Global Stainless Steel Output Sees Growth in 2024

Stainless Steel

Stainless Steel Production Increases Worldwide in 2024

Global stainless steel production saw an impressive rise in 2024, with output increasing across all regions. According to the World Stainless Association, stainless steel melt shop production rose by 5.4% in the first nine months of the year. This increase brings total production to 46.1 million tons (mn t), reflecting strong demand for this critical material used in a variety of industries worldwide.

Regional Growth Across the Globe

Notably, several countries and regions saw substantial gains. The combined output from Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa, and South Korea surged by 11.2%, reaching 5.86 million tons. This increase highlights the rising production capabilities of emerging and established markets alike. In North America, the U.S. saw a significant boost in production, climbing 9.1% year-on-year to reach 1.5 million tons.

Europe also contributed to the global rise, with its stainless steel production increasing by 4.9%, totaling 4.69 million tons. Even in Asia, beyond China and South Korea, production expanded by 8.1%, reaching 5.39 million tons.

China’s Contribution to Global Production

China, which remains a dominant player in global stainless steel production, saw its output rise by 3.4% year-on-year, reaching 28.63 million tons in the first three quarters of 2024. Despite slower growth compared to other regions, China's output still accounts for a significant portion of the global total, underlining its continued importance in the steel industry.

Conclusion: A Positive Outlook for Stainless Steel Production

The global rise in stainless steel production reflects a robust recovery and ongoing demand across industries. With positive trends in multiple regions, the stainless steel market appears poised for continued growth. As production capacities increase worldwide, the outlook for the global steel market remains strong, driven by both traditional and emerging markets.

Japan Increases EV Subsidies to Promote Green Steel Usage

Japan EV

New Incentives to Drive Adoption of Environmentally Friendly Steel

Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (Meti) has announced an increase in electric vehicle (EV) subsidies starting April 1st, aiming to promote the use of green steel. The new measure will provide up to ¥50,000 ($321) in additional financial support, expanding the subsidy to a total of ¥900,000 per EV, depending on the model and size, if it is manufactured with green steel. The initiative is part of Japan's broader green transformation policy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Meti has secured a budget of ¥110 billion for the EV subsidy program. The main objective of this increase is not only to boost EV demand but also to support the domestic steel industry. Green steel, though more expensive to produce, has the same functionality as conventionally produced steel, which emits higher GHGs. Meti is addressing concerns among domestic steel producers, who fear the higher production costs of green steel may deter consumers.

Shifting Steel Production to Electric Arc Furnaces

Japan's steel industry is making efforts to reduce GHG emissions, especially through the transition to electric arc furnaces (EAFs). However, EAF plants require significant investment and face various technical challenges. Japan's largest basic oxygen furnace (BOF) producer, Nippon Steel, began commercial operations of an EAF in 2022, and JFE Steel plans to launch its own EAF by 2027. Additionally, Kobe Steel intends to replace one of its BOFs with an EAF facility by 2027.

Despite these advancements, the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF) reported a 3.4% decline in EAF-produced crude steel in 2024, with EAF production accounting for 26.2% of the country’s total crude steel production.

Challenges in Boosting Green Steel Production and EV Sales

Although Meti's measures aim to increase green steel production, there are doubts about their effectiveness, given the sluggish performance of the domestic EV market. Sales of domestic passenger EVs in Japan plummeted by 33% in 2024, largely due to reduced demand for local EV brands. EVs accounted for only 1.5% of total passenger vehicle sales in Japan, down by 0.7 percentage points from the previous year. This decline raises questions about whether the increased subsidies will be enough to stimulate demand for both green steel and EVs.

Global Steel Output Drops in July as China Sees Sharp Decline

Global crude steel production saw a notable decline in July, falling by 4.7% year-on-year to 153 million tonnes, according to data released by the World Steel Association (Worldsteel). The overall decrease was primarily driven by a significant reduction in output across Asia, with China, the world's largest steel producer, experiencing a substantial drop.

China's steel production fell by 9% in July, contributing to an over 2% decline in its output for the first seven months of 2024. The drop in Chinese production is largely attributed to weak domestic demand, which has hampered the industry throughout the year.

In contrast, India's steel production continued to grow, buoyed by strong domestic demand, especially from the automotive sector. Indian steel output rose by 7.2% from January to July, with a notable 12% increase in July alone, despite a surge in steel imports reaching a five-month high.

Europe also saw a modest increase in steel production in July, with Germany leading the way. Other European nations recorded slight upticks in output, supported by new production capacity coming online in Turkey.

Meanwhile, the Middle East's steel production fell in July but remained higher overall for the January-July period compared to the previous year. This regional performance was influenced by a sharp drop in Iranian output due to extreme temperatures and frequent power outages.

China’s Predatory Steel Exports : A Threat to Latin America

The Latin American steel industry is grappling with a severe crisis precipitated by China’s predatory trade practices. The influx of cheap Chinese steel has flooded the market, imperiling local producers' livelihoods. Gabriela Fajardo Mejia, an expert in international relations at the University of Navarra, highlighted in her interview with Diálogo Américas that China’s steel overproduction endangers 1.4 million jobs across Latin America’s steel sector, compelling numerous companies to cease operations and lay off workers. Furthermore, Chinese steel production often bypasses established environmental and quality standards, with transparency regulations being routinely ignored.

Henry Ziemer, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), pointed out that China's slowdown in real estate and construction has diminished domestic steel demand. Consequently, Chinese producers are compensating for reduced domestic sales through aggressive export strategies. With the U.S. market becoming increasingly inhospitable for Chinese steelmakers, they are now targeting Latin American countries, which present fewer trade barriers, to dispose of their surplus inventory.

The Chinese government's subsidies for steel production and exports during the pandemic exacerbated the issue, leading to a global proliferation of low-cost Chinese steel. In retaliation, Mexico, Chile, and Brazil have significantly raised tariffs on Chinese steel imports to safeguard their domestic industries, and other nations are expected to follow suit. Alejandro Wagner, the former Secretary-General of the Latin American Steel Association (Alacero), indicated in a BBC interview that the influx of inexpensive Chinese steel has caused significant damage to Latin American steel industries, forcing several major companies to halt their operations.

In March, Chilean steelmaker CAP suspended operations at its Huachipato plant due to the unsustainable business environment created by dumped Chinese steel. Operations resumed only after the Chilean government imposed substantial tariffs on Chinese steel. Similarly, Fabio Galan, president of Colombian steelmaker Acerías Pazdelrio, remarked on the devastating economic impact of cheap Chinese steel imports and called for fair competition.

Reports also suggest that Mexico’s iron ore mines, previously plundered by organized crime cartels, were pivotal in transporting stolen ore to China, highlighting the detrimental effects of China’s opaque and unfair trade practices.

Brazilian steel producer Gerdau temporarily laid off workers at its São José dos Campos plant in response to the unfair competition from Chinese steel. CEO Gustavo Werneck emphasized that this action was merely the initial step in tackling the surge of cheap Chinese steel imports.

Fajardo Mejia underscored the subsidies Chinese steel companies receive, enabling them to lower costs without adhering to quality and environmental standards. She also noted the considerable environmental impact, revealing that Chinese steel production emits 45% more CO2 per ton than Latin American production.

As a countermeasure, imposing tariffs on Chinese steel could escalate trade tensions between Latin American countries and China, with potential retaliatory actions from China, known for its coercive diplomacy. Historical instances, such as China’s bans on Argentine soybean products and Canadian canola seeds, exemplify possible consequences.

CSIS researcher Ziemer highlighted that China, the world’s largest steel producer, generates more steel than the combined output of the next nine largest producers, influencing international prices and destabilizing Latin American economies through dumping practices. He proposed that the current scenario offers an opportunity for the U.S. to collaborate with Latin American countries to counteract China’s unfair trade practices and safeguard domestic industries.

Global Steel Output Declines 4.7% in September

World Steel

Global crude steel output fell by 4.7% year-on-year in September, reaching 143.6 million tons (mn t), according to data from the World Steel Association (Worldsteel). The decline was largely driven by reduced production in China, which accounts for 62% of the world’s steel output.

China’s Steel Struggles

China’s steel production dropped 6% to 77mn t in September, primarily due to weak domestic demand and multi-year lows in steel prices at the beginning of the month. While government stimulus efforts helped improve prices and production later in the month, the sharp drop in the first week outweighed the recovery. Despite this, production in October is expected to rise as steel prices continue to recover.

India: Steady but Facing Oversupply

India, the second-largest steel producer, maintained steady output compared to the previous year, driven by robust domestic demand. The country contributed nearly 10% of global steel production in September. However, as Indian mills expand capacities, there is concern about potential oversupply, with domestic demand unlikely to absorb the increased output. The festive season may temporarily boost consumption in the coming months.

Japan and Iran See Significant Declines

• Japan: Steel output fell by 5.8%, marking the seventh consecutive monthly decline. This was attributed to contracting demand from the auto and construction sectors.
• Iran: The most significant drop globally occurred in Iran, where production plummeted by over 40%. Severe power shortages hindered operations throughout most of September, although production normalized in the final week.

Outlook for Global Steel

As China’s recovery and India’s growth remain pivotal to global steel dynamics, the market faces challenges from oversupply, fluctuating demand, and economic uncertainties. October’s performance will be closely watched as producers adapt to these evolving conditions.

South32 Gemco Manganese Exports Resume After Cyclone Megan Recovery

South32

South32 Gemco manganese exports restarted as the Australian metal producer shipped its first ore cargo since early 2024 from the Northern Territory mine. The South32 Gemco manganese exports resumption follows extensive recovery operations after Cyclone Megan damaged the export wharf and flooded mine areas in March 2024, forcing a four-month suspension that disrupted global manganese supply chains and affected key customers including GFG Alliance's Tasmania ferromanganese plant.

Production Recovery Targets Pre-Cyclone Output Levels

South32 Gemco manganese exports began with the loading of 56,606 tonnes aboard the Singapore-flagged Stenia Colossus on May 19th, bound for Tianjin, China according to marine analytics firm Kpler. A second shipment of 54,078 tonnes will depart on the Panamanian-flagged Loch Crinan on May 28th, demonstrating operational momentum recovery. These initial shipments mark the end of a 15-month export hiatus that severely impacted Australian manganese supply to Asian steel markets.

Meanwhile, South32 plans production ramping at Gemco's 6 million tonne annual nameplate capacity facility throughout the 2025-26 financial year. The company achieved 5.9 million tonnes production in 2022-23, the last complete year before Cyclone Megan disrupted operations. Northern Territory government projections indicate 5 million tonnes expected production over the coming year, though South32 has not released official 2025-26 guidance.

Customer Supply Chain Disruptions Highlight Market Dependencies

However, the extended Gemco shutdown created severe supply chain disruptions for downstream customers dependent on Australian manganese ore. GFG Alliance's Liberty Bell Bay ferromanganese plant in Tasmania moved to limited operations on May 19th due to manganese ore supply shortages. This operational reduction demonstrates the critical importance of Gemco's production for regional ferromanganese manufacturing capabilities.

Therefore, the export resumption addresses urgent supply needs across Asia-Pacific steel and ferroalloy markets that experienced significant manganese ore shortages during Gemco's closure. Chinese steel mills particularly depend on Australian manganese imports for steel production, making Gemco's recovery essential for regional supply chain stability. The mine's strategic location in Northern Territory provides efficient shipping access to major Asian industrial centers.

Infrastructure Recovery Enables Full Operational Restart

Furthermore, South32 completed extensive infrastructure repairs including export wharf reconstruction and comprehensive mine dewatering operations during January-March 2025. These recovery investments ensure sustainable long-term operations while improving resilience against future extreme weather events. The company's commitment to full production restoration demonstrates confidence in manganese market fundamentals and customer demand recovery.

As a result, Gemco's operational restart strengthens Australia's position as a critical manganese supplier to global steel industries while reducing supply chain vulnerabilities exposed during the extended shutdown. The successful recovery operations establish operational precedents for managing extreme weather impacts on mining infrastructure. Market participants welcome the supply restoration as global steel production continues recovering from pandemic-related disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The resumption of South32's Gemco manganese exports illustrates both the vulnerability of critical mineral supply chains to extreme weather events and the interconnected nature of global steel production networks. The 15-month disruption's impact on downstream ferromanganese producers like Liberty Bell Bay demonstrates how single-mine shutdowns can cascade through entire industrial sectors, highlighting the need for greater supply chain diversification and resilience planning in critical minerals markets.

US Steel Gary Tin Mill Restart Targets Domestic Tinplate Supply Security

US Steel

US Steel Gary Tin Mill production is set to restart in early 2027 as the integrated steel producer moves to rebuild domestic tin coated steel supply. The idled facility is part of US Steel’s wider Gary Works complex in Indiana.

The US Steel Gary Tin Mill has roughly 500,000 short tons of idled capacity across two production lines. The mill has been offline since 2022, but the company now plans to bring it back after maintenance, equipment inspection, material procurement and workforce preparation.

US Steel Gary Tin Mill restart costs are estimated at $15mn-20mn. The investment is relatively modest compared with a greenfield project, but the industrial significance is larger because tin coated steel has become a more sensitive domestic supply issue.

The restart comes as US customers seek more dependable local supply for packaging and industrial applications. It also reflects a wider shift toward trade protection, domestic manufacturing resilience and reduced exposure to imported coated steel products.

Trade Cases Support Domestic Tin Coated Steel Production

US Steel framed the restart as a response to domestic tin demand in a more protectionist trade environment. The company said customers are increasingly focused on long-term domestic supply security.

On 9 April, US Steel and the United Steelworkers union filed an antidumping duty case against China, Taiwan and Turkey. The case covers imports of tin and chromium coated sheet steel.

A separate countervailing duty case was also filed against subsidised tin coated steel products from China. These trade actions could support domestic producers if authorities determine that imports are unfairly priced or subsidised.

The timing is important. Restarting the Gary Tin Mill would give US Steel more capacity to serve customers if duties raise import costs or reduce import availability.

Tin coated steel is used in food and beverage packaging, aerosol products and oil filtration goods. These are not speculative markets. They are established industrial and consumer supply chains where reliability, quality and delivery timing matter.

The restart also gives US Steel a stronger position in value-added flat steel. Tinplate and coated sheet require specific finishing capability and customer qualification, making them more specialised than commodity hot-rolled or cold-rolled products.

Packaging and Industrial Buyers Seek Reliable Local Supply

The Gary Tin Mill restart reflects the growing importance of domestic supply in packaging materials. Food and beverage packaging depends on consistent access to tin coated steel, especially for cans and other shelf-stable products.

Aerosol products and oil filtration goods also rely on coated steel for corrosion resistance, formability and product protection. These applications require stable quality and predictable supply from qualified mills.

Domestic buyers have become more sensitive to import risk. Tariffs, antidumping cases, logistics disruption and geopolitical uncertainty can all affect material availability and pricing.

US Steel’s restart could help reduce that risk by returning idled capacity to the market. However, the impact will depend on how smoothly the company completes maintenance and prepares the required workforce.

The early 2027 timeline also matters. Buyers facing uncertainty in 2026 will not see immediate supply relief, but the restart could improve medium-term market confidence.

For the US steel industry, the project shows how idled finishing capacity can regain strategic value under trade protection. Instead of building new capacity from scratch, companies can reactivate existing assets when market conditions and policy support improve.

The broader message is clear. Domestic steel supply security is expanding beyond primary steelmaking. Coated, finished and application-specific steel products are also becoming part of the industrial resilience debate.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The US Steel Gary Tin Mill restart shows how trade protection can revive idled downstream steel capacity. The key question is whether domestic buyers will commit enough demand to support the restart beyond the current tariff and trade-case cycle.

China's Stainless Steel Production Reaches New Heights in 2024

Stainless Steel

Record Output Driven by Robust Feedstock Supply and Global Demand

China's stainless steel industry achieved a record-high melt shop output in 2024, bolstered by a solid supply of feedstock and a strong demand from international markets. This surge in production underscores China's expanding influence in the global stainless steel market, positioning it to capitalize on growing consumption trends.

Diverse Product Range and Market Dynamics

The production dynamics varied across different stainless steel series, reflecting diverse market demands and applications. The 300 series, known for its high nickel content, saw an increase in output, mainly due to expanded production capacities in Shandong and new capacities in Fujian. In contrast, the 200 series—which contains lower nickel and higher manganese, typically used in construction and manufacturing—experienced a slowdown due to a sluggish real estate sector. Meanwhile, production of the 400 series, which is chrome-based, increased significantly as it began to replace some of the demand for the 200 series.

International Trade and Future Prospects

In 2024, China's stainless steel exports grew by 21.9%, reaching 5.04 million tonnes, supported by competitive international pricing and the availability of raw materials, particularly ferronickel. Imports of ferronickel, crucial for stainless steel production, also rose, largely due to increased shipments from Indonesia. Looking ahead to 2025, China's stainless steel production is expected to continue growing. This forecast is supported by a drop in prices for 304 stainless steel cold-rolled coil and the ongoing availability of cost-effective Indonesian ferronickel, which keeps Chinese products competitively priced in the global market.

China’s Steel Industry Rebounds in September

China’s Steel

China’s steel purchasing managers' index (PMI) climbed 8.6 points from the previous month to reach 49 in September, signaling a halt to three months of contraction and indicating increased activity in the steel industry, according to the China Steel Logistics Professionals Committee (CSLPC). Although still below the expansionary threshold of 50, the rise suggests an improving outlook for the sector.

Steel production saw a notable boost, with the sub-index for production jumping 19.9 points to 54.8, the highest level in four years. This increase was driven by rising demand and several mills resuming production after voluntary cutbacks or maintenance shutdowns.

Steel Production on the Rise

The demand for steel typically surges in September, and this year was no different. The sub-index for new domestic orders rose 8.7 points to 47.2, reflecting stronger but still contracting demand. Despite the pickup, raw material purchase prices increased only slightly, reaching 27.7, still well below the 50-point expansion threshold.

China's broader manufacturing PMI also improved, rising by 0.7 points to 49.8, supporting the upward momentum in steel production. Industry experts predict that the October peak season will see further growth, supported by favorable fiscal policies and the easing of domestic real estate regulations. In particular, demand in the housing market is expected to rise as government measures stimulate both primary and second-hand home sales.

Looking ahead, the CSLPC expects continued production increases at steel mills in October, driven by higher anticipated demand, low inventory levels, and the potential for profits. Raw material prices are also projected to climb, while steel prices may rise moderately as old rebar standards are phased out.

China steel industry stabilisation plan targets growth, discipline and greener output

China Steel

China’s new China steel industry stabilisation plan signals a renewed push to manage growth, capacity and pricing discipline. The government aims for around 4pc added value growth in 2025-26 while phasing out inefficient mills and banning new crude steel capacity. As a result, Beijing is trying to balance supply and demand through market-based elimination rather than another blunt production crackdown.

The China steel industry stabilisation plan prioritises competitive, higher-quality producers over weaker players. Authorities will curb “unfair competition” and “disorderly” low-price behaviour that has weighed on margins across the sector. Therefore, the plan supports consolidation around strong mills and seeks a more sustainable pricing environment for both long and flat steel products.

At the same time, the plan highlights technological upgrading, high-grade steel, and raw material security as core pillars. It calls for expanded investment to modernise production lines, accelerate low-carbon technologies and deepen the green energy transition. This innovation agenda links the China steel industry stabilisation plan directly to national strategies on industrial upgrading and decarbonisation.

Market reacts as China steel industry stabilisation plan lifts sentiment

Steel futures and spot prices reacted quickly to the announcement, even as underlying demand stayed soft. January rebar futures rose by 0.85pc to Yn3,185/t, and more than 10 mills lifted ex-works rebar offers by Yn30-50/t. However, physical trading volumes in rebar and flat products remained subdued despite the firmer sentiment.

Coking coal markets showed a more cautious response. January coking coal on the Dalian exchange closed just 0.12pc higher at Yn1,217.5/t. Many participants are still assessing how strictly the China steel industry stabilisation plan will be enforced and what it means for blast furnace operating rates. For now, sentiment in domestic coking coal remains stable rather than bullish.

Recent production data underline why Beijing is acting now. China’s crude steel output in August fell by 0.7pc year on year to 77.36mn t. January-August crude steel output dropped 2.8pc to 671.81mn t, reflecting weaker construction and real estate demand. In 2024, the top five producing provinces saw crude steel output fall 3.2pc to 522.73mn t, still accounting for 52pc of national output.

Supply-side reform echoes and the road ahead for China’s steel sector

President Xi Jinping has already signalled a political push against “disorderly low-price competition” and outdated capacity. Many market participants see the new plan as an echo of the 2015-17 supply-side reforms that aggressively cut overcapacity. However, most small, inefficient mills were already removed in that earlier cycle, leaving fewer obvious targets today.

Therefore, the next phase will likely focus on quality, emissions and efficiency rather than headline tonnage cuts. The China steel industry stabilisation plan emphasises precise capacity and output control instead of blanket production caps. That approach favours large, integrated groups with the capital to invest in green technologies, premium steel grades and digitalisation.

At the same time, Beijing wants to maintain enough capacity to support infrastructure, manufacturing and strategic industries. Balancing overcapacity risks with growth and employment remains a delicate task. How effectively the China steel industry stabilisation plan navigates this tension will shape global iron ore, coking coal and finished steel flows over the next two years.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China is shifting from a crude tonnage focus to a curated steel ecosystem built around fewer, stronger, greener champions. For global metals markets, that means more policy-driven volatility in the short term, but a likely structural tilt toward higher-value steel exports and more disciplined capacity at home. Suppliers of iron ore, coking coal and low-carbon steel technologies should all watch how fast policy turns into enforcement on the ground.

EU Steel Industry Faces Key Policy Shifts: A Call for Concrete Measures

EU Steel

The mood among European policy makers regarding the steel industry has notably shifted, with increasing support for the sector’s future. According to Axel Eggert, director-general of Eurofer, the European steel industry association, policymakers are beginning to recognize the importance of addressing the growing challenges in global steel production. However, while this shift in mood is encouraging, Eggert emphasized that these positive words must be followed by tangible actions.

Rising Political Support for EU Steel Industry

Eggert pointed out that there is more political backing for the European steel sector, especially as lawmakers become increasingly aware of the massive overcapacity in global steel production, particularly CO2-intensive steel. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that global steel capacity will grow by 157 million tons over the next three years, which will likely negate the decarbonization efforts of the EU steel industry.

In response, the European Parliament has called for a European steel action plan, which has been embraced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. However, Eggert stressed that while these statements are promising, they must be followed by concrete measures to ensure the long-term sustainability of the industry.

Green Steel and Public Procurement as Key Measures

One of the critical measures that Eggert advocates for is the implementation of public procurement for green steel. With the EU's ambitious decarbonization targets — a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050 — Eggert emphasized that EU governments should lead by example. This means prioritizing green steel in public sector construction, vehicles, and other products, which would support European producers committed to decarbonizing their operations.

Global Overcapacity and Trade Distortions Impacting EU Steel

The steel industry crisis is largely driven by global overcapacity and low demand in Europe, exacerbated by high energy costs. Compounding this issue is the low-priced steel being exported by countries like China, Japan, and India, which depresses global markets. China’s exports, in particular, have been an issue for EU steel producers, as the country benefits from state subsidies, leading to significant trade distortions.

Eggert discussed how the EU has implemented anti-dumping measures on stainless steel from Indonesia, but Indonesia has circumvented these by exporting processed steel to third-party countries like Taiwan, Vietnam, and Turkey, which then re-export the products back to the EU. This tactic, along with the support from Chinese investments in Indonesia’s steel industry, has made Indonesia’s steel sector one of the largest globally.

EU Trade-Defense Measures: Need for Improvement

Eurofer has called for enhanced EU trade-defense measures to tackle issues such as dumping and excessive capacity from third countries. Eggert emphasized the need for improved steel safeguards and more effective enforcement of existing trade defense instruments. Currently, anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel are too low, undermining the efficacy of EU trade policies.

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Concerns

The EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) has been another point of contention. Third countries are already looking to export steel from their lowest CO2-emitting plants to avoid paying CBAM costs. Eggert advocated for including indirect CO2 emissions (Scope 2 emissions) in the CBAM, particularly for stainless steel, which is a major contributor to indirect emissions.

Scrap Export Concerns and India's Decarbonization Challenge

Finally, Eggert addressed concerns from India regarding the potential for a European export ban on scrap metal. While the EU does not currently have a scrap export ban, Eggert pointed out that India itself has export restrictions on scrap and needs to focus more on decarbonizing its domestic steel sector. He also warned that if India delays its decarbonization efforts until 2070, the EU will face a significant disadvantage in the global steel market.

EUROFER Revises 2024 EU Steel Consumption Forecast Downwards

The European Steel Association (EUROFER) has revised its 2024 steel consumption forecast for the European Union, citing an array of economic challenges. These include the protracted period of elevated interest rates, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, resultant energy crises, inflation, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions in the Red Sea region due to the Israel-Palestine conflict.

In its recent "2024-2025 Economic and Steel Market Outlook" report, EUROFER predicts a modest 1.4% year-over-year increase in nominal steel consumption within the EU, reaching 127 million tons in 2024. This is a notable downward adjustment from the previously anticipated 3.2% increase to 130 million tons.

The report also recalibrates the 2025 forecast, lowering the expected growth from 5.6% to 4.1%, thereby predicting a total consumption of 133 million tons, down from the prior forecast of 137 million tons.

The first quarter of 2024 witnessed a 3.1% decline in EU nominal steel consumption year-over-year, totaling 31.9 million tons. This early-year contraction is expected to dampen the forecasted recovery for the remainder of the year. Significant uncertainties persist in steel consumption due to supply chain disruptions linked to the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, unprecedented surges in energy prices, and escalating production costs. Despite a gradual anticipated improvement towards the year's end, actual steel consumption is projected to remain below pre-pandemic levels.

EUROFER has also adjusted growth projections for steel demand industries downward. The Steel Weighted Industrial Production (SWIP) index fell by 1.9% in the first quarter of 2024, a stark contrast to the previous quarter's 0.5% rise. The decline in production across the EU’s steel-using sectors is attributed to the sustained impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, pervasive manufacturing weaknesses, global geopolitical tensions, and the long-term repercussions of the energy crisis.

The SWIP index decline highlights a persistent downturn in the construction, machinery, appliance, and metal product sectors, partially mitigated by continued growth in the automotive sector. The construction sector, which constitutes 35% of EU steel consumption, has been in recession since the third quarter of 2022, declining for seven consecutive quarters (-2.3%) through the first quarter of this year. High interest rates, labor shortages, and escalating material prices are expected to perpetuate the construction sector's downturn throughout the year.

The report states, "The positive trend in steel demand industries, which commenced post-pandemic, began to decelerate from the second half of 2022 due to rising energy costs and labor shortages following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continuing through the fourth quarter of last year. This year’s deteriorating economic and industrial outlook for the EU is driven by high inflation and resultant interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB), with particularly adverse effects from the prolonged construction sector recession, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and worsening manufacturing conditions due to high interest rates."

The report continues, "Amid persistent adverse factors, the growth rate for steel demand industries is expected to decline to -1.6% in 2024, down from the previous forecast of -1%, with a rebound to 2.3% anticipated in 2025."

Notwithstanding the lowered forecasts for steel consumption and demand industries, import volumes have risen. According to the report, EU steel imports, including semi-finished products, increased by 12% year-over-year in the first quarter, mirroring the previous quarter's 11.3% rise.

Axel Eggert, EUROFER's Secretary General, emphasized, "While the EU's steel demand industries face a protracted downturn due to various adverse factors, import market share has risen significantly. This jeopardizes both European steel production and the associated clean technology value chains, necessitating urgent action at the EU level. The European Commission must swiftly conclude a European Clean Industry Agreement focused on the steel sector."

China Calcium-Silicon Production Restarts as Ningxia Shuntai Responds to Higher Prices

Ningxia Shuntai

China calcium-silicon production has started to recover after Ningxia Shuntai resumed output following several months of equipment maintenance. The company restarted production as calcium-silicon prices rebounded in early March, supported by lower inventories and renewed restocking from steel mills and cored-wire producers.

Ningxia Shuntai had started maintenance on 10 October 2025 because weak demand and thin margins made continued production less attractive. The restart shows how quickly ferroalloy producers can respond when prices improve and downstream buyers return to the market.

China calcium-silicon production remains constrained overall, despite Shuntai’s return. Output from the country’s six major alloy smelters is still expected to fall in January-March because several producers remain offline or under maintenance.

Higher Prices Encourage Shuntai to Resume Ferroalloy Output

Ningxia Shuntai restarted calcium-silicon production after market conditions improved in early March. Falling inventories helped lift prices, while downstream steel mills and cored-wire producers increased procurement.

Calcium-silicon is used in steelmaking as a deoxidizer, desulfurizer and inclusion modifier. It is also used in cored wire applications, making demand closely tied to steel production, alloy treatment and foundry activity.

The restart suggests that current price levels are now more workable for Shuntai. However, the broader market remains sensitive to margins because calcium-silicon production depends on electricity costs, raw material prices and downstream steel demand.

Production Suspensions Keep China’s Calcium-Silicon Supply Tight

China calcium-silicon production from the six major domestic smelters — Shenghua, Ketong, Shuntai, Shenyu, Yongfeng and Jiamin — is expected to reach 18,200t in January-March. That would be down 16% from 21,700t a year earlier.

The decline reflects production suspensions and maintenance at several producers. Inner Mongolia Shenyu Ferroalloys began maintenance on 1 March and is expected to cut output by about 2,600t before work ends on 1 May.

Jiamin Ferroalloys has remained offline since an explosion on 8 January 2023. Shaanxi Fugu Yongfeng Ferroalloys has also been offline since 30 April 2024 because of high spot inventories and weak margins.

These supply constraints could support prices if steel mill restocking continues. But if demand weakens again, producers may remain cautious about ramping output aggressively.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Shuntai’s restart shows that China’s calcium-silicon market is still driven by short-cycle margin decisions. The key question is whether steel mill restocking reflects real demand recovery or only inventory rebuilding after a period of tight supply.

Trade Measures to Dominate Steel Industry in 2025: Focus on Imports and Global Overcapacity

China Steel Factory

Trade protection measures have been the focal point of the global steel industry throughout 2024, with little indication of this trend slowing down in 2025. Steel producers, industry associations, and governments worldwide are increasingly advocating for stronger import barriers to safeguard domestic markets and improve the competitiveness of their industries. In particular, European steel mills have been at the forefront of this movement, calling for more robust action to combat what they view as unfair imports and growing overcapacity in the global market.

European Steel Industry Pushes for Stronger Import Protection

Eurofer, the industry association for European steel manufacturers, has been particularly vocal about the need for stronger trade defence instruments. The association has urged the European Union to implement short-term emergency measures, including import tariffication, to curb the influx of low-cost steel products. Eurofer's stance has been largely driven by the EU’s ambitious decarbonisation goals, with the bloc committing billions of euros in investment. Steel producers argue that the EU's current measures are insufficient, particularly in light of increasing steel imports from countries with lower production costs and fewer environmental regulations.

Significant progress has already been made, with Eurofer helping secure changes to the EU’s safeguard system for key products like hot-rolled coils (HRC) and wire rods. Additionally, the EU anti-dumping investigation targeting several HRC suppliers has gained traction, and further investigations are planned on downstream steel products. As European steel suppliers continue to collect evidence of unfair trade practices, more scrutiny is expected on countries like China, India, and Vietnam.

The Impact of Global Overcapacity and Chinese Steel Exports

The issue of global steel overcapacity has also been a major concern. The OECD has raised alarms about the growing steel production capacity, projecting a 158 million tonnes per year increase in global capacity between 2024 and 2026. This expansion, however, comes at a time when global steel demand remains uncertain. Despite this, steel exports from non-OECD countries have been recovering since 2023, particularly from China, whose steel exports surged by 22.6% from January to November 2024.

China has also been exporting record volumes of semi-finished steel, despite the country’s preference for exporting higher-value products. As China continues to ramp up exports, it has attracted the attention of both European and global policymakers, leading to new protectionist measures targeting Chinese steel. This includes potential investigations and pending duties on Chinese steel, which could affect up to 15 million tonnes per year of exports.

Countries like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia are also seeing increases in steel exports, contributing to the global capacity glut. Turkey, a major market for Chinese steel, has already imposed duties on imports from China, India, Russia, and Japan in response to the increasing influx of steel from these regions. The EU is similarly considering the inclusion of Indonesia in its safeguard measures due to the country’s rising steel exports to Europe. From July to October 2024, Indonesia exported 494,650 tonnes of HRC to the EU, surpassing the previous half-year period, a trend that is expected to continue.

Investigations and Measures Targeting Global Steel Exporters

The growing export volumes from India and Vietnam, along with the rise in Indonesia’s exports to Europe, have prompted investigations into dumping practices in these countries. The EU has already initiated anti-dumping investigations on steel products from Egypt, Japan, India, and Vietnam, with the preliminary results of these investigations expected in March 2025. If these investigations lead to findings of unfair trade practices, retroactive duties could be applied, further tightening global trade conditions.

In response, producers are gearing up for a potential wave of new safeguard measures and anti-dumping duties. Countries that are impacted by these measures may look to retaliate, creating a complex global trade landscape for steel. As trade protectionism increases, the global steel market is expected to undergo significant shifts in the coming years.

Global Stainless Steel Production Rises by 6.3% in First Half of 2024

Worldstainless

A Global Outlook on Stainless Steel Production

Global stainless steel production surged by 6.3% year-on-year, reaching 30.37 million tonnes (mn t) in the first six months of 2024, according to data released by Worldstainless, a Belgium-based industry research and development association.

Regional Performance Highlights

• China: The world's largest producer of stainless steel recorded a 5.9% increase, with production rising to 18.75mn t between January and June 2024.
• Asia (excluding China and South Korea): Other Asian nations showed notable growth of 9% year-on-year, producing 3.62mn t.
• Europe: The weakest regional performer, Europe reported a marginal growth of just 0.3% year-on-year to 3.14mn t.
• Other Regions:

1. The group of Brazil, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, and Indonesia collectively grew output by 10% year-on-year, reaching 3.84mn t.
2. The United States posted robust growth of 9%, with output increasing to 1.03mn t.

Indonesia's Crucial Role

Industry analysts emphasize that Indonesia's stainless steel output will be pivotal in shaping global market trends for the rest of 2024 and into 2025. The country’s expansion in production capacity and investments in the steel sector position it as a key driver of future growth.

Implications for the Market

The global rise in stainless steel production reflects an upswing in industrial demand, with particular strength in the Asian and American markets. However, Europe's stagnation underscores challenges in its industrial sector, including energy costs and economic uncertainties. The anticipated Indonesian growth could stabilize or even further boost global output, depending on demand trends and regional dynamics.

Eramet Manganese Ore Volumes Rise Despite Lower Gabon Mine Output

Eramet Manganese

Eramet manganese ore volumes increased in the first quarter as stronger transportation and external sales offset lower mine production from Comilog’s Moanda operations in Gabon. The French multi-metals group transported 1.61mn t of manganese ore in January-March, up 16% from a year earlier.

Eramet manganese ore volumes are on course to reach 6.4mn-6.8mn t for the full year. This suggests that logistics performance and inventory movement remain strong despite weaker quarterly production.

Eramet manganese ore volumes matter because Gabon is one of the world’s key manganese ore supply sources. Stable exports from Comilog support alloy producers in steelmaking markets, especially outside China.

Manganese ore production at Moanda fell by 11% on the year to 1.59mn t in the first quarter. However, external ore sales rose by 10% to 1.36mn t, showing that market deliveries remained resilient.

Alloy Output Supports Manganese Chain

Eramet’s manganese alloy production rose by 4% on the year to 168,000t in the first quarter. Sales increased by 6% to 158,000t.

The company produces manganese alloys across six sites in Norway, the US, France and Gabon. This gives Eramet exposure to both upstream ore and downstream alloy markets.

Manganese alloys are essential inputs for steelmaking. Ferro-manganese and silico-manganese improve strength, hardness and deoxidation performance in steel production.

The increase in alloy output indicates that downstream demand remained sufficient to support production. This is important at a time when some regional steel markets are under pressure from weak construction activity and cautious buying.

Eramet’s integrated position gives it flexibility. Higher transported ore volumes support external customers, while alloy production allows the company to capture additional value further along the manganese chain.

India Demand Offers Support as China Remains Weak

Eramet expects manganese ore demand to increase slightly in 2026. Growth is expected to come from higher alloy production in India and other non-China markets.

India is becoming more important in the manganese market because of steel production growth and alloy capacity expansion. Stronger Indian alloy output can support ore demand even when Chinese consumption is weaker.

China remains a pressure point. Eramet expects manganese ore demand in China to stay under pressure, reflecting slower steel demand and weaker market conditions.

This creates a more regionalised manganese outlook. Suppliers with access to growing alloy markets outside China may be better positioned than those heavily dependent on Chinese demand.

For Eramet, the key issue will be maintaining transported volumes while improving mine output. If Moanda production recovers and alloy demand remains steady, the company can strengthen its position across both ore and alloy markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Eramet’s first-quarter figures show that manganese supply strength depends as much on logistics and sales execution as mine output. India’s alloy growth could become a more important demand anchor if China’s steel-linked manganese consumption remains weak.

Japan's Kanto Region Anticipates Steel Production Boost in July

Japan's Kanto region is set to see a rise in steel production this July, with electric furnace steelmakers forecasting a 2.5% increase in crude steel output. Industry data reveals that 14 companies, operating 15 plants in the region, plan to produce 360,000 tons of crude steel, up from 351,000 tons in the same month last year, marking an increase of 9,000 tons.

This uptick represents the first rise in production in seven months, reversing a trend since December. Compared to June, production is also expected to grow by 2.5%.

Two of the 15 plants, including Chiyoda Steel, are planning to ramp up production. Conversely, three plants, including JFE Steel, will cut output, while the remaining ten will maintain their current production levels.

Reflecting this production increase, the steelmakers' scrap iron purchase plans for July are expected to grow to 366,000 tons, a 5.4% increase from 347,000 tons in June, and a 1.8% rise from 360,000 tons in July last year.

As of the end of June, scrap iron inventories across the 15 plants stood at 160,000 tons, down 8.4% from 175,000 tons the previous month.

This anticipated rise in production and scrap iron purchases signals a positive shift for the industry, indicating recovering demand and strategic adjustments by steelmakers in the Kanto region.

China's Major Steel Producers Cut Output in August

China's Steel

China's largest steel-producing provinces reported significant decreases in output during August, with Hebei province leading the drop at 18 percent. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the five key provinces—Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong, Liaoning, and Shanxi—collectively produced 40.3 million tons of steel in August. This represents a 13 percent decline from the previous year, accounting for 51.7 percent of the nation's total steel output for the month.

Hebei, the top steel producer in China, saw its output shrink to 14.89 million tons, an 18 percent decrease. Jiangsu's production fell by 12 percent, reaching 9.35 million tons. Shandong and Shanxi reported similar year-on-year declines of 12 and 13 percent, respectively, while Liaoning's steel output dropped marginally by 0.7 percent to 5.65 million tons.

The nationwide steel output also followed the downward trend, declining by 10.4 percent compared to the same period last year. In the first eight months of 2024, China's steel production decreased by 3.3 percent, with the top five provinces experiencing a 5.6 percent reduction.

Steel Prices and Demand

Several factors contributed to this cutback in production, including falling steel prices and weak demand. Shanghai’s hot-rolled coil (HRC) ex-warehouse prices hit a seven-year low in August, dropping by 260 yuan per ton ($36.90) from the beginning to the end of the month. The decline in prices and the sluggish real estate market forced many steel mills to reduce production to clear out inventory based on old standards before the new national rebar standard takes effect in September.

However, experts expect Chinese steel mills to increase production in September after August's maintenance period, as demand is likely to recover from the summer slump.

India Gas Supply Crunch Raises Steel Supply Risk as Mills Cut Output

India Steel

India gas supply crunch is beginning to disrupt the country’s steel sector, with secondary producers and gas-dependent mills facing rising operational pressure. The crisis has intensified because India sources 67% of its LNG imports from the Middle East, where the US-Israel war with Iran has created major supply disruption.

India gas supply crunch is hitting smaller induction furnace-based steelmakers first. Several producers are rationing available gas, reducing output, and struggling to meet customer requirements. The government has also prioritized domestic natural gas supply for households, which has further tightened availability for industrial users.

India gas supply crunch now threatens more than steelmaking alone. It is affecting cutting operations, maintenance work, downstream galvanizing, packaging materials, plastics, propane, ammonia, limestone logistics, and imported thermal coal costs. As a result, the steel value chain faces a broader cost and supply shock.

Gas-Based Steelmakers and Secondary Mills Face Uneven Pressure

Gas exposure varies sharply across India’s steel industry. Smaller induction furnace-based mills in Mandi Gobindgarh, Punjab, have already reduced production where they rely on piped natural gas. Some manufacturers in the region can meet only about half of customer requirements, while smaller mills in Gujarat are fulfilling about 70% of demand.

Secondary steel producers that use scrap and direct-reduced iron are under particular pressure. These mills often operate with thinner margins and less procurement flexibility than large integrated producers. Rising gas costs, limited availability, and weaker scrap economics can quickly force production cuts.

The pressure is not uniform across regions. Producers in Jalna, Maharashtra, said they had not yet cut production because of gas shortages. However, imported thermal coal prices have affected most secondary mills, and imported scrap has become less viable. This means even coal-based mills are not fully protected from the wider input-cost shock.

Gas-based DRI operations face one of the clearest risks. ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India is viewed as vulnerable because about 65% of its 9mn t/yr steelmaking capacity uses the gas-based DRI-electric arc furnace route. Market participants expect a potential near-term supply reduction if gas disruption worsens.

Downstream Steel and HRC Prices Face New Volatility

The downstream steel sector is also exposed to the gas shortage. Galvanized steel producers rely heavily on propane, and some integrated mills have already reduced galvanized output marginally while conserving existing gas supplies. Smaller re-rollers are at greater risk of curtailing or stopping operations.

The disruption has also reached trade and service centers. Some plate suppliers are unable to fulfill pending orders because their cutting processes depend on gas. This shows how energy shortages can spread beyond melt shops and rolling mills into finishing, processing, and distribution.

Steel prices may remain firm if input costs stay elevated. Indian domestic hot-rolled coil prices have already risen sharply, with 2.5mm-4mm HRC assessed at Rs54,300/t ex-Mumbai on 6 March, up 17% from mid-December 2025. Higher gas, coal, propane, ammonia, and logistics costs could keep pressure on finished steel prices.

However, demand risk is also rising. Major steel-consuming industries may face the same gas constraints, which could reduce their production and lower steel procurement. This creates a difficult market balance: supply costs are rising, but demand traction remains uncertain as buyers wait for clearer conditions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s steel sector is facing an energy-security stress test. The biggest risk is not only lower steel output, but a chain reaction across DRI, galvanizing, cutting, re-rolling, and downstream demand.

China Vanadium Consumption Set to Rise in 2026 as VRFB Demand Accelerates

Vanadium

China vanadium consumption is expected to rise in 2026 as vanadium redox flow batteries, steelmaking, lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and denitration catalysts increase demand. The strongest growth is likely to come from VRFB-based energy storage, where projects are entering a more concentrated construction and commissioning phase.

China vanadium consumption reached 125,900t of vanadium pentoxide equivalent in 2025, up 6.1% from 2024. The market is now shifting from a steel-dominated structure toward a more diversified demand base.

China vanadium consumption still depends heavily on steel, but the share of energy storage has expanded quickly. Steel accounted for 70.9% of total demand in 2025, down from 87.9% in 2021. Energy storage rose to 20% of total use from only 4% over the same period.

This change is strategically important for vanadium producers. Demand is no longer driven only by construction steel, rebar and alloy additions. It is increasingly tied to long-duration energy storage, grid stability, batteries, catalysts and higher-value industrial applications.

VRFB Storage and Steel Demand Drive the 2026 Consumption Outlook

Vanadium demand from VRFB energy storage is expected to increase sharply in the second half of 2026. China’s National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration issued a notice on 30 January to improve the generation-side capacity price mechanism, supporting longer-duration storage.

This policy direction matters because VRFB technology is better suited to long-duration applications than many short-duration battery systems. VRFBs offer long cycle life, high safety, deep-discharge capability and easier electrolyte reuse.

China’s VRFB installations in 2026 are preliminarily estimated at 4-5GWh. This forecast reflects projects already under construction and the availability of high-purity vanadium for electrolyte production.

That installation level would require around 32,000-40,000t of V2O5 equivalent. This would represent an increase of 8,000-16,000t from the previous year, making VRFBs the largest source of incremental vanadium demand.

The growth builds on rapid progress in 2025. VRFB projects with completed electrolyte filling totalled about 3,037.5MWh last year, up 1,027.3MWh from 2024. China’s cumulative VRFB installed capacity reached about 6,064.5MWh by the end of 2025, with an average duration of 4.12 hours.

The market is now moving from pilot-stage expansion to larger system deployment. As more long-duration storage projects reach construction and commissioning, vanadium electrolyte demand could become more predictable.

Steel remains the largest end-use sector. Vanadium demand from China’s steel industry is expected at 92,000-95,000t in 2026, up 3,000-6,000t from 2025.

The increase is tied to stronger demand from machinery, energy, shipbuilding, automotive and rail sectors. These ferro-vanadium end-use segments are expected to grow by around 1.2% in 2026.

The steel demand signal was already visible in the first quarter. Steel-sector vanadium consumption reached around 22,600t, up 1,800t from a year earlier.

Rebar could also provide support. Output of higher-grade steel reinforcement bar is expected to rise as infrastructure investment accelerates. Production licence rules for construction rebar took effect on 1 April, while quality traceability requirements have expanded.

These rules should raise the share of vanadium-nitrogen micro-alloyed hot-rolled rebar. That would support demand for vanadium-nitrogen alloy, especially in higher-strength construction products.

The 2025 steel data show a more complicated picture. Vanadium consumption in the steel sector reached around 89,300t, up 1,700t from 2024. However, vanadium-nitrogen alloy consumption fell by 3.8% to 36,690t because rebar’s share of vanadium use declined.

China’s rebar output fell to 186.3mn t in 2025, down 4.5% from a year earlier. This reduced vanadium demand from traditional construction steel.

Ferro-vanadium performed better. FeV50-equivalent consumption rose by 10.4% to around 39,985t, supported by stronger downstream output in several industrial sectors.

Automotive production reached 34.778mn units in 2025, up 9.8%. Civil steel shipbuilding totalled 52.295mn deadweight tonnes, up 18%. Excavator output rose by 17% to 379,643 units.

Machine tool output also increased. Metal-cutting machine tool production rose by 9.7%, while metal-forming machine tool output increased by 7.2%. These sectors helped offset weakness in rebar.

Vanadium intensity also rose. China’s vanadium use per tonne of crude steel increased to 51g of vanadium metal equivalent in 2025 from 48g in 2024. Rebar intensity edged up to 152.5g, while other steel products rose to 26.6g.

LFP cathode materials will provide another smaller but fast-growing demand source. Vanadium consumption from LFP cathodes is estimated at 2,000-2,500t in 2026, assuming a typical 0.2% V2O5 addition rate.

That would be up by 1,000-1,500t, representing growth of 100-150%. The base remains small, but the rate of increase is significant.

Denitration catalysts should also support demand. Chemical-sector vanadium consumption is expected at around 7,000t in 2026, up about 500t, or 7.7%. Demand will be supported by catalyst replacement, new coal-based thermal power projects and higher sulphuric acid output.

In 2025, chemical-sector vanadium use was around 6,500t, up 200t from 2024. Titanium-alloy-related consumption fell by around 400t, tracking weaker Chinese titanium product exports.

Supply Growth Remains Limited by Feedstock and Cost Pressure

China’s vanadium supply remains highly concentrated, but output growth is not straightforward. The country accounted for 68.8% of global vanadium capacity in 2025 and 72.4% of global production.

China’s total vanadium capacity reached 277,600t in 2025. Actual output was 163,900t, down 900t from 2024.

The production base is dominated by vanadium slag. Output from vanadium slag reached 141,300t in 2025, broadly unchanged from the previous year.

Some producers reduced supply. Xinjiang Da’an and Yunnan Yukun did not produce, cutting combined output by about 8,000t. Other producers, including Chengsteel, Desheng and Dagang, raised output by around 15%, offsetting part of the loss.

Stone-coal-based vanadium output fell more sharply. Production declined to 7,600t in 2025, down 2,600t from 2024, as lower prices left all stone-coal producers loss-making.

This route remains highly price-sensitive. At current price levels, only one large-scale stone-coal producer is operating, with output of around 100-120 t/month of ammonium metavanadate on a V2O5-equivalent basis.

A Shaanxi-based producer with capacity of 300-350 t/month has been suspended since early 2026 because of safety issues. It is unlikely to restart in the first half.

Vanadium flake prices rose to 83,000-84,000 yuan/t in March, prompting some stone-coal producers to consider restarts. However, current prices still appear insufficient to drive a large supply response.

Even when prices approached 110,000 yuan/t in 2023, stone-coal-based output only reached about 11,000t. This suggests that 2026 output growth from stone coal will likely remain limited.

Secondary resources are becoming more important. Vanadium output from spent catalysts and other secondary sources rose to 15,100t in 2025, up 1,900t from 2024.

This included about 6,700t from alumina by-product recovery, up around 1,700t. Output from spent catalysts and petroleum residues stayed broadly stable despite lower vanadium prices.

The reason is co-product economics. Vanadium is often recovered alongside molybdenum and tungsten from secondary feedstocks. Higher molybdenum and tungsten prices supported operating rates and helped keep secondary recovery viable.

Secondary output is expected to remain broadly unchanged in 2026. Feedstock availability is relatively stable, but China’s restrictions on solid-waste imports since 2017 limit the potential for major raw material growth.

Vanadium slag-based supply may edge higher in 2026, but feedstock constraints create uncertainty. Qinhuangdao Baigong completed a 10,000 t/yr V2O5 line in early 2026 and is ramping toward normal operations. Its 2026 output guidance is around 5,000t.

However, tighter domestic feedstock availability could offset this addition. Vanadium-titanium magnetite supply in the Panzhihua area is particularly constrained, potentially cutting output by about 4,500-5,000t of V2O5 equivalent.

Producers in Sichuan and Yunnan may need to source vanadium-titanium magnetite from the Chengde area or increase imports to keep output in line with 2025. A northeastern steelmaking-based vanadium producer has also reduced vanadium-titanium magnetite imports since December 2025.

This creates a cautious supply outlook. China’s vanadium output may edge higher in 2026, but the increase depends on whether new slag-based capacity can offset feedstock tightness and further weakness in stone-coal production.

The market therefore faces a potential demand-led tightening risk. VRFB demand is rising quickly, steel demand is improving modestly and smaller sectors are growing. Supply growth, meanwhile, remains constrained by feedstock, cost pressure and limited secondary resource availability.

For vanadium producers, the key opportunity lies in high-purity electrolyte-grade material. VRFB demand requires reliable vanadium quality, stable supply and long-term availability. Producers that can supply battery-grade vanadium will be better positioned than those focused only on metallurgical demand.

For steel users, the issue is price exposure. If VRFB demand absorbs more vanadium units, ferro-vanadium and vanadium-nitrogen alloy buyers could face stronger competition from the energy storage sector.

For energy storage developers, the issue is raw material security. VRFB growth depends on enough high-purity vanadium to support electrolyte production. Supply constraints could affect project economics if demand accelerates faster than conversion capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s vanadium market is entering a new phase where steel remains the base, but VRFBs set the growth direction. The strategic tension in 2026 will be whether constrained supply can keep pace with energy storage demand without pricing steel users out of the market.