Global Refined Copper Market in Surplus Amid Production Growth

Copper

Copper production outpaces demand in early 2025

The global refined copper market recorded a surplus in January and February 2025, as production exceeded consumption, according to preliminary data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). The refined copper surplus reached 150,000 metric tonnes (t) during the period, driven by project ramp-ups and growing output from key producing regions.

Global refined copper output totaled 4.59mn t in the first two months, while consumption stood at 4.44mn t. This marks a slight decline from the 157,000t surplus seen in the same period last year. Still, the figures highlight a persistent oversupply trend in the refined copper market.

Regional trends in refined copper production and consumption

Global copper mine production rose by 1.7pc year-on-year to 3.72mn t. Growth was supported by increased production at Peru’s Las Bambas, Quellaveco, and Toromocho mines, and expansion at the Kamoa mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). However, mine output declined in Asia (-1.5pc), North America (-2.5pc), and Chile (-4pc).

Refined copper output rose 0.9pc to 4.59mn t. Of this, 3.81mn t came from primary sources and 777,000t from secondary scrap production. China and the DRC contributed significantly, with 2pc year-on-year growth, and Asia excluding China saw a 6pc increase due to India's Adani refinery ramp-up. Chile, however, experienced an 18pc fall in refined output.

On the demand side, global refined copper usage grew by 1.1pc to 4.44mn t. Chinese apparent demand rose by 1.6pc, while ex-China demand grew just 0.5pc, with EU, Japanese, and US demand remaining subdued. February alone showed a monthly surplus of 61,000t, with 2.2mn t produced and 2.1mn t consumed.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The copper market surplus in early 2025 reflects uneven regional dynamics, where supply growth outpaces sluggish global demand. While China continues to lead both output and consumption, weakening demand in the US, EU, and Japan suggests potential headwinds. Market participants should closely monitor output cuts or policy-driven demand stimuli to rebalance the market.