China’s Carbon Neutrality Push Expected to Reduce Demand for Raw Materials

China recently unveiled a "Special Action Plan for Carbon Reduction" aimed at enhancing carbon neutrality, energy efficiency, and reducing emissions. This initiative is anticipated to shift the steel industry towards electric arc furnace (EAF) production, thereby decreasing the demand for iron ore and coal.

The plan, announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), emphasizes upgrading existing equipment and increasing the use of EAFs to significantly reduce the consumption of raw materials and emissions by 2030.

Although the immediate impact of this policy may be limited, market participants foresee a long-term negative effect on the demand for iron ore and coal. In June, the NDRC outlined specific goals to reduce energy consumption and emissions in the steel industry by the end of 2030. These include reducing per-ton energy consumption for blast furnace and converter processes by more than 1% from 2023 levels by 2025, and reducing energy consumption per ton of steel production by over 2% from 2023 levels, along with increasing the use of waste heat and pressure by at least 3%.

To achieve these objectives, the NDRC and related agencies plan to encourage the increased use of EAFs and accelerate upgrades of energy-intensive equipment. Industry insiders predict that while the visible impact may be minimal in 2024, the long-term demand for iron ore and coking coal will decline.

A representative from a steel company in northern China noted that the short-term impact on coking coal demand might be minor, but the long-term demand is likely to decrease. Similarly, a raw material supplier in Shanxi Province pointed out that the demand for iron ore and coking coal will diminish as EAF production replaces some blast furnace output.

In light of these policies, the proportion of EAF production is expected to rise, and the Chinese government and steel industry are likely to push for increased self-sufficiency in iron ore. According to the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), Chinese mining companies plan to increase domestic iron ore concentrate production by 5-10 million tons in 2024 compared to 2023. CISA projects that domestic iron ore concentrate production will reach 370 million tons annually by 2025, aided by new iron ore projects.

Mysteel estimates that by 2025, total iron ore production from Chinese companies' overseas holdings will exceed 70 million tons per year, a more than 60% increase from 2020. As a result, with overall iron ore demand declining, iron ore production expansion projects are expected to continue, gradually reducing dependence on iron ore imports from this year onwards.

UK scrap export restrictions could cost jobs and billions, BMRA warns

UK scrap

The UK scrap export restrictions debate now carries major economic risk, according to a BMRA-commissioned study. The report finds UK scrap export restrictions would threaten thousands of jobs and curb growth. It argues UK scrap export restrictions would weaken an already strained recycling ecosystem.

EAF transition raises demand for scrap

UK steel is shifting to electric arc furnaces that consume more scrap. If all furnaces used only scrap by 2050, they would need two-thirds of UK supply. UK steelmakers used an estimated 2.6mn t in 2023 amid closures and reduced activity. The UK generates about 10mn t of scrap each year. However, export markets currently sustain prices and liquidity for recyclers.

Policy scenarios show heavy economic losses

The study models multiple restriction options and shows steep losses. A 10% export quota could cut nearly 3,000 jobs and £880mn in five years. A 50% quota could remove over £4bn and 23,000 jobs. A non-OECD ban risks £4.9bn and about 20,000 jobs. BMRA stresses exports are the sector’s “lifeblood” that anchor viable throughput. Meanwhile, government steel strategy consultations continue this year.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Restricting scrap flows to engineer availability risks shrinking the very supply base EAFs need. A smarter path ties domestic EAF ramp-up to price-transparent, open export channels plus quality upgrades. Calibrated incentives beat blunt quotas for long-run circular capacity.

Japan Increases EV Subsidies to Promote Green Steel Usage

Japan EV

New Incentives to Drive Adoption of Environmentally Friendly Steel

Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (Meti) has announced an increase in electric vehicle (EV) subsidies starting April 1st, aiming to promote the use of green steel. The new measure will provide up to ¥50,000 ($321) in additional financial support, expanding the subsidy to a total of ¥900,000 per EV, depending on the model and size, if it is manufactured with green steel. The initiative is part of Japan's broader green transformation policy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Meti has secured a budget of ¥110 billion for the EV subsidy program. The main objective of this increase is not only to boost EV demand but also to support the domestic steel industry. Green steel, though more expensive to produce, has the same functionality as conventionally produced steel, which emits higher GHGs. Meti is addressing concerns among domestic steel producers, who fear the higher production costs of green steel may deter consumers.

Shifting Steel Production to Electric Arc Furnaces

Japan's steel industry is making efforts to reduce GHG emissions, especially through the transition to electric arc furnaces (EAFs). However, EAF plants require significant investment and face various technical challenges. Japan's largest basic oxygen furnace (BOF) producer, Nippon Steel, began commercial operations of an EAF in 2022, and JFE Steel plans to launch its own EAF by 2027. Additionally, Kobe Steel intends to replace one of its BOFs with an EAF facility by 2027.

Despite these advancements, the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF) reported a 3.4% decline in EAF-produced crude steel in 2024, with EAF production accounting for 26.2% of the country’s total crude steel production.

Challenges in Boosting Green Steel Production and EV Sales

Although Meti's measures aim to increase green steel production, there are doubts about their effectiveness, given the sluggish performance of the domestic EV market. Sales of domestic passenger EVs in Japan plummeted by 33% in 2024, largely due to reduced demand for local EV brands. EVs accounted for only 1.5% of total passenger vehicle sales in Japan, down by 0.7 percentage points from the previous year. This decline raises questions about whether the increased subsidies will be enough to stimulate demand for both green steel and EVs.

Japan’s Crude Steel Output Falls for Ninth Straight Month in November

JISF

Japan's crude steel production declined for the ninth consecutive month in November 2023, reflecting persistent weak demand from the construction sector. The country produced 6.9 million tonnes (mn t) of crude steel, a 3.1% year-on-year decrease, according to preliminary data from the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF) released on December 20.

Production via the basic oxygen furnace (BOF) process remained stable at 5.1mn t, while output from electric arc furnaces (EAFs), commonly used for steel products in construction, fell by 11% to 1.8mn t. This marks the second consecutive month of double-digit declines for EAF production, signaling prolonged weakness in the construction industry.

Seasonal and Structural Challenges

The autumn months of October and November typically represent a peak season for Japan’s construction industry as firms push to complete projects before the disruptive winter months. However, rising material costs and labor shortages have dampened sentiment in the sector, further curbing steel demand.

The construction and automotive industries are critical to Japan’s steel market. BOF steel primarily serves the automotive sector, while EAF steel products cater heavily to construction. With construction activity lagging, EAF production has borne the brunt of the downturn.

Producers Adjust Output Forecasts

Japan’s major steel producer, JFE Holdings, revised its crude steel output forecast downward on November 6. The company now expects to produce 22.4mn t for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, 600,000 tonnes less than its earlier estimate. JFE attributed this adjustment to weaker-than-expected steel demand from the construction industry.

SSAB Delays Lulea Fossil-Free Steel Mill Project by One Year

SSAB

Electricity Supply Delays Impact Lulea Mini-Mill Timeline

Swedish steelmaker SSAB has postponed the transformation of its Lulea facility into a fossil-free mini-mill by one year. The delay is attributed to setbacks in securing sufficient electricity supply, caused by regional grid upgrade issues. Construction of key substations has been hindered by outage planning problems, leaving the site without the power needed to operate its electric arc furnaces (EAF).

Investment and Production Targets at Risk

SSAB initially approved a €4.5bn investment in January 2022 to build the new mini-mill, replacing its existing blast furnace-based production. The facility will feature two EAFs, a direct strip rolling mill, and a cold rolling line for automotive steels. Once operational, the site is expected to produce 2.5mn t/yr of steel using both recycled scrap and fossil-free sponge iron from the Hybrid demonstration plant in Gallivare. Plans originally targeted 2028 for the first EAF to become operational, reaching full capacity in 2029. However, these milestones are now delayed by one year.

Despite the postponement, SSAB confirmed it will still move forward with EAF installation and maintain its long-term transition strategy. In late 2024, the company secured a €128mn grant from the European Commission to support the transition from coal-based production to a near net-zero emission system, reinforcing its commitment to sustainability despite the temporary setback.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SSAB’s delay underscores the critical role of reliable electricity infrastructure in steel sector decarbonisation. Without timely grid upgrades, even large investments risk losing momentum. The company’s continued push toward fossil-free steel highlights both the opportunities and challenges of Europe’s green industrial transition.