China Heavy Rare Earth Exports Stall as Curbs Hit Japan and US

Ru

China heavy rare earth exports stalled in May as export restrictions continued to disrupt shipments of terbium, dysprosium and lutetium products to key buyers. The data show how Beijing’s licensing controls are reshaping trade flows for materials used in magnets, defence, aerospace and advanced manufacturing.

China heavy rare earth exports were especially weak for products exposed to US and Japanese demand. China recorded no May exports of terbium oxide, dysprosium metal and several other key heavy rare earth products, while yttrium oxide shipments fell sharply from April.

China heavy rare earth exports are now being driven less by normal spot demand and more by policy clearance, end-use approval and bilateral tensions. This makes supply planning increasingly difficult for downstream users that need small but critical volumes.

Light rare earth exports moved in the opposite direction. Shipments of cerium oxide, lanthanum carbonate and neodymium metal increased in May as stronger downstream demand and firmer export prices encouraged buyers to purchase more material.

Heavy Rare Earth Controls Tighten Supply to Japan

Japan has been the clearest casualty of China’s heavy rare earth restrictions. It was previously a major consumer of Chinese yttrium oxide, accounting for 57-60% of total shipments.

That flow has changed sharply since January, when Beijing banned exports of dual-use items for Japanese military use or any end-use that could enhance Japan’s military capabilities. The measure followed deteriorating relations after comments on Taiwan by Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi.

China exported only 7t of yttrium oxide to Japan in May, while total May yttrium oxide exports fell to 90t from 161t in April. Germany received 55t, France 14t, Russia 6.9t and South Korea 6.2t.

For January-May, China exported 454t of yttrium oxide. South Korea received 111t, Austria 100t, the US 80t, Germany 69t, Vietnam 40t, Russia 20t and Japan only 14t.

Dysprosium flows were also tightly controlled. China exported 8.4t of dysprosium oxide in May, up slightly from April and March, but all shipments in April-May went to South Korea.

Dysprosium metal exports stopped in May after 3t moved to South Korea in April. Exports to Japan have been suspended since January, after 2t was shipped in December 2025.

Terbium exports were even more constrained. China exported no terbium oxide in May after shipping only 0.2t in April. Total January-May exports reached 5.7t, mostly to South Korea.

Terbium metal exports were almost absent in May, while shipments to Japan have been suspended since January. Lutetium oxide exports were also almost absent after 5t moved to the US in April.

Magnet and Aerospace Users Face Licensing Risk

The latest export pattern matters because heavy rare earths are small-volume materials with large strategic importance. Dysprosium and terbium are used to improve high-temperature performance in rare earth permanent magnets.

Those magnets are critical for electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, aerospace systems, defence equipment and high-performance industrial motors. Yttrium is also important for ceramics, phosphors, alloys, coatings and aerospace-related applications.

Lutetium is a smaller market, but its supply risk is strategically relevant because many specialty rare earths have few alternative sources. Even small interruptions can affect qualified users because substitution is difficult.

The May data show that South Korea has remained a permitted destination for some heavy rare earth products, especially dysprosium oxide. This could reflect licensing approvals for civilian or qualified end uses.

But the broader message is that buyers cannot rely only on market availability. They must also track export licences, end-user reviews and political relations with Beijing.

The divergence between light and heavy rare earth exports is also important. Light rare earth demand can still rise when prices and downstream consumption support trade, while heavy rare earth flows remain vulnerable to strategic controls.

For non-China supply chains, this reinforces the need for separation, metallization, magnet recycling and heavy rare earth sourcing outside China. However, building that capacity will take time, capital and customer qualification.

Japan’s exposure is especially important because the country has deep magnet, electronics, automotive and precision manufacturing industries. Reduced access to yttrium, dysprosium, terbium and lutetium could force buyers to accelerate inventory strategies and non-China sourcing.

The market should therefore treat May’s export data as more than a trade statistic. It is another signal that heavy rare earth supply is becoming a managed geopolitical channel.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s May export data show that rare earth risk is now concentrated in licensing, not only price. For Japan, the US and other advanced manufacturing economies, heavy rare earth security will depend on building supply routes that can survive political friction.

MHP and Nickel Sulphate Fuel Significant Growth in Indonesia's Nickel Exports

Indonesia has experienced a substantial increase in nickel exports during the first half of 2024, driven by a sharp rise in production capacities for mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) and nickel sulphate. According to research conducted by Australian bank Macquarie, Indonesia's total nickel exports reached 805,000 tonnes between January and June, reflecting a 20.7% year-on-year increase. When including stainless steel, total exports rose by 22% to 998,000 tonnes.

The growth in exports is largely attributed to the country's four high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) plants, which exported a combined 139,000 tonnes of nickel metal in the form of MHP and nickel sulphate during the first half of the year, a staggering 106% increase from the same period in 2023. The second quarter alone saw 81,000 tonnes exported. Specifically, nickel sulphate exports skyrocketed from 5,400 tonnes in the first half of 2023 to 85,400 tonnes in 2024, equivalent to 19,000 tonnes of nickel metal. Meanwhile, MHP exports grew by 80% year-on-year to 120,000 tonnes.

Nickel pig iron (NPI) remains Indonesia's largest nickel export by volume, growing by 13% year-on-year to 544,000 tonnes in the first half of 2024. However, the slower growth in NPI exports compared to MHP and nickel sulphate suggests Indonesia's increasing focus on the battery materials sector.

Despite the overall rise in exports, high-grade matte exports from Indonesia declined by 17.8% to 101,000 tonnes as more of this supply was utilized domestically for nickel metal production.

Macquarie's data also indicates that nickel ore exports increased in the second quarter of 2024, with Indonesia importing 900,000 wet metric tonnes (wmt) of nickel ore from the Philippines in June, up from 200,000 wmt in March. This increase reflects ongoing tightness in domestic supply despite the government's accelerated approval of mining quotas.

Interestingly, NPI exports to China declined in the first half of the year, with China's share of Indonesian NPI exports dropping to 74% in June, the lowest since the first quarter of 2022. Instead, more NPI is being exported to India and Europe due to cost advantages.

Additionally, Indonesian stainless steel production surged by 25% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, reversing the declines of 4% and 9% seen in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

US New Tariffs Could Disrupt China's Non-Exempt Metals Exports

China Tariffs

New tariffs on lithium, rare earth magnets, and more could affect China's metal exports to the US.

The United States has announced significant new tariffs on Chinese imports, with a notable focus on metals. While many non-ferrous metals and ferro-alloys have been exempted, some crucial exports from China, like lithium, rare earth magnets, and lithium-ion batteries, will face substantial increases in tariff rates. These changes are set to have a lasting impact on the trade between the US and China, especially in the energy storage and electric vehicle (EV) sectors.

High Tariffs on Lithium-Ion Batteries and Energy Storage

As of April 9, the US will implement an 82.4% tariff on electric vehicle (EV) power batteries and a 57.4% tariff on non-EV lithium-ion batteries from China. This substantial hike in tariffs will make Chinese-made batteries far more expensive and may eliminate the possibility of Chinese EV power batteries entering the US market. US consumers will likely absorb these costs, potentially leading to inflation in the US battery industry, especially in the energy storage sector.

China’s lithium-ion battery exports to the US had already been on the rise, with a 59% increase in exports during the first two months of the year. However, these new tariffs are expected to curb the growth of China's battery exports to the US and negatively affect lithium feedstock prices, which are currently at a four-year low.

Impact on Rare Earth Magnets

Rare earth magnets are another key area of concern, as these products were not exempted from the new tariffs. Despite some uncertainty about the exact tariff implementation, producers in China are anxious about the potential 54% tariff on rare earth magnets. China remains the dominant supplier of rare earth magnets globally, and while the US does have some alternatives, they are mostly focused on military applications with significantly higher prices. This makes it unlikely that the US can fully escape its dependence on China, especially for civilian applications.

China’s exports of rare earth magnets to the US in 2022 accounted for 12% of its total exports, and while tariffs could reduce this figure, China’s competitive pricing in the civil sector ensures its continued dominance in the global market.

Copper, Aluminium, and Hafnium: Other Affected Metals

While copper and aluminium are exempt from this latest round of tariffs, the copper industry remains on edge. US authorities are investigating the potential security implications of copper imports, and there’s speculation that a tariff may be imposed in the future. As for aluminium, Chinese exports are already subject to a steep 70% tariff, which is expected to discourage further aluminium exports to the US, pushing Chinese suppliers to seek alternative markets.

Hafnium, a critical metal used in aerospace applications, will also face a significant tariff hike, moving from 34% to 79%. This change could prompt US buyers to source hafnium from other regions, like Rotterdam, where the tariff is considerably lower.

Conclusion

The new US tariffs on Chinese metals exports are set to reshape the global metals market, particularly for lithium-ion batteries, rare earth magnets, and hafnium. While some sectors, like copper and aluminium, may have avoided immediate tariff hikes, long-term implications for the industry remain uncertain. The tariff increase on key metal exports from China to the US is expected to alter supply chains and increase costs for US consumers, especially in the EV and energy storage markets.

US Copper Scrap Exports Reach Six-Year High in 2024

Copper Scrap

Total Copper Scrap Shipments Surge by 15%, Led by Strong Demand from China and Asia

In 2024, US copper scrap exports hit their highest levels in six years, marking a 15% increase from the previous year. Total copper scrap exports rose to 310,200 metric tonnes (mt), up from 270,100 mt in 2023. According to data compiled by Global Trade Tracker, this surge reflects rising demand across all forms of copper scrap.

Strong Growth in Copper Scrap Exports to China and Asia

Among the different categories of copper scrap, exports of bare bright scrap increased by 1.7%, reaching 81,400 tonnes in 2024. A significant portion of this growth was driven by a 3,200-tonne increase in exports to China. Exports of #1 copper scrap, which rose by 20% to approximately 112,400 tonnes, were also dominated by demand from China, which received 19,700 tonnes more than the previous year. Similarly, exports of #2 copper scrap saw a 21% increase, totaling over 116,500 tonnes, with higher deliveries to China, Malaysia, and Thailand.

This growing demand from Asian markets, particularly China, has contributed to the rise in US copper scrap exports. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) copper price for 2024 averaged $4.23 per pound, a 37¢ increase compared to 2023. Asian #1 copper scrap discounts averaged 19¢ per pound under the CME price, widening from the previous year’s 13¢ per pound. As a result, consumers faced a 31¢ per pound increase compared to the previous year due to the elevated exchange price.

Copper Scrap Exports: A Key Indicator of Global Demand

The rise in US copper scrap exports is a clear indicator of the strong global demand for copper, particularly in Asia. With China and other countries ramping up their copper production and consumption, the US remains a critical player in the copper supply chain. As demand for copper continues to grow, especially for use in green technologies and infrastructure, copper scrap exports will likely remain a vital component of the global market.

US Titanium Scrap Imports and Exports Decline in 4Q Amid Supply Chain Disruptions

US Titanium Scrap

Titanium Scrap Trade Faces Challenges as US Imports and Exports Fall in the Fourth Quarter

US titanium scrap imports and exports experienced a decline in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to recent US customs data. Weaker demand, especially triggered by a seven-week strike at Boeing, led to disruptions in supply chains, significantly affecting titanium scrap trade volumes. Imports fell by 5% to 6,779 metric tonnes (t), marking the lowest total since the first quarter of 2024.

Factors Behind the Decline in US Titanium Scrap Imports

The 5% decrease in imports can be attributed to reduced demand for titanium scrap. Boeing's strike had a substantial impact on supply chains, particularly in aerospace, which is a major consumer of titanium. As a result, the overall import volume dropped. The UK remained the top source of titanium scrap to the US, increasing shipments by 21% to 1,235t, which accounted for about 18% of US imports. On the other hand, imports from Canada fell by 27% to 588t, while shipments from Germany and Japan also decreased by double digits.

US Exports and Shifting Global Markets

US titanium scrap exports also declined, albeit slightly. Total exports fell by 1% to 2,701t. This was primarily driven by reduced prices from overseas markets and the typical seasonal slowdown in manufacturing during the holidays. India emerged as the top destination for US titanium scrap, with exports rising by 59% to 689t. Conversely, exports to Canada fell by 23% to 599t, while shipments to the UK rose by 24% to 397t.

Exports to Mexico surged by 590%, reaching 352t, while exports to South Korea and Germany dropped significantly. Exports to South Korea fell by 77% to 56t, and shipments to Germany declined by 59% to 41t. Despite these fluctuations, US titanium scrap exports for the full year saw a significant increase, rising by 18% to 11,756t, the highest in four years.

Conclusion: A Mixed Outlook for US Titanium Scrap Trade

The fourth-quarter data reveals both challenges and opportunities in the US titanium scrap trade. While imports faced declines due to supply chain disruptions, export volumes saw a notable rise for the full year. The shift in export destinations, particularly the rise in demand from India and Mexico, suggests evolving global market dynamics for US titanium scrap. Going forward, the US titanium scrap trade will need to navigate these changes while adjusting to the impact of global supply chain and economic conditions.

US-Ecuador Trade Deal Could Open a New Path for Ecuadorian Copper Exports

US-Ecuador

The US-Ecuador trade deal could reshape trade flows for metals and other industrial goods. Ecuador and the US completed negotiations on a reciprocal agreement that will allow about half of Ecuadorian exports to enter the US tariff-free. That group includes copper, lead, and gold. As a result, the US-Ecuador trade deal could create a new opening for Ecuadorian copper exports.

This matters because copper concentrate from Ecuador currently faces tariffs in the US. Those duties raise the cost of entry and reduce Ecuador’s competitiveness in the American market. Removing that barrier could improve the commercial case for future shipments. Therefore, the US-Ecuador trade deal may become more important for copper trade than current export patterns suggest.

At present, Ecuadorian copper exports are heavily concentrated elsewhere. Most copper concentrate shipments go to China, with smaller volumes going to Peru and South Korea. Ecuador exported no copper to the US in 2025 despite strong overall copper concentrate growth. Consequently, the US-Ecuador trade deal could diversify export destinations even if change is gradual at first.

Ecuadorian Copper Exports Could Become Less China-Centric

Ecuadorian copper exports have grown strongly, but they remain concentrated in one market. From January to November 2025, Ecuador exported more than 605,000t of copper concentrate globally. Revenue reached about $1.5bn over that period. However, 96.5pc of that volume went to China.

That concentration creates both scale and risk. China offers strong demand, but overdependence on one destination can limit bargaining power and trade flexibility. A tariff-free path into the US would give Ecuador another strategic outlet. As a result, Ecuadorian copper exports could become more balanced over time.

The shift will not happen automatically. Trade agreements can open doors, but actual volumes depend on commercial relationships, treatment terms, logistics, and buyer interest. Even so, tariff-free copper trade would improve Ecuador’s position in future negotiations. Therefore, the US-Ecuador trade deal gives Ecuador more optionality in a critical export sector.

Ecuador Non-Oil Exports Gain a Broader Strategic Boost

Ecuador non-oil exports could also benefit far beyond copper. The agreement covers dozens of products, including metals, agricultural goods, and fisheries products. Ecuador expects the deal to lift non-oil exports to the US by about 15pc each year. That would support a broader diversification strategy across the economy.

This wider context matters for metals as well. A stronger trade framework can improve investor confidence in export-oriented mining and processing. It can also encourage companies to think more seriously about the US as a destination market. Meanwhile, tariff-free copper trade would fit neatly into a broader non-oil export expansion plan.

The agreement also arrives at a time when the US wants more secure and diversified supply chains across the Americas. That creates a favorable backdrop for Ecuadorian producers seeking new buyers. As a result, the US-Ecuador trade deal could gain strategic value beyond its immediate tariff effects.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This deal matters because it gives Ecuador a chance to reduce export concentration without abandoning its strongest market. The biggest opportunity is not instant copper volume to the US. It is the creation of a second serious commercial path for Ecuador’s growing metals sector.

Chile Leads Global Lithium and Copper Exports in 2024

Chile Copper Mining

Copper exports strengthen Chile’s global leadership

Chile maintained its position as the world’s leading copper exporter in 2024, driving both value and volume. The Chile lithium and copper exports reached over $50bn, accounting for 15pc of global copper trade, according to Subrei. The country produced 5.3mn t of copper, or 23pc of global output, with state-owned Codelco contributing 1.44mn t. Chile dominated shipments of copper concentrates and cathodes, with the EU sourcing 39pc of its cathode imports from Chile and India receiving a third of its concentrates from Chilean producers.

Lithium exports secure global dominance

Although second to Australia in lithium production, Chile led the world in lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) exports. The Chile lithium and copper exports accounted for 78pc of global LCE trade, worth $2.6bn. Chile produced 285,000t of LCE in 2024, with SQM maintaining exclusive production and sales of lithium hydroxide domestically. Major markets for Chile’s LCE included China, the US, the EU and Japan, while lithium hydroxide exports were focused on Brazil and the US.

Chile also led in molybdenum, securing the top spot in exports of molybdenum oxides and hydroxides with a 40pc share, and roasted oxides with 33pc of global trade. It ranked fourth globally in ferro-molybdenum exports, reinforcing its role as a critical supplier of strategic minerals.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Chile’s dual dominance in lithium and copper exports highlights its pivotal role in global supply chains for energy transition metals. However, this dependence on a narrow set of commodities exposes the country to price volatility and geopolitical risk. Strategic investment in downstream processing and value-added production could strengthen Chile’s industrial resilience.

China Rare Earth Exports Q1 2025 Reach 19-Year High on Global Restocking

China Rare Earth

China rare earth exports Q1 2025 surged to their highest level since 2006, driven by strong restocking from global buyers. In January–March, Japan, the US, and the Netherlands accounted for 74% of China's total rare earth exports, while notable year-on-year growth came from Spain, France, Thailand, and Brazil.

Lanthanum, Cerium, and Yttrium Drive Export Growth

Exports of lanthanum products rose 17% to 6,179t, led by US demand, which surged to 3,336t — over half of total exports. The Netherlands and Japan followed with 1,200t and 1,130t respectively. Meanwhile, China rare earth exports Q1 2025 also saw cerium shipments increase 41% to 2,405t. Japan remained the top destination, but Taiwan rapidly climbed to second place with a 542t import volume.

Yttrium shipments also advanced 14% year-on-year to 817t. Japan led with 509t, followed by the US and Germany. This reflects broad-based growth in high-tech industries such as EVs, displays, and catalysts.

Dysprosium and Terbium Trade Show Mixed Trends

Dysprosium exports climbed to 47t, up from 42t, as South Korea became the largest buyer with a sharp jump to 17t. Meanwhile, Japan’s demand fell drastically from 24t to just 1t. Terbium oxide exports dipped slightly to 23t, but Japan still accounted for 74% of the total.

Regional Shifts and Strategic Materials Outlook

China rare earth exports Q1 2025 highlight shifting trade dynamics, especially with the US, EU, and East Asian partners. The redistribution of demand — particularly in yttrium and dysprosium — suggests adjustments in global supply chains and sourcing diversification amid ongoing geopolitical and industrial transformation.

China RE

 

The Metalnomist Commentary

The record-breaking rise in China rare earth exports Q1 2025 underscores how critical these materials remain to global high-tech supply chains. Rising diversification in buyer countries points to a more fragmented but resilient rare earth trade landscape ahead.

India exports first low-grade manganese ore as Moil opens new trade channel

Manganese Ore

India exports first low-grade manganese ore as state-owned miner Moil ships its first cargo to Indonesia. The move, where India exports first low-grade manganese ore under a new State Trading Enterprise mandate, highlights New Delhi’s push to monetise surplus low-grade Mn fines. As India exports first low-grade manganese ore, it also signals a more active role in seaborne minerals markets.

Moil leads India’s first low-grade manganese ore export

Moil has executed India’s first low-grade manganese ore export through the port of Visakhapatnam. The inaugural consignment totalled 54,600t and sailed for Indonesia on 22 August. Under the State Trading Enterprise regime, Moil now controls all exports of manganese ore below 46pc grade.

This mandate centralises export decision-making for low-grade Mn ore in a single state-backed entity. Therefore Moil can aggregate domestic supply, coordinate pricing and negotiate offtake with overseas buyers. The new mechanism also connects Indian suppliers with international customers, improving transparency and logistics.

India exports first low-grade manganese ore at a time when many steelmakers prefer higher-grade feedstock. However, low-grade material remains attractive for specific processes, blending and cost-sensitive markets. Indonesia’s growing manganese and alloy demand provides a natural first destination for this trade.

Surplus low-grade Mn reserves drive export strategy

India holds large reserves of low-grade manganese ore that exceed domestic demand. Historically, these fines faced limited commercial outlets or were underutilised in domestic steel and alloy production. As a result, policymakers now see exports as a way to unlock stranded value and diversify mineral revenues.

By ensuring India exports first low-grade manganese ore through a structured channel, Moil can build a pricing and quality benchmark. Over time, repeat shipments could establish Indian-origin low-grade Mn as a recognised segment in Asian markets. Meanwhile, exports may help optimise mine plans by monetising materials previously considered marginal.

The state’s decision to use a dedicated trading enterprise also aims to avoid fragmented, opportunistic deals. A coordinated approach can support better freight optimisation, contract discipline and adherence to environmental and social standards. If successful, this model could be replicated for other surplus low-grade ores.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s first low-grade manganese export is small in global volume terms but big in signalling intent. If Moil can scale this trade while maintaining quality and reliability, India could emerge as a regular low-grade Mn supplier to Southeast Asia. Market participants should watch future tenders, destination diversity and pricing trends against African and Australian material.

China's Antimony Exports Surge Ahead of Export Controls

China's Antimony

China’s antimony metal exports saw a significant rise in August, spurred by a rush to secure stocks before the nation’s export controls came into effect on 15 September. Western buyers, anticipating the restrictions, increased their purchases, leading to a spike in exports. China exported 423 tonnes of antimony metal in August, up from 267 tonnes in July. However, this figure remains below the 578 tonnes exported in the same period last year. Year-to-date exports for 2024 totaled 2,384 tonnes, marking a 32% decrease compared to the previous year, according to customs data.

Impact of Export Controls on Future Shipments

Market analysts predict that antimony exports will drop sharply in September as many exporters have already suspended shipments. Future export application requirements could further limit large-volume exports of the material. This trend follows a broader pattern of firms adjusting their strategies to comply with upcoming regulatory changes.

China’s antimony oxide exports also rose, reaching 3,389 tonnes in August, up from 2,799 tonnes in July. Overseas buyers have similarly stockpiled antimony oxides ahead of the controls, although most oxide exports remain unaffected by the licensing system since only material with purity above 99.99% falls under the new restrictions. Still, many export firms have paused oxide shipments due to document processing upgrades, and August exports were slightly down from the 3,731 tonnes recorded a year earlier. The first eight months of 2024 saw antimony oxide exports rise to 23,483 tonnes, a slight 0.68% increase year-on-year.

China Gallium Exports Collapse in April as Restrictions Hit Japan Supply

Gallium

China gallium exports collapsed in April as export restrictions sharply reduced shipments to Japan and buying from other key markets slowed after earlier purchases. Customs data showed China exported only 3kg of gallium during the month, all of it wrought material shipped to Malaysia.

China gallium exports were dramatically lower than April 2025, when shipments totalled 4,777kg. That earlier volume included 4,627kg of wrought gallium and 150kg of unwrought material.

China gallium exports remain highly sensitive to licensing controls because the metal is a strategic input for compound semiconductors, radio-frequency electronics, power devices and advanced manufacturing. The April data show how policy restrictions can quickly override normal trade patterns in a small but critical materials market.

The sharp monthly fall also highlights the fragility of gallium supply for downstream users. Even when year-to-date exports remain higher, licensing shifts can leave individual buyers exposed to sudden supply gaps.

Japan Restrictions Reshape Gallium Trade Flows

Japan has traditionally been one of China’s most important gallium export destinations. China exported 42t of gallium to Japan in 2025 before bilateral relations worsened and export controls tightened.

China has prohibited exports of dual-use items for Japanese military use and introduced tighter controls on exports to 40 Japanese companies since January. The measures followed comments by Japan’s leadership on Taiwan that deepened political tensions between the two countries.

These restrictions are expected to continue because bilateral relations show no clear sign of easing. That creates a direct supply-chain issue for Japanese semiconductor, electronics and advanced materials users.

Gallium’s industrial importance is larger than its physical volume. It is used in materials such as gallium nitride and gallium arsenide, which support high-frequency, high-efficiency and high-performance electronic applications.

Japan’s exposure therefore matters for more than one metal trade route. It affects supply security for sectors tied to semiconductors, defence electronics, optoelectronics and advanced manufacturing.

The April collapse also shows how export controls work in practice. They do not need to stop all global shipments to disrupt specific customers. Targeted licensing limits can redirect trade flows and force buyers to rely on inventories, alternative suppliers or delayed procurement.

German Buying Masks Underlying Weakness in Year-to-Date Exports

The January-April export picture looks stronger than April alone. China exported 16,353kg of gallium in the first four months of the year, up 14% from 14,294kg in the same period of 2025.

That increase was mainly driven by German buying earlier in the year. Germany received 16t from China in January-March, but buyers there did not renew purchases in April.

China shipped 22.3t of gallium to Germany in 2025, mostly in the second half, after a major Chinese supplier obtained export permission. This shows how gallium flows now depend heavily on licence availability and timing.

The contrast between strong early German purchases and almost no April exports is important. It suggests that year-to-date data can hide short-term supply stress when licensing-driven shipments are concentrated in a few windows.

For buyers, the key issue is no longer only price. It is whether export licences can be obtained, how much volume is approved and whether shipments can be repeated consistently.

For western semiconductor supply chains, gallium remains a strategic vulnerability. China still has strong influence over supply availability, and small changes in export permissions can have outsized effects on downstream procurement.

The April data therefore reinforce a broader critical minerals lesson. Thin markets such as gallium can become highly unstable when trade policy, diplomatic tensions and dual-use controls intersect.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Gallium is proving that strategic materials risk often appears first in licensing volumes, not headline prices. Japan’s exposure shows why semiconductor supply chains must treat gallium security as a policy risk as much as a procurement issue.

China Titanium Sponge Exports Rise in March as Asian Buyers Support Demand

China Titanium Sponge

China titanium sponge exports rose year on year in March, supported by stronger buying interest from South Korea, India, Vietnam and Slovenia. Chinese customs data showed exports reached 453t during the month, up 8.6% from 417t a year earlier.

China titanium sponge exports still declined by 7.4% from February’s 489t, showing that overseas buying remained selective. Some buyers were not under immediate pressure to purchase Chinese material because spot supply was sufficient.

China titanium sponge exports totalled 1,535t in January-March, down 5.7% from a year earlier. The decline reflected weaker buying from major consumers including Japan, South Korea and the US.

The data show a titanium sponge export market that is recovering unevenly. Asian demand helped March shipments, but inventory drawdowns, delayed purchasing and weaker aerospace-linked orders continued to limit broader export momentum.

Japan, South Korea and US Demand Weaken in First Quarter

Japan remained the largest destination for Chinese titanium sponge in January-March, receiving 347t. However, shipments fell by 37% from 548t a year earlier.

The decline was mainly caused by delayed purchasing from a major Japanese consumer. Purchases are expected to resume in May, which could support later-quarter export flows.

South Korean imports from China also fell. Shipments dropped by 33% to 172t as some buyers slowed procurement after failing to secure downstream aerospace original equipment manufacturer orders.

This matters because aerospace demand remains one of the most important drivers of higher-grade titanium sponge consumption. When downstream aerospace orders are delayed, sponge buyers often reduce spot intake and work through inventories.

US demand was almost absent in the first quarter. China exported only 0.2t of titanium sponge to the US, down 99.8% from a year earlier, as US consumers continued drawing down inventories.

The US result highlights the effect of inventory cycles and trade uncertainty. Even when Chinese material remains available, buyers may delay purchases if they have sufficient stock or face qualification, tariff and policy risk.

Export Prices Track Higher Domestic Sponge Market

Chinese 99.7% grade titanium sponge export prices averaged $6.70/kg fob China in January-March. This was up 1.5% from $6.60/kg a year earlier.

The increase tracked higher domestic titanium sponge prices. Export pricing therefore reflected cost support in China rather than a broad surge in overseas demand.

The modest price rise also shows that the market remains balanced. Chinese suppliers have support from domestic costs, but overseas buyers are still cautious and selective.

For global titanium supply chains, the key issue is not only volume. The quality, qualification status and end-use requirements of sponge matter, especially for aerospace and high-performance industrial applications.

China’s titanium sponge exports remain important for regional buyers in Asia and Europe. However, demand from aerospace-linked customers will depend on downstream order visibility, inventory levels and qualification confidence.

If Japanese buying resumes in May and South Korean aerospace-related demand improves, Chinese exports could recover further. But weak US flows suggest that trade and inventory factors will continue to limit upside in some markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China titanium sponge exports show a market supported by regional buying but still constrained by aerospace order timing and inventory drawdowns. The next signal will come from whether Japanese and South Korean buyers return with stronger qualified-material demand in the second quarter.

Mexico’s Trade Deficit Surges in August Amid Rising Imports and Export Challenges

Mexico’s trade deficit reached $4.87 billion in August 2024, a sharp increase fueled by heightened imports and slowing demand for manufacturing exports. This August figure vastly exceeded June’s deficit of $72 million, according to final data from Mexico’s national statistics agency, Inegi. For the first eight months of 2024, the country’s trade deficit totaled $10.44 billion, up from $8.43 billion during the same period last year.

The widening deficit reflects stronger domestic demand for non-oil consumer goods, while a weaker North American manufacturing sector weighed on Mexico’s manufacturing exports. “Strong domestic demand boosted imports of non-oil consumer goods, while the weak North American manufacturing sector hurt Mexican manufacturing exports,” commented Alejandro Cervantes, head of quantitative research at Banorte.

Oil and Non-Oil Trade Divide

Inegi’s trade data separates Mexican trade into "oil" and "non-oil" categories. Oil encompasses crude oil, natural gas, and petrochemicals, while non-oil includes exports such as vehicles, agricultural goods, and minerals. In August, seasonally adjusted exports fell 2.8% from July, totaling $54.8 billion. Oil exports decreased by 4.1% to $2.25 billion, while non-oil exports declined by 2.7% to $49.7 billion.

Crude exports, valued at $1.72 billion, saw an average price of $72.24 per barrel, down from $74.86 in July and $76.88 in August 2023. Volumes also dropped to 716,000 barrels per day, down from 817,000 barrels in July and 1.11 million barrels a year earlier.

Imports, meanwhile, rose 3.4% in August to $56.8 billion, driven by a 5.4% increase in oil imports and a 3.2% rise in non-oil imports. Banorte analysts anticipate a potential slowdown in imports as costs rise and the export outlook remains uncertain. The depreciation of the Mexican peso since June, from Ps16.31 to Ps19.49 against the U.S. dollar by October 10, could stimulate exports but is likely to dampen import demand, particularly for consumer goods.

Ukraine Reboots Silico-Manganese Exports in Q2 2024

Resumption After Halt

Ukraine resumed its silico-manganese exports in the second quarter of 2024, following a significant halt in the first quarter due to the closure of the Ukrainian ferro-alloy supply chain caused by ongoing conflict. This halt at the end of 2023 led to zero exports during the initial months of 2024.

Gradual Increase in Export Volumes

According to Ukrainian export data, the country’s silico-manganese exports surged from zero in Q1 to 22,081 tons in Q2. The rise was gradual, with April exports at 206 tons, May at 4,877 tons, and June seeing a substantial increase to 16,998 tons. Despite this rebound, exports remain significantly lower compared to previous operational levels, with Q2 exports down 83% year-on-year.

Challenges Ahead

Ukraine’s ferro-alloy industry, traditionally a significant European producer, is dominated by five major companies, including two manganese ore producers and three ferro-alloy plants. By the end of 2023, all five had ceased operations, leading to a sharp drop in exports. The Nikopol Ferro-alloy Plant and Zaporizhzhia Ferro-alloy Plant, part of the Privat Group, have capacities of 1.2 million tons per year and 400,000 tons per year, respectively. Although exports are resuming, traders do not expect a significant short-term impact on silico-manganese prices due to the limited quantities involved. The industry will continue to face pressure from high energy costs and a shortage of skilled labor due to the ongoing conflict with Russia.

US copper scrap exports rise in July

Copper Scrap

US copper scrap exports rise in July as buyers shift from China to other Asian markets. Total copper scrap exports rose 16pc year on year to 29,005t, extending a three-month uptrend amid changing trade flows. However, weakness in China’s economy and property sector curbed its intake every month since December, forcing US suppliers to diversify destinations. Meanwhile, US copper scrap exports rise in July also reflects pre-emptive buying before proposed US tariffs intended to promote domestic sourcing. Therefore, exporters leaned into stronger demand from Japan and India, while China-bound volumes collapsed.

Trade flows pivot to Japan and India

US copper scrap exports rise in July with Japan showing the largest gain, adding 4,973t of receipts. As a result, shipments to China fell by 95pc, a drop of 11,081t, underscoring a decisive market pivot. Moreover, bare bright volumes surged 120pc to 13,200t on increased exports to India, offsetting declines in #1 and #2 grades. However, #1 copper scrap slipped 3pc to 8,916t as China took just 135t versus 5,288t a year earlier. Exports of #2 scrap fell 30pc to 6,888t, marking an eighth straight monthly decline led by a 98pc collapse to China.

Price arbitrage widens discounts and drives opportunistic sales

US copper scrap exports rise in July amid record CME pricing and wider arbitrage. The CME next-active copper contract averaged $5.48/lb, up $1.12/lb from July 2024, and set a $5.82/lb daily high. Consequently, Asian #1 scrap discounts widened to an average 83¢/lb under CME versus 25¢/lb a year earlier. Consumers still paid $4.65/lb for #1 scrap, 54¢/lb more year on year, reflecting exchange-linked uplift. Meanwhile, an average $1.08/lb arbitrage, up from 45¢/lb in June, encouraged July buying as market participants positioned around proposed US trade measures. The announced 50pc duty on copper cathodes slated for 1 August was not implemented, but the signaling effect supported mid-summer export activity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The shift away from China and toward Japan and India confirms a structural re-routing of US copper scrap. Watch discounts versus CME and policy headlines as leading indicators for Q4 flows, while grade-mix dynamics may continue to favor bare bright over #1 and #2.

Brazil Mineral Exports Rise as Imports Climb on Fertilizer Feedstock Demand

Brazil Mining

Brazil mineral exports increased in the first quarter of 2026, while imports rose more sharply as the country continued to rely on overseas supply for fertilizer-related minerals. National mining institute Ibram reported that mineral exports rose by nearly 1% from a year earlier, while imports increased by 15%.

Brazil mineral exports reached around 87.9mn t in the quarter, with China remaining the main destination. Iron ore accounted for nearly 54% of total shipments, reinforcing its central role in Brazil’s mining trade balance.

Brazil mineral exports continued to support a large sectoral surplus. The mineral trade surplus reached around $9.3bn in the first quarter, up 20% from the same period in 2025, supported by exports of iron ore, gold and copper.

Iron Ore, Gold and Copper Anchor Brazil’s Mining Surplus

Iron ore remained Brazil’s dominant mineral export in the first quarter. This reflects the country’s established role as one of the world’s key suppliers to steelmaking markets, especially China.

Gold and copper also contributed to export value. These metals are strategically important because gold supports financial and industrial demand, while copper is increasingly tied to grids, electrification, construction and manufacturing.

The rise in the mining trade surplus shows that Brazil’s mineral sector remains a strong foreign-exchange earner. Even modest export volume growth can generate a larger surplus when high-value commodities and stronger pricing conditions support trade values.

China’s role remains especially important. Brazilian iron ore exports depend heavily on Chinese steel demand, infrastructure activity and industrial production. Any slowdown in China can therefore affect Brazil’s mining revenue outlook.

Imports Highlight Fertilizer and Industrial Supply Dependence

Brazil imported 10mn t of mineral products in the first quarter. The US was the largest supplier, accounting for 19% of mineral imports, while Colombia and Canada each supplied about 13%.

Potassium, coal and sulphur led import flows. These materials are important for fertilizer supply and industrial activity, showing that Brazil’s mineral strength does not remove its dependence on imported inputs.

Potassium is especially important for Brazil’s agricultural sector. The country is a major global food producer, but fertilizer supply remains exposed to international trade flows and geopolitical risk.

Sulphur imports also matter because sulphur is used to produce sulphuric acid, a critical input for fertilizers, chemical processing and some mining operations. Coal imports continue to support industrial and energy-related demand.

Ibram projects mining sector investment to rise by 12.5% by 2030, reaching $76.9bn. Critical minerals could account for almost 28% of that total, or $21.3bn.

This investment outlook points to a broader shift in Brazil’s mining strategy. Iron ore will remain the export backbone, but copper, nickel, lithium, rare earths, graphite and other critical minerals could gain strategic importance as global supply chains diversify.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Brazil’s first-quarter trade data show a mining sector that remains strong in exports but still dependent on imported fertilizer and industrial inputs. The next opportunity lies in converting critical minerals investment into higher-value production beyond the country’s traditional iron ore base.

US Copper Scrap Exports Continue to Climb in June, Despite Mixed Performance Across Categories

U.S. copper scrap exports sustained their upward momentum in June, marking an 8 percent increase compared to the same period last year. This growth, driven by heightened shipments of bare bright and #2 copper, managed to offset a decline in #1 copper exports.

In total, copper scrap exports for June reached 22,573 metric tonnes, up from 20,850 metric tonnes in June 2023. This marks the eighth consecutive month of year-over-year growth in the sector. Over the first half of 2024, U.S. copper scrap exports totaled 156,756 metric tonnes, reflecting a 22 percent increase compared to the first half of the previous year.

The volume of bare bright scrap exports, although rising 3 percent from the previous year to 5,637 metric tonnes, represented the lowest monthly total in the past year due to a significant 13 percent drop in shipments to China. In contrast, exports of #1 copper scrap fell sharply by 17 percent to 7,033 metric tonnes, with four Asian countries reducing their import volumes.

Meanwhile, #2 copper scrap exports saw a robust 44 percent surge to 9,903 metric tonnes, largely driven by increased demand from China and Malaysia.

On the pricing front, Comex copper for June averaged $4.50 per pound, an increase of 70 cents per pound from June 2023. However, this was the lowest monthly average since April, as the U.S. dollar gained strength during the month. As a result, consumers faced an average year-over-year cost increase of 69 cents per pound.

Despite the higher prices, market activity was slower than in May, with sellers indicating that while buyers could be found, the terms were increasingly favorable to the buyers. Hopes that China would introduce stimulus measures in July to bolster its property market and boost demand for copper ultimately proved unfounded, as the country refrained from injecting funds into its struggling economy.

US Copper Scrap Exports Surge by 17% in October

US Copper Scrap

US copper scrap exports witnessed a remarkable 17% growth in October 2024 compared to the previous year, driven by increases in @1 and @2 copper shipments.

Strong Year-Over-Year Growth in Exports

The United States exported nearly 26,200 metric tonnes of copper scrap in October 2024, a significant rise from approximately 22,500 tonnes during the same period in 2023. This marks the 12th consecutive month of year-over-year increases, hitting the highest monthly total since May 2024.

However, the rise in total exports was contrasted by a 4% decline in bare bright copper scrap shipments, which fell to approximately 6,700 tonnes. Notable reductions in exports to Greece and South Korea contributed to this decline.

@1 and @2 Copper Scrap Lead Export Growth

Exports of @1 copper scrap surged by an impressive 31%, reaching nearly 10,000 tonnes. China was the primary driver, with an additional 1,800 tonnes compared to last year. While exports to Germany saw a decline, China’s demand more than compensated for the dip.

Similarly, @2 copper scrap exports climbed by 21%, surpassing 9,400 tonnes. The growth was fueled by heightened deliveries to major importing nations such as China, Malaysia, and Belgium.

Copper Prices and Market Trends

The October average for CME copper futures reached $4.42 per pound, marking an 81¢ increase from October 2023 and the highest monthly average since June 2024. Meanwhile, Asian @1 copper scrap discounts widened to 19.5¢/lb under CME prices, compared to 11¢/lb under in the previous year.

The elevated exchange prices, coupled with optimism for a stronger Chinese economy, drove higher consumer costs, averaging 73¢/lb above last year. The market responded to policy signals from China’s Ministry of Finance, including potential support for the real estate sector. These measures briefly boosted copper demand expectations, although the rally was short-lived. Market participants remain hopeful for further economic stimulus to drive China closer to its 5% growth target.

China’s rare earth magnet exports slip in 2025 as controls tighten and approvals later accelerate

Rare earth Magnet

China’s rare earth magnet exports slip in 2025 after export controls tightened in early April. China’s rare earth magnet exports slip in 2025 mainly because shipments weakened in April through June. Therefore, the annual decline stayed modest despite a sharp second-quarter shock.

China exported 57,390t of rare earth permanent magnets in 2025, down 1.3% year on year. The average export price also eased 2.5% to $48,037/t. Meanwhile, lower second-quarter volumes drove most of the annual slippage.

China’s rare earth magnet exports slip in 2025 because May volumes sank to 1,238t, the weakest since early 2020. Controls introduced on 4 April hit licensing speed and shipment timing. However, exports began rebounding in June as approvals accelerated for selected markets.

Licensing shifts reshaped quarterly flows, not just annual totals

China restored more normal shipment patterns from July as authorities issued more export permits. Later, China introduced general export licences in late November for dual-use items, including magnets. As a result, suppliers could ship multiple lots under a one-year permit without reapplying each time.

That change improved predictability for compliant civilian demand. However, it also reinforced a more managed trade model that can tighten quickly. Therefore, buyers will keep building compliance buffers and alternative sourcing options.

Winners and losers by destination reveal policy and demand signals

Germany, the US, Vietnam, and South Korea ranked as top destinations and took about half of 2025 shipments. Exports to France, India, Mexico, and Japan increased versus the prior year. Meanwhile, shipments fell to several European countries, the US, and the Philippines.

December exports slipped 3.2% month on month to 5,951t but rose 6.7% year on year. Prices strengthened to $50,568/t in December, up from November and far above December 2024. As a result, the year ended with firmer pricing even as volumes stayed policy-sensitive.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This data shows a controlled-market “valve,” not a supply collapse. However, the licensing regime makes lead times a strategic variable for OEMs. Companies that qualify fast and diversify feedstocks will defend production stability.

China Imposes Export Restrictions on Key Metals to the US Amid Trade Tensions

China's ministry of commerce

China has announced a significant decision to suspend exports of several critical metals to the United States, escalating trade tensions between the two global economic powerhouses. Effective immediately, exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony are halted, and stricter inspections are enforced on graphite exports, as per the directives issued by China's Ministry of Commerce on December 3rd.

Trade Implications and US Reliance on Chinese Metals

China, categorizing these materials as "dual-use" items, indicates their potential use in both civilian and military applications. The immediate prohibition of gallium and germanium exports could severely impact the US economy, given its substantial reliance on these metals for various technological and industrial applications. According to the US Geological Survey, a complete cessation could lead to a sharp decline in the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by approximately $3.1 billion within a year, potentially reaching $3.4 billion if germanium exports are also completely halted.

The US has been heavily dependent on Chinese supplies of these metals, with antimony imports from China constituting 22% of total US imports from January 2022 to October 2024. Antimony trioxide imports from China during the same period accounted for 69% of the total US intake.

Global Supply Chain and Economic Ramifications

This strategic move by Beijing is a direct countermeasure against the United States' third crackdown on China's semiconductor industry, which involved placing restrictions on semiconductor exports to 140 Chinese companies just a day before, on December 2nd. These restrictions by the US have been described by China's commerce ministry as a politicization and weaponization of economic and technological issues, severely undermining the stability of global supply chains and international trade rules.

China's stern response also includes new legislations passed in late October and a comprehensive list issued in mid-November aimed at controlling exports of dual-use items. With the new measures, exports to any US buyers with military end-use are explicitly prohibited.