China's Gem Delivers Ultra-High Nickel NCM Precursors

GEM

Breakthrough in NCM Technology Strengthens China’s Battery Supply Chain

Chinese battery materials firm Green Eco-Manufacture (GEM) has achieved a major milestone by delivering its first ultra-high nickel content NCM precursors. The delivery, made by its subsidiary Jingmen Gem New Material on 7 April, marks the world’s first large-scale production of 9-series NCM precursors. These materials play a critical role in high-energy lithium-ion batteries, particularly for electric vehicles.

Gem plans to produce 3,000 tonnes per month of 9-series NCM precursors. This follows its successful commercialization of 8-series high nickel content precursors in 2022, signaling its leading position in the high-nickel battery materials market.

Indonesia Operations Drive Nickel Supply Security

To secure raw material feedstock, Gem has built 150,000 t/yr of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) capacity in Indonesia. In the first quarter of 2025, Gem shipped 25,000 tonnes of MHP, achieving over a 95% capacity run rate. The firm also aims to boost its high-nickel precursor production in Indonesia to 50,000 t/yr.

In November 2024, Gem signed a key agreement with PT Vale Indonesia (PTVI) to co-develop a high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) plant in Central Sulawesi. The facility will produce 66,000 t/yr of nickel metal equivalent MHP, further reinforcing Gem’s supply chain for battery-grade nickel.

China Boosts Imports of Indonesian Nickel

China’s dependence on Indonesian nickel continues to deepen. Imports of MHP from Indonesia surged 73% year-on-year to 258,709 tonnes in the January–February 2025 period. This growth stems from efficient production at Chinese-owned facilities in Indonesia, ensuring a steady flow of critical battery inputs despite global supply chain volatility.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Gem's advancement in ultra-high nickel NCM precursors reflects China’s growing command of the battery materials value chain. By integrating upstream supply from Indonesia and advancing precursor technologies, China is setting the pace in next-generation EV materials while reducing its dependence on traditional suppliers.

China's XTC Reports Strong CAM Sales Growth in First Half of 2024

XTC New Energy Materials

Chinese lithium-ion battery cathode active material (CAM) manufacturer XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen) reported a significant increase in sales for the first half of 2024. The firm’s growth was driven by rising demand from downstream industries, reflecting the broader surge in demand for electric vehicle batteries and energy storage solutions.

Impressive Sales Growth

XTC New Energy's sales of CAM, including lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) and lithium nickel-cobalt-manganese oxide (NCM), soared by 67% year-on-year, reaching 44,740 tonnes from January to June. The sales included 18,401 tonnes of LCO, up 30%, and 26,338 tonnes of NCM, a remarkable 109% increase. The surge in NCM sales reflects the growing demand for high-performance battery materials in the global market.

Expanding Production and International Presence

XTC New Energy, once a division of Xiamen Tungsten (XTC), has been operating independently since 2016, focusing on the research, development, production, and sale of CAM for lithium-ion batteries. The company is actively expanding its production capacity. In September 2023, XTC unveiled plans to build a 40,000 t/yr NCM plant in France in partnership with France-based Orano CAM, aiming to strengthen its international presence.

In addition, XTC New Energy is building a new factory in Ya’an, Sichuan province, to produce lithium iron phosphate (LFP), with a planned annual capacity of 100,000 tonnes. The first phase of the plant, with a capacity of 20,000 tonnes, began trial production earlier this year.

XTC New Energy has established partnerships with leading global and domestic battery manufacturers, including ATL, Samsung SDI, Murata, LGC, Sunwoda, Zhuhai Guanyu, and BYD. The company’s CAM products are widely used in middle- and high-end electronics and power lithium batteries. XTC also collaborates with power battery producers such as CALB, Panasonic, BYD, CATL, Sunwoda Electronic, and Gotion High-tech, further solidifying its role in the global battery supply chain.

Ronbay Begins High-Nickel NCM Precursor Shipments from South Korea

Ronbay

Strategic Expansion into Global Supply Chains

Chinese battery material giant Ningbo Ronbay has started shipping ultra-high nickel NCM precursors from its Chungju, South Korea plant. The product contains a minimum of 90pc nickel and targets global battery makers. Current NCM precursor capacity totals 66,000 t/yr — 60,000 t/yr in China and 6,000 t/yr in South Korea.

South Korea’s extensive free trade agreements offer Ronbay significant advantages in bypassing rising trade barriers. The company expects these shipments to strengthen ties with clients in Japan, South Korea, Europe, the US, and Southeast Asia, especially amid the US Inflation Reduction Act and EU Critical Material Act.

Capacity Growth and Recycling Initiatives

Ronbay plans to expand South Korean NCM capacity to 26,000 t/yr and build a 20,000 t/yr plant in Indonesia by 2026. Competitors CNGR, Huayou Cobalt, and GEM are also investing in precursor facilities overseas to mitigate trade restrictions.

The company will launch a global battery recycling system in 2027, with plants in the US, Europe, Japan, and Southeast Asia. This network will process black powder from waste batteries into high-purity precursor materials, though capacity figures remain undisclosed.

Ronbay produced 137,351 t of CAM in 2024, up 34pc year-on-year. NCM accounted for around 120,000 t of sales, while LMFP was added to its portfolio in 2022 through the acquisition of Tianjin Skylandone. The firm targets 130,000–150,000 t of CAM production in 2025, and is building a 20,000 t/yr NCM plant in Poland, with the first phase due this year.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ronbay’s move to produce high-nickel NCM precursors in South Korea is a calculated response to geopolitical trade pressures. By leveraging South Korea’s trade agreements and diversifying production locations, the firm is securing market access in key EV regions. This multi-pronged strategy — combining capacity expansion with recycling — positions Ronbay strongly in the global energy transition supply chain.

Gotion Foresees Lithium-Iron-Phosphate Batteries Dominating Global EV Market

In a significant shift for the electric vehicle (EV) industry, Gotion, a leading Chinese battery manufacturer, predicts that lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) and lithium-manganese-iron-phosphate (LMFP) battery chemistries will dominate the global EV battery market within the next two to five years. Speaking at the ASEAN Battery Technology Conference in Singapore on August 21, Gotion's Asia-Pacific president, Cheng Qian, projected that these battery types could account for nearly 70 percent of the global market share, with the remainder being held by nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries.

Qian emphasized that LFP battery technology is poised to take over the entire energy storage system sector, surpassing even the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast of 80 percent dominance. He attributed this trend to advancements in LFP battery range and the increasing demand for faster charging capabilities among EV consumers. NCM batteries, he noted, would be relegated to use in high-performance and ultra-long-range vehicles.

The transition has already begun to impact the nickel market and is gaining momentum among South Korean battery manufacturers. These companies are anticipating strong demand for more affordable EVs, driven by the cost-effectiveness of LFP batteries. Samsung SDI and SK On, for instance, are preparing to launch mass production of LFP batteries by 2026.

Adding to this momentum, LG Energy Solution (LGES) recently secured a contract to supply 39GWh of LFP batteries to Renault's EV division, Ampere, from its largest battery plant in Europe for the period 2025-2030. LGES is also planning to shift to LFP batteries for a U.S. energy storage project after initially supplying NCM batteries.

Expansion into Two-Wheeler Market

Gotion also predicts a significant shift toward LFP and LMFP batteries in the global two-wheeler EV market, which has been predominantly powered by NCM batteries. Cost reductions will be crucial for major two-wheeler markets in the Asia-Pacific region, including India, Indonesia, and Thailand, Qian noted.

India, which experienced a 30 percent surge in two-wheeler EV sales during its fiscal year 2023-24, reaching a record high of 944,126 units, is poised for further growth. Indonesia is similarly ambitious, aiming to deploy 2 million electric motorcycles by 2025, escalating to 13 million by 2030. The nation has introduced a $458 million subsidy program to incentivize electric motorcycle adoption.

The Philippines has also outlined its EV roadmap, emphasizing the lower upfront costs of electric tricycles and motorcycles as key drivers for EV adoption. The country aims to achieve a 50 percent share of electric motorcycles and tricycles by 2030, increasing to 60 percent by 2040.

China Nickel Sulphate Market Holds Firm Amid Supply Tightness and Weak NCM Demand

Nickel Sulphate

China nickel sulphate prices have remained stable for over a month due to constrained supply and sluggish demand from the NCM battery sector. Despite declining output and elevated feedstock costs, producers have resisted lowering prices to protect margins. The China nickel sulphate market is now facing a complex supply-demand imbalance shaped by both upstream disruptions and shifting downstream preferences.

Feedstock Supply Disruptions Tighten Production Margins

Nickel sulphate output in April dropped to 30,000 tonnes (nickel metal equivalent), down 13% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year. Cumulative output for January–April stood at 127,000 tonnes, 1.6% lower than the previous year, according to CNIA data. This production cut stems from limited availability of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) and nickel matte, both critical inputs for sulphate production. Heavy rainfall in Morowali, Indonesia, disrupted MHP production in March and April, reducing output by 5,500 tonnes. At the same time, matte producers in China shifted to more profitable nickel pig iron (NPI), reducing matte availability. Consequently, the payable indicators for MHP and matte rose significantly, eroding margins and compelling some plants—like those in Guangxi—to convert from matte to MHP feedstock. These factors have kept the China nickel sulphate market tight despite weak demand.

NCM Battery Demand Shrinks as LFP Dominance Grows

While supply tightens, demand has faltered. NCM and NCA batteries, once dominant, have lost significant market share to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistries. As of April, NCM batteries accounted for just 20% of China’s battery output, while NCA stood at 17%, down from a combined 65% in 2019. This shift has impacted upstream nickel demand, causing several international projects to stall. In recent months, Eramet and BASF withdrew from their Weda Bay refining JV, and Hanrui Cobalt cancelled its MHP investment in Indonesia. Meanwhile, automakers like Volkswagen are pivoting toward LFP technology to cut costs. Demand for NCM batteries is expected to remain weak through Q2 2024, with some exporters front-loading shipments earlier in the year due to global trade tensions. As a result, the China nickel sulphate market remains under pressure, with producers navigating tight margins amid uncertain downstream growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China’s nickel sulphate market exemplifies the structural turbulence within the EV battery supply chain. As feedstock constraints collide with weakening demand for NCM chemistries, producers must brace for lower growth visibility and rising volatility across Asia’s nickel value chain.

GEM Expands NCM Precursor Capacity in Indonesia to Meet Growing Global Demand

Green Eco-Manufacture (GEM)

Green Eco-Manufacture (GEM), a leading Chinese producer of battery metals and materials, has announced plans to significantly expand its nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) precursor production capacity in Morowali, Indonesia. This strategic move aims to capitalize on the surging demand for high-nickel ternary precursor materials used in power batteries, particularly in overseas markets like the US and Europe.

Capacity Boost and Strategic Integration

GEM's expansion project will increase its NCM precursor capacity to an impressive 50,000 tonnes per year, a substantial jump from the initially planned 30,000 tonnes per year.  The entire project, with a total investment of 2.15 billion yuan ($294 million), is slated for completion in October. This increased capacity will enable GEM to better serve the growing needs of the electric vehicle (EV) market.

GEM's strategy involves developing its existing facilities in both Indonesia and South Korea to create a vertically integrated industrial value chain. This chain will span from nickel feedstock to precursor materials and ultimately to cathode active material (CAM), thereby strengthening GEM's competitive edge and solidifying its market position in the US and Europe.  This integrated approach will allow GEM to control its supply chain and ensure a stable supply of high-quality materials.

Meeting the Needs of Battery Manufacturers

This expansion comes as GEM recently secured a significant supply agreement with South Korean battery maker EcoPro. In August 2024, the two companies signed a deal for GEM to supply 265,000 tonnes of high-nickel NCM precursors to EcoPro BM, EcoPro's subsidiary specializing in high-nickel power battery ternary CAM for new energy vehicles, between 2025 and 2028.  

Further strengthening their partnership, EcoPro announced plans to collaborate with GEM in the first quarter of the year to establish an integrated production facility in Indonesia, encompassing activities from smelting to CAM production.  EcoPro is also restructuring its operations, planning to merge its battery recycling unit Ecopro CNG and lithium unit Ecopro Innovation.

Weak NCM Demand Restrains Nickel Consumption Growth in China

Lygend

China’s nickel consumption growth has been constrained this year, primarily due to weak demand in the nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) cathode active material (CAM) sector and the increasing market dominance of lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) CAM.

NEV Battery Market Trends

Despite a 37% year-on-year increase in China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) battery production from January to September, NCM battery growth lagged at 19.2%, while LFP surged by 45.6%, according to the China Innovative Alliance of Automotive Battery Industry.

• NCM precursor output grew by 4%.
• NCM CAM production rose by 10%, highlighting a slower growth trend compared to downstream NEV battery production.
• Nickel sulphate output is projected to decline by 1%, even though total supply is expected to rise by 6% due to increased imports.

The discrepancy in growth rates between upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors is expected to stabilize next year as inventories decline and buying interest increases.

Rising Imports of MHP and Matte

China’s imports of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) and matte, key feedstocks for nickel sulphate and class I nickel production, have risen sharply:

• MHP Imports: Up 17% to 1.07 million tons during January-September, with Indonesia accounting for 57% growth due to increased capacity from Chinese companies such as Lygend’s ONC, GEM’s QMB project, and Huayou’s Huafei facility.
• Matte Imports: Increased by 61% to 341,494 tons, driven by the ramp-up in new capacities.

Transition in Nickel Matte Production

A significant portion of the matte imports consists of low-grade matte (20% nickel content), which is further refined into high-grade matte (70% nickel content) in China for nickel sulphate or cathode production. However, some matte producers have shifted focus to producing nickel pig iron (NPI) due to its higher profit margins.

Nickel Metal Output Outlook

While nickel sulphate production is forecast to dip, China’s overall nickel metal output is expected to surge by 34%, reaching 320,000 tons in 2024. This increase underscores the country’s reliance on imported feedstocks and growing domestic capacity to meet demand.

Future Prospects

As inventories dwindle and buying interest rebounds, 2024 is likely to see a narrowing of growth disparities across the supply chain. However, China’s nickel market remains under pressure from fluctuating demand patterns, shifts in feedstock sourcing, and competition between NCM and LFP technologies.

China's Easpring Boosts Battery CAM Output Amid Rising NEV Demand

Chinese lithium-ion battery cathode active material (CAM) manufacturer, Beijing Easpring, has reported a significant increase in production for the first half of 2024. The surge is attributed to the growing demand from the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry. Easpring's total CAM output rose by 24% year-on-year, reaching 35,955 tons, driven by the increasing adoption of NEVs in China.

Among the output, 20,902 tons were lithium nickel-cobalt-manganese oxide (NCM), 1,755 tons were lithium cobalt oxide (LCO), and 13,298 tons were lithium (manganese) iron phosphate. The company's growth aligns with China’s accelerated shift from internal combustion engine vehicles to NEVs, which now hold over 40% of the domestic market share. This transition has propelled China’s lithium-ion battery shipments to 459GWh in the first half of the year, reflecting a 21% year-on-year increase.

To support this growth, Easpring and Sichuan Shudao New Material Technology established a joint venture, Easpring Shudao (Panzhihua) New Material, in 2022. The joint venture is constructing a large-scale CAM production complex in Panzhihua city, Sichuan province, with a total annual capacity of 300,000 tons. This includes the first phase of 120,000 tons per year for lithium (manganese) iron phosphate and an additional 200,000 tons per year for NCM. Production of lithium (manganese) iron phosphate commenced in the first half of 2024, though details about other phases of the project remain undisclosed.

Additionally, Easpring expanded its global presence by partnering with Finnish Minerals and South Korean battery producer SK in November 2021 to establish a European CAM joint facility. This made Easpring the first Chinese CAM manufacturer to set up a nickel-cobalt-manganese plant in Europe, solidifying its position in the global market.

Easpring’s main products, NCM and LCO, are supplied to major battery manufacturers including SK On, Samsung SDI, LG, Murata, EVE Energy, BatteroTech, and Yichun Qingtao Energy Technology.

LGES–KIM LONG NCM battery MoU signals Vietnam’s EV supply-chain push

KIM LONG

South Korea’s LG Energy Solution and Vietnam’s Kim Long Motor signed the LGES–Kim Long NCM battery MoU. The LGES–Kim Long NCM battery MoU covers supply of NCM cylindrical cells for local pack assembly. The LGES–Kim Long NCM battery MoU positions Hue as a new battery hub.

Kim Long will start its Hue battery complex in early 2026. The initial capacity is 1GWh per year. The company plans staged expansions to meet regional demand.

Vietnam’s policy tailwinds strengthen this pact. The government targets 100% urban buses as electric by 2030. It plans to end fossil-fuel vehicle production and imports by 2040.

Early capacity, regional demand, and bus orders

The Hue project launches with 1GWh annual output. Local pack assembly reduces logistics costs and lead times. It also builds workforce skills and supplier depth.

Downstream demand already forms. Thailand’s Cho Thavee plans to purchase 3,000 buses per year. That pipeline can anchor initial volumes and scale.

NCM cylindrical cells fit fleet needs. They offer energy density for range and duty cycles. They also align with established pack formats and service models.

Policy roadmap and localization advantages

Vietnam’s green transport roadmap sets clear EV milestones. Urban vehicles move to 50% electric by 2030. Urban buses and taxis target 100% by 2030. Localization reduces currency and tariff risks. It encourages vendor clustering in electrodes and foils. It also enables faster homologation for ASEAN fleets.

As a result, Vietnam can expand upstream inputs over time. Anode, cathode, and separator suppliers may co-locate. Recycling capacity can follow to close loops.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The MoU gives Vietnam a credible battery beachhead. Early 1GWh capacity, bus demand, and policy goals align. Watch cell format choices, raw-material sourcing, and recycling plans for margin security.

Minmetals New Energy Secures Nickel Supply Through Strategic Investment in Jinchuan Nickel and Cobalt

Minmetals New Energy

In a strategic move to secure a steady supply of essential nickel raw materials, China's Minmetals New Energy (MNE) has committed to investing 500 million yuan ($69 million) in Jinchuan Nickel and Cobalt (JNC). This investment will support MNE’s growing production needs in a rapidly evolving battery materials market.

Investment Details and Supply Agreement

MNE will acquire newly issued equities in JNC, a subsidiary of the major diversified metals producer, Jinchuan Group, as announced on December 11. The exact number of shares acquired remains undisclosed. Under the terms of the agreement, JNC will supply MNE with at least 200 tons per month, but no more than 12,000 tons per year, of nickel metal equivalent in nickel sulphate form.

Expanding Capacities and Market Impact

MNE, based in Changshan, Hunan province, boasts a significant production capacity that includes 120,000 tons per year of nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM), 60,000 tons per year of lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP), 30,000 tons per year of NCM precursor, and 5,000 tons per year in waste battery recycling. The company reported a substantial increase in its LFP product shipments from June to September, with approximately 6,000 tons shipped, marking a significant rise from the previous quarter.

Jinchuan Group has been enhancing its production capacities to meet the burgeoning demand for battery materials. It initiated production at its nickel salts facility in 2018 with a capacity of 100,000 tons per year and expanded by an additional 100,000 tons in 2022. Furthermore, Jinchuan is constructing another nickel sulphate plant in Gansu province, anticipated to eventually contribute an additional 280,000 tons per year to its total output, reinforcing its position as a pivotal player in the nickel market.

Chinese Cobalt Prices Expected to Decline Further in 2025 Amid Rising Supply and Weak Demand

Chinese Cobalt Manufacturing

Oversupply and Weak Demand to Push Cobalt Prices Lower

The Chinese cobalt market is set to experience further price declines in 2025, as increasing nickel and copper production, from which cobalt is a by-product, leads to an oversupply that buyers are struggling to absorb.

Currently, Chinese-origin cobalt metal traded in Europe has already seen significant pressure due to a lack of floor pricing on raw materials, a trend expected to persist into the new year. Market insiders suggest that cobalt prices could drop below $9/lb, as fully integrated Chinese producers view cobalt as a credit to their primary metal production, particularly nickel and copper.

For these refiners, cobalt is a secondary concern. As one trading firm explained, some Chinese producers operate with production costs as low as $4,000 per ton while selling at $9,000 per ton. Even if they incur a $50 million loss on cobalt, they may still profit significantly from copper production, which can generate up to $700 million in gains.

Chinese Refiners Likely to Continue Production at a Loss

Unlike non-Chinese refiners, which may curtail supply if cobalt prices fall below $9/lb, some Chinese integrated mining firms and refiners could continue refining hydroxide into metal at a loss-making $7-8/lb.

While there is speculation that some Chinese metal producers may attempt to negotiate floor prices in their contracts, it remains uncertain whether these efforts will succeed. Market participants are closely watching how these negotiations unfold, as they could provide some level of price support if successful.

Global Nickel and Copper Growth to Sustain Cobalt Oversupply

The primary factor driving cobalt’s oversupply is the continued expansion of nickel and copper production, as cobalt is a by-product of both metals.

• Nickel production is set to rise again in 2025 with the launch of new Class 1 nickel refineries in China and Indonesia. This will likely keep London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month official nickel prices within the $15,000-17,000 per ton range, significantly lower than the $30,000 per ton peak in early 2023.

• Copper production is also projected to increase due to expansions at mines such as Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Although cobalt sales represent only a minor portion of copper mining revenues, producers still aim to extract value from it as a credit.

Weakened Demand from EV and Chemicals Sectors Further Pressures Prices

While cobalt demand in China has surged by 40%, this has not been enough to counteract weakening demand in other regions, particularly in Europe:

• The electric vehicle (EV) sector in Europe has slowed down, leading to reduced demand for cathode active materials like cobalt.

• The European chemicals industry, particularly in Germany, has struggled due to rising energy costs and broader economic challenges.

Even if prices do increase, China has ample spare refining capacity and could use third-party tolling arrangements to process hydroxide into metal, further maintaining downward price pressure.

Peak Oversupply May Be Near, But Price Recovery Remains Uncertain

Some market participants believe that cobalt hydroxide oversupply may have already peaked. The shift towards lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which do not use cobalt, has significantly impacted the demand for nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery chemistries, leading to lower demand for cobalt sulfate and cobalt hydroxide.

However, despite this potential supply peak, weak demand across key industrial sectors suggests that cobalt prices are unlikely to see a strong recovery in the near term.

Conclusion

In 2025, Chinese cobalt prices are expected to remain under pressure due to rising nickel and copper production, ongoing oversupply, and weak demand from the European EV and chemicals sectors. While some believe that the cobalt market may be nearing peak oversupply, prices are unlikely to experience significant upward momentum unless demand rebounds sharply or supply reductions occur.

Battery Metals Demand Faces Slower Path as Hybrid Vehicle Growth Extends

Battery Metals

Battery metals demand could face a slower growth path as carmakers and suppliers expect hybrids and range extenders to remain important for longer than earlier electric-only transition models assumed. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car summit said vehicle decarbonisation should be measured by emissions reduction, not only battery electric vehicle share.

Battery metals demand remains structurally supported by electrification. However, a longer hybrid phase could reduce near-term demand intensity for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese because hybrid vehicles use smaller battery packs than full battery electric vehicles.

Battery metals demand assumptions are therefore becoming more complex. Automotive electrification is still progressing, but the industry is moving toward a mixed powertrain future rather than a simple shift from combustion engines to full BEVs.

Horse Powertrain chief executive Matias Giannini said half of passenger vehicles could still be produced with some form of combustion or hybrid powertrain by 2040. That outlook would keep investment flowing into efficient hybrid systems alongside EV platforms.

Hybrid Growth Changes the Battery Raw Materials Curve

Hybrid vehicle growth could temper the pace of battery raw material demand without reversing electrification. Hybrids and range extenders still require electric motors, inverters, wiring and batteries, but their battery packs are much smaller than those used in BEVs.

This matters most for nickel. High-nickel NCM and NCA batteries are closely tied to longer-range BEVs, where larger packs are needed to deliver performance and driving range.

A slower BEV ramp-up could delay some of the nickel sulphate demand growth that has supported investment cases for new battery-grade nickel projects. It could also affect cobalt and manganese demand in cathode chemistries exposed to full EV penetration rates.

Lithium remains supported across almost every electrification pathway. Still, a longer hybrid transition could slow the rate at which large-format BEV batteries absorb lithium units.

The shift does not mean automotive metals demand will weaken across the board. Hybrids use more copper than conventional combustion vehicles because they require electric motors, power electronics and more complex wiring systems.

Continued hybrid and combustion production also supports aluminium castings, stainless steel, exhaust components and engine-related materials. Meanwhile, BEV growth still supports aluminium lightweighting, copper wiring, charging infrastructure and battery materials.

The result is a less linear automotive metals outlook. Battery metals may grow more slowly than aggressive BEV scenarios suggest, while broader automotive metals consumption remains supported by platform complexity and mixed powertrain production.

Policy Flexibility Could Reshape European Metal Demand

European suppliers are pushing for more flexibility in the EU regulatory framework. Current policy remains heavily weighted toward full electrification through tailpipe emissions targets.

The EU targets a 100% reduction in tailpipe emissions from new cars and vans from 2035. That effectively ends new combustion engine sales unless future exemptions are created.

Industry participants increasingly want a more technology-neutral route. They argue that hybrids, range extenders, renewable fuels and lower-carbon manufacturing should contribute to emissions reduction alongside BEVs.

This policy debate matters for metals. Battery material demand depends heavily on BEV penetration, average pack size and chemistry choice.

If Europe allows a longer role for hybrids and range extenders, lithium-ion battery capacity demand per vehicle could grow more slowly. That would affect demand forecasts for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese.

Chinese EV and hybrid technology is also improving quickly. This puts pressure on European and US automakers to share development costs across BEV, hybrid and range-extender platforms.

For suppliers, the strategic issue is flexibility. Companies tied only to high-growth BEV battery assumptions may face demand timing risk, while suppliers serving copper, aluminium, stainless steel, electronics and hybrid systems may benefit from a broader platform mix.

The automotive transition is still real, but the material demand path is becoming more diversified. Metals markets must now track powertrain mix, not only EV sales headlines.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hybrid growth does not weaken the energy transition, but it changes the metals timing. Battery metals demand will still rise, yet copper, aluminium and hybrid-related materials may capture more value if automakers choose a longer mixed-powertrain route.

Ronbay Increases Battery CAM Output and Sales on EV Demand Surge

Ronbay

Ronbay Expands Global Cathode Material Output in 2024

Chinese battery materials manufacturer Ronbay significantly boosted battery cathode active material (CAM) output and sales in 2024. The company produced 137,351 tonnes of CAM, a 34% increase year-on-year, driven by strong electric vehicle (EV) sector demand.

CAM sales reached 121,688 tonnes, up 16%, including 120,000 tonnes of NCM (nickel-cobalt-manganese oxide). Ronbay is the world’s largest NCM producer, holding 12% of global market share, according to industry data.

Diversification and Global Expansion Underway

Ronbay also produces LMFP and sodium-ion CAM, expanding its portfolio after acquiring Tianjin Skylandone in 2022. The firm’s total CAM capacity reached 200,000 t/yr by the end of 2023, with facilities across China and South Korea.

The company is constructing a 40,000 t/yr NCM plant in South Korea, set to begin trial production in the first half of 2025. It is also building a 20,000 t/yr NCM facility in Poland and establishing operations in the US to serve growing Western battery markets.

EV Sector Growth Fuels CAM Demand

China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) production and sales both grew by over 34% in 2024, CAAM reported. This growth reinforced Ronbay’s strong CAM performance and supported its aggressive expansion strategy.

Ronbay aims to produce 130,000–150,000 tonnes of CAM in 2025, targeting both domestic and global battery manufacturers.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Ronbay’s expansion reflects a clear upstream strategy to meet diversified battery chemistries and regionalized supply needs. As NEV markets boom, the globalization of CAM production will be a defining trend in battery materials over the next decade.

Firebird Metals Builds First LMFP Battery in China Development Push

Firebird Metals

Australian Firm Partners with Chinese University to Test Lithium Manganese Iron Phosphate Technology

Firebird Metals, an Australian battery materials company, has successfully built a lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) battery in China, marking a significant step in its ongoing development program.

The company is conducting these tests in partnership with Central South University in Hunan province, making it one of the first Australian firms to assemble an LMFP battery abroad.

Firebird has begun testing 100 batches of battery metal formulations, with the goal of converting them into fully functional LMFP batteries. As of March 4, the firm has tested five batches, and several of them have already yielded working battery cells, according to its investor update.

Potential for LMFP Capacity Expansion at China Hub

Depending on the results of its full test campaign, Firebird may expand its Chinese battery hub to reach 1 tonne/day of LMFP capacity. The company aims to leverage China’s supply chain efficiency and academic R&D to accelerate commercial battery-grade material production.

Firebird is not alone in the LMFP race. Livium, a battery recycler, produced LMFP battery cells in 2020 at a Brisbane pilot plant. In China, Ningbo Rombay, a leading domestic manufacturer, operates at a scale of 10,000 tonnes per year, positioning itself as a dominant LMFP supplier.

Meanwhile, manganese sulphate prices, a key input for LMFP, have shown notable volatility. According to SUPERMETALPRICE, battery-grade manganese sulphate (≥32% Mn) ex-works pricing climbed from $660/t in February 2024 to $861/t in June, before retreating to $820/t by late February 2025. Prices remain well below the March 2022 peak of $1,671/t, reflecting ongoing market correction and oversupply dynamics.

Firebird’s pilot results could play a critical role in defining Australia’s foothold in low-cost, thermally stable LMFP battery chemistry, widely viewed as a viable alternative to LFP and NCM chemistries in energy storage and e-mobility applications.

Ronbay's Rising Battery Sales Driven by EV Demand

Ningbo Ronbay, a leading Chinese manufacturer of battery cathode active materials (CAM), reported a significant increase in sales during the first half of 2024, fueled by the growing demand in the electric vehicle (EV) sector. The company saw its CAM sales rise by 18% year-on-year, totaling 54,900 tonnes from January to June. The majority of these sales were in lithium-nickel-cobalt-manganese oxide (NCM), with 52,700 tonnes sold, while the remaining 2,200 tonnes consisted of other CAMs such as lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP).

Ronbay has diversified its product range since acquiring Tianjin Skylandone in 2022, which allowed it to add LMFP to its portfolio. This move has paid off, with LMFP shipments surging by 166% in the first half of the year, although specific volumes were not disclosed. The company also made strides in the solid-state battery market, delivering nearly 100 tonnes of 9 series solid-state battery CAM in the first quarter of 2024.

To support its growth, Ronbay has expanded its total cathode material production capacity to 200,000 tonnes per year, with significant investments in both China and South Korea. The company is actively advancing the second phase of its South Korean project, which includes the construction of a 40,000 t/yr NCM production line and a 20,000 t/yr LMFP line. Ronbay is also planning an 80,000 t/yr NCM precursor plant in South Korea and has established production facilities across various Chinese cities.

Looking ahead, Ronbay is eyeing expansion into the European and U.S. battery markets, with potential production bases in Poland and newly established subsidiaries in the U.S. This global expansion aligns with the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market, which saw a 32% increase in production and sales during the first half of the year, reaching 4.944 million units.

XTC GEM CAM feedstock deal tightens China’s battery materials supply chain

XTC

XTC GEM CAM feedstock deal marks a major step in securing China’s high-end battery materials supply. Under the XTC GEM CAM feedstock deal, XTC New Energy will lock in large volumes of cobalt, nickel and lithium inputs. This XTC GEM CAM feedstock deal supports long-term cathode active material output for NCM, LCO and LFP product lines. As a result, Chinese battery makers gain greater visibility on costs and availability during a volatile raw material cycle.

Long-term CAM feedstock deal anchors XTC’s growth strategy

XTC New Energy agreed to purchase 150,000 t/yr of CAM feedstock from GEM between 2026 and 2028. The package covers cobalt chloride, nickel sulfate, cobalt tetroxide, NCM precursor and lithium salts for large-scale cathode production. This diversified basket reduces single-material risk and helps XTC balance different chemistries across consumer and power batteries. The deal also deepens an existing partnership, signalling confidence in GEM’s ability to deliver consistent quality volumes. Consequently, both companies move closer to a vertically aligned, closed-loop battery materials ecosystem.

XTC has rapidly grown sales of lithium cobalt oxide on the back of device replacement cycles and AI-enabled electronics. Government subsidies that push consumers to upgrade phones and tablets are boosting high-end cobalt-rich cathode demand. Meanwhile, combined sales of NCM and LFP cathodes also rose, reflecting broader growth across energy storage and EV platforms. By locking in feedstock now, XTC can support more aggressive volume and product planning with key OEMs.

China CAM feedstock integration deepens links with global battery OEMs

The agreement reinforces China’s position at the centre of the global CAM and precursor value chain. GEM will channel critical precursors to XTC, which already supplies ATL, Samsung SDI, Murata, LG Chem and BYD. These relationships span mid to high-end consumer devices and extend into power lithium battery producers like CALB and CATL. Therefore, the enhanced feedstock pipeline will indirectly underpin cell production for phones, tablets, EVs and stationary storage worldwide.

Tighter integration between feedstock suppliers and cathode producers can also stabilise pricing and contract structures. Long-term supply deals encourage joint planning on capacity, quality and sustainability metrics, important for global OEM qualification. At the same time, dependence on Chinese CAM feedstock raises questions for western policymakers about diversification and supply security. However, until alternative precursor hubs reach scale, China’s integrated CAM ecosystem will remain a critical anchor for lithium-ion supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This agreement shows how Chinese CAM producers and recyclers are quietly locking in the next wave of battery growth. As XTC and GEM align on volumes and chemistries, their joint leverage over cobalt, nickel and lithium flows will rise. For non-Chinese OEMs, the deal underscores the urgency of building competitive precursor and CAM capacity outside China.

China’s GEM to Back Indonesia’s Green Nickel with HPAL Investment

Green Eco-Manufacture (GEM)

Chinese battery metals leader Green Eco-Manufacture (GEM) has entered into a groundbreaking partnership with Indonesia's PT Vale Indonesia (PTVI) to develop a high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) project in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. This venture aims to bolster the green energy transition in the nickel sector, a vital component of the rapidly expanding electric vehicle (EV) industry.

Key Highlights of the HPAL Project

The HPAL facility will process nickel ore supplied by PTVI to produce 66,000 tons per year (t/yr) of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) in nickel metal equivalent. MHP is a precursor for advanced battery materials like nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) and cathode active materials (CAM), essential for lithium-ion batteries used in EVs.

Ownership Dynamics and Strategic Growth

Initially, GEM held a 70% stake in the project, while PTVI owned the remaining 30%. However, GEM’s ownership will be reduced to 25% or less, as additional third-party investors join the initiative. This strategic realignment aims to diversify financial backing and enhance the project’s scalability.

Expansion of GEM’s Nickel Ventures

GEM recently completed the second phase of its QMB nickel project in Morowali, Indonesia, achieving a total production capacity of 65,000 t/yr of nickel metal equivalent in MHP. This marks a significant milestone in its push to solidify its footprint in Indonesia’s resource-rich battery ecosystem.

China-Indonesia Collaboration in the EV Sector

The partnership reflects a broader trend of increasing China-Indonesia collaboration in the EV supply chain. Earlier this year, Indonesian mining giant PT Aneka Tambang (Antam) transferred subsidiary shares to China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL), the world’s largest EV battery manufacturer.

As the global EV market continues to expand, these collaborations are poised to make Indonesia a cornerstone of the world’s green energy revolution, leveraging its abundant nickel reserves to meet soaring demand for sustainable battery materials.

Ronbay sodium-ion battery cathode project breaks ground in Hubei

Ronbay

Ronbay sodium-ion battery cathode project construction has started in Hubei today. The 6,000 t per year line represents a 1.2bn yuan investment. However, the company has not disclosed a commissioning date.

Ronbay sodium-ion battery cathode project expands a diversified CAM portfolio. The firm already produces NCM, LMFP, and sodium-ion CAM. Meanwhile, high-nickel NCM remains the company’s core product.

Capacity roadmap and demand outlook

Output reached 137,351 t in 2024, up 34% year on year. Ronbay plans 130,000–150,000 t of CAM in 2025. In 2023, it committed 3bn yuan for 50,000 t per year by 2026.

The company booked a 3,000 t sodium-ion cathode order this year. Global sodium-ion demand may reach 23 GWh in 2025. As a result, two- and three-wheelers and storage will drive early volumes.

Commercial implications for sodium-ion batteries

Sodium-ion batteries promise cost and safety advantages versus LMFP. Resource abundance lowers raw-material risk and improves scalability. Therefore, the Ronbay sodium-ion battery cathode project targets mass-market applications.

Hubei offers logistics access and supplier depth for scale-up. However, customer qualification and procurement cycles may slow adoption. Consequently, initial shipments should concentrate on mobility and stationary storage.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Ronbay sodium-ion battery cathode project signals prudent hedging beyond lithium-based chemistries. Execution will hinge on qualification wins, cost curves, and timely ramp at both 6,000 t and 50,000 t assets.

China's GEM Increases Battery Material Sales in 1H

Sales Surge Driven by Full Capacity

Green Eco-Manufacture (GEM), a leading Chinese cobalt refiner and lithium cathode active material (CAM) precursor producer, reported a significant increase in sales of CAM precursors, cobalt, and nickel for the first half of the year. The company attributed this rise to full capacity operations across its main product lines.

GEM's sales of ternary precursors, including lithium nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) and lithium nickel-cobalt-aluminium (NCA), surged by 45% year-on-year to exceed 100,000 tons. The firm also experienced a remarkable 133% increase in ternary CAM sales, reaching 7,119 tons.

Expansion and Strategic Partnerships

In August, GEM secured a supply agreement with South Korean lithium-ion battery CAM manufacturer Ecopro for 265,000 tons of ternary precursors from 2025 to 2028. The company is also expanding its production capabilities, with a new 50,000 tons per year ternary precursor plant in Indonesia set to start operations in the latter half of this year.

GEM's cobalt tetroxide sales soared by 163% year-on-year to 10,500 tons, driven by higher demand from the consumer electronics sector. The company sources cobalt from long-term contracts with Switzerland-based Glencore and from its mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) projects in Indonesia.

Nickel Production and Cost Reduction Goals

GEM's nickel MHP shipments from its QMB project in Indonesia doubled to over 20,000 tons nickel metal equivalent during January-June, with a full capacity rate. The firm plans to expand its nickel smelting capacity to 150,000 tons per year by year-end and aims to ship 60,000 tons of MHP in 2024. GEM also targets reducing MHP smelting costs to $7,500 per ton by the end of the year, benefiting from decreased sulfuric acid costs.

The company is involved in recycling power batteries, cobalt, nickel, and tungsten scrap, with recycled cobalt shipments reaching 8,987 tons and power battery recycling up by 37% to 16,300 tons or 1.84 GWh in the first half of the year.

GEM serves a global client base, including South Korean firms like Ecopro, Samsung SDI, SK On, and LGC, Chinese companies such as XTC New Energy Materials and BYD, as well as international entities like Umicore, Sandvik, and Kennametal.

Posco Future M begins cathode exports to US

Posco Future M

Posco Future M begins cathode exports to US as it ships high-nickel NCM-A materials to Ultium Cells. The move uses self-produced precursors and strengthens North American EV supply chains. As a result, Posco Future M begins cathode exports to US with IRA-aligned feedstock and full upstream integration. This milestone confirms scale, quality, and localization readiness as Posco Future M begins cathode exports to US.

What shipped, from where, and to whom

Posco Future M dispatched high-nickel cathodes made with in-house precursors. Ultium Cells will use them for EV battery production. The shipment followed completion of its 45,000 t/yr precursor plant in Gwangyang. The facility started on 10 June, with first cargo on 26 July. Precursors of nickel, cobalt, and manganese combine with lithium at the Gwangyang cathode plant. The company targets consistent quality and cost control through vertical integration.

Why this matters for US battery supply chains

The delivery supports GM’s Ultium platform with non-Chinese nickel inputs. Posco Group converts nickel into high-purity nickel sulfate for CAM. Meanwhile, Posco Pilbara Lithium Solution supplies lithium from Australian spodumene. Posco Lithium Solution complements this with Argentine brine supply. These sources enhance IRA compliance and traceability for US-bound batteries. OEMs gain reduced risk, shorter timelines, and improved procurement flexibility.

Capacity outlook and localization pathway

Posco Future M and GM are building Ultium CAM in Bécancour, Quebec. The 30,000 t/yr cathode plant targets completion in 2026. Therefore, initial exports bridge near-term demand before local output ramps. The model mixes offshore precursor strength with regional CAM finishing. This approach helps stabilize costs and meet regional content rules. It also diversifies North American cathode supply beyond LFP.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Posco’s integrated precursor-to-cathode chain is a competitive advantage. Expect tighter OEM-supplier ties as IRA rules harden and Ultium volumes scale. Watch Bécancour’s CAM launch; it will set North America’s high-nickel baseline.