LME Copper Cathode Supply Could Rise as Chinese Smelters Push EQ Listings

Chinese Copper

LME copper cathode supply could increase as more Chinese smelters seek to register equivalent quality cathodes on the London Metal Exchange. The move reflects a push to capture higher premiums for material that is close to LME-registered brands in quality.

The near-term impact on LME copper cathode supply is likely to be limited. However, more registrations could gradually widen deliverable copper availability and give buyers more alternatives to traditional registered cathode brands.

Chinese smelters are targeting the premium gap between EQ cathode and fully registered material. African-origin registered copper usually earns a higher premium than EQ cathode, but it still trades below Chilean registered brands because many African cathodes are solvent-extraction and electrowinning products with slightly higher impurity levels.

DRC Cathode Listings Expand China-Linked LME Supply

The London Metal Exchange recently approved China Nonferrous Mining’s SMD copper cathode brand for listing. The brand is produced at the Deziwa project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has copper cathode capacity of 80,000 t/yr.

The Deziwa project is jointly owned by CNMC and the DRC’s state-owned mining company. It hosts 4.6mn t of copper metal resources and 420,000t of cobalt metal resources, giving it strategic value across both copper and battery metal supply chains.

CNMC’s production profile also shows a shift toward more refined copper output. The group produced 130,232t of copper cathode in 2025, up 3% from a year earlier, while copper blister output fell by 33% to 192,266t.

The LME has also approved CMOC’s TFM 1 copper cathode brand for listing. That brand is produced at Tenke Fungurume in the DRC, reinforcing the country’s growing role in exchange-deliverable copper supply.

Premium Strategy Could Reshape Refined Copper Trade Flows

LME copper cathode supply strategy is becoming more important as Chinese-linked producers look to improve market access and price realisation. Listing cathode brands can improve buyer acceptance, increase liquidity and narrow discounts against established registered brands.

The DRC is already China’s largest source of copper cathode imports. China imported 1.44mn t of copper cathode from the DRC in 2025, equal to 37.6% of total imports.

More LME-approved DRC brands could change how buyers view African cathode. If quality, documentation and deliverability improve, some buyers may become less dependent on higher-premium registered material from other origins.

Still, the immediate effect should remain modest. LME registration does not automatically mean large volumes will flow onto warrant, but it does increase optionality for producers, traders and consumers in a market where brand status affects pricing power.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Chinese EQ cathode push shows that copper competition is moving into brand approval, deliverability and premium capture. The bigger implication is that DRC copper is becoming not only a Chinese import source, but a growing part of the LME-recognised refined copper system.

CMOC Copper Output Rose in 2025 on Stronger DRC Production

Copper Wire

CMOC copper output increased in 2025 as the Chinese diversified metals producer lifted production from its copper-cobalt operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The company produced 741,100t of copper during the year, up 14% from 2024.

The increase was driven by higher output from both the Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine and the Kisanfu copper-cobalt mine. These assets remain central to CMOC’s copper growth strategy and to China’s access to African copper cathode supply.

CMOC copper output is expected to rise again in 2026, with the company targeting production of 760,000-820,000t. CMOC also plans to expand copper production at Kisanfu by another 100,000 t/yr in 2027.

DRC Assets Strengthen CMOC’s Copper Growth Platform

CMOC’s production growth reinforces the strategic importance of the DRC in global copper supply. The country has become one of the most important sources of copper cathode for China, supported by large-scale mining, solvent extraction and electrowinning capacity.

Tenke Fungurume remains a key asset in this system. The mine has copper cathode capacity of 270,000 t/yr, and its TFM-1 copper cathode brand was approved by the London Metal Exchange for listing on 27 March.

The LME approval strengthens the marketability of CMOC’s DRC-produced copper. Exchange-listed status can improve brand recognition, liquidity and acceptance among global buyers, especially in refined copper markets where cathode quality and deliverability matter.

China’s Copper Supply Chain Leans Heavily on DRC Cathode

The DRC remained China’s largest source of copper cathode imports in 2025. China imported 1.44mn t of copper cathode from the country, accounting for 37.6% of total imports.

This trade flow highlights the depth of China’s dependence on DRC copper supply. As domestic demand from grids, manufacturing, electric vehicles and energy infrastructure continues, stable access to DRC cathode remains strategically important.

CMOC copper output growth also has wider market implications. Additional production from Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu can help offset disruptions in other copper regions, but it also increases the role of African supply in balancing global refined copper markets.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CMOC’s 2025 copper growth shows how the DRC has become a core pillar of China’s refined copper security. The next strategic question is whether rising African cathode supply can remain reliable amid infrastructure, policy and geopolitical risks.

Sulfur Supply Disruptions Threaten Copper Cathode Production

Copper Cathode

Sulfur supply disruptions are emerging as a serious risk for copper cathode production as the US-Israeli-Iran war disrupts shipping and tightens global sulfur availability. Copper producers rely on sulfuric acid to leach, dissolve, and refine copper into high-purity cathode.

The Middle East supplies roughly one-quarter of global sulfur output, while nearly half of sulfur shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz. A de facto closure of the route has delayed deliveries and raised concern across copper supply chains.

Sulfur supply disruptions matter because sulfur is the key feedstock for sulfuric acid. Without stable acid supply, copper producers face higher costs, slower processing, lower cathode output, and possible bottlenecks between mining and refining.

African Copper Producers Face the Highest Sulfuric Acid Risk

African copper producers face the greatest exposure because the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia depend heavily on imported sulfuric acid. Much of that supply moves through Middle East-linked shipping routes, making both countries vulnerable to prolonged logistics disruption.

Sulfuric acid plays a central role in electrowinning, where producers leach copper from lower-grade ore to create copper sulfate solution. Electrolysis then deposits copper onto cathode plates.

Sulfuric acid also supports electrorefining, where impure copper anodes dissolve in a sulfuric acid and copper sulfate solution. The process leaves impurities behind and plates 99.9% pure copper onto cathode starter sheets.

If acid supply remains tight, DRC and Zambian producers could face lower cathode output and higher operating costs. Ore stockpiling may also rise if refining capacity cannot keep pace with mined material.

Regional Exposure Could Reshape Refined Copper Premiums

China faces a second tier of exposure because its large smelting and leaching base requires substantial sulfuric acid supply. Chinese smelters generate sulfuric acid as a byproduct, which offers some short-term protection, but lower sulfur imports could still raise domestic acid prices and pressure leaching operations.

Chile and Peru appear more insulated because their copper industries rely more heavily on sulfide ore smelting, which produces sulfuric acid internally. Chile still has exposure through leaching operations, but both countries carry less direct risk than African cathode producers.

Sulfur supply disruptions could therefore reshape regional copper premiums if shortages persist. Refined cathode supply may tighten, production costs may rise, and consumers could increase their use of higher-grade copper scrap where substitution is technically feasible.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Sulfur is often treated as a secondary input, but this disruption shows its strategic role in copper refining. The copper market may focus on mine output, yet sulfuric acid availability can decide how much copper actually reaches cathode form.

Gunnison Copper first cathode production boosts US copper supply ambitions

Gunnison Copper

Gunnison Copper first cathode production marks a key milestone for US domestic copper supply. The company produced its first copper cathode at the Johnson Camp Mine in Arizona in late August, ahead of schedule. As a result, the Gunnison Copper first cathode production strengthens US efforts to secure critical minerals for energy transition.

Early ramp-up at Johnson Camp Mine underpins new US copper source

Gunnison Copper first cathode production follows the successful start of solvent extraction and electrowinning operations. The company began running its SX plant and EW circuit in August, using run-of-mine ore from the Arizona site. Therefore, the project now moves from development into early ramp-up, which often proves pivotal for leaching projects.

The company expects to produce 25mn lbs per year of copper cathode, equal to about 11,300 tonnes. This scale does not rival major Chilean or Peruvian mines, yet it still matters for US niche supply. Meanwhile, the focus on finished cathode production rather than concentrates aligns with growing demand from North American smelters and fabricators.

Funding support highlights the broader strategic value of this new copper stream. The Johnson Camp Mine received backing from Nuton, a Rio Tinto venture focused on innovative copper technologies. In addition, the project secured $13.9mn in US Department of Energy tax credits in January to support domestic copper production.

Strategic context for US energy transition and critical minerals policy

The Gunnison Copper first cathode production arrives as policymakers push for more resilient US copper supply chains. Copper demand continues to rise across electric vehicles, renewable power and grid upgrades. Therefore, new SX–EW operations like Johnson Camp help reduce dependence on imported copper units.

Federal tax credits signal Washington’s willingness to support qualifying critical mineral projects. As a result, projects such as Johnson Camp can de-risk early capital phases and accelerate commissioning schedules. However, Gunnison Copper must still deliver consistent production performance, maintain environmental compliance and manage operating costs in Arizona’s competitive mining landscape.

For investors and copper buyers, the project offers modest but meaningful additional US cathode volumes. It may also showcase Nuton and Rio Tinto’s broader technology and partnership model for brownfield and mid-scale assets. Over time, similar projects could play a larger role in regional copper balance and contract pricing dynamics.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Gunnison Copper’s first cathode production at Johnson Camp illustrates how smaller US projects can still punch above their weight in policy terms. While volumes remain limited, the combination of Nuton funding and DOE tax support shows how technology and incentives now shape copper growth. Market participants should watch ramp-up performance closely, since SX–EW reliability will determine whether this asset becomes a durable pillar of US cathode supply.

China's Jiayuan to Secure Copper Cathode Supply from Swiss Firm IXM for Lithium-Ion Foil Production

Guangdong Jiayuan

Guangdong Jiayuan, a leading Chinese copper foil producer, has reached an agreement with Switzerland-based trading firm IXM to purchase a significant quantity of copper cathode feedstock. The deal, valued at approximately 5.066 billion yuan ($694 million), is set to support Jiayuan’s expansion of refined copper foil production, which is critical for lithium-ion batteries, copper-clad laminates, and printed circuit boards.

Details of the Copper Cathode Purchase Agreement

The agreement between Jiayuan and IXM will see the Chinese company secure 60,000 tons of copper cathode from IXM’s Geneva operations between December 2024 and November 2025. Additionally, Jiayuan will purchase 10,000 tons of cathode from IXM’s Shanghai branch during 2025. The price of the copper cathode will be determined through a negotiated pricing methodology, which will be finalized when both parties sign the contract.

Jiayuan, with a production capacity of 100,000 tons per year of refined copper foil, has seen steady growth in its production. In the first half of 2024, the company produced 24,000 tons of copper foil, marking a slight increase of 0.1% year-over-year. This agreement will ensure a steady supply of high-quality copper cathode to meet the growing demand for copper foil in key sectors such as electric vehicle (EV) batteries and electronic components.

China's Booming Copper Foil and NEV Industries

China’s refined copper foil production capacity reached 1.6 million tons per year in 2023, a 51% increase from the previous year. Notably, the production capacity for lithium-ion copper foil—used in batteries for electric vehicles—rose sharply by 68%, reaching 950,000 tons per year in 2023. With China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) market expanding rapidly, the demand for lithium-ion copper foil is expected to grow significantly. Industry experts predict that deliveries of lithium-ion copper foil in China will reach 1.1 million tons per year by 2025.

The Chinese NEV industry is experiencing robust growth, with production rising by 35% to 11.345 million units in the first 11 months of 2024. Sales of NEVs have also surged, increasing by 36% over the same period. As the NEV market continues to expand, the demand for copper, particularly copper foil for lithium-ion batteries, is expected to increase, further driving the need for stable copper supply agreements like the one between Jiayuan and IXM.

Copper Market Trends and Prices

On December 12, 2024, Metalnomist-assessed grade-A copper cathode prices, based on the London Metal Exchange (LME) official cash prices, were in the range of $40-60 per ton cif Shanghai. These prices remained flat compared to December 10, but they had dropped from the previous range of $45-60 per ton observed on December 5 due to a rebound in copper prices during the week. The fluctuating prices highlight the importance of securing stable supply contracts for manufacturers like Jiayuan as copper remains a critical commodity in the transition to a low-carbon economy.

Aurubis Reports Increase in Copper Cathode Output for Q4 2024

Aurubis

Copper Concentrate Throughput Declines, but Recycling and Cathode Production Rise

Aurubis, Europe’s largest copper producer and recycler, reported a positive performance in copper cathode and recycled cathode production for the fourth quarter of 2024. However, the company also saw a decrease in copper concentrate throughput during the same period, reflecting some challenges in its operations.

Growth in Copper Cathode and Recycled Cathode Production

In the October-December period of 2024, Aurubis produced 152,000 tonnes of copper cathode, marking a 1% increase from the previous year. This output consisted of 95,000 tonnes from its Hamburg plant in Germany and 57,000 tonnes from its Pirdop site in Bulgaria. The increase in production reflects Aurubis’ strong operational performance in copper cathode production.

Aurubis also reported a 4% increase in recycled cathode output, which reached 130,000 tonnes in Q4 2024. This growth was driven by higher production at its Lunen site in Germany, which saw a 27% increase in recycled cathode output. Lunen’s output reached 42,000 tonnes, supported by higher tankhouse capacity. The company’s Beerse and Olen sites in Belgium also contributed 6,000 tonnes and 82,000 tonnes, respectively, to the overall recycling output.

Decline in Copper Concentrate Throughput

On the downside, Aurubis experienced a 7% decrease in copper concentrate throughput in the fourth quarter, amounting to 601,000 tonnes. The decrease was largely attributed to a 13% reduction in production at the Hamburg site, which produced 261,000 tonnes. Despite the decline, the company’s overall performance remained strong due to the rise in copper cathode and recycled cathode output.

Aurubis also saw a significant improvement in its financial results, with operating profit before tax increasing by 17% to €130 million ($135 million). This was attributed to higher metal results and stronger earnings from its copper products, reinforcing the company’s strong position in the copper market.

Taseko Florence Copper Project Begins Cathode Production in Arizona

Taseko Mines Florence

Taseko Florence Copper project has reached a major milestone with the start of copper cathode production in Arizona. The company said production began earlier this week and expects its first cathode harvest within days. It also expects 30-35mn lbs of copper output from the Florence Copper project this year. As a result, Taseko Florence Copper project is moving from construction into commercial production.

This matters because the Florence Copper project gives Taseko a new source of Arizona copper cathode at a time when US copper supply remains strategically important. The company had already signaled in January that production was close after construction finished in the fourth quarter. Now the project has entered its next phase with actual cathode output. Therefore, Taseko Florence Copper project is becoming one of the more important near-term US copper ramp-ups.

Florence Copper Project Ramp-Up Now Depends on Wellfield Expansion

Florence Copper project still has more work ahead before reaching full production capacity. Taseko said it must expand wellfield operations to continue ramping output. The company currently has three drill rigs at the site and will add a fourth rig within the next week. As a result, the pace of wellfield expansion will directly shape how quickly the Florence Copper project reaches full operating potential.

This is important because early production milestones often attract attention, but ramp-up execution determines the project’s real long-term value. A smooth wellfield expansion would improve confidence in the company’s operating plan. However, delays could slow the path toward higher Arizona copper cathode volumes. Meanwhile, the current 2025 guidance gives the market a clear first benchmark for performance.

Taseko Copper Production Gains Support Beyond Florence

Taseko copper production is also expected to improve beyond Arizona. The company expects output at its Gibraltar mine in British Columbia to rise to 110-115mn lbs in 2026 from 98mn lbs in 2025. Gibraltar also produced 2.2mn lbs of copper cathode last year. Therefore, Taseko copper production is being supported by both a new US project and a stronger Canadian base.

The broader financial picture remains mixed. Taseko reported an annual loss in 2025, although it returned to quarterly profit in the fourth quarter. That makes the Florence Copper project even more important to the company’s growth story. Consequently, stronger production from Florence and Gibraltar could become central to improving financial performance over the next year.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This start-up matters because Florence is no longer a development promise. It is now a producing copper asset with clear near-term output targets. If Taseko manages the wellfield ramp-up effectively, Florence could become a more meaningful part of the North American copper supply story.

EQ copper premiums set to climb in 2026 as China embraces DRC supply

Copper

EQ copper premiums are poised to rise in 2026 as China deepens its adoption of equivalent-quality cathodes sourced from the DRC. Market participants expect EQ copper premiums to move sharply higher from today’s levels, reflecting tighter discounts in the DRC and shifting global trade flows. As a result, EQ copper premiums are becoming a critical signal for Chinese fabricators and global copper traders alike.

EQ copper premiums linked to DRC discounts and shifting trade flows

EQ copper premiums today sit around $30–35/t cif Shanghai, but traders already flag upside for 2026. This year’s term deals for EQ copper premiums were agreed at just $5–10/t, so a move toward $30/t would mark a structural reset. The key driver is cost escalation in the DRC, where discounts to LME prices have narrowed as local prices firm.

Meanwhile, rapid production growth in the DRC has transformed EQ copper’s role in China’s import mix. EQ copper cathode, largely DRC-origin, now accounts for more than a third of China’s cathode imports, up from about 10pc in 2020. At the same time, Chilean cathode has been diverted toward the US, amid tariff speculation, with China’s imports from Chile falling by 45pc year on year in January–August 2025. Therefore EQ copper premiums increasingly reflect both DRC mine economics and changing global copper trade patterns.

EQ copper premiums narrow the gap to exchange-listed cathode

The premium spread between exchange-registered cathodes and EQ copper premiums has narrowed to roughly $30/t this month. Previously, the spread hovered around $50/t in the second quarter, when Chinese buyers still favoured exchange-listed cathodes. However, rising flat prices and tighter LME–SHFE arbitrage have pushed many fabricators toward EQ material.

Chinese cable makers and fabricators now treat EQ cathode as a mainstream choice, thanks to reliable quality and lower all-in costs. As a result, EQ copper premiums are no longer a marginal discount indicator but a core benchmark in the Chinese physical market. At the same time, SuperMetalPrice launch of a dedicated EQ copper import premium assessment formalises this shift and gives traders a clearer pricing reference tied to the LME cash price.

EQ copper premiums sit within a wider zinc and copper premium realignment

EQ copper premiums are rising against a backdrop of broader base metal premium recalibration. Domestic Grade-A copper premiums in China, referenced to SHFE front-month, remain in a modest band from a slight discount to a small premium. Import arbitrage has improved, with the newly assessed copper cathode arbitrage at -Yn280/t, up from deeper negative levels earlier in September, which supports seaborne interest.

At the same time, zinc and other base metal premiums remain capped by weak downstream demand, even as LME stock draws offer support. This creates an unusual environment where EQ copper premiums strengthen on supply and trade-flow dynamics, while broader consumption indicators stay soft. For global traders, EQ copper premiums now sit at the intersection of DRC mine supply, Chinese import arbitrage, and evolving risk pricing around non-exchange material.

The Metalnomist Commentary

EQ copper premiums are emerging as a strategic barometer for China’s copper supply security and DRC exposure. If 2026 term negotiations lock in markedly higher EQ copper premiums, that will confirm EQ cathode’s shift from discount alternative to benchmark feedstock. Watch how Chile–US trade flows and DRC discount behaviour evolve, because both will dictate whether EQ copper premiums continue to climb beyond the $30/t threshold.

Taseko Florence Copper Project Starts Cathode Ramp-Up in Arizona

Taseko

Taseko Florence copper project has started producing copper cathode in Arizona, giving Canadian producer Taseko Mines its first commercial metal from the US in-situ copper development. The project’s solvent extraction and electrowinning plant started operations in mid-February and produced 1.5mn lb, or about 680t, of copper cathode in the first quarter.

The Taseko Florence copper project is important because it uses in-situ copper recovery rather than conventional open-pit mining. The process leaches copper underground and recovers it through solution flows before producing cathode through solvent extraction and electrowinning.

The Taseko Florence copper project offers a different supply model for the US copper market. It can reduce upfront capital intensity compared with traditional mining, but it depends on careful control of underground leaching, solution movement, grades and environmental performance.

Taseko previously targeted 40mn-50mn lb of copper output from Florence in 2026. The company expects production to rise to 80mn lb in 2027 as the project moves through ramp-up.

Florence Adds US Cathode Capacity With Lower Mining Intensity

Florence’s first cathode production marks a key operational step for Taseko. The project is now moving from construction and commissioning into the early stage of commercial production.

The in-situ recovery model gives Florence strategic relevance. It avoids large-scale excavation and instead relies on controlled leaching below ground, which can reduce surface disturbance and capital needs.

However, the method also requires disciplined technical execution. Operators must manage solution chemistry, wellfield performance, recovery rates and environmental controls to ensure the process remains stable.

Florence’s output will come as refined copper demand becomes increasingly tied to electrification, grid investment, data centres, electric vehicles and domestic manufacturing. US cathode supply is strategically important because refined copper availability affects wire, cable, power equipment and industrial users.

The project’s cost exposure also looks partly protected in the near term. Taseko said Florence will not face the sharp recent rise in sulphuric acid prices because its acid supply is locked under a fixed-price contract for this year.

That protection matters. Sulphuric acid has become a more sensitive cost input for copper leaching operations because Middle East disruption and tighter sulphur flows have lifted market concerns. A fixed-price contract gives Florence more cost visibility during its early ramp-up.

Gibraltar Output Jumps as Diesel Costs Add Pressure

Taseko’s established Gibraltar mine in British Columbia also delivered a stronger first quarter. Copper output rose to 30mn lb, or about 13,600t, up 50% from a year earlier.

The increase was supported by steadier grades and better recoveries. This suggests Gibraltar benefited from improved operating performance rather than only stronger throughput.

Molybdenum output also rose sharply. Gibraltar produced 717,000 lb, or about 325t, of molybdenum in the first quarter, up 113% from a year earlier.

Molybdenum by-product output can improve mine economics because it adds revenue beyond copper. It also links Gibraltar to special steel, stainless steel, energy equipment and high-strength alloy demand.

Sales lagged production slightly because of shipping timing. This means some of the production benefit may flow through later, depending on shipment schedules and realized prices.

Cost pressure remains a risk. Taseko said higher diesel prices could add 10-15¢/lb to Gibraltar costs this year, equivalent to about $220-330/t.

Diesel exposure is important for open-pit mines because haulage, mobile equipment and site logistics rely heavily on fuel. If energy prices remain elevated, Gibraltar’s operating costs could rise even as production performance improves.

Taseko’s first-quarter update therefore shows two different copper stories. Florence is entering ramp-up as a new US cathode asset with fixed acid pricing, while Gibraltar is producing more copper and molybdenum but faces higher fuel-cost risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Taseko’s update shows how copper supply growth is increasingly tied to project type and cost exposure. Florence offers a lower-mining-intensity US cathode route, while Gibraltar highlights the continuing importance of grade, recovery and diesel costs in conventional copper mining.

Aurubis Sees Slight Decline in Copper Cathode Production Amid Maintenance and Expansion Efforts

Aurubis, Europe's largest copper producer and recycler, reported a slight decrease in copper cathode production during the first nine months of its fiscal year, driven primarily by a downturn in its recycling division. The Hamburg-based company announced on Friday that it produced 838,000 tons of copper cathode between October and June, marking a 0.4% decline from the same period last year.

The drop in production is largely attributed to a 2% year-on-year decrease in output from Aurubis' recycling division, which managed 383,000 tons of copper cathode during this period. The decline was most pronounced at the company's Lunen facility in Germany, where production fell by 6% to 111,000 tons due to maintenance work carried out early in the fiscal year.

However, the recycling division saw a rebound in the April to June quarter, with output increasing by 4% compared to the previous quarter. This recovery was bolstered by a 14% surge in production at the Lunen plant following the completion of a tankhouse refurbishment in June, which has increased the plant's annual copper cathode capacity by 10% to 210,000 tons.

Aurubis operates three recycling plants that produce copper cathode from scrap: Beerse and Olen in Belgium, and Lunen in Germany. While Lunen saw a slight dip earlier in the year, output from the Beerse and Olen facilities remained largely stable, mitigating the overall impact on the company's recycling output.

In contrast, Aurubis' smelting division experienced a modest growth in copper cathode production, with a 1% increase year-on-year to 455,000 tons. The Hamburg plant contributed 284,000 tons, while the Pirdop site in Bulgaria added 171,000 tons. The division's overall stability highlights the continued robust demand for copper in Europe, even as the global market faces fluctuating dynamics.

Aurubis also reported a 2% increase in concentrate throughput at its primary smelters, reaching 1.74 million tons. This was largely driven by a 15% surge in throughput at the Pirdop site, which offset a 12% decline at the Hamburg facility. The company is currently expanding the tankhouse at its Pirdop plant, a project that began in April and is expected to boost the site's refined copper output by 50% to 340,000 tons per year by the second half of 2026.

Looking ahead, Aurubis expressed confidence in maintaining stable demand for copper cathodes for the remainder of the fiscal year, supported by ongoing expansion efforts and the completion of key maintenance projects.

US Tariffs Pressure Copper Prices and Curb China’s Scrap Imports

China Copper

US tariffs, introduced by President Donald Trump on April 2, have significantly impacted global copper prices. The tariffs, set at a minimum 10% tax on all foreign imports, have caused concerns about weakened copper demand, particularly from key industries that rely on copper, such as automobiles and home appliances. China’s copper scrap imports are also under pressure due to retaliatory tariffs, which will be implemented by China on April 10.

Impact of Tariffs on Copper Prices

Following the announcement of tariffs, copper prices saw a dramatic decline. As of April 7, London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper prices fell to a one-year low of $8,105 per ton, a significant drop from $9,721 per ton on April 2. Similarly, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) prices also plummeted to a three-month low of 73,640 yuan per ton from 79,890 yuan per ton during the same period.

Although copper itself is not directly affected by the new tariffs, the downstream sectors, such as automotive manufacturing and home appliances, face substantial tariffs. This will likely depress demand for copper, as these industries represent significant end-users of copper products.

US Tariffs on Cars and Appliances Affect Copper Demand

A 25% tariff on imported cars and trucks came into effect on April 3, with a further 25% tax on auto parts set to follow in May. The US light vehicle market saw significant growth in 2024, with sales climbing to 16.8 million units. Similarly, the US imported $23.5 billion worth of home appliances from China in 2024. These appliances, including cooling devices and electronics, represented 23% of global copper demand in 2023. The imposition of tariffs on these goods will likely lead to a reduction in copper demand from the US.

On a positive note, lower copper prices may drive copper fabricators to restock in the short term, especially after a significant price drop in late March. Data from the SHFE shows that copper stocks fell from 256,328 tons on March 21 to 225,736 tons by April 3, as downstream buyers rushed to purchase copper cathode in response to falling prices.

China’s Retaliatory Tariffs and Copper Scrap Imports

China’s planned tariffs on US copper scrap, set to take effect on April 10, will impact copper supply in the country. In 2024, China imported over 440,000 tons of copper scrap from the US, accounting for nearly 20% of its total copper scrap imports. However, market participants predict that some traders will attempt to bypass the tariffs by sourcing US-origin copper scrap from other countries.

In February, US copper scrap exports fell by 10% compared to the previous year, with China seeing the largest drop in imports. This decrease in exports can be attributed to tariff expectations, which have made it difficult for US exporters to remain competitive. The large spread between CME and LME prices has further strained export options, leaving US dealers with excess scrap volumes.

Limited Impact on Copper Concentrate and Cathode Supplies

China’s retaliatory tariffs are expected to have a minimal impact on its domestic copper concentrate and cathode supply. In 2024, China imported just 460,000 tons of copper concentrate and 1,575 tons of copper cathode from the US, representing only a small fraction of its total imports. Therefore, the retaliatory tariffs are unlikely to cause significant disruptions to these supply chains.

Cyprium to restart Cu operations at W Australia Nifty site with 6,000 t/yr cathode plan

Cyprium Metals

Cyprium to restart Cu operations at W Australia Nifty site as it prepares a phased return to copper cathode production. Cyprium Metals will restart operations at the Nifty complex near Port Hedland. Cyprium to restart Cu operations at W Australia Nifty site with a target of 6,000 tonnes per year of copper cathode. Therefore, the project is positioning for deliveries that begin next year.

The restart plan begins with cathode operations and then moves toward open-pit reactivation. The company expects operations to resume in mid-2026. Meanwhile, it plans to releach existing heap leach pads to recover additional copper volumes. As a result, near-term output can rely on existing infrastructure before new mining ramps.

Glencore offtake secures 100% cathode output and start-up materials

Glencore signed an offtake agreement last year for Nifty copper cathode. Glencore will buy 100% of cathode output and also take off-spec material during start-up. Meanwhile, Glencore will provide technical assistance during the restart of Nifty’s two processing plants. Therefore, the offtake reduces sales risk and tightens operational support.

This structure also signals how traders are shaping copper supply chains. It links restart execution to assured market access and technical guidance. However, ramp success will still depend on metallurgy, uptime, and stable leach performance. As a result, the first quarters of production will set credibility for longer-term expansion.

Approvals advance first phase, but sulphide plans need a new operating pathway

Cyprium has received several environmental and regulatory approvals for the first phase. These approvals allow the cathode restart to proceed. Meanwhile, the company said it must submit a new mine operating plan for sulphide ore recovery and processing. Therefore, the longer-term strategy requires a distinct permitting and planning track.

The phased approach can reduce upfront capital exposure. It can also generate cash flow while the company prepares sulphide development. However, sulphide processing often adds complexity and requires tighter compliance and engineering. As a result, Cyprium to restart Cu operations at W Australia Nifty site as a near-term cathode story, while sulphides remain the next major milestone.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Restart projects can deliver fast copper units when infrastructure already exists. Meanwhile, offtake-backed ramp plans can still fail without stable leach kinetics and plant reliability. Therefore, Nifty’s most important KPI will be consistent cathode quality and recovery in the first year.

Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan strengthens Europe’s critical copper supply

Aurubis

The Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan marks a major step in Europe’s critical raw materials strategy. The €200mn investment loan from the European Investment Bank (EIB) will fund capacity growth at Aurubis sites in Bulgaria and Germany. As a result, the Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan directly targets higher refined copper output and more recycled copper flows into EU industry.

The Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan is also the first EIB metals-sector financing under the bank’s new raw materials strategy. In March, the EIB committed to lend around €2bn a year to critical raw materials projects. These include extraction, processing, recycling and substitution technologies across the energy transition value chain. Therefore, the Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan serves as an early flagship for this new mandate.

EIB backs primary and secondary copper growth at Pirdop and Hamburg

Aurubis will use the EIB loan to expand both primary and secondary copper capacity. At Pirdop in Bulgaria, the company is investing €120mn to enlarge its tank-house. This expansion will lift refined copper cathode capacity by 50pc to 340,000 t/yr. Commissioning is planned for fiscal year 2025-26, adding meaningful volumes to Europe’s copper pool.

At the same time, Aurubis will invest €190mn in its Hamburg smelter and refinery complex. The project will enable an extra 30,000 t/yr of recycled copper scrap processing, alongside more internal smelting intermediates. Therefore, the Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan supports both mined copper and circular copper streams. This dual focus directly aligns with EU priorities on recycling, resource efficiency and lower embedded emissions.

These expansions will further cement Aurubis’ position as Europe’s largest copper producer. Increased output from Pirdop and Hamburg should improve regional security of supply. That security is critical as copper demand rises for grid upgrades, renewables, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence and data centre infrastructure.

Copper market vulnerability drives EU support for Aurubis

Recent market dynamics underline why the Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan matters for Europe. Earlier this year, a huge influx of global copper flowed into the US. End-users and traders stockpiled metal ahead of expected US copper import tariffs that never materialised. However, the diversion exposed how quickly European copper availability can tighten when trade flows shift.

Europe’s vulnerability stems from its heavy dependence on imported copper concentrates and refined metal. Any tariff scare, logistics disruption or geopolitical shock can pull units away from the Atlantic basin. Therefore, building more regional smelting, refining and recycling capacity has become a strategic priority. The Aurubis EIB copper expansion loan is a concrete step toward that goal.

By boosting both primary cathode output and recycled copper processing, Aurubis supports a more resilient supply base. Meanwhile, EIB-backed capital lowers financing costs and signals strong policy alignment. Over time, this combination could help stabilise European copper premia and reduce exposure to external shocks.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Aurubis’ deal with the EIB shows how copper is moving to the centre of Europe’s industrial and energy transition policy. The mix of primary capacity growth and scrap-based expansion reflects a realistic view of future copper constraints. Market participants should watch how quickly the new tank-house and Hamburg upgrades translate into additional cathode and scrap-processing volumes, especially if trade tensions divert metal again.

Taseko expects first Cu cathode in coming weeks as Florence Copper nears startup

Taseko

Taseko expects first Cu cathode in coming weeks from its Florence Copper project in Arizona. The company has completed construction at Florence Copper. As a result, Taseko expects first Cu cathode in coming weeks after missing its earlier end-2025 startup target.

Taseko expects first Cu cathode in coming weeks while it also leans on its producing Gibraltar mine in British Columbia. Gibraltar delivered 31mn lbs of copper in the fourth quarter, up 12pc from the third quarter. Meanwhile, 2025 copper output reached 98mn lbs, slightly below the company’s earlier projection.

Florence Copper startup adds a new US copper cathode stream

Florence Copper matters because it should diversify Taseko’s production base beyond Gibraltar. The project also positions Taseko inside the US copper supply chain. Therefore, the first cathode milestone becomes a key credibility marker for schedule execution.

Startup timing still shapes near-term sentiment. However, construction completion reduces execution risk versus earlier phases. As a result, investors will shift attention to ramp-up stability, recovery rates, and operating cost performance.

Gibraltar performance sets the 2026 baseline

Gibraltar performance matters because it funds growth and smooths cash flow. The mine’s 2025 copper output fell slightly short due to unscheduled maintenance and a temporary shutdown after a serious accident in November. Meanwhile, molybdenum output improved, with 800,000 lbs produced in the fourth quarter and 1.9mn lbs for the year.

Management expects more consistent quarterly production in 2026. Therefore, Gibraltar’s reliability will remain central even as Florence Copper starts producing. However, operational discipline and safety performance will stay under scrutiny after the November incident.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This is a classic transition moment from build to operate, and the first cathode is the real starting gun. However, the market will judge Florence Copper on ramp-up consistency, not the first pour. If Gibraltar stabilises, Taseko can enter 2026 with stronger production cadence.

Taseko copper guidance cut again as Gibraltar underperforms

Taseko

Taseko copper guidance cut for 2025 highlights the strain at its Gibraltar mine in British Columbia. Taseko copper guidance cut by 11pc shows how earlier operational shortfalls still weigh on full-year output expectations. As a result, Taseko copper guidance cut underscores the growing importance of new production from Florence Copper in Arizona.

Gibraltar struggles to regain copper momentum

Taseko now expects 2025 copper production of 100mn–105mn lbs, including cathode output. This latest Taseko copper guidance cut follows weaker-than-planned performance earlier in the year. The company admits it cannot fully recover the production shortfall created by low recoveries in the first quarter.

However, third-quarter copper production edged up by 2pc to 27.6mn lbs, including 900,000lbs of cathode. Second-quarter output slipped to 19.8mn lbs, down from 20.2mn lbs a year earlier. The company sold 26.3mn lbs of copper in the third quarter, flat year on year, indicating that sales have not yet reflected meaningful growth.

Meanwhile, by-product performance improved, with molybdenum production up 33pc on the year to 560,000lbs. This helps unit costs but cannot fully offset the impact of lower-than-guided copper volumes. Taseko still expects a “significant” fourth-quarter copper production increase, but the lowered guidance shows that recovery will be partial at best.

Florence Copper steps up as future growth driver

The guidance reset increases pressure on the Florence Copper project to deliver new volumes. Taseko has started wellfield operations at Florence after receiving final regulatory approvals, marking a key de-risking milestone. The company expects first copper cathode from Florence in about three months, adding a second production base.

As a result, Florence Copper could gradually rebalance the group’s portfolio away from relying solely on Gibraltar. In-situ leach cathode production should also help diversify cost structures and reduce exposure to Gibraltar’s recovery volatility. Over time, the combination of Gibraltar concentrate and Florence cathode can strengthen Taseko’s position in the North American copper market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Taseko’s trimmed outlook shows how fragile single-asset copper stories can be when recoveries slip. The speed and reliability of the Florence Copper ramp-up will likely define investor confidence far more than short-term Gibraltar variability. If Florence delivers on schedule, the current guidance cut may be remembered as a temporary stumble rather than a structural setback.

Florence Copper first cathode by year-end as Taseko nears production

Copper Cathode Florence

Taseko targets Florence Copper first cathode by the end of 2025. The company says construction is over 90pc complete. It expects commercial operations in just a few months. Higher prices strengthen the economics of Florence Copper first cathode production. Investors now track Florence Copper first cathode milestones closely.

Project timeline and economics

Taseko expects the plant to produce 85mn lbs/yr of copper cathode at capacity. The Arizona site advances toward mechanical completion and commissioning. As a result, management argues near-term cash flows look robust. The guidance aligns with its build schedule and procurement cadence.

Market context and tariff tailwinds

Copper rallied to a record $5.72/lb on the CME this week. Meanwhile, planned US tariffs of 50pc on copper imports start 1 August. Taseko believes those tariffs will “further boost” project value. Therefore, domestic cathode should capture stronger realized pricing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Domestic cathode adds resilience to US supply at a pivotal moment. If execution holds, Florence could monetize today’s price strength. Watch tariff policy and commissioning performance for the next leg of value creation.

Kinterra Arizona copper project acquisition boosts US critical copper capacity

Kinterra Arizona Copper Project

Kinterra Arizona copper project acquisition marks a major expansion of the firm’s US copper footprint. The Kinterra Arizona copper project adds the Antler Copper Project to an existing portfolio in Michigan and Nevada. As a result, the Kinterra Arizona copper project positions the firm as a meaningful mid-tier copper player in North America.

Kinterra Arizona copper project strengthens multi-asset US platform

Kinterra fully acquired the Antler Copper Project from Australia’s New World Resources. With Antler added, Kinterra will control about 175,000t per year of copper capacity across White Pine, Pumpkin Hollow and Antler. The Antler asset itself is expected to produce 16,400t per year of copper when operational. It will also deliver 34,500t per year of zinc and 3,600t per year of lead as valuable by-products. These multi-metal streams improve project economics and diversify exposure beyond copper alone.

Earlier this year, US officials selected Antler for an expedited critical minerals permitting initiative. This fast-track status aims to compress the usual permitting timeline and support earlier production. All key permits are expected by the first quarter of 2026, with first production targeted for 2027. For downstream buyers, that schedule offers clearer visibility on future North American copper and zinc units.

Kinterra Arizona copper project ties into sulphide leach and cathode strategy

Kinterra is also launching a sulphide leach technology initiative across its US copper portfolio. The programme will assess and develop sulphide leach processing routes that could unlock domestic copper cathode production. Initial testing and pilot plans are expected in early 2026, aligning with the Antler project’s permitting milestones. If successful, this strategy could shift more material from concentrate exports toward higher-value refined cathode within the US.

This processing ambition supports US goals to deepen midstream copper capabilities, not just upstream mining. Integrating mining assets with emerging sulphide leach technologies may also improve recovery rates and lower unit costs over time. For policymakers and OEMs, such investments create additional optionality in a tightening global copper market.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Kinterra’s full control of Antler is a textbook example of private equity moving aggressively into critical copper supply. The combination of expedited permitting and sulphide leach innovation could turn this portfolio into a strategic domestic copper platform. Investors will now watch execution risk closely, especially around technology deployment and the 2027 production start.

MMG copper output 2025 hits seven-year high on Las Bambas surge

MMG

MMG copper output 2025 hit a seven-year high as the Chinese miner leveraged strong performance at Las Bambas in Peru. MMG copper output 2025 reached 506,899t, with growth underpinned by record ore mined, processed and recovered across its global portfolio. As a result, MMG copper output 2025 highlights how Chinese-backed assets are reshaping global copper supply and treatment charge dynamics.

Las Bambas and Khoemacau anchor MMG’s copper growth

Las Bambas drove most of the increase in MMG copper output 2025. The Peruvian mine produced 410,834t of copper in concentrate, up 27pc year on year. Higher ore mining rates, improved plant throughput and stronger recovery combined to lift site performance.

MMG set a 400,000t production target for Las Bambas in 2026, signalling confidence in the mine’s stability. However, community risks and logistics in Peru will remain key watchpoints for traders and smelters. Higher sustained output from Las Bambas will reinforce Peru’s position as a core supplier to Asian and Atlantic copper markets.

Khoemacau in Botswana added new growth momentum to MMG’s profile. The mine delivered 42,120t of copper concentrate in 2025, up 36pc from 2024. MMG plans to expand Khoemacau’s capacity to 130,000 t/yr by 2028, with longer-term potential to reach 200,000 t/yr after further studies.

DRC expansion and tightening treatment charges

MMG’s Kinsevere operation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo contributed to the stronger MMG copper output 2025. Copper cathode production at Kinsevere rose 18pc to 52,791t. An expansion project, which delivered its first cathode in late 2024, should push annual output to 65,000–75,000t in 2026. This reinforces the DRC’s role as a key growth hub for refined copper supply.

Meanwhile, MMG reported a mixed picture in other base metals. Zinc output increased by 6pc to 232,060t, while lead production slipped 5pc to 39,608t. However, the broader copper concentrate market remained the tightest stress point for smelters. Concentrate supply lagged new smelting capacity, pushing treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) deep into negative territory.

Smelter TC/RC benchmarks turned sharply lower through 2025, reflecting a continued shortage of clean copper concentrate. The Metalnomist smelter purchase index fell from slightly positive levels in early 2025 to significantly negative by year-end. Trader purchase indices weakened even further as competition intensified for spot tonnes. This environment favours well-positioned miners like MMG with scalable, low-cost concentrate streams.

Strategic implications for global copper supply

The step-up in MMG copper output 2025 underscores the influence of Chinese state-linked capital in strategic copper regions. Las Bambas, Khoemacau and Kinsevere together form a diversified platform across Peru, Botswana and the DRC. This geographic spread reduces single-asset risk while deepening China’s indirect exposure to offshore copper units.

For smelters, MMG’s growth slightly eases concentrate tightness but does not fully resolve structural deficit. New Asian and European smelting projects continue to outpace mine supply growth, keeping downward pressure on TC/RCs. As a result, smelters face margin squeeze unless by-product credits or premiums can offset weaker treatment terms.

Downstream, strong MMG copper output 2025 supports long-term energy transition demand. Additional tonnes from Las Bambas and future Khoemacau expansions will feed wiring, renewables, EVs and grid investments. However, the aggressive project pipeline also depends on stable permitting, local community relations and predictable fiscal regimes in host countries.

Focus keyphrases: MMG copper output 2025, Las Bambas copper, Khoemacau Botswana copper, Kinsevere DRC copper, copper concentrate TC/RCs, global copper supply growth

The Metalnomist Commentary

MMG copper output 2025 reinforces the miner’s position as a pivotal supplier into a structurally tight copper concentrate market. While rising volumes from Las Bambas, Khoemacau and Kinsevere are welcome news for smelters and traders, they arrive in a world where new refining capacity still outstrips mine growth. Expect continued pressure on TC/RCs and a premium for diversified, scalable copper producers like MMG as the energy transition accelerates.

Namibian Copper Assets Move Toward 2027 Restart as CCC Targets Brownfield Growth

Consolidated Copper Corporation

Namibian copper assets are moving back into focus as Consolidated Copper Corporation prepares to restart its Central Operations project in October 2027. The plan could add meaningful concentrate supply from Namibia at a time when copper buyers are seeking stable, diversified sources outside traditional high-risk jurisdictions.

Central Operations includes the Otjihase and Matchless underground copper mines. CCC expects 2028 to be the first full year of production, with copper concentrate output above 23,000t. Output is then expected to rise to more than 35,000t in 2029 and exceed 45,000t by 2033.

The restart also shows how brownfield copper assets can become strategically valuable in a tight global market. CCC is not building an entirely new mining system from scratch. Instead, it is rehabilitating existing operations, using established infrastructure, and scaling production as mining capacity improves.

Central Operations Highlights Namibia’s Brownfield Copper Potential

Namibian copper assets offer CCC a lower-risk route to growth because existing mines and processing infrastructure can shorten development timelines. In the initial phase, mining capacity will limit concentrate output more than concentrator capacity. CCC expects to use only one-third to one-half of the plant’s capacity at first, depending on how quickly ore production ramps up.

This approach reflects a broader shift in copper development strategy. As greenfield projects become slower, more expensive, and more exposed to permitting risk, brownfield restarts can offer faster supply additions. Namibia’s advantage lies in combining geological potential with a relatively stable operating environment.

CCC’s wider portfolio supports that strategy. The company also operates the Tschudi copper mine and owns Berg Aukas, a former zinc mine under redevelopment evaluation. At Tschudi, CCC has produced 6,946t of copper cathode since June 2024 from residual copper in an existing heap, including 3,237t in 2025.

Sulphuric Acid Supply Becomes a Strategic Constraint

Sulphuric acid supply is becoming a key cost and logistics issue for copper producers in Namibia and southern Africa. CCC has consumed 29,473t of sulphuric acid to date, including 15,432t in 2025. This highlights how copper output increasingly depends not only on ore and processing capacity, but also on reliable chemical supply chains.

Tschudi has a nameplate capacity of 17,000 t/yr of copper cathode. Production reached 6,000-7,000t in the first year and is expected to rise to 14,000-15,000t by year three or four. However, tight acid markets could influence operating costs, procurement strategy, and the pace of regional copper growth.

Namibia is also attracting broader copper development interest. Projects such as Koryx Copper’s Haib and New Horizon Copper’s Kombat mine show that the country is building a more visible position in the African copper pipeline. As buyers look for supply diversification, Namibia’s ability to provide regulatory stability and faster project execution could become a competitive advantage.

The Metalnomist Commentary

CCC’s restart plan shows why brownfield copper assets are becoming strategically important in the energy transition supply chain. Namibia’s opportunity is not only geological; it is also about infrastructure, policy stability, and secure inputs such as sulphuric acid.

Hudbay ASCU Acquisition Builds Larger Arizona Copper Growth Platform

Hudbay Arizona Copper

Hudbay ASCU acquisition plans will give Hudbay Minerals full control of the Cactus copper project in Arizona and create a larger copper growth platform in the US southwest. The all-share transaction is valued at about C$1.5bn and will add Cactus to Hudbay’s existing Copper World development.

Hudbay already owns just under 10pc of Arizona Sonoran Copper Company and will acquire the remaining shares through the deal. The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to required approvals and closing conditions.

Hudbay ASCU acquisition strategy is built around scale, timing, and operating synergies. By combining Copper World and Cactus, Hudbay says it will control the third-largest copper district in North America, positioning the company for a major production increase by 2030.

Arizona Projects Could Double Hudbay’s Copper Output

Hudbay expects staged development of Copper World and Cactus to lift total annual copper production from around 125,000t today to more than 250,000t by 2030. Combined output could exceed 350,000 t/yr once Cactus reaches full development.

Copper World is expected to produce around 92,000 t/yr of copper by 2030. Cactus is expected to add about 103,000 t/yr at steady state, giving Hudbay a second major Arizona production pillar.

Both projects are expected to produce copper cathode. This matters because cathode production provides direct refined copper units for wire, electrical infrastructure, construction, industrial equipment, and energy transition supply chains.

Cactus and Copper World Create Operational Synergy

Hudbay ASCU acquisition plans also carry practical operating benefits. The company expects the two Arizona projects to share construction teams, which could improve execution and reduce duplication during development.

Sulfuric acid supply is another key synergy. Hudbay expects Copper World to provide sulfuric acid for oxide leaching at Cactus, linking the two assets within a more integrated regional operating model.

The company also expects $5mn-10mn/yr in corporate cost savings. While the figure is modest compared with the project value, the larger strategic benefit comes from consolidating land, infrastructure, construction planning, and future copper output in one district.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hudbay’s ASCU deal shows how copper developers are using consolidation to build scale before the next supply deficit tightens. Arizona’s value lies not only in resource size, but in the ability to create integrated cathode production near major North American demand centers.