EU Raw Materials Platform Targets Strategic Metals Supply Security

EU, Raw Materials Platform

EU raw materials platform development has advanced as the European Commission launched a new online mechanism to connect European offtakers with suppliers of strategic raw materials. The EU raw materials platform is designed to support demand aggregation, joint purchasing and better market information across critical supply chains.

The platform covers all 17 strategic raw materials listed under the Critical Raw Materials Act. These materials are central to batteries, rare earth magnets, defence systems, semiconductors, renewable energy, advanced manufacturing and industrial resilience.

EU raw materials platform activity will take place through structured rounds. The first diversification round will target operational projects where materials are already available or expected in the near term, with a focus on rare earths, defence-related materials and battery metals.

The mechanism will not provide financing or directly support negotiations. However, it can improve visibility across supply, demand, storage, investment opportunities and financing options, which are often fragmented in strategic raw material markets.

Demand Aggregation Could Strengthen Minor Metals Markets

Demand aggregation is the most important function of the platform. Many strategic materials are needed in small volumes by individual companies, but they carry high industrial and defence value.

This is especially true for minor metals such as gallium and germanium. These materials are used in semiconductors, optics, solar technologies, defence electronics and advanced communications systems, but individual buyers may not require large enough volumes to support new supply projects alone.

Pooling demand can change that equation. If several European buyers aggregate requirements, suppliers may see larger, more stable offtake volumes. This can improve confidence for upstream mining, refining, recycling and midstream processing projects.

The same logic applies to rare earths. Magnet makers, motor producers, defence manufacturers and clean-energy equipment suppliers often need secure access to neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium. Aggregated demand could make European purchasing more credible to non-EU suppliers.

Battery metals may also benefit. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese and graphite supply chains are increasingly shaped by long-term offtake, regional qualification and industrial policy. A shared platform can help buyers identify supply options before shortages become acute.

The platform therefore addresses a structural weakness in Europe’s critical materials strategy. Europe has strong downstream industries, but many of those industries purchase strategic metals in fragmented, company-by-company channels.

By collecting and exchanging market data, the mechanism could help convert dispersed demand into more bankable offtake signals. That is important for suppliers seeking financing, customers and predictable long-term buyers.

Platform Supports EU Diversification but Does Not Replace Financing

The EU raw materials platform is part of a broader strategy to reduce external dependencies under the Critical Raw Materials Act. Europe wants to diversify supply, strengthen domestic processing and secure access to materials needed for the energy transition and defence.

However, the mechanism is not a full project-financing tool. Negotiations will take place outside the system, and the platform will not guarantee deals or provide direct financial backing.

This limits what the mechanism can achieve by itself. Strategic raw material projects still need permitting, capital, technology, customer qualification, logistics and long-term price visibility.

But the platform can still play a useful role. It can bring buyers and suppliers into the same market framework, improve demand transparency and identify where joint purchasing could support supply diversification.

The first diversification round will be important because it focuses on projects close to availability. This avoids the problem of relying only on long-dated mining projects that may take years to enter production.

The inclusion of storage options is also relevant. Strategic materials supply security is not only about production. It also depends on inventories, emergency access, buffer stocks and coordinated procurement during disruption.

The broader platform also includes gas and hydrogen mechanisms. This shows that the EU is applying a similar strategic procurement model across energy and raw materials, where fragmented buying can weaken market leverage.

For Europe’s industrial base, the key issue is execution. The platform must move beyond data sharing and create real commercial connections between offtakers and suppliers. Otherwise, it risks becoming another policy tool without enough market impact.

For suppliers, the opportunity is clearer. A credible pool of European demand could make projects more attractive, especially in rare earths, gallium, germanium and battery materials where supply diversification is politically urgent.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The EU raw materials platform is not a financing solution, but it could become an important demand-signalling tool. Its success will depend on whether Europe can turn fragmented buyer interest into real offtake volumes that support new strategic metals supply.

Global Solid-State Electrolyte Shipments Surge as Semi-Solid Batteries Scale

Solid state electrolyte

Global solid-state electrolyte shipments are rising rapidly as semi-solid batteries move toward vehicle adoption and full solid-state battery commercialisation advances. Chinese research institute EV Tank said shipments reached 4,100t in 2025, more than doubling from a year earlier.

The increase marks an important early-stage signal for the battery materials industry. Electrolytes are one of the core materials that determine the energy density, safety and commercial viability of solid-state batteries.

Global solid-state electrolyte shipments are still small compared with conventional lithium-ion battery materials. However, the growth rate shows that downstream producers are beginning to prepare for larger semi-solid and solid-state battery output.

EV Tank expects global solid-state electrolyte shipments to reach 229,000t by 2030. That would imply a compound annual growth rate of more than 120% from 2025 to 2030, making electrolytes one of the fastest-growing segments in advanced battery materials.

The forecast reflects both technological progress and industrial positioning. Battery producers, automakers and materials companies are now investing ahead of expected demand from electric vehicles, energy storage systems and high-end electronics.

Semi-Solid Batteries Create the First Commercial Demand Base

Semi-solid batteries are likely to provide the first meaningful demand base for solid-state battery electrolytes. EV Tank expects these batteries to begin vehicle adoption from 2026, ahead of full solid-state battery mass production.

This timing matters because semi-solid batteries can act as a bridge technology. They offer improved safety and performance compared with conventional liquid-electrolyte batteries, while avoiding some of the most difficult technical barriers facing all-solid-state cells.

Semi-solid battery growth is already supporting electrolyte shipments. These products still use electrolyte systems that may differ from fully solid-state designs, but they create early commercial demand for sulphide, oxide, polymer, halide and composite electrolyte materials.

Full solid-state batteries are expected to enter small-scale mass production from 2027. That stage will likely remain limited at first because large-scale production still faces technical, cost and qualification challenges.

The market therefore looks likely to develop in phases. Semi-solid batteries will drive early electrolyte consumption, while full solid-state batteries will gradually expand once production processes, interfaces and reliability improve.

Electrolytes are central to this transition. They influence ion conductivity, safety, cycle life, energy density and compatibility with electrodes. Any weakness in electrolyte performance can limit the entire battery system.

This is why electrolyte development is becoming a strategic battleground. Battery makers cannot scale solid-state technology only by changing cell design. They need stable, high-quality electrolyte materials that can be produced consistently at industrial scale.

Capacity expansion is accelerating in response. EV Tank expects producers with annual electrolyte capacity at the thousand-tonne level to emerge within the next one to two years.

That would mark a shift from laboratory and pilot-scale material production toward early industrial supply. It would also create a more competitive market among electrolyte producers seeking qualification with battery manufacturers.

For battery materials suppliers, this creates a new growth category. Electrolytes may become a higher-value segment within the battery chain, especially if producers can meet strict requirements for purity, particle control, stability and conductivity.

For automakers, the key issue is reliability. Vehicle adoption requires materials that can perform under harsh cycling, temperature and safety conditions. This means electrolyte suppliers must pass long qualification cycles before volume demand can fully develop.

Technology Routes and Cost Cuts Shape the Scale-Up

Solid-state battery electrolyte technology remains diversified, especially in semi-solid batteries. Sulphide, oxide, polymer and halide routes are developing in parallel, while both single-electrolyte and composite-electrolyte solutions are being adopted.

This diversity shows that the industry has not yet settled on a single dominant material route. Different technologies offer different advantages in conductivity, stability, manufacturability, cost and safety.

Sulphide electrolytes currently dominate the roadmap for full solid-state batteries. They offer high ionic conductivity and are widely viewed as one of the most promising routes for high-performance battery cells.

However, sulphide systems also face challenges. They require careful handling, moisture control and interface engineering. These factors can raise production complexity and slow commercial scale-up.

Oxide electrolytes offer strong chemical and thermal stability, but they can face processing and interface resistance challenges. Polymer electrolytes offer manufacturing flexibility, but often struggle with conductivity at room temperature. Halide electrolytes are gaining interest because of their electrochemical stability and potential compatibility with high-voltage cathodes.

Composite electrolyte solutions may become increasingly important. By combining material systems, producers can try to balance conductivity, flexibility, stability and manufacturability.

Cost reduction is also becoming a major commercial driver. EV Tank said improvements in material quality and production processes lowered costs across several technology routes in 2025.

Sulphide electrolyte costs fell by more than 35% during the year. This is significant because cost remains one of the biggest obstacles to wider solid-state battery adoption.

Lower electrolyte costs improve the competitiveness of solid-state batteries against conventional lithium-ion technologies. They also make it easier for battery makers to test commercial deployment in premium vehicles, high-performance energy storage and other demanding applications.

Still, cost reduction alone will not guarantee rapid commercialisation. The industry must also solve interface stability, dendrite control, manufacturing yield, pressure management and long-term cycle reliability.

This explains why some major automakers remain cautious. BYD chief scientist Lian Yubo has said solid-state batteries still face core technical bottlenecks and that liquid and solid-state batteries should develop as complementary technologies.

Great Wall Motor also does not expect large-scale commercialisation of all-solid-state batteries in the near term. This caution suggests that the market may grow strongly, but unevenly.

The commercial pathway is therefore not a simple replacement of liquid batteries. Conventional lithium-ion batteries, semi-solid batteries and full solid-state batteries are likely to coexist for years, each serving different cost and performance segments.

This has important implications for materials demand. Solid-state growth could increase demand for lithium metal, high-nickel cathodes, sulphur-based materials, oxides, halides and specialty chemical precursors. But it may not immediately reduce demand for conventional electrolytes, separators or liquid battery components.

The forecast of 229,000t of global solid-state electrolyte shipments by 2030 points to a large materials opportunity. But the final market size will depend on how quickly automakers adopt semi-solid batteries and how successfully full solid-state batteries move from demonstration to reliable mass production.

For supply chains, qualification will be decisive. Battery makers will not buy electrolyte materials only because capacity exists. They will need stable quality, competitive pricing, proven performance and reliable long-term supply.

For policymakers, solid-state batteries are increasingly tied to advanced manufacturing and energy security. Countries that control electrolyte technology and battery production could gain strategic advantage in next-generation electric vehicles and storage systems.

For the metals market, the key point is that battery innovation changes materials demand before full commercial adoption arrives. Producers begin scaling supply years before the technology reaches mass-market vehicles, creating early demand signals and investment cycles.

Global solid-state electrolyte shipments therefore offer a useful indicator of where advanced battery manufacturing is moving. The numbers remain small, but the growth curve is steep enough to attract capital, competition and supply-chain restructuring.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Solid-state electrolyte growth shows that next-generation battery competition is moving upstream into materials engineering. The market will expand quickly, but full solid-state batteries still need technical proof before they can reshape EV and energy storage supply chains at scale.

Battery Metals Demand Faces Slower Path as Hybrid Vehicle Growth Extends

Battery Metals

Battery metals demand could face a slower growth path as carmakers and suppliers expect hybrids and range extenders to remain important for longer than earlier electric-only transition models assumed. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car summit said vehicle decarbonisation should be measured by emissions reduction, not only battery electric vehicle share.

Battery metals demand remains structurally supported by electrification. However, a longer hybrid phase could reduce near-term demand intensity for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese because hybrid vehicles use smaller battery packs than full battery electric vehicles.

Battery metals demand assumptions are therefore becoming more complex. Automotive electrification is still progressing, but the industry is moving toward a mixed powertrain future rather than a simple shift from combustion engines to full BEVs.

Horse Powertrain chief executive Matias Giannini said half of passenger vehicles could still be produced with some form of combustion or hybrid powertrain by 2040. That outlook would keep investment flowing into efficient hybrid systems alongside EV platforms.

Hybrid Growth Changes the Battery Raw Materials Curve

Hybrid vehicle growth could temper the pace of battery raw material demand without reversing electrification. Hybrids and range extenders still require electric motors, inverters, wiring and batteries, but their battery packs are much smaller than those used in BEVs.

This matters most for nickel. High-nickel NCM and NCA batteries are closely tied to longer-range BEVs, where larger packs are needed to deliver performance and driving range.

A slower BEV ramp-up could delay some of the nickel sulphate demand growth that has supported investment cases for new battery-grade nickel projects. It could also affect cobalt and manganese demand in cathode chemistries exposed to full EV penetration rates.

Lithium remains supported across almost every electrification pathway. Still, a longer hybrid transition could slow the rate at which large-format BEV batteries absorb lithium units.

The shift does not mean automotive metals demand will weaken across the board. Hybrids use more copper than conventional combustion vehicles because they require electric motors, power electronics and more complex wiring systems.

Continued hybrid and combustion production also supports aluminium castings, stainless steel, exhaust components and engine-related materials. Meanwhile, BEV growth still supports aluminium lightweighting, copper wiring, charging infrastructure and battery materials.

The result is a less linear automotive metals outlook. Battery metals may grow more slowly than aggressive BEV scenarios suggest, while broader automotive metals consumption remains supported by platform complexity and mixed powertrain production.

Policy Flexibility Could Reshape European Metal Demand

European suppliers are pushing for more flexibility in the EU regulatory framework. Current policy remains heavily weighted toward full electrification through tailpipe emissions targets.

The EU targets a 100% reduction in tailpipe emissions from new cars and vans from 2035. That effectively ends new combustion engine sales unless future exemptions are created.

Industry participants increasingly want a more technology-neutral route. They argue that hybrids, range extenders, renewable fuels and lower-carbon manufacturing should contribute to emissions reduction alongside BEVs.

This policy debate matters for metals. Battery material demand depends heavily on BEV penetration, average pack size and chemistry choice.

If Europe allows a longer role for hybrids and range extenders, lithium-ion battery capacity demand per vehicle could grow more slowly. That would affect demand forecasts for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese.

Chinese EV and hybrid technology is also improving quickly. This puts pressure on European and US automakers to share development costs across BEV, hybrid and range-extender platforms.

For suppliers, the strategic issue is flexibility. Companies tied only to high-growth BEV battery assumptions may face demand timing risk, while suppliers serving copper, aluminium, stainless steel, electronics and hybrid systems may benefit from a broader platform mix.

The automotive transition is still real, but the material demand path is becoming more diversified. Metals markets must now track powertrain mix, not only EV sales headlines.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Hybrid growth does not weaken the energy transition, but it changes the metals timing. Battery metals demand will still rise, yet copper, aluminium and hybrid-related materials may capture more value if automakers choose a longer mixed-powertrain route.

Toyota Tsusho PPESNA Stake Strengthens North American Battery Supply Chain

Toyota Tsusho

Toyota Tsusho PPESNA stake acquisition gives the Japanese trading firm a stronger role in building Toyota Group’s North American battery supply chain. The company acquired a 20% stake in Prime Planet Energy and Solutions’ North American subsidiary, PPESNA.

The Toyota Tsusho PPESNA stake is designed to support stable battery production across procurement, materials, components, production equipment and recycling. The move shows how Japanese industrial groups are deepening control over regional battery supply chains as North American electrification investment expands.

PPESNA was established in September 2025 to improve service and response capabilities for PPES customers and Toyota Group’s battery business in North America. Toyota Tsusho’s investment gives the subsidiary a broader commercial and supply-chain platform.

Toyota Tsusho Targets Battery Procurement and Recycling Integration

Toyota Tsusho said the investment will help develop a supply chain covering equipment procurement, battery materials, components and recycling. This is important because battery production increasingly depends on coordinated sourcing across cathode materials, anode materials, separators, electrolytes, cells, modules and recycling routes.

The company already has exposure to Toyota Battery Manufacturing North Carolina, which can produce 30GWh/yr of batteries at full capacity. That gives Toyota Tsusho a direct link to one of Toyota Group’s key North American battery manufacturing assets.

The Toyota Tsusho PPESNA stake also complements the company’s recycling strategy. Toyota Tsusho has established a joint venture with LG Energy Solution to recycle batteries in North Carolina, giving it another position in the circular battery materials chain.

North America Becomes a Strategic Battery Manufacturing Base

North America is becoming a core region for Japanese battery supply-chain investment. Automakers and trading houses are trying to localise procurement, reduce logistics risk and prepare for tighter regional content requirements.

Toyota Tsusho’s role is especially important because trading companies often connect raw materials, equipment suppliers, manufacturers and recyclers. In battery supply chains, that coordination can reduce bottlenecks and improve long-term production stability.

For Toyota Group, the PPESNA investment supports a more integrated North American platform. It links battery production, upstream procurement and recycling at a time when battery costs, material security and regional manufacturing incentives remain central to electric vehicle competitiveness.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Toyota Tsusho’s PPESNA investment shows that battery competitiveness is moving beyond cell production alone. The real advantage will come from controlling the full supply chain, from equipment and materials procurement to recycling and closed-loop recovery.

Gotion Slovakia battery plant anchors new EU battery supply hub

Gotion Slovakia battery plant

Gotion Slovakia battery plant construction has begun, marking a major step in Europe’s race for local EV cell capacity. The Gotion Slovakia battery plant will be the country’s first gigafactory and a key node in China–EU battery supply chains. As a result, the Gotion Slovakia battery plant positions Slovakia as a new player in Europe’s electrification map.

Gotion Slovakia battery plant targets EU gigafactory scale

The first phase of the Gotion Slovakia battery plant will add 20GWh a year of lithium-ion capacity. Gotion plans pilot production in 2026, with commercial volumes starting in 2027 and feeding customers across EU markets. This timing aligns with accelerating European EV and energy storage demand, as automakers seek diversified cell suppliers.

Meanwhile, the Surany facility will be Slovakia’s first battery gigafactory, strengthening Central Europe’s role as an automotive manufacturing corridor. Products will likely support both passenger EVs and stationary storage, given Gotion’s broad lithium-ion portfolio. Therefore, OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers in the EU gain another large-scale, non-European cell source inside the single market.

Chinese battery makers accelerate overseas footprint

Gotion has rapidly expanded outside China, with projects in Morocco, Thailand, Japan and the US adding to 20 global plants. The company targets 300GWh a year of installed capacity by 2025, including 100GWh outside China, to serve regionalised EV supply chains. However, its planned Michigan cathode and anode plant was cancelled after policy disagreements with local authorities.

As a result, Europe and emerging markets now absorb more of Gotion’s outbound investment as geopolitical trade risks rise. Chinese battery makers are building overseas to diversify customers, reduce tariff exposure and align with “local-for-local” industrial policies. These projects also hedge against potential future export controls on advanced battery materials and equipment.

Export controls delayed but policy risk remains

China has postponed planned export restrictions on certain high-end lithium batteries, key equipment, cathode materials and artificial graphite. The one-year delay followed talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump and removes an immediate brake on Chinese firms’ overseas expansion. However, the episode underscores how quickly regulation can reshape the global battery value chain.

In the near term, Gotion and its peers gain critical time to lock in projects and qualify products with Western OEMs. Longer term, governments may still tighten controls around strategic battery technologies and materials. Therefore, assets like the Gotion Slovakia battery plant will be increasingly valued for their on-shore, policy-resilient capacity.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Gotion’s Slovakia project is another sign that gigafactory competition is shifting from pure cost to geopolitical resilience. For European automakers, Chinese-backed plants inside the EU offer cost-effective capacity but deepen strategic interdependence. The next question is whether Brussels and national governments will pair such investments with stronger upstream and recycling policies to secure the full battery value chain.

China Graphite Spherical Graphite Output Falls as Natural Anode Demand Weakens

China Graphite Group

China Graphite spherical graphite output fell in 2025 as weak demand from the natural graphite anode material sector and existing inventories pressured production. The Hong Kong-listed natural graphite producer produced 2,300t of spherical graphite during the year, down 28% from 2024.

The decline reflects a broader shift in China’s anode materials market. Battery producers are still expanding overall anode consumption, but natural graphite is losing share to artificial graphite because of performance and price competition.

China Graphite spherical graphite output weakness shows that battery material growth does not benefit all feedstock routes equally. Natural graphite remains important, but artificial anode materials are gaining ground because they offer stronger cycling life and rate performance for many lithium-ion battery applications.

Spherical graphite sales also fell in 2025, although less sharply than production. China Graphite sold 5,815t of spherical graphite, down 6.9% from a year earlier, suggesting the company partly relied on existing inventory to meet demand.

Artificial Graphite Competition Pressures Natural Anode Feedstock

China’s anode material shipments rose strongly in 2025, reaching 2.9mn t, up 39% from a year earlier. However, natural graphite anode materials moved in the opposite direction.

Natural graphite anode shipments fell to 210,000t in 2025, down 19% from the previous year. Their share of China’s total anode material shipments dropped to 7.2%, showing that natural graphite is becoming a smaller part of the domestic anode mix.

This matters directly for spherical graphite producers. Spherical graphite is a key processed feedstock for natural graphite anode materials. When natural anode production slows, spherical graphite demand weakens quickly.

China Graphite attributed the decline to price competition and lower output of natural graphite anode materials. The company also pointed to the shorter cycling life and weaker rate performance of natural graphite compared with artificial anode materials.

Artificial graphite has become dominant in China’s battery supply chain because many battery makers prioritise consistency, fast charging performance and long cycle life. These factors are especially important for electric vehicles and energy storage systems.

The result is a margin squeeze for natural graphite processors. Even when total battery demand grows, spherical graphite producers must compete against artificial graphite suppliers that are more closely aligned with mainstream cell performance requirements.

Flake Graphite Output Rises Despite Spherical Graphite Weakness

China Graphite’s upstream natural graphite flake business performed better than its spherical graphite segment. The company produced 57,600t of natural graphite flake in 2025, up 10.8% from a year earlier.

The increase was supported by equipment upgrades, showing that China Graphite improved mining or processing efficiency even as downstream spherical graphite demand weakened. Flake graphite sales also edged higher by 1.3% to 46,020t.

This creates a mixed operating picture. Upstream flake output increased, but downstream spherical graphite production fell sharply. The gap suggests that the company may need to manage feedstock allocation carefully if natural anode demand remains weak.

Natural graphite still has strategic value. It can support lower-cost anode production and remains important for battery supply-chain diversification. However, its competitiveness depends on purification, coating, consistency, performance and customer qualification.

For China Graphite, the next challenge is not only producing more flake graphite. It must defend its position in higher-value downstream graphite products as the anode market shifts toward artificial materials and more demanding battery specifications.

The company’s results also highlight a wider issue for natural graphite markets. Supply growth alone is not enough. Producers need downstream demand from qualified anode makers, battery customers and applications where natural graphite retains a cost or performance advantage.

The Metalnomist Commentary

China Graphite’s results show that battery demand growth is becoming more selective across the graphite value chain. Natural graphite suppliers must improve processing quality and downstream integration if they want to compete against artificial graphite in high-performance batteries.

CATL Rio Tinto Partnership Targets Mining Electrification and Battery Circularity

CATL

CATL Rio Tinto partnership plans could accelerate electrification across Rio Tinto’s global mining operations as the metals sector looks for practical ways to cut emissions. The two companies have signed a non-binding agreement to explore cooperation in battery technologies, system integration, recycling, and new energy solutions.

The CATL Rio Tinto partnership connects one of the world’s largest battery producers with a major global supplier of iron ore, copper, aluminium, and lithium. This creates a direct link between upstream resource extraction and the battery systems needed to decarbonise mining fleets, rail, and industrial energy use.

Rio Tinto wants to develop a zero-carbon mining model with global demonstration value. CATL will support that goal through its battery technology, energy system expertise, and experience in large-scale electrification.

Battery Systems Move Deeper Into Mining Operations

Mining electrification is becoming a strategic priority because diesel-powered equipment remains a major source of operating emissions. Battery systems can support electric haul trucks, heavy equipment, rail locomotives, site power systems, and charging infrastructure.

The collaboration could help Rio Tinto improve operating efficiency while reducing carbon intensity. Electrified mining systems may also lower fuel exposure, improve maintenance economics, and support customers that increasingly demand lower-carbon raw materials.

The agreement also reflects a broader shift in mining procurement. Large miners are no longer only buying equipment; they are building partnerships around batteries, energy management, recycling, and circular material flows. This gives battery companies a larger role in mining’s industrial transition.

Critical Minerals Circularity Becomes a Strategic Link

The CATL Rio Tinto partnership will also explore business models for battery materials recycling and critical minerals circularity. This is important because mining electrification will create new demand for lithium, copper, nickel, graphite, rare earths, and other battery-linked materials.

Circularity can help reduce waste and strengthen supply security. If battery materials can be recovered and reused across mining operations, companies can reduce dependence on fresh raw material inputs and build more resilient supply chains.

CATL and BYD are increasingly targeting partnerships with major miners and energy companies. CATL and BYD have already signed agreements with BHP to develop battery solutions for mining equipment and railway locomotives, while BYD has also agreed to work with Aramco on electric and fuel cell vehicle technologies.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Mining electrification is becoming a new battleground for battery companies, miners, and equipment suppliers. The strategic winners will be those that can connect mineral supply, battery deployment, recycling, and low-carbon operations into one industrial ecosystem.

XTC GEM CAM feedstock deal tightens China’s battery materials supply chain

XTC

XTC GEM CAM feedstock deal marks a major step in securing China’s high-end battery materials supply. Under the XTC GEM CAM feedstock deal, XTC New Energy will lock in large volumes of cobalt, nickel and lithium inputs. This XTC GEM CAM feedstock deal supports long-term cathode active material output for NCM, LCO and LFP product lines. As a result, Chinese battery makers gain greater visibility on costs and availability during a volatile raw material cycle.

Long-term CAM feedstock deal anchors XTC’s growth strategy

XTC New Energy agreed to purchase 150,000 t/yr of CAM feedstock from GEM between 2026 and 2028. The package covers cobalt chloride, nickel sulfate, cobalt tetroxide, NCM precursor and lithium salts for large-scale cathode production. This diversified basket reduces single-material risk and helps XTC balance different chemistries across consumer and power batteries. The deal also deepens an existing partnership, signalling confidence in GEM’s ability to deliver consistent quality volumes. Consequently, both companies move closer to a vertically aligned, closed-loop battery materials ecosystem.

XTC has rapidly grown sales of lithium cobalt oxide on the back of device replacement cycles and AI-enabled electronics. Government subsidies that push consumers to upgrade phones and tablets are boosting high-end cobalt-rich cathode demand. Meanwhile, combined sales of NCM and LFP cathodes also rose, reflecting broader growth across energy storage and EV platforms. By locking in feedstock now, XTC can support more aggressive volume and product planning with key OEMs.

China CAM feedstock integration deepens links with global battery OEMs

The agreement reinforces China’s position at the centre of the global CAM and precursor value chain. GEM will channel critical precursors to XTC, which already supplies ATL, Samsung SDI, Murata, LG Chem and BYD. These relationships span mid to high-end consumer devices and extend into power lithium battery producers like CALB and CATL. Therefore, the enhanced feedstock pipeline will indirectly underpin cell production for phones, tablets, EVs and stationary storage worldwide.

Tighter integration between feedstock suppliers and cathode producers can also stabilise pricing and contract structures. Long-term supply deals encourage joint planning on capacity, quality and sustainability metrics, important for global OEM qualification. At the same time, dependence on Chinese CAM feedstock raises questions for western policymakers about diversification and supply security. However, until alternative precursor hubs reach scale, China’s integrated CAM ecosystem will remain a critical anchor for lithium-ion supply chains.

The Metalnomist Commentary

This agreement shows how Chinese CAM producers and recyclers are quietly locking in the next wave of battery growth. As XTC and GEM align on volumes and chemistries, their joint leverage over cobalt, nickel and lithium flows will rise. For non-Chinese OEMs, the deal underscores the urgency of building competitive precursor and CAM capacity outside China.

Lithium-Ion Battery Copper Foil Shipments Surge as Ultra-Thin Products Gain Share

Copper Foil

Lithium-ion battery copper foil shipments rose sharply in 2025 as global battery production expanded and manufacturers shifted toward thinner materials to reduce copper costs. Global shipments reached 1.302mn t, up 41.7% from 2024, according to Chinese research institute EV Tank.

Lithium-ion battery copper foil demand remains closely tied to electric vehicle and energy storage growth. Copper foil is a key current collector in lithium-ion batteries, making it essential to cell performance, energy density and manufacturing cost.

Lithium-ion battery copper foil shipments were dominated by China, which accounted for 82.9% of global deliveries in 2025. EV Tank expects global shipments to reach 2.615mn t by 2030, implying continued expansion as battery output scales.

The product mix changed quickly during the year. The share of 8μm foil declined, while 6μm remained the mainstream product and accounted for more than 70% of total shipments.

Ultra-Thin Foil Gains Momentum on Copper Cost Pressure

Ultra-thin copper foil gained share as battery producers looked for ways to reduce copper input costs. Persistently high global copper prices pushed cell manufacturers to use thinner foil while maintaining battery performance.

The combined share of 5μm and 4.5μm ultra-thin foil rose to 24% in 2025. This is a major shift for a material category that requires tighter production control, better surface quality and stronger consistency.

Thinner copper foil can help reduce battery weight and improve energy density. It also lowers the amount of copper used per cell, which becomes increasingly important when copper prices remain elevated.

EV Tank expects 5μm and thinner foil to become a key material for high-end batteries. This reflects the industry’s move toward lighter, higher-energy-density cell designs.

However, thinner foil also raises manufacturing difficulty. Producers must control pinholes, tensile strength, elongation, surface roughness and coating compatibility more precisely.

That technical barrier could separate higher-end suppliers from lower-cost producers. As battery customers shift toward thinner grades, qualification and process reliability will become more important than simple capacity.

China Leads Supply as Competition Intensifies

China’s 82.9% share of global shipments shows its dominant role in battery copper foil supply. The country has built large-scale capacity around its lithium-ion battery ecosystem, supported by domestic EV, energy storage and cell manufacturing growth.

Competition intensified in 2025 as the market recovered and producers brought earlier-built capacity on line. This created a more fluid ranking among suppliers.

Longdian Wason ranked first with a 12.2% market share. Huachuang New Material followed after capacity ramp-ups lifted output and sales.

Defu Technology and Jiayuan Technology ranked third and fourth, respectively. Seven companies in the top 10 changed positions during the year, showing how quickly capacity, customer access and product mix are reshaping the sector.

Battery makers also increased procurement from second-tier suppliers to improve supply stability. This suggests buyers are trying to diversify supplier bases rather than rely only on leading producers.

For copper markets, the trend is strategically important. Battery copper foil growth creates a direct link between copper demand and battery technology. But the move toward ultra-thin foil also means battery growth will not translate into copper demand on a simple one-to-one basis.

The sector is therefore entering a more technical phase. Volume growth remains strong, but material intensity, foil thickness, supplier qualification and copper price pressure will all shape future demand.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The copper foil market shows how battery growth can lift copper demand while also forcing material thrift. High copper prices are pushing battery makers toward thinner foil, making technology and process control as important as raw capacity.

EU EV Transition Faces Energy Cost and Trade Policy Pressure

EU energy

EU EV transition plans are facing growing pressure from high energy costs, tougher global competition and a regulatory model that industry leaders say may be weakening Europe’s automotive position. Speakers at the FT Future of the Car Summit warned that Europe must rethink how it competes with China and other industrial economies.

EU EV transition policy has relied heavily on regulation, including the planned 2035 phase-out of new internal combustion engine car sales. But carmakers and suppliers argue that regulation alone cannot deliver a competitive electric vehicle industry if energy prices, subsidies and supply-chain costs remain unfavourable.

EU EV transition challenges are becoming more visible as Chinese automakers gain share in Europe, southeast Asia and Latin America. Chinese producers have built cost-competitive EV platforms through subsidies, domestic competition, supply-chain control and fast industrial scaling.

The debate matters for metals because slower or more expensive electrification can reshape demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnets. Automotive materials demand will still grow, but the path may become less direct and more exposed to policy choices.

China’s EV Scale Forces Europe to Rethink Trade Strategy

European automotive suppliers are calling for a more realistic approach to global competition. The industry is facing rivals that operate under different labour, subsidy and industrial policy conditions.

China has become one of the world’s strongest EV exporters. It accounted for around 40% of global EV exports in 2024, while leading Chinese brands have expanded aggressively with lower-cost, technology-rich vehicles.

This creates a competitive problem for European carmakers. Europe has focused on setting strict emissions targets, while China has focused on making EVs cheaper, scalable and export-ready.

Several industry executives now argue that collaboration may become unavoidable. Western manufacturers may need to partner with Chinese or other international competitors that already have a technological lead in EV platforms, batteries, software and power electronics.

This could change European supply chains. Rather than developing every technology internally, carmakers may increasingly combine European assembly and branding with externally sourced EV systems.

That strategy could support faster electrification, but it also creates dependence on imported components, battery materials and processed inputs. It may help automakers compete on cost, but it does not solve Europe’s strategic materials vulnerability.

Energy Costs Could Slow Consumer Adoption and Metals Demand

High charging and energy costs are another major barrier to Europe’s EV push. If consumers face much higher charging costs than drivers in China or other regions, the economic case for EV adoption weakens.

This is critical because EV demand is highly sensitive to total ownership cost. Batteries may become cheaper, but charging costs, highway tariffs and energy price volatility can still shape consumer decisions.

For battery metals, this matters directly. Slower EV adoption would reduce the speed of demand growth for lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese, especially in full battery electric vehicles with large battery packs.

Copper and aluminium remain better positioned across multiple automotive pathways. EVs require copper for wiring, motors, charging systems and power electronics, while aluminium supports lightweighting, battery enclosures and structural components.

However, Europe’s automotive metals demand will increasingly depend on which technology mix wins. Full BEVs support larger battery metals demand, while hybrids and lower-cost EV platforms could shift consumption toward smaller batteries, more electronics and continued use of conventional automotive materials.

The policy challenge is therefore industrial as much as environmental. Europe must reduce emissions while keeping manufacturing competitive, securing raw materials and lowering energy costs for consumers.

If Europe cannot align regulation, energy prices and trade strategy, its EV transition could become a market for imported vehicles rather than a platform for domestic industrial growth.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Europe’s EV problem is not only about regulation or consumer demand. It is about whether the region can build a cost-competitive industrial system around energy, materials, technology and trade before Chinese EV platforms define the market.

China's Gem Delivers Ultra-High Nickel NCM Precursors

GEM

Breakthrough in NCM Technology Strengthens China’s Battery Supply Chain

Chinese battery materials firm Green Eco-Manufacture (GEM) has achieved a major milestone by delivering its first ultra-high nickel content NCM precursors. The delivery, made by its subsidiary Jingmen Gem New Material on 7 April, marks the world’s first large-scale production of 9-series NCM precursors. These materials play a critical role in high-energy lithium-ion batteries, particularly for electric vehicles.

Gem plans to produce 3,000 tonnes per month of 9-series NCM precursors. This follows its successful commercialization of 8-series high nickel content precursors in 2022, signaling its leading position in the high-nickel battery materials market.

Indonesia Operations Drive Nickel Supply Security

To secure raw material feedstock, Gem has built 150,000 t/yr of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) capacity in Indonesia. In the first quarter of 2025, Gem shipped 25,000 tonnes of MHP, achieving over a 95% capacity run rate. The firm also aims to boost its high-nickel precursor production in Indonesia to 50,000 t/yr.

In November 2024, Gem signed a key agreement with PT Vale Indonesia (PTVI) to co-develop a high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) plant in Central Sulawesi. The facility will produce 66,000 t/yr of nickel metal equivalent MHP, further reinforcing Gem’s supply chain for battery-grade nickel.

China Boosts Imports of Indonesian Nickel

China’s dependence on Indonesian nickel continues to deepen. Imports of MHP from Indonesia surged 73% year-on-year to 258,709 tonnes in the January–February 2025 period. This growth stems from efficient production at Chinese-owned facilities in Indonesia, ensuring a steady flow of critical battery inputs despite global supply chain volatility.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Gem's advancement in ultra-high nickel NCM precursors reflects China’s growing command of the battery materials value chain. By integrating upstream supply from Indonesia and advancing precursor technologies, China is setting the pace in next-generation EV materials while reducing its dependence on traditional suppliers.

Automotive Raw Material Supply Chains Hit Localisation Limits

Automotive

Automotive raw material supply chains are becoming the main constraint on electric vehicle localisation as carmakers seek more control over strategic components. Automakers want regional supply chains, but battery metals, rare earths and processed inputs still depend on global mining and refining networks.

Automotive raw material supply chains have shifted from pure efficiency toward resilience, security and geopolitical risk management. The industry is no longer trying only to minimise cost. It is trying to protect production from export controls, licensing delays, trade restrictions and raw material shortages.

Automotive raw material supply chains therefore cannot be fully localised by assembling batteries, motors or electronics closer to vehicle plants. The deeper constraint sits upstream, where lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and rare earth materials remain tied to global extraction and processing capacity.

The result is a more selective supply-chain model. Automakers will regionalise the components they can control, while still relying on global raw materials for the minerals and refined products they cannot replace quickly.

EV Localisation Still Depends on Global Critical Minerals

Jaguar Land Rover has decided to control three critical parts of electric propulsion: battery assembly, electric drive units and energy management systems. This gives the company more control over the final systems that define EV performance.

However, vertical integration has limits. Even if an automaker controls battery assembly or electric drive units, it may not control the lithium chemicals, nickel sulphate, cobalt, manganese, graphite or rare earth magnets inside those systems.

Permanent magnet motors remain one of the clearest pressure points. Electric drive units depend on rare earth materials that are still heavily exposed to Chinese processing, magnet production and export licensing.

Obtaining magnet raw materials from China has become more difficult from a licensing perspective. This shows how export controls can affect vehicle production even when the final assembly line is located in Europe or the US.

Battery supply chains face the same structural problem. Automakers can localise pack assembly, module production and software integration, but raw material exposure remains global.

Lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese supply depends on mine locations, refining capacity, chemical conversion and government policy. These inputs cannot be made local simply by building a battery plant near an auto factory.

This changes the meaning of automotive localisation. The next phase will be less about full independence and more about reducing exposure to single-country bottlenecks.

Recycling and Traceability Become Strategic Tools

Critical minerals recycling is becoming a strategic issue for automakers, not only an environmental goal. Black mass recovery can eventually return lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper and other materials into the supply chain.

Recycling can reduce raw material exposure over time. But it depends on enough end-of-life batteries, reliable collection systems, safe transport, processing capacity and customer acceptance of recovered materials.

The UK’s critical minerals strategy reflects this reality. Domestic production, partner-country supply agreements and recycling can improve resilience, but full self-sufficiency is not realistic.

That point matters for manufacturers. Supply security will depend on diversified sourcing, trusted partners, recycling loops and traceable material flows rather than a complete break from global markets.

The shift will also affect pricing. Materials may increasingly carry value based on origin, regulatory acceptability, sustainability documentation and licensing risk.

A battery metal or rare earth input from a secure and traceable source may command a premium over lower-cost material with higher geopolitical or compliance risk.

For automakers, the strategic challenge is clear. They must control more of the EV system while accepting that critical mineral supply will remain globally contested.

For metals suppliers, the opportunity is also clear. Producers that can offer traceable, compliant and secure supply will become more valuable to automotive customers than suppliers competing only on price.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Automakers are learning that EV localisation stops where raw material dependence begins. The winners in automotive supply security will be those that connect local manufacturing with diversified minerals, recycling capacity and credible traceability.

Stellantis Alliance Nickel offtake agreement unravels as nickel prices slump

Stellantis

Stellantis Alliance Nickel offtake agreement is ending, underscoring how weak nickel markets are reshaping EV battery contracts. The Stellantis Alliance Nickel offtake agreement covered nickel and cobalt sulphate from Australia’s NiWest project but failed on key milestones. As a result, the Stellantis Alliance Nickel offtake agreement now joins a growing list of battery metal deals under pressure from low prices and tight funding.

NiWest delays expose battery metals project risk

Alliance Nickel and Stellantis agreed in 2023 to supply 170,000t of nickel sulphate and 12,000t of cobalt sulphate. The volumes represented around 40pc of NiWest’s forecast production, anchoring the project’s commercial foundation. However, low nickel prices and tighter financing conditions have slowed NiWest’s development and triggered missed contractual milestones.

Market conditions have turned sharply since the deal was signed. Oversupply from Indonesia and softer demand from EV and steel sectors have hit prices. The LME three-month nickel price has dropped nearly 40pc since May 2023, falling to $15,117.50/t by 7 November. In this context, long-term offtake commitments are harder to sustain for both miners and OEMs.

The termination becomes effective on 3 December, formally ending the 2023 agreement. For Alliance, the loss of a top-tier automotive anchor customer complicates project financing. For Stellantis, it removes a fixed nickel sulphate commitment tied to a project still at the development stage.

EV supply chains tighten standards on battery materials

Stellantis is also recalibrating its broader battery materials portfolio. Earlier this week, it cancelled a supply agreement with Australian battery materials supplier Novonix over product specification issues. This second cancellation highlights how automakers now demand tighter performance, quality and timing certainty from upstream partners.

Battery metal developers face a tougher landscape as OEMs pursue flexibility and risk diversification. Projects like NiWest must now compete not only on resource quality and ESG credentials, but also on cost resilience under low-price scenarios. Stronger balance sheets, staged developments and diversified customer bases will be critical to securing future offtake.

At the same time, OEMs remain under pressure to secure long-term critical mineral supply for electrification targets. Strategic partnerships will likely shift toward more advanced projects, integrated value chains, and suppliers with proven technical and financial execution.

The Metalnomist Commentary

The collapse of the Stellantis Alliance Nickel offtake agreement illustrates how quickly the battery metals balance of power can shift. When nickel prices slide and capital tightens, marginal projects and early-stage offtakes become vulnerable, even with blue-chip OEM partners. For miners, bankable projects now require true cost competitiveness and technical robustness, not just strong EV narratives.

ExxonMobil battery anode graphite deal signals new push into EV batteries

ExxonMobil

The ExxonMobil battery anode graphite deal marks a strategic shift toward advanced battery materials. The company will acquire the US assets and technology of Superior Graphite to gain a foothold in battery anode graphite. As a result, the ExxonMobil battery anode graphite deal aims to convert refining-derived carbon streams into higher value synthetic graphite products.

Synthetic graphite strategy builds on ExxonMobil refining strengths

ExxonMobil battery anode graphite deal execution leans heavily on the group’s refining skills and feedstock access. Synthetic graphite production can use carbon-rich streams from existing oil refineries, rather than rely on traditional mined graphite. Therefore, the company can integrate battery anode graphite manufacturing into current industrial sites with established utilities and logistics.

Producing synthetic graphite is also less labour intensive than conventional mining operations. This shift supports more predictable quality and supply for high performance battery anodes, especially for EV and energy storage systems. Meanwhile, Superior Graphite’s technology portfolio should help accelerate product qualification with cell manufacturers and automotive OEMs.

ExxonMobil expects demand for higher performance batteries and advanced graphite materials to grow significantly. As a result, the company views synthetic graphite as a natural extension of its downstream product chain. However, it still needs to prove that oil-to-anode economics can compete with incumbent graphite suppliers in Asia.

Energy transition focus must still compete for capital

The ExxonMobil battery anode graphite deal fits into a broader energy transition strategy built around familiar skill sets. The company is already investing in carbon capture, hydrogen and low-emission fuels that leverage existing process and project expertise. Therefore, battery anode graphite offers another pathway where ExxonMobil can combine scale, engineering and feedstock advantages.

Yet internal capital allocation remains disciplined and competitive. Management has repeatedly stressed that new technologies, including carbon capture and hydrogen, must compete with core oil and gas projects for investment. Likewise, the ExxonMobil battery anode graphite deal will need to deliver attractive returns against upstream and petrochemical options. This requirement could limit speed of expansion if market conditions or pricing weaken.

In addition, graphite remains a politically sensitive material within global battery supply chains. Western buyers seek alternatives to Chinese-dominated supply, but must balance cost, performance and ESG criteria. If ExxonMobil can demonstrate low emission synthetic graphite at scale, it may win premium contracts from OEMs under pressure to de-risk their anode sourcing.

The Metalnomist Commentary

ExxonMobil’s move into battery anode graphite shows how oil majors now seek value in critical mineral adjacencies rather than pure mining. Success will depend on whether integrated refinery-based synthetic graphite can match Asian competitors on cost and performance. Market participants should watch for offtake deals with cell makers, which will reveal how quickly this new graphite platform gains traction.

Volkswagen ID.4 Production Halt Shows US EV Demand Pressure

Volkswagen EV

Volkswagen ID.4 production in the US will end as the German automaker shifts its Chattanooga, Tennessee, plant toward higher-volume internal combustion vehicle output. The decision reflects weaker electric vehicle demand in the US and the need to protect North American manufacturing utilisation.

Volkswagen said the EV market continues to challenge the industry and requires measured decisions. The company will stop producing the ID.4 at Chattanooga and begin assembling the all-new second-generation Atlas from mid-April 2026.

Volkswagen ID.4 production has been strategically important because the model is the company’s top-selling EV in the US. However, the ID.4 sold 22,373 units in 2025, far below the Atlas, which sold 71,044 units and remained Volkswagen’s second-best-selling model for the past three years.

The decision shows how automakers are adjusting production footprints as EV adoption slows. US EV sales fell by 27% year on year to 216,300 units in the first quarter, creating pressure on manufacturers to rebalance plant capacity, dealer inventory and product planning.

Chattanooga Shift Prioritises Higher-Volume SUV Demand

The Chattanooga plant will now focus on the second-generation Atlas, a three-row sport utility vehicle with much stronger US sales momentum. This gives Volkswagen a clearer volume base in a market where larger SUVs remain commercially attractive.

The move is not a full retreat from the ID.4. Volkswagen said model-year 2026 ID.4 vehicles will remain available through current inventory, supporting US demand into 2027. The company also plans a future version of the ID.4 for North America, although details have not yet been disclosed.

Still, the production shift is significant. Automakers rarely remove capacity from a model unless demand, margin or manufacturing strategy has changed. In this case, Volkswagen appears to be choosing a higher-volume SUV platform over a slower-moving EV in the near term.

This reflects a wider industry trend. EV demand has become more uneven as consumers respond to vehicle prices, charging access, policy uncertainty and changing incentive structures. Automakers now need more flexible production strategies rather than relying on straight-line EV growth forecasts.

EV Slowdown Could Weigh on Battery Materials Demand

Volkswagen ID.4 production changes also matter for the battery materials supply chain. Lower EV output can reduce near-term demand for lithium, nickel, graphite, manganese, copper, aluminium and rare earth magnet materials linked to electric drivetrains and battery systems.

The effect will not come from Volkswagen alone. The bigger issue is that several automakers are reassessing EV production rates in response to slower consumer adoption. If this pattern continues, battery material demand growth may become more volatile than earlier industry forecasts suggested.

For suppliers, the shift creates a timing problem. Many battery, cathode, anode and recycling investments were planned around rapid EV market expansion. Slower model-level output can leave material producers exposed to weaker offtake, lower utilisation and price pressure.

At the same time, Volkswagen’s decision does not eliminate long-term EV demand. It shows that the transition may move in phases, with automakers balancing EVs, hybrids and combustion vehicles depending on regional demand. North America may therefore remain a more mixed powertrain market than China or parts of Europe.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Volkswagen’s ID.4 decision shows that EV strategy is now being tested by real factory economics. The energy transition is still moving forward, but automakers will increasingly prioritise models that protect utilisation, margins and supply-chain stability.

Stellantis Net Loss Shows Cost of Resetting EV Strategy

Stellantis EV

Stellantis net loss reached €22.3bn in 2025 as the global automaker absorbed major charges linked to a strategic reset in electric vehicles. The result highlights how quickly automakers are reassessing electrification plans as customer demand, regulation, pricing, and capital discipline change across the global auto market.

Most of the Stellantis net loss came in the second half of the year, when the company reported a €20.1bn loss. Full-year charges reached €25.4bn, largely tied to what Stellantis described as a profound strategic shift to better match customer demand and regulatory realities.

The company’s brands include Jeep, Peugeot, and Vauxhall. Net revenues fell by 2pc from 2024 to €153.5bn, as foreign exchange pressure and first-half pricing declines outweighed gains from volume and product mix.

EV Supply Chain Resizing Drives Heavy Charges

Stellantis net loss reflects the financial cost of scaling back EV ambitions after earlier expectations proved too aggressive. The company said the charges include product plan changes, EV supply chain resizing, warranty provision adjustments, and previously announced workforce reductions.

The reset shows that automakers are moving from rapid EV expansion toward more flexible technology portfolios. Stellantis now wants to focus on customers’ freedom to choose from a full range of vehicle technologies, rather than relying on a faster linear shift toward battery electric vehicles.

This shift carries major implications for battery materials, power electronics, component suppliers, and EV manufacturing investments. If automakers slow or rebalance EV programs, suppliers exposed to batteries, motors, lightweight materials, and dedicated EV platforms may face weaker demand visibility.

Automakers Rebalance Electrification and Balance Sheet Risk

Stellantis plans to return to profitable growth in 2026 after absorbing the cost of what management called over-estimating the pace of the energy transition. The company will not pay an annual dividend in 2026 and has approved up to €5bn in hybrid bond issuance to protect its balance sheet.

This balance sheet response matters because automakers need capital for multiple technologies at once. Battery EVs, hybrids, combustion platforms, software, emissions compliance, and regional manufacturing all compete for investment. The challenge is no longer simply building EV capacity; it is allocating capital across uncertain demand pathways.

For the wider automotive supply chain, Stellantis’ reset is a warning signal. Electrification remains a long-term direction, but the transition is becoming less uniform, more regional, and more financially disciplined. Suppliers must prepare for a market where hybrid, EV, and combustion demand coexist longer than earlier forecasts suggested.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Stellantis’ 2025 loss shows that the energy transition is entering a harder capital cycle. The winners will not be the companies with the boldest EV targets, but those that manage technology flexibility, supply chain exposure, and balance sheet risk with discipline.

Argentina Lithium Production Push Strengthens Critical Minerals Growth Strategy

Daniel Gonzalez

Argentina lithium production is accelerating as the country seeks to become one of the world’s leading suppliers of battery materials. Vice-minister of energy and mining Daniel Gonzalez said Argentina is now the fastest-growing lithium producer and expects the country to become the largest soon.

The government has raised Argentina’s estimated lithium reserves to 23mn t of lithium carbonate equivalent. It has also increased its copper reserve estimate by 3mn t since last September, strengthening the country’s position across two key energy transition metals.

Argentina lithium production is being expanded by companies including Rio Tinto, Ganfeng, Lithium Argentina and Posco. At the same time, the country is working to develop four greenfield copper projects that could create a new large-scale copper industry.

Lithium Growth Positions Argentina as a Battery Materials Powerhouse

Argentina’s lithium growth reflects the strategic importance of its brine resources in the global battery supply chain. Demand from electric vehicles, energy storage and battery manufacturing continues to support long-term interest in secure lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide supply.

The country’s larger reserve estimate improves its investment case. It gives developers, battery manufacturers and downstream customers more confidence that Argentina can support long-term production growth.

However, reserve scale alone will not guarantee success. Argentina must convert projects into reliable production, build infrastructure, manage water and permitting risks, and maintain stable rules for foreign investors.

Copper Ambition Adds Depth to Argentina’s Mining Strategy

Argentina is also targeting major copper growth. Gonzalez said the country aims to produce 1.5mn-2mn t of copper over the next five to seven years, supported by four greenfield projects now under development.

This copper ambition is significant because copper is central to grids, electrification, renewable energy, electric vehicles and industrial infrastructure. If Argentina can deliver new copper output, it could become a more important supplier to global energy transition supply chains.

The government is using tax incentives to attract investment. These include a lower income tax rate, no tariffs on imports, no export duties, and 30 years of regulatory and tax stability.

Still, investor confidence remains the key challenge. Argentina is trying to recover from years of policy volatility and economic mismanagement, while the cost of capital remains high. Lower financing costs will be essential if the country wants to move large lithium and copper projects from ambition to production.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Argentina has the mineral base to become a major lithium and copper supplier, but geology is only the starting point. The real test will be whether tax stability, investor trust and project execution can overcome the country’s long history of policy risk.

Antam Nickel Ore Output Surges as Indonesia’s Domestic Demand Drives Growth

Antam Nickel

Antam nickel ore output surged in 2025 to its highest level in more than a decade. The state-controlled miner produced 16.1mn wet metric tonnes of nickel ore. That was up 62pc from the previous year. As a result, Antam nickel ore output now reflects the strength of Indonesian domestic nickel demand.

The company’s sales performance was even stronger. Nickel ore sales rose 75pc year on year to 14.6mn wet metric tonnes. This shows that domestic downstream buyers absorbed much of the additional supply. Therefore, Indonesia nickel ore production continues to benefit from the country’s internal processing expansion.

This matters because Antam’s ore supports more than one value chain. Its nickel ore feeds domestic class two nickel production and the company’s own ferronickel operations at Kolaka. Consequently, Antam nickel ore output remains important to both external downstream users and its internal processing strategy.

Indonesian Domestic Nickel Demand Is Reshaping Antam’s Business Mix

Indonesian domestic nickel demand is clearly driving Antam’s ore growth. The company’s production surge shows how strongly local processors continue to pull feedstock into the domestic market. This supports Indonesia’s long-term policy of deeper downstream integration. As a result, ore production is becoming more strategically valuable than before.

However, Antam’s ferronickel business moved in the opposite direction. Ferronickel output fell 20pc to 16,064t in nickel metal equivalent. Sales almost halved to 10,528t in nickel over the same period. Therefore, Antam is seeing a widening gap between ore strength and ferronickel weakness.

The company said rule changes in minimum sales pricing largely caused that decline. That means the problem was not simply demand destruction. Instead, market rules affected the economics of ferronickel sales more directly. Meanwhile, all ferronickel sales were exported, mainly to South Korea, India, and China.

Antam Battery Ecosystem Project Adds a New Strategic Layer

The Antam battery ecosystem project gives the company a stronger long-term growth story. Its joint venture with CATL began construction in the fourth quarter of 2025. That project aligns with Indonesia’s ambition to build a full downstream EV battery chain. Consequently, Antam is linking ore production more directly to higher-value battery materials.

This development matters because it expands Antam’s role beyond mining and traditional nickel products. The company is now tied more closely to Indonesia’s battery industrialization strategy. That could improve its strategic relevance even if ferronickel remains under pressure. Therefore, the Antam battery ecosystem project may become more important than short-term alloy sales.

The broader message is clear. Antam nickel ore output is rising because Indonesia’s downstream nickel model still demands more feedstock. At the same time, product mix and pricing rules are shifting value across the chain. As a result, Antam’s future may depend more on ore and battery exposure than on ferronickel alone.

The Metalnomist Commentary

Antam’s results show how Indonesia’s nickel strategy is rewarding upstream ore suppliers tied to domestic processing. The weakness in ferronickel also shows that not every downstream segment benefits equally. If the battery ecosystem expands as planned, Antam could become even more central to Indonesia’s next nickel phase.