stockists and distributors still have empty inboxes, which is very unusual for this time of year." Demand in both the automotive and construction sectors remains weak, yet premiums have not moved, reflecting the continued tightness in supply. China’s increasing aluminium imports, spurred by its near-cap on domestic production and energy efficiency mandates, have further limited supply in Europe.

Moreover, tightness in the alumina market, the primary input for aluminium production, has added additional pressure. A significant production drop from key supplier Rio Tinto, alongside high freight costs and limited exports from regions like the Middle East and India, have all contributed to the constrained supply environment. With demand expected to remain muted well into 2025, the European aluminium market seems likely to stay tight, making any small uptick in demand a potential trigger for premium increases.