Global Refined Copper Market Records Surplus in 2024 Due to Increased Output in China and DRC

Copper Market

Surplus Marks Significant Shift from 2023 Deficit

The global refined copper market posted a surplus in 2024, breaking from the deficit seen in 2023. According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), refined copper production reached 27.63 million tonnes, while consumption totaled 27.33 million tonnes. This 301,000-tonne surplus contrasts with the previous year’s 52,000-tonne deficit. The main drivers behind this surplus were higher outputs in China and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Strong Output Growth Across Key Mining Regions

Global copper mine production grew by nearly 2.4% year-on-year, reaching 22.91 million tonnes in 2024. This increase followed recoveries from supply constraints in 2023 in countries such as Chile and Indonesia. Significant expansions in DRC, Botswana, Mongolia, and Serbia further boosted output. Notably, DRC's copper production surged by 14% due to ramp-ups at the Kinsanfu mine and expansions at Tenke and Kamoa-Kakula. Chile’s copper output also increased by 5%, thanks to higher production at Escondida and Collahuasi, along with the ramp-up of Quebrada Blanca. Indonesia experienced a 14% rebound after overcoming operational challenges at Grasberg and Batu Hijau mines in 2023.

Refined Copper Output and Demand Trends

Refined copper output globally rose by 4.2% in 2024, led by expanded capacity in China and DRC. These two nations now contribute about 54% of world refined copper production. Primary refined production, including electrolytic and electrowinning from ores, amounted to 23.05 million tonnes, while secondary production from scrap reached 4.58 million tonnes. Output rose in Japan and the US but fell in Chile and the EU. World refined copper use also climbed by 2.9%, with Chinese apparent demand up by 3.5%. Nevertheless, weaker demand in the EU, Japan, and the US tempered global growth. In December, refined copper consumption exceeded production, causing a 22,000-tonne monthly deficit.