US Copper Scrap Exports Reach Six-Year High in 2024

Copper Scrap

Total Copper Scrap Shipments Surge by 15%, Led by Strong Demand from China and Asia

In 2024, US copper scrap exports hit their highest levels in six years, marking a 15% increase from the previous year. Total copper scrap exports rose to 310,200 metric tonnes (mt), up from 270,100 mt in 2023. According to data compiled by Global Trade Tracker, this surge reflects rising demand across all forms of copper scrap.

Strong Growth in Copper Scrap Exports to China and Asia

Among the different categories of copper scrap, exports of bare bright scrap increased by 1.7%, reaching 81,400 tonnes in 2024. A significant portion of this growth was driven by a 3,200-tonne increase in exports to China. Exports of #1 copper scrap, which rose by 20% to approximately 112,400 tonnes, were also dominated by demand from China, which received 19,700 tonnes more than the previous year. Similarly, exports of #2 copper scrap saw a 21% increase, totaling over 116,500 tonnes, with higher deliveries to China, Malaysia, and Thailand.

This growing demand from Asian markets, particularly China, has contributed to the rise in US copper scrap exports. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) copper price for 2024 averaged $4.23 per pound, a 37¢ increase compared to 2023. Asian #1 copper scrap discounts averaged 19¢ per pound under the CME price, widening from the previous year’s 13¢ per pound. As a result, consumers faced a 31¢ per pound increase compared to the previous year due to the elevated exchange price.

Copper Scrap Exports: A Key Indicator of Global Demand

The rise in US copper scrap exports is a clear indicator of the strong global demand for copper, particularly in Asia. With China and other countries ramping up their copper production and consumption, the US remains a critical player in the copper supply chain. As demand for copper continues to grow, especially for use in green technologies and infrastructure, copper scrap exports will likely remain a vital component of the global market.

China Plans to Boost Domestic Copper Resources and Scrap Usage by 2027

China Copper Resources

The country's strategy focuses on expanding copper production and enhancing secondary material utilization.

China has announced plans to increase its domestic copper resources by 5-10% by 2027, along with a significant push to boost the use of secondary materials such as copper scrap. According to a February 11th statement from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the country will focus on expanding copper exploration and production in several key regions. These efforts align with China’s broader strategy to enhance its copper supply chain and reduce dependency on external sources.

Increased Domestic Copper Exploration and Smelting Projects

As part of its initiative, China will promote exploration in regions such as Tibet, Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Heilongjiang provinces. The country has already made substantial progress in discovering new copper resources, with over 20 million tonnes of new copper found in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since 2021. This is double the quantity discovered during the 2016-2020 period. To further boost copper production, China plans to develop new copper mines in these regions and integrate new smelting projects with concentrate production facilities. These projects are expected to play a key role in meeting the country’s growing demand for refined copper.

Boosting Copper Scrap Utilization

Another significant aspect of China’s strategy is increasing the use of copper scrap. Copper smelters will be encouraged to use more secondary copper, which has already become a major feedstock in the production of refined copper. In 2023, more than 31% of China's refined copper came from scrap, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA). To support this, the government plans to back the construction of new copper scrap recycling facilities and increase imports of copper scrap. In 2024, China’s copper scrap imports rose by 13%, reaching over 2.25 million tonnes, as smelters shifted to more cost-effective scrap rather than concentrates due to higher concentrate prices.

Global Copper Supply and Smelting Capacity

China’s increased demand for copper concentrate, along with the country’s focus on smelting capacity expansions, is expected to tighten global copper concentrate supply. This supply crunch has already led to a decline in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) since 2024. Market participants suggest that smelting capacity expansions may outpace new copper mine projects, contributing to continued global supply tightness in 2025.

Conclusion

China’s push to increase domestic copper resources and enhance the use of secondary materials, such as copper scrap, reflects a strategic move to secure its position in the global copper market. With growing demand for refined copper and a constrained global supply of copper concentrates, the country’s efforts to expand production capacity and increase recycling will be essential to meeting future copper needs.

US copper scrap exports rise in July

Copper Scrap

US copper scrap exports rise in July as buyers shift from China to other Asian markets. Total copper scrap exports rose 16pc year on year to 29,005t, extending a three-month uptrend amid changing trade flows. However, weakness in China’s economy and property sector curbed its intake every month since December, forcing US suppliers to diversify destinations. Meanwhile, US copper scrap exports rise in July also reflects pre-emptive buying before proposed US tariffs intended to promote domestic sourcing. Therefore, exporters leaned into stronger demand from Japan and India, while China-bound volumes collapsed.

Trade flows pivot to Japan and India

US copper scrap exports rise in July with Japan showing the largest gain, adding 4,973t of receipts. As a result, shipments to China fell by 95pc, a drop of 11,081t, underscoring a decisive market pivot. Moreover, bare bright volumes surged 120pc to 13,200t on increased exports to India, offsetting declines in #1 and #2 grades. However, #1 copper scrap slipped 3pc to 8,916t as China took just 135t versus 5,288t a year earlier. Exports of #2 scrap fell 30pc to 6,888t, marking an eighth straight monthly decline led by a 98pc collapse to China.

Price arbitrage widens discounts and drives opportunistic sales

US copper scrap exports rise in July amid record CME pricing and wider arbitrage. The CME next-active copper contract averaged $5.48/lb, up $1.12/lb from July 2024, and set a $5.82/lb daily high. Consequently, Asian #1 scrap discounts widened to an average 83¢/lb under CME versus 25¢/lb a year earlier. Consumers still paid $4.65/lb for #1 scrap, 54¢/lb more year on year, reflecting exchange-linked uplift. Meanwhile, an average $1.08/lb arbitrage, up from 45¢/lb in June, encouraged July buying as market participants positioned around proposed US trade measures. The announced 50pc duty on copper cathodes slated for 1 August was not implemented, but the signaling effect supported mid-summer export activity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The shift away from China and toward Japan and India confirms a structural re-routing of US copper scrap. Watch discounts versus CME and policy headlines as leading indicators for Q4 flows, while grade-mix dynamics may continue to favor bare bright over #1 and #2.

US Tariffs Pressure Copper Prices and Curb China’s Scrap Imports

China Copper

US tariffs, introduced by President Donald Trump on April 2, have significantly impacted global copper prices. The tariffs, set at a minimum 10% tax on all foreign imports, have caused concerns about weakened copper demand, particularly from key industries that rely on copper, such as automobiles and home appliances. China’s copper scrap imports are also under pressure due to retaliatory tariffs, which will be implemented by China on April 10.

Impact of Tariffs on Copper Prices

Following the announcement of tariffs, copper prices saw a dramatic decline. As of April 7, London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper prices fell to a one-year low of $8,105 per ton, a significant drop from $9,721 per ton on April 2. Similarly, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) prices also plummeted to a three-month low of 73,640 yuan per ton from 79,890 yuan per ton during the same period.

Although copper itself is not directly affected by the new tariffs, the downstream sectors, such as automotive manufacturing and home appliances, face substantial tariffs. This will likely depress demand for copper, as these industries represent significant end-users of copper products.

US Tariffs on Cars and Appliances Affect Copper Demand

A 25% tariff on imported cars and trucks came into effect on April 3, with a further 25% tax on auto parts set to follow in May. The US light vehicle market saw significant growth in 2024, with sales climbing to 16.8 million units. Similarly, the US imported $23.5 billion worth of home appliances from China in 2024. These appliances, including cooling devices and electronics, represented 23% of global copper demand in 2023. The imposition of tariffs on these goods will likely lead to a reduction in copper demand from the US.

On a positive note, lower copper prices may drive copper fabricators to restock in the short term, especially after a significant price drop in late March. Data from the SHFE shows that copper stocks fell from 256,328 tons on March 21 to 225,736 tons by April 3, as downstream buyers rushed to purchase copper cathode in response to falling prices.

China’s Retaliatory Tariffs and Copper Scrap Imports

China’s planned tariffs on US copper scrap, set to take effect on April 10, will impact copper supply in the country. In 2024, China imported over 440,000 tons of copper scrap from the US, accounting for nearly 20% of its total copper scrap imports. However, market participants predict that some traders will attempt to bypass the tariffs by sourcing US-origin copper scrap from other countries.

In February, US copper scrap exports fell by 10% compared to the previous year, with China seeing the largest drop in imports. This decrease in exports can be attributed to tariff expectations, which have made it difficult for US exporters to remain competitive. The large spread between CME and LME prices has further strained export options, leaving US dealers with excess scrap volumes.

Limited Impact on Copper Concentrate and Cathode Supplies

China’s retaliatory tariffs are expected to have a minimal impact on its domestic copper concentrate and cathode supply. In 2024, China imported just 460,000 tons of copper concentrate and 1,575 tons of copper cathode from the US, representing only a small fraction of its total imports. Therefore, the retaliatory tariffs are unlikely to cause significant disruptions to these supply chains.

China’s Copper Scrap Imports Drop in September Amid Narrowing Price Spreads

Copper Scrap

China’s copper scrap imports declined by 5.4% in September, reflecting market shifts driven by narrowing price spreads between refined copper and copper scrap. According to market participants, the spread, which began at over 2,000 yuan per ton (Yn/t) at the start of August, contracted to around 1,200 yuan/t ($169/t) by the end of the month as copper prices hit a five-month low.

Market Dynamics and Buyer Behavior

The narrower price spread dampened the interest of fabricated product producers in purchasing scrap. Many Chinese copper smelters and secondary producers chose to remain on the sidelines, avoiding major scrap purchases once the spread fell below the perceived reasonable threshold of 1,400 yuan/t.

At the same time, sellers exhibited hesitancy to deliver copper scrap during August's price slump, preferring to wait for higher prices. This shift in behavior further impacted the availability and movement of scrap in September.

The Broader Impact of Rising Costs

Adding to the complexities, many refined copper producers opted to use copper scrap as a substitute for copper concentrate. This switch was driven by the significantly higher costs of copper concentrate, leading to a 16% rise in China’s copper scrap imports during the January-September period.

However, the copper concentrate market faced its own challenges, including a persistent supply crunch that resulted in a sharp 85% drop in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) over the same timeframe.

Outlook

With copper prices and market conditions remaining volatile, China’s copper trade dynamics are expected to continue adjusting as producers and buyers navigate fluctuating costs and price spreads.

China's Copper Scrap Imports Surge in 2024 Amid Tight Supply and Policy Changes

Copper Scrap

China’s copper scrap imports saw a notable 13% increase in 2024 as domestic refined copper producers turned to scrap due to a tightening copper concentrate supply. This shift helped offset the shortages in copper concentrate, which traditionally serves as the primary feedstock for refining operations. The increased demand for scrap also led to a significant month-on-month rise in December, with imports soaring by 25% compared to November.

December Surge Attributed to Price Dynamics and US-Related Imports

A key factor contributing to this December surge was the reopening of the import arbitrage in the second half of November. This shift occurred as domestic copper metal prices in China rose above those on the London Metal Exchange (LME), making imports more economically viable. Additionally, scrap buyers accelerated the clearance of US-origin copper scrap at customs to avoid potential countermeasures after the election of US President Donald Trump. This urgency, combined with strategic import decisions, led to a marked rise in imports in the final month of the year.

Government Policy Supports Copper Scrap Imports in 2025

In a bid to further boost the availability of copper scrap, China has expanded its import duty exemptions for recycled copper feedstocks. For 2025, the government broadened the scope of products under HS code 74040000 to include not only recycled brass and copper feedstocks but also recycled copper and alloy feedstocks. Import duties for these materials remain at zero, a move that further encourages the import of scrap and helps meet the growing demand for copper in China.

Copper Cathode Output Declines in 2023-24

Aurubis, Europe’s leading copper producer and recycler, reported a 4% drop in its copper cathode production for the 2023-24 fiscal year, totaling 578,000 tons. The decline was driven by a 30% reduction in output at its Hamburg facility, where operations were delayed following a maintenance shutdown. Despite the setback in Germany, the company maintained a solid performance in Bulgaria, with 229,000 tons produced at its Pirdop site.

US Copper Scrap Exports Surge by 17% in October

US Copper Scrap

US copper scrap exports witnessed a remarkable 17% growth in October 2024 compared to the previous year, driven by increases in @1 and @2 copper shipments.

Strong Year-Over-Year Growth in Exports

The United States exported nearly 26,200 metric tonnes of copper scrap in October 2024, a significant rise from approximately 22,500 tonnes during the same period in 2023. This marks the 12th consecutive month of year-over-year increases, hitting the highest monthly total since May 2024.

However, the rise in total exports was contrasted by a 4% decline in bare bright copper scrap shipments, which fell to approximately 6,700 tonnes. Notable reductions in exports to Greece and South Korea contributed to this decline.

@1 and @2 Copper Scrap Lead Export Growth

Exports of @1 copper scrap surged by an impressive 31%, reaching nearly 10,000 tonnes. China was the primary driver, with an additional 1,800 tonnes compared to last year. While exports to Germany saw a decline, China’s demand more than compensated for the dip.

Similarly, @2 copper scrap exports climbed by 21%, surpassing 9,400 tonnes. The growth was fueled by heightened deliveries to major importing nations such as China, Malaysia, and Belgium.

Copper Prices and Market Trends

The October average for CME copper futures reached $4.42 per pound, marking an 81¢ increase from October 2023 and the highest monthly average since June 2024. Meanwhile, Asian @1 copper scrap discounts widened to 19.5¢/lb under CME prices, compared to 11¢/lb under in the previous year.

The elevated exchange prices, coupled with optimism for a stronger Chinese economy, drove higher consumer costs, averaging 73¢/lb above last year. The market responded to policy signals from China’s Ministry of Finance, including potential support for the real estate sector. These measures briefly boosted copper demand expectations, although the rally was short-lived. Market participants remain hopeful for further economic stimulus to drive China closer to its 5% growth target.

SRG NuCycle Acquisition Adds Low-Copper Shred Capacity in South Carolina

SRG

SRG NuCycle acquisition will expand Southeast Recycling Group’s scrap processing network with an automotive shredder capable of producing low-copper ferrous scrap. The deal strengthens SRG’s position in the southeastern US recycling market.

SRG NuCycle acquisition includes NuCycle’s Rock Hill, South Carolina, operations, its 4,000-horsepower Danieli shredder and auto parts yard Carolina Salvage. The transaction is expected to close later this month.

SRG NuCycle acquisition is strategically important because low-copper shred is increasingly valuable to steelmakers seeking cleaner ferrous feedstock. Better scrap quality supports electric arc furnace steelmaking, improves melt efficiency and reduces contamination risk in higher-grade steel products.

SRG will also gain downstream non-ferrous recovery capability through NuCycle’s existing system. This adds value beyond ferrous scrap by improving recovery of aluminium, copper, stainless and other non-ferrous fractions.

Low-Copper Shredder Strengthens Ferrous Scrap Quality

The acquired shredder is a 4,000-horsepower 80×108-inch Danieli unit. It includes a ballistic separator designed to produce a low-copper ferrous product.

This matters because copper contamination is one of the most important quality issues in ferrous scrap. Residual copper can limit the use of scrap in flat-rolled and higher-quality steel applications.

Low-copper shred gives processors a stronger product for steel mills that need cleaner scrap feedstock. It also helps bridge the quality gap between obsolete scrap and more controlled prime scrap streams.

SRG had previously planned to install a shredder at one of its existing sites. Instead, it chose to acquire an operating shredder platform, which can shorten the path to capacity and customer access.

The addition of Carolina Salvage also improves feedstock control. Auto parts yards can support shredder supply by bringing end-of-life vehicles and related material into the processing chain.

Consolidation Expands SRG’s Southeast Scrap Platform

SRG is also expanding through a separate merger with Morris Scrap Metal of Kings Mountain, North Carolina. Morris Scrap will join SRG as a new partner.

Once the NuCycle and Morris Scrap deals close, SRG will operate seven locations. The combined platform will have capacity of 300,000 gross tons per year of ferrous scrap and 150mn lb per year of non-ferrous scrap.

This scale gives SRG a stronger regional presence in the Carolinas and the broader southeastern US. It also improves collection density, logistics efficiency and customer coverage.

The deals continue SRG’s consolidation strategy after the company was formed last year from the merger of Carolina Metals Group and Spartan Recycling Group.

US scrap markets are becoming more competitive as steelmakers, aluminium producers and recyclers seek better feedstock quality and more reliable supply. Regional processors with shredding, sorting and non-ferrous recovery capacity are better positioned to serve that demand.

SRG’s expansion therefore reflects a wider industrial trend. Scrap recycling is moving from simple volume handling toward quality-controlled feedstock production for steel, aluminium and other metals supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

SRG’s NuCycle deal shows that scrap processing value is shifting toward quality, not just tonnage. Low-copper shred and better non-ferrous recovery will matter more as US mills demand cleaner, more traceable recycled feedstock.

Chinalco Boosts Copper Anode Capacity Amid Rising Scrap Use

Chinalco

Major Upgrade at Dianzhong Smelter Targets Increased Output and Efficiency

China’s Chinalco has commenced operations of a new copper anode furnace at its Dianzhong smelter in Chuxiong, Yunnan province. This initiative is part of a 515 million yuan ($70.2 million) upgrade project. The upgrade aims to elevate the smelter’s copper anode production from 191,700 tonnes per year to 249,800 tonnes per year. Furthermore, a 210,000 tonnes per year copper cathode refining facility is set to launch in May.

Increased Scrap Integration

The Dianzhong smelter, previously reliant on copper concentrate, now incorporates a copper scrap feeding facility. This addition aligns with the growing trend of utilizing secondary copper. In 2023, over 31% of China's refined copper output originated from copper scrap, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. The rising cost of copper concentrate has driven many producers to favor copper scrap. This shift led to a 14% year-on-year increase in China's copper scrap imports, reaching 2.03 million tonnes from January to November.

Market Implications

This expansion by Chinalco reflects the broader industry trend of adapting to feedstock cost fluctuations and increasing reliance on recycled materials. The upgrade will strengthen Chinalco's copper production capabilities and contribute to the supply of copper cathode. The increased usage of copper scrap also highlights the growing importance of the circular economy within the metals industry.

Fuye secondary copper smelter to add 180kt/yr capacity in Jiangxi

Fuye

Fuye secondary copper smelter plans will lift China’s recycled copper capacity. The Fuye secondary copper smelter will produce refined copper using scrap and residues. As a result, the Fuye secondary copper smelter strengthens supply amid concentrate tightness.

Capacity and feedstocks

Fuye will build a 180,000 t/yr secondary smelter in Shangrao, Jiangxi. The plant will process copper scrap, ingot, and electrolytic residues. The company did not disclose construction or launch dates. Fuye already runs three Chinese smelters totaling 800,000 t/yr.

Fuye’s 620,000 t/yr Heding smelter is co-owned with Jiangxi Copper. It also owns the Hefeng and Heli secondary smelters with 190,000 t/yr. Therefore, the new project deepens a recycling-focused footprint.

Scrap dynamics and market context

Copper scrap is filling a structural gap in concentrates. Scrap supplied nearly 20pc of global refined output in 2024, per ICSG. China’s copper scrap imports held near 1.15mn t in first-half 2025. Trade frictions had limited impact on volumes.

Pricing signals support steady scrap inflows. Metalnomist shows bare bright import cash spreads at 98.5–99pc of LME. #1 scrap held at 97.3–98.2pc and #2 at 94.5–95.5pc. Such levels keep scrap competitive versus cathode.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Fuye’s move underscores China’s push to derisk concentrate exposure with recycling. Location in Jiangxi aligns feedstock pools, established logistics, and OEM demand. Watch permitting cadence and long-term scrap contracts to gauge ramp speed.

US Copper Scrap Exports Continue to Climb in June, Despite Mixed Performance Across Categories

U.S. copper scrap exports sustained their upward momentum in June, marking an 8 percent increase compared to the same period last year. This growth, driven by heightened shipments of bare bright and #2 copper, managed to offset a decline in #1 copper exports.

In total, copper scrap exports for June reached 22,573 metric tonnes, up from 20,850 metric tonnes in June 2023. This marks the eighth consecutive month of year-over-year growth in the sector. Over the first half of 2024, U.S. copper scrap exports totaled 156,756 metric tonnes, reflecting a 22 percent increase compared to the first half of the previous year.

The volume of bare bright scrap exports, although rising 3 percent from the previous year to 5,637 metric tonnes, represented the lowest monthly total in the past year due to a significant 13 percent drop in shipments to China. In contrast, exports of #1 copper scrap fell sharply by 17 percent to 7,033 metric tonnes, with four Asian countries reducing their import volumes.

Meanwhile, #2 copper scrap exports saw a robust 44 percent surge to 9,903 metric tonnes, largely driven by increased demand from China and Malaysia.

On the pricing front, Comex copper for June averaged $4.50 per pound, an increase of 70 cents per pound from June 2023. However, this was the lowest monthly average since April, as the U.S. dollar gained strength during the month. As a result, consumers faced an average year-over-year cost increase of 69 cents per pound.

Despite the higher prices, market activity was slower than in May, with sellers indicating that while buyers could be found, the terms were increasingly favorable to the buyers. Hopes that China would introduce stimulus measures in July to bolster its property market and boost demand for copper ultimately proved unfounded, as the country refrained from injecting funds into its struggling economy.

Sofia Med Copper Fabricator Secures EBRD Loan to Raise Recycled Metal Use

Sofia Med

Sofia Med copper fabricator has secured a €20 million loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to increase recycled metal use and reduce water waste at its Bulgarian operations. The financing supports Europe’s wider effort to strengthen domestic copper processing and improve resource efficiency.

The loan is also notable because it is the first EBRD financing in Bulgaria that allows the borrower to pay a lower interest rate if it meets green targets. These targets are linked to recycling and water efficiency, making the facility’s environmental performance part of its financing cost.

Sofia Med copper fabricator is owned by Greek metals group Viohalco and operates downstream rolling and extrusion lines. The company processes refined copper into tubes, sheets and profiles for industrial users.

Recycled Copper Becomes Strategic for European Fabricators

European copper fabricators are increasingly important because they sit close to final industrial demand. They convert refined copper and scrap into semi-finished products used in construction, power equipment, manufacturing, heating systems and infrastructure.

Sofia Med can raise the share of secondary metal in its feedstock if suitable scrap is available. This matters because recycled copper can reduce emissions, lower dependence on primary metal and support Europe’s circular economy goals.

However, Europe still exports large volumes of copper scrap. This limits local availability for refiners and fabricators, creating a policy challenge as Brussels tries to retain more strategic raw materials inside the region.

Brussels Pushes to Keep Copper Scrap in Europe

The loan comes as Brussels considers tighter export rules under its RESourceEU plan. The aim is to protect local supply of recyclable materials and support European processing capacity.

The EBRD and European Investment Bank are also backing projects across the copper value chain. Aurubis secured a €200 million EIB loan last September to expand its Pirdop tankhouse, showing that European institutions are targeting both refining and downstream fabrication.

The €20 million loan for Sofia Med is still only a limited part of the upgrades the site may need. Its impact will depend on how much copper scrap the company can secure and how quickly it can reduce water waste.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sofia Med’s loan shows that recycled copper is becoming part of Europe’s industrial security agenda. The next challenge is not only financing upgrades, but keeping enough copper scrap inside Europe to feed refiners and fabricators.

China Copper Scrap Cash Spreads Widen Amid Price Fluctuations

China Copper Scrap

Cash spreads for Chinese copper scrap imports have increased from last week due to lower copper prices on major exchanges.  Scrap sellers maintained firm offers as LME copper prices fell to a four-month low of $8,757/tonne on December 31st.

Import Arbitrage Loss and Tariff Exemptions

China's copper scrap import arbitrage loss widened to -1,000 yuan/tonne ($137/tonne) this week, compared to a small profit in late December. This widening loss is attributed to lower domestic spot copper metal prices relative to LME prices, resulting in limited trading activity.  Despite this, China will expand its import duty exemptions on more recycled copper feedstocks in 2025. The government has broadened the products included under HS code 74040000 to "recycled copper and alloy feedstock" for 2025, from "recycled brass copper feedstock and recycled copper feedstock" in 2024. The import duty for this HS code remains at zero for both years.  However, market participants remain cautious about importing copper scrap from the US, even with the expanded tariff exemptions in 2025.

Market Outlook and Price Rebound

LME three-month copper prices have since rebounded, rising from a close of $8,781.50/tonne on December 31st to a close of $8,980/tonne on January 7th.  Positive investor sentiment has been fueled by the People's Bank of China announcement of increased financial support for technology innovation and consumption, along with measures to enhance liquidity, safeguard capital markets, and potential reductions in interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio for banks.

ICSG Copper Surplus Forecast Challenges Bullish Near-Term Market Narrative

Copper

ICSG copper surplus forecast has shifted the refined copper market outlook from deficit to surplus, challenging the more bullish tone around copper prices and strategic demand. The International Copper Study Group now expects a refined copper surplus of 96,000t in 2026 and 377,000t in 2027.

The revision marks a major change from ICSG’s October outlook, which had projected a 150,000t deficit for 2026. The new ICSG copper surplus forecast reflects weaker-than-expected demand growth and stronger secondary refined copper output.

The refined copper market is still exposed to mine disruption, lower ore grades and geopolitical risk. However, the latest forecast suggests that scrap-based production and slower consumption can offset some of the tightness from constrained mine supply.

ICSG expects global adjusted mine production to reach 23.559mn t in 2026 and 24.103mn t in 2027. Adjusted refined production is forecast at 28.76mn t in 2026 and 29.613mn t in 2027, while refined usage is expected at 28.664mn t and 29.236mn t.

Secondary Output and Slower Demand Ease Refined Copper Tightness

The biggest change in the ICSG copper surplus forecast comes from the refined side of the market. Stronger secondary output is expected to help balance constrained primary supply.

Refined copper production is forecast to grow by only 0.4% in 2026 before rising by 3% in 2027. Constrained concentrate availability will limit primary electrolytic growth this year, but solvent extraction-electrowinning and scrap-based output should provide support.

For 2027, ICSG expects primary refined copper production to rise by 2.3%, while secondary refined production increases by 5.7%. This gives scrap a larger role in balancing the market.

This matters because copper supply discussions often focus heavily on mines. But refined copper availability also depends on scrap collection, processing economics, smelter operations, SX-EW output and regional refined production.

Demand growth has also been revised lower. ICSG now expects refined usage to increase by 1.6% in 2026, down from its previous 2.1% forecast.

The downgrade reflects uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and disrupted trade flows. Chinese refined copper usage is expected to rise by 1.9% in 2026, while demand outside China grows by 1.3%.

Global refined usage is forecast to rise by 2% in 2027. Asia will remain the main growth engine, while EU and Japanese consumption are expected to stay subdued.

Asia outside Asean and CIS states will remain by far the largest refined copper-consuming region. Usage is projected at 20.469mn t in 2026 and 20.907mn t in 2027.

Mine Supply Risks Still Support Copper’s Strategic Value

ICSG’s near-term surplus forecast does not remove copper’s longer-term supply risk. The group revised down its 2026 mine production growth forecast to 1.6% from 2.3%, citing weaker growth in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile and Indonesia.

Output at Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa in the DRC remains constrained after major incidents in 2025. These disruptions show how quickly copper mine supply can tighten when large assets underperform.

Mine production growth is expected to recover to 2.3% in 2027. ICSG expects support from Chile, Zambia, Indonesia and the DRC, along with ramp-ups at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, Malmyz in Russia, Julong in China and Almalyk in Uzbekistan.

Still, mine supply remains structurally difficult. Declining ore grades, slow permitting, higher capital intensity and longer project timelines continue to limit how quickly the industry can respond to higher prices.

Copper demand also retains strong strategic drivers. Energy transition investment, grid expansion, urbanisation, digitalisation, data centres and new semi-finished product capacity should continue to support long-term consumption.

This creates a split market narrative. On paper, refined copper may move into surplus in 2026 and 2027. Strategically, copper remains central to electrification, artificial intelligence infrastructure, manufacturing and industrial policy.

ICSG also warned that actual balances could diverge from forecasts. Its Chinese apparent demand calculation excludes changes in unreported stocks, including State Reserve Bureau, producer, consumer, trader and bonded inventories.

That caveat is important. Copper inventories can move through hidden channels, making the refined market appear looser or tighter than reported balances suggest.

The ICSG copper surplus forecast therefore does not end the bullish long-term copper case. It does, however, caution against assuming immediate refined scarcity when secondary supply is rising and demand outside China remains soft.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The ICSG copper surplus forecast shows that copper’s strategic story and near-term balance sheet can move in different directions. Data centres, grids and electrification support the long-term thesis, but scrap growth and weaker demand may keep the refined market looser than bullish headlines suggest.

Aurubis Copper Outlook Rises as Sulphuric Acid Offsets Weak TC/RCs

Aurubis

Aurubis copper outlook has improved as stronger sulphuric acid revenues, higher recycling charges and resilient European copper product demand offset weak concentrate treatment and refining charges. Europe’s largest copper producer and recycler raised its full-year operating earnings before tax guidance to €425mn-525mn.

Aurubis copper outlook had previously stood at €375mn-475mn. The upgrade reflects a stronger market environment, especially for sulphuric acid, which is now expected to make a notably higher earnings contribution than last year.

Aurubis copper outlook is important because it shows how copper smelter economics are no longer driven only by concentrate treatment charges. By-product acid revenue, recycling margins and downstream copper product demand are becoming increasingly important earnings buffers.

The company’s operating EBT rose by 22% year on year to €121mn in January-March, while operating Ebitda increased by 19% to €187mn.

Acid Revenue Helps Cushion Concentrate Market Pressure

Sulphuric acid has become a key earnings support for Aurubis. Restricted sea traffic in the Middle East has tightened global sulphur supply since March, reducing acid availability and lifting spot prices.

Aurubis is not fully exposed to spot acid price movements because of its term contract structure. However, higher sulphuric acid revenues are still expected to contribute more strongly to earnings this fiscal year.

The company produced 585,000t of sulphuric acid in the second quarter, up 6% from a year earlier. First-half output rose by 5% to 1.17mn t, supported by higher concentrate throughput at its primary smelters.

This is strategically important for copper smelters. Weak TC/RCs normally pressure margins, but acid revenue can partly offset that weakness when acid markets tighten.

Aurubis processed 620,000t of copper concentrate in the second quarter, up 4% on the year. First-half concentrate throughput rose by 4% to 1.25mn t.

The company said announced utilisation adjustments, especially in China, are unlikely to fully offset this year’s expected concentrate deficit. This confirms that the copper concentrate market remains structurally tight.

Aurubis remains confident in concentrate supply because of long-term contracts and supplier diversification. The group said it is already supplied with concentrates well into the fourth quarter of its 2025-26 fiscal year.

Copper cathode output from the custom smelting and products segment was broadly stable at 150,000t in the second quarter. First-half cathode output was unchanged at 301,000t.

Recycling and Wire Rod Demand Strengthen Earnings Base

Aurubis’ downstream copper demand showed a clear split across European end markets. Wire rod demand remained strong, while shapes demand weakened because of slower automotive activity.

Wire rod output rose by 8% year on year to 241,000t in the second quarter. First-half wire rod production increased by 4% to 442,000t, supported by demand from energy infrastructure.

The company expects wire rod demand to grow this fiscal year, especially from infrastructure, renewable energy and data-centre expansion. This highlights copper’s role in electrification, grid build-out and digital infrastructure.

However, Aurubis expects overall sales to be slightly below last year’s level. High copper prices, rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on customer behaviour.

Shapes output fell by 13% year on year to 39,000t in the second quarter and by 14% to 73,000t in the first half. This reflects weaker automotive demand, showing that not all copper-consuming sectors are recovering at the same pace.

Recycling conditions improved. The recycling segment’s Ebitda rose by 56% year on year to €63mn in the second quarter, while EBT increased to €38mn from €23mn.

Higher copper prices encouraged dealers to release scrap inventories, improving European scrap and blister copper availability. This lifted refining charges above both the previous quarter and the same period last year.

Aurubis processed 246,000t of copper scrap and blister copper in the first half, broadly in line with 249,000t a year earlier. Recycling segment cathode output rose by 5% year on year to 133,000t in the second quarter and by 4% to 266,000t in the first half.

The company expects recycling to make a stronger earnings contribution this fiscal year. But scrap availability will remain volatile because collection activity and dealer behaviour are closely tied to copper prices.

Aurubis now expects full-year operating Ebitda of €700mn-800mn. It expects operating EBT of €370mn-430mn from custom smelting and products and €115mn-175mn from multi-metal recycling.

A maintenance shutdown at Lunen in May-June is expected to reduce operating EBT by €10mn. Even with that impact, the upgraded guidance shows that Aurubis is benefiting from a more diversified earnings base across acid, recycling and copper products.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aurubis’ upgraded guidance shows that copper smelters with acid, recycling and downstream product exposure are better positioned than pure concentrate processors. The strategic lesson is clear: in a world of weak TC/RCs, the strongest copper players will be those that control more value across by-products, scrap and end-use demand.

Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan strengthens Europe’s critical copper supply

Aurubis

The Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan marks a major step in Europe’s critical raw materials strategy. The €200mn investment loan from the European Investment Bank (EIB) will fund capacity growth at Aurubis sites in Bulgaria and Germany. As a result, the Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan directly targets higher refined copper output and more recycled copper flows into EU industry.

The Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan is also the first EIB metals-sector financing under the bank’s new raw materials strategy. In March, the EIB committed to lend around €2bn a year to critical raw materials projects. These include extraction, processing, recycling and substitution technologies across the energy transition value chain. Therefore, the Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan serves as an early flagship for this new mandate.

EIB backs primary and secondary copper growth at Pirdop and Hamburg

Aurubis will use the EIB loan to expand both primary and secondary copper capacity. At Pirdop in Bulgaria, the company is investing €120mn to enlarge its tank-house. This expansion will lift refined copper cathode capacity by 50pc to 340,000 t/yr. Commissioning is planned for fiscal year 2025-26, adding meaningful volumes to Europe’s copper pool.

At the same time, Aurubis will invest €190mn in its Hamburg smelter and refinery complex. The project will enable an extra 30,000 t/yr of recycled copper scrap processing, alongside more internal smelting intermediates. Therefore, the Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan supports both mined copper and circular copper streams. This dual focus directly aligns with EU priorities on recycling, resource efficiency and lower embedded emissions.

These expansions will further cement Aurubis’ position as Europe’s largest copper producer. Increased output from Pirdop and Hamburg should improve regional security of supply. That security is critical as copper demand rises for grid upgrades, renewables, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence and data centre infrastructure.

Copper market vulnerability drives EU support for Aurubis

Recent market dynamics underline why the Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan matters for Europe. Earlier this year, a huge influx of global copper flowed into the US. End-users and traders stockpiled metal ahead of expected US copper import tariffs that never materialised. However, the diversion exposed how quickly European copper availability can tighten when trade flows shift.

Europe’s vulnerability stems from its heavy dependence on imported copper concentrates and refined metal. Any tariff scare, logistics disruption or geopolitical shock can pull units away from the Atlantic basin. Therefore, building more regional smelting, refining and recycling capacity has become a strategic priority. The Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan is a concrete step toward that goal.

By boosting both primary cathode output and recycled copper processing, Aurubis supports a more resilient supply base. Meanwhile, EIB-backed capital lowers financing costs and signals strong policy alignment. Over time, this combination could help stabilise European copper premia and reduce exposure to external shocks.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aurubis’ deal with the EIB shows how copper is moving to the centre of Europe’s industrial and energy transition policy. The mix of primary capacity growth and scrap-based expansion reflects a realistic view of future copper constraints. Market participants should watch how quickly the new tank-house and Hamburg upgrades translate into additional cathode and scrap-processing volumes, especially if trade tensions divert metal again.

China's Copper Scrap Imports Surge in July Amid Narrowed Arbitrage Losses

China's copper scrap imports rose sharply in July, increasing by 14.8% from the previous month, driven by a reduction in import arbitrage losses that had previously discouraged purchases. The narrowing of the arbitrage loss, which fell to between -Yn1,000 and -Yn1,500 per tonne in June from nearly -Yn6,000 per tonne in May, played a key role in this surge.

In May, the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw three-month copper prices reach a record high of $11,104.50 per tonne, making copper concentrate an increasingly expensive feedstock for Chinese producers. In response to the rising costs, many refined copper producers in China turned to copper scrap as an alternative, leading to a 20% increase in copper scrap imports during the first half of the year.

The supply crunch for copper concentrate significantly impacted the market, pushing treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) down by 88% from January to June. The shift towards copper scrap was further accelerated by the cancellation of a tax rebate on 1 August, prompting most secondary copper processors to purchase scrap at the full tax rate. This trend is expected to continue into August, supported by the narrower import arbitrage losses in July.

UK recycler CF Booth enters administration as copper prices squeeze working capital

CF Booth

UK recycler CF Booth enters administration after financial pressure intensified across copper inventory financing and compliance costs. UK recycler CF Booth enters administration as higher copper prices raised the cash tied up in scrap and finished stock. Therefore, the company could not secure a solvent outcome despite exploring sale and reinvestment options.

UK recycler CF Booth enters administration with operations halted at its main Rotherham facility. Administrators retained a reduced team to manage statutory requirements. Meanwhile, the closure removed an established processing outlet for mixed and lower-quality copper scrap in the UK market.

Why high copper prices can hurt recyclers as much as they help

High copper prices can strain recyclers through working capital, not just margin. Scrap yards must fund more expensive inbound units before selling processed material. As a result, liquidity tightens quickly when lenders, insurers, or counterparties become cautious.

Energy costs and compliance costs can compound that pressure in Europe. Environmental obligations, VAT complexity, and health and safety enforcement raise fixed costs. However, higher costs rarely pass through cleanly when downstream buyers resist payables.

What CF Booth’s shutdown could mean for European copper scrap flows

CF Booth’s absence may tighten supply channels for lower-grade copper scrap over time. Traders expect the impact to show first in mixed grades and domestic availability. Therefore, regional scrap blending and sorting networks may need to reroute volumes to alternative processors.

Pricing has not reacted sharply yet because demand remains soft and supply looks ample after year-end destocking. However, payables could firm later in the quarter if demand improves and processing capacity stays offline. Meanwhile, the situation highlights broader stress for mid-sized recyclers exposed to price volatility and rising operating costs.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This case shows how copper rallies can break recyclers through financing, not fundamentals. However, the market impact depends on whether new owners restart capacity quickly. Operators with strong credit lines and low-cost power will keep gaining share.

Hailiang Saudi Copper JV Targets Middle East Processing Growth

Rawas

Hailiang Saudi copper JV plans will give Chinese copper products producer Zhejiang Hailiang a new manufacturing platform in Saudi Arabia. The company plans to form a joint venture with Saudi investment firm Rawas to build a $566mn copper processing plant at the port of Dammam.

The Hailiang Saudi copper JV is planned with 150,000 t/yr of copper processing capacity. The plant will include copper pipes, copper bars, recycled copper and copper foil, giving the project a broad downstream product mix.

The agreement gives Hailiang a 51% stake in the venture, while Rawas will hold 49%. The project still requires approval from the Saudi government and Hailiang’s shareholders before the partners finalise the investment.

The Hailiang Saudi copper JV reflects a wider shift in the copper products industry. Chinese processors are increasingly looking overseas to secure market access, reduce trade exposure and position closer to growth regions in the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

Dammam Plant Adds Copper Foil and Recycling Capacity

The planned Dammam plant will include 30,000 t/yr of copper pipe capacity and 20,000 t/yr of copper bar capacity. These products support construction, cooling systems, power infrastructure, industrial equipment and manufacturing supply chains.

The project also includes 50,000 t/yr of recycled copper capacity. This is strategically important because copper scrap is becoming a more valuable feedstock as concentrate markets tighten and buyers seek lower-carbon copper units.

The planned 50,000 t/yr of copper foil capacity adds a higher-value growth angle. Copper foil is used in batteries, electronics, printed circuit boards and advanced electrical applications. That gives the project relevance beyond traditional copper tube and bar markets.

The product mix suggests Hailiang is not only targeting commodity copper processing. It is building a downstream platform that can serve infrastructure, energy, electronics and battery-related demand from one regional base.

Dammam also offers logistical value. A port location can support raw material imports, finished product exports and access to Gulf, African and European customers. This could help Hailiang build a wider regional distribution network.

Saudi Arabia Gains Value-Added Copper Manufacturing Role

Hailiang said it aims to capitalise on Saudi Arabia’s copper ore resources, energy cost advantages and policy environment. These factors align with Saudi Arabia’s wider ambition to expand industrial manufacturing and mineral value chains.

For Saudi Arabia, the project could support a shift from resource availability toward value-added processing. Copper products are increasingly important for grids, buildings, cooling systems, EV infrastructure, renewable energy and industrial electrification.

The inclusion of recycled copper also fits the growing importance of circular metal supply. If Saudi Arabia can combine scrap collection, energy advantages and downstream manufacturing, it could strengthen its role in regional copper supply chains.

However, the project faces uncertainty. Hailiang said it is closely monitoring Middle East developments and their potential impact on site selection, construction progress, personnel safety and future operations.

The construction timeline has not yet been fixed. The partners will determine the schedule according to market conditions after the joint-venture agreement receives the required approvals.

This cautious approach is important. Middle East industrial projects can offer strong energy and logistics advantages, but geopolitical risk, financing timing, permitting and supply-chain security can still affect execution.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hailiang’s Saudi venture shows how Chinese copper processors are internationalising downstream capacity, not only exporting products. The project’s real value lies in combining copper foil, recycling and regional market access inside Saudi Arabia’s industrial diversification strategy.

Mitsubishi Materials Onahama Copper Plant Shutdown Signals Pressure on Japanese Smelting

Mitsubishi Materials

Mitsubishi Materials Onahama copper plant operations will be suspended by the end of March 2027 after rising costs, tougher concentrate terms, and overseas competition weakened profitability. The Japanese metals group decided on 25 March to close the site’s copper smelting and refining operations as part of a broader structural reform.

The Mitsubishi Materials Onahama copper plant had already faced cost-cutting measures, including reduced copper concentrate processing and the suspension of certain processes. However, these steps failed to restore earnings as copper concentrate purchase terms deteriorated sharply.

The decision highlights the growing pressure on traditional copper smelters. When treatment and refining charges fall below zero, smelters effectively pay miners or traders to process concentrate, reversing the normal economics of the business.

Negative Treatment Charges Reshape Copper Smelting Economics

Copper concentrate treatment charges and refining charges have collapsed since January 2025, falling below $0/t and $0/lb on a cif China basis. The latest assessments stood at -$67/t and -$6.7/lb on 20 March, showing how tight concentrate supply and intense smelter competition have distorted processing margins.

This environment has become especially difficult for Japanese smelters, which face high operating costs and competition from larger overseas facilities. For Mitsubishi Materials, the Onahama operation could no longer secure profitability under these market conditions.

MMC expects to book an impairment loss of ¥21 billion, or about $132.5 million, in its January-March quarterly report. Most of that loss will be linked to fixed assets at the Onahama smelter and refinery.

E-Scrap and Secondary Smelting Become MMC’s Strategic Direction

Mitsubishi Materials Onahama copper plant closure is part of MMC’s policy of creating future growth through resource circulation. The company aims to expand secondary smelting operations that use electronic scrap and copper scrap as raw materials.

This shift reflects a broader industry trend. Copper producers are increasingly looking at recycled feedstock to reduce exposure to volatile concentrate markets, improve sustainability, and secure alternative metal units.

Not all Onahama operations will close. The electrolytic plant and facilities not directly tied to copper concentrate processing, including the precious group metals plant, will continue operating beyond the smelting and refining shutdown.

The Metalnomist Commentary

MMC’s Onahama decision shows that copper smelting capacity is being reshaped by concentrate scarcity and recycling economics. Japan’s challenge is not only maintaining copper supply, but repositioning its metallurgical base toward scrap, e-scrap, and higher-value recovery.