South32 Gemco Manganese Exports Resume After Cyclone Megan Recovery

South32

South32 Gemco manganese exports restarted as the Australian metal producer shipped its first ore cargo since early 2024 from the Northern Territory mine. The South32 Gemco manganese exports resumption follows extensive recovery operations after Cyclone Megan damaged the export wharf and flooded mine areas in March 2024, forcing a four-month suspension that disrupted global manganese supply chains and affected key customers including GFG Alliance's Tasmania ferromanganese plant.

Production Recovery Targets Pre-Cyclone Output Levels

South32 Gemco manganese exports began with the loading of 56,606 tonnes aboard the Singapore-flagged Stenia Colossus on May 19th, bound for Tianjin, China according to marine analytics firm Kpler. A second shipment of 54,078 tonnes will depart on the Panamanian-flagged Loch Crinan on May 28th, demonstrating operational momentum recovery. These initial shipments mark the end of a 15-month export hiatus that severely impacted Australian manganese supply to Asian steel markets.

Meanwhile, South32 plans production ramping at Gemco's 6 million tonne annual nameplate capacity facility throughout the 2025-26 financial year. The company achieved 5.9 million tonnes production in 2022-23, the last complete year before Cyclone Megan disrupted operations. Northern Territory government projections indicate 5 million tonnes expected production over the coming year, though South32 has not released official 2025-26 guidance.

Customer Supply Chain Disruptions Highlight Market Dependencies

However, the extended Gemco shutdown created severe supply chain disruptions for downstream customers dependent on Australian manganese ore. GFG Alliance's Liberty Bell Bay ferromanganese plant in Tasmania moved to limited operations on May 19th due to manganese ore supply shortages. This operational reduction demonstrates the critical importance of Gemco's production for regional ferromanganese manufacturing capabilities.

Therefore, the export resumption addresses urgent supply needs across Asia-Pacific steel and ferroalloy markets that experienced significant manganese ore shortages during Gemco's closure. Chinese steel mills particularly depend on Australian manganese imports for steel production, making Gemco's recovery essential for regional supply chain stability. The mine's strategic location in Northern Territory provides efficient shipping access to major Asian industrial centers.

Infrastructure Recovery Enables Full Operational Restart

Furthermore, South32 completed extensive infrastructure repairs including export wharf reconstruction and comprehensive mine dewatering operations during January-March 2025. These recovery investments ensure sustainable long-term operations while improving resilience against future extreme weather events. The company's commitment to full production restoration demonstrates confidence in manganese market fundamentals and customer demand recovery.

As a result, Gemco's operational restart strengthens Australia's position as a critical manganese supplier to global steel industries while reducing supply chain vulnerabilities exposed during the extended shutdown. The successful recovery operations establish operational precedents for managing extreme weather impacts on mining infrastructure. Market participants welcome the supply restoration as global steel production continues recovering from pandemic-related disruptions.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The resumption of South32's Gemco manganese exports illustrates both the vulnerability of critical mineral supply chains to extreme weather events and the interconnected nature of global steel production networks. The 15-month disruption's impact on downstream ferromanganese producers like Liberty Bell Bay demonstrates how single-mine shutdowns can cascade through entire industrial sectors, highlighting the need for greater supply chain diversification and resilience planning in critical minerals markets.

South32 Manganese Ore Export Prices Fall as China Demand Weakens

South32 Manganese Ore

South32 manganese ore export prices to China have fallen for June shipments as weak alloy demand, ample port inventories and cautious buying pressure the import market. The Australian diversified metals producer lowered offers for both Australian and South African manganese ore, according to Chinese importers.

South32 manganese ore export prices for Australian 42% lumpy ore fell to $5.40/mtu cif China for June delivery. This was down by $0.50/mtu from May.

South32 also reduced its offer for South African 37% manganese ore to $5/mtu cif China. This was down by $0.40/mtu from the previous month.

South32 manganese ore export prices are an important signal for the wider manganese chain because China remains the largest global buyer of seaborne ore. When Chinese alloy plants slow purchases, overseas miners often need to adjust export offers to maintain sales momentum.

Chinese Alloy Weakness Cuts Restocking Appetite

Chinese importers have shown limited interest in restocking manganese ore because inventories remain sufficient and alloy prices are weakening. This has reduced spot buying urgency before the Labour Day holiday on 1-5 May.

Many alloy plants postponed ore feedstock purchases while waiting for clearer market direction after the holiday. This cautious behaviour has weakened the negotiating position of overseas ore suppliers.

The pressure is also visible in Chinese port prices. Australian 44-46% lumpy manganese ore fell to 43-47 yuan/mtu delivery ex quay on 28 April, down from 47-50 yuan/mtu on 31 March.

The decline shows that domestic buyers are not only resisting new import offers. They are also repricing available port material lower as downstream demand fails to improve.

Manganese ore demand is closely linked to ferro-manganese and silico-manganese production. These alloys are used in steelmaking, where manganese improves strength, deoxidation and performance.

When steel consumption slows, alloy plants reduce purchasing activity. This immediately affects ore demand because manganese alloy producers are the main consumers of imported ore.

Steel Demand Remains the Main Constraint

The deeper issue is weak steel demand in China. Slower economic growth and subdued construction activity have limited recovery in steel consumption, leaving alloy producers cautious about raw material buying.

Without a stronger steel recovery, manganese alloy prices are likely to remain under pressure. This limits the ability of alloy plants to pay higher ore prices, even when miners try to defend margins.

South32’s price cut also reflects wider seaborne competition. Mining firms outside China need to respond when Chinese buyers have enough stock and are unwilling to chase cargoes.

Australian high-grade lumpy ore usually commands stronger interest because of its quality and processing value. However, even higher-grade material can weaken when alloy margins are poor and port inventories are sufficient.

South African ore also remains exposed to Chinese demand swings. Lower-grade material can face sharper price pressure when buyers reduce procurement and focus only on immediate needs.

For the manganese market, the June price cut suggests that miners are prioritising volume discipline and customer access over holding elevated offers. The next price direction will depend on whether Chinese alloy plants return after the holiday with real restocking demand.

If steel demand remains weak, manganese ore prices could face further downside pressure. If alloy prices stabilise and inventories fall, importers may resume buying, but recovery is likely to be gradual.

The Metalnomist Commentary

South32’s price cut shows that the manganese market is being driven by demand absorption, not supply shortage. Until Chinese steel and alloy demand improves, seaborne manganese ore suppliers will remain exposed to cautious restocking and lower port prices.

South32 Gemco Manganese Operations Face Cyclone Narelle Supply Risk

South32, Gemco Manganese

South32 Gemco manganese operations are facing renewed weather-related disruption risk as Cyclone Narelle approaches Groote Eylandt in Australia’s Northern Territory. The company is moving non-essential personnel offsite while monitoring the incoming system with local emergency authorities.

The precautionary move comes as Cyclone Narelle is forecast to pass Groote Eylandt on Saturday afternoon. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology expects the cyclone to reach category three strength by that time, bringing stronger wind and rain conditions to the island.

South32 Gemco manganese operations are important to the seaborne manganese ore market because Gemco is a major source of high-grade Australian ore. Any operational disruption could affect supply flows into China, where manganese ore demand is closely tied to steel and alloy production.

Groote Eylandt Weather Risk Returns After Cyclone Megan Disruption

Groote Eylandt has already shown how severe weather can affect manganese supply. South32 paused mining operations at Gemco for four months in March 2024 because of Cyclone Megan, and manganese exports from the site only resumed in May 2025.

That history makes the latest cyclone warning more significant for the market. Even if the current action is only precautionary, buyers and traders will watch closely for any damage to mining, haulage, port infrastructure, or export schedules.

South32 plans to produce 3.2 million tonnes of manganese at Gemco in July 2025-June 2026. Maintaining that output will be important for stabilizing supply after the previous weather-related disruption.

Manganese Ore Market Watches China Demand and Australian Supply

South32 Gemco manganese operations also sit at an important point in the pricing cycle. The company raised its March-delivery Australian 43pc lumpy manganese ore cif China price by $0.10/mtu to $5.20/mtu in late January, citing expectations for stronger Chinese demand after the lunar new year holidays.

Cyclone-related uncertainty could add another layer of support if the market sees a risk to Australian export availability. Manganese ore is essential for steelmaking through ferro-manganese and silico-manganese production, so supply interruptions can quickly influence alloy raw material sentiment.

For now, the key issue is whether Cyclone Narelle causes only a short safety response or a broader operational setback. The market will focus on site access, port conditions, and South32’s ability to maintain shipment schedules after the weather system passes.

The Metalnomist Commentary

South32’s latest move shows that manganese supply risk is increasingly shaped by weather resilience as much as mine capacity. For steel-linked raw materials, reliable logistics from vulnerable export hubs can become a pricing factor overnight.

Element 25 Butcherbird Manganese Expansion Gains Funding for Battery Supply Chain

Element 25

Element 25 Butcherbird manganese expansion has moved forward after the Australian metals producer raised $18mn in equity to support the next phase of mine growth. The funding will help expand manganese concentrate output from the Butcherbird mine in Western Australia.

The project is expected to triple Butcherbird’s manganese concentrate production to 1.1mn t/yr from 365,000 t/yr. Full mechanical completion and commissioning are expected in the first quarter of 2027.

Element 25 Butcherbird manganese expansion is strategically important because the mine will supply feedstock for the company’s planned battery-grade manganese sulphate refinery in Louisiana. That project links Australian ore supply with US battery materials processing.

The expansion also strengthens Element 25’s role in the electric vehicle supply chain. The company already has offtake agreements with General Motors and Stellantis, giving the project direct exposure to automaker demand for non-China battery materials.

Butcherbird Expansion Builds Manganese Feedstock Scale

Western Australia’s state government approved the Butcherbird expansion in March 2025. The mine is expected to operate for at least 18 years, giving Element 25 a long-term feedstock platform.

The planned increase to 1.1mn t/yr of manganese concentrate would materially change the scale of the operation. Higher concentrate output should support downstream conversion into battery-grade manganese sulphate while also leaving room for sales into traditional steel markets.

Manganese remains a key steelmaking input because it improves strength and toughness. Element 25 plans to sell excess concentrate to steelmakers, creating a secondary demand channel outside batteries.

However, the main strategic value is in batteries. Manganese is increasingly important for lithium-ion battery chemistries as automakers seek lower-cost, more secure and less cobalt-dependent cathode materials.

Louisiana Refinery Links Australia to US Battery Materials Policy

Element 25’s manganese concentrate will mainly feed its battery-grade high-purity manganese sulphate monohydrate facility in Louisiana. The refinery is planned for 135,000 t/yr of production capacity.

The US government backed the Louisiana refinery with a $166mn grant in January last year. This support reflects Washington’s effort to build domestic processing capacity for battery materials and reduce reliance on China-controlled supply chains.

The Australian government also opened a A$50mn loan package in June to support the Butcherbird expansion. Together, the US and Australian support show how allied governments are trying to connect mining, refining and EV manufacturing supply chains.

Element 25 Butcherbird manganese expansion therefore fits a broader industrial strategy. Australia provides the resource base, while the US builds refining capacity closer to automakers and battery manufacturers.

The project’s success will depend on execution at both ends of the chain. Butcherbird must deliver concentrate at scale, while Louisiana must convert that material into battery-grade sulphate that meets customer specifications.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Element 25’s project shows how manganese is moving from a steelmaking material into a strategic battery supply input. The key challenge will be proving that mine expansion and US chemical refining can scale together on the timeline automakers require.

Australian Government Loan Supports Butcherbird Manganese Mine

Element 25

Butcherbird Manganese Mine Expansion Gains Federal Backing

The Australian government has approved a A$50mn ($32mn) loan package to support Element 25’s Butcherbird manganese mine expansion. The financing consists of a A$42.5mn debt facility and a A$7.5mn overdraft, enabling the company to triple annual concentrate output from 365,000 tonnes to 1.1mn tonnes.

Western Australia’s state government granted project approval in March, allowing Element 25 to target a 2026 production start. However, the company has yet to secure all required capital and continues discussions with potential partners. Element 25 may also raise funds through offtake agreements, royalty streams, and prepayment deals.

Strategic Supply for US and Global Markets

The Butcherbird manganese mine expansion will strengthen Element 25’s role in the global manganese supply chain. The company plans to channel concentrate to its planned 135,000 t/yr manganese sulphate monohydrate refinery in the US, with additional output directed toward steelmakers worldwide.

The US government has already backed Element 25’s refinery project with a $166mn grant, reflecting Washington’s strategy to reduce reliance on Chinese critical minerals supply. Automakers General Motors and Stellantis have also pledged to fund the refinery, ensuring long-term offtake for battery-grade manganese products essential for electric vehicles.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Element 25’s Butcherbird expansion underscores how financing frameworks are reshaping manganese supply chains. With strong support from both Australian and US governments, the project highlights the strategic importance of manganese for steelmaking and battery manufacturing. Partnerships with automakers further illustrate how downstream industries are actively securing upstream resources in the race toward electrification.

Bell Bay Manganese Smelter Sale Falters as Preferred Buyer Exits

Bell Bay

Bell Bay manganese smelter faces renewed uncertainty after Adroit Capital ended exclusive negotiations to acquire the 290,000 t/yr Tasmanian manganese alloy operation. The investment firm had led the preferred bidding consortium selected by administrator Ernst & Young.

Bell Bay manganese smelter has been offline since May 2025, when former owner GFG Alliance halted production because of feedstock shortages. The failed sale process now raises fresh questions over whether Australia's only manganese alloy smelter can return to operation.

Bell Bay manganese smelter remains strategically important because it produces ferro-manganese and silico-manganese used in steelmaking. A prolonged closure would increase Australia's dependence on imported manganese alloys.

The federal and Tasmanian governments have already provided A$9.6mn this year to maintain employee wages while the administration process continues.

Buyer Exit Deepens Restart Uncertainty

Adroit Capital was named preferred bidder last month, and Tasmania had expected the transaction to close by August.

The end of exclusive negotiations removes the clearest near-term path toward restarting the plant. Ernst & Young will now need to identify another buyer, restructure the sale process or consider alternative options for the asset.

The smelter's history already highlights the difficulty of maintaining manganese alloy production in Australia. GFG Alliance shut the operation after feedstock shortages disrupted production.

The Tasmanian government subsequently provided financing to support a restart, but GFG defaulted on that loan in January 2026. The asset then entered administration.

This sequence shows that ownership change alone may not solve Bell Bay's underlying problems. Any new operator will need reliable manganese ore supply, competitive electricity costs and sustainable alloy margins.

Those factors are especially important because manganese alloy smelting is highly energy intensive and exposed to volatility in both ore and power costs.

Australia Faces Greater Manganese Alloy Import Dependence

Bell Bay is Australia's only domestic producer of manganese alloys, giving the facility significance beyond its individual commercial performance.

Ferro-manganese and silico-manganese are essential deoxidising and alloying materials used in construction steel, rail products, automotive steel and other industrial applications.

If Bell Bay remains shut, Australian users will depend more heavily on imported alloys from overseas producers. That increases exposure to freight costs, trade disruption and international supply conditions.

The situation also creates a wider industrial policy problem. Australia has substantial mineral resources, but losing domestic alloy-processing capacity would weaken its ability to capture value further downstream.

Government support so far suggests policymakers recognise the strategic importance of preserving the asset. However, continued public funding cannot substitute indefinitely for a commercially viable operating model.

The next buyer will therefore need to solve the smelter's structural problems rather than simply acquire the facility at a lower price.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Adroit's exit shows that Bell Bay's challenge is deeper than finding a buyer. Australia must decide whether strategic manganese alloy capacity justifies the cost of solving feedstock, power and operating economics.

Liberty Bell Bay Manganese Smelter Sale Aims to Preserve Australia’s Alloy Capacity

Liberty

Liberty Bell Bay manganese smelter assets in Tasmania are set to be sold to a consortium led by investment firm Adroit Capital, giving Australia’s only manganese alloy producer a potential path out of administration. The 290,000 t/yr smelter is a strategic asset for steelmaking, defence and construction supply chains.

Liberty Bell Bay manganese smelter operations have been under pressure since the site was shut in May 2025 by its former owner, GFG Alliance, because of feedstock shortages and maintenance requirements. The smelter produces ferro-manganese and silico-manganese, both essential alloying materials for steel production.

Liberty Bell Bay manganese smelter continuity is important because Australia has limited domestic ferro-alloy capacity. Losing the site permanently would increase dependence on imported manganese alloys for steelmakers and industrial users.

The Australian federal and Tasmanian state governments have now committed A$5mn to cover staff salaries until early August while administrator Ernst & Young finalises the sale with Adroit. That follows A$4.6mn in earlier support during April-May, bringing total recent government support to A$9.6mn.

Government Support Buys Time for a Strategic Smelter

The government funding gives the administrator more time to complete the transaction while preserving workforce continuity. This is critical because skilled labour, furnace knowledge and site readiness can be difficult to rebuild after a prolonged shutdown.

Tasmania’s government had already tried to support a restart under GFG. It provided a A$20mn bridging loan after the smelter was suspended in May 2025, helping operations resume in August.

However, GFG defaulted on that loan in January 2026, leading to the smelter entering administration. The sale process now shifts responsibility to a new investor group that must address the site’s core operating problems.

The key challenge remains feedstock security. Manganese alloy smelting depends on reliable ore supply, power costs, furnace availability and customer demand from steelmakers.

If Adroit can secure ore and stabilise operations, the smelter could again support domestic steel supply chains. If not, the asset risks remaining a strategic facility without a sustainable operating model.

Manganese Alloy Security Matters for Steelmaking

Manganese alloys are essential in steelmaking because they improve strength, toughness and deoxidation performance. Ferro-manganese and silico-manganese are widely used across construction steel, infrastructure, machinery and defence-related steel applications.

Australia’s reliance on a single domestic manganese alloy producer makes Liberty Bell Bay more important than its nameplate capacity alone suggests. The smelter represents industrial optionality in a market where supply security is becoming more politically relevant.

The sale also comes as global ferro-alloy markets face volatility from weak steel demand, feedstock constraints and trade measures. Domestic production can reduce exposure to import disruptions, but only if operating costs remain competitive.

For Tasmania, the site also carries regional employment and industrial policy importance. Keeping the workforce funded through the sale process reduces the risk of losing technical capability before a new owner takes control.

The Adroit-led consortium will need more than financial interest. It must prove that the smelter can operate with stable raw material supply, disciplined maintenance and a credible sales strategy.

The broader lesson is clear. Strategic metals capacity cannot survive on government support alone. It needs a bankable operating model that links feedstock, power, customers and long-term demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Liberty Bell Bay sale is a test of whether Australia can preserve critical ferro-alloy capacity before it disappears. Manganese alloy supply may not attract the same attention as lithium or rare earths, but steelmaking security depends on assets like this.

Manganese Ore Export Prices to China Drop Amid Weaker Demand from Chinese Alloy Importers

Manganese Ore

In response to a slowing demand for manganese ore among Chinese alloy producers, major mining companies outside of China are reducing export prices. French mining giant Eramet Comilog has set its November shipment price for 45% Gabonese lumpy manganese ore at $3.95 per metric tonne unit (mtu) cif China—down $1.05/mtu from October levels.

South African UMK, another large-scale player in manganese production, dropped its price to $3.70/mtu for South African 36% lumpy manganese ore in October, a significant decrease from September’s $4.60/mtu.

Consolidated Minerals (CML), which operates mining ventures in Australia and Ghana, priced its Australian 45% lumpy manganese ore at $4.25/mtu cif China for November. While no comparable data is available for the previous two months, CML’s prices reached $9.30/mtu in August.

The manganese ore market had seen steady price increases since April, but started to decline in September after a halt in operations by South32’s Gemco joint venture due to Tropical Cyclone Megan. These disruptions, coupled with narrower profit margins and reduced outputs at steel mills, led to a decrease in demand and price adjustments.

As of October 10, Australian lumpy manganese ore (44-46% grade) was priced at 42-44 yuan/mtu ($5.93-6.21/mtu) in Chinese markets, significantly lower than the June high of Yn70-73/mtu. The downward trend in the alloy market, along with higher supply from Australian sources, prompted Chinese alloy producers to source ore from alternative markets.

India exports first low-grade manganese ore as Moil opens new trade channel

Manganese Ore

India exports first low-grade manganese ore as state-owned miner Moil ships its first cargo to Indonesia. The move, where India exports first low-grade manganese ore under a new State Trading Enterprise mandate, highlights New Delhi’s push to monetise surplus low-grade Mn fines. As India exports first low-grade manganese ore, it also signals a more active role in seaborne minerals markets.

Moil leads India’s first low-grade manganese ore export

Moil has executed India’s first low-grade manganese ore export through the port of Visakhapatnam. The inaugural consignment totalled 54,600t and sailed for Indonesia on 22 August. Under the State Trading Enterprise regime, Moil now controls all exports of manganese ore below 46pc grade.

This mandate centralises export decision-making for low-grade Mn ore in a single state-backed entity. Therefore Moil can aggregate domestic supply, coordinate pricing and negotiate offtake with overseas buyers. The new mechanism also connects Indian suppliers with international customers, improving transparency and logistics.

India exports first low-grade manganese ore at a time when many steelmakers prefer higher-grade feedstock. However, low-grade material remains attractive for specific processes, blending and cost-sensitive markets. Indonesia’s growing manganese and alloy demand provides a natural first destination for this trade.

Surplus low-grade Mn reserves drive export strategy

India holds large reserves of low-grade manganese ore that exceed domestic demand. Historically, these fines faced limited commercial outlets or were underutilised in domestic steel and alloy production. As a result, policymakers now see exports as a way to unlock stranded value and diversify mineral revenues.

By ensuring India exports first low-grade manganese ore through a structured channel, Moil can build a pricing and quality benchmark. Over time, repeat shipments could establish Indian-origin low-grade Mn as a recognised segment in Asian markets. Meanwhile, exports may help optimise mine plans by monetising materials previously considered marginal.

The state’s decision to use a dedicated trading enterprise also aims to avoid fragmented, opportunistic deals. A coordinated approach can support better freight optimisation, contract discipline and adherence to environmental and social standards. If successful, this model could be replicated for other surplus low-grade ores.

The Metalnomist Commentary

India’s first low-grade manganese export is small in global volume terms but big in signalling intent. If Moil can scale this trade while maintaining quality and reliability, India could emerge as a regular low-grade Mn supplier to Southeast Asia. Market participants should watch future tenders, destination diversity and pricing trends against African and Australian material.

Australia Critical Mineral Export Earnings Set to Rise on Manganese and Rare Earths

Australia, Critical Mineral

Australia critical mineral export earnings will rise as manganese and rare earths scale up. The Office of the Chief Economist expects stronger output and higher export value. Australia critical mineral export earnings could reach A$5.9bn by FY2026–27. Therefore, project finance and offtake activity should intensify across key supply chains.

Manganese growth drives the next leg of export value

Australian manganese exports will anchor the earnings uplift over the next two years. Manganese production could reach 3.87mn tonnes in FY2026–27. Meanwhile, export earnings from manganese could rise to A$2.7bn by FY2026–27. As a result, steel and battery intermediates will gain a larger non-China supply option.

Higher volume alone will not secure margins. However, miners can improve pricing power with consistent chemistry and logistics reliability. Producers will also compete for shipping slots and port capacity. Therefore, downstream partners will likely seek longer contracts and inventory buffers.

US–Australia financing support reshapes investment timing

Australia rare earths exports should also rise as capacity expands. Rare earth export earnings could reach A$410mn by FY2026–27. Meanwhile, US-backed financing linked to an October critical minerals deal supports new project commitments. As a result, developers can accelerate feasibility work, construction planning, and processing partnerships.

Execution risk remains the key variable. However, metallurgical complexity and separation capacity often slow rare earth ramp-ups. Companies that secure reagents, power, and skilled labor will scale faster. Therefore, integrated processing plans will attract the strongest capital support.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Australia is building a practical path toward higher-value critical minerals exports. However, earnings growth will depend on processing capacity, not just mined tonnes. The winners will pair secure finance with repeatable operating performance.

Tasmania Takes Control of Liberty Bell Bay Manganese Stockpile After GFG Default

GFG Alliance

The Liberty Bell Bay manganese stockpile has moved under state control after GFG Alliance defaulted on a government loan. Tasmania appointed receivers and managers to protect ore secured under taxpayer support. As a result, the Liberty Bell Bay manganese stockpile has become the center of a wider industrial dispute.

This development matters because Liberty Bell Bay is Australia’s only ferro-alloy plant. The site is licensed to produce ferromanganese and silicomanganese at meaningful scale. Therefore, the Liberty Bell Bay manganese stockpile now carries national industrial importance, not just local financial significance.

The state originally provided a bridging loan to support a restart of smelter operations. However, the government said GFG failed to restart the plant and did not repay the loan. Consequently, the GFG loan default has forced Tasmania to protect its collateral more directly.

GFG Loan Default Shifts Control to the Tasmanian Government

The GFG loan default marks a breakdown in trust between the company and the state. Tasmanian officials said GFG did not deliver on commitments made to workers and the public. That failure pushed the government to act. Meanwhile, state leaders said they remain open to future cooperation.

The decision also reflects a broader industrial policy concern. Governments can justify temporary support for strategic plants during disruption. However, that support becomes politically difficult when restart promises are missed. Therefore, the GFG loan default now raises harder questions about accountability in state-backed industrial rescue efforts.

Tasmania’s response shows a more defensive posture toward strategic raw materials. By securing control of the ore, the government preserves some leverage over the plant’s future. As a result, the Liberty Bell Bay manganese stockpile may become a bargaining asset in any restructuring or restart plan.

Liberty Bell Bay Restart Still Depends on Ore and Financing

The Tasmania ferro-alloy plant was already under pressure before the loan dispute intensified. Liberty Bell Bay suspended production in May 2025 because of maintenance needs and weak manganese ore supply. Supply issues from Australian and South African sources added further strain. Consequently, manganese ore supply remains one of the plant’s biggest operational risks.

GFG said it is still pursuing options to protect the future of Liberty Bell Bay. The company also said negotiations with Steel International Trading Company are continuing. However, financing alone may not solve the problem. The plant still needs reliable ore, working capital, and operational stability.

That makes the next phase especially important for the manganese market. A restart would support domestic alloy capacity and regional supply confidence. However, another delay would deepen uncertainty around Australia’s only ferro-alloy plant. Therefore, the future of Liberty Bell Bay now depends on execution, not intention.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This is no longer just a loan dispute. It is a test of whether a strategic industrial asset can survive under financial and raw material stress at the same time. If Liberty Bell Bay cannot secure ore and trust together, state intervention may only delay a deeper restructuring.

EPA Supports Expansion of Woodie Manganese Mine in Western Australia

Consolidated Minerals

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of Western Australia has endorsed Consolidated Minerals' plan to expand its Woodie manganese mine, aiming to extend its operational life until 2031. This decision follows an in-depth evaluation of the company’s proposal, which seeks to secure the mine's productivity for an additional decade.

Environmental and Economic Impact

As part of the expansion, Consolidated Minerals intends to clear 2,340 hectares of native vegetation to accommodate new mining pits, waste rock dumps, storage facilities, and additional mining infrastructure. Despite the significant development, the mine’s annual ore production and processing capacity is set to remain steady, with a maximum output of 1.6 million tons per year, consistent with past averages of 500,000 tons of ore processed annually between 2010 and 2020. It is important to note that the mine had previously faced a temporary closure between 2016 and 2017.

The proposal was initially submitted to the EPA in early 2020, and after careful consideration, the agency has now formally backed the expansion plan. The public has until 23 December to appeal the decision, ensuring transparency and community involvement in the approval process.

Broader Implications for Trade

The expansion comes at a crucial time as Australian manganese ore exports to China have experienced a significant decline, falling 48% year-on-year as of September due to disruptions like Cyclone Megan. The extended life of the Woodie Woodie mine could help stabilize supply chains and reinforce Australia's position in the global manganese market.

Firebird Metals Builds First LMFP Battery in China Development Push

Firebird Metals

Australian Firm Partners with Chinese University to Test Lithium Manganese Iron Phosphate Technology

Firebird Metals, an Australian battery materials company, has successfully built a lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) battery in China, marking a significant step in its ongoing development program.

The company is conducting these tests in partnership with Central South University in Hunan province, making it one of the first Australian firms to assemble an LMFP battery abroad.

Firebird has begun testing 100 batches of battery metal formulations, with the goal of converting them into fully functional LMFP batteries. As of March 4, the firm has tested five batches, and several of them have already yielded working battery cells, according to its investor update.

Potential for LMFP Capacity Expansion at China Hub

Depending on the results of its full test campaign, Firebird may expand its Chinese battery hub to reach 1 tonne/day of LMFP capacity. The company aims to leverage China’s supply chain efficiency and academic R&D to accelerate commercial battery-grade material production.

Firebird is not alone in the LMFP race. Livium, a battery recycler, produced LMFP battery cells in 2020 at a Brisbane pilot plant. In China, Ningbo Rombay, a leading domestic manufacturer, operates at a scale of 10,000 tonnes per year, positioning itself as a dominant LMFP supplier.

Meanwhile, manganese sulphate prices, a key input for LMFP, have shown notable volatility. According to SUPERMETALPRICE, battery-grade manganese sulphate (≥32% Mn) ex-works pricing climbed from $660/t in February 2024 to $861/t in June, before retreating to $820/t by late February 2025. Prices remain well below the March 2022 peak of $1,671/t, reflecting ongoing market correction and oversupply dynamics.

Firebird’s pilot results could play a critical role in defining Australia’s foothold in low-cost, thermally stable LMFP battery chemistry, widely viewed as a viable alternative to LFP and NCM chemistries in energy storage and e-mobility applications.

Anglo American Q1 Copper Output Drops as Nickel Rises and Manganese Slumps

Anglo American

Anglo American's Q1 copper output declined 15% year-on-year to 168,900 tonnes due to planned production cuts in Chile. While Peru’s higher ore grades partially offset losses, the drop in Anglo American Q1 copper output reflects the company’s broader operational recalibrations in South America.

Copper Falls, Nickel Climbs Amid Strategic Asset Reallocation

Anglo American continues to manage regional output variability, with Peru boosting copper grades while Chile scaled back production. For 2025, the miner expects 690,000–750,000 tonnes of copper output. Meanwhile, nickel production rose 3% to 9,800 tonnes in Q1, thanks to stable operations at Brazil’s Barro Alto mine.

However, Anglo is preparing to exit the nickel sector altogether. It plans to sell its Brazilian nickel assets to China’s MMG later this year, signaling a strategic pivot amid shifting commodity markets and capital priorities.

Manganese and PGM Output Weaken on Weather and Suspension Impacts

First-quarter manganese ore output plummeted 60% year-on-year to 317,000 tonnes. The drop was tied to the suspension of Australian operations following cyclone damage in 2023. Sales are expected to resume in Q2 2025.

Platinum group metals (PGM) production also fell 17% to 696,000 ounces. Anglo American attributed the decline to reduced concentrate purchases and adverse weather at its Amandelbult mine in South Africa, where heavy rains impacted mined output.

Guidance Holds Steady Despite Operational Headwinds

Despite the declines in copper and manganese, Anglo American maintained its 2025 guidance. It forecasts 37,000–39,000 tonnes of nickel and expects export sales of manganese to resume shortly. The company continues to rebalance its portfolio amid market volatility, focusing on long-term asset optimization.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Anglo American’s mixed Q1 results underscore the volatility facing diversified miners. The drop in copper output aligns with a strategic slowdown, while stable nickel production—soon to be divested—hints at broader portfolio streamlining. Weather and logistics remain persistent risks across multiple assets.

South32 Maintains 2024-25 Production Guidance, Excluding Mozal Aluminium

South32

Diversified Miner Reports Stable Output Across Key Assets

South32 has reaffirmed its 2024-25 production guidance for most of its operations, excluding Mozal Aluminium in Mozambique due to transportation disruptions from civil unrest. The Australian-based miner continues to ramp up production across its aluminium, copper, nickel, zinc, and manganese operations despite regional challenges.

Mozal Aluminium Faces Uncertainty Amid Civil Unrest

South32’s Mozal Aluminium smelter produced 90,000 tonnes of aluminium in Q4 2024, marking a 2.3% increase from the previous quarter. However, ongoing violent protests in Mozambique have led to the withdrawal of production guidance. While production and exports remain operational, raw material transportation remains disrupted.

Aluminium and Alumina Production Remains Strong

• Brazil Aluminium (40% South32 ownership): Q4 2024 output increased 13% quarter-over-quarter to 34,000 tonnes. Production guidance remains 130,000 t/yr.
• Hillside Aluminium (South Africa, 100% ownership): Production remained steady at 182,000 tonnes, with guidance unchanged at 720,000 t/yr.
• Brazil Alumina (36% South32 ownership): Q4 2024 production rose 4.2% to 348,000 tonnes, with guidance steady at 1.35 million t/yr.
• Worsley Alumina (Western Australia, 86% ownership): Production surged 18% to 1 million tonnes after maintenance, with 2024-25 guidance at 3.75 million t/yr.

Copper, Zinc, Nickel, and Manganese Performance

• Sierra Gorda Copper Mine (Chile, 45% ownership): Payable copper production rose 10% to 24,300 tonnes due to higher grades and improved molybdenum recovery. Guidance remains 84,800 t/yr.
• Cannington Zinc Mine (Australia, 100% ownership): Zinc output surged 50% to 79,200 tonnes, driven by higher plant throughput and improved silver and lead grades. Guidance holds at 265,400 t/yr.
• Cerro Matoso Nickel Mine (Colombia, 99.9% ownership): Nickel production rose 15% to 9,900 tonnes with improved plant utilization. Guidance remains 35,000 t/yr.
• Gemco Manganese Mine (Australia, 60% ownership): Production resumed after Cyclone Megan, reaching 639,000 tonnes.
• Hotazel Manganese Mine (South Africa, 54.6% ownership): Output declined 19% to 485,000 tonnes due to a temporary shutdown at Wessels mine.

Green Aluminium Incentives and Industry Outlook

The Australian government has pledged A$2 billion in production credits to support aluminium producers transitioning to renewable energy by 2036. The Green Aluminium Production Credit will be available from 2028-29 for up to 10 years, though specific details remain undisclosed.

South32’s production stability, despite regional disruptions, positions it strongly within the evolving global metals market.

Australia Critical Minerals Prospectus Signals a Bigger Global Investment Push

Australian, Critical Minerals

Australia critical minerals prospectus marks a sharper push to attract global capital into domestic supply chains. Canberra has launched a new project list covering 78 projects across 14 critical minerals. The document focuses on assets at or beyond pre-feasibility stage. As a result, the Australia critical minerals prospectus is designed to turn project visibility into investment momentum.

This move matters because Australia wants to position itself as a trusted supplier in a more fragmented global market. The government launched the prospectus during meetings in Washington, DC. That timing shows the document is not only informational. Therefore, the Australia critical minerals prospectus is also a geopolitical investment tool.

The project list is selective rather than exhaustive. Australia’s broader major projects list includes 130 critical mineral projects, but many are earlier-stage assets. The new prospectus narrows the field to more advanced opportunities. Consequently, the government is trying to present investors with a more commercially credible pipeline.

Australian Critical Mineral Projects Are Being Framed for Global Capital

Australian critical mineral projects are now being packaged more directly for international investors. Only three of the 78 prospectus projects are currently under construction. That means most still need capital, partners, and execution support. As a result, the prospectus is effectively a curated financing map for the next phase of development.

This approach fits Australia’s wider strategy. Canberra has already agreed to co-invest at least $3bn with the United States in critical mineral projects. The US Export-Import Bank also indicated possible co-funding support for several Australian assets. Therefore, Australian critical mineral projects are increasingly being linked to allied capital, not just domestic policy.

Japan also sits inside this emerging framework. Australia has signaled that the next stage of its relationship with Japan should focus more heavily on critical minerals and economic security. That gives the prospectus broader diplomatic value. Meanwhile, it strengthens Australia’s role as a preferred partner in allied supply diversification.

Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve Adds a Stronger Domestic Backstop

Critical minerals strategic reserve policy is the second major pillar behind this push. Australia plans to launch a A$1.2bn reserve in 2026 to support developers. The government will secure offtake rights and then sell those rights into the market. Consequently, the critical minerals strategic reserve could reduce financing risk for selected projects.

The choice of target materials is also important. Australia plans to focus primarily on antimony, gallium, and rare earth element projects under the reserve scheme. These are precisely the kinds of materials where market concentration and geopolitical risk remain high. Therefore, the reserve is being designed around strategic vulnerability, not only export volume.

The broader export outlook supports this push. Australia expects critical mineral export earnings to rise, led largely by manganese and rare earths. That creates a stronger commercial backdrop for new investment. As a result, the Australia critical minerals prospectus arrives with both policy support and improving sector relevance.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This prospectus is more than a project catalogue. It is a signal that Australia wants to convert geological strength into a more investable strategic minerals platform. If capital and policy now move together, Australia could deepen its role as one of the most important allied critical minerals suppliers.

Anglo American Faces Decline in Copper, Nickel, and PGM Output in 2024

Anglo American

Decreased Production from Chile, Peru, and South Africa Affects Key Metals

Anglo American, the UK-South African mining giant, reported a drop in its copper, nickel, and platinum group metals (PGMs) output for 2024. This decline, particularly from its assets in Chile, Peru, and South Africa, reflects challenges faced in production and ongoing operational adjustments.

Copper Production Decline Driven by Chile and Peru

Anglo American’s total copper output for 2024 decreased by 6%, reaching 772,700 tonnes. Copper production in Chile dropped by 8% to 466,400 tonnes, with a 20% decline at the Los Bronces mine, which was placed on care and maintenance in July. Additionally, production at the Collahuasi mine fell by 3%, though higher grades at El Soldado partially offset these declines, with a 22% output increase.

In Peru, the Quellaveco mine saw a 4% reduction in copper output to 306,300 tonnes, due to lower grades and recoveries. Anglo American’s Q4 copper output also saw a notable drop, decreasing by 14% to 197,500 tonnes compared to the previous year.

Looking ahead, the company projects copper production to range between 690,000 and 750,000 tonnes in 2025, with an expectation of increasing production to 760,000 to 820,000 tonnes in 2026 and 2027.

Nickel and PGM Production Challenges

Nickel output for Anglo American fell by 2% in 2024, totaling 39,400 tonnes. A 13% drop in production at the Codemin site in Brazil was partially offset by a 2% increase at the Barro Alto plant due to operational improvements. In Q4, nickel production declined by 10%, amounting to 10,000 tonnes, primarily due to planned lower grades.

The company also faced a 7% decline in PGM production from its operations, including mines in South Africa and Zimbabwe. Full-year production of PGMs in concentrate decreased to 3.55 million ounces. However, refined PGM production rose by 3%, reaching 3.92 million ounces in 2024. In 2025, Anglo American expects to produce between 3 million and 3.4 million ounces of PGMs.

Manganese Ore Decline and Future Expectations

Anglo American’s manganese ore production fell sharply by 38% to 2.29 million tonnes in 2024. This was largely due to the suspension of Australian operations following damage caused by Tropical Cyclone Megan in March.

Despite the setbacks in 2024, the company’s projections for future production of copper, nickel, and PGMs indicate a positive outlook for 2025 and beyond, as it continues to adjust operations and focus on optimizing output at key sites.

Cobalt Blue Glomar Nodule Processing Deal Targets US Critical Minerals Supply

Glomar Minerals x Cobalt Blue 

Cobalt Blue Glomar nodule processing plans have moved forward after Australian minerals processor Cobalt Blue signed an agreement with US deep sea miner Glomar Minerals to process seabed polymetallic nodules. The partnership will focus on testing whether nodules can become a reliable feedstock for critical metals including cobalt, copper, manganese, nickel and titanium.

The agreement gives both companies a pathway to assess processing feasibility before moving toward a larger industrial model. Pilot testing will take place at Cobalt Blue’s Broken Hill Technology Center in Australia.

Cobalt Blue Glomar nodule processing is strategically important because deep sea nodules contain multiple metals needed for batteries, stainless steel, alloys, electrification and defense-related supply chains. The main challenge is not only resource access, but proving that the material can be processed efficiently, responsibly and at commercial scale.

Broken Hill Pilot Testing Will Define Recovery Potential

Cobalt Blue will test recovery feasibility from polymetallic nodules across several metal streams. The work will help determine how cobalt, copper, manganese, nickel, titanium and other metals can be separated and converted into usable products.

This processing step is critical for deep sea mining economics. Polymetallic nodules may offer metal diversity, but commercial value depends on metallurgical performance, recovery rates, processing cost and environmental controls.

The Broken Hill Technology Center gives the partnership a practical testing platform. If pilot results are successful, the companies can move from early feasibility work toward engineering a larger processing route.

US Facility Plan Highlights Deep Sea Supply Chain Ambition

Cobalt Blue and Glomar eventually aim to develop a commercial-scale polymetallic nodule processing facility in the US. The planned facility would have capacity of 200,000 tonnes per year.

Glomar holds exploration licences in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, a North Pacific region known for significant polymetallic nodule deposits. That position gives the company potential access to a major seabed mineral resource base.

For the US, the project fits a broader effort to diversify critical mineral supply beyond conventional land-based mining. However, deep sea mineral development will still face technical, environmental, regulatory and financing scrutiny before it can become a meaningful supply source.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Cobalt Blue Glomar nodule processing shows that deep sea mining is moving from resource promotion toward metallurgical validation. The real test will be whether seabed nodules can become a responsible and scalable feedstock for US critical minerals processing.

Australia EU Trade Deal Secures Critical Raw Materials Supply

Australia, EU trade

Australia EU trade deal negotiations have concluded after eight years, giving the EU a new framework to secure stable access to critical raw materials. The agreement targets minerals including lithium, bauxite, manganese, tantalum, nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earth oxides.

The Australia EU trade deal will cut or remove bilateral tariffs on critical raw materials and value-added mineral products. This gives European manufacturers a more reliable supply route at a time when tariffs, export controls, and geopolitical pressure are reshaping global materials trade.

The agreement also strengthens Australia’s position as a preferred critical minerals partner for Europe. Australia produces around a third of global lithium and remains a major supplier of bauxite, iron ore, zirconium, and rare earth elements.

Critical Minerals Access Becomes Central to EU Trade Policy

The EU is using the Australia EU trade deal to reduce exposure to China-dominated supply chains and rising US tariff risks. The agreement reflects Brussels’ shift from traditional trade liberalisation toward strategic supply chain security.

Critical raw materials are now central to European industrial policy because they support batteries, electric vehicles, renewable energy, defence systems, aerospace, electronics, and advanced manufacturing. Stable access to lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, and rare earths will determine how quickly Europe can scale clean-energy manufacturing.

The deal also includes deeper co-operation on critical raw materials, including possible co-financing of key projects. This matters because Europe needs not only raw mineral access, but also investment in processing, refining, and value-added material production.

Australia Gains Strategic Value as Europe Diversifies Supply

Australia stands to gain economically and strategically from the agreement. The deal is expected to add about $7 billion per year to the Australian economy, while European producers could save more than $1.1 billion in tariffs over the next decade.

The timing is important because Europe is rapidly diversifying its strategic trade partnerships. The EU recently moved forward with trade agreements involving Mercosur and India, showing that Brussels is building a wider network of reliable raw material and manufacturing partners.

The Australia agreement still requires approval by a majority of EU member states and consent from the European Parliament before ratification is complete. However, the strategic direction is already clear: Europe wants critical minerals supply from partners with stable governance, developed mining capacity, and lower geopolitical risk.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The Australia EU trade deal shows that critical minerals have moved from procurement strategy to trade architecture. Europe is no longer simply buying raw materials; it is building alliances to secure the minerals, processing capacity, and industrial resilience needed for the energy transition.

Posco Future M begins cathode exports to US

Posco Future M

Posco Future M begins cathode exports to US as it ships high-nickel NCM-A materials to Ultium Cells. The move uses self-produced precursors and strengthens North American EV supply chains. As a result, Posco Future M begins cathode exports to US with IRA-aligned feedstock and full upstream integration. This milestone confirms scale, quality, and localization readiness as Posco Future M begins cathode exports to US.

What shipped, from where, and to whom

Posco Future M dispatched high-nickel cathodes made with in-house precursors. Ultium Cells will use them for EV battery production. The shipment followed completion of its 45,000 t/yr precursor plant in Gwangyang. The facility started on 10 June, with first cargo on 26 July. Precursors of nickel, cobalt, and manganese combine with lithium at the Gwangyang cathode plant. The company targets consistent quality and cost control through vertical integration.

Why this matters for US battery supply chains

The delivery supports GM’s Ultium platform with non-Chinese nickel inputs. Posco Group converts nickel into high-purity nickel sulfate for CAM. Meanwhile, Posco Pilbara Lithium Solution supplies lithium from Australian spodumene. Posco Lithium Solution complements this with Argentine brine supply. These sources enhance IRA compliance and traceability for US-bound batteries. OEMs gain reduced risk, shorter timelines, and improved procurement flexibility.

Capacity outlook and localization pathway

Posco Future M and GM are building Ultium CAM in Bécancour, Quebec. The 30,000 t/yr cathode plant targets completion in 2026. Therefore, initial exports bridge near-term demand before local output ramps. The model mixes offshore precursor strength with regional CAM finishing. This approach helps stabilize costs and meet regional content rules. It also diversifies North American cathode supply beyond LFP.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Posco’s integrated precursor-to-cathode chain is a competitive advantage. Expect tighter OEM-supplier ties as IRA rules harden and Ultium volumes scale. Watch Bécancour’s CAM launch; it will set North America’s high-nickel baseline.