China Plans to Boost Domestic Copper Resources and Scrap Usage by 2027

China Copper Resources

The country's strategy focuses on expanding copper production and enhancing secondary material utilization.

China has announced plans to increase its domestic copper resources by 5-10% by 2027, along with a significant push to boost the use of secondary materials such as copper scrap. According to a February 11th statement from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the country will focus on expanding copper exploration and production in several key regions. These efforts align with China’s broader strategy to enhance its copper supply chain and reduce dependency on external sources.

Increased Domestic Copper Exploration and Smelting Projects

As part of its initiative, China will promote exploration in regions such as Tibet, Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Heilongjiang provinces. The country has already made substantial progress in discovering new copper resources, with over 20 million tonnes of new copper found in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since 2021. This is double the quantity discovered during the 2016-2020 period. To further boost copper production, China plans to develop new copper mines in these regions and integrate new smelting projects with concentrate production facilities. These projects are expected to play a key role in meeting the country’s growing demand for refined copper.

Boosting Copper Scrap Utilization

Another significant aspect of China’s strategy is increasing the use of copper scrap. Copper smelters will be encouraged to use more secondary copper, which has already become a major feedstock in the production of refined copper. In 2023, more than 31% of China's refined copper came from scrap, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA). To support this, the government plans to back the construction of new copper scrap recycling facilities and increase imports of copper scrap. In 2024, China’s copper scrap imports rose by 13%, reaching over 2.25 million tonnes, as smelters shifted to more cost-effective scrap rather than concentrates due to higher concentrate prices.

Global Copper Supply and Smelting Capacity

China’s increased demand for copper concentrate, along with the country’s focus on smelting capacity expansions, is expected to tighten global copper concentrate supply. This supply crunch has already led to a decline in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) since 2024. Market participants suggest that smelting capacity expansions may outpace new copper mine projects, contributing to continued global supply tightness in 2025.

Conclusion

China’s push to increase domestic copper resources and enhance the use of secondary materials, such as copper scrap, reflects a strategic move to secure its position in the global copper market. With growing demand for refined copper and a constrained global supply of copper concentrates, the country’s efforts to expand production capacity and increase recycling will be essential to meeting future copper needs.

US Copper Scrap Exports Reach Six-Year High in 2024

Copper Scrap

Total Copper Scrap Shipments Surge by 15%, Led by Strong Demand from China and Asia

In 2024, US copper scrap exports hit their highest levels in six years, marking a 15% increase from the previous year. Total copper scrap exports rose to 310,200 metric tonnes (mt), up from 270,100 mt in 2023. According to data compiled by Global Trade Tracker, this surge reflects rising demand across all forms of copper scrap.

Strong Growth in Copper Scrap Exports to China and Asia

Among the different categories of copper scrap, exports of bare bright scrap increased by 1.7%, reaching 81,400 tonnes in 2024. A significant portion of this growth was driven by a 3,200-tonne increase in exports to China. Exports of #1 copper scrap, which rose by 20% to approximately 112,400 tonnes, were also dominated by demand from China, which received 19,700 tonnes more than the previous year. Similarly, exports of #2 copper scrap saw a 21% increase, totaling over 116,500 tonnes, with higher deliveries to China, Malaysia, and Thailand.

This growing demand from Asian markets, particularly China, has contributed to the rise in US copper scrap exports. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) copper price for 2024 averaged $4.23 per pound, a 37¢ increase compared to 2023. Asian #1 copper scrap discounts averaged 19¢ per pound under the CME price, widening from the previous year’s 13¢ per pound. As a result, consumers faced a 31¢ per pound increase compared to the previous year due to the elevated exchange price.

Copper Scrap Exports: A Key Indicator of Global Demand

The rise in US copper scrap exports is a clear indicator of the strong global demand for copper, particularly in Asia. With China and other countries ramping up their copper production and consumption, the US remains a critical player in the copper supply chain. As demand for copper continues to grow, especially for use in green technologies and infrastructure, copper scrap exports will likely remain a vital component of the global market.

US Tariffs Pressure Copper Prices and Curb China’s Scrap Imports

China Copper

US tariffs, introduced by President Donald Trump on April 2, have significantly impacted global copper prices. The tariffs, set at a minimum 10% tax on all foreign imports, have caused concerns about weakened copper demand, particularly from key industries that rely on copper, such as automobiles and home appliances. China’s copper scrap imports are also under pressure due to retaliatory tariffs, which will be implemented by China on April 10.

Impact of Tariffs on Copper Prices

Following the announcement of tariffs, copper prices saw a dramatic decline. As of April 7, London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper prices fell to a one-year low of $8,105 per ton, a significant drop from $9,721 per ton on April 2. Similarly, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) prices also plummeted to a three-month low of 73,640 yuan per ton from 79,890 yuan per ton during the same period.

Although copper itself is not directly affected by the new tariffs, the downstream sectors, such as automotive manufacturing and home appliances, face substantial tariffs. This will likely depress demand for copper, as these industries represent significant end-users of copper products.

US Tariffs on Cars and Appliances Affect Copper Demand

A 25% tariff on imported cars and trucks came into effect on April 3, with a further 25% tax on auto parts set to follow in May. The US light vehicle market saw significant growth in 2024, with sales climbing to 16.8 million units. Similarly, the US imported $23.5 billion worth of home appliances from China in 2024. These appliances, including cooling devices and electronics, represented 23% of global copper demand in 2023. The imposition of tariffs on these goods will likely lead to a reduction in copper demand from the US.

On a positive note, lower copper prices may drive copper fabricators to restock in the short term, especially after a significant price drop in late March. Data from the SHFE shows that copper stocks fell from 256,328 tons on March 21 to 225,736 tons by April 3, as downstream buyers rushed to purchase copper cathode in response to falling prices.

China’s Retaliatory Tariffs and Copper Scrap Imports

China’s planned tariffs on US copper scrap, set to take effect on April 10, will impact copper supply in the country. In 2024, China imported over 440,000 tons of copper scrap from the US, accounting for nearly 20% of its total copper scrap imports. However, market participants predict that some traders will attempt to bypass the tariffs by sourcing US-origin copper scrap from other countries.

In February, US copper scrap exports fell by 10% compared to the previous year, with China seeing the largest drop in imports. This decrease in exports can be attributed to tariff expectations, which have made it difficult for US exporters to remain competitive. The large spread between CME and LME prices has further strained export options, leaving US dealers with excess scrap volumes.

Limited Impact on Copper Concentrate and Cathode Supplies

China’s retaliatory tariffs are expected to have a minimal impact on its domestic copper concentrate and cathode supply. In 2024, China imported just 460,000 tons of copper concentrate and 1,575 tons of copper cathode from the US, representing only a small fraction of its total imports. Therefore, the retaliatory tariffs are unlikely to cause significant disruptions to these supply chains.

China's Copper Scrap Imports Surge in 2024 Amid Tight Supply and Policy Changes

Copper Scrap

China’s copper scrap imports saw a notable 13% increase in 2024 as domestic refined copper producers turned to scrap due to a tightening copper concentrate supply. This shift helped offset the shortages in copper concentrate, which traditionally serves as the primary feedstock for refining operations. The increased demand for scrap also led to a significant month-on-month rise in December, with imports soaring by 25% compared to November.

December Surge Attributed to Price Dynamics and US-Related Imports

A key factor contributing to this December surge was the reopening of the import arbitrage in the second half of November. This shift occurred as domestic copper metal prices in China rose above those on the London Metal Exchange (LME), making imports more economically viable. Additionally, scrap buyers accelerated the clearance of US-origin copper scrap at customs to avoid potential countermeasures after the election of US President Donald Trump. This urgency, combined with strategic import decisions, led to a marked rise in imports in the final month of the year.

Government Policy Supports Copper Scrap Imports in 2025

In a bid to further boost the availability of copper scrap, China has expanded its import duty exemptions for recycled copper feedstocks. For 2025, the government broadened the scope of products under HS code 74040000 to include not only recycled brass and copper feedstocks but also recycled copper and alloy feedstocks. Import duties for these materials remain at zero, a move that further encourages the import of scrap and helps meet the growing demand for copper in China.

Copper Cathode Output Declines in 2023-24

Aurubis, Europe’s leading copper producer and recycler, reported a 4% drop in its copper cathode production for the 2023-24 fiscal year, totaling 578,000 tons. The decline was driven by a 30% reduction in output at its Hamburg facility, where operations were delayed following a maintenance shutdown. Despite the setback in Germany, the company maintained a solid performance in Bulgaria, with 229,000 tons produced at its Pirdop site.

China’s Copper Scrap Imports Drop in September Amid Narrowing Price Spreads

Copper Scrap

China’s copper scrap imports declined by 5.4% in September, reflecting market shifts driven by narrowing price spreads between refined copper and copper scrap. According to market participants, the spread, which began at over 2,000 yuan per ton (Yn/t) at the start of August, contracted to around 1,200 yuan/t ($169/t) by the end of the month as copper prices hit a five-month low.

Market Dynamics and Buyer Behavior

The narrower price spread dampened the interest of fabricated product producers in purchasing scrap. Many Chinese copper smelters and secondary producers chose to remain on the sidelines, avoiding major scrap purchases once the spread fell below the perceived reasonable threshold of 1,400 yuan/t.

At the same time, sellers exhibited hesitancy to deliver copper scrap during August's price slump, preferring to wait for higher prices. This shift in behavior further impacted the availability and movement of scrap in September.

The Broader Impact of Rising Costs

Adding to the complexities, many refined copper producers opted to use copper scrap as a substitute for copper concentrate. This switch was driven by the significantly higher costs of copper concentrate, leading to a 16% rise in China’s copper scrap imports during the January-September period.

However, the copper concentrate market faced its own challenges, including a persistent supply crunch that resulted in a sharp 85% drop in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) over the same timeframe.

Outlook

With copper prices and market conditions remaining volatile, China’s copper trade dynamics are expected to continue adjusting as producers and buyers navigate fluctuating costs and price spreads.

US Copper Scrap Exports Surge by 17% in October

US Copper Scrap

US copper scrap exports witnessed a remarkable 17% growth in October 2024 compared to the previous year, driven by increases in @1 and @2 copper shipments.

Strong Year-Over-Year Growth in Exports

The United States exported nearly 26,200 metric tonnes of copper scrap in October 2024, a significant rise from approximately 22,500 tonnes during the same period in 2023. This marks the 12th consecutive month of year-over-year increases, hitting the highest monthly total since May 2024.

However, the rise in total exports was contrasted by a 4% decline in bare bright copper scrap shipments, which fell to approximately 6,700 tonnes. Notable reductions in exports to Greece and South Korea contributed to this decline.

@1 and @2 Copper Scrap Lead Export Growth

Exports of @1 copper scrap surged by an impressive 31%, reaching nearly 10,000 tonnes. China was the primary driver, with an additional 1,800 tonnes compared to last year. While exports to Germany saw a decline, China’s demand more than compensated for the dip.

Similarly, @2 copper scrap exports climbed by 21%, surpassing 9,400 tonnes. The growth was fueled by heightened deliveries to major importing nations such as China, Malaysia, and Belgium.

Copper Prices and Market Trends

The October average for CME copper futures reached $4.42 per pound, marking an 81¢ increase from October 2023 and the highest monthly average since June 2024. Meanwhile, Asian @1 copper scrap discounts widened to 19.5¢/lb under CME prices, compared to 11¢/lb under in the previous year.

The elevated exchange prices, coupled with optimism for a stronger Chinese economy, drove higher consumer costs, averaging 73¢/lb above last year. The market responded to policy signals from China’s Ministry of Finance, including potential support for the real estate sector. These measures briefly boosted copper demand expectations, although the rally was short-lived. Market participants remain hopeful for further economic stimulus to drive China closer to its 5% growth target.

Chinalco Boosts Copper Anode Capacity Amid Rising Scrap Use

Chinalco

Major Upgrade at Dianzhong Smelter Targets Increased Output and Efficiency

China’s Chinalco has commenced operations of a new copper anode furnace at its Dianzhong smelter in Chuxiong, Yunnan province. This initiative is part of a 515 million yuan ($70.2 million) upgrade project. The upgrade aims to elevate the smelter’s copper anode production from 191,700 tonnes per year to 249,800 tonnes per year. Furthermore, a 210,000 tonnes per year copper cathode refining facility is set to launch in May.

Increased Scrap Integration

The Dianzhong smelter, previously reliant on copper concentrate, now incorporates a copper scrap feeding facility. This addition aligns with the growing trend of utilizing secondary copper. In 2023, over 31% of China's refined copper output originated from copper scrap, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. The rising cost of copper concentrate has driven many producers to favor copper scrap. This shift led to a 14% year-on-year increase in China's copper scrap imports, reaching 2.03 million tonnes from January to November.

Market Implications

This expansion by Chinalco reflects the broader industry trend of adapting to feedstock cost fluctuations and increasing reliance on recycled materials. The upgrade will strengthen Chinalco's copper production capabilities and contribute to the supply of copper cathode. The increased usage of copper scrap also highlights the growing importance of the circular economy within the metals industry.

China Copper Scrap Cash Spreads Widen Amid Price Fluctuations

China Copper Scrap

Cash spreads for Chinese copper scrap imports have increased from last week due to lower copper prices on major exchanges.  Scrap sellers maintained firm offers as LME copper prices fell to a four-month low of $8,757/tonne on December 31st.

Import Arbitrage Loss and Tariff Exemptions

China's copper scrap import arbitrage loss widened to -1,000 yuan/tonne ($137/tonne) this week, compared to a small profit in late December. This widening loss is attributed to lower domestic spot copper metal prices relative to LME prices, resulting in limited trading activity.  Despite this, China will expand its import duty exemptions on more recycled copper feedstocks in 2025. The government has broadened the products included under HS code 74040000 to "recycled copper and alloy feedstock" for 2025, from "recycled brass copper feedstock and recycled copper feedstock" in 2024. The import duty for this HS code remains at zero for both years.  However, market participants remain cautious about importing copper scrap from the US, even with the expanded tariff exemptions in 2025.

Market Outlook and Price Rebound

LME three-month copper prices have since rebounded, rising from a close of $8,781.50/tonne on December 31st to a close of $8,980/tonne on January 7th.  Positive investor sentiment has been fueled by the People's Bank of China announcement of increased financial support for technology innovation and consumption, along with measures to enhance liquidity, safeguard capital markets, and potential reductions in interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio for banks.

US Copper Scrap Exports Continue to Climb in June, Despite Mixed Performance Across Categories

U.S. copper scrap exports sustained their upward momentum in June, marking an 8 percent increase compared to the same period last year. This growth, driven by heightened shipments of bare bright and #2 copper, managed to offset a decline in #1 copper exports.

In total, copper scrap exports for June reached 22,573 metric tonnes, up from 20,850 metric tonnes in June 2023. This marks the eighth consecutive month of year-over-year growth in the sector. Over the first half of 2024, U.S. copper scrap exports totaled 156,756 metric tonnes, reflecting a 22 percent increase compared to the first half of the previous year.

The volume of bare bright scrap exports, although rising 3 percent from the previous year to 5,637 metric tonnes, represented the lowest monthly total in the past year due to a significant 13 percent drop in shipments to China. In contrast, exports of #1 copper scrap fell sharply by 17 percent to 7,033 metric tonnes, with four Asian countries reducing their import volumes.

Meanwhile, #2 copper scrap exports saw a robust 44 percent surge to 9,903 metric tonnes, largely driven by increased demand from China and Malaysia.

On the pricing front, Comex copper for June averaged $4.50 per pound, an increase of 70 cents per pound from June 2023. However, this was the lowest monthly average since April, as the U.S. dollar gained strength during the month. As a result, consumers faced an average year-over-year cost increase of 69 cents per pound.

Despite the higher prices, market activity was slower than in May, with sellers indicating that while buyers could be found, the terms were increasingly favorable to the buyers. Hopes that China would introduce stimulus measures in July to bolster its property market and boost demand for copper ultimately proved unfounded, as the country refrained from injecting funds into its struggling economy.

China's Copper Scrap Imports Surge in July Amid Narrowed Arbitrage Losses

China's copper scrap imports rose sharply in July, increasing by 14.8% from the previous month, driven by a reduction in import arbitrage losses that had previously discouraged purchases. The narrowing of the arbitrage loss, which fell to between -Yn1,000 and -Yn1,500 per tonne in June from nearly -Yn6,000 per tonne in May, played a key role in this surge.

In May, the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw three-month copper prices reach a record high of $11,104.50 per tonne, making copper concentrate an increasingly expensive feedstock for Chinese producers. In response to the rising costs, many refined copper producers in China turned to copper scrap as an alternative, leading to a 20% increase in copper scrap imports during the first half of the year.

The supply crunch for copper concentrate significantly impacted the market, pushing treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) down by 88% from January to June. The shift towards copper scrap was further accelerated by the cancellation of a tax rebate on 1 August, prompting most secondary copper processors to purchase scrap at the full tax rate. This trend is expected to continue into August, supported by the narrower import arbitrage losses in July.

Copper Demand to Surge by 2.6% Annually Through 2035: BHP

BHP : Copper

BHP, the Australian mining giant, has projected that global copper demand will experience a significant increase, growing by 1 million tonnes per year until 2035. This rise is fueled by the ongoing global energy transition and the rapid expansion of the digital sector, according to a report released on Monday.

Over the past 75 years, copper demand has grown by 3.1% annually, but growth slowed to 1.9% in the 15 years leading up to 2021. However, BHP anticipates that the annual growth rate will rebound to 2.6% by 2035, driven by rising living standards and continued demand from developed economies. The report further highlighted that global copper demand is expected to grow by around 70% by 2050, reaching more than 50 million tonnes annually, an average growth rate of 2% per year.

The Role of Energy and Recycling in Future Copper Demand

A key factor in the rise of copper demand is the energy transition, which is projected to account for 23% of global copper consumption by 2050, a significant increase from the current 7%. The digital sector's share of copper usage is also expected to rise, from 1% today to 6% by mid-century.

In response to this increasing demand, recycled copper will play a pivotal role, with scrap copper supply expected to rise from approximately one-third of total copper consumption today to 40% by 2035. By 2050, recycled copper could constitute up to half of global copper usage, a vital component in bridging the supply gap.

However, challenges remain. BHP has identified the rising costs of production and declining ore grades—down 40% since 1991—as significant concerns for future copper supply. To meet the growing demand, the world will need an additional 10 million tonnes of newly mined copper annually over the next decade.

Overcoming High Tariffs through Titanium Recycling Materials

DongA Special Metal (DASM) Homepage

Reducing Costs by Using Titanium Scrap in the Age of High Tariffs

Since Donald Trump's election, the world has entered an era of high tariffs. In response to recent U.S. tariff policies, global companies have faced significant challenges in sourcing raw materials. This is especially true in the steel industry, which is struggling due to the influx of low-priced Chinese products. Companies in this sector are working tirelessly to secure materials and reduce costs in various ways.

The tariffs on Chinese materials have further diminished the competitiveness of U.S. companies in the domestic market. In addition, a predicted global industrial slowdown adds to the challenges. To remain competitive, companies must prioritize cost reduction. However, finding viable alternatives in this high-tariff era remains a struggle.

The situation is different in the specialty steel sector. Unlike common materials such as iron, stainless steel, and copper, which are largely controlled by China, the use of scrap offers limited cost savings in these areas. However, specialty alloys like nickel and titanium provide a significant opportunity for cost reduction. By using scrap materials in the production of these alloys, companies can achieve a 15-20% reduction in costs, making it a highly effective strategy for cutting expenses.

Scrap → Feedstock

Global Companies and the Shift Toward Scrap Use

Despite these benefits, the use of scrap in the specialty alloys sector remains relatively low, with only a few companies with advanced technology utilizing it. The main reason for this is a lack of understanding of its practical benefits. Integrating scrap into the production process can lead to substantial improvements in efficiency and simplification of operations, which naturally reduces costs. However, many companies fail to recognize these advantages, often due to a lack of experience.

To truly cut costs, increasing scrap usage is crucial. Additionally, the tariff situation has so far spared scrap materials from high taxes, making their use even more attractive. The growing need for scrap is becoming increasingly apparent as industries look for ways to cut costs and avoid tariff impacts. This raises the question: where can companies source specialty metal scrap?

South Korea Sees the Rise of a Scrap Specialization Recycling Company

To address these challenges, a specialty metal recycling company based in South Korea(DongA Special Metal) has developed technology to enhance scrap usage. This company has been recycling specialty alloys such as nickel, titanium, and zirconium for years, producing titanium sponge substitutes and feedstock for export to global markets. They offer a comprehensive service that includes advising on scrap alloy usage and ensuring that the final product meets industry standards.

Ti Sponge VS Ti Cobble

The company has particularly focused on titanium, a material known for its strength and elasticity. They break down titanium and process it into titanium sponge substitutes. This method not only makes titanium more affordable but also reduces the carbon emissions associated with titanium sponge production, which has become a significant concern in the metals industry. This innovation addresses both cost reduction and environmental challenges, making it an ideal solution for companies aiming to enter the U.S. market in the high-tariff era.

In recent years, the U.S. has increasingly turned to scrap use in the metals industry. In 2021, all U.S. titanium sponge plants were shut down due to environmental concerns, and the country now relies entirely on imports. As the use of scrap and alloys continues to grow, it’s clear that companies looking to stay competitive must address material sourcing challenges to succeed in the future.

DongA Special Metal Scrap Recycling Process

Cyclic Materials and Glencore Forge Partnership for Recycled Copper

Cyclic Materials

In a move that underscores the growing emphasis on sustainability in the metals industry, Cyclic Materials and Glencore have entered into a strategic partnership to enhance the circular supply chain for copper in North America. Announced today, this collaboration sees Cyclic Materials, a prominent metals recycler, supplying recycled copper sourced from end-of-life electric motors to Glencore, a major player in global mining and trading.

Advancing Circular Economy in Critical Minerals

The copper will be initially processed at Cyclic's specialized "spoke" plant located in Ontario, Canada. This facility is equipped to handle the breakdown of electric motors, extracting valuable copper which is then sent to Glencore's Horne smelting facility in Quebec. Here, the scrap copper is transformed into copper anodes before undergoing further refinement into copper cathodes at Glencore’s Canadian Copper Refinery near Montreal.

Strategic Expansion and Future Plans

This partnership marks a significant step for Cyclic Materials as it seeks to expand its operations to commercial scale across North America, as well as in the US and Europe. The deal also complements Cyclic’s recent initiatives, including the production of recycled mixed rare earth oxide (rMREO) at its new Hub100 facility in Ontario. Earlier this year, Cyclic also entered into a critical supply agreement with Belgium's chemical group Solvay and secured additional feedstock agreements with Synetiq in England and E-VAC Magnetics in the US, both of which will supply rare earth elements crucial for Cyclic's operations.

While the specifics of the production volumes and financial terms remain undisclosed, the multiyear offtake agreement between Cyclic and Glencore is set to significantly impact the supply chain dynamics for recycled copper and potentially influence broader market trends.

Japan Explores E-Scrap Opportunities in Southeast Asia Amid EU Supply Risks

Electronic Scrap

As concerns about European Union (EU) export restrictions grow, Japan is shifting its focus to Southeast Asia for electronic scrap (e-scrap) procurement to mitigate potential supply disruptions. This strategic pivot comes as the EU contemplates extending stringent controls on e-scrap exports, possibly affecting Japan, a nation heavily reliant on these resources for its non-ferrous metal production, including copper.

EU Regulations Tighten, Japan's Response

The recent implementation of the EU's Waste Shipment Regulation (WSR) in January 2023, which restricts scrap metal exports to non-OECD countries for environmental reasons, has raised alarms in Japan. Japanese custom data indicates that in 2023, Japan imported approximately 73,000 tons of e-scrap from the EU, accounting for about 40% of its total e-scrap imports. The Japanese Ministry of Environment highlights the country's dependence on imports to satisfy nearly half of its domestic e-scrap needs.

In response to the EU's policy shift and the consequent supply risk, Japan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) signed a circular economy initiative in August 2023, aiming to foster e-scrap procurement and processing in the region.

Challenges in Southeast Asia

Despite these efforts, the transition to Southeast Asian sources is not without challenges. A ministerial meeting between Japan and ASEAN in Laos in September revealed no specific advancements in circular economy discussions. The Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (Eria) reported in 2023 that the region's smelting capacity for non-ferrous metals is significantly underdeveloped, with secondary production figures for aluminium and copper being notably low.

Moreover, the Global E-waste Monitor 2024 by the United Nations indicates a stark contrast in recycling rates between Asia (12% in 2022) and Europe (43%). Indonesia, while being the largest e-scrap producer in Southeast Asia, faces severe limitations in e-scrap management and infrastructure, often resorting to landfill disposal.

Conclusion

As Japan navigates these complex international dynamics, the necessity for diversified and secure e-scrap sources is more apparent than ever. The country's move towards Southeast Asia represents a cautious yet hopeful approach to securing the metals essential for its economic stability and technological advancements.

Global Refined Copper Market in Surplus Amid Production Growth

Copper

Copper production outpaces demand in early 2025

The global refined copper market recorded a surplus in January and February 2025, as production exceeded consumption, according to preliminary data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). The refined copper surplus reached 150,000 metric tonnes (t) during the period, driven by project ramp-ups and growing output from key producing regions.

Global refined copper output totaled 4.59mn t in the first two months, while consumption stood at 4.44mn t. This marks a slight decline from the 157,000t surplus seen in the same period last year. Still, the figures highlight a persistent oversupply trend in the refined copper market.

Regional trends in refined copper production and consumption

Global copper mine production rose by 1.7pc year-on-year to 3.72mn t. Growth was supported by increased production at Peru’s Las Bambas, Quellaveco, and Toromocho mines, and expansion at the Kamoa mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). However, mine output declined in Asia (-1.5pc), North America (-2.5pc), and Chile (-4pc).

Refined copper output rose 0.9pc to 4.59mn t. Of this, 3.81mn t came from primary sources and 777,000t from secondary scrap production. China and the DRC contributed significantly, with 2pc year-on-year growth, and Asia excluding China saw a 6pc increase due to India's Adani refinery ramp-up. Chile, however, experienced an 18pc fall in refined output.

On the demand side, global refined copper usage grew by 1.1pc to 4.44mn t. Chinese apparent demand rose by 1.6pc, while ex-China demand grew just 0.5pc, with EU, Japanese, and US demand remaining subdued. February alone showed a monthly surplus of 61,000t, with 2.2mn t produced and 2.1mn t consumed.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The copper market surplus in early 2025 reflects uneven regional dynamics, where supply growth outpaces sluggish global demand. While China continues to lead both output and consumption, weakening demand in the US, EU, and Japan suggests potential headwinds. Market participants should closely monitor output cuts or policy-driven demand stimuli to rebalance the market.

Global Refined Copper Market Records Surplus in 2024 Due to Increased Output in China and DRC

Copper Market

Surplus Marks Significant Shift from 2023 Deficit

The global refined copper market posted a surplus in 2024, breaking from the deficit seen in 2023. According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), refined copper production reached 27.63 million tonnes, while consumption totaled 27.33 million tonnes. This 301,000-tonne surplus contrasts with the previous year’s 52,000-tonne deficit. The main drivers behind this surplus were higher outputs in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Strong Output Growth Across Key Mining Regions

Global copper mine production grew by nearly 2.4% year-on-year, reaching 22.91 million tonnes in 2024. This increase followed recoveries from supply constraints in 2023 in countries such as Chile and Indonesia. Significant expansions in DRC, Botswana, Mongolia, and Serbia further boosted output. Notably, DRC's copper production surged by 14% due to ramp-ups at the Kinsanfu mine and expansions at Tenke and Kamoa-Kakula. Chile’s copper output also increased by 5%, thanks to higher production at Escondida and Collahuasi, along with the ramp-up of Quebrada Blanca. Indonesia experienced a 14% rebound after overcoming operational challenges at Grasberg and Batu Hijau mines in 2023.

Refined Copper Output and Demand Trends

Refined copper output globally rose by 4.2% in 2024, led by expanded capacity in China and DRC. These two nations now contribute about 54% of world refined copper production. Primary refined production, including electrolytic and electrowinning from ores, amounted to 23.05 million tonnes, while secondary production from scrap reached 4.58 million tonnes. Output rose in Japan and the US but fell in Chile and the EU. World refined copper use also climbed by 2.9%, with Chinese apparent demand up by 3.5%. Nevertheless, weaker demand in the EU, Japan, and the US tempered global growth. In December, refined copper consumption exceeded production, causing a 22,000-tonne monthly deficit.

Global Refined Copper Market Records Surplus in January-August

Copper

The global refined copper market saw a surplus of 535,000 tons (t) in the first eight months of 2024, up sharply from a surplus of 75,000t during the same period last year, according to preliminary data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). This increase in surplus reflects a rise in production, particularly in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

Refined Copper Supply Outpaces Demand

From January to August, refined copper production increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 18.3 million tons (mn t). Primary refined copper output, which includes electrolytic and electrowinning processes, rose by 5.2%, while secondary refined production from scrap increased by 4.6%.

The expansion of refining capacity played a critical role, with China and the DRC leading the charge. China expanded its capacity by 6.5%, while the DRC achieved a significant 16% increase. Together, these two regions accounted for 54% of global refined copper production. Other notable contributors were Japan (+3.8%) and the US (+8%). Conversely, production in the EU declined by 2%, driven by the shutdown of Boliden's Ronnskar refinery in Sweden in June 2023.

Mine Production Recovers

Global copper mine output rose by 2% year-on-year to 14.9mn t, driven by recovery from production constraints in 2023 and new mining projects. Key highlights include:

Democratic Republic of the Congo: Mine output grew by 11%, largely due to expansions at the Kamoa-Kakula mine, operated by Canadian firm Ivanhoe Mines.

Indonesia: Production surged by 22%, recovering from operational disruptions in 2023.

Chile: Mine output increased by 3% with improved operations.

However, production fell in Peru (-0.7%) and the US (-5%) due to local challenges.

Copper Demand Grows Moderately

Global refined copper consumption rose by 2.5% to 17.8mn t during January-August. China's apparent demand led the growth with a 2.7% increase, while demand in the EU, Japan, and the US remained weak. Other Asian countries and regions like the Middle East and North Africa helped offset this decline, contributing to a 2% rise in consumption outside of China.

August Performance: A Month in Surplus

In August alone, the global refined copper market produced 2.32mn t and consumed 2.27mn t, resulting in a monthly surplus of 54,000t.

Outlook

With production outpacing demand, the refined copper market may continue to face surplus conditions in the near term. The global shift toward increased production capacity and moderate demand growth, led by China and the DRC, will shape the market dynamics going forward.

Aurubis Sees Slight Decline in Copper Cathode Production Amid Maintenance and Expansion Efforts

Aurubis, Europe's largest copper producer and recycler, reported a slight decrease in copper cathode production during the first nine months of its fiscal year, driven primarily by a downturn in its recycling division. The Hamburg-based company announced on Friday that it produced 838,000 tons of copper cathode between October and June, marking a 0.4% decline from the same period last year.

The drop in production is largely attributed to a 2% year-on-year decrease in output from Aurubis' recycling division, which managed 383,000 tons of copper cathode during this period. The decline was most pronounced at the company's Lunen facility in Germany, where production fell by 6% to 111,000 tons due to maintenance work carried out early in the fiscal year.

However, the recycling division saw a rebound in the April to June quarter, with output increasing by 4% compared to the previous quarter. This recovery was bolstered by a 14% surge in production at the Lunen plant following the completion of a tankhouse refurbishment in June, which has increased the plant's annual copper cathode capacity by 10% to 210,000 tons.

Aurubis operates three recycling plants that produce copper cathode from scrap: Beerse and Olen in Belgium, and Lunen in Germany. While Lunen saw a slight dip earlier in the year, output from the Beerse and Olen facilities remained largely stable, mitigating the overall impact on the company's recycling output.

In contrast, Aurubis' smelting division experienced a modest growth in copper cathode production, with a 1% increase year-on-year to 455,000 tons. The Hamburg plant contributed 284,000 tons, while the Pirdop site in Bulgaria added 171,000 tons. The division's overall stability highlights the continued robust demand for copper in Europe, even as the global market faces fluctuating dynamics.

Aurubis also reported a 2% increase in concentrate throughput at its primary smelters, reaching 1.74 million tons. This was largely driven by a 15% surge in throughput at the Pirdop site, which offset a 12% decline at the Hamburg facility. The company is currently expanding the tankhouse at its Pirdop plant, a project that began in April and is expected to boost the site's refined copper output by 50% to 340,000 tons per year by the second half of 2026.

Looking ahead, Aurubis expressed confidence in maintaining stable demand for copper cathodes for the remainder of the fiscal year, supported by ongoing expansion efforts and the completion of key maintenance projects.

China Expands Copper and Aluminium Duty Exemptions for 2025

Recycled Copper

In a bid to promote sustainable growth, China has announced expanded import duty exemptions on recycled copper and aluminium feedstocks for 2025. This change is part of the country’s broader strategy to bolster green and low-carbon development in its metal industries. The move reflects China’s ongoing efforts to ease restrictions on secondary copper and aluminium imports, which could have significant implications for both domestic and international markets.

Expansion of Duty Exemptions

Under the new policy, China will expand the HS code 74040000 to include “recycled copper and alloy feedstock” for 2025, up from just "recycled brass copper feedstock" and "recycled copper feedstock" in 2024. Similarly, the HS code 76020000 will also broaden to cover “recycled aluminium and alloy feedstock” from the previous scope of "recycled cast aluminum alloy feedstock" in 2024. The import duties for both categories will remain at zero for 2025, continuing the exemptions in place for 2024.

This expansion is intended to enhance the country’s circular economy and support the shift toward greener practices in the recycling and processing of metals. According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, the adjustments will help promote low-carbon development, driving demand for sustainable production methods.

The move follows an increase in China’s copper scrap imports, which saw a 14% rise from January to November in 2024 compared to the previous year, signaling a positive trend for the country's metal recycling sector.

Continued Duties on Other Base Metals

While China is easing import duties on certain recycled metals, the government has decided to keep export duties on various base metals, minor metals, ferro-alloys, and rare earths in place for 2025. This includes maintaining the 40% export duty on ferro-chrome, a 25% duty on silico-manganese and ferro-silicon, and a 20% export duty on ferro-manganese. These duties align with China’s broader objective of controlling the export of energy-intensive and pollution-heavy products.

The country will also continue with export duties on a variety of concentrates, such as lead, zinc, tantalum, and niobium, as well as a 20% duty on tin, tungsten, and antimony concentrates, which are less frequently exported due to China’s limited domestic resources of these metals. Additionally, China will maintain duties on several metals, including a 5-15% export duty on copper, nickel, and zinc alloys and products.

China's new policy also includes a zero import duty on spodumene for 2025, marking another significant move in its strategic approach to securing key raw materials for its growing battery and electronics industries.

India Waives Duties on Critical Minerals in 2024-25 Budget

In a strategic move to bolster key industrial sectors, India has announced the reduction or elimination of custom duties on 25 critical minerals, including lithium, copper, cobalt, and rare earths. However, the government will maintain its tax on copper scrap. This announcement was made by India's finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, during her 2024-25 fiscal year budget speech.

The full list of the 25 critical minerals has not been disclosed, but these minerals are deemed essential for industries such as nuclear energy, renewable energy, space, defense, telecommunications, and high-tech electronics. Of these 25 minerals, 23 will be fully exempt from custom duties, while the remaining two will see a reduction in duties.

Additionally, India is launching a critical mineral mission to strengthen the supply chain for these essential minerals, encouraging both private and public sectors to enhance their long-term competitiveness.

The budget also includes significant reductions in customs duties on precious metals. Duties on gold and silver have been lowered to 6%, and platinum to 6.4%. Furthermore, the basic customs duty on ferro-nickel, crucial for stainless steel production, has been waived to improve domestic production efficiency.

The duty on copper scrap remains at 2.5%, but the duty on blister copper has been reduced to zero from 2.5%. This measure aims to support the domestic copper industry by lowering import costs.

In its efforts to support environmental goals, the government has continued the zero customs duty on ferrous scrap and nickel cathode, aligning with its commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions. A new carbon market will also be established to aid the steel and cement sectors in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. The government plans to launch this domestic compliance carbon market by the end of the year to help industries meet their emissions intensity targets.